Werewolf XLVI Willy Wonka the game thread!!!! BAD GUYS WIN!!

[Passacaglia]

Yeah...again with this. Why not LSG? Hoops's vote for her put two on her...could have started a run.

[st.cronin]

Well, I'm obviously curious to see how LSG votes today. But I don't think there's been anything sinister in her votes or posts. Saldana, on the other hand, has been pinging my radar since the end of day 1.

[Passacaglia]

What happened at the end of Day 1?

[st.cronin]

I mean the way the vote played out, exactly what I talked about yesterday.

[saldana]

I mean the way the vote played out, exactly what I talked about yesterday.

i would pay real money to know what you are talking about.

my vote was nowhere near the end of the day on day one, and had no impact on "how the vote played out"

you have been after me all game with nothing to back it up.

vote st cronin

[Alan T]

I mean the way the vote played out, exactly what I talked about yesterday.

I think someone hit on this yesterday, but what do you mean about how the vote played out?

This was the vote in the early evening with plenty of time left:

chief rum (2)- barkeep, bulletsponge
saldana (2)- daddytorgo, ardent
daddytorgo (2)- hoopsguy, render
hoopsguy (1)- saldana
st cronin (1)- passacaglia
alant (1)- swaggs
passacaglia (1)- ntndeacon
lonestargirl (1)- chief rum

Obviously a 3 way tie between Chief, Saldana and DT, with several people left to vote and realisticaly anyone (even people without a vote) still at risk.

The following votes went:

#58 St Cronin votes Chief Rum (3-2-2)

Gave Chief (innocent villager) the lead with 3 people left to vote. With Chief having no ability to defend himself being at work (a well known issue), and it being day 1 and most good guys not having anything to go on to determine if they should even put their neck out to save him.

#61 LSG votes Chief Rum (4-2-2)

Basically puts the nail into Chief's coffin so to speak. Only 2 people left to vote, it would require someone moving a vote to save Chief now which is unlikely.

#67 Alan votes Saldana (4-3-2)

Brings things back closer, where its still possible for someone to change votes to save Chief, which is however unlikely for a good guy to do here.


Mr.W no vote.


--------------------------------------------------------

So I am curious about which part you are uneasy about the way the vote went.. Are you uneasy that Chief died as a good guy? You were the one who broke the tie and put him in the lead. Are you uneasy that someone protected DaddyTorgo by voting for either Chief or Saldana? If so, why vote for Sal here? Do you feel that LSG was protecting Saldana by voting for Chief there?

I guess I didn't understand your issue yesterday, and still don't understand today.. What about that vote are you actually using to point you to vote for Saldana here?

[Barkeep49]

I'll get in my vote early. I think cronin's moves, along saldana's line of thinking, have indeed been suspect. I think it's highly likely one of those two are a wolf and since I think it's more likely to be cronin I'll go that way for now.

Vote st. cronin

[Barkeep49]

Thanks Alan for giving the explicit reasoning behind what had been my unease.

[st.cronin]

Well, obviously nobody is catching on.

I'm Willy Wonka.

Night 1 I scanned Saldana. Last night I scanned LoneStarGirl. I will not vote for LSG. I will vote for Saldana until he's lynched.

[Alan T]

Fair enough then. Guess that explanation answers my questions about your beef with him.

Vote Saldana

[bulletsponge]

well thats good enough for me

Vote Saldana

yes im that easily swayed

[st.cronin]

You would think that somebody who was not under any pressure coming out firing first thing on day 2, and not backing off ALL DAY would maybe give you a clue.

[Alan T]

You would think that somebody who was not under any pressure coming out firing first thing on day 2, and not backing off ALL DAY would maybe give you a clue.

People do that all the time though. It might seem obvious to you as someone who has all of the facts, but to people who don't have all of the details, you are constantly analyzing what angle people are coming from.

This morning I had somewhat convinced myself that both you and Saldana were good, which apparently is incorrect. I had started to consider that the two wolves were Barkeep + Passacaglia. I just figured you had a hunch and were riding it strong with the lack of other data. (ie: so far up till now all of the "proof" for anyone's guilt has been sketchy. People made cases to lynch the one person who couldn't defend himself night 1, then night 2 lynched ntn for no other reason than they felt Swaggs was good?

[saldana]

Well, obviously nobody is catching on.

I'm Willy Wonka.

Night 1 I scanned Saldana. Last night I scanned LoneStarGirl. I will not vote for LSG. I will vote for Saldana until he's lynched.

this is a lie...i am not a wolf...i didnt want to do this but... i'm the bodyguard...the first night i guarded hoops, and while staying up, I saw someone out, headed for ardent's room...i was told they knew I was awake, but I didnt know who they were....i assumed since he came out after me yesterday that it was Cronin, but without proof, i didnt want to reveal myself, so i tried to get a push on him. obviously now i have no choice.

last night i guarded myself

lynching me will only kill the head oompa loompa

[st.cronin]

Alan the key point that should have tipped you off was that I never changed my vote, and then re-voted him first thing this morning. I almost always change my vote at least once a day.

Anyway. FWIW, I believe saldana is the brutal wolf, based on my pm. That's one reason I didn't reveal right away yesterday.

[Barkeep49]

Unvote st.cronin
Vote saldana

Well I knew something from the interaction was off. Too bad I read it the wrong way.

[Mr. Wednesday]

VOTE saldana

cronin, I think you were a little fast on the reveal there. Might have been able to get the vote through without outing yourself.

[st.cronin]

Maybe so, Mr. W. But I'm not going to be around at deadline today, and the only guy who voted with me yesterday was Barkeep, who actually said that he would have preferred to vote for me.

[Passacaglia]

I like cronin's story more than saldana's.

VOTE SALDANA

[Barkeep49]

Maybe so, Mr. W. But I'm not going to be around at deadline today, and the only guy who voted with me yesterday was Barkeep, who actually said that he would have preferred to vote for me.
I agree that that you revealed at an appropriate time cronin.

[ntndeacon]

wanders through mopping up

[Barkeep49]

wanders through propping up post count
Fixed that for you :)

[st.cronin]

I'm a threadkiller.

[hoopsguy]

My death is a threadkiller.

[LoneStarGirl]

I really wish Cronin would not have revealed so early...
And also, if Saldana is the brutal wolf I hope that the real bodyguard doesn't step forward yet.

vote Saldana

[LoneStarGirl]

Since I have been cleared by Cronin, whom most of you believe, I am going to look at people who voted for me tomorrow.

[Passacaglia]

Take a picture, it'll last longer.

[bulletsponge]

Since I have been cleared by Cronin, whom most of you believe, I am going to look at people who voted for me tomorrow.

now would be a good time to point out that i voted for the guy who wanted to lynch you yesterday ;)

[Passacaglia]

now would be a good time to point out that i voted for the guy who wanted to lynch you yesterday ;)

You can if you want, but you took a lot of heat for your vote, while mine made a lot of sense given the circumstances.

[RendeR]

I won't be here later.

VOTE SALDANA

[Barkeep49]

Since I have been cleared by Cronin, whom most of you believe, I am going to look at people who voted for me tomorrow.
What makes it more likely that a wolf votes for you verses a villager? I think voting patterns are more revealing:
A. Over time
B. Showing chronology
C. When examining a wolf

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE SALDANA

no reason to distrust cronin. His story sounds a lot better than sal's TBH. Sorry I havn't been active all day, it was a hectic afternoon of work.

[saldana]

i am surprised so many people are so willing to blindly follow cronin at his word...he is full of it, and you all are falling for it...good luck the rest of the game, you will need it.

[bulletsponge]

i am surprised so many people are so willing to blindly follow cronin at his word...he is full of it, and you all are falling for it...good luck the rest of the game, you will need it.

i might trust you more if it wasnt for your signature :rolleyes:

[Swaggs]

This made it easy.

Vote saldana

[LoneStarGirl]

now is just a waiting game... I think we can end today early. I have no doubt that Cronin was telling the truth

[Lathum]

writeup coming

[Lathum]

the day begins with saldana and st cronin picking up where they left off yesterday...at one another's throats.

the early tide seems to be turning against st cronin until, as he walks towards the group, he falls forward...and pops up, and with a tip of his hat announces that he is willy wonka.

there is more..not only does he tell you he is the eccentric owner of the chocolate factory, but he knows that, at the least, saldana is one of slugworth's spies, and maybe even slugworth himself.

one by one, the votes are tallied against Saldana, despite his protestations and assertions that he is the Oompa Loompa Lord.

you find Saldana alone in the Fizzy Lifting Drinks room and inform him that it is unanimous that he will be thrown out of the factory tonight.

once again a hidden door opens and the strange little orange men file into the room with you

oompa loompa doopity doo
we've got another puzzle for you
oompa loopa doopity donin
were you all wise to listen to cronin

what do you get when you find a bad guy
who walks among you spouting off lies?
one less evil man who pretends he's your pal
but he is not because Slugworth is Sal!

he was trying to steal stuff

oopma loompa doopity doo
cronin solved this puzzle for you....

suddenly the song is interrupted as Saldana, who had stood silent until now, grabs the nearest Oompa Loompa and in one motion snaps his neck. "Enough with the freaking songs already," he mutters, letting the dead body slump to the floor.

