WW LXXXVII Terror at the University :Game over, Wolves win!

[Lathum]

I figured I would step up and host a small game as long as no one has a problem with it.

I would like to start Wednesday with a day 1 deadline for Thursday. If we don't get enough people by then we can start Monday.

Deadlines will be 10:00 PM EST and will be a 24 hr deadline.

Game will be vanilla WW with no real twists.

[Lathum]

WW: Terror at the University


You just started at University, you are your own person now. All grown up and ready to be out on your own. You are in charge of your own destiny, where the choices you make are yours. The smell of freedom is in the air, no parents around to tell you what to do. All is right with the world. Or is it.....

Game is going to be a basic game with some flavor mixed in.. We will use a 24 hour deadline with a 10:00 PM EST deadline.

Werewolf is a game of lying, cheating and deciet.

Each day you will vote for one person to be lynched. The player who receives the most votes will be lynched. In the event of a tie there will be no lynch that day.

Each night the wolves will submit a player they want to kill.

All actions will be processed using a deadline of 10:30 EST

Some rules.

There is no editing of posts for whatever reason.
There is no quoting of PM's received from the GM
There is no discussion of the game anywhere other then this thread

Votes for a player will be submitted in bold, for example

VOTE LATHUM

you may unvote a player and revote a player

UNVOTE LATHUM
VOTE PLAYER X



Roles-

Good

Students- Vanilla villagers

Maintnence Man- You know the university better then anyone. With all the time spent in the tunnels and ducts you hear whispers and pick up things. Basic seer role.

School President- You have the power to make important descions. One time in the game you can make the descion to change to outcome of the lynch vote.

Captain of the Football Team- Big, Strong, Fast and handsome, filled with school spirit. Each night you can choose one player to protect. You may not protect the same player two nights in a row.


Bad

Wolf- You eat students, duh!! Wolves must submit a night kill target by the deadline and include which wolf will perform the kill.

Brutal Wolf- If you are lynched you can take one unlucky student with you.

Janitor- YOu have been cleaning up for these snot-nosed spoiled punks for years. You would like nothing more then to see them all perish. You count as a student for win condition purposes, but know who the wolves are and win if they win.




Win conditions-

Villagers- Kill all the wolves

Wolves- Obtain a 1:1 ration with the villagers.



roommates- Since this is college everyone has a roommate. One room will have 3 students. Like in college roommates will be assigned randomly. You can PM fully with your roommate. The only exception is you can't forward the PM I sent you of your role.

If a wolf attempts to kill his roommate he will succed 100% of the time, regardless of who the Captain protects. The only exception is if the Captain protects himself. If the Captain protects himself and his roommate happens to be a wolf that attacks him an epic struggle will ensue.

It is made public who are roommates.



ROOMMATES

Johnathan Ezerik
Hoopsguy

DaddyTorgo
Grammaticus

EagleFan
Danny

Telle
Hannibal Lechter

Abe Sergant
Jeff61

Barkeep
Chiefrum

RPIFan
The Jackal
JEHeinze

[Lathum]

1. RPI Fan
2. DaddyTorgo
3. Jeff- killed night 6- Student
4. Telle- lynched day 6- student
5. Eaglefan- lynched day 2- wolf
6. Chief Rum
7. Hoopsguy-lynched day 3-wolf
8. Hannibal- lynched day 5- student
9. The Jackal-killed night 3- Maitnence man
10. Danny- killed night 4- football captain
11. Jonathan Ezerik- killed day 2- school president
12. Grammaticus- lynched Day 4 - student
13. Barkeep- killed night 5- student
14. JeHeinze
15. Abe

[RPI-Fan]

RPI-Fan

[DaddyTorgo]

IN

7pm EST might be a bit of tough deadline for me - i usually leave the office at 5 and don't get home till around 6:30, but i'm still in

[EagleFan]

In

vote Lathum

Can I still do that? ;)

[Telle]

I'm in. Although I probably won't be around at deadline much because of the little ones.

[jeff061]

I'm in. Haven't played since these things first started.

[Chief Rum]

Inyo.

[hoopsguy]

Sign me up.

[Lathum]

I would love to have at least 12

[Hannibal Lecter]

n

[The Jackal]

Sure, I'll play.

[Danny]

In

[Lathum]

up to ten, hopefully we can get a few more and start tomorrow.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

In.

[Lathum]

Wow, some blasts from the pasts

[RendeR]

If you really need a 12th to start the game I'll play.

[hoopsguy]

In.

Welcome to Operation Sports!

Back when I was running my game last fall I went looking for everyone who had previously played in either my game or one of the ten previous WW games. At that point I did not see you having signed into the site since the move and figured that you had either moved on to other Internet pursuits or never moved over after the OS transition.

[Lathum]

OK, we got 12 quicker then I thought. I am gonna keep signups open for now and start on the original date/ time so if you guys think of anyone who may want to play hit them up

[Chief Rum]

In.

Hey, there's a face I haven't seen in a while. Welcome back!

[Grammaticus]

Can I still get in?

[Lathum]

Can I still get in?

for sure

[Barkeep49]

I too would like to play. It's very nice to see so many old friends back in.

[hoopsguy]

14 players, not a bad showing to start the new year.

Not having a PM at 9AM CST = downside of Lathum changing coasts :)

[jeheinz72]

If there's still room/time...then let's dance.

[Lathum]

OK< pretty nice turnout.

I am going to leave signups open until about 5:00 EST today. I'll start sending out roles then.

HOpefully I can get them all out, if not I'll have to wait until tonight after dinner ( about 10:00 PM, est.

The first deadline will be 7:00 PM EST tomorrow night. I may be a little tardy with the results because I am having some friends over for the BCD game.


We will then have a normal deadline on Friday and no weekend play and resume on Monday, unless the Giants lose, in which case I'll be curled up in a ball on the floor.

[The Jackal]

go eagles

[hoopsguy]

go eagles

VOTE THE JACKAL
VOTE EAGLEFAN
VOTE NIGHTFALL

[Hannibal Lecter]

ok so i need to lynch someone! lets get this going!

[RendeR]

Ok, since you got more than 12 I'll bow out again. I was just trying to help you get enough to play. Enjoy guys! I'll be back at some point.

[Lathum]

Ok, since you got more than 12 I'll bow out again. I was just trying to help you get enough to play. Enjoy guys! I'll be back at some point.

Sorry to see you go.

I am swamped today so roles likely won't go out until this evening. If you are an East Coaster you may not get it untill after you go to bed, unless you are DT who doesn't sleep/

[DaddyTorgo]

Sorry to see you go.

I am swamped today so roles likely won't go out until this evening. If you are an East Coaster you may not get it untill after you go to bed, unless you are DT who doesn't sleep/

DT doesn't believe in sleep. He believes in staying up until AT LEAST 1:30 in the morning, more like 2am. Actually on Monday night it was almost 3am.

If I went to bed at like 10pm or 11pm I honestly would hate my life so much more - I'd probably be suicidal, because I'd feel like all I did was work and then come home and eat and have an hour or two to relax before bed. I need the excess time from 11pm-2am or whatever in order to make me feel like I'm devoting enough time each day to relaxing and having hobbies (even if my hobbies are surfing the web and playing FM).

I'll be waiting for my role tonight!

[Abe Sargent]

In if I can still get in

[Lathum]

In if I can still get in

yup

[The Jackal]

Sleep is overrated.

[Lathum]

PM's going out now.

If you are a student you will just get a PM that says

you are a student

[DaddyTorgo]

that's the PM I got! Student here!

[Lathum]

all roles are out.

Day 1 deadline 10:00 PM EST Thursday

[hoopsguy]

Roommate concept is kinda cool, I think. Hopefully Jonathan doesn't get sick of me sending him PMs by the end of D1.

[Grammaticus]

I am a student and I am the messy roommate. These rooms are too small.

