WW XCV: Land of the Role Reveals GAME OVER

[Barkeep49]

Sign-ups are now going on. They will go on through Tuesday with the goal of having a first deadline of Wednesday night. The idea is to have at least 12 players. I will likely cap this game at some point due to balance reasons. We're going to say 16 for now, but will attempt to rebalance to allow all who want to play to play. I am still refining the rules and will post if I make changes to them between now and the start of the game.

Sign-ups
1. DaddyTorgo Lynched Day 1
2. Schmidty
3. PurdueBrad
4. Hoopsguy
5. dubb
6. Danny
7. USFLTecmo
8. EagleFan Killed Night 1
9. Chief Rum Killed Night 3
10. Lerriuqs Lynched Day 3
11. Tyrith
12. ntn Killed Night 3
13. Martin Lynched Day 2
14. Lathum
15. Telle
16. Racer
17. saldana

Alternate:
RendeR

[Barkeep49]

Introduction

I made a decision. That decision is that there simply isn’t enough fake revealing going on in WW these days. So I decided to create a game where players will be encouraged to reveal.

Here’s how it will work. Below there is a list of roles. Some roles will be in the game, some roles will not be in the game. At any time a player may claim to be a certain role. Perhaps they’re really that role, perhaps not. If that player becomes believed they gain a set of powers. In other words there could be two seers in the game. Of course one of them might be a wolf.

So is anything else different from normal WW?

No. It's a pretty normal game. Wolves win if they have a 1:1 or greater ratio with the villagers. The villagers win if there are no wolves left. Wolves can chat amongst themselves, villagers can't. Wolves designate one wolf each night to kill a villager.

What are deadlines
We're going to run on a normal Night Day Cycle. Deadlines will be 10 PM Eastern and 7 AM Central, Monday through Friday. The Friday night deadline will extend to Noon Saturday. The next day will then begin and last through 10 PM Monday.

How does voting work?
If you want to vote for someone simply post in bold and blue your vote e.g.: Vote barkeep. You can unvote a person (done the same way as voting, but with the word unvote) and vote a different person. You may not vote for yourself.

The person with the most votes will be lynched.

Is there a no lynch option?
Only if no one votes during that day. There are some other situations, listed in the rules, where no lynch will occur.

What about with a tie?
The Duke breaks the tie. If the Duke is not able to break the tie, it will be the person who received the last vote that day.

Ok so sounds pretty normal so far. How does this believing thing work?
Players may at any time claim a role. Players can just simply say "I'm such and such". After a player has claimed a role, people may choose to believe them. People may believe up to two people a day by posting in bold and blue e.g.: Believe Barkeep as Vanilla Villager. If on any day at least 40% of people believe a person they become believed. During the day you may also disbelieve players (done the same way as believing, but with the word disbelieve). Only one person may be believed each day. If more than one person gets above 40% of the players to believe them the player with the greatest percentage of votes will be believed. If there is a tie no player will be believed.

Only one person may be believed for a role at a time. Once believed a person can't be believed for any other role, UNLESS it was not that player's starting role and the actual person with the role dies. If that happens, the player who was believed falsely loses their powers. If a player is believed for a role that is not their own they will keep their starting powers, unless otherwise specified.

Once the person with a particular role dies that role may no longer be claimed.

If a player is believed for a role on the opposite side do they join that side?
No. They still are on whichever side their starting role was on, except as noted in the rules.

Anything else?
The wolves will either know one villager role not present in the game or that all villager roles are present in the game.

It should be noted the game can be played out as a perfectly normal, vanilla, game of Werewolf.

Roles
Seer
Starting: The player may choose one person a night to scan. The player will learn if that person is a wolf or villager (except in the case of the cunning wolf).
If Believed: Will also gain the starting seer abilities, if they don't already have them. Will learn that the cunning wolf is a wolf if that person is scanned. May also once scan a believed person and learn their actual role.

False Seer
Starting: Will think they are the seer. If they scan the actual seer, it will show that person as a villager. For all other players, including the cunning wolf, there is a % chance that the person will show up as a wolf. That percentage will match the number of wolves left in the game (i.e. if there are 4 wolves left out of 10 players, there is a 40% chance a scanned player will show-up as a wolf). If this person becomes the believed seer, they will gain the powers of a believed seer, except the cunning wolf will show up as a villager, and all future scans will be accurate (except in the case of the cunning wolf), even if the actual seer dies. This role may not be claimed.

Bodyguard
Starting: May choose a person each night to protect from a wolf kill. May protect the same person only once in a three night period. Does not learn if their guarding is successful or not.
If Believed: Will also gain the starting bodyguard abilities, if they don't already have them. Will learn if they successfully guarded a person. May protect the same person two nights in a row, one time, except himself.

Duke
Starting: Breaks ties.
If Believed: Will gain the ability to change the result of the lynch one time. They may either cause a person to be lynched or cause a no-lynch.

Maniac
Starting: Once per game may kill a believed player.
If Believed: Once per game may kill any player (stacks with starting ability).

Cultist
Starting: Will know the identity of 1 starting wolf. Counts as a villager, but wins if he is alive when the wolves win. If attacked by the wolves, he will become converted and become a Vanilla Wolf (this power is lost if the Cultist is believed)
If Believed: Will have two options. If the actual cultist is believed, will PM the GM and either gain knowledge of all remaining wolves and stay the cultist or may choose to renounce the role of cultist and become a Vanilla Villager. If it is not the actual cultist who is believed will gain the knowledge of 1 wolf and have the option of gaining the other starting cultist powers (including winning with the wolves) or not.

Tough Villager
Starting: If the bodyguard is still alive, the first time the Tough Villager is attacked, that player will automatically be protected by the bodyguard. If attacked a second time, the Tough Villager will die.
If Believed: The first time this player finishes with the most votes, must have at least 50% of the remaining players' votes, otherwise there will be no lynch. After the first time, this player is lynched normally.

Vanilla Villager:
Starting: As a starting role, has no special powers or abilities.
If Believed: They will permanently lose any other powers they have, though a wolf may still communicate with the other wolves, but they may not be voted out for 3 days.


Brutal Wolf
Starting: When lynched may choose a player to kill. If no name has been given to the GM, a random villager will be killed.
If Believed: When lynched, will randomly kill a roled player on the opposite team (all wolves are presumed to be roled). If there are no villagers with roles left, two villagers will randomly be chosen to die. If the starting Brutal Wolf is believed they lose their starting power.

Vengeful Wolf
Starting: If doing the nightly kill, will kill an unbelieved bodyguard, will be able to avoid a believed bodyguard's block, and be able to kill a Believed Vengeful Wolf.
If Believed: The first time a player on the opposite team attempts to kill them, including by duking, that player will die instead. May still be lynched normally.

Cunning Wolf
Starting: Will only be revealed to any villagers (except the cultist) as a wolf when this wolf dies. This role may not be claimed.

Tough Wolf
Starting: Normal wolf powers, except if performing the night attack the bodyguard will never learn if a block is successful.
If Believed: The first time the Tough Wolf is lynched or killed the Tough Wolf will survive. If lynched or killed a second time, the Tough Wolf will die.

Vanilla Wolf:
Starting: Normal wolf powers.
If Believed: May chat with the actual cultist. The cultist will decide if this will be done directly or indirectly (through the GM).


Mystery Role: There may be up to two non-listed roles in the game and these roles may be on either side. The powers of that role will be known to that person. Just like listed roles, these roles will have starting and believed powers. It might be a previously used role (witness, lovers, etc) or a role new to this game.

[Barkeep49]

Reserved

[hoopsguy]

If that player becomes believed one of two things happens. If they actually have that role, they gain some sort of bonus ability, in addition to their starting powers.

Is this bonus ability unknown? Or did I just miss it in the rules?

[Barkeep49]

Is this bonus ability unknown? Or did I just miss it in the rules?
That's a remnant from a previous rendering of the rules. There is only starting and believed powers now. Man I wish one of the people I showed these rules to had point that out :)

[DaddyTorgo]

bawhaha

[Schmidty]

Schmidty in please.

[PurdueBrad]

I am PB...

...and I am in.

[hoopsguy]

That's a remnant from a previous rendering of the rules. There is only starting and believed powers now. Man I wish one of the people I showed these rules to had point that out :)

Was that in the earlier version? Man, those guys really should have caught it if it was :)

[hoopsguy]

Pretty sure I'm in - put me down for now, will update if work schedule gets too messy for next week.

[DaddyTorgo]

I am PB...

...and I am in.

DISBELIEVE

[dubb93]

In

[hoopsguy]

Blue font is unattractive on the dark green skin.

[Danny]

You can put me in. What's the start date?

[USFLTecmo]

In!

[Barkeep49]

You can put me in. What's the start date?
Wednesday or Thursday. Probably Wednesday.

[The Jackal]

I'm going to be busy Wed-Fri so I'm going to hold off signing up for this one, if it's needing more people I can probably make time.

[Danny]

Wednesday or Thursday. Probably Wednesday.

Ok, then I am in, since I come back from out of town Tuesday evening.

[EagleFan]

In please.

[Abe Sargent]

In

[Chief Rum]

In

[lerriuqs]

http://www.thecheezburgerfactory.com//completestore/128341124703281250Awlin.jpg

[Tyrith]

In.

[ntndeacon]

inn

[MartinD]

I would like to play.

[Lathum]

yes please

[dubb93]

So say I am the seer and I choose to portray being the maniac, if the village believes my maniac reveal does that mean I am now the seer AND I get a one time night kill?

[Telle]

I'll play.

[RendeR]

This could be intriguing, it could also be insanely annoying, sounds like my cup o' joe. (that would make sense if I drank coffee....)



IN

[claphamsa]

wish i could. :( im on vacation and wont be back till may 30 :)

[Schmidty]

wish i could. :( im on vacation and wont be back till may 30 :)

Wait.

You're sad that you're on vacation because you can't play WW?

Man, this games messes with people's heads. ;)

[Abe Sargent]

Sorry, forgot I have vacation first week in June. Have to pull out.

[Thomkal]

I predict massive excedrin headaches from this game. Have fun. :)

[claphamsa]

Wait.

You're sad that you're on vacation because you can't play WW?

Man, this games messes with people's heads. ;)

im always sad i cant play! ijust wish it would stop raining :P and i burned my scalp :(

[Barkeep49]

So say I am the seer and I choose to portray being the maniac, if the village believes my maniac reveal does that mean I am now the seer AND I get a one time night kill?
Yes.

[DaddyTorgo]

http://www.thecheezburgerfactory.com//completestore/128341124703281250Awlin.jpg

AWESOME!!

[dubb93]

Any change in the number of players? Wednesday night still the plan for the first deadline?

[Barkeep49]

Any change in the number of players? Wednesday night still the plan for the first deadline?
For sure to Wednesday. We'll probably be going with 16 (hoops has offered his spot to RendeR)

[RendeR]

Actually BK, let Hoops play. I start tennis tihs week and I have other things going on as well and don't want to miss out on the game. So I'll back out.