He then turns on St. Cronin. "You may have caught me trying to steal your secrets Wonka, but you've eaten your last everlasting gobstopper!!"

Saldana grabs Cronin by the back of the hair, pulling his head back. From his pocket he pulls a bottle marked "Fizzy Lifting Drink Concentrate - Extremely Powerful - Do Not Drink Unless Diluted", He drinks half of it himself, and shoves the other half into Cronin's mouth.

As he forces St. Cronin to swallow the liquid, he gulps, and almost instantly, both Saldana and Cronin soar upwards, their ascent accelerated by the exaggerated lifting power of the concentrate. You all have only seconds to get out of the small room before you hear a sickening series of splatters, as the remains of both Slughorn and Willy Wonka splash back to the floor after their bodies are shredded by the high speed ceiling fans.

Saldana was Slughorn

St. Cronin was Willy Wonka.

night 3 has begun. Deadline 8:00 AM EST

[Passacaglia]

Nice job taking one for the team, cronin.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Nice to get a wolf, but it's very unfortunate that it cost us our seer to do it.

[Barkeep49]

In a game this small we have to be willing to accept a 1-1 trade, I feel.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Oh, sure, I'm just sorry that we had a trade instead of getting a wolf straight out. (shrug)

And, he only cleared one other person for us.

[Barkeep49]

Yeah it's sad that we only got 1 OK out of the deal, I agree.

[st.cronin]

I'll be following along, good luck village.

[Lathum]

writeup coming shortly

[Poli]

Great guess on my part with saldana. I can't say I've ever been that lucky.

[Lathum]

You all wake in the morning to find one of you is missing. Swaggs hasn't come down for breakfast. You all rush to his room and find he has been strangled, a bright red licorice whip around his purple face.

day 4 has begun, deadkine 10:30 PM EST

[Swaggs]

Doh. :(

[Passacaglia]

Okay, so what have we got now?

My thinking is that we ought to look at saldana's defense. Saldana is an experienced enough player that it's not like he was totally coached, but he probably got some help from one of his fellow spies. Does his story sound like the same kind of story one of us would make up?

[Barkeep49]

I'm surprised, but pleased, that it wasn't LSG.

[Barkeep49]

Okay, so what have we got now?

My thinking is that we ought to look at saldana's defense. Saldana is an experienced enough player that it's not like he was totally coached, but he probably got some help from one of his fellow spies. Does his story sound like the same kind of story one of us would make up?
You really think someone as experienced as saldana is going to rely heavily on others?

[Passacaglia]

Not rely, but cooperate. I think he's experienced enough to discuss it with the rest of the group before making a decision. This may be a wild goose chase anyway, so I'm willing to drop it.

[RendeR]

THe real question isn't "was he helped/coached/cooperating" but....


"Hey pass the snozzberries!"



No wait...factory...dead people...Wonka assassinated...Slugworth tossed.....


So, like...Who voted in concert WITH saldana?

[Passacaglia]

I guess we also need to worry about the sympathizer.

[Barkeep49]

Ok I'm going to vote for a guy who has contributed nothing as far as I can tell, besides the occasional amusement, to this game.

Vote Render

[Passacaglia]

So far, my circle of trust contains LSG and bullet. I'm thinking that when he switched his vote from me to ntn, he really could have put a vote on cronin, which would have set him up to be lynched.

[Passacaglia]

Ok I'm going to vote for a guy who has contributed nothing as far as I can tell, besides the occasional amusement, to this game.

Vote Render

You think we have so little to go on that we're voting off the quiet ones?

[RendeR]

*shits a golden egg*



DUDE...what'd I do? I'm just here for the chocolate!

[Barkeep49]

You think we have so little to go on that we're voting off the quiet ones?
I certainly have a group I trust, though it is now smaller since Swaggs bit it. But I don't have any lingering suspicions on people. I am, however, more than willing to listen to others.

[RendeR]

Ok, how about this then:

Day 1, no clues to anyone, no access to information as a simple ticket holder, voted DT because he hadn't been voted for yet.

Day 2, still no real clue as to anyoneds ID, so I stuck with my day 1 vote and voted DT.

Day 3, Obvious knowledge of Saldana after Cronin outs himself, voted with everyone else to out the known Wolf.

What more am I supposed to contribute outside of Humor when you and Pass and Alan and..well almost everyone else toss theories around like a cat with a bad hairball, its much simpler to sit back and let you all shredd the convoluted logic than it is to actually jump into the mire and get lost in it along with you.

hence my post above asking "Who voted WITH saldana" to get us moving on the next wolf/wolves.

[Passacaglia]

I do regret leaving it so close because I would preferred to force a tie. Frankly I think the reasoning against NTN and Swaggs is little and think that saldana and cronin showed us far more. If I was willing to risk a tie my vote would have been with cronin who I trust less than saldana.

Hay Barkeep, since you're here, and I'm reading old posts -- can you explain this one? You said you you have preferred to force a tie, than you talk about what it would be like if you were willing to risk a tie. I'm not sure I understand the reasoning.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'll see if I can put anything together from the first three votes this afternoon, unless someone else beats me to it. (Probably nothing useful from yesterday directly, for obvious reasons...)

[Passacaglia]

Ok, how about this then:

Day 1, no clues to anyone, no access to information as a simple ticket holder, voted DT because he hadn't been voted for yet.

Day 2, still no real clue as to anyoneds ID, so I stuck with my day 1 vote and voted DT.

Day 3, Obvious knowledge of Saldana after Cronin outs himself, voted with everyone else to out the known Wolf.

What more am I supposed to contribute outside of Humor when you and Pass and Alan and..well almost everyone else toss theories around like a cat with a bad hairball, its much simpler to sit back and let you all shredd the convoluted logic than it is to actually jump into the mire and get lost in it along with you.

hence my post above asking "Who voted WITH saldana" to get us moving on the next wolf/wolves.

Looking back, Alan voted with saldana.

[Passacaglia]

Although I think all Barkeep is asking for is maybe an indication of your thoughts. Something like "this guy seems more right to me" or "his theory makes more sense" -- just to get an idea for what you're thinking. It's not going to condemn you or anything, you're going to be wrong several times a game -- hell, I was wrong in voting for LSG on Day 2, and bullet was wrong voting for ntn then, but he's still in my circle of trust.

[Barkeep49]

Hay Barkeep, since you're here, and I'm reading old posts -- can you explain this one? You said you you have preferred to force a tie, than you talk about what it would be like if you were willing to risk a tie. I'm not sure I understand the reasoning.
No problem. I'd have preferred to vote for cronin on Day 2. However, with the uncertain tie breaking mechanism I decided it was not worth the risk and went with my second choice, saldana. Not sure if this makes me look good or bad, but that was the thought process.

[Passacaglia]

Maybe I'm misreading the first sentence of that post I quoted -- doesn't it say you would have preferred a tie?

[RendeR]

Although I think all Barkeep is asking for is maybe an indication of your thoughts. Something like "this guy seems more right to me" or "his theory makes more sense" -- just to get an idea for what you're thinking. It's not going to condemn you or anything, you're going to be wrong several times a game -- hell, I was wrong in voting for LSG on Day 2, and bullet was wrong voting for ntn then, but he's still in my circle of trust.

Oh I understand his question, I think I'm just being testy today. Had a tennis amtch last night and hurt my hip, I'm old and in pain =)

makes me a grumpy candy-fiend.

[Alan T]

What more am I supposed to contribute outside of Humor when you and Pass and Alan and..well almost everyone else toss theories around like a cat with a bad hairball, its much simpler to sit back and let you all shredd the convoluted logic than it is to actually jump into the mire and get lost in it along with you.

hence my post above asking "Who voted WITH saldana" to get us moving on the next wolf/wolves.

What theories have I been throwing out? I got attacked by Saldana day 1, and simply defended myself.

Looking back, Alan voted with saldana.

