Predict the #1 Movie this (and every) Weekend

[Pyser]

i did a dynasty like this a few years ago, and had some fun with it. pretty simple idea. just predict the #1 movie for the weekend (in most cases, fri-sun), and how much you think it will make. seems simple. proved to be hard.

ill try and post the movies that open each week, to help out. everyone is free to predict.

for bigger movies that open midweek i remember we did stuff like predict the thursday take, 5 day weekend take, and overall take. we'll have to do a better job following up.

but on we go.

[Pyser]

opening this week:
Kung Fu Panda
You Don't Mess with the Zohan


i'm going kung fu panda, assuming all the mom's already saw sex and the city.

$48-million.

[Pyser]

kung fu panda made $60-million.

but whats shocking is zohan made 40 mil. even though it looks horrendous. go figure.

opening this week:

The Happening
The Incredible Hulk

one has the stink of a failed hulk movie on it just 5 years ago. the other has the stink of m. night's last couple movies. tough choice. will pick later this week.

[korme]

Incredible Hulk 45 mil
The Happening 35 mil

[Pyser]

part of me says families want to go see something, which would lead to the hulk winning. and part of me says an r rated horror movie loses some of its teen audience

but i cannot root for the hulk to win after bombing just a few years ago.

happening - 37m at #1

[Swaggs]

The Happening's results should be interesting.

On the one hand, I can see a solid opening weekend followed by a steep drop off if the movie is a stinker like his releases have been.

On the other hand, maybe folks will sit it out on the opening weekend and wait and see (as a result of the recent releases), which could give it a low opening weekend and then a solid run.

Either way, I would go with the Hulk because this is probably the first weekend that most kids are out of school and there will probably be a lot of beach/vacation viewings for families.

I'll go with:

The Hulk - $40M
The Happening - $26M

[Pyser]

results:

1. The Incredible Hulk $54,538,000
2. Kung Fu Panda $34,321,000
3. The Happening $30,500,000

[Pyser]

2 comedies opening this week (makes no sense to me, but, whatever)

The Love Guru
Get Smart

my initial thought is Get Smart. money coming later.

[korme]

Damn, Get Smart is this weekend? I had no idea. I must see it.

[Pyser]

i forgot to predict but i havent cheated anywhere

get smart 44m

[Pyser]

1. Get Smart $39,155,000
2. Kung Fu Panda $21,700,000
3. The Incredible Hulk $21,557,000
4. Love Guru $14,000,000 (ouch)

[Swaggs]

The Love Guru has to be considered an enormous failure between all of the promotion is has been given. They spent considerable time/money pushing it on American Idol, gave Mike Myers a 2-hour SNL special last weekend, and he pretty much used the hosting gig for the MTV Movie Awards as an infomercial.

Hard to believe that it has been over 5-years since Mike Myers has had a non-animated (re: Shrek) hit.

[Pyser]

this week:

Wall-E
Wanted



never bet against kids, even if it has a half naked angelina jolie shooting guns.

wall-e - 61m.

[Pyser]

nice to get one right.

1. Wall-E $62,500,000
2. Wanted $51,118,000
3. Get Smart $20,000,000

[Pyser]

this week:

hancock (wed)
kit kittredge: an american girl

not hard to say will smith will win another july 4th weekend.

3 day weekend - 74m
5 day take - 104m

[Pyser]

pretty good guesses from me again. ill take it.

actual take:
3 day weekend - $66
5 day take - $107

[Pyser]

this week:

hellboy 2
journey to the center of the earth
meet dave


eddie murphy is right out, norbitt aside. journey could do well, lots of kids out there....but im going hellboy 2, comics are as hot as theyve been lately. 41 m.

[Pyser]

hellboy wins at 36. good showing from hancock at 33 though.

[Pyser]

dark knight vs mama mia

not much of a contest. i think dark knight will fall just short of the record though

141m.

[larrymcg421]

It is on 300 more screens, so that will help. I think your number sounds right, but the record is not out of the question.

[Lorena]

Oh, great dynasty!

Never heard of Mama Mia, but yeah, Dark Knight is gonna kill this weekend... I'm gonna say 130M

[Pyser]

Oh, great dynasty!

Never heard of Mama Mia, but yeah, Dark Knight is gonna kill this weekend... I'm gonna say 130M

its a broadway play based on abba songs

it obviously doesnt have a shot in hell. its classic "counter programming". im not so sure itll even beat hellboy 2 or hancock, if people cant get into batman, i think theyd see another superhero movie over a musical. but ive been wrong before. a lot.

[Buccaneer]

Didn't realize you had started this up again this year.

[Buccaneer]

I am still shocked at Hancock's numbers, being perhaps the worst rated Will Smith movie.

[Pyser]

i wonder if hancock was considered a success. 100m for 5 days versus what dark knight will do this weekend...and it opened totally uncontested, too

still, will smith, july 4th, no competition, hes probably the most sure fire box office hit around right now. 8 straight 100m movies, never been done before

[larrymcg421]

Hancock is definitely a success. The critics hated it, but the audience Cinemascore was good. It's going to crack $200 million and will probably fall just short of the original Men in Black total, making it Smith's 3rd highest grossing movie.

As for Dark Knight, the Friday estimates put it at $66 million, which would give it the single day box office record over Spider-man 3's $59 million. I think the $141 prediction may be a bit low.

[Lorena]

141m.

I'm gonna say 130M

I think the $141 prediction may be a bit low.

Yes, you are correct. As of an hour ago:

'Dark Knight' sets weekend record with $155.34M (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jb68x_tOGx8QHjI0Cr6C-Vy79OGgD921LBQO0)

[Pyser]

yeah, it barely beat the record. seems spiderman 3 sold more tickets, but who is counting

interestingly, this was the highest grossing weekend in hollywood history. by far. pretty cool.

[Lorena]

yeah, it barely beat the record. seems spiderman 3 sold more tickets, but who is counting

interestingly, this was the highest grossing weekend in hollywood history. by far. pretty cool.

Man I can't wait to see it in a couple of weeks.


The Box-Office Top Five

1. "The Dark Knight" ($155.3 million)
2. "Mamma Mia!" ($27.6 million)
3. "Hancock" ($14 million)
4. "Journey to the Center of the Earth" ($11.9 million)
5. "Hellboy II: The Golden Army" ($10 million)

[Swaggs]

Pretty big drop off by Hellboy. I would have figured it would get some of Dark Knight's coattails.

I'm guessing it is going to be considered a pretty big flop if it doesn't crack $100M.