[Danny]

So when I bring a girl back to the room, is she going to have to stare at a poster of Westbrook and Mcnabb the whole time? I might get jealous!

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Roommate concept is kinda cool, I think. Hopefully Jonathan doesn't get sick of me sending him PMs by the end of D1.

As long as you aren't like my first roommate and you don't:

wear my clothes without my knowledge
eat all my food without providing any yourself
leave the window open allowing ants to get all over my bed
break my phone
wake me up at three in the morning (when I have class at 8) so your drunk ass can tell me that you just climbed a tower and it was awesome


Avoid all that and I think we'll be great roommates. :)

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Wait, forgot one:


don't rip out my throat in the middle of the night (or any other time of day for that matter)

[Chief Rum]

Wait, forgot one:


don't rip out my throat in the middle of the night (or any other time of day for that matter)


Did you just watch Roadhouse or something?

[Chief Rum]

I am a student.

It is my guess I am not an overly bright one, because I am confused by the deadlines.

I see 7 p.m. EST references, but the title says 10 p.m. Lathum has hinted that tomorrow's deadline is different than normal, so I believe he intends to have a 7 p.m. EST deadline tomorrow (4 p.m. his and my time), while returning to a later deadline time for other nights.

So on that assumption, I will not return before the deadline is processed tomorrow night (although I will normally be able to do so in the future). So I have to put in a vote now.

VOTE DANNY

Why? I don't have a reason, of course. I don't want to vote for some of the long time guys who are back from long breaks, and I have voted too much for most everyone else recently. It's Day One, people! Blah...

As usual, any reason to construe this as actual evidence I have even the tiniest hint that Danny is a wolf and thus he is deserving of a pile on will earn the person giving that reason my vote for tomorrow.

[The Jackal]

checking in as a student.. see, i stay up late too

[Hannibal Lecter]

NICE! I get to room with telle.... Ill do the cooking :)

Im a student too!

[Barkeep49]

In college my freshman year I was assigned a triple. It was good in a lot of ways bad in others. Since I know it to be bad I'm going to go ahead and vote for one of them. A spurious reason? Of course it is. It's day 1.

Vote the Jackal

[Danny]

So, with 15 players, there would likely be two regular wolves, the brutal and the janitor?

[RPI-Fan]

I'm a student! For now just voting some someone who hasn't checked in yet, subject to change, etc.

VOTE GRAMMATICUS

[Barkeep49]

I think 3 wolves is definitely possible. I think 2 wolves works for an 11 player game. I think with 4 more players you need a 3rd wolf.

[jeff061]

Additional student reporting in!

[Danny]

I am a student.

It is my guess I am not an overly bright one, because I am confused by the deadlines.

I see 7 p.m. EST references, but the title says 10 p.m. Lathum has hinted that tomorrow's deadline is different than normal, so I believe he intends to have a 7 p.m. EST deadline tomorrow (4 p.m. his and my time), while returning to a later deadline time for other nights.

So on that assumption, I will not return before the deadline is processed tomorrow night (although I will normally be able to do so in the future). So I have to put in a vote now.

VOTE DANNY

Why? I don't have a reason, of course. I don't want to vote for some of the long time guys who are back from long breaks, and I have voted too much for most everyone else recently. It's Day One, people! Blah...

As usual, any reason to construe this as actual evidence I have even the tiniest hint that Danny is a wolf and thus he is deserving of a pile on will earn the person giving that reason my vote for tomorrow.

I reading it as being a 10pm eastern deadline today and then 7pm eastern going forward.

[hoopsguy]

So, with 15 players, there would likely be two regular wolves, the brutal and the janitor?

Sounds like the right ratio to me.

[hoopsguy]

Early vote count:
Danny - CR (46)
Jackal - BK (49)
Gram - RPI (51)

[Hannibal Lecter]

Sounds reasonable, now hopefully Lathum wakes up and clarify the deadline issue!

[hoopsguy]

The deadline does not matter to me for today, as I'm going to be heading out fairly early to meet "classmates' to watch the BCS championship game. So I'll likely be posting a mid-afternoon vote.

[jeheinz72]

Checking in, student here. No inkling of who or when I'll vote. Sometime today, that's about all I know!

[jeheinz72]

RPIFan - Those dishes aren't going to do themselves ya know.

[Telle]

Student checking in.

[Telle]

NICE! I get to room with telle.... Ill do the cooking :)

Im a student too!

Is this a swipe at my cooking abilities?? Well I may not be the best cook, but I'll have you know I'm a damn good baker. So be prepared to get nice and fat on cookies, cakes, and pies :)

[Hannibal Lecter]

Student checking in.


sup roomie!

[Hannibal Lecter]

Is this a swipe at my cooking abilities?? Well I may not be the best cook, but I'll have you know I'm a damn good baker. So be prepared to get nice and fat on cookies, cakes, and pies :)
I like minceMEAT pie....

[hoopsguy]

Is this a swipe at my cooking abilities?? Well I may not be the best cook, but I'll have you know I'm a damn good baker. So be prepared to get nice and fat on cookies, cakes, and pies :)

Looking to fatten him up before your meal, wolfie? :p

[hoopsguy]

Is it worth having a discussion here about the wolf kill options? I do not necessarily want to "coach" them but the discussion might prove beneficial to the roled student.

I think Lathum has put together a pretty interesting rule twist with this game and would kind of like to discuss some of my thoughts on it, but I'll go along with the majority if people would rather sit back and see what happens initially.

[Telle]

Is it worth having a discussion here about the wolf kill options? I do not necessarily want to "coach" them but the discussion might prove beneficial to the roled student.

I think Lathum has put together a pretty interesting rule twist with this game and would kind of like to discuss some of my thoughts on it, but I'll go along with the majority if people would rather sit back and see what happens initially.

One thing is I think we'll have to be careful about is the tendency to assume that if someone is killed that their roommate likely did it.. it might be a bit of a gut reaction. The wolves might bank on this and avoid roommate kills for awhile in order to spread around suspicion.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Is it worth having a discussion here about the wolf kill options? I do not necessarily want to "coach" them but the discussion might prove beneficial to the roled student.

I think Lathum has put together a pretty interesting rule twist with this game and would kind of like to discuss some of my thoughts on it, but I'll go along with the majority if people would rather sit back and see what happens initially.

I'm up for having that discussion. I don't know if it would help out the wolves at all, but any discussion is good for us.

[hoopsguy]

I'm up for having that discussion. I don't know if it would help out the wolves at all, but any discussion is good for us.

Pretty much my thoughts.

Oh, and I do not think you need to worry about any "ant issues" with me. Although that tower things sounds kinda cool ...

[Jonathan Ezarik]

One thing is I think we'll have to be careful about is the tendency to assume that if someone is killed that their roommate likely did it.. it might be a bit of a gut reaction. The wolves might bank on this and avoid roommate kills for awhile in order to spread around suspicion.

I think it's perfectly fine to throw someone into the possible wolf column if their roommate turns up dead, because what are the chances that there is more than one wolf in a room? I'm not for automatically lynching that person, but I'll definitely not want to chill with them alone after dark. Unless, of course, it's a hot coed. ;)

[Danny]

I'm always ok with interesting discussion, more information usually helps the village more than the wolves.

[Telle]

I think it's perfectly fine to throw someone into the possible wolf column if their roommate turns up dead, because what are the chances that there is more than one wolf in a room? I'm not for automatically lynching that person, but I'll definitely not want to chill with them alone after dark. Unless, of course, it's a hot coed. ;)

I think it's fine to put them in the "someone to think about" category.. but I'd be careful about having sudden pile-ons on roommates. I think that works to the wolves' favor.

