WW LXXXV -- Life Contingencies II (GAME OVER)

[Passacaglia]

Player List:

1. Hannibal Lecter -- Lynched Day 3, Wolf
2. The Jackal -- Lynched Day 2, Villager
3. RendeR -- Surviving Villager Loser
4. Barkeep49 -- Lynched Day 1, Villager
5. jeheinz72 -- Killed Night 1, Bodyguard
6. Alan T -- Lynched Day 5, Villager
7. Lathum -- Killed Night 2, Duke
8. path12 -- Surviving Wolf Winner
9. PackerFanatic -- Lynched Day 4, Villager
10. Danny -- Killed Night 3, Seer
11. hoopsguy -- Killed Night 4, Villager
12. Chief Rum -- Surviving Wolf Winner

[Passacaglia]

ules: Standard werewolf, with a day deadline of 9 PM Eastern time. Everyone must vote for someone they would like to see die. Failure to vote will result in an unspecified penalty that will increase with each offense. All votes must be for a player in the game (i.e. No votes of "No Lynch" are accepted), and must be in bold. The wolves must decide their night-kill strategy by 7 AM Eastern time.

Lately, there's been a movement against the use of random.org in games for various reasons. I agree with most of those reasons, but despite that, this game will use random.org liberally. I believe that this still offers several opportunities for strategic planning, but if you're against such randomness, then this game might not be for you.

Everyone votes on who they want to die, and one player will die as a result of the vote. However, that player will not necessarily be the one with the most votes. Instead, the number of votes for a player will represent the probability that he dies. For example, say there are 10 players in the game. 4 vote for Passacaglia, 3 vote for claphamsa, 2 vote for jeheinz72, and 1 votes for Alan T. Passacaglia has a 4/10 = 40% chance of dying, claphamsa has a 3/10 = 30% chance of dying, jeheinz72 has a 2/10 = 20% chance of dying, and Alan T has a 1/10 = 10% chance of dying.

The wolves make their kill at night. They will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of dying from the wolves that night. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40% (this number may be changed without announcement to the village as we approach endgame).

The bodyguard may protect one player per night. He or she will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of being protected that night. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40%, and the bodyguard himself cannot have a percentage greater than 20%. You will be told who you protect, and you will know you have protected successfully if there is no kill (this means there are no conversions). If you protect someone successfully, the wolves will know who you protected (i.e. who they tried to kill).

The seer may find the allegiance of one player per night. He or she will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of being viewed that night. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40% (this number may be changed without announcement to the village as we approach endgame).

The duke may choose a different set of probabilities for the lynch vote one day during the game. He or she will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of being lynched that day. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40%. The duke himself must have a percentage of at least 10%. The duke's identity will be revealed when this happens.

The game ends with a villager victory if all the wolves are killed, and a wolf victory if the number of villagers is less than the number of wolves.

[Hannibal Lecter]

I am willing to partake. I am still waiting for my Seemab Naan.

[The Jackal]

Count me in.

[RendeR]

I fear rejoining means I die on night 1 =)


in of course.

[The Jackal]

You may as well copy and paste the rules in that second post, we certainly remember them but people are pretty lazy.

[Barkeep49]

I will play again. Hopefully we can get a nice big crowd and see how the game would play out writ large.

[jeheinz72]

Thank you sir may I have another!

[Alan T]

I'll play. I can't promise that I'll be able to be here that much because things are pretty busy for me right now (but some might prefer me that way anyways).

Mainly playing though because I feel bad that everyone else is taking WW vacation at the same time I need it and I don't want to see the games struggle to get people. So I'll do my best to keep up.

[Lathum]

in

[path12]

In

[PackerFanatic]

Ah what the hell - in.

[Danny]

Will this be starting next week? I have my last big presentation on Thursday and for the most part have pretty clear sailing until the end of semester with the exception of some weekly written assignments. So, I should be able to play if it starts next week.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Danny my good studious fellow! It certainly wont start before Thursday, since we all need a day to prepare, and Monday is highly likely as a target start date, I feel it would serve you well to play in any case!

[hoopsguy]

I'll give this a shot, although I'm not sure how much time I'll have next week.

[Chief Rum]

Will this end before Thanksgiving? If so, I am in.

[Passacaglia]

We might as well do a Monday start, which should still end the game before Thanksgiving.

[Alan T]

We might as well do a Monday start, which should still end the game before Thanksgiving.

Ok, well with a Monday start, I'll only have 2 days before I go out of town and that cuts down my participation even more.. but what the heck, I'll still play.

[Passacaglia]

Roles have been sent out. Day 1 ends Monday, 9 PM Eastern.

[Barkeep49]

I do not have a role this time.

[The Jackal]

Ditto.

[Lathum]

I'm the duke and plan on killing hoops

[Chief Rum]

El vilagerino checking in. I totally just made that word up.

Interesting rule set. I think it's going to make it damn hard to make anything stick on anyone, though.

I am working my two jobs, as usual on Mondays, so I will have to consider carefully on whom I will leave my vote before I leave for work tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

I'm the duke and plan on killing hoops

Bummer - you'll be cleared by killing a villager.

[hoopsguy]

What do people think about the full reveal option again? We do not have that many more people than last time - does it still make sense? I haven't run any scenarios in my head on this yet, but figured it was a question worth asking.

12 players - 3 or 4 wolves, given the ruleset? I'm guessing 3, but maybe with a brutal or something like that.

I'm not sure how my day/week will stack up in terms of availability for discussion. I do know that I won't have as much time as I have in many previous games, but will try to pull my weight in terms of participation.

[Passacaglia]

Just a reminder that I can read the board and PMs from work, but can't reply, so if you have questions, either email me at agage1 AT gmail DOT com, or put your email address in your PM to me.

[Alan T]

What do people think about the full reveal option again? We do not have that many more people than last time - does it still make sense? I haven't run any scenarios in my head on this yet, but figured it was a question worth asking.

12 players - 3 or 4 wolves, given the ruleset? I'm guessing 3, but maybe with a brutal or something like that.

I'm not sure how my day/week will stack up in terms of availability for discussion. I do know that I won't have as much time as I have in many previous games, but will try to pull my weight in terms of participation.

What was the game balance in the last one of these? Seer/bodyguard/duke for good guys, 3 wolves with a double kill ability for the wolves? How many players?


I have no role myself this game, and as mentioned I'll probably be here an ok amount today and tommorrow.. but after that my availability will be sketchy as I travel.

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, I don't recall being in a full reveal game, so I can't speak to the wisdom of that. But then I am role-less in this one, so I guess it foesn;t cost me much to say that. I'll leave arguments for or nay to those who do have roles.

I need to put in a vote now, since I am leaving for the day. So I went with random,org.

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

Sorry PF. Obviously, anyone looking to build a vote around my initial vote should be viewed with suspicion, as I have no reason for this vote except that's who came up. I hope there is more to go on tonight for my vote tomorrow.

[PackerFanatic]

Almost forgot about this game until I got my PM!

I am a non-roled villager.

VOTE CHIEF RUM

And I would more than love to switch to someone worthwhile, but right now I have to defend myself :)

[Hannibal Lecter]

Oh welcome good freinds! I just checked in, need to allow this account to send me email notifications. I am just a villager, but I have found an excellent recipe for Wolf Goulash. Would you all care to join me this evening?

[jeheinz72]

Checking in again, as a villager (for reals this time).

As far as a full-reveal, I think it could work. I knew it really pooped in our stew last game to have to deal with it, and frankly it took a lucky turn and some nice play by RendeR to eek out that W.

With 12 players, I wouldn't rule out 4 wolves. If nothing else but because of the whole thing where the wolves actually have to out-number the village instead of 1:1.

Also, we actually didn't have a double-kill ability last game. That was a makeup call by our GM because our night orders got mixed up the previous day (so he basically killed who should've died on Night One, on Night Two)

[PackerFanatic]

Also, we actually didn't have a double-kill ability last game. That was a makeup call by our GM because our night orders got mixed up the previous day (so he basically killed who should've died on Night One, on Night Two)

After no NK the first night, I figured that was the case.

[RendeR]

Villager this time, no fun for RendeR

[Danny]

Checking in

My schedule is about the same as it was for Hoopsguy Apocalypse game.

I get home from work about 3pm pacific time today and then about 2:30pm or so Wed/Fri and on Tue/Thu I only have about an hour after work before I leave for class.

[The Jackal]

I see no reason to not do a full reveal, but then again I'm just vanilla. Up to the important people, I'd suppose.

[jeheinz72]

Well I guess the main questions would be

A) Was it beneficial last time (I think yes)
B) What could the wolves have done differently last time than what we did (I don't really think so, but if there are 4 of them, then maybe)
C) Does more players hamper it's effectiveness (possibly)

[Hannibal Lecter]

Well at least we are talking now.

[path12]

What was the game balance in the last one of these? Seer/bodyguard/duke for good guys, 3 wolves with a double kill ability for the wolves? How many players?

Checking in. I believe that was the balance last time, I think we only had 9 for that game so three more this time?

[Alan T]

Well I guess the main questions would be

A) Was it beneficial last time (I think yes)
B) What could the wolves have done differently last time than what we did (I don't really think so, but if there are 4 of them, then maybe)
C) Does more players hamper it's effectiveness (possibly)


Isn't a full reveal about increasing the odds of getting a wolf, while also increasing the chance of the bodyguard keeping the important role(s) safe?

No one ever answered my questions about what the setup was last time, so I can't really give a comparison to last game unless someone wants to help me out with that info.

numberswise though in a game of 9 players, 3 good roles and 2 wolves and no information on who is who..if you are a non-rolled villager you end up with a 1 in 4 (25%) chance of getting a wolf, a 37.5% chance of hitting a good role and a 37.5% chance of hitting another non-rolled villager.

If you are a villager with a role, but don't know who the other rolled villagers are, in the same 9 player game the percentages change to: 25% chance of getting a wolf, 25% chance of hitting another rolled villager and a 50% chance of hitting a villager without a role.

Now in this hypothetical 9 person game, if all of the roles were revealed, you would know who the three good guys are theoretically (barring fake reveals which likely would blow up in the wolves face anyways).. so that changes the same percentages again. If you were a non-rolled villager and know who the three villager roles are, you would have a 40% chance of hitting a wolf, 0% chance of hitting a good villager role, and a 60% chance of hitting a non-rolled villager.

-------------------------------------

So now since this game has 12 players, if we assume there are 3 rolled good guys and either 3 or 4 wolves, we can have the following stats:

3 wolves, no reveal:

Chance for a non-rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 27%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick a roled villager: 27%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick another non-rolled villager: 45%

Chance for a rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 27%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick another rolled villager: 18%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick a non-rolled villager: 55%


3 wolves with reveal:

Chance for a non-rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 43%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick a roled villager: 0%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick another non-rolled villager: 57%

Chance for a rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 38%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick another rolled villager: 0%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick a non-rolled villager: 63%


4 wolves, no reveal:

Chance for a non-rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 36%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick a roled villager: 27%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick another non-rolled villager: 36%

Chance for a rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 36%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick another rolled villager: 18%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick a non-rolled villager: 45%



4 wolves with reveal:

Chance for a non-rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 57%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick a roled villager: 0%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick another non-rolled villager: 43%

Chance for a rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 50%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick another rolled villager: 0%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick a non-rolled villager: 50%

[Alan T]

I did most of that math on the fly real quick.. so if any of it is incorrect, I am sure someone will likely correct me.. but looking at it, if people who are assuming there are 4 wolves this time are correct.. that means with a full reveal, we have a better chance of hitting a wolf than not hitting a wolf today. Since this game is all about percentages, trying to find the highest probability does seem in our best interest.

I have very little to lose from a full reveal as I am just a villager, and I have the most to gain from a reveal as well.. but I think the math adds up that it is in our favor.

