Crazy Draft Player - Need some advice

[imdashep]

So looking at this guy at a position of need, and I'm not sure I have the balls enough to pick him.

6'5, 234 lb ILB, 5.8/5.6 grade, red scores in Solecismic Test (beating #2 guy at position by 9 pts), Broad Jump (by 8 inches), and PSpec (8 pts). Blue dash (also #1 at position), black strength and agility (both closer to blue than black). 57% developed.

However, my 'very good' scout at his position says he is very overrated, but puts his ratings at a gray/orange level somewhere in the vicinity of 15/20. Uber-scrub according to ratings, uber-stud according to combine. Should I pick him?

[imdashep]

Also, his ratings are pretty uniformly low.

BLHF Front Office Football Conscriptor version 1.28.6b (http://www.bigleaguesports.net/blhf/draft/show_player.php?player_id=23) in case it works.

[DeepPost]

Gee, this looks familiar, I am anxious to see what everyone thinks. I traded away the pick that could've been used on this guy.

[MacroGuru]

92 Volatility keeps me away from him..

[bulletsponge]

id stay away also unless the draft is weak. if hes there in the 3rd round, go ahead and take a gamble

[imdashep]

The draft is pretty weak. Ended up dealing a future first (~23-28) and 2.23 for him plus a future 3rd (~25-31). We shall see.

[Sef0r]

"pretty weak" is an understatement if the number# 23 ranked player looks like that. What are you going to use him for, because his run stop is non existant for a traditinal MLB, actually for any ILB spot.

wow...who took that Center 1st overall?

[RedHawk00]

mostly i want to know who took the punter at 1.20... very weird indeed

[DeepPost]

AI...

[imdashep]

So wait, I thought everyone was all over combines, saying they are the biggest thing. Now they aren't apparently?

[sovereignstar v2]

McGrew Larry ILB 77 233 1957 Southern California 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 462 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 595 522 492 462 474 577 432 Berkeley, CA 94 6 1 0 0 0 0 0

[sovereignstar v2]

"pretty weak" is an understatement if the number# 23 ranked player looks like that. What are you going to use him for, because his run stop is non existant for a traditinal MLB, actually for any ILB spot.

wow...who took that Center 1st overall?

His run defense should be fine. :)

Edit: Probably not going enough to stop The Fridge though...

[imdashep]

McGrew Larry ILB 77 233 1957 Southern California 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 462 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 375 595 522 492 462 474 577 432 Berkeley, CA 94 6 1 0 0 0 0 0



What is that?

[QuikSand]

I don't have the most experience with "real player" draft files, but I don't think you can take all the research that has been developed to analyze and understand game-generated drafts and just transport it over to apply to hand-made imported files, and expect it all to work perfectly.

What I do know of the "real player" draft files is that they are painfully thin drafts, where the caliber of player you tend to see after the first 50-80 picks is very, very marginal.

[Raiders Army]

I don't have the most experience with "real player" draft files, but I don't think you can take all the research that has been developed to analyze and understand game-generated drafts and just transport it over to apply to hand-made imported files, and expect it all to work perfectly.

What I do know of the "real player" draft files is that they are painfully thin drafts, where the caliber of player you tend to see after the first 50-80 picks is very, very marginal.

Not true at all. I'd have to roll over to my laptop, but there are several hidden gems in the real player drafts as well. Much of it has to do with the AI. A prime example would be QBs. There have been many QBs in my SP career that have been drafted in rounds 5-7 or UFA that have excelled.

[QuikSand]

Certainly agree that the nitwit AI will miss plenty of quality players. Sure.

My point was on this example, clearly a MP league.

Overall if theres any doubt about the notion that these historical draft files are shallower than game generated files, this would be the first I've heard it.

[Raiders Army]

Sorry, mis-read your post. I have little experience with MP and the historical files. I have played many years in SP with the historical files though...probably too many.

[imdashep]

FYI, guy came out 19/23, about where his bars looked, prior to TC.

[imdashep]

19/23 to 21/28. Creeper! :)

[DeepPost]

Yep. My guess: 42/42 when he is unmasked. You need to keep updating this thread as he develops!

[imdashep]

No hope for 70/70 lol?

[bighouserulez]

Yeah i bet you are lucky to get a 40 rated player when all is said and done.

[imdashep]

Just as an update, he finally met his 28/28 potential in week 11, and moved to 29/29 after 12. Stats wise though he has been terrific: 11 games (9 starts), 28 tackles, 11 assists, 5 sacks, 2 interceptions (including one for a TD).

[bulletsponge]

his sacks and picks are nice, but only 28 tackles in 11 games is real low for a ILB

[garion333]

his sacks and picks are nice, but only 28 tackles in 11 games is real low for a ILB

I agree. That many tackles would be more in line with a WLB who blitzes frequently.

[MIJB#19]

All the signs are there that this player has a pretty low run defense bar and the stats so far are supporting that as well.

[imdashep]

Right, I mean, I think the last three posts were fairly obvious. In fairness, most of those 9 starts came in a nickle formation, and he hasn't been playing all that many snaps; gets subbed on a ton of run plays. But still, very happy with his performance so far.

Interesting though that his combines are pretty much irrelevant, and that he is so far meeting his bars.

[MIJB#19]

Interesting though that his combines are pretty much irrelevant, and that he is so far meeting his bars.Some of the combine scores still don't match with the bars he's supposed to have, so it's a bit early to draw any decent conclusions. In these circumstances, just go with the stats and then we'll see 5 sacks from a position that usually doesn't produce sacks. This to me says he's got the pass rush stats to do well, or that he's been playing at WLB in a 3-4 quite a lot.

[imdashep]

I run a 4-3, and he's not listed at WLB, so I doubt he plays any 3-4 WLB.

[imdashep]

33 to 34 in second TC. Oh well ;)

[imdashep]

39/39 in FA 1 after his second season

[garion333]

What tackle percentage is he getting?

[imdashep]

1980: 36 tackles, 5 sacks, 3 ints, 7.2%
1981: 74 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 int, 13.5%