[hoopsguy]

Well, here is why I think that the roommates will be relatively safe, at least with the seer around:

1.) Seer is likely to scan their roommate(s) initially to see if they are worth talking to via PMs
2.) Seers next target is likely to be the surviving roommate from N1 kill
3.) Repeat step #2 for each day

So I think the top wolf priority will be getting the seer (duh - this is WW, right?) because until they do they will be figuratively walking on eggshells with their kills. If the seer lives too many days they kind of box themselves in a corner because they will inadvertantly create a circle-of-trust (surviving roommates) while exposing themselves to higher risk with the bodyguard block if he is still alive.

Anyway, I think the wolves most likely avoid their roommates early on, foregoing the "sure thing" to avoid the likelihood of being scanned the following day.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

NICE! I get to room with telle.... Ill do the cooking :)

I can't believe this prestigious university admitted someone with such, um, questionable tastes.

VOTE HANNIBAL LECTER

It's nothing personal, Hannibal. Well, except it is. I have this thing against fava beans.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Hoops, that makes sense....

[EagleFan]

My initial plan was to vote for who-ever had the last post when I got in the thread. That was Telle but is now hoops as I enter the thread. Reading through the votes has caused me to change my mind as someone is already going after my roommate. I don't know if my roommate is good or bad yet but I at least want to be able to PM someone for a couple days anyway so in defense of my roommate.

vote CR

Vote may change but since it's day one it probably won't (unless a wolf wants to out himself).

[Danny]

Hey Roomie, how does pizza sound tonight for the big game?

[EagleFan]

Pizza and beer sounds great (and a couple cheerleaders?).

Going to be offline for a while, work calls. Will check back once in a while when I can find the time.

[jeheinz72]

Vote EagleFan

That seems like a pretty selfish and conjured up reason to vote EF. Understandable since it's Day One and all, but I didn't like how that read whatsoever.

[Danny]

Well, here is why I think that the roommates will be relatively safe, at least with the seer around:

1.) Seer is likely to scan their roommate(s) initially to see if they are worth talking to via PMs
2.) Seers next target is likely to be the surviving roommate from N1 kill
3.) Repeat step #2 for each day

So I think the top wolf priority will be getting the seer (duh - this is WW, right?) because until they do they will be figuratively walking on eggshells with their kills. If the seer lives too many days they kind of box themselves in a corner because they will inadvertantly create a circle-of-trust (surviving roommates) while exposing themselves to higher risk with the bodyguard block if he is still alive.

Anyway, I think the wolves most likely avoid their roommates early on, foregoing the "sure thing" to avoid the likelihood of being scanned the following day.

I'm not sure we'll be able to assume the seer has scanned surviving roommates. Might be the smart thing, but if people get a gut feeling for someone that might take precedence over scanning the surviving roomate.

[hoopsguy]

40% of votes in:

Danny - CR (46)
Jackal - BK (49)
Gram - RPI (51)
Hannibal - Jonathan (74)
CR - Eagle (76)
Eagle - Heinz (79)

[Telle]

Vote count as of post #79:

Danny - 1 - Cheif Rum (46)
The Jackel - 1 - Barkeep (49)
Grammaticus - 1 - RPI-Fan (51)
Hannibal - 1 - Jonathan Ezarik (74)
Chief Rum - 1 - EagleFan (76)
EagleFan - 1 - jeheinz (79)

[Danny]

So far 5 votes for 5 different people. We'll need to consolidate that as it's too spread out to tell us much later in the game and gives the wolves even more of an advantage in the day 1 lynch.

[jeheinz72]

I think if I were the Seer, I'd follow a plan relatively similar to what hoops laid out.

[hoopsguy]

I'm not sure we'll be able to assume the seer has scanned surviving roommates. Might be the smart thing, but if people get a gut feeling for someone that might take precedence over scanning the surviving roomate.

Nope, I do not think that the students can 100% assume that at all. But I think the wolves have to be concerned about drawing attention. Even moreso now that it has been posted as a thought process in the thread.

[Abe Sargent]

Lo all. I actually agree with jeheinz that EF's logic was out there, but I don't want to be the first person to cast a second vote on anyone on Day One. Yuck - attention.

Ah screw it. I got nothing else. I agree.

Vote EagleFan

[Danny]

Missed one, 6 for 6, I would look at people who casted votes 3-6 as possible wolves.

[Telle]

Everyone has now checked in.

[Telle]

Lo all. I actually agree with jeheinz that EF's logic was out there, but I don't want to be the first person to cast a second vote on anyone on Day One. Yuck - attention.

Ah screw it. I got nothing else. I agree.

Vote EagleFan

See, I actually thought that EagleFan didn't have a bad idea. And it's as good as anything for a Day 1 vote.

[Danny]

I have no idea if EF is a wolf, but to me his vote was in the spirit of fun and role play, no different than some of the other votes. I don't like the fact that it spread out the vote more, but jumping on his vote and spreading it out even more is at least equally suspicious.

[hoopsguy]

See, I actually thought that EagleFan didn't have a bad idea. And it's as good as anything for a Day 1 vote.

I do not think that it is a bad idea, but it is kind of a selfish idea insofar as if we all apply the same logic then the vote is a real mess. We end up with a very spread vote, a near-tie, and no meaningful way to track the vote on later days. So I would hope that this idea does not catch on today.

[EagleFan]

Vote EagleFan

That seems like a pretty selfish and conjured up reason to vote EF. Understandable since it's Day One and all, but I didn't like how that read whatsoever.

Would you rather I random dot com it? It's day one, I need something to use to determine the vote so that makes as much sense as any.

Interesting, last game you tried using twisted logic to get the vote going towards me and I remember how that one ended.

[Lathum]

Sorry about thew deadline confusion, I was thinking in west coast time for whatever reason.

The deadline is still 7:00 PM EST

[Hannibal Lecter]

See, I actually thought that EagleFan didn't have a bad idea. And it's as good as anything for a Day 1 vote.


i actually thought the same thing... but eh!

[Hannibal Lecter]

Sorry about thew deadline confusion, I was thinking in west coast time for whatever reason.

The deadline is still 7:00 PM EST


thasnk!

[Hannibal Lecter]

Random.org says

vote-RPI Fan

[Telle]

I do not think that it is a bad idea, but it is kind of a selfish idea insofar as if we all apply the same logic then the vote is a real mess. We end up with a very spread vote, a near-tie, and no meaningful way to track the vote on later days. So I would hope that this idea does not catch on today.

Well the vote is already pretty spread out.. six votees with only one having more than one vote. Hopefully we'll start consolidating soon.

[Hannibal Lecter]

oh yeah, we dont need new cadidites....
unvote rpi
vote grammaticus

[Danny]

Random.org says

vote-RPI Fan

Really, let's not spread this out even more :p

[Hannibal Lecter]

Really, let's not spread this out even more :p


:p

[Danny]

oh yeah, we dont need new cadidites....
unvote rpi
vote grammaticus


Better, at least there are only 6 candidates instead of 7 now:eek:

[Hannibal Lecter]

And I would like to say, 'ITS GREAT TO BE PLAYING AGAIN!"

[Jonathan Ezarik]

And I would like to say, 'ITS GREAT TO BE PLAYING AGAIN!"

Amen to that.

Thinking about this some more, I'm going to move my vote off Hannibal. I want to keep the roommate situation around at least for one night, so I'm going to switch my attention to the room with three people. And since neither RPI nor Heinz have any votes, that leaves the Jackal.

UNVOTE HANNIBAL LECTER
VOTE THE JACKAL

[Hannibal Lecter]

did we discuss weekend play?

[Telle]

Vote count as of post #104:

Danny - 1 - Cheif Rum (46)
The Jackel - 2 - Barkeep (49), Jonathan Ezarik (103)
Grammaticus - 2 - RPI-Fan (51), Hannibal (98)
Chief Rum - 1 - EagleFan (76)
EagleFan - 2 - jeheinz (79), Abe Sargent (86)

[Danny]

I believe deadline today, tomorrow and and then next deadline on Monday

[Lathum]

I believe deadline today, tomorrow and and then next deadline on Monday

thats correct

[Danny]

thats correct

The t is not red, is that some sort of hint about Telle? Hmmm

[jeff061]

Vote Eaglefan

At risk of piling on, I was planning on voting for him anyways for reasons already stated.

