Sample size relatively small for now, but some evidence of crowd size affecting hfa.

[Ben E Lou]

Teams 11, 21, and 30 in IHOF have all had over 85,000 fans at their home games from 2022 to 2025. They haven't been particularly good over that stretch--overall record is 78-113-1, or .409. In FOF, the home team wins 55.9% of the time overall, so from that we can establish and "expected home win pct." by simply multiplying the overall pct. by 1.118 (.559/.500).
So the expected home win pct. of those teams over that period would be .457. How'd they actually do in front of those big crowds at home???

51-44-1

.536


hmmmm....

So then I went and checked some crap attendance teams at WOOF to see if perhaps low attendance leads to lackluster home performance. WOOF has two teams that have been under 30K for nearly a decade, so it was easy to decide where to start. The two of them are a combined 102-184-2 (.358) overall. Expected home record from that would be .400. Actual? 54-89-1, or .378. Not as big of a difference, but a significant one over 144 games.

I can set up some reports later this evening to check it league-wide, but just wanted to throw this out there for now.

[cuervo72]

GO TEAM 21!!!

(whee, the only reason I'm winning is bc I have a big stadium)

[Ben E Lou]

GO TEAM 21!!!

(whee, the only reason I'm winning is bc I have a big stadium)Since 2022 the Red Menace are 24-39-1 overall (.383). You are .578 (18-13-1) at home. You have averaged 85,440 attendance over that stretch.

[Chubby]

team #30 FTW!

[Ben E Lou]

Hmmmm..WOOF team 28 has had 80K plus for over a decade. Gonna run some numbers on them...

[Ben E Lou]

115-73-1 overall. Expected winning percentage at home would be .699. Actual is .670. First case of one of these teams not performing as the norm. Possible mitigating factor of horrid home turf. (Does the owner rest his injured guys at home more or lower playing time on stars?)

Anyway, I want to get much larger samples, probably by attendance range, and report on this.

[BreizhManu]

Ive noticed the general attendance for Paris was going up but it's extremely slow.

[miked]

So then I went and checked some crap attendance teams at WOOF to see if perhaps low attendance leads to lackluster home performance. WOOF has two teams that have been under 30K for nearly a decade, so it was easy to decide where to start. The two of them are a combined 102-184-2 (.358) overall. Expected home record from that would be .400. Actual? 54-89-1, or .378. Not as big of a difference, but a significant one over 144 games.

I can set up some reports later this evening to check it league-wide, but just wanted to throw this out there for now.

Uhm, FU?

[Ben E Lou]

Uhm, FU?
?

[GobBluth]

In FOF, the home team wins 55.9% of the time overall, so from that we can establish and "expected home win pct." by simply multiplying the overall pct. by 1.118 (.559/.500).


Is this actually correct? If you apply this formula to a 16-0, or 15-1 team, you get an expected win pct >100%. Or should I think about this as more of an approximation?

Not saying you aren't on to something, I'm just curious about the thought process on this formula.

[Ben E Lou]

Fair point there. It may be that I need to use the % delta between home and away win pct. I'll look at that.

[Firefly]

That would be something if this hypothesis holds up