Wern't you accusing me of being in league with Cronin against Saldana earlier, even though it was Saldana who had voted for me and I hadn't once accused him? You can't get your story straight about me at all. If you go back to look, I didn't vote with Saldana at all. I voted for him on day 1, and on day 2 he was voting for me when I voted for Cronin, and then later switched his vote to vote -with- me.

I guess you had advanced knowledge that Saldana was bad and Cronin was good though. I'm sorry but my PM didn't include that information for me to go on.

If we have 2 wolves left, my guess are that Passacaglia and Barkeep are the two wolves. If its only 1 wolf left, I'm leaning towards it being Barkeep right now.

[DaddyTorgo]

Well...I'm around. As far as what I am thinking moving forward...I agree that it makes sense to at least do the standard "vote analysis" on him and see if we can gain anything from that, although TBH I think with the knowledge of that and how we go about it so out there it becomes less effective. Not ineffective, but less effective.

Cronin+Swaggs+LSG were/are the the three people that I had trust for in this game so far, and 2/3 of them are dead. So I can say that I won't be voting for LSG.

Other than that, there hasn't been anything incredible that has...pinged my radar. Little things, but I doubt any of them lead up to anything...stuff like Alan being quieter than normal (which i attribute to the baby), RendeR being a goof, a long layoff probably making my reads on everyone a little wonky.

[DaddyTorgo]

and just as I post that, Alan comes out with some analysis. LOL.

Analysis which I guess I can see the reasoning for with Pass. Not quite as sure I see it with Barkeep, but I've been a bit out-of-sorts, so let me go back and reread at some point.

[Passacaglia]

What theories have I been throwing out? I got attacked by Saldana day 1, and simply defended myself.



Wern't you accusing me of being in league with Cronin against Saldana earlier, even though it was Saldana who had voted for me and I hadn't once accused him? You can't get your story straight about me at all. If you go back to look, I didn't vote with Saldana at all. I voted for him on day 1, and on day 2 he was voting for me when I voted for Cronin, and then later switched his vote to vote -with- me.

I guess you had advanced knowledge that Saldana was bad and Cronin was good though. I'm sorry but my PM didn't include that information for me to go on.

If we have 2 wolves left, my guess are that Passacaglia and Barkeep are the two wolves. If its only 1 wolf left, I'm leaning towards it being Barkeep right now.

Dude, all I did was answer Render's question -- just trying to get him to open up. If I really felt suspicious of you, I would have said more than that.

[Passacaglia]

Why did so many people trust Swaggs so much? I've seen both Barkeep and DT say that, but I'm not sure where you guys are getting it from?

[Barkeep49]

Why did so many people trust Swaggs so much? I've seen both Barkeep and DT say that, but I'm not sure where you guys are getting it from?
Based on how the voting went down, with his being on the block but voting against someone with no votes rather than voting for someone who would have tied him for the vote lead.

[DaddyTorgo]

Based on how the voting went down, with his being on the block but voting against someone with no votes rather than voting for someone who would have tied him for the vote lead.

".

[Passacaglia]

Hmm. I'm not sure I would have come to that conclusion -- obviously, since I didn't. I guess that's moot, though, since Swaggs was trustworthy and isn't around anymore anyway.

[Alan T]

Day 1:

lonestargirl (1)- chief rum
chief rum (4)- barkeep, bulletsponge, st cronin, lonestargirl
saldana (3)- daddytorgo, ardent, AlanT
passacaglia (1)- ntndeacon
daddytorgo (2)- hoopsguy, render
hoopsguy (1)- saldana
st cronin (1)- passacaglia
alant (1)- swaggs

not voted Mr. Wednesday

Night kill: Ardent

Day 2:

saldana (2)- cronin, barkeep
cronin (2)- alant, saldana
hoops (1)- lsg
daddytorgo (1) - render
swaggs (2)- mr. w, ntn
lsg (2) - pass, hoops
ntn (3) - swaggs, torgo, bullet


Night kill: Hoopsguy


Day 3:

Irrelevant

Night kill: Swaggs

[Alan T]

Render Has voted for daddytorgo two of the three days, and I don't even remember his reason for it. DT also seems unphased and hasn't retaliated in voting or as far as I remember even conversation. Maybe I just don't remember that fully.

Good or bad, Bullet has voted for the person who has died every day so far.

DaddyTorgo's moves haven't made much sense at times to me, but seem irrational enough to not be a bad guy from what I am guessing (based on gut feelings alone)

Mr.W missed the first vote, and I don't really remember alot of his stance so far this game. Hard for me to get a read on him one way or another.

The big one for me is:

Barkeep could have put Saldana on the block with me on Day 1 but chose not to. In fact he event stated the race was between Chief and DT, leaving Saldana out of it entirely. Barkeep switching his vote over to Saldana there after I had voted would have lynched Saldana, but he only seemed interested in switching if it was for DT. However the next day he comes out stating he distrusted Saldana and Cronin and ended up voting for Saldana even though he could have killed him the first day if he had voted with me.

Vote Barkeep

[Passacaglia]

Thanks for that, Alan. I think that moves DT up in my estimation.

[DaddyTorgo]

Render Has voted for daddytorgo two of the three days, and I don't even remember his reason for it. DT also seems unphased and hasn't retaliated in voting or as far as I remember even conversation. Maybe I just don't remember that fully.

Good or bad, Bullet has voted for the person who has died every day so far.

DaddyTorgo's moves haven't made much sense at times to me, but seem irrational enough to not be a bad guy from what I am guessing (based on gut feelings alone)

Mr.W missed the first vote, and I don't really remember alot of his stance so far this game. Hard for me to get a read on him one way or another.

The big one for me is:

Barkeep could have put Saldana on the block with me on Day 1 but chose not to. In fact he event stated the race was between Chief and DT, leaving Saldana out of it entirely. Barkeep switching his vote over to Saldana there after I had voted would have lynched Saldana, but he only seemed interested in switching if it was for DT. However the next day he comes out stating he distrusted Saldana and Cronin and ended up voting for Saldana even though he could have killed him the first day if he had voted with me.

Vote Barkeep

Alan,

My only "move" was the moving of my vote off Swaggs based on his vote making me strongly believe he was innocent. Day 1 I voted for Saldana (although I claim no knowledge or anything) based on my joking statement that ignited a furor.

As for why I havn't responded to RendeR continuing to vote for me...I figure he's a harmlessly misguided golden ticket holder and I'm not going to blast him for that. I can address it if needs be whenever, I just don't feel endangered by it ATM. I'm not sure that I've been especially irrational. Maybe not quite as "wild-theory-slinging" as I have been in the past. Guess those weeks off kinda dampened that for a bit.

Good point about Barkeep. Nice deep analysis. Each individual piece doesn't seem to add up to anything, but taken together it sure does appear that they paint a picture linking Barkeep & Saldana.


VOTE BARKEEP

[Passacaglia]

I'm with you Alan, that I can't explain DT's moves either, but I look at his vote for NTN, and think that if he were allied with saldana, he would have offed cronin.

[DaddyTorgo]

I think I'm still trying to get a handle on things after the layoff, ya know? Kludge my mind back into WW-mode.

[Passacaglia]

I'm not ready to put in a vote on Barkeep, but I do want to note that his vote for saldana right at the deadline seems like one that was made knowing it wouldn't really have an effect on the outcome.

[LoneStarGirl]

Right now I am leaning towards Alant over Barkeep. I dont remember at exactly what time Alant voted for Saldana, but I think it was after I put the nail in Cheif's coffin. Then on day two he votes for Cronin....

I am going to vote now because Comcast turned our cable off last night so I wasn't able to get on after 9 last night but I will get on later and change it if need be.

vote alant

[Passacaglia]

Right now I am leaning towards Alant over Barkeep. I dont remember at exactly what time Alant voted for Saldana, but I think it was after I put the nail in Cheif's coffin. Then on day two he votes for Cronin....


For the record, the same argument could be made against barkeep. His vote for saldana was way way closer to the deadline than Alan's, and ntn had a two-vote lead.

[DaddyTorgo]

what moves have i made that people aren't understanding? feel free to be specific and i will explain my reasoning

[Passacaglia]

what moves have i made that people aren't understanding? feel free to be specific and i will explain my reasoning

I didn't mean to say I can't understand them -- just that I can't explain them as well as you. You're pretty high on my trust list now.

[Barkeep49]

Alan my opinions changed on saldana and cronin based on the early morning stuff. I simply did not get a chance to see the late developments and as such was not around at deadline to possibly influence the vote. Frankly I think you sound rather bitter that I didn't follow your lead more than anything.

