Legends of Sri Lanka

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 26) -- 13,460

Not as dominant as recent years so far, but still the clear best player in the world overall. Iglar will be looking to return to form in the summer and fall hardcourt swing, where he is still prohibitively favored everywhere.

2. Anil Mehul(SRI, 27) -- 11,520

Repeating at Wimbledon has Mehul as close to the top spot as he's ever been, though it still seems definitely out of reach.

3. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 29) -- 10,400

Over the last month, Benda showed he's still very much a factor at the top.

4. Cestmir Marcek(CZE, 29) -- 7,400

Marcek is unquestionably the surprise player of the year so far. He's opened up a big gap on the players below him, a few of whom are decidedly more talented. Right now he's making the absolute most of his abilities, reaching a career apex when he should be slowly fading away. Very impressive play so far.

5. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 27) -- 5,400

The top American continues to be pretty good, just not quite as good as he should be.

6. Girish Girsh(SRI, 24) -- 5,105

Having reached the quarterfinals or better in all three Slams this year, Girsh continues a gradual rise.

7. Perry Mockler(USA, 27) -- 4,490

Good enough to hang around, not good enough to go anywhere.

8. David Alvarez(ESP, 30) -- 4,235

9. Perry Hogue(USA, 29) -- 3,365

The end is basically now for both Hogue and Alvarez, barely a shadow of the players they were a year or two ago.

10. Roger Federer(SUI, 26) -- 3,185

Somebody's got to have the last spot, and Federer takes it back with Thiago Herrera having a subpar clay season compared to his breakout a year ago. Condon, Marcelo Herrera, Kinczllers, Smitala are all potentially good enough to take this spot and not that far behind. None of them look like big risers however, it's a big mass of 'meh' contenders.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update


Anil Mehul -- 2nd singles(unchanged), 259th to 373rd doubles. It's been an up-and-down year for Mehul but mostly a good one, with a 40-5 record his best at this point overall. Surprisingly clay Masters wins and a repeat at Wimbledon more than overcome the early RG departure and struggles in the hardcourt Masters.

In the longer-term though, his career has reached a critical point. Both Mehul and 'legend in his own time' Iglar have now past their peak. Not by much, but a few weeks before Wimbledon it become clear that the aging process is now accelerating to the point where he can no longer stay ahead of it. This would be a much bigger concern if there were any bigtime up-and-coming young players, but the weakness of Generation Flash will likely allow him to maintain his status for a while, at least for the most part.


Girish Girsh -- 7th to 6th singles, 260th to 374th doubles. A slow and steady rise continues, and the bad news for Mehul and Iglar means Girsh is by far the best player in the world who is still improving. As time goes on, the competitive balance should tip more and more in his favor. He's been consistent this year but hasn't had many breakthroughs, partly because he's been in Iglar's quarter a lot. The law of averages, both through draws and the advance of time, should turn his way soon.


Prakash Mooljee -- 1071st to 698th singles, 2098th to 1752nd doubles. As I write this Mooljee has just finished up another Tier-3 futures title not included in these rankings, eking out another tight final to make him 28-0 on the year in singles. I expect him to hit more resistance soon, as he'll move up to about 560th and will be taking on bigger futures events now. So far though, it's been a picture-perfect year for him as he continues to move up the rankings ladder. His goal at this point is to be ready to make the jump to challenger-level play by year's end.


Manager Ranking -- 4th to 3rd, 26.1k to 28.6k points. The last few months were very kind with Mehul having some unexpected titles, and Girsh performing consistently. Hayato in 2nd place is still over 2k ahead -- he's the guy who manages Hammerstein. oprice rolls on, not setting any new records this year but presently at 62k. Once I reach second place, I'll probably be staying there for a good long while.

[Brian Swartz]

2043 Race to the World Tour Finals
Initial Post-Wimbledon Standings

In

Bjorn Benda -- 7,490
Antonin Iglar -- 6,710
Anil Mehul -- 6,560

This ... is not the usual order of things, to put it mildly. I don't think the year-end #1 is as much up for grabs as this indicates, but that's only true if Iglar dominates the hardcourts coming up as expected. If Benda can replicate the form showed so far through the fall, things could well get very interesting. Mehul still has a lot of work left, Wimbledon title notwithstanding, to keep his #2 spot.


Probable

Cestmir Marcek -- 5,150
Girish Girsh -- 3,640
Pierce Gaskell -- 3,060


Contenders

Perry Mockler -- 2,520
David Alvarez -- 2,475
----------------------------
Thiago Herrera -- 2,350


Long Shots

Roger Federer -- 2,190
John Condon -- 2,080
Perry Hogue -- 2,075
Marcelo Herrera -- 2,070
Mugur Kinczllers -- 1,920


Outlook

Anil Mehul's place is secure of course, and Girsh's is near-certain also. There are a horde of possibilities at the bottom of the pile. Where the last couple spots go is anybody's guess right now -- it could be quite a chaotic, dramatic finish if things stay this tight.

[Brian Swartz]

July/August

The post-Wimbly break didn't have much activity as usual. Girish Girsh did head off to the Washington 500(Hard) the week before the late summer Masters started up as he was low on matches and needed to sharpen up his game. He was the 2-seed, with no. 5 Gaskell the top seed. A collision in the final seemed basically inevitable, and if Girsh won he would move past the American into 5th in the rankings.

After a bye and three virtual walk-overs, he met another US player, Radek Smitala, in the semifinals. Smitala, more athletic and a brilliant hardcourt player, pulled the upset 7-6(8), 6-4 by relentlessly and ruthlessly attacking Girsh's second serve. It was not a horrendous loss, but still a rather large disappointment. Smitala went on to upset Gaskell in the final as well though, allowing Girsh to move up to 5th anyway.

The Canada/Cincinatti Masters are up next.

[Brian Swartz]

Canada Masters

In the third round, Girish Girsh had his first test, and almost didn't escape it. Mugur Kinczllers, who had beaten him at Madrid, almost stopped him short of the quarterfinals for the second time this year before Girsh completed a 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-1 comeback, taking the decisive third set in grand style. It is their first hardcourt meeting as professionals, and the Italian still holds a 5-3 overall edge due to winning all four juniors encounters.

Sadly, Benda stopped him for the third straight time after that, 7-5 in the third despite Girsh trying to hold out for winning chances. Another in a long line of quarterfinal exits. Anil Mehul got past Gaskell in straight sets for his quarterfinal after surviving a close tiebreak in the opening stanza. Benda was dismissed fairly routinely, getting only one break chance while Mehul converted both of his. That meant a final against Antonin Iglar. We've seen this movie before. Iglar was out to re-establish himself as the dominant player on hardcourts that we've seen him to be time and time again. Mehul won the first set, faded in the second, fell behind early in the third ... but rallied to even it at 2-all. From there things changed a bit, both players having opportunities, but this time it was the Czech who faded late, and Mehul snatched the title 6-3, 3-6, 7-5! It's his first hardcourt win against Iglar since Indian Wells way back in '40, three and a half years ago, breaking a 10-match losing streak.

It was a close one, and mostly Mehul just took his opportunities a little better and finished well after looking like he was beaten early in the final set. Still, it is not like Iglar to lose on hardcourts, and he looked strong coming into the final. Could his grip on the tour be weakening?


Cincinatti Masters

The next week, a near-repeat of Canada ensued. Girsh once again found trouble in the third round, getting through 6-4, 7-6(4) against Milan Farkas. He then won just four games against Iglar in the quarterfinals; certainly didn't seem to him that the world no. 1 has lost a step. That's 11 times they've played, and Girsh has yet to win.

Mehul had an even easier time, flattening a somewhat resurgent David Alvarez and then Cestmir Marcek to reach another final. This time, Iglar was able to get a little more consistent pressure on his serve, but both players misfired often on break chances, combining to convert just 3 of 25 opportunities. Mehul's opportunities were just as numerous but he was able to concentrate them more effectively, and he won another evenly-played match, 6-4, 7-6(5)!!

That takes the Masters Shield count for the year to four, tripling his career count to six of them with Iglar, Benda, and Marcek each having one each(two more to go). That's a rather astonishing turn of events, as is this: he now trails the long-unreachable Iglar by just 680 points in the rankings. If he makes the USO final in three weeks' time, and Iglar fails to win it, or if Mehul manages to repeat his successes here and take the title, he will ascend to the throne of #1 player in the world. It is now, unexpectedly, within his grasp.

Normally I don't do this until after the USO, but under the circumstances I thought I'd update the top of the Race rankings:

Anil Mehul -- 8,560
Bjorn Benda -- 7,940
Antonin Iglar -- 7,910

Nobody else is relevant. There's a long way to go, but Mehul has seized the pole position and has a very legitimate chance now to end the year as number one. I didn't think he would ever get this close to it. Iglar, who could just have easily have won these past two weeks as lost them, now has to answer to a real challenger, something he hasn't really had. He's still the best player, but he's not finished well too often this year and if he doesn't answer the bell now, it will be too late.


Elsewhere ...

Prakash Mooljee's unbeaten singles year continues as he topped all opposition in his first tier-2 futures to move into the Top 500. In a clay event in Switzerland, it was hometown opposition in the form of 5-seed Hein Fehrenbacher that provided the stiffest opposition, this time anticlimactically in the quarterfinals. Mooljee survived as he has all year, 7-5, 2-6, 7-6(2), recovering from a poor middle set. He'll now be playing tier-1 futures until he reaches the Top 200, at which point he'll jump to challengers. Possibly even sooner than expected, at the rate he's going.

[Brian Swartz]

2043 US Open

Girish Girsh is back down to 6th, as Pierce Gaskell leapfrogged him by making the Cincy semifinals. Practically speaking this is irrelevant, but it would be nice to put the American in the rearview mirror decisively.

Girsh had his first potential slipup in the third round. He had a chance to go deep here, but there were some landmines beginning with Olav Birkeland, who beat him in three out of four meetings last year, contributing to Girsh's slow start in '52. This was their first encounter this year, and while it was close at first he pulled through in straight sets, 7-6(5), 7-6(2), 6-2. Bullet dodged. Then came Radek Smitala, who had taken him down just a few weeks ago in the Washington semis. It's the third contest between this pair, all this year, with Girsh's win coming in a tough four-setter back in the Australian Open quarters. He cruised through in straight sets for some revenge of a sort. Meanwhile, upsets allowed Anil Mehul to finish out the first week without so much as playing a Top-20 opponent. Only one of his matches was even remotely competitive.

And so both players reached the real stage without the loss of a set. Girsh had a big opportunity going up against Cestmir Marcek. The next big goal for him was to reach 4th, and Marcek is the man holding that spot, nearly 2k ahead in the points. He's been remarkable, and remarkably consistent despite having somewhat inferior skills. It didn't start out well for Girsh, dropping the first and third sets, but once he found his footing he was clearly the better player. After a topsy-turvy match that went the distance, he found himself standing at the end 3-6, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3, 6-3. Meanwhile, Mehul got by Gaskell routinely in straight sets, aided by the top-ranked US player having overplayed fairly criminally coming in.

In the semifinals, Girsh had his dozenth meeting with Antonin Iglar. He started off well, stealing the first set and having a number of chances in the second, but the world no. 1 pulled it out and asserted himself from there out for a 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 final. Still, it was the first set the Czech had dropped here, and more fight than Girsh has showed in most of their matches. He's getting there, but there's still work to do. On the other side, Mehul went up against Bjorn Benda. Who else? The German's strong form of recent months continued, but it wasn't enough; Mehul remained perfect, 6-4, 7-6(5), 6-4. It really wasn't that close, other than the fact that Benda did just enough with his serve to hold consistently.

And so the highly anticipated final arrived. The 28th meeting between Iglar and Mehul, the legend holding a rather one-sided 19-8 edge but three of the last four had not gone his way. The winner would be ranked #1 in the world. For the first time in the nearly three years since he took the top spot, Iglar had to defend it.

Mehul was down a break early in the first and lost it, but got on top right away in the second to strike back. Message sent: this would be no easy road for the champ. At 4-2, he saved one BP at 15-40 but not the second, and Iglar got things back on serve. Then a disastrous game at 5-all handed the second set and most likely the match back to the four-time defending champion.

Mehul repeated his fast start, breaking quickly to start the third. He could still start a comeback if he stayed strong on his own service games. He cruised his way through this time, but certainly the legend would respond in the fourth set. And that's just what happened, Iglar held after two deuces in the opening game, then at 15-40 on his turn Mehul saved one break chance but double-faulted on the second. The count ran to 5-0, Iglar just a game away from the title, before he responded. One break down is one thing, two is too much and the second set reversal was the haunting key in a 6-4, 7-5, 1-6, 6-3 win for the Czech. Five straight US Open titles for him, and he narrowly retains the #1 spot at least for now.

As the rankings will show, the year-end #1 is still very much up for grabs however, something that hasn't been true at this point in the season for nearly a decade; either Alastra or Iglar has had a stranglehold on it for some time.

The uphill climb against Germany, a repeat of last year's final, is up next in the quarterfinals as the WTC resumes.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 26) -- 12,660

An 11th Slam title ties Iglar with Oliver Haresign for 4th, though his overall body of work is still a fair bit below the only American high on the all-time list. More immediately, his spot at #1 has never been under such threat, and he'll need a big finish to stay there.

2. Anil Mehul(SRI, 27) -- 12,460

So close ... but for now, he's still the hunter. I still can't believe he's almost taken the top spot. Earlier this year, I thought he was about to begin sliding. Not yet, clearly.

3. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 29) -- 9,670

A fine year overall, but it looks like he's going to finish third again.

4. Cestmir Marcek(CZE, 29) -- 7,310

He's been a bit more inconsistent the last few weeks, but Marcek nearly pulled off another semifinal at the USO before Girsh rallied. He certainly doesn't seem to be showing any major signs of coming back to earth.

5. Girish Girsh(SRI, 24) -- 5,910

A second Slam semifinal has him aiming ever-higher.

6. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 27) -- 5,430

Mismanagement strikes again. Already the cracks are showing, and Gaskell has probably already done his best work.

7. David Alvarez(ESP, 30) -- 4,285

A solid hardcourt run was probably enough to get him into the Tour Finals one last time.

8. Perry Mockler(USA, 27) -- 3,810

9. Thiago Herrera(PER, 26) -- 3,460

10. John Condon(PHI, 27) -- 3,255

Condon has gone all-in on his serve, now the best in the world, and it's paid off often enough to allow him to reach new heights. This is about as good as it's going to get for him, but it's been a pretty impressive year.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update


Anil Mehul -- 2nd singles(unchanged), 373rd to unranked doubles. Mehul's efforts are focused like a laser on the opportunity in front of him; getting to #1 would be the crowning achievement on a fine career.


Girish Girsh -- 6th to 5th singles, 374th to 385th doubles. Girsh is just three wins away from equaling last year's total, with plenty of action left. He's also the only player in the top dozen(Kinczllers at 13th) who is still getting demonstrably better. The gap to Marcek is still significant, and closing it at much as possible by the end of the year is job #1. Next year, he'll set his sights on the Big Three ...


Prakash Mooljee -- 698th to 461st singles, 1758th to 2174th doubles. The doubles results have stopped coming, he hasn't made it through qualifying lately, but that hardly matters. In singles, he still hasn't lost in 36 matches this year. It's just a case of getting enough points now, and he'll need to win a few more futures before making the challengers jump. It feels a smoother transition for him than Mehul and Girsh before him, partly because he's a little more athletic/developed, and partly because I learn a little bit each time I go through this. I'm still surprised at how smoothly it's gone though, he's been pushed a few times but so far, unbeaten in '43.


Manager Ranking -- 3rd(unchanged), 28.6k to 31.0k points. I'm pretty close behind #2 Hayato, and still expect to catch him by year's end.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the World Tour Finals
Post-USO Update


In

Antonin Iglar -- 9,910
Anil Mehul -- 9,760
Bjorn Benda -- 8,660
Cestmir Marcek -- 6,560

The race for year-end #1 could hardly be closer. When you add in the fact that two of three big remaining events(Tour Finals and Paris, the third is Shanghai) are to be played indoors, I figure it close to a 50-50 'coin-flip' proposition. Neither Iglar or Mehul can afford any slipups at this stage. Meanwhile, Marcek's overall body of work makes it impossible for him to drop out of the field at this point.


Probable

Girish Girsh -- 4,900
Pierce Gaskell -- 4,260
Perry Mockler -- 3,420


Girsh and Gaskell will qualify almost certainly; it's pretty much a matter of time. But after that, things are still very uncertain ...


Contenders


David Alvarez -- 3,240
--------------------------------
Thiago Herrera -- 3,160


Long Shots

Mugur Kinczllers -- 2,800
John Condon -- 2,760
Roger Federer -- 2,675
Radek Smitala -- 2,600
Perry Hogue -- 2,525
Marcelo Herrera -- 2,430


Outlook

It certainly appears that it will come down to two of Mockler, Alvarez, and Herrera getting in while the third is out, but all of the half-dozen long shots listed are still in it and particularly Kinczllers, Condon, and Smitala have been on the rise, playing their best tennis lately. It's rather remarkable to have a full 15 players still with a chance this late in the game, with less than two months until the field is finalized. Every week will shift things from here on out.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Quarterfinals
Germany(3rd) vs. Sri Lanka(10th), Clay

Monday: A. Mehul d. H. Oncken, 6-2, 6-0, 6-3
Tuesday: B. Benda d. G. Girsh, 6-2, 7-6(6), 6-3
Wednesday: H. Arendt/R. Waigel d. S. Ujjaval/R. Kuttikkad, 6-0, 6-1, 6-1
Thursday: B. Benda d. A. Mehul, 6-0, 6-2, 6-3
Friday: G. Girsh d. H. Oncken, 7-6(4), 6-3, 6-3

Germany defeats Sri Lanka, 3-2.

Well bummer. That was expected, but still disappointing. Sri Lanka is done for the year, second straight season we lose 3-2 to Germany on their best surface. Both nations keep their rankings(3rd and 10th respectively). A couple of noteworthy things were the new doubles team, a fairly short-lived thing but it's a result of both of our top players having reached the elite echelon where they are focusing on their singles games almost exclusively. They wouldn't have won anyway, but it would have been closer. Mehul's effort against Benda, the one possible upset that could have won it, was ... despicable. He just got annihilated. 49-23% in return points, lost 9 of 10 break points(all of his, six of seven that Benda had), just yikes. Ugly and then some. Can't remember the time he looked that bad, and it's a pretty terrible time for it to happen.

Both players will now prep for Shanghai in a little over three weeks. Mehul especially needs a big finish, now that he'll be losing out on some of his WTC points from last year.

Prakash Mooljee had another tier-2 Futures this week, this time on hardcourt in China. There were no available tier-1 events so that will have to wait a bit. He met an old 'friend', journeyman Lazlo Fazekas, in the semifinals. Again it went the distance. Fazekas' no-serve, all rally approach is both his greatest strength and weakness. He had multiple match points, including a triple in a second-set tiebreak, but couldn't close the door. His 16 double faults, and an identical number of aces from Mooljee, swung things in the younger player's favor and Prakash escaped again, 5-7, 7-6(6), 6-2 .. and then surrendered just a single game in an anticlimactic final. He still hasn't lost in 2043.

[Brian Swartz]

September

Shanghai is now underway. In the interim, there were a few relevant things that are worth mentioning. First up of course was the WTC Semifinals.

Germany played the US. On clay. For the fifth tie in a row. What in the heck, seriously?!? This time it wasn't enough though. Keyed by a doubles win by Dring/Challenger, the Americans came through 3-2, with Benda winning twice but it wasn't enough for the defending champions. Guess they didn't pay off enough linesmen or something. I'm kidding ... mostly. The odds of getting any one surface five times in a row are 1 in 4 to the 5th power, or 1 in 1024, otherwhise known as less than a tenth of a percent. At a certain point, it becomes more logical to believe in the conspiracy. On the other side, the Czech Republic smashed Austria 4-1, surprising basically nobody. So it's the top two nations in the rankings going at it for the title at the end of the year. While we sit at home and watch. Grrr.

But anyway, that was followed by Girish Girsh playing the China Open(500) where he was the #2 seed. Marcek was on the top line, but was upset by Mockler in the semifinals. Perhaps he is falling off a bit? In any case, Girsh looked like he was about to have one of those days in the quarters against Agustin Herrera, dropping the first set at the end before rallying to crush his foe, 5-7, 6-3, 6-1. He woke up in time, but still not a good performance. He thumped Farkas, then beat Mockler in a close straight-sets final to claim his third 500 title. A good week, as he continues to work on narrowing the gap to Marcek.


Shanghai Preview

Mehul has dropped to 400 points behind Iglar, twice what it was a few weeks ago after the USO, due to events in the World Team Cup. He was a finalist last year so the only way he makes up any ground is by winning, or a nearly- unthinkable early loss by the legend. Girsh lost in the third round; this is his best chance to gain more territory probably for the rest of the year. Prakash Mooljee will be in action again, a tier-2 event as once again there were no tier-1s. Due to the timing of tournaments, it looks like it may take him a bit longer than expected to graduate from the futures level, but so long as he keeps winning there is no risk, it's just a matter of time. Patience, my young prodigy.

[Brian Swartz]

Shanghai Masters

Both players waltzed into the quarterfinals having given up no more than two games in any set. Once there, things got much more difficult. Girish Girsh had another chance to gain ground on Marcek, and like a month ago at the US Open, he came from behind to do so, 3-6, 6-2, 6-4. Anil Mehul had a fairly strange match with Radek Smitala, and was on the losing end of a stunning 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 upset. It was an even match with Mehul not nearly as impressive as he had been in most contests recently, and the servers dominated except for break chances, of which only one failed. Smitala was 3-for-3, Mehul had three chances as well and missed on one of them, which was ultimately the difference in the match.

Girsh had his 13th encounter with Iglar in the semifinals, pushing the no. 1 to three sets before losing. He's taken a set in their last two meetings now, and was the only player to so -- the Czech beat Gaskell in straight sets in the final -- so the gap appears to be closing but it's still a completely one-sided affair so far.

Mehul's early loss puts a big damper on his hopes to gain the #1 spot. It may in fact turn out to be a fatal one. He almost never loses to players out of the Top 10, and he clearly picked a bad day against a guy who has been great on hardcourts esp. this year to not bring his best play.

[Brian Swartz]

October

The two-week gap between Shanghai and Paris always has a bit of action. Girsh took both weeks off, while Anil Mehul headed to the Swiss Indoors(500). He blasted his way through all opposition easily until the final, when 3rd-seed Roger Federer became the second player to stun him in three weeks. Mehul was by far the better player on the day(110-99 total points) but still lost 3-6, 7-6(7), 7-5. Another chance to pick up points in the rankings was denied here. He's not playing bad by any stretch, but not playing like a #1 player either.

Previously, Prakash Mooljee had been out for another Tier-2 futures and this time his winning streak finally came to an end at 42 matches on the year(and more at the end of last year). Japan's Shogo Ko, just barely ranked low enough to play in futures and formerly ranked 30th in the world before age(32 years old) caught up with him, was really playing down here and thumped Mooljee in the final, 6-2, 6-0. Ko is more properly a decent challenger-level player, and Mooljee is better than he showed in this match but at the same time it's a bit of a reality check after the unvarnished string of successes. It definitely seems sensible to keep playing a few more futures events until he can't anymore, and continue improving ahead of making the jump to the next level.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the World Tour Finals Standings
Pre-Paris Update

Once again we are down to Paris to finalize the field, and there is still some drama left at the top despite Mehul's recent stumbles ...

In

Antonin Iglar -- 10,960
Anil Mehul -- 10,090
Bjorn Benda -- 8,840
Cestmir Marcek -- 6,920
Girish Girsh -- 5,610
Pierce Gaskell -- 5,000

The year-end #1 is completely in Iglar's control now ... well, sort of. If Mehul wins Paris and sweeps the World Tour Finals, he would temporarily take at least a 30-point lead and become #1 ... until the World Team Cup Finals a couple weeks later at which point he would lose it. So for Mehul to finish out the year on top, he will need some help. Winning both events will require his best, but it is possible. Iglar is a bit fresher and still probably the best indoor player in the world, but Mehul was a bit run-down at the end of the last year and still won the WTF so he can do it. The odds are just really against him right now, the losses in Shanghai and the Swiss Indoors really hurt, and it is possible they along with the USO Final could come back to haunt him if he never gets over the hump and Iglar goes on another dominant streak next year, which is very possible. Time will tell, but taking the Paris/WTF double would keep him very much in the hunt at a minimum, just behind the Czech legend.

Further down the list, Girsh really should be at worst the #3 player in the world indoors and big results at Paris and the WTF are key for him in closing the gap on Cestmir Marcek, setting himself up for a big season next year. The Czech no. 2 will fall eventually but sooner is better than later. Gaskell's run to the Shanghai final has him hanging around too close for comfort as well ...

Of the half-dozen who are confirmed at this point, five were there last year. Girsh is the lone new face so far. Benda is making his 6th straight appearance, Iglar his 5th, and it's the fourth in a row for Mehul. It's the third for Marcek who has never made it past the round-robin stage, while Gaskell is back for his second attempt as a surprise semifinalist last year.


Probable

Perry Mockler -- 3,720

Mockler did not win a match in his first trip last year, but looks like a pretty safe bet to at least get back for another try.


Contenders

Thiago Herrera -- 3,300
----------------------------
David Alvarez -- 3,195
Radek Smitala -- 3,050

Here's where it gets interesting. Alvarez looked a safe bet to make his 4th appearance(three straight round-robin exits) a couple of months ago. It appears however that his manager, who also handles Perry Hogue, has decided to exit stage left instead of reloading with younger players. Both Hogue and Alvarez skipped both Shanghai and Paris, meaning that Alvarez won't even be trying to pick up the points he needs to get back into the field. Herrera is the beneficiary, seemingly positioned very well to make his first appearance. But he doesn't have it sewn up yet ... Smitala's late charge has him positioned well enough to keep some pressure on, though he'll have to at least make the semifinals on a surface he isn't particularly proficient at, which would seem unlikely.

Long Shots

Roger Federer -- 2,935
John Condon -- 2,850
Marcelo Herrera -- 2,780
Mugur Kinczllers -- 2,750

To have any chance at all, these guys need to make the final. They haven't been eliminated yet, but the odds of them getting through the top indoor players in the world are remote. You can see here how competitive it's been below the top half-dozen players(everyone after Gaskell) this year. One week left and there are still eight players active, vying in some fashion for the final two qualifying positions. Particularly here in the 'not-quite-there' listing, they are bunched together so closely as to be indistinguishable. Regardless of what happens in Paris, it will be fascinating to see which of these players steps forward, and which falls back, as next year arrives.

[Brian Swartz]

Paris Masters: Opening Rounds

The first casualty of the week was obvious and has already been mentioned: by virtue of not showing up, David Alvarez was culled from the list of potentials. The others candidates, and a few who aren't, waited during their first-round bye. The second round here is always ripe territory for upsets, and a couple more long-shots went down during their initial matches this year. First, qualifier Xavier Camina(POR) defeated John Condon 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-3, then another qualifier, Sweden's Manfred Borrman, knocked Mugur Kinczllers out of contention by a 7-5, 7-6(1) final. The drawmakers were kind to Perry Mockler, who became the 7th player to qualify, partly because of his second-round win but more because most of the other players still alive were clustered on the opposite side of the draw.

Third Round Preview

All of this leaves four players, half of what there were just two days ago, still chasing one spot. Thiago Herrera holds it for now, and will keep it barring a deep run by one of the others: Smitala, Federer, and Marcelo Herrera. Here's how the matchups look for the round of 16.

** Girish Girsh vs. Marcelo Herrera -- An opportunity for Girsh to thin the ranks further. He was a bit shaky in the second set of his first match here, but is fresher than Herrera and should be able to prevail easily.

** Perry Mockler vs. Radek Smitala -- This is probably basically a coin-flip. Smitala will have to reach the final, and this is the last match that he has a decent chance at winning. It's a big mountain to climb even if his athleticism allows him to overcome his slightly more skilled counterpart in this All-American clash.

** Cestmir Marcek vs. Roger Federer -- Marcek was a 2nd-round upset victim last year, so he's already exceeded that performance. Federer has looked very good the last couple of weeks and has a fine serve; it would not be shocking at all to see him continue his run here.

** Thiago Herrera vs. Xavier Caminha -- Herrera is holding all the cards, and has the easiest matchup. I expect him to win here and put even more pressure on the trio chasing him.

[Brian Swartz]

Paris Masters: Third Round

Girsh started things out with a masterful performance, crushing Marcelo Herrera with a two-breadstick thumping. He won 55% of his return points, allowing only seven on his own serve, and another hopeful crashed out. It was a pattern that would repeat throughout the day. Smitala lost routinely to Mockler, ending his run. Roger Federer did better against Marcek, but his serve was much less effective than usual allowing him to get surprisingly out-aced 16-7, and he converted only 1 of 7 break points. As a result, he dropped a close match 7-6(6), 6-3. With that, Thiago Herrera didn't need to do anything to confirm his place as the final qualifier, but he brushed aside Caminha anyway as all eight of the top seeds reached the quarterfinals.

The Race is over, but I did notice one thing. I forgot that the points from last year's Tour Finals don't drop off for another week after Paris. Practically speaking, this means that Mehul will become #1 for that week and that week only if he wins the title. Cheap? Possibly. But I'd still take it. Just barely getting there would be better than not making it at all! With all of the best players still alive for the moment, the possibility is still there but much work remains.

[Brian Swartz]

Paris Masters: Conclusion

The biggest matchup of the quarterfinals was Girish Girsh going up against Benda, looking to snap a four-game losing streak against the German and a reprise of his first win, which came in a tight 3-setter in the same round of the same event last year. This one went all his way, an easy 6-2, 6-4 victory in which he not only clearly controlled the match, but saved all seven break points he faced. Anil Mehul had a strange one, jumping out quick against Mockler and bageling him in a 30-minute first set, only to have to endure a tiebreak in the second to advance. And Antonin Iglar almost bowed out early, barely surviving a very surprising challenge from Gaskell, 4-6, 6-2, 7-6(7).

It looked like that might have been the one vulnerable match for the week from the no. 1; he was much sharper in the next round, dispatching Girsh for the 14th straight time, 6-1, 7-5. Meanwhile, Mehul had break point problems against Cestmir Marcek. Despite a convincing performance overall, he endured 23 aces from the 4th-ranked Czech and snuck through by the narrowest of margins, 7-6(4), 6-7(8), 7-6(3). Way too close for comfort, with only 2 of 11 break chances converted. He won, but that could easily have been disastrous.

And yep, it was another Iglar vs. Mehul final. 29th meeting. Despite fatigue, it was probably Mehul's most convincing win, his 9th in their series, 6-1, 3-6, 6-1! Quite one-sided overall, he had only break chance against him which Iglar took to get the second set, but otherwhise controlled quite easily by Mehul. It's his 7th Masters Shield overall and 5th this year, leading to ...

http://i.imgur.com/UHntTqE.png



I don't normally do screenshots in this thread, but there it is! Anil Mehul can now happily retire if he didn't win another match. #1 in the world, over a player that is far from done but would be considered at worst 5th-best all-time in the history of the sport. I didn't think he had much chance of ever getting this far(and I'd be quite annoyed if I were managing Iglar, still a much better player just having a subpar year). It'll go away in a week, but if he takes another perfect run through the Tour Finals I think he'll keep it into the new year no matter what happens in the WTC.

It's a heck of a thing. The World Tour Finals start in two weeks. Mehul's goal is to repeat as champion; Girsh would be happy with getting out of the round-robin stage and making the semifinals -- anything beyond that would be gravy in his debut.

[law90026]

Congrats!

[digamma]

That's pretty cool.

[ntndeacon]

Nice!

[Brian Swartz]

Thanks all!

World Tour Finals Preview

As anticipated, Mehul dropped down to second again ahead of the Tour Finals. He needs to repeat last year's title to take the top spot back, and that will probably be a little more difficult this time around, since Iglar is not the only potential roadblock. Girish Girsh is nearly at his level and could provide an upset; the rest of the field should not be a major threat on an indoor court.

Draw

It didn't really matter all that much where Girsh was slotted in the grand scheme of things; Mehul would almost certainly have to play him anyway. If he was in the same pool it would be during the round-robin phase; if it was in Iglar's pool then he would be the most likely semifinal opponent. As it turned out, Mehul's side had Marcek, Gaskell, and Mockler; Iglar would face Benda, Girsh, and Herrera. Probable semifinalists are Mehul and Marcek/Gaskell, Iglar and Girsh/Benda. Based on the Paris results, I like Girsh's chances. And if everything goes according to the script, another Mehul-Iglar final will determine the year-end #1 for 2043.

Quite the dramatic way to end the season, if it works out that way.

[Brian Swartz]

The week before the WTF, Prakash Mooljee was in Zimbabwe for his first tier-1 futures. He continues to falter in doubles, possibly due to weak partners, but blasted his way through without serious challenge to take the singles crown in his first attempt at this level of event. He's now well inside the Top 300 and will probably have one more futures tournament to round out the year.


2043 World Tour Finals

Round-Robin Stage

The first couple of days went more or less as expected. Girish Girsh had a long first-set tiebreak and overall a tougher time than expected with Herrera but won in two, then lost to Iglar, setting up the critical match with Benda on day three. Anil Mehul got through Mockler and Marcek in fairly routine fashion, but so did Gaskell and the winner there would take the second pool.

Girsh got off to a great start, taking the first set easily ... and then basically stopped playing in the second while Benda rallied. The third was much more highly contested, but the pressure from the German was more consistent and eventually Girsh faded, losing 1-6, 6-1, 6-4. A pretty darn severe disappointment here, a matchup he should win almost every time on an indoor court and especially after dominating the first set -- this was not at all the time to get cocky which seemed to be the case. It was quite the cruddy way to end his season. As for Mehul, he broke Gaskell immediately but the Americans' only break chance came in the very next game, evening the match. Mehul would have more opportunities but couldn't convert any, winning anyway in two tiebreak sets but he had to work for it a lot more than he should have.


Semifinals

So it was the same four-some as last year, the top three in Iglar, Mehul, and Benda followed by Gaskell as party-crasher. I don't know what it is about this event -- he has yet to reach the semis at any Slam, and isn't a big indoor player by any stretch, but he's done well here. In any case, Iglar brushed him aside as expected. Mehul had a poor stretch in the second set, leading to a scoreline that somewhat belied the fact that he was well in control almost all day against Benda, winning 6-1, 3-6, 6-2.


Finals

It would have seemed wrong if it didn't come down to this. Antonin Iglar vs. Anil Mehul. Their 30th meeting. The winner would be the top-ranked player of 2043, regardless of what happened in the WTC Finals. And this time the match was worthy of such an occasion. It played to form as both players were fairly sharp. Iglar had by far the better serve(18-6 in aces), Mehul getting the best of things by a small margin when he could keep the ball in play. Both converted pretty well when they had the chance, about half of the break chances each.

The Czech legend took a long opening set, then the second went to a tiebreak and Mehul prevailed. In the decider, he seized on the momentum and pushed his way to a hard-fought 5-7, 7-6(3), 6-4 decision, a match that could have gone either way though he was a hair better. The second-set tiebreak is really what it came down to. That and Mehul was really able to punish Iglar's second serve much more than usual, allowing him just 3 points in 17 tries! It looked like the longtime champion was just a bit off at times, just enough to create an opening.

And so one whale of a year for Anil Mehul ends with him on top of the heap. Rather fitting that it came down to the very end, a decisive third set in the final match of the year. It's been a long time, probably a decade or more, since the World Tour Finals hosted such drama. It's a narrow gap at the top, just 280 points(just over 2% of his total), but he'll stay there longer than a week this time. I'll get into the details more at the end of the year, but I would expect the stay to be a few months, and it could possibly be longer. It depends how Antonin Iglar reacts to being deposed.

Only four players have won the World Tour Finals more times than the two trophies now held by each of this years finalists. Will one of them join that elite group next year, or will someone else step up and take it from them? Meanwhile, the final tournament also showcased the biggest difference between Mehul and Girsh; the former has if anything been a slight overachiever in his career, while the younger player seems to falter against quality competition more often than not. The final chapters are far from being written, but he certainly doesn't seem to possess the same killer instinct, and is quickly running out of time to demonstrate it.

The World Team Cup Finals with the USA and Czech Republic competing for the championship will be up next in a couple of weeks, and the end-of-year spam comes a couple weeks after that.

[digamma]

Long live Mehul!

[Brian Swartz]

2043 WTC Wrap-Up

The finals between the United States and the Czech Republic were played on grass this year went right down to the wire. Iglar won his two matches as you'd expect, but the US won the doubles which set up a final decisive rubber between Cestmir Marcek and Perry Mockler. Mockler had the better of it during the rallies, but not by enough. He came from two sets down to force a fifth, but ultimately Marcek's 33 aces(to just 11 for the American), were enough to see him through in as dramatic a final rubber as you could ask for, 7-6(1), 6-4, 4-6, 4-6, 8-6. Mockler actually won three more total points(171-168) in the four-hour marathon that could have gone either way.

So the Czech Republic wins it 3-2, claiming their second world championship in three years! The United States last won four years ago, a pretty long drought for one of the world's most dominant tennis nations.


Playoffs

On the other end of the spectrum there was the specter of one of the world's greats(Spain, ranked 5th) having to fight off a relegation playoff challenge from New Zealand(24th). The Spaniards are definitely not what they once were; the nation of Gorritepe and so many other great players will soon not even have a top-10 player. New Zealand is still far beneath them though, and lost it's second promotion attempt in three years, 4-1.

Elsewhere the other playoff contestants were all borderline types of nations.

** Croatia(19th) vs. Denmark(17th). Both were Level 1 nations so somebody was going down here. The main difference is that Denmark has Jens Petersen(31st), the lone top-70 player on either nation's roster. That was enough to eke out a 3-2 win and keep the Danes up for a 5th straight year. They have yet to get out of the group stage, and this was their second relegation battle survived by the narrowest of margins, but the stay at the top tier. Croatia is relegated for the first time in over a decade, a long-term mainstay up here but they are in serious decline and frankly don't belong anymore.

** Luxembourg(16th) vs. Russia(13th). This one should have been no contest. With Groneveldt out of the picture, Luxembourg has nothing while Russia has a pair of quality experienced players with veterans Pavel Bestemianov(27, 22nd) and Fedor Starovoitov(26, 28th). A long way are they from guys like Topolski and Goncharenko, but more than enough to have Russia at the top tier. It was just a 3-2 win for the Russians which raises some eyebrows, but they survive a second straight playoff while Luxembourg is on the other side of that coin, failing in their second straight.

** Sweden(12th) vs. Netherlands(20th). A total whitewash here, 5-0 skunking by Sweden. Olav Birkeland(18th) is enough to promote them by himself, and they belong in the top tier. Not to mention that Elias Trulsen(24, 32nd) is starting to make a name for himself as well. The Netherlands did well just to get to this stage, they really arent' Level 1 quality.

Outlook

Sweden moves up, Croatia moves down. This definitely strengthens the Level 1 grouping of nations.

[Brian Swartz]

2043 Final Top Ten Rankings

The page has now turned to a new year, which actually doesn't arrive until next week but all that is going on right now are futures and junior events that have no impact.

1. Anil Mehul(27, SRI) -- 12,540

After going 2-7 against Iglar in '42, Mehul shocked everyone including himself by winning four of six meetings this past year. It was just enough. He's spent five weeks now as #1, with more to come hopefully. It's good to be the king ...

2. Antonin Iglar(27, CZE) -- 12,410

Talk about your narrow margins. Just over 1% of total points earned by Mehul separates the two players. Unfortunately for Iglar, he won a 250, then won the Australian Open, and Mehul didn't do well in the early hardcourt Masters last year. In other words, most of his chances to pick up points and regain the top spot will come in April or later. It would take a fairly major turn of events to make it happen before then, such as Mehul failing to make the AO final. Both players are just starting to decline, but they have a lot yet to achieve.

Iglar is now in a big group of players with 2 WTF titles as mentioned tied for 5th all-time; tied for 4th in Slams with Haresign at 11; 5th in Masters with 18 after not picking up as many as expected last year; and 6th in weeks at #1 with 157, and of course he's not adding to that number right now. At this moment his career, despite the best year ever posted, non-Gorritepe category, would rank him 5th all-time. He has a good chance of reaching at least 4th and surpassing Oliver Haresign, but it was definitely a disappointing year for him. He's capable of going on another several-month unbeaten stretch and reasserting his dominance. But does he have the will and confidence to do so? This is one of the biggest questions in the new year.

3. Bjorn Benda(29, DEU) -- 9,570

The gradual decline continues, and it was not a young challenger but rather the new surprise #1 who shocked the tennis world by snatching away his kingdom on clay, though Benda had the last laugh in regaining his Roland Garros crown. When he plays well, he's still the world's best on the dirt.

4. Cestmir Marcek(29, CZE) -- 7,530

The dramatic WTC final was the crowning achievement to a remarkable season. Marcek reached the apex of his career at a time when most are, and when he should have been, falling off. There's still no question his skills are eroding, but through sheer willpower and competitive spirit he refused to cooperate with Father Time. There were signs the last few months that he was receding again, but also more fantastic moments. The question for Marcek is, can he keep this up somehow, or will he fade into the sunset this year?

5. Girish Girsh(24, SRI) -- 6,030

Steady progress for Girsh, who was a quarterfinalist or semifinalist in every major event save the WTF and Rome Masters -- but did not make a single final. If he's ever going to reach the top, he has to start slaying the occasional giant. No question he's the standard-bearer for Generation Flash, but how good that standard will be is still very much an open question.

6. Pierce Gaskell(27, USA) -- 5,630

Perenially overplayed and somewhat undearchieveing, I think we've seen the best of America's current #1. He's still much better than anyone below him though, so I don't see him falling much in '44.

7. Perry Mockler(27, USA) -- 3.900

Still the best of the 'third tier'(Mehul/Iglar/Benda then Marcek/Girsh/Gaskell are the first two), Mockler nearly won the WTC for the Americans but was 0-9 in big quarterfinals this year. That about says it all for him, both in being good enough to get there, and not good enough to get any farther.

8. Thiago Herrera(26, PER) -- 3,480

9. Radek Smitala(26, USA) -- 3,140

Smitala is the rare player who has a manager that knows not to overplay him, and he's a hardcourt fiend who is still on the rise, reaching the Top 10 for the first time late in the year. He's one to watch, and could also be a force on clay next season.

10. David Alvarez(30, ESP) -- 3,055

Waving goodbye. Federer, M. Herrera, Condon, or Kinczllers will soon take his place. It doesn't really matter which, they cycle through and around each other but nobody has managed to separate themselves.

[Brian Swartz]

2044 WTC Preview

Sri Lanka ends the year 10th in the world rankings, up three spots from last year. A quarterfinal exit stunted a more sizable rise, and we're hoping for better this year. After looking at the draw though, that will take some considerable luck.

Sri Lanka is in the this season's group of death, Group 3. We'll have to deal with #1 Czech Republic, defending world champions, and #3 Germany, who knocked us out last season. They better not have clay when we play them, is all I have to say. The fourth in this group is recently promoted Sweden, ranked 12th and no slouch.

Merely getting out of group play could well get dicey. The Czechs will probably beat us, Sweden should go down pretty easily -- it is likely to come down to us or Germany. Looking ahead, we get them in the second round ... on grass. Thank goodness. I like our chances there, but it's absolutely ridiculous that either us or them won't even make it out of the group stage. I like us to finish second behind the Czechs, which will mean facing a tough quarterfinal(but, if it works out that way, NOT Germany on clay which has been our fatal matchup the last two years).

In the other groups:

** The US(2nd) will walk through Mexico(8th) and Denmark(17th) but could be tested by rising Peru(11th).

** Serbia(25th) will get blasted by an interesting trio vying for two places: Argentina(4th), Spain(5th), and Austria(6th)

** The final group has no real powers, and showcases the fact that we need to get our ranking up a few more spots to avoid a repeat of this year's unpleasantness. France(7th), Italy(9th), Russia(13th), and Switzerland(15th). I have no idea who comes out of there. All of them have a chance to advance -- or end up having to go to the playoffs.


I'd love to switch places with anyone in that 4th group. It's a rather paradoxical scenario in which we have the #1 and #5 players in the world -- but the rankings favor us to lose in group play. We need a big year to stop that nonsense, and could easily be up to 4th or 5th at worst if we get it. The nations above us are packed together tightly -- we're just not quite there yet.

[Brian Swartz]

One note I forgot to mention. Last week Prakash Mooljee blasted through a tier-2 futures event, pushed to a third set in the final by unseeded Hungarian Florian Berenyi before winning 6-1, 3-6, 7-6(2) in a rather strange match. He finishes the year with just the one blemish, and is starting to approach the Top 200 barrier.


Who's Got Next?

In terms of action on the court, Sri Lanka and Sweden meet up in the first round of the World Team Cup to start off the new year next week. But before that, it's time to look at the next generation for the first time. So far in this dynasty, we've covered the following groups:

** The Eric Gorritepe generation, a generation unto himself for the greatest to ever play. He was just fading away as I started.

** Headlined by Gabriel Alastra but with many other standouts such as Prieto, Elder, and so on, this was the most competitive group I've seen.

** Bjorn Benda was next along with players such as Hogue and Alvarez who came with him.

** Currently, it's Antonin Iglar and Mehul taking the press, with Pierce Gaskell worth noting as well from the same age group. Julian Hammerstein is a notable no-show that would have made this quite a strong trio at the top.

** What I've dubbed 'Generation Flash' -- high on style, low on substance -- is led by my own player, Girish Girsh. Kinczllers is coming along for the ride but with phenom flak-out Marcel Bahana long-gone from the scene, this is a rather astonishingly weak group of players on the whole. A group Girsh should dominate, and has the last couple of years with Bahana's exit. Maybe France's Davide Poilblan comes around to do something, but he seems mired at about 20th.

A sixth generation is now just beginning to make their presence felt. Girsh is now 24, so these players will be those who are about 21-22 right now. Mooljee isn't old enough to be counted as one of them ... his place will come in the 7th gen. However, I would be remiss if I did not point out the ridiculous achievements of Hector Deblock(ROU), the top junior in Mooljee's class, who is still a teenager and presently ranked 73rd in the world. It will bear watching whether his early success can continue. If so, he might well be scary good. But we'll wait and see on that.

Generation Next

I'll just call this next group of early-20s hopefuls this for lack of a better unifying term. There's always a group of a dozen or two in their early 20s or younger in the Top 100 -- the question is, are any of them any good to the point of potentially being champions? Here's how things look right now, a week before the new year begins.

** Andre Herrera(22, PER, 8.75). It's hard to keep track of all the Herrera's, and they all hail from Peru. Andre is presently the top-ranked player from this generation, and also one of the oldest. He's #25 in the world right now, strong but slow with respectable technical skills. I figure him as a run-of-the-mill Top 10 player down the line. A lot of the Herrera's grade out that way.

** Theodore Bourdet(22, FRA, 9.04). Bourdet is right behind in 26th, an incredibly gifted player who isn't dedicated enough and needs to pay more attention to his baseline play, but already a world-class serve and strong mental approach. He has somewhat limited upside due to the issue of not training enough, but is already good enough to be a threat to some top 10 players. He'll be in the mix.

** Afasny Bereznity(21, RUS, 9.02). Just shy of his 22nd birthday, Bereznity presently ranks 31st. I've mentioned him briefly a couple times before: he probably will take a spot on Russia's WTC roster sometime this year. Good-but-not-great across the board(endurance, athleticism, technical skill, mental toughness, etc.). A top-5 player if he's well-handled, he should have more longevity than most of these guys. Could be the standard-bearer.

** Zourab Adronikov(21, GRG, 8.9). Andronikov pushed himself onto my radar late last year, consistently beating up on run-of-the-mill journeymen in the early rounds of big tournaments. He's up to 39th, a sharp rise for him and starting to get more and more respect and hype. Adronikov is an elite prospect when it comes to mental game and athleticism, but is raw still from a skill standpoint and not dedicated enough. He's a prototype disappointment waiting to happen. He's not being well-handled enough by a low-ranking manager to convince me that will change, but the athleticism and time for a young-ish player are enough that he could be Top 10 some day.

Those are the headliners right now, and my money's on Bereznity to give the Russians someone to cheer for again and be the best of this group. The also-rans include Peter Sampras(22, USA, #42), hyper-strong Spaniard Simon Davila(21, #56) has a chance to be a fine clay specialist if he ever develops a serve, George Elliot(22, USA, 59th), is a fine athlete with just enough will to win that he could be relevant. This looks like a reasonably deep group, but at the top I think it's Bereznity with a bunch of players chasing his cape so to speak.

Another American, Phillip Carter, could have done something but he's 'gone doubles' at an early age.

[Brian Swartz]

So in the middle of everything going on in the game and work IRL, etc., I completely forgot to sign any of my players up for practice events for the final week of the year. Sucks because I had a near-perfect year in terms of scheduling up to this point.

Ah well. Friendlies it is.

[Brian Swartz]

2044 has arrived!

Sri Lanka Annual Rankings Update

Anil Mehul -- 2nd to 1st singles. Well, there's nowhere to go but down. Chances of winning another five Masters this year aren't great, but clearly the goal here is stay on top for as long as possible, or at least as close to it. Realistically, I'll still be surprised if Iglar doesn't rebound with a strong year. At 73-9, he won four fewer matches than the previous year -- but more importantly, also lost four fewer and of course there were a lot more titles as well as repeating and Wimbledon and the World Tour Finals.


Girish Girsh -- 11th to 5th singles. Gradual improvement and Girsh should bypass Marcek and even probably Benda this year. This will probably be the season that he catches Mehul in terms of overall skill, but it remains to be seen if he can beat him when it counts on the court. A variety of unlikely events have resulted in nearly a two-year drought between meetings; Mehul has won all three. It seems inevitable that the two will start playing and bumping into each other on a more regular basis. Girsh has done well in the smaller events the last couple of years, but needs to become a threat to go all the way in the big ones to advance further. 65 wins was 10 more than his previous best.


Prakash Mooljee -- 1828th to 232nd singles, 2873rd to 2120th doubles. Doubles didn't go so hot, but Mooljee dominated in amateur and futures play on his own, with an astounding 52 wins and only one defeat. Sometime early this year we'll see how he handles the jump to challengers, but first up he'll get his Slam debut at the Australian Open in a few weeks. A great first year in the professional ranks, but he'll be stepping up to stiffer competition soon.


Anil Manohar -- 2324th to 2193rd singles, 574th to 499th doubles. Pretty good year, but the big news for Manohar is that this will be his last season on tour. He's up another .05 to 4.43 in the trainer evaluation, but will spend much of this year saving up the necessary experience to make the jump. He'll almost certainly stay in the 4.4-4.5 range, but progress is quite slow for him now and there's little reason for him to keep playing longer. Plus, it's just time for a new phenom with Mooljee established now as a tour player.


Manager Ranking -- 4th to 3rd, 25.6k points to 30.6k. Unexpectedly, hayato did just enough to stay ahead of me by about a thousand points at the moment. He's got a solid Top-10 player in Gaskell, and while Hammerstein would be better in singles he is now the world's #1 in doubles. Still, I should catch him soon.

[Alf]

Well done !

[Brian Swartz]

Thanks! It was a lot more interesting year than I expected it to be.

2044 Preview

1. Anil Mehul(89%, 9.85, - .02). A barely-perceptible decline continues ... but it sure didn't seem like it this year as he really rose to the occasion.

2. Antonin Iglar(89%, 10.2, -0.05). Still clearly the best on paper, especially after another good off-season of training. But can he get back to the level of dominance he once enjoyed, or is his confidence permanently shaken?

3. Bjorn Benda(84%, 9.67, -0.14) Even at almost 30, he's far from a pushover.

4. Cestmir Marcek(84%, 9.43, -0.09) No way he can beat the odds for another year ... right? I'd expect him to drop to sixth or so this year, but who knows.

5. Girish Girsh(95%, 9.8, +0.05) Continuing his gradual rise, but it's tough to improve much now.

6. Pierce Gaskell(88%, 9.79, +0.06) The top American will still be a factor.

The tiers are interesting right now. For all the 'weak era' talk, Gaskell, Girsh, and Mehul are really a very credible trio of challengers after Iglar. A weak era is still coming, but this is actually better(thanks mostly to my duo, frankly) than things looked a couple years ago with Benda, Iglar, and basically nothing. And the German is still quite relevant. But the depth after them, particularly if Marcek falls off -- it's quite lacking.

7. Perry Mockler(88%, 9.26, -0.07)

8. Thiago Herrera(90%, 9.28, +0.01)

9. Radek Smitala(89%, 9.29, ??) -- Smitala was 2043's 'veteran I didn't see coming'. Good for him. He really fits right in with the packed tier of Mockler, Herrera, and actually many others, but it's his hardcourt expertise that sets him apart from them in many events.

11. Roger Federer(90%, 8.94, +0.12) -- The lack of speed and mental game was exposed a fair bit this year, but he still has a chance to get back into the Top 10 at some point.

12. Marcelo Herrera(91%, 8.91, ??) -- Great strength, but equally poor tactics and consistency from the baseline. As a result, he's not as good as Thiago and is a long-shot to break into the first page.

13. John Condon(88%, 8.84, ??) -- The best serve in the game has made Condon a very hit-or-miss player, as he sorely lacking in rally ability, even more so than M. Herrera. He briefly jumped up to 9th, then crashed out again.

14. Mugur Kinczllers(94%, 9.17, ??) -- He's spent way too much time on his doubles game, but Kinczllers remains second-best in Girsh's age bracket, is decent in atheleticism/mentality with better technical skills than most of those close to him. Really should be Top 10 this year.

15. Gustavo Caratti(96%, 9.24, ??) -- Only average mentally, but he won't be under the radar for long. A few months younger than Girsh, Caratti looks poised to overcome Kinczllers for the #2 spot. If both of them reach the Top 10(they should), Generation Flash may finally lose some of it's stigma. Caratti is an outstanding athlete, but neither has what it takes to be a true challenger.

The next generation, which I looked at a few days ago, will see players like Bereznity, Bourdet, and Adronikov push their way into the Top 20 this year. 20th-ranked Frenchman Davide Poilblan(96%, 9.17) looks ready to push higher as well. We should see the group of players from roughly 8th to 20th get significantly better over the next year or so -- competition will be intense and they will make up to a degree in numbers what they lack in individual greatness and standout stars. I expect the divide between the Top 5 and the next 15 or so players after them will remain large. All of this figures to make it tough for those following after them to move up when it is their time. It's worth noting that Sri Lanka actually has a third player, created by another manager, who could have something to say here as well as he made it into the Top 100, (presently 108th), Shreya Ujjaval(100%, 8.64). Mismanaged though he's been to a degree and in severe need of an improved serve(it's no better than Mooljee's who is two years younger), Ujjaval is already almost good enough to be relevant. All of this could make things a little difficult in a year or two for Sri Lanka's next real star:

232. Prakash Mooljee(99%, 8.22, +0.95). Mooljee has just reached physical maturity, which will slow his progress; the next couple of years will be the most important for him in terms of scheduling and training. Still, after a year of seasoning at the challenger level he'll begin to be ready to challenge the kinds of players listed above, and right now it looks like it could be a formidable wall, a definite school of hard knocks for him.

2193. Anil Manohar(57%, 5.92, -0.22). The 41-year-old veteran is readying to sail off into the sunset. It's time.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Group Three, Round One
Sri Lanka(10th) vs. Sweden(12th), Hard

Monday: A. Mehul d. E. Trulsen, 6-3, 6-3, 7-6(4)
Tuesday: G. Girsh d. O. Birkeland, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2
Wednesday: A. Pirlo/J. Oberg d. S. Ujjaval/R. Kuttikad, 6-0, 6-3, 6-1
Thursday: A. Mehul d. O. Birkeland, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2
Friday: G. Girsh d. E. Trulsen, 3-6, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5

Sri Lanka defeats Sweden, 4-1!!

Surprisingly Trulsen proved the tougher singles foe; closing on his 29th birthday, it appears the days of Olav Birkeland being a major threat are behind him but the younger Swede could well be an interesting player to watch the next few years. Girsh was fortunate to rally after dropping the first two sets in the final rubber, but matters had already been decided.

As expected, Germany lost to the Czech Republic so our second-round matchup after the Australian Open with the nemesis of the last couple years will in fact determine who moves on. For the time being, we move up a couple spots to 8th, and there's a bit of a gap between us and France/Austria/Spain in the 5-7 spots so that's as far as we'll go until we get some more wins it appears. The nations behind us are bunched up pretty close, ready to pounce if we slip. Which we aren't planning on doing.

Coming Up ...

Both Mehul and Girsh will see some 250 action to get ready for the Australian Open, and some good competition in those events as well as the rest of the tour is gearing up for the year's first Slam also.