Looks like fun and I will read through and enjoy all the activities. just too much on my plate over the next couple weeks.

[hoopsguy]

RendeR, will do. I just knew that my schedule was busy at the outset of this week and that I would certainly be available as an alternate if needed later. But if you are busy I'll play along but be a little more quiet early on than normal.

[dubb93]

Is it too early to reveal as the GM?

[PurdueBrad]

Is it too early to reveal as the GM?

believe :D

[Barkeep49]

Is it too early to reveal as the GM?
You shouldn't believe dubb. I'm really the GM. See how in the second post, the one with the rules, it was posted by me? Yeah that's why you should believe me.

[EagleFan]

Can I believe PB is a wolf yet? ;)

[EagleFan]

You shouldn't believe dubb. I'm really the GM. See how in the second post, the one with the rules, it was posted by me? Yeah that's why you should believe me.

We're not falling for your trickery!!!

[Barkeep49]

On a more serious note I plan on doing final balance tweaks at lunch, and sending out roles this afternoon.

[hoopsguy]

EF, if I'm a wolf then I'll definitely believe you on that one.

[PurdueBrad]

Can I believe PB is a wolf yet? ;)

Bring on your day 1 vote. And bring on the Stanley Cup! Your quotation in my sig has been gold thus far.

[PurdueBrad]

You shouldn't believe dubb. I'm really the GM. See how in the second post, the one with the rules, it was posted by me? Yeah that's why you should believe me.

That's just what you want us to believe. Next thing I know, this afternoon I'll have a PM in my in-box from you with my supposed "role". That's just how you would fake it if you weren't the real GM. We know you.

[PurdueBrad]

And if Dubbs attempted coup doesn't work, let me try this. BK is the GM, I know, because I am Barkeep49. You can tell because I posted the 1'st, 2'nd, 3'rd, 5'th, 16'th, 35'th, 38'th, 43'rd, and 46'th posts. In fact, I'll probably even post again soon as Barkeep49.

[Barkeep49]

Ok rules are finalized. Please note that I added info about no lynches, ties, and made substantial changes to the role of Cultist and Tough Villager. There were some other minor tweaks made as well.

[Barkeep49]

Also I have a possible lead on an 18th player, which I think will work for balance purposes.

[Racer]

If you need an 18th player, I'll play. I saw that you already had 16 so I didn't sign up earlier. I'm up for about 1 or 2 werewolf games a year.

[saldana]

according to post 1, render is 17th..if you still need an 18th, i'll be your huckleberry

[Barkeep49]

Hey thanks Racer and saldana! We'll definitely go with 18. I'm waiting to hear back from the person I had asked, but with some combination of him, Racer, saldana, Hoops, and RendeR, we'll go with 18.

[hoopsguy]

Sounds good - just let me know if you want me as a reserve to start. I'm happy to give up a spot for someone who is not in the rotation as much, especially since the next couple of days are really lousy for me (in terms of work).

[ntndeacon]

Believe Barkeep as a vanilla Villager

Now he has lost all his GM powers!

[Barkeep49]

This actually gives me a chance to point out that I have not claimed to be a vanilla villager so you can't believe me for it. There can be no invountarily believings.

[lerriuqs]

I be a vanilla villager.

Ok, now everyone believe away...:cool:

Believe Barkeep as a vanilla Villager

[dubb93]

I demand people believe I am the GM. Seriously, I'll be PMing Barkeep the roles as soon as I get a chance to roll them. He will then send them out.

[saldana]

I demand people believe I am the GM. Seriously, I'll be PMing Barkeep the roles as soon as I get a chance to roll them. He will then send them out.

i demand you die on day 1

believe dubb should die on day 1

[Barkeep49]

Sending out roles now. Please don't post until I post the opening announcement.

[Barkeep49]

It’s the annual Honesty Conference held by your favorite group, the Very Intelligent Lovely Loquacious Accurate Genuine Edified Ring. You can, truthfully, be described as ecstatic, to be there. For the next few days it should be a breath of fresh air to be around people who can be counted on for honesty. Sure the truth hurts, but that’s a small price to pay for being straightforward.

The conference gets off to a rousing start with your keynote speech by the Dali Lama. This is followed by a new documentary on Abe Lincoln. Everything is going well until the end of the Lincoln documentary when the following message flashes up on the screen:


You want the truth? You can’t handle the truth. We’re going to make life miserable for you. One by one we’re going to make you leave until we run this place.

Yours Truly,
The We Only Lie Vilify and Evade Society

Who are these W.O.L.V.E.S. and what are they doing at your conference? Sure it was nice of them to give such an honest closing, but never-the-less they must be rooted out. They must be stopped. And you’re just the honest sort of people to do it.

Game is on. The first deadline is Wednesday 10 PM Eastern

[EagleFan]

Sweet!!! I am the brutal wolf!!! (or am I?)

[EagleFan]

:D

[EagleFan]

Just how honest am I supposed to be?

[EagleFan]

Wow, I'm in a game full of UTR players...

This is gonna be tough...

;)

[USFLTecmo]

Yay playing again!

Boo crappy regular villager role. :(

[Tyrith]

Hi. I'm a vanilla villager.

[Barkeep49]

I accidentally listed Danny twice in the sign-ups. We will thus be playing with 17 players.

[lerriuqs]

I'm the cultist.

[Telle]

Vanilla villager checking in.

[dubb93]

I'm the cultist.

So basically one of two things. Either:

1. You really are the cultist and you want to know all the wolves

or

2. You are a villager that would like to help the wolves.

If I am reading this right I am having a hard time figuring out why in the hell I would want to believe you(the game mechanic) even if you really are the cultist. I think this is one of the few roles where no village good can come by claiming it.

[lerriuqs]

Or...

Are a villager to help the village - you find out a wolf role. And do not have to win with the wolves.

[Tyrith]

In that case, can you not just tell us?

[USFLTecmo]

The flip side is that he can also use his powers (if believed) to either transfer over to our side, or out a wolf, if he isn't the cultist. Thank you lerriuqs for giving us an interesting first day.

The worst that happens is that he knows ALL the wolves, but then if he ends up there, we may just knock him off at that point so he can't do any damage.

[USFLTecmo]

In that case, can you not just tell us?

Wouldn't be a wise move for him to spit out a wolf right now, until he's believed, because then he may never be believed, still be on the wolves's side, and hurt his own cause. If he's believed and converts, then he'll tell us what he has, I'm sure. If he doesn't, then we off him, so he can't screw us over with his vote the rest of the game.

[Telle]

But we won't know which way he chooses, right? So how could we know whether to trust him or not?

[lerriuqs]

In that case, can you not just tell us?

Or...

Are a villager to help the village - you find out a wolf role. And do not have to win with the wolves.

But we won't know which way he chooses, right? So how could we know whether to trust him or not?

Honestly? Even if I give up a wolf name tomorrow, you won't know for sure.

[USFLTecmo]

Point taken. I'm not sure how that mechanic works out. BK, do we get told if he changes sides?

[Barkeep49]

Point taken. I'm not sure how that mechanic works out. BK, do we get told if he changes sides?
No

[dubb93]

Hmmmmm...squirrel is playing a risky game. I'm the duke btw.

[Telle]

OR he chooses the wolf side, gives us the name of a wolf, gets wolf killed overnight which gets turned into a conversion, and is suddenly the most trusted person in the game while being a wolf.

[USFLTecmo]

No

Then I think we're safer not to trust him in any way. He can't harm us much if we know who he is. Problem is, he may not be the cultist at all, but just trying to pick up his skills.

I sense this game will turn into a headache sooner rather than later.

[lerriuqs]

OR he chooses the wolf side, gives us the name of a wolf, gets wolf killed overnight which gets turned into a conversion, and is suddenly the most trusted person in the game while being a wolf.

Then the seer scans me tomorrow night. That's easy enough to deal with.

Barkeep - a question - If I am not the cultist and am believed and chose not to take the other powers, the wolves cannot convert me if they go after me, correct?

[Racer]

Villager checking in.

[PurdueBrad]

Hmmmm, this should be an interesting one. Something rare here (compared to last game that is!), vanilla villager checking in, although I am curious by what I see with lerriuqs' play. He's a wily one.

Hey, since I claimed villager, does that earn me a Pass Point? +1 for me!

[PurdueBrad]

Wow, I'm in a game full of UTR players...

This is gonna be tough...

;)

Wow, four posts and you haven't voted me yet. Are you feeling okay?

[Racer]

OR he chooses the wolf side, gives us the name of a wolf, gets wolf killed overnight which gets turned into a conversion, and is suddenly the most trusted person in the game while being a wolf.

The Cultist wins with the wolves or am I not understanding the rules correctly? If that is the case, it would make much sense to use our believe vote on him.

[USFLTecmo]

The Pass Points system totally blows when you well and truly are a vanil... well, one of those things. Don't wanna earn another point if I can help it. :D

[lerriuqs]

The Cultist wins with the wolves or am I not understanding the rules correctly? If that is the case, it would make much sense to use our believe vote on him.

Not necessarily with the way the rules read.

[EagleFan]

Wow, four posts and you haven't voted me yet. Are you feeling okay?

I knew there was something that I forgot to do...

[PurdueBrad]

The Cultist wins with the wolves or am I not understanding the rules correctly? If that is the case, it would make much sense to use our believe vote on him.

I was thinking this. If someone is willing to basically take one for the team, lay claim to the role and then get killed, it works I guess. Or am I misunderstanding this?

[EagleFan]

Nuts, that makes 5 posts without voting for him...

[PurdueBrad]

I knew there was something that I forgot to do...

Well as long as you remember to do what my signature says, you and I are okay.

[PurdueBrad]

Nuts, that makes 5 posts without voting for him...

6!!!

[EagleFan]

Wait... now 6, or it is 7? Life is getting sooooo confusing.

[Tyrith]

The cultist is very simple, in my opinion. He gives up the wolf. We lynch whoever he tells us. And if that person turns up good, we lynch les D2.

[Tyrith]

Now, it seems there is a good chance this is a (misguided?) villager play - come out, try to get cultist, get a free wolf. The problem is that there's no way I'm going to trust anyone enough to give them the option to convert, at least not until we have absolutely no other choice.

And there seems like there's a decent chance the villager play could be used as cover for a real cultist who decided he wants to play on the dark side this game.

Honestly, I'm not so sure we shouldn't lynch les and skip all the junk.

[lerriuqs]

Now, it seems there is a good chance this is a (misguided?) villager play - come out, try to get cultist, get a free wolf. The problem is that there's no way I'm going to trust anyone enough to give them the option to convert, at least not until we have absolutely no other choice.

And there seems like there's a decent chance the villager play could be used as cover for a real cultist who decided he wants to play on the dark side this game.

Honestly, I'm not so sure we shouldn't lynch les and skip all the junk.