[DaddyTorgo]

I didn't mean to say I can't understand them -- just that I can't explain them as well as you. You're pretty high on my trust list now.

okay. thanks. i was starting to get a lil agitated. I don't feel that I've been super-unpredictable in my normal-style this game, so I was wondering what I had done that had people confused. All of my moves have been (I thought) sound, even a little prescient with the vote for saldana on D1.

[Alan T]

Right now I am leaning towards Alant over Barkeep. I dont remember at exactly what time Alant voted for Saldana, but I think it was after I put the nail in Cheif's coffin. Then on day two he votes for Cronin....

I am going to vote now because Comcast turned our cable off last night so I wasn't able to get on after 9 last night but I will get on later and change it if need be.

vote alant


LSG, thats not entirely accurate. Go back and check the thread and look at the conversations more than just the votes. I stated right after you voted my thoughts about it being a Chief run away. I stated I was going to vote one of the two (Saldana or DT) to try to keep things close with over an hour remaining and 4-6 people around at the time and until the deadline.

Barkeep was the only one who responded to it, and completely left Saldana out of the mix, giving the impression he'd move his vote to DT if I voted for DT also, but didn't mention Saldana at all there. I even call Barkeep out for that and because I found that fishy, went with Saldana for my vote with 25 minutes left, plenty of time for any of the people around to move their vote. No one did at all.

[Barkeep49]

Alan you insist you called me out, except I never saw the post where you called me out on it since I wasn't around for deadline. Why was the fact that I viewed DT and CR as more ominous on day 1 such a hangup for you? I mean it's really like you're offended that we didn't all, or at least me, just follow you lockstep.

[Alan T]

I am not offended at all. I am just stating why I feel you are the most suspicious to me right now :)

[Passacaglia]

Alan you insist you called me out, except I never saw the post where you called me out on it since I wasn't around for deadline. Why was the fact that I viewed DT and CR as more ominous on day 1 such a hangup for you? I mean it's really like you're offended that we didn't all, or at least me, just follow you lockstep.

Can you explain why you did view DT and CR as more ominous? It's not a hangup, but it seems surprising to have a view like that so early.

[RendeR]

Seeing that I only add amusement to the game and am a pretty ovbious Ticket Holder by virtue of, well, absolutely no information coming to or from me in any way, I think barkeep is looking for an easy kill by targeting me so quickly today.

To that end:

VOTE BARKEEP

[RendeR]

Can you explain why you did view DT and CR as more ominous? It's not a hangup, but it seems surprising to have a view like that so early.


The easiest answer to this would be that he is another wolf and went after people he may somehow have known were not.

[Barkeep49]

Seeing that I only add amusement to the game and am a pretty ovbious Ticket Holder by virtue of, well, absolutely no information coming to or from me in any way, I think barkeep is looking for an easy kill by targeting me so quickly today.

To that end:

VOTE BARKEEP
Why shouldn't you add information? I mean your posts are amusing but that hardly seems like an adequate reason to keep someone around.

[Barkeep49]

The easiest answer to this would be that he is another wolf and went after people he may somehow have known were not.
Why is that the easiest answer?

[RendeR]

Oh and to clarify for anyone that hasn't caught on yet:

I voted DT the first two days because A) I knew nothing about anyone and B) I got his name to work in my rhymes. ;)

[Barkeep49]

Can you explain why you did view DT and CR as more ominous? It's not a hangup, but it seems surprising to have a view like that so early.
I found CR's targeting of LSG to be suspicious.

DT's somewhat wacky posts seemed out of character.

I'm not saying I had strong feelings, not like in the saldana and cronin case, which is why I completely dropped DT as a suspect after D1. But I did admit to having feelings.

[RendeR]

Why is that the easiest answer?


Nature of the beast. if you are truly a wolf, you go hunting. SImple really.


And to answer your other question its not that I "shouldn't" be adding information its that I had no information TO add, I can't pull valuabl;e data out of my ass, if I could do that I'd be the vice-president.

[Barkeep49]

Nature of the beast. if you are truly a wolf, you go hunting. SImple really.


And to answer your other question its not that I "shouldn't" be adding information its that I had no information TO add, I can't pull valuabl;e data out of my ass, if I could do that I'd be the vice-president.
So why is that an easier explanation than what a villager would do? I just fail to see how my D1 play is more wolfish than villager. Perhaps my inability to reason it out is because I know I'm a villager and conducted it as a villager play.

And not to belabor the point too much but I think you can pull information out of no where. It's called analysis. That is supposedly why you like voting for me, based on the one Alan T did. It was faulty but it was information out there.

[Barkeep49]

What, btw, does killing me do tomorrow when I come up a villager? How does that help the good guys win the game? I don't think voting for me has any real upside outside of the chance that I'm a wolf.

[Passacaglia]

What, btw, does killing me do tomorrow when I come up a villager? How does that help the good guys win the game? I don't think voting for me has any real upside outside of the chance that I'm a wolf.

Is that statement false for anyone else?

[Barkeep49]

Is that statement false for anyone else?
I'm sort of working on it. I think it would be more true about people who have larger COTs.

[Passacaglia]

I'm sort of working on it. I think it would be more true about people who have larger COTs.

I'm intrigued..

[bulletsponge]

ok just caught up...

[bulletsponge]

after lookinbg at day 1 votes, the early vote on Saldana rings my wolf alert. Daddytorgo voted fairly early for saldana, knowing that he could easily change his vote later with virtually no repicusions if he needed to. but if he didnt need to it wouldnt look bad to be the first to vote for a wolf on day 1 (if him or saldana were discovered it would make the other look less suspicious).
i know if i was a wolf id have 1 vote for another wolf, so in future referal you could have it to fall back on "hey look a wolf tried to get me killed day 1". maybe its just me being overly suspicous but im voting for him

Vote Daddytorgo

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'm sort of working on it. I think it would be more true about people who have larger COTs.

Who are they?

Aside from LSG (for obvious reasons), we don't seem to have much trust in the game right now. Is there any way that we can build some trust in someone else?

There's not much that jumps out at me from looking at the votes that have been cast. Everybody's been really spread out, we have five different people voting for saldana on day 1 and day 2 (no repeats). Looking at votes involving known innocents is even less helpful: we have CR voting for LSG, nobody voting for ardent, and only saldana voting for hoops. I suppose maybe we could look at the voters on the two lynches, although that's seldom of much help -- only bulletsponge voted for both of them, with DT and Swaggs also on ntn and barkeep plus known good cronin and LSG alson on CR.

[RendeR]

BARKEEP:Try to remember what I posted. I'm not basing my vote off of anything other than your quick jump on my apparently easy to spot villager-ness this morning. Alant's analysys, while intriguing, really didn't sway me much in any direction.

As for pulling data out of nowhere and calling it analysis, you're wrong, doing that is called : Assumption.

You can't make any hard and pat cases without solid evidence. day's 1 and 2 were clearly shots in the dark and it cost us a number of villagers. day 3 there was enough actual evidence to condem the main wolf and that still cost us Willy Wonka.

Never Assume.

[Mr. Wednesday]

As far as what's being pushed today, we have Alan pushing Barkeep (but Alan always pushes somebody) and now bulletsponge pushing DT. Not a whole lot of action.

[DaddyTorgo]

I miss willy wonka. and so does my candy-loving tummy.

can I get a refund??

[Mr. Wednesday]

Try to remember what I posted barkeep. I'm not basing my vote off of anything other than your quick jump on my apparently easy to spot villager-ness this morning.
Enlighten me, how is your villager-ness easy to spot?

(To answer a question you asked earlier, nobody voted in lockstep with saldana, and only Alan ever voted for the same person as him. Wolves are pretty good at not voting together, though...)


(Meta-note: I deleted the bit about flailing about on day 1, but that's the nature of the beast in WW games, we rarely have any info to cast a worthwhile vote on day 1. The vast majority of the time, someone good gets whacked for no reason at all. We're actually incredibly lucky that Wonka got Slugworth as quickly as he did, the odds were not in favor of him getting someone on night 1.)

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'm stepping out for a little while, I'll be back before the deadline.

[LoneStarGirl]

Anybody have a vote count? I dont know if I am going to move my vote off of Alant because I really dont think it matters. It seems Barkeep is getting offed tonight unless something happens

[LoneStarGirl]

I was thinking the last couple of games I played with Bullet he was very playful and posted a lot. Not so much this game... maybe that is something to look at

[RendeR]

Enlighten me, how is your villager-ness easy to spot?