[path12]

Well I guess the main questions would be

A) Was it beneficial last time (I think yes)
B) What could the wolves have done differently last time than what we did (I don't really think so, but if there are 4 of them, then maybe)
C) Does more players hamper it's effectiveness (possibly)

I would agree that it was beneficial last time. I would also agree that more players likely could hamper the effectiveness somewhat just based on the format.

I'd like to know more about B. IIRC you claimed a role last time and that's how you got caught, right? Why did you do that? I guess what I don't understand is why a wolf would claim a role in this situation.

[Alan T]

I would agree that it was beneficial last time. I would also agree that more players likely could hamper the effectiveness somewhat just based on the format.



With more players, the reveal is only less effective if there are the same number of wolves as your percentages go down.

I am not sold on the idea that there are four wolves this game, that feels like overboard a bit to me. I think what someone else mentioned that an additional wolf brutal role or something being added would be the balance for 3 additional players.

Either way though, the question isn't whether or not the full reveal would be more effective this game than last game. The question is would the full reveal be more effective than no full reveal this game? The math suggests that even if there are still only 3 wolves this game, you still give more than half of us an almost 50/50 shot at guessing a wolf this game with a full reveal plus the added benefit of not accidentally killing off the seer or bodyguard due to bad luck with random numbers.

[hoopsguy]

Short version with reveals = no chance of lynching a roled player. Roled players can act optimally with their powers (don't end up scanning roled player, unless they want to validate claim, better chance of scanning a wolf as a by-product).

Downside = wolves know who to go after with their actions, although the % chance is only 40% that they get their target. But with 3 revealed players, they are going to get one of the roled players on N1 and have an 80% chance of getting a roled player on N2.

[Lathum]

So what do you all think about the voting today?

Do we try and narrow things down or spread them out, the randomness makes it a little different then usual.

[hoopsguy]

Also, if Lathum's initial post is to be trusted we have already had one player reveal their role. If someone else is the Duke they would likely Duke him today, thus removing the importance of our vote.

Assuming Lathum goes unchallenged as the Duke, I would like to find out if he really does intend to Duke me to prove his role. If he does, I would suggest that the rest of you just go ahead and vote for me, allowing him to keep his Duke power for a day where he might actually benefit the village. I guess I'm saying I would rather be voted out, while keeping a power in play for the villagers, than have him clear himself voting me out and thus burn the power and a villager in one fell swoop.

[hoopsguy]

Speak of the devil ...

Lathum, were you serious about being the Duke and are you planning to snuff me with it? If not, I'm not going to waste a lot more time arguing for/against something that may have been a joke post.

[jeheinz72]

I'd like to know more about B. IIRC you claimed a role last time and that's how you got caught, right? Why did you do that? I guess what I don't understand is why a wolf would claim a role in this situation.

Well basically it was just to increase odds. Last game there were 9 players - 3 wolves, 3 villagers, 3 rolled-villagers.

If we all had told the truth, we would've had a bucket of the 3 roled players (all instantly cleared) and 6 non-rolled players (which would be half us, half non-rolled villagers)

Basically we decided that giving the village such a clear roadmap was a bad idea, so I'd shake it up and at least make it a 4/5 split making neither group "certain". It's funny, the village actually voted into the group that had the lower odds of getting a wolf with the biggest risk (1 out of 4 with a miss lynching a roled player rather than 2 out of 5 with a miss lynching a vanilla)

I guess by B I wondered if there was some other way that it could be looked at by the wolves to be a more beneficial situation for them. I don't tend to think so but I admittedly haven't thought too much on it after getting lynched :D

[jeheinz72]

That's the catch with Alan's math, those numbers I believe all pertain as if the wolves opt to not throw a red herring. Which they may not do and gets to where the # of people matters. Before the options were 4/5 or 3/6, here it'd be 3/9 or 4/8.

Looking at the cases then

A) 3 wolves, no herring

3 cleared rolled villagers vs 9 non-rolled, comprised of a 6/3 split (villagers/wolves)

B) 4 wolves, no herring

3 cleared rolled villagers vs 9 non-rolled, comprised of a 5/4 split

C) 3 wolves, herring

A group of 3/1 (roled/wolves) vs 8 non-rolled, comprised of a 6/2 split

D) 4 wolves, herring

A group of 3/1 (roled/wolves) vs 8 non-rolled, comprised of a 5/3 split

E) 4 wolves, double-herring

A group of 3/2 (roled/wolves) vs 7 non-rolled, comprised of a 5/2 split

[jeheinz72]

I'd surmise that they would indeed throw a fake-role-reveal into the mix, given that I think in either overall case (3 or 4 wolves) they're better off of they do. But that could be my blinders on from the decision I made last game.

If there are 4 wolves though, I think the wolves would be pretty foolish to just let us reveal and not throw a fake in.

With 3, it's a little tighter, mainly because with 3 wolves they can less afford to sacrifice a wolf

But, I'm still open to the idea even with that. Looking at last game, it was basically a coin-flip. The village had the game at the end, and still had a shot to win even with the 66/33 split on the final roll of the dice.

[Lathum]

Speak of the devil ...

Lathum, were you serious about being the Duke and are you planning to snuff me with it? If not, I'm not going to waste a lot more time arguing for/against something that may have been a joke post.

I was gonna duke to you but have since changed my mind.

[Lathum]

dola- for now. Hoops' post could be a way to try and gain trust by saying he was willing to go down early.

[Alan T]

I'd surmise that they would indeed throw a fake-role-reveal into the mix, given that I think in either overall case (3 or 4 wolves) they're better off of they do. But that could be my blinders on from the decision I made last game.

If there are 4 wolves though, I think the wolves would be pretty foolish to just let us reveal and not throw a fake in.

With 3, it's a little tighter, mainly because with 3 wolves they can less afford to sacrifice a wolf

But, I'm still open to the idea even with that. Looking at last game, it was basically a coin-flip. The village had the game at the end, and still had a shot to win even with the 66/33 split on the final roll of the dice.

I think it is a poor decision for them to throw a red herring in, as the smart move for the villagers then would be to focus on an even smaller group of players that are all either non-rolled villagers or wolves. The other group that contains the seer can help find out which of those four are lying.

[jeheinz72]

I think it is a poor decision for them to throw a red herring in, as the smart move for the villagers then would be to focus on an even smaller group of players that are all either non-rolled villagers or wolves. The other group that contains the seer can help find out which of those four are lying.

Yeah but they're kind of forced. I mean if the reveal happens and we have a bucket of 3 cleared, un-contested roled villagers in one pile and the other pile is 9 people where all the wolves are and that we at worst have a 1/3rds chance off the bat of clearing people, it's Game Over. Even if we miss, with a Seer scan we can clear someone or get a wolf and now it's just about to the point where we'll have a really good idea on the wolves.


Anyhow, since Lathum is apparently out of the bag, I'll go ahead and state, I do have a role.

If someone needs me to say which role, I'll entertain that idea.

[Lathum]

I wouldnt go crazy about the fact I revealed, how often in a game with the Duke role do we make it past the second day NOT knowing who they are?

[Alan T]

Yeah but they're kind of forced. I mean if the reveal happens and we have a bucket of 3 cleared, un-contested roled villagers in one pile and the other pile is 9 people where all the wolves are and that we at worst have a 1/3rds chance off the bat of clearing people, it's Game Over. Even if we miss, with a Seer scan we can clear someone or get a wolf and now it's just about to the point where we'll have a really good idea on the wolves.


Anyhow, since Lathum is apparently out of the bag, I'll go ahead and state, I do have a role.

If someone needs me to say which role, I'll entertain that idea.


I think mathematically though the reveal hurts the wolves no matter which way they go. That is the point of the percentages.

I think that play if they chose to do so might make it more likely for us to kill a non-rolled villager on day 1, but it would also make it far easier to find one of them for sure, and still wouldn't help them keep the groups apart seperated really as they still would have the remainder wolves in that small group anyhows.

I don't really think the move you talk about there is as much of a curve ball as you think it does. But that said, maybe I'm wrong... and they will try it. I wouldn't mind that.

[jeheinz72]

Oh I agree, just saying that since we're partway there...

[jeheinz72]

I think mathematically though the reveal hurts the wolves no matter which way they go. That is the point of the percentages.

I think that play if they chose to do so might make it more likely for us to kill a non-rolled villager on day 1, but it would also make it far easier to find one of them for sure, and still wouldn't help them keep the groups apart seperated really as they still would have the remainder wolves in that small group anyhows.

I don't really think the move you talk about there is as much of a curve ball as you think it does. But that said, maybe I'm wrong... and they will try it. I wouldn't mind that.

It's not a big curveball, but it does create an interesting scenario for the village. I'd agree that the village *should* go for the non-roled group still, but I thought that last game as well and they didn't (and happened to get me with some revealing of actual roles after I was gone)

[hoopsguy]

dola- for now. Hoops' post could be a way to try and gain trust by saying he was willing to go down early.

If I'm going to go out on D1 I would rather you not Duke me to do it.

I would still rather not go down on D1, all things being equal. I just think it would be worse overall to lose villager + Duke power in same cycle. Particularly if no one is challenging you as Duke ... if that is still the case by the start of N1 then I'm (assuming I'm still alive) going to work with the idea that you are the Duke and would probably encourage everyone else to do the same.

[hoopsguy]

It's not a big curveball, but it does create an interesting scenario for the village. I'd agree that the village *should* go for the non-roled group still, but I thought that last game as well and they didn't (and happened to get me with some revealing of actual roles after I was gone)

FWIW, the village did vote into the "villager" pile on D1 last game. I just went against it with my Duke decision at the end of the day.

[jeheinz72]

FWIW, the village did vote into the "villager" pile on D1 last game. I just went against it with my Duke decision at the end of the day.

True, I forgot about that. Mainly because I knew I was dead and ceased caring. :D

[path12]

I wouldnt go crazy about the fact I revealed, how often in a game with the Duke role do we make it past the second day NOT knowing who they are?

Quite a few, I think. So are you going to duke somebody today? I'm trying to figure out my vote.

[Lathum]

I doubt I will duke anyone today.

[Lathum]

Vote Hoopsguy

[path12]

I doubt I will duke anyone today.

OK then. I don't see any good reason to come out as the duke and not prove that ability and risk getting killed without using it, so despite the risk of doing so:

VOTE LATHUM

[RendeR]

*ponder ponder ponder*

[Alan T]

OK then. I don't see any good reason to come out as the duke and not prove that ability and risk getting killed without using it, so despite the risk of doing so:

VOTE LATHUM


I don't like this vote at all. The Duke isn't really one of those roles that people tend to fake-reveal as. The sentence for that is usually not a very good one. His getting that information out also should likely be viewed as trusted unless it is disputed by someone else. If that ends up being the case, the duke and fake duke can have a duke-off and settle that real quick.

Your vote here makes very little sense to me.. plus since you aren't one of the revealed roles, the worst mistake I make here is voting off an ordinary villager.

Vote Path

[PackerFanatic]

Path does have a point though, Alan - why reveal and (obviously) risk getting killed, but then not use your power? (or at least say you aren't using your power...)

[RendeR]

Has everyone checked in and caught up yet? because I'm rather stumped as to why Lathum would reveal the actual role he has if he were NOT that role. its a lose lose move.

[Alan T]

Path does have a point though, Alan - why reveal and (obviously) risk getting killed, but then not use your power? (or at least say you aren't using your power...)


Why does he have to use his power now? There is nothing that says he should use his power right now. Do you honestly think that a wolf is going to fake reveal as the duke? Why on earth would he do that?

[jeheinz72]

I agree that Lathum doesn't *have* to Duke someone and is likely the Duke.

I don't quite see it though as an indictment on path

[Lathum]

OK then. I don't see any good reason to come out as the duke and not prove that ability and risk getting killed without using it, so despite the risk of doing so:

VOTE LATHUM

this screams set up move to me.