[Brian Swartz]

January

Both of our top two heroes needed more matches than usual to perform at their best for the initial Slam of the year, and so there was more on-court action in the interim. Girish Girsh headed out right away to the Qatar Open(2-seed). He easily ripped Federer and Condon en route to the final, where it was a more in-rhythm Cestmir Marcek that opposed him with a 200-point swing on the line(150 to the runner-up). The 8th meeting between the pair, and it's worth noting that despite the fact that Marcek leads in the rankings by better than a thousand points, his win-loss last year doesn't show it. The Czech no. 2 was 64-19, Girsh slightly better at 65-17 including a perfect 3-0 in their encounters after losing the first four. Better seeding and easier matchups by being part of the Top 4 for Marcek are the big difference. Despite the disadvantage in match conditioning, Girsh pulled through 7-5, 7-6(1) in a match that had neither player really taking their chances well.

The next week, he was back at it in Sydney. Same drill really. Pierce Gaskell dropped 6-1, 6-4, and Marcek much more routinely in another final now that Girsh was back on top of his game. A very impressive start to the year has him with a perfect 11-0 record and demonstrating that he is, at worst, 4th best in the world on the hardcourts. The Gaskell match, with the top American basically a near-even match in terms of overall skill and ability, was the most impressive in that regard.

Anil Mehul was in Auckland, where he smashed all comers comprehensively including Mockler in the final. It was his second title there in three years(he didn't play last year). Both times, the rankings were released without giving him credit for the title though!


Coming Up ...

Aside from the ranking snafu, a perfect start to the year. Three players go into the Australian Open unbeaten on the year(Iglar is the third). The form showed by both Sri Lankans was very impressive. A couple of other notes; my plan of having Prakash Mooljee participate for his first Slam has been changed. He could do so, and might be successful, but no good reason not to feast on another Tier-1 futures in Canada where his number of matches is much more guaranteed. Also, I'll be following the fortunes of another countryman not managed by me, as the exploits of Shreya Ujjaval this year will be relevant in terms of the World Team Cup in the long-term, and he's a third wheel in terms of Top 100 Sri Lanka players.

[Brian Swartz]

Before I get to the AO, as mentioned Prakash Mooljee had a tier-1 futures that same week. He managed to get to the semis in doubles, and unsurprisingly bashed through the singles basically unchallenged to move to just outside the top 200. He'll have one at most futures tournaments left, and will get to take over a month off now due to the doubles success. Depending on what's available in what will be early March, he also may take on his first challenger event at that point.

At the start of the year I forgot to take a look at the most probable rivals in his age brackets, which I intended to do. So I'll just throw that in here now. At just over 19 and a half, Mooljee can reasonably compared to others in the under-20 bracket. I'll list any of them currently in the Top 300. It's a quick-and-dirty way to do things, but will give a general sense of the top candidates which is really all that can intelligently be done at this early stage of things.

Hot-Shot Teen Prospects

62. Hector DeBlock(BEL). The dominant junior in Mooljee's class has shown why, and isn't slowing down so far. He's quite talented and has a better serve than almost anyone else his age but has hit the challenger wall hard at this point, able to win tier-2 and below events but not doing anything further up except for a bit on clay. DeBlock is a pretty good athlete and quite good mentally, but his stock relative to the rest of the group I think will fall as he's a quick-riser with the attendant limitation on longevity. The real shocker here is that he's gotten this far this fast, it's rare to see a teenager in the Top 100. For that reason alone he bears close watching.

142. Sava Cirakovic(CRO). Even more meteoric in terms of his career path, Cirakovic has not seen as much early success as DeBlock but he's still doing quite well. Stronger but less mentally tough, his dedication is very good and could see him ending up as the better player in the long run. Too early to tell yet.

182. Tristan Benitez(ARG). Weak but very quick, Benitez is a clay-court specialist and lacking in terms of the will to work on his game. Not a long-term threat in my opinion, but his baseline skill is as well developed as Mooljee's, and he's a few months younger.

183. Blagota Cojanovic(CRO). Fast, pretty dedicated, and strong mentally, Cojanovic is the first on this list that doesn't figure to flame out easily. I like Mooljee's game a fair bit better right now and he's even more committed so that advantage should increase, but Cojanovic should be a very relevant player in this age group if he's handled reasonably.

194. Jonathan Ardant(FRA). A poor man's Cojanovic basically, and managed by the same person. Most notably he's considerably slower and has lower endurance as well.

211. Prakash Mooljee(SRI). A pretty good place to be in, sixth on the rundown, and I definitely expect it to improve. I don't see a transcendent talent like Iglar or Bahana anywhere here; the third top Sri Lankan to come through my tutelage -- and I've learned much from the experience of the first two -- has a combination of endurance, athleticism, and technique that should eventually propel him past the others. Cojanovic is the one with the best chance, and DeBlock's early emergence will keep on top for a while, but I don't think either of them can stop Prakash once his skills are complete.

224. Gael Monfils(FRA). Strong and the most 'clutch' player I've literally ever seen(as in, 5.0 mentality!!), Monfils is also only average in footspeed and not a lot better in terms of working on the practice courts. Technically solid but not more ... he'll be around for a while but just doesn't quite have the total package.

And that's it. This group of seven is likely to bump into each other every now and then over the next couple of years in challengers, but that's just a prelude of course. It'll be interesting to watch how many of them actually make it through that trial.

[Brian Swartz]

2044 Australian Open

Preview

This isn't so much a preview of the Australian Open as it is one of how much of at least the first half of the year will play out at the big events. There's really two separate storylines going on. The first one gets the most press and hype, and is really pretty simple: Antonin Iglar trying to return to dominance, Anil Mehul fighting to hold on to the #1 ranking. They'll play only in the finals of big events, which means there's always going to be quite a bit on the line. With only a very small gap between them, any earlier loss will be very damaging as well. That's not something that is expected to happen much of course. And here, there's even more history than usual. Iglar is the four-time defending champion; Mehul has been his foe in the last match for the last three years.

The second group is the players in the third-sixth bracket; Benda, Marcek, Girsh, and Gaskell. The interesting thing here is that Benda and Marcek have the better draws being part of the Top 4, but Girsh and Gaskell are, on paper, better players and should be replacing the veterans. In the big events, a lot will depend on whether Girsh and Gaskell get placed in the quarter matchups against Mehul and Iglar, or in preferable opportunities to knock the declining stars down a peg and gain some ground. And if it's the latter, they'll need to consistently come through and win those matchups if they intend to move up.


Early Rounds

Shreya Ujjaval made this his second Slam event, having lost last year in the US Open first round despite twice leading by a set, a five-set epic that got his feet wet but left him disappointed. That was against a Bolivian journeyman nobody has heard of; here he faced 19-seed Agustin Herrera ... and promptly won in straight sets. Then Spanish veteran Issac Malpica went down in four. Mockler ended his run in the third round with the loss of only a game to put him in his place, but Ujjaval rocketed up about 20 spots in the ranking to a new career-high of 77th. With his first pair of Slam match victories, this is a great moment for him, definitely the best of his young career. It's not guaranteed he'll ever be good enough to get past a third-round berth in a Slam event, but even if he does this is worth remembering.

The first few rounds were the usual borefest for Mehul and Girsh. A couple of seeds made the elder player work just a bit but not much -- he reached the quarterfinals without coming close to losing a set. Upsets allowed Girsh to avoid any seeded players at all, but in the fourth round American Johnny Loudermilk stole a set before meekly feasting on breadsticks the rest of the way in a 4-6, 6-1, 6-1, 6-1 decision.

Second Week

So as usual, it was when things reached the final eight that things got interesting for the most part. The top two US players beat each other up in the previous round with Pierce Gaskell proving his superiority by ousting Radek Smitala in a match that went the distance. Gaskell took a set from Iglar, but the Czech legend soon rectified matters and prevailed there. Mehul had a tougher-than-expected road against Thiago Herrera, converting only 3 of 15 break chances and he was extended to four sets also. Benda took another four to stop the one surprise quarterfinalist, Mugur Kinczllers -- the Italian had never made it to the second week of a Slam so it was a new high mark for him. Girish Girsh meanwhile got Marcek, the matchup he wanted. Three tournaments this year, and they've played in all three -- with the same result. Triple 6-4 sets later, and it was 7-0 Girsh in sets. Three straight wins is a pretty good indicator of superiority, and it's six straight overall, but it's not nearly enough to overcome the disparity in the rankings. It'll help though, no question of that.

There was no undue drama in the semifinals. Mehul had a routine straight-set win over Benda, his seventh in their last eight meetings. Iglar beat Girsh for the 16th straight time. It was very tight for the first couple sets as Girsh did just enough on his serve to keep the champion at bay, but couldn't quite prevail in the breakers and the wheels eventually came off in the third.

And so it was on to the expected conclusion. Anil Mehul and Antonin Iglar, this time with Mehul the top seed, for the 31st time including the fourth straight AO final. By reaching this point, Mehul had already guaranteed he would stay #1 no matter the victor. He snared the first set, lost a couple close ones, but showed his determination by winning a fourth-set tiebreaker and forcing a decisive final frame. In the end it wasn't quite enough, with Iglar claiming his 5th straight crown here, 3-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 6-4 in a fantastic final, the first time he's been extended this far in their four meetings here. He was just a little better in the key moments, it was nearly an even match -- but the Czech was once again the deserved victor. A 12th career Grand Slam title moves him into sole possession of fourth on the all-time list and maintains the status quo in the rankings.


Coming Up ...

The World Team Cup second round against Germany, who has eliminated us the last couple of years. Grass is a more favorable surface of course, but the layout is the same: somebody needs to beat Benda. Off of clay, it shouldn't be too much of a struggle for at least one to beat him, and if we can accomplish that we get to knock them out this year, and very early. It would sure be a nice bit of comeuppance.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Group Three, Second Round
Sri Lanka vs. Germany, Grass

Monday: A. Mehul d. H. Oncken, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3
Tuesday: B. Benda d. G. Girsh, 6-3, 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-3
Wednesday: H. Arendt/E. Ercan d. S. Ujjaval/R. Kuttikad, 6-3, 6-3, 6-0
Thursday: A. Mehul d. B. Benda, 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-7(6), 7-5, 6-4
Friday: G. Girsh d. H. Oncken, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5

Sri Lanka defeats Germany, 3-2!!

With that, revenge is served ... barely. After Benda defeated Girsh for the sixth time in seven meetings -- I'm at a loss for why at this point -- he took a pair of tiebreaks from Mehul, reversing fortunes in their match and putting us just one set from defeat. Anil Mehul rallied to win a very long, pretty close match, and then Girsh closed the deal on the final day. Bjorn Benda earned even more respect this week though. He's nearly 30, but he nearly ruined us for the third straight year. Big sigh of relief really at this point, having them knock us out again would have been a real gut-shot.

So we're in the quarterfinals now, the only thing left is to figure out if we win the group. For that to happen, somebody needs to beat Iglar on hardcourt in the spring. The chances of that are ... well, they aren't good. Joining us in the knockout rounds will be the Czech Republic, United States, Peru, and Argentina. The other spots will go to the Spain/Austria winner and two of France/Italy/Russia in crazy group four, pending on who wins their deciding ties.

We're up a spot to a hair above Austria at 7th now, at least for the moment. Next up, the first of three long breaks with Mehul and Girsh both off for a month until Indian Wells. Mooljee will be on the practice courts for almost that long also. .

[Brian Swartz]

February

Nothing actually happened during February, but in the first week of March, Prakash Mooljee was up for his next event. After hemming and hawing and going back and forth, I decided against a challenger event in a busy challenger week and went with a final futures tier-1. Mooljee has been up and down against the unpredictable, motley set of players that make up the 100-200 position in the rankings, and an early loss in a challenger would have left me regretting not taking the sure route, the 'bird in the hand'. Predictably, he rampaged through the draw for another title which gives him just enough that he should be ineligible for any more, though we'll see once another set of amateur points drop off this ranking score. Unfortunately in doubles he had another bad-luck, tough super-tiebreak loss in qualifying. He's been as bad in pairs as he has in singles, and something's got to break soon because he's just too good a player. I think it's just drawing a lot of bad partners.

Shreya Ujjaval continues to frustratingly play way too much. Since the Australian Open, he's had a couple of early losses but did manage a quarterfinal in Acapulco(QF, Clay). That has him up to a new high of 66th. I don't expect too much more of a rise, probably into the Top 50 this year but I don't think further than that this season. We'll see how it goes for him.

Mehul and Girsh had the full stretch of four weeks off. It's interesting that other top players don't follow this strategy, not even the brilliant oprice who handles Iglar and Benda. Girsh failed to defend his title in Memphis and nearly dropped a spot in the rankings for it, falling further behind Marcek. The Czech is somewhat overplayed in my opinion as are the two former #1s, while Gaskell is horribly so. I find this to be a risk and not one worth taking. With Indian Wells and Miami back to back, any player making the final will have three matches a week for four weeks straight. Letting my 'power pair' rest -- I'd have given Girsh another week even if I could -- does make them somewhat vulnerable to early losses in Indian Wells, but at the same time it virtually guarantees they will be fresh enough to excel through the end of Miami and none of the others can say that. Experience has demonstrated to me this is the best way. We are majoring in the majors, and so on.

Coming Up ...

Obviously Indian Wells is up next, and this is the first time that Antonin Iglar, a perfect 19-0 on the year so far, has a real chance to seize back the top spot in the rankings. I think he probably will do so ... at least temporarily. Last year he was a pretty stunning upset victim in the final against Benda, and if he wins it this year he'll be back at #1. However, since Mehul lost early(quarterfinals) in Miami, he can get it back two weeks later by making the finals at both events. This could really go either way.

Girsh goes in with a gap of 1,740 points to catch Marcek, and is just 100 points ahead of the worn-out Gaskell but that's of little consequence given that there is no way the American will be able to produce much over the next month given how overplayed he is. The Czech no. 2 had an early exit in IW last year(4th round) but then made the final in Miami; Girsh had a quarterfinal and a semifinal. I would expect the status quo to be roughly maintained but maybe he can pick up a bit of ground. It appears it will be a longer chase than I previously hoped ...

[Brian Swartz]

Indian Wells

Shreya Ujjaval went out there and lost in the first round 6-2, 7-5 to rising American Phillip Carter. Good on his manager though who evidently got the memo and gave him some time off to practice afterwards: we won't be reporting on him in Miami.

Girish Girsh brushed off all competition in the first week including Kinczllers in the fourth round, then had Benda again in the quarters. After a pretty epic tiebreak in the first set, he failed against the German narrowly again, 7-6(10), 6-7(4), 6-4. A narrow defeat, but the better player did win and it's two already down against Benda this year.

Anil Mehul rolled his way until running into Radek Smitala, easily the toughest possible opponent, in the fourth round. Smitala's first win came last year in the Shanghai quarters; unfortunately he proved it wasn't a fluke with a narrow 7-6(5), 7-6(5) upset here as well. Mehul probably should have won, but it was basically a coin-flip battle and the fact that he wasn't quite up to maximum condition yet was definitely a factor. Unfortunately, this will keep him from being at his best for Miami. So much for the best-laid plans ...

Of more immediate and also lasting consequence is the fact that this basically handed the keys to the #1 ranking to Antonin Iglar. He bashed his way to a 19th Masters Shield without the loss of a set. That was not a surprise so much as who he faced. Smitala went on to smother Benda in straight sets, not allowing so much as a break point. If you told me Radek would be a Masters finalist a year or two ago I would have suggested a mental health professional.

The fallout from all this is that Mehul's time at the top ends at 17 weeks. That's probably going to be it, he could have regained the top spot in Miami if he'd made it further here, but now he would need to win the title to take #1 back and that seems unlikely with Iglar looking like he's re-established dominance. Still, it's 17 weeks more than I ever expected him to get, and he's still clearly the second-best player in the world right now. Time to regroup.

Meanwhile, Girsh slips below Gaskell to 6th place and another semifinal run by Marcek lengthens his lead on both of them. Radek Smitala's first final at any big event has him up to 8th. I don't think he'll rise much longer but it does beg the question as to whether he can back up this performance. One thing's for certain, Indian Wells shook things up a little with things not going exactly as planned. Not the best week for my guys but it's definitely a reminded that there's a reason why the pundits don't play the matches.

All four of my players are in action during the first week of Miami, with Prakash Mooljee getting his first challenger tournament underway, a tier-3 indoor event in Bath. He's been looking increasingly good against the type of competition he's likely to face there, and a number of factors point to the fact that it is finally time for him to make the jump. Here's hoping he's ready ...

[Brian Swartz]

Miami Masters

The draw set up with the potential for some payback this week; Mehul was slated to meet Smitala in the quarterfinals, one round later than Indian Wells, while Girsh and Benda were seeded to meet once again. Unfortunately, another dark horse, this one even more unlikely, stepped forward. Czech no. 3 Milan Farkas upended Girish Girsh 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-4. Girsh played well enough to win but not well enough to be certain of it, completing a decidedly disappointing performance at the year's first pair of Masters events with his second loss in six meetings with Farkas. He had won his last four.

At the same juncture, Mehul advanced easily to the second week over Kinczllers, then allowed Smitala few chances and snuffed out all three break chances he faced in a straight-sets win to ease the pain of the Indian Wells defeat a bit. Rather shockingly, he would next need to deal with Farkas in the semifinals; the upstart staged a comeback win over Benda to reach the last four. Anil Mehul started the match well, a quick bagel demolition in the first set established dominance ... but it didn't last. Farkas converted all three break chances he saw in the last two sets, rallying for a tough and nearly incomprensible 0-6, 7-5, 6-4 win, his third straight upset. He would win only two games against Iglar in the final.

To put this in perspective, Milan Farkas had never reached the quarterfinals or better at any major event. Getting to the final here was improbable in the extreme, and the theme of last month here is definitely unpredictability. Mehul's only chance at getting back to #1 in the forseeable future waves good-bye in the process.

Elsewhere, Prakash Mooljee's first challenger event was quite the smashing success. Undeterred by placing just out of the seedings, he began by annihilating German 7th-seed Djurdje Moicevic with a near-perfect double-bagel in the first round. A series of increasingly competitive straight-sets wins followed until he ran into Vladimir Octrouhov(RUS, 180th) in the final. Octrouhov, objectively a slightly better player, is very similar in technical acumen, stronger but slower with a strong determination on the court. He took the first easily, but as he has so many times Mooljee rallied against the odds for a 2-6, 7-5, 6-0 win. Looks like he's made the move up for good.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Antonin Iglar(27, CZE) -- 12,810

It's been a topsy-turvy start to 2044, particularly the last month. Iglar, however, has proven himself immune, re-establishing himself with a perfect 31-0 record so far this year. He's now up to 20 Masters Shields, and looks a good bet to surpass Oliver Haresign in the #4 spot among all-time greats by the end of the year.

2. Anil Mehul(28, SRI) -- 12,450

The loss to Farkas last week may have been the worst upset of Mehul's career. Smitala beating him was a surprise but not a total shock. Put the two together and there are some quiet questions being asked about the man who was #1 just a month ago.

3. Bjorn Benda(29, DEU) -- 8,940

Benda couldn't repeat last year's hard-court successes, but the best medicine for him is the fact that the clay season is now upon the tour.

4. Cestmir Marcek(29, CZE) -- 7,500

Go figure. After quietly assembling another pair of semifinal runs, Marcek is closer to snagging the #3 spot than he is to falling further down. At a certain point there's nothing to do but applaud. Like his far more accomplished countryman, he hasn't lost any matches he should win. Right now that's more than enough.

5. Pierce Gaskell(27, USA) -- 5,540

Still playing too much, still good but not good enough. Quarterfinal exits in all three big events so far demonstrate that it's more of the same for the top American.

6. Girish Girsh(24, SRI) -- 5,460

It's getting harder and harder to avoid the underachiever label here.

7. Perry Mockler(28, USA) -- 4,220

8. Radek Smitala(26, USA) -- 3,680

Smitala is a hard-court specialist extraordinaire, but hasn't shown he can broaden his game to other surfaces yet.

9. Thiago Herrera(26, PER) -- 3,190

10. Marcelo Herrera(26, PER) -- 3,140

Many others wait in the wings, but for now the Herreras control the bottom of the list. Kinczllers made a brief appearance, but so far has been unable to sustain it.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update


Anil Mehul -- 1st to 2nd singles. Mehul will probably try to add some points and matches in Monte Carlo, but barring a most unlikely repeat of his Madrid/Rome double last year, the gap with Iglar will only grow again. Frankly, the most important thing here is simply to regain his consistency and edge, which seems to have cracked. Of course, there are far worse things than be the clear #2 in the world.

Girish Girsh -- 5th to 6th singles. After a 15-1 start, Girsh is just 6-4 in his last 10 matches. The competition has been a little better, but it has been a very long time since he beat a player better than himself; on the other side of things, he loses to inferior competition more than his share. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the one-sided(in the wrong direction) matchup with Bjorn Benda. Girsh seems to simply not have that something extra, call it killer instinct or whatever, that all of the top champions possess. He's very good, but will he ever be more than that? Right now, that seems doubtful.

Prakash Mooljee -- 232nd to 162nd singles, 2120th to 2011th doubles. Matched with other players, Mooljee has had pretty horrid results. He remains on an absolute tear in singles competition though, now 15-0 on the year to make him 67-1 going back to the start of '43. There have been plenty of opportunities to break that streak, but even against slightly better competition he's consistently come through. His first challenger title came more than half a year younger than either Mehul or Girsh got theirs, and despite starting off 'raw' or 'behind' he appears to be a hair ahead of their technical skills pace at the same age as well. And the one loss in this stretch, a demolition by Shogo Ko? Even that is looking better, as the Japanese journeyman has vaulted back up into the Top 100.

It's still early of course, but right now Mooljee is doing phenomenally well. At this rate, it may yet be a bit before he hits any kind of ceiling.


Anil Manohar -- rankings aren't really relevant for him, but it's worth noting that's he's almost saved up the necessary trainer payment. That will be finished off in a week or two, freeing him to spend the rest of the year adding a bit to his skills.


Manager Ranking -- 3rd(unchanged), 30.6k to 30.9k points. Over the first quarter I actually fell further behind second-place Hayato.


Coming Up ...

Though not certain, it looks right now like both Mehul and Girsh will be playing in Monte Carlo, with both a bit low on matches right now. First though, it's the final round of group play in the World Team Cup. The Czech Republic are probably favorites to repeat, and unless somebody can knock off Iglar it won't be us that beats them.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Group Three, Third Round
Czech Republic(2nd) vs. Sri Lanka(7th), Hardcourt

Monday: A. Iglar d. G. Girsh, 7-6(9), 6-2, 6-2
Tuesday: A. Mehul d. C. Marcek, 6-2, 6-4, 6-3
Wednesday: L. Nedved/J. Simunek d. S. Ujjaval/R. Kuttikad, 6-0, 6-0, 6-0
Thursday: A. Iglar d. A. Mehul, 6-2, 6-3, 6-2
Friday: C. Marcek d. G. Girsh, 6-4, 6-3, 4-6, 3-6, 7-5

Czech Republic defeats Sri Lanka, 4-1!!

Yeck. The less said about this the better. I can't remember the last time we failed to win at least two rubbers in a WTC tie. Only one competitive set against Iglar, a triple-bagel from our hideous doubles team, and Girsh's winning streak against Marcek is even gone. A dead heat of a match that one was, but still. The Czech's take the group decisively. Most of the others to advance weren't surprising, but Group 4 lived up to it's uncertain billing with France, Italy, and Russia all tying by winning two of three rounds. Russia had by far the worst match record at just 8-7 though, so the other two move on.

Sri Lanka stays at 7th in the world rankings at least. More importantly, the draw for the knockout rounds was quite kind to us. Here's how the matchups shake out:

** United States(1st) vs. Italy(13th), Clay
** Czech Republic(2nd) vs. Austria(9th), Clay

These are interesting in that obviously the Czechs and the US are huge favorites and really should be headed to the final against each other in a perfect world. However, both of their opponents are probably at their best advantage on the dirt. I doubt that'll be enough to cause an upset though. A blockbuster semfinal between the titans is still expected.

** Argentina(3rd) vs. Peru(8th), Indoors

There's more than a little bit of irony here with some of the world's best clay-courters going at it on a fast track. I like Peru here though, the Herreras are right now the best players in this matchup, and more adept indoors than Argentina's top threat, Gustavo Carratti.

** France(5th) vs. Sri Lanka(7th), Hardcourt

The French are young, talented, and improving. This should still be a gimme though, even with a few more months improvement. Right now I'd favor us for our second final in three years against one of the top pair from the other side of the bracket. Finding a way to reverse the slump we appear to be in right now in terms of Mehul and Girsh's playing level is a much bigger concern than any of the opposition before that point.


Coming Up ...

Monte Carlo gets the clay season underway.

[Brian Swartz]

So now it's time once again to blast the thread with a barrage of posts. This particular delay had three causes:

** Last week my boss was on vacation, which meant extra joy and rapture for me.
** Results were pretty depressing from the clay season for my players. It's always more fun to report good news.
** I had a mouse die(computer, not animal).

So with no more ado, here we go!

Monte Carlo 'Masters'

A couple of interesting storylines going into this. First, since Mehul is playing and Iglar isn't, he actually had a chance to seize the #1 spot again for a few weeks. In order to do so, he'd need to reach the final which seemed likely. Also, Girsh, despite his struggles, has an opportunity to make headway on Marcek. The Czech no. 2 had two big results last year that elevated him above the rest; the first was here where he is the two-time defending champion, the second was being a finalist at RG where he actually led Benda 2-0 before collapsing. He'll never get that close to being a Slam champion again. It's a really sad, good story for him, but more to the point he may 'come back to the field' so to speak in the clay season if he can't repeat these results.

Both players had routine wins in their first matches. Mehul matched up with Shreya Ujjaval, who had done well to qualify and beat another qualifier in the first round. He took just four games off Sri Lanka's #1 though. The third round was more testy. Mehul had rising Frenchman Davide Poilblan who pushed him to three, though he was served a breadstick in the decider. Girsh ran into the most dangerous player he could have, Argentine Gustavo Caratti. Caratti, seeded 12th, is an extreme clay-court specialist and while Girsh fought for a while he eventually succumbed in straight sets. Not the result he was looking for.

Mehul got another easy win, and then came the semifinals which featured four pretty evenly matched players on this surface. The other three were 9th-ranked Thiago Herrera, Marcek, and Smitala. Mehul was stopped one match short of regaining the #1 ranking by Herrera, 4-6, 6-2, 6-4, despite pounding out 18 aces. It was a pretty close match, but after the first set the Peruvian was clearly better. Herrera went on to claim his first Masters Shield by taking another three-setter, this one over Smitala.

[Brian Swartz]

May

In the interim before the Madrid/Rome really gets the clay season going in earnest, there were a couple more happenings. Girish Girsh needed more matches so he headed off to Barcelona(500) the week after MC. As the top seed, he had a very tight quarterfinal against 5th-seed Roger Federer(SUI), a match he had every opportunity to win but still nearly lost. 4-6, 6-4, 7-5 was the comeback final, with Federer actually applying a bit more consistent pressure but converting just 2 of 15 break points. Unfortunately Girsh didn't take advantadge of it much, getting blasted aside far too easily by Condon in the semifinals. The Phillipine star -- the only notable player from that country, as we've noticed -- went on to take his second career 500-level title, narrowly edging Caratti.

The following week, Prakash Mooljee was at it again, a Tier-3 clay challenger in Savannah, Georgia. Seeded third, he ran into more resistance this time against a pair of Americans buoyed by the local partisan crowd. In the semifinals it was 2-seed Lloyd Blackwood providing the opposition. Blackwood's complete lack of a serve eventually cost him, as 13 double faults contributed to Mooljee surviving 6-4, 4-6, 6-2. Next up was top-seeded Tommy Day. Day, a veteran ranked just outside of the Top 100, had overplayed badly coming in and the fatigue was just enough for Mooljee to capture another title, 6-4, 7-6(6). He's still perfect in singles on the year, and is really the one guy that is saving the season for Sri Lanka at the moment.

[Brian Swartz]

Madrid Masters

Things went from suck to blow here, and in a right big hurry. Girsh's first match was against a qualifier. It wasn't any qualifier; long-time followers will recognize the name of Austrian Julian Hammerstein, who rarely plays singles anymore, but is still a force when he chooses to. Girsh still should have won, but didn't, getting dumped out unceremoniously in straight sets.

In the next(third) round, Mehul had his turn at Caratti. He didn't fare all that much better than his compatriot. He did fight hard for a second set that he probably should have won, but still fell 6-2, 7-5. And so the quarterfinals came with both players already gone from the tournament. It more or less went according to form after that, Benda taking a close final over Iglar who survived a few upset attempts on the way there.


Rome Masters

Anil Mehul drew Caratti again in the third round, but this time it was a lot better off. Caratti had played too much at this point, and took just two games, a rather remarkable reversal from the match last week. Girsh had a pretty easy ride to the quarterfinals as well. Unfortunately the wheels came off there again. The flavor of the month this week was Mugur Kinczllers, who beat Girsh in three to reach the semifinals. Even more surprisingly, he had already upset Benda in the previous round.

As for Mehul, he ran into 10th-ranked Marcelo Herrera. They hadn't played since Roland Garros last year, when Herrera won a long, tight match, his first win in 10 encounters. This was more of the same, a three-set affair but Mehul lost again.

Iglar looked a little sharper this week, and beat Herrera for his 21st Masters. Overall he's probably the favorite to get his crown back at Roland Garros, but Benda is always a major threat, and lots of players have stepped forward recently. Smitala, both Herreras, Kinczllers, Caratti have all had their moments. It's quite a wide-open field of potential contenders all things considered.

In the interim, both players needed more matches so they played in a 250 event, meeting in the final for their first real match in two and a half years. Mehul has still never lost to Girsh after a 7-5, 6-1 win. More importantly, they are set up pretty well for RG. Mooljee's next challenger will be that week also.

[Brian Swartz]

2044 Roland Garros

Opening Rounds

The second Slam of the year arrives with a comprehensively disappointing clay season for Sri Lanka's top players leading up to it. Shreya Ujjaval has done ok and has been moving up slowly through the rankings, but he was bounced in straight sets in the first round by 24-seed Andre Herrera(PER). The Herreras are all strong clay-court players, so this was not much a surprise, just not a great matchup.

The opening rounds set up pretty well for the top duo. Both walked through their first three matches, then met up with rising French players in the fourth round hoping to get some support from the crowd in the homeland's top tournament. Mehul brushed aside 17th-seed Davide Poilblan, and Girsh took down 21st-seed Theodore Boudret, both in lopsided straight-set wins. Both of the youngsters had pulled off one upset to get here, but that was it for them. A smooth ride to the quarterfinals was a nice change from the past few events.

Meanwhile, Prakash Mooljee's next outing was his first Tier-2 challenger in Nantes, not all that far away. Seeded third, a potential semifinal encounter with likely rival Hugo Jurco, the top seed, seemed to be on the cards. However, Mooljee was stunned by Finnish qualifier Lanni Sivonen in the first round instead, his first loss in several months! 6-2, 2-6, 7-6(4) was the final. Sivonen is the kind of player he's beaten many times, a fine baseline player without much of a serve, but he is a more adept player on this surface. Mooljee actually was slightly the better player, and it was the kind of match he's come through time and time again. Not this time.


Second Week

Back at RG, Girish Girsh was in Iglar's quarter, and didn't put up much of a fight in a meek three-set departure. That's 18 losses in as many career matchups, for those of you scoring at home. Making the quarterfinals isn't a bad result, and would be fine if he'd produced more consistent results leading up to it. Anil Mehul sent surprise quarterfinalist Agustin Herrera packing, matching his best result here with the win but he had yet to face any of the world's better clay players, so it's largely been a luck of the draw thing this year. He'll take it.

In the first semifinal, Bjorn Benda laid a beatdown on Iglar the likes of which I don't think I've seen him endure before. 6-1, 6-3, 6-0, with the five-time champion facing just one break point and nearly doubling the legend in terms of total points. A rather embarassing thing. The fans got their money's worth in the second match though, which featured Mehul going up against Cestmir Marcek. Anil had the better of things for the most part, but the feisty 30-year-old Czech would not give up easily. He won a tiebreak in the fourth set to force the match to go the distance, and then pushed the final frame beyond it's expected duration. Eventually though, Mehul did prevail, 6-4, 2-6, 6-2, 6-7(5), 9-7! He was just a little better in the key moments, and advanced to his first-ever final here at RG. That gives him a full set; he's been to at least one championship match now in every Slam tournament. Not a bad thing to put on the resume.

That meant of course going up against Benda, winner of five of the last six titles here. Two years ago, in Mehul's previous best, he led two sets to zero but let it slip away in the semifinals, his best chance to date at winning this tournament. History has a way of repeating, and sometimes reversing itself. After a tight first set went the way of the German, the second was more one-sided and it looked like it might be over quickly. Anil had other ideas, prevailing in a third-set tiebreak and then taking the fourth as well. A second straight five-set match, and by far Benda's sternest test of the championships, ended somewhat anticlimactically as he seized control early in the fifth to take his sixth trophy here, 7-5, 6-2, 6-7(5), 4-6, 6-2. He was at his best when it mattered most, winning 9 of 15 break chances. Anil did well to push it this far, but comes up one set short.


Elsewhere ...

Mooljee was back in action again at a tier-2 in Furth, Germany. Seeded 5th this time, he made it further(bad pun intended) that the previous week ... but not by much. In the second round, unseeded Argentina Benjamin Mendez knocked him out in a close straight-sets scoreline. It was basically the same situation as before; Mendez is an all-rally, no-serve veteran who is superior on clay and in better match shape. Two tier-2 events, two early losses, the kinds of matches he normally wins. Safe to say our young hero has finally hit the wall, at least for the moment. These kinds of results actually knock him backwards in terms of rankings, with a futures success from last year coming off his tally every few weeks. He was fortunate enough to snag a good doubles partner, and made a run to the final, so at least Mooljee will be able to take a couple weeks off for training. This was the last week of his teen years, which were overwhelmingly successful except for the recent unpleasantness.


Coming Up ...

Everybody's off until Wimbledon in three weeks, when Mehul will go for his third straight title. Certainly his performance here at RG provides hope that he's shaken off the doldrums of the last couple of months.

[Brian Swartz]

2044 Wimbledon

Opening Rounds

When the draw came out, it was clear that Girish Girsh had an interesting opportunity here. He was once again in the same quarter as Marcek, as he had been in the Australian Open to start the year but not since then. With the Czech no. 2 not having quite the clay season he had a year ago(thanks in no small part to Mehul outlasting him a few weeks ago at RG), Girsh had closed the gap despite his own struggles. If he could beat Marcek in the quarters, he would nearly eliminate it and give himself a chance at getting to #4 by the end of the year.

Mehul was not so happy with his draw, as Benda was on his side(it would be much preferred to have him playing on Iglar's side, as it was last year, so that he only needed to play one of them). But you can't win them all, and he did have things his way at the French, so it was only fair really. Time to see if he could win a third straight here. 10 men have won two in a row, but only three have done it three years consecutively ... Gabriel Alastra stands alone with four straight here. So it's a real chance at some significant history.

Shreya Ujjaval had himself an easy win over a qualifier -- ntndeacon's Nawal Sebban, a veteran who has never been past the first round of a Slam. He then met Anton Grimaldo, fresh off an upset of 31st-seed Vito Brandini, and Grimaldo knocked out Ujjaval in a tough four-set match. Still a solid result for the steadily improving Sri Lanka no. 3.

Girsh and Mehul both progressed easily through the early rounds, neither dropping a set in their first three matches though Mehul did have a bit of trouble with one of the younger Herreras in the third round. In the round of 16, Girsh met up with former nemesis Milan Farkas, who he played at this same stage last year and defeated. It's the Czech no. 3's best surface, but he struggled mightily to make any headway on Girsh's serve, and lost in four. Mehul played a foe of similar quality and took four as well to put away Mugur Kinczllers

While this was going on, Prakash Mooljee was in Germany for another clay tier-2 challenger. This time he was able to exorcise of the ghosts of his recent early exits, taking the title in a fine final match against 4-seed Matthias Faber, who enjoyed the support of the crowd being a local player. It was another example of Mooljee escaping a match in which he was slightly outplayed, and it went down to the end with a 6-2, 3-6, 7-5 final. It's the first 90-point challenger that Prakash has won, and a lot better than first and second-round exits, though he was out in qualifying in the doubles which is more of what we might expect.


Second Week

Wimbledon is often full of surprises, and there were three double-digits seeds that reached the quarterfinals this year. None of them would go any further though. Russia's Afanasy Bereznity, off to a disappointing start to the year, was dispatched easily by Iglar. Italy's Tobia Alberti had done Girsh a great favor by knocking out Marcek in the third round, and the math meant that if Girsh won their encounter and reached the semifinals, he would take over the #4 spot in the rankings! He controlled the match throughout and was helped considerably in an easy straight-sets win by the fact that Alberti did not convert a single one of his six chances to break. The final underdog was another young player, Sweden's Elias Trulsen. An excellent athlete with a good serve and a strong affinity for grass play, he was no push-over, but after dropping a first-set tiebreak Mehul recovered to push him aside in four sets.

The semifinals looked much different with four of the world's top five left; the chaff had been removed, so to speak. Girsh's 19th try at Antonin Iglar was a sad affair; he won just seven games and was thoroughly manhandled. The second matchup was Mehul against Bjorn Benda, their fourth meeting on grass and all of the previous ones had been hotly constested. This was no exception. After dropping the first set, and then an epic tiebreaker in the second, Anil had to stage a comeback from 2-0 down. He was clearly the better player over the last half of the match, but it still took a long fifth set for him to eventually down the 30-year-old German, 3-6, 6-7(10), 6-4, 6-4, 9-7. Benda saved 16 of the 20 break points he faced, and it was almost enough for him to get the upset. He simply refuses to grow old gracefully -- there's no quit yet in the former champion.

Having struggled to a degree in four straight matches leading up to it, and facing the best player in the world looking in dominant form without dropping a set so far in the tournament, Anil Mehul was in the unusual situation of being an underdog two-time defending champion in the final. He would clearly need to step up his game if he was going to win this. He trailed again, dropping the first set and then the third, but once again forced a long fifth set ... and once again won it, a pair of fairly astonishing comeback wins against the best players in the world accomplishing his third straight title here, 3-6, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-5! Iglar did well to make it go that long considering that he only cracked the Mehul serve once, in the first set, but the third-set tiebreak made it go the distance. Overall, Anil was definitely the better player, rising to the moment here in a most satisfying third addition to his Slam trophy case.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Antonin Iglar(27, CZE) -- 14,170

Despite the Wimbledon defeat, Iglar has only three setbacks this year, none on hardcourt. It's looking like another banner year for him, and he's opened up a sizable lead. He's up to 5th now in total weeks at #1 with 174.

2. Anil Mehul(28, SRI) -- 12,210

A fairly brief wobble was more than enough to drop Mehul from the top spot; he's lost eight this year, compared to nine all of last year. He's still unquestionably the clear second-best though, and that's just fine if he finishes the season well.

3. Bjorn Benda(30, DEU) -- 8,650

None of the chasers are even approaching him yet. It looks like Benda will be a factor for another year or two, assuming he chooses to.

4. Girish Girsh(25, SRI) -- 5,820

Having taken the opportunity presented him, Girsh continues to flounder against the top three but has moved up to the important fourth spot for the first time. Whether he can stay there or not is still an open question ...

5. Cestmir Marcek(30, CZE) -- 5,700

Finally we've seen the first evidence that Marcek is returning to the reality that he's old. It's not certain whether it's just a blip or not, but his third-round exit at Wimbledon was the first time he's failed to reach the second week of a Slam in two years.

6. Pierce Gaskell(28, USA) -- 5,180

Still all quarterfinals and no preparation, Gaskell may be starting to slide a bit also.

7. Radek Smitala(26, USA) -- 4,250

Now clearly the US #2, it will be interesting to see how Smitala fares in the WTC along Gaskell this year.

8. Thiago Herrera(26, PER) -- 3,870

9. Perry Mockler(28, USA) -- 3,480

Mockler is fading with a horde of contenders ready to take his place. He'll be gone from this list soon.

10. Gustavo Caratti(24, ARG) -- 3,110

A bit more youth here as Caratti is gradually rising despite being criminally overplayed. I don't think there's a better athlete in tennis right now.


The gap between Caratti and 15th in the rankings(Farkas) is just over 400 points; there is a lot of competition for the last couple of spots in the Top 10 right now. So far though, none of the next generation has managed to join that group, which mostly has players at or near their primes.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update


Anil Mehul -- 2nd singles(unchanged). A couple of 250 titles, but Mehul has been unable to replicate last year's success except at Wimbledon. The clay season was particularly underwhelming, but he's still more than good enough to be Iglar's best competition.


Girish Girsh -- 6th to 4th singles. Girsh still has a couple hundred points less than he had at the start of the year, but moves up due to a significant crash on the part of Marcek. The battle for fourth, and the vital right to avoid the Big 3 until the semifinals that comes with it, is far from over though. He has only a 120-point cushion and will be skipping Washington, where he was a semifinalist last year. It is very possible, perhaps even probable, that Marcek could regain the spot after Canada, where he lost in the third round last season. Maybe even sooner, if he picks up some points in the interim. There is a lot of work left if Girsh is to secure the #4 ranking, which is his primary goal heading into the US Open and the end of the year. A lot of jostling and yo-yoing is likely to happen between now and then, and he really needs to avoid any more big upset losses.


Prakash Mooljee --- 162nd to 114th singles, 2011th to 755th doubles. One good run moved him up to a nearly-respectable doubles ranking but he's still losing in qualifying almost every time out. The recent title in Marburg got him back on the right track in singles though. Mooljee will continue playing Tier 2's at best for a little while though; there's no point in trying to move up to Tier-1's until he's well inside the Top 100, and he's probably still six months away from having a real chance to take on the top challenger players.


Manager Ranking -- 3rd(unchanged), 30.9k points to 32.6k. How's this for close: Hayato still holds the second spot after Wimbledon by twenty-seven points. He's got 32,589, to my 32,562. That's just over eight hundredths of a percent. I've been stuck just behind for something close to a calendar year now, but I'm finally almost there.


Coming Up ...

Everybody is off for the next month, until the Canada and Cincinatti Masters. Since we're still in the World Team Cup, Girsh and Mehul will play five tournament weeks out of six at that point, so they'll need the rest and hopefully will be ready to play at a high level coming out of the training weeks.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the World Tour Finals
Initial Post-Wimbledon Standings

In

Antonin Iglar -- 8,620
Bjorn Benda -- 6,370
Anil Mehul -- 6,280

Three Slam tournaments so far, three different champions. Iglar been the consistent factor in between though, and heading into his best time of the year on the US hardcourts there is virtually no chance anyone is going to catch him. Mehul may be in third here at the moment, but I don't see him staying there either. Benda's best events are all in the rear-view mirror now.


Probable

Girish Girsh -- 4,670
Cestmir Marcek -- 4,120

These two have their own private little battle going on. They are too good be involved in the qualification battle, and not good enough to contend with the best in the world.


Contenders

Thiago Herrera -- 2,865
Pierce Gaskell -- 2,800
Radek Smitala -- 2,670
------------------------------

This trio has an edge on the rest ... for the moment. For Smitala, it would be his first berth, replacing Mockler, but there's a long way to go, and lot of chasers. Gaskell, despite his solid position in the current rankings, has a lot of his points to defend at the end of the year. He's by no means safe here if he can't pull it off.


Long Shots

Gustavo Caratti -- 2,285
Marcelo Herrera -- 2,170
John Condon -- 2,155
Perry Mockler -- 2,110
Mugur Kinczllers -- 2,090
Milan Farkas -- 2,085
Roger Federer -- 1,765

Very little separates most of this chaotic horde of wanna-bes. It remains to be seen if any of them will make a serious run at qualifying, but they certainly can't be counted out yet.

[Brian Swartz]

July

As anticipated, very little happened here. No tournaments for any of my players so this is really an update to just note the passage of time as anything else. The Canada Masters will begin momentarily.

The dance between Cestmir Marcek and Girsh for the 4th spot continues. Marcek was upset in the semifinals of Washington which was more than enough to reverse the small lead Girsh had and swap them. Also, after some length of consideration Girsh will be playing doubles in Canada to jump-start his match condition just a little bit and hopefully give him a better chance to go deep. I'll rue that decision if he makes it far into the draw and gets too many matches, but that seems unlikely.

All three of my main players will be in action this coming week, so there will be a lot more action in the next update.

[Brian Swartz]

Canada Masters

Mehul and Girsh were both drawn into the same quarter, a bit of luck that is either good or bad depending on how you look at it; very good odds that at least one would make the semis. Shreya Ujjaval did his usual as of late, qualifying and getting a first-round win before meekly bowing out to Caratti.

Anil Mehul had a rough third-round match against Perry Mockler, almost going out to the fading American before prevailing in a final-set tiebreak. Girsh swatted aside an exhausted Gustavo Caratti, setting up the second matchup this year between the two.

This was the fifth competitive meeting between the two, and for the first time the junior player prevailed in a classic, 7-6(3), 6-7(4), 6-4. Could have gone either way, Mehul probably should have won, but Girsh's mental game prevailed over 20 aces from Anil, who is the defending champion here. Ultimately it came down him needing the win more. The point count was 116-115, about as close as it gets.

In the semis Benda awaited, having just survived a three-tiebreak affair with Thiago Herrera. Having lost his last three and seven of eight in this matchup, things weren't looking any rosier for Girsh to advance further. Again he lost the total points count by one ... but found a way to win a match he was on the losing side of a coin-flip on overall, 6-4, 3-6, 7-5. Back-to-back super-tight victories against his closest competitors in terms of overall ability ... I can't remember the last time Girsh managed that. I don't think there is really a precedent, and he advanced to his first Masters final.

A 20th straight loss to Iglar followed, 4 & 4. That's 21 consecutive sets as well, for those of you scoring at home. The last time he took one off the world no. 1 was at Shanghai nearly a year ago. But it was still one heck of a run here, and one that should end the conflict over the #4 spot in the rankings. That now belongs to Girsh, with Marcek bowing out in the quarterfinals to Gaskell.


Elsewhere ...

At the Trani Challenger, the top 5 seeds were all in the 100th-120th spots in the rankings. Prakash Mooljee was fourth among that group. He managed to qualify in doubles, but then lost in the first round. Better than most events, but not enough to make any real progress. Mostly he had solid wins, although a second-round clash with Sri Lanka veteran Rakesh Kuttikad was interesting. It was brutal also, a double-bagel beatdown. The tournament was basically decided in the semifinals against Falk Gries, a German journeyman who once was ranked 11th in the world, but at nearly 34 years old was just hanging onto respectability. It was a strange match; Gries was more consistent, while Mooljee played brilliant at times, and terribly at others. In the end, he got through as he generally does, with a narrow 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 comeback win, and had a relatively easy victory in the final to claim his second straight title and fourth challenger overall. Mooljee is now knocking on the door of the Top 100.


Cincinatti Masters

Ujjaval wisely took the week off here to practice, and the opening rounds were pretty similar to last week otherwhise. Girsh got Mockler this time in the third round, and won a close straight-setter. Mehul once again had to survive a final-set tiebreak, this time against Roger Federer. Both were in to the quarters again, but this time on opposite sides of the bracket.

Caratti made a nice run here, but was beaten in a competitive match by Mehul. Girish Girsh had to contend with hardcourt specialist Radek Smitala, and took his third win in four meetings but it was a real battle, 3-6, 6-4, 7-5. Meanwhile, Mugur Kinczllers upset Benda in a final-set breaker, the second time he's knocked off the German early this year in a Masters. That's an interesting little rivalry developing there.

Both semifinals were fairly anti-climactic. Iglar brushed aside Girsh again, competitive but not good enough as has often been the case. Mehul gave Kinczllers similar treatment. The final was even worse, with Iglar's impressive run this year continuing by the disappointingly lopsided count of 6-3, 6-1. It was as ugly as that indicated. We're back to the point, at least right now, where he has no real competition on the hardcourts. It's his 23rd Masters Shield, which ties for 4th all-time.

This might have been the best two weeks Girsh has ever put together, and he's got a lot of momentum now heading into the US Open. With Marcek an upset victim in the third round, he appears to be going exactly the opposite direction. The #4 spot is now firmly in the possession of Girsh, and he should soon be able to turn his attention to loftier matters.

Coming Up ...

A week off for everyone, and then the year's final Slam.

[Brian Swartz]

One little side note; at Winston-Salem, the large 250 event the week before the USO, there was a rather shocking turn of events when flame-out Gareth McCuskey, the 13th seed, won the title. He's been on his way down for over a year, peaking at 24th in the rankings and was nearly out of the Top 50 before this moved him up into the mid-30s. At just 24 years old, I'm not sure what his issue is but he definitely doesn't look like the 'next big thing' he once had the potential to be. This is the first time in over two years(Hammerstein in the '42 Olympics was the last) that a double-digit seed won any professional event. Most of them don't even have more than eight seeds, of course. Helped that it was a 'home' event, but that was still a rather shocking turn of events.

2044 US Open

Opening Rounds

And now of course to the main event, the final Slam of the year. Shreya Ujjaval had himself quite a tournament, knocking off the fading 15-seed John Condon(PHI) in the first round in four sets, then getting to his second third-round result of the year. There, he stole the first set before falling in four to France's Theodore Bourdet, a loss that looked even better after Bourdet made it all the way to the semifinals, a huge result for him, and upset Bjorn Benda in the process. It was the first time in almost two years that Benda failed to reach the second week of a Slam.

Anil Mehul and Girish Girsh were both drawn on the same half, setting things up for a potential semifinal clash if they both took care of business. There was only one mild surprise for them in the first week; a surprisingly strong showing by 23rd-seed Andres Blanco of Spain. That's a name I haven't mentioned for a while, and with good reason; the former world no. 11 is 31 years old and had lost in the third round of the last seven Slam events he entered. He found a fountain of youth here, and not only went a round further but took a close tiebreak from Girsh to open the match before eventually going down in four sets.


In Other News ...

Como, Italy was the site of the latest Tier-2 challenger for Prakash Mooljee. Another first-round qualifying loss in doubles surprised nobody. As the #2 seed here, he smashed his way through all opposition, with only 7-seed Francis Ferzetti, aided by a partisan crowd, offering any real resistance in the semifinals. After Ferzetti failed to score a single point in the first-set tiebreak, even that was broken.


Second Week

The match of the quarterfinal round was the upstart Bourdet getting his second straight upset, this one over Thiago Herrera. Bourdet came from a set down to outlast the Peruvian 7-5 in the 5th. Elsewhere it was straight sets as it always is lately for Iglar over Marcek, while our two heroes each went four to advance. Mehul had little trouble overall aside from a third-set tiebreak against the always-dangerous but lately unimpressive Radek Smitala, while Girsh dropped a first-set breaker for the second straight match before righting the ship against Pierce Gaskell. And so it was that both remaining US players flamed out against my Sri Lankans, to the disgust of the crowds at Flushing Meadows.

Iglar flattened Bourdet in the first semi, to the surprise of nobody. In the second match, it was a real test of whether Girsh has finally matched Mehul on the court, or whether his victory a few weeks ago was simply a fluke. On this day, the younger player was a little more solid all the way around, not as many double faults, much better on break chances(3/4 compared to 1/8), and overall able to take a few more of his opportunities. Girsh has only won twice in this matchup, but both have been key victories over the course of the last month -- and this one advances him to his first Slam final, 6-4, 6-7(6), 6-3, 7-6(3).

That meant facing Iglar for the 22nd time. Nobody has really pushed the no. 1 this year, and Girsh didn't either, but he played him a little tougher than the rest, forcing the Czech champion to a tiebreak which is more than anybody else managed. In the end, it wasn't close to enough in a 6-2, 6-3, 7-6(6) final, a remarkable 6th consecutive US Open title and this one without the loss of a set.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Antonin Iglar(27, CZE) -- 14,970

Iglar is just being ridiculous this year. It could be his best year ever; he is presently 70-3, and while he may be challenged on the indoor courts at the end of the year, that's even a dubious possibility at this point. Right now he's pretty much even overall with Oliver Haresign for the final spot on the All-Time Mount Rushmore. More detail on that at the end of the year, but Iglar's victories in Canada and Cincinatti moved him up to a 4th-place tie with 23 Masters Shields, and there's no sign he's slowing down.

2. Anil Mehul(28, SRI) -- 10,510

Mehul is a very distant second right now, and for the first time in years doesn't even look like the second-best player in the world anymore.

3. Bjorn Benda(30, DEU) -- 8,450

The upsets are getting a little more common all the time.

4. Girsh Girsh(25, SRI) -- 6,810

It's been a great month for Girsh; not long enough to convince anybody it's more than a blip, but only Iglar has been better since Wimbledon. Two big finals in less than a month has him poised to not just hold onto the fourth spot, but eventually push higher.

5. Cestmir Marcek(30, CZE) -- 5,670

Marcek's level has definitely fallen off, at least in terms of consistency, leaving the WTC among other things wide-open this year.

6. Pierce Gaskell(28, USA) -- 5,290

7. Radek Smitala(27, USA) -- 4,450

It's hard to tell which of the Americans is really the better player at this point.

8. Thiago Herrera(27, PER) -- 4,090

9. Gustavo Caratti(25, ARG) -- 3,295

Still gradually moving up, Caratti has a bad case of not being able to say no to playing a ridiculous amount of tournaments. If this continues, he'll basically end up being a Gaskell clone -- good, but not as good as he could have been .

10. Mugur Kinczllers(25, ITA) -- 3,130

With Kinczllers up as well as it was predicted would eventually happen, Generation Flash is finally making it's move. Better late than never I guess. Somebody had to replace Mockler, and he's better than the rest of those chasing.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update


Anil Mehul -- 2nd singles(unchanged). For the first time, I am left to wonder how long Mehul may occupy the #1 spot in the national rankings. I don't know exactly how long he's held it, but it's been at least the nearly 7 in-game years this dynasty has been going on. He was probably tops a year or two at least before that, so call it close to a decade. That's not to say that his run is over or anything, he's only declined slightly, but back-to-back losses to Girsh have all the appearance of writing on the wall. This year looks like it will end up being not as good as the last two, but better than the year before that. Good, but not great. Really not a surprise that the 'perfect storm' of last year's unexpected success didn't last. But a third straight Wimbledon is still worth celebrating, and he's still good enough to have some fun in Paris and the Tour Finals yet. There's a lot still to play for.


Girish Girsh -- 4th singles(unchanged), NR to 595th doubles. The dance with Marcek is over; the Czech no. 2 is clearly in the rearview mirror and for the second year in a row, Girsh is playing his best tennis at the end of the year. After semifinal results in Shanghai and Paris last year, it's unlikely he'll improve a great deal on his standing before the new year arrives. More importantly will be doing well at the Tour Finals which is where it started coming apart for him last year. He's shown recently that he's good enough to be #2 -- going further than that means waiting for Iglar to turn into a human again instead of this Lord of Tennis thing he's been doing again this year -- but he hasn't proven he can be consistent for more than a couple of months. It remains to be seen if he can confound those expectations. Girsh's return game, particularly on break chances, has been persistently brilliant lately and could carry him to many a title in the future.


Shreya Ujjaval -- I meant to note his ranking progress in this space, even though Ujjaval is not managed by me, but neglected to this year. He's up from 108th to a career-best 48th after his successful run at the US Open, and his manager appears to be improving in giving him more(although still not quite enough) weeks off to practice. He's improved significantly this year, and Ujjaval could well be a Top 20 player within a year's time.


Prakash Mooljee -- 114th to 87th singles, 755th to 720th doubles. Pairs is still a struggle, but after losing two of three matches a few months ago Mooljee is back with a vengeance. He's reeled off three straight Tier-2 Challenger titles, giving him five challengers overall -- at a younger age than either Mehul or Girsh were when they won their first! That's partly due to him being more of a natural/less of a worker, partly due to him aging a bit faster, a little better athleticism has helped as has better scheduling, but the bottom line is it's been another wildly successful year, 36-2 at this stage. Towards the end of the year he'll probably step up to play at least one Tier-1 event at some point. A bit more luck in his partners for doubles would be nice though ...


Manager Ranking -- 3rd(unchanged), 32.6k points to 33.7k. Hayato continues to stay just ahead, 655 points at this juncture. oprice meanwhile has broken his record once again, now at over 64k.


Coming Up ...

The WTC quarterfinals, with Sri Lanka heavily favored against France, are next week. Assuming that we prevail there, it'll be all WTC action between now and the Shanghai Masters in a little over a month; Mooljee is due for a sizable break, and the other two will get enough action for the national team to keep them sharp.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the Tour Finals Standings
Second Edition, Post-USO


In

Antonin Iglar -- 12,620
Anil Mehul -- 7,780
Bjorn Benda -- 7,690

Still surprisingly close for the #2 spot, which is not wrapped up by any means.


Probable

Girish Girsh -- 5,390
Cestmir Marcek -- 4,930

Marcek has picked up a lot of points in small events, the only thing keeping him this close here.


Contenders

Pierce Gaskell -- 4,110
Radek Smitala -- 3,820
Thiago Herrera -- 3,775
-----------------------------------

Winning the 500-level tournament in Washington gave Gaskell a lot more confidence that he'll pull through and return to the Finals, while Herrera has made three Slam quarterfinals after winning Monte Carlo earlier in the year. Right now this trio has a sizable lead on those chasing them.


