WW LXXXIV -- Life Contingencies (GAME OVER)

[Passacaglia]

Rules: Standard werewolf, with a day deadline of 9 PM Eastern time. Everyone must vote for someone they would like to see die. Failure to vote will result in an unspecified penalty that will increase with each offense. All votes must be for a player in the game (i.e. No votes of "No Lynch" are accepted), and must be in bold. The wolves must decide their night-kill strategy by 7 AM Eastern time.

Lately, there's been a movement against the use of random.org in games for various reasons. I agree with most of those reasons, but despite that, this game will use random.org liberally. I believe that this still offers several opportunities for strategic planning, but if you're against such randomness, then this game might not be for you.

Everyone votes on who they want to die, and one player will die as a result of the vote. However, that player will not necessarily be the one with the most votes. Instead, the number of votes for a player will represent the probability that he dies. For example, say there are 10 players in the game. 4 vote for Passacaglia, 3 vote for claphamsa, 2 vote for jeheinz72, and 1 votes for Alan T. Passacaglia has a 4/10 = 40% chance of dying, claphamsa has a 3/10 = 30% chance of dying, jeheinz72 has a 2/10 = 20% chance of dying, and Alan T has a 1/10 = 10% chance of dying.

The wolves make their kill at night. They will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of dying from the wolves that night. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40% (this number may be changed without announcement to the village as we approach endgame).

The bodyguard may protect one player per night. He or she will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of being protected that night. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40%, and the bodyguard himself cannot have a percentage greater than 20%. You will be told who you protect, and you will know you have protected successfully if there is no kill (this means there are no conversions). If you protect someone successfully, the wolves will know who you protected (i.e. who they tried to kill).

The seer may find the allegiance of one player per night. He or she will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of being viewed that night. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40% (this number may be changed without announcement to the village as we approach endgame).

The duke may choose a different set of probabilities for the lynch vote one day during the game. He or she will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of being lynched that day. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40%. The duke himself must have a percentage of at least 10%. The duke's identity will be revealed when this happens.

The game ends with a villager victory if all the wolves are killed, and a wolf victory if the number of villagers is less than the number of wolves.

[Passacaglia]

Players:

1. Barkeep49 -- Killed Night 2, Bodyguard
2. path12 -- Killed Night 3, Villager
3. RendeR -- Lived
4. PackerFanatic -- Lynched Day 4, Villager
5. hoopsguy -- Killed Night 4, Villager
6. The Jackal -- Lynched Day 2, Wolf
7. Hannibal Lecter -- Killed Night 3, Seer
8. jeheinz72 -- Lynched Day 1 by the Duke, Wolf
9. Lathum -- Lynched Day 3, Villager

[Passacaglia]

Signups will end and Day 1 will begin Wednesday morning. Day 1 will end Wednesday 9 PM Central, but results might be late that day -- the wolves are welcome to come up with tons of conditional orders if they come out too late, or I can just be lenient on the night deadline in the morning.

[Lathum]

bummer about the Halloween game, the person in the LAthum costume would have had fun messing with you all.

[Barkeep49]

I'll play this one.

[path12]

I'm in.

[RendeR]

Sign me up skippy.

[PackerFanatic]

I would love to join.

[Crim]

This looks really interesting. Wish I could join, but no time the next couple of weeks. I'll follow along, though, and criticize liberally.

[Hannibal Lecter]

I would love to play Clarice!

[Hannibal Lecter]

It is a shame about the other game though. I was looking forward to a nice Indian dish.

[Passacaglia]

Oh great, now you can post? Whatever.

[Hannibal Lecter]

I did not mean to kill the thread.

Ta Ta for Now

[~V~]

Oh great, now you can post? Whatever.


Yup, it appears Mr. Lou was just being slow.

Verily I vent my vindictive verbiage vicariously.

[RendeR]

God i loved that movie. Natalie......DRrooooooolllllz

[Hannibal Lecter]

She is thoroughly delectable, almost good enough to eat.

[RendeR]

*peers*

[DaddyTorgo]

hmmm

[DaddyTorgo]

seems very...random

[Passacaglia]

I'm going to give this until Monday to start, to give people a little break for a while. I would have mentioned that earlier today, but FOFC was blocked at work -- I could get around it to see the board, but not to log in.

[hoopsguy]

OK, Monday start works for me. I'm in.

[hoopsguy]

FWIW, there look to be several of our WW regulars that have picked up Fallout 3. I'm not sure how much we'll see them for the next two weeks :)

I'm going to try and hold out on Fallout 3 until I pass my first of six certification tests for Windows 2008 and Exchange 2007. So hopefully I'm able to grab this game in 2-3 weeks.

OK, back to the regularly scheduled WW conversation.

[The Jackal]

Monday is good for me, I'm in.

[Hannibal Lecter]

It appears that I will have to switch Id's to play, very unfortunate.

[jeheinz72]

Weird. I could've sworn I posted that I'm in yesterday.

Anyhow, I'm in.

Let's dance.

[hoopsguy]

It appears that I will have to switch Id's to play, very unfortunate.

Why can't you just play it out under this account?

Also, on a separate note - BK, let me know when you want me to transition the accounts from last game over to you. I've got a spreadsheet with all of the information so they should be ready and available for you to take them under your wing (for future use?) whenever you want.

[Passacaglia]

I think I'm going to give one more day of signups for people to check in and see how their week looks, and to see if I can convince lurker to play. I'll likely send out PMs tonight sometime. I've got Hannibal Lecter down on that account -- wasn't sure if he or she was serious before.

[The Jackal]

Don't forget about Heinz.

[jeheinz72]

Indeed.

(thanks Jackal)

[Lathum]

this may be premature but what kind of weekend schedule you looking at?

I wont be around at all Sat and Sunday and not really at all on Friday, allthough I could put in a conditional vote.