[Pyser]

step brothers and the x files movie open this week

tough to call. my initial gut says batman isnt done on top, though. but i need to look up how the first x files movie did first, though

[Buccaneer]

Batman is already in the Top 5 list for all-time grosses of 8 days.

[Pyser]

im sticking with dark knight. 53m.

[Lorena]

What movies are opening besides "Step Brothers" and "X-Files"? I'm also going with Dark Knight at 60M.

[Buccaneer]

Way low. It looks like $75m, all-time record for 2nd weekend.

[Pyser]

this is a case of me not doing my homework. had i seen that it made about $20m a day DURING THE WEEK, id of guessed way higher. oh well.

so who has predictions where dark knight will end up?

is $500-mil possible?

[Buccaneer]

What I find pretty amazing is that Iron Man, Indy 4 and Dark Knight each have nearly identical total domestic grosses, as of today.

[SFL Cat]

Third week is usually when these movies start to have a massive fall-off in box office revenue. But Dark Knight has looked pretty strong, so even if business drops way off...I think it pretty easily reigns as box office champ by the end of the year.

Also, wouldn't surprise me to see them release it for DVD in time for the Christmas season.

[Buccaneer]

Third week is usually when these movies start to have a massive fall-off in box office revenue. But Dark Knight has looked pretty strong, so even if business drops way off...I think it pretty easily reigns as box office champ by the end of the year.

Also, wouldn't surprise me to see them release it for DVD in time for the Christmas season.

Since when do they not release summer movies on DVD before Christmas?

[Lorena]

this is a case of me not doing my homework. had i seen that it made about $20m a day DURING THE WEEK, id of guessed way higher. oh well.

so who has predictions where dark knight will end up?

is $500-mil possible?

IronMan has already made $566,905,000 (according to the-numbers.com (http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2008/IRNMN.php)), and seeing how die hard some ppl seem to be about Dark Knight, I can definitely see this happening.

[Buccaneer]

It hasn't even begun to be released world-wide yet, just in a few countries. Indy 4 already has done $750m world-wide. Spiderman 3 did $890m with 62% coming overseas. Dark Knight will do much better domestically, easily $450m, but for some reason, Batman has never caught on well overseas (Batman Begins did more domestically than overseas with 55%).

[Pyser]

IronMan has already made $566,905,000 (according to the-numbers.com (http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2008/IRNMN.php)), and seeing how die hard some ppl seem to be about Dark Knight, I can definitely see this happening.

not domestically. no way.

[Lorena]

not domestically. no way.

Yeah those numbers are domestically and international, but I see The Dark Knight making 500mil domestically easily. It made 75 mil this week and 314 million already and it's been out.. what, 2 weeks?

The Dark Knight

<table class="abstractViewTbl" border="0"> <caption>Box Office Summary</caption> <thead> <th class="firstCol">
</th> <th class="lastCol">
</th> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <th>Box Office Total:</th> <td>$314,245,000</td> </tr> <tr> <th>Box Office Opening:</th> <td>$158,411,483</td> </tr> <tr> <th>No. of Weeks at #1:</th> <td>2</td> </tr> <tr> <th>No. of Weeks in Top 10:</th> <td>2</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

<table class="proViewTbl" style="width: 485px;" border="0"> <caption>Box Office History</caption> <thead> <th class="firstCol">Week</th> <th class="data">Rank</th> <th class="currency">Wkd. Gross</th> <th class="data">Theaters</th> <th class="currency">Per Theater</th> <th class="lastCol currency">Cumulative</th> </thead> <tfoot> <th class="firstCol" colspan="3">
</th> <th class="lastCol" colspan="3">
</th> </tfoot> <tbody> <tr> <td class="firstCol">Week #1 (http://www.rottentomatoes.com/movie/box_office.php?rank_id=1793)</td> <td class="data">1</td> <td class="currency">$158,411,483</td> <td class="data">4,366</td> <td class="currency">$36,283</td> <td class="lastCol currency">$158,411,483</td> </tr> </tbody><tbody> <tr> <td class="firstCol">Week #2 (http://www.rottentomatoes.com/movie/box_office.php?rank_id=1795)</td> <td class="data">1</td> <td class="currency">$75,630,000</td> <td class="data">4,366</td> <td class="currency">$17,322</td> <td class="lastCol currency">$314,245,000</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> Box office cumulative figures also include daily grosses from Monday through Thursday (not shown).

[Pyser]

mummy 3 vs dark knight this week. if mummy can scratch out 50m or so i think it can take it.

will predict later.

and again, everyone is free to make predictions.

[larrymcg421]

Mummy 3 48m
The Dark Knight 40m

[Pyser]

ive never been a big mummy fan, so i think ill go for the upset. i dont know if anyone is really clamoring to see the mummy, its just theres not much else to see now

dark knight 43m
mummy 41m

[larrymcg421]

Wow, it looks like you got it just right Pyser. I've never been happier to be wrong, as Mummy 3 was a piece of shit.

[Pyser]

this thread is suddenly making it look like i know what im talking about.

i can assure you i dont.

[Pyser]

ok, pineapple express is getting a wed release this week. so we need 3 and 5 day totals. im at a total loss, so this is just throwing numbers up with no real logic behind them

3 day - 62m
5 day - 96m

which seems a lot for an r-rated comedy, but people seem excited about this one, at least around where i live

[larrymcg421]

I have no idea what Pineapple Express will do, but I think that may be a bit high. I'll say 40m 3 day and 60m 5 day.

As for Dark Knight, this is the week where it starts to fall behind Titanic. Titanic has the 4th weekend record with a 28m total, and I think we're looking at about 26m for Dark Knight. Dark Knight will have to start to flatten out if it wants to catch Titanic. If it keeps dropping 40-50%, then it's not going to reach $600 million, although it will definitely become only the 2nd movie ever to cross $500 million.

[Pyser]

well thats about as wrong as one can be in this thread.

1-batman - 26m
2-pineapple express - 22.4m (40.4 m in the 5 day)

marijuana doesnt sell. lesson learned.

[larrymcg421]

Yeah I was way high on Pineapple Express, but 22m is still pretty big for an R-rated comedy and I think it will have legs. I did get Dark Knight right on the money, though. It's now #3 all-time and will #2 by next weekend.

[Pyser]

tropic thunder opens tomorrow. should have broader appeal than pineapple express, which has made me gun shy

3 day: 35m
5 day: 59m

[larrymcg421]

Tropic Thunder

3 day: 42m
5day: 60m

Dark Knight down to 15m

[Lorena]

This weekend: Tropic Thunder, Clone Wars, and Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Woody Allen Film)

I think Tropic Thunder will be the favorite this weekend at 52 million.