I can easily see a scenerio where Path fake reveals as the Duke later in the game and points to this post.

UNVOTE HOOPSGUY
VOTE PATH

[jeheinz72]

I'm going off the map

Vote TheJackal


He's playing, right?

[Lathum]

Why does he have to use his power now? There is nothing that says he should use his power right now. Do you honestly think that a wolf is going to fake reveal as the duke? Why on earth would he do that?

exactly, plus what do I gain from using it today. I would much rather save the ability for when there is some actual info on the players.

Especialy in a game where a lynch isn't guarenteed to be the player with the most votes.

Right now there are 11 unknowns in this game to me so why duke someone when it really doesn't matter who gets killed?

[Alan T]

I agree that Lathum doesn't *have* to Duke someone and is likely the Duke.

I don't quite see it though as an indictment on path

I feel there is no good reason for him to push that vote there (as if he was the real duke he would just attempt to duke Lathum instead). The way he framed it feels to me more like a case of trying to subtly push the vote away from the voting pool that we tried to narrow earlier in our afternoon discussions.

I felt there was virtually 0 upside for his vote in a villager point of view and only bad reasons for it.

[Lathum]

I think due to the random factor we all need to vote Path. I have an uncontested reveal as a villager role and he still voted for me.

Not in out best interest.

[Lathum]

I would like to see Path get more votes, but if he doesn't I will probably duke to him.



Thoughts?

[Alan T]

I would like to see Path get more votes, but if he doesn't I will probably duke to him.



Thoughts?

I think part of the point of a narrowed voting pool is there are less chances to be wrong on a day 1 vote than normal. So of interest to me is seeing who ends up being right and wrong when we nail our first wolf. Whether that is today, tommorrow, day 3 or whatever. I think because of the percentages aspect of this game, a wolf might be a bit less likely to throw a random vote on another wolf (and risk even a small chance of their death).

So I think I'd rather just leave it as you aren't going to duke path or anyone else today.. and then when you feel the time is right (whether today or tommorrow or whenever) you use it as you feel. By claiming you are going to duke him anyways, it will possibly cause people to vote differently then they might have otherwise.

[jeheinz72]

I dunno, this whole thing screams villager/villager to me.

[Alan T]

I dunno, this whole thing screams villager/villager to me.


Maybe you are right. The way Path did it gives my gut a huge wolf feeling however. My gut seems to be rather hit or miss on these things though, so by all means I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything here. I'm just explaining what I feel and why my vote is going there today.

Anyhows, I'm heading out for a bit. I'll be back later before deadline though.

[Barkeep49]

The only scenario I see for a fake Duke reveal is if Pass provided the bad guys with a list of the roles in the game and Duke wasn't on the list. I don't view this as likely. I'm going to need to cast my vote in about 30 minutes and have no clue where I'm going to put it.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum is 40% likely to be the night kill if the other roles are not revealed, unless the wolves feel like they have a good handle on him and are willing to risk him using his ability in place of the vote. This argues for him using his ability today. Whether or not he decides to be up-front with us about that in the thread is entirely at his discretion.

However, I do think that he can use his role as a bully pulpit to move the vote today. That is only enhanced as more people show up and do not counter his reveal. He becomes a "de facto trusted" villager, and if you do not know who to trust then why not follow the leader? Or, at the very least, engage the "known good" in discussion in the thread.

[path12]

I don't like this vote at all. The Duke isn't really one of those roles that people tend to fake-reveal as. The sentence for that is usually not a very good one. His getting that information out also should likely be viewed as trusted unless it is disputed by someone else. If that ends up being the case, the duke and fake duke can have a duke-off and settle that real quick.

Your vote here makes very little sense to me.. plus since you aren't one of the revealed roles, the worst mistake I make here is voting off an ordinary villager.

Vote Path

My only point is why come out as the duke and then risk getting killed without using your power? Then he gets killed tonight and the role doesn't help us in the least.

As to your point about someone else disputing the role, I don't agree with your premise. Let's say that for whatever reason Lathum is fake revealing -- the real duke doesn't have to say anything in thread, just duke the vote to him tonight and problem solved.

But for the record, it makes no sense for him to fake reveal as the duke and I do believe him. I'm just trying to get him to use the power now that he's put it out there.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, do you feel strongly enough about Path as a candidate that you would prefer a runaway vote on him or do you just want him as one of the top candidates and let the random number generator decide between a pair of candidates?

[path12]

this screams set up move to me.

I can easily see a scenerio where Path fake reveals as the Duke later in the game and points to this post.

UNVOTE HOOPSGUY
VOTE PATH

As I said, I believe you are the duke. I just think it's not a good move to say that and not use the power.

You won't get a fake reveal from me, I'm non-roled -- you know I wouldn't make a stand like this day 1 if I wasn't villager.

[Hannibal Lecter]

I don't like this vote at all. The Duke isn't really one of those roles that people tend to fake-reveal as. The sentence for that is usually not a very good one. His getting that information out also should likely be viewed as trusted unless it is disputed by someone else. If that ends up being the case, the duke and fake duke can have a duke-off and settle that real quick.

Your vote here makes very little sense to me.. plus since you aren't one of the revealed roles, the worst mistake I make here is voting off an ordinary villager.

Vote Path

Also most Dukes would like having votes on them, since that is the only way they can use their power, also they are the only one who KNOWs they are good, so they have better odds than anyone else of pickin off a wolf.

[path12]

exactly, plus what do I gain from using it today. I would much rather save the ability for when there is some actual info on the players.

Especialy in a game where a lynch isn't guarenteed to be the player with the most votes.

Right now there are 11 unknowns in this game to me so why duke someone when it really doesn't matter who gets killed?

Hell, I don't care if you duke it to me though it won't help anything. As I just mentioned last post, it seems pretty obvious to me that this is a villager play on my part.

But you put a 40% chance on yourself being killed tonight without using your power. I disagree with you and Alan that there is upside for the village in that.

If someone can convince me differently, I'm more than happy to move the vote.

[path12]

I dunno, this whole thing screams villager/villager to me.

Or villager/duke if you will. :)

[Hannibal Lecter]

Hell, I don't care if you duke it to me though it won't help anything. As I just mentioned last post, it seems pretty obvious to me that this is a villager play on my part.

But you put a 40% chance on yourself being killed tonight without using your power. I disagree with you and Alan that there is upside for the village in that.

If someone can convince me differently, I'm more than happy to move the vote.
Since there have been no other reveals (unless I missed one) I think its a safe bet that the Body guard will be guarding Lathum! so there is not a 40% chance he gets hit.

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, I'm going to go after the wolf from last game who has not given his thoughts on the vote this afternoon other than:

* ponder ponder ponder *

VOTE RENDER

[path12]

Since there have been no other reveals (unless I missed one) I think its a safe bet that the Body guard will be guarding Lathum! so there is not a 40% chance he gets hit.

That is the best point I've seen so far. Though IIRC the bodyguard success is on a percentage too isn't it?

[Alan T]

Lathum is 40% likely to be the night kill if the other roles are not revealed, unless the wolves feel like they have a good handle on him and are willing to risk him using his ability in place of the vote. This argues for him using his ability today. Whether or not he decides to be up-front with us about that in the thread is entirely at his discretion.

However, I do think that he can use his role as a bully pulpit to move the vote today. That is only enhanced as more people show up and do not counter his reveal. He becomes a "de facto trusted" villager, and if you do not know who to trust then why not follow the leader? Or, at the very least, engage the "known good" in discussion in the thread.


Lathum isn't the only person to have revealed they have a role so far today. We have two people revealing they have roles.

[Alan T]

My only point is why come out as the duke and then risk getting killed without using your power? Then he gets killed tonight and the role doesn't help us in the least.

As to your point about someone else disputing the role, I don't agree with your premise. Let's say that for whatever reason Lathum is fake revealing -- the real duke doesn't have to say anything in thread, just duke the vote to him tonight and problem solved.

But for the record, it makes no sense for him to fake reveal as the duke and I do believe him. I'm just trying to get him to use the power now that he's put it out there.

In every game that there is a duke role or a villager night kill role, they more often than not end up killing a fellow good guy anyways. The longer they go without using the power, the better chance at being correct with it. In some games, the only benefit of the duke power is being able to add a auto-trusted member.

Here Lathum can do that without having to worry about guessing incorrectly. Sure it is a gamble to wait later to use the power, but honestly in today's vote the math shows that a non-rolled villager has a better chance at guessing correctly on the lynch then a rolled villager (including the duke) does. Since I know 3 people right now who are good, vs the two he knows is good.

[Alan T]

Also most Dukes would like having votes on them, since that is the only way they can use their power, also they are the only one who KNOWs they are good, so they have better odds than anyone else of pickin off a wolf.

I don't understand your point here. I know occasionally a duke can only duke the vote if he is up for lynch himself.. but most of the time a duke can simply send in a request to duke player X. I could be wrong, but this game is also like that right? I don't see how having a vote on him changes that or not.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum isn't the only person to have revealed they have a role so far today. We have two people revealing they have roles.

Yep, and they are both likely 40% at this point in time unless the wolves know something that we don't (one is a bluff). Either way, unless there are three reveals I would expect that Lathum becomes a 40% target for them tonight.

[Alan T]

Since there have been no other reveals (unless I missed one) I think its a safe bet that the Body guard will be guarding Lathum! so there is not a 40% chance he gets hit.


I know I am playing catchup on posts Chief Rum style right now.. but as I mentioned earlier.. Lathum isn't the only one to have revealed today. I actually am hoping that the third person will also reveal before too late tonight (not revealing which role, but that they have a role) just in case one of the people are lying we would find out.

[hoopsguy]

Since I know 3 people right now who are good, vs the two he knows is good.

This is taking both reveals at face value - which I'm not 100% prepared to do quite yet. But I agree with your general point.

[Alan T]

This is taking both reveals at face value - which I'm not 100% prepared to do quite yet. But I agree with your general point.

You probably just crossposted with me, but I was also saying I'll have to be hesitant on the other reveal until the third person reveals myself:

I know I am playing catchup on posts Chief Rum style right now.. but as I mentioned earlier.. Lathum isn't the only one to have revealed today. I actually am hoping that the third person will also reveal before too late tonight (not revealing which role, but that they have a role) just in case one of the people are lying we would find out.


Since once three people with roles have revealed, if one of them is faking it, someone else will be sitting around thinking.. uhh wait I am a role too so one of them must be lying. Right now you might have two different people thinking that they are the third role and not wanting to reveal that though.

[Danny]

Back from work and mostly caught up. So, Lathum revealed as the Duke. Did the other two people reveal having a role?

[Hannibal Lecter]

Lathum isn't the only person to have revealed they have a role so far today. We have two people revealing they have roles.


well that is unfortunate, now I must reread.

Ta Ta for now!

[Danny]

I re-read and we have Lathum as the Duke and Jeheinz as having a role, but no third person yet.

Path's vote seems iffy on Lathum, but for a day one play does seem a little risky for a wolf. That said, I disagree with his comments about Lathum needing to use his Duke. I'd rather him use it with more to go on as right now, it's just throwing a dart blindfolded.

For now, I'm probably leaning towards voting elsewhere.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Barkeep is concerning me, he is usually a big poster, with lots of insight, and it seems he has only posted twice this whole thread... this is odd

vote barkeep

I need to vote for somewhere, and other than not Heinze and not lathum I have no ideas.

[path12]

Is there a count?

[Danny]

No, we have a cannibal, but no dracula

[Hannibal Lecter]

No, we have a cannibal, but no dracula'


very funny, I bet you laughed when kids fell off the jungle gym in school. Its ok I did too!