And miss the chance for an actual wolf? Really? Doesn't this move seem a little high risk for a first day play if I was a wolf?

If you're concerned about me getting the option to convert, you have the seer scan me on night 2 or any night after no kill happens. It'll be pretty easy to tell if I've converted. I mean really, for me, the only way to really gain from this play is to get a wolf out of the deal and turn villager. Any other play will get me killed pretty quick.

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, does it make any sense to try and coordinate within the thread who to believe for what roles, at least at the outset? I think that some roles are probably more valuable than others.

[Tyrith]

And miss the chance for an actual wolf? Really? Doesn't this move seem a little high risk for a first day play if I was a wolf?

If you're concerned about me getting the option to convert, you have the seer scan me on night 2 or any night after no kill happens. It'll be pretty easy to tell if I've converted. I mean really, for me, the only way to really gain from this play is to get a wolf out of the deal and turn villager. Any other play will get me killed pretty quick.

In this case knowing all the remaining wolves = conversion, for all intents and purposes. You'd be playing for their team, winning with them, and, most importantly, voting with them. And we would have no way to know which choice you took down that path, because you'd still scan clean. Seems dodgy to me.

I'd imagine that under most scenarios you'll have to cough up a name sometime in the next day. Unless Day 1 becomes about something other than this, which would surprise me.

[EagleFan]

I guess I might as well kick off the voting. Since someone calls my standing day one PB vote a wolf play I might as well go this way...

I bet he says this is a wolf play too...

vote Lathum

[Racer]

Introduction
Cultist
Starting: Will know the identity of 1 starting wolf. Counts as a villager, but wins if he is alive when the wolves win. If attacked by the wolves, he will become converted and become a Vanilla Wolf (this power is lost if the Cultist is believed)
If Believed: Will have two options. If the actual cultist is believed, will PM the GM and either gain knowledge of all remaining wolves and stay the cultist or may choose to renounce the role of cultist and become a Vanilla Villager. If it is not the actual cultist who is believed will gain the knowledge of 1 wolf and have the option of gaining the other starting cultist powers (including winning with the wolves) or not.



The cultist is very simple, in my opinion. He gives up the wolf. We lynch whoever he tells us. And if that person turns up good, we lynch les D2.

Okay, I reread the rules and I think I understand the Cultist now. If I read them correctly, the actual cultist or someone who claims to be the cultist gains the ability to chose whether or not they win with the wolves or villagers.

I think it would probably be good to lynch a believe cultist at some point (or any person that becomes believed for that matter). Because if I'm interpreting the rules correctly, a wolf gains additional powers if they successfully claim another role (since I seriously doubt a wolf would claim a wolf role).

It probably doesn't make total sense for a wolf to out one of their own, but they might to gain trust from everyone to block a villager from gaining what appears to be the most powerful believe role (since you get one wolf whereas there is no guarantee a believe seer scans a wolf). That said, I'm doubt that would be the wolves' plan this short into the game.

[Tyrith]

Hmm, does it make any sense to try and coordinate within the thread who to believe for what roles, at least at the outset? I think that some roles are probably more valuable than others.

Potentially. I think we want to somehow engineer a second seer through believing that at least, and probably a second bodyguard. This will require us to have a plan, though, and somehow figure out who we can trust. Or at least distrust the least.

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, I think those are pretty high value roles - not sure if we can make an intelligent guess on them in Day 1. And I think we risk putting a target on a "believed seer" if it is in fact a villager, but I guess my initial thoughts on this overall game concept is that we can either gain a big edge early or put ourselves behind early. Assuming something like a 4-1 ratio on Day 1, chances are that we start ahead early.

Also, if we believe a seer reveal, that helps to protect the actual seer from being a target by putting a bullseye on the head of the believed seer.

Anyway, that was my initial thought on how to try and best leverage the rules.

[Racer]

A little more thought, feel free to argue with me.

I think it would be a good idea if we had two or three people claim a role the 1st day, whichever believe role seems to be the most beneficial to the villagers (which actually seems to be the cultist at the moment). This way, we have another vote to add to everyone's record which should make things a bit more difficult for the wolves.

By having a believed cultist, we could get a wolf on day two (or three at worst) and could lynch the believed cultist later to be safe (in the case it's a wolf giving up a wolf). Basically, we'd probably be taking out one wolf at the expense of one villager.

[Tyrith]

Tyrith, I think those are pretty high value roles - not sure if we can make an intelligent guess on them in Day 1. And I think we risk putting a target on a "believed seer" if it is in fact a villager, but I guess my initial thoughts on this overall game concept is that we can either gain a big edge early or put ourselves behind early. Assuming something like a 4-1 ratio on Day 1, chances are that we start ahead early.

Also, if we believe a seer reveal, that helps to protect the actual seer from being a target by putting a bullseye on the head of the believed seer.

Anyway, that was my initial thought on how to try and best leverage the rules.

Well, I figured we'd wait a day or two. One way or another we're probably going to have to deal with this les mess, and there's no reason to rush into a decision about how to spend our believe today. So my probable suggestion for today would be to play it conservative.

[dubb93]

A little more thought, feel free to argue with me.

I think it would be a good idea if we had two or three people claim a role the 1st day, whichever believe role seems to be the most beneficial to the villagers (which actually seems to be the cultist at the moment). This way, we have another vote to add to everyone's record which should make things a bit more difficult for the wolves.

By having a believed cultist, we could get a wolf on day two (or three at worst) and could lynch the believed cultist later to be safe (in the case it's a wolf giving up a wolf). Basically, we'd probably be taking out one wolf at the expense of one villager.

Yea...in all seriousness I am the duke.

[EagleFan]

Believing a major village role day one would not be good. (accidentally handing it over the wolves could be a major setback)

Now believing the brutal wolf is another story.

:welcome:


(I know, odd smilie choice but it was the only one I saw that was waving)

[dubb93]

I refuse to claim the cultist as I am like many around here. The power that comes with that role would be too great for me to turn around. If I claimed cultist I would have no choice but to align with the wolves, feed you guys a villager and then myself to waste two days of your time. Like I said, I'm the duke and I refuse to claim any other role.

[EagleFan]

I would be a little cautious about believing a duke at the moment. It would be a good wolf play to try to get believed as the duke. Sit on the power as a member of the CoT, if scanned hope that you get revealed by the seer and now you know the seer plus you can duke away from a lynch the first attempt.

Of course there would be a way to test the duke theory. Force a tie on day one with the real duke (if not the one claiming) votes the opposite of dubb. If the one dubb votes gets lynched than we know he is telling the truth, if the other one does than we have our day two lynch prepared.

[hoopsguy]

EF, I was thinking the same on Dubb and if we have a pretty useless Day 1 then maybe it does make sense to engineer the tie and see if we learn anything.

[dubb93]

I would be a little cautious about believing a duke at the moment. It would be a good wolf play to try to get believed as the duke. Sit on the power as a member of the CoT, if scanned hope that you get revealed by the seer and now you know the seer plus you can duke away from a lynch the first attempt.

Of course there would be a way to test the duke theory. Force a tie on day one with the real duke (if not the one claiming) votes the opposite of dubb. If the one dubb votes gets lynched than we know he is telling the truth, if the other one does than we have our day two lynch prepared.

Eh, I'm not a wolf. If anyone else wants to claim duke they are more than welcome. I'm just playing the hand I was dealt.

[EagleFan]

Eh, I'm not a wolf. If anyone else wants to claim duke they are more than welcome. I'm just playing the hand I was dealt.

Than you should have no reason to dislike my plan.

[dubb93]

I welcome a seer scan as well. It will show I am a villager, although I would prefer it goes elsewhere and atleast has a shot of hitting a wolf.

[EagleFan]

I welcome a seer scan as well. It will show I am a villager, although I would prefer it goes elsewhere and atleast has a shot of hitting a wolf.

We would not need to waste a seer scan if we go with the tie idea. You would be cleared and the scan goes to good use elsewhere. Or if you are not telling the truth we catch you and the scan still goes elswhere to help us move along.

[Racer]

Believing a major village role day one would not be good. (accidentally handing it over the wolves could be a major setback)

Now believing the brutal wolf is another story.

:welcome:


(I know, odd smilie choice but it was the only one I saw that was waving)

My understanding, is that the actual seer, bodyguard, duke, etc. don't lose their power. Instead, there would be two of them running around (if a vanilla villager claims the role) or a wolf that was more powerful then before. It's a bit of a risk to potentially allow a wolf to gain additional powers, but I'd take that chance any day. We'd be at least have another vote to hold everyone to.

Because like I said earlier, I think the safe thing to do would be to also lynch the believed cultist at some point.

It could be a wolf trying to gain powers and trust or a villager that chose the dark side. If it's a villager that chose the dark side that is also attacked by wolves, then he/she becomes a wolf to my understanding. That would be very bad.

I've never been in a game where conversions and night kills can occur the same night so I suppose we could wait until the 1st time there isn't a night kill to lynch the believe cultist.

[hoopsguy]

Believing a major village role day one would not be good. (accidentally handing it over the wolves could be a major setback)



I don't think you are "handing anything over" other than the chance to double up on a role.

Only one person may be believed for a role at a time. Once believed a person can't be believed for any other role, UNLESS it was not that player's starting role and the actual person with the role dies. If that happens, the player who was believed falsely loses their powers. If a player is believed for a role that is not their own they will keep their starting powers, unless otherwise specified.

Once the person with a particular role dies that role may no longer be claimed.

I read that to suggest that if someone claims the seer role, it doesn't impact the existing seer at all, other than potentially giving him someone to scan on the first night.

If the fake seer is offed, then it has provided additional protection for the real seer. If the real seer is offed, then the person who claimed the power loses the role as they have been exposed.

Am I missing something on the overall risk management here? I'm this close to just claiming seer because I think it is a really strong play for the village.

F' it - I'm officially claiming to be the seer. I think the reasons stated above present a very compelling reason to believe me.

[ntndeacon]

I am also not a big fan of believing anyone on this day. There are sure advantages to us if we the forces of honesty get those roles (even if it means going against our heritage of always truthfulness.) As someone else mentioned, geting a believed Brutal wolf would be a coupe as would getting a believed seer (if for no other reason to make the darn liars waste a day or so)

[dubb93]

Believe Hoops as seer

Atleast Hoops gets it unlike EF.

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, if I claim to be the seer, and I'm believed, then die a day later the seer role is available for someone else to claim again and continues to be available until the "real" seer dies, right?

[EagleFan]

You are handing something over if you believe seer without any clue if you are handing it to a wolf. If the believed seer is a wolf and starts "clearing" people that is handing something over, it's handing trust over to an unknown. At least waiting can allow a pattern to develop.

[Racer]

I don't think you are "handing anything over" other than the chance to double up on a role.



I read that to suggest that if someone claims the seer role, it doesn't impact the existing seer at all, other than potentially giving him someone to scan on the first night.

If the fake seer is offed, then it has provided additional protection for the real seer. If the real seer is offed, then the person who claimed the power loses the role as they have been exposed.