Obviously I have no clue of his guilt, doesn't take much to sway towards a vote this early.

[Lathum]

OK gang, I'll be out a good portion of the day. I am gonna try and check in at some point during the day, today is just really busy for me between running errands and classes.

If someone could keep up with a vote count that would be very helpfull.

[hoopsguy]

Telle, I'm fine with leaving the vote counting to you if you are going to be around.

[hoopsguy]

OK, next thought on the in-game mechanics and how they play out:

What would you do if you were a wolf and your villager roommate had a vote? Would you try to bury him, protect him, or ignore it?

My initial thought on this is that it is better to see your roommate voted off than you doing the dirty work, at least early in the game. Sure you have the 100% chance of getting your roommate with the night kill, but if he is voted off it was the "will of the people", not you.

[Danny]

OK, next thought on the in-game mechanics and how they play out:

What would you do if you were a wolf and your villager roommate had a vote? Would you try to bury him, protect him, or ignore it?

My initial thought on this is that it is better to see your roommate voted off than you doing the dirty work, at least early in the game. Sure you have the 100% chance of getting your roommate with the night kill, but if he is voted off it was the "will of the people", not you.

I'd probably ignore it, less chance of slipping up in PM's and like you said, kills them off without having to do it via night kill. That said, gaining the trust of your roommate is not a bad idea either.

[Danny]

FWIW, it's not a large sample size, but I did not get a wolfy vibe from EF based on our PM's so far. Considering day 1 is also pretty random, I'd rather not lose my roommate this early, so when I do vote it won't be for EF.

[jeff061]

If you could protect without drawing suspicion I could see that, otherwise ignore it. Seems to me you'd want him to be alive just for a few days to see if you could get the PM ability to work in your favor.

[jeff061]

FWIW, it's not a large sample size, but I did not get a wolfy vibe from EF based on our PM's so far. Considering day 1 is also pretty random, I'd rather not lose my roommate this early, so when I do vote it won't be for EF.

Anyone get a wolfy vibe for anyone really? I'm not really going to argue for voting for EF beyond the piddly reason already stated. Certainly not going to feel like a mistake was made if anyone else is voted of instead.

Though I do enjoy reading Hoopsguys posts(i forgot about that :)). Please don't read into that statement.

[Telle]

Telle, I'm fine with leaving the vote counting to you if you are going to be around.

I can do it through most of the day, but I'll be taking off around 4:30 and won't be back until after deadline. So if you want to take what I have at that point and then continue on that'll be fine.

[hoopsguy]

Heh, thanks Jeff. The first couple of days I like trying to think a little outside the box. Particularly on D1, when none of us know anything anyway.

And, to answer your question, I do not get any big-time wolfy vibes on anyone yet. But I rarely trust my gut anyway ... it is wrong much more often than my logic when it comes to this group.

[jeff061]

I completely agree. The last time I played this I used well defined logic to pick out 4 wolves as a villager, three of which turned out correct. Everyone thought I was playing them and almost voted me out.

That was my last game :).

[Danny]

3 out 4, slacker

[jeheinz72]

Would you rather I random dot com it? It's day one, I need something to use to determine the vote so that makes as much sense as any.

Interesting, last game you tried using twisted logic to get the vote going towards me and I remember how that one ended.

In a way, I would. Since if you randomed it (assuming no lying on your part) then at least I could take solace in that.

But there are a couple things I didn't like about your post, truth be told.

Voting for the last poster seems counter-beneficial to the village under the assumption that posters -> discussion -> discussion is a village benefit.

Then you didn't vote that way, why, because it was hoops or Telle?

And then to vote for someone lynching your roomate, seems equally suspicious. I mean if we presume you're good here, then shouldn't your roomate have just as much of a chance of being a wolf as anyone else out there, including the person voting for them?


It just read Grade-A strange to me.

I don't know if you're a wolf or not, and my one holds the same Day-One-Lack-Of-Information weight it always does, but short of random.org'ing myself, you've given me the best line of thought as of where to go.

[jeheinz72]

What would you do if you were a wolf and your villager roommate had a vote? Would you try to bury him, protect him, or ignore it?



If I were a wolf, which I'm not, I'd rank my likely course of action as

#1 - Ignore. If I'm a wolf, I bloody don't care who gets lynched, so long as it's not me or a fellow wolf

#2 - Protect. Just to keep the slim chance that the PM's could work in my favor.

#3 - Bury. That would just be a seemingly bad idea. I don't tend to try and bury any one person in particular if I'm a wolf really ever and this case wouldn't really change that any.

Of course, with that said, I'm a villager here, and if someone votes for one of my roomates (I think someone just did actually), I'm equally likely to Ignore it. PM'ing is nice, but it can get a villager just as twisted up as ever (See Narcizo:Chess Game)

[jeff061]

I think I would be less likely to protect a roommate as a villager than as a wolf. Unless something in the PMs convinced me otherwise.

[jeheinz72]

Yeah, really, if I'm a villager, I'd need a DANG good reason to protect anyone.

[hoopsguy]

Heinz, I think I would go in the reverse order:
1. Bury - getting rid of a villager, without having to really get your hands dirty (lynch, not night kill), is a big win for the wolves
2. Protect - could potentially turn your roommate into a strong supporter later in the game as they recall the support you offered. And on the off chance that the roommate is the seer, bodyguard, or duke? High value there to be had
3. Ignore - passive action, generally not how I play. I understand the thought process that others have laid out, but think it represents an opportunity lost.


Looking at the votes so far, here is what I've seen along these lines:
1.) Eagle - supported Danny (this was what prompted me to ask the question)
2.) Heinz + RPI - ignored, no votes or comments on BKs vote for their roommate
3.) Danny - so far, leaning towards supporting his roommate Eaglesfan

Are there any that I've missed?

[hoopsguy]

I think I would be less likely to protect a roommate as a villager than as a wolf. Unless something in the PMs convinced me otherwise.

The only counter that I have on this is the ego saying, "I'm smart, I'll be able to figure out my roommate by virtue of our PMs. And if he is a villager, which is likely based on percentages, then I would prefer he is not wasted on a D1 lynch".

I definitely felt like that in the first game where I was allowed to swap PMs as a villager. Now? Hmm, maybe not as much but still a little bit.

[jeff061]

Really I think in a 1 to 1 conversation like PMs, which is not the best environment to read into because of the lack of information and variables, the only thing really I could be convinced of is if someone was saying they had a specific role. They'd of course have to back that up with in game actions.

Even then you'd have to watch yourself, as a wolf of course is going to have plenty of information to play with.

[EagleFan]

Here's my line of thinking, but if I am voted out for it than so be it. It's better to lose a vanilla villager than a roled one, though I would rather see us nab a wolf.

My past day one votes have been either:

- PB, used to be my constant day one vote (started for the heck of it and continued when I noticed that I was on the opposite side as him every game), obviously can't got this route and noticed others piling onto that in recent games so I am shying away from that one a bit as I don't want to be part of someone not wanting to play because they go out day one more often than they should
- random, though that gets people targetted day one
- self defense, unfortunately I have needed to use the self defense ploy way too much on day one lately

I was going to use the last poster idea, which I admitted in my post where I voted. Then I saw that someone had voted for my roommate and I figured in the spirit of the game I would vote for the person that voted for him. I don't know if you call it defending him as it only added another person into the party without putting someone in the lead.

I'll take one for the team if needed but would much rather live another day.

[Danny]

I don't think from a WW perspective he was defendng me. It would have made more sense to vote someone else who had a vote on them instead of a new person.