[Danny]

I work at a school, so I still do :)

[path12]

In every game that there is a duke role or a villager night kill role, they more often than not end up killing a fellow good guy anyways. The longer they go without using the power, the better chance at being correct with it. In some games, the only benefit of the duke power is being able to add a auto-trusted member.

Here Lathum can do that without having to worry about guessing incorrectly. Sure it is a gamble to wait later to use the power, but honestly in today's vote the math shows that a non-rolled villager has a better chance at guessing correctly on the lynch then a rolled villager (including the duke) does. Since I know 3 people right now who are good, vs the two he knows is good.

You could have a point and I may have over-reacted. I'm not totally convinced I understand all the ramifications of this ruleset.

Given the general response to my vote I'll likely move it since I don't really want Lathum to get lynched. Everyone has checked in, right?

[Hannibal Lecter]

I work at a school, so I still do :)

Oh, excellent! Child is very tender.

[Danny]

I'm pretty sure everyone has checked in

[RendeR]

Hell, I don't care if you duke it to me though it won't help anything. As I just mentioned last post, it seems pretty obvious to me that this is a villager play on my part.

But you put a 40% chance on yourself being killed tonight without using your power. I disagree with you and Alan that there is upside for the village in that.

If someone can convince me differently, I'm more than happy to move the vote.

You've hit a nail dead on, unless he intends to use his power tonight lathum just set himself up as an obvious target at the highest chance of being killed.

Since there have been no other reveals (unless I missed one) I think its a safe bet that the Body guard will be guarding Lathum! so there is not a 40% chance he gets hit.

Bodyguard is just another percentage so its no guarentee that its a saving shot to have the BG on lathum either.

Hmm, I'm going to go after the wolf from last game who has not given his thoughts on the vote this afternoon other than:

* ponder ponder ponder *

VOTE RENDER

I actually considered asking Pass to make me a wolf again in this game thinking that none of you would suspect me being a wolf twice in a row in idential games. Glad I had to get to work and couldn't message him =)

I've been busy today, been trying to read stuff but between students and friends and coworkers vanishing into the ether, well i've just been otherwise occupied.


As for my vote, I see and understand path12's ealier position, lathums reveal was just plain dumb IF he doesn't use his power tonight because its putting himself on the block to be killed. Who would do something that dumb? A wolf because they know that they're safe anyway.

I don't actually tihnk lathum is a wolf atm, however I'm still rather bafffled at the reveal. lathum's not normally a dumbass =) So whats his reasoning? I'm expecting a last second Duking to someone else.

VOTE ALAN T

Not any real evidence to forge that vote on, its more of a feeling I get reading his posts. They're not as wel thought out as he normally posts, they're not as longwinded and they're a bit more argumentative than what he normally posts.

So call it a Day-I-You-make-my-skin-crawl vote.

[Alan T]

You've hit a nail dead on, unless he intends to use his power tonight lathum just set himself up as an obvious target at the highest chance of being killed.



Bodyguard is just another percentage so its no guarentee that its a saving shot to have the BG on lathum either.



I actually considered asking Pass to make me a wolf again in this game thinking that none of you would suspect me being a wolf twice in a row in idential games. Glad I had to get to work and couldn't message him =)

I've been busy today, been trying to read stuff but between students and friends and coworkers vanishing into the ether, well i've just been otherwise occupied.


As for my vote, I see and understand path12's ealier position, lathums reveal was just plain dumb IF he doesn't use his power tonight because its putting himself on the block to be killed. Who would do something that dumb? A wolf because they know that they're safe anyway.

I don't actually tihnk lathum is a wolf atm, however I'm still rather bafffled at the reveal. lathum's not normally a dumbass =) So whats his reasoning? I'm expecting a last second Duking to someone else.

VOTE ALAN T

Not any real evidence to forge that vote on, its more of a feeling I get reading his posts. They're not as wel thought out as he normally posts, they're not as longwinded and they're a bit more argumentative than what he normally posts.

So call it a Day-I-You-make-my-skin-crawl vote.


Either you just skimmed the thread or you really have a different agenda here. I am guessing I probably have near the most posts in the thread, have posted pretty much all kinds of reasons behind my posts and have gone to great detail on why I felt the point Path made was not only wrong, but very un-villager in nature. That then means my posts were not well thought out? I actually think you make me feel I am more right about Path, and if/when he comes up as a wolf, you are next.

[path12]

UNVOTE LATHUM
VOTE THE JACKAL

Random because I haven't seen much from him.

[path12]

Vote count:

path 2 -- Alan T, Lathum
Jackal 2 -- heinz, path
Chief Rum 1 -- Packer
Packer 1 -- Chief Rum
RendeR 1 -- hoopsguy
Barkeep 1 -- Hannibal
Alan T 1 -- RendeR

Not voted: Jackal/Barkeep/Danny

[Danny]

I don't care to vote for someone like BK or CR who won't be here to defend themselves. I will likely vote Path, Render, PackerFanatic or Jackal

[Lathum]

My only point is why come out as the duke and then risk getting killed without using your power? Then he gets killed tonight and the role doesn't help us in the least

using my role today doesn't help us either considering the lack of information


But for the record, it makes no sense for him to fake reveal as the duke and I do believe him. I'm just trying to get him to use the power now that he's put it out there.
[/QUOTE]

You are trying to get me to use my power by putting a vote on me, potentialy getting me killed? That isn't the action of a villager, that is the action of a wolf who knows he should kill me tonight, but hopes he can get me lynched so he can go after another target.

[Lathum]

I'm duking to Path, just can't get past his play today.

[Danny]

Are you sure? If so, I will throw my vote over to him in trying to save your duke ability as I'm not opposed to voting for him

[Lathum]

I am sure, throw your vote there if you like to increase the likliehood of a lynch, but his play is to suspect.

[Danny]

Vote Path

I'm not convinced he's a wolf, but is one of my possibilities and I would prefer to save the duke ability if we can get as equal of a chance of killing Path as the duke through vote. Plus with the Duke there is a 10% chance Lathum is killed

[Lathum]

and FWIW me revealing as the Duke isn't a dumbass move at all, despite what Render says.

It gives us a trusted role that the wolves don't have to be to concerned with and the BG can still protect me.

Even if the BG chooses to NOT protect me there is the liklihood he will, which casts serious doubt in the wolves minds.

Render may not agree with the move, but to say it is a dumbass move is a bit strong.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, would you like to see consolidation of the vote around Path or does it just not matter to you?

If it doesn't matter, I'll just leave my vote where it was as a measure of my D1 suspicion. If it does, I'm willing to move it to help create some more consolidation at the top, leaving you the option to hold onto the Duke.

[Alan T]

and FWIW me revealing as the Duke isn't a dumbass move at all, despite what Render says.

It gives us a trusted role that the wolves don't have to be to concerned with and the BG can still protect me.

Even if the BG chooses to NOT protect me there is the liklihood he will, which casts serious doubt in the wolves minds.

Render may not agree with the move, but to say it is a dumbass move is a bit strong.

I honestly don't know what is up with Render's post.

He was insulting
He was incorrect
He was not very observant with his comments about my play either.

It is like he was reading last game or something instead of this one. Maybe that is why I was quiet.. I didn't play in that game.

[Danny]

I'm not Lathum, but would rather see votes for Path myself. We need at least 5 votes for him to make it a stronger play than duking it to him.

[Lathum]

Lathum, would you like to see consolidation of the vote around Path or does it just not matter to you?

If it doesn't matter, I'll just leave my vote where it was as a measure of my D1 suspicion. If it does, I'm willing to move it to help create some more consolidation at the top, leaving you the option to hold onto the Duke.

I would prefer consolodation since each vote will increase the chances

[hoopsguy]

UNVOTE RENDER
VOTE PATH

[hoopsguy]

FWIW, I'll be kinda surprised if this turns out to be a better vote than Render.

Also, chances are pretty good that I'm out from now until deadline.

[The Jackal]

My bad guys, I got distracted and just got back to the thread.

[path12]

You are trying to get me to use my power by putting a vote on me, potentialy getting me killed? That isn't the action of a villager, that is the action of a wolf who knows he should kill me tonight, but hopes he can get me lynched so he can go after another target.

Wrong, but that's cool. Like I said I've got no role so I'm not a valuable piece. I will say you obviously haven't read everything I've written today, I specifically said that I believe your reveal and took my vote off so you didn't have a chance of getting killed.

I still believe my point is valid, but based on the responses was willing to say I missed how the rules make you safer that I originally thought.

It's apparent that you were willing to take the chance that the bodyguard will get a good block on you tonight if the wolves go in your direction. Of course if you duke me tonight then you'll be lower on their list anyway.

I'm also realizing that I'm not enjoying WW very much right now, and that's a bigger concern to me than whether or not I get duked.

[The Jackal]

vote path

RendeR's giving off funny vibes but this is mostly self preservation, increase my percentages a little.

[Danny]

path 4 -- Alan T, Lathum, Hoopsguy, Danny
Jackal 2 -- heinz, path
Chief Rum 1 -- Packer
Packer 1 -- Chief Rum
Barkeep 1 -- Hannibal
Alan T 1 -- RendeR

[The Jackal]

And now I'm heading out, probably back real late. If I'm still around tmw I'll offer some further thoughts.

[Alan T]

I'm also realizing that I'm not enjoying WW very much right now, and that's a bigger concern to me than whether or not I get duked.


Sorry path that you are feeling this way. I actually went through something like that myself recently (started this past summer), so I won't say I know how you feel but I can relate. I hope I am not partially to blame for this. If you end up being good, I apologize, but out of all of the day 1 discussion I just felt your reasoning seemed the least logical (at least until Render posted, but at that point was a bit late to move to him).

Anyways, irregardless if I am right or wrong about you, sorry that you are feeling this way.. I think you and I aren't alone lately and I wonder why we all feel that way and if anything can be improved to change it.

[Hannibal Lecter]

I see my fine colleague, Dr. Caglia, has decided to enhance the tension.....

[Passacaglia]

path 4 -- Alan T, Lathum, Hoopsguy, Danny
Jackal 2 -- heinz, path
Chief Rum 1 -- Packer
Packer 1 -- Chief Rum
Barkeep 1 -- Hannibal
Alan T 1 -- RendeR



Trusting Danny's count. The villagers talk it over and decide that Barkeep49 will be the one to die tonight. Barkeep49 was a villager!

[hoopsguy]

I guess we can assume that Lathum bluffed it?

Hmm, 10% hit?

Path, guess you get to continue not enjoying yourself for another day unless the wolves get creative with their night kill. On a more serious note, I would be interested in chatting about it outside of this thread at some point if you want to shoot the breeze (publicly or privately) on the topic.

[Lathum]

I feel the same way Path does FWIW.

[Lathum]

dola- no Bluff, BK got very unlucky

[Passacaglia]

On a more serious note, I would be interested in chatting about it outside of this thread at some point if you want to shoot the breeze (publicly or privately) on the topic.

Same here. I'm just coming off a small WW break, so that kind of conversation would be interesting.

[Danny]

I posted as jackal was voting, so hopefully his vote got counted in there as well. Bad break on BK, and I think that was a very poor vote overall.

That said, I feel like Path is likely a villager with his reaction, so I'm not too upset he wasn't lynched

[Passacaglia]

I posted as jackal was voting, so hopefully his vote got counted in there as well. Bad break on BK, and I think that was a very poor vote overall.

That said, I feel like Path is likely a villager with his reaction, so I'm not too upset he wasn't lynched

Thanks -- luckily it wouldn't have changed the result.

[hoopsguy]

Danny, what parts of the vote did you feel were particularly poor? Is the complaint that it was poorly coordinated, wrong guy, bad reasoning posted, etc?