If there is no weekend play count me in.

[Passacaglia]

There will be no weekend play.

Roles have been sent out. Day 1 starts NOW and ends 9 PM Eastern.

FOFC has been blocked for me lately, so I'm going to have to run this Chief Rum style. I'll be able to read the board, but I can't log in. Notification of PMs gets sent to my email so I'll be able to read whatever PMs you send me, but if you want a response, I'll need your e-mail address as well. Probably the best way to get questions answered is to e-mail me, agage1 at gmail dot com.

[PackerFanatic]

C-C-C-Checkin' in.

[The Jackal]

Nice to get up and running

[Hannibal Lecter]

I am checking in, and I can assure you all that my reputation is fallacious. I am in fact a normal member of the community.

[jeheinz72]

Checking in, rules seem simple enough.

[hoopsguy]

Morning all. Ready for a fun game of werewolf.

[hoopsguy]

OK, 9 players, 3 roles, anyone think there is anything other than two wolves?

[Hannibal Lecter]

I think that would be a reasonable number, 3 at the most. We do not after all know how the percentages for lynches and night kills will work out.

[hoopsguy]

My guess is that the percentages more or less work evenly against both teams. We'll see if that is the impact on this particular game, but instinctively I don't really see an advantage for one side with this ruleset.

[Lathum]

boom- check- a- laka

[path12]

I vote YEA to a new game!

Oh, and checking in and all. Two wolves IMO. Seer, BG, five villagers......of which I am one.

[jeheinz72]

I could see 2 or 3 wolves. Not sure which is more likely.

[Lathum]

VOTE HANNIBEL LECHTER

the guy eats human flesh for gods sake

[Hannibal Lecter]

I assure you Mr. Lathum, that if you could taste the succulent tenderness of a human liver, you too would enjoy fine dining. But that is neither here nor there, we are trying to find wolves, not critique culinary styles.

[hoopsguy]

I will not be voting for Hannibal today, as his posts so far have amused me.

[Hannibal Lecter]

I will not be voting for Hannibal today, as his posts so far have amused me.
Thank you sir, and I can assure you it is the wisest choice you could make, I might suggest that we find another choice or even spread the votes out to have minimal chances for everyone to get lynched.

[jeheinz72]

Vote Barkeep

No real reason, Day One, need to get my vote in.

I can't make up my mind if the random factor makes No Lynch a better option than normal or not.

[Lathum]

I a game this small I think no lynch hurts more then helps.

[Hannibal Lecter]

I am also curious as to how many will be awake until the early hours following the electoral masterpiece that is going to be reported tonight, this may lead to a very active evening, or a completely dead evening. I for one am fascinated by this McCain fellow, he may be old, but so is a 1961 Chateau de lief Chianti.

[Hannibal Lecter]

I a game this small I think no lynch hurts more then helps.
Mr Lathum, there is no chance for a no lynch, just the chance to spread the odds out evenly among us all.

vote lathum

[jeheinz72]

How spread do we go though? I mean if we're looking at a 6:3 or 7:2 start, if we concoct it to 1 vote for everyone, that doesn't seem like a great idea.

[jeheinz72]

And that is an interesting question for Pass, is a No Lynch vote akin to abstaining or does it enter in a chance that no one would get lynched.

I'll ask him

[Hannibal Lecter]

Reading the rules I see no chance for a no lynch, the more spread out it is the better off we will be.

[The Jackal]

Well, in the interest of spreading things out -

vote path

If we end up with 1 vote on everyone, that's almost entirely leaving it up to luck? Unless the Duke wants to get crazy early on.

I should be around all night.

[Lathum]

I was just replying to what heinze said, and the wording of it in the rules is very confusing.

[jeheinz72]

Quit forcing your belief on me Lathum :)

[Lathum]

Quit forcing your belief on me Lathum :)

hater ;)

[Barkeep49]

Checking in. The odds are I'm a good guy. Odds also seem to make me think 2 baddies. I like this intimate setting.

[Passacaglia]

Sorry the lynch rules weren't very clear.

Votes of "No Lynch" are not allowed. There will be a lynch every day. I think what I didn't state is that each probability is not independent. So, in my example where the candidates had chances of 40%, 30%, 20%, and 10%, it's not four rolls where each has a seperate chance of dying -- it's one roll that decides which of the four candidates dies. 1-40, the top guy dies, 41-70, the 2nd guy dies, 71-90, the third guy dies, and 91-100, the 4th guy dies.

Also, I knew I forgot to mention something this morning -- we're having some people over to watch election results. I might get a chance to run these real quick (it shouldn't take long), but I'm not sure when. Deadline, obviously, is unchanged.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I've been thinking for awhile about how the game mechanics play out and I'm now of the opinion that a full reveal on Day 1 is the optimal play.

9 players, 3 roles, 2 wolves
- I would suggest that the roled players reveal themselves, but not their role. If we have more than three players who indicate that they have a role then we can cross the bridge of figuring out which players are contending for the same role.
- Today's vote should come down to a two person showdown among people who are not indicating that they have a role.

Each day we can ratchet up the pressure on those players who are denying having a role with our votes. If we get to a point where 4+ players are saying they have a role then we have a throwdown of role information right away and try to flush out who is lying.

The wolves only have a 40% chance of hitting the role they want to hit at night. Even in that case, the bodyguard potentially has a 40% chance of being on that same role.

I'll also indicate right now that I am one of the roled villagers.

I'm rarely an advocate for releasing information early, but this is a small game and I think the rules favor this approach. So I'm suggesting that we follow it.

I'm happy to expand on these ideas further. Perhaps people see some kind of a significant flaw in the logic. If so, then lets hash it out in the thread.

Last point - in the event there are three wolves (highly doubtful) then the math for following this approach becomes even more compelling.