Long Shots

Gustavo Caratti -- 2,895
Mugur Kinczllers -- 2,790

Most of the pretenders have dropped off the grid now, and even Caratti and Kinczllers both need a big finish to have any chance to crash the party.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Quarterfinals
France(5th) vs. Sri Lanka(7th), Hardcourt

Monday: G. Girsh d. T. Bourdet, 6-2, 6-1, 6-3
Tuesday: A. Mehul d. D. Poilblan, 6-2, 6-4, 6-3
Wednesday: R. Iraugui/T. Rey d. S. Ujjaval/R. Kuttikad, 6-0, 6-2, 6-1
Thursday: A. Mehul d. T. Bourdet, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2
Friday: G. Girsh d. D. Poilblan, 6-1, 6-4, 6-0

Sri Lanka defeats France, 4-1!!

I was surprised by how one-sided the singles rubbers were; the French contestants are ranked 19th and 20th right now, and Bourdet just gone done with a semifinal run at the US Open. We move past Spain, and a single point ahead of France as well into 5th in the world rankings. Next up will be Peru after they edged favored Argentina 3-2. Gustavo Caratti was the goat in this case for the Argentinians, as he didn't come in prepared and it cost them.

On the other side, the Czech Republic blanked Austria 5-0, while Italy stunned the United States 3-2 thanks largely to a favorable clay surface. It was still a surprising result though, with Gaskell losing both of his rubbers. The Americans are clearly on their way down; all three of their elite players(Gaskell in 6th, Smitala in 7th, Mockler in 11th) are past their peaks to one degree or another. There is nobody nearly ready to replace them yet, though they have six players out of the 16 presently ranked 31st-46th, all of them still improving. They will still be a force, but in terms of contending for the WTC crown and maintaining their world's best ranking, that ship has sailed for a while I think.


Coming Up ...

In two weeks we meet Peru for the right to almost certainly face the Czech Republic in the final. This is a lot like the matchups with Germany the last few years; the Herreras are good clay specialists but not nearly so dangerous on other surfaces. It'll be another hardcourt tie, which means we will once again be prohibitively favored.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Semifinals
Peru(8th) vs. Sri Lanka(5th), Hardcourt

Monday: G. Girsh d. T. Herrera, 6-4, 6-0, 7-6(5)
Tuesday: A. Mehul d. M. Herrera, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2
Wednesday: S. Ujjaval/R. Kuttikad d. J. Torres/V. Bureba, 6-3, 6-3, 5-7. 7-6(5)
Thursday: A. Mehul d. T. Herrera, 6-3, 6-1, 6-1
Friday: G. Girsh d. M. Herrera, 6-3, 6-3, 6-4

Sri Lanka defeats Peru, 5-0!!

Again an easier victory than expected. The surprise, make that a shock, was getting the first-ever WTC doubles victory by this year's team of Shreya Ujjaval and Rakesh Kuttikad. Other than that it was pretty much by the book, steady straight-set wins all the way around. We're still 5th, but have a bit of a margin in that spot now over the nations behind us.

Our opponent will be the Czech Republic as expected, but their semi against Italy didn't go as expected. Iglar won his two as anticipated, leading them to a 3-2 win, but the other three rubbers all went the distance. Kinczllers(8-6) and Alberti(9-7) both outlasted Cestmir Marcek in epic matches. If those scores were reversed, it could have been a total skunking in that tie as well. On the other hand, if Italy didn't blow a two-set lead in doubles, losing 7-5 in the 5th set there, they might have actually pulled a stunning upset. It helped their cause playing on grass, but still they could be a force for a few years year with both of their top players still improving.

The ground for the WTC Championship will be indoors, which is definitely an advantage for us. Doubles is basically a guaranteed loss, but it's hard to imagine Marcek giving us any real trouble in singles. That means one upset of Iglar could give us our first-ever title ... and he's at least somewhat vulnerable indoors, as has been demonstrated the last couple of years. If he keeps playing the way he has most of the year it may not matter, but it's a whale of a lot better than having to tango with him on hardcourt. Paris and the Tour Finals will give us a better idea of what kind of chance we have. Right now I'd say the Czechs are still favored, but it's definitely a better shot at it than we had against Germany on clay the last couple seasons. Nice to have favorable luck for a change, and we certainly have had that this year.

Coming Up ...

An off week, and then it's off to Shanghai with everybody playing.

[Brian Swartz]

Shanghai Masters

This tournament was a bit unique. The theme, although it's a bit of an early spoiler, was the consistent dashing of upset dreams. I'm not sure I've ever seen a big tournament in which the favorites escaped so many times, and the format of this report is a bit different than usual for that reason. The early rounds, which tend to be the kindest to seeds, were the toughest. Only one of the eight in play in the first round lost; Federer was knocked off, barely, by Garreth McCuskey whose resurgence continues. Shreya Ujjaval was among the best qualifiers, but converted just 1 of 7 break chances in a straight-sets loss to Mockler. In the second round, there were a pair of upset victims; Marcelo Herrera and Milan Farkas, the latter player reaching the Top 10 for the first time afterwards despite the early loss.

But that's where it ended. All three players to exit were low seeds. From there on out, every match from the third round on, all 15 of them, was won by the higher seed. At that point there were two that could have gone the other way. Thiago Herrera required a third-set tiebreak to get by McCuskey, and Benda took a close three-setter against rising Swede Elias Trulsen. The other six matches were much more one-sided.

In the quarterfinals it got even more interesting. Benda was tested a bit by Herrera and advanced, while Anil Mehul dropped a set before rallying against the ever-dangerous Radek Smitala. Both escaped, while Girsh and Iglar blasted their opponents easily.

The semifinals brought drama in both matches. Antonin Iglar's winning streak stretched to 23 against Girsh by the narrowest of margins, 4-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(2). Girsh had him on the ropes in the second set after stealing the first, but both players dropped serve multiple times prior to the tight tiebreaker. In the third there were no breaks, and after going up a mini-break at 2-1, Girsh lost six straight points and the match along with them. It was played dead-even, and was the first time he'd taken a set from the legend since last year at the same juncture here. A very encouraging effort, but still frustrating to get that close and not get the win. In the other match, Mehul just edged Benda 7-6(5), 7-6(5). The German continues to be more of a threat than he has any right to be, and could well have snagged the year-end #2 spot if he'd won here.

In the final, a fatigued Iglar found his way through another close one, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. Anil Mehul actually slightly outplayed him, but dropped both break points he faced while converting just 1 of 7 on his own end, and that was that. With this, the Czech champion completed a perfect calendar year on hardcourt, something he's never done before -- and in his last two matches Sri Lanka's top two players each had ever chance to stop him and couldn't do it. A good tournament otherwhise but that is a real gut-shot. Six matches in the last three rounds went the distance, and a couple others were close -- the favorites were perfect however. Truth is stranger than fiction sometimes.


Elsewhere ...

Some last-minute entrants meant that Prakash Mooljee faces just as tough a field in the Tier-2 Tiburon challenger as the Tier-1 in Rennes. He was seeded 4th, but all of that ended up not mattering a hill of beans when he was upset in the first round by Djurdje Moicevic(DEU). It was a close loss against another up-and-coming player, a hardcourt specialist, and Moicevic went on to reach, and nearly win, a seedless final. All of that aside, it's still a disappointment to lose this early in a matchup he should usually win. Doubles did go better, as he qualified and made the quarterfinals -- this made the week not a total loss.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the Tour Finals Standings
Post-Shanghai Edition

In

Antonin Iglar -- 13,620
Anil Mehul -- 8,530
Bjorn Benda -- 8,250
Girish Girsh -- 5,900
Cestmir Marcek -- 5,380

Benda just will not go away, and still has a chance at snagging the #2 spot.


Probable

Thiago Herrera -- 4,365
Pierce Gaskell -- 4,350
Radek Smitala -- 4,300

It's not mathematically over, but it might as well be. It's well over a thousand points to the nearest competitors, a very anticlimactic Race this year.

[Brian Swartz]

Early November

An interesting dilemma was in front of us here. With the way the end-of-season schedule is spaced out, Girsh and Mehul could either peak for Paris and the Tour Finals, or for the WTF Final, but not both. Given that we've got a real chance at taking home our ultimate goal as world champions in the WTC, that was chosen. This meant overplaying heading into the other events, which will make them tired by the end.

To get there, both players entered 500-level events the week before Paris. Girish Girsh entered the Valencia Open. He quite surprisingly was extended to a third set by unseeded Roberto Martin in the second round, but crushed all comers the rest of the way with a 6-0, 6-2 beatdown of Condon in the final.

Anil Mehul was back at the Swiss Indoors, where he'd suffered one of the most disappointing losses last year as Federer staged a comeback despite being badly outplayed in the final. After the first round, pretty much ever match was competive. Local veteran Vito Bonamoni, then each of the rising young French players, and finally revenge against Roger Federer himself in the title match, 6-3, 7-6(0). Mehul faced a pair of tiebreaks on the way but did not drop a set.

Mission accomplished, and on to Paris.

[Brian Swartz]

Paris Masters

Paris was, in some ways, the opposite of Shanghai; nothing in the final rounds went as planned. Earlier, Shreya Ujjaval qualified again but lost narrowly to another qualifier, and that was that. Girsh cruised early while Mehul sputtered a bit in his first match, but both made it through to semifinals along with the other members of the elite without losing a set.

Girish Girsh had Antonio Iglar again. Take 24. Only this time, the script flipped and Girsh easily beat the man he'd never beaten in 23 tries, 6-3, 6-4! That was rather anti-climactic. He didn't lose his serve once. On the othr side, Anil Mehul was fairly shockingly upset by Bjorn Benda in what ought to have been a gimme match given Mehul's facility with indoor courts, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4. He was just flat outplayed; Benda was fresher but frankly in this matchup that shouldn't have mattered much.

This left Girsh favored to take his first Masters title ... and he nearly did. Unfortunately, while neither player did well on their break chances, Girsh did particularly poorly at 1-11 and didn't quite have enough at the very end, losing, 6-7(5), 6-4, 7-6(4). Benda, who hadn't won here in five years and hadn't made it past the quarterfinals the last two, all of a sudden seizes the upper hand in the race for #2 again with his second Masters of the year. He's tied for 7th overall with 13.

Elsewhere ...

Prakash Mooljee faced a weak field in Sao Leopoldo, one of four challengers this week. As the top seed and strong favorite, he bashed his way to final with virtually no opposition, then bageled Venezuelan Luco Benauides in the first set of the final ... and still managed to blow it, 0-6, 6-4, 7-6(5). Benauides is an all-rally, no-serve kind of player and a clay specialist, but after that kind of a start this is pretty disastrous.


Up Next ...

Despite the disappointment of losing the Paris final, Girsh has now made three straight in big events and should be able to improve on his round-robin departure from last year in Norway at the Tour Finals. Mehul will go into the event having stunningly dropped behind Benda briefly into the #3 spot, and needing a good result to not stay there. Mooljee will have a week off and then another challenger or two in the final weeks, which have tougher competition as pretty much everyone else has the same idea as well: getting enough matches in to make it through the end-of-the-year break.

[Brian Swartz]

Late November

The end-of-the-year challenger rush is on. The next-to-last week has Prakash Mooljee playing at a tier-3 in Salzburg(indoors). It was the usual; he waltzed his way through the draw as the top seed while losing immediately in a close qualifying doubles match. He'll have another tournament next week to wind up his season.


World Tour Finals Preview

The top spot is secure with Iglar, but Benda has taken over #2 by just over 100 points so that's very much up for grabs between him and Iglar. Girsh and Marcek are all but locked into the 4th and 5th spots, looking for a strong finish to set them up for the next year. At the bottom, first-time qualifier Smitala, two-time semifinalist Gaskell, and Thiago Herrera could finish in any order depending on what happens here; any win for any of them is big with just 205 points separating the trio. For the most though it's the same cast of characters; only Girsh among the younger players, and he's really reached his prime now as far as that goes, has managed to crash the party. He had a very bad practice week leading up to the Finals, so that's a definite concern.

[Brian Swartz]

World Tour Finals
Trondheim, Norway

Group A

Anil Mehul and Bjorn Benda got the better end of the stick at least by rankings, going up against the last two players in the field, Pierce Gaskell and Thiago Herrera. Benda's improbable Paris Masters title a few weeks ago nothwithstanding, he laid a complete egg here and did not win so much as a set. Mehul didn't lose one, while the second semifinal spot was decided on the last day with Gaskell surviving against Herrera 6-7(10), 7-5, 6-3 to get through the round-robin stage for the third straight year in which he was not favored to do so. He must just like the Tour Finals for some reason.


Group B

Girish Girsh blazed through the second group, even knocking off Iglar in a fairly easy three-set encounter. The world #1 needed the full distance to escape the ignominy of being knocked out early, edging Radek Smitala 6-2, 4-6, 7-5 in another third-day nail-biter. Marcek went down pretty easily in all of his matches. It might be his last rodeo here.


Semifinals

I felt confident after all this that one of Sri Lanka's players would take home the title. Girsh did not face a single break point in claiming his fifth straight win over Gaskell, 6-2, 6-4. Mehul and Iglar staged a classic in their 36th meeting, a frustrating 7-6(7), 7-6(7) defeat in which Anil had his chances in both breakers and deserved at least a third set. He narrowly won the points comparison 97-95 and more consistently pressured the legend's serve. Both players defended themselves well, with the server taking 9 of 11 combined break points, and Iglar moved on by the narrowest of margins. It was just a point here, a point there from an all-Sri Lanka championship match.

Finals

Antonin Iglar comes in having lost two indoors matches in the last month to Girish Girsh. Unfortunately this time he blasted Girsh badly, 6-2, 6-4, leaving Sri Lanka's 'junior' star one match short of a big title once again. For Iglar, he becomes the 5th player to win the Tour Finals three times after being defeated by Mehul the last couple of seasons.


Elsewhere ...

Prakash Mooljee's final event of the year was another Tier-3 in Cancun. It was pretty much the usual, he lost in his first doubles match and took his 7th challenger title of the last eight months. It wasn't all easy though; US wildcard Patrick Brewer pushed him to a tiebreak in the semifinals, and top-seeded Ricardo Fagundez of Paraguay gave him a 7-5, 6-3 battle in the final. Mooljee won without losing a set though, and should settle somewhere in the low 70s in the rankings at the end of the year. 50-4 isn't as impressive as 52-1 last season but it's still awfully good; he'll be taking another step up in competition next year though.


Coming Up ...

Mehul and Girsh will be fresher and looking for revenge on Iglar at the World Team Cup Final to end the season. Can't think of a better way to finish off the year.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Finals
Czech Republic(2nd) vs. Sri Lanka(5th), Indoor

So here we are. The plot is simple; Sri Lanka will likely claim it's first-ever championship if either Mehul or Girsh can do what they couldn't manage at the end of the WTF -- knock off Antonin Iglar. Doubles is pretty much a guaranteed loss, and Marcek shouldn't be much of a threat, so it boils down to that. I'd say based on recent events we should be slight favorites here.

Monday -- Iglar vs. Girsh

This right here is our best chance. Girsh got off to a fast start, leading 6-3, 4-1 but then nearly gave the second set away. Iglar came back strong in the third, and the fourth was close for the first half until the world no. 1 saved some break chances in the sixth game, then surged to the lead with a break of his own in the seventh. After leading 2-0, Girsh found himself in a fifth set he should have been able to avoid, and dumped his serve again right away. He was behind for the first time in the match. By the time he got back in the fight it was already 4-0. He won three straight games, but couldn't get the second break back. An epic collapse here, and it may have cost Sri Lanka our first world title. 3-6, 3-6, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4 is the final, a match we won't soon be able to forget. If all else goes well, Mehul will still have a chance to get us the needed win on Thursday ... but this looked over after the first set and a half. It almost certainly should have been over, but it wasn't. A tough one to swallow. The break points tell the story; Iglar was 6 of 9, Girsh 5 of 17. He had every opportunity, particularly in the middle of the fourth when the Czech was serving at 2-3.

[Brian Swartz]

Tuesday
Marcek vs. Mehul

An obvious must-win, and Mehul lost just eight points on his serve. He was still broken at the only opportunity, but it mattered little. He crushed Marcek 6-4, 6-2, 6-3, evening the tie up at 1-all.


Wednesday
L. Nedved/J. Simunek vs. S. Ujjaval/R. Kuttikad

Not a whole lot to say about this as we were never going to have a chance here. 6-3, 6-0, 6-2 was the scoreline. The Czech Republic leads 2-1 now, just one rubber away from victory. It's all on Mehul shoulder's tomorrow now ...

[Brian Swartz]

Thursday
Iglar vs. Mehul

This one would decide the tie. Mehul stayed with the no. 1 for a tight first set, but lost a one-sided tiebreak and mostly disappeared in the second set. He rallied to win a tight third, but went down a break early in the fourth and couldn't get it back. At this point you have to take your hat off to Antonin Iglar, as frustrating as it is; he's now won four straight against us(two in the WTF, two here) on his worst surface. 7-6(2), 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 is the final count here. It's 3-1, and Girsh will almost certainly win on Friday but that's a moot point now.

The Czech Republic wins it's second straight title and third out of the last four years, while Sri Lanka gets as close as you can without winning for the second time in three seasons. We'll get there eventually, but it might have to wait until Iglar descends to the ranks of mere mortality.

[law90026]

That's a tough loss. I have to say though, Iglar is ridiculous in your world.

[Brian Swartz]

Yeah, he definitely is -- and this was arguably his best year yet. Sometimes it's fun going up against an all-time great, and other times I wish he'd just get out of the way for a minute.

Friday
Marcek vs. Girsh

Anticlimactic in more ways than one since the tie was already over, but one dead rubber left to play. Girsh rolled here, 6-2, 6-3, 6-2, surrendering just eight points on serve. Marcek never had a chance. And that's a wrap.

The Czech Republic defeats Sri Lanka 3-2, the same margin we lost to Germany by two years ago. Next week will be the playoff rounds, where we'll find out what the Level 1 field will be in the coming year, and see what our path will be through group play.

[Brian Swartz]

WTC Playoffs

** Switzerland(22nd) vs. Ireland(11th) -- Interesting matchup here between the Swiss looking to extend an unsuccessful two-year stay at the top in which they've won just a single tie, going up against the Irish who are in their third promotion tangle in four years since being sent down. Switzerland has by the far the better players with Ireland an aging shadow of it's former self, and the status quo is maintaind with a 4-1 margin.

** Croatia(8th) vs. Romania(18th) -- Somebody's going up here in a rematch of the Level 2 Final, won by Croatia 4-1. They were sent down two years ago, narrowly avoid bouncing back up in a defeat against Denmark last year, but the Croatians are going to be a force to be reckoned with. Talented 20-year-olds Sava Cirakovic(42nd) and Blagota Cojanovic(78th) could be a major power for a few years when they peak. Another matchup that was basically a foregone conclusion: Croatia is promoted 4-1.

** Luxembourg(15th) vs. Mexico(16th) -- It's strange to have a matchup at this level with no singles player ranked higher than 100th, but that's exactly what we've got here. Luxembourg is in it's fourth promotion playoff from Level 2 in the last five years; they haven't won a single one of them. Mexico meanwhile has been a Level 1 nation for ten straight years now, failing to advance past the quarterfinals in four attempts and generally doing just enough to stay up. Form holds again here; the singles rubbers were split, but Mexico's quality doubles tandem got them a 3-2 win, and they stay up.

** Serbia(30th) vs. Germany(4th) -- A seriously one-sided matchup according to the rankings, though the Germans don't have much other than Benda these days. Serbia's been at the top level the last four years in a row themselves, but has done basically nothing there. Still, this is every bit as one-sided as the rankings would indicate. Germany didn't lose a set despite an unfavorable choice of indoor ground, and the Serbians are relegated.


Summary

Croatia moves up and will be one to watch, Serbia moves down, the other 15 nations in Level 1 will remain as they were. Par for the course generally speaking.

There was a momentous bit of Sri Lanka news as well; after more than 14 years of preparation, Anil Manohar, just over 42 years old, has retired and become a trainer. Manohar had a singles record of 469-275(.630) and was a nearly-identical 468-262(.641) in doubles play. He won just over $150k in total winnings(by comparison, Mooljee is already at $110k). In singles he took home 10 junior and 5 amateur titles, never winning at the futures level with a career-best of 238th shortly after I hired him back in 2030. He was much more successful in doubles, with 3 amateur and 34 futures tournaments won, though a high ranking there of just 430th as he saw most of that success in his later years. It had become increasingly clear over the past several months that he was declining, partly due to focusing on the investment to become a trainer; just two weeks ago, in his last tournament, he failed to qualify in both singles and doubles.

He ends up at a 4.5 level as expected; 4.47 to be more exact was my calculation. By making the switch at the end of this week I was able to get in a few sessions, mostly with Girsh and Mooljee. The goal with Manohar was never about his limited career on the court, but his ability to become a decent trainer for the younger players. Now that this is achieved, my efforts to maximize Sri Lanka's talents will move into a new phase. He'll help the younger players the most of course:

** Anil Mehul will merely get a little bump in rare occasions on his efforts to extend his career, and after that move towards being a premium trainer in his own right. Sri Lanka's most accomplished player ever(at least so far) is now largely past the point of needing a trainer, having begun to go with only singles practice on occasion due to fatigue concerns. I still expect him to be relevant for another 2-4 years on the singles circuit.

** Girish Girsh will see a little more use, as he still regularly is in need of extra matches. That will only be the case for another year or two.

** Prakash Mooljee is expected to make use of Manohar's services the most, pretty much every week most likely for a while as he is still at his physical peak.

** Most importantly, Sri Lanka's next junior phenom will be recruited/created next week, and he will be the first player to be able to make full use of Manohar's skills and accumulated experience. There will be a lot of experimenting going on especially at first, but more on how I plan to approach that situation next week once I get a look at the newcomer.

[Brian Swartz]

And so the year-end spam-posting begins anew ...

2045 WTC Preview

The Czech Republic edges out the United States for the #1 spot in the overall rankings, while Sri Lanka slips a bit with our loss in in the finals but remains 5th, which is still two spots up from where we started the season. We're drawn in Group 3 again, facing off against Germany(4th), Italy(12th), and Denmark(19th). Should be trivial to advance, especially since we'll get the Germans on hardcourt and not on their favored clay. Most of the groups are pretty equal except #2, which has the Czech Republic(1st), Argentina(3rd), France(6th), and Mexico(16th). Either France or Argentina loses out there, and that should be a fascinating matchup. We'll definitely be aiming to win our group, and hopefully get a favorable draw afterwards.

2045 Top 10 National Rankings

With the heights we've ascended to, I thought I would start showing this annually also.

1. Czech Republic -- 2566
2. United States -- 2547
3. Argentina -- 2287
4. Germany -- 2162
5. Sri Lanka -- 2067
6. France -- 2045
7. Spain -- 2033
8. Croatia -- 1978
9. Peru -- 1973
10. Austria -- 1907

For quite some time now, the Czechs and Americans have been well ahead of everyone else. We're gaining ground on them though, slowly but surely.

[Brian Swartz]

Finally time to create my new player today. Here's how it went ...

Ritwik Suksma

** Age: 14y25w. Usually they end up about here, will have a birthday around Wimbledon similar to Mooljee.
** Raw Skill/Service: 5 skill, 1 service. That's quite low, I think Girsh started at 10-12 skill or somesuch. Does it matter all that much? No, just means he starts off a hair behind.
** Mentality: 3.6. Every player I've created so far has been in the 3.4-3.8 range, so this is right down the middle.
** Aging Factor: 96%. Decent, using 'Peaks Late' I've never gotten higher than 97, so 95-97 is the range I think.
** Talent: 4.4. Not super, same as Mehul/Girsh, Mooljee was better at 4.7.
** Peak Athleticism: 2.9 strength, 2.4 speed. This is quite bad for a created player, seems the average is about 6.5 combined. 5.3 here is yuck.
** Peak Endurance: 3.7. This gives a combined TE of 8.1, and is again subpar. Girsh, Mehul, Mooljee all in the 4.2-4.5 range.

Summary

So I actually like his name, aging factor and talent are ok, but overall this is a bad fish. By far the worst result overall I've gotten for a created player. Fortunately I have enough credits right now to try again -- so Mr. Suksma is fired and will soon be available for someone else to pick him up. this isn't to say he's horrid, he could be a Top 50 player probably, but he's below the standard I usually get and am looking for. There is some risk here because I've only got 1-2 more shots at this; I need my luck to improve.

Take Two

Ritwik Dudwadkar

I guess Ritwik is the name of choice in Sri Lanka for boys these days. Last name is a bit of a tongue-twister. But let's see what he's got ...

** Age: 14y29w. A little on the older side, so that's a small strike against him.
** Raw Skill/Service: 7 skill, 4 service. That's pretty decent actually. Seen better, seen worse.
** Mentality: 3.5. Just a hair below-average.
** Aging Factor: 96%. Decent
** Talent: 4.5. Not as good as Mooljee but still pretty good. Starting to feel a bit better about this.
** Peak Athleticism: 2.8 strength, 3.8 speed. Not as good as Mooljee, and I'd like the strength to be higher but this is the fastest player I've had with any I've created.
** Peak Endurance: 4.4. That's better than anyone I've had other than Mehul.

Summary

There's always something you can complain about, but this is solid. 8.9 TE, 6.6 SS on Mark's evaluation system. Pretty low home advantage at 2.3 but I don't care since nobody plays in Sri Lanka anyway. Should be right in the same category as my existing players, thrown in the fact that he'll have a trainer the whole time and he could well be the best of the bunch. This one i'm not throwing back, so get used to the name Dudwadkar. Just don't ask me to pronounce it :P.

[Brian Swartz]

2054 Final Top Ten Rankings

1. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 28) -- 15,030

Iglar just had arguably his finest overall year -- and that's saying something. He tied his lowest number of defeats ever(5) and was one off his best for wins(88). He's cemented his place as one of the top all-time greats -- more on that in a bit -- and will likely stay at the top of the rankings for at least another couple of years.

2. Anil Mehul(SRI, 28) -- 9,790

A slightly disappointing season for Mehul, but he managed to stay in the #2 spot despite a brief blip. It's no longer presumed that he'll stay there, but he had his third-straight 70-win season(75-15) and will still be a major factor some while yet.

3. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 30) -- 9,330

Benda has refused to go quietly. His shocking first title at the Paris Masters gave him 13 total Masters Shields, good for an 8th-place tie on the all-time list. He's impressively managed to keep his serve at a world-class level despite the advance of time, and is still the best clay-courter in the world.

4. Girish Girsh(SRI, 25) -- 8,050

A strong finish for the most part allowed Girsh to make some serious inroads on the usual challengers ahead of him, and it may not be long before he surpasses them.

5. Cestmir Marcek(CZE, 30) -- 5,510

Reality is finally starting to set in for Marcek, now merely the best of the third tier. He lost 26 matches this year, four more than in any previous season, though he did equal his best of a year ago with 64 victories. Still, he's looking more and more vulnerable these days.

6. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 28) -- 4,710

It looks like Gaskell may well lose the top US spot to Smitala soon. He continues to play a ridiculously reckless schedule, racking up 108 singles matches this year. His speed is slowly becoming less of a weapon, and he could be looking at the beginning of the end.

7. Radek Smitala(USA, 27) -- 4,680

Smitala is the polar opposite of Gaskell, making the most of his gifts by playing a sparse schedule. He was only involved in 19 tournaments, two fewer than any other Top 10 player. It looks like time is running out on him now; his best tennis is probably a year behind him, but he still has a chance to become the USA's top player for a bit.

8. Thiago Herrera(PER, 27) -- 4,475

The occasional good result off clay has elevated Herrera into the middle of the pack here.

9. Gustavo Caratti(ARG, 25) -- 3,125

Caratti's going to be around for a while, and his athleticism should allow him to gradually pick off the older players in front of him.

10. Mugur Kinczllers(ITA, 25) -- 3,060

In and out of the first page this year, Kinczllers notably knocked off Benda a couple times, and made Masters semifinals in Rome and Cincinatti. Just needs a little more consistency.

Journeyman Milan Farkas, the Czech no. 3, made a brief appearance last year and could do so again. The next few behind him are on the decline, but after them there are some younger faces charging. Elias Trulsen(SWE, 25), Tobia Alberti(ITA, 25), along with the young French players that have been discussed before, Poilblan and Bourdet, are all continuing to push their way upwards. I'm not sure anyone in that quartet makes the Top 10 this year, at least until I take a closer look, but they'll be knocking on the door most likely.

[Brian Swartz]

It's now time to hearken back to one of the first few posts I made in this dynasty.

All-Time Greats

Until recently, there were four who distinguished themselves in the history of this world as being head and shoulders above the rest. There is now a fifth member of the club, which I loosely define as anyone with double-digit Slam titles(there is nobody who has won more than 7 and less than 11). Here's what I wrote then about the top players ever, slightly edited and updated:


1. Eric Gorritepe(ESP). Gorritepe knows no rival, contemporary or historic. He combines the durability and competitiveness of a Davydenko or Nadal with the skill of a Federer, the best of all possible combinations. His reign of terror only recently abated just before this dynasty commenced, in the late 2030s. 2027-2037 looks like his era spread, with the last great ride being a final at the Australian just this past season. While nobody before him actually achieved the CYGS, he did it four times('29, '30, '32, and '33) and came one match short at the '31 Wimbledon. American Johnny Napier beat him in a five-set classic, coming from down 2-1 to provide the only major blemish in a five-year run the likes of which tennis has never seen before and will likely never see again. On both sides of that loss, Gorritepe won 10 straight Slams and won all five tour finals in those years as well. The final numbers for his unmatched career:

Slams: 23(1st, six more than Sullivan)
Tour Finals: 6(1st, one more than Prieto)
Masters: 52(1st, 20!! more than Sullivan)
500: 18(2nd, though only half of Prieto's number)


2. Martin Prieto(ESP). In the early years of the tour, there was Prieto and then there was everyone else. He also was a force for an 11-year period, 1995-2005. For decades it looked as if nobody would touch him. Twice he had three Slams, the tour finals, and a semifinal Slam loss as the only blemish on the big events. Overall he took home 16 Slams, one fewer than Sullivan. 30 Masters also ranks him third, just behind the Irishman, but Martin's 36 titles in 500 events put him over the top in my estimation, along with his 5 tour finals which is also second-best. No other player has won more than half that many. You can make an argument either way, but I place Prieto here.

3. Nicholas Sullivan(IRE). This is the one controversial spot on the list. Sullivan's 17 Slams place him second all-time, prompting some to think he should be up a spot. There are good reasons to place him here though. No question he was a great, great player. Sullivan was making appearances in the second week of Slams from 2016-2026, an impressive period of longevity. He came even closer than Haresign to the CYGS but did not quite make it in 2019. After dropping the Australian final in four sets, to Carl Hamilton, the longtime #2 during his reign and also from Ireland, Sullivan swept the remaining three Slams and the tour finals, taking the last four Masters titles for good measure. He is second in all-time Masters with 32, but like Haresign did not do much at the smaller events.

4. Oliver Haresign(USA). Haresign flourished from 2022-2029, winning 11 Slams(4th) and two tour finals(T-5th). He is not nearly as accomplished as the three above him on this list, but far better than anyone not on it. In 2026 he won the first three Slams and lost in the final at the USO, nearly sweeping the season. Countryman Jason Coxetter, himself a fine player and ranking third at the time, stopped him in straight sets. Haresign has 23 Masters titles(also 4th all-time) though he did not do much at smaller events.


A New Legend

The much-discussed Antonin Iglar, who still has time to increase his portfolio, now clearly belongs on this list. In fact, over the past few months his achievements have grown to the point where we can comfortably knock Haresign down to 5th. Here's how their careers compare:

** Slam Titles: Iglar 13(4th), Haresign 11(5th)
** Tour Finals Titles: Iglar 3(T-4th), Haresign 2(T-6th)
** Masters Titles: Iglar 24(4th), Haresign 23(5th)
** Olympics Titles: Haresign 1, Iglar 0
** Weeks at #1: Haresign 228(4th), Iglar 198(5th)
** Prize Money: Haresign $84M(3rd), Iglar $50.8M(not in Top 10)

When it comes to longevity, Haresign has the upper hand, but in winning the big titles he's behind in everything except the Olympics. With the massive lead Iglar has in the rankings, he'll overtake at least the Weeks at #1 spot as well. Haresign's won more 500-level events(5-1) but fewer 250s(15-1 Iglar). If you look at dominance, Iglar is the only man other than Gorritepe to lose six or fewer matches in a season -- and he's done it three times now.

He hasn't won enough at RG or Wimbledon to have a prayer at catching the unapproachable Spaniard, but Iglar has a good chance to threaten Prieto and Sullivan on this rundown as well before he hangs it up. The total body of work is scary-good, and worth taking a moment to recognize. It will be a long time, and maybe never, before there is another member of this club.

[Brian Swartz]

It is now officially 2055. This week we begin anew our quest for a WTC Title against Italy, but while that happens it's time to take a look at the year ahead.

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Anil Mehul -- 1st to 2nd singles. This may well be the last time Mehul is Sri Lanka's top player at the beginning of the season. With Manohar hanging it up, he's the only one of my original players from 14 years ago that is now left. I think he'll be relevant, though declining, for at least another three years on the singles stage; at the same time, it's worth keeping tabs on his trainer progress since he'll be the next one several years down the road. Right now he scores a 4.12.

Girish Girsh -- 5th to 4th singles, unranked to 612th doubles. Girsh struggled at the start, contributing to him losing three more matches(20) than a year ago; he also won nine more, a new high of 75. Late in the year he reached four consecutive finals(Cincinatti Masters, USO, Paris Masters, World Tour Finals) but did not win any of the events and had the crushing collapse in the World Team Cup. What he hasn't shown so far is the ability to consistently avoid major letdowns for a full year. That's all that's holding back from taking Mehul's place right now.

Shreya Ujjaval -- 52nd singles, 125th doubles. Ujjaval still plays too much but not as badly as he used to. He was able to consistently qualify for Masters events(five times) and had good, but not great results on the challenger circuit. No titles this year, although he did come close. Ujjaval is good enough to crack the Top 32, but whether he does or not is anothe story. He is improving quite steadily, up about 50 spots roughly from a year ago, but tends to bite off a little more than he can chew. It'll be an interesting year for him.

Prakash Mooljee -- 232nd to 72nd singles, 2120th to 617th doubles. Doubles success continues to evade Mooljee, but he had another outstanding year in singles. Like Ujjaval, he is now set to enter his 'Challenger Hero' season. He had a pair of futures titles and won all four tier-3 challengers he entered last season, but had more mixed results in the tier-2s; three early-round exits to go with a trio of titles and a runner-up placing. He'll be stepping it up another level this year, an early tier-1 is basically forced by the schedule, and after that he'll be playing his first slam in Australia. Results in those first two events will go a considerable way towards determining where he plays in the following months. There've been some great practice weeks lately as Mooljee is ranked as high as he deserves, perhaps even a bit too high. By comparison, Girsh was 98th at the same age plus six weeks, though he had done better in doubles(424th). This year Mooljee should either be just in or just out of the Top 32, depending on his results. He's not as good as the top challenger players yet, but he's getting there.

Ritwik Dudwadkar -- unranked. The newest addition will have a few weeks of practice before his first junior event gets him started. He's going to be a guinea pig of sorts in figuring out when to use Manohar's training services.

Manager Ranking -- 3rd to 2nd, 30.6k points to 33.0k. Finally passed Hayato, and -- assuming I can stay there -- the only thing left to do is the long, long slog of trying to narrow the gap to oprice, still almost 30k there. Not going anywhere for a while :P .

[Brian Swartz]

2045 Preview

1. Antonin Iglar(87%, 10.07, -0.13)

Iglar is actually a smidgeon older than Mehul in terms of aging, even though he is several months younger. Having said that, he's still the unquestioned king of the hill and it's hard to see that changing in the next year or two.

2. Anil Mehul(87%, 9.86, +0.01)

Anil will start seeing his abilities decline from here on out on an annual basis; his body just can't take the training workload it once could. I do think he'll be able to hold his own until he's at least 31 though, three years from now. Hopefully he's got one more big year in him somewhere in there.

3. Bjorn Benda(82%, 9.65, -0.02)

Benda is now closer to 31 than 30, but his game isn't really showing it. He's done a fantastic job maintaining his serve, and is as effective a player as I've seen anyone be at his age since the incomparable Gorritepe. Most of the Top 10 even still is far beneath him.

4. Girish Girsh(93%, 9.91, +0.11)

It's all about consistency for Girsh as I've mentioned. He's pretty much exactly on par right now with where Mehul was at his peak -- but he hasn't made the most of those skills yet, too often falling short against inferior competition. I'm not as sure as I was a few years ago that he'll ever make it to #1, but for the next 2-3 years he can be right there a couple steps behind Iglar if the Czech legend slips, ready to take advantage. That's if , and only if, he can put his underachieving days behind him. There's also a chance he could be the first Sri Lankan to, if only briefly, break the 10.0 barrier ...

5. Cestmir Marcek(82%, 9.29, -0.14)

Marcek finally returned to reality the last few months. You have to admire the way he stepped up for the year or two prior to that, but you don't win matches with positive feelings and respect. I expect a gradual decline, and most likely it will be Farkas instead who is Iglar's partner for the world-champion Czechs in the WTC by the time this year comes to an end.

6. Pierce Gaskell(86%, 9.7, -0.09)

Still good enough to be a threat, still mismanaged enough not to be a major one.

7. Radek Smitala(86%, 9.15, -0.14)

It was fun while it lasted; Smitala's year or two of fun is basically over now.

8. Thiago Herrera(88%, 9.32, +0.04)

Still the #2 on clay, and still getting a little better past the point where you'd expect it. Herrera may well move up a little more in the coming season.

9. Gustavo Caratti(94%, 9.32, +0.08)

Caratti will go as far as his power can take him, and right now Girsh is the only player ahead of him who isn't on the downswing or about to be. He's looking to restore the glory of Argentine tennis, and should take this push further in the next couple of years.

10. Mugur Kinczllers(92%, 9.25, +0.08)

Kinczllers is the opposite of Caratti -- he's developed a world-class serve and is very good from the baseline as well, but doesn't have as much athleticism to back it up with. His ceiling isn't as high, but he should be able to push upwards also.

11. Milan Farkas(87%, 9.2, --)

Could crash the Top 10 party again; he's been right on the edge of it for a while now. He's the last of a group basically forming the 6-10 or so spots that should be packed close together and very competitive. Further down the ladder, there are finally more talented players chasing them ...

16. Elias Trulsen(93%, 9.54, --)

Trulsen started making some noise last year; he has a good serve and great athleticism. He's spent too much time on doubles and doesn't have the goods at the elite level from the back of the court, but I still have him right now sixth-best player in the world. He definitely has my vote to move into the Top 10 this year. He could even surpass Caratti as the biggest generational threat to Girsh if things go well for him.

17. Tobia Alberti(92%, 9.33, --)

Another very good athlete, though not quite as good, who has developed his skills to the point of being ready to rise up. He doesn't have a ton of time left to do so though ...

18. Theodore Bourdet(96%, 9.19, +0.15)

Didn't improve as much as you'd hope this year; needs to spend more time on his rally game. Having said that, Bourdet's still fairly young and good enough to keep moving upward.

21. Davide Poilblan(94%, 9.21, +0.04)

Disappointing year training and on the court. If he doesn't make a jump this year, it may never happen.

24. Afanasy Bereznity(97%, 9.1, +0.08)

Creeping his way up slowly, but he's not quite ready yet. Overall though, there's an increasingly dangerous group of youngish or coming-into-their-prime players pushing their way up. In a couple years, the competition for Top 10 spots could be a lot stronger.

52. Shreya Ujjaval(99%, 8.99, +0.35)

The serve is lacking, but he should keep moving up. There aren't many better outside of the Top 20 at this point .

72. Prakash Mooljee(99%, 8.77, +0.55)

Right on track with where Girsh was at his age(8.79), and about another year at his physical peak before things get a little more difficult. He should be able to pass about half of the players ahead of him this season, give or take.

NR(J). Ritwik Dudwadkar(60%, 2.45, --)

Just beginning his journey.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Group 3, First Round
Italy(12th) vs. Sri Lanka(5th), Indoors

Monday: G. Girsh d. M. Kinczllers, 6-1, 6-3, 6-0
Tuesday: A. Mehul d. T. Alberti, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2
Wednesday: X. Jue/A. El Brazi d. S. Ujjaval/R. Kuttikad, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2
Thursday: A. Mehul d. M. Kinczllers, 6-2, 6-1, 6-0
Friday: G. Girsh d. T. Alberti, 6-4, 7-5, 6-4

Sri Lanka defeats Italy, 4-1!

Obvious result is obvious here, only the Czechs really have a chance against us on an indoor court. Only the final, dead rubber was even competitive. A bit surprised Girsh wasn't able to win that one more decisively, but he was never in all that much danger. We stay in 5th ahead of France who also won, and behind Germany who won as well. The latter is our next opponent, and you can pretty much pencil in the winner as the Group 3 champion.

Coming Up Next ...

Mooljee heads to Noumea for his first-ever tier-1 challenger, where he'll likely be one of the lower seeds at best. The week after that, Girsh and Mehul will get a warmup 250 to get themselves set for the Australian Open .

[Umbrella]

I finally got a trainer in my game, and went looking around to find a new young player. I saw a promising young guy from Sri Lanka. None other than one Ritwik Suksma. I know you weren't high on him, but he looks like the best of the 14 year olds that I could find. He's not as strong as my other youngster, but we'll see how he pans out. Although by my calculations, his peak endurance is 4, not 3.7. Hopefully I am doing it right.

[Brian Swartz]

Cool, good luck! He's not bad, just not as good as my other players. I took a look at him again ... I think you are right on the endurance. Looks like I did the bad math there, though I still would have cut him.

[Brian Swartz]

Fell a little behind here, although I seem to have had company in that with the other RR dynasties. Regardless, let's get moving again.

January

First up was Prakash Mooljee, and I guessed wrong in sending him to Sao Paolo instead of Noumea. He ended up barely as the 8th seed, where he would have been sixth in the other one. Last-minute entries will do that to you sometimes, and there's a few AI players down here -- you never know what they are going to do. Anyway, Mooljee got through a couple of potentially dangerous early-round matches, then lost to Zourab Andronikov(GRG). It wasn't close -- 6-2, 6-2 -- but that's not a huge surprise. Mooljee is almost a year away from being at the Georgian #1's level; Andronikov is the kind of player who should be out of the challenger field soon, and I'm a bit surprised it hasn't happened already. He would go on to lose very narrowly in the final.

The next week, I screwed up with my top players, entering them both in Sydney(250). I intended to send one each there and to Auckland. Gaskell was the beneficiary of my mess-up. As it was in Sydney, both had more trouble than expected in the quarterfinals. Mehul escaped Federer, and Girsh narrowly got through against Bourdet, both in tight three-set matches. It was smooth sailing in the semis, and Mehul reversed last year's trend in winning 6-4, 7-5 to take the title. It was one of those where it all came down to a few break points. Girsh had the more consistent pressure, but lost all three of his chances while Mehul snagged 2 of 3, and that was the match.

[Brian Swartz]

Australian Open

Lots of players to cover here, with Mooljee getting his debut. The big storyline is the fact that Iglar has beaten Mehul in four straight finals here. Would Girsh be able to break up the dominance that pair has shown down under?

Opening Rounds

As usual, I'll start from the bottom up. Prakash Mooljee had a fairly friendly draw for his first Slam, which is always nice. Could have been better, but could have been a lot worse at all. WC Nawal Sebban -- sorry, Deacon! -- was fairly easy pickings in the first round, 6-3 in all three sets. Next up was Elias Trulsen, my pick for the year's top riser. He dismantled Mooljee 6-2, 6-4, 6-2, and it actually wasn't quite even that close. Trulsen is in the shrinking class of players that are totally out of Mooljee's league, so I didn't expect much.

Shreya Ujjaval has stalled just outside the Top 50 it seems over the last few months. He had a nice run to the third round here last season. This time he won a tough four-setter over a spanish qualifier, then was smashed with only one competitive set against Afanasy Bereznity. Bereznity would go on to reach his second Slam quarterfinal in his last three(also at Wimbledon last year). If he gets some consistency, the 24th-ranked Russian could still be a threat to a lot of the players ahead of him.

Girsh and Mehul both cruised through the first three rounds. Girsh kept that going with a one-sided beatdown of Federer in the fourth, while Anil Mehul had a bit more trouble with Gustavo Caratti. The Argentine is getting more dangerous all the time, and took the first set before Mehul rallied for a hard-fought 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 7-5 victory. Caratti's serve was on point, taking the ace count 28-19, but it wasn't quite enough.

I'd expected to have Dudwadkar play his first juniors tournament, but I held off a week as he was worn out from his first few weeks of practice.

[Brian Swartz]

Australian Open -- Second Week

Along with Bereznity, former #7 Perry Mockler, an afterthought for nearly a year now, was a surprise quarterfinalist after surviving a 10-8 fifth set against his better fellow American Radek Smitala. Mockler went away quickly here though, thanks to Iglar. Benda smacked Bereznity around pretty good, while Mehul had only a few tense moments in the third set against Cestmir Marcek, still coming through easily in straights. Girsh Girsh looked about the same against Pierce Gaskell, leading 2-0 before losing a tense tiebreaker in the third. After the wheels came off in the fourth, it looked like a repeat of last year's WTC final against Iglar. He saved the match, barely, 6-4, 6-4, 6-7(5), 1-6, 6-3, but it shouldn't have gone that far.

Iglar and Benda had a very tight first set in the first semifinal, but after the Czech squeezed through in a tiebreak, the German veteran folded and it was over in three. Once again the world's top player was through to the final here, and he'd taken on one of my power pair who were set to go in the second semi. It was all Girsh in the first set, but he didn't do a whole lot afterwards. Anil Mehul's second win in as many weeks over his younger rival served notice that he isn't quite done yet as the top player in Sri Lanka tennis, 1-6, 6-1, 6-4, 6-4. Just like in Sydney, Girsh played well enough overall to win but Mehul's serve(17 aces to 10) came through more when things were tight, and Anil's experience allowed him to seize more opportunities.

So, for the 5th year in a row, it's Iglar vs. Mehul. A couple of the matches have been very close, with last year's going the distance, and the two before that taking four sets. This time, Mehul won a pair of very close sets at the outset, but the Czech legend didn't take this lying down. An easy third, and then a tight fourth-set breaker had them going to a fifth set again. This time though, it was Mehul who got the last laugh, 7-5, 7-6(3), 2-6, 6-7(8), 6-3! An epic final, and a huge victory here for Anil. Over more than five years, Iglar had won the last 11 hard-court Slam tournaments. Not this one. Not today. Mehul claims his 4th Slam title, first away from Wimbledon, and strangely now holds more of them at the moment(2, 1 each for Iglar and Benda) despite still being thousands of points down in the rankings due to other results. It's a heck of a start to the year for him, and a second straight match that he won in the key spots despite being slightly outplayed. Give yourself a chance enough times, and eventually you might come through. That's exactly what happened here. The head-to-head is now 26-12 Iglar -- this was his first hardcourt loss though in a year and a half. A sign of things to come? That remains to be seen.

Elsewhere ...

Ritwik Dudwadkar had his first juniors event, and lost competitive qualifying matches in both singles and doubles.

Coming Up . ..

The important WTC tie against Germany is up next week. Mooljee will be training, and Dudwadkar will try his luck in another tier-5 juniors due to only getting a couple of matches this time.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Group Three, Second Round
Sri Lanka(5th) vs. Germany(4th), Hardcourt

Monday: A. Mehul d. S. Baune, 6-2, 6-2, 6-1
Tuesday: G. Girsh d. B. Benda, 6-4, 6-2, 6-4
Wednesday: H. Arendt/E. Ercan d. S. Ujjaval/R. Kuttikad, 6-0, 4-6, 6-2, 6-4
Thursday: A. Mehul d. B. Benda, 6-2, 6-4, 6-2
Friday: G. Girsh d. S. Baune, 6-1, 6-0, 6-0

Sri Lanka defeats Germany, 4-1!

That was rather one-sided. The match with Girsh was closer than the score indicates, but Bjorn Benda got absolutely crushed by Mehul. Even won a set in the doubles. We're still 5th, but nearly eliminated to gap with Germany with the win here. We're now guaranteed to top spot in Group 3, and the final tie will be against 19th-ranked Denmark, who doesn't have a player near the Top 50.

Elsewhere ...

Ritwik Dudwadkar played a rare home tournament in Colombo. He lost in singles again first time out, but qualified and reach the semis in doubles. This gets him into the juniors rankings officially, at #1317.

Coming Up ...

There's a break in the schedule now. I don't expect Mehul or Girsh to take the court for the next month, until Indian Wells. Mehul is 15-0 -- it'll be interesting to see if he can maintain this level of perfection in a few weeks. Girsh has lost twice, both to Mehul, so that's not terrible but he's got to win those matchups if he's to move up. Still a solid #4, with a big gap ahead and behind him right now.

Mooljee will be in Dallas next week for a tier-2 event; the following week there's only one challenger, and there's no reason to risk a crowded field. If he does well that's probably his only event of the break. Dudwadkar will take a couple weeks off, and play at least one more tournament during this timeframe as well.

[Brian Swartz]

February/March

Mehul and Girsh both took the month off as expected to practice, and both had an overall disappointing year last year in the first two Masters about to commence. There's an opportunity here for both of them starting in Indian Wells which will soon begin.

Prakash Mooljee had a rather unfortunate draw at the tier-2 Dallas challenger. In the quarterfinals he played Joseph Skirrow(USA, 47th), the best player in the draw and the one player who is basically an equal. Skirrow won 6-4, 7-5, and it was the usual one-match doubles exit. Mooljee will be playing at Kyoto(CH2, Indoors), which has by far the weakest field of the two challengers this week and expecting a better result.

Ritwik Dudwadkar had another tier-5 juniors in Yerevan, winning his qualifying match in doubles but losing again in singles. He'll be back out there again, this time in Noumea, France, in the upcoming week.

With everybody playing somewhere it will be a busy period, with the eyes of the tennis world focused the most on how long Mehul's unbeaten streak to start the year will last ...

[Umbrella]

I don't know if this is hijacking your thread, since your goal is to get Sri Lanka #1 in the world, and I have a Sri Lanka player, but Ritwik Suksma won his first singles match in Trnava, making it to the first round proper. He's done OK in doubles as well, reaching a semi-final and runner up so far.

My other (more promising) youngster is playing in Noumea, so maybe he'll meet Dudwadkar.

[Brian Swartz]

Not at all. I have no problem with this thread becoming a general 'RR1' update thread or whatever if you want to post stuff about your players go right ahead.

It's always interesting to me playing against other people's guys -- I've had a couple of times where my top players beat up on deacon's journeyman, but having a real rivalry even if only in juniors would be cool.

[ntndeacon]

I actually got rid of him and picked up Siobhan O'Doherty to be a trainer. As soon as I get him to the requisite number of points, I'll make the transition.
My junior Javier Canolli is up to 10th in the junior standings. He won't have a long career with and age factor of 104% but I 'll work on getting my next one to have a lessor factor.

[Umbrella]

Canolli is how I realized you were in world 1. I recognized your name when looking at the junior rankings.

[Umbrella]

Not at all. I have no problem with this thread becoming a general 'RR1' update thread or whatever if you want to post stuff about your players go right ahead.

It's always interesting to me playing against other people's guys -- I've had a couple of times where my top players beat up on deacon's journeyman, but having a real rivalry even if only in juniors would be cool.

Well in that case, the youngster I am the most excited about, Jakob Heinen, got his first trophy, a doubles win in Noumea (JG5).

[Brian Swartz]

Yay! I did slightly less well, losing both qualifying matches :P.

[Brian Swartz]

Indian Wells Masters

Shreya Ujjaval improved slightly on his first-round exit a year ago, beating journeyman Falk Gries of Germany in the first round before a competitive loss to 12th-seed Marcelo Herrera. This will help him bounce back a bit, as his ranking is slipping -- he was down well into the 60s coming in.

Our power duo had little trouble in the first week. Girish Girsh had his second competitive matchup with Alberti in the fourth round, but got through in straight sets. The quarterfinals had him matched with Perry Mockler, who backed up a surprising run at the AO by upsetting Gaskell in the previous round. He kept it going here, as Girsh thoroughly embarrassed himself after taking the first set in a 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 setback. He was just 1 of 9 on break chances in an evenly played match. Mockler is on fire right now, but it's still humiliating -- Girsh should virtually never lose to a player of this caliber, and he hasn't been able to sustain the momentum from the end of last year unfortunately.

Anil Mehul trounced Elias Trulsen, while another surprise quarterfinalist, Theodore Bourdet, almost upstaged Benda before falling in a heartbreaker, 5-7, 7-6(2), 7-6(4). Hard to play better than that without winning. Mockler had the next shot at Sri Lanka's best player, and he gave it a run but Mehul stopped him in a serve-dominated match, saving all three break points he faced.

Antonin Iglar was the opponent in the final as you'd expect. He looked to be in pretty dominating form here and that didn't change. Mehul hung in for most of the first set but the dam broke towards the end of it in a 6-4, 6-1 defeat, ending a career-best 20-match win streak to start the year. He only managed to get one break chance on the Iglar serve -- the world no. 1 was in legend mode this fortnight, nobody was going to beat him, nobody came close to even taking a set.

Elsewhere ...

Prakash Mooljee stared at the Kyoto(tier-2 challenger) draw in a bit of disbelief when he saw more late entrants, among them Joseph Skirrow to whom he'd lost his last match. Both cruised to the semis, but this time Mooljee won 6-4, 7-5. He thumped German Djurdje Moicevic, who he's had trouble with in the past, in the final to claim his first title of the year and 8th challenger overall. He also did much better in doubles than usual, qualifying and reaching the quarterfinals. I think the win over Skirrow(presently 46th) was his first over a Top-50 player. He's also been doing a little better against players of that level in practice weeks, though he's still not a match for the best of the challenger players yet. It's progress though, and he's up into the mid-50s now.

Ritwik Dudwadkar had a tough day at the Noumea JG5, losing both qualifying matches. His singles match was a weird one -- two close tiebreaks went against him, in a match that saw 22 breaks in 24 service games.


Coming Up ...

The big guns have another Masters in Miami. It'll be a busy week again, with Mooljee probably heading to Africa for another tier-2 challenger, and Dudwadkar hoping the fifth time's the charm in terms of getting his first solo juniors victory.

[Brian Swartz]

Miami Masters

More of the same for Shreya Ujjaval, a pretty easy first-round win and then a loss to the Peruvian Herrera clan. This time it was Tiago.

There were some close matches in the early rounds, but none involving my guys until the fourth. Girish Girsh narrowly avoided defeat against Caratti, and I do mean narrowly. 5-7, 7-5, 7-6(11)! Had to save 9 of 11 break points to do it, and it was one of those coin-flip affairs, not just in the epic tiebreak that ended it either. Mehul made the second week as well on cruise control.

Popping over to the other players, Prakash Mooljee had another tier-2 event at Marrakech. He was seeded third, and potential rival Jonathan Ardant(FRA) took a close tiebreak ... and then was served a pair of bagels in the quarterfinals. He did well from there, winning the tournament in straight sets including a semifinal victory over top-seeded Vito Brandini(ITA, 45th). Another sign he's ready to move up into the Top 50 himself there.

Ritwik Dudwadkar's latest outing saw him lose in singles qualifying again -- the fifth straight time -- and qualify in doubles before falling in the quarters there. He still definitely hasn't gotten over the hump.

Back in Miami for the conclusion the next week, Girsh had an easy one over Kinczllers and it was Anil Mehul's turn to struggle. Gaskell nearly broke a 13-match losing streak against the world no. 2, but he got through eventually 6-4, 6-7(3), 7-5. The semifinals were a joke, both of them. Antonin Iglar crushed Girsh horribly, 6-2, 6-1. Not a shame to lose; but to not even compete is another story. Meanwhile Mehul dispatched Benda almost as easily.

All of the big three hardcourt tournaments this year have had the same matchup in the finals. This one was closer than Indian Wells, but not as close as the 7-5, 7-6(4) score would indicate. Regardless, Iglar takes it again for his 26th Masters Shield.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 28) -- 14,230

A narrow loss in the Australian Open final is his only blemish this year. His lead has decreased, but it's still a pretty big cushion.

2. Anil Mehul(SRI, 29) -- 11,340

A great start to the year for Mehul, who looks much better than he did this time last season. He's a stellar 26-2 to start the year.

3. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 30) -- 9,610

A little more consistent to start this year than last. Still a top 5 player pretty much anywhere.

4. Girish Girsh(SRI, 25) -- 8,020

Basically treading water. He hasn't started this year as well as he finished the last one.

5. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 28) -- 5,140

Sort of in no-man's land right now, Gaskell can rarely challenge the top players but is much better than anyone else.

