Development & Timing

[Jughead Spock]

Couple general questions about development, some that I *think* I know, but would like to hear what the facts/opinions are.

1. Is it adding points, or just revealing points? i.e., if a player is 20/47 at the beginning of a year and ends up at 28/47, is he playing as a 28 all year and you're just 'finding out', or is he getting progressively better? Or is he playing as the say, 44/44 player he'll end up being?

2. Apart from position changes and volatility, there's no development past year 3? Meaning the 1-2 points a week in the regular season, not the changes in the off-season.

3. No development happens during weeks 18-20 if you're not in the playoffs?

4. Is there a 'schedule'? It seems like week 16 is when I see a lot of those 34/37's become their 35/35 selves.

5. Along the same lines... if you have a player in year two approaching his apparent maximum... say, 56/60... is it better to rest him and allow for development in year 3? As opposed to him capping out at 58/58 in week 17, f'rinstance. Does that switch from year 2-3 stop the creeping?

6. Is all this completely irrelevant as the bars are a big lie anyway? :banghead:

[gstelmack]

1. True development adds points and the player gets better as the season goes along. This is especially true if you see "current" movement during the year.

2. Players develop as they play. Some can certainly develop past year 3.

3. Not sure about playoffs.

4. 34/37s become 35/35s when their positional experience maxes out typically. This has been explained by most masking gone when a guy hits max experience, which is why you can still see green and development room even when the guy hits max positional experience. I had a light bulb go on when Ben made a post linking experience with unmasking.

5. There is no benefit to resting to create later development. If you want a guy to develop, play him, period.

6. Bars aren't irrelevant, but yes figuring out how good a guy really is especially at positions along the OLine can be very difficult. However for most players once they are fully developed you generally have a pretty good idea of how good they really are. For most players.

[Celeval]

1. Getting better

5. Creeping is the revealing you talk about in #1. Your "hidden potential" stays the same, regardless.

When you see a 20/50 guy who creeps and develops to 75/75, it's a combination of two factors. The creeping is a reveal - that 20/50 is actually a 30/75, but hidden. So he's playing like a 30/75. As he develops over the course of a few seasons, he's in actuality playing like a 30/75... 45/75... 60/75... 75/75, even though you're seeing him as a 20/50... 35/58... 52/65... 75/75.

[Celeval]

This works in reverse as well. That 40/80 QB you drafted at 1.1 who will eventually become 50/50 is actually playing at a 25/50 level right off the bat.

[QuikSand]

This works in reverse as well. That 40/80 QB you drafted at 1.1 who will eventually become 50/50 is actually playing at a 25/50 level right off the bat.

If you're a little lost, and there's only *one* thing you come away from this thread understanding... this should be it.

[Dutch]

fof-IHOF.com : Player >> Brent Washington (http://www.fof-ihof.com/players/player.php?player=14926)

Check out this dog. There is a cool player rating progression (or regression in this case) showing this QB unmasking to the point of lameness. He really only played in preseason, but he always sucked in preseason statistically, which might be a clue that he going to 'bust' rather than 'boom'.

This guy was actually quite obvious due to the large discrepency between current and future. Also, his combines weren't spectacular, so we kind of knew he wasn't going to ever be a 66/66 guy.

And I know some folks that hate looking at a couple of stat lines in preseason as any indication of anything, but his was particularly bad (and different from the other QB's that would play).

[mrfahaji]

I'm digging up an old thread rather than start a new one, because this is along the right lines of what I'm wondering...

I had a player who developed really quickly, his Future Value adjusted through the course of a couple of seasons from 63 to 58 to 48 and he eventually ended up as 45/45.

I had just finished training camp number 3, and afterwards he was 46/46. Good stuff. I quit and forgot to save, and when I re-started and ran training camp a second time he was 33/33... I found this puzzling, so restarted AGAIN and the second time he came out of TC at 45/45.

I understand the general unmasking of players (to an extent), but I was surprised that a player can change, and change so rapidly in the case of 45 -> 33.

Does this mean his real ability is 33, or are there just some random things happening in Training Camp which dictates the FV of the next season?

Hope that makes sense...