Am I missing something on the overall risk management here? I'm this close to just claiming seer because I think it is a really strong play for the village.

F' it - I'm officially claiming to be the seer. I think the reasons stated above present a very compelling reason to believe me.


Ugh, I think the best play to make on day one would be for a couple of people to claim the cultist on day one (since that role actually gives you one wolf). That's a nice one time role.

With the believe seer, you actually have to successfully scan a wolf to get a wolf. Also, if the actual seer dies, then that person loses their role too. If a wolf claims this role, we gain nothing. We should lynch a claimed cultist anyways (in case they decide to be bad) at some point. Either the claimed cultist or the person they exposed as a wolf should be a wolf since it would be stupid for someone to false reveal a wolf as a non-wolf.

Much more advantage to claim the cultist on day one in my opinion and someone else claim the seer on day two.

I'm officially claiming to be the cultist.

[ntndeacon]

I hope the real seer checks on Hoops as well

[EagleFan]

I get it, I get that you sure aren't too committed to being the duke if you are afraid to let the idea of a tie vote test it out.

[USFLTecmo]

You are handing something over if you believe seer without any clue if you are handing it to a wolf. If the believed seer is a wolf and starts "clearing" people that is handing something over, it's handing trust over to an unknown. At least waiting can allow a pattern to develop.

Yes. This.

[dubb93]

I get it, I get that you sure aren't too committed to being the duke if you are afraid to let the idea of a tie vote test it out.

Maybe I'm really the brutal wolf.

[hoopsguy]

EF, if I'm believed then the seer can scan me tonight. I'm frequently an early scan target anyway.

The only wolf who would think of claiming this role would be the cunning wolf in an attempt to block the village from getting two scans. I'm not the cunning wolf, so I know that I'm heading this off at the pass. Well, at least initially, that certainly is an option for the next person claiming this role.

But me saying I'm not the cunning wolf, or a wolf overall, doesn't really mean diddly. Everyone else gets to make up their own mind if I'm playing that type of game and if you think that the risks outweigh the rewards then don't believe me. No hard feelings, but I do want to hear what you think is a better plan for believing people or better roles to believe.

[Tyrith]

I really, really don't want hoops to be the one that gets the seer power. Simply put, I want the initial suggestion of the idea and the selection of who is going to get the power should come from different people, to minimize our chance of getting played.

[EagleFan]

More double talk from him. I say lets play some chicken with his claims. If he is who he says than he is safe.

unvote Lathum

vote dubb

[PurdueBrad]

I hope the real seer checks on Hoops as well

I would like to see this as well.

Hoops, maybe I'm wrong here, but I don't believe that we should be swapping any roles around until day 2, when we can at least have gotten one scan under our belts to see what is going on.

[hoopsguy]

Ugh, I think the best play to make on day one would be for a couple of people to claim the cultist on day one (since that role actually gives you one wolf). That's a nice one time role.

With the believe seer, you actually have to successfully scan a wolf to get a wolf. Also, if the actual seer dies, then that person loses their role too. If a wolf claims this role, we gain nothing. We should lynch a claimed cultist anyways (in case they decide to be bad) at some point. Either the claimed cultist or the person they exposed as a wolf should be a wolf since it would be stupid for someone to false reveal a wolf as a non-wolf.

Much more advantage to claim the cultist on day one in my opinion and someone else claim the seer on day two.

I'm officially claiming to be the cultist.

The cultist has risks associated with it, in that the person can choose to play for the wolf team. The last thing we need is two cultists in this game, both the starting one and the one that we elect.

I won't suggest cultist because I probably would do the same thing that Dubb already outlined. And I'm pretty sure that many of the long-time players would do that as well.

[lerriuqs]

I'm officially claiming to be the cultist.

I'm the cultist...

Why not just believe me instead?

[dubb93]

I would like to see this as well.

Hoops, maybe I'm wrong here, but I don't believe that we should be swapping any roles around until day 2, when we can at least have gotten one scan under our belts to see what is going on.

The seer almost undoubtedly isn't going to reveal on day 2. On day two more than likely all we will have is two dead villagers and all the wolves still alive, thus a great shot of handing these roles to the wolves.

[Racer]

I really, really don't want hoops to be the one that gets the seer power. Simply put, I want the initial suggestion of the idea and the selection of who is going to get the power should come from different people, to minimize our chance of getting played.

Thinking about this, I agree. It would probably not be a good idea for people to believe Hoops, me, or the other dude that have claimed a role so far.

[EagleFan]

Engineer the tie, we'll find out if he is on the level. If he is lying the real duke needs to vote for him. We'll have a productive day one vote at that point.

[Tyrith]

EF, if I'm believed then the seer can scan me tonight. I'm frequently an early scan target anyway.

The only wolf who would think of claiming this role would be the cunning wolf in an attempt to block the village from getting two scans. I'm not the cunning wolf, so I know that I'm heading this off at the pass. Well, at least initially, that certainly is an option for the next person claiming this role.

But me saying I'm not the cunning wolf, or a wolf overall, doesn't really mean diddly. Everyone else gets to make up their own mind if I'm playing that type of game and if you think that the risks outweigh the rewards then don't believe me. No hard feelings, but I do want to hear what you think is a better plan for believing people or better roles to believe.

I think your plan is sound. I just don't trust you to be the executor of the plan, because you're too good at weird plans like this. It just seems to me there are a lot of ways we get sucked into one of those hoops mind games, and those are just losing propositions.

[dubb93]

More double talk from him. I say lets play some chicken with his claims. If he is who he says than he is safe.

unvote Lathum

vote dubb

I don't think you get this game. HINT: Read the name of the game.

[dubb93]

I find it funny EF is going on a crusade against me when nearly every player who has checked in other than him has claimed a role at this point.

[PurdueBrad]

The seer almost undoubtedly isn't going to reveal on day 2. On day two more than likely all we will have is two dead villagers and all the wolves still alive, thus a great shot of handing these roles to the wolves.

True, so why are we even trying to move roles around? Why not let the seer/duke/bg play it cool and leave them be. Once we publicly believe somebody, our UTR roled players lose their ability and everyone will publicly know who has each role.

[Racer]

I'm the cultist...

Why not just believe me instead?

We should have multiple people claim the same role so that way it is more difficult for the wolves to hide.

It would be like having a unanimous lynch on the 1st day. Choosing someone to believe is basically like voting for someone to lynch.

[lerriuqs]

True, so why are we even trying to move roles around? Why not let the seer/duke/bg play it cool and leave them be. Once we publicly believe somebody, our UTR roled players lose their ability and everyone will publicly know who has each role.

No the actual roled players do not lose their ability. You'd have two of them running around.

[Tyrith]

Engineer the tie, we'll find out if he is on the level. If he is lying the real duke needs to vote for him. We'll have a productive day one vote at that point.

The question is, who are we engineering a tie with?

[hoopsguy]

I hope the real seer checks on Hoops as well

I'm fine with that, but I would rather he check on me as a second seer. If I'm a villager and he is someone that he wants to have the second seer role then how is he supposed to validate me in the thread without tipping his hand?

I'm giving the seer a good playbook to execute for early in the game if I'm elected. He scans me, then he knows that he can trust my scans.

The risk in scanning me would be if I'm the nightkill. Then he isn't getting either a wolf or someone who extends the COT. But I'll leave that decision up to the seer (assuming I'm not the actual seer and creating a big stir in the thread to mask my true role, that is).

Heck, since I'm under the impression that I'll have a pretty short lifetime in the role I'll just publish my scans every morning for as long as I'm left alone at night. If I'm not finding wolves fast enough, then you have the choice to just lynch me because you think I pulled some kind of daring wolf move.

Honestly, help me understand where the upside is for me to do this as a wolf. I think it is potentially huge +EV for the village, which is why I'm volunteering for something that probably knocks me out of the game earlier than normal.

[lerriuqs]

We should have multiple people claim the same role so that way it is more difficult for the wolves to hide.

It would be like having a unanimous lynch on the 1st day. Choosing someone to believe is basically like voting for someone to lynch.

I suppose...though I'm not sure you'd get the same type of information out of it...But I'm game.

[dubb93]

Once we publicly believe somebody, our UTR roled players lose their ability and everyone will publicly know who has each role.

Wrong. If we believe a seer we have both the real seer AND the believed seer at that point. Same for the other roles.

[EagleFan]

I find it funny EF is going on a crusade against me when nearly every player who has checked in other than him has claimed a role at this point.

You are the only one to keep coming back with the "I really am" claim. If that is true than lets see this through to the end.

[dubb93]

You are the only one to keep coming back with the "I really am" claim. If that is true than lets see this through to the end.

I believe Ler has been doing the same with the cultist.

[PurdueBrad]

No the actual roled players do not lose their ability. You'd have two of them running around.

Ahhh, then I think I'm changing my mind on this. I distrust Hoops as much as any of you but if he becomes a second seer, we keep the role with someone else too, AND he is a villager, we're in good shape. If he's a wolf, we'll lynch him if he provides bad info. Where is the problem that I'm missing?

[dubb93]

You are the only one to keep coming back with the "I really am" claim. If that is true than lets see this through to the end.

And I already told you, I'm the brutal wolf.

[EagleFan]

The question is, who are we engineering a tie with?

I'll stick my neck out. dubb vote me, real duke vote dubb.

In the mean time believe me as brutal and we'll have the wolves on the run early.

[Racer]

I'm fine with that, but I would rather he check on me as a second seer. If I'm a villager and he is someone that he wants to have the second seer role then how is he supposed to validate me in the thread without tipping his hand?

I'm giving the seer a good playbook to execute for early in the game if I'm elected. He scans me, then he knows that he can trust my scans.

The risk in scanning me would be if I'm the nightkill. Then he isn't getting either a wolf or someone who extends the COT. But I'll leave that decision up to the seer (assuming I'm not the actual seer and creating a big stir in the thread to mask my true role, that is).

Heck, since I'm under the impression that I'll have a pretty short lifetime in the role I'll just publish my scans every morning for as long as I'm left alone at night. If I'm not finding wolves fast enough, then you have the choice to just lynch me because you think I pulled some kind of daring wolf move.

Honestly, help me understand where the upside is for me to do this as a wolf. I think it is potentially huge +EV for the village, which is why I'm volunteering for something that probably knocks me out of the game earlier than normal.

The short life span is one of the main reasons why I think it would be better to believe someone as the cultist on the day one (since that should get us one wolf) then believing someone as a seer.

[hoopsguy]

I think your plan is sound. I just don't trust you to be the executor of the plan, because you're too good at weird plans like this. It just seems to me there are a lot of ways we get sucked into one of those hoops mind games, and those are just losing propositions.

I think I've outlined the only risk here - that I'm the cunning wolf. There is no way that I would make this move with any other wolf role.

If you are that worried about me doing this as the cunning wolf then you definitely should not believe me.