6. Cestmir Marcek(CZE, 31) -- 4,620

Gradually losing his grip.

7. Thiago Herrera(PER, 27) -- 4,240

Thiago is just sort of hanging out with solid but not impressive results. He'll probably pick up another spot but he's not getting any better.

8. Radek Smitala(USA, 27) -- 3,935

Smitala's moment has come and gone; he could be out of the Top 10 by year's end.

9. Mugur Kinczllers(ITA, 26) -- 3,420

Not good enough yet to grab a better placement, Kinczllers is waiting for it to be handed to him. It will, eventually, but he's pretty much peaked in terms of his ability so he's probably never going to crack the Top 5.

10. Gustavo Caratti(ARG, 25) -- 3,125

Caratti seems primed for a big move on clay. He only had one good result out of the three big events last year, and is probably the guy who will eventually dethrone Benda on the surface. If not this year, soon.

Elias Trulsen(13th) and Theodore Boudret(14th) have been moving steadily upwards, while Farkas tumbles. They could push into the Top 10 later in the year, but they've got some distance to go yet and it's over 500 points that Caratti has on the rest of the field right now. Should be a pretty stable group at least until the summer.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Anil Mehul -- 2nd singles(unchanged). Mehul has narrowed the gap to just under 3k points with Iglar, and pulled away from Benda somewhat. At this point his goal is just to keep the good times rollin' as long as he can, having just turned 29 but certainly playing like a guy a couple years younger. He had a disappointing clay season last year until reaching the final at RG, and will hope for my consistency on the dirt.

Girish Girsh -- 4th singles(unchanged), 612th to 606th doubles. Girsh should be the second-best player in the world but appears to be slumping again -- Mehul is still the better player despite being past his prime, and the label of 'underachiever' is pretty much accurate here to a degree. Unless he steps it up again like he did at the end of last year, all he'll be able to do is wait for the players above him to enter more serious aging decline.

Prakash Mooljee -- 72nd to 52nd singles, 617th to 564th doubles. Mooljee is starting to see a hair more success as a doubles player lately, and his last pair to tier-2 challengers wins have boosted his ranking to a career-high. Knocking on the door of the Top 50 now, he's become the #3 player in the Sri Lankan ranks in both singles and doubles. It's going to hard to push significantly higher though, since other than a couple of early-round losses during the RG timeframe last year he's basically just replacing low-level challenger titles from the previous season. In the summer when the challenger circuit hits it's peak, he'll need to take on the top tier of players in the 30-45 range and win some of the bigger challenger events. Time will tell whether he's more ready for that or not as compared to the start of the year.

Shreya Ujjaval -- 52nd to 64th singles, 125th to 157th doubles. On paper it looks like Ujjaval is having a bad year. He hasn't actually gotten worse -- in fact, he's still objectively better than Mooljee despite what the rankings say(9.0 as compared to 8.92), though it's getting quite close. Incidentally, they played three times in practice this current week and Ujjaval won convincingly each time. He has passed his physical peak at this point while Mooljee won't for probably about a year, so it's just sort of a premature switch. The main problem Ujjaval is running into right now though is that he's stopped playing challengers in favor of the bigger events, about a year before he should have in my opinion. He's not embarassed himself by any stretch, but hasn't been able to get deep enough in the tournaments he's played to replace the points he's losing.

Shyam Senepathy -- 240th singles. The criminally overplayed Senepathy is nonetheless climbing through the ranks to a degree. Despite being poorly handled, he could make the Top 100 someday. Talent alone will ensure he has a career to some degree -- but it's too late for him to ever really become an elite performer.

Ritwik Suksma -- NR to 1139th juniors. Suksma has been picked up by competent hands, and is struggling his way through having won his first singles match in Trnava a few weeks ago. He has the ability to be very good though not great in time -- we'll see what he manages to achieve.

Ritwik Dudwadkar -- NR to 1227th juniors. Also just at the beginning of his journey, Dudwadkar is winless so far in singles and still trying to find his stride.

Manager Ranking -- 2nd(unchanged), 33.0k to 33.6k points. Slipped to third for a couple of weeks but generally have stayed just ahead of Hayato -- less than 200 points ahead as of this writing. Both of us are narrowing -- at a snail's pace -- the massive gap to oprice.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Group 3, Third Round
Sri Lanka(5th) vs. Denmark(19th), Grass

Monday: A. Mehul d. F. Klitgaard, 6-2, 6-4, 6-0
Tuesday: G. Girsh d. J. Petersen, 6-4, 7-6(5), 6-1
Wednesday: J. Petersen/C. Daamsgard d. S. Ujjaval/R. Kuttikad, 7-6(4), 6-1, 6-1
Thursday: A. Mehul d. J. Petersen, 6-4, 6-2, 6-4
Friday: G. Girsh d. F. Klitgaard, 6-0, 6-1, 6-0

Sri Lanka defeats Denmark, 4-1!!

Every tie ended with the same score for us, and we advance to the quarterfinals as unbeaten Group 3 champions, roughly tied with the United States as the most dominant in group play so far. We stay in 5th place behind Germany as events in the JTC saw them gain some points, while the Czechs plummeted due to their failures in the juniors to well back of the US for the #1 spot.

Germany edged Italy 3-2 to claim the second spot and make the quarterfinals as well. Three were some interesting goings-on elsewhere also. In Group 1, Trulsen led 11th-ranked Sweden to an undefeated showing, and Spain advanced as well, far from the embarassment of last year when they had to endure a playoff to stay up. The Swedes have an aging Birkeland and nobody looking ready to come up to replace him, but Trulsen will at least keep them afloat for a few years. Group 2 saw the Czechs sweep to victory, with chaos behind them. France crushed Mexico ... who beat Argentina ... who then beat France. That leaves all three of them with one win each, but France held the tiebreaker which I think is total matches won, so they get the spot and the third-ranked Argentines are swept out early. Group 4 saw a fine performance by the US, with Peru getting the deciding tie against Russia on their favored clay and taking an easy victory to advance.

Our quarterfinal opponent will be the French on grass; they are improving and are pretty good grass players but we should get through them. Sweden and Peru is the other pairing on our side of the bracket, and the only way we lose against either of them is if Peru gets through and draws clay. We've got an easy path to the final again. The other side has the Czechs and Spaniards, then the USA and Germany. Most likely the US and Czech Republic battle it out to see who gets us in the final again. Smart money is going to be on Iglar.

Elsewhere ...

Ritwik Dudwadkar had his best tournament to date this week. He seems to have gotten enough consistency on his serve now to have an advantadge in throwing far fewer double-faults than his opponent. His first-ever singles win was in qualifying over Hungary's Boris Balzar, an easy win 6-3, 6-2. He faced 2nd-seeded Czech Libor Polzar, ranked just inside the Top 300, and acquitted himself well in a 7-6(5), 6-3 loss. If this week was any indication, he should be ready to start getting a few consistent results and move up. In doubles he didn't have to qualify this week which was a first, and suprisingly was part of the winning team!

Coming Up ...

Mehul will be off until Madrid in a few weeks, while Girsh is slated to be the top seed at Monte Carlo. The next ten players behind him in the rankings are all playing though, so it won't be like there's no competition -- it's just the top three skipping it. Gustavo Caratti or one of the Herrera's is my pick to take it this year. Mooljee has had a couple weeks off and will be taking another month at least; he won't be back out there until at least Madrid, and maybe not until Rome, playing a challenger at least one of those weeks. Dudwadkar's good week has earned him a little more time off than usual, he'll take three weeks to train and continue to improve before going back out there. Overall it's another break in the schedule other than our lone participant at Monte Carlo, and then it will all pick up again at Madrid.

[Umbrella]

Ritwik Suksma had a great weekend. He hoisted his first trophy in doubles at Banja Luka (JG5), and also advance to the semi-finals in singles, which is the best he's done there as well. This jumped him all the way up into the top 1000 at #969. However, his endurance is not good enough for deep runs in both singles and doubles, as his fatigue reached almost 900!

[Brian Swartz]

Yeah that's a problem for the really young players -- honestly my players have usually been 'good enough' for JG4s well before I have them actually start playing them, since they don't have enough endurance for a JG5 which is a round shorter. Enjoy taking a couple weeks off now .. .

[Umbrella]

Young Jakob Heinen finally broke through, and in a big way. He won both the singles (his first) and doubles (his second) titles in Instanbul (not Constantinople). He's the youngster I think is going to be really good. Unfortunately, he will probably have to rest for a week or two after those runs.

[Brian Swartz]

Monte Carlo Masters

It was the same drill for Shreya Ujjaval -- one of the better qualifiers so that was a breeze, tight win over Zakirov in the first round, routine loss to a seed in the second. Alberti in this case. Still a solid result but he's fallen into the overplaying trap for the first time in a while unfortunately. Hopefully he'll take at least one of Madrid/Rome off.

Meanwhile Girsh had a completely optimal draw in order of seeds. What that meant is that he would face the gauntlet of Herreras. The first was Agustin in the third round, and it almost ended for him there before he staged a rally to win 4-6, 6-4, 6-3. Marcelo went down pretty easily, leaving the third in a row as the best of the bunch, No. 7 Thiago in the semifinals who is the defending champion here. Again Girsh lost the first set but came back, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2. As the fresher man for both that match and the final, he went for the title against my favorite for the tournament, Gustavo Caratti, who he had narrowly beaten in that epic tiebreak last time out. Stunningly, Girsh won it in routine fashion, winning just over half his return points!

He's been to several finals, but this is the first Masters title for Girish Girsh and also the first time he was a top seed. For the moment this cuts the gap between him and #3 Bjorn Benda in less than half, and provides hope he might make more progress on that front in the rest of the clay season. A fine performance for him, though he could easily have lost multiple times he pulled through.

Coming Up ...

A couple weeks off before Madrid ramps up the dirt season. Ritwik Dudwadkar is the only player expected to enter any tournaments in this gap.

[Brian Swartz]

May

Zippidy-do-dah from my players as Dudwadkar got really worn out the practice week before he was scheduled to play his next tournament, so he took an extra week off to rest. Shreya Ujjaval foolishly entered Barcelona, getting knocked in his first match in both singles and doubles. At least he's finally taken a couple of weeks off now, and looks like he's going to skip Madrid which is wise given how much needs a break. Frankly he should be skipping Rome as well but as of now it doesn't look like that's the plan.

We're off to Spain next week, Italy the week after for Rome. This year the clay field is as wide-open as ever. Several players could take the bull by the horns, Benda's always a favorite but he's no longer unbeatable. It'll be interesting to see who steps up the next few weeks.

[Alf]

Wrong thread :)

[Brian Swartz]

Lol. I HATE it when I do that. I'll just ... see myself out. Thanks for the heads-up

[Brian Swartz]

Madrid Masters

There were a few early surprises here as the clay season really gets going. Bourdet lost to his countryman Poilblan in the first round, Kinczllers was knocked out in the second, former contender Marcek in the third. Both of Sri Lanka's top players had left very early the previous year. Girish Girsh had the misfortune of meeting Gustavo Caratti in the third round, and after a good first set he yielded meekly, 3-6, 6-2, 6-1. Still a round further than he went a year ago and a reversal of the Monte Carlo final a few years ago, but the Argentine is a rising force esp. on the dirt. Tough to get too upset about this.

Benda against T. Herrera was the highlight of the quarterfinals, with the German winning a tough one, 7-5 in the third. Meanwhile Anil Mehul had a disappointing end though also better than last year, losing to Elias Trulsen . Trulsen is a very good player getting better, but typically not much of a force on clay. Mehul took the first but then fell off, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2. His serve did nothing today.

The Swede would win just two games against the steamrolling Caratti in the semis, while Benda outlasted Iglar in a classic, going to a third-set tiebreak. He had enough left to claim the title, leaving the new kid on the block with two finals losses in two clay masters so far, 7-6(3), 6-3. Bjorn Benda 's win here is less than three months shy of the record for oldest player to win a Masters. He's nearly 31; Gorritepe of course holds it at 31 years, 5 weeks. Quite the accomplishment.

Ritwik Dudwadkar lost both qualifiying matches in Den Haag, meaning he'd be back out there again the following week. In doubles, he went up against Ritwik Suksma, the guy who was ditched so I could have him. A pair of 6-3 sets later, the trend of Suksma being the better player early on continued.


Rome Masters

A week later, and we do it all over again in one of the most storied and famous cities in the world. Shreya Ujjaval was here this time and did his usual thing; qualify, beat another qualifier in the first round, lose horribly in the second, this time to Alberti. The real stunner was when Antonin Iglar lost in the third round to Agustin Herrera, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4. He was a little better but uncharacteristically didn't have it on his break chances(2 of 8) and just couldn't quite get it done. It creates a bit of an opening for Mehul and Benda to close the gap on him a little more, though he still has a substantial lead. It had been five years since the legendary Czech failed to reach the quarterfinals of any major event. It's not something we're used to.

At the same stage, both of my players struggled through matches they shouldn't have. Girsh lost a tiebreak to Radek Smitala before looking in full control the last two sets, while Anil Mehul needed a lot of drama to outlast Perry Mockler 6-1, 2-6, 7-6(5). That match bounced around all over the place and really defied categorizing, then went right down to the wire in the decider. But they both survived, albeit barely, and moved on to the quarterfinals.

Lots of close matches in the next round. A. Herrera backed up his win over Iglar by defeating Gaskell with an almost identical score. Girish Girsh lost a close second set to push his match with Trulsen the distance ... and then served up a bagel. Not often you see a 6-0 third set, especially in a big tournament like this. It's still been a heck of a couple weeks for the Swede, who will be a serious threat at Wimbledon most likely. Benda squeezed through a closer-than-expected encouter with Alberti, and it was Mehul's chance to try and stop Caratti. He couldn't do it, a tough straight-sets loss for his second straight quarterfinal departure.

More good matches in the semis, with Girsh coming through in a third-set breaker to finally end Herrera's run, while Benda again was narrowly better than Caratti. This was all about preparation. The Argentine overplayed going into these events, while the German veteran did not. That's the only difference between the two right now. Playing Benda on clay for the first time in nearly two years, Girsh got the same result he has the other two times it's happened; he lost. It was a heck of a match though, going to 7-5 in the third and just three points separating the two.

Girsh has hung in with but ultimately lost these last couple weeks against the two best clay-courters in the world right now, coming off a win at Monte Carlo. He has every reason to expect to be a long-shot but in the mix at Roland Garros. And for all of that, while he gained in the rankings he's actually further behind Benda who refuses to give up his rule on the clay. He's now won 15 Masters, which is good enough for clear 6th all-time; only the Big 5 have more. A lot more, 5th is Haresign with 23, but his refusal to go away is really moving him up in terms of his historical legacy.

Meanwhile, Prakash Mooljee ended up seeded 5th in a crowded field of players close to the same ranking at tier-2 challenger in Fergana. He had the worst possible quarterfinal draw against veteran Alex Beamer(ZAF, 52nd). Nearly 31, Beamer has never been great with a peak of 38th, but he's also refused to just fade away. This was really a coin-flip going in, and it played out that way. It was one of those that Mooljee just found a way in, 5-7, 7-6(4), 7-6(7). Each set was a war and he could easily have lost, but as he does far more often than not he pulled through. Total points were dead-even at 124 each. In the final, Mooljee won his third final in the last several months over Khasan Zakirov, though this one was closer. They split the first two sets and both were close, but Mooljee pulled away 6-1 in the finale. He even managed to qualify and make the quarterfinals in doubles for a change.

Ritwik Dudwadkar didn't do any better this week, again losing his first match in both singles and doubles.


Coming Up ...

Dudwadkar will be out there again for a third straight week hoping for something to shake loose. The other three get a week off before Roland Garros. The big story there not be them though; it will be Bjorn Benda. If he keeps up his recent success and wins RG, he will be the oldest by nearly a year to win a Slam. Eric Gorritepe was just over 30 years old when he won his last one. Benda's not supposed to still be doing this stuff at his age -- nobody does. But yet here he is. As a result, the top 4 is bunching up. At the start of the year, Iglar was five thousand up on the field basically. He's now less than four ahead of Girsh, and it's possible Mehul could lose his #2 spot to Benda again. By comparison, Girsh is actually a little further ahead of #5 Gaskell, than he is behind #1 Iglar.

Lots of things could happen in France in a couple weeks. It should be an exciting ride, and we can't forget Caratti who has risen from 10th to 7th, and is just a hair behind Marcek so he'll soon probably gain another spot.

[Brian Swartz]

2045 Roland Garros

Opening Rounds

Shreya Ujjaval is becoming an broken record. He lost just two games in an easy first-round match-up, then won only four against Iglar in the second round. It was better than last year though, when he fell in the first. The only early casualties were a couple of low seeds, except for Pavel Bestmianov, as the 21-seed dropped his first match in straight sets to Jens Petersen. That was the story of the first couple of days. The second round saw a couple more seeds fall, but nobody worth mentioning. Afanasy Bereznity had to rally from two sets down, but the 18-seed survived.

Frenchman Theodore Bourdet followed up an unexpectedly tough four-setter in the second round by rallying for a five-set win in his third-rounder ... he's not playing well but following the 'survive and advance' mantra. Federer gave Benda a surprisingly tough match, but the first big upset happened when No. 5 Pierce Gaskell was knocked out by fellow American Philip Carter. The fourth round played mostly to form, a lot of clean performances setting up some nice clashes to begin the second week. Anil Mehul dropped the first set but then rebounded to finish easily in four against Alberti, while Girish Girsh also went four for the first time against the in-form Agustin Herrera. Six of the top eight seeds moved through to the second week and there were no big surprises, though Thiago Herrera had a scare against Kinczllers, being pushed to five but eventually coming through.

Elsewhere ...

Prakash Mooljee did not get off to a good start, losing his first qualifying doubles match at tier-2 Nantes and then getting pushed to three sets by local wild-card Yves Brisson. Brisson is the typical poor-serving grinder, which on clay with the crowd behind you can be tough to counter. Mooljee got through it though, and did not have a competitive match the rest of the way. 2-seed Jonathon Ardant, another Frenchman, figured to be dangerous in the final but he went down hard, 6-1, 6-3. With this victory Mooljee sets a record for me in Challenger titles by a player(11) and also moves into the Top 50 for the first time. Even if he is just scalping tier-2 events during big tournaments -- and there's a lot more of that to come -- he's won four straight and continues to gradually improve.

[Brian Swartz]

2045 Roland Garros -- Second Week

The quarterfinals started off with the marquee matchup of Antonin Iglar against Gustavo Caratti. After splitting the first two sets, the next two were hard-fought but both won by the Argentian. It's Iglar's earliest exit here in the last five years. The draw didn't do him any favors, of course. Benda had the better of it, easily stomping Smitala. And then there was the bottom half, which was basically the Sri Lanka vs. Peru half. Having already dispatched one Herrera in the last round, we faced the better two this time. It could either be two of us or two of them in the semis, or maybe one of each. Mehul dropped the first two sets against Thiago, then came thundering back for a vintage display of championship heart in a 3-6, 3-6, 6-2, 6-4, 6-3 win. It was the eighth Slam quarterfinal Thiago Herrera has reached ... and he's lost all of them. Just a tough one to be on the losing end of, and he might well look at this as the match that got away above all others when his career is over. Girsh had a couple of tough sets against Marcelo, but made it through in straights.

That left the semifinals to feature the usual suspects except for Caratti. He'd lost the in Madrid and Rome to Bjorn Benda, with the German just two wins away from a 7th title here in 8 years, which would make him the oldest man ever to win a Slam. Those dreams died quickly, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. Benda was outplayed after the two close recent wins, but he made it easier by only converting 1 of 9 break chances. The second match wasn't any closer. Girsh had a bad day serving and was dispatched in straight sets, his third loss in as many matches against Mehul.

That meant somebody was going to win their first Roland Garros crown. Anil Mehul was in the final for the second year in a row, with experience as well as preparation on his side. Gustavo Caratti was a little worn out, but his athleticism easily won the day, 6-4, 6-4, 6-2. In the end, only Iglar in the quarterfinals took a set off him. The 25-year-old will probably be doing this again; he did lose 2 of 3 to Benda but it still has all the appearance that, after years of speculation, tennis has found it's new king of clay.

It's Caratti's first Slam title, the first for any member of Generation Flash for example which irks Girsh to no end. Caratti moves up to 5th in the rankings: it was just a few weeks ago that he was 10th. If he can put together some decent results the rest of the year, he may close the gap with the top four but right now it's a very distant 5th. Meanwhile, with Benda failing to defend, Girsh moves up to 3rd for the first time, and Iglar's lead at the top is less than 2000 points, just a shadow of what it was to start the year. At the other end of the specrum, Marcek is down to 9th, and he'll be sinking further. A semifinalist last year, he was bounced quite a bit earlier this year.

Coming Up ...

Only Dudwadkar will be active during the break, everybody else is just training and getting ready for Wimbledon. Anil Mehul will be looking to tie Gabriel Alastra's record of four straight titles there. Benda has given him everything he wanted to handle the last couple of years, Iglar is always a bigtime threat, Girsh will have something to say of course, and Elias Trulsen is good enough now, a grass-court specialist with an elite serve and a recent arrival to the Top 10, that he could make some noise also. I can see any of those five coming away with the title but Mehul is playing well enough that he has as good a chance as any.

[Brian Swartz]

June

Aarhus, Denmark was the site for Ritwik Dudwadkar's latest adventure. He qualified easily and pushed the top seed to a third set in his first match in the main draw. It appears that he is starting to figure things out a bit. Even in the loss he was on the better side of the double-fault equation. He made it to the final in doubles as well, earning himself a couple more weeks off.

Coming Up

It's Wimbledon time.

[Umbrella]

On the week of his 15th birthday, Ritwik Suksma finally notched his first singles title in Kiev against Girish Kansal, in an all Sri Lankan final. The future of Sri Lanka is looking up.

[Brian Swartz]

Well done! Present isn't that bad either. Unfortunately Kansal and his peak endurance of a whole 1.4 is not going to do much in the long term.

2045 Wimbledon

Opening Rounds

Another good draw for Shreya Ujjaval, who blanked a british wild-card, then met up with 29-seed Stefan Baune of Germany. He started off poorly but finished well in a wildly swerving match on the best surface for both players, outlasting Baune for the best win of his career to date, 1-6, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-1! In a credible showing, he ended his run in the third round for the third time in his Slam portfolio but the first time here, falling to Caratti in four sets.

Meanwhile, Girish Girsh had his first bit of trouble with Jens Petersen in the second round but moved on in four. Smitala became the first top seed to bow out early as he lost in five to Vito Bonamoni. The third round brought a number of epic five-set battles, but Thiago Herrera was the only real upset as the 7-seed was taken out by Davide Poilblan.

The fourth round brought the first real marquee matchup of hopefuls with Antonin Iglar surviving the loss of an epic 30-point second-set tiebreak to knock out Elias Trulsen in four sets. A disappointingly early exit for Trulsen, who could have beaten a lot of players at this stage, but he's still working his way up to get more favorable draws. Girsh moved through having done much better after the second round, and Anil Mehul had his first real fight in a tough four-setter that was close the whole way against Agustin Herrera. The quarterfinal field featured the top six seeds, along with the two young Frenchmen, Poilblan and Bourdet.

Elsewhere ..

Prakash Mooljee was seeded #2 at Marburg(tier 2), where he was looking to defend last year's title. The top seed was worn-out Swede Gerard Benneton, and Mooljee cruised through with no real difficulty at all, crushing Gael Monfils 6-1, 6-2 in the final to maintain his standing.

[Umbrella]

I ended up letting go of Suksma. I found a young Argentine player I think has better potential. Depending on how things go, I may get buyers remorse.

[Brian Swartz]

Interesting. Calmaro is a horse. Between the aging and the not-the-best endurance I don't think he'll last long, but he should be very good up till about age 25. I'd have been very tempted also -- dunno if I would have pulled the trigger, but I totally understand why you did.

[Brian Swartz]

2045 Wimbledon -- Second Week

The potentially unpredictable business end quickly turned ... well, quite predictable as form held. Iglar sent Gaskell to his typical quarterfinal exit in four sets, and neither of the French players could steal a set from Girsh or Mehul though both, especially Poilblan, made things interesting at times. Benda dropped Caratti's best Wimbledon run to date in four sets, and all four top seeds, last year's semifinalists, were back at it again with the same matchups from a year ago.

Anil Mehul actually had his easiest grass match ever against Benda -- he's won all four of the previous ones, but could easily have lost all four, having served particularly well in their encounters and having three of them go the distance. All have been classics. This one was a four-set affair, competetitive but decisive. The early semi featured Iglar against Girish Girsh, and when they met last year Girsh took only seven games. He had more than that by early in thte second set. Unfortunately this match would be even crueler to him than the loss in the WTC Finals last year. After narrowly losing an epic third-set tiebreaker, he lost another and ultimately came about as close to winning as you can without doing so. The scoreline was 2-6, 6-7(4), 7-6(12), 7-6(5), 7-5 with Iglar pulling it out in another stunning comeback. Girsh slightly outplayed him overall, but the match seemed to turn more and more against him after a big first set, and he was only 5 of 19 overall on break chances compared to 4 of 10 for the Czech. A heck of a match, but at the same time a brutal setback.

So for the third time in four years, it was Antonin Iglar and Anil Mehul for the title. After splitting a pair of lopsided sets things got real in the third. Neither player gave much in the way of chances on their serve. Both held with more difficulty at the end of the set, and got midway through the tiebreak before Mehul snagged a minibreak, only to lose it a couple of points later. He put together a couple good points shortly aftewards though, to seize the momentum and move a set from the title. The fourth set went much the same way until Mehul capitalized on the second of two break points in the ninth game. Serving for the championship, he wilted and double-faulted on break point to level the set again. A couple holds later, it was tiebreak time again and the three-time defending champ was on point here to claim victory. 6-2, 1-6, 7-6(4), 7-6(2)! Nobody in the history of the sport can best his four straight titles here; only Alastra has equaled it.

The second-half break is now upcoming. Dudwadkar will be out there for a couple of events but the other three won't be seen until at least the Canada Masters in a month's time. Wimbledon changed nothing at the top -- everyone did exactly what they did last year, within the Top 4. Same matchups, same results, maintaining the status quo. Rankings updates and a look at the initial Race standings will be incoming soon.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 28) -- 12,970

Iglar hasn't won a Slam this year, and his grip on the top spot is weakening again. He's already lost more matches than he did last season, and his athletic advantage is fading a bit. Still the best player in the world, but he doesn't look as invincible as he once did. In the next few weeks, however, he'll pass Haresign for 4th on the list of weeks at #1, which ought to end any debate about which player has the greater legacy between the two.

2. Anil Mehul(SRI, 29) -- 10,870

Having taken two of the first three Slams and reaching the final of RG, you can make a case for Mehul as the top performer so far this year. He's certainly not looking like a guy about to fall off the aging cliff.

3. Girish Girsh(SRI, 26) -- 9,560

Good, but not good enough to knock off Mehul yet.

4. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 31) -- 8,990

One wonders if he has another resurgence in him. Nobody has been this successful at 31 since Gorritepe, but he still seems better than the rest of the pack.

5. Gustavo Caratti(ARG, 25) -- 5,845

Caratti has made the big leap with his championship at RG, and now he faces the question put to all who dominate the clay: can he bring consistent quality results on other surfaces? A credible quarterfinal run at Wimbledon would seem to indicate there's a good chance he can. I expect the gap between Argentina's new standard-bearer and the top four to shrink in the second half of the year.

6. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 29) -- 5,140

15 Slam quarterfinals now. He hasn't won a single one of them. The law of averages would seem to make that all but impossible.

7. Thiago Herrera(PER, 27) -- 3,700

Caratti's emergence makes it even harder for Herrera to maintain his standing.

8. Cestmir Marcek(CZE, 31) -- 3,410

The slide continues. I don't see him on this list by year's end.

9. Radek Smitala(USA, 27) -- 3,340

Had a couple of years in the sun; now he's this year's early-exiter at Wimbledon.

10. Elias Trulsen(SWE, 26) -- 3,010

Moving up steadily, not like Caratti's more meteoric rise, but Trulsen gets my vote as the better player when all is said and done.

There are four players not far off: M. Herrera, Kinczllers, Mockler, and the rising Theodore Bourdet. Looks like shifting sands for the next year or so as players like Smitala, Marcek, and Mockler slide down and we find out who else has the goods to replace them.

[Brian Swartz]

** And I did it again. I think I'm posting drunk lately. Except I don't drink :P**

Race Standings
Initial Post-Wimbledon Edition


In

Anil Mehul -- 7,740
Antonin Iglar -- 6,310
Gustavo Caratti -- 5,215

A great start to the year has Mehul in the top spot, while Iglar has a lot of work to do if he is to finish as year-end #1. He'll be the favorite in at least four more big events so there's no desperation here, but he can't afford any more setbacks. Meanwhile Caratti is barely fourth in the Race overall, but as RG champ his first qualification is assured.


Probable

Bjorn Benda -- 5,910
Girish Girsh -- 5,090
Pierce Gaskell -- 3,600

Benda is all but in, and Girsh is a matter of time as well though his biggest concern at this point might well be holding off Caratti to retain the #4 spot. Gaskell is sort of in no-man's land, strongly favored to qualify, and nobody really near him above or below.


Contenders

Marcelo Herrera -- 2,460
Thiago Herrera -- 2,330
-----------------------------
Elias Trulsen -- 2,310
Mugur Kinczllers -- 2,120

The Herreras have the edge right now but with the closeness here it could be an interesting tussle for the last couple of spots. My money right now is that these positions get reversed. That won't make me many fans in Peru, but Trulsen is too good not to make it and Kinczllers is a fine hardcourt player who should have plenty of chances to make some noise in the upcoming US swing. After finishing ninth last year, this is really his best chance -- he's as good as he's going to get and will probably start a slow decline next year.


Long Shots

Perry Mockler -- 1,940
Agustin Herrera -- 1,880
Cestmir Marcek -- 1,760
Theodore Bourdet -- 1,600
Tobia Alberti -- 1,570
Roger Federer -- 1,565
Afanasy Bereznity -- 1,520
John Condon -- 1,490
Xavier Caminha -- 1,440
Radek Smitala -- 1,420
Davide Poilblan -- 1,360

Boy are there ever a lot of them. This is partly due to parity in the 'Second 10' right now, and partly due to the fact that the last couple of qualifying spots have never been this low in points at this part of the year since I started tracking the Race. This is almostly completely a collection of has-beens, wanna-bes, and never-wases at this point. Bourdet has a chance, though he largely bungled it with first-round exits during the clay season, but he's about the only one realistically speaking. The one thing he does have going for him is that he has the potential for a big finish in Paris with his indoor proficiency. By the end of the US Open the men are usually separated from the boys, and that'll mean saying goodbye to the prospects of most of those listed here. Almost all of them are spending their careers spinning their wheels playing twice as many(or more) events as they should, most of them 250s.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Anil Mehul -- 2nd singles. At 29, Mehul may be having his best year. His winning percentage is a hair above what it was two years ago when he finished #1, and this time around he has two Slams which he's never managed before -- but no Masters yet, that year he won five. It all depends on how well he finishes, but as expected Iglar is becoming increasingly inconsistent despite his great year last year, as age takes just a bit quicker of a toll on him that it does on our hero.

Girish Girsh -- 4th to 3rd singles, 606th to 592nd doubles. A new high for Girsh as he slides ahead of Benda. It looks to be his best season yet, but he's 0-5 against the two players ahead of him. He was so close in the Wimbledon semi against Iglar, and it would have been huge for him. He finished well last year, so it would take a really brilliant streak for him to surpass either of the top pair yet this season. It could happen, though.

Prakash Mooljee -- 52nd to 49th singles, 564th to 751st doubles. While the ranking hasn't changed much, Mooljee has been taking the tier-2 challengers with increasing ease. He's won five straight now and is steadily improving; just this week he had some competitive losses against Top-20 foes Bourdet and Federer in practice. It'll be more of the same most of the rest of the year, training and mid-level challengers. The goal for him right now is to be seeded at the Australian Open to start next year, and that will likely depend on how he handles the 'big finish' against other top challenger players at the end of the season after Paris.

Shreya Ujjaval -- 64th singles(unchanged), 157th to 98th doubles. Ujjaval continues to be better than his ranking. He continues to 'play up' in events that he isn't ranked high enough to really succeed in yet, which will delay his breakthrough but I still think he's good enough that it'll eventually come.

Shyam Senepathy -- 240th to 215th. Continuing to make gradual progress, he plays a futures event pretty much every week and has won only a single tournament in the past year. Through sheer talent he's about to graduate to challengers, and I think he'll stall there under the present strategy.

Ritwik Suksma -- 1139th to 618th juniors. I'm starting to develop a complex about the fact that the guy I didn't want is outperforming the guy I jettisoned him for. Hopefully a decent manager picks Suksma up soon now that he's free again.

Ritwik Dudwadkar -- 1227th to 1000th juniors. Finally starting to progress a little.

Manager Ranking -- 2nd(unchanged), 33.6k to 36.3k. Slipped to third briefly again, but Wimbledon gave me some breathing room.


Coming Up ...

Dudwadkar will have probably a couple of events during the break including next week. On the pro tour, it's a month off until Canada, launching us into the frenetic final months.

[Brian Swartz]

July/August

As it ended up there was only one tournament to report. In late July after Wimbledon was over, Ritwik Dudwadkar headed to Jerusalem for his latest Tier-5 junior event. It was the first one he didn't have to qualify for. He lost in his first doubles match, but in singles he beat a pair of hideously overplayed seeds, then in the toughest match defeated qualifier Marek Soucek(CZE) 6-4, 7-5 to claim his first title. In doing so, Dudwadkar more than doubled his win total for the year in one week, from 3 to 7! He moved up almost 200 spots to the low 800s in the rankings, and earned himself a few weeks off.

Coming Up

The Canada and then Cincinatti Masters await. It's time for what is the busiest part of the year -- five tournament weeks out of six -- for our top players.

[Brian Swartz]

Canada Masters

By now you don't even need me to tell you what Shreya Ujjaval did -- it was predictable in advance. Qualified, won a close first-rounder, lost a one-sided match to Kinczllers in the second round. Lather, rinse, repeat. Girsh and Mehul on the other hand were drawn on the same side of the bracket, so a semifinal matchup loomed if they could both get there. Mehul had the tougher draw, with Girsh basically in the Peruvian quarter -- all four Herreras were there with him, three of them seeded.

The best third-round matchup on paper was Mehul against Elias Trulsen, but he got through easily. Benda and Bourdet was a good one as well, and closer but the German made it through in straight sets. The quarterfinals featured a couple of tight matches and a couple of one-sided ones. Iglar knocked off Caratti easily, while Benda had a lot of work to do against surprising Afanasy Bereznity, who seems to be doing this once or twice a year. Bereznity pushed it to 7-5 in the third, but couldn't come through. Next up was Mehul against Mugur Kinczllers, and after dropping the first set he was fortunate to withstand 19 aces and win 3-6, 7-6(2), 7-5. Girsh has a pretty easy one against Thiago Herrera.

Top four once again in the semis. Iglar had a competitive straight-set win over Benda, while Anil Mehul and Girish Girsh went toe-to-toe in the second one. It was evenly played, but the senior player was best in the biggest moments and prevailed 6-7(7), 7-6(3), 6-3, his fourth win in as many encounters this year. Tough defeat for Girsh. With Mehul still rounding into form, it surprised basically nobody that Iglar prevailed in the final to claim his third Masters of the year.

Elsewhere ...

Ritwik Dudwadkar was the #3 seed at Al Minya. That's a new sensation. He lost a very close semi to the top seed, 6-3 in the final set, and reached the same round in doubles. Enough to bump him up another hundred spots to the low 700s.

[Brian Swartz]

Cincinatti Masters

Last year Shreya Ujjaval was worn out and skipped Cincinatti. This year he qualified, and met Perry Mockler in the first round. He played well early to steal the first set, but would win only three more games. Probably should have skipped it this year as well, esp. since now he won't be at his best for the USO. Same song, different verse.

No real first-round upsets, though Kinczllers had to go through a tight third-set tiebreak to escape one of the toughest opening matchups against Pavel Bestemianov(RUS, no. 25). As it turned out, this would be quite important. [b]Garreth McCuskey showed Marcek, having a terrible summer so far, the door abruptly 6-3, 6-0 in round two while pretty much everyone else cruised through. McCuskey pulled off another upset, this one over Bereznity, in the third round but it was a lot tighter -- 7-5 in the third. Meanwhile both Mehul and Girsh dropped the first sets of their matches for the first time but both found their way through, against Mockler and Trulsen respectively. Kinczllers had another tough one, a two-tiebreak affair over Caratti.

The quarterfinals went pretty routinely for the top half, as Iglar and Benda set up another clash. Anil Mehul was next on the docket for Mugur Kinczllers, the latter continuing to escape in a 6-4, 6-7(6), 6-3 upset. Mehul hasn't lost often this year, but this was one day in which he couldn't quite get it done. Probably deserved to win, but also probably deserved to lose last week at the same juncture against the same opponent. Kinczllers has become one of the better hard-court players out there. Meanwhile Girish Girsh lost a close second-set breaker but otherwhise took care of business against McCuskey, who was in his first big quarterfinal. It'll be interesting to see if the American can back up this performance. There was no real drama in the semis. Iglar over Benda in a competitive two again, and Girsh finally took out Kinczllers in a match controlled by the servers. Four break points each way, Girsh was the only man to convert and then got through a tiebreak as well.

Advancing to the final then, Girsh got his 30th shot against Antonin Iglar in what has been a notably one-sided matchup. He stole the first, then fell behind quickly in the second. In the final set there were only two break chances, and Girish missed both of them. One at 2-all, one at 3-all. The momentum swung to the Czech at that point, but while he was pushed to deuce twice, Girsh held each time. The tiebreak was back-and-forth, but Iglar faltered in the second half of it including an uncharacteristic double-fault at 3-4. Girish took care of his serve at the end, and snagged his second Masters of the year and biggest career victory, 6-3, 2-6, 7-6(4)! Huge win, just his third over Iglar and first on hardcourt, breaking a four-match losing streak in their matchup. He has to be considered a legitimate threat at the US Open now ...

Elsewhere ...

Prakash Mooljee was seeded third at tier-2 Samarkand, having considered entering the tier-1 challenger at San Marino but deciding against it after seeing a pretty top-heavy field. It was smooth sailing most of the way, including bludgeoning plummeting top seed Gerard Bennetto. In the final he met 2-seed Khasan Zhakirov for the 5th team, fourth as a professional. Both players are rising together, staying close to 50th in the rankings over the past months. Zhakirov is an elite athlete but not as good from the baseline, and Mooljee had won all three previous professional meetings. This was not his day though, as he lost a competitive straight-sets affair, 6-4, 6-3. His winning streak is broken, and the loss will hurt his late-season efforts.

A week off for everyone(two for Dudwadkar) until the US Open now.

[Brian Swartz]

2045 US Open

Opening Rounds

There was a lot on the line here for a number of players hoping for a good end to the year, and some rather interesting things happened, not all of them expected. Shreya Ujjaval, who made the third round a year ago, had an interesting first-rounder against fellow riser Zhakirov. It went the distance, but Ujjaval pulled through 6-2, 2-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3. He's now 3-1 in five-set matches for his career, with the loss coming in his first match here. Not sure that really means anything, but an important win for him nonetheless. Last year his run started with a win over Condon -- this year he was up next against the guy who beat him in the first round, Joseph Skirrow. Skirrow is a top challenger player but at 26 years old he appears to be past his peak, which was 29th in the world. They split the first two sets but Ujjaval was in control from there. His fourth visit to the third round of a Slam ended against 11th-seeded Perry Mockler, a straight-sets loss but he was competitive in all three sets. About as good as could be expected really, and a nice showing.

Condon(20th) was one of only two seeded players to lose in the first round, and he's on his way out from the upper echelons of the sport anyway. A couple of lower ones crashed out in the second, but all the top players got through. Poilblan had his hands full in tough four-set match against Andre Herrera, and Mehul met up with a young player making his Slam debut. Hugo Jurco, one of Mooljee's potential rivals and a hardcourt specialist, looked like he might end Mehul's six straight quarterfinals or better here. He led early, and had break chances often in the second set before losing 6-4, 7-5, 7-5. It's very rare to have such a close one this early in the tournament, and Jurco could well become a hardcourt force soon. He's only 21 and a half, but is already a good athlete with a reliable serve.

The Herreras provided the drama in an otherwhise by-the-books third round. Both Agustin and Thiago were stretched to the distance, with the latter needed razor-thin margins in the last two sets to escape with tiebreaks against Roger Federer. The fourth round is usually when things start to get a little more difficult. The still-young Russian Afanasy Bereznity sent T. Herrera packing in another tie-break heavy five-setter, but the real viewing was on the bottom half of the bracket where Bjorn Benda faced off against Elias Trulsen. After losing to Mehul and Girsh in the lead-up Masters, the Swede finally got his breakthrough hardcourt win in a back-and-forth match, 6-4 in the 5th. A big win for him that probably moves him into the next tier now -- he's been stuck in 9th for some months. Tough loss for Benda, a very workmanlike performance and he was objectively the better player, but only managed half of Trulsen's 24 aces and was just 6 of 19 on break points, while the Swede converted half of his chances.


Elsewhere ...

Prakash Mooljee had himself a heck of a week in Como, where he was favored and the defending champion, yet still seeded 2nd. He didn't really have a close match, another competitive at least one against Ardant in the final, but not only won singles but also claimed his first challenger doubles title coming through qualifying. A dozen matches in a single week means he has lots of time off coming.

[ntndeacon]

Javier Canolli ended up Runner up in the Junior U.S. Open!

[Brian Swartz]

If you're not first, you're last!! Erm, I mean, well done. Janin has been ridiculous the last couple years in juniors, so coming in second is definitely good.

[Brian Swartz]

US Open, Second Week

Overall the quarterfinals were pretty much a dud of a round, going only one set past the minimum. Straight-set matches for Iglar over Caratti, Girsh over Bereznity, and Trulsen over Marcek to reach his first-ever Slam semi. Then there was the 'rubber match' between Anil Mehul and Mugur Kinczllers, who have the misfortune of meeting at this round for the third straight tournament. The previous two in Canada and Cincinatti were very tight and split. The first set was more of that, a long tiebreak eventually won by Mehul. He would drop one set, but prevail 7-6(9), 6-3, 3-6, 7-5 to complete the final foursome. Another tough loss for Kinczllers who was right in this one, but it was another case of not getting it done in winning time. The Italian was 3 of 12 on break points, Mehul a very opportunistic 4 of 6, and combined with squeaking out that first set it was just enough.

In the first semifinal, Iglar got up 4-1 on the first set against Girish Girsh -- but uncharacteristically choked, dropping the last four games from serving for the set at 5-3. Girsh broke in the last game of the second to take that as well ... and then proceeded to do a repeat of last year's WTC Final. Faced with his best chance yet to win a slam, he lost a two-set lead to Iglar for the second time in less than a year, 5-7, 5-7, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4. It would really be nice if he'd lose the 'choke' trait. Mehul took his chances once again in the second semifinal, and while Trulsen put up more of a fight that he has in their more recent encouters, Anil advanced in four sets there. The Madrid loss earlier this year remains his only blemish in seven meetings.

Antonin Iglar was then given the chance to avenge Mehul's upset win in Australia. They've met in only one other final here, Iglar taking it in four sets a couple of years ago. The Czech was just a bit on the tired side by the time the final rolled around. It was still a surprise though to see him go down two sets early. As he had against Girsh he took the third, but couldn't come up with the goods in a fourth-set breaker and Mehul stunningly took his third Slam of the year, 6-3, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(3)! Iglar's serve(only 8 aces, 4 DF) deserted him, and Mehul was at his best on break points as he has been all fortnight. He converted 3 of 5, while saving 10 of 12 against him. For most of the match Anil was outplayed, but he found his way through.

In winning here, Anil Mehul has once again wrested the #1 ranking away from Iglar by a narrow margin. Last time that happened he won five Masters in a year. This time he did it on the biggest stage, winning three Slams and reaching the final of all four. Incredibly, only his RG final loss to Caratti kept him from a clean sweep. I'll look at the Race in a bit but it certainly looks like he'll stay on top for the end of the year.


Elsewhere ...

Ritwik Dudwadkar exited in the first round of doubles at his lastest event in Netanya. He was an unseeded winner in singles though, his second win in his last three events. It would seem the rough start to his juniors career is behind him.


Coming Up ...

WTC Quarterfinals against France, which should be a comfortable win for Sri Lanka.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Anil Mehul(SRI, 29) -- 12,150

A remarkable, amazing, unexpected year for Mehul. He's back at the top, albeit narrowly, and this time he might stay there for a little while. One thing's for sure, he's injected some unforseen drama into this year.

2. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 28) -- 11,770

It's been quite the fall on the other hand for Iglar, who is Slamless in 2045 after putting up one of the best seasons in history last year. It's been a bigger tumble than a couple of years ago, and it's not at all certain he can get back up this time.

3. Girish Girsh(SRI, 26) -- 9,480

An interesting last couple of tournaments for Girsh as he had the huge win over Iglar in Cincinatti, then the collapse at the USO. Just when you think he's made it, he crumbles again.

4. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 31) -- 9,170

Benda's lost in the first week of back-to-back US Opens now, but he showed during the rest of the year that he's still got plenty of game to remain relevant.

5. Gustavo Caratti(ARG, 26) -- 6,325

A gradual ascent continues, as Caratti distances himself from the second five and narrows the gap with the top four.

6. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 29) -- 4,700

And the opposite here as Gaskell slowly slides.

7. Elias Trulsen(SWE, 26) -- 3,640

Trulsen is finally becoming a hot commodity. The USO semifinal run and particularly the win over Benda was a big breakthrough for him. He should have a big year or two coming up.

8. Thiago Herrera(PER, 28) -- 3,610

Ever so slowly, Peru's brightest star is beginning to fade.

9. Mugur Kinczllers(ITA, 26) -- 3,030

A strong last month has Kinczllers back up to his career-best position.

10. Cestmir Marcek(CZE, 31) -- 3,025

Just about done.


Theodore Bourdet was in the last spot here for a while but fell back when he couldn't replicate last year's USO run. He'll probably be back eventually though. Right now Mockler and M. Herrera, both veterans, are the only ones really close. Others are pushing upwards though and it's only a matter of time.

[Brian Swartz]

Race Standings
Post-USO Edition

In

Anil Mehul -- 10,340
Antonin Iglar -- 9,110
Bjorn Benda -- 7,310
Girish Girsh -- 7,170
Gustavo Caratti -- 6,145

Iglar can still take the year-end #1, but he would need to sweep everything to guarantee that. He's capable of doing that, but would need to return to his best tennis. His 'B' game is not good enough to dominate anymore. It looks like Benda and Girsh will go right down to the wire for third, while Caratti will look to position himself as a competitive fifth and move further up next year.


Probable

Pierce Gaskell -- 4,170

Gaskell's mastery of the 500 and 250-level events elevate him above the also-rans, while his inability to break through in the big ones distances him from the best.


Contenders

Elias Trulsen -- 3,210
Mugur Kinczllers -- 3,110
--------------------------
Thiago Herrera -- 3,050
Marcelo Herrera -- 2,880

As expected the script has flipped here, and I expect Trulsen and Kinczllers will remain the last two in when the final field is decided.


Long Shots

Afanasy Bereznity -- 2,450
Perry Mockler -- 2,255
Cestmir Marcek -- 2,185
Agustin Herrera -- 2,150

None of these has a real shot anymore. Bereznity has been very good lately but there's too much ground to make up. Perhaps next year.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Anil Mehul -- 2nd to 1st singles. An incredible year, and with a good finish he can remain on top. Objectively by ratings, he's only the world's third-best player, but Mehul finds a way to win more often than most, and it's been enough a remarkable amount of the time.

Girish Girsh -- 3rd singles(unchanged), 592nd to unranked doubles. With Cincinatti a very noteworthy exception, Girsh still isn't winning the big matches as much as he should.

Prakash Mooljee -- 49th to 50th singles, 751st to 453rd doubles. Mooljee's doubles ranking is finally on the rise, and we could potentially see him in the WTC for Sri Lanka by the end of the year. He's improved his serve a bit in recent months in accordance with the new calculations, but the lone loss in recent tournaments to Zakirov stung a bit. He could make his goal of being seeded for next year's AO, or not -- much of that will depend on his big finish that starts in a little over a month. For now, it's practice and training.

Shreya Ujjaval -- 64th to 56th singles, 98th to 99th doubles. Treading water more or less. Perhaps next year he'll be able to move up again.

Shyam Senepathy -- 215th to 204th singles. Looks like he has stalled. Senepathy hilariously tried to qualify for a couple of Masters and the USO, losing his first qualifying match each time.

Ritwik Dudwadkar -- 1000th to 548th juniors. He's been on a relative tear, and now has won more matches than he lost after the brutal start. Still needs to progress a little more to move up to tier-4 events though.

Ritwik Suksma -- 618th to 590th juniors. Suksma is not doing as well. Nobody has picked him up, and he's been playing tier-4 events and clearly not ready for them yet.

Manager Ranking -- 2nd(unchanged), 36.3k to 38.9k points. Starting to pull away from hayato now.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Quarterfinals
Sri Lanka(4th) vs. France(7th), Grass

Monday: A. Mehul d. D. Poilblan, 6-3, 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-3
Tuesday: G. Girsh d. T. Bourdet, 6-4, 6-4, 6-2
Wednesday: R. Iraugui/T. Rey d. S. Ujjaval/R. Kuttikad, 6-4, 6-3, 6-1
Thursday: A. Mehul d. T. Bourdet, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3
Friday: G. Girsh d. D. Poilblan, 6-3, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3

Sri Lanka defeats France, 4-1!!

We stay at 4th in the world rankings, having moved up past Germany prior to this due to them losing some in juniors competition. This went pretty much as expected, we just needed Mehul and Girsh to take care of business and they did that. Our next opponent is a surprise though. Sweden was favored to handle Peru on grass, and they should have. Leading 2-1, Trulsen just needed to beat Thiago Herrera and it would have been over -- but he lost in a stunning 7-6(8), 7-6(6), 7-5 upset, and Peru took the tie 3-2! It'll be a grass matchup again so we should be able to handle them, I figure it to be similar results to what we had here.

On the other side, the Czech Republic beat Spain, and the United States finished off Germany, both by 4-1 margins. That matchup could go either way, and will come down to doubles and the Marcek-Mockler encounter on hardcourt. Most likely though, it will be us against the Czechs again in the final.

First though we need to take care of business against Peru in a couple of weeks.

[Umbrella]

Bummer about Suksma. I think he could be a good player if someone got him.

In other world 1 news, Jakob Heinen won his first JG4 tournament, and made the semis in doubles. His endurance is starting to get high enough that he can make deep runs in JG4 without dying.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Semifinals
Peru(7th) vs. Sri Lanka(4th), Grass

Monday: G. Girsh d. T. Herrera, 6-4, 7-6(5), 7-6(11)
Tuesday: A. Mehul d. M. Herrera, 7-5, 7-6(2), 6-3
Wednesday: S. Ujjaval/R. Kuttikad d. J. Torres/E. Echiveri, 6-3, 6-4, 6-7(4), 7-5
Thursday: A. Mehul d. T. Herrera, 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-1, 6-4
Friday: G. Girsh d. M. Herrera, 6-3, 6-3, 6-4

Sri Lanka defeats Peru, 5-0!!

I definitely expected to win, but getting the rare doubles victory and a clean sweep was a surprise. Thiago Herrera showed why he was able to beat Trulsen last week, clearly playing at the top of his game, opportunistic on break points and serving very well. Ultimately though our players were just too strong, and we brushed them aside to advance to the final. The US-Czech matchup came down to not just the final rubber but in fact the final set. Cestmir Marcek and Perry Mockler went the distance with Mockler delivering the narrow 3-2 victory for the Americans, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7(4), 6-2. The two-time defending champions, winners three of the past four years, are out in the semfinals. Iglar is still incredible but both Marcek and their doubles players are a shadow of what they once were.

We stay at 4th but are within striking distance of both Argentina and the Czech Republic. The final against the USA will be on hardcourt, and for the first time we are favored to win it after failing at the last hurdle twice. World no. 3 doubles player Chad Dring basically assures them a point there, but it's hard to see them winning more than one rubber if that in singles. Gaskell might pull it off on a good day, but Mockler should be a pretty easy mark for our top guys. The Americans are a much better matchup for us, so I think we got a stroke of luck here. It should be a foregone conclusion, but nothing's certain until you win the match between the lines.

Elsewhere ...

With the rare chance to play a tournament in front of a home crowd, Ritwik Dudwadkar was the #2 seed at tier-5 Colombo and won both singles and doubles with relative ease. He's now won three out of his last four events, and is close to being ready to jump up in competition. Probably two more at this level and he was still pretty tired at the end of this one. He'll get four weeks now, which is a longer break than he's had since basically ever.

Coming Up ...

A practice week, and then it's on to Shanghai. The top ranking is in play there -- Mehul was the runner-up last year and he'll need to at least make the semifinals to stay on top, in addition to the usual importance of any Masters.

[Brian Swartz]

Shanghai Masters

Our friendly neighborhood down-on-his-luck player Shreya Ujjaval once again repeated last year's results. He qualified, then lost to Andre Herrera in three sets, the first of which was a tight tiebreak that probably could have won him the match. It wasn't a great first round for the Herreras overall though. Agustin lost to Davide Poilblan in one of the best first-round matchups, and Marcelo barely escaped against a qualifier. Bereznity was pushed to 7-5 in the third by Caminha, while Mockler needed a pair of tiebreaks to get by Farkas, but no other seeds fell at the first hurdle.

Thiago Herrera barely escaped Bourdet 7-5 in the third in the next round, Marcek was pushed to a pair of tough sets, M. Herrera again barely survived a qualifier, and Bereznity didn't learn from his trials and was unceremoniously dumped by John Condon of all people. The third round was straight-forward except for one of the biggest surprises of the tournament. Anil Mehul quite clearly outplayed Peter Sampras, but the American saved 12 of 16 break points and stole a tiebreak and nearly the match. 6-7(4), 7-6(4), 6-4 was the final, with Mehul almost getting his week spoiled very early.

Mehul(T. Herrera) and Girsh(Gaskell) handled their opponents in competitive straight-sets wins. The other two quarterfinals were a lot more complicated. Perry Mockler has found a fountain of youth or something, knocking off Benda 7-6(5), 6-2! It's his second Masters semi of the year, but most of the time he's been dismissed early. Iglar needed three sets to dismiss Caratti, who continues to plug away. In the semis Mehul took care of Mockler despite another tough day on the break chances(2 of 9). Hopefully he snaps out of that. In the other one, Iglar put Girish Girsh down a set, but Girsh was relentless on return and came back for a big 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 win! It doesn't erase the USO loss, but it sure is nice. Two out of the last three he's taken, and should have had the middle one. A trend perhaps?

In the all-Sri Lanka final, the first of it's kind in a tournament of this value, Girsh was the better player by a hair -- and lost for the fifth straight time this year. 7-6(6), 6-4. Mehul won both break points he had, and Girsh failed on 6 of 7. Unfortunately for the junior player, this is not just a trend but a clear, repetitive pattern. Anil Mehul has all but locked up the year-end #1 now, taking his 8th Masters Shield and first of 2045.


Elsewhere ...

Prakash Mooljee was at his third tier-1 challenger and first in several months, in Rennes. As the third seed, he was still the clear favorite. It came down to a semifinal against Gael Monfils. The crowd and a bit of an off day for Mooljee were enough to make this match very hazardous. 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 was the final, a comeback win for my guy, and he smashed everyone else to claim is 14th challenger title and first at the tier-1 level. Last year at this time he was suffering the ignominy of a first-round exit at Tiburon, so this is a much better way to spend the week. A quarterfinal in doubles isn't bad either. Mooljee rockets up to 37th in the world now, a new high. He's 135 points back of 32nd place, his goal by the Australian Open. That's still looking a bit unlikely but this was a good step.


Coming Up ...

Jury's still out on whether Mehul and Girsh will defend their Valencia/Swiss titles in a couple weeks. Either way the Paris Masters is next, setting the final field for the Tour Finals which will be held in the Ukraine.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the World Tour Finals
Post-Shanghai Edition

Last year it was basically over by this point. Do we have any more drama this year?

In -- cut is at 4550 right now

Anil Mehul -- 11340
Antonin Iglar -- 9470
Girish Girsh -- 7770
Bjorn Benda -- 7630
Gustavo Caratti -- 6275

It appears that the only drama left is for the #3 spot ... and unless Benda can repeat his improbable Paris title from last year, not even that.


Probable

Pierce Gaskell -- 4440
Elias Trulsen -- 3550

Gaskell is probably upwards of 99% chance right now, and will almost certainly be official before Paris. The last two spots likely go down to the final week.


Contenders

Mugur Kinczllers -- 3460
------------------------
Thiago Herrera -- 3230

It really boils down to a three-man race for two spots. There's no good reason to think Thiago Herrera is likely to get back in, but all he would need is one good tournament. It's far too close for Trulsen and Kinczllers to rest on their laurels or relax at all.