[larrymcg421]

Way high on Tropic Thunder, but I was only 2m off on Dark Knight.

[Pyser]

im a bit surprised tropic thunder was that low. it was actually good, unlike pineapple express. oh well. blockbuster season is over.

[Pyser]

dola, it made 26m over the weekend, and 37m since wed.

[Pyser]

the rocker opens today. on friday: death race, house bunny, and the longshots.

im leaning towards rocker for the 3 day (screw the 5 day)...but i think death race may be up there, too. there hasnt been a straight up action movie in a while.

[Pyser]

i think too many kids things are opening for the rocker to take it. im going death race, at 19m.

[Buccaneer]

No one is seeing The Rocker, which is probably a good thing.

[Pyser]

i learned a good lesson this week. if nothing looks decent, expect a repeat.

tropic thunder wins at 16.1.

[Pyser]

No one is seeing The Rocker, which is probably a good thing.

2.7m and a 12th place finish! yikes. rainn wilson, you have a long way to go, sir

[Pyser]

a whole mess of bad movies open today, from babylon ad to college to disaster movie. there are so many comedies out there, its crazy. it'll be a sub-20m winner again this week, the choices for me being tropic thunder, babylon ad, and disaster movie.

babylons the pick. i would have gone with disaster movie, until i remembered theres about 7 comedies to choose from right now. 17m over the 4 day weekend.

[Pyser]

so much for taking my own advice last week

tropic thunder wins the 4 day at 14.3m

[Pyser]

bangkok dangerous opens this week against nothing. its gotta win by default, tropic thunder should be down to 10m or under.

bangkok - 15m.

[Pyser]

wow, close week. fascinating

1-bangkok - 7.8m
2-tropic - 7.5m

[Karlifornia]

That had to be one of the worst weekends for movies.

[Pyser]

opening this week:

righteous kill
the women
burn after reading
tyler perrys the family that preys


i want to pick burn after reading, but think righteous kill will probably win out, even though its supposed to be nothing but absolutely terrible. total posted on friday

[Pyser]

ill go 16m on righteous kill. if tyler perry was on more screens, that wouldve been the pick, in retrospect

[Pyser]

wow, burn after reading takes it at 19.4. tyler perry was 2nd at 18m. good for the coen brothers.

righteous kill made 16.5, so i was right on that, but it came in 3rd. oops.

[Pyser]

opening:

ghost town
igor
lakeview terrace
my best friend's girl


i like ghost town the most, but it isnt on nearly enough screens. will pick later

[Pyser]

with ghost town, igor and bf girl all splitting an audience in one weird way or another, im going lakeview terrace, even though i hate everything about it.

15m

[Pyser]

and lakeview terrace wins the weekend easily at 15.6m.

[Pyser]

this week is eagle eye vs nights in rodanthe

the kids take this one. eagle eye at 23m.

[Pyser]

i was under. eagle eye went for 29.2.

[Pyser]

lots opening this week:

nick and norahs infinite playlist
blindness
beverly hills chihuahua
how to lose friends and alienate people

and a few others on even less screens.

i think eagle eye could actually repeat here, its totally different than everything else. but im gonna go with the most ridiculous one up there, thinking kids will go.

chihuahua at 22m.

[Pyser]

and chihuahua takes it easily at 29m.

[Pyser]

another busy release week

body of lies
city of ember
the express
quarantine

there hasnt been a horror movie in a while, and i think it could take it at 23m...but body of lies has the star power. hmm...

im sticking with the teens going to see a horror movie for now.

[Pyser]

wow, a genuinely surprising week. chihuahua repeated at 17m. i really didnt see that coming. quarantine did 14, body of lies 13.

[Pyser]

oops. missed a week. luckily no one reads this thread though.

opening this week:

high school musical 3
saw 5


gotta go with the kids. hsm3 at 35m is my early guess. and right now i wonder if thats low

[Buccaneer]

oops. missed a week. luckily no one reads this thread though.



I am a fan.

[hoopsguy]

I also have been reading along with this for a few months. I expect there are a few more people than you think following along.

[Pyser]

thanks, guys

hsm3 did indeed win, at 42m. so i was low. saw 5 made 30m for what its worth. but that will drop off in ridiculous fashion in the next 2 weeks...if not next weekend.

opening this week:

zak and miri make a porno
changeling
haunting of molly hartley


no idea what the 3rd movie is. im guessing a horror movie, obviously.

early pick is a repeat of hsm3, at 24m.

[cubboyroy1826]

For this week i think you will see HSM3 repeat at about $29 mill followed by Changeling.

[Pyser]

hsm3 only made 15, but won the weekend easily. zak and miri was 2nd.

opening this week:

madagascar 2
soul men
role models


easy pick here. madagascar 2. ill go 38m, but again, that may be low.

[Pyser]

i was under by a lot. madagascar 2 killed it - $63m

opening this week:

james bond. and thats about it. ill go $45m

[Pyser]

wow. another movie i badly undersold. bond did 67.5m.

opening this week:
bolt
twilight

VERY hard week. bond doesnt share an audience with either movie. every girl ive met recently is reading twilight, i think it will be very big. but didnt earlier this summer we learn that kids trump women (indy vs sex and the city?)

even with madagascar 2 still going strong, im going bolt: 42m. id expect bond and twilight to both be over 30 though, assuming the ladies like cedric diggory as much on screen as on their book pages...

[Pyser]

a very big miscalculation by me. i forgot that i only work with adult women, who were very excited about twilight....but teenagers were excited too, who i totally forgot about. no idea what i was thinking. anyway, 70.5m for twilight is very impressive. bolt finished 3rd at 27m.

[Pyser]

opening this week:

transporter 3
australia
4 christmases

i think 4 christmases should be the top new movie, but im gonna stick with twilight at 30m. go women. (ignoring the 5 day takes for these movies)

[Buccaneer]

It looks like the women went shopping instead. If my math is correct, Twilight is the 4th highest opening weekend with the biggest 2nd weekend drop, if that makes sense.

[Pyser]

well, my cold streak continues.

1-4 christmases - 31
2-bolt - 26.5
3-twilight - 26.3


damn women let me down :)

this weekend only has the punisher opening wide. if no one saw transporter 3, why would they go to the punisher? so the question is, what current movie will fall off the least: bolt or 4 christmases?

i'm going vince vaughn, 19m.