If not me, then who? I'm willing to back the plan with someone else but I'm not looking to force it on someone when they are putting themselves very much on the firing line for N1 or N2 kill.

[dubb93]

Ahhh, then I think I'm changing my mind on this. I distrust Hoops as much as any of you but if he becomes a second seer, we keep the role with someone else too, AND he is a villager, we're in good shape. If he's a wolf, we'll lynch him if he provides bad info. Where is the problem that I'm missing?

And assuming we get some solid BG protection headed his way Hoops can reveal daily as long as he is alive. At some point if his info isn't BS the wolves will be forced to kill him and we will have a bunch of cleared villagers.

[EagleFan]

And I already told you, I'm the brutal wolf.

In that case you can brutal me when you lose the tie.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm tempted to believe Hoops but I'm going to give it thought (because seriously, how often has that turned out well for me?). I'm going to play the Show and will come up with something.

[hoopsguy]

The guy that I would have trusted 100% with the Cultist claim - Abe Sargent - doesn't appear to be playing this game. He is about the only player where I would have absolutely trusted him to do the right thing (from my perspective = not backstab with it, even if the backstab is more fun) with it as a starting villager.

[Tyrith]

Ahhh, then I think I'm changing my mind on this. I distrust Hoops as much as any of you but if he becomes a second seer, we keep the role with someone else too, AND he is a villager, we're in good shape. If he's a wolf, we'll lynch him if he provides bad info. Where is the problem that I'm missing?

Him providing bad info is going to involve us spending a day lynching a villager, probably throw us way off our game, and then we'd have to lynch him. I doubt he's making a wolf play, but he could be, so I'd rather thrust the power on someone than take the chance of him engineering himself a way to completely foul us up.

[Tyrith]

I think I've outlined the only risk here - that I'm the cunning wolf. There is no way that I would make this move with any other wolf role.

If you are that worried about me doing this as the cunning wolf then you definitely should not believe me.

If not me, then who? I'm willing to back the plan with someone else but I'm not looking to force it on someone when they are putting themselves very much on the firing line for N1 or N2 kill.

I really don't care. Just as long as we're not following who you suggest us to. It's not that I don't trust you, but this way just seems safer. And yeah, if you're cunning wolf we'd auto-lose this game something fierce, I think, but that seems quite likely to happen under any cunning wolf circumstance.

But I do think even as a regular wolf you'd get us to waste a believe, a seer scan, and a lynch fixing this. Plus if it's you it exposes us to a variety of wolf plays where they scan you, claim you're a wolf, and we get into a giant mess anyway. Granted, that latter scenario is possible with anyone, but it seems more magnified with you considering how you wind up being a focal point in any game where you live for more than two days. I would prefer to decentralize.

[lerriuqs]

Him providing bad info is going to involve us spending a day lynching a villager, probably throw us way off our game, and then we'd have to lynch him. I doubt he's making a wolf play, but he could be, so I'd rather thrust the power on someone than take the chance of him engineering himself a way to completely foul us up.

It's Werewolves - the concern of a wolf play is always here. So you go with the one where the least amount of damage can be done early. I think that's the cultist - you get a guaranteed wolf (or betrayed) - the same can't be said of the seer or any other role (maybe the brutal).

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, I'll continue to argue for the logic of the play on Day 1 even if it isn't me that is taking on the role. But I think I am the best choice for the role.

Play this out for a minute - I've proposed an idea that is not all that exciting for the wolves. They don't want a second seer out there right away - they would like that to be delayed as much as possible. But Pandora is out of the box at this point, from their perspective. So what do they want to do about it from here?

- Would they now try to get me elected in the role and just kill me early?

- Try to get one of their own into the role (remember, they have numbers to back a candidate) as a defensive posture?

- Try to squelch the idea entirely?

I'm honestly not sure, but I'm going to be really mad if we do end up giving the role to a wolf because we were worried about me making some kind of uber-move on Day 1. Every once in awhile (like last game) I'm actually a villager trying to optimize the advantages found in the game.

[lerriuqs]

It's Werewolves - the concern of a wolf play is always here. So you go with the one where the least amount of damage can be done early. I think that's the cultist - you get a guaranteed wolf (or betrayed) - the same can't be said of the seer or any other role (maybe the brutal).

And actually it's pretty much a guaranteed wolf regardless. You get 1 from the cultist or you get a converted cultist. For the record - I have no intention of switching sides. I plan on being a villager to the end of the game.

[Tyrith]

Tyrith, I'll continue to argue for the logic of the play on Day 1 even if it isn't me that is taking on the role. But I think I am the best choice for the role.

Play this out for a minute - I've proposed an idea that is not all that exciting for the wolves. They don't want a second seer out there right away - they would like that to be delayed as much as possible. But Pandora is out of the box at this point, from their perspective. So what do they want to do about it from here?

- Would they now try to get me elected in the role and just kill me early?

- Try to get one of their own into the role (remember, they have numbers to back a candidate) as a defensive posture?

- Try to squelch the idea entirely?

I'm honestly not sure, but I'm going to be really mad if we do end up giving the role to a wolf because we were worried about me making some kind of uber-move on Day 1. Every once in awhile (like last game) I'm actually a villager trying to optimize the advantages found in the game.

Yes, but once in a while you're also a wolf trying to screw us. Not that I am saying I believe this is particularly one of those instances, but they have happened historically.

Personally, I feel like the idea was going to come up eventually today, even if it wasn't you. It's just inherent in the game rules.

I just see making you the second seer making this another one of those games where it becomes all about you until you're dead. They happen, and they scare me because if you are bad, you have demonstrated a remarkable ability to stay alive and cause trouble in the process. It seems like it would be a better village insurance policy to staple the role to someone who is a crappier wolf. However, I am not going to be insanely obstinate about this.

[Racer]

Tyrith, I'll continue to argue for the logic of the play on Day 1 even if it isn't me that is taking on the role. But I think I am the best choice for the role.

Play this out for a minute - I've proposed an idea that is not all that exciting for the wolves. They don't want a second seer out there right away - they would like that to be delayed as much as possible. But Pandora is out of the box at this point, from their perspective. So what do they want to do about it from here?

- Would they now try to get me elected in the role and just kill me early?

- Try to get one of their own into the role (remember, they have numbers to back a candidate) as a defensive posture?

- Try to squelch the idea entirely?

I'm honestly not sure, but I'm going to be really mad if we do end up giving the role to a wolf because we were worried about me making some kind of uber-move on Day 1. Every once in awhile (like last game) I'm actually a villager trying to optimize the advantages found in the game.

It would not surprise me at all if a wolf was saying that we should pick someone to believe as the seer since if they don't suggest it first, some villager surely will at some point on day one.

I really think we should believe someone as a cultist though. Because like I said, it should get us a wolf on day two. We still shouldn't trust the believed cultist, but a getting a wolf is still getting a wolf.

There's no self check with a believed seer unless they die so we wouldn't know if their information was valuable until they died. Plus, we may not get a wolf this way.

[Tyrith]

It would not surprise me at all if a wolf was saying that we should pick someone to believe as the seer since if they don't suggest it first, some villager surely will at some point on day one.

I really think we should believe someone as a cultist though. Because like I said, it should get us a wolf on day two. We still shouldn't trust the believed cultist, but a getting a wolf is still getting a wolf.

There's no self check with a believed seer unless they die so we wouldn't know if their information was valuable until they died. Plus, we may not get a wolf this way.

Personally, knowing most of this crowd, I think believing someone as a cultist is asking for them to lie to us and spending two days running down people we shouldn't have to be lynching. I just don't think it's worth the risk of us getting betrayed to get that wolf unless we have a bad couple of days. We could potentially be handing the wolves a crony on a silver platter.

[Barkeep49]

Barkeep, if I claim to be the seer, and I'm believed, then die a day later the seer role is available for someone else to claim again and continues to be available until the "real" seer dies, right?

This is correct.

[Lathum]

Catching up. I've had a crazy busy day flying from Boston to Seattle, then having to get my dog and cat and try to get settled.

I will likely be quiet early on. Most of the long time players will tell you games like this take me a few days to wrap my brain around.

A couple of early thoughts.

This whole cultist=wolf thing seems to easy, without having a grasp of the rules, it seems BK would have something in place to prevent that from being so simple.

Hoops worries me. It seems he could be making this play as the cunning, become seer and buy himself a few days and some false scans that would cause us all kinds of problem.

I really don't like EF's game. Comes out early and claims wolf, then goes after me, then swaps to Dubb, it just seems like he is creating alot of confusion for confusions sake. He is also seemingly trying to set up some Duke/ tie showdown which seems to me would burn our Duke on day 1.

[Lathum]

I guess I was the threadkiller

[hoopsguy]

Back now - if people really think that I'm the cunning wolf making this move then you should just vote me out on Day 1. But someone should get the seer on Day 1. BK's confirmation of my question (see post #167) should make it crystal clear.

You do not have the downside with seer that you potentially introduce with cultist. That is pretty open-and-shut to me, but if others want to go in that direction then I would suggest being very careful with who you elect.

If someone else wants to be "secondary seer" then by all means step up and volunteer. Just realize, like I did when I posted it, that you are potentially walking into a very short game. High risk (wolf target), high reward (two seers, provide interference for real seer).

[hoopsguy]

I really don't like EF's game. Comes out early and claims wolf, then goes after me, then swaps to Dubb, it just seems like he is creating alot of confusion for confusions sake. He is also seemingly trying to set up some Duke/ tie showdown which seems to me would burn our Duke on day 1.

No, it does not burn the duke. The duke only starts off as the tie-breaker. If he is believed then he has the ability to move a lynch.

[Lathum]

No, it does not burn the duke. The duke only starts off as the tie-breaker. If he is believed then he has the ability to move a lynch.

yeah, but then the duke breaks the tie and buys it night 1?

[hoopsguy]

Well, any of the people on the one side of the tie could be the duke.

Barkeep49, is the duke revealed as the 'tie-breaking' vote?

Also, I'm not sure that getting the duke on N1 is optimal, especially if there are two seers to worry about (one of which they know). Even in a conventional game I think it is of questionable value to target the duke for a night kill on N1.

[Lathum]

shrug


I still don't like his play

[Tyrith]

Back now - if people really think that I'm the cunning wolf making this move then you should just vote me out on Day 1. But someone should get the seer on Day 1. BK's confirmation of my question (see post #167) should make it crystal clear.

You do not have the downside with seer that you potentially introduce with cultist. That is pretty open-and-shut to me, but if others want to go in that direction then I would suggest being very careful with who you elect.

If someone else wants to be "secondary seer" then by all means step up and volunteer. Just realize, like I did when I posted it, that you are potentially walking into a very short game. High risk (wolf target), high reward (two seers, provide interference for real seer).

I mean, I would do it, but it seems super dodgy for me to volunteer after asking you not to. So I'm thinking we should go a different route. And I would be okay with you doing it, if no one else wants to.