Example:
D1 - we learn about three roled players, no disputes on the roles.
D1 vote - we have a 2/6 chance of getting a wolf instead of a 2/9 chance, since people will not vote for the roled players (right?)

D2 - assuming bad D1 vote, and wolves take out a wolf (non-seer). Seer clears another player, we now have 3 "good" players and 4 wolves in the mix. Chances of getting a wolf climb to 50% with two wolves, 75% if there are three (pretty sure there would be two in this game, but throwing it out there). Odds continue to climb for villagers making good votes, which is how we catch the wolves.

[hoopsguy]

I also recommend keeping our votes pretty narrow - two candidates is ideal if we don't have a sure wolf.

[Lathum]

I have no role

[hoopsguy]

Other areas that improve with release of information:
- seer can scan three "non-roled villagers", better chance of hitting a wolf
- bodyguard can put 40% guard on each of the other two roled villagers, 20% on himself, 0% chance of guarding a wolf
- duke can put 40%/40%/10% on "non-roled villagers", with remaining 10% on himself

All of these things help the roled players act effectively and increase pressure on the wolves.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Interesting thoughts, Hoopsguy. Did I tell you about the guard I ate in a basketball gym? Well I only ate his tongue, but it was delectable.

[The Jackal]

I think your plan has merit hoops, I just have one concern that jumps out - won't it makes the wolves lives very easy by letting them know exactly who to target for the night kills? I suppose it works both ways.. this will force wolves to lie and also give them info on who's who. Is that more beneficial for the village?

[jeheinz72]

I like this plan, in a small game it makes sense as we can't afford to have the one or two bad lynches to kick off as we tend to have at times in a big game.

I am a roled villager

[hoopsguy]

Sure, the wolves are going to get good kills each night, as they can load up 40/40/20 (or some other split) on the roled villagers. But the tradeoff is that we essentially negate the chance of offing our roled villagers by lynch and likely have a 2/3 chance that the seer lives to add another cleared person tomorrow.

Even if we have to out the seer today, he still can only be a 40% target for the wolves with their night kill. And the bodyguard can put a 40% protect on him, meaning that we have about a 75% chance that he is around again tomorrow to clear someone else to take the place of a roled villager.

The goal is to put maximum pressure on the wolves. If they false-claim a role, we challenge that right away. That narrows our vote for today to a 50/50, rather than the 33% (assuming two wolves) that it is now. If they don't false-claim a role then we dial up the heat each day on our lynches.

The only way we get wolves is with good lynches. I think this plan gives us the best chance to have good lynches.

I don't think this plan would work as well in a bigger game, where there would be more vanilla villagers. But I think it is really solid for this smaller game.

Again, don't just take my word for it - run the scenarios through your own head, post them here, whatever helps you draw conclusions on this as good/bad. Discussion is nearly always good for the village.

[hoopsguy]

Roled - Hoops, Heinz
Non-Roled - Lathum

Undisclosed - everyone else

[Hannibal Lecter]

And what would happen if we have 5 people reveal as rolled villagers? We would know that 2 of them are wolves, but not which two. This has very interesting possibilities.

[The Jackal]

Makes pretty good sense to me, the alternative option is leaving it purely up to luck/the hope that someone slips up. I don't have a role.

So that makes..

Claimed Roles:

hoops
heinz

Claimed No Roles:

lathum
jackal

no answer:

everyone else

[The Jackal]

sure, cross-post me. bastard. :)

[jeheinz72]

I think it works out in every case really

If we have
3 R / 6 NR - Then we focus on the 6 and go to town.
4 R / 5 NR - We are either 1/4 & 1/5 or 1/4 and 2/5 and then we can decide which group to go for
5 R / 4 NR - We are 2/5 and either 1/4 or 0/4 and we go after that roled group
6 R / 3 NR - And we go after the roled group.

[hoopsguy]

And what would happen if we have 5 people reveal as rolled villagers? We would know that 2 of them are wolves, but not which two. This has very interesting possibilities.

Yep, gets very interesting if the wolves decide that this is their best tactic to disrupt the plan. But now, assuming two wolves, we are in a position where we flip the script and go after the people claiming roles instead of the vanilla villagers. We start figuring out who is cross-claiming roles and go from there.

I don't think there is a good "hide" option for the wolves if there are two of them. If there were three, then maybe this plan would work better for the wolves. But I still think it is a loser. The best chance the wolves have, as far as I can tell, is to hope that random.org favors them this game. Because if it does not, I think their prospects for winning are pretty dim in D1 reveal scenario.

[path12]

I am also curious as to how many will be awake until the early hours following the electoral masterpiece that is going to be reported tonight, this may lead to a very active evening, or a completely dead evening. I for one am fascinated by this McCain fellow, he may be old, but so is a 1961 Chateau de lief Chianti.

Old meat is tougher isn't it?

[path12]

I vote YEA to a new game!

Oh, and checking in and all. Two wolves IMO. Seer, BG, five villagers......of which I am one.

As indicated here, non-roled.

[hoopsguy]

Path, add the duke to the list of roled villagers. So two wolves, three roled villagers, four non-roled villagers. Or at least, those are my assumptions on wolves/non-roled.

Roles: Hoops, Heinz
Non-Roled: Lathum, Jackal, Path
Undeclared: Hannibal, Barkeep, Render, PackerFanatic

[Hannibal Lecter]

Old meat is tougher isn't it?


It depends how it is treated. I feel this McCain fellow would be nice and tender, years of Senate service has made him soft and pampered, ideal for meat aging!

[Hannibal Lecter]

I am a rolled villager.

[Hannibal Lecter]

I also love to post, especially on the cannibal cooking sites.

[PackerFanatic]

I am a villager with no role.