[jeheinz72]

I guess my overall thing is, if I'm a villager, I don't see all that much benefit to protecting my roomate. Maybe I'm looking at it a touch differently since i have two roomates here. But I think my tact would be the same.

I'm a villager. All I know for sure of is my villager-ness. Any other un-forced leaps of faith enter the possibility of a poor-decision into the mix.

Spirit of play I understand. But it's also easy to take an ill-willed intention and fit it into the spirit or story of the game at hand. That's old hat.

My vote stands, if others follow or leave, that's cool. But it's Day One, I've cast my lot and barring some huge revelation in another direction I'm not inclined to change it.

[Abe Sargent]

Heinz, I think I would go in the reverse order:
1. Bury - getting rid of a villager, without having to really get your hands dirty (lynch, not night kill), is a big win for the wolves
2. Protect - could potentially turn your roommate into a strong supporter later in the game as they recall the support you offered. And on the off chance that the roommate is the seer, bodyguard, or duke? High value there to be had
3. Ignore - passive action, generally not how I play. I understand the thought process that others have laid out, but think it represents an opportunity lost.


Looking at the votes so far, here is what I've seen along these lines:
1.) Eagle - supported Danny (this was what prompted me to ask the question)
2.) Heinz + RPI - ignored, no votes or comments on BKs vote for their roommate
3.) Danny - so far, leaning towards supporting his roommate Eaglesfan

Are there any that I've missed?

For me its:

1). Protect: making allies is my #1 strategy to success as a wolf. I don;t think path will ever forget when he was my brother and we pm'd each other back and forth, and although I was Lucifer, I still got him on my side against Gabriel. There is nothing better as a wolf then to have non-wolves aligned with you in the game.
2). Ignore: If I can get the villagers to do my work for me, taking someone down while I stand on the sidelines, then I will usually take that route. Not always, because I want to keep people guessing, and if a chance to make an ally presents itself, then so much the better, but I'm happy to let others do my work for me.
3). Bury: Sometimes I need to take someone down. I've pushed for Chief Rum once or twice as a wolf in the thread because he was getting too close to home, once I helped to get him lynched and once I failed. Otherwise, I stay clear of the heavy hand.


One of the things I like to do is do something irrational, and then say, "Well, if I were a wolf, instead I would have done X or Y" where those make a lot more sense than the random kill I just did, and then everyone nods their head in agreement and moves to someone else. In fact, I find that strategy best used live in mafia games, and less useful in online threads.

[Danny]

I guess my overall thing is, if I'm a villager, I don't see all that much benefit to protecting my roomate. Maybe I'm looking at it a touch differently since i have two roomates here. But I think my tact would be the same.

I'm a villager. All I know for sure of is my villager-ness. Any other un-forced leaps of faith enter the possibility of a poor-decision into the mix.

Spirit of play I understand. But it's also easy to take an ill-willed intention and fit it into the spirit or story of the game at hand. That's old hat.

My vote stands, if others follow or leave, that's cool. But it's Day One, I've cast my lot and barring some huge revelation in another direction I'm not inclined to change it.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but since it's day one and pretty much throwing a dart at the board, I'd rather keep my roommate around if I have no more suspicion of him than anyone else. If this was after day one and I felt there was some logical basis to go on, having someone be my roommate wouldn't matter at all.

[EagleFan]

I would think the best wolf move would be to either say nothing with their vote on day one OR attack someone who did offer an explanation. Now if there were only someone among us using one of these approaches...

[Abe Sargent]

Here's my line of thinking, but if I am voted out for it than so be it. It's better to lose a vanilla villager than a roled one, though I would rather see us nab a wolf.

My past day one votes have been either:

- PB, used to be my constant day one vote (started for the heck of it and continued when I noticed that I was on the opposite side as him every game), obviously can't got this route and noticed others piling onto that in recent games so I am shying away from that one a bit as I don't want to be part of someone not wanting to play because they go out day one more often than they should
- random, though that gets people targetted day one
- self defense, unfortunately I have needed to use the self defense ploy way too much on day one lately

I was going to use the last poster idea, which I admitted in my post where I voted. Then I saw that someone had voted for my roommate and I figured in the spirit of the game I would vote for the person that voted for him. I don't know if you call it defending him as it only added another person into the party without putting someone in the lead.

I'll take one for the team if needed but would much rather live another day.

Hey I'm not married to you or anything. If anyone jumps off you, I'm not bothered.

[The Jackal]

I think the roomate thing just throws a fun twist on the game, obviously the wolves have some interesting decisions to make on whom they target at night, because as soon as someone's roomate dies they're going to be looked at thoroughly.

Danny's reported vibes off EF make me a little more comfortable with what is in truth a self-preservation vote. Certainly willing to change as the day progresses.

VOTE EF

[EagleFan]

Hey I'm not married to you or anything. If anyone jumps off you, I'm not bothered.

At least I won't have to worry about nagging... :)

[jeheinz72]

I would think the best wolf move would be to either say nothing with their vote on day one OR attack someone who did offer an explanation. Now if there were only someone among us using one of these approaches...

No offense, but that is a 100% self-serving theory you've got there.

But that's fine, whatever man. People want to lynch me, that's ok. They're wrong and surely not going to gain from it, but thems the breaks I call 'em like I see 'em.

[jeheinz72]

I think the roomate thing just throws a fun twist on the game, obviously the wolves have some interesting decisions to make on whom they target at night, because as soon as someone's roomate dies they're going to be looked at thoroughly.



Taking that a step further, isn't it then in the wolves best interest to keep their roomie alive, for the sake of not garnering that attention?

[The Jackal]

Taking that a step further, isn't it then in the wolves best interest to keep their roomie alive, for the sake of not garnering that attention?

That will end up being an argument for anyone who's roomate dies, I'm sure. Question is how well we track wolf strategy for this one. The roomate (or roomates, for us) who's left alive after the night kills will either be drilled with questioning or passed over as "too obvious a candidate". Voting records should be huge a few days down the road.

[Danny]

Taking that a step further, isn't it then in the wolves best interest to keep their roomie alive, for the sake of not garnering that attention?

I actually agree with this and as a wolf it probably would be best to protect your roommate assuming the other candidate(s) are not wolves.

[Hannibal Lecter]

I hate my job!

[EagleFan]

No offense, but that is a 100% self-serving theory you've got there.

But that's fine, whatever man. People want to lynch me, that's ok. They're wrong and surely not going to gain from it, but thems the breaks I call 'em like I see 'em.

Funny, I was going to say the same to you.

[Danny]

That will end up being an argument for anyone who's roomate dies, I'm sure. Question is how well we track wolf strategy for this one. The roomate (or roomates, for us) who's left alive after the night kills will either be drilled with questioning or passed over as "too obvious a candidate". Voting records should be huge a few days down the road.

I agree, and I think we should be careful about putting too much weight into whether someone's roommate was killed, both in for vilifying and protecting someone.

At this point, it's most likely my roommate will be the one killed, so of course I would say that though :)

[jeheinz72]

Funny, I was going to say the same to you.

Oh definitely, on my latest comment taking Jackal's post a step further. Just trying to make a point.

Really though, whether you're good or bad, you need to learn how to take a vote better. I'd actually maybe waver if you didn't keep going back and forth with me. But now I'm sticking for sticking sake.

[EagleFan]

I hate my job!

Ditto, gotta go have fun explaining to the client that if they have out-dated data in their test environment that was never upgraded they cannot expect good results with the test. Not sure if I will be on later but I'll take this one for the team if needed.

Vanilla student, no role.

[EagleFan]

Oh definitely, on my latest comment taking Jackal's post a step further. Just trying to make a point.

Really though, whether you're good or bad, you need to learn how to take a vote better. I'd actually maybe waver if you didn't keep going back and forth with me. But now I'm sticking for sticking sake.