[Lathum]

That said, I feel like Path is likely a villager with his reaction, so I'm not too upset he wasn't lynched

Ordinarily I would say this is a valid point, but in a game where there is a chance you won't be lynched due to the random factor you can't let down your guard at all

[Danny]

A couple. First, I do think it was poorly coordinate with the rest of us. Second, BK wasn't going to be around today and the reason that was given for voting him was him being quiet. Also, considering there is one role which is left unaccounted for, I felt voting for someone who wasn't around much and may not have realized people were revealing was not a great idea on day one.

[Danny]

Ordinarily I would say this is a valid point, but in a game where there is a chance you won't be lynched due to the random factor you can't let down your guard at all

That's true, but I got a big villager vibe from him. Could be a ploy, but hopefully others suspects reveal themselves tomorrow.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Dr. Caglia certainly loves the drama building delays!

[Hannibal Lecter]

I also feel very bad about falling asleep and not switching my vote last night. very unfortunate for Mr. Keep.

[Passacaglia]

You wake up in the morning, and realize that one of you is missing -- jeheinz72 is nowhere to be seen. He was the bodyguard!

[Hannibal Lecter]

Well..... At least he wasnt the seer. This is not a fortuitous beginning to this exercise for us! I think at this point there is no advantage to us to have the seer reveal, with no body guard, it would be a miracle if they survived one night.

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, I would love to see a re-jump of the numbers from the stats crunchers before jumping on that, although I would say it seems unlikely to be a good idea to continue with hoops' original plan. One roled villager is out, and two others have been eliminated by death from being potential wolves. So the wolves have an even smaller window now. But I wait to hear from others before I go one way or the other on that.

I am going off to work, but no second job for me today, so I will be around before deadline.

[jeheinz72]

I think I'm just not destined to last very long in this game.

Good luck village!

[Danny]

Not a good start. I don't have much time to be online today, so I'm going to throw a vote out early.

I think both Path and Render are simply misplaced villagers. I really don't think a wolf comes out that strong on day one and I've played with Render enough that he tends to upset people like that when he is a villager. Last game as a wolf, he played Mr. Nice.

Vote The Jackal

I'm not sold on anyone, but was leaning towards voting him, or PF

[hoopsguy]

Technically, RendeR played last game as a mime more than "playing nice". I still think he is worthy of discussion.

Ten person game with two roled players, one of who has already exercised his option. No ability to protect the seer, and the seer knows who the other guy is. Nope, I do not all that much reward with him coming forward today without a wolf.

[Danny]

I'm off to work, I will hopefully have a 60-90 minute window around 3pm pacific time to come participate.

[hoopsguy]

Oops - writing is hard. My last post should have said, "Nope, I do not see all that much reward for him coming forwards today without a wolf". Hate when I re-type something a couple of different ways and end up with something that sounds vaguely "English-as-a-second-language"-esque.

Oh, and please do not take the bold here on "see" to suggest that I'm the seer. This is not a hint at that role in any way, shape, or form.

[hoopsguy]

Weak trust list:
1. Me (duh)
2. Lathum (duke)
3. Path - light trust

People I would like the seer to scan:
1. Chief Rum (schedule driven)
2. Danny (want to know if I can trust his input)
3. Alan T (same as Danny, but I think he'll give me more posts to read so I'm not as worried about it)

People I'm cool with voting out today
1. RendeR - my original vote from yesterday
2a. PackerFanatic
2b. TheJackal - whichever one of these guys posts less has a good shot of getting my vote
4. Hannibal Lecter - distant 4th behind the other three

[path12]

Hi again.

I want to be clear on one thing -- my reaction last night was not a ploy or anything like that, that's not how I play. I appreciate the support and think that since it just doesn't seem to be me should be something we talk about, but that's for another thread/PM's. Back to the game.

Bummer roll for Barkeep there, though I am wondering why Lathum changed his mind or bluffed about using the duke -- I assume it was not wanting to waste it since I ended up with the biggest kill % in the vote.

Need to finish catching up now. Back later.

[Lathum]

Without much to go on I think the way to go today is either Hannibal Lechter or Path.

Hannibal is the only person we know who voted on a known villager, was it to protect Path?

I think thats where if nothing else we get the most info from

[Alan T]

I am not as easy forgiving of Render. I wonder if part of his out of no where attack yesterday that had all kinds of logic holes in it was a desire to try to shake things up some from the previous game when he was a wolf. The biggest reason to do so would be because of a role this game. I'll try to restrain myself a bit though and not just vote for him today because of his insults.

I still think Path's play yesterday was the most anti-villager play and that says alot this early in the game to me. I will assume however that with such a play, he had to be a likely seer target and I am assuming if he was a wolf, the seer would feel it worthwhile enough to out himself to reveal path. So I'll back off on that and assume the seer made the best choice to scan him last night and without any further pushing of a Path vote that means to me he is possibly good and just misguided.

That leaves Hannibal Lecter.. for some reason, in my memory he seemed to keep almost encouraging the bodyguard to protect Lathum yesterday as if Jeheinz had never revealed. When it was pointed out several times, he simply said he didn't notice and disappeared.

Out of the various posts on day 1, the only two clear agendas I could find was Lathum's (who we know to be a good guy agenda because of his role), and Hannibal Lecter (which I don't know what his agenda was, but it did not come across as good to me.) I think I am going back through Dr. Lecter's posts to see if anything jumps out at me or makes me feel better about him. Right now, that is where I am leaning with my vote today.

[Alan T]

though I am wondering why Lathum changed his mind or bluffed about using the duke -- I assume it was not wanting to waste it since I ended up with the biggest kill % in the vote.



I noticed someone else said this last night at some point when I was catching up on my thread just now. The answer to this is pretty clear. With the number of votes on you yesterday, there was a better chance of you getting lynched without him duking you then if he had used his duke. You had I think 5 votes on you which would have been 5/12 or roughly 42% I believe. His duking ability at most can only target you with 40% chance of death.

It makes absolutely no use for him to duke you if he wanted you dead.. Just after I made a comment that I would try to feel better about you and assume the seer scanned you, you start making comments as if trying to make people feel ill towards Lathum again, just like day 1... erf

[path12]

It makes absolutely no use for him to duke you if he wanted you dead.. Just after I made a comment that I would try to feel better about you and assume the seer scanned you, you start making comments as if trying to make people feel ill towards Lathum again, just like day 1... erf

You quoted the part where I say I assume it's because I had the biggest % of dying from the lynch and then still say I'm trying to point the finger at Lathum again? :confused: Really?

[Alan T]

You quoted the part where I say I assume it's because I had the biggest % of dying from the lynch and then still say I'm trying to point the finger at Lathum again? :confused: Really?

Then why wonder why Lathum "bluffed"? Your word choice there seemed to be pretty poor if it was not intentional. It is just as obvious today why Lathum played the way he did as it was yesterday. I don't know if you either have some axe to grind with him or have some other motive. I'm standing pat though with my initial assumption that the #1 person for the seer to have scanned last night was you.. and you must just be really misguided right now being this antagonistic to the duke.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, FWIW the Seer only has a 40% chance of scanning a given player. So I do not think it is a given that any particular player was scanned as a reason for not voting them today. If you do want to factor this into play, it should only be a fractional measure of trust compared to other rulesets.

I still have Path on a little higher trust line today than most of the others, without factoring the idea of him being scanned into the mix.

[Lathum]

Alan- With the BG gone I'm not so sure the seer would come out if they found a wolf

[path12]

Then why wonder why Lathum "bluffed"? Your word choice there seemed to be pretty poor if it was not intentional. It is just as obvious today why Lathum played the way he did as it was yesterday. I don't know if you either have some axe to grind with him or have some other motive. I'm standing pat though with my initial assumption that the #1 person for the seer to have scanned last night was you.. and you must just be really misguided right now being this antagonistic to the duke.

I don't see where I'm being antagonistic to the duke. It seems more to me that you're trying to make an association where there is none.

I asked myself a question as I read the results and then answered my own question by mentioning the vote percentage on me.

The fact is, Lathum did bluff because he said he was duking me and then did not. It's not pointing a finger at him to say that -- it is stating a fact. I've said more than once that I believe he is the duke. How is that antagonistic? I'm not voting him today -- is that a sign I'm out to get him also?

You're saying I'm "misguided" and suggesting I have an axe to grind with Lathum. You could be absolutely right that I'm misguided, I make mistakes in WW all the time as we all do. You couldn't be more wrong to suggest I have any other issue with Lathum. My only issue here is trying to find wolves, and just because I questioned Lathum yesterday does not mean I'm questioning him today.

As far as I'm concerned, you're trying to fan some flames where none exist. I don't know your reasons for that, but it is not making me feel any better about you and your motives.

[Alan T]

Alan, FWIW the Seer only has a 40% chance of scanning a given player. So I do not think it is a given that any particular player was scanned as a reason for not voting them today. If you do want to factor this into play, it should only be a fractional measure of trust compared to other rulesets.

I still have Path on a little higher trust line today than most of the others, without factoring the idea of him being scanned into the mix.

Alan- With the BG gone I'm not so sure the seer would come out if they found a wolf


Fair enough. I'm re-talking myself into voting for Path again today. I think we learn the most votewise about other people with his lynch anyways. If not him, I'm still considering Hannibal Lecter. I am pretty sure I will vote for one of those two today.

[Alan T]

I don't see where I'm being antagonistic to the duke. It seems more to me that you're trying to make an association where there is none.

I asked myself a question as I read the results and then answered my own question by mentioning the vote percentage on me.

The fact is, Lathum did bluff because he said he was duking me and then did not. It's not pointing a finger at him to say that -- it is stating a fact. I've said more than once that I believe he is the duke. How is that antagonistic? I'm not voting him today -- is that a sign I'm out to get him also?

You're saying I'm "misguided" and suggesting I have an axe to grind with Lathum. You could be absolutely right that I'm misguided, I make mistakes in WW all the time as we all do. You couldn't be more wrong to suggest I have any other issue with Lathum. My only issue here is trying to find wolves, and just because I questioned Lathum yesterday does not mean I'm questioning him today.

As far as I'm concerned, you're trying to fan some flames where none exist. I don't know your reasons for that, but it is not making me feel any better about you and your motives.


You only changed your tune yesterday when I called you out for it. You seemed to be passive-aggressively trying the same thing today is all, so I called you on it again. Right now I am not that worried about how you feel about me as most of your moves thus far in my mind have been fairly anti-villager.

[Lathum]

I

The fact is, Lathum did bluff because he said he was duking me and then did not. It's not pointing a finger at him to say that -- it is stating a fact. I've said more than once that I believe he is the duke. How is that antagonistic? I'm not voting him today -- is that a sign I'm out to get him also?


Not true, even with me duking you it is not a guarentee of a lynch. BK just got very unlucky with random.org.

[RendeR]

VOTE ALAN T

My reasons are pretty much the same, he's rehashing arguements that sound great but don't hold a lot of substance. If you thought I was insulting yesterday I'll apologize, it was all tongue in cheek (hence the use of a smiley as I posted things).

Alan, every time I read your posts instead of getting "he's really digging through things and the logic makes real sense" I actually get "This is a total BS job and he's double talking himself around in circles"

Maybe I'm wrong, maybe its my headache giving me a false read on you, I duno, all I do know is you're making me so uncomfortable that I want to find out where you stand and the easiest way to do so is lynch you.

AS for me being a wolf, I wish I was, I think it would have rocked to be a wolf twice in a row in the exact same game, especially after surviving the last one. but it didn't happen and I think its obvious why, after winning the last game I'm a pretty obvious target this time. Add to that the total random.org-ness of the game and it would be a long shot for me to get selected twice.

[PackerFanatic]

So much randomness, how can we get anything done...

[Alan T]

VOTE ALAN T

My reasons are pretty much the same, he's rehashing arguements that sound great but don't hold a lot of substance. If you thought I was insulting yesterday I'll apologize, it was all tongue in cheek (hence the use of a smiley as I posted things).