Inane posts for nothing more than humor, no real information or finger pointing but not avoiding conversation when directed at me.

I'm an open book man, read the pages of my golden ticket, just don't bend them, it tickles.

[bulletsponge]

I was thinking the last couple of games I played with Bullet he was very playful and posted a lot. Not so much this game... maybe that is something to look at

back it up with a vote sweetcheeks :mad:

[Barkeep49]

Inane posts for nothing more than humor, no real information or finger pointing but not avoiding conversation when directed at me.

I'm an open book man, read the pages of my golden ticket, just don't bend them, it tickles.
Here's the thing that gets me: This would make you a very hard wolf to spot.

I'm keeping my vote on Render and think that we should go that direction if only because he's made very clear that:
1. We won't get any information from him
2. He isn't willing to do analysis suggesting that it is little more than assumption

I'm a villager so I will try and save myself, but I think Render is a better choice today than I am.

[LoneStarGirl]

we are very slow tonight. I was hoping somebody besides alant would try to convince me to change my vote

[Barkeep49]

we are very slow tonight. I was hoping somebody besides alant would try to convince me to change my vote
I've made my case for Render. I'd be happy to join you on AlanT if it means saving me. It seems to me we have some missing votes so hopefully it'll pick up in the next couple of hours.

[Passacaglia]

I've got my eye on RendeR too, but as I don't know his style of play well (does he usually do this kind of thing?), I'm not ready to vote on him yet.

VOTE BARKEEP49

[DaddyTorgo]

very slow night. That's an interesting point about RendeR for sure Barkeep. Do we have a vote-count?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Inane posts for nothing more than humor, no real information or finger pointing but not avoiding conversation when directed at me.
Great way to play as a wolf, except for the fact that people get kinda annoyed at some point when you're not pulling your weight. (Or, if you are a wolf, not pretending to pull your weight.)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Right now I am leaning towards Alant over Barkeep. I dont remember at exactly what time Alant voted for Saldana, but I think it was after I put the nail in Cheif's coffin. Then on day two he votes for Cronin....

You were asking to be dissuaded by someone other than Alan, so I'll try to weigh in on his behalf. Yeah, voting for saldana after CR was ahead looks like it could be an attempt to build trust, but on day 2, there was nothing more than vague hints from cronin that suggested he might be Wonka (and I avoided mentioning anything about it because it wasn't exactly the sort of thing we wanted to be broadcasting to the spies/wolves).

So you've got a day 1 vote, which is pretty thin evidence considering how seldom you can get useful info from day 1.

Now, having said all of that, I don't have any particularly better ideas, and nobody's given me any since the last time I was in discussion.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I've seen what the case for RendeR is, and I'm not sure I buy it given that he's at least tried to make some headway today. Is there anything more than feel against Barkeep?

[Barkeep49]

You were asking to be dissuaded by someone other than Alan, so I'll try to weigh in on his behalf. Yeah, voting for saldana after CR was ahead looks like it could be an attempt to build trust, but on day 2, there was nothing more than vague hints from cronin that suggested he might be Wonka (and I avoided mentioning anything about it because it wasn't exactly the sort of thing we wanted to be broadcasting to the spies/wolves).

So you've got a day 1 vote, which is pretty thin evidence considering how seldom you can get useful info from day 1.

Now, having said all of that, I don't have any particularly better ideas, and nobody's given me any since the last time I was in discussion.

I thought by the morning of Day 2 that it was clear that one of either cronin or saldana was Wonka and played accordingly. I read the situation wrong, but I think it was pretty clear that we had a wolf and seer in that group so I think I deserve some credit for that. And also think that this exonerates me as I'd have killed cronin if I were a wolf that night. I think my posts from Day 2 support the assertion I just made.

[Barkeep49]

I've seen what the case for RendeR is, and I'm not sure I buy it given that he's at least tried to make some headway today. Is there anything more than feel against Barkeep?
Yes. The fact that I didn't vote for saldana on Day 1 (or even view him suspiciously) but then had him as one of my top 2 on Day 2. If I'd voted on Day 1 he could have died.

My response is that I was not around at the end and thus couldn't be swayed by Alan against saldana. Not to mention it was really when cronin and saldana started posting with each other that I figured out what was likely going on.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'm not a huge fan of the choices here. I'd vote for Alan after my defense of him turned out to be a little more halfhearted than I expected, but I don't feel especially strongly that he's a wolf, and I don't want to lose one of our few remaining catalysts for discussion. If I've got to choose between Alan, Barkeep, and RendeR for someone to lose at this point, I'd choose the last, which is a little unfortunate because I don't really want to run off the new guy either.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I thought by the morning of Day 2 that it was clear that one of either cronin or saldana was Wonka and played accordingly. I read the situation wrong, but I think it was pretty clear that we had a wolf and seer in that group so I think I deserve some credit for that.
How do you mean that you read the situation wrong? You were right that cronin was Wonka, judging by your vote.

[Lathum]

I just got home from work. Does anyone have a vote count?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Eh, doesn't look like it's going to matter anyway.

VOTE RendeR

[Mr. Wednesday]

Lathum, no vote count that I've seen.

Since it doesn't look like anything more is happening, I'm out until after deadline.

[Alan T]

I just got home from work. Does anyone have a vote count?

Not me, I just got done working myself and trying to catch up. I think its close between Render and Barkeep right now, but not sure who or how many.

[Alan T]

I got this:

(2) Render - Barkeep (305), Mr.W (380)
(4) Barkeep - Alan (327), DaddyTorgo (329), Render (343), Passacaglia (370)
(1) Alan - Lonestargirl (333)
(1) Daddytorgo - Bulletsponge (356)

[Barkeep49]

Alan I hope you take heat tomorrow.

[Barkeep49]

Let me amend that. I actually hope Alan, DT, and to a lesser extent Render, take heat tomorrow. Don't forget we've been fooled before by first time players who are wolves.

[Alan T]

Alan I hope you take heat tomorrow.

I'll accept whatever consequences occur out of this. I feel confident about my reasoning I gave today.

[Lathum]

deadline

[Lathum]

YOu all gather around, wondering if this madness will end soon.

Just as they have in previous night the oompa loompas appear seemingly from nowhere, except they are armed with tasers, apparently taking no chances after last night. They are apparently in no mood to sing either.

The majority point to barkeep and he is quietly escorted from the factory without incident.

Barkeep was an ordinary golden ticket holder.

Night 4 has begun. Deadline 8:00 AM EST.

(2) Render - Barkeep (305), Mr.W (380)
(4) Barkeep - Alan (327), DaddyTorgo (329), Render (343), Passacaglia (370)
(1) Alan - Lonestargirl (333)
(1) Daddytorgo - Bulletsponge (356)

[Poli]

Welcome to the good guy party, barekeep. :(

[DaddyTorgo]

dammit.

sorry 'keep. Alan's reasoning seemed solid when I read it earlier. I'll go back and take another look at it, see if there's anything there though.

[Barkeep49]

Welcome to the good guy party, barekeep. :(
It's more fun in here!

[LoneStarGirl]

I was really afraid that was going to happen

[bulletsponge]

hmmmm, im suspicious of 1 person now. i dare not say his name, for if he is a villager i will surely die tonight and he will take the blame

[RendeR]

MEh, I was wrong in my reaction to barkeep's early vote against me, sorry dude.

Frankly, I'm about clueless now. I really felt in my gut barkeep was a puppy.

back to square one for me.

[Lathum]

YOu all wake up in the morning expecting another gruesome death, but everyone is present and acconted for. Maybe things are looking up.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Maybe, but it could as easily be a sympathizer hit.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Anyway, off to bed, catch y'all tomorrow.

[Passacaglia]

YOu all wake up in the morning expecting another gruesome death, but everyone is present and acconted for. Maybe things are looking up.

But is it still Night 4, though, or has the title just not been updated?

[Passacaglia]

Maybe, but it could as easily be a sympathizer hit.

I'm not sure what that means. The sympathizer probably would have come into play when saldana died, and I can't see that taking up the entirety of the spies night actions, anyway. There has to be something going on -- I'm especially weirded out by Lathum posting the night results at 1 am, then editing his post (*shun*) at 6 am, which was still before deadline.

[Alan T]

I saw his post this morning when I woke up around 6am, and the only change as best I can tell is that he simply colored it red. (It wasn't red before when I looked at it).

My guess from this result is either one of two things happened:

1) Bodyguard blocked the attack
2) Sympathizer was attacked and converted last night.

I'm hoping it is #1, but my guess is either of these could have led us to the result we saw.