[hoopsguy]

Roles: Hoops, Heinz, Hannibal
Non-Roled: Lathum, Jackal, Path, PackerFanatic
Undeclared: Barkeep, Render

OK, so at this point it should be interesting to see where our last two remaining "undeclared" people go.

[path12]

Well, since he's undeclared and it's always fun to vote for him:

VOTE RENDER

[Lathum]

I am a rolled villager.

i find it interesting it took you so long to post this. It's almost as if you were trying to decide the best strategy

[path12]

It depends how it is treated. I feel this McCain fellow would be nice and tender, years of Senate service has made him soft and pampered, ideal for meat aging!

I dunno. You've got those POW years to deal with. Maybe if you braised.

[Hannibal Lecter]

i find it interesting it took you so long to post this. It's almost as if you were trying to decide the best strategy
That is exactly what I was doing, trying to deduce the chances of this being successful, vs. the chance that Mr. Hoops is a wolf and trying to get us to reveal. Correct me if I am wrong, but planning and deduction are paramount in this game, are they not?

[Hannibal Lecter]

I dunno. You've got those POW years to deal with. Maybe if you braised.


I have an excellent recipe for smoked wolf shank, with a nice North Carolina red sauce. I do hope to try it out.

[hoopsguy]

The game ends with a villager victory if all the wolves are killed, and a wolf victory if the number of villagers is less than the number of wolves.

Also worth considering - if there are two starting wolves, and there are no weird "double kill" options (no reason to believe this) then they would have to get to 2-1.

Day 1: 7-2
Day 2: 5-2
Day 3: 3-2
Day 4: they got us

But I'm hopeful this strategy makes it nearly impossible for us to have three straight bad lynches and no bodyguard blocks along the way.

If there are three wolves, then the numbers look like this:
D1: 6-3
D2: 4-3
D3: 2-3 (wolves win)

So we have to get a good lynch in the first two days, which is much more likely with the role reveals.

[hoopsguy]

FWIW, I might try some kind of play like this as a wolf, but I would challenge anyone to find a +EV scenario for the wolves with the full disclosure here? Normally I don't try to make bad mathematical plays. Heck, I embrace the math in werewolf more than just about anyone else based on the backlash I often encounter in thread when bringing up those types of arguments :)

I'm pretty up-front with my thoughts as a villager, and that is what I'm doing this time around. I guess everyone gets to find out at the end of the game, or upon my death, if I was being sneaky wolf or straight-forward villager. But I'm the latter much more often than the former.

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE RENDER

Just so I get a vote in, I will try and get back after real voting tonight :)

[hoopsguy]

OK, a little bummed that two reasonably active WW posters haven't been around today to chime in on this and help with some clarity. I'm pretty sure we have lost at least Heinz for the day in terms of voting, so hopefully others will be around tonight to help us set up a good vote. I'll probably wait until around 8PM EST to put in a vote, in hopes that BK/RendeR have an opportunity to take part in the conversation.

[RendeR]

Sorry I've been out folks, I'm home sick and still trying to watch the munchkins while resting.

I dislike the fact that it is hoops coming out with this big plan. yes the numbers work, yes it sounds great, that just makes me even more worried that its a wolf leading us around by the nose, and we know for a fact that is exactly what Hoopsguy is best at =)

[RendeR]

Also I really don;t like the double up vote on me for no reason other than me not being able to get in here today. So this is purely defensive, no offense Lathum old friend.

VOTE LATHUM

[RendeR]

and to join in the "system" I have no role. I'm just another joe the plumber.

[Lathum]

unvote hannibel lechter
vote render

[Barkeep49]

I like the plan. I have a role. This is, in my mind the worst possible outcome with presumably 1 wolf in each camp, but it does give us a good place to go from here. I'll be voting for one of the nonroled people tonight.

[The Jackal]

Looks like RendeR is our 40%er for the night

[Hannibal Lecter]

Do we have an updated list on the reveals?

[The Jackal]

Though, if we're going by hoops system, I thought we were going after the roled people first. Here's the updated list:

Roles: Hoops, Heinz, Hannibal, BK
Non-Roles: Lathum, Jackal, Path, PF, RendeR

[The Jackal]

RendeR 3 - path (82), PF (89), Lathum (94)
Lathum 2 - Hannibal (50), RendeR (92)
BK 1 - Heinz (47)
path 1 - Jackal (54)

[The Jackal]

I'll probably end up switching to one of the roled people unless we've decided not to go that route.

[Hannibal Lecter]

I think the plan was to go for the non rolled people, therefore eliminating risk that the seer would become stew!

[The Jackal]

You're right, I misread what hoops was saying.. and it was starting to seem weird trying to take out one of our roles so quickly. I'll likely stay on path, then.

[hoopsguy]

Hannibal, since you and I are both around - feel like disclosing your role?

1 in 3 shot that you name one that is different than me. I'm willing to go first if you feel strongly about it. Hopefully the others are willing to do their part as well in suggesting their role, or countering if someone claims it.

[hoopsguy]

My part of the plan at this point, since we have four claiming roles and only three that are listed, is to see if we can vet this out between us tonight between now and the deadline.

However, in terms of a vote I don't know if we have enough time (and participation) to settle the showdown tonight. I'm really pleased if we do, but realistically I'm expecting that we'll be setting up two non-roled for the vote tonight.

[Barkeep49]

I'm around and happy to reveal the name of my role first since I was the last to claim a role: BG.

[hoopsguy]

BK's role does not conflict with mine.

[Lathum]

this is interesting

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, BK - I'll defer to you guys on who you would prefer make their claim first. Me or Hannibal.

[Lathum]

you

[hoopsguy]

FWIW, I picked those two because they were in the thread and posting at same time as Hannibal and I were chilling out here.

[hoopsguy]

BK, if you agree that I should go first I'll post my role right now.

