Value of future picks

[Wanderer]

I've done some searching, but I haven't found this discussed anywhere.

Does anyone have a chart of the value of future picks to the AI? Anecdotally it looks like in the 1st round the AI will trade a current pick for a future pick if it holds the 16th pick or worse, presumably on the theory that there's a better than 50% chance that it will be a trade up. But that gives no time value.

In other rounds, it looks like it varies dramatically.

Also, when making complicated trades there is a value difference between 1 year out and 2 years out, but not on a one for one basis. Not entirely sure about this though, because the gaps in value in the 1st round are dramatic and I've had a hard time pinning down how they are valued in later rounds. There may be a markdown for 2 years out that is just smaller than the gap between 16 and 15 or 17.

Any thoughts on this? I know most of y'all seem to be exclusively MP so this is irrelevant, I'm just curious. I know in real life the general rule is a 1 round bump to account for time value, but generally this only holds true in the 16-25 range of a given round (ish).

[DeepPost]

I think the AI takes into account the talent level still available in the current round. I have had years where I could trade a future number 1 straight up for 1.15 or 1.16 and other years where the AI wouldn't do it until 1.20 or later. I have had similarly talented teams in both cases so I don't think AI was factoring in my possible record the next season.

[QuikSand]

Without the aid of testing, I have always felt comfortable with the assumption that the game basically uses some variant of the "draft value chart" in assessing picks, and makes some sort of discounting of future picks when doing so. I confess that I haven't really plumbed for details on this front, but I have yet to encounter anything that suggests otherwise.

I can't refute DeepPost's assertion above, nor his experience, but my money is still that this is guided by a pretty simple and numeric formula that completely ignores everything subjective like "what's left in the draft" or "how strong is that team's roster" -- I reckon it's is quite rote and objective.


On the matter of what is an appropriate discount for future picks, I think that's really tough. If you put in something that models the conventional wisdom of the NFL (a one-round discount per year of delay is the rule of thumb... i.e. this year's 3rd is worth next year's 2nd) then you probably create a massive exploit, since the sim environment (solo or MP) almost completely misses the real-time anguish and sacrifice of delayed gratification. My guess is that the game discounts future picks in some simple way, but by less than that amount.