Alan, every time I read your posts instead of getting "he's really digging through things and the logic makes real sense" I actually get "This is a total BS job and he's double talking himself around in circles"

Maybe I'm wrong, maybe its my headache giving me a false read on you, I duno, all I do know is you're making me so uncomfortable that I want to find out where you stand and the easiest way to do so is lynch you.

AS for me being a wolf, I wish I was, I think it would have rocked to be a wolf twice in a row in the exact same game, especially after surviving the last one. but it didn't happen and I think its obvious why, after winning the last game I'm a pretty obvious target this time. Add to that the total random.org-ness of the game and it would be a long shot for me to get selected twice.


Please explain to me how any of this is BS or talking in circles?

- A wolf is not going to fake reveal right at the start as the duke
- I feel the Duke actually makes a smarter choice not duking on day 1 and instead waiting to be more sure of their information, since usually a day 1 duking more often then not ends up killing a good guy, and leaves us with no voting information for day 2.
- Path's vote on Lathum after Lathum had claimed to be the duke was just really out of place and unnecessary, and most of his reasons for it were not very accurate based on what I said above in my previous two points.
- The Duke does not have to have a vote on him in order for him to be able to use his ability (and that is not even a very common rule in any other WW game)
- Lathum was not the only person to reveal yesterday and the bodyguard shouldn't only focus on protecting him such as Hannibal Lecter had suggested
- The Duke in this game only has a 40% chance of killing his intended target, so once the person he wanted to die ended up with greater than 40% of the vote (such as Path yesterday), it makes absolutely no sense for him to use his role there as it actually decreases the chance of the lynch he wants to occur.


Please tell me which of those are BS, and I will happily discuss it with you. Otherwise I'm going to assume you are the one spouting off BS and words that just sound good.

[Alan T]

Please explain to me how any of this is BS or talking in circles?

- A wolf is not going to fake reveal right at the start as the duke
- I feel the Duke actually makes a smarter choice not duking on day 1 and instead waiting to be more sure of their information, since usually a day 1 duking more often then not ends up killing a good guy, and leaves us with no voting information for day 2.
- Path's vote on Lathum after Lathum had claimed to be the duke was just really out of place and unnecessary, and most of his reasons for it were not very accurate based on what I said above in my previous two points.
- The Duke does not have to have a vote on him in order for him to be able to use his ability (and that is not even a very common rule in any other WW game)
- Lathum was not the only person to reveal yesterday and the bodyguard shouldn't only focus on protecting him such as Hannibal Lecter had suggested
- The Duke in this game only has a 40% chance of killing his intended target, so once the person he wanted to die ended up with greater than 40% of the vote (such as Path yesterday), it makes absolutely no sense for him to use his role there as it actually decreases the chance of the lynch he wants to occur.


Please tell me which of those are BS, and I will happily discuss it with you. Otherwise I'm going to assume you are the one spouting off BS and words that just sound good.


Sorry, I forgot, I also had the points yesterday which gave the percentages of successfully getting a wolf on day 1 based on full reveal or no full reveal as well as 3 wolves vs 4 wolves for people to be able to use and make their decision whether or not to do the full reveal. I'm pretty sure none of that was BS.. but if it was, Render feel free to show the math where I was wrong on any of it.

[Hannibal Lecter]

I am very very confused!

[path12]

Not true, even with me duking you it is not a guarentee of a lynch. BK just got very unlucky with random.org.

See, I keep forgetting that nobody gets a 100% chance of doing anything. I had assumed you changed your mind on the duking.

So what must have happened is that you failed your duke roll and then Barkeep got hit with the 10% lynch chance.

So if you tried to use it yesterday and failed, do you still have the ability to try it again?

[path12]

You only changed your tune yesterday when I called you out for it. You seemed to be passive-aggressively trying the same thing today is all, so I called you on it again. Right now I am not that worried about how you feel about me as most of your moves thus far in my mind have been fairly anti-villager.

Well, obviously you've made up your mind about me and you have every right to do that. I continue to think that you're trying to muddy the waters for some particular purpose and since I don't know what that purpose might be you'll get my vote.

VOTE ALAN T

[Alan T]

Well, obviously you've made up your mind about me and you have every right to do that. I continue to think that you're trying to muddy the waters for some particular purpose and since I don't know what that purpose might be you'll get my vote.

VOTE ALAN T


Actually, you are the one trying to muddy the waters right now. If anyone is being absolutely clear with what he has said and is saying this game it is me. I am not too terribly suprised to see you and Render ganging up on me though. I expect Hannibal Lecter to follow next as well.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Actually, you are the one trying to muddy the waters right now. If anyone is being absolutely clear with what he has said and is saying this game it is me. I am not too terribly suprised to see you and Render ganging up on me though. I expect Hannibal Lecter to follow next as well.

why is that?

[Lathum]

So if you tried to use it yesterday and failed, do you still have the ability to try it again?

why would I answer that and give the wolves more info?


VOTE PATH

[Alan T]

why is that?

Because before I got back on the Path train of thought today, I had actually decided to go a different direction today earlier and was looking at your posts. During the part where I felt Path was using poor logic, I notice that you just flat out fed one piece of misinformation after another.

Also most Dukes would like having votes on them, since that is the only way they can use their power, also they are the only one who KNOWs they are good, so they have better odds than anyone else of pickin off a wolf.

Since there have been no other reveals (unless I missed one) I think its a safe bet that the Body guard will be guarding Lathum! so there is not a 40% chance he gets hit.

[The Jackal]

Two people that are giving me wolf vibes (only from the tone of their posts) are Danny (and not just because he voted for me) and Hannibal. I'll likely be putting my vote on one of them, as I can't really sort out the mess that's going on between you others right now.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Because before I got back on the Path train of thought today, I had actually decided to go a different direction today earlier and was looking at your posts. During the part where I felt Path was using poor logic, I notice that you just flat out fed one piece of misinformation after another.
I see no misinformation there, I recall (although I cant think of which game) someone basically saying vote for me, because he was the Duke, and could control the lynch.

and I said unless I missed one....... which I didn't! Heinze said he had a role and the wolves were celarly payign better attention than me. But he never revealed.

This is so weak, your trying to pile on me based on other peoples bad feelings.

You have accused me of giving missinformation when everything I said is 100% true. What doesnt make sense is why would you be grasping at straws at this point? It is illogical!

[Alan T]

I see no misinformation there, I recall (although I cant think of which game) someone basically saying vote for me, because he was the Duke, and could control the lynch.

and I said unless I missed one....... which I didn't! Heinze said he had a role and the wolves were celarly payign better attention than me. But he never revealed.

This is so weak, your trying to pile on me based on other peoples bad feelings.

You have accused me of giving missinformation when everything I said is 100% true. What doesnt make sense is why would you be grasping at straws at this point? It is illogical!


Lets actually review these for truth then...


Also most Dukes would like having votes on them, since that is the only way they can use their power, also they are the only one who KNOWs they are good, so they have better odds than anyone else of pickin off a wolf.

FALSE - Dukes do not have to have votes on them for their vote to count, either in this game or in almost any other game. This seems like an attempt to "support" Path's vote yesterday on Lathum.

Since there have been no other reveals (unless I missed one) I think its a safe bet that the Body guard will be guarding Lathum! so there is not a 40% chance he gets hit.

FALSE - Jeheinz had revealed earlier in the day that he had a role. Since there are only three good guy roles listed, it would be assumed to be bodyguard or seer.


everything I said is 100% true.

FALSE - obviously if the others are not true, then this can't be 100% true either :)

[Hannibal Lecter]

I can see no reason you make this play unless you are a wolf, it just makes no sense!

Vote Alan T

[Alan T]

Actually, you are the one trying to muddy the waters right now. If anyone is being absolutely clear with what he has said and is saying this game it is me. I am not too terribly suprised to see you and Render ganging up on me though. I expect Hannibal Lecter to follow next as well.

Well not that it wasn't really unexpected or anything. :)

I can see no reason you make this play unless you are a wolf, it just makes no sense!

Vote Alan T

[hoopsguy]

Votes, as of Post #182:

Alan T - RendeR (167), Path (173), Hannibal (181)
TheJackal - Danny (150)
Path - Lathum (176)


I'm not at all excited about the idea of an Alan T runaway here, so if there is nothing else to go on I'm going to narrow the gap.

[path12]

why would I answer that and give the wolves more info?


VOTE PATH

LOL. Now you're just being silly. You're acting like I outed you or something. Until you successfully duke you're on the wolves short list anyway no matter whether you've still got your power or not.

But whatever, I expect Alan will join you with that vote eventually, and I still don't really care much.

[Alan T]

I'm not at all excited about the idea of an Alan T runaway here, so if there is nothing else to go on I'm going to narrow the gap.

I'm not overly worried about it. The three of them appear to be stacking the odds to prevent the possibility of a wolf being lynched. Since my role is only that of a villager and I'm going to be traveling the rest of the week.. I don't mind them using me as bait since I wouldn't be around much after today anyhows.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I would be careful about the "got 'em all" theories. I think it is a lot more likely that there is no more than one wolf on you and that the wolves are spreading their votes out to avoid linkage.

I'm not sure how much sense that really makes in a small game - we've only got ten players - but by this point (big picture werewolf, not just this game) wolves almost reflexively want to avoid voting together if one of their own is not severely threatened.

[hoopsguy]

LOL. Now you're just being silly. You're acting like I outed you or something. Until you successfully duke you're on the wolves short list anyway no matter whether you've still got your power or not.



Mostly agree with this. I think the wolves would worry more about the "assumed villager" than the Duke power. If we are not going to lynch you then they have to get rid of you eventually, unless you end up doing their work for them (example - me, last game beginning with D2).

[Alan T]

Alan, I would be careful about the "got 'em all" theories. I think it is a lot more likely that there is no more than one wolf on you and that the wolves are spreading their votes out to avoid linkage.

I'm not sure how much sense that really makes in a small game - we've only got ten players - but by this point (big picture werewolf, not just this game) wolves almost reflexively want to avoid voting together if one of their own is not severely threatened.


I think what you say is often true. I just am having a hard time in my head understanding their motivation and moves so far this game. I think I have given the opportunity to jump on me together by attacking their attempts to passive-aggressively affect a few things. Often times when that happens and the person is a villager, they will just end up coming out and saying they made a mistake and want to drop it. Instead these three are attacking me for my pointing out that they are incorrect or wrong. Just a bit off to me.. who knows maybe I am wrong though.

[The Jackal]

vote danny

I know he's got a limited time frame in which to access the game, but it still came off as one of those early spread votes to stray from what's going on with Alan.

[RendeR]

Lets actually review these for truth then...




FALSE - Dukes do not have to have votes on them for their vote to count, either in this game or in almost any other game. This seems like an attempt to "support" Path's vote yesterday on Lathum.



FALSE - Jeheinz had revealed earlier in the day that he had a role. Since there are only three good guy roles listed, it would be assumed to be bodyguard or seer.



FALSE - obviously if the others are not true, then this can't be 100% true either :)


Ok I know you're not this bone headed. Can you read his statements? He already said he was going of sometihng from another game, in other games there HAS been a rule regarding the duke having a vote on him to use his power and aonther in which he had to have the MOST votes to do so. His statement is NOT false. You're wrong and I know your not so naive as to not know of those other possibilities.

Your second point is also a reading isue, he even POSTED (unless I missed someone) in his ORIGINAL post. You're accusing him of lying when in fact his own statement that YOU quoted shows him allowing for something he may have missed.

He was 100% correct on what he said, based on what he knows he was right on, but you twisted his posts around and blatantly ignored his own admission that he may have missed something. Why, if you are not furry, are you acting this way? This is what I've been on about all along, you've been badgering people and mis-representing what was posted.

my vote stands and this post of yours makes me far more comfortable about it.