[The Jackal]

Since this was all your idea I'd say you might as well go first, not going to be that surprising what you post, what'll be interesting is what Heinz says when he shows up tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

OK, since two people have asked me to go first.

Seer.

[Lathum]

if hannibel isn;t back by the deadline I am switching my vote back to him

[hoopsguy]

Hmm - really do not like the silence here.

[hoopsguy]

Render - Path (82), Packer (89), Lathum (94)
Lathum - Hannibal (50), Render (92)
Barkeep - Heinz (47)
Path - Jackal (54)

No Vote - Hoops, Barkeep

[Lathum]

Hmm - really do not like the silence here.

exactly.

He took a long time to mull over your plan, then when you suggested the reveal he disspeared.

I realize my voting him actualy puts me in more danger, but I really am leary of him right now

[hoopsguy]

What has me concerned is:
- if he is a wolf he should be claiming the third role
- if he is the Duke he should be very worried about Heinz, using his power to put 40% on him and maybe 30% on two other non-roled people
- if he is the BG he should be all over BK
- if he wants to bluff at my role he should be all over me

But I can't come up with a scenario where he should disappear in the middle of this. It kind of leaves the rest of us hanging.

[Lathum]

where is BK, didn't he vote?

[Hannibal Lecter]

unvote lathum
vote hoops the wolf!

[hoopsguy]

Cool, I now trust Hannibal.

[Lathum]

huh?

[Hannibal Lecter]

I appologize I have been doing laundry, I need to change my scan now, since hoops is a wolf. I am interested to think on what he expected to gain by this gambit, and how it could possibly work for him.

In the mean time, anyone care for a bowl of hoops the wolf stew?

[Lathum]

he just called you a wolf, how can you trust him?

[hoopsguy]

I'll use my Duke ability tonight so others trust me as well.

40% on Heinz (most I can do)
10% on me
Split the rest among other non-roled people.

And congrats to the wolves if they have played me down the stretch.

[Hannibal Lecter]

huh?

this should be good!

[Lathum]

unvote Render
Vote Hannibal Lechter

[hoopsguy]

Here is the Duke order that I have submitted. We'll see how it turns out.

40% Heinz
20% Lathum
20% Render
10% Hoops
4% Jackal
3% Path
3% PackerFanatic

[Hannibal Lecter]

so You are saying Messer BarKeep is not the wolf? Simply because Heinze is not here? Very interesting.

[Hannibal Lecter]

unvote Render
Vote Hannibal Lechter

very interesting....

[hoopsguy]

Per rules, I can only list 40% on top candidate.
I have to list 10% on myself.
I left the other multi-vote getters with 20% and split the remaining 10% across the guys who did not get multiple votes.

[hoopsguy]

so You are saying Messer BarKeep is not the wolf? Simply because Heinze is not here? Very interesting.

If BK is a wolf, he had enough balls to claim his role before either of us when we were both around. Kudos to him if he bluffed it.

[Lathum]

i see what hoops did

UNVOTE HL
VOTE JEHEINZE

[hoopsguy]

He would have had to bluff and be lucky that neither of us would challenge his role. Just hope he picked the one-in-three that matched up with the Heinz role.

[Barkeep49]

Vote Hannibal

[hoopsguy]

Hannibal, I would encourage that you scan one of the uncleared folks. We'll have our answers soon enough on Heinz/BK, I expect. The goal should be to continue expanding our COT in the event that one of us is not around tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

VOTE HEINZ

[hoopsguy]

Not that my vote matters - I'm duking the vote today.

[Barkeep49]

Sorry. See that was a bad vote now, but wanted to get a vote in. Hopefully it doesn't effect the %s. I've been tied up with watching the election while doing a pile of work and I forget to check back in here.

[hoopsguy]

My first time ever getting a duke role and I only have 40% chance of hitting my target, plus 10% chance to off myself. Sigh.

After all the damage that dukes have done to me over the years I'm feeling kind of shafted. Unless, of course, Heinz is a good guy. Then I'm feeling lucky that the rules saved me from myself.

[Hannibal Lecter]

We shall see, and hopefully we can dine on wolf!

[hoopsguy]

FWIW, I had a lot of fun scheming this afternoon/evening on how I wanted to see this play out. Would be interested in feedback from others either now (before results go up) or after the game on what they think would have been optimal play.

[Hannibal Lecter]

I think this discussion would be better after all is said and done, we do not know who, is in fact, who yet!

[Passacaglia]

Hey guys -- quick results since I have people over.

hoopsguy dukes the vote to jeheinz72, who is a WOLF!

[Hannibal Lecter]

very nice good sir!

[Lathum]

nice

[Hannibal Lecter]

so we must assume that all the people who revealed as rolled players are telling the truth. One advantage of this playing out this way, we KNOW all the roles and there is no doubt, good to have a 3 deep COT after one vote! Now its just a numbers game, one that we will win!

[hoopsguy]

Well that worked well :)

[hoopsguy]

Hannibal, as I mentioned earlier (and now that you trust me a bit more) I would suggest not scanning either me or BK. One of the three of us is likely to be dead tomorrow. But if I ran the numbers right there is a 75% chance that you are with us tomorrow and in position to reveal another non-roled person as villager/wolf. That will help us to tighten the vise on the wolves even further.

Heck, pick the right person and we can vote nightfall and end this by noon tomorrow :) Assuming two wolves, of course ...

[Lathum]

please scan me

[Hannibal Lecter]

Mr Lathum, I can assure you the list began with you!

[Lathum]

good

[Hannibal Lecter]

It will be interesting not controlling who I scan though, I find this game very intriguing.

[hoopsguy]

I like the idea of scanning Lathum if you are looking to clear players. I got a pretty good villager vibe from him most of the day.