[Pyser]

It looks like the women went shopping instead. If my math is correct, Twilight is the 4th highest opening weekend with the biggest 2nd weekend drop, if that makes sense.

it doesnt make sense, sorry. can you elaborate?

[Buccaneer]

Go down this list

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/drops.htm

Start picking out the movies with huge openings (like 60+). You will see that among those movies, Twilight has the 4th largest drop (at 62%).

[Pyser]

got one sorta right. predicted 19m, and 4 xmases made 17m. not too bad.

opening this week:

the day the earth stood still

the other stuff isnt on enough screens to matter. easy choice here, thought final figure is kinda tough to figure. is this a big movie weekend? i have no idea. ill go 29m.

[cubboyroy1826]

Okay i will give this one a try with about $38 mill.

[Pyser]

day the earth stood still made 30.4m. not bad on my guess. tough week coming up:

7 pounds
despereaux
yes man

its either the kids and animation, or carrey in a seemingly liar liar sequel. pretty tough.

ill go despereaux at 35m, but i think yes man will keep it close.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Okay, who picked Delgo?
Animated 'Delgo' Has Worst Wide Release Opening Ever (http://movies.yahoo.com/feature/delgo-worst-opening-ever.html)

Don't feel too left out if you missed seeing the animated adventure movie "Delgo" this past weekend. No one did. In fact, the movie broke a record for having the worst opening ever for a film in wide release. "Delgo" earned a measly $511,920 this weekend on 2,160 screens, not even breaking the top ten. That's an average of $237 per screen for the three days. If you figure there were five screenings a day, and assume ticket prices are about $8, that comes out to two people in the theater per showing. By comparison, the Golden Globe-nominated drama "Doubt" earned roughly the same amount of money, but it was only in 15 theaters.

I only noticed this because I was interested in seeing how the movie did, as the people behind it were the principals in Atlanta-based Macquarium, one of the top interactive & creative companies in the ad business. Looks like they should have stuck with that (although apparently it began way back when as a way to try to get this movie made)

[Pyser]

wow

you know, if you want people to see your movie, it generally helps to tell ANYONE youve made it and its coming out soon. ive never heard of it

interesting cast, after watching the trailer on youtube. though everything about it seems 'homemade' before it. i couldnt even tell if it was a comedy or not.

thanks for the info, though!

[Buccaneer]

Jon, there has to be a qualification for that. According to boxofficemojo, "wide release" is considered 600+ theatres (where it came in #13). In the next category, "very wide" (2000+), it was #1 (by far). They have two higher categories (2500+ and 3000+).

[Pyser]

day the earth stood still made 30.4m. not bad on my guess. tough week coming up:

7 pounds
despereaux
yes man

its either the kids and animation, or carrey in a seemingly liar liar sequel. pretty tough.

ill go despereaux at 35m, but i think yes man will keep it close.

im changing to yes man at 31m. weather may make it tougher for people to get out, especially the young kids that would see despereaux.

[Pyser]

oops, been out of town, forgot to update. missed a week last week, and nothing new opened, so predicting marley and me to repeat would be cheap.

and a few weeks ago i was pretty far over. yes man was #1, but only made 18m.

will return next week for bride wars and such.

[Pyser]

bride wars and the unborn open this week, going against 2 time champ marley and me. i think bride wars and marley are the same audience, so ill go unborn at 14m for now.

[Pyser]

gran torino also goes wide this week. that factors into things and changes them. that, coupled with playoffs bodes bad for unborn. changing to bride wars at 15m.

[Buccaneer]

Looks like Gran Torino for the solid win: 29.4m. Go Clint.

[Pyser]

badly underestimated, as the top 3 movies each topped my prediction for #1

gran torino took it easily at 29m.

[Buccaneer]

How was it that you and I had the exact thought at the exact same time on a late Monday?

[Pyser]

ha! weird.

opening this week:

hotel for dogs
my bloody valentine
paul blart: mall cop

i think valentine could be up there, but ill go repeat. theres nothing really to see and i hear its cold out there (not sure what my logic is there, but hey). 17m.

[Pyser]

this is the kind of weekend that makes me want to quit this game.

what the fuck is wrong with this country?

Paul Blart: Mall Cop - $39m

[Pyser]

dola, that includes mlk day.

$34m in the 3 day. still insane.

[cubboyroy1826]

Yeah i saw the numbers for Paul Blart and had to say WTF. I comment frequently about who the heck put up the money for this POS to be made. Paul Blart was one of those movies and then it goes out and makes money.

[hoopsguy]

And, sadly, it encourages movie people to pay Kevin James more for his next picture. Which is not likely to be an Academny-quality script either.

[JonInMiddleGA]

$21 of those Mall Cop dollars came from us (I'm sorry to say).

The movie worked for both my wife & my son, a lot less so for me. I will give it credit for one thing though, at least there were relatively funny moments that weren't in the trailer.

I thought the first 1/3rd of the movie or so bordered on unbearable as they tried to establish what a loser he is & set up the romantic subplot. The rest was more tolerable although I'm not sure what it says about a comedy whose best moments are the (highly unrealistic) action sequences.

On the bright side, the female lead is a Jane Krakowski doppleganger that the camera liked pretty well so it had that going for it.

[Pyser]

this weeks openings:

inkheart
underworld 3


couple things. one, oscar nominations came out, which could skew some things a little bit. and 2, paul blart is a fucking force to be reckoned with.

even with a big drop, i think its blart vs underworld 3. my heart says underworld, which is why im going blart - because he's not beating me twice. 20m to the fat man.

[Pyser]

haha, blart. you didnt get me again.

blart with another win - 21.6m. underworld 3 - 20.8m.

3peat?

[Chief Rum]

Not a lot of family friendlies out there, so I think Blart has a good chance to stay on top. Taken and the Uninvited have both been backed by surprisingly massive ad campaigns, but on top of their ratings, I don't know that Taken has the draw with Liam Neeson as the star, and the Univited is competing with Underworld and The Unborn in the horror genre.

Blart seems to be getting decent buzz, so I think they stay on top one more week.

[Pyser]

im gonna go with taken at 16m. i just really dont want to see blart win 3 in a row.

[Chief Rum]

im gonna go with taken at 16m. i just really dont want to see blart win 3 in a row.

You'll get my money in your figures. I am leaving to go check it out shortly.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Taken wins with $24.6 million through Saturday but more interesting to me was a quote I saw in the story.

"Taken" follows Neeson as a former CIA operative trying to track down a group of kidnappers who want to sell his daughter into the sex slave trade.