[Alan T]

Ok I know you're not this bone headed. Can you read his statements? He already said he was going of sometihng from another game, in other games there HAS been a rule regarding the duke having a vote on him to use his power and aonther in which he had to have the MOST votes to do so. His statement is NOT false. You're wrong and I know your not so naive as to not know of those other possibilities.

You know, I have been very careful to not say that this has ever been a rule in any WW game.. but I am pretty sure it is almost never a rule. I have actually sat and tried to think of one game where this actually was a rule that the duke had to have at least 1 vote on him to use his ability. It won't help me feel any better about you, but just for my own curiosity.. can you even name one game that this was the case? I mean, the only time I have ever seen a rule even close to this was in a few games where the duke could only use his ability to change the lynch if he was the lynch candidate. Since that is not what Lathum said here, and Lathum's play here suggests it not be the case that obviously is not this game's rule. It also isn't what Hannibal Lecter said either. So just for fun, show me even one game where the duke has to have a vote before he can use his ability.


Your second point is also a reading isue, he even POSTED (unless I missed someone) in his ORIGINAL post. You're accusing him of lying when in fact his own statement that YOU quoted shows him allowing for something he may have missed.


It is easy for you to just jump in on the last post of a conversation rather than actually look at the context of how it came about. My very first comment on the subject was that I didn't like how Hannibal Lecter seemed to be attempting to underhandedly steer the bodyguard to a certain action by the tone of his post. Only after that, did his reactions and his absolute certainty in his posts lead me to believe that it wasn't a mistake on his part, and that his everything he said is 100% true is obviously debunked.



He was 100% correct on what he said, based on what he knows he was right on, but you twisted his posts around and blatantly ignored his own admission that he may have missed something. Why, if you are not furry, are you acting this way? This is what I've been on about all along, you've been badgering people and mis-representing what was posted.

my vote stands and this post of yours makes me far more comfortable about it.

Just like he was not 100% correct, you obviously aren't either. Who is the one now trying to twist posts when you don't even pay attention to the context?

I also note for the record that you chose not to take me up on the challenge I left for you earlier. You convienantly chose not to respond to that because you were very very wrong there too.

Would you like a shovel to dig your hole any deeper?

[RendeR]

You know, I have been very careful to not say that this has ever been a rule in any WW game.. but I am pretty sure it is almost never a rule. I have actually sat and tried to think of one game where this actually was a rule that the duke had to have at least 1 vote on him to use his ability. It won't help me feel any better about you, but just for my own curiosity.. can you even name one game that this was the case? I mean, the only time I have ever seen a rule even close to this was in a few games where the duke could only use his ability to change the lynch if he was the lynch candidate. Since that is not what Lathum said here, and Lathum's play here suggests it not be the case that obviously is not this game's rule. It also isn't what Hannibal Lecter said either. So just for fun, show me even one game where the duke has to have a vote before he can use his ability.



It is easy for you to just jump in on the last post of a conversation rather than actually look at the context of how it came about. My very first comment on the subject was that I didn't like how Hannibal Lecter seemed to be attempting to underhandedly steer the bodyguard to a certain action by the tone of his post. Only after that, did his reactions and his absolute certainty in his posts lead me to believe that it wasn't a mistake on his part, and that his everything he said is 100% true is obviously debunked.




Just like he was not 100% correct, you obviously aren't either. Who is the one now trying to twist posts when you don't even pay attention to the context?

I also note for the record that you chose not to take me up on the challenge I left for you earlier. You convienantly chose not to respond to that because you were very very wrong there too.

Would you like a shovel to dig your hole any deeper?


Keep talking us in circles Alan. I'm at work and busy but I'll see what I can find for you.

You didn't challenge me to anytihng ealrier, I said you did something and you basically said "I dod not!" and tried to for ce me to prove something. I'm not wasting my time playing playground games with you here. normally you're very easy to follow and dead on with your dialogs, this game you haven't been, you've been intentionally confusing and it would appear, intentionally misleading as to what other people are saying.

Just my opinion of course.

[Alan T]

Keep talking us in circles Alan. I'm at work and busy but I'll see what I can find for you.

You didn't challenge me to anytihng ealrier, I said you did something and you basically said "I dod not!" and tried to for ce me to prove something. I'm not wasting my time playing playground games with you here. normally you're very easy to follow and dead on with your dialogs, this game you haven't been, you've been intentionally confusing and it would appear, intentionally misleading as to what other people are saying.

Just my opinion of course.


Uhh.. there haven't been that many posts this game for you to pretend to not see it.



Alan, every time I read your posts instead of getting "he's really digging through things and the logic makes real sense" I actually get "This is a total BS job and he's double talking himself around in circles"



Please explain to me how any of this is BS or talking in circles?

- A wolf is not going to fake reveal right at the start as the duke
- I feel the Duke actually makes a smarter choice not duking on day 1 and instead waiting to be more sure of their information, since usually a day 1 duking more often then not ends up killing a good guy, and leaves us with no voting information for day 2.
- Path's vote on Lathum after Lathum had claimed to be the duke was just really out of place and unnecessary, and most of his reasons for it were not very accurate based on what I said above in my previous two points.
- The Duke does not have to have a vote on him in order for him to be able to use his ability (and that is not even a very common rule in any other WW game)
- Lathum was not the only person to reveal yesterday and the bodyguard shouldn't only focus on protecting him such as Hannibal Lecter had suggested
- The Duke in this game only has a 40% chance of killing his intended target, so once the person he wanted to die ended up with greater than 40% of the vote (such as Path yesterday), it makes absolutely no sense for him to use his role there as it actually decreases the chance of the lynch he wants to occur.


Please tell me which of those are BS, and I will happily discuss it with you. Otherwise I'm going to assume you are the one spouting off BS and words that just sound good.


Instead of addressing any of it, you keep marching lock step with the same thing. And you say I am talking everyone in circles? I have been very clear on what every one of my points has been. Your attempts to cloud any of it won't cut it as long as I am around to make sure that no one falls for your attempts.

[Danny]

vote danny

I know he's got a limited time frame in which to access the game, but it still came off as one of those early spread votes to stray from what's going on with Alan.

Fair enough, but I voted before any of this stuff happened as there wasn't a guarantee I would be able to be on (needed to get out of a stupid work meeting which I did) before the deadline. I'll be leaving for class in about an hour, but I am caught up now and am thinking what to do with my vote.

Keep in mind though, your vote is doing the same thing you just gave as the reason for voting for me :)

[The Jackal]

Fair enough, but I voted before any of this stuff happened as there wasn't a guarantee I would be able to be on (needed to get out of a stupid work meeting which I did) before the deadline. I'll be leaving for class in about an hour, but I am caught up now and am thinking what to do with my vote.

Keep in mind though, your vote is doing the same thing you just gave as the reason for voting for me :)

Certainly true, but my reasoning comes from knowing that I'm not a wolf, you may not be either, but that's all. Plus, it wasn't -that- early. :)

[Danny]

I need to get going and will be back after deadline. I'm not thrilled with the idea of jumping on the AlanT bandwagon. I still am leaning towards PF or Jackal, and so I am going to stick with my vote from earlier.

[hoopsguy]

For whatever reason, RendeR seems to be unable to attract votes for two straight days. So I'll go after the person with votes who was on my list from earlier and hope that we fall into a good vote.

VOTE THE JACKAL

[Alan T]

Well, I'm going to disappear to watch House until deadline. Not much happening around here other than the crazy run on me. I would say for no reason, but I know full well their reason :)

Anyways, I would rather not be lynched.. I would rather lynch one of the wolves, but whatever happens happens I suppose. I think all of my arguments have been pretty straight forward and spelled out well. I'll let everyone else make the decision if they want to jump on this bandwagon to lynch me or not.

Vote Path

[Chief Rum]

Not true, even with me duking you it is not a guarentee of a lynch. BK just got very unlucky with random.org.

Is that the case? I thought the duke move might be the one 100% chance we have.

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, never mind. I just re-read the rules. Heck, Lathum could even get himself killed [i]by himself![/b] He has to include 10% on himself in every duke choice.

I think if I were the duke, I would consider holding off, too, in that case.

[Chief Rum]

"By himself" is supposed to be in italics. Way to go, dumbass.

[Chief Rum]

All right, I have to get a vote in.

I can buy some of Alan's logic. The thing that bugs me is his tendency to lock himself into an argument and not sway from it or properly consider other viewpoints, a well-known habit of his that happened to get me killed the last game I was in.

But it's enough for me for today.

VOTE PATH

[Passacaglia]

Vote count:

Alan T - RendeR (167), path12 (173), Hannibal Lecter (181)
path12 - Lathum (176), Alan T (198), Chief Rum (202)
The Jackal - Danny (150), hoospguy (197)
Danny - The Jackal (189)

[Passacaglia]

The villagers get together and decide that The Jackal must die, and he does. The Jackal was a villager!

[hoopsguy]

Well, I guess it is good that we are not lynching roles but it would be nice to fall into a wolf one of these times. Particularly if it is not going to be one of the top vote getters, as they get left alone to come back into discussion again the following day.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Is is possible that the good Dr. Caglia has reversed the odds? To confuse use perhaps?

[RendeR]

whale shit.

[The Jackal]

Bah.

[Alan T]

Well I have mixed feelings about still being alive. I am relieved that I did not die as it is always better to lynch a wolf than a villager, but Jackal's death is the same as if I had died, and at least with my death people would have learned about Path, Hannibal Lecter and Render.

Either way, as I said before the game even started, I likely won't be around at all tommorrow due to travelling. I'll check in the morning before I head out to put a vote in, but then I'll be gone so bandwagon away!

I know everyone will miss my rambling lengthy posts :)

[PackerFanatic]

Gah - that was a complete brain fart on my part not getting a vote in :( Sorry cats.

[Alan T]

Bah, I was hoping night results would be up by now. I need to get going though. I am assuming they aren't going to night kill me , so hopefully as long as I am still alive, Pass will take this vote a bit early. I might be able to check in later on my blackberry, but not sure.

Vote Path

[Passacaglia]

Again, the villagers wake up to find a good guy missing. Lathum was the duke!

[Passacaglia]

Bah, I was hoping night results would be up by now. I need to get going though. I am assuming they aren't going to night kill me , so hopefully as long as I am still alive, Pass will take this vote a bit early. I might be able to check in later on my blackberry, but not sure.

Vote Path

My bad on that. I meant for the night deadline to be 7 Eastern, 6 Central, and got myself messed up on the time difference, and even that is just to make sure all orders are in before I get to the computer, which is usually 7 Central.

[hoopsguy]

OK, this would be the point where it would be pretty helpful for a seer to come forward if he has scanned two people who are still alive. We could start building a trust list and actually have a good % chance of hitting a wolf today (3 trusted, 3+ wolves among remaining 5).

I'm not that guy - otherwise I would come forward.

If the seer does reveal himself today then there is still only a 40% chance that he dies overnight. And I'm hoping that we get a dice roll to go our way at some point this game ...

[Danny]

I am the seer

Night 1 I scanned Render and he is good
Night 2 I scanned Hannibal and he is a wolf

Like Hoopsguy said, I feel the list of people the wolves think could be seers has definitely shrunk and I probably won't have that much higher of a chance of being killed by revealing and would rather put out what I know then risk being killed and you guys being forced to guess based on the hints I left.

I didn't reveal a role day one because there was no need to. I had no votes on me and was able to be around until deadline just in case I needed to say something.

[Danny]

Vote Hannibal

[Chief Rum]

Wow, great job Danny!

VOTE HANNIBAL

[Chief Rum]

Well, I am working two jobs today, so I am out of here, but it looks like our job is done, assuming Danny is on the up and up. See you guys tonight.

[Danny]

Some additional analysis for after today since well I may not be alive tomorrow :)

2 or 3 (probably 2) out of AlanT, Hoopsguy, Chief Rum, Packerfanatic and Path have to be bad.