All I did was explain my vote. Not sure what else you want me to do. Oh well, gotta bolt for a while.

[Telle]

VOTE THE JACKAL

He's one of two people with two votes, and the first to throw a fourth vote on somebody.

[The Jackal]

What is the vote count, out of curiosity?

[Danny]

I think 4 for EF, 3 for you and 2 for Gramm

[Telle]

Votes as of post 147:

4 - EagleFan - jeheinz (79), Abe Sargent (86), jeff061 (109), The Jackal (135)
3 - The Jackel - Barkeep (49), Jonathan Ezarik (103), Telle (147)
2 - Grammaticus - RPI-Fan (51), Hannibal (98)
1 - Danny - Cheif Rum (46)
1 - Chief Rum - EagleFan (76)

[The Jackal]

Would you have preferred me to make it 3-3-2, Telle? At least EF has some questions around him, Gram seems a purely random target unless I missed something.

[Telle]

Would you have preferred me to make it 3-3-2, Telle? At least EF has some questions around him, Gram seems a purely random target unless I missed something.

You and Grammatica both had two, so I was going to go with one of you. You putting the fourth vote on EagleFan was just something to put you mildly ahead of him.

[Danny]

Gram is a random target. I have no problem with your vote personally, would seem logical whether a wolf or villager.

One question though, in your vote post you said my vibe from EF made you feel better about the EF vote. I posted my vibes were not wolfy to this point, not sure how that makes you more comfortable?

[jeheinz72]

Would you rather I random dot com it? It's day one, I need something to use to determine the vote so that makes as much sense as any.

Interesting, last game you tried using twisted logic to get the vote going towards me and I remember how that one ended.

All I did was explain my vote. Not sure what else you want me to do. Oh well, gotta bolt for a while.

Actually, explaining your vote is the one thing you really DIDN'T do.

Just sayin'.

[The Jackal]

Gram is a random target. I have no problem with your vote personally, would seem logical whether a wolf or villager.

One question though, in your vote post you said my vibe from EF made you feel better about the EF vote. I posted my vibes were not wolfy to this point, not sure how that makes you more comfortable?

Wow, I completely misread your post. Thanks for pointing that out - so now I'm no more comfortable with my vote on EF than I would be on anyone else. I'll leave it for now, but I'm watching.

[Danny]

I'm not comfortable voting for anyone at this point myself. I always waiver quite a bit on my day one votes.

[DaddyTorgo]

hmmm - stuff going on already on D1 - interesting

[DaddyTorgo]

got a few hours before i have to cast my vote, but i don't really see anything suspicious at this point (course i'm also tired - stayed up a bit too late again last night)

[Abe Sargent]

hmmm - stuff going on already on D1 - interesting

What dya expect? We're bored.

[Telle]

What dya expect? We're bored.

You have no idea. I'm stuck waiting on other people for all my tasks at work right now, so I get to sit here and twiddle my little thumbs all day. I'm bored out of my mind.

[jeheinz72]

I hear that.

[Abe Sargent]

Me too.

[Danny]

I'm enjoying my last week off before not getting a a break for a year by doing as little as possible. Being bored is nice for a change of pace.

[EagleFan]

Will a sad face work? :(

It at least looks like a sad day for the village to loase one of their own if things don't turn around soon.

I don't feel comfortable with this vote but it's in self defense at this point.


unvote CR

vote The Jackal

[Danny]

VOTE THE JACKAL
VOTE EAGLEFAN
VOTE NIGHTFALL

Quoted post back from page 1, Hoopsguy's mastermind plan is being orchestrated to perfection ;)

[Lathum]

4 - EagleFan - jeheinz (79), Abe Sargent (86), jeff061 (109), The Jackal (135)
4 - The Jackel - Barkeep (49), Jonathan Ezarik (103), Telle (147), EF (164)
2 - Grammaticus - RPI-Fan (51), Hannibal (98)
1 - Danny - Cheif Rum (46)


It's nice to see some real day 1 discussion!!

[Telle]

Yet to vote: DaddyTorgo, Hoopsguy, Danny, Grammaticus

[Telle]

So now the question is, do we prefer a 2-horse or a 3-horse race?

[Danny]

Does anyone know how much Gram is able to be on before the deadline?

[jeheinz72]

2-horse, though really, 1-horse.

[hoopsguy]

Quoted post back from page 1, Hoopsguy's mastermind plan is being orchestrated to perfection ;)

This is what people get when they root for the Eagles. I wish I could say that I feel sorry for them.

[DaddyTorgo]

idk how much gram is likely able to be on. we didn't PM about that.

eagle or jackel...eagle or jackel.

[hoopsguy]

2-horse, though really, 1-horse.

You would prefer to see a 1-horse race on D1?

Going to run a couple of numbers on the likelihood of having a wolf in the 2-horse and 3-horse scenarios.

#1 priority - get a wolf (duh). Easier to happen in a two-horse race, provided there is a wolf in the run-off.
#2 priority - have value out of D1 votes later in game.

15 players, assumption 3 wolves. Chance for any player to be a wolf = 20%.

1 horse race = 20% chance wolf is getting the votes

2 horse race = 0.8 (12/15) * 0.786 (11/14) = 63% chance that we have a pair of villagers against each other. 37% chance that we have a wolf in the mix, forcing wolves to either save/sacrifice one of their own.

3 horse race = 0.8 * 0.786 * 0.769 (10/13) = 48% chance that we have three villagers against each other. 52% chance that we have a wolf in the mix, forcing wolves to either save/sacrifice one of their own. Although pressure is likely not quite as great as it was in 2 horse race.


So, for me, the difference comes out of how much value you have in that 15% relative to the amount of pressure it puts on the wolves to make a move that reveals them later in game.

I would vote three horse race during a blind scenario like D1.

[Danny]

Three horse race sounds fine, I just would prefer it to be 3 players who will be on before deadline, especially in Gram's case where he could have a role. Considering he hasn't voted yet, I would think he will be on a bit.

[jeheinz72]

Sorry, I was being sarcastic about the whole 1-horse race thingy.

[Telle]

Well I'm out of here. The last posted vote count is correct as of post #175.

I won't be back before deadline.. and probably not until tomorrow.

[jeheinz72]

I still say 2-horse though.

15% more, yes, I get that, but you have to factor in that your relevant qualifier was just that "there is a wolf in the mix".

So ok, there is a 15% more chance a wolf is in the mix, but now there is less chance that the village will actually vote accurately that given day.

Plus for your #2 priority, to get values, if it's a 3-horse race than essentially 2 of the 3 have to die to get true value from any shifts. If it's a 2-horse race, then the ultimate value of those votes and moves is known throughout.

[hoopsguy]

Sorry, I was being sarcastic about the whole 1-horse race thingy.

No problem, just wasn't sure if you were getting that strong a vibe on EF. Like I alluded to earlier, I do not trust my gut all that much in these games (and I have tried to 'cultivate' it, without any real success) so I tend to fall back on logic/math more than a lot of players.

Your sarcastic comment actually forced me to run the numbers on a concept that I intuitively grasped, but had never qualified, so it is all good. Statistics - that is a class that college students take, right?

[hoopsguy]

I still say 2-horse though.

15% more, yes, I get that, but you have to factor in that your relevant qualifier was just that "there is a wolf in the mix".

So ok, there is a 15% more chance a wolf is in the mix, but now there is less chance that the village will actually vote accurately that given day.

Plus for your #2 priority, to get values, if it's a 3-horse race than essentially 2 of the 3 have to die to get true value from any shifts. If it's a 2-horse race, then the ultimate value of those votes and moves is known throughout.

Yep, this is where intelligent people can disagree. I had not considered the immediacy aspect of the voting records, and it is a good point.

