Value of Future Year Draft Picks

[Alan T]

I had an "interesting" discussion with someone today regarding the value of future year draft picks where they and I had a fundamental difference in how we viewed future picks. It got me thinking, was I really off the wall as much as he made it seem? How do others view the value of a future pick versus a current one?

In the NFL for instance, it seems pretty common that a team looking to trade up to get an immediate pick (ie, the draft is currently at the 12th pick and a team trades up to get that pick), they will end up having to give more for that move up. That is not what is being discussed here however.

In this scenerio, we are talking about a FOF league with primarily list drafts where it is common to load up a priority list with 15-25 names ahead of time, and trading for a pick that is later to come.

Do you view a middle of the first round pick in the current year draft worth equal value to a good chance of a top 10 pick in the next year's draft? Do you view a middle of the first round pick in the current year's draft worth pretty much equal to a middle of the first round pick for the next year? Or some other value? Such as middle of first round pick this year is worth a likely top 10 pick next year and plus some?

I'm not putting a poll on this thread as I'm more interested in the conversation then anything. So please include your reasoning for it.


As for my personal thoughts, I guess I have a hard time understanding how a middle of the first round pick from this year is worth more than a first round pick in the next year that is going to be 99% likely to be around the same pick if it benefits both teams to make the swap. Especially if there is a greater than 50% that the future pick will likely be a better pick.

I'm not including names/leagues/teams/etc since I don't want it to be about specifics as much as the overall theory. I'm curious if I am just way off base and if so why?

Thanks, looking forward to hopefully interesting conversation at least!

[Celeval]

My take is that there is generally a premium involved for getting a player a year early. So assuming drafts of approximately equal value, and spots in the draft of approximately equal spaces... then it's how much it's worth getting that player early. Generally if I'm looking to trade into a spot, I expect to pay more... but if I'm moving out because I don't like what's there, I'm ok getting roughly equal value.

First round is tougher just because first round is riskier. 1.15 being between 1.10 and 1.22 is a much greater swing then 3.15 being between 3.10 and 3.22; or 5.15 being between 5.10 and 5.22. It's also less risky dealing from the bottom of a round - sending 1.32, you know you'll get at least that back next season.

[cyril]

If I look at this purely from the draft value point, instead of positions, I'd say the current mid-round pick is worth less than a equal in future. Here's my theory: since the point value of the picks grow exponentially as you move up, I'd would think there is more to gain than to lose for the one trading his current pick. the mean point value of the 1st round is 1158, which is just a tad above the 13th pick (1150), so if we are talking about a pure mid-round (16/17th) which has a value of 1000/950, then the one giving up his current pick would need to bundle a mid-3rd to equal to the speculative future point value.

We all know it does not work this way though, it is often the reverse, the future pick is always discounted. My guess is that human factors and speculations come in - if you are trading for a mid-1st, that probably means that you see something that would dramatically improve your team, and the trading partner has reasons to worry that next yr he will not get a mid-rounder. I think this is reasonable too.

For myself, I believe in Murphy's law - if I am trading away my future, I know I will ending up doing pretty bad - if I am trading for someone's future, I bet I will end up getting burnt by a low pick. That's why I don't like trading futures unless I am offered something that in terms of probability I have a really good chance to getting better value.

[Alan T]

My take is that there is generally a premium involved for getting a player a year early.
.

I can see where that might be true when talking about targeting a specific player. But when considering say list drafts, where it could be any one of several people does this still apply? Isn't there also value on the backside of having the other player a year later?

Does that make this somewhat subjective depending on the state of your team then as well, where a rebuilding team might be better off having them one year later or at the same time as a team is ready to "bud", where a contending team might need the players sooner to contribute before the team ages out?

Does this make this entire question end up having the answer of "It Depends" ?

[Sef0r]

Its hard to value so I generally give 2 options to the person I am trading with.

1 - straight swap, I take the risk of giving up this years pick for next year not knowing where it might land. Of course, I tend to generally trade with teams I know don't really have a chance at the playoffs, that way I can make sure I get top 20.

2 - make it conditional if the other person doesn't wan't to get burned if their pick ends up in the top 10 or even top 5. Should their pick next year end in the top 5 then I given them a 2nd and 3rd, if it is between 6 and 10 I just give them a 2nd. This could also work for the other party, if the future pick I traded for falls between 20 - 30 I get an additional 2nd, if he makes the championship game then a 3rd on top of the 2nd gets added.

[jdavidbakr]

I'd equate it to the time value of money. If the 12th pick this year is worth the 12th pick next year to you, then I'd like to borrow $1,000 from you today and pay it back next year with no interest. If you'll have the $1,000 a year from now, but don't now, you pay a premium to use that $1,000 a year early by borrowing it with interest. Same logic should work with draft picks.

[Jughead Spock]

It almost always depends on the talent pool and draft goggles. I generally have found that the only way you're going to see significant value in a swap-out is if the person trading up has a specific player they want. Then it's a matter of if that player is a WR or a QB, which basically triples the value.

I seem to remember there being some formula for following years' picks a la the draft trade value chart, but can't find it. And FOF hardly ever follows that.