[thenewchuckd]

The one off time he dropped to 33/33 was most likely a volatility hit. You know, the random hit you occasionally see for guys with high(ish) volatility numbers (although I have seen a case recently where a guy with 15 vol took a pretty big hit but that should be a pretty rare occurance).

However, I will say that in my experience many guys never fully unmask. If a guy is trending downwards, he is probably slightly worse than his final bars indicate. Ditto for the opposite. So while he might be 45/45 for the rest of his career, he probably won't play to that level.

Also, another note on masked players. You can often see them have a hesitation season when they get close to or at 100% developed. So a guy creeping downwards will bump back up a bit, only to lose that value at the next training camp. Same for a guy creeping up. When he gets close to full development, he'll lose value but gain it back (and usually more) the following season.

[mrfahaji]

Ok right. I didn't know anything about a 'volatility' hit until now, but I checked and yes, he has a volatility rating of 90, so guess that would be it.

Do scout ratings change? I'm sure mine was pretty decent to begin with, but after a draft where his 'Overrated'/'Underrated' impressions seem to be a bit off, I looked at his ratings and they aren't looking very good any more!

[aston217]

I think coach ratings can change, but I never paid much attention to that. I think Quiksand hits the mark with #1: players both unmask (revealing their true ratings) and develop (improve in their ratings towards potential).

I don't think I had ever heard of no development beyond year 3. Certainly many players haven't reached their potential yet by then but still gain in current (at least, I hope so, because my 3rd year QB is in that situation in the OSFL).

No development occurring during weeks you don't play? Maybe. Wonder if that's true for bye weeks as well.


This has been explained by most masking gone when a guy hits max experience, which is why you can still see green and development room even when the guy hits max positional experience.

Yeah, what does this mean, incidentally? In each of the following cases:

- Matching Cur/Pot, Red experience, Green in the bars
- Unmatched Cur/Pot, Red Experience, Green in the bars
- Matching Cur/Pot, Not Red, Green Bars
- Unmatched Cur/Pot, Not Red, No Green

[thenewchuckd]

First, I will preface this by saying that I slightly disagree with Mr. Stelmack when it comes to unmasking. I don't think most unmasking is done when a player hits max positional experience. For example, I am playing a single player game right now.

For example, I drafted a CB with out of this world combines, a clear stud in that sense. He started out rated 19/21. When he hit max experience he was 41/41. Into his 5th season now he has crept up considerably but is only 54/54. I am pretty sure he is actually more like 70/70 but probably better.

Some guys (most guys?) just never completely unmask.

Any time you see current and potential maxed but green in the bars, it means he is going to creep more. Or at the very least, his bars are going to redistribute.

Same for matched current/potential, he is going to creep more or at the very least, his bars will redistribute. Look at my guy WR Mercury Preston in the CyFL. This guy has crept up to 69/69, he is still showing orange experience so he will creep more. But cut test shows that he is going to lose value. That's because he is gaining in some bars but losing ground in others.

Similarly, if a guy is almost fully developed but seems to have a lot of green for his development curve, he will probably just never get there.

I dunno if that answers your question.

[gstelmack]

Well, I did say "typically", but yes I have had guys hit full positional experience and retain some green bars.

[thenewchuckd]

Well, I did say "typically", but yes I have had guys hit full positional experience and retain some green bars.

I didn't mean guys still having green bars. I am talking about guys who show no green, all red, when they hit their full positional experience. But they are still not completely unmasked and probably never completely unmask during their whole career.

Maybe I misread you and we were talking about completely different things. ;-)

[Firefly]

1. I think guys are rookies until they "get it". It's sort of a quantum leap they take from X (unknown) to 100%
3. I've never seen a guy gain points unless he plays
5. I don't think it matters
6. Yes

[MIJB#19]

1. I think guys are rookies until they "get it". It's sort of a quantum leap they take from X (unknown) to 100%
3. I've never seen a guy gain points unless he plays
5. I don't think it matters
6. YesOn 3., I think the key factor is being active and that the team plays a game. Players will develop if they don't play a down. Yet, whether they actually do gain a point or two that week is random.

[Firefly]

Yes, you may be right... active players not in the depth chart might actually see action in ST, though