Long Shots

Marcelo Herrera -- 3030
Perry Mockler -- 2715
Afanasy Bereznity -- 2675
Cestmir Marcek -- 2555

Marcelo Herrera is fading and none of the others here really have a chance anymore. Bereznity's early loss in Shanghai doomed him, otherwhise he might still have an outside chance.

[Brian Swartz]

October

Ends up there was one tournament to talk about, with Girish Girsh heading back to the Valencia Open(500, Indoors), which he won last year. Anil Mehul took the week off. It was really a tough call both ways, right on the line as to whether both players should enter. Girsh, the top seed and prohibitive favorite to repeat, cruised except for a semi-final clash with Mugur Kinczllers. That he barely survived, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, before flattening surprise finalist Xavier Caminha, who'd knocked off Trulsen to get there. Girsh dropped just two games in the anticlimactic title match.

And so it's on to Paris. All four of my players are in action next week -- it's always an important one as the last event for most of the world's best, those who aren't headed to the Tour Finals.

[Brian Swartz]

Paris Masters

I didn't have time to take a close look at the Race standings coming into Paris, but as it was it would have been moot. Thiago Herrera went awol, not even entering practice tournaments going in. That made him fall even further behind, and then he lost in the third round to a qualifier -- the fourth-ranked Peruvian, Andre Herrera who impressively made the quarterfinals. So that was pretty much that, just a matter of how the final standings shook out, but the eight-man field with Kinczllers and Trulsen in was assured. Shreya Ujjaval, who lost in the first round last year, qualified and made it one further before meeting Kinczllers.

Other than that, everything pretty much went as expected early on. Mehul had a bit of trouble with Kinczllers and Benda was pushed a bit by Herrera but the top four seeds all went through in straight sets to the semifinals. Mehul topped Benda fairly routinely, and in a much closer match Girsh beat Antonin Iglar for the second straight time, 6-4, 7-6(4). That set up a second all-Sri Lanka final in less than a month. All signs pointed to the fresher Anil Mehul, who didn't play the previous week, taking this one again. But for the first time this year, Girish Girsh got the upper hand and his 3rd Masters Shield, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4. He was the more persistent returner in an otherwhise close match, and snapped a five-match losing streak.

Elsewhere ...

The others were in action too as I mentioned. Prakash Mooljee was the top seed at tier-2 challenger Medellin, where the biggest concern was third-seeded Spaniard Simon Davila. They met in the final but it was a pretty routine 6-1, 6-4 success for Mooljee who also won in doubles. The latter victory will have impact beyond this week -- he will now replace Kuttikad as Ujjaval's partner in the WTC Final. Quite a place to make your first appearance ...

Ritwik Dudwadkar nearly pulled off the twin killing in Benin City as well, but lost a final already worn out from previous matches, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4. Despite that it was another fine week, and he gets the next one completely off.

Coming Up ...

Nothing for a couple weeks, then the World Tour Finals are upon us. Mooljee will also play in the final challenger of the year that week.

[Brian Swartz]

Final 2045 Race Standings

Anil Mehul -- 11690
Antonin Iglar -- 10080
Girish Girsh -- 9120
Bjorn Benda -- 8170
Gustavo Caratti -- 6685
Pierce Gaskell -- 4470
Elias Trulsen -- 3910
Mugur Kinczllers -- 3670

Mehul has now clinched the year-end #1, no matter what happens at the Tour Finals. There are three newcomers this year, all from Girsh's 'Generation Flash': Caratti, Trulsen, and Kinczllers. Between that and Iglar's evident decline, or slump at the very least, it appears that it's finally time to turn the page again.

[Umbrella]

Ah, an old friend

http://i.imgur.com/OuFLfXP.jpg
http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/[Imgur](http://i.imgur.com/OuFLfXP.jpg)

[Brian Swartz]

Haha, that's interesting.

[Umbrella]

Jakob Heinen just won both singles and doubles in Guangzhou (JG4) this week, losing a grand total of 5 games for the tournament in singles. This should move him into #1 for Germany, and the top 10 worldwide, for U16. He'll likely get his first experience in Junior Team Cup play in a few weeks.

[Brian Swartz]

World Tour Finals

The first group this year consisted of Iglar, Benda, Gaskell, and Kinczllers, while the second was Mehul, Girsh, Caratti, and Trulsen. That's as tough a draw as we could get actually, an unfortunate development. Anil Mehul lost a tiebreak to Trulsen but still won fairly comfortably in three, while Girish Girsh easily beat Caratti in their opening matches. Next they faced off against each other, with Girsh taking it 6-3, 6-4. That meant Mehul and Caratti on day three would determine a quarterfinal spot. Mehul started off well with an opening-set bagel, but the Argentine wasn't going to go quietly. He took a tiebreak in the second set, and the final set was close until the end when Anil pulled through 7-5. A narrow escape, but he advanced.

Iglar went through unbeaten in the first group, while everyone else won a match against each other. This meant that for the third straight year, the unlikely Pierce Gaskell advanced out of the group with the second spot due to a slightly better count in sets won during the round-robin phase. His run would end in the semifinals as Girsh permitted him just four games. The second semi was much more competitive, with Mehul able to get past Antonin Iglar, 6-2, 7-6(4) without facing a single break point. The Czech is no longer feared at this point, seemingly a shadow of his formal self.

For the third straight tournament, Mehul and Girsh faced off in an all-Sri Lanka final. Girsh would nearly pull even with Iglar if he won, but this time the fresher Mehul got the better of him, 6-1, 4-6, 6-4. It's his third Tour Finals crown, good enough for a 4th-place tie on the all-time list.

Elsewhere ...

Prakash Mooljee was seeded #2 at Helsinki, his first CH+ event to end the year. He had an easy time of it until the final against 7th-seeded Swede Manfred Borrman. Borrman, a former Top-20 player peaking at 16th, is much lower down than that now at age 31, but he used his experience well. It was an off day serving for Mooljee and he narrowly lost in a tense match the last coupole sets, a match he probably should have won, 6-1, 6-7(4), 7-6(5). Could have gone either way in that final tiebreak. A tough loss. Though just his 5th of the year, it's another setback in his attempt to move up the rankings. Mooljee did not play doubles this week.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Finals
United States(1st) vs. Sri Lanka(4th), Hardcourt

And here we go. Is it finally time for the us to claim our long-awaited title? Let's find out.

Monday: A. Mehul d. P. Mockler, 2-6, 7-6(1), 6-2, 6-4
Tuesday: G. Girsh d. P. Gaskell, 7-5, 6-2, 3-6, 6-2
Wednesday: C. Dring/J. Loudermilk d. S. Ujjaval/P. Mooljee, 6-3, 6-4, 6-0
Thursday: A. Mehul d. P. Gaskell, 6-4, 7-6(4), 6-1
Friday: G. Girsh d. P. Mockler, 6-3, 7-6(2), 6-3

Sri Lanka defeats the United States, 4-1!!

We did it! Finally Sri Lanka can claim the title of World Champions!! The Americans served well all week and the first two singles matches were more tense than expected, but they were overmatched except in doubles. After losing twice in the finals we have finally made it .

This moves us up to 2nd in the world rankings from 4th, with only the US still ahead of us. We should be able to catch them next year. The way things are going right now, I expected us to be favored to defend this championship.

Elsewhere ...

Ritwik Dudwadkar played in what I expect to be his last tier-5 event, another home one in Colombo. He had a tough practice week leading up to it, and while he won in doubles fatigue again caught up to him in losing the singles final. He might have lost anyway, as top-seeded American Vinnie Cone is a more developed player and blasted him 6-2, 6-2.

Up Next ...

The end of the year wrap-ups, including the WTC playoffs, final rankings, projections for next year with the new rating formula, all of that fun stuff.

[digamma]

Congrats to Sri Lanka!

[Brian Swartz]

WTC Playoffs

Unfortunately I didn't get to covering this at the time, so the rankings here are after the ties, not going into them as I prefer.

** Denmark(20th) vs. Austria(15th) -- Denmark has been tempting fate a lot. They've been at the top level for six years now, but this is their fourth straight in a relegation playoff. Austria has been up for the same length of time, but is usually not in this situation. The sporadic involvement of Hammerstein is the main variable here -- when he's been involved and Frankl was younger, they made it to the quarterfinals and even the semifinals once a few years ago. Two wins by Hammerstein and a doubles victory gives the Austrians a 3-2 win, and between two nations with extended stays Denmark is sent down. They have a pair of marginal Top 100 players so right now they're really a borderline country that could pop right back up.

** Japan(27th) vs. Mexico(14th) -- Japan is a nation on the rise, having just moved up from Level 3 to Level 2 a year ago, and looking for back-to-back promotions here. Mexico has been one of the weaker Level 1 nations but has been at that level for well over a decade. The best player for either nation by far is Japan's Akhiro Sugiyama(44th), but he stunningly lost his first match and Mexico prevailed 4-1. While Sugiyama is only 21, the other Japanese player is 34-year-old veteran Shogo Ko, so it's unclear how fast or far they will rise. I expect them to be back in this situation seeking promotion though multiple tims during Sugiyama's career. Mexico hangs on to its top billing but the nation's weakness right now is highlighted by it's lack of a Top 100 singles player. This may have been a temporary stay for them.

**The Netherlands(21st) vs. Croatia(17th) -- The Netherlands is one of those 'not quite good enough' nations. They were relegated to Level 2 seven years ago, and this is their second shot at promotion in three years. Croatia meanwhile promoted last year as Level 2 champions but did not win more than a single rubber in any of their Level 1 ties. They were more than equal to the task here, scoring a 4-1 victory with the only loss in doubles. A pair of good young players in Blagota Cojanovic(53rd) and Sava Cirakovic(38th), both still years away from reaching their primes and on the rise, ensure a bright future for the Croatians. I expect them to be a more competitive foe in the top tier over the next several seasons.

** South Africa(10th) vs. Luxembourg(11th)[/b] -- The Level 2 Champions this year, South Africa beat Luxembourg 3-2 in the final and now they get a rematch to see who moves up. They haven't had a promotion shot in several years(lost 4-1 to Austria) and a decade ago they were a Level 3 country. Since winning Level 3 six years ago, Luxembourg has been in the promotion playoffs every single year since. With one exception, they have all been 3-2 narrow defeats. And they hit the wall here again with a repeat 3-2 setback against South Africa. An 8-6 decision in the fifth set of the doubles match, as South Africa came from two sets down to win it, was the decider. Hard to get closer than that. Unfortunately Luxembourg has no margin for error with only one decent singles player.

South Africa moves up, replacing Denmark, while everyone else stays where they are.

WTC Standings

1. United States -- 2477
2. Sri Lanka -- 2334
3. Argentina -- 2317
4. Czech Republic -- 2287
5. Russia -- 2102
6. Germany -- 2096
7. France -- 2048
8. Peru -- 2038
9. Spain -- 1997
10. South Africa -- 1946

It's jarring to see Spain so low, and to a lesser extent the Czechs are crumbling as well. We're narrowly in second place, but our focus is not on those behind us but on surpassing the United States for the top spot. It is feasible that this year we could reach the pinnacle, completing the journey began many years ago when we were at the very bottom of the heap in 86th.

2046 Preview

Sri Lanka has been drawn in Group 3, where we'll face Germany(6th), Peru(8th), and Austria(15th). Not a 'safe' group, as both of the first two are threats on clay. We should be able to get through though. We'll play Austria first, then Peru(on clay), and finally Germany(but on grass). I don't expect an easy journey, it is a bit tougher group than average, but still no reason we shouldn't win it. It wouldn't surprise me to see Peru qualify over Germany here.

Elsewhere, the US(1st) and Russia(5th) should be able to handle business in Group 1. Argentina(3rd) looks to have an easy road through Group 2 but depending on how things go either Sweden(14th) or Italy(16th) could join them. In the final group, the Czech Republic(4th) and France(7th) should be able to stop upstart Croatia(17th) from making much headway this year.

[Brian Swartz]

Final 2045 Top Ten Rankings

1. Anil Mehul(SRI, 29) -- 13,040

A remarkable and unexpected year leaves Mehul comfortably in the top spot at the conclusion.

2. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 28) -- 10,580

If you told me 12 months ago Iglar wouldn't win a Slam this year and would be in serious danger of dropping to third in the world, I would have said you needed a straight-jacket. Frankly he looked uninspired in '45, almost bored in fact. Iglar lost double-digit matches(81-11 is no slouch, of course) for the first time in six seasons. The question for next year is this: does he have any fire left, or he is ok with his place in history and willing to simply fade away?

3. Girish Girsh(SRI, 26) -- 10,170

Girsh was disappointing though it was his best year yet. Only one more year before aging begins to erode him from his peak.

4. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 31) -- 8,200

It's taken a lot longer than I thought, seems several years now that I've been speculating on how long it would be, but Benda's reign on clay does finally appear to be over. Even Gorritepe wasn't all that much better at this age -- Benda's determination to remain relevant into his 30s is very impressive.

5. Gustavo Caratti(ARG, 26) -- 6,885

Argentina's new hero has been gradually moving up since his French Open tour de force, and I expect him to emphatically unseat Benda and move up to fourth this year.

6. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 29) -- 4,670

As long as he's good enough to pile up points in the smaller events(500/250s), Gaskell will stay marginally relevant. Unfortunately his legacy will be his amazing Slam record: 0-15 in quarterfinals. Four straight at the AO, the same at Wimbledon where it's also five of six. Four straight semifinals(all losses) at the WTF. The mere law of averages would seem to make such a thing almost impossible. Gaskell's been good at times, but he could have been oh so much better.

7. Elias Trulsen(SWE, 26) -- 3,910

8. Mugur Kinczllers(ITA, 26) -- 3,870

Both Trulsen and Kinczllers are slowly but surely moving up ... but both have also basically peaked. They'll still surpass Gaskell and eventually Benda, but I don't think they have any real chance of challenging for the top.

9. Thiago Herrera(PER, 28) -- 3,320

Just starting his decline now. For a couple of years, Thiago was the second or third best on clay that the tour could boast. Now that this is no longer the case, his calling card has expired.

10. Perry Mockler(USA, 29) -- 3,145

Mockler had an interesting resurgence over the last few months. It'll be short-lived, but it was still a feel-good story after it looked like he was totally done a year ago.


Six of the Top 10 are 28 or older. Meanwhile, five of the next eight players are in the 23-25 range. The next year or two is likely to see a switch there but there are no obviously outstanding players in that group.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Anil Mehul -- 2nd to 1st singles. Mehul was borderline dominant at the age of 29, winning 3 Slams and the WTF, along with a lone masters at Shanghai. He also had five runner-up finishes in the big events for a 76-9 record, the best of his career. Two years ago, when he was also #1, he had the same number of defeats with three fewer victories. With a sizable lead over Iglar and Girsh, he'll simply seek to stay on top as long as possible and repeat as much of this success as possible.

Girish Girsh -- 4th to 3rd singles, 612th to unranked doubles. More wins(78, previous high of 74) and fewer losses(12, at least 17 in all other years at the elite level) make this by far Girsh's best season. It's still hard to overlook a 2-6 record against Mehul. Had he even won a bare majority, he would have been close to the #1 spot, at least second. Not hard to figure his marching orders this year.

Prakash Mooljee -- 72nd to 44th singles, 617th to 304th doubles. Ironically, given that he finally started to have doubles success towards the end of the year including his debut at the WTC Finals, Mooljee will be playing less doubles this year. Another stellar challenger year with 8 titles and 2 finals for a 53-5 record, the most wins he's had and just above his four losses from last year. Mooljee's ranking is just below where Girsh was at this point(40th). It's time for him to take the next step. In practice tournaments he's been playing at a level of roughly 20th in the world, which is where I'd estimate his playing strength having not looked at the ratings extensively yet. He needs to get into the elite Top-32 group now, so he'll be focusing more on singles and a slightly more aggressive schedule to get there. Usually this isn't necessary, but right now there's a lot of active players in this range. Last year his two worst results were in his first two challengers(both QF losses). Improving on those is the first step, and playing a 250 or two might be necessary. The goal of being seeded at the Australian Open isn't going to happen but it should shortly afterwards. Indian Wells is the current target and a very achievable one.

Shreya Ujjaval -- 52nd to 57th singles, 125th to 157th doubles. Don't tell Ujjaval's ranking this, it didn't get the message, but he has continued to improve. Ujjaval didn't play a single challenger, a scheduling error that delays his ascension but he's too good to be kept down permanently. I'd expect somewhat better results this year, and hopefully he can have a big event or two to break through.

Shyam Senepathy -- 166th singles. Despite a ridiclous 47(!!!) events and no doubles, Senepathy did graduate futures this year and moves into the challenger ranks. Most often he crashed out early but there was the Orleans CH+ where he reached the final. He also played most of the Slams and Masters, usually losing in the first qualifying opportunity. He's still on an upward path and is still only 21.

Ritwik Dudwadkar -- unranked to 209th juniors. Dudwadkar has now established himself and will move to Tier-4 events. He might be able to get away with Tier-3s but it's much safer to play at least a few 4s and let the always volatile early-season junior rankings stabilize some. In terms of training, he's got a basic level of ability in both skill and service and will soon start gradually emphasizing all-court play(skill) slightly more and more to an increasing degree. I think it was seven straight singles losses to start his career early in the year but he finished at 23-13 so it was a good close to the season. Dudwadkar is now Sri Lanka's #1 active juniors player.

Manager Ranking -- 2nd(unchanged), 30.6k points to 39.9k. A sizable lead now on third place, although the gap to oprice in first is still massive it has closed significantly to less than 19k. In a few years, who knows.

[Brian Swartz]

2046 Preview

These ratings are using the new formula as discussed in the tips and tactics thread. As such, I can't compare year-to-year improvement as I used the old formula at that time.

1. Anil Mehul(85%, 8.62) -- The third-best player in the world on paper, having the kind of 2045 Mehul had was a display of determination and competitiveness. His career has now wildly surpassed my expectations if he doesn't win another match, but I think he's got a few victories left in him yet :).

2. Antonin Iglar(85%, 8.73) -- Iglar should still be the best hardcourt player in the world. As mentioned it's about how much drive he has left and how much he adds to his legacy now. Several months younger than Mehul, he is actually slightly 'older' in tennis terms due to faster aging, but that has only diminished his advantadge. It hasn't vanished completely, last year's results on the court notwithstanding.

3. Girish Girsh(92%, 8.78) -- Girsh has been the world's best player on paper for several months now. In terms of the dry, abstract analysis, this should also be his best year in terms of level of play at least.

The top three are very interesting here. It's the first time since I started playing in this world 15 game years ago that I can legitimately say all three of them could easily be #1 this season. Girsh may be the best on paper but being third in the rankings means seeding is against him for the time being, and he has relatively speaking been an underachiever.

4. Bjorn Benda(79%, 8.35) -- Benda still has an elite serve and maximum clay proficiency. Increasingly though, the other aspects just aren't there anymore.

5. Gustavo Caratti(92%, 8.39) -- Like Girsh and the others in this age range, this should be Caratti's objectively best prime year. Time to strike while the iron is hot, or more specifically before his power erodes any further as it is already starting to do. Not quite an elite player from a technical point of view but he's getting closer. I expect Caratti to be fourth this year, getting past Benda but still well back of the Big Three. Even that is not assured.

6. Pierce Gaskell(84%, 8.43) -- There's no surer sign that a manager thinks a player is done in singles than when they start investing in doubles. Looks like Gaskell is making that step. Objectively you can see he's every bit as good as Caratti and Benda, but overplaying has bred premature defeats so consistently that I'd expect more of the same. He has virtually no real chance of matching them.

7. Elias Trulsen(91%, 8.34) -- Nobody in the world has a better serve, and his speed and mental game are unquestionably elite as well. Too much time spent on doubles earlier in his career, and an inability to compete with the best from the baseline prevent Trulsen from being a real contender. He's still a threat though, especially on grass.

8. Mugur Kinczllers(89%, 8.34) -- Kinczllers is nearly the opposite of Trulsen. An elite player in terms of technical skill, his mental and athletic abilities are only slightly above-average. He's a little past his peak but won't decline as quickly as Gaskell and Benda will so he could yet move up a bit. This is his career-best ranking, something that can be said for much of the Top 10 right now. I expect Kinczllers to hang around in the bottom half of the Top 10 for another year, maybe two.

4 through 8 are packed together very tightly. I think strength and his current position at a strong 5th make Caratti the best of the bunch but there could be some excellent matches among this group. It'll be curious to see how it all shakes out.

9. Thiago Herrera(86%, 8.16) -- Herrera no longer has the power to mask his cement feet and the fact that he's not quite at the elite level in terms of baseline play. He's on his way out now, though he'll still snag the occasional big clay victory.

10. Perry Mockler(83%, 8.05) -- Still a pretty good baseline player, but Mockler's athleticism is actually below-average at this point and his serve is starting to fade. He's had a nice recent run of results but it's a mirage.

12. Afanasy Bereznity(95%, 8.14) -- Just now turning 24, Bereznity is still getting better. His serve is quality right now, a little more work on the baseline game would help but he's poised to jump onto the first page this year. The new Russian no. 1, he's seems clearly to be the best of the next generation at this point.

13. Agustin Herrera(94%, 8.15) -- A steady improver over the past year or two, the 'third Herrera' probably becomes Peru's best this year and the latest moderate threat on clay from that nation. He's limited by the same problem Thiago has had -- he's strong but has to compensate for slowness of foot and limited rally skills.

16. Davide Poilblan(93%, 8.32) -- Poilblan has the skills, he just needs to bounce back from a slightly disappointing '45 in which he made little progress in the rankings. Time to see results now from the young Frenchmen. On paper, the best player not presently in the Top 10. Show us.

17. Theodore Bourdet(94%, 8.18) -- The best serve in the world, even a bit better than Trulsen's, but baseline play is lacking. Usually that means sporadic results, which is what I expect here.

18. Garreth McCuskey(93%, 8.23) -- The next top American, though that transition probably won't happen this year, McCuskey has everything in spades except for a baseline game. He's woefully inadequate there, but he'll continue to rise due to his other positives.

The 'On Deck' Crew

The five players listed in the 11-18 range will all figure to reach the Top 10 eventually. They'll start making their push in earnest this year, being the next group after Girsh's 'Generation Flash' that now is ascendant. There's a lot of competition in the next group coming up, a group that includes Mooljee. All of these are just now turning 22, or will in the next several months. As always they are listed by their current ranking.

37. Hugo Jurco(99%, 7.81) -- If he only had a brain. Jurco would kill to have the meager mental game of a Kinczllers. I don't think I have seen a weaker player in the clutch who projected as a Top-10 performer.

40. Sava Cirakovic(99%, 7.76) -- Already a very good serve, decent package athletically, but Cirakovic is quite a ways behind the curve in rallying skills.

41. Tristan Benitzer(100%, 7.56) -- Technique is similar to Cirakovic, but he's physically weak. Very, very fast, but it's not enough to compensate.

44. Prakash Mooljee(99%, 8.18) -- Serve is weaker than the other players at this point but it's coming long. No question Mooljee has the best overall package, and the clarity of this fact will only continue to grow since he's the most dedicated player of the bunch. Overall I have him tied for 11th. His time to make his mark is most definitely at hand.

45. Tomas Niklas(99%, 8.14) -- Don't sleep on Niklas either. Technical skills are lagging but not too horribly, and he's an elite athlete any way you slice it. I expect him to follow Mooljee up the rankings, and not at a distance.

47. Djurdje Moicevic(99%, 7.48) -- I didn't think much of Moicevic when I first noticed him in an early-round upset of Mooljee about a year and a half ago. He's growing on me though. His talent is massive(not sure I've seen another 5.0 before) and the serve is already very good. Rally skill is horrid though(3.9/3.9 right now). I haven't seen a Top-50 player that I recall before without a skill rating well into the 4s. He seems to be a comer but needs a lot of training to really be a threat. Moicevic definitely bears watching.

48. Akihiro Sugiyama(99%, 7.31) -- Sugiyama, the top Japanese player, has been largely ignored up to this point but his accomplishments have forced me to notice him. He's several months younger than the rest of the group, having just turned 21. He also appears to be somewhat overranked, and there are weaknesses(skill, speed, endurance). He's very strong though and has a quality serve. Might stagnate this year, but if he uses his time wisely things could get interesting for him.

49. Blagota Cojanovic(100%, 7.75) -- Technique is sorely lacking but elite speed and mental toughness make Cojanovic unquestionably relevant.

The above grouping consists of 8 players ranked 37th-49th. It's quite a packed set of young pros, and they will all be trying to force their way out of the challengers and into the elite level of competition this year. If all or even most continue to improve, it will be a deep group of good if not great players that will emerge here.

57. Shreya Ujjaval(97%, 8.18) -- Ujjaval is that rare player who needs to work more on his serve, but he's every bit the equal of Mooljee/Niklas still and better than the rest of the others. He's too good to continue stagnating for long.

166. Shyam Senepathy(99%, 6.76) -- Slow, and needs to work more on his skill(3.5/3.5 presently). There are a lot of worse challenger players though and he should continue to slowly rise despite himself.

209(J). Ritwik Dudwadkar(68%, 2.98) -- Above-average speed and mental game but everything else is a major work in progress at such a young age.

[Umbrella]

I found a guy who could be a stud. Gunther Piel, with a TE=8.89, and TESS=16.17. He's another German, so now I have two German players along with a German trainer. Completely unintentional, but that is how everything played out. The down side is his aging is 104%, so he'll peak pretty early, but I had to take a chance with this guy.

[Brian Swartz]

I agree with you, he looks very good. It's always a good idea to be willing to jump for something better. I hope you stick with Piel for his whole career, he can definitely be a great player. I wouldn't worry as much about the aging. It is a flaw but not a huge one -- you'll be able to train him more early on than a slower-aging player because of the endurance, and he'll be able to play better events ... I don't view fast aging to be as much of a weakness as I used to.

[Brian Swartz]

2046 World Team Cup, Group 3, First Round
Austria(15th) vs. Sri Lanka(2nd), Hardcourt

Monday: G. Girsh d. J. Hammerstein, 7-5, 6-2, 7-5
Tuesday: A. Mehul d. H. Frankl, 6-0, 6-0, 6-0
Wednesday: J. Hammerstein/M. Ebner d. S. Ujjaval/P. Mooljee, 7-5, 6-3, 6-4
Thursday: J. Hammerstein d. A. Mehul, 6-4, 6-4, 4-6, 4-6, 9-7
Friday: G. Girsh d. H. Frankl, 6-1, 6-0, 6-0

Sri Lanka defeats Austria, 3-2!!

That was closer than expected, though we were never in danger of actually losing after Girsh won the first match. Rather stunning to see Mehul lose that epic fourth tie after Hammerstein(2nd in doubles) has been a doubles-focused player the last few years. He's all Austria has these days though. Due to the closeness of the tie we are presently second in the group behind Germany, while also retaining our #2 world ranking with the victory.

Peru, on clay, will be our next one after the Australian Open. That'll be a tricky one, but assuming we win, we'll book our spot in the quarterfinals.

Coming Up ...

Mooljee will play at the Noumea(tier-1) challenger next week as his AO warmup. The following week there'll be 250 action for Mehul + Girsh, as well as the first juniors event of the year for Dudwadkar.

[Umbrella]

And to keep on other non Sri-Lanka world 1 news (I guess I'm now the German shill), Jakob Heinen has now won his second JG4 daily double, taking both singles and doubles in his home country. This was his first non-hard court singles win, which is nice to see. I think this will sneak him into the top 100 juniors for the first time. It looks like it's time for him to move up to JG3.

He'll now just practice until his first Junior Team Cup competition in three weeks, leading top ranked Germany in the U16 field. Germany is in a group with Czech Republic (#11), Australia (#7), and we're still waiting to see which of Cyprus (#20), Greece(#13), Italy (#19), and Russia (#14) gets the fourth spot.

[ntndeacon]

Javier Canoli is about to compete in his first amateur competition in a couple weeks. we'll see how fast he moves out of the amateurs into the future tournaments

[Brian Swartz]

Usually takes some months for me due to the number of matches you can play in an amateur, then several weeks off in between if its a successful one. Definitely looking forward to seeing how he fares.

[Brian Swartz]

January

Prakash Mooljee was up first at one of the first pair of challenger, both Tier-1s. He was at Noumea as the second seed, while top-seeded Hugo Jurco was the defending champion. It looked like the two were on a collison course and indeed that's what happened. As shown in the rundown to start the year, Mooljee has surpassed Jurco but he wasn't necessarily favored here. The Czech Republic's best young hope is a hardcourt specialist while Mooljee is still lower than I'd like him to be on this surface(37 and rising). He took the first set, but was regularly under more pressure on his serve and couldn't hold Jurco off in a 3-6, 7-6(2), 6-4 defeat. A tough one, this ended any realistic hope of being seeded at the Australian Open. Everything for him will now depend on his draw there. He should beat almost anyone who isn't seeded and some of those that will be, but if he gets matched against a Top 15 or so player then it could be an early exit which would unfortunately delay his ascent. It's one of those times where Mooljee could really use some luck here.

The next week, the other three were in action. Anil Mehul was at the Sydney 250, where he got a bit of resistance from Theodore Bourdet in the semis but still came through in straight sets. In the finals though, he was shockingly upset by Pierce Gaskell, 6-4, 7-5! Alarming, it wasn't that close -- Mehul was thoroughly outclassed. It's just the second time in 20 career meetings that he's lost to Gaskell, with the last one six and a half years ago! Combined the Hammerstein match a couple weeks back, he already has had two poor upsets and clearly is not on top of his game, perhaps a hangover from the off-season, relaxing too much after the great season last year, or something. Whatever it is, he needs to step it up if he wants to have any real chance of defending his AO title.

Girish Girsh rammed his way through the Auckland 250, and was never really challenged. Davide Poilblan was the second seed and was routinely dispatched in a 6-3, 6-3 final. Girsh looks reasonably sharp and his hopes from Australia are high. Ritwik Dudwadkar was a 4-seed for his first tier-4 juniors, and it did not go particularly well. He had a very tight first-rounder against a qualifier, then went down to unseeded Russian Marat Astapovich in the next round, 6-2, 0-6, 6-3. Astapovich is a strong hardcourt player which was the main factor here, but it was still a bit unexpected. Mooljee lost in the semifinals as part of the top-seeded doubles team, and he'll definitely be hanging around the tier-4 level for a while by the look of this. A couple weeks off and he'll be back out there again.

Up Next

All three senior players head to the Australian Open. Mehul is struggling, Girsh is sailing, and Mooljee needs a reasonable draw so he can at least match last year's second-round placing. It's time to find out who among the top players used the off-season to prepare for the new year well ...

[Brian Swartz]

One thing I forgot to look at for the year's start is how Ritwik Dudwadkar is doing among his age group. As of week 5 he was ranked 218th. Among players younger than him, the top one is Jakob Heinen(yay, Umbrella!) at 108th. Heinen is four weeks younger so I imagine they'll be playing a few times down the line which should be a blast. Germany could be a rival again the WTC eventually. Also worth mentioning is Uruguay's Florentino Suarez(164th) who won't even turn 15 for a couple more weeks -- he's about eight months younger than Dudwadkar and off to a great start. A total of 12 players are the same age or younger and ranked higher, which means the other 206 are older players. This is pretty typical but a couple players more than usual. Certainly my competitors tend to start off slow and finish strong due to low aging, but it's a good 'rough and dirty' way to see how well he's doing compared to his most likely potential rivals.

[Brian Swartz]

2046 Australian Open

Shreya Ujjaval had a somewhat unfortunate draw, going up against 16th-seeded Bourdet in the first round. It was a competitive match, but he lost in straight sets. Prakash Mooljee, on the other hand, was quite fortunate. His first opponent was Ivo Montalvo(ARG, 77th). Mooljee surrendered just six games, controlling the match easily and dominating break points(11 of 13 overall won) to crush him. Another early story was that the Peruvians came in unprepared with not nearly enough matches played. 12th-seeded Agustin Herrera was one of three seeds to lose in their opening match and by far the highest, falling to 46th-ranked Mqabukonyongolo Nkomo, South Africa's top player, in shockingly easy fashion -- 6-4, 6-3, 6-1. Thiago Herrera, the world's #9, barely outlasted Hector Deblock, 7-5 in the 5th.

In the second round, Mooljee faced 28-seed Khasan Zakirov of Uzbekistan. It was their sixth meeting, with Mooljee winning three in a row until losing in the Samarkand challenger final last year. Here he took an opening-set tiebreak and then thumped Zakirov from there out for another straight-set win and his first third-round appearance in a Slam. Thiago Herrera had no heroics this time in a close straight-set loss to Jens Petersen of Denmark, a humiliatingly early defeat for a Top-10 player. The rest pretty much went according to form, though Radek Smitala was pushed hard, going the max against Chinese wild-card Yoo-ngan Doon. Another American, 31st-seed Philip Carter, had his second five-setter in as many rounds, going to 10-8 in the decider.

Anil Mehul and Girish Girsh continued to cruise in the third round, taking out a pair of Americans in Smitala and Fabricio Gilardino. They've won all matches so far easily in straight sets as you might expect. Mooljee had Marcelo Herrera up next, the best of the Peru players remaining. He still wasn't up to full speed though, and in the biggest win of his career by far Prakash thumped him 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, moving into the fourth round! Other notable result included a extremely tight match that saw Federer survive in five over Condon, and Peter Sampras pulling off a fairly stunning upset over Trulsen in four sets.

In the fourth round, Mooljee's gravy train ended as he was Mehul's opponent. All the cliches about how the achievement was in just getting here, etc. applied to this. It was a mismatch, and although Mooljee stole a set Mehul outclassed him as expected, 6-3, 3-6, 6-0, 6-2. Roger Federer had another five-setter and won again, this time coming from two sets down against fellow veteran Pierce Gaskell. Girsh had a bit closer match than in earlier rounds but still won in straight sets over Bourdet, and Caratti staged a comeback from being down two sets as well, over Marcek.

On to the second week, where it was mostly the usual suspects with Bourdet and Federer crashing the party. The Frenchman met up with Mehul and made it a match before losing in a competitive four-setter. Federer wasn't done yet, and knocked off Bjorn Benda 6-4, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. Antonin Iglar and Mugur Kinczllers, both of whom sailed through to this point, had a trio of 6-4 sets, all won by Iglar. In the last match, Girsh had to survive a pair of tiebreaks to do it, but he still hasn't lost a set after defeating Caratti.

At 29 years old, Roger Federer(15th, SUI) is making his first appearance in the second week of a Slam. That's quite an unusual set of circumstances. Also interesting was that Anil Mehul, after defeating him in a pretty close straight-sets win, reached the final without having played anyone ranked higher. The second semi was the more anticipated, with the winner between Iglar and Girsh set to take the #2 ranking after the tournament. Girsh prevailed for the fourth time in their last five meetings, 6-3, 6-7(11), 6-3, 6-4, allowing only one break in five chances. The career head-to-head is still very much lopsided, but right now Girsh seems to clearly have the upper hand.

Yet another all-Sri Lanka final. Girsh would be within striking distance of the #1 ranking if he won, not to mention that whole first Slam title thing. He was a bit more tired though, while Mehul was still playing at his best in this one. That was enough, though only barely. It looked like Girsh might have it after taking the third set to seize control of the match, but Mehul finished best for a 7-5, 5-7, 2-6, 6-2, 6-4 victory. He's now won 7 total Slams, tying him for sixth on the all-time list with a great many others, including Benda. That's also three straight on hardcourt after he had not won a single one on this surface previously. As for Girsh, he still moves past Iglar into second place, while Mooljee is up to a new high well at 33rd -- right on the edge of the challengers/elite break in the rankings.

Up Next ...

Another tournament for Dudwadkar, while the rest go up against the unprepared Peruvians in the next round of WTC group play.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Group 3, Second Round
Sri Lanka(2nd) vs. Peru(8th), Clay

Monday: A. Mehul d. M. Herrera, 6-2, 6-4, 6-0
Tuesday: G. Girsh d. T. Herrera, 6-1, 6-3, 6-1
Wednesday: S. Ujjaval/P. Mooljee d. J. Torres/E. Echiverri, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2
Thursday: A. Mehul d. T. Herrera, 6-2, 6-4, 6-2
Friday: G. Girsh d. M. Herrera, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2

Sri Lanka defeats Peru, 5-0!!

A rather resounding win as we crush Peru. The theme continues to be their lack of match readiness at the start of the season, though they are getting closer. Mooljee also gets his first WTC doubles win. Still in 2nd, in fact lost a bit of ground despite the one-sided victory as the US has not lost a rubber so far this year. All of this is just the preamble though. We have Germany on grass in our next tie a couple months from now to determine who takes this group. We'll definitely be favored again.


Elsewhere ...

Ritwik Dudwadkar entered one final tier-5 as there was an event in Colombo this week. Partly due to fatigue, he lost in the final both singles and doubles. Florentino Suarez, who I mentioned a bit ago as a very fast-rising young juniors player, beat him soundly 6-2, 6-2. To get through longer events with a lot of matches he just needs endurance to be a bit higher, but it's coming and every juniors player deals with that.

Coming Up ...

Time for the first big break of the year heading into the IW/Miami Masters. Mehul and Girsh will take the whole month off. Mooljee will be playing either a challenger or a bigger event the week before -- eyeing the Delray Beach 250 right now but it really depends on what the prospective fields look like and where he is compared to the challenger cutoff. As of right now he's 58 points below 32nd place in 33rd, but that situation changes pretty much weekly. Either way he figures to be in seeding position for Indian Wells if he has a decent result that week -- only event in the interim for him to defend is a QF result at Dallas(CH2) last year and he'll improve on that barring a disaster. Dudwadkar will take the full four weeks as well. A good solid training break here.

[Umbrella]

I remember seeing Suarez. He and Heinen have met a couple of times, splitting their matches. He's going to be a good one, and I'm surprised nobody has picked him up yet.

[Brian Swartz]

February/March

Only one tournament the final week before Indian Wells. Prakash Mooljee heads to what may or may not be his final challenger, a tier-2 in Singapore. It's a heavy week of challengers and there was only one remotely plausible challenger, 2-seed Akihiro Sugiyama(JPN, 49th) -- and Sugiyama was worn out, losing in the quarterfinals. Mooljee considered Delray Beach(250), but he would have only been the 5th-seed there so who knows what would have happened, and going to Singapore ensured he would be well set up for a chance at winning some matches in the masters events. Major on the majors. As it ended up, 7-seed Shyam Senepathy was the only competitive match at 6-3, 6-4 in the quarters. Mooljee stomped everyone else to snag his 16th challenger crown.

Mooljee moves up to 31st guaranteeing him a seed spot for his first Masters event, and everyone else will have their first tournament in about a month as well.

[Brian Swartz]

Indian Wells Masters

Early Rounds

Shreya Ujjaval crushed a qualifier in the first round, then got flattened by Iglar in the second round. This equaled his results last year here. Can't fault him for losing to the world no. 3 of course. The 19th and 20th seeds, Condon and Smitala, were early casualties and Agustin Herrera almost joined them. Mooljee had a credible opponent in Italian Silvio Boccasino(54th) but advanced easily.

Things started to get hairy in the third round. Quite a few of the higher-ranked seeds were dismissed. Anil Mehul was almost one of them, barely surviving Peter Sampras 3-6, 6-1, 7-6(3). 18 aces from the American were almost enough to win a tight match, but Mehul escapes. A. Herrera was upended by Zourab Andronikov, the lowest seed in the field. M. Herrera(third-set breaker against Tobia Alberti(ITA, 18th), Federer(straight sets to Max Benitez(ARG, 26th)), and Bourdet(shockingly one-sided loss to Milan Farkas(CZE, 22nd)) all left early. T. Herrera and Benda had surprisingly tough 3-set victories as well. Prakash Mooljee was set to exit at this point, going up against no. 7 Mugur Kinczllers who is a Top-5 player on hardcourts. Incredibly, he pulled off one of the biggest upsets I've ever seen, a 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(9) classic. Kinczllers is every bit as good from the baseline and a much better server as well as more proficient on this surface. This match should not have been close, and is a huge victory for Mooljee.

In the fourth round, a couple of easy wins for Mehul & Girsh completed their first week. Alberti continued a strong tournament by knocking out Pierce Gaskell, the 6th seed. Perry Mockler sent Benda home early in a very tight match that ended in a tiebreaker. Trulsen surprisingly lost in three to T. Herrera as well. Mooljee had another long match, this one against Cestmir Marcek(CZE, 14th). Even at 31, Marcek is the favorite here but not by nearly as much as Kinczllers was. Still, Prakash started strong and blanked the veteran Czech in a first-set tiebreak. He fended off a number of break points in the second set and led 4-1 in another breaker, just three points from the match. And then the wheels came off. He lost six straight points to drop the set, then crumbled to an 0-3 deficit in the third. At that point he regained his focus to break back once, but wouldn't have a chance to get even and loses a match he had nearly won, 6-7(0), 7-6(4), 6-4. A mixture of celebration and disappointment here as it was highly improbable for him to even get to this point, but being three points away from the second week and losing is a hard pill.


Elsewhere ...

Ritwik Dudwadkar had his second tier-4 juniors in Beijing. A harder-than-optimal practice week leading up to it caused fatigue problems, and he lost in the semis in singles, quarterfinals in doubles. He's running into the usual junior problem where often practice matches get played even at more than the 300 fatigue limit. Still got five matches in, which will allow him to take a few weeks off.


Second Week

Mehul got past Alberti in his quarterfinal, but it was a tight one with a long 12-10 tiebreak in the second set. He seems to be doing just enough to advance right now. Gustavo Caratti had his first real resistance against Mockler but made it through in three sets, while Girsh(over T. Herrera) and Iglar(against Marcek) easily advanced.

Caratti had guaranteed himself the #4 ranking, surpassing Benda by making it this far. Mehul won a first-set tiebreak but then basically collapsed, falling 6-7(3), 6-1, 6-2. Overall it's been a disappointing tournament in terms of his level of play and it finally caught up to him. In the second match, Girsh's recent run of success against Iglar continued, 6-3, 7-6(4). That's four straight now, a clear trend. He won a similarly competitive final against Caratti, claiming his 4th Masters Shield without the loss of a set. He probably should have lost the final to be frank -- the Argentine played a more consistent match but had too many lapses.

We'll do it all over again now in Miami.

[Brian Swartz]

Miami Masters

There was a fourth Sri Lankan in the main draw for the first time in any major event. Shyam Senepathy made it through qualifying -- and was summarily dismissed by Spaniard Juan de los Santos 7-6(3), 6-1 in the first round. Still, a very good result for a player well outside the Top 100. Shreya Ujjaval matched up with another rising young player in Blagota Cojanovic, winning convincingly after losing a tight tiebreak in the first set. This was just a prelude to a shocking upset of No. 8 Elias Trulsen, 6-3, 7-5, in the second round. It was a huge win for Ujjaval, by miles the best player he's defeated even if Trulsen is off to a terrible start on the year. Smitala and Gilardino both lost their first matches but nobody else in the Top 20 failed to advance. Prakash Mooljee had a straightforward win over veteran Olav Birkeland in straight sets.

Form continued to hold for the most part in the third round. Anil Mehul was pushed to three sets but dominated the two he won against (26) Roberto Martin. Ujjaval continued to impress, handing out a pair of breadsticks to unseeded Lan-Feng Chen(CHN) to reach his first round of 16 in any big event. Perry Mockler(to Sampras) and Thiago Herrera(to Alberti) were significant upset victims only on paper. Mooljee learned how far he is from being the best in suffering the consequences of an unkind draw in taking just three games from Girish Girsh.

A shocking result for Mehul in the fourth round, as he roundly outplayed Garreth McCuskey yet somehow lost 2-6, 6-3, 7-6(4). For Anil to fall in the first week of a big hardcourt event is nearly unthinkable, as it is for almost any world no. 1. He had a huge edge in pressuring McCuskey on serve(115 points served to 74), won 37% of his return points to just 26% for the American, yet McCuskey converted 2 of 3 break chances and took the tiebreak at the end to pull off a collosal upset that will not soon be forgotten. Ujjaval stunningly kept right on trucking with a straight-sets dismissal of Agustin Herrera, Gustavo Caratti lost to Marcelo Herrera, and Sampras upended Gaskell in a long three-set match. Four upsets in four matches, and that was just the top half of the draw. On the bottom side, Girsh and Iglar continued to progress easily, but Bjorn Benda lost at this early stage for the second straight event, this time to Theodore Bourdet. Alberti nearly knocked out Mugur Kinczllers who barely survived his challenge in three sets.

All of this set up an extremely unconventional second week. The quarterfinals featured just three of the top eight seeds, all of them in the bottom half. In the top, McCuskey became Shreya Ujjaval's latest victim, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3. Rather astonishing to see the 57th-ranked Ujjaval take out a player that #1 Mehul could not. Sampras eliminated M. Herrera in another long three-set win for him. On the other side, Girsh continued to ease through flattening Bourdet, while Iglar narrowly escaped Kinczllers 5-7, 7-6(1), 7-6(3).

The semifinals were quite a pair of matches then. In the first, unseeded Shreya Ujjaval and 24th-seed Peter Sampras. I don't think I've ever seen players ranked this low make a Masters semifinal ... and to have two of them?!? Ujjaval was by this time exhausted -- he of course had not expected to make it nearly this far -- and was finally overwhelmed. Antonin Iglar nearly ended his losing streak against Girsh, but eventually succumbed 6-3, 6-7(4), 7-6(3). It was the only set Girish Girsh lost these past few weeks, as he easily dispatched Sampras to complete the IW/Miami double and his 5th Masters Shield.

Mehul nearly lost his #1 ranking and may yet do so in the months to come, while Ujjaval jumped more than 20 spots in the rankings to the low 30s, and Sampras' final appearance gained him several spots as well. It was a most unexpected turn of events here in Miami, and as attention turns to the clay season there are perhaps more questions than ever.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Anil Mehul(SRI, 30) -- 12,240

Mehul played well enough to win easily in his loss at Miami, but he's definitely looked vulnerable and ... well, old. At the beginning of the year the question was whether Iglar could knock him off his post, but it appears his younger, oft-overlooked compatriot will be the one to do that.

2. Girish Girsh(SRI, 26) -- 12,110

Girsh is off to a fantastic start, and the wins in Indian Wells and Miami have him very close to reaching the top spot.

3. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 29) -- 8,870

It can no longer be seriously argued that Iglar's motivation is fully in the game. He's still more than a match for almost anyone but Girsh has clearly surpassed him.

4. Gustavo Caratti(ARG, 26) -- 7,670

Could have gone another round or two at Miami, but Caratti continues to gradually surge. There seems little doubt that he's poised to dominate the upcoming clay campaign.

5. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 31) -- 7,140

Having now slid out of the Top 4, Benda is now fully in the not-so-graceful decline phase of his career. Just a question of how long he wants to hang on at this point.

6. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 29) -- 4,410

Still 'best of the rest', but probably not even that by the end of the year.

7. Mugur Kinczllers(ITA, 27) -- 3,880

Kinczllers rebounded from the stunning early loss in IW with a good run at Miami. He'll hope for more slow progress during the clay season.

8. Elias Trulsen(SWE, 26) -- 3,800

It's been a really poor year for the Swede, who I thought would be pushing the Top 5 by now. He needs to find his game soon, as he's going to start declining before long.

9. Thiago Herrera(PER, 28) -- 3,440

10. Marcello Herrera(PER, 28) -- 2,975

Mostly the Peruvians are hanging around here at the bottom waiting to be deposed, but Marcello's upset of Caratti in Miami showed that they can still pull a rabbit or two out of the hat.

Russia's top hope Afanasy Bereznity has completely flaked out, or rather his manager has. He hasn't been seen in action for half a year and is tumbling when it was his turn to hit the big time. It's an unfortunate loss as he would have probably been crashing the Top 10 party by now. Nobody else is quite ready to make the leap yet, though the Frenchmen Bourdet + Poilblan along with American McCuskey are creeping closer and closer.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update


Anil Mehul -- 1st singles(unchanged). Four losses already this year, and Mehul appears set to surrender the top spot to Girsh. He can put a bit of a stay on that transition with a good performance at Monte Carlo in a couple of weeks.

Girish Girsh -- 3rd to 2nd singles. A brilliant 26-1 start for Girsh leaves him just shy of finally taking his turn at #1. In case of being victimized by his own success, he'll skip Monte Carlo where he is the defending champion in order to be properly prepared for the rest of the clay season. This will delay his ascencion, but it's coming -- very possibly by the end of the French Open.

Shreya Ujjaval -- 57th to 33rd singles, 125th to 71st doubles. Ujjaval finally made his breakthrough at Miami, and in incredible, dramatic fashion. He will unadvisedly be playing at Monte Carlo next. He's close to breaking into the big time now, and it'll be interesting to see how he handles it.

Prakash Mooljee -- 44th to 36th singles, 304th to 222nd doubles. The demotion to fourth among Sri Lankan players is assuredly a temporary one. He'll continue to bounce back and forth among a very tightly-packed group of players(there are six players within 75 points of Mooljee). There is no questioning the long-term trend as he continues to rise, but he needs to choose his events well and play to his ability the next couple of times out to ensure a seed at the French Open.

Shyam Senepathy -- 166th to 135th singles. Continued gradual progression. He's good enough to hit the Top 100 soon, but beyond that there are many questions.

Ritwik Dudwadkar -- 209th to 243rd juniors. The usual early-season decline in juniors as the rankings resettle, and he's had some difficulty with fatigue issues in the larger tier-4 events. I think he's close to breaking through that barrier though with continued physical development. Dudwadkar is also just beginning now to emphasize his all-court skill more and more in training, having developed his serve to an acceptable, basic level.

Manager Ranking -- 2nd(unchanged), 39.9k to 41.0k points. About 16k behind oprice, a gap that is regularly shrinking now with his players really starting to fall off.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Group 3, Third Round
Sri Lanka vs. Germany, Grass

Monday: A. Mehul d. S. Baune, 6-3, 6-1, 6-4
Tuesday: B. Benda d. G. Girsh, 6-7(3), 7-6(3), 4-6, 7-6(5), 7-5
Wednesday: H. Arendt/J. Backstadt d. S. Ujjaval/P. Mooljee, 6-4, 3-6, 6-2, 6-4
Thursday: A. Mehul d. B. Benda, 7-5, 6-4, 7-5
Friday: G. Girsh d. S. Baune, 6-3, 6-0, 6-3

Sri Lanka defeats Germany, 3-2!!

That ... was more nerve-wracking than I'd bargained for. This was especially true in the Day 2 epic between Girsh and Benda. The German legend has always played better than he ought to be able to on grass -- he's got a good serve of course, but so do lots of players. Girsh had tons of chances to win. Up a minibreak early in fourth-set tiebreak, match points with Benda serving at 4-5 in the fifth, two chances to break back in the final game ... and still lost. 28-19 aces for Benda. Girsh was 1 of 14 on break chances while surrendering just three himself. He was the better player ... but the nearly-32 German pulled another one out of his hat. Girsh also has higher mentality by the way(3.8 to 3.6). Benda had to serve 41 more times. Just one of those days ... days that he's had many of prior to this year. On the other hand ... 371 total points. 372 xp for Girsh. Yeah, I'll take that part.

Thankfully, Mehul had better luck(5 breaks to 2 on 8 chances for each player), providing the key win as we rallied from 2-1 down to take first place in the group. The United States was even more impressive, losing not a single rubber and only four sets during their three group ties. We've got a surprisingly interesting quarterfinal opponent, taking on Sweden on grass. That's Trulsen's best surface, so it could get dicey. If we win that, we'll almost certainly get the USA in a semifinal that would be a de facto final. I like our chances to repeat as world champs but its definitely shaping up to be a rougher journey this time.

Elsewhere ...

Ritwik Dudwadkar ended his latest Tier-4 event in similar fashion. He didn't have any fatigue issues, but lost a pretty close semifinal in singles to a higher-ranked player and also lost at the same stage in doubles.

Coming Up ...

Mehul will play at Monte Carlo in a couple weeks, but we won't see Girsh until Madrid in a month and at least that long off for Dudwadkar as well. Mooljee is a bigger question. He'll have at least two events between now and the French Open but when and where will depend on a lot of variables. Probably a challenger will be first but if the right opportunity in a 250 comes up, he'll enter.

[Umbrella]

In German news, the U16 team advanced to the semi-finals of the JTC after a very tight 3-2 win over The Netherlands. A tough Spain team awaits them. Jakob Heinen has now slipped to #2 U16 in Germany, and lost his singles to #25 Guus Dircx in straight sets, but was able to win in doubles. He's hit a bit of a lull right now. After being ranked in the top 100 earlier in the year, he's slipped to #141.

Gunter Piel is advancing nicely. He got his first ever win, winning in Benicarlo a couple of weeks back. He followed it up with a semi-final finish seen below.

http://i.imgur.com/0eOV7mX.jpg

It was really weird. All Germans, all unseeded, and all 14 years old. The Germans will hopefully start posing a threat the Sri Lanka in a few years. With this performance, Piel should be ranked around #700 when the next rankings come out.

[Brian Swartz]

The Germans will hopefully start posing a threat the Sri Lanka in a few years.

Them be fightin' words! It's ON now!!

Seems likely though. You already have an advantage in getting going in the JTC, where Sri Lanka hasn't participated for a few years.

[Brian Swartz]

Monte Carlo Not-Quite-A-Masters

Stronger field than usual here this year: Girsh was the only Top 10 player who didn't play this year. Might have been a mistake for Iglar -- usually the top 3 or so don't show up due to it resulting in being overplayed for the rest of the clay season. The big storyline was whether or not Benda or anyone could keep Gustavo Caratti from running the table on the red stuff this year(unlikely).

Shreya Ujjaval's tournament was par for the course, a fairly close first-round win and then a straight-sets loss against Tobia Alberti. The Italian 16-seed is probably Top 10 on clay so no crime to lose here. A bad first set, but he gave him a tough second which ended in a close tiebreak. Anil Mehul surprisingly went out to Spaniard Roberto Martin, 6-4, 5-7, 6-3. Not a good performance from Mehul. He wasn't expected to win but he was expected to take at least a couple of matches. After making the final of RG last year, he certainly didn't look the part in this case. Elias Trulsen, never a big threat on this surface, was the only other seed to lose at this stage.

There was basically nothing worth reporting in the third round as all those who should have won, did and most of them pretty easily. Things heated up quite a bit in the quarters though. Kinczllers dismissed M. Herrera in an excellent battle, prevailing 7-5 in the third; Benda needed a third-set breaker to battle past T. Herrera, though he skunked the Peruvian no. 1 with seven straight points in it; Alberti knocked out Iglar in straights after a tight first-set breaker; and Caratti had a relatively easy time of things over Marcek.

In the semifinals, Benda and Caratti both took care of business. Still looks like they are the best two in the world but it's no longer close as the Argentine looks superior and more consistent. That was validated as he triumphed 6-4, 6-4 in the final to get his best time of year started on the right foot. This is actually Gustavo's first Masters Shield, though I expect there will be more coming in the next month. It also solidified his hold on the #4 spot in the rankings, and though it was unthinkable not that long ago, if Iglar continues to struggle to an unaccountable degree he could pass him for the #3 spot by summer.


Coming Up ...

Two weeks off before Madrid. Mehul and Mooljee with both be in action next week, the others have some time off but there will be some results to report at that time.

[Brian Swartz]

May

The week after Monte Carlo there were a couple of events for my players. First up, Anil Mehul was in action at the Bucharest 500. He played much better this week after the MC debacle, cruising to the final where he controlled the match against ninth-ranked Thiago Herrera. The scoreline was 7-6(2), 7-6(3), but only that close due to Mehul blowing 8 of 9 break opportunities. This sets him up reasonably for the rest of the clay season, and gives him a little more breathing room in the rankings ahead of Girsh.

Also in action was Prakash Mooljee who can't quite seem to escape challengers completely. At a tier-2 event in Leon, Mexico(hardcourt), he expected Blagota Cojanovic to be the only real competition. Even that didn't pan out, as Mooljee handed him a pair of breadsticks in the final. This moves him up to 31st, equaling his career high.


Coming Up ...

The Madrid Masters is next week, Rome the week after that. Mooljee will be off both weeks for training but the other three will be active. Girsh, presently almost 1700 pts. back of Mehul in the rankings, will be looking to get close enough to give himself a chance at overtaking him when Roland Garros and Wimbledon roll around.

[Brian Swartz]

Madrid Masters

Shreya Ujjaval stopped by for a match. That's selling him a bit short. Going up against ninth-ranked Thiago Herrera, arguably a top-5 player on the dirt, he stole a set before losing 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-3. Can't blame that performance -- only thing I blame is the decision for him to play here in the first place. This sort of one-and-done thing is why I wouldn't do it.

In the second round, the top unseeded player, Agustin Herrera(Peru's third-best and currently #17) sent Gaskell packing in straight sets. At the time it looked just another sign of the top American's gradual decline, but we'd hear more from Agustin later on ... Elias Trulsen bowed out in the third, narrowly to unseeded John Condon, a name not worth mentioning anymore the rest of the year but on clay he has his moments. A. Herrera took down another seed in McCuskey as well.