I'm guessing you are going to limit your scan options to three people, with some mix of:
- 40/40/20
- 40/30/30
- 34/33/33

If not, any reason to submit extra names?

[Hannibal Lecter]

I see none, I went with 40/40/20.

[PackerFanatic]

Wow, well done Hoops.

[hoopsguy]

Thanks. Every once in awhile a plan comes together.

I think another Hannibal used to say something along those lines ...

[RendeR]

No results yet?

[PackerFanatic]

Yeah, Heinze was a wolf and got whacked, thanks to a duke-age by Hoops.

[RendeR]

Ahh yes I found the post, I was expeting bold or color or something to set it apart and skimmed right past it.

[The Jackal]

I got caught up in election coverage - nicely done hoops

[Passacaglia]

Morning comes, and you wake up to find everyone all in one piece.

Day 2 ends 9 PM Eastern!

[Barkeep49]

Well if the wolves attacked, they attacked Hannibal because that's who I protected.

[Barkeep49]

As an FYI I did
40 Hannibal
40 Hoops
20 Me

[hoopsguy]

OK, will be interested in seeing what Hannibal has for clearing.

If he has a wolf this is easy.

If not, then he should have a villager. At that point we have four trusted and four non-trusted then I think we can look at creating a 50/50 showdown between two of the players. That probably is our best chance to avoid some kind of manipulation of the vote by the wolves.

Thoughts on this approach?

[jeheinz72]

Slug in a ditch!

[Hannibal Lecter]

vote jackyl
vote nightfall
vote next game

[PackerFanatic]

I am going to go out on a limb and say that Hannibal scanned Jackyl, who is a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

VOTE JACKAL
VOTE NIGHTFALL

[hoopsguy]

Hannibal, who were your three scans and what weights did you put on them?

Might as well have something to talk about between now and Nightfall, if Pass will honor it (may not, may have the access issues he discussed).

[Hannibal Lecter]

I am going to go out on a limb and say that Hannibal scanned Jackyl, who is a wolf.


well jackyls and wolves are related, maybe he is a warejackyl. I do not belive this will affect my recipe!

[Hannibal Lecter]

40% jackyl
40% lathum
20% RendeR

[Lathum]

VOTE JACKAL
VOTE NIGHTFALL

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE JACKAL
VOTE NIGHTFALL

[The Jackal]

vote hannibal

Random.org ftw.

[path12]

Hey guys -- quick results since I have people over.

hoopsguy dukes the vote to jeheinz72, who is a WOLF!

Well done, hoops. Election day trumped WW yesterday.

[path12]

Wow. This quick?

VOTE THE JACKAL

[path12]

Dola,

VOTE NIGHTFALL

[Lathum]

can we get CNN to cal this thing

[The Jackal]

I'd like to use my lifeline.

[Alan T]

I'd like to use my lifeline.

Phone a friend! I'm here for you

[RendeR]

Vote jackal damn dirty wolf!

Vote nightfall.

nice job hoops and Hannibal

[hoopsguy]

So do we get to learn who is the player behind Hannibal at the end of this game? Or will he remain cloaked in anonymity going forward?

[Hannibal Lecter]

I was unaware it was not obvious, I however shall remain as a character.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Although it would delight me to no end for you to guess as to my former identity.

[hoopsguy]

I'll throw out a couple of guesses, along with the reasons for them:

1.) PurdueBrad - posted to Heinz in the "died early" thread, isn't Jackal (already in game) or Clap (spelled too well). Mccollins isn't playing anymore, so that is about all I can think of that would have made the comment I saw in that thread

2.) Alan T - don't think it is him, seems like too laid back a game for him as he normally is more inclined to get into the guts of my analysis (for better or worse)

[Hannibal Lecter]

Very deductive, I thoroughly approve of your logic, it is however fallacious.

[PackerFanatic]

I'll throw out a couple of guesses, along with the reasons for them:

1.) PurdueBrad - posted to Heinz in the "died early" thread, isn't Jackal (already in game) or Clap (spelled too well). Mccollins isn't playing anymore, so that is about all I can think of that would have made the comment I saw in that thread

2.) Alan T - don't think it is him, seems like too laid back a game for him as he normally is more inclined to get into the guts of my analysis (for better or worse)

This was my first guess too, but like you said, spelled way too well for it be a legit guess...

[Hannibal Lecter]

Very deductive, I thoroughly approve of your logic, it is however fallacious.


I realize I used the word Fallacious wrong, but come on its a damn cool word

I could give small clues if it would help.

[Alan T]

I'll throw out a couple of guesses, along with the reasons for them:

1.) PurdueBrad - posted to Heinz in the "died early" thread, isn't Jackal (already in game) or Clap (spelled too well). Mccollins isn't playing anymore, so that is about all I can think of that would have made the comment I saw in that thread

2.) Alan T - don't think it is him, seems like too laid back a game for him as he normally is more inclined to get into the guts of my analysis (for better or worse)


It is not me. I've been swamped lately and only read the last 2 pages of this game. (Meant to make a comment about understanding your pain about the first time getting a duke role and it ended up being a watered down version that took away some of the fun)

[hoopsguy]

I realize I used the word Fallacious wrong, but come on its a damn cool word

I could give small clues if it would help.

I'll leave it to some of the others to guess for the next couple of hours - maybe someone can come up with better guesses than I did.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Hint #1

Unlike the real Dr. Lecter, I gave up on graduate school short of the doctorate, and took a terminal masters instead.

[Barkeep49]

Vote Jackyl
Go Nightfall Go

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, doesn't look like others are playing along. I've got a couple of other guesses on character, but would be willing to go 20 questions style back at you Hannibal.

Quid pro quo, Dr. Lecter?

[Hannibal Lecter]

I would accede to that Mr. Hoopsfellow. I love a good brain... teaser.