[Passacaglia]

I saw his post this morning when I woke up around 6am, and the only change as best I can tell is that he simply colored it red. (It wasn't red before when I looked at it).

My guess from this result is either one of two things happened:

1) Bodyguard blocked the attack
2) Sympathizer was attacked and converted last night.

I'm hoping it is #1, but my guess is either of these could have led us to the result we saw.

Oh, now I see what MrW was saying about a sympathizer hit. But still -- why the early reveal? I guess maybe Lathum just wasn't going to be around at this time?

Hey -- isn't sal the bodyguard? Sal -- did you block an attack? ;)

[DaddyTorgo]

i think we have to assume it was the sympathizer being converted (we don't know the mechanism for that) unless/until the BG tells us otherwise (note that in NO way am i advocating the BG revealing, just saying...we must assume worst-case scenario till we know otherwise).

that being said...do we continue down the track that we were on today, or look towards those who might have been potential conversion candidates?

[DaddyTorgo]

why the early reveal? I guess maybe Lathum just wasn't going to be around at this time?

maybe lathum sleepy-sleepy?

[Alan T]

i think we have to assume it was the sympathizer being converted (we don't know the mechanism for that) unless/until the BG tells us otherwise (note that in NO way am i advocating the BG revealing, just saying...we must assume worst-case scenario till we know otherwise).

that being said...do we continue down the track that we were on today, or look towards those who might have been potential conversion candidates?

Out of curiosity, what track were we on today? I'm not sure where to begin.

I'm leaving in about 15 minutes to drive 2 hours to see my daughter graduate kindergarten, then driving 2 hours back, so I'll likely not be here during most of the day. I don't have really a good feel on anyone right now. We saw how good my gut instinct was on Barkeep. I feel the same way about Passacaglia, where he just doesn't sit right with me, as well as Mr.W right now.

I feel ok about Render, feel ok about Daddytorgo, and have no feel one way or another about Bullet right now. guess since I messed up yesterday I'll wait and see what others bring today.

[Passacaglia]

i think we have to assume it was the sympathizer being converted (we don't know the mechanism for that) unless/until the BG tells us otherwise (note that in NO way am i advocating the BG revealing, just saying...we must assume worst-case scenario till we know otherwise).

that being said...do we continue down the track that we were on today, or look towards those who might have been potential conversion candidates?

I don't think looking at potential conversion candidates will be useful. We might as well go with what we know, rather than guess about who might have converted.

[DaddyTorgo]

Out of curiosity, what track were we on today? I'm not sure where to begin.

I'm leaving in about 15 minutes to drive 2 hours to see my daughter graduate kindergarten, then driving 2 hours back, so I'll likely not be here during most of the day. I don't have really a good feel on anyone right now. We saw how good my gut instinct was on Barkeep. I feel the same way about Passacaglia, where he just doesn't sit right with me, as well as Mr.W right now.

I feel ok about Render, feel ok about Daddytorgo, and have no feel one way or another about Bullet right now. guess since I messed up yesterday I'll wait and see what others bring today.


I'm not really sure what track we were on either. I guess the Barkeep/RendeR type track is sort of what I was thinking. Might make sense to think about who the sympathizer could be or something though?

I know I said "targeted for conversion" above, and that's not how the sympathizer mechanic works, but you get the idea. Not sure how helpful an idea it was, what with there being no element of choice to it it's probably useless. I dunno. Blame that on me not having finished my first cup of coffee.

I don't necessarily want you to summarize why you feel good about RendeR Alan as I know you have to leave in a second. Hopefully I get a chance to go back and read through posts and see if I can come up with the reason why, especially since he's been voting me for like...everyday so far. But I guess that's enough to turn my attention elsewhere for the moment.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'd count a sympathizer hit (if one occurred) as luck with the wolves just trying to remove someone.

[Passacaglia]

The problem is -- how do we look at RendeR? What is there to look at?

[Lathum]

don't take the early post or the edit as anything interesting. We ere having storms and I was worried we could lose power so I wanted to post. During the storms my dog woke me up and I checked the thread and realized I hadn't shaded the post red.

[DaddyTorgo]

The problem is -- how do we look at RendeR? What is there to look at?

that's what worries me and befuddles me. makes a vote for him easier to stomach than a vote for most others.

[Passacaglia]

DT, you have any thoughts on Wednesday? Other than RendeR, he's the one I'm having most trouble reading.

[DaddyTorgo]

DT, you have any thoughts on Wednesday? Other than RendeR, he's the one I'm having most trouble reading.

Wednesday at least has contributed some analysis on different things. TBH I havn't really given it much of a look...I will do so today and see if I can't get some sort of a read on him.

It seems at first glance though that he's playing a typical Wednesday game. I do recall liking some of his analysis the other day, which pieces of it I couldn't tell you without looking back (and i'm trying to deal with the nightmare of migrating our mailboxes to a hosted exchange solution right now so i can't look back right).

like i said, i'm not sure why alan trusts render, I want to go back and look at that a little and see if I can figure that out.

[LoneStarGirl]

I dont know why we aren't focusing on Alant. He is the one that led the brigade against Barkeep. Didn't Barkeep say when he dies make sure we look at Alant? Or did he say somebody else?

[DaddyTorgo]

I dont know why we aren't focusing on Alant. He is the one that led the brigade against Barkeep. Didn't Barkeep say when he dies make sure we look at Alant? Or did he say somebody else?

valid point. we have been largely spectacularly unsuccessful this game. perhaps he is steering us away from things? maybe not...but maybe. it's at least worth a thought.

we all have short memories...people always say "look at so-and-so" and we all never do.

[DaddyTorgo]

at this point i feel like...with a likely conversion (we assume) everything is worth a shot. hell, you could have been converted LSG. Alan could have been converted. Really anyone. Which to some degree puts us back at square 1 I guess?

Yesterday I wouldn't have said that Alan was bad. But after the night...who knows. I don't have a read on him yet. Everyone goes back to square 1 in my book at this point, which is why conversions are so difficult (again, assuming we had one and not a BG block).

[Passacaglia]

To be fari, barkeep mentioned a whole slew of folks -- AlanT, DT, and RendeR. I guess my thought was that we're all kind of aware of Alan, but taking our time with him, since he said he's going to be out for a while.

[Lathum]

I won't be home until close to the deadline if someone is able to keep track of votes that would be great.

Also any ideas for weekend play are welcome. I can play through since I don't work tomorrow.

[Passacaglia]

Vote count:

No problem, Lathum! Glad I could help!

[DaddyTorgo]

Vote count:

No problem, Lathum! Glad I could help!

hahaha

[DaddyTorgo]

Vote count:

No problem, Lathum! Glad I could help!

hahaha

[bulletsponge]

ok i just caught up. it seems nothing is happening. thats more worrisom than if something did happen

[Mr. Wednesday]

Well, we didn't really learn anything new about day 1 or day 2 votes from knowing that Barkeep is a good guy. He was the first onto CR on day 1, the only one (besides cronin) to vote for saldana on day 2, and nobody voted for him on either day.

[Passacaglia]

I don't agree that we don't learn anything -- I think we have to start looking at Alan -- he already made some odd moves before yesterday, then yesterday's result has to cast more suspicion on him.

[bulletsponge]

I don't agree that we don't learn anything -- I think we have to start looking at Alan -- he already made some odd moves before yesterday, then yesterday's result has to cast more suspicion on him.


like what? sorry i have bad short term memory

[LoneStarGirl]

I agree on the Alant thing. I dont know when I will be back tonight after dinner and a movie so I am going to go ahead and vote now.

vote Alant

[Passacaglia]

like what? sorry i have bad short term memory
The biggest thing is that he got things going on Barkeep yesterday, who turned out to be good. Not necessarily a wolf move -- I think it's too early in the game for Alan as a wolf to lead the charge on someone early in the day. Although, he's been on my radar since his vote for saldana at the end of Day 1 -- seems like it could have been a throw-away vote, knowing that he's free to vote for a wolf. That's not a lot to go on, but I don't have more on anyone else -- I've got BS, DT, and LSG in my circle of trust, and the rest I just don't have much read on.

I see Alan has a vote on him already, so I'm going to nominate another candidate. If I come back in the evening, I'm willing to change my vote based on what happens.

VOTE RENDER

[Alan T]

I am going out to the movies tonight. If people want to vote me for being wrong, then I understand.

My gut feel was wrong yesterday, but don't really have anything else to go on so I will rely on it again today.

