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View Full Version : Curious DL 40 yard vs. pass rush correlation


bpm07
06-22-2009, 10:31 PM
So I've been doing some data mining using the ole' draft generator for FOF 2004 and plugging random draft files into FOF 2007 to see if some magic can be performed... While the jury is still out on the magic, I saw something curious happen with 40 yard times for defensive linemen and their pass rush rating (true rating in draft file). See plot at the bottom...

Maybe this is old news, but it seems as a 40 yard time just above 5.0 (rough estimate) may indicate excellent pass rush rating, while a 40 yard time between 4.85 and 5.0 not so much (and again excellent pass rush for 40 below 4.85 ish). These are just rough estimates but it was mainly the pattern that really seemed strange.

Observing other scatterplots for combine data vs. known ratings (for all positions) never showed the same strange pattern (except a slightly weaker one for LB's and pass rush, go figure). Any ideas as to why this is the case for DL players?

TheMeat
06-23-2009, 01:39 AM
The high ratings in pass rush for the players with a 5.x dash time are coming from your DTs I presume. A 5.0 dash time is an excellent dash time for a DT and indicates he has a high rush technique. For DEs however a 5.x is a terrible dash time, and since you just say DL I'm thinking you have both together. That would explain things, but correct me if I'm wrong.

I like the scatterplot tho, would be interesting to see for other positions, shows a good cutoff point for what to expect ratings wise for certain combine scores.