[Hannibal Lecter]

This will also give me good reason to re-watch some fine cinema.

[hoopsguy]

OK, two questions, you pick the one (or both, if you are feeling generous) you want to answer:
1.) what "post ranking" does your normal sign-on carry? For example, BK and I are both "Coordinator"
2.) did you participate in the Marvel game last month?

[hoopsguy]

This will also give me good reason to re-watch some fine cinema.

Although I'm intrigued by this puzzle, I would not consider it something I "covet".

But I would be pleased if you were somehow able to work in an anagram to your answer.

[The Jackal]

Phone a friend! I'm here for you

Regis should be contacting you soon.

We've got 30 seconds - what's the plan?

[The Jackal]

At first I thought Hannibal was Alan, and then most recently I thought he was clap because of his posts today. The correct spelling had clap off my list, but I wouldn't put it past him..

So if it isn't clap, must be someone that knows him at least somewhat. Hm.

[jeheinz72]

You guys thought you lynched me but actually I'm playing both as myself and Hannibal.

It makes it easy to be a good villager when I know who the wolves are.

[Hannibal Lecter]

1. I have no idea, I could check, its a large number.
2. Yes, sorry no anagram.

[Hannibal Lecter]

You guys thought you lynched me but actually I'm playing both as myself and Hannibal.

It makes it easy to be a good villager when I know who the wolves are.
You caught me I am Bek.

[The Jackal]

You guys thought you lynched me but actually I'm playing both as myself and Hannibal.

It makes it easy to be a good villager when I know who the wolves are.

Two-timing bastard.

[Lathum]

You guys thought you lynched me but actually I'm playing both as myself and Hannibal.

It makes it easy to be a good villager when I know who the wolves are.

we don't joke about these sort of things.

[Lathum]

and sorry to ruin the fun but Hannibel is Saldana.

I owed him that.

[The Jackal]

By the way.. enough of this "Jackyl" business, I use my hands, not a chainsaw:

http://www.shadowmillproductions.com/photogallery/13ghosts_jackyl.jpg

[Hannibal Lecter]

Mr. Hoops, I am a College Starter.

[hoopsguy]

It appears that Lathum has ruined our game.

[Barkeep49]

Which is too bad. I was enjoying the game.

[RendeR]

Color me confused, but meh, whats it matter?

[Hannibal Lecter]

Please note Lathums Id, do you really believe anything contrived in his pea sized brain?

[hoopsguy]

RendeR, do you have a more interesting way to pass the time while we wait for Passacaglia to call off the rout?

[RendeR]

I'm trying to keep breathing from one moment to the next and still manage to work.....so..no, not really.

[jeheinz72]

we don't joke about these sort of things.

Sure we do. What good is history if we can't laugh at it. ;)

[Passacaglia]

I've got 7 votes for The Jackal, and one for Hannibal.

You lynch The Jackal, who turns out to be a WOLF!

[Hannibal Lecter]

Oh there is a 3rd wolf? interesting!

[Lathum]

umm, so no game over?

[Lathum]

perhaps there was a conversion last night?

[Hannibal Lecter]

There is no mention of that it in the rules. But that does not eliminate it from happening.

[hoopsguy]

OK, same drill as last time. We'll have anywhere from 2-4 cleared people tomorrow, keep whittling away the non-cleared. This should be pretty much a paint-by-numbers approach to the win.

[Passacaglia]

Morning arrives, and you awake to find both Barkeep49 and Hannibal Lecter missing. Barkeep49 was the bodyguard! Hannibal Lecter was the Seer!

[hoopsguy]

OK, this is a surprise result. 3 wolves in a 9 person game, with a multi-kill option? Really? I know we were rolling them early, but did you have to invoke some kind of anti-slaughter rule logic? :)

[hoopsguy]

I'm not going to be around the thread all that much today. I haven't really done extensive vote/post analysis, in part because I thought the game was over when Hannibal nailed Jackal yesterday. I'll try to get some of that done today, time permitting.

In the meantime, I guess we have a ballgame on our hands again.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Unfortunate.

[hoopsguy]

Well, in the interest of spreading things out -

vote path

If we end up with 1 vote on everyone, that's almost entirely leaving it up to luck? Unless the Duke wants to get crazy early on.

I should be around all night.

Looking at D1 stuff, Heinz voted BK - nothing to learn there.

In a game where leaving a lose vote out there means that there is a % chance that they are lynched, I don't think that the wolves would vote one of their own.

Hopefully I'm not giving the wolves too much credit here, but if this vote stayed on Path (at least until 8:50 or so) then he nudges up in trust for me today.

[hoopsguy]

I have no role

Immediately follows along with the plan I put forward. Comes out with "no role" which probably puts him at a little higher risk of a D1 lynch.

This, coupled with him asking to be scanned on N1, makes me put Lathum a little higher on the trust spectrum as well.

So, that leaves RendeR and PackerFanatic as guys I haven't found a reason to back so far. I'm running out of time this morning, but if I can't find some kind of reason to make me less suspicious then I would probably recommend looking at these two for a run-off today.

[hoopsguy]

I am a villager with no role.

Comes in after Heinz/Jackal have already split on their reveals. Nothing substantial that I take from this one way or the other at this point.

Kinda sucks that I give Lathum credit for being first, and not PF, but Lathum's response was immediate and did not suggest that there was time to collaborate with other wolves on the best way to counter my plan. The same is not necessarily true for PF.

[hoopsguy]

Also worth considering - if there are two starting wolves, and there are no weird "double kill" options (no reason to believe this) then they would have to get to 2-1.

Well, neither of these assumptions worked out very well :banghead:

[hoopsguy]

VOTE RENDER

Just so I get a vote in, I will try and get back after real voting tonight :)

2nd vote on RendeR, following Path's earlier vote.