It's a good topic, fo' sho'.

[digamma]

Discount future picks to present value.

[johnnyshaka]

I look at it this way...if I'm the one dealing for the current year pick I know what I'm getting as a return...or at least I hope I know. If I'm the one giving up the pick for future picks, I'm the one taking the risk because I don't know what's going to be available nor do I know when I'll be picking.

The one taking the risk is always the one who should be compensated in a transaction like this.

[Bako]

I'd equate it to the time value of money. If the 12th pick this year is worth the 12th pick next year to you, then I'd like to borrow $1,000 from you today and pay it back next year with no interest. If you'll have the $1,000 a year from now, but don't now, you pay a premium to use that $1,000 a year early by borrowing it with interest. Same logic should work with draft picks.

Great comparison here. I totally agree.

[Stokes36]

Great comparison here. I totally agree.

I am totally agreeing with this agreement. Perfect comparison.

[Firefly]

You should always get something extra, but how much depends entirely on both parties' perception of the probable value of the future pick. So it's easy for there to be a disagreement.

[bighouserulez]

You should always get something extra, but how much depends entirely on both parties' perception of the probable value of the future pick. So it's easy for there to be a disagreement.

I had the 2nd worst team going into the House league draft and i traded with FF for his pick 1.32.

In his mind he was making out, trading the last pick in the 2nd round for a top 5 pick in the following year's draft.

In my mind i had already filled two holes via trades and really only needed a wide receiver to make the team very serviceable. I feel my team got a starting WR out of this draft which i am not sure we would have gotten next year at pick 1.15.

[Firefly]

I had the 2nd worst team going into the House league draft and i traded with FF for his pick 1.32.

In his mind he was making out, trading the last pick in the 2nd round for a top 5 pick in the following year's draft.

In my mind i had already filled two holes via trades and really only needed a wide receiver to make the team very serviceable. I feel my team got a starting WR out of this draft which i am not sure we would have gotten next year at pick 1.15.

lol I'll be ecstatic if it's a top 5 pick. I really didn't think about it much, or even look at your roster. I wasn't happy with how the round was shaping up and knew almost any future first rounder would be a better pick. I do recall the Islanders winning that division in the past, however.

[bighouserulez]

lol I'll be ecstatic if it's a top 5 pick. I really didn't think about it much, or even look at your roster. I wasn't happy with how the round was shaping up and knew almost any future first rounder would be a better pick. I do recall the Islanders winning that division in the past, however.
Wow you must have read somthing wrong FF they have never won the division and have only had one winning record ever ;) .

[jdavidbakr]

Wow you must have read somthing wrong FF they have never won the division and have only had one winning record ever ;) .

1994 - 8-8 and division winners, won the wild card game

1994 vNFL House Playoff Seeds (http://vnflhouse.jdavidbaker.com/seeds.php?year=1994)

1995 - 8-8 and division winners, won the wild card game

1995 vNFL House Playoff Seeds (http://vnflhouse.jdavidbaker.com/seeds.php?year=1995)

:D

If you want to see a horrific history, just look at the Sooners prior to 1997. 1996 was our first .500 season. And, yes, I've been piloting them since 1992...

[TheMeat]

In the PFL I started making most of my trades conditional, like Sef0r mentioned. So there's some insurance for both parties because important trades involving 1st round picks are very hard to predict. Huge difference between 1.10 and 1.20.

As far as what the value is, I'll trade this year's 1.15 for next years 1.15 for.. maybe a third rounder added to the deal. Not a huge markup but something to make the deal worthwhile.

That changes tho if perhaps I don't like any of the players available with my current pick and just want to roll the dice on having better selection with next year's pick. Lots of other variables too, but I'd say next year's pick is about 90% as valuable as this year's pick.

[bighouserulez]

1994 - 8-8 and division winners, won the wild card game

1994 vNFL House Playoff Seeds (http://vnflhouse.jdavidbaker.com/seeds.php?year=1994)

1995 - 8-8 and division winners, won the wild card game

1995 vNFL House Playoff Seeds (http://vnflhouse.jdavidbaker.com/seeds.php?year=1995)

:D

If you want to see a horrific history, just look at the Sooners prior to 1997. 1996 was our first .500 season. And, yes, I've been piloting them since 1992...

Thank you JD i stand corrected. When i look at standings they are brutal and i did not see any playoffs attached.

I agree with meat unless it is a heavy loaded pool of draftees i would trade what would be about the same pick next year and add an additional 3rd.

If you are in historic drafts the talent pool has a huge drop off after round 3. I sincerely only put value on 1st, 2nds, and 3rds. The rest of the picks i would trade away for 1 3rd round every year if i could.

[jdavidbakr]

When i look at standings they are brutal and i did not see any playoffs attached.

Yeah, there always seems to be that one division that sends a pretty bad team to the playoffs.

[Firefly]

It's not as bad in the House league as in the AUFL -except for last year. I keep a record of all my draft picks so I know what the real value of picks is for me in each round of each league, and in my first 2 drafts I found 6 current starters in rounds 4-6. I haven't been as fortunate since, but there's talent.