"We are thrilled. It's an all-audience movie,"

I'm really having a hard time knowing whether to scratch my head, laugh, or cry at those two things being in the same sentence. I'm pretty sure I know what the guy was trying to say - male & female viewers in several age cells - but it just really made my eyes spin when I saw that description of the plot matched with "all-audience movie".

[Chief Rum]

Taken wins with $24.6 million through Saturday but more interesting to me was a quote I saw in the story.

"Taken" follows Neeson as a former CIA operative trying to track down a group of kidnappers who want to sell his daughter into the sex slave trade.

"We are thrilled. It's an all-audience movie,"

I'm really having a hard time knowing whether to scratch my head, laugh, or cry at those two things being in the same sentence. I'm pretty sure I know what the guy was trying to say - male & female viewers in several age cells - but it just really made my eyes spin when I saw that description of the plot matched with "all-audience movie".

Yeah, not quite an all-audience movie. ;)

[Pyser]

24m is a surprisingly high total. being off by 8m or 33% is kinda embarrassing, but then im always off a lot, so i dont feel too bad.

[Pyser]

tough week to call. opening:

pink panther 2
coraline
push
he's just not that into you

you have action, kids, comedy and romance. all pull pretty well. gonna rule out coraline because it looks a bit to scary for most kids. and push because, come on, its a heroes rip off, which is an x-men ripoff. so pink panther 2 vs not into you

are women excited for valentines day? probably. on the other hand, pink panther 1 sucked....despite my love for steve martin, who the hell is looking forward to this?

i think im going not into you, at 23 mil. but i think a lot of the new releases will be close.

[Pyser]

and the women take it, at 27.7m.

taken held very strong, coming in 2nd at 20m. not much of a drop at all. interesting.

opening this week:

confessions of a shopaholic
friday the 13th
the international

predictions later in the week

[Chief Rum]

I was a little surprised at how this week turned out, although it was every bit as competitive all around as you figured. I saw a Coraline late matinee on Sunday, and the theater was pretty much packed. I wasn't surprised to see it did well.

Taken is a surprise, too. I think it's getting decent "popcorn flick" word of mouth from action fans, and Push was crapped on, so that's probably what happened there.

I have to think Friday the 13th is going to pretty much grab the entire horror segment this weekend, and will probably get a lot of "first date Valentines Day scary jump into my arms" couples as well. The more serious couples will probably keep Not That Into You strong, and make it a two horse race.

But that's completely thinking off the top of my head.

[Pyser]

friday the 13th on the 13th. come on. gotta go with it.

26m.

[Pyser]

im going to have to start reminding myself this isnt the price is right, and that i can go over with no penalty.

friday the 13th made a staggering $45m, a record for a horror movie.

also, taken made $22m. it basically has not gone down in 3 weeks!

[Pyser]

madea. 30m.

[Pyser]

and it made 41m. biggest opening of the year (friday the 13th was a 4 day weekend, apparently)

[Pyser]

some 3d jonas brothers movie opens this week. thats about all you need to know in terms of who is gonna win the weekend. time to go big: 45m.

[Pyser]

my god do i suck at this. whered all the jonas fans go? madea repeats at 16.5. jonas made 12.7. embarrassing.

[Pyser]

watchmen. id like others to guess this week if they arent reading.

im going 59m...because sin city burned me bad the last time i did this thread.

[Pyser]

pretty close. it made 55.2

now how big will it drop? im guessing a lot...later this week

[Pyser]

race to witch mountain. 36m is the guess.

[Pyser]

witch won at only 24m

[Pyser]

i love you man, duplicity and knowing all open this week. pretty tough to call

im going i love you man, since its the one id want to see the most, and thats all i can speak for. 23m.

[Pyser]

nic cage takes it at 24m. slightly surprising i guess. i hope its a comeback for him.

[Pyser]

monsters vs alien should be huge. 53m.

[Pyser]

yup. 58.2m. biggest opening of the year.

[Chief Rum]

Yeah, this week seemed pretty easy to call. Nice hit on your numbers guess, though.

Looking ahead to next week, seems pretty interesting. Monsters & Aliens should still grab a sizable portion of the market, being animated and kid friendly, even with a huge dropoff. But Fast & Furious, with some commercial success in the series, returns with probably its most commercially appealing entry since the original, with Diesel and Walker returning (and others).

Problem is, neither of these guys have shown they are too good at picking winners, particularly Walker. Diesel drops in every now and then with a surpisingly solid hit or two (XXX series, The Pacifier), so maybe his return to the franchise is a sign that they got their act together a little better in this one. Or it could be two guys not getting as much play trying to re-energize their careers, and not really having much choice but go back to something like this.

All said, I mean that if this thing is lambasted and people are meh about it as a result, it could get a decent franchise pop at about $20 M and then just disappear. I don't think $20 M beats M&A's second week take, which I anticipate being in the mid-20s at worst, and probably a bit higher. It doesn't help that I am not even sure the studio is pushing F & F 4 much (haven't seen as much ads for it as I would expect a week before release).

So I would lean M&A next week.

[Pyser]

i think f&f will do much more than 20. nice to see someone thats not me in here!

[Chief Rum]

i think f&f will do much more than 20. nice to see someone thats not me in here!

We'll see. Not encouraged to get to Monday afternoon before release, and we still don't have even one review logged on RottenTomatoes. I would guess hyou know what that means--the ole studio kiss of death, trying to start the "negative hype" late so they can get a decent weekend pop before news gets around that it sucks. ;)

I may not say much, but your thread is one of the few I check the Dynasty forum for. So rest assured you have at least one reader.

[Pyser]

im sticking with f&f4 at 34m. but i do think aliens vs monsters will be up there too.

[Pyser]

i think f&f will do much more than 20.

what in the holy fucking shit??? are these articles right? f&f made 72.5 fucking million dollars??!?!

[Chief Rum]

what in the holy fucking shit??? are these articles right? f&f made 72.5 fucking million dollars??!?!

I'm not surprised...now. ;)

I went to see it Friday night. It's a busy theater I went to in LA suburbia (OC), but still not necessarily one where you have to worry about sellouts. They had F&F going in four theaters. I walked up at 8:40, and the 9:00 one was front row seating only, and the 9:30 one already had a line that would fill half the theater. I went to the same theater on opening night for the much-hyped Watchmen and was able to get a decent seat walking up about 15 minutes before. Mind you, the Watchmen theater also ended up pretty full, but F&F was on a whole other level.

Seems likely this one will get a fifth installment if they can get the stars to come back (and, no, #4 wasn't particularly great).