As usual, things started to really get interesting in the quarters. Mehul outlasted Thiago Herrera 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, and Caratti shockingly dropped a set to Condon before blasting him aside 4-6, 6-2, 6-1. The bottom half was competitive as well, with Girish Girsh coming up a bit short against Benda 7-5, 7-6(0), and Agustin Herrera eliminating Antonin Iglar, 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-4. Already a career-making tournament for him.

The semifinals set up then as a prelude to yet another Caratti-Benda duel on clay. Gustavo held up his end by routinely dispatching Mehul, but the German fell to Herrera just as easily(6-3, 6-3 in each match). That set up the first unseeded Masters finalist I can ever recall. Agustin couldn't stop the athletic Argentine who won yet another routine straight-set win and has done nothing here to dispel the notion that he is ready to be nearly untouchable on this surface. Herrera is still the man of the hour despite the defeat however, rising from 17th to 10th with his run here. It will be interesting to see if this is the start of a trend for him -- at 25 years old, he has some time to make his mark for certain. It was a good tournament for Mehul and Girsh as well -- losing to Caratti and Benda is nothing to be ashamed of.


Elsewhere ...

Ritwik Dudwadkar proved my prediction that he's close to turning the tier-4 corner correct. Despite being quite exhausted by the end of it, he made the doubles final in Calcutta(clay) and took his first singles title at this level despite a couple of fairly close matches. Getting nine matches in a single week is huge for him, and he'll have next week completely off followed by a full month of training before he enters another tournament.

[Brian Swartz]

Rome Masters

One and done again for Shreya Ujjaval, another fairly unkind draw as he lost in straight sets to Marcelo Herrera. Mockler bowed out in the first round and several other seeds nearly did -- Marcek, McCuskey, Trulsen, and Poilblan all narrowly avoided early exits. There were more close matches in the second round but once again the favorites moved on. Benda, Bourdet, Poilblan, McCuskey, and Gaskell all had close calls. None more so than Girish Girsh, who was fortunate not to be M. Herrera's second Sri Lankan victim in as many rounds, just escaping 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(4). Both players broke twice, but Girsh only had two chances while the Peruvian had seven. Objectively, he probably should have lost this one.

Last week's darling Agustin Herrera met his end in the third round in a surprisingly one-sided loss to Kinczllers. No match at this stage went the distance, and the lone upset was Cestmir Marcek over Thiago Herrera. In the quarterfinals, Anil Mehul lost what was an even matchup going in against Mugur Kinczllers, 6-4, 6-4. He was pretty badly outplayed here, and this won't go down as one of his better weeks. Everything was straightforward elsewhere, and the rest of the draw was happy to see Caratti knock out Benda so that they wouldn't have to deal with him.

Both semifinals were quite close. Antonin Iglar edged Kinczllers 6-4 in the third, while Girsh shocked Gustavo Caratti in a comeback 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 win! The Argentine was a bit tired by this point which was a factor, but it was still stunning given that he'd won the last three big tournaments on clay. The match was as even as even can be, but Girsh was bigger in the key moments as he had been in his first match of the week, and it was just enough. Unfortunately that didn't carry through to the final, where he lost 7-6(6), 7-5 to Iglar. Serving for the second set at 5-3, Girsh fell apart in a match where he was slightly favored even without considering that he'd won five straight against the Czech legend. It's Iglar's first Masters title in nearly a year, and if the sleeping giant is beginning to awake it could really complicate the rest of the year.

Coming Up ...

Mooljee will be playing his first 250-level event next week, seeking to ensure himself a seed at Roland Garros. After his loss here, Caratti does not seem like such a sure favorite anymore, and Iglar has strengthened his grip on the #3 spot considerably. Lots of questioned to be answered when the year's second Slam rolls around in a couple of weeks.

[Brian Swartz]

Power Horse Cup

Prakash Mooljee headed to Dusseldorf, Germany for his first-ever 250 event. Fortuitiously and unusually, most of the better players in action this week packed the Nice tournament. Mooljee was seeded 2nd here, and would have been no higher than 6th there. 21st-ranked Xavier Caminha was the top seed, but a couple of clay specialists in the 3rd and 4th spots were actually the bigger threats it appeared. This was one of those weeks where things played out pretty much exactly as anticipated. All of the top four made it to the semifinals with ease. Those who have followed Prakash's career closely will recognize his opponent at that stage, Djurdje Moicevic. Moicevic isn't as strong a player as Mooljee but he excels at clay and is playing in front of home fans. It wasn't quite enough, and Mooljee won 6-3, 7-6(4), his second win in their three meetings over the past year and a half. 37th-ranked 3-seed Hugo Deallavadale of France edged Caminha in three sets to become the final hurdle. Another clay specialist, he was arguably the favorite. It was a bad serving day for Prakash, but he still did what he does more often than not, finding a way after a poor first set to rally for a 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 victory by virtue of superior baseline consistency.

This is a big win for Mooljee, and should finally and decisively put his challenger days behind him. He'll be at a career-best of roughly 27th or so next week, easily in the seeded positions for Roland Garros, and the rest of the year will be about establishing himself as well as he can in the elite ranks of the sport by replacing his challenger results with bigger tournaments. He's almost six months younger than Girsh was when taking his first 250, and nearly three years younger than Mehul managed it. Some of it was luck with the number of players electing to play in France instead, but whatever it was he'll take it. Onward and upward to greater things.


Coming Up ...

It'll be an RG debut for Mooljee, who'll turn 22 shortly after the tournament completes. Girsh has a small(very) chance to seize the #1 ranking from Mehul here, but he'd have to win the title and Anil would have to lose in the quarterfinals or earlier. The most likely scenario is that Girsh's ascencion will wait until at least after Wimbledon. Caratti is still the favorite of course, and many eyes will be on Iglar's performance, looking to see if he's ready to bounce back into the form of which he is capable.

Dudwadkar will be off be a few more weeks training.

[Brian Swartz]

ROLAND GARROS

Opening Rounds

Shyam Senepathy didn't have to qualify to make the draw here. That might have actually been a bad thing, but it is a first as it made five Sri Lankans in the main draw. Senepathy won a total of one game against Thiago Herrera in the first round, and that was that. Things were better elsewhere, as the other four players all won their first matches. Mehul's match, against Spaniard Juan de los Santos, was a testy one as he was unexpectedly pushed to four sets before getting through. There were several entertaining five-set matches, but none involving anyone expected to be around long. All of the seeds made it through except for disintegrating American Radek Smitala.

Mehul dropped just two games in the second round, a much sharper performance. Shreya Ujjaval had a very fine win, a straight-sets elimination of (22) Robert Martin(ESP). Martin is a quality clay-court player, so this is another sign that Ujjaval is progressing upward. McCuskey and Khasan Zakirov needed five sets to advance, while Philip Carter(24th, USA) won a pair of tiebreaks against Sava Cirakovic but still lost.

Mehul played against a player I briefly managed many moons ago, 32-year-old Argentine Anton Grimaldo, in the third round. Grimaldo had gone five sets in each of his two wins so far, but was easily dismissed here. Ujjaval was on the receiving end of disappointment in a real classic, just getting edged out by Cestmir Marcek, 7-6(2), 3-6, 3-6, 6-3, 7-5. It's Ujjaval's fifth trip to the third round of a Slam, but he's still winless on those occasions. Three of the opportunities have come in the past year. Portugal's Xavier Caminha is gradually getting more notice, and the world no. 20 dumped Bourdet in four sets to improve his standing. Meanwhile, Prakash Mooljee had a rough go of it against Caratti, taking just a half-dozen games. Obviously a match nobody expected him to win, but a bagel in the final set wasn't what I was looking for. McCuskey survived another tough one, and perhaps the best match of the round was Marcelo Herrera taking out 7th-ranked Mugur Kinczllers in four.

Mehul got more than he bargained for in the 32-year-old Marcek in his final match of the first week. Twice he had to rally from a set down to survive 3-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3. Should have been a little easier, but a game effort by the veteran Czech. Not a whole lot of surprises elsewhere. The Peruvian Herreras are doing as well as they ever have, taking out Gaskell and Trulsen in the fourth round, but neither of those were really surprises. Girsh, Iglar, Caratti, etc. all continue to easily progress. They haven't faced their real challenges yet.


Second Week

All four of the quarterfinal matches were interesting as things really started to heat up. Anil Mehul had a terrible first set, then controlled three straight tiebreaks to knock out Thiago Herrera. A hideous display on break points(4 of 18 vs. 6 of 9 for Thiago) threatened to ruin an otherwhise excellent match for him. Gustavo Caratti looked to be in cruise control, then lost a 2-set lead before getting past Benda in five. Bad luck for Bjorn to face him this early. Girsh dropped a first-set breaker to Agustin Herrera but was pretty much in control after that to advance in four, and Iglar came from a set down twice to derail Marcelo Herrera's bid for yet another upset, 5-7, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2.

After all that, top four seeds made it to the semifinals. Caratti took out Mehul in four sets, in a match that was never really in doubt. More surprising was the second match, also going four sets, with Iglar controlling the whole thing and really dominating Girsh, dropping just one long tiebreak.

The final provided yet more evidence that Antonin Iglar is back on his game. Gustavo Caratti claimed his second RG crown in a row, but he really had to earn it. This one went the distance, with Caratti prevailing 7-5, 6-7(4), 5-7, 6-4, 6-2. Iglar fired 20 aces, while stifling Caratti's serve(5 aces, 10 double faults). It wasn't enough though, and especially at the end the Argentine's superiority was fairly clear. Still a heck of a match though.

Mehul's lead shrinks a bit but he's still well in place as the #1, while Iglar has nearly closed the gap on Girsh. As the tour looks ahead to Wimbledon, less than 2000 points separate the top three.


Coming Up ...

Mehul and Girsh will have the next couple of weeks off, but Mooljee and Dudwadkar will be in action before Wimbledon. Anil will be going for what would be a record-setting 5th straight championship there, and if he fails the top ranking will be in serious jeopardy if not a memory.

[Brian Swartz]

UNICEF Open(Netherlands, 250)

Prakash Mooljee was the fourth seed here for his second 250-level tournament in a month. Grass is one of his weakest surfaces, so really any points he picked up here would be a bonus. I wasn't going to be too disappointed as long as he at least got a few matches in and made the quarterfinals. As it ended up, he got to the semis easily where he faced Mugur Kinczllers. The 7th-ranked Italian was the top seed, and Mooljee had edged him a big upset, probably his biggest career victory a few months back at Indian Wells. He did well to nearly do it again, falling 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 despite the fact the Kinczllers has a significantly better serve. Another sign that Mooljee can hang with all but the very best, and a semifinal appearance here is a solid result, and serves the purpose of sharpening his game ahead of Wimbledon. A loss in the first qualifying round for doubles is par for the course.


Elsewhere ...

Ritwik Dudwadkar suffered a first-round doubles exit the same week at tier-4 Nonthaburi. Seeded second, he crushed all comers en route to the final(including Suksma, who took only three games from him in the semi). The top seed was a very recognizable foe, Florentino Suarez, who has beaten him before. Not this time -- Dudwakar won 6-3, 6-4, taking his second tier-4 title.


Coming Up ...

Dudwadkar is off while the other three head to Wimbledon. Aside from Mehul's quest for history, the most interesting aspect are the scenarios for the #1 ranking. Anil will retain it if he's able to defend his title again. Girsh can take the top spot for the first time by just making it a round further than Mehul, while Iglar would need to win the title and get some help in order to ascend back to the top spot. Any of the trio is very capable of winning, and it's unlikely that anyone else can get past them. The results here will shape how the Race looks afterwards, and set the stage for the second half of the season with the Olympics coming up a month later. It should be a fascinating tournament ...

[Brian Swartz]

2046 Wimbledon

Opening Rounds

Shyam Senepathy had a golden opportunity for his first slam win. He was matched with the horribly-out-of-practice Smitala, and won the first two sets only to lose 3-6, 2-6, 7-6(1), 7-6(3), 6-4. Sigh. It was a good start for the other four Sri Lankans though as all won in straight sets, and the seeds were perfect overall in the first round as well. In the next round, it was mostly more of the same. 30 of 32 seeds advanced. Khasan Zakirov dropped a five-setter to Italian Vito Brandini, and Shreya Ujjaval caused the second loss, against 31st-seed Blagota Cojanovic. That one also went the distance, with Ujjaval falling behind a set twice but also taking a couple of easy sets against the more inconsistent Cojanovic.

An unkind draw for the second straight Slam for Prakash Mooljee, who met up with Mehul in the third round. Not a good day for Anil on the break points which allowed it to stay pretty close for most of it, but the four-time defending champ prevailed 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 6-2. Ujjaval made it six third-round defeats in six chances, including the second year in a row here, in another five-setter, narrowly falling to outstanding grass-courter Elias Trulsen, 7-5 in the final set. Bjorn Benda met an early demise in a ridiculously tight match with Marcelo Herrera in which the first four sets all went to tiebreaks. A couple of other lower-seed upsets were also notable, with Sava Cirakovic knocking out Bourdet and the perennial low-seed Zourab Andronikov ending Marcek's tournament here.

Mehul was tested again in the fourth round, taking all three sets though all were close against Federer. Trulsen knocked out Caratti in a trio of tiebreaks, and Agustin Herrera had his second straight marathon match, knocking out countryman Marcelo 11-9 in the 5th. Agustin had gone to 10-8 in the last round, bringing newfound meaning to the term 'survive and advance'. The bottom half of the draw proceeded to form, with Girsh and Iglar continuing to move on fairly easily and without drama.


Second Week

Back again for his 16th Slam quarterfinal was Pierce Gaskell. Anil Mehul won the first two sets in tiebreaks, but then a funny thing happened. He started to tire, and the American's serve started to control the match more. Overall, Gaskell blasted 26 aces to Mehul's 11, mounting a most improbable comeback upset to stop the chase for history right here, 6-7(4), 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-3, 6-4. Mehul was still the better player and was quite upset and frustrated over converting just 1 of 10 break points, while Gaskell was 4 of 8. Anil should have won this match, but the trend towards failing in his break chances has definitely accelerated as his body slows down. This is just Gaskell's third win in 21 matches, but his second this year ...

Elsewhere, Trulsen stopped Agustin Herrera in what was the Peruvian's third straight five-set match. Perhaps all the long matches finally caught up to him, as the Swede was able to rally from a set down and avoid the upset. More straight-set success for Girsh(over Thiago Herrera) and Iglar(against Mugur Kinczllers) continued that pair on their collision course, and also guaranteed Girsh of the #1 ranking to follow the tournament. It's been a long time coming, but he's finally reached the pinnacle!

It was very much a JV semifinal in the top half, as all eyes were on the #2 and #3 in the world in the bottom half. The first slam semi for Gaskell against Elias Trulsen, and the Swede prevailed in three close stanzas to make the final. Despite being out-aced 16-10, Girish Girsh was a little more effective on return and saved 4 of 5 break opportunities against his serve to snap a two-match losing streak to surging Antonin Iglar, 6-4, 7-6(5), 6-4.

The final then pitted probably the world's foremost grass-court specialist in Trulsen, against it's overall most skilled player in Girsh. Neither had won a Slam before -- Trulsen had not even been close, making one quarterfinal and one semi previously. Girsh had been runner-up twice before, including this year's Australian Open. He would not suffer that fate today, with a solid 6-3, 6-3, 7-5 victory! I thought he had a chance coming in, but I definitely didn't expect him to take the title here without so much as dropping a set. A fitting coronation to the world's new top-ranked player, and the most prestigious Slam championship remains in Sri Lanka hands.

As for Mehul, the writing's been on the wall for months now but a clear changing of the guard if ever there was one. He's had a damn fine run, but I don't see him coming back from the first half of this year now that he's on the far side of 30 and finding himself more and more vulnerable to lower-ranked players.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Girish Girsh(SRI, 27) -- 12,430

Girsh made me wonder if he would ever get here at times, and it took a bit longer than expected but he's now the king of the hill. It appears the next year or so his main challenge will be fending off Iglar, but he made a good statement in that regard with his victory over the Czech legend in the Wimbledon semis.

2. Anil Mehul(SRI, 30) -- 10,810

The deposed four-time Wimbledon champ is still a major force on the tour, but other than the Australian Open at the start of the year he has not been able to exert his will on matches the way he used to. His final decline appears to be here at long last.

3. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 29) -- 9,890

To mount a serious challenge to Girsh for the top spot, Iglar will need to have one of his patented hard-court sweeps in the second half of the year. I think he's still capable of it.

4. Gustavo Caratti(ARG, 26) -- 8,290

Long-term, Caratti is the only credible challenger to Girsh's throne as a slightly younger and much more athletic talent. Time will tell whether he can make that happen or not.

5. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 32) -- 5,150

Reduced to 'best of the rest', Benda won't even be that by the end of the year most likely. No matter how many times it happens, it's sad to see a former great fade off into the sunset.

6. Mugur Kinczllers(ITA, 27) -- 4,715

A little past his best play, but Kinczllers still has plenty to give.

7. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 30) -- 4,630

Now 1-15 in Slam quarterfinals, Gaskell earned a rather unlikely historical footnote for himself in the Mehul upset. He also avoids the ignominy of a perfect record of failure in those situations, one he had built over several years.

8. Elias Trulsen(SWE, 27) -- 4,020

Trulsen's run to the Wimby final has largely salvaged what was previously an extremely disappointing year. He's still young enough to move up the ladder some if he can use this as a springboard to better play.

9. Thiago Herrera(PER, 28) -- 3,540

10. Agustin Herrera(PER, 26) -- 3,035

His pair of marathon 5-setters made Agustin the latest in a series of yo-yo players to reach the last spot here.

There are seven players within less than 600 points of the 10th position, so the constant changing is expected to continue. It's unsure whether any of them might have the ability to stay up on the first page.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update


Anil Mehul -- 1st to 2nd singles. The decline this year is punctuated by the fact that Mehul has now lost nine matches, the same amount he lost all season in both years that he finished #1. Assuming that he doesn't somehow pull a rabbit out of his hat, he has 7 Grand Slams(tied for 6th all-time with a ton of players), 8 Masters Shields(10th place has 11), 3 World Tour Finals(tied for 4th), and spent 60 weeks as the world's #1(10th is Alastra at 89 weeks). A mix of results there, but overall enough to make him worthy of an honorable mention when considering the best players in tennis's storied history.

For now, he'll keep doing whatever he can to maintain his standing. It's hard to see him dropping out of the Top 4 at worst anytime soon. Long-term though, I'll know it's time for the next phase of his career when Mooljee surpasses him in the singles rankings, which will probably be at least two years from now. At that point, Mehul will switch to a doubles focus and preparing for training duty after he retires. He still has a very significant role to play as an elite singles player right now, he's just done being the best.


Girish Girsh -- 2nd to 1st singles. Having ascended to the mountaintop with a strong 45-5 record and his first Slam title, it is Girsh's time. His attention now turns to the task of strengthening his grip and staying here as long as he can. Matches against Iglar and Caratti will be crucial going forward.


Prakash Mooljee -- 36th to 25th singles, 222nd to 249th doubles. It hasn't been a good pairs year for Mooljee who is just 1-5 in such matches, but he has made the jump to elite status permanently now. He's now got a mix of professional and challenger events in his ranking. That transition will continue and he'll move up a few spots, but there's a huge gap between the players from 10th-17th and those 20th and below, several hundred points. It's unlikely he can bridge that gap this year -- he'll probably end up around 20th and try to keep chipping away at it. There will be some interesting scheduling choices this year.


Shreya Ujjaval -- 33rd to 35th singles, 71st to 79 doubles. Ujjaval's unblemished record of failure at the third round of Slams keeps him hanging around just outside the break into the big-time.


Shyam Senepathy -- 135th to 132nd singles. Could have moved up some had he not collapsed against Smitala at Wimbledon -- that probably cost him about a dozen spots or so. Senepathy is inconsistent and a mid-level challenger player right now.


Ritwik Dudwadkar -- 243rd to 210th juniors. Dudwadkar pretty much reversed the slippage from the beginning of the year, and is right back where he was to start it. He'll need to win a couple more Tier-4s, maybe three, before moving up in competition. That will take much of the rest of the year, but he's starting to win more consistently at this level now so definitely by the end of the season if not before he should be ready to take the next jump up.


Manager Ranking -- 2nd(unchanged), 41k to 42.1 k points. Continued gradual progress. I've now got the third-highest points total ever recorded in this world, but am still well back of the top spot.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the World Tour Finals

It's time once again to see who is doing work in the first half of the year, and who needs to step it up in order to qualify for the Tour Finals.

In

Girish Girsh -- 7500
Gustavo Caratti -- 6390
Anil Mehul -- 5280

Girsh definitely has the inside track on staying on top through the end of the year. It'll be interesting to see whether Caratti can come close to maintaning his pace now that the clay season is done.


Probable

Antonin Iglar -- 5770
Pierce Gaskell -- 3430

Iglar's all but there, just needs one more decent event to assure himself a spot. Gaskell has the edge at making it back, but it's far from certain in his case.


Contenders

Bjorn Benda -- 2830
Thiago Herrera -- 2730
Mugur Kinczzlers -- 2640
---------------------------
Elias Trulsen -- 2640


Much can change, but if it stays this tight we could be in for a very dramatic finish. Kinczllers and Trulsen are dead-locked for the last spot. I predict that either Benda or Herrera, probably Herrera, will drop far enough to miss the field but there's a number of ways that this could go.


Long Shots

Agustin Herrera -- 2235
Theodore Bourdet -- 1945
Davide Poilblan -- 1920
Roger Federer -- 1870
Marcelo Herrera -- 1860
Tobia Alberti -- 1815
Garreth McCuskey -- 1785
Cestmir Marcek -- 1680

Only Agustin Herrera appears to be any threat to qualify here, and it's not likely even for him. The rest are in the pretender category, expected to mostly disappear by the USO until they demonstrate otherwhise. It's a veritable horde of 'not quite good enough', most of them either stagnant or declining. Mooljee, by the way, is one of the better players who didn't make this list. He'll probably be on it next year.

[Umbrella]

Congrats on Wimbledon.

Heinen has stalled. JG4 tournaments are too easy for him, but he doesn't do well in JG3. He ended up slipping out of the top 3 for Germany's U16, and didn't get to participate in the U16 JTC finals. It is a little bittersweet, as Germany won, but no credit for Heinen, even though he participated in every event except the final.

Piel is continuing to impress. He won his second consecutive singles and doubles tournament. I'm trying to decide if it is time to move him up to JG4.

[Brian Swartz]

JG4 to JG3 is probably the toughest junior transition, aside from getting into the Top 10. My recommendation for Heinen is probably to play JG4s which will get you lots of practice weeks in between, and play JG3s only in weeks where there are a lot of big events(to dilute the top players available for them).

Piel is close -- if it was me I'd play a couple more JG5s first and get his ranking up a bit. He's got enough endurance for the jump though.

[Brian Swartz]

August

Not a whole lot happened the month after Wimbledon, but there's a packed stretch coming up starting with the Olympics. Ritwik Dudwadkar had another tier-4 in Victoria Falls. He made the semis in doubles, and lost in the final of the singles to hometown favorite Esrom Hoaton(ZAF, 71st). Hoaton is horribly overplayed and almost two years older, but basically shouldn't be playing tournaments this small. No disgrace in a 6-3, 6-4 defeat, but it did mean that Dudwadkar basically was just treading water with this result. Another few weeks off for him, while the rest are about to get back at it.

[Brian Swartz]

2046 Olympics - Preview
Changchun, China - Hardcourt

The Olympics are one of the few remaining holes in my 'resume'. I make a lot bigger deal out of them than most managers. From an 'objective strategy' point of view, they make the longest stretch of tournament play in the year even longer, and aren't really worth it(750 pts, to the winner, less than a Masters). Even more bizarrely, doubles doesn't garner a single ranking point!?!? Nonetheless, my primary goal has always been to take Sri Lanka to the top of the world stage. In keeping with that, the Olympics are the greatest and rarest of prizes, since it comes along once every four years; the WTC is here every year. It's important enough for me to make a rare departure from the usual obsession over making the objectively best scheduling choice.

Seems useful here to recap how things have gone in recent Olympiads:

** 2034 -- No Sri Lankans were in the field, and indeed none had yet participated, ever, to this date. This was the 12th Olympics, 44 years into the tour. It is notable because of how close it came to making history. Every Olympics up to this one had been won by a different player -- to win twice is something that is extravagantly difficult, perhaps impossible. If someone is at their peak for one Olympics, they'll be into their 30s for the next one. The only way there is any chance is for their career be timed well, so that they are before their prime for one and a little after it for the second. Of course they'd also have to be absurdly dominant to be good enough to win a big event like this during both of those phases of their career.

In '34, Eric Gorritepe came far closer than anyone ever has to getting a second gold medal here. He had won in '30, and made the championship match against second-seeded Gael Graff(ARG). Graff won the first two sets, but Gorritepe rallied to force a 5th ... narrowly losing 8-6 in the final set. As close as you come without winning, but the history books here(and in every other world I've looked at) still have nobody with two Olympic titles.

** 2038 -- At 22, Anil Mehul was the first-ever Sri Lankan to appear in the Olympic tournament. That in itself was a huge accomplishment, and he would do more than show up. He knocked off Gaskell in the first round in one of their first matches, then beat Antuofermo in a tight second-rounder to reach the third round where he lost to 11-seed Strahinja Kecic.

** 2042 -- Last time out, Mehul was the top seed but lost to Julian Hammerstein, who had just recently switched to a doubles career and was still a major force, in the semifinals. He did snatch the bronze by beating Federer in the 3rd-place match, but it was still a considerable disappointment.

** 2046 -- Iglar is once again skipping the Olympics, so Girsh and Mehul are the top-seeded players. Hammerstein is entering once again but his doubles skills have long been complete, and he's not the force from the back of the court that he once was. Italian Mugur Kinczllers is probably the biggest threat, but Girsh is the favorite here by a considerable distance.

[Brian Swartz]

Olympic Results

So with all that in mind, here's how it played out. Shreya Ujjaval got one victory in, but was blasted by Girsh in the second round. He did form with Mooljee in a surprisingly effective doubles run, upsetting the 7th-seeded Argentinians to reach the quarterfinals. The 3rd-seeded Mexicans were far too strong though, allowing just three games.

Prakash Mooljee was seeded 15th, surprisingly, as many of those who had little to no chance for a medal opted for easy points in the Washington 500 or other events this week. Mooljee had a couple of easy wins, and then a heck of a match against Gustavo Caratti in the third round. After losing the first set, he rallied for a 3-6, 7-6(5), 8-6 victory - there are no final-set tiebreaks here. Gaskell was able to stop him 6-4, 7-5 in the quarterfinals, but it was still a fine showing.

Anil Mehul had a bit of a third-round test from Theodore Bourdet, but got through it in straight sets. That put him up against Hammerstein again ... and he stumbled again, 6-1, 7-6(5). In 14 career meetings, he's now lost nine including the past three. It may very well be mental at this stage. The Austrian is a hard-court focused player and still very strong, but doesn't have the baseline game to make one think he'd still be better.

Girsh made it to the medal round without dropping a set. Condon and then Trulsen made things a little bit interesting, but not overly so. Gaskell was his opponent, and the American had himself one heck of a tournament. Quite probably he should have won this match, but he failed at all four break chances and Girsh took a 7-6(3), 6-4 win that could very easily have gone sideways. Hammerstein and Kinczllers, objectively the two biggest threats, met in the second match. A crushing performance by Kinczllers permitted Julian just four games, ending his bid for repeat Olympic titles.

In the final, Girsh had already guaranteed Sri Lanka of it's best medal, and needed only to take his sixth straight against the Italian challenger to win the gold. It was in doubt early as he dropped a tiebreak to start things off. Both players served well, with 39 combined aces against only 3 double faults, but Girsh had the better of it on the return overall. He stamped Sri Lanka's place in history with a 6-7(3), 6-4, 7-6(3), 6-3 win, consistently doing just a little better in the most contested games, and adds his name to the list, now 15 players long, of those who have been Olympic champions.


Coming Up ..

A brutal stretch has only just begun. Counting the Olympic week, it will cover six tournament weeks out of seven, up through the WTC QF which follow the USO. That will only be for the Girsh & Mehul, as after considerable pondering, I've decided Mooljee will be better off taking the masters weeks to practice.

[Brian Swartz]

Canada Masters

Only Girsh and Mehul participated here, with the rest of Sri Lanka's contingent electing to skip this event. There is one player worth noting though that Umbrella is familiar with I think. Canadian Luc Janin, the most dominant junior the sport has ever seen, was a wild card and won his first-round match against a qualifier. About a year ago, Janin set the record for youngest challenger titlist at 18 years 29 weeks. He is presently just over 19 and a half, and ranked 85th in the world. He's got very good athleticism, good though not great endurance, and a solid balance in his technical abilities. I'll definitely be watching his progress closely - well handled, he could be a monster for a while. He's almost three years younger than Mooljee, and three years older than Dudwadkar, so I can at least be thankful his career arc won't directly coincide with my players :). I can't think of another notable Canadian in this world.

At any rate, the first round had a pair of surprises with middling seeds Federer and Agustin Herrera losing in third-set tiebreaks to Fabricio Gilardino and Xavier Caminha. The second round went mostly to form, with Janin bowing out to Benda, 2 & 2. Antonin Iglar was pushed far more than expected by the occasionally relevant Mockler, but prevailed in three sets, and Girsh had to go the distance against similarly inconsistent Zourab Andronikov. Bjorn Benda headed to the exits early in the third round, bounced 6-2, 7-5 courtesy of Thiago Herrera, but form held everywhere else.

Nobody lower than ninth then made the quarterfinals, another case of the cream rising to the top. Girsh easily bounced Kinczllers, who didn't give as much resistance as he had last week in China, Gustavo Caratti prevailed over Herrera in three, Mehul lost a tiebreak before ralling against Trulsen, and Iglar annihilated Gaskell. That left the top four seeds for the semifinals. Yawn :P. Girsh had another close one against Caratti, a match he could have lost but did better on the break chances for a 6-4, 7-6(5) win. The Argentine has shown himself to be increasingly dangerous recently. Anil Mehul took the first set against Iglar but couldn't hold it, falling 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-3. A solid tournament for him at this stage to be sure.

Iglar had been pushed to three sets twice this tournament already, but he was ready for the final and dusted Girsh 7-5, 6-2 for his 29th Masters Shield. The Czech legend will actually lose ground in the rankings here as he defends his lone Masters from last year while Girsh had gone out in the semis the previous season, but more important is that he continues to show himself a recovering threat. Antonin has taken three out of the last four matchups, and appears to be set up well to make up significant ground this summer and fall.

Coming Up ...

We'll do it all over again next week in Cincinatti. This time though the field will be deeper, as more players elect to play instead of taking the week for practice. Mooljee and Ujjaval will be among the additional participants. This is a rare departure for me from the 'only play where you're seeded' mantra, but Mooljee would have virtually no Top 50 competition for practice which would make it a terrible week for him. Lesser of two evils as it were, and both of the lower-ranked Sri Lankans are very dangerous floaters.

[Brian Swartz]

Cincinatti Masters

Shreya Ujjaval drew Janin, who I mentioned last time, in the first round. He roundly trounced the fast-rising Canadian, who nonetheless made it through qualifying against much more experienced and higher-ranking players. Ujjaval then got blasted himself against Benda, and that was that. As for Prakash Mooljee, he had an interesting first-round encounter with 16-seed Marcelo Herrera, who he had impressively straight-setted in the Australian Open to start this year. On the one hand it was unlucky to get a seed right away, on the other if he won it was basically a ticket to the third round before he'd have to deal with another one. This ended up being the best match, by far, of the first round. I had Mooljee as a slight-to-modest favorite here. He's better on hardcourts and pretty much equal otherwhise, and should be able to beat the clay-focused Herrera far more often than not. It could have gone either way, but Peru's no. 3 bounced him 7-6(5), 5-7, 6-4. One and done for Mooljee this week meant a lot of training sessions with Anil Manohar, but it still was probably not much worse than what would have been a terrible training week.

Elsewhere in the first round, Garreth McCuskey narrowly escaped Cojanovic 7-5 in the third; Blagota is another of the players in Mooljee's class making their presence felt more consistently. Thiago Herrera was bounced in three by Sampras, and Marcek narrowly escaped another rising player, Moicevic. The second round was mostly routine, with a couple exceptions. American Fabricio Gilardino sent Poilban packing, and Elias Trulsen and Sava Cirakovic, another battle of the established player against the youngster, stole the show with a three-tiebreak affair. Unfortunately Cirakovic was skunked in the decisive breaker, but until then he played very tough.

The third round saw Bjorn Benda tumble out in a matchup of the world's best 32-year-olds against Cestmir Marcek. The Czech no. 2 has looked good the last few weeks, mounting something of a mini-renaissance to stay in the cluster of players just outside the Top 10. Meanwhile, Gilardino struck again, making Anil Mehul his next victim 6-3, 7-5. I was rather stunned by this, even with all the upsets Mehul has endured this year. He was just flat-out outplayed by an unseeded player across the board, unlike some of his earlier losses in which he arguably should have won. And he was in perfect condition. No excuses here, he just got his hat handed to him early on.

Six of the top eight made the quarters, with unseeded Gilardino and #14 Marcek looking to crash the party. Girish Girsh had his first competitive match, taking out Kinczllers 7-5, 6-4 though it wasn't really that close. Three straight weeks he's beaten the Italian. Gustavo Caratti went the distance with Trulsen to win a close one, and the bottom side of the bracket matched up players from a couple of tennis's greatest nations. The Americans were Gaskell and Gilardino, where experience was served in an opening-set bagel en route to a straight-sets win. The Czech Republic's top two met in the last match, and Marcek nearly upended the surging Antonin Iglar before falling, 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-5. It was rather astonishing how close that one was.

In contrast to their recent matches, despite feeling the fatigue, Girsh annihilated Caratti, losing only three games in the first semi. Iglar was given more of a challenge by Gaskell in a fine run for him, but also won in straight sets. That set up an identical final to last week in Canada ... and a nearly identical result; 6-4, 7-6(5), though Girsh was never really in this one despite the scoreline. Iglar has won his 30th Masters, tying him for third place on the all-time list with Martin Prieto. Aside from the quarterfinal against Marcek, he looked very strong. He's not the untouchable force he once was, but he's returned to being the best hardcourt player in the world. Girsh has a serious challenge ahead of him to hold off the Czech. The two of them have now won four each of the eight meetings this year.

Coming Up ...

Mooljee will be back out there in the largest 250 of the year, the Winston-Salem Open in Connecticut. Dudwadkar also will have another event, and then after that the US Open will commence.

[Umbrella]

I'm trying something a bit different this upcoming week. I'm moving Heinen back down to JG4, while also giving Piel his JG4 debut. And they will be doubles partners together. I have no idea how this will play out.

[Brian Swartz]

Winston-Salem

Which is in North Carolina by the way, not Connecticut like I idiotically said last time. Why, I don't really know. Anyway, Prakash Mooljee was seeded second here. Caminha was first, but lost badly in the third round to Radek Smitala, the former world no. 6 who has been working his way back into form after missing far too many tournaments and ending up useless earlier in the year. Mooljee yawned his way to the semifinal, where he had a bad serving start and had to rescue three break points in the first two games against another veteran, Sweden's Olav Birkeland. Once he'd done that, he didn't face another and went on to a competitive straight-sets win to make the final. Smitala was there waiting. The 29-year-old is further gone in tennis terms than Mehul is, and Mooljee has the superior overall game. Radek's extreme hard-court focus gave him a chance though ... and he pulled off a nail-biter of an upset, 6-4, 6-7(5), 7-6(5). Overall, the right player won. Mooljee just couldn't do quite enough, consistently enough in the rallies. Just like last week against Herrera, not a disgrace but it would have been nice to get the win here.

Ritwik Dudwadkar entered what ended up being the most packed tier-4 event he's seen all year; he was only seeded 6th in Medan. After dropping his first doubles match against the top seeds, he was promptly upended in the second round of singles, and in stunningly one-sided fashion. 6-3, 6-0, an embarrassing bagel against unseeded clay-courter Davide Checcinato of Italy. Checcinato came in 258th, not that far behind Dudwadkar, so it's really not that horrifying of a loss ... this was just a tournament that had a tier-3 quality field for whatever reason. Dudwadkar will only get a couple weeks off now, and then he'll be back out.

Coming Up ...

The USO is here now, and perhaps more so than usual, much is riding on it.

[Umbrella]

I'm trying something a bit different this upcoming week. I'm moving Heinen back down to JG4, while also giving Piel his JG4 debut. And they will be doubles partners together. I have no idea how this will play out.

The doubles experiment worked well, as they won. Piel did OK in singles, but Heinen continues to struggle against lesser opponents, losing in the quarterfinals.

[Brian Swartz]

:(. Hopefully he snaps out of it soon. Sometimes that can occur when you least expect it ...


2046 US Open

Early Rounds

Early on, this was the most successful Slam event Sri Lanka has ever had. Shyam Senepathy defeated a Romanian qualifier for his first-ever Slam victory, while Ujjaval was seeded 31st and along with others moved through his first match successfully. The seeds were perfect in the first round; Theodore Bourdet was pushed to five by one of the tour's favorite spoilers this year, de los Santos, but none of them lost. Girish Girsh had a bit of a second-round hiccup, dropping a set to Manfred Borrman, but he recovered well and advanced in four. A couple of lower seeds, Condon and Farkas, departed but nobody from the Top 20. Shreya Ujjaval and Senepathy met in this round as well, with Ujjaval dominating the match with only four games lost.

A few upsets came about in the third round as often happens. Sri Lanka had two shots to get one of them. Ujjaval's latest crack at a fourth-round appearance came against Agustin Herrera. He put up a competitive effort but lost in four sets. Prakash Mooljee had another classic battle in a match I thought he had the edge in, and lost once again against Bjorn Benda, 6-1, 4-6, 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-3. Mooljee had the better of it overall, esp. after the first set, but in what was an uncharacteristic display until recently, he didn't do enough on his break chances. Benda split his(5 of 10), while Prakash was just 4 of 15. Another tough defeat with a chance to move forward. Elsewhere, Andronikov continued his recent strong play upending Marcelo Herrera in four; Sampras stopped the third member of the Peruvian trio, Thiago Herrera, in straight sets; Blagota Cojanovic got a big win, outlasting McCuskey in five; and Phillip Carter[b], an American hiding in the high-20s weeds for a while now, knocked off Federer after losing the first two sets.

The fourth round had a lot less drama. There's very little to say about it as the top seven seeds all advanced. The only player to crash the party of what would otherwhise have been a perfectly top-heavy quarterfinals was Bourdet, who survived his first-round scare and beat [b]Elias Trulsen in four stanzas.

Second Week

The storyline going into this year's final Slam was the return of Iglar and the decline of Mehul. The two were expected to switch their second and third-place spots in the rankings by the tournaments' end, with Iglar claiming his first Slam title in two years. With all the top players here, the fireworks were about to start ... but the quarters didn't cooperate. Girsh beat Kinczllers(four straight QF meetings in just over a month!!), Iglar defeated Benda, and Mehul stopped Gaskell, all in straight sets. Caratti dropped only one against party-crasher Bourdet. A boring round overall and it certainly looked like the top players had all brought something close to their best stuff.

In the semifinals, the first one between Girish Girsh and Antonin Iglar was expected to be the de facto championship match. Both players were a little worn. The Czech got off to a great start, but things got tigher towards the end. Girsh dug himself too big a hole and couldn't rally, falling 6-3, 6-2, 6-7(4), 7-6(5). Who knows what might have happened if he started as well as he finished, but you can't spot a legend a two-set lead and hope to advance. On the other side, Gustavo Caratti was able to win just 14 total points on Mehul's serve and was routinely dispatched.

The final pitted Mehul against Iglar for the 46th time. It was their first Slam final since they met here last year, but this season the Czech was playing much better. Ironically, Anil's earlier failures may have worked in his favor as he was the fresher man. Whatever the reason, you might as well have rewatched the championship match from '45 because this one was pretty much the same. Mehul was narrowly able to get out to the early lead and prevailed in four again, 7-6(5), 6-3, 4-6, 6-4. It shouldn't even have been that close, but he was just 4 of 16 on break chances. Iglar's serve(24 aces to 12) was a big weapon, but not quite big enough.

This is a big win for Mehul in two ways. It keeps him just barely in the #2 spot in the rankings, and it also is his 8th Slam overall. That breaks the logjam he was part of and puts him 6th all-time, cementing his spot as a second-tier great. After the way the last several months have gone, I didn't think he had it in him. I thought maybe ... hopefully ... he'd turn things around next year, but he brought some of the best tennis he is capable of at age 30. He's only about seven months shy of the record here(owned by Gorritepe) for the oldest man to ever win a Slam title. Heck of a tournament by Anil.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Girish Girsh(SRI, 27) -- 13,020

Still a fairly comfortable lead, but it looks like Iglar's got his number again which makes stuff a little more tense. A little over two months for him in the top spot now.

2. Anil Mehul(SRI, 30) -- 10,615

Both Girsh and Iglar have had better seasons overall - but it's Mehul who owns 2 Slam titles this year.

3. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 29) -- 10,540

Losing again in the USO final has to be bitterly disappointing. We'll see if he has to wherewithal to rise again for Shanghai and beyond.

4. Gustavo Caratti(ARG, 27) -- 9,300

Continues to creep up and is now a legitimate part of what has to be considered the Big 4. The gap behind him is enormous, and he waits for one of the others to slip up.

5. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 30) -- 4,900

6. Mugur Kinczllers(ITA, 27) -- 4,785

Kinczllers and Gaskell continue their gradual jockey for position here. It doesn't really matter much in the grand scheme of things - clearly neither of them is going to threaten the top players.

7. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 32) -- 4,690

A surprise USO quarterfinal shows Benda is still just good enough to be occasionally relevant off of clay.

8. Elias Trulsen(SWE, 27) -- 3,855

Aside from the Wimbledon final, he's just sort of floating along in a disappointing year.

9. Thiago Herrera(PER, 29) -- 3,440

Still keeping his head above the packed fray behind him.

10. Garreth McCuskey(USA, 26) -- 2,985

The latest to poke his head in, McCuskey has lots of competition. Poilblan, A. Herrera, and Federer are all just 100 or so points back.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Girish Girsh -- 1st singles(unchanged). Iglar still looms as a potential challenger to hold off. Girsh was champion or runner-up in the three remaining big events, and he'll need another performance similar to that to keep his throne most likely.

Anil Mehul -- 2nd singles(unchanged). Winning the USO was probably just a stay of execution in terms of keeping his spot here, but still a great thing. Right now his overall record is on pace to be his worst in the last six years. I'm interested to see which player finishes out the year; the one who won the AO and USO, or the one who was very vulnerable most of the rest of the campaign.

Prakash Mooljee -- 25th to 21st singles, 249th to 350th doubles. Mooljee has lost three straight matches, all of them very close, all of which I had him a slight-to-moderate favorite in. He'd have progressed a little more had he won any of them, and he probably should have won two. Hopefully this won't affect his confidence too much. Having said that, it'll take considerable work for him to ascend up the rankings. Here's how the points look:

19. Perry Mockler -- 2250
20. Xavier Caminha -- 1745
21. Prakash Mooljee -- 1725
22. Sava Cirakovic -- 1530

To get past 20th, there's a big 500-point jump there with the spots above that more closely bunched together; Mockler is only about 700 short of being in the Top 10. The task right now for Mooljee is to turn around this recent run of frustrating defeats, and edge his way closer to that 10-19 group. Catching them before the end of the year seems unlikely.

Shreya Ujjaval -- 35th to 32nd singles, 79th to 78th doubles. Ujjaval is now 0-7 in the third round of Slams, including the last three US Opens and the last three Slams of this year. That seems almost impossible unless it was intentional. I thought he'd probably get Benda this last try, and he almost did. Nonetheless, getting seeded was a big deal for him and he makes it four Sri Lankans to have reached elite status. Heady stuff for us, it's nice to have a little bit of help from one of my cast-offs.

Shyam Senepathy -- 132nd to 82nd singles! A big-time rise for the much-maligned Senepathy over the past couple of months has been punctuated by his first Slam win just achieved, and before that a couple of challenger wins and a near-miss. I don't know how much higher he'll go, I don't see him making the Top 50 or better but we'll see what happens. He's still playing too much, so that won't help.

Ritwik Dudwadkar -- 210th to 234th juniors. It's been a season of yo-yoing back and forth a bit but basically treading water at not-quite-good-enough to leave the Tier-4 juniors. Probably he won't make the jump until next year when a bunch more players 'graduate'.

Manager Ranking -- 2nd(unchanged), 42.1k to 43.9k points. The long chase continues.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the World Tour Finals
Post-USO Edition

Let's see how things have changed, and if we appear to be headed for any drama this year.

In

Girish Girsh -- 10,170
Antonin Iglar -- 9,220
Gustavo Caratti -- 8,400
Anil Mehul -- 7,865

Iglar is still very much a threat for the year-end #1 spot; if he'd won the US Open final, he would have almost equaled Girsh on the season. Mehul could still finish anywhere from 2nd-4th but I think he's probably going to end up third, with Caratti still in the fourth spot this year.


Probable

Pierce Gaskell -- 4220
Mugur Kinczllers -- 4015
Bjorn Benda -- 3770

Gaskell looks like he's headed for another year of doing just enough to comfortably get in. This is like the third year in a row of that he's had. Eventually his luck will run out, but apparently it's not yet time. Kinczllers and Benda, as expected appear to have done enough to get themselves back in the field as well.

Contenders

Elias Trulsen -- 3315
------------------------
Thiago Herrera -- 3170

Both Trulsen and Herrera are limping towards the finish line, but my money's still on the Swede who is defintely the better hardcourt player.


Long Shots

Garreth McCuskey -- 2715
Theodore Bourdet -- 2615
Agustin Herrera -- 2605

This trio doesn't need a miracle, but they'd each need to pull off a couple of upsets and a deep run at either Shanghai or Paris, possibly both. The fat lady isn't singing yet, but she's definitely warming up.

[Brian Swartz]

WTC Quarterfinals
Sweden(??) vs. Sri Lanka(2nd), Grass

Monday: G. Girsh d. O. Birkeland, 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-1
Tuesday: E. Trulsen d. A. Mehul, 7-6(6), 6-7(4), 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-4
Wednesday: A. Hjoch/P. Myhre d. S. Ujjaval/P. Mooljee, 6-1, 6-0, 6-2
Thursday: G. Girsh d. E. Trulsen, 6-4, 6-1, 6-2
Friday: A. Mehul d. O. Birkeland, 6-2, 6-4, 6-3

Sri Lanka defeats Sweden, 3-2!!

That ... was more tense than expected. The Mehul - Trulsen rubber on day two was a true epic, and put us in a hole given their strength in doubles. Even more surprising was the way Girsh rose to the occasion and dominated to even things up on day four. That basically was the one that was going to either win it or lose it for us. This was the only close quarterfinal tie, and we made it through but Trulsen gave us a big scare.

Next up in a couple weeks is the United States on an indoor court. This is #1 against #2, and we will take the top spot by the end of the year I think if we win. The surface favors us - it's hard to see them beating us here. Strangely this might have been our one scare. On the other side is Argentina against France. Both would be a little dangerous, Argentina primarily as the new Germany. If they get through and get clay in the final ... Caratti is a monster there. So it's far from over, but I continue to like our chances.


Elsewhere ...

Ritwik Dudwadkar was part of the winning doubles team in his latest outing, in Washington DC. He was also the toughest obstacle for the eventual champion, American Evan Boone, who beat him 6-4, 7-5 in the semifinals. A good amount of matches this week and now he'll get a few off.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Semifinals
United States(1st) vs. Sri Lanka(2nd), Indoors

Here we go, the tie that will likely make or break our year.

Monday: A. Mehul d. P. Gaskell, 6-4, 6-2, 6-1
Tuesday: G. Girsh d. G. McCuskey, 6-2, 6-3, 6-1
Wednesday: C. Dring/J. Loudermilk d. S. Ujjaval/R. Kuttikad, 6-1, 6-1, 6-1
Thursday: G. Girsh d. P. Gaskell, 7-6(1), 6-2, 6-4
Friday: A. Mehul d. G. McCuskey, 6-1, 6-4, 6-3

Sri Lanka defeats the United States, 4-1!!

This was basically over after the first day. Gaskell had to go nuts for us to lose and he wasn't up to the task. Indoors is our best surface, so that was a bad bit of luck for the Americans but we would have been favored anywhere. Unfortunate to see Mooljee drop off the doubles team but pairs just haven't been his thing for his whole career for whatever reason.

Additionally, as I hoped, we have finally ascended to the top spot. Sri Lanka is now the #1-ranked tennis nation in the world!!! It's taken a long time, but my top goal for this dynasty has now been achieved. More on where I go from here at the end of the year.

Of course it isn't over yet. France edged Argentina 3-2, with a Thursday meeting between Gustavo Caratti and Davide Poilblan the key. Caratti had beaten Bourdet but needed to win both of his singles rubbers with the Argentine #2, Max Benitez, not at the same level(world no. 63 at the time). Poilblan outlasted him on the grass in an epic match, 6-4, 6-7(3), 4-6, 6-3, 7-5. It was another one of those where the 'wrong' player won; Caratti was just 3 of 13 on break chances, consistently pushing harder in his return games but it wasn't quite enough.

France moves up a spot to third, validating my prediction of a few years back that the Bourdet/Poilblan duo would make them a force. The final will be played on hardcourt. They are very much like us, not strong in doubles but two excellent singles players. Not excellent enough though. We'll be strongly favored.

Elsewhere ...

With the Czech Republic already eliminated, Antonin Iglar won the Malaysian Open(250, Indoors). This normally wouldn't be worth discussing, but it edged him just ahead(25 points out of more than 10k each) of Mehul, who drops to third now. This will affect the draw in Shanghai and beyond significantly.

[Brian Swartz]

October

At nearly the last minute, I changed my mind on what to do with Prakash Mooljee the week before Shanghai. He's in what I consider the toughest spot for end-of-the-year scheduling(players in the 17-32 ranking range). He can't play any of the late-season challengers, but isn't positioned to make a major run in the Masters, including Paris. That makes it hard to load up on tournaments. The change I made was deciding to begin his 'death march' of end-of-the-year tournaments now, by entering the Japan Open(500, Hard). There are five weeks left in the year for him, including this one, and he'll likely play in at least four of them depending on how things go. The schedule will constantly be in flux.

He was seeded 5th here; I was hoping for 4th but I didn't realize that Perry Mockler is now without a manager and he grabbed that spot. It wasn't a kind draw either. He got some revenge in a comeback win over Smitala in the first round, but in the quarterfinals drew Caratti, who he had upset in the Olympics. The Argentine salved some of the sting of recent defeats with a comprehensive 6-3, 6-3 win, Mooljee failing on all 5 break chances. Not an inspiring performance in what should have been a fairly even match if not slightly favorable. Continuation of a trend unfortunately, he appears to be developing the same problem against similarly skilled opponents as Girsh had at the same stage of his career. In any case, only getting three matches in here won't help much in setting himself up for the offseason.

Theodore Bourdet had himself a fine week, knocking off Kinczllers in a classic final in the China Open, and vaulting to a career-high 9th as a result. If he can make a run in Shanghai next week, he could throw a wrench into the calculus for the Tour Finals qualifying ...

[Brian Swartz]

Shanghai Masters

Three of Sri Lanka's four entrants were all drawn in the same quarter unfortunately, and all of them in the same half. It made for a quick exit for Shreya Ujjaval, who beat a wild card in the first round and then lost to Mehul in the second, 7-5, 6-2. Prakash Mooljee had a tough first-round draw, another one of those matches that could go either way against (11)Davide Poilblan(FRA). Poilblan isn't a particularly good hardcourt player and Mooljee's a better athlete, but the Frenchman does have a significant advantage on serve. I was surprised to see Mooljee come up with an impressive 6-3, 6-2 win here! He then knocked out Caminha with only slightly more difficulty, but Anil Mehul dropped him in the third round, 6-2, 7-6(4). Really as good a tournament as could be expected for those two, neither is near Mehul's level quite yet.

Bjorn Benda's latest indignity was the story of the early rounds, losing to Andre Herrera in his first match, the second round. Aside from that there were no great surprises. Bourdet notably continued his good recent play, upending Gaskell in three to reach the quarterfinals, and Benda's spot was filled by Marcek. Girish Girsh had his first test there, against Mugur Kinczllers. This is the fifth straight time they've met at this stage, a strange result that has a less than 0.1% chance of occuring(1 in 4 for each time). Sometimes they've been fairly comfortable wins for Girsh, but this one took everything he could muster to escape 6-7(5), 6-4, 7-6(6). Mehul ended Bourdet's run, Iglar continued to cruise through, and Gustavo Caratti had a bit of a battle but beat Thiago Herrera in three.

Once again the Big 4 made it through to the semis. The 16th meeting between Girsh and Mehul was strangely the first since the AO final at the beginning of this season. Girsh took it 7-6(4), 6-4. He didn't serve well on the day but age has caught up with Mehul enough that even a 12-6 edge in the ace count wasn't enough to save him. Antonin Iglar had a surprisingly tough time with Caratti, dropping a first-set tiebreak, but got through in three. The final was very close. You could even argue that Girsh was slightly the better player this time, but Iglar came up with the big shots when he needed to to edge him 7-5, 7-5.

This week confirms Iglar in the #2 spot in the rankings, pushing Mehul closer to falling to 4th than he is to regaining that position. Girsh still has a solid lead at #1 though ... for now.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the World Tour Finals
Post-Shanghai Update

In(4485 points required to qualify)

Girish Girsh -- 10,770
Antonin Iglar -- 10,020
Gustavo Caratti -- 9,340
Anil Mehul -- 8,175

Three weeks left until the field is determined, and only the top four have yet made it. Their ordering though at the end of the year is not yet finalized. Girsh's strength on the remaining indoor events at Paris and the World Tour Finals which will be held in Russia this year gives him a clear edge at maintaining the #1 spot, but he'll need to fend off Iglar. Mehul could still hold onto the #3 against Caratti, but he'll need a quality finish to do that as well.


Probable

Pierce Gaskell -- 4,380
Mugur Kinczllers -- 4,295

These two simply need one good event or a small slip by those who are below them. Both have upwards of a 95% chance I'd say, but they are not yet assured of their place.


Contenders

Bjorn Benda -- 3,730
Theodore Bourdet -- 3,475
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Elias Trulsen -- 3,405
Thiago Herrera -- 3,270

For the first time in a few seasons, we have some serious drama on our hands here. Four men vying for the last two spots basically, and Bourdet's surge over the last couple of weeks has him narrowly in as of right now. The others have been in middling form at best lately. Bourdet is a fine indoor player and I think he'll make it; Trulsen could, but he is probably on the outside looking in and it would be a hugely disappointing turn for him to miss out now. Herrera is only narrowly hanging on to hope.

Long Shots

Garreth McCuskey -- 2,995
Davide Poilblan -- 2,745
Agustin Herrera -- 2,695

It is not yet over for these three either, though they'll need an even bigger kick than Bourdet has shown to force their way into contention.


Coming Up ...

A trio of 250-level events are up this next week, which is actually nearly concluded at this juncture. Prakash Mooljee has entered the Kremlin Cup as part of his big finish, and a number of WTF hopefuls will aim to improve or solidify their standing.

[Brian Swartz]

World Tour Finals - The 250s

Three 250-level events are the focus will three weeks left to earn a spot. By my calculations, there were nine men left trying to make the final three spots. Prakash Mooljee and Ritwik Dudwadkar were also in action among my players, so there was a lot going on.

Five of the remaining hopefuls chose not to play this week. This was actually the right decision in most cases. All of them have a least one 250 title and many two of them, meaning that they could not strengthen their odds of qualifying and were better off staying fresh for events in the last couple of weeks. The only player who could have benefited and did not participate was Pierce Gaskell, who is knocking on the door already anyway. Kinczllers, Bourdet, and both Herreras wisely sat out the week with a full complement. Two of the four who did play could not help themselves either. Davide Poilblan won the title in Stockholm, and Garreth McCuskey lost in the semifinals. Both are long-shots though and probably have other matters on their mind. Elias Trulsen also lost in the Stockholm semifinals(to 4th-seed Sava Cirakovic), and for him this was a damaging loss. A title would have given him an additional 100 points, moving him ahead of Bourdet for the last spot, for the moment. As it was, he gained nothing. Bjorn Benda entered the Kremlin Cup even though he already has a pair of 250 titles, but for him is was perhaps just due to needing more matches. He would suffer a 7-6(5), 6-3 loss to Prakash Mooljee in the semifinals, as Mooljee avenged his defeat at the USO in their only other meeting. Mooljee beat Perry Mockler in a three-set match in the final, a nice feather in his cap as he pushes toward the end of the year. Rounding out the week's events was Ritwik Dudwadkar doing the double at tier-4 Nonthaburi in Thailand. This basically jumped him back up to where he was at the start of the year - he still needs another good result or two to justify moving up.