I tend to agree with what Hoopsguy said yesterday about there not being more than one wolf on AlanT. We know Render is good, I also personally believe Path is likely good as well though that's not for sure.

If for now we have him as good (not cleared by any means) then two or three out of Hoopsguy, AlanT, Chief Rum and Packer Fanatic are wolves. My scan tonight will be going towards these individuals.

[Lathum]

drats

[Danny]

The kid I work with is sick, so I am home today. Also means I am going back to sleep, but I'll be back on before my regular time (unless I sleep all day :)

[Hannibal Lecter]

Well this is unfortunate, I have meeting most of the afternoon, so I will only be in occasionally to argue. I am the seer. I didnt want to come forward until I had more hard evidence, and I belive this gives me what I was unable to find!

night one. Hoops is good
Night two Alan T is good (which confuses the hell out of me)

I think lynching me is bad, but it will confirm Danny is a wolf, something I was unable to find.

and woo being the seer in back to back games! :D

[Hannibal Lecter]

vote danny

[hoopsguy]

I'll trust Danny for now, hope that we are not in some wolf end game scenario. I should have some time this afternoon to discuss the candidates. My initial data point would be voting records; wolves will not want to create 10% chances (rough estimate for first couple of days) that they are lynched, particularly after what happened with BK on D1. I know right now that this will make my voting record look particularly bad if Danny is the good guy and telling the truth, as I've voted for RendeR and The Jackal.

VOTE HANNIBAL LECTER

[hoopsguy]

One more note before I run - Danny did suggest in his first post yesterday that he did not suspect RendeR. I recall this because I argued against his posted reasons for doing so at the time. But this is another reason to trust Danny over Hannibal. I would encourage Hannibal to try and find posts earlier in the thread that would back his claim of being the seer.

[path12]

Interesting. Always fun to have a double claim. Until I hear more I'm going with the original.

VOTE HANNIBAL

[RendeR]

Well this is unfortunate, I have meeting most of the afternoon, so I will only be in occasionally to argue. I am the seer. I didnt want to come forward until I had more hard evidence, and I belive this gives me what I was unable to find!

night one. Hoops is good
Night two Alan T is good (which confuses the hell out of me)

I think lynching me is bad, but it will confirm Danny is a wolf, something I was unable to find.

and woo being the seer in back to back games! :D


See this is the kind of thing I like to have happen. A second claim of seer after the first one cleared me, and I know I'm good so I trust the first guy far more, add to that he claims the one guy thats been pinging my wolf-dar all game long (Alan) is also good and throws a cute comment in with it.

VOTE HANNIBAL

[Alan T]

See this is the kind of thing I like to have happen. A second claim of seer after the first one cleared me, and I know I'm good so I trust the first guy far more, add to that he claims the one guy thats been pinging my wolf-dar all game long (Alan) is also good and throws a cute comment in with it.

VOTE HANNIBAL


Don't give me that crap. You went out of your way to be insulting and make sure the entire world knew how I was talking circles or whatever you said when I was explaining how Path's arguments made no sense and then showed how Hannibal's points seemed to be an attempt to try to give support to Path's discussion. You went out of your way to put your neck on the line to defend the two of them. I know that Danny scanned you, but the way you want so far way overboard on your discussion beyond the realm of possibility, I wouldn't be suprised if a balancing feature this game was having you as a cunning wolf even. I don't need your trying to spin my attacks on a wolf as it meaning I am bad, when you were supporting the wolf.

Anyhows, only had a minute to check in, I fully believe Danny's scan of Hannibal since I pretty much have convinced myself that the three wolves are Path, Hannibal and Render. I think it seems very likely that Render has to be a cunning wolf. Why else would he stick his neck out to try to defend Path and Hannibal other than to move votes off of them. In a game where percentages are in play, I bet wolves are less likely to vote for other wolves unless it is a forgone conclusion (such as today), and every single vote they can move off of a wolf to someone else is a fractional improvement of their odds to escape the lynch.

Anyhows, I'll move my vote for today to try to help add to the odds that Hannibal is lynched. I see absolutely no reason to not go after Path tommorrow though. I am pretty sure I'll be gone now until some point after 4 or 5am ET now.

Unvote Path
Vote Hannibal Lecter

[Hannibal Lecter]

meh, oh well. youll see that Danny is the wolf when the vote comes.

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE HANNIBAL

As it stands, we don't have a reason not to trust the first one to come out.

[Passacaglia]

I've got 7 for Hannibal Lecter, and 1 for Danny.

[Passacaglia]

The villagers get together and decide that Hannibal Lecter must be the one to go. Hannibal Lecter was a wolf!

[Hannibal Lecter]

lame

[PackerFanatic]

Booyah. Well done Danny!

[RendeR]

Who's next then...I have MY opinion of course .

[hoopsguy]

Anyone see a reason not to discuss who to scan in the thread? The wolves are going to have a 40% chance of getting Danny tonight and that order will be going in regardless of who he intends to scan.

[RendeR]

Well there's been a lot of contention between Alan and I, I've already been cleared, so lets scan Alan tonight and we can then vote based on that result tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

Just going to do a quick vote check - not that many posts in this thread.

[hoopsguy]

Here is a quick vote recap. I've covered the votes by the people who are still alive and uncleared. In other words, the people who are potential scan targets for tonight.

DAY 1:
Packer - Chief (28)
Chief - Packer (29)
Path - Alan (66), Hoops (124)
Jackal - Path (111)
Barkeep - Hannibal (wolf)

Note - I initially voted RendeR, switched to Path when following Lathum D1. But my vote was initially on RendeR, who is a cleared good at this point.

DAY 2:
Alan T - Path (173), Hannibal (wolf)
Jackal - Hoops (197)
Path - Alan T (198), Chief (202)
Note - no vote by Packer

[hoopsguy]

OK, looking over those candidates here are my thoughts:
1. Hannibal voted for Alan T yesterday, and was 3rd man on him. Doesn't make sense for Alan to be a wolf, unless the wolves were already preparing to give up one of their own. But in a 2-1 spot, I would be surprised if this was the case.

2. I've got one known bad vote (Jackal) and would have had another if I had not followed Lathum (switched off RendeR). My voting record is poor this game. I know I'm a villager, but I would completely understand being scanned and/or voted off tomorrow if we get no result or a villager.

3. Chief Rum would be my choice to scan. He has votes on two people who are not known at this point in Packer and Path. If he is shown as a wolf it just about 100% clears Path, since he tied the vote on D2 at the end between Path and Alan. The wolves would not push one of their own into this position.

4. PackerFanatic would be my 2nd choice to scan. He gets a little more latitude from me than Chief based on his "no vote" on D2. Wolves generally have more incentive than villagers to vote, since they need to control the majority with their actions. Or use their minority block to protect their own. On this particular day neither one would be true, but I would also suggest that a player who has not been a wolf many times (if ever?) would be more excited about getting a wolf role and as a result be less likely to miss a vote. Kinda thin, but that is how I'm separating Rum/Packer at the moment.

5. I think we learn more about Path through the results of the Chief scan. If Chief is scanned and comes up cleared I would likely look at Packer and Path as the most likely discussion options tomorrow.


Anyway, it is obviously Danny's decision and there is a 40% chance we won't have him around tomorrow to share his findings. But those are my thoughts on the remaining uncleared players right now.

[Danny]

I won't reveal all of my breakdowns, but my thinking has been much the same as Hoopsguy, in fact Chief was my other 40% along with Hannibal last night. He will be on my list tonight again

I'm not overly worried about your votes since I voted the same as you day 2 and considered voting Render day 1 as well. That said, there's only four people I am considering, so there's a chance of you being scanned as well.

I don't really feel specifically strong about anyone at this point, though I would advise strongly that tomorrow not turn into a series of AlanT/Render arguments. Render has been scanned good. There is no indication that a cunning wolf would have been added. Doing so without any kind of new info would be a bit unfair directly after the last game anyway.

I'm not convinced AlanT is good and he will likely be on my scan list. The way AlanT said Hannibal would follow the vote on him and then Hannibal did seemed like it could have been a bit scripted to me. Considering Alan's schecule, I wouldn't rule out him putting himself at a slightly higher risk to improve trust of others.

[Chief Rum]

Terrific catch on the wolf there, Danny.

I have no issue being scanned, as we can always use one more cleared villlager. That said, I would much prefer we catch a wolf, so I hope Danny chose wisely for his other spots.

As for hoops' analysis, pretty solid except for one thing: the part where we also need to scan him. It seems to me the "uncleared list" was missing someone there.

[Danny]

My scan is in.

Hopefully the 60% prevails and I live until morning.

[Alan T]

I won't reveal all of my breakdowns, but my thinking has been much the same as Hoopsguy, in fact Chief was my other 40% along with Hannibal last night. He will be on my list tonight again

I'm not overly worried about your votes since I voted the same as you day 2 and considered voting Render day 1 as well. That said, there's only four people I am considering, so there's a chance of you being scanned as well.

I don't really feel specifically strong about anyone at this point, though I would advise strongly that tomorrow not turn into a series of AlanT/Render arguments. Render has been scanned good. There is no indication that a cunning wolf would have been added. Doing so without any kind of new info would be a bit unfair directly after the last game anyway.

I'm not convinced AlanT is good and he will likely be on my scan list. The way AlanT said Hannibal would follow the vote on him and then Hannibal did seemed like it could have been a bit scripted to me. Considering Alan's schecule, I wouldn't rule out him putting himself at a slightly higher risk to improve trust of others.


I hope you did scan me actually. I can't believe with how waaay out on the ledge that Render has been this game, that it should automatically be assumed there is no cunning wolf in play here.

Remember Render went out of his way to draw as much attention to himself as possible without saying anything what so ever basically. All he did was defend Hannibal and Path, when I had clearly shown where Hannibal was covering for Path.

Path is the correct vote tommorrow, and if he shows up evil, Render is right after him. I don't care what your scan says.. No one plays the way Render has unless you are a wolf that knows you can't be scanned or you just are trying way too hard to hit the home run that you completely skip over all of the logical evidence.

Nothing has changed since the first two days, there is a direct link between Path -> Hannibal, and Render was supporting both of them. I do hope you scanned me. then maybe people would start paying attention to what I have been saying and less attention to I must be bad because I am me or whatever people have been saying with the whole Circular arguement discussion that both Hannibal and Render were trying to use on me.

Anyways, I'm way over tired as I just got in town. Good night!

[Passacaglia]

The villagers wake up to find Danny missing. Danny was the Seer!

[hoopsguy]

Man, it really feels like we have been getting the business from random.org this game.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, I listed myself as #2 on my analysis list. My voting record has been bunk, so I'm fair game for suspicion and that would have included a scan if Danny had been so inclined.

[hoopsguy]

So, looks like we are going to have to do this the hard way. Even though I put Alan on a more elevated trust level than some of the other cleared (Hannibal vote #3) it seems like we are looking in opposite directions for wolves. My preferred order, until someone convinces me otherwise (certainly can be done) would be the following:

1. Chief Rum
2. PackerFanatic
3. Path
4. Alan
5. Me (duh)

[Chief Rum]

Chief, I listed myself as #2 on my analysis list. My voting record has been bunk, so I'm fair game for suspicion and that would have included a scan if Danny had been so inclined.

I saw that. I was more referring to the post prior to that, where you list votes. But I see now I misread that list, thinking the "uncleared" were on the left of your lists there. But I see now those are the vote targets of the uncleared, while the actual uncleared are on the right. Sorry, misunderstanding on my part.

Personally, I think if I were doing a list like that, I would have shown the uncleared as a list, and just showed their votes to the left, as the necessary information is a little easier to grasp than how you presented it there. But that's just me.

In any case, sorry for the mix up.

[Danny]

Damn, good luck village