[Buccaneer]

Shocked at all of the records FF set.

[Pyser]

ill take f&f again at 36m.

[Pyser]

underestimated hannah montana, which won at 33m. f&f4 had 27m.

[Pyser]

opening this week:

crank 2 (FUCK YES!)
17 again
state of play

i think only 17 again will come close to cracking 20. same exact fan base as hannah montana, though. but ill go 17 again at 17m, for symmetry's sake. (but my heart wants crank 2)

[Pyser]

17 again took it at 23.7. pretty solid

opening this week:

obsessed
fighting
the soloist

i have no idea, but either obsessed or fighting will take it. i guess ill go with the chick one - obsessed at 17m.

[Chief Rum]

Don't think I am going out on a limb suggesting a certain wolfish movie will take the prize this weekend.

[Pyser]

oof, forgot to update. ill go 52m. obsessed made 28m last week, kinda surprising.

[Pyser]

upon thinking one more minute, 72m.

[Chief Rum]

Your second guess is better, I think.

Reports had this opening at $35 M on Friday alone. I actually think $72 M could end up conservative. I think it could break $80 M.

[Pyser]

good call, CR. it made 85m

now the question is, will star trek beat it?

right now im thinking yes....but it all depends on the women. i get hugh jackman pulling them in...but spock??

[Pyser]

no idea what to guess. i think 65m, not as many women, but really good reviews.

[Chief Rum]

Lot of buzz for Star Trek leading up, and new fans seem to be curious and flocking. Plus, between reviews and positive word of mouth, I see that interest continuing for a bit. The new fans will help balance the male-heavy viewing lean.

Wolverine will do the traditional second week drop in bigtime genre films, so there was never a question in my mind Star Trek would top it. I don't know if Star Trek can catch that $87 M, though.

My guess is $75 M for Star Trek, and about $40-45 M for Wolverine.

[Pyser]

good job, CR. just about spot on!

this week is angels & demons. ill go 45m. dont know anyone who actually wants to see it, though.

[Chief Rum]

I went to see it last night, at a busy theater, and it was maybe one-third full (and that might be a liberal guess).

I am thinking it will also be meh at the box office, although, for me personally, it was on I was waiting a long time for. I think it brings in about $25-30 M, and Star Trek stays on top by maybe $2-3 M. The wolf will steal do decent, too (big drop is from first to second week), probably $20 M, maybe a little under.

[Pyser]

angels & demons made 46m.
star trek made 43m.


this week is terminator 4 vs night at the museum 2. will think on it a bit. both should be big, with it having an extra day for memorial day to boot.

[Pyser]

ugh, was out of town for a wedding, forgot to predict. i havent checked #s yet, so this will be unofficial. very tough to call. families vs everyone else. i only know 20somethings, so they were all about t4. ill go with families though, since kids stuff usually wins. 73m for natm2. but 65 maybe for t4? (3 day weekend only)

[Pyser]

no reason not to go huge with up. 81m.

[Chief Rum]

no reason not to go huge with up. 81m.

Crowded theater tonight, and that was at a 9 p.m. showing. The families will get out for this one, I am sure. $81 M still seems a bit high to me. My guess is more around $60 M. But it should do well, and beat out all other comers.

My guess for the rest...

Night @ Museum II...37 M
Drag Me To Hell...24 M
Terminator...21 M
Star Trek...13 M
Angels & Demons...8 M

I suspect Drag Me To Hell will do well, because most teens & post-adolescents will have already seen Terminator and Night @ Museum, and Up is too young, and A&D is too old. Plus, no other horror options out there right now, it has been advertised a bit and I'll bet Raimi's a bit of a pull from his Evil Dead cult series.

[Pyser]

i overshot, but CR guessed well. $68m

[Pyser]

tough week to call. hangover is the hot pick. land of the lost has families, but looks awful. and up should pull in around 30m too, and has the same audience at land of the lost

but im going will ferrell. 40m.

[Pyser]

thats embarrassing. hangover took it at 45m, land of the lost made like 18m or so

[Chief Rum]

thats embarrassing. hangover took it at 45m, land of the lost made like 18m or so

I had had a meh feeling for Land of the Lost even before the awful reviews came out. The trailers didn't really look too good either. I think the public just saw through a pile of crap on this one. Plus, Hangover was going to put a big dent into any Land of the Lost audience, and Up was going to draw away families.

Not that I was calling this myself mind you, I'm just thinking in retrospect it might not be that surprising after all.

This week, I think with the word of mouth The Hangover seems to be getting, it's probably going to have a pretty short drop off. I can see another $30 M or so.

I'm not too sure Pelham 123 will get that big of an audience, especially being an R and an unestablished original story (which is sad, shouldn't need to be a sequel to earn money). I would guess $25 M or so, and likely to be less.

[Pyser]

i completely agree. maybe a little less for both.

[Pyser]

33/25. well done, cr

[Pyser]

oh, up snuck in between to take 2nd

[Chief Rum]

oh, up snuck in between to take 2nd

I noticed that. Wow, shoulda gave more credit to Up.

[Pyser]

year one and the proposal try to unseat hangover.

i think the winner will make about 22m. ill give it to the proposal, but wouldnt be surprised to see hangover sneak in one more win.

[Pyser]

proposal wins at 33 or so.

this week is transformers 2, with a wed release. ill go 93m for 5 day....67m for 3 day.

[Pyser]

considering transformers 2 made 60m on wed alone, this week i will be wrong in such truly epic proportions, it might not be worth even bothering to predict anymore.

[Chief Rum]

considering transformers 2 made 60m on wed alone, this week i will be wrong in such truly epic proportions, it might not be worth even bothering to predict anymore.

Heh...it's been a screwy year picking the box numbers. Despite a recession and increased movie ticket prices, people seem to be going to the theater in droves. I wouldn't beat yourself up over it.

Obviously, Transformers in a landslide this weekend, although I think it's likely to plummet after this week.

[Pyser]

i see a lot of words, CR, but not a lot of numbers :)

[Buccaneer]

Movie-goers must be really hard up for entertainment and escapism to have Transformers get such gaudy numbers. Haven't seen Rotten Tomatoes but several reviews have trashed it (compared to the first one) and even fan scores from boxofficemojo and imdb are not that good. It is sad to reward such a movie with such high numbers, esp. compared to last year's Dark Knight and the upcoming HP.

[Pyser]

holy moly.

112m 3 day, 201m 5 day.

i was over 100m off!