With all said and none, none of the nine hopefuls changed their standings. The qualifying cut line has not changed, and with two weeks left all nine are still in play. There are opportunities for everyone starting next week, with a pair of 500-level events.

[Brian Swartz]

World Tour Finals - The 500s

The Swiss Indoors and Valencia Open, both Indoor events, have now set the stage for the final push in Paris. Qualifying is now underway and the first round will begin shortly. But first, here's how the picture has changed.

7 of the 9 remaining hopefuls played in one of the two events, with the French contingent(Theodore Bourdet and Davide Poilblan) electing to skip these events and focus on their home-country Masters. This is a catch-22 type of decision, as they both definitely needed the rest, but their eggs are now all in one basket and it certainly cost them some ground, at least temporarily. On the other hand they'll be fresher and more focused to make a deep run where it will count the most. Time will tell if this is effective or not.

Here's how the others fared:

** Pierce Gaskell was the top seed in Valencia. The critical moment was a semi-final matchup with (4)Agustin Herrera, himself a long-shot for the Tour Finals. Gaskell won in three sets before losing to surprise winner Roberto Martin(ESP) in the final. As a result, he failed to add to his total; he needed to win the title to improve.

** Agustin Herrera added 180 points to his total despite the loss, as he came in with a very weak resume in the 500 events. He still has a very long way to go and will need an improbably deep run in Paris to qualify. To have any realistic chance he really needed to win the title.

** Mugur Kinczllers(Martin) and Thiago Herrera(Sava Cirakovic) both lost in the Valencia QFs, close 3-set matches against lower-ranked opponents. Herrera added a meager 20 points by this and Kinczllers' total was unchanged.

** Bjorn Benda was seeded second at the Swiss Indoors, where three more hopefuls participated. He lost a long tiebreak in the first set against Tobia Alberti(ITA), and it eventually cost him their QF meeting in three sets. Having an open spot, he still added 90 points giving him a bit of a boost, but he's not home yet.

** Elias Trulsen, who is horribly overplayed, won just a single game against Roger Federer in bowing out of the Swiss quarterfinals. It turns out that one reason for Trulsen's disappointing year is that he's focusing a lot on doubles right now. I think this is premature, but perhaps he doesn't care that much about finishing strong in singles. Either way, it was enough to earn him an 80-point bump, and put him narrowly back in the field over Bourdet ... for the moment.

** Garreth McCuskey made the semifinals, where he ran into champion Anil Mehul. I also had Mooljee in this event - he lost to Mehul in the quarters. McCuskey gained 80 pts. here over his next-best result, not nearly as much as he needed.

After all of that, the list of qualifiers for Russia in a month's time now expanded. The minimum points required to qualify fell to 4180, meaning that Gaskell and Kinczllers are the 5th and 6th players to officially make it. The rest of the standings, with 7 still alive for the final two spots:

Bjorn Benda -- 3820
Elias Trulsen -- 3485
---------------------------------
Theodore Bourdet -- 3475
Thiago Herrera -- 3290

Garreth McCuskey -- 3075
Agustin Herrera -- 2875
Davide Poilblan -- 2745

It definitely still looks like Trulsen vs. Bourdet for that final spot, but even Benda needs to make the semifinals in Paris to guarantee he gets in without help. Everyone else would have to win, and for some that might not even be enough. With Trulsen being completely exhausted, I think he'll depart early and Bourdet will join Benda in the final field. Everyone else would need to have a big week, and I'm not convinced any of them are capable of it.

As usual, I'll be reporting round-by-round as I am able on the goings-on at Paris until the field is complete. Girsh, Mehul, and Mooljee will all be there as well, and there are significant implications for all of them in finishing their season off strong.

[Brian Swartz]

Paris Masters
Early Rounds

All of the seeded players get first-round byes here, so none of the WTF hopefuls were in action. Shreya Ujjaval and Prakash Mooljee got through their first matches in straight sets, but both are so worn out by now that they aren't going far. This is actually a good thing here, as it's their last event of the year and means they'll be set up for a good offseason of training over the next two months.

The second round got the all of the top players in action, but none of them against each other. It was just a matter of avoiding upsets before things really started to heat up. It wasn't easy for some of them. Agustin Herrera rallied from a set down against Robert Martin, last week's surprise winner, 4-6, 6-2, 6-4 to keep his long-shot chances alive. Kinczllers, who is already in, was nearly stunned by Zourab Andronikov and only advanced by virtue of a razor-thin margin in a third-set tiebreak. The only real 'upset' came when Elias Trulsen lost badly, 6-1, 6-2 to qualifier Andre Herrera. With this defeat, he was eliminated from contention as, for now, Theodore Bourdet grabbed the final spot with a 7-5, 6-3 win over Sava Cirakovic.

Thiago Herrera was now the best-positioned to mount a challenge, and six players still remained in contention for the last two spots. They'd all have to make at least the semifinals to overcome Bourdet, however, and that's assuming he doesn't make it that far.

[Brian Swartz]

Paris Masters - Third Round

This is the stage where players really start getting separated out, the last chance as they go up against each other. A number of them always get eliminated here.

** Agustin Herrera matched up with Girish Girsh, objectively now the top indoor player in the world in addition to being world no. 1. Girsh won easily, 6-2, 6-2, and Herrera is out of the running.

** Garreth McCuskey had a definite opportunity to keep going against Peruvian qualifier Andre Herrera, but he lost 6-3, 6-4 and his chances were ended here as well.

** Anil Mehul moved through another match easily, dispatching qualifier Pavel Bestemianov. The aging Russian had an impressive run just to get here.

** Theodore Bourdet was involved in the day's best match against Mugur Kinczllers. Kinczllers had narrowly survived yesterday; here he narrowly didn't, with the crowd urging Bourdet past, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4. This will make it that much harder for anyone to surpass him ...

** Thiago Herrera now had the best chance to play spoiler, but he was dumped out by Antonin Iglar, 6-2, 6-4.

** In couple of matches with no bearing, Federer got the upset against Gaskell, and Caratti advanced with a win over Alberti.

** Davide Poilblan's youth and favor with the crowd proved more than enough against Bjorn Benda, 6-3, 6-4. Poilblan is the lone remaining long-shot now, but he'd need to go all the way and win the title in order to have a chance at this point.


Benda is now nearly assured of the 7th spot. He will have to watch the quarterfinals now, but the only way he doesn't make the Tour Finals is if both Bourdet and Poilblan make the championship match with Poilblan winning. That is unlikely in the extreme.

[Brian Swartz]

Paris Masters - Quarterfinals

Girish Girsh sent Andre Herrera home easily, and Anil Mehul did the same to Bourdet(6-3, 6-0). This puts Bjorn Benda officially in the field. One of the two Frenchmen will take the last spot; it'll be Bourdet unless Poilblan is the champion here. The bottom half saw Iglar predictably stomp Roger Federer, and Caratti figured to make it a perfect group of the top four in the semis once again. Davide Poilblan had other ideas though, extending the drama for at least one more day. He rallied for a 4-6, 6-2, 6-4 victory against the Argentine. He'll need two minor miracles, first against Iglar, to complete an improbable storybook ending to his season, but he's still alive and his countryman Theodore Bourdet has to sweat at least a bit now.

[Brian Swartz]

Paris Masters - Semifinals

Anil Mehul got off to a good start in the first semi, but Girish Girsh rallied for a three-set win. It was a similar story in the second match, with Iglar ending Davide Poilblan's bid for the tour finals 3-6, 6-4, 6-2. A game effort, but he had too much ground to make up and it will be Bourdet who represents France there for the first time in my memory at least. Girsh has a chance to all but lock down the year-end #1 spot in the final; if he loses, all bets are off.

[MrBug708]

I'm sure it's been asked, but is there any way we can join you in this venture?

[Brian Swartz]

Anybody who wants to can join the game, hire and train their own players, etc. Some have already done that but they are competing against me or in other game worlds, 'joining' me per se isn't a thing. Esp. since I've now achieved my main goals here.

[MrBug708]

Which world are you in?

[Brian Swartz]

The slow one. RR1(#1). Pace drives some people nuts(1 week = 1 real-life day) but I find it works well for me since I rarely miss stuff ... only need to be able to briefly check it a couple times in a day to keep up with everything. There's another thread with lots of tips, strategy, and stuff, feel free to ask questions here or there.

[Brian Swartz]

World Tour Finals Preview

Girsh beat Iglar in the Paris final, 7-6(1), 7-5, and now holds a strong grip on the top spot. It is his 6th Masters. It's not totally over yet though. The final Race standings:

Girish Girsh -- 11,520
Antonin Iglar -- 10,620
Gustavo Caratti -- 9,520
Anil Mehul -- 9,025
Pierce Gaskell -- 4,470
Mugur Kinczllers -- 4,385
Bjorn Benda -- 3,910
Theodore Bourdet -- 3,655

Girsh doesn't need to win the tour finals to stay at #1 through the end of the year, but he does need to make the championship match to guarantee that will happen regardless of what Iglar does. Mehul will probably need to get there himself if he wants to finish third, which is not all that important but it still gives him something to play for definitely.

** Girish Girsh is looking for his first WTF title in his fourth appearance, having lost the final the last two years. It would seem to be his time, and he certainly wouldn't do his chances of hanging onto the #1 spot for a while longer any harm by breaking through here.

** Antonin Iglar is returning for his eighth go-round. He was a finalist or champion(3 times) for five straight years, but lost in the semis last year.

** Anil Mehul has also won it three times. This is his seventh appearance.

** Gustavo Caratti is back for his second try after losing in the group stage last year. Whether he's improved enough to do better than that remains to be seen.

** Bjorn Benda has the longest active streak; this is his ninth showing although he hasn't made it out of group play the last couple times. This is very much an 'honorary send-off' for the 32-year-old, a final good-bye to his days of challenging the very best in the game.

** Pierce Gaskell is in his 5th run here, making the semifinals each time. He's always done unexpectedly well; we'll see if that pattern holds.

** Mugur Kinczllers lost in group play last year and is back again for another try. I'd expect the same result.

** Theodore Bourdet is the lone newcomer this year. Like Mehul and Girsh, he's put a lot of work on the indoor courts. If he ends up in the same group as Caratti, he could well advance to the semifinals. In either case, the top Frenchman is definitely a sleeper threat here that should not be taken lightly.

Girsh is the favorite here, with Iglar and Mehul basically co-challengers. Bourdet is the long-shot, though a lot of things would need to break his way for him to have a real chance.

[Brian Swartz]

World Tour Finals

Girsh(1st), Caratti(3rd), Kinczllers(6th), and Bourdet(8th) were drawn into the first group; Iglar(2nd), Mehul(4th), Gaskell(5th), and Benda(7th) in the second one. This seemed to mostly be an advantage for Bourdet, but things don't always work out as planned. It was a close match, but in the key encounter between Caratti and Bourdet, the Argentine prevailed 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. Both players won 84 points apiece; it's hard to get much closer than that.

Iglar and Girsh swept their matched, though Girsh dropped a set to Bourdet and the Czech was clean. Mehul, as expected, along with Caratti beat everyone else, and the big four all made it through to the semifinals. No Bourdet, and Gaskell's run of making it out of group play each time here is also over.

The first semifinal was Girish Girsh against Anil Mehul. It's not often I am shocked at a match result but that certainly was the case here. Girsh laid an egg, an absolute egg, winning just eight points off the Mehul serve in a comprehensive 6-4, 6-3 defeat. This opened the door for Iglar, who beat Caratti in straight sets. In the final, Mehul lost a close first-set breaker but rallied to dominate Antonin Iglar in the second. He fell behind a break though in the third but couldn't recover, losing a close 7-6(4), 2-6, 6-4 tussle between the 3-time champions. Iglar ends a perfect run here with his 4th, tying him for 3rd all-time.

A very interesting, obviously rare, and unforeseen situation arose as a result. Girsh and Iglar are now tied for the #1 ranking. I don't know why, perhaps because he had it before and hasn't been surpassed, but Girsh retains the top spot with both players at 12,120. The margin for error is now obviously nil. Mehul will finish the year 4th, but he is only 95 points behind Caratti, a difference of less than 1% of their totals. It will be most interesting to see what happens next year with these razor-thin margins; even the WTF Finals in a couple weeks could shift things significantly. None of the 'second four' did enough to change their fortunes much.

[Brian Swartz]

During the off week following the Tour Finals, there was one event worth noting. Ritwik Dudwadkar entered his final event of the year, another tier-4 event in Auckland, New Zealand. He was seeded second and frankly annihilated the field, handing out a pair of breadsticks to the once-imposing Florentino Suarez in the final. A narrow loss in the doubles final was his only flaw on the week.

Dudwadkar will be making the jump to tier-3 soon, possibly after one more tier-4 event, that remains to be seen. His endurance has reached the point(2.5 right now) where he can play deep into both singles and doubles and still perform well. This last tournament success pushed him into the Top 200 of juniors for the first time, and he'll see a bigger bump than that of course at the end of the year when another crop of players turn pro.

World Team Cup Finals
Sri Lanka(1st) vs. France(3rd), Hardcourt

This of course was the only notable event remaining this year, as we seek to defend our title from last season. One point of interest this week is that Iglar ascended to #1 while Girsh fell to #2 in the world rankings, despite both players being tied in the points total still. My working hypothesis at the moment is that in such situations the game uses the highly sophisticated, complex, and deeply mathematical method known as 'flipping a coin' to resolve such situations. Probably as good as anything, since both players played almost 100 matches this year and there would be a clear choice if you changed the result of any one of those. It'll be interesting to see if the order switches again before the tie is broken.

Monday: G. Girsh d. D. Poilblan, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3
Tuesday: A. Mehul d. T. Bourdet, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
Wednesday: S. Ujjaval/P. Mooljee d. R. Iragui/T. Rey, 6-4, 6-2, 7-5
Thursday: G. Girsh d. T. Bourdet, 6-4, 6-1, 6-4
Friday: A. Mehul d. D. Poilblan, 6-3, 6-3, 6-4

Sri Lanka defeats France, 5-0!!

That was rather unexpectedly comprehensive. Each rubber was competitive, and yet we did not drop a single set. Mooljee was back in doubles with Kuttikad's ranking there dropping into the 400s as age appears to be taking him, and contributed to a rare doubles win for us nicely ... Ujjaval is the highest-ranking doubles player in Sri Lanka history, and still the better of the pair in that discipline. I fully expected to win this, but it was a very focused, disciplined effort, a good way to end another successful season. Back to back titles for us, and we end the year #1 in the world, with the United States close behind still as the only nation in striking distance. France is third, just ahead of Spain.

The WTC Playoffs are up next week, beginning the end-of-the-year cycle.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Level 1 Playoffs

** Switzerland(22nd) vs. Denmark(17th) -- Aging Roger Federer(SUI, 14th) has been the standard-bearer for the Swiss in a four-year stretch in Level 1, in which they have won only one tie in group play, and that narrowly. This is their third relegation playoff in that stretch. The Danes were relegated a year ago and are looking to bounce back up after a narrow loss to Japan in the Level 2 final. With their top two players fading as well(30 and 31 years old), they simply don't have the horses and get blanked here 5-0. The Swiss stay up, and Denmark will have to try again next year though their odds are not good.

** China(33rd) vs. Peru(9th) -- Rather embarassing for Peru to even need to play here. China meanwhile is in it's sixth straight year the Level 2, and they were even lower before that. This is their first shot at promoting to the top tier, so for them this is a great opportunity. They needed an easier draw to have a chance though; the Chinese singles players are both in the 70s in ranking. Peru brushes them aside 4-1, another example of the status quo holding.

** Mexico(19th) vs. South Africa(10th) -- Both nations here have one solid singles player(in the 70s), and one not-so-solid. The difference is that Mexico has a top-flite doubles tandem, and that proved to be the difference in a 3-2 win for them. They extend one of the longer streaks in Level 1 to 16 straight years, despite having to deal with relegation playoffs three straight years and four of the last five. South Africa heads back down after just one year at the top, having edged Luxembourg twice last year to get up. I'm not sure where they go from here. The South African #2, Alex Beamer, is 32 and fading fast at 105th. Mqabukonyongolo Nkomo, winner of the longest name award, is their top player and not yet 24, so he's still getting better. I don't know if they'll have anything to put with his efforts though.

** Singapore(38th) vs. Japan(16th) -- Interesting matchup here. Singapore is like us a few years ago ... not as good, but in 2041 they ended a 20-year drought of participation in the WTC, finally getting enough notice to earn a spot in the lowest tier at Level 4. In the next two years they won just a single tie in group play, but stayed in it and earned back-to-back promotions in '43 and '44. '45 wasn't good to them, but his year they made the Level 2 semis, losing badly to Denmark, and earning a shot at the big time. Fueling all of this is Aparna Cansai, their best player by far at 47th in the world. He's basically in his prime right now and won't rise much higher; this could be as good as they get. He was able to take a singles and doubles match against the Japanese, but couldn't beat their top player Ai Sugiyama(31st), and Japan narrowly wins 3-2. It's a big moment for them as well in this matchup of Asian island nations. Japan was in level 3 just three years ago, falling 4-1 to Mexico in a playoff chance last year. This time they have made it, and we'll see what they can do with their chance. Sugiyama is getting better but Shogo Ko, their #2, is on the decline. Promising youngster Hayato Honda(154th, 20 years old) is on the rise and will soon take his spot, perhaps later this year. There could be enough between the two of them to make a competitive Level 1 entrant in a couple years. We shall see.

Japsn is up, South Africa down. One each direction seems to be the usual way of things.


2047 World Team Cup Preview

The four groups are fairly balanced this year. Sri Lanka is in Group 2, one of the tougher ones, along with #3 France, #9 Peru, and #20 Italy. Peru can be hazardous on clay and the Italians are far better than 20th in the world with Mugur Kinczllers a Top 10 mainstay the last couple of years and 19th-ranked Tobia Alberti also still near the peak of his powers. We should come through this group as the winners but none of the matchups will be completely without danger.

2047 National Rankings

1. Sri Lanka -- 2539
2. United States -- 2479
3. France -- 2172
4. Spain -- 2159
5. Argentina -- 2087
6. Czech Republic -- 2052
7. Germany -- 2031
8. Russia -- 2002
9. Peru -- 1941
10. Sweden -- 1837
10. South Africa -- 1837

It's just us and the USA at the top as we embark on an attempt to win our third straight World Championship. A packed group trails the two of us, but at a considerable distance.

[NevStar]

One point of interest this week is that Iglar ascended to #1 while Girsh fell to #2 in the world rankings, despite both players being tied in the points total still. My working hypothesis at the moment is that in such situations the game uses the highly sophisticated, complex, and deeply mathematical method known as 'flipping a coin' to resolve such situations.

In doubles (where having two players with the same score at the top is more frequent), it alternates the top player every week. I'd bet the same thing is happening here.

[Brian Swartz]

I thought it might do that, but Iglar has now been at #1, with the points still tied, three weeks in a row. There might be some tiebreaker at work that's beyond my understanding.

[Brian Swartz]

Aaaaaand Girsh flipped back up to #1 to start the new year, still tied. So go figure. Anyway, 2046 is here! That means it's time to spam-post once again, and look ahead to the ever-changing prospects for a new season.

Where Do I Go From Here?

I could now end this dynasty, and it would be a complete success. I've won the World Team Cup two years in a row, won the Olympics, Sri Lanka has completed the 86th to 1st in the world journey and has good prospects for staying there. I thought about setting it aside but there are a couple reasons not to. First, I'd like to see how I fare against Umbrella's Germans once they get to their best years. I also would like to see if I can get a truly great player, which probably means waiting until I have a supertrainer. Mehul is my best chance at that, after about another decade of working towards it. He has the best aging factor and endurance of any of my players, and should be able to easily become a 5+ trainer when he's done. If I can get a marginally better created player at that time, I'd be interested to see how that worked out.

So for now at least, I will keep on keeping on.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1(T). Girish Girsh(SRI, 27) -- 12,120
1(T). Antonin Iglar(CZE, 30) -- 12,120

Anybody's guess who is on top from week to week, but right now it's Girsh. By the time the AO is over though, it's highly likely Iglar will have seized the reigns again. I expect a certain amount of jockeying back and forth here between these two over the next couple of years.

3. Gustavo Caratti(ARG, 27) -- 9,920

The youngest member of the Big 4, Caratti has reached new heights here by edging out Mehul. I think this is probably as high as he goes, but we'll see. As the new, unquestioned King of Clay, Gustavo should remain among the best of the best for at least a couple years.

4. Anil Mehul(SRI, 30) -- 9,825

He could see a rebirth of sorts this year; I think Anil has more left than he showed last season. But this is still close to right for him. He's not good enough to be the best anymore, but still clearly among the top contenders. Another year or two, and he may slip further but I don't think that happens anytime soon. There's nobody ready to take him down any further. It's a long way to ...

5. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 30) -- 4,670

Like a resistant weed, Gaskell just won't go away.

6. Mugur Kinczllers(ITA, 27) -- 4,385

Kinczllers still hangs around and on his day, he can be a threat to anyone on a hardcourt surface.

7. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 32) -- 3,910

On his way down, and quickly.

8. Theodore Bourdet(FRA, 25) -- 3,855

Bourdet could take over the 'best of the rest' spot in 5th this year. He hasn't a prayer of rising above that for some time though in my opinion.

9. Elias Trulsen(SWE, 27) -- 3,495

Trulsen could have been fairly special had he not devoted too much time to doubles. Looks like he's headed that way again, so we may not see much more of him.

10. Thiago Herrera(PER, 29) -- 3,420

Slowly giving way to the youngsters.

The bottom of this list have taken some territory from those in the middle of it, but the big story continues to be the Big 4's dominance. It's the exception rather than the rule when they fail to be the last group standing in the semifinals of a big tournament. It looks like that pattern may well continue.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Girish Girsh -- 3rd to 1st singles. Somewhat better than last year at 82-10, Girsh's first 80-win season and 4 wins, 2 losses better than a year ago. He's definitely past his best play now, but so is all of his competition except for Caratti, who will begin his decline soon. The conflict with Iglar and Caratti will define how much time he can spend in the top spot, and ultimately his legacy will be determined by that over the next year or two.

Anil Mehul -- 1st to 4th singles. Mehul's season ended at 73-17, his worst mark in the past five seasons. He's in the 'hanging on to what he can' part of his career now. It's quite strange to have the guy who won two Slams plummet to 4th, but he failed to reach a single Masters final and was beaten far more often than usual by inferior players. As much as it could have been a much better year, it could also have been a lot worse.

Prakash Mooljee -- 44th to 19th singles, 304th to 197th doubles. Mooljee is dead-even with where Girsh was at the same age(19th), and much better than Mehul managed(31st). He's only got three challengers, one not even listed, to replace this year. This season will be about how quickly he can rise, defined by how well he controls his encounters with players outside of the Big 4. Girsh stumbled at this stage of his career, moving only to 13th. I think Mooljee has a long-shot chance at the Tour Finals, but he needs to progress quickly.

Shreya Ujjaval -- 57th to 29th singles, 157th to 52nd doubles. Ujjaval proved that he is indeed too good not to break through, recovering nicely from a disappointing season two years ago to become the highest-ranked doubles player in Sri Lanka history! He's also become an unprecedented fourth national player to reach the elite(Top 32) status. He can still get better for probably close to another two years, and will likely flirt with the Top 10 at some stage.

Shyam Senepathy -- 166th to 85th singles. An impressive rise this year, more than I expected. I don't think Senepathy really has much more in him though, but we'll see.

Ritwik Dudwadkar -- 209th to 100th juniors. He wasn't nearly as dominant as Mooljee was at this age(2 losses compared to 7) but he's still doing pretty well. There are 15 players, including one Jakob Heinen, younger and higher-ranked ... but none of them are in the Top 50. He's about where he should be, and we'll see how the continuing gradual shift from service to skill serves him as he makes the jump to tier-3 soon.

Manager Ranking -- 2nd(unchanged), 39.9k points to 43.1k. Not nearly the jump I had last year, but more of what I'd expect. I'm now just about exactly halfway between 1st and 3rd, a major gulf in each direction.

[Brian Swartz]

2047 Preview

1. Girish Girsh(89%, 8.75, -0.03) -- Still the best player in the world, but not the champion or hardcourt player Iglar is.

2. Antonin Iglar(82%, 8.69, -0.04) -- 30 years old, and still my odds-on favorite for the top player this coming year given his resurgence the past several months.

3. Gustavo Caratti(90%, 8.41, +0.02) -- Still well off the pace of the top players, and this is as good as the Argentine is going to get. Like many other masters of clay, he doesn't have much chance of doing enough elsewhere to challenge for the top spot.

4. Anil Mehul(83%, 8.49, -0.13) -- This shows what was clear from last year's results; Mehul's definitely lost more than a step. He's got a chance of slipping past Caratti again, but that's about it.

5. Pierce Gaskell(81%, 8.34, -0.09) -- Gaskell's ability to stay relevant after finishing last year 6th surprised me. I'll be even more so if he manages to do it again.

6. Mugur Kinczllers(87%, 8.21, -0.13) -- Like so many do too early, Kinczllers clearly put significant work into his doubles game this season. No question he's headed the wrong direction now.

7. Bjorn Benda(77%, 8.21, -0.14) -- In a move not altogether shocking, Benda was fired by oprice just recently. He held onto Iglar and hasn't hired anyone else yet, which makes me curious about his plans. Regardless, Benda is plummeting even faster than those around him.

8. Theodore Bourdet(93%, 8.18, --) -- The math suggests Bourdet was simply lucky this year. He certainly should have been able to improve at least some, and I still maintain Poilblan is a better player. But Bourdet is the one who brought the results. This year, he has the challenge of trying to stay here.

9. Elias Trulsen(89%, 8.34, --) -- Keeping the same level would ordinarily be a sign of strength with so many seeing their game decline. The question for Trulsen though is can he do anything outside of Wimbledon. His level of play was atrocious compared to his ability, and there are questions about whether he intends to go doubles. Management was horrific at times. He definitely needs, and is very capable of, a bounce-back season.

10. Thiago Herrera(83%, 8.01, -0.15) -- Not a good year for Thiago, who looks for all the world like he's headed to obscurity.

11. Davide Poilblan(90%, 8.31, -0.01) -- Poilblan did move up this year(16th last season), but not as much as his slightly younger countryman. He'll probably edge into the Top 10 now, but I don't know that there's time left for him to go much further.

12. Garreth McCuskey(90%, 8.20, -0.03) -- McCuskey has all the extras but no baseline game. Another guy who has reached his best tennis and found it wasn't good enough. Marginal Top 10 possibility this year but not going anywhere worth writing about.

13. Agustin Herrera(92%, 8.18, +0.03) -- Yet another player who could, or could not, make the first page. Herrera's near his best, and doesn't have enough to make up for his slowness.

15. Tobia Alberti(87%, 8.19) -- Alberti didn't make last year's rundown, and is currently one spot shy of his personal high of 14th. Good athleticism and mental game, just not quite got there with the dedication or technical skills.

18. Peter Sampras(92%, 7.86) -- Sampras has had some big wins, but he has little athleticism, relies too much on his serve, and has felt the call of doubles unfortunately.

19. Prakash Mooljee(98%, 8.47, +0.29) -- The contrast to the pretenders elsewhere is striking. Mooljee has become fifth at worst, and I'd say third-best in the world while still 22. A couple months ago the first faint signs that he was receding from his physical peak showed up, and now they are unmistakable. Further gains will be more difficult, but he's got time. The sooner he is able to move past the inferior players ahead of him, the better of he'll be. Only Girsh and Iglar should be considered untouchable for him now ... and even they won't be for long. The step up in competition was very apparent last year; his 51 wins were just one shy of his average for the previous three years, but he lost more(15) than in those seasons combined(10). There should be fewer players able to take him down now though.

29. Shreya Ujjaval(95%, 8.31, +0.13) -- Ujjaval does appear to be on his way to the Top 10. Mooljee he's not, and clearly surpassed by the younger player now. It'd be nice if he worked on his serve a little more, but I would expect continued progress from him esp. now that he's in a position to get better draws.

51. Luc Janin(101%, 7.92, --) -- Forgot to mention him at the start of the year. This is as of week 4, start of the Australian Open. He's just turned 20 a couple weeks ago and is about to reach the Top 50. Scary.

85. Shyam Senepathy(99%, 7.05, +0.29) -- I really think he overachieved last year. He's just not where he needs to be yet, probably ever, to push for a Top 50 spot.

100J. Ritwik Dudwadkar(75%, 4.04, +1.06) -- The fun part, when guys improve more from aging than from training.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Group Two, First Round
Peru(9th) vs. Sri Lanka(1st), Hardcourt

Monday: A. Mehul d. T. Herrera, 6-3, 6-2, 6-3
Tuesday: G. Girsh d. A. Herrera, 6-3, 7-6(3), 7-6(8)
Wednesday: S. Ujjaval/P. Moojee d. J. Torres/E.Echiverri, 6-0, 6-0, 6-0
Thursday: G. Girsh d. T. Herrera, 7-5, 6-1, 6-2
Friday: A. Mehul d. A. Herrera, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4

Sri Lanka defeats Peru, 5-0!!

That was easy, though not as easy as it may have looked. Girsh had some tense moments, and was quite fortunate to get through his first match in straight sets. Peru came into the season unprepared as they did last year, and paid the price. Other favorites were not so lucky; in our group Italy upset France 3-2, putting them in a good position to advance. The world's third-ranked nation might not even get out of group play; that would be something.

Tune-ups for the AO are next on our agenda, and when the WTC continues we've got France indoors.

[Brian Swartz]

January

Everybody got in a tournament over the next couple of weeks. Prakash Mooljee was up first, in Brisbane(250). Seeded 5th, he was upset by potential rival Tomas Niklas(35th, CZE) in the quarterfinals. The final count was 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, but Mooljee should have won this one. He was 1 of 5 on break points while losing 2 of 3 on his own serve, and in a match with relatively few chances that was the difference. Niklas is a quality player and a hardcourt expert, so he played reasonably well - just didn't come away with the win. It's a missed opportunity though for sure, and hopefully will be a rare occurrence this year.

The other three were in action the next week. Ritwik Dudwadkar got his first tier-3 juniors tournament. I was debating whether to give him one more tier-4, but there were two bigger events and three at the tier-3 level, so the top players would hopefully get spread around. Seeded 5th, he made the semifinals in both draws, giving champion Arsenio Corres(ESP), a clay-court specialist, his toughest match of the tournament in a 7-6(5), 6-4 score. A quality showing. Anytime he can hold his own in a tier-3 he'll be out there, but some weeks are less dense so he could see tier-4 action yet once or twice. We'll see what the schedule looks like for his next time out in a few weeks.
Anil Mehul and Girish Girsh both took care of business with the sixth 250-level title for each of them, in Auckland and Sydney respectively.

Coming Up ...


Mehul will go into the AO as the #3 now having moved ahead of Caratti, but unless he defends his title there that spot will be gone probably for good. He wasn't favored last year either, but the task would seem to be even more difficult this season. Girsh is still tied with Iglar for the #1 spot, a tie that is likely to be broken now. It's pretty simple: he needs to win the year's first Slam to grasp it. Anything short of that and Iglar probably will surge ahead. There could be some high drama upcoming. As for Mooljee, he's hoping for a kind draw, an upset chance, or both in order to equal last year's 4th-round finish, his best showing to date in a Slam event.

[Brian Swartz]

2047 Australian Open

Opening Rounds

There were some big surprises right away, unusual for a Slam event. Hrant Amasian(111th) became the first Armenian player that I can recall winning a Slam match. I took a look through their history and they had a guy reach 17th in the world about 35 years ago. Nobody from that nation has ever won a big event. Amasian is 24 years old, and could be relevant in a couple of years possibly. Bjorn Benda earned the ignominy of becoming the first player I can recall seeded this high(7th) to lose in the first round. Recent upset specialist Juan de los Santos of Spain did the honors in a close four-set match. Marcelo Herrera(16th) was also knocked out and can thank his lack of preparation mostly for a defeat to recently-mentioned Cansai of Singapore.

All five Sri Lankans entered here advanced in straight sets; it was also a first in that we had four seeded players. Djurdje Moicevic of Germany was knocked out in the second round but he had a very eventful 10 sets in two days. The first round he won 9-7 in the 5th; in the second he went out 6-4 in the final stanza to Japan's Akihiro Sugiyama. Gustavo Caratti was pushed to five but made it through against American hard-court specialist Tiosav Srbulovic. Not the most American of names, but the 41st-ranked 21-year-old could be a future titan for US tennis and will bear watching. Sava Cirakovic(23rd, CRO) and Phillip Carter(25th, USA) also were extended the distance, but all of the seeds progressed through. Shyam Senepathy was the first Sri Lankan to fall, getting just three games from Girsh. Mehul had the priviledge of dispatching Canadian prodigy Luc Janin in straight sets.

Four more straight-set wins for Sri Lanka in the third round. Prakash Mooljee's path was made easier by Herrera's early exit, as they had been drawn to play at this stage. There were a number of matches going the distance here though. Federer beat Sugiyama and Bourdet beat Condon in five-setters, but the one that really got the headlines was a matchup of US players, Pierce Gaskell(5th) and Fabricio Gilardino(26th). Gaskell rallied from two sets down for a truly epic 4-6, 4-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(6), 15-13!! win. It was the longest match I've yet seen in this game, requiring 457 points to decide. Ultimately Gilardino's relatively unreliable serve(13 double faults) was the decider, but he was very close to knocking his country's top player out of this tournament early.

Mooljee had a big opportunity next up in the fourth round. He'd already matched his best Slam finish, which came here last year, but a potential path to the semis was there for him. To get there, he needed to take out Gustavo Caratti. On hardcourt, I had Mooljee as a modest favorite ... but he has not looked sharp so far this year. The Argentine was able to be much more consistent in the rallies and sent him to a deserved but disappointing 6-4, 6-4, 7-6(6) defeat. It was another of the kind of opportunity that Prakash needs to rise up and seize if he's going to do more than slowly ascend. Elsewhere, Shreya Ujjaval had made good use of the absence of Benda to reach this stage also, where he met with 13th-ranked Agustin Herrera. Impressively, he continued his string of straight-sets wins, 6-4, 7-6(6), 7-6(1). Coming into this event, he had missed on several chances to get past the third round of a Slam, and here he was making his first Slam quarterfinal! Results elsewhere were more-or-less as anticiapted; it was not surprising to see Gaskell fall to T. Herrera, tired as he was from the epic a couple days ago.


Second Week

Three players for us in the quarterfinals, and it could have been four. The first matchup Sri Lanka was not involved in though, with Antonin Iglar getting his toughest test so far but still remaining perfect in a close straight-set win against Bourdet. Anil Mehul dropped T. Herrera routinely, Girish Girsh stopped the storybook tale of Ujjaval but had to earn it a bit, 7-5, 6-3, 6-2. The match of the round was probably Caratti against Mugur Kinczllers. The Italian isn't what he used to be, and went out here in four sets.

Semifinals, and the big four were here again. Surprise, surprise ... all the theatrics happened early, and it was more of the same at the end. By this point, Caratti was guaranteed of taking the #3 spot back no matter what happened, but #1 was still up in the air. Mehul came up short badly against Iglar in the first match when it mattered most; 0-4 on break chances, dropped 2 of 3 on his own serve. He played well enough not to win necessarily but to have a chance at stealing the match, but went out in straight sets. In the second one, it looked for a long time like Caratti would pull off the upset. Girsh won a tiebreak, then was badly outplayed in the second and third stanzas. He rallied for a 7-6(3), 3-6, 2-6, 6-4, 6-3 win, but it's clear that the strong Argentine standard-bearer is still pushing upwards, hoping to catch the power pair at the top.

And so, a fitting final. Girish Girsh and Antonin Iglar meet, tied for the #1 spot and both unbeaten in the year's first month. The tie would be broken no matter what; the winner would have the next month or a little more to be pretty secure in having seized the moment. From the start, the match had a tense, strange feel to it. Usually the competitive battles are the one Girsh fades in, but he got an early break in each of the first three sets. Despite multiple chances to do so, he didn't give it back until it was 2-0 in sets, 3-1 in the third, a few holds away from victory ... Iglar got back even, then won a tiebreak and went to the lead in the fourth. Down 2-1 in that set, Girsh pushed back and won the next four games, ultimately claiming his first hardcourt Slam 6-3, 6-4, 6-7(2), 6-3! It was the kind of match he's lost all his career, and his second Slam(last year's Wimbledon was his first). As for Iglar, he's now lost his last six Slam finals. Shades of Lendl there. He played well enough to win this one, but was just 2 of 17 on break points.

Girsh is #1 undisputed now again. He has a lot of work to do to stay there -- he'll probably need to win both Indian Wells and Miami, as he did last year, to hold off the Czech legend. Until then though, the spot's his.

Coming Up ...

France is our opponent in the second round of WTC group play. A win would clinch a spot in the knockout rounds again, but they'll be desperate, having lost to Italy already ...

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Group Two, Second Round
Sri Lanka(1st) vs. France(5th), Indoors

Monday: G. Girsh d. D. Poilblan, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
Tuesday: T. Bourdet d. A. Mehul, 2-6, 7-6(2), 7-6(2), 6-4
Wednesday: R. Iraugui/T. Rey d. S. Ujjaval/P. Mooljee, 6-3, 6-2, 1-6, 7-6(6)
Thursday: G. Girsh d. T. Bourdet, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(2)
Friday: A. Mehul d. D. Poilblan, 6-4, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4

Sri Lanka defeats France, 3-2!!

It was sure a heck of a lot tougher than last year's world championship tie. Mehul folded like a cheap tent on Tuesday, leaving all of his best tennis behind in the first set and then getting himself in good positions only to consistently choke the rest of the way. Bourdet's a quality player but I was not impressed with his showing there. A double loss put us one rubber from defeat, but Girsh took care of business both times and Mehul got the victory in Friday's decider. Wasn't pretty, but it got the job done and we're assured of a spot in the quarterfinals. France, meanwhile, is already down to 5th and now they've been knocked out of contention. A bitter pill for them, to be sure.

Italy beat Peru 4-1, so we'll face the Italians, also indoors, with the top spot in the group on the line. We've actually lost just a bit of ground to the United States in the rankings this year, though we're still #1. Any loss could bump us back down so we can't get cocky.

Coming Up ...

The usual routine for Girsh, still unbeaten this season, in the year's first big break; he's off until Indian Wells in a month. I'm toying with having Mehul play the week before and that could go either way. Dudwadkar will have an other tournament soon, and Mooljee will probably have a couple in the interim so there will still be a fair bit of action even with no major events on the schedule.

[britrock88]

For anyone looking for an interesting RR2 prospect, check out Galo la Vista, a 14yo Spaniard.

[Brian Swartz]

February/March

It was busier than usual for this time of year. Ritwik Dudwadkar was first up, going back down a level in a light week for a tier-4 event in Algeria. He won singles easily and just scraped through for the doubles title as well. A successful week that adds a bit to his points total but not enough to keep up with the crowd of players moving up to better events. It'll be some time yet before things stabilize for him.

Prakash Mooljee entered the Delray Beach 250 the next week, I thought about the Rio 500 but the field was a little too strong there. Seeded third, he got a significant challenge with Pierce Gaskell, world no. 5, in the semifinals. It was a class Mooljee comeback as he outwilled Gaskell despite a slow start, 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(3). He looked to be home free for the title at that point but was surprised by Garreth McCuskey in a straight-sets final. One good win followed by disappointment.

The next week, both Mooljee and Anil Mehul headed off to Mexico for the Acapulco 500. Mooljee was stunned by homestanding Andres Guardado 6-4, 6-4 in the first round, a match that like his first this year to Niklas he controlled most of. Mooljee lost all three break points though and goes down for the fourth time this year. This was a week where he had a real chance to make up some ground on the fading veterans above him in the rankings, and this is a tough loss. He's definitely not getting the fast start this season that I'd hoped for. Mehul coasted to the final, where he edged Gaskell 7-6(12), 6-4. The American was just good enough to give himself a chance, particularly in that epic first set, but Mehul got through for his 30th career professional title, 5th in the 500s.

Coming Up ...

A lot is on the line at Indian Wells and Miami. Girsh is still undefeated but he'll need to keep that going to have any chance of staying #1; last year he won both these events while Iglar lost in the semis. Mooljee needs a strong push over these next few weeks to get into the Top 16 for the clay season, an important goal for him.

[Brian Swartz]

Indian Wells Masters

Shyam Senepathy made a quick exit, losing to a German qualifier in three sets in his first match. The other four Sri Lankans all had a bye, and easily took care of their opponents in the second round. In fact, all of the seeds won at this stage, though there were a couple of close calls. The third round got a lot more testy, but most of the favorites still prevailed. Not all did though. Shreya Ujjaval came up short against Trulsen, 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-2, but it was a quality effort. Benda, McCuskey, Kinczllers, and a pair of the Herreras all were pushed hard before getting through. Fabricio Gilardino took advantage of the partisan crowd to get past Marcek, 7-6(1), 6-1, while Mooljee knocked off 14th-seeded Tobia Alberti, 6-3, 6-4, to move on as well.

In the fourth round, Anil Mehul put an abrupt ending to Prakash Mooljee's tournament, 6-0, 6-3. This was a disappointing result; Mooljee has developed enough to where he ought to be slightly favored here. Losing would be quite understandable, but not like this; he won less than half of his service points, dropping all four break points against him and all of his chances against the Mehul serve as well. He's clearly lost his confidence in being able to beat strong players at this point. Nothing to do but soldier on, but this year is not going well for him at all. Garreth McCuskey staged another three-set win, this time over Gaskell, while Benda had yet another early exit. Gustavo Caratti narrowly snuck by Federer in a tight third-set tiebreak. The old guard continues to fade away.

Girish Girsh was pushed to a third set for the first time in the quarterfinals, but continued his perfect start to the year. The match of the round was Mehul against Mugur Kinczllers; after splitting a pair of tiebreaks, Mehul edged past him in the third set, weathering 22 aces along the way. He's won 12 of 14 against the Italian, who would move up once again to a personal-best-tying 5th after the tournament despite the loss.

For what seems like the umpteenth time in a row, the Big 4 all moved into the semifinals once again. Girsh, still not quite in his best form, had just enough to get past Caratti in straight sets, while Mehul and Antonin Iglar had a classic in their 50th(no, that's not a typo) meeting. It was a tight one, and Mehul had the edge just by a hair ... but the Czech legend came up with the goods in the tiebreaks and snuck into the final narrowly, 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(3). A tough loss for Anil, as so many have been in this matchup over the years.

Girsh and Mehul squared off then in another match with the top ranking on the line. With 20 straight wins to start the year, Girsh came in as the favorite but got a rude awakening in being dismissed in straight sets. He won just nine points on Iglar's serve, and was fortunate the 6-3, 6-4 scoreline wasn't much worse. This was a shellacking. For the time being, Girsh's reign at the top is done(33 weeks). Meanwhile Iglar ties Sullivan for second all-time in Masters Shields with 32. That's not something you see happen every day. He's only about nine months younger than Gorritepe's record for the oldest man to win a Masters ... we'll see if he's still able to keep things going this time next year. For now though, at least, he's back on top.

Coming Up ...

We'll do it all over again in Miami. Prakash Mooljee has not gained any points since the start of the year, but the gap to him joining the Top 16 has narrowed to just 70 points as the aging vets ahead of him decline. More than ever, all he needs to one good tournament to make a bit of a jump ...

[Brian Swartz]

In the 16 months I've been running this I don't think I've gone this long between updates. I'll have to skip the usual Q1 rankings update. However, the thread must at this point be spammed with the results of various tournaments covering almost two months of time in the game world.

Miami Masters

An interesting start. Shyam Senepathy split a pair of tiebreaks with Russian Efim Lipovsky, who I knew well when he was younger, before easily taking the third. Any Masters-level win is a good event for Senepathy. He took only four games from Sampras in the next round though. All of the other four got off to good starts with relatively easy wins at least in their first matches after byes on the starting day. There were three other low seeds that departed early, none of them particularly noteworthy. However, it was a bit surprising to see Bjorn Benda bow out in a tight three-setter to American Joseph Skirrow.

Shreya Ujjaval, seeded 20th, made Iglar earn his third-round advance in a good 7-5, 6-4 effort. A big match for Prakash Mooljee at this stage as well ... he knocked off Garreth McCuskey 6-3, 7-6(3), avenging the loss earlier this year. In general it was not a good round of 32 for the higher seeds; the Peruvians did particularly poorly, while a couple of US players(Gilardino and Srbulovic) got further than expected. They are playing at home, and the Americans don't have any great players right now ... but they sure have a lot of good to excellent ones dotted all over the place as threats on a bad day for the favorites.

In the fourth round, Mooljee did not do as well as Ujjaval as he was obliterated 6-3, 6-1 by Antonin Iglar. I expected him to lose, but I was hoping for more of a fight. He was not pleased to see Marcek win after losing the first set for the second straight round(over Cirakovic), and in this group of matches the top seed won all of them. Girsh beat Andronikov and Mehul stopped Trulsen, both in fairly routine two-set affairs.

The quarterfinals then featured the top seven plus Cestmir Marcek, who seemed to be forgetting that he was about to turn 33 years old. He wasn't done yet either, rallying from a set down for the third straight time, this one over Gustavo Caratti. The world no. 3 is no minor scalp, even on a hardcourt. Took a tiebreak in the last set to get there. Impressive work. Girsh easily brushed aside Gaskell, but Anil Mehul was surprised 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-3 by Bourdet. An even match(both players won 99 points) but once again it was a case of seizing the moment. The top Frenchman is perhaps beginning to play up to his own press.

Iglar obliterated his countryman in the first semi as expected, and Girish Girsh stopped Theodore Bourdet in a closer second one, 7-6(0), 6-4. He didn't serve well, but his worlds-best game from the baseline was more than enough. Girsh went on to score a big win over a slightly-fatigued Iglar in the final, 7-6(5), 7-6(1). Could have gone either way but it was the correct result. That brings him to 7 Masters Shields, one shy of Mehul's career total. An important win to give him a chance to take back the top spot later in the year.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup, Group 2, Third Round
Sri Lanka vs. Italy, Indoors

The first half of the WTC season comes to a close here, with the winner taking the group.

Monday: G. Girsh d. T. Alberti, 6-3, 4-6, 6-2, 6-0
Tuesday: A. Mehul d. M. Kinczllers, 6-4, 7-6(4), 6-2
Wednesday: S. Boccasino/A. El Brazi d. S. Ujjaval/P. Mooljee, 6-3, 0-6, 6-4, 2-6, 9-7
Thursday: G. Girsh d. M. Kinczllers, 7-5, 7-5, 6-1
Friday: A. Mehul d. T. Alberti, 1-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-7(3), 7-5

Sri Lanka defeats Italy, 4-1!!

This was closer and more dramatic than most of our ties end up being. Could have been 3-2 or we could have swept them, but in the end we get the job done and get some good experience out of it. We're still #1 of course, and most important was the quarterfinal draw for later in the year.

The USA with start against Germany, with an interesting Czech Republic-Italy matchup completing the top half. I'm pleased with being on the opposite side as the Americans. We get a potentially testy clay matchup with Spain -- we're far better than they are but the dirt surface will maximize their chances to pull the shocking upset. Assuming we get through that, it'll be Argentina or Sweden next for us. That's the final eight.

[Brian Swartz]

Monte Carlo

Iglar wisely took the week off, but all the rest of the top players were here at the annual 'not-quite-a-masters'. That was just enough of an opening to get Mooljee seeded. Senepathy didn't make it through qualifying, so there were just the four of us. Shreya Ujjaval smashed a qualifier in the first round, and Mooljee did the same. Girsh cruised through his second-round match, while Mehul had a bit of a test from the rising Srbulovic but won in two. I was, however, fairly disgusted to see Prakash Mooljee blow an early lead and fall to the pride of Uzbekistan, Khasan Zakirov, 5-7, 6-3, 6-3. He's lost all three times they've met on clay so I guess I shouldn't be that surprised ... but I still think he should have won this. A number of other seeds departed early as always happens on clay, with Kinczllers, victimized by John Condon, the most notable as he came in 4th in the draw.

In the third round, I was rather stunned to see Ujjaval easily send Gaskell packing ... he's moving up in the world again. The rest was all pretty much as expected. The quarterfinals featured three players from Sri Lanka ... on clay, not the best surface for some of us. That's quite an achievement. Ujjaval was knocked out by Girish Girsh, not at all a surprise; Mehul won another close one against Bourdet, just on a different surface than a month ago; and on the bottom of the bracket it was Caratti and Benda moving through. As usual.

The 19th meeting between Girsh and Mehul was a bit of a surprise; recently turned 31, Anil still has a few tricks left and pulled a 6-4, 6-7(4), 7-6(2) upset. Caratti required a third-set tiebreak against Bjorn Benda, who is seemingly revitalized by this tournament back on his favorite surface.

Anil Mehul managed to make a good match of it in the final, but the expected result ensued and Gustavo Caratti claimed his third Masters shield.

[Brian Swartz]

May

I'll use this to catchup on all the small events that happened in this period and leading up. Ritwik Dudwadkar had a couple of tournaments, both tier-3 juniors. In Tashkent, the second week of the Miami masters, he won in singles but lost in the quarters in doubles. Just a few weeks later during Monte Carlo he played again due to the schedule -- it was the best week for him to have a chance at another victory by far. He used it, smashing all comers including Ritwik Suksma in the singles final. A close runner-up finish in doubles was the only disappointment, and a very minor one. These wins have him started moving up again, into the mid-80s in the rankings. He'll be taking a good amount of time off now though.

In the professional ranks, the top event the week after Monte Carlo was the Barcelona 500. I was surprised to see Caratti enter here -- he's going to burn himself out. Mooljee was the 4th seed, and Ujjaval the 7th, so we had a significant presence as well. Naturally, Girsh and Mehul had played enough to take a couple weeks off heading into the Madrid/Rome double feature.

It was easy sailing at first, but in the third round Ujjaval was surprised by Spaniard Rui Padilla ... who we'll be seeing in the WTC quarters ... in a three-set match. The favorable crowd and clay expertise proved just enough for him. Mooljee had all he wanted in the quarterfinals against Frenchman Hugo Deallavadale, splitting two tense tiebreaks before winning the third set. That looked like the wake-up match, but he stumbled in a straight-sets defeat against Condon in the semifinals. I thought he'd go one further, and then lose to Caratti who won as the prohibitive favorite.

Coming Up ...

So that's where we are now, Madrid is actually finished and the Rome masters underway, I'll report on both of those once they are done. Mooljee is still fighting to get himself in the Top 16, Girsh is close behind Iglar in the race for #1, and Mehul is hanging around but trailing the tired Caratti for third. Prakash continues to have a disappointing year overall, while the top two players are doing about as well as I'd expect all things considered.

[Brian Swartz]

The clay masters had some surprises in store for the tour. Here's how it went down ...

Madrid Masters

Shyam Senepathy qualified, and was blasted, winning four games against Andres Guardado. Ujjaval did better, handing out a double-bagel to his qualifier opponent in the first round, while Mooljee achieved one himself. Poilblan continues his 'meh' prime, as the only seed to lose in the first round -- three sets to Rui Padilla, a dangerous Spaniard on this surface.

There were some stunning second-round results, and three of them involved Sri Lanka players. Girsh had a boring, dominant win. The others were not bored though. Antonin Iglar got dismissed 6-2, 7-6(4) by Mooljee in just their second career meeting! Everything was on Mooljee's side here, match fitness, he's quite a bit better on clay than the Czech, but anytime you beat the world no. 1 it's a cause for celebration. We'll see if this begins a trend ... Shreya Ujjaval had an upset as well, though less surprising of one, knocking off Roger Federer who usually does poorly here, in straight sets. On the other end of the spectrum, Anil Mehul was stunned by Zakirov 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. That's the second upset he's had against us in as many tournaments. Starting to not like that guy, though it's certainly been a good month for him. No two ways about the match either, he was clearly the better player on this day. The last time Mehul lost his first match in a Masters was only a year ago at Monte Carlo, but it was still a disappointment. A far cry from four years ago, when he was the champion here ...

The elder statesman was gone but we still had three left into the round of 16. It was an eventful but ultimately straightforward day with no upsets. Ujjaval was stopped by Prakash Mooljee 5-7, 6-2, 6-4, in what was rather surprisingly their first actual tournament meeting. Fairly close by the numbers, but Mooljee apparently controlled the action after dropping that first set. Girish Girsh had his first challenge as well against Condon, and was fairly fortunate to advance 6-7(1), 7-5, 6-4. Gaskell(over Cirakovic) and Kinczllers(over T. Herrera) both were pushed as well but made it through.

The quarterfinals then had seven players in the Top 10 ... and Mooljee. He wasn't finished yet, decisively dispatching Pierce Gaskell in the first match. Girsh's participation ended here though, courtesy of Agustin Herrera. He's become Peru's top player over the course of the past year, and was a finalist here last year. Something about Madrid, beyond just the clay, seems to agree with him. Benda and Caratti, to the surprise of exactly nobody, filled the other two spots.

I thought Mooljee might have a chance against Bjorn Benda despite the surface for their third career meeting. I was very wrong; he won five games. Still, a Masters semifinal! He's never gotten past the last 16 in any big event, so this is unquestionably the high water mark for him, a potential 'breakthrough' moment. It also puts him, temporarily I thought(more on this later), above Marcek and into the Top 16 for Rome(and beyond?). Doesn't erase the disappointments leading up to it, but he made himself an opportunity here by beating two of the world's top five players. The second match was much more of a surprise, as Herrera beat the tired Gustavo Caratti in a tough match that went the distance. Here was the first example of the Argentine's insistence on playing nearly everywhere during the clay season catching up to him. Little doubt he wins this if not worn out.

Benda had a shot here at becoming the world's oldest Masters champion ever, but Agustin Herrera dominated, allowing just nine points on his serve in a 6-3, 6-3 final. With none of the world's top eight making the final, quite a strange eventuality, Agustin went one better than last year and snagged his first Masters. His progression, still very much in his best years at 26, will definitely bear watching.


Rome Masters

Not far away on the same continent, the same cast of characters assembled themselves just a couple days later for the final clay tune-up. Senepathy wasn't able to qualify, but otherwhise the first day went much the same ... seeded in the last(16th) spot this time, Mooljee had another easy first-round win.

Iglar started off this week by ... losing his first match again!! This time it was Juan de los Santos doing the damage. He's made his share of upsets the last couple of years, but for the top player in the world, even though he's not much of a clay-courter, to lose his first match in back-to-back Masters .... this was stunning. By doing so, he guaranteed that Girsh would ascend to the top spot, as he'd won Rome last year. A stunning turn of events after the way he'd surged to the top spot over the last several months. Easy wins for a couple of Sri Lanka players, while Shreya Ujjaval had the misfortune of playing Mehul in his second-round match. He made it close, but was defeated 6-4, 7-6(5). Another Frenchman left early, this time Bourdet(to Sava Cirakovic, who is quietly piling up solid results).

Girsh and Mehul had easy third-round matches, while Prakash Mooljee and Gustavo Caratti both came into their encounter tired. Caratti more so, but he had enough for a 6-4, 7-5 win. I had Mooljee in doubles last week in Madrid to get some matches, not expecting him to make it to the semifinals! So losing here is not such a bad thing, as it will give him a better chance to be rested for the FO. Beating the best clay player in the world was a bit much of an ask. Match of the day was Cirakovic over Thiago Herrera; a breadstick both ways followed by a tight tiebreak to decide it.

Straightforward quarterfinals for the most part, with Cirakovic this year's surprise entrant. He went out quickly to Caratti, Benda beat Alberti. Girsh had to deal with last week's champ Agustin Herrera. Possibly because he was better prepared physically, he came through with a solid straight-sets win. Anil Mehul had a rough go against Elias Trulsen, usually a non-entity on clay, but rallied for a 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 victory. Nice recovery for him after last week's early exit.

In the first semi, Gustavo Caratti easily handled Benda despite the fatigue issues, his 8th straight win in that matchup over the last two years, all of them coming on clay. Girish Girsh avenged his recent defeat to Mehul in two sets; the first was close, but after that it was over. In the final, the Argentine was just too spent to give Girsh a real effort. He lost all three break chances he faced, had as many double faults as aces, and in general nearly donated the championship. A rather anticlimactic end, but preparation is often half the battle. Girsh reclaims the #1 spot in style, taking his first Rome title.


Coming Up ...

Everyone has a week off going into the French Open. It looks like Mooljee will narrowly hold the 16th spot going into the second Slam of the year, though he does lose the Nice 250 title from last season. That will give him a good chance to improve on his third-round finishes there and at Wimbledon, and build some traction. The last couple weeks he appeared to really start finding his game, taking good advantage of his opportunities. If that continues better things could be ahead than we saw in the last few months before. Girsh will hang onto the top spot no matter what happens, but with Caratti definitively vulnerable right now due to overtaxing his body, he's got to be targeting making a run at the title. Mehul has a good chance to overtake the Argentine for third in the rankings if he falters as well. Ujjaval is presently at a career-high 21st and will look to keep pushing upwards as well.