[DaddyTorgo]

4 - EagleFan - jeheinz (79), Abe Sargent (86), jeff061 (109), The Jackal (135)
4 - The Jackel - Barkeep (49), Jonathan Ezarik (103), Telle (147), EF (164)
2 - Grammaticus - RPI-Fan (51), Hannibal (98)
1 - Danny - Cheif Rum (46)

Yet to vote: DaddyTorgo, Hoopsguy, Danny, Grammaticus

[hoopsguy]

idk how much gram is likely able to be on. we didn't PM about that.

eagle or jackel...eagle or jackel.

I assume you are disregarding Gramm because he is your roommate and you can PM with him? If not, what is the reason that you are only looking at Eagle or Jackal?

I'm pretty tempted to throw a vote on Gramm to make it a three horse race. But I'm kind of reluctant to do that to a guy who hasn't been around the thread much, especially when I'm not going to be around near deadline to move it. The two leaders, for better or worse, have had a chance to talk in the thread already.

[Danny]

Vote Grammaticus

I'll go along with your thought process for now Hoops, and I will be around to change it if necessary.

[DaddyTorgo]

that's exactly why i'm discounting Gram hoops. But if the village felt he was the best candidate i'd go with it - somebody's got to lose a roommate.

[Danny]

that's exactly why i'm discounting Gram hoops. But if the village felt he was the best candidate i'd go with it - somebody's got to lose a roommate.

I'm hoping he comes online, but either way I'll be here to change my vote because if necessary.

[Lathum]

4 - EagleFan - jeheinz (79), Abe Sargent (86), jeff061 (109), The Jackal (135)
4 - The Jackel - Barkeep (49), Jonathan Ezarik (103), Telle (147), EF (164)
3 - Grammaticus - RPI-Fan (51), Hannibal (98), Danny (182)
1 - Danny - Cheif Rum (46)

Yet to vote: DaddyTorgo, Hoopsguy, Grammaticus

[jeff061]

Maybe I'm an idiot. But I don't see the point of the multihorse race discussion. At the end of the day only one is getting lynched with a 20% probability of being a wolf.

Providing a voting record for the future is a definite plus, but not if these races are being manufactured. That just creates a defense later on and makes it more difficult to lean on alternative motives.

[jeff061]

Almost edited. Ooops ;).

I cause if you can spawn a lot of flip flopping in a close race that could mean something, but I'd think that would be a pretty rookie mistake unless their backs are against the wall.

[Danny]

Maybe I'm an idiot. But I don't see the point of the multihorse race discussion. At the end of the day only one is getting lynched with a 20% probability of being a wolf.

Providing a voting record for the future is a definite plus, but not if these races are being manufactured. That just creates a defense later on and makes it more difficult to lean on alternative motives.

It has merit. Let's say both EF and Jackal are villagers and Gram does happen to be a wolf and gets lynched later on. Seeing who put the votes on him that put him at risk could help somewhat clear people. There's lots of cases where voting records from early on can help find wolves later.

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE EAGLEFAN

It's extremely doubtful I will be on before deadline - possible but not very likely.

[jeff061]

Right, but that value goes down if everyone is spreading the vote around for that very reason. Wolves can coordinate and spread the vote around, assuming they didn't vote right away(another data set to analyze).

[hoopsguy]

OK, so votes look like:
5 - Eagle
4 - Jackal
3 - Gramm

Gramm and I are only votes left, so assuming no movement (big if) a vote for Gramm is a wasted vote. Guess I'll pick between the other two.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, what happens in the event of a tie? I do not see anything in the rules that discusses this potential outcome.

[Danny]

It's a no lynch, listed in the rules as the second part of another rule

[Danny]

Unvote Grammaticus
Vote The Jackal

Since Hoops won't be following and Gram won't either this is down to a two man race. I'll see where Hoopsguy and Gram put there vote, I will switch if necessary to avoid a tie.

[Abe Sargent]

I haven't played in a while, so woho all is in the game who hasn't played in a while besides JE?

[hoopsguy]

See it now. Thanks.

VOTE EAGLEFAN

[hoopsguy]

I haven't played in a while, so woho all is in the game who hasn't played in a while besides JE?

Jeff, Gramm, and RPI are the guys that immediately come to mind.

[Abe Sargent]

Well then I don;t want any of the old crowd getting voted of day one. Sucks to come back after a hiatus only to die in one day.

[Barkeep49]

I am a fan of 2 people, since I think it boxes the wolves in more, if there's a wolf in play. If there's a wolf in play with 3 people, I think the wolves have far more freedom of movement in their actions. I like boxing the wolves in.

As for the roommate discussion, I think roommates are irrelevant until we have a pair of them cleared. I would love to be able ot talk nuts and bolts with CR, as there is no villager who is more astute and I'd love to get up to his level of play. But since he might just as easily be a wolf...

This philosophy comes care of the Marvel game where my PM partner who I trusted had been cleared, except he hadn't been cleared and was a bad guy.

[hoopsguy]

Well then I don;t want any of the old crowd getting voted of day one. Sucks to come back after a hiatus only to die in one day.

Feels the same way. FWIW, D1 is the only time I let meta-game stuff like that creep into my logic. But giving a one-day "welcome back" pass seems like a polite thing to do.

[hoopsguy]

6 - EagleFan - jeheinz (79), Abe Sargent (86), jeff061 (109), The Jackal (135), DT (189), Hoops (196)
5 - The Jackel - Barkeep (49), Jonathan Ezarik (103), Telle (147), EF (164), Danny (194)
2 - Grammaticus - RPI-Fan (51), Hannibal (98)
1 - Danny - Chief Rum (46)

Yet to vote: Grammaticus

[hoopsguy]

I'm guessing Chief Rum is not going to be changing his vote. I'm hoping that RPI and Hannibal at least consider doing so between now and the deadline given the lack of support for their candidate.

I may be out until deadline at this point.

[Barkeep49]

I can say that CR will not be back before deadline based on his PM to me.

[Barkeep49]

Feels the same way. FWIW, D1 is the only time I let meta-game stuff like that creep into my logic. But giving a one-day "welcome back" pass seems like a polite thing to do.
I agree that on D1 I try to avoid voting for someone who is returning to the game after an absence.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I see. So come tomorrow should I expect the "let's all pile on Jonathan" game? Bring it, suckas!!!

:D

[RPI-Fan]

--I will be around until the deadline and ready to potentially change my vote... in other words, purposefully abstaining at the moment--

[Barkeep49]

--I will be around until the deadline and ready to potentially change my vote... in other words, purposefully abstaining at the moment--
Why bring that pressure on yourself by potentially being the lynching vote on a villager?

[Hannibal Lecter]

I'm guessing Chief Rum is not going to be changing his vote. I'm hoping that RPI and Hannibal at least consider doing so between now and the deadline given the lack of support for their candidate.

I may be out until deadline at this point.


i see no reasont o change... its not like there is any evidence....

[Barkeep49]

i see no reasont o change... its not like there is any evidence....
This is my philosophy on such matters.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

i see no reasont o change... its not like there is any evidence....

Will you consider switching your vote if needed to break a tie?

[EagleFan]

Lynch me if you may but then what I see I can no longer say.

[Danny]

Is that a reveal?

[EagleFan]

A forced into the corner one. I was hoping to not draw any attention but that is not happening now. I am probably dead tonight anyway if I'm not lynched now that I said it.

[jeff061]

Ugh.

Of course if he's lying the seer can't very well refute it or he's dead.

[jeff061]

Actually would have been better off saying nothing as the seer and pray for miracle, really. Right?

[EagleFan]

Actually would have been better off saying nothing as the seer and pray for miracle, really. Right?

Probably right at this point but it would have taken a miracle with many saying they can't be on for the deadline.

Actually it probably didn't matter much anyway based on the one other time I was the seer. ;) The wolves happened to attack and kill my scan target each night rendering my scans useless.

[jeff061]

Eh whatever, if you are a wolf I may be dead for these quick comments :D.