[Chief Rum]

i see a lot of words, CR, but not a lot of numbers :)

:p

Yeah, I thought the end numbers would be nutty (as they were), so picking a number would have been difficult.

This weekend is much more interesting, IMO. Three serious contenders. Transformers coming off of a phenomenal week--but did they just get the fanboy splash and know they drop like a rock? Public Enemies has a big draw in Johnny Depp--but it's not getting the buzz of the usual Fourth of July headliner, and is a period actioner a big enough draw? And then there's the new Ice Age movie, which will draw in families and fans of the series--but with Transformers and Public Enemies out there, can it draw enough from the non-family demographic to buffer its base numbers?

Strangely enough, right now I actually lean toward Transformers in another landslide. The rest of the people who missed it will make it the movie of choice over the holiday weekend.

[Chief Rum]

Movie-goers must be really hard up for entertainment and escapism to have Transformers get such gaudy numbers. Haven't seen Rotten Tomatoes but several reviews have trashed it (compared to the first one) and even fan scores from boxofficemojo and imdb are not that good. It is sad to reward such a movie with such high numbers, esp. compared to last year's Dark Knight and the upcoming HP.

Sad to say, I knew the reviews were bad, but went to see it anyway. As bad as expected, had the same thrills expected (explosions, robot coolness, Megan Fox). So I am part of the problem, lol.

[Pyser]

ill go ice age 3. 56m.

[Pyser]

and transformers 2 wins a tight one. $42.3mil, beating ice age by 600k.

[Pyser]

ok, big weekend. how big will bruno be, following borat? i think people like foreigners a lot more than gay guys...

but i still think it will win, at 28m.

[Buccaneer]

But Bruno has one of the biggest all-time drops between Friday and Saturday.

[Pyser]

it made 30m. and was hilarious.

now time for mega potter money.

[Pyser]

hp6 made 58m on opening day wed.

for the 3 day weekend, ill go 101m.

[Pyser]

it made $79m. still pretty good.

[Pyser]

potter tries to hold on against g force, orphan and ugly truth

i think it will. 28m.

[SFL Cat]

G Force absolutely the worst piece of kiddy crap I've seen in a while...but it beat out Potter.

[SFL Cat]

Dola...even though I still don't see what all the big hulaboo is about effin' Harry Potter....

[Pyser]

yep. i was close, potter made 29.4, but g-force somehow made 31.7

[Pyser]

forgot to post yesterday. funny people 27m

[Pyser]

it made 23.4m

[Pyser]

gi joe vs julie and julia

ill go action, kinda big. gi joe at 40m.

[Chief Rum]

gi joe vs julie and julia

ill go action, kinda big. gi joe at 40m.

I like your pick. I think GI Joe was the obvious choice for who ends up on top. Just not enough interest, IMO, in Julie/Julia to match that. But the number was up in the air, and I think you're on the mark with 40 M.

[Pyser]

early estimates say mid 50s. hasbro is king!

[Pyser]

sorry, was away for 2 weeks

this week gotta go inglourious basterds. ill pick 36m. and man, no bad buzz at all from people ive talked to. still want to see last weeks d9 too.

[Pyser]

basterds made $38.1m

[Chief Rum]

basterds made $38.1m

Damn, that's one of your best picks yet, numbers-wise. It wasn't a stretch to see Basterds take the top spot, so hitting close to the number was the good shot this week.

[Pyser]

i got lucky, yeah

this week its inglourious holding and strong word of mouth vs two horror flicks: halloween 2 and the final destination

ill go halloween, but will root for basterds. halloween at 24m

[Chief Rum]

i got lucky, yeah

this week its inglourious holding and strong word of mouth vs two horror flicks: halloween 2 and the final destination

ill go halloween, but will root for basterds. halloween at 24m

Ditto. Except I think Halloween breaks 30. Horror nuts dig this stuff, and I don't think it will be much of a split between that and Final Destination (non-serious horror fans, teens will go to that one; college, 20s & 30s will go to Halloween).

[Pyser]

we backed the wrong horse.

1-final destination - 27.4m
2-inglourious basterds - 19.3m
3-halloween 2 - 16.3m

[Pyser]

ill go sandra bullock chick flick at 22m for the 4 day weekend

dont rule gamer out, though.

[Pyser]

final destination held at 15.2m (for the 4 day)...so i overshot by a lot

this week is 9, which opened early, sorority row, i can do bad all by myself, and whiteout

ill go tyler perry's bad at 19m.

[Pyser]

ill go cloudy with meatballs at 19m this weekend

last weekend tyler perry took it at 23.4m

[Buccaneer]

Here's a quick quiz. Without looking it up (or if you already know, without spilling), we know that Titanic is #1 all-time international box office and Return of the King is #2. What is #3?

[Pyser]

dark knight and star wars pop into my head immediately...but for some reason id think something like pirates 2 or spiderman 2 or might sneak in there?

[Pyser]

fame, surrogates and pandorum open. meatballs tries to hold.

ill go willis for the win with surrogates, but only at like 17m

[Pyser]

cloudy meatballs repeats at 25m. i cant believe i was over with surrogates, only made 14.9m

[Pyser]

a lot opening, but ill go zombieland at 27m

[Pyser]

made 24.7m

[Karlifornia]

Nice call with Zombieland. Good word of mouth really helped it out.

[Pyser]

couples retreat vs zombieland

z has great word of mouth, but can it top 20m? thats what i think couples will make, and ill go with vaughn

[Pyser]

vince vaughn rules, apparently. couples made 34.2m

[Pyser]

ill go where the wild things are at 30m. kids rule.

[Pyser]

it made 32.6m. not a bad guess.

[Pyser]

saw 6 opens a week before halloween. thats all i need to know, atroboy be damned. 34m.

[Chief Rum]

Yup, this week is easy. $34 M is probably as good a guess as any.

[Buccaneer]

That's probably the furthest off I have ever seen both of you. I'm glad that PA got the big win.

[Pyser]

yeah, absolutely embarrassing. it doesnt help that i hate horror movies, so i just assumed saw was an institution...but then again, i shouldve listened to my gut a bit more thinking, "when was the 6th movie of ANYTHING good?"

anyway, for those that missed it, paranormal activity won it at 22m, while saw 6 had the worst opening of any saw movie, at 14m.

[Pyser]

dola, buc, answer your damn trivia question already!

[Buccaneer]

Sorry, I had forgotten about that.


Third highest grossing movie of all time - international only:

Ice Age 3


Really.

[Chief Rum]

Sorry, I had forgotten about that.


Third highest grossing movie of all time - international only:

Ice Age 3


Really.