[saldana]

checking in, still deciding what to make of the whole believing people thing...i was a bit late to the signups (wasnt really planning on playing but at the time, BK needed people) so i need to go back and get a firm handle on the rules.

[Barkeep49]

Barkeep49, is the duke revealed as the 'tie-breaking' vote?
The Duke knows the answer to this question. Perhaps after a tie you will know the answer as well :)

[hoopsguy]

Racer, I'm pretty sure you understand the Cultist risk, right? If not, here is a long post on the topic.

Very possible scenario:
1.) We believe a cultist reveal
2.) That person learns about a wolf
3.) That person decides it would be fun to play for the wolf team instead
4.) That person reveals a villager, not a wolf
5.) We lynch a villager and then argue about when to get around to lynching the cultist

Even if the wolves decide to NK the cultist and minimize the risk, then we've just given up a villager role for the next lynch. Game moves forward with the same steps as listed above.

The only scenario where it is good for the village is if we elect a cultist who actually gives us a wolf. But even in that scenario the wolves have to cooperate and not turn him the night before - this is not a game with a 24 hour deadline where we would have a small chance of avoiding this action.

Now, if you want to make it more complicated and bring in the bodyguard to stay on the cultist then he may stay alive but then you still have to trust the person who volunteered to have started with the idea of being a good villager and not changing their mind by the following day.

I still think the seer is a better play because you run no risk of the person elected deciding to screw the village unless they already had a role that was going to screw the village. You also put pressure massive pressure on the wolves because two seers will create a COT wicked-quick if left to their own devices.

And if the wolves kill the person who reveals as the seer, then just elect a new one the next day to keep the heat on them. Sure they will try to infiltrate the process at some point, but at that point it is the village that is dictating terms to the wolves. That does not happen all that often in WW.

[hoopsguy]

OK, out for the night - not sure how much time I'll have tomorrow to continue making the "second seer/D1" case but I'm pretty confident that it is optimal play for the village on D1 under these rules if you are not stressed out about playing for 5+ days.

If there are other people who should take on the mantle, put them out there.

I think it is important to build some kind of consensus on what role we want to elect and what person (or two candidates, potentially) should be in the running.

[Racer]

Racer, I'm pretty sure you understand the Cultist risk, right? If not, here is a long post on the topic.

Very possible scenario:
1.) We believe a cultist reveal
2.) That person learns about a wolf
3.) That person decides it would be fun to play for the wolf team instead
4.) That person reveals a villager, not a wolf
5.) We lynch a villager and then argue about when to get around to lynching the cultist

Even if the wolves decide to NK the cultist and minimize the risk, then we've just given up a villager role for the next lynch. Game moves forward with the same steps as listed above.

The only scenario where it is good for the village is if we elect a cultist who actually gives us a wolf. But even in that scenario the wolves have to cooperate and not turn him the night before - this is not a game with a 24 hour deadline where we would have a small chance of avoiding this action.

Now, if you want to make it more complicated and bring in the bodyguard to stay on the cultist then he may stay alive but then you still have to trust the person who volunteered to have started with the idea of being a good villager and not changing their mind by the following day.

I still think the seer is a better play because you run no risk of the person elected deciding to screw the village unless they already had a role that was going to screw the village. You also put pressure massive pressure on the wolves because two seers will create a COT wicked-quick if left to their own devices.

And if the wolves kill the person who reveals as the seer, then just elect a new one the next day to keep the heat on them. Sure they will try to infiltrate the process at some point, but at that point it is the village that is dictating terms to the wolves. That does not happen all that often in WW.

The Bodyguard protecting the believed cultist wouldn't really be hard so the only worry would be the person deciding it would be fun to be flip. You are the 2nd veteran to say that's a real concern so if the consensus is to have a believed seer, I'm fine with that. I do think we need to believe someone tomorrow and there should be at least two people vowing for the same role (so it's sort of like a vote).

[Tyrith]

The Bodyguard protecting the believed cultist wouldn't really be hard so the only worry would be the person deciding it would be fun to be flip. You are the 2nd veteran to say that's a real concern so if the consensus is to have a believed seer, I'm fine with that. I do think we need to believe someone tomorrow and there should be at least two people vowing for the same role (so it's sort of like a vote).

At this point I'm pretty sure if we believe a random person cultist they are going to flip just to punish us for being silly enough to give them that chance.

[lerriuqs]

At this point I'm pretty sure if we believe a random person cultist they are going to flip just to punish us for being silly enough to give them that chance.

Nothing against you personally, but I find it funny that people are so slow to dole out any trust with a sounder (and much smaller reaching proposal) than believing a seer. If we believe a wolf seer - they can string things along for a long time (at least until the real seer scans them or is killed). And they don't have to reveal a single wolf. Believing a cultist would screw up two days - actually only one since you'd know a wolf and could save him to be lynched later. The implications to the game are way smaller than believing the wrong seer IMO.

And I have no intentions of flipping if I'm believed as the cultist - I intend to out a wolf as soon as I find out their name.

[DaddyTorgo]

checking in

[DaddyTorgo]

from the first time i saw the rules of this game i thought having multiple people reveal as the seer was an optimal play for us villagers, so i'm inclined to go with hoops on this one

[EagleFan]

The way I see it:

Believe Seer: mid to high risk, very small chance of high reward (cunning scan)
If good, should make it one night and gains us one scan
If bad it puts us farther behind due to deception

Believe BG: low risk, high reward
If good we gain another BG
If bad we lose the least I would believe

Believe Duke: very high risk
If good we gain the typical duke role which is not a slam dunk good thing
If bad we have given the wolves a chance to save one of their own with little risk as the believed duke can claim the usual "I went with a hunch" excuse

Believe Maniac: high risk
If good we gain someone with a night kill option which is hit or miss
If bad we give the wolves a second night kill with the same out as the duke

Believe Cultist: mid to high risk with possible high reward
If good and stays good we gain the name of a wolf
If good but swings bad we gain confusion
If bad we gain confusion

Believe Tough Villager: mid to high risk, little reward
If good helps avoid a lynch
If bad helps avoid a lynch

Believe Brutal Wolf: high risk, high reward
If good gives us a brutal of our own
If bad gives the wolves a roled kill

Believe Vengeful Wolf: low risk, low reward
If good it would make one player immune from night kills as the attacker would die which also means little chance of an attack on that person
If bad it would really only hurt if the player was duked to or night killed by other role but little chance of that as it wuld be a known believed role.

Believed Tough Wolf: mid to high risk, little reward
See Tough Villager breakdown (basically similar)

[EagleFan]

It would make the most sense to start out by believing a bodyguard.

It would also make the most sense that a wolf would try to come out and claim a role like duke early. Hmmm, if only someone has tried that....

[Tyrith]

Nothing against you personally, but I find it funny that people are so slow to dole out any trust with a sounder (and much smaller reaching proposal) than believing a seer. If we believe a wolf seer - they can string things along for a long time (at least until the real seer scans them or is killed). And they don't have to reveal a single wolf. Believing a cultist would screw up two days - actually only one since you'd know a wolf and could save him to be lynched later. The implications to the game are way smaller than believing the wrong seer IMO.

And I have no intentions of flipping if I'm believed as the cultist - I intend to out a wolf as soon as I find out their name.

Well, quite frankly, I don't think we can take your word on whether you intend to sell us out :P And I do agree with hoops logic about this. There's a 3/4 chance we get a second seer and blow the wolves out, and a 1/4 chance that we're shooting ourselves in the foot.

I haven't played with you, or read enough of your posts in previous games to know, but my rough estimate is that in the cultist sort of situation, especially early in a game, there's something like a 50-70 percent chance the person is going to pick evil. And if you do pick evil, the amount of damage one name is going to do less than several is significant, but not mind blowing - one bad name is two days, multiple bad names might be two days, it might be three if we read it wrong.

Without doing some hoops like poker math, it just doesn't seem like going along with you is the EV play right now. I remain open to going through with your plan later. A random wolf might do us more good further down the road.

[Tyrith]

It would make the most sense to start out by believing a bodyguard.

It would also make the most sense that a wolf would try to come out and claim a role like duke early. Hmmm, if only someone has tried that....

This is an assertion without an argument. That makes it seem fairly paranoid.

[EagleFan]

This is an assertion without an argument. That makes it seem fairly paranoid.

How? I have laid everything out. Where does the "without an argument" part come in?

[EagleFan]

This is an assertion without an argument. That makes it seem fairly paranoid.

Gotta love hit and run "analysis"...

[Tyrith]

I would be a little cautious about believing a duke at the moment. It would be a good wolf play to try to get believed as the duke. Sit on the power as a member of the CoT, if scanned hope that you get revealed by the seer and now you know the seer plus you can duke away from a lynch the first attempt.

Well, to the extent this is your logic, I disagree. Believing duke isn't immediately going to get anyone into a CoT in this particular game. If it does eventually, it's because there's no one else revealing duke either...which probably means he's the duke. And no one is in a rush to give him his duking power.

You seem thoroughly convinced he's not the real duke for some reason I can't determine. Unless you are the real duke, in which case you have taken a very roundabout way of showing that.

[Tyrith]

Gotta love hit and run "analysis"...

Congratulations, you have managed to just tick me off.

[Tyrith]

BTW, the concept of a hit and run at nearly midnight seems quite hilarious to me. Some of us occasionally sleep, you know.

[lerriuqs]

Well, quite frankly, I don't think we can take your word on whether you intend to sell us out :P And I do agree with hoops logic about this. There's a 3/4 chance we get a second seer and blow the wolves out, and a 1/4 chance that we're shooting ourselves in the foot.

I haven't played with you, or read enough of your posts in previous games to know, but my rough estimate is that in the cultist sort of situation, especially early in a game, there's something like a 50-70 percent chance the person is going to pick evil. And if you do pick evil, the amount of damage one name is going to do less than several is significant, but not mind blowing - one bad name is two days, multiple bad names might be two days, it might be three if we read it wrong.

Without doing some hoops like poker math, it just doesn't seem like going along with you is the EV play right now. I remain open to going through with your plan later. A random wolf might do us more good further down the road.

Honestly, I think a 25% chance of believing a wolf into the seer role is way too high. The cultist isn't going to cause nearly as much damage and is far easier to determine if it goes sideways. As stated, all you need is for the Cunning to be the one believed and you're basically screwed. With the cultist - he's only useful for one day and you've always got the opportunity to lynch him since you know he's there.

[EagleFan]

Well, to the extent this is your logic, I disagree. Believing duke isn't immediately going to get anyone into a CoT in this particular game. If it does eventually, it's because there's no one else revealing duke either...which probably means he's the duke. And no one is in a rush to give him his duking power.

You seem thoroughly convinced he's not the real duke for some reason I can't determine. Unless you are the real duke, in which case you have taken a very roundabout way of showing that.

I am not claiming anything.

Read my post outlining why I believe we should or shouldn't believe every given role. Instead of quoting a post which is ONE post later where I give my belief based on that previous post and say that I am not giving any argument for what I say.