Vote Passacaglia

[bulletsponge]

man im confused. whos bandwagon should i jump on?
well i think LSG is most likely a GTW, so shes less likely to intentionaly target a villager. also i dont trust alan T

Vots Alan T

[bulletsponge]

dola thats Vote Alan T

[RendeR]

I'll turn into a chocolate sheep and vote with the majority:

VOTE ALAN T

[DaddyTorgo]

back from work and finally online and all. Catching up now. placeholder.

[DaddyTorgo]

not too much to catch up on. Gonna summarize a vote count

Render - (1) Pass
Alan T - (3) LSG, Bullet, Render
Pass - (1) Alan

TO VOTE: Mr. W, DT

I need to think...need to go and do some post-analysis

[Mr. Wednesday]

I can't really blame Alan too much for starting things on Barkeep yesterday... he's active, and he plays hunches on people. The odds say that those are going to be wrong more than they're right, particularly when we don't have a lot of information.

However, as I noted yesterday, my defense of his voting record was not as strong as I expected, and I don't have a whole lot to go on. So I will join with the pack and,

VOTE Alan T

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE RENDER

I've been dancing around it for days, and now finally I have some support. Dunno if it will be enough, but it's the vote I'm most comfortable with. He's been strange all game to me.

[DaddyTorgo]

not too much to catch up on. Gonna summarize a vote count

Render - (1) Pass
Alan T - (3) LSG, Bullet, Render
Pass - (1) Alan

TO VOTE: Mr. W, DT

I need to think...need to go and do some post-analysis


Render - (2) Pass, DT
Alan T - (4) LSG, bullet, RendeR, Mr. W
Pass - (1) Alan T

[Mr. Wednesday]

I just noticed, we've got four votes on Alan, which given the distribution of people looks a little suspicious. If anybody is up for shifting the vote, I'm on board with you.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, I should say, given the possible wolf/villager numbers, looks a little suspicious.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Double dola, I'm not going to move my vote to RendeR right now, because I don't want a tie.

[DaddyTorgo]

well i'm around, but i'm no help obviously.

[Alan T]

Unvote Passacaglia
Vote Alan T

Don't take this vote the wrong way. In no way am I "giving up" the game so to speak. I hate it when people self vote out of anger or frustration, I think it is unsporting. This vote is none of those things. I fully accept my fate for being wrong for yesterday. I however am just a normal golden ticket winner, and we don't lose a special role with me dead. Like it's been said before, I play my game based on hunches, sometimes wrong, sometimes right. My hunch is that render is more important to keep around, and I don't think the vote should switch to him from me even if people felt it was a good idea.

I'm sad no one else decided to vote a different direction, but at this point, I'll risk my game on my hunch that he is good.

[Alan T]

I see that things are really exciting here tonight!

[DaddyTorgo]

Unvote Passacaglia
Vote Alan T

Don't take this vote the wrong way. In no way am I "giving up" the game so to speak. I hate it when people self vote out of anger or frustration, I think it is unsporting. This vote is none of those things. I fully accept my fate for being wrong for yesterday. I however am just a normal golden ticket winner, and we don't lose a special role with me dead. Like it's been said before, I play my game based on hunches, sometimes wrong, sometimes right. My hunch is that render is more important to keep around, and I don't think the vote should switch to him from me even if people felt it was a good idea.

I'm sad no one else decided to vote a different direction, but at this point, I'll risk my game on my hunch that he is good.


sorry alan. If my vote could change things...I think I had puzzled together earlier the whole render+you thing. I'm probably still wrong about it. But I wanted to hear more from you about why you trusted him and thought he was good and when I didn't (which was fine...RL intrudes we all know) I went ahead in that direction, as RendeR's play has still bee weird to me. I don't know that there's a way I can change my vote for the better...but if there is...I'm open now that you have confirmed my general line of thinking.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Well, I made an offer.

The problem I'm seeing at the moment is, if you and I both go to RendeR, you're saved, but we're back in the same situation that has me worried now, with four votes on one person.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, and right now, we don't have enough people to do anything more than force a tie on someone else, which is something I prefer not to do.

[DaddyTorgo]

and render is not the direction to go either, according to alan. not a direction he'd support Mr. W

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE COUNT FOR LATHUM

Alan (5) - LsG, bullet, RendeR, Mr. W, Alan T
RendeR (2) - Pass, DT

[Alan T]

sorry alan. If my vote could change things...I think I had puzzled together earlier the whole render+you thing. I'm probably still wrong about it. But I wanted to hear more from you about why you trusted him and thought he was good and when I didn't (which was fine...RL intrudes we all know) I went ahead in that direction, as RendeR's play has still bee weird to me. I don't know that there's a way I can change my vote for the better...but if there is...I'm open now that you have confirmed my general line of thinking.

I will be happy to explain after game the reasons I have for feeling Render is good. Right now I would rather not, and heck I might be completely wrong/fooled here.

Well, I made an offer.

The problem I'm seeing at the moment is, if you and I both go to RendeR, you're saved, but we're back in the same situation that has me worried now, with four votes on one person.


You see, but thats not what I want. I would rather be voted out than him. My preference would have been for people to have voted for someone else, but everyone hopped on the "Easy" target, being me due to my mistake yesterday. When we do that, both yesterday and today it makes it easy for the wolves to blend in.

[DaddyTorgo]

in light of what you implied Alan...to prevent any type of wolf-trickery

UNVOTE RENDER

[Mr. Wednesday]

You see, but thats not what I want. I would rather be voted out than him.
At this point, I'm not really happy with either of you, for reasons I stated, but nothing's changing unless there's a late appearance from pass, LSG, or bulletsponge.

[Alan T]

At this point, I'm not really happy with either of you, for reasons I stated, but nothing's changing unless there's a late appearance from pass, LSG, or bulletsponge.

Thats a pretty easy statement to make when you've been sitting back and letting others make the mistakes the entire game. I'm not sure who the last wolves are, but my guess is you and Passacaglia, and possibly Bulletsponge.

A small part of me thinks LSG might be the sympathizer and was converted last night due to her leading the charge on me, but the more I think about it, the more I realize she does that somewhat often in these games to me and has always been wrong. She likely is just guessing wrong about me the way I did about Barkeep yesterday.

[Alan T]

Ahh well, any hows. Good luck good guys. I'll be following along :)

[DaddyTorgo]

good luck? no fireworks?

last words of advice alan? so that's your list there hmm?

[DaddyTorgo]

deadline :-(

[Mr. Wednesday]

Thats a pretty easy statement to make when you've been sitting back and letting others make the mistakes the entire game.
Was I sitting back and letting others make mistakes when I noticed that the vote total on you looked suspicious and suggested a move to someone else? I often don't jump on people early when there's not much information, it's the way I play.

[Lathum]

deadline

[Alan T]

good luck? no fireworks?

last words of advice alan? so that's your list there hmm?

No great advice here. All I have had since Cronin's death has been hunches. I said the other day that Barkeep and Pass seemed the strongest wolves to me, and haven't changed that much. I still feel Pass could be a wolf. Pass, Bullet and Mr.W are my strongest thoughts.. but I honestly have no clue. I am what I said however, just a normal boring ordinary golden ticket holder.

Luckily I don't really eat much candy, so this tour bored me anyhows! :)

[Lathum]

You all decide AlanT must pay for his past mistakes. Alan agrees and when the oompa loompa's appear he says " don't bother singing,
I'll go quietly"

As soon an AlanT is ushered out DaddyTorgo grabs Render and throws him in the great chocolate river and holds his head under until no more bubbles come up.

At the sametime bulletsponge grabs lonestargirl and shoves a packet of poprocks and a can of sprite down her neck. She begins to foam at the mouth as he stomache explodes. Mr. Wednesday grabs Passacaglia and shoves blueberry gum into his mouth. He expands until he explodes, reighning juice on every one.

The three left run through the factory and break in Willy Wonka's secret files, making the eccentric candy makers secrets their own.

BAd guys win!!

[Lathum]

thanks for playing everyone. All feedback is welcome, it was nice to be playing again

[Alan T]

Ahh, well looks like I was 2/3 right. unfortunatly it wasn't my first two choices. :(

[DaddyTorgo]

RAWR!!!!

[Mr. Wednesday]

W00t!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Just curious, Alan, what made you suspicious of me today?

[Alan T]

So anyways, I pretty much had guessed that Render was the bodyguard.

I couldn't figure out who the duke was and guessed that Mr.W was the Sympathizer.

Was I close on those?

[DaddyTorgo]

sorry Mr. Alan

[Alan T]

Just curious, Alan, what made you suspicious of me today?