I think this is the most wide-open, because of Caratti, French Open that I've yet seen. There are at least a half-dozen players that could be serious threats.

[Brian Swartz]

A lot of catching up to do here again.

2047 Roland Garros

Once again Sri Lanka has five in the draw. Shyam Senepathy exited quickly, taking only six games in the three sets he played against Phillipe Besson, an improving 22-year-old Swiss player that could be noteworthy in a year or two. The other four were all seeded 20th or better, and got through the first round easily. A couple of seeds departed stage left; American Johnny Browne(27th), and the consistently-disappointing veteran Marcelo Herrera(24th). The next round brought more of the same. McCuskey barely survived a five-set scare, and Andre Herrera(PER) beat one of the lower seeds but that doesn't really qualify as an upset here as he was among the more dangerous floaters.

The third round started to heat things up a bit. Girsh lost a set to Khasan Zakirov, but his run would not be derailed long despite the challenger's recent surge. Shreya Ujjaval had a true epic against no. 7 Theodore Bourdet, eventually taking down the top-ranked Frenchman 4-6, 6-2, 5-7, 6-3, 10-8!! Bourdet blasted 27 aces, but Ujjaval was consistently a bit better in the rallies, and it was just barely enough for him to come back from a set down twice and outlast his opponent in a long 5th set. Garreth McCuskey survived a second straight five-setter, this one against his declining countryman Sampras. Prakash Mooljee met up with Sava Cirakovic, just two spots below him in the rankings. This figured to be a real pick-em match, but Mooljee had the better of it. Unfortunately, his best play was mostly concentrated in one set. In the last two, he narrowly came up short in a 6-3, 1-6, 7-5, 7-6(4) defeat ... despite out-pointing his foe 146-132. Yet another example this year of a match Mooljee should have won, but didn't, and he only manages to equal last season's result here. Another good match was between Agustin Herrera and Zourab Andronikov, with Herrera narrowly able to advance despite losing a pair of tiebreakers.

Girsh and Ujjaval both got back on track with straight-set wins in the fourth round. Antonin Iglar dropped a set for the first time against Cirakovic, but came through in four. Mugur Kinczllers had to go five to beat T. Herrera, and the Peruvians all dropped out when Agustin lost to Davide Poilblan. Then there was Anil Mehul going up against Benda, and getting his 29th win over the German in four sets there.

Six of the top eight then made the quarterfinals, with Ujjaval and Poilblan the party-crashers. Three Sri Lankans in the final eight; not bad. Girish Girsh ended Ujjaval's push 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-1, aided by the younger players typical over-playing. Caratti lost his first set of the tournament against Pierce Gaskell, but dismissed the American in four. Iglar came through against Kinczllers in a high-quality four-set match, and Mehul overcame an ineffective serve to save 14 of 16 BPs against Poilblan.

So once again, the Big Four form the semifinals. Yawn. Girsh played well enough to have a chance against the tiring Gustavo Caratti, but missed on all four of his break chances and bowed out 6-4, 7-5, 6-4. As for Anil Mehul, he laid a complete egg in his semifinal, getting annihilated with only six games won against Iglar. So it was that the Czech legend looked to join the annals of over-30 Slam champions ... but he didn't show up for the title match. Surprisingly, despite his fatigue, Caratti thumped him 6-3, 6-2, 6-1 for his third straight RG title ... one more Slam than Girsh has to date, by the way. I didn't think he could do it being this worn out, esp. after the results in the clay Masters, but perhaps Caratti is just that much better than everyone else on this surface. More likely, he simply found his best game when he needed it most. Either way, he did what he needed to finish another strong clay campaign.

[Brian Swartz]

June

This year is a little different due to the schedule change, which I didn't realize until it was almost too late. The main difference is Wimbledon getting pushed back a week, meaning three grass weeks in the leadup. In the middle of that, two of the 250 events have been bumped to 500s, Halle and Queens. As it worked out, I had one player each of the interim weeks, so there was a tournament constantly going on for me.

First up, Ritwik Dudwadkar was in Tunis. He won his third straight tier-3, while coming in runner-up in doubles once again as well. None of the singles matches were particularly close. It's starting to look like he's ready for a step up, but there will be at least one, probably two more events at this level first. He's starting to gradually inch up the rankings now at 80th following this win, as things stabilize going into the second half of the year.

Then came the 500s, and Prakash Mooljee entered Halle as the 4th seed there. His goal here was to assure that he stayed ahead of the pack and in the Top 16 going into Wimbledon and the year's second half. The top four all made it to the semifinals, which was good enough to give Mooljee a bit of a bump. There he played the match of the tournament against second seed Bjorn Benda, who is under new management that is overplaying him a bit. Somebody was bound to pick him up eventually. After dropping the first set in a tiebreak, Mooljee found himself headed for another tough loss, down 5-2 in the second-set breaker and two points from defeat. He proceeded to reel off five straight to take the set, and eventually the match 6-7(4), 7-6(5), 6-3! It was a deserved win, but at only 2 of 11 on break chances it nearly got away from him. Benda served well when it mattered with 18 aces to 14 and no double faults, but needed one or two more big ones to close it out and didn't get them. After winning a long first-set tiebreak in the final, Mooljee closed out Mugur Kinczllers to claim his first 500-level title, six months ahead of Mehul and Girsh both in this milestone! A pair of wins over Top-10 opponents, and his best-ever single-week haul in terms of points. This pretty much ensures he'll stay up in the Top 16, and can set his sights higher now.

The final in-between week saw Anil Mehul head to the new 250 event in Antalya, Turkey. The last three matches were competitive, and he dropped a set to Rui Padilla(ESP) in the quarters, but Mehul claimed his expected 7th 250-level title and first on grass.

[Brian Swartz]

2047 Wimbledon

Last chance here for everyone to get themselves positioned for the 'stretch run', with the second big break coming up afterwards. With the schedule change though it's a week shorter, which will definitely impact preparation for the hectic push leading into the USO.

Another straight-sets first-round exit for Shyam Senepathy against another unseeded Spaniard. His progression definitely appears to have stalled, just a bit later than I thought it would. Grass tends to make for long, competitive matches, and nine first-round encounters went the distance. 19th-seeded Sava Cirakovic was a surprise first-round victim, going down in four sets to Joseph Skirrow(USA), a fairly dangerous player who pops up every now and then. Thiago Herrera was barely able to get by Djurdje Moicevic, who is still forging his way, 6-4 in the 5th. Another early exit, this time in straight sets, for Marcelo Herrera, while Khasan Zakirov(22nd), also had a disappointing early end. Tobia Alberti(ITA, 14th) was the most notable of two more upset victims in the second round, and there were a couple of other close calls. Sri Lanka's quartet however kept advancing without incident.

In the third, Gustavo Caratti, who always seems to struggle here, just got by the challenge of Srbulovic in a tight four-set match. Pierce Gaskell was not so lucky, as the world no. 5 exited in a four-set loss to countryman Johnny Browne(29th). The Sri Lankan quartet continued to move on, all of them in straight sets once again. All eyes here though were on Luc Janin, as the Canadian prodigy had made the round of 32 for the first time at a Slam though just 20 years old. He was routinely dispatched by Theodore Bourdet who is well above his level at this point, but it's another forward step for the most exciting young player the sport has seen in probably a decade.

Girsh continued to cruise in the fourth round, Federer his latest victim. Caratti was knocked out though, by Davide Poilblan in four sets; he has only made the second week here once. Prakash Mooljee sensed a real opportunity now, but there would be no more easy hurdles. Theodore Bourdet was a major threat; Mooljee is a bit better overall but Bourdet has one of the best serves in the world, a major asset on the grass. Their first match was a classic, and the Frenchman managed only 13 aces and was outplayed somewhat. He still got through though, 6-3, 3-6, 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-2. That fourth set was Mooljee's chance to break through, and he couldn't do it. Yet another big match in which he was the better player, but still lost. They are piling up. Five double faults were crucial here. More surprisingly was the match between the other two players: Anil Mehul and Shreya Ujjaval. Ujjaval is a fine grass player, but a comprehensive 6-4, 6-4, 6-2 dismissal of the world no. 4 was still quite shocking. It's the worst result here for four-time champ Mehul in seven years, and perhaps a sign that things have come to a head for him. A stringent battle between Mugur Kinczllers and Garreth McCuskey had three tiebreaks, and eventually ended with Kinczllers getting through in five.

Five of the top eight made the quarterfinals, with three 'surprise' entrants. Girish Girsh got his first real test against Elias Trulsen, a rematch of last year's final coming a couple rounds earlier this year. They traded tiebreaks, but then Girsh asserted himself to take care of business in four sets. Davide Poilblan took the opportunity afforded him and dismissed T. Herrera to reach his first Slam semifinal, while the last two matches both went the distance. Lots of tense moments. Theodore Bourdet joined Poilblan in the last four with a mild upset over Iglar, 6-4, 6-7(4), 4-6, 6-3, 7-5. That match could have gone either way, as could have the last one pitting Kinczllers against Ujjaval. The Italian was able to even the match in a critical, long second-set tiebreak, and eventually managed to get through 4-6, 7-6(8), 3-6, 6-3, 6-4. Ujjaval had him on the ropes but just couldn't put him away. Much like the Mooljee loss, this one came down to the value of an elite serve. Kinczllers blasted 27 aces, while Ujjaval had to grind more and it wasn't quite enough.

The first semifinal was a strange one. Girish Girsh dominated two of the first three sets, but let his guard down every time and was fortunate to survive. The scoreline was 6-2, 6-7(8), 6-1, 6-7(5), 9-7. If he was able to take either one of those tiebreak sets, this is one-sided match. In fact it ended up being very much one by the numbers(200-164 pts) yet he barely one, even with saving all 10 break chances against him. Very weird match all the way around, and he nearly gave it away to Davide Poilblan. Kinczllers cruised through against Bourdet to reach his first Slam final in the second encounter.

The final was pretty one-sided and anti-climactic. Girsh learned his lesson from the semfinals, and was pretty dominant in a 6-2, 7-6(1), 6-4 win. It's his second Wimbledon in a row, third Slam overall, and ensures he stays at #1 in the rankings.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Girish Girsh(SRI, 28) -- 13,330

With two of the year's first three Slams, Girsh has fought off the challenge from Iglar for the moment at least, and reasserted himself at the top.

2. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 30) -- 11,980

Poor results in the clay Masters and an earlier-than-usual Wimbledon departure have quite possibly ended Iglar's time as a serious challenger to the #1 ranking

3. Gustavo Caratti(ARG, 27) -- 9,680

Tireless, dominant on clay, weak on grass. It all adds up to Caratti staying as a solid #3, but he'll need to do better to move higher.

4. Anil Mehul(SRI, 31) -- 9,100

For now, Mehul is still hanging around as a threat to Caratti's position, and far better than the field. Cracks are forming though.

5. Mugur Kinczllers(ITA, 28) -- 4,990

The Wimbledon run to his first final was just enough for Kinczllers to reach 5th again.

6. Theodore Bourdet(FRA, 26) -- 4,980

An interesting ebb and flow with Kinczllers is developing. Do either of them have what it takes to push closer to Mehul in the second half?

7. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 31) -- 3,980

It looks like his time to decline may have finally come. A solid Top 5 fixture for years, Gaskell is still the top American but that may only last for months longer.

8. Davide Poilblan(FRA, 27) -- 3,570

Better late than never? With a RG quarterfinal and Wimbledon semi in his recent resume, Poilblan has finally made the jump to the first page.

9. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 33) -- 3,500

New management, and still doing just enough to be relevant.

10. Agustin Herrera(PER, 26) -- 3,495

Peru's new top player with Thiago mostly out of the picture, and he probably remains about here for a little while.

The gap to 11th is over 400 points right now, where McCuskey and Trulsen hang out. Neither of them looks a threat to jump in right now, but the younger players are starting to flex their muscles. Mooljee leads a number of players(Ujjaval, Cirakovic, Zakirov, Gilardino all in the Top 25) in his age bracket, and a year or two younger the generation after them is also starting to break through(Tristan Benitez is 26th, with Johnny Browne, Tiosav Srbulovic, and Juan de los Santos all in order behind him at 21). And then there's Luc Janin, 20 and a half and already 36th. I'll take a look at these players and their prospects in more detail at the end of the year, but right now I'd say the tour is set for the biggest wholesale changing of the guard over the next couple years that it's seen in my involvement with it. With four 30-somethigns in the Top 10 and three others in the next 11 players, along with a lot of players in their upper 20s, this whole apple cart is about to be overturned. It's only just starting.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the World Tour Finals
Initial, Post-Wimbledon Edition

In

Girish Girsh -- 8710
Gustavo Caratti -- 7300

After looking at the math, it's clear that Girsh basically has a lock on the top spot this year. The lead over Caratti is only modest, of course, but the Argentine hasn't shown the game to be a serious hardcourt threat -- the price of his clay dominance. And Iglar is further back than I expected. You might say that the Era of Girsh has begun. I expect it to be at least a year, quite possibly two before he's challenged again ... by a younger Sri Lankan.


Probable

Antonin Iglar -- 5180
Anil Mehul -- 4630
Mugur Kinczllers -- 3750
Theodore Bourdet -- 3400

Wimbledon basically separated Kinzllers and Bourdet from the pack. They'd have to stumble badly not to qualify now. Iglar still has some work to do, and he'd basically have to run the table now to have any chance at #1. I think that ship has sailed. Meanwhile, you can see that Mehul's lead over the rest of the field here is not nearly what it once was. It's not a foregone conclusion that he even stays at #4 through the end of the year, though he probably will have enough yet to make that happen for one more season.


Contenders

Agustin Herrera -- 2855
Bjorn Benda -- 2740
-------------------------------

I was sure Benda was done in terms of being a top-8 player, but look at this! He could very well get passed up yet, but a pair of Slam QFs and semis or better in all three clay Masters have been enough to give him a solid position at this juncture.


Long Shots

Davide Poilblan -- 2335
Pierce Gaskell -- 2330
Elias Trulsen -- 2140
Shreya Ujjaval -- 2120
Tobia Alberti -- 2105
Thiago Herrera -- 2020
Prakash Mooljee -- 2000
Roger Federer -- 1900
Garreth McCuskey -- 1830

Here is the rest of the story. Pretty clear that Gaskell is past it, as he can manage no better than this even with favorable draws ... which will go away soon if he can't find another fountain of youth. The majority of the names here, as always, are pretenders. Some have a chance though. Davide Poilblan will get favorable draws and is uniquely positioned, like the Frenchmen were last year, to make noise at Paris at the end when all the chips are down. Shreya Ujjaval has a trio of Slam quarterfinals this year ... but has done next to nothing in the Masters events. Those trends won't co-exist permanently. Prakash Mooljee will be objectively the best player in the world by the end of the year, but he's got to stop losing matches he should win. There's still time for him, but it'll take a couple big runs or consistent solid play, given the number of players he needs to pass and the sizable gap to overcome. The others are all past their best tennis and are merely the best of those who won't make it.

If I were a betting man, I'd say Ujjaval and Mooljee have their moments but come up well short(hopefully not, but that's how it looks from here). Poilblan I think will have enough to make it in over Benda, so I am predicting one switch, but this could go a lot of ways. Agustin Herrera didn't do diddly squat in the year-end hardcourts last year, and this season so far has only a QF at Indian Wells. He's 'propped up' right now by the Madrid title. There's definitely at least the two spots to be had, if anyone has the drive to go get them.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Note that these are all compared to the start of the year, since I didn't do a first-quarter review.

Girish Girsh -- 1st singles(unchanged). 50 wins is a fine mark by the end of Wimbledon. Two masters and two slams have been added to his total this year, with only four defeats. He's on the decline, but is fortunate that so are all the major challengers. Bourdet is basically at his peak, but literally the rest of the top-ranking dozen players in the world are all getting worse. This is the definition of a weak era emerging, at least temporarily, and Girish is the beneficiary. The next year or two is legacy-making time for him; winning as many big titles as he can to enhance his resume. He's the top dog, period.

Anil Mehul -- 4th singles(unchanged). Mehul is still close behind Caratti for the third spot, but that won't last long. If he can't defend his US Open title a little over a month from now, and there's no evidence right now that he's got that left in him(it would be a record for oldest Slam champion by a few months if he did, and he has yet to reach the final of any big event this year save Monte Carlo*), any hope of moving up again will fade. It's time to start saying good-bye to Sri Lanka's first and so far best great player, and begin watching his sad decline.

Prakash Mooljee -- 19th to 13th singles, 197th to 202nd doubles. There seem to signs of Mooljee getting more consistent, but he needs to start winning the close matches in which he has the upper hand his fair share of the time(say, three out of four or so). When he does that, he'll start pushing upwards more consistently. Nobody close behind him is a threat, and the dozen players ahead of him are at least three years older. Lacking a bit of the endurance and longevity of his predessors, it's all the more important that Prakash seize the moment. He's just 1-4 against the Top 4 players this year(beat Iglar once), but 4-1 against those in the 5-8 range. Everyone else? 27-7. That's far too many losses against players he should be beating. He's been good enough to be a Top 5 player and soon better than that, but along with fighting up through the draws and rankings he is just missing too many opportunities.

Shreya Ujjaval -- 29th to 17th singles, 52nd to 53rd doubles. The three straight Slam quarterfinals are the big story ... esp. when Mooljee has yet to reach his first! It's not out of the question that both players could be Top 10 by the end of the year. Consistency is the issue in both cases. Ujjaval probably never goes higher than about 5th, but a year from now we could be talking about half of the Tour Finals being Sri Lanka players. No question this is the Golden Age for tennis around here, the likes of which will never be seen again.

Shyam Senepathy -- 85th to 80th singles. At one point Senepathy was up to 71st, but he appears to have stalled. Many players do at this stage; some get through it, others don't. I'm not sure how much more Senepathy has in him, but he hasn't peaked yet. I see him cracking the Top 50 at least eventually.

Ritwik Dudwadkar -- 100th to 77th juniors. 28-1 in a brilliant year so far, including a just-completed fourth tier-3 title in which he was only seeded 5th, but beat several others ranked somewhat ahead of him. Only one match was close. Dudwadkar in the second half of this season is positioning himself for his final junior year. Roughly two-thirds of those ahead of him will turn pro, and most of those who won't are ranked fairly close to him(35th or lower for the vast majority). He'll soon try to make the jump to tier-2 and push his way upwards as much as he can so that he can play in the most productive, lucrative events successfully next season.

Manager Ranking -- 2nd(unchanged), 43.1k to 44.6k points. oprice is still playing out the string with Iglar, and his total is crashing; I've almost caught him and will assuredly do so by the end of the year.

[Brian Swartz]

July

The only event on the schedule the next couple weeks was the Washington 500. Prakash Mooljee was seeded fourth here, and hoping for a deep run to replace his Olympics total from last year and continue to move up. After a bye, he lost only two games against a qualifier, and then played ninth-seed Tioslav Srbulovic in the third round. It was an evenly played match, but Mooljee was beaten 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-5. Srbulovic is also on the rise, a hardcourt specialist who is an excellent athlete, and playing in front of his home crowd. All those are fine excuses and Mooljee has no reason to panic, but it was just an extension of the disappointments this year. Once again, he was slightly the better player but went just 2 of 14 on break chances(Srbulovic was 4 of 8). And that was the match. Again. The American made it to the final before losing to Kinczllers, and I expect he'll make a significant charge with a lot of home crowds and favorable surfaces coming up.

[JonInMiddleGA]

So, at the end of his descent, does Mehul turn into an uber trainer ?

(I never did grasp most of this game tbh, but that's a reasonable question if I got even one or two parts figured out right)

[Brian Swartz]

Yeah that's the next step for him. Probably in a year or two, he'll turn his attention to doubles and working towards becoming a top trainer.

[Brian Swartz]

Canada Masters

No showing from Senepathy this week, as he lost in qualifying. 11-seeded Elias Trulsen continued his fall, the latest to get knocked out early by Tiosav Srbulovic, straight-sets in the first round. McCuskey departed in the second round, but he wasn't the big surprise. That was reserved for Zourab Andronikov, who made Anil Mehul's first match his last here, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3. The Georgian blasted 20 aces, and was a perfect 4-for-4 on break points; it was basically the best he could be expected to play. Mehul wasn't terrible, in fact you could argue he was slightly better, but fell just short. The last time he lost his first match in a Masters before this year was eight seasons ago; he's done it twice now(Madrid as well). So yeah ... not a good look. Prakash Mooljee was narrowly able to advance, ironically by the same three-set scoreline but he was the one with the comeback against Cestmir Marcek. Shouldn't have been that close, but the aging Czech was more prepared at this early stage and has always been his best on the hardcourts.

Srbulovic nabbed another pelt in the third round, taking out Bourdet. No small matter beating the world no. 6, this one in straight sets as well. Looks like he's making a serious push. There were four closely contested matches this round, and only Iglar had a glorified walk-over, losing just one game. Girsh had his first test in a pretty close against Thiago Herrera, going to 7-5 in the second set to dismiss him. Davide Poilblan rallied after a bad first set to take out Kinczllers, and Shreya Ujjaval dropped the first set in a breaker before coming back to knock out Benda. Mooljee was less fortunate, being Andronikov's next opponent. 6-4, 4-6, 6-4, another tight one and while the serve count was not as lopsided(due at least in part to Mooljee being a much faster player than Mehul at his age), the result was the same. A very tight match, evenly played, and once again the Sri Lankan competitor couldn't hang in the break points(3 of 8 compared to 4 of 6). Both of those back to back are a little hard to take, and a shot at a big quarterfinal goes by the boards for Mooljee.

Two unseeded players along with 16th-seeded Ujjaval made it to the final eight ... definitely not the usual suspects as the youth movement continues. Girsh flattened Gaskell as one might expect, Caratti dismissed Srbulovic who might have thought himself to have a chance but rather surprisingly won just eight points on the Argentine's serve. Another straight-set win by Iglar over Poilblan, and Andronikov made it three straight tight wins over Sri Lankans with a 7-6(3), 6-7(2), 6-2 win over Shreya Ujjaval, the only match in the round to go the distance. Ugh.

Top 3 ... and no. 20 for the semis. Which one of these things is not like the other ... well, it was time for order to be restored. Girish Girsh didn't have a walk but was able to take out Caratti in two long, tight sets. Iglar was pushed a bit but did the same to Andronikov, and the top two players headed to the final. Antonin Iglar looked pretty good this week and he needed this one badly ... yet failed to produce a single break chance and was trounced 6-3, 6-2. Sure looks like a statement by Girsh that his supremacy is secure from here. A 9th Masters is the most in Sri Lanka history, Mehul included(he won eight). Not bad.

I'm also interested to see how well Srbulovic and Andronikov back up their fine performances here.

[Brian Swartz]

Cincinatti Masters

The American players figure to be even more of a pain in neck here and of course at the USO -- hopefully we wouldn't have to meet them early. Shyam Senepathy was bounced in his first qualifying match, continuing a very unimpressive year for him. There were more early first-round upsets this time around. How would Andronikov do? How does 6-3, 6-0 over no. 9 Poilblan sound? Yikes. As for Srbulovic ... well, Mooljee drew him, which was not exactly what I was looking for. Prakash took care of business though, 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-2, a very tough first-rounder but he won almost half of his return points, just battering the American into eventual submission. Best he's looked in a while from the baseline, though the serve wasn't that great. Then there was wild-card Robert Jerrold knocking out no. 15 Alberti, 13-11 in a third-set tiebreak. No way that happens without the crowd on his side. Garreth McCuskey needed a lot more help than that, getting dismissed easily by Tomas Niklas and only taking five games. It appears clear the McCuskey, theoretically close to his prime at least at 27, is a sinking ship at this point.

And that was just the first round. Looked like Cincy was off to a wild start. Mooljee dropped another tiebreaker in the next round to another American, Johnny Browne, but would lose just one game the rest of the way. Girsh and Mehul got through easily to get their teeth into the event, as did Ujjaval. Elsewhere though the upsets just kept on coming. Thiago Herrera outlasted Caratti who seems to have this Jekkyl & Hyde thing with hardcourt events; he pushed Girsh to his toughest match last week and now he loses to a declining player outside of the Top 10. It was very close, 6-7(6), 6-4, 7-5, but still. Another quick exit for Kinczllers, tight 3-setter here as well to US wild-card Jake Jolland. Benda was beaten by youngish Hugo Jurco, and Trulsen left early as well courtesy of yet another American WC, aging Radek Smitala. It was nearly an epidemic out there.

Third round, and only three US players left; Gaskell and two wild cards. Weird stuff. Girish Girsh tangled with Prakash Mooljee, basically the worst possible draw at this stage for both of them. Girsh won 7-5, 6-3, and demonstrated that he's still clearly superior. He really shouldn't be, but the younger player lacks the confidence right now. Close ones for the other players, Mehul over Smitala in one and Shreya Ujjaval with a very nice win for him against 5-seeded Theodore Bourdet. Jolland's ridiculous run continued with another narrow 3-set win over Agustin Herrera.

I don't know if I've ever seen a wild-card in the quarterfinals of a big event. If I have it's been a long time. He almost kept it going, splitting a pair of tiebreaks with Thiago Herrera before finally running out of gas in the third. Girsh had himself an unusually tough time with Pierce Gaskell, dropping the first set and needing a third-set breaker to send him packing. That was almost a stunning upset, despite his dominance of the middle set. Antonin Iglar was given a surprisingly hard time by unseeded Tomas Niklas, possibly his heir apparent in the Czech hierarchy, as their match went to 7-5 in the third. The final match was the second of this tournament between a pair of Sri Lanka players, with Anil Mehul just managing to rally to knock out Ujjaval, 2-6, 7-6(3), 7-5. Another case of experience taking out a better, but younger, challenger.

In the semis, Girsh demolished Herrera, losing four games. Mehul held up well against Iglar through two sets which they split, but then fell apart and was bageled in the third. So, a week later, same contestants for the championship match. It may well have been the best one that Girsh and Iglar have ever played. In a best-of-three it's hard to have a tougher road than the 6-7(9), 7-5, 7-6(7) scoreline they turned in here, but again Girish Girsh came through. Quite satisfying win, and he was a hair better but only a hair. Could easily have lost it.

[Brian Swartz]

2047 US Open

The final Slam comes with everyone in action, following a week off. The finish to the year always appears much clearer, and this is usually the last opportunity for players(looking at Mooljee here) to make a big splash.

Opening Rounds

Shyam Senepathy looked better than he has recently in a straight-sets win in the first round. Competition wasn't much but a Slam win is a Slam win -- it's just the third of his career so it's something. Elsewhere it was largely the usual first-round yawn-fest. Worth noting were 20-year-old Luc Janin getting his first seed at 31st ... that's just astonishing ... and an interesting match between low-ranking US players that went the distance, with four tiebreaks. The fifth was a bagel. No, I'm not even going to try to explain that. Naturally, the guy who bageled won the match. Last week's stunner, Jake Jolland, was the only player to knock out a seed at the first time of asking, eliminating (25)Tristan Benitez in four. Ujjaval had a tough time of it against Phillipe Besson who shows up here and there, but got through in four.

A surprising number of long matches were in store for the second round. Federer was pushed to five, and (28) Simon Davila(ESP) almost lost to an unheralded American(7-6(6) in the fifth there). Senepathy bowed out quickly to Andronikov, winning just four games. Pretty clear where he stands. Thiago Herrera, seeded 11th, was one of the big losses, a five-set match against Gineto Disanti(ARG). No, I didn't know who he was before either. Not a good sign for Herrera. Ujjaval played a familiar name, Djurdje Moicevic. An expected routine win retained only the routine aspect, as he was knocked out 7-6(5), 6-4, 6-2. A straight-sets loss in the second round is a terrible result for him at this stage.

Prakash Mooljee's first test came in the third round, where either he or Andronikov were set to have a bad day. Mooljee played well enough both on serve and return to leave little to chance, controlling the match from start to finish with a trio of 6-4 sets. Nicely done there, and he equals his best Slam result with this win. Girsh and Mehul both had routine, if competitive victories. Sava Cirakovic took a tough match over no. 9 Agustin Herrera in four sets; he's been inconsistent, but has had his moments this year. Benda's exit came at this stage as well, courtesy of the slowly rising Tomas Niklas in three close ones. Federer bowed out, and Elias Trulsen put the bow on a disappointing fall for himself with a 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 loss to no. 30 Agustin Herrera. Eeek. If that's all he's going to do, he should just go play doubles. Seriously.

For the second straight event, Girish Girsh and myself were displeased to see Mooljee waiting in the round of 16. Again it's Girsh controlling the match in a competitive straight-sets score, 6-4, 7-6(4), 6-2. It was reasonably close for a while, but he's not there yet and fails to get the fall breakthrough he needed. More on that later. Fine match between Cirakovic and Theodore Bourdet, with the Croatian getting a huge win 6-4, 6-2, 4-6, 6-7(4), 7-6(6). Pulls out the final-set breaker after losing a two-set lead. Not bad. Straight sets for Mehul as well though Davide Poilblan hung with him for a while, Janin's run finally ends courtesy of Kinczllers, and the usual suspects advance in the bottom half of the draw.


Elsewhere ...

Ritwik Dudwadkar took the big step of his first tier-2 tournament this week. In Prague, he was seeded first with many of the top players in action at the junior USO, a big reason why I chose this week. As the top seed, he bashed his way to easy titles in both singles and doubles, and shot up 30 spots in the rankings as a result. A fine week for him as he seeks to improve his stock towards the end of the year.

[Brian Swartz]

Second Week

Six of the top eight made the quarterfinals, with rising stars Cirakovic(19th) and Niklas(27th) quite notable exceptions. The first was easy straight-setted by Girsh, while the second gave Iglar a match for the second straight tournament, but lost in four. Gustavo Caratti ended the USA's dim hopes by stopping Gaskell, but the one match really worth watching was Anil Mehul against Mugur Kinczllers. This one stood out to me even when the draw was first released. Kinczllers is typically at his best on hardcourts, though he's had a rough time of it recently, and lately you never know how much of his game Mehul will have. The Italian took a couple of close sets early, but eventually relinquished the lead. Early in the fifth he took control though, and Anil could never seriously threaten in the decider. He falls well short of defending his title though his effort in the comeback cannot be questioned. 7-5, 7-6(5), 4-6, 4-6, 6-3 was the final score. He missed some chances in the first two sets, and that was his opportunity to win this. At the end, Kinczllers was the better player.

Girish Girsh lost a set for the first time this tournament in his semi, but Kinczllers went out in four. It really wasn't even as close as that would indicate, he just lost his focus for a bit. Iglar knocking out Gustavo Caratti in straight sets surprised basically nobody. For the third time in five weeks, Antonin Iglar was the opposition for a big final. Very little changed. Iglar's serve remained his biggest weapon(23 aces to 12), but didn't give him quite enough edge to offset his declining abilities in other areas. Girsh puts an undeniable stamp on the fact that he is alone at the top of the sport now with a 6-4, 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 victory. His fourth Slam overall but third on the year, this ends any doubt that he'll remain at the top well into next season at the very least.

[Brian Swartz]

Top Ten Rankings Update

1. Girish Girsh(SRI, 28) -- 14,660

Girsh is pretty rarified air here. He's not just #1 now, but a dominant champion with a considerable cushion. He is 67-4 on the season, and hasn't loss since Roland Garros -- 24 straight in the win column. 'Weak era' or not, it's impressive stuff.

2. Antonin Iglar(CZE, 30) -- 11,180

Iglar is pretty much laminated here in the second spot. He'll eventually give way to others of course but Caratti can't win enough off of clay, at least yet, to knock him down further. It's quite clear his days at the top are now finished though. He's been amazing, a living legend, but the slow fall is now here. I don't envy him the consideration of nine straight defeats in Slam finals ... that can't be an easy thing to live with.

3. Gustavo Caratti(ARG, 28) -- 9,330

The undisputed king of clay has not been able to do enough elsewhere to close the gap, and now his best play is behind him just as it is for the others.

4. Anil Mehul(SRI, 31) -- 7,130

Finally dropping away now is Mehul, as the pecking order of the big four is quite clear at this point. The questions coming into this year have emphatically resolved themselves.

5. Mugur Kinczllers(ITA, 28) -- 5,140

Reaching the semis at the USO rescued his fall, and gives him this spot again ... for now.

6. Theodore Bourdet(FRA, 28) -- 4,800

7. Pierce Gaskell(USA, 31) -- 3,920

Like Mehul, only capable of producing good results occasionally now.

8. Davide Poilblan(FRA, 27) -- 3,575

Consistent inconsistency is the name of Poilblan's game.

9. Agustin Herrera(PER, 26) -- 3,505

10. Bjorn Benda(DEU, 33) -- 3,350

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the World Tour Finals
Post-USO Edition

In

Girish Girsh -- 12,710
Gustavo Caratti -- 8,340
Antonin Iglar -- 7,580

Girsh is the runaway #1 this year, while Iglar has joined the field yet again as anticipated. Caratti holds the second spot for now, but he can't compete with Iglar in the upcoming events and he'll soon fade to third again.


Probable

Anil Mehul -- 5360
Mugur Kinczllers -- 4870
Theodore Bourdet -- 3760

Looks like Mehul hangs onto the fourth spot through the end of the year, but it's far from certain. Kinczllers looks secure in fifth, and for the two of them it's basically just awaiting the paperwork to book their spots. Bourdet looks likely, but he's got a lot more work to do.


Contenders

Bjorn Benda -- 3250
Pierce Gaskell -- 3210
------------------------
Agustin Herrera -- 3125

A rather fascinating thing has happened here. Both Benda and Gaskell did better than expected in the last month ... Benda went out early in the big events, but won the German Open(500) ... and now we have some drama to the finish. Two old war-horses, making a final push for one last appearance.


Long Shots

Davide Poilblan -- 2705
Shreya Ujjaval -- 2705
Thiago Herrera -- 2515
Prakash Mooljee -- 2405
Tobia Alberti -- 2395
Elias Trulsen -- 2385
Roger Federer -- 2270

Everybody here really needs a big finish at this point, given that it's now pretty close to the end. Poilblan and Ujjaval esp. still have a chance though, about 500 points back and a couple of veterans and a clay specialist ahead of them that could go out early in any tournament. Mooljee's chances are more remote ... he actually lost a bit of ground on the qualifying line in the past weeks has too much ground to make up to do it with a breakthrough performance or two. That's not out of the question completely, but unquestionably time is running short. The list has thinned a bit here, and will unquestionably thin further over the next few weeks, by the end of Shanghai.

[Brian Swartz]

Sri Lanka Rankings Update

Girsh Girsh -- 1st singles. If he finishes well, Girsh has a chance for a historically great season. It's already basically assured of being clearly his best. He'll seek to make hay while the sun shines, well aware that sooner or later, Mooljee is coming ...

Anil Mehul -- 4th singles. Mehul has pretty much settled in now and will hope to hold off the pack and stay fourth this year. A five-year run in which he won at least one Slam title each season has now come to an end. No finals for him either. That's as good a book-end as any. Interestingly, his winning percentage is nearly identical to last season's, he reduced the bad losses but just can't get it done against the top players any more.

Prakash Mooljee -- 13th to 12th singles, 202nd to 190th doubles. With ok results, but not as good as he is capable of, Mooljee continues to progress slowly. There's only a 200-point gap between 11th and 16th right now, and he's right in the middle of that pack. It is still very possible that he could finish as high as 10th.

Shreya Ujjaval -- 17th to 13th singles, 54th doubles(unchanged). Ujjaval had a poor USO but other than that it's been a pretty impressive year for him. 13th in the world but only 4th from his nation. Heady stuff for Sri Lanka, that!

Shyam Senepathy -- 80th singles(unchanged). Still looks pretty much like he's treading water at the moment.

Ritwik Dudwadkar -- 77th to 54th juniors. At 33-1 in singles this year, he's pretty much flattened all comers. The time has come for Dudwadkar to move up. He'll be looking to gain as much as he can in the rankings towards the end of the year, as that will position him best to play the big events next season. The importance of this is in gaining more experience from these tournaments.

Manager Ranking -- 2nd to 1st! Another goal achieved; the US Open win put me over the top. 44.6 to 46.8k points. Really the only thing left here is to reach oprice's record of 64k+ or get as close to it as I can. I'm confident I can hit over 50k but beyond that I'm less certain.


Coming Up ...

Time for the World Team Cup to get going again. We meet Spain in the quarterfinals next week.

[Brian Swartz]

World Team Cup Quarterfinals
Sri Lanka vs. Spain, Clay

Monday: G. Girsh d. J. de los Santos, 6-4, 7-6(2), 6-4
Tuesday: A. Mehul d. S. Davila, 6-1, 6-1, 6-0
Wednesday: E. Serrano/I. Malpica d. S. Ujjaval/P. Mooljee, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3
Thursday: G. Girsh d. S. Davila, 6-4, 6-0, 6-1
Friday: A. Mehul d. J. de los Santos, 6-3, 6-3, 3-6, 6-3

Sri Lanka defeats Spain, 4-1!!

Pretty solid week, more or less as expected. I thought we might lose one of the singles encounters possibly here, as it was on Spain's favored clay. We move on to face Argentina in the semifinals in a couple of weeks. If that is on clay as well we are in more serious jeopardy ... but it is indoors, so we should be fine. A 3-2 win with a doubles loss and Mehul losing to Caratti would seem to be the worst-case scenario. On the other side of the bracket, the United States will meet Italy, who narrowly upset the Czech Republic 3-2. We're still #1 overall, gaining slightly in our margin over the US, while Argentina is the top nation this year so far, pushing into a strong third position. I expect we'll put a stop to that, at least for the moment. Italy's done second-best for the top nations so far, already up six spots to 11th. Making the semis is huge for them.

Coming Up ...

Dudwadkar is back in action next week, and then the semifinals against Argentina after that.

[Brian Swartz]

The schedule towards the end of the year is turning challenging in terms of juniors; it's a lot more difficult at this point to find top events with a 'diluted' enough field that Dudwadkar can do well in them. For that reason, he took another event on short break the next week, an indoor tier-2 in Minsk. Doubles didn't go well as he lost in the first round, despite being part of the top-seeded team. Singles was better though; Dudwadkar claimed his second straight title at this level. He moves up into the Top 50 in juniors for the first time, and this point has a projected ranking of 11th to start next season. I'd like to do better, but that's not half bad.

Then ...

World Team Cup Semifinals
Sri Lanka(1st) vs. Argentina(3rd), Indoors

Monday: G. Girsh d. T. Benitez, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2
Tuesday: A. Mehul d. G. Caratti, 7-5, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(8)
Wednesday: V. Yumashev/G. Disanti d. S. Ujjaval/P.Moojee, 6-3, 6-1, 6-0
Thursday: G. Girsh d. G. Caratti, 3-6, 6-4, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4
Friday: A. Mehul d. T. Benitez, 6-2, 7-5, 7-6(7)

Sri Lanka defeats Argentina, 4-1!!

Even on our most beneficial surface, it was far from a walk in the park. Give Gustavo Caratti credit for playing a couple of tough rubbers, but we ultimately won all the ones we were supposed to and move into the final. Elsewhere, on clay, Italy defeated the United States in their second straight upset, 4-1. All but one of the singles tilts there were close, two went the distance. The key players on both sides are on the decline, but this time around Kinczllers was the best player. Italy is up to 7th now, and this is to my knowledge the best result they've ever achieved.

The final will be on hardcourt, where Mugur Kinczllers is still one of the best in the world. We only need to beat him once, as Alberti shouldn't be much of a threat. We should take it 3-2 or 4-1; I don't see us losing both times against their standard-bearer.

[Brian Swartz]

Japan Open(500)

Everybody else is off for practice this week, but this is a highly important tournament for Prakash Mooljee. This is basically his last, best chance to move up more this year and possibly even get back in the Tour Finals discussion. Last year he was a quarterfinalist this year, but he's aiming higher. Unfortunately he hasn't played well in practice recently, so I'm not optimistic ...

Some good fortune as the draw laid out nearly perfectly. The other 500 this week, the China Open, had a much tougher field but for some reason Marcek bowed out here at the last minute and he was a potential threat. Additionally, Mooljee was drawn on the opposite side of probably the biggest danger, Pierce Gaskell. Mooljee is seeded second, and Ujjaval was here as well in the third spot.

There were no big surprises in the first two rounds. Ujjaval was upset in the third round, a tough three-set match against Andre Herrera. Mooljee met phenom Luc Janin at that stage but it ended up his easiest match of the tournament, as he blasted the Canadian 6-1, 6-2. A fine performance. A strange semi against Fabricio Gilardino, who is good enough to cause problems. Mooljee was by far the better player but couldn't convert(1 of 18!! break chances). Fortunately the American had similar troubles, getting stoned on all six of his opportunities, and Prakash won. That was to be the toughest obstacle as Herrera also knocked out Gaskell in his semi, but was no match in the final. Prakash Mooljee gets a much-needed second 500 crown, both of his career, and this season, which will hopefully give him some confidence going into Shanghai next week.

Beyond that, he moves onto the first page for the first time as #10 ... three Sri Lankans there now! Even more notable, in the grand scheme of things and to the average fan, is the fact that Bjorn Benda drops off for the first time. It's sort of a final good-bye to the former #1 from Germany.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the World Tour Finals
Pre-Shanghai Edition

** Under normal circumstances, I wouldn't calculate this again until after the Shanghai Masters. However, I'm going to be looking at it week-to-week from this point on, as I will be needing to adjust Mooljee's scheduling choices based in considerable part on how this unfolds, how much of a chance he has of getting in, etc. So I might as well share it with the thread also while I'm doing that.**

In -- the cut line is presently at 4740

Girish Girsh -- 12,710
Gustavo Caratti -- 8,290
Antonin Iglar -- 7,680
Anil Mehul -- 5410
Mugur Kinczllers -- 5120

Kinczllers and Mehul have officially qualified, reducing the number of undetermined spots to three.


Probable

Theodore Bourdet -- 3670

Bourdet is sort of in no-man's land here, and his spot could still come into question if he doesn't get one more good result.


Contenders

Agustin Herrera -- 3305
Bjorn Benda -- 3300
--------------------------------------------------------
Pierce Gaskell -- 3250


Long Shots

Prakash Mooljee -- 2860
Shreya Ujjaval -- 2750
Thiago Herrera -- 2695
Davide Poilblan -- 2505
Tobia Alberti -- 2415
Elias Trulsen -- 2385

The list has shortened by a couple of names already(McCuskey and Federer), and I expect two or three more to drop off after Shanghai. Mooljee's win in Japan essentially leapt him to the head of the class among the long-shots, just in front of Ujjaval. Make no mistake about it though, he's still a long shot. The gap he needs to make up is still considerable(440 points right now), but it was nearly cut in half. With four weeks left, he'll need to take every opportunity to have any real chance to make it. Right now though it's still three playing for two spots(Herrera, Benda, and Gaskell) until somebody demonstrates otherwhise.

[Brian Swartz]

Shanghai Masters

Usually the last hardcourt masters event of the year is relatively predictable given the swing of events that leads into the US Open just a month prior. In this case though, there were some interesting surprises in store.

Shyam Senepathy, again, exited stage right in the first round of qualifying. There were a number of interesting first-round matches, but the only one that resulted in a seeded player losing was Federer going down to Lars Kroese, 6-3, 7-6(10). Remember Kroese's name; he's young and on the rise. I think I'll be talking more about him in the years to come. Bjorn Benda had a tough one in the first round against countryman Moicevic but came through, and A. Herrera was pushed the three sets by US qualifier Robert Jerrold. Other than that, pretty straightforward.

With the quality of play picking up, there were some good matches to watch in the second round. Agustin Herrera couldn't dodge a second bullet, becoming the first Top-10 scalp of Luc Janin, who continues to force himself into the headlines. 6-1, 6-7(8), 7-6(5) was the final, as even when Herrera got going after the slow start he couldn't quite get past the 20-year-old Canadian. Poilblan was pushed to three by a German qualifier, and a couple of tense encounters saw McCuskey just barely survive Andronikov, and Ujjaval sneak past Cirakovic. Those could have gone either way, ending in three long sets. Meanwhile, qualifier Milan Farkas, a blast from the past, outplayed Benda but the German vet still prevailed 6-3, 5-7, 6-4. I've had him dead and buried most of the year, but Benda still manages to find his way through his share of the time.

In the third round, Tiosav Srbulovic continued his late-season hardcourt push by rallying from the loss of a set to oust no. 6 Theodore Bourdet. Then, Prakash Mooljee found himself up against Gustavo Caratti. Both on paper and on the court, it had the look a match that could go either way. Mooljee is the better player on this surface by now, but how many nearly-won matches has he lost this year? It nearly happened again before he recorded a 5-7, 6-3, 7-6(5) victory. A rare appearance by his serve helped immensely as he notched 21 aces. Khasan Zakirov, who has not been heard from much lately, took out Gaskell in a pair of tiebreaks to reach his first quarterfinal in a Masters or better, and Janin did so as well by eliminating Poilblan in a close match.

So both of the French players were gone, and three unseeded players reached the last eight here. Not exactly the usual way of things. An impressive start by Girsh saw him lose just two games against Srbulovic, while Mooljee was equally stunning in a 6-4, 6-2 demolition of Mugur Kinczllers, winning all seven break points against the world no. 5 on his best surface. This might be his most impressive display yet, and the opposite of his trend this year of not taking the opportunities presented. Iglar flattened Zakirov in quick fashion, and Anil Mehul was nearly a third consecutive upset victim of Janin before rallying, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3. The Canadian upstart appears to be progressing faster than I would have though possible.

The fourth meeting between Girish Girsh and Mooljee went as the first three have; Girsh in straight sets, and this one wasn't even close. It seems Prakash left all of his best tennis behind in the past couple of rounds, but a pair of Top-5 wins and a second Masters semi for the year came at a much-needed time for him, providing a huge boost. Antonin Iglar figured to once again be the final opponent, but Mehul surprisingly snapped a six-match losing streak lasting over a year against him, 6-3, 2-6, 6-4!

That left a chance for history to be made. If Anil Mehul won, he would break Gorritepe's record for the oldest man to win a Masters event by nearly half a year. When Girsh came out flat, it looked like it would happen. He came back to even the match, and the third set was in doubt until the end. Mehul's bid came up short, 2-6, 6-3, 7-5, but it was still a whale of a run and his first final in a big event this year.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the World Tour Finals
Post-Shanghai Edition

I had to make one significant adjustment after noticing something. It's quite a rare situation, but one playerDavide Poilblan has played a bunch of 250s and virtually no 500s this year. He's won most of them, and the game is counting them instead of taking the 'empty' 500 slots -- usually 4 500s and 2 250s is how it works out. After boosting Poilblan's total to account for this, I am left with an incredibly close race for the final spots with just three weeks to go ...


In -- the cut line is presently at 4320

Girish Girsh -- 13,710
Gustavo Caratti -- 8,310
Antonin Iglar -- 8,040
Anil Mehul -- 6,010
Mugur Kinczllers -- 5,300

Early exits by Caratti and Kinczllers have changed things a bit. It looks very likely now that Mehul, having reached the first big-event final of his season here, will hang on to the fourth spot, and Caratti looks ripe for the picking by Iglar as the season wraps up.


Probable

Theodore Bourdet -- 3760

A third-round exit for Bourdet does little more than maintain his spot. He's still over 500 points short of the qualification line.


Contenders

Bjorn Benda -- 3390
Agustin Herrera -- 3350
--------------------------------------------------------
Pierce Gaskell -- 3340
Prakash Mooljee -- 3220
Davide Poilblan -- 3195

Mooljee is now officially in the hunt after his second Masters semi of the season. It's been a heck of a two weeks and I now actually think he's going to make it, but he's still on the outside looking in for the moment. This is shaping up to be potentially the most dramatic Race I've had in all my years here. Five players going for two spots even if you don't count Bourdet, and less than 200 points separating them. In terms of strategizing for the big finish, Mooljee is going to just keep playing ... he's got to build up his form for the off-season anyway, esp. if he doesn't make the cut. Most of the others are going to take time off, which is probably a mistake but we'll see how it goes - they will be fresher for the finish at Paris, where Bourdet and Poilblan have a big advantage from the crowd.

Every match is vital from here on out ...


Long Shots

Shreya Ujjaval -- 2840
Thiago Herrera -- 2785
Elias Trulsen -- 2430
Tobia Alberti -- 2415

Due to the fact that the three main contenders(Benda, A. Herrera, Gaskell) didn't do much, nobody dropped off this week. Even Alberti, who is under new management that is apparently double-focused and didn't even enter the singles draw, is still technically hanging around. Everybody here is at least 500 points off the pace though, so they need a big push and some luck at this point.

[Brian Swartz]

250s Week

Three events, all 250s, all indoors.

** Kremlin Cup -- Iglar is the top seed, with second-seeded Bjorn Benda the only one relevant to the race. Benda made it to the semis before losing badly to Zakirov, who did well to get to the final against the world no. 2. Unfortunately for Bjorn, this does not add anything to his total for the year -- he needed to make the final to improve.

** Stockholm Open -- Prakash Mooljee was seeded first here. Elias Trulsen dropped out in the quarters, hurting his already basically non-existent chances as the only other player here active in the Race. Guardado gave Mooljee a bit of a match in the quarters, but it was the next round where things got more interesting. 19th-ranked Sava Cirakovic is 3-0 against him, including a third-round win at RG this year in their only professional meeting. Mooljee got off to a bad start but soon rectified that in a straight-sets win. Andronikov was up next in what was an evenly-contested final. Mooljee's serve was a bit better and he played the big points a bit better to get a nice comeback win, 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-3. It was the only match of the tournament where either player lost a set, and a good example of Mooljee's recent turnaround; he's now consistently winning, instead of consistently losing, these kinds of matches where he is the better player but not by enough to avoid giving them chances. This is a nice boost to get the title here, where he also won last season, and should put him in the WTF field for the time being.

** European Open -- Top-seed Davide Poilblan is the only one to notice here. He cruised to the final against Tomas Niklas, where he needed a pair of tiebreak sets to narrowly claim the crown. An expected result, not least of which due to the fact that Poilblan is a skilled indoor player.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the World Tour Finals
Two Weeks Remaining


In -- the cut line is presently at 4310, dropping just 10 pts.

Girish Girsh -- 13,710
Gustavo Caratti -- 8,310
Antonin Iglar -- 8,040
Anil Mehul-- 6,010
Mugur Kinczllers -- 5,300

No change here as the top six players all took the week off, a wise decision in most cases as they'll be looking to make a bigger splash in Paris and at the Tour Finals.


Probable

Theodore Bourdet -- 3760

Bourdet could only have improved by winning one of the 250 events, and he's banking instead on a strong showing in one of the bigger tournaments next week.


Contenders

Prakash Mooljee -- 3425
Bjorn Benda -- 3390
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Agustin Herrera -- 3350
Pierce Gaskell -- 3340
Davide Poilblan -- 3295

Mooljee was the big winner this week as Benda didn't make it far enough to help, and Poilblan's 5th 250 title on the year didn't improve his standing as much. Overall things tightened up even further here ... I double-checked the math and there are now five players within 130 points going for the two spots, with Bourdet even not that far ahead. For the moment, Mooljee is in and Herrera out, but it's like the weather here ... wait five minutes, it could change again.


Long Shots

Shreya Ujjaval -- 2840
Thiago Herrera -- 2785
Elias Trulsen -- 2670
Tobia Alberti -- 2445

All still on life support.


Coming Up ...

I made a potentially costly clerical error next week. Girsh, Mehul, and Mooljee are the top three seeds at the Swiss Indoors ... I'd intended to have Mehul play in Vienna. This will leave the door more open for others to do well there -- Bourdet is the top seed with Gaskell, Poilblan, Benda, and Trulsen all entered as well. Both events will have a somewhat stronger field than is typical for 500 events .. only the Herreras and Ujjaval are skipping these and putting all their eggs in the Paris basket.

Probably won't mean that much in the grand scheme of things, but Mehul could have kept Vienna out of the hands of the French. Those who do well this week will have the inside track going into Paris.

[Brian Swartz]

500s Week

** Swiss Indoors -- As mentioned this could be otherwhise termed the Sri Lanka Invitational. Girsh, Mehul, and Mooljee are the top three seeds, with none of the lower ones relevant to the Race. Federer lost a tight one in the first round to Rui Padilla, but all the other seeds made the quarters as drawn. Straight-sets matches all around there with Tioslav Srbulovic the beneficiary of Federer going down. Both semifinals were blowouts, with Mooljee taking just three games from Girsh and Srbulovic four from Mehul. This is not really unexpected as both Girsh and Mehul still are quite proficient indoors, a hold-over from when I originally planned things that way. Mooljee is higher than I'd like on the surface but it is his worst objectively. The final was a heck of a match. Girish Girsh took the first set, but Anil Mehul rallied for a 4-6, 7-6(2), 7-6(5) barn-burner. It looked for most of it like Girsh's 20 aces(13 for Mehul) would be enough to get him through, but Anil played like a champion in the tiebreaks to get the mild upset. It's his sixth 500 crown.

In terms of the Race, the big news here is Mooljee can replace a second-round loss at Washington a few months back with a semifinal here, so he improves his standing somewhat.

** Vienna -- The French duo of Bourdet and Poilblan were heavily favored here, being quite proficient on indoor courts. With the top five seeds all still alive in the Race though, this was an even more important event in that regard. Elias Trulsen had to go to 13-11 in a third-set tiebreak to get through his first-round match, and Poilblan lost a set before roaring back in his, but all the seeds got past their first matches intact. None of them dropped a set in the second round, leading to a 'perfect' quarterfinal setup. Trulsen was obliterated 6-2, 6-0 by Theodore Bourdet, for all intents and purposes eliminating him although I'm not sure if the math will quite do that. Pierce Gaskell lost a tough one to Tomas Niklas, who is sure finishing well this year, 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-4. The top US player will definitely need a big run in Paris to get back in it now. Bjorn Benda nearly lost as well, but got through a third-set breaker to squeak by Condon.

Both of the favored Frenchmen took care of business in straight-set semis, Bourdet over Benda and Poilblan over Niklas. Theodore Bourdet was the better in the final, 6-3, 6-4, and definitely solidified an already strong position at a minimum. Poilblan gained a bit but not much with his run to the final ... he really need to win here as he's just replacing one of his 250 titles so it's a minor plus. Benda will get a modest boost from making the semi, and Gaskell/Trulsen don't figure to gain at all.

[Brian Swartz]

Race to the World Tour Finals
Pre-Paris Edition


In -- the cut line is presently at 3990

Girish Girsh -- 14,010
Antonin Iglar -- 8,690
Gustavo Caratti -- 8,380
Anil Mehul-- 6,510
Mugur Kinczllers -- 5,300
Theodore Bourdet -- 4,160

Partly due to recalculation(the 500/250 issue), Iglar has taken his expected #2 spot back. Girsh has an astonishing gap at the top, and Mehul a strong grip on the #4. It looks nearly certain that this will be the final order of the top six with only the margins changing a bit. Bourdet's title in Vienna combined with earlier losses by others have him confirming his spot in the field as well.


Probable

none


Contenders

Prakash Mooljee -- 3560
Bjorn Benda -- 3390
-------------------------
Agustin Herrera -- 3350
Davide Poilblan -- 3345
Pierce Gaskell -- 3340

Mooljee solidified his hold on one of the spots but for the other one Poilblan moved closer. Something weird is going on with Herrera's ranking, I think there's a calculation bug again possibly in the game so hopefully that doesn't affect things at the end. Right now my money's on Mooljee and Poilblan, the latter needing something similar to last year's quarterfinal run in Paris. He's very capable of it, and I'd expect him to go deeper than Benda ... given a decent draw. Four players within 50 points for the final spot ... it can't get any closer than that, and Mooljee isn't out of the woods either. He needs a few wins to be sure of his spot; worst-case scenario, he'd have to make the final to be absolutely certain.


Long Shots


Shreya Ujjaval -- 2840
Thiago Herrera -- 2785
Elias Trulsen -- 2670
Tobia Alberti -- 2415

Everybody here basically has to win the title in Paris to have a chance. They have one mathematically, but not practically speaking. None has been playing well lately(Alberti hasn't even been playing at all, in singles), and none is particularly good indoors.


Coming Up ...

As usual given the closeness of the competition for the final spots, I'll be doing round-by-round updates on Paris as I'm able. As of this writing it is Sunday so qualifying is going on. Around midnight or so, most of the nine remaining hopefuls will be playing their first matches. Unlike the last couple of Masters events, Tobia Alberti did enter in singles here so he can't actually be eliminated quite yet.

[Brian Swartz]

Paris Masters: First Round

Due to a quirk, Tobia Alberti was not seeded(17th, top 16 get a bye) and his first singles match in two months comes in the first round. Basically his only chance to qualify is to win the tournament and have several others lose their first match. As it happened, he drew one of the toughest matchups he could have; 20th-ranked Sava Cirakovic. Alberti was bageled in the first set and went on to lose 6-0, 4-6, 6-3. So that's that -- it was expected to happen quickly but not necessarily this fast. He's gone, and the list of players competing for the final pair of spots is cut from nine to eight; almost all of them have now learned who their first foe will be.