Giving a wolf the duke role gives them an out for saving a wolf in a lynch and allows them to claim "oops, my bad" when a bad duking occurs. It makes EVERY bit of sense that the first role a wolf would try to get would be that one. It is not a bold obvious move like going after the brutal or maniac and it offers them plenty reward.

[EagleFan]

I'll say it one last time before getting some sleep.

BG is the way to go. It is very low risk and very high reward. Wih a voting history of day one we may have a little more to go on with who to trust to believe as seer day two and have a potential network of protection in place with real and believed BG.

I agree that staying away from cultist for now may be a good idea.

[Danny]

Just got back in town from a long drive. I will get caught up at some point.

[Tyrith]

Honestly, I think a 25% chance of believing a wolf into the seer role is way too high. The cultist isn't going to cause nearly as much damage and is far easier to determine if it goes sideways. As stated, all you need is for the Cunning to be the one believed and you're basically screwed. With the cultist - he's only useful for one day and you've always got the opportunity to lynch him since you know he's there.

Cunning is 1/17 - about 6%. Realistically, a 6% chance of dumping the game on Day 1 isn't bad considering the upside. Heck, it's the same chance we have (in a vacuum) of lynching the real seer on Day 1 anyway, and that rarely stops us from doing that.

And we can always just lynch our second seer if they live too long. I have advocated the lynch the seer to prove the data strategy from time to time in the past.

[EagleFan]

BTW, the concept of a hit and run at nearly midnight seems quite hilarious to me. Some of us occasionally sleep, you know.

Funny how you were in and out of the thread several times after I asked you a question about your post. One which you still haven't freaking answered; yet you respond to my other post within a minute.

[Tyrith]

I am not claiming anything.

Read my post outlining why I believe we should or shouldn't believe every given role. Instead of quoting a post which is ONE post later where I give my belief based on that previous post and say that I am not giving any argument for what I say.

Giving a wolf the duke role gives them an out for saving a wolf in a lynch and allows them to claim "oops, my bad" when a bad duking occurs. It makes EVERY bit of sense that the first role a wolf would try to get would be that one. It is not a bold obvious move like going after the brutal or maniac and it offers them plenty reward.

Is anyone at all advocating giving dubb the full duke power today, besides dubb himself? And, alternatively, why wouldn't the first wolf try to foul our obvious seer play, like hoops has? Plus "oops, my bad" isn't exactly a foolproof strategy for getting past us.

[EagleFan]

Cunning is 1/17 - about 6%. Realistically, a 6% chance of dumping the game on Day 1 isn't bad considering the upside. Heck, it's the same chance we have (in a vacuum) of lynching the real seer on Day 1 anyway, and that rarely stops us from doing that.

And we can always just lynch our second seer if they live too long. I have advocated the lynch the seer to prove the data strategy from time to time in the past.

Not just the odds of cunning but you also must calculate the odds of it being a wolf. We either build a CoT which becomes useless and waste time chasing our tail or the real seer has to out himself if he scans the believed (and with a fake seer role out there it could just make the real seer question his own scans).

Believed BG is the way to go day one. We risk losing little and have a huge upside.

[DaddyTorgo]

i hate the fact there's so much for me to catch up on already - i hate you all. will have to try to catch up tomorrow at work

[EagleFan]

Is anyone at all advocating giving dubb the full duke power today, besides dubb himself? And, alternatively, why wouldn't the first wolf try to foul our obvious seer play, like hoops has? Plus "oops, my bad" isn't exactly a foolproof strategy for getting past us.

Did I say anyone was advocating giving him the power? I merely said that it would be a wolf play to try to get that power.

[EagleFan]

Now I am going to bed.

One more time:

BG, BG, BG

We should believe a BG today!!!!

Lay the foundation before expanding outward.

[Tyrith]

Funny how you were in and out of the thread several times after I asked you a question about your post. One which you still haven't freaking answered; yet you respond to my other post within a minute.

Notice that my previous post came right after you posted the hit and run comment. I have spent most of the last hour considering going to bed, and also spent most of it doing things other than hitting F5 in a mostly vacant WW thread. I also took the time to attempt to compose a measured response, instead of just snapping off.

And I did miss the big role by role post when I went back half an hour ago; it's not a type of analysis I particularly favor. I will now drag my tired brain back for one more go around before I finally go to bed, like I should have an hour ago.

[Tyrith]

Not just the odds of cunning but you also must calculate the odds of it being a wolf. We either build a CoT which becomes useless and waste time chasing our tail or the real seer has to out himself if he scans the believed (and with a fake seer role out there it could just make the real seer question his own scans).

Believed BG is the way to go day one. We risk losing little and have a huge upside.

If it's a wolf the wolf is dead in three days. And then the names they have given us at least give us something to speculate about.

[Tyrith]

The hitch in the seer plan is if we go believing a wolf seer early on, and get led off a cliff. This is the same risk as believing a wolf cultist. The simple solution in both cases is not to. We just don't trust the data for anything conclusive until we have some means or evidence to use as verification of their allegiance. There's no reason to get bogged down if we realize it's likely to happen.

This is a large part of the logic that's been in my head to get the seer role away from hoops. Because of the context of his backing of this plan and his nature, any data that comes from him is bound to wind up consuming a large part of our attention in any day. As much as possible I want this to not be about just our believed seer, at least until we can actually demonstrate that they should be trusted.

That said, I understand why BG day 1 is a good choice, too, because it takes the whole temptation to get bogged down in he said seer wars out of play. And ultimately that might prove to be better. However, in the end a BG has to get very lucky to have as much affect on a game as even one well placed seer scan. And if we are going to go down the seer path, the earlier the better, because it increases the chance our real seer is alive to give us some sort of verification.

This is why I am against the cultist plan - ultimately, regardless if we believe a seer or a cultist, we are probably going to need a corpse to figure out what's going on.

[dubb93]

Giving a wolf the duke role gives them an out for saving a wolf in a lynch and allows them to claim "oops, my bad" when a bad duking occurs. It makes EVERY bit of sense that the first role a wolf would try to get would be that one. It is not a bold obvious move like going after the brutal or maniac and it offers them plenty reward.

If I am not the "real" duke as you have claimed I urge the real duke to come forward. He isn't going to, I am the duke no matter if you like it or not.

With that said I would give up my full duke power if I get believed as brutal wolf b/c that is such a kickass power and we need it to be in the hands of the village, not the wolves.

[Chief Rum]

Checking in.

Okay, I don't understand the resistance to hoops' plan, or EF's amendment. The logic is sound. Hell, I figured this out reading the rules before the game started. As someone said, it was an idea that was fairly likely to be proposed by someone today, hoops or no (and it would have been me if no one said anything to this point).

Now, EF is right. We can only believe one person per day. We should believe the BG first, and select a seer candidate to be believed on Day Two. The real seer can scan the seer candidate on Night One. The Believed BG can protect himself on Night One, and the Believed Seer on Night Two.

If we believe a seer first, he'll either be NK'd by the wolves, protected by the real BG (a possibility, but I am a little skittish about putting the real BG at possible risk), or be left alive for us to debate why the next day. That's either going to be a worthless role or have us wasting a day debating a lynch.

So select a BG on Day One. Pick a Seer to believe for Day Two. Believe said Seer Day Two.

And do not act on the Believed Seer's reveals until we can be certain of his allegiance.

I see no value in the Cultist belief idea. There's too much left open. No clear to start, we need to do a lynch to check the Cultist, and even then he might have chosen the wolf side and they decided to play out a wolf for trust. Uh uh, bad idea.

I am undecided on the Duke plan. I think there's more to it than we're spelling out right now, but it's like that nagging feeling I can't pin down yet.

I don't see a limit in roles you can claim in the rules, just what you can be believed. So, to give the village options I will make the following statements:

I am the bodyguard
I am the seer
I am the duke
I am maniac
I am the tough villager
I am the brutal wolf

Believe what you will.

[PurdueBrad]

Just catching up. Sorry, got tied up last night playing The Show because I finally got called up, well, to The Show (of course I'm not sure being the fifth starter for the Nationals qualifies but still).

The combination of Hoops/EF's logic looks right, in that we need to get another roled player out there and I particularly like the idea of getting another BG. I saw CR offer himself up and I'm fine with that but just in case, I'll offer myself up as well.

I am the body guard.

[saldana]

i gotta agree with eagle fan...we need to believe a BG today...if we do that and then have the real BG protect that person tonight, tomorrow we believe a 2nd seer...the 2 bodyguards alternate nights of protecting the 2nd seer and that person stays alive ad infinitum.

[PurdueBrad]

Wow, okay, I think I have this right. I included everything I saw (or thought I saw depending on how it was worded):

Reveals:

Cultist: lerriuqs (71), Racer (124)
Duke: dubb (82), CR (209)
Brutal: dubb (151), EF (64), CR (209)
Seer: Hoops (119), CR (209)
Bodyguard: CR (209), PB (210)
Maniac: CR (209)
Tough Villager: CR (209)

If I missed something, just quote and fix.

[PurdueBrad]

Looking at the reveals we have to choose from, the best places to choose from, imho, are:

Bodyguard today, seer tomorrow.

What is the benefit to us voting a brutal? IF I understand correctly (and I'm applying the seer rules here), they already have one brutal, why would we want to make a second?

[PurdueBrad]

Brutal Wolf
Starting: When lynched may choose a player to kill. If no name has been given to the GM, a random villager will be killed.
If Believed: Will randomly kill a roled player on the opposite team (all wolves are presumed to be roled). If there are no villagers with roles left, two villagers will randomly be chosen to die. If the starting Brutal Wolf is believed they lose their starting power.


Quoted for myself. I do see the advantage of a brutal wolf for the village. I would say, however, that I still like the bodyguard/seer combo and then maybe the brutal.

[hoopsguy]

The advantage to a seer before BG or brutal is that if the believed seer lives a day he gets to name someone as cleared. That person can then be put into the next role, so you are getting a V.I.L.L.A.G.E.R (not a W.O.L.V.E.S) in that role.

D1 - believe a seer
N1 - BG can opt to protect believed seer, "real" seer can scan believed seer
D2 - believed seer clears a villager, who is believed into another high value role
N2 - wolves now have two "cleared" villagers to worry about, with more on the way if they do not take out the believed seer

If we put another role in first, we delay the timetable for this high value play.

Look, getting another BG is great - I want to have two of them and two of some other roles as well. But it does not put the same kind of pressure on the wolves as two seers. I'm not sure how you dispute this logic and I'm getting a smidge paranoid about anyone who is spending time discussing other options as being higher value.

If you do not trust me, as the person who is pushing this logic, then please give the role to someone else. I trust myself, I hope you trust me, I accept the likely fragile nature of the role. That is about all the campaigning that I'm going to do today. If you (the voters) do not trust me then please select some alternate candidate(s) that make sense and I'll back one of them.