Wow, really? That's crazy. I think I can win some bar bets with that one.

[Chief Rum]

yeah, absolutely embarrassing. it doesnt help that i hate horror movies, so i just assumed saw was an institution...but then again, i shouldve listened to my gut a bit more thinking, "when was the 6th movie of ANYTHING good?"

anyway, for those that missed it, paranormal activity won it at 22m, while saw 6 had the worst opening of any saw movie, at 14m.

I actually liked Rocky's 6th movie.

[Pyser]

yeah, i thought of harry potter, too. but really, thinking mostly horror, its a safe bet it sucks. oh well.

[Pyser]

this is it opens this weekend. well, really a few days ago. usually on halloween weekend youd go horror movie, but with halloween on a saturday, whos going to the movies?

mj takes it, but i have NO idea how many people are interested. maybe no one. maybe everyone. ill say 25m, but it could be way higher.

[Pyser]

this is it made 23.2m this weekend, and 34.4m in 5 days. not bad.

[Pyser]

jim carreys a christmas carol should be big, though why they kept making these movies after scrooged is beyond me

36m. seems early for an xmas movie by the way...

[Chief Rum]

I think A Christmas Carol is a safe bet to go with, although I was surprised at how crowded the theater was for "Goats" tonight.

I don't see a day time crowd for that one, though, like A Christmas Carol will get.

And Scrooged is terrific.

[Pyser]

id be surprised if goats cracked 10m. it just screams indie to me...and i dont think clooney can open a movie.

[Pyser]

christmas carol made 30m.

i was wrong on goats, though. it made 12.7m

[Pyser]

2012 - 29m is the guess. feels low, but 2 and a half hour runtime?

[Chief Rum]

I watched with a packed house at the last late showing of 2012 (11 p.m.), and that was after front row seating was all that was left 15 minutes before the show that started a half hour before it.

Even with the long run timing, I am guessing this one beats your $29 M. I think $40 M myself.

[Pyser]

yeah im sure im too low on this one

[Chief Rum]

$23 M Friday night alone. Looks like this one could be north of $50 M by the end of the weekend.

[Pyser]

$65.2 mil.

wow.

[Swaggs]

wow.

Agreed. I didn't think 2012 had a chance to recoup its production costs (reportedly ~$220M+), but they are probably close after their opening weekend, as I heard they did around $160M internationally and $65M in the U.S.

There is talk that there may be a television spinoff.

[Chief Rum]

Agreed. I didn't think 2012 had a chance to recoup its production costs (reportedly ~$220M+), but they are probably close after their opening weekend, as I heard they did around $160M internationally and $65M in the U.S.

There is talk that there may be a television spinoff.

Hmm, a spinoff in the post-apocalyptic world they were setting up? That could be interesting if it's done by the right people. Of course, I have also heard Emmerich himself is looking to possibly make a sequel.

I read they spent about $100 M on marketing, so it's still quite a bit of a ways off from straight profitability on the public numbers (which don't mean squat, with everyone's take, they have to gross about three times of cost to make money--although maybe they make that up with DVD/NetFlix/post-theater revenue).

[Pyser]

ok, tomorrow might be the biggest teen movie day ever....well, until the next twilight movie. but these stories suck, theres a chance a backlash will happen and it peaks this weekend. we can only hope. anyway, how huge will twilight: new moon be?

id think itll crack 100m, maybe as high as 110. im saying 111, because it looks nice.

but since last week doubled my guess, this could go as low as 55m (it absolutely wont).

[Kodos]

My wife and her sisters are all going to see New Moon tonight. I can't believe there are two more movies to endure before this whole thing will be over.

[Pyser]

looks like 111 will be way too low

new moon made 72m on friday alone

[Swaggs]

New Moon hit $140-million over he weekend. I think I read that it did $250-million worldwide.

BTW... Paranormal Activity is up over $100-million now ($106M). Absolutely amazing for a movie that cost $15K to make. I read that one of their biggest expenses was like $500 to rent a police officer's uniform for a scene that they ended up cutting. :)

[Pyser]

pretty easy to stick with new moon this weekend. though i think there will be a huge drop. maybe a record drop. still good for $40m in my mind though. (has any film made $100m less the next weekend?)

[Pyser]

it made 42.8m to hold on, narrowly beating the blind side, which went up in week 2.

and new moon did have the biggest drop ever, $100m.

[Pyser]

nothing too big comes out this weekend. and i think we are now into repeat business for new moon. so im going kinda different, thinking the blindside isnt done yet. 18m.

[Pyser]

blindside did indeed take it at 20m.

this week is princess and the frog, and invictus

dont go against kids. 28m.

[Chief Rum]

blindside did indeed take it at 20m.

this week is princess and the frog, and invictus

dont go against kids. 28m.

Yup, that's what I was thinking. The Princess & The Frog are probably going to make a killing this weekend, and then get another boost in and around the holidays.

[Pyser]

glad i dont play by price is right rules.

princess and the frog made 25m. less than 10 for invictus

[Pyser]

ok, avatar time

if you asked me last week, id of said 30m because it looks weird and cant possibly be good. but the reviews ive seen have been glowingly positive, and im starting to get excited to see it in 3d on imax...but is anyone else?

i mean, this could make 40m, or it could make 100m. i have no idea. anyone else?

right now im saying 60m, seems safe. but it could nearly double that for all i know, like i said.

[Chief Rum]

ok, avatar time

if you asked me last week, id of said 30m because it looks weird and cant possibly be good. but the reviews ive seen have been glowingly positive, and im starting to get excited to see it in 3d on imax...but is anyone else?

i mean, this could make 40m, or it could make 100m. i have no idea. anyone else?

right now im saying 60m, seems safe. but it could nearly double that for all i know, like i said.

The studio's hoping to hit triple digits, I'm sure, with the cash they put out backing it. It might do it; there has been a ton of advertising on this thing.

But I don't feel the buzz for it like I do franchise films or remakes/re-boots i.e. stories with a set audience and expectation. It almost feels like the "buzz" is more from the Hollywood community (because it's Cameron, because of the huge budget, and because of the techno stuff), and that's partly what's driving the media gloss, too.

It's a good thing it is reviewing well, because for fans to actually get excited about it, it's going to need to wow them and generate word of mouth, I think.

I think $60 M is probably a good target to aim for, but I wouldn't be surprised if the marketing machine jumped it up significantly or if the lack of actual fan zeal I perceive knocked it down a lot.

[Pyser]

it made 77m. we werent terribly far off. this week is tough, will post later