I wasn't suspicious of you as much as just ruled out most of the others. I didn't figure LSG, Render or DT were bad (I was wrong on DT obviously), I read into how Pass played this game a bit differently than I remember him in many games and think it affected me a bit too much in thinking he was evil.

[Mr. Wednesday]

bulletsponge was the sympathizer, I was wolf from day 1.

[DaddyTorgo]

I assumed from what you were saying that RendeR was the bodyguard too Alan. Couldn't figure out who the duke was...we were having fits thinking it might be you here at the end.

bullet was actually the sympathizer. and you all know the night we converted him was just last-night.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Of course, on the last day, you pretty much had 50/50 odds to identify one of us. :)

[Alan T]

Of course, on the last day, you pretty much had 50/50 odds to identify one of us. :)


If only I had 6 or 7 more days I would have figured you all out!

[DaddyTorgo]

don't feel bad Mr. Alan.

DT played a very strong game I thought.

[Lathum]

So anyways, I pretty much had guessed that Render was the bodyguard.

I couldn't figure out who the duke was and guessed that Mr.W was the Sympathizer.

Was I close on those?

wrong.

LSG was the bodyguard and Pass was the duke.

The game really shifted when LSG failed to send in a protect order night 2 and later told me she was gonna protect hoops that night. She would have identified one of the attackers with a succesfull block.

[DaddyTorgo]

baaaad baaaaaaaad LSG!!

thanks though!!

i don't think the game was unbalanced per se, but I think that obviously the side of good failed to utilize all their special roles to their full ability/got unlucky with them. cronin finding the brutal wolf was a rough turn of events too, it would have been much better 2-3 days later when he'd have more to deliver than just a 1:1 tradeoff. Although I guess Pass would have likely duked to RendeR tonight and it would have ended up the same anyways.

[Mr. Wednesday]

The game really shifted when LSG failed to send in a protect order night 2 and later told me she was gonna protect hoops that night. She would have identified one of the attackers with a succesfull block.
Wow.

That would have slaughtered us if she hadn't merely confirmed cronin's ID of saldana.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, and given that she would ID one attacker, I think the balance was probably about right.

[RendeR]

Wow, very well played by the bad guys, and one slipup probably cost us the early loss, but hey, it happens.

I'm intrigued at how you guys come up with your theories early on. I played my hand as it was dealt, open and honest, trying to play the role of a happy go lucky ticket holder. I found it interesting to see the suspicion jump to me fairly quickly.

great Game Lathum!

[DaddyTorgo]

same thing happens to everyone early RendeR...a few more games under your belt you start to see things and have more insight.

a lot of "theories" are basically just...gut feelings backed up by flimsy circumstantial evidence.

[Passacaglia]

heh, I kind of forgot I was the duke. I don't think I would have used it for RendeR, though. I was pretty suspicious of Alan as well.

[Passacaglia]

Damn, DT and BS totally had me snowed with that ntn vote. What made you guys do that?

[LoneStarGirl]

yah this was a terrible game for me to be bodyguard.

Night two I wanted to protect hoops but it never went through, before I even viewed the thread that morning I messaged lathum and told him I wanted to protect hoops but it was at 10 in the morning so it was too late. That really was the turning point. The funny thing is is that I was VERY suspicious of DT I just didn't know how to say it... I had myself blocking him tonight because I wanted to see if he went out to kill. GRRRRRR

[Passacaglia]

Wow, very well played by the bad guys, and one slipup probably cost us the early loss, but hey, it happens.

I'm intrigued at how you guys come up with your theories early on. I played my hand as it was dealt, open and honest, trying to play the role of a happy go lucky ticket holder. I found it interesting to see the suspicion jump to me fairly quickly.

great Game Lathum!

I don't play often, so I didn't know it was your first game until quite a ways into it. After a while, things click a little more. You just let your mind wander, and see what crap comes up. Or at least that's what I do -- that probably has a lot to do with why my circle of trust contained two wolves! :) But anyway, it's more fun when you put yourself out there.

[DaddyTorgo]

pass...we weren't on the same team then. We just converted BS last night.

awww...suspicious of lil ole me LSG? awwwww.

I'm not sure how our kill-mechanism worked, who actually did the kills, so I don't know how that would have played out.

[Passacaglia]

Interesting. Seems like you, sal, and BS were all up in each other's grills that day. Thought it might have been nicely crafted.

[DaddyTorgo]

nope. But maybe he thought some of us were wolves and was trying to get attention so he could be converted? you'd hafta ask him on that

[Alan T]

The reason I thought Mr.W was the sympathizer is I figured they would go after someone who was quieter and not as likely to get lynched. Since Mr.W was one of the only ones left that fit that category, I figured he could have been a night target and ended up being the sympathizer

[st.cronin]

I will never understand why people don't send in conditional orders. "Hey, werewolf gm, I'm not sure if I'm going to be online tonight, so if you don't hear from me, protect player x."

I also don't get why people don't throw out placeholder votes - failure to do that I think contributed to Barkeep being lynched.

[saldana]

a) very nice game lathum, thanks

b) i cant believe i got scanned on night 1. we were 99 percent sure that was what had happened first thing in the morning when cronin voted for me with no explanantion...i thought it was pretty obvious...the only reason we didnt kill him that night was because we thought it was obvious enough that he would have been protected by the bodyguard. the entire time, we had planned on pressuring him enough on day 3 to force him to reveal, just to make sure I got to go brutal on the right guy. it was just good luck for us that the pressure came from barkeep, and we were able to keep outselves separted from one another.

c)for those conjecturing about bullets activities early in the game...he was the sypmathizer, and was only a wolf for the last day of the game...it started as me, DT, and Mr. W, who both carried on excellently after my rather messy demise.

[st.cronin]

It was a total fluke that I scanned saldana on night 1. My usual seer strategy is to scan people that haven't gotten votes, but I somehow overlooked your name when looking at the vote totals for day 1.

In retrospect, I probably should have played a quieter game, I didn't really do the village much good with my moves.

[Barkeep49]

I just want to say that DT made not one but two posts where he basically said he was a wolf, first on Day 1 and then yesterday.

[Mr. Wednesday]

In retrospect, I probably should have played a quieter game, I didn't really do the village much good with my moves.
I think the only mistake was sorta kinda hinting at the seer thing when voting saldana. Both saldana and I picked up on it.

[Alan T]

I think the only mistake was sorta kinda hinting at the seer thing when voting saldana. Both saldana and I picked up on it.

Whatever its worth, thats why I thought he wasn't the seer because it felt too obvious to me, and I guess part of me let that be what led me to wondering if he was fishing for the real seer. Thats why I moved to Cronin instead of saldana the next day, I guessed Cronin was the brutal wolf, and hoped if I went after him early, he might pick me to kill off as opposed to someone more important.

[Barkeep49]

Whatever its worth, thats why I thought he wasn't the seer because it felt too obvious to me, and I guess part of me let that be what led me to wondering if he was fishing for the real seer. Thats why I moved to Cronin instead of saldana the next day, I guessed Cronin was the brutal wolf, and hoped if I went after him early, he might pick me to kill off as opposed to someone more important.
My thinking was less developed than this but along this line as well which is why I sided towards wanting to vote for cronin over saldana.

[saldana]

i will say that i derived a certain amount of pleasure from watching everyone wonder what was going on the day after i died...whenever i am a wolf, i try to make sure when i die that i leave a certain amount of confusion behind me.

[LoneStarGirl]

I just want to say that DT made not one but two posts where he basically said he was a wolf, first on Day 1 and then yesterday.

Which posts were these and how come I never pick up on that crap?

[saldana]

Which posts were these and how come I never pick up on that crap?

i remember reading them and saying to myself "why did he post that...he is gonna get himself lynched"

[Passacaglia]

So was that a total slip up by DT, or just a bad joke?

[DaddyTorgo]

So was that a total slip up by DT, or just a bad joke?

bad joke. Honestly...bad joke. I didn't read CR's thing carefully and just wanted to play on the "saldana's a girl" thing in order to put a vote on him.

[Lathum]

bad joke. Honestly...bad joke. I didn't read CR's thing carefully and just wanted to play on the "saldana's a girl" thing in order to put a vote on him.

I was surprised DT did hat on day one. I have seen people get lynched for far less on day one.

[Poli]

Sigh.

[DaddyTorgo]

I was surprised DT did hat on day one. I have seen people get lynched for far less on day one.

aaah but see I had a feeling I wouldn't be lynched. I think in all the games i've played i've only been lynched early...once?

[LoneStarGirl]

I know who I will be voting for day 1 in this next game :D