I am not a seer people, just streaming thoughts out there. Would really suck if Eagle was, but this does kind of seem like an attempt to get the seer to unmask himself.

If not... :(

[Danny]

I tend to believe the reveal, but if there is a seer out there, absolutely don't say anything.

[EagleFan]

Eh whatever, if you are a wolf I may be dead for these quick comments :D.

I am not a seer people, just streaming thoughts out there. Would really suck if Eagle was, but this does kind of seem like an attempt to get the seer to unmask himself.

If not... :(

The seer did unmask himself, me. No sense in beating around the bush at this point. Here I am wolves, come and get me.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Will you consider switching your vote if needed to break a tie?

yes

[EagleFan]

Sadly I don't think Jackal is the way to go today either, maybe it was his go Eagles comment... ;)

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Eh whatever, if you are a wolf I may be dead for these quick comments :D.

I am not a seer people, just streaming thoughts out there. Would really suck if Eagle was, but this does kind of seem like an attempt to get the seer to unmask himself.

If not... :(

My thoughts as well, but it also seems like a rather hasty attempt by a wolf to try to out the seer. Yes, EF is in danger of getting lynched, but we still haven't heard from Gramm and as it stands right now, only one person has to switch from EF to Jackal to change the results.

If I'm a wolf pulling a fake seer reveal, why do it now? There's no way the real seer is going to out him/herself this early.

If I'm the seer, why reveal this now? With 30 minutes to go before deadline there's still a lot of time for votes to be switched around without having to out yourself.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Sadly I don't think Jackal is the way to go today either, maybe it was his go Eagles comment... ;)

What other option do you suggest, then?

[jeff061]

My thoughts as well, but it also seems like a rather hasty attempt by a wolf to try to out the seer. Yes, EF is in danger of getting lynched, but we still haven't heard from Gramm and as it stands right now, only one person has to switch from EF to Jackal to change the results.

If I'm a wolf pulling a fake seer reveal, why do it now? There's no way the real seer is going to out him/herself this early.

If I'm the seer, why reveal this now? With 30 minutes to go before deadline there's still a lot of time for votes to be switched around without having to out yourself.

I agree. I see it more likely a Wolf making this play than the seer. The wolf at least has something to gain.

And now if we don't lynch Eagle, and the wolves let him go, all day tomorrow the discussion is going to be whether or not Eagle is the seer. W

It's a really tough spot.

[Danny]

The thing I don't like about the reveal is that there is a a a pretty good chance the BG won't be online to send in a protection for you, so it might have been better to not say anything.

[EagleFan]

What other option do you suggest, then?

I really don't have a suggestion, it hasn't been past nightfall yet to give me any ideas.

Why reveal? Everyone on me seems rock solid and many can't even be here for the deadline.

[EagleFan]

I don't understand this why reveal logic? I am about to be lynched so saying nothing causes the village to lose the role. Saying something at least gives us some kind of chance. Look closely at the votes on me at least, that should tell you something when you see that I am not fake revealing.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

And now if we don't lynch Eagle, and the wolves let him go, all day tomorrow the discussion is going to be whether or not Eagle is the seer. W

It's a really tough spot.

I really hope the wolves put us in that spot. It might sow confusion, but if he really is the seer it will at least give us one or two scans that can be confirmed after his death.

[Hannibal Lecter]

yeah, i buy it.

unvote gramticus
vote jackyl

[Hannibal Lecter]

I hate no lynch, but were screwed if we lose the seer, if hes a live in 2 days hes a wolf... so what the hell!

[jeff061]

Look closely at the votes on me at least, that should tell you something when you see that I am not fake revealing.

It really doesn't tell us anything though. I'm not even trying to defend myself, that's fact.

And the only way your reveal helps us is if the BG protects you tonight. I had forgotten about that role during my earlier posts.

[Danny]

The wolves would be stupid not to kill EF if he survives the lynch. Whatever they could gain would not be worth giving him the opportunity to catch a wolf.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I don't understand this why reveal logic? I am about to be lynched so saying nothing causes the village to lose the role. Saying something at least gives us some kind of chance. Look closely at the votes on me at least, that should tell you something when you see that I am not fake revealing.

My problem is the timing of the reveal. There was almost an hour until deadline when you made the "reveal". Why not wait a little bit longer and see what Gramm did. If he forced a tie, then RPI and Hannibal would have been on the block to break the tie. By waiting, you could have prevented the need for the reveal.

[Hannibal Lecter]

no reason to break the tie.... if hes alive in 2 days hes a wolf.... so whatever.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

We're sitting on six votes for both EagleFan and the Jackal right now, correct? With about five minutes until deadline.

[EagleFan]

I'm out, not sure what is going to happen but my wife's car is stuck. Will be back to see what happened.

[Danny]

Gram still has his vote, I'm assuming he will be breaking the tie.

[Danny]

Or maybe not, he left the thread

[Danny]

Deadline

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Great. No lynch. :(

[jeff061]

So, having been awhile. What is the general perception of ties.

I know this page will certainly be looked at carefully as events unfold, but we don't get anything out of it at least in the short term.

[Danny]

No lynch sucks, but it's wasn't worth the risk of lynching EF, if he is lying, we will find out. Should have lynched The Jackal at least to get something out of the votes.

[Danny]

So, having been awhile. What is the general perception of ties.

I know this page will certainly be looked at carefully as events unfold, but we don't get anything out of it at least in the short term.

Generally bad and people who caused the tie or failed to break it are not seen in a good light. Hannibal caused the tie, but myself, Jonathan and you were all here to potentially break it. I just didn't feel it was worth the risk of possibly killing the seer and I figured Gram would have made a vote for someone. I think in all of this, Gram might come out looking the worst for not breaking that tie or at least doing something.

[Hannibal Lecter]

no lynches as a genrel rule suck, but we win in this case by not lynching EF
woulda been nice to lycnh jackyl.... but oh well... now at least we learn something is EF dies or not, unless the BG doesnt show up for a night action... then we are messed up!

[Danny]

no lynches as a genrel rule suck, but we win in this case by not lynching EF
woulda been nice to lycnh jackyl.... but oh well... now at least we learn something is EF dies or not, unless the BG doesnt show up for a night action... then we are messed up!

It's a 24 hour clock, so night actions were due at deadline?

[Hannibal Lecter]

that being said.... itsup to the wolves now to decide to attack and hope hesnot protected or not attack someone else and hope they can get him tommmorow (unless hes a wolf!)

[Hannibal Lecter]

but this way we learn SOMETHING no matter what!

[Danny]

Only about a third of us were online to see his reveal, chances are good unfortunately that EF won't be protected.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

In the past I've been in favor of no lynches, but those are usually during inactive Day Ones. I think there's been enough action today to validate a day one lynching, and I feel like we really missed out today.

I'm going to be really surprised if EagleFan is killed tonight. I don't think the wolves are going to go after him. If he is the seer, he has a couple of nights of freedom.

So what does this mean to us? If EF lives and we get a scan, we're going to have to take it with a grain of salt. And of course, he could continue his bad luck of "scanning" the person the wolves kill. Either way, we can't fully trust EF until he is dead. This, of course, puts us at possibly a huge disadvantage, depending on how the wolves play this out.

And now we go into Day Two with almost as much information we had coming in today (i.e. almost none). Unless we catch a wolf tonight, then ignore everything I typed.

[hoopsguy]

Crap, was coming back to say that I thought I had the wrong side on this one.

On the car ride home I was worrying about the three roommate block, coupled with the innate desire people have shown to at least somewhat support their roommates.
- chances are better that there is a wolf in the three person group than any two person group
- the voting influence of the three person group, coupled with any "wolf backing" grows as we lose villagers to lynch/night kills

So I was going to change the vote over to Jackal. I knew there was an early deadline, but was hoping that I would be able to make it home in time to make the switch. I'm especially bummed about this after seeing a tie and the reveal.