[hoopsguy]

Also I really don;t like the double up vote on me for no reason other than me not being able to get in here today. So this is purely defensive, no offense Lathum old friend.

VOTE LATHUM

unvote hannibel lechter
vote render

A pair of defensive votes, setting up the leading choices for the vote prior to the late fireworks. Not sure there is anything to take from either player that is inherently wolfish.

[hoopsguy]

Looks like RendeR is our 40%er for the night

Jackal is pushing RendeR - trying to help Lathum or just happy that it isn't a wolf?

I don't think that he makes this post if RendeR is a wolf.

So, I've got a fraction of D1 trust for three of the non-cleared players. Although I'm not married to it, at this point I think I'm going to

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

[PackerFanatic]

I've barely had enough time to check in and see how things are going, let alone talk with other wolves. I responded to the reveal as soon as I got here.

[hoopsguy]

Packer, I'm all for people building stronger cases for their votes than the one I've put together. Like I said, I'm willing to be talked out of this one but there should be some kind of a counter-argument made if that is the goal.

[RendeR]

I am starting to feel better folks, this cold has kicked my ass this week. I think Hoops is doing a pretty good job in the latest vote review here. THough I'm not sure I'd put so much faith in the wolves not voting for one of their own, even with the randomness involved I think they'd have tried to get one of their own trusted that way as soon as possible figuring if they get screwed by the dice then the game is pretty much over either way.

Based on what he's posted so far I'm in agreement though, lets take down Packer tonight and see if the fur finally falls dead.

[RendeR]

I'm in the same boat as you Packer, I've been sick all week and haven't logged in or posted much at all. No time to interact with the other wolves if I were one either. Do you have anything on anyone else that might give us reason to look at say, path or Lathum? Hoops trusts them a little more than us but I'm not sure I agree totally with his reasoning. I give the wolves far more credit than I probably should though.

[PackerFanatic]

I have nothing else than what has already been posted, hence my bad position here.

[path12]

I expected the game to be over with last night as well. We should be able to figure this one out, there's only four and a half pages. I will have some time later this morning to dig in.

[hoopsguy]

I know everyone has lives, and other stuff to do, blah blah blah.

If we miss today tomorrow is not going to be any easier if no one posts today.

No seer is coming along to make this easier for the rest of us. No bodyguard is going to get a block and reveal who was the attacker. We remaining villagers get to solve this one on our own.

Assuming there is only one wolf left, they have to be the last person standing based on the rules. So they are going to have to grind it out the rest of the way.

[hoopsguy]

You will be told who you protect, and you will know you have protected successfully if there is no kill (this means there are no conversions)

I initially took this to mean that conversion was not in the game. This is why I haven't wasted any time speculating about a conversion, lack of a kill on N1, etc. If others read it differently, let me know.

[path12]

The wolves make their kill at night. They will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of dying from the wolves that night. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40% (this number may be changed without announcement to the village as we approach endgame).

I'm going to read this as evidence that the two night kills were not a special ability or a sign of two wolves, rather that if random.org is nice to the wolves that more than one kill per night may occur.

[path12]

Morning comes, and you wake up to find everyone all in one piece.

Day 2 ends 9 PM Eastern!

Speculating some more -- possibly if the kill% number is not rolled one night then there is a chance for multiple kills in later nights?

[path12]

OK, just reread the entire thread. Not a lot to go on especially after day 1 because of the early call of Jackal being bad.

So we've got five players left. hoops is good. I know I am a villager, granted nobody else can bank on that. So that leaves three.

The wolf that is left (has to be just one, right?) has to get past everyone and be last standing. He is going to kill hoops tonight I'd imagine. If my speculation above is on target, then I think I'd try and focus as high a percentage as possible on one target and try and get a guaranteed kill, rather than try and stay alive in a dwindling lynch pool and try for multiple targets at night.

Lathum has struck me as a villager thus far, though his comment about a conversion this morning hit me odd for some reason. But for now he is my least likely of the three.

Packer and RendeR are pretty much a tossup in my mind. Packer came in second twice so far, both in declaring he had no role and in his second vote for RendeR day 1. RendeR just hasn't been around much and therefore hasn't left much of a trail to analyze.

My call for today then is between RendeR and PackerFanatic....

I don't recall offhand whether it is possible for a lynch not to occur with bad rolls or if it has to happen and the % of votes just determines which candidate it is. If the former is true we should gather around one candidate. If the latter then two would be fine.

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

[Passacaglia]

I'm going to read this as evidence that the two night kills were not a special ability or a sign of two wolves, rather that if random.org is nice to the wolves that more than one kill per night may occur.

I feel I should clarify at this point. The intent of the rules were such that only one kill was possible each night, but two kills were made last night due to GM error.

[Lathum]

not a whole lot to analyze.

vote Packerfanatic

[hoopsguy]

Packer, let's assume you are a villager. Who do you think is the most likely to be a wolf? Why?

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE RENDER

I can't just let it be a landslide on me.

[hoopsguy]

Packer, I'm potentially willing to be talked into switching. But a vote + "I won't let it be a landslide" is not what I would consider a compelling argument.

I don't think any of the others had a vote, so what made you pick RendeR instead of Path or Lathum?

[PackerFanatic]

I have no good reason to really go after anyone, to be honest, and I don't have the time right now to read back through the thread. I probably won't be able to before deadline either, as well are celebrating my daughter's first birthday tonight. I just wanted to get a vote out so someone else had a chance to get lynched too, heh. I know I played this like crap, but that is the best I can do.

[RendeR]

I'm going to go with my gut right now. Lathum won;t like it but alas such is our WW relationship ;)

Lathum's vote was on hannibal early then he switched to me when I voted for him. I can't shake the feeling that his vote on hannibal wasn't a random choice.

VOTE LATHUM