[PurdueBrad]

Hoops, don't they likely kill our believed seer immediately and thus we get no scan from them? Or what am I missing?

[PurdueBrad]

NM, got it, re-read what you said.

[PurdueBrad]

I trust myself, I hope you trust me, I accept the likely fragile nature of the role. That is about all the campaigning that I'm going to do today. If you (the voters) do not trust me then please select some alternate candidate(s) that make sense and I'll back one of them.

You need a slogan and maybe to do some baby-kissing. Then maybe you'll get my vote. Also, where do you stand on taxes?

[Racer]

Catching up, how is any believed role any less risky then another (other then maybe Cultist since the person can flip if they want)? To me, the bodyguard and seer are equally dangerous. Unless I am misunderstanding the rules, the wolves gain the same additional powers whether they successfully claim being the bodyguard, seer, or some other role.

If we aren't going to believe a cultist today (which is fine), then we really should get a 2nd seer. Someone said the real seer should scan the believed seer on day one which would be a guy check in my opinion.

[PurdueBrad]

Alright, I see what Hoops is going for here.

Believe Hoops (damn, those words sounds so, so, so wrong) is the seer

[DaddyTorgo]

Heck, since I'm under the impression that I'll have a pretty short lifetime in the role I'll just publish my scans every morning for as long as I'm left alone at night. If I'm not finding wolves fast enough, then you have the choice to just lynch me because you think I pulled some kind of daring wolf move.


I think this is a good idea for whoever we have doubling up on the seer role at whatever point.

[DaddyTorgo]

As I said before, it's at least similar to the type of play I envisioned on D1 when I was discussing the rules of the game beforehand with Barkeep, so I have no reason not to

BELIEVE HOOPS

[DaddyTorgo]

I'm happy to put myself up as the "second seer" if people are really worried about hoops.

I questioned barkeep before the game about the value of ALL villagers claiming seer and then we could rotate the believing throughout everyone day after day in the game and have people post their scan results, and that would essentially give us an extra piece of info to tie people to BTW.

it's an interesting thought that might have merit?

[DaddyTorgo]

you could also by doing that ensure that the BG was always guarding at least one of the two seers (fake and real) every night, since the person would rotate and presumably the BG can't guard the same person every night.

[DaddyTorgo]

curious to see what people think of my modification of hoops' idea?

[DaddyTorgo]

At this point I'm pretty sure if we believe a random person cultist they are going to flip just to punish us for being silly enough to give them that chance.

speaking for myself, i totally would :devil:

[DaddyTorgo]

*tap tap* is this thing on???

lol

[DaddyTorgo]

8

[DaddyTorgo]

9

[DaddyTorgo]

10!!

10 IN A ROW!!!

[hoopsguy]

If it is feasible to rotate people in/out of the seer role day by day I'm OK with doing that, although I think that potentially limits the effectiveness of it. Less risk, less reward (wolves probably will want to grab the role when possible, they obviously won't find a wolf until end-game).

If you have a villager in the role N1 and he is alive on D2 then why would you want to sub him out?

[DaddyTorgo]

because if you sub him out then the BG can re-guard the new person with the role

essentially i'm just arguing for the logical continuation of your thought after you die

[DaddyTorgo]

i guess

[DaddyTorgo]

plus by rotating people and posting results it gives us another piece of data to hold people accountable for, and if the wolves take the role and start giving us false information we will uncover them, and if they give us good information on who is a villager it will only cut down on the number of potential wolves

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep - is the believed person able to disavow their role upon obtaining it and leave it available for the masses to believe a new person on subsequent days?

[Tyrith]

I think the potential pitfall with the pick a seer, scan the new seer, believe the new seer plan is that we probably have a fake seer in this game. Which means we're going to have to have multiple people step forward and if their results conflict, we won't know which one to trust...sort of killing one of them. Which I kind of suspect might have to happen eventually anyway.

So we're ultimately going to wind up with most of our roles on the table in fairly short order. That doesn't seem like a terrible thing in this particular game, but it seems like it will be a couple of days before it all develops. There is a fair amount of risk in this plan, regardless, but the upside is so tremendous that it seems like something we should go forward with.

That said, I really am just not a fan of the hoops coronation, but I just might have to deal with that.

[EagleFan]

:banghead:

When you are making a house do you build the foundation first or go start on the attic?

Believe a BG and there is little risk of being led astray day one. It also gives us a vote pattern to use as something to base the seer believe from. It also doubles the number of potential blocks for tonight which puts more pressure on the wolves.

Worst case scenario we believe a wolf as the BG and just don't get the extra block but we have in effect lost NOTHING.

A second BG is huge but everyone is not only being led down a road to the seer believe but by the person who has suggested it. You are saying the only risk is if the cunning gets the seer role but that is not true at all. It is a risk not only if any one the wolves get the role but it the cultist gets that role it is just as deadly, if not even more so.

[Tyrith]

We only lose with an extra seer if we immediately believe what they say. No one is suggesting that. There is a very, very good chance that three days from now we are going to lynch whoever the heck gets this job, regardless of what happens between now and then. You only get led off a cliff if you follow someone off a cliff. We control all the risk.

[Racer]

Hoops, don't they likely kill our believed seer immediately and thus we get no scan from them? Or what am I missing?

Well if they do, then that will protect the original/real seer from getting night killed. I would think they would seek out the real seer though so then there would be no seers running around.

I think I might rather go with cultist (despite it's added risk of a villager screwing us and switching sides). Seer would be my 2nd choice without a doubt though.

I'm with Tyrith in that I don't feel comfortable giving the seer role to Hoops. People suggested throwing out alternatives earlier, so here's a few: Schmidty and ntndeacon.

I'm also will to claim the role but I feel a lot of people are already going that route.

[Racer]

Well if they do, then that will protect the original/real seer from getting night killed. I would think they would seek out the real seer though so then there would be no seers running around.

I think I might rather go with cultist (despite it's added risk of a villager screwing us and switching sides). Seer would be my 2nd choice without a doubt though.

I'm with Tyrith in that I don't feel comfortable giving the seer role to Hoops. People suggested throwing out alternatives earlier, so here's a few: Schmidty and ntndeacon.

I'm also will to claim the role but I feel a lot of people are already going that route.

Meant to say willing not will.

[Racer]

:banghead:

When you are making a house do you build the foundation first or go start on the attic?

Believe a BG and there is little risk of being led astray day one. It also gives us a vote pattern to use as something to base the seer believe from. It also doubles the number of potential blocks for tonight which puts more pressure on the wolves.

Worst case scenario we believe a wolf as the BG and just don't get the extra block but we have in effect lost NOTHING.

A second BG is huge but everyone is not only being led down a road to the seer believe but by the person who has suggested it. You are saying the only risk is if the cunning gets the seer role but that is not true at all. It is a risk not only if any one the wolves get the role but it the cultist gets that role it is just as deadly, if not even more so.

Potentially be burned by trusting the believe seer is a dumb reason in my opinion to believe some other role. Obviously, we should take what the believed seer says with a grain of salt.

The real risk is the same whether we believe someone as a seer or a bodyguard and that's a wolf successfully being believed and gaining an additional power.

[hoopsguy]

EF, you are correct that going with a bodyguard is a good, safe play.

It does not give the village as good a chance of controlling the game, but if you are overly worried about giving the role to a wolf instead of a villager then you can take the safe play.

But, here is the question - when do you decide to take a chance in going down the seer path? The real seer isn't going to come out and clear people so how are you building your COT? If we lose two villagers, one at D1 lynch and one N1 kill, then isn't the risk of giving the seer role out on D2 greater than it was on Day 1?

Again, if you don't trust me as the recipient of the role then give it to someone else who volunteers. I'll be fine with being the architect of the plan if not the person who executes the plan. Naturally I worry about giving it to someone else when I know it would be in good hands with me, but you (again, generic you reading this post and not EF specifically) don't know that so it is up to you to make decisions that you can live with in your "BELIEVE" votes.

[Racer]

I'm happy to put myself up as the "second seer" if people are really worried about hoops.

I questioned barkeep before the game about the value of ALL villagers claiming seer and then we could rotate the believing throughout everyone day after day in the game and have people post their scan results, and that would essentially give us an extra piece of info to tie people to BTW.

it's an interesting thought that might have merit?

I definitely think we need to have at least two options today on who to believe. If it's a close vote between a wolf and a villager, then there's a decent chance most of the wolves will believe the wolf to avoid getting a 2nd seer in the game (or whatever role we go with unless it something not that powerful like a duke). So basically, if we have multiple options, then it's one more thing we can use to sort out the wolves.

[USFLTecmo]

I have no "real" role, so if I'm needed as a candidate for something, I can do it. Probably better for me to risk my hide than for others with actual roles and/or better ability to read people than I do being taken out early.

[PurdueBrad]

So if I read Hoops' description correctly. We name an alternate seer today, our real seer scans that person while our bodyguard protects the alternate seer. Tomorrow, we name a second bodyguard and, if a seer doesn't reveal and say the second one is a wolf, then we name a second bodyguard. I think that is a fairly safe play in all honesty.

Who is to say that we won't name a wolf bodyguard and they won't use their action or they'll do a no kill and pretend it was a block w/ no info in order to get trust?

I think the seer route may be a touch safer.

[USFLTecmo]

While we're playing around with who to trust as a seer, I suppose voting someone out should also be in the cards.

Vote Lerriuqs

Either we nab ourselves the cultist, which is a better result than we can honestly expect from a random selection, or he comes out as something else altogether. Until he does that, though, I like my vote.

[USFLTecmo]

Bah, forgot bold.

Vote Lerriuqs

[Racer]

Believe Chief Rum as Seer

He's the only person so far claim to be the seer besides Hoops. Like I said earlier, I a bit wary of Hoops and I think it would benefit us to have options.

Also, I think it would be good to start voting to lynch someone now to see if there is any movement to get votes off of someone.


Vote dubb93

Will almost certainly move this vote, but he's acting a bit off the wall in this thread so far so I think it's safe to say he's not the real seer, bodyguard, etc. I also find it odd that he didn't vote for Eaglefan when 1.) He acts like he's suspicious of Eaglefan. 2.) Eaglefan voted for him

[DaddyTorgo]

I AM THE SEER

now we have another option - and i'm leery of trusting Chief Rum with anything in WW because I chronically have poor reads on him.

VOTE LERRIUQS

for the reasons laid out by USFL

[lerriuqs]

While we're playing around with who to trust as a seer, I suppose voting someone out should also be in the cards.

Vote Lerriuqs

Either we nab ourselves the cultist, which is a better result than we can honestly expect from a random selection, or he comes out as something else altogether. Until he does that, though, I like my vote.

We have three people who have claimed the brutal and one other who has claimed the cultist and this is your logic??

Really?

Why would a wolf jump out at the very start and open himself up like that? Hmm?

No, the wolves today are claiming villager roles not wolf roles.

With that being said:

VOTE DaddyTorgo

Something about his first two posts in here overnight struck me as odd.