Snakebitten: A Real-Time MP FOF thread

[QuikSand]

Just a note I'm still following. The chemistry approach has always fascinated me, though I pay literally no attention to it.

:thumbsup:

[QuikSand]

Free agency continues, no real news of note here.

Baltimore - transactions page (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampagetransactions.php?teamid=2)

A one-year, cut-friendly deal for our RB2, who is fine and great for cohesion/chemistry, but not exciting skill-wise. We also re-up with our WR group leader affinity gimp at minsal.

Two more draft picks in the books:

2.29 TE Arturo Weydahl (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5931&p=54020&viewfull=1#post54020) - the plan wasn't to go TE, TE in the first two rounds, but I don't hate it...this guy is more of a sure thing, different skill set, and my scout graded him VU which is pretty rare for us, so I move in.

Our status at TE is, effectively, an 8th year starter who thinks he's worth $25m (he isn't), a 4th year backup who will also price himself out of his contract after this year, a 2nd year guy who looks pretty good but is under-developed, and now two rookies with different skills... we might have pressure to just use the FB at FB, sadly, which is pissing away a 1st round pick.

3.29 CB Gregory Baskerville (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5931&p=54051&viewfull=1#post54051)

Chemistry fit, bump-first guy who should step into a decent role with us. I wanted to add a usable DB, he looks like a fit. Scout graded him VO, and that bumped him out of my first round consideration, but I'm fine with him in the late 3rd... hoping for a long term CB4/DB6/ST sort here.

[QuikSand]

Incidentally, it looks like next year will be a free-for-all, with multiple directions to go. Jimmy Mc will want to be paid. I will have at least a half dozen important players in free agency, who were asking for (IMO) too much money. So, we'll have a big fork in the road about whether we remain in a "maintain" mode or whether we commit to more of a rebuild.

Guys who will be in the mix there: DE Rison, RB Phelps, WR Guthrie, DT Luke, S DeMatteo, LT Woolford, LB Shaw -- all veteran starters and major contributors, who are on team-friendly deals now and where extending isn't practicable for us this year. DeMatteo may well retire, others too, but if we let most of that fleet go, we'll lose a TON of cohesion.

[QuikSand]

More draftees:

4.29 CB Phil Ristic (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5931&p=54088&viewfull=1#post54088) - my standard 4th round draftee, has some limited skills, can play special teams, and if I can manufacture some starts for him, he coudl be a long term asset... but 4th round gets me one year of free affinity, we'll see after that

4.31 C Brock Freeman (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5931&p=54091&viewfull=1#post54091) - second verse, same as the first... though this guy is light enough on his feet that he could easily get some faux starts and be a long-termer

[QuikSand]

Been a while. Nothing exciting. Got my chem leader OL re-signed, that was important but not dramatic. Still have a leadership problem at WR/TE, no easy solution right now.

Should know more Monday.

I am, mentally, ready for next season to be a "start rebuilding it all" phase. I don't think Jimmy Mc is actually worth paying like a starter. This year's mid-round rookie might be our starter in year two.

[QuikSand]

Okay, training camp file sent in. Roster status summarized on Ben's "roster needs" page: GML: 2105 ("http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampagerosterneeds.php?teamid=2).

-Jimmy Mc sucks, officially. Got it.

-We're loaded at the FB/TE position... what the F are we gonna do, run the double wing?

-We're solid but thin on defense, that's fine for now

Plan to see what we can do this year, and then do a major ere-eval after this season remain intact.

[Izulde]

Looks like you've got an extra ]here at the end of the URL that throws an SQL error (deleting the ]here fixed it)

[QuikSand]

Thanks, edited.

[QuikSand]

So, file sent. Everything points toward another pretty good (though maybe not 12-4) season here buoyed by chemistry and high cohesion, and then to a very intriguing offseason next go-round.

Running basically the same system as last year, with largely the same personnel, just one more season under the QB's belt. If he can post a 90 rating and not many sacks, I think we have the talent all around to do pretty well, and be a "factor" in the league. I'd be surprised if we were a bye team, but not shocked after we managed it last year. 9-7 also would not shock me, to be fair.

[QuikSand]

Welp. How 'bout 8-8 and out of the postseason?

GML: Baltimore Ravens 2106 (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampage.php?teamid=2&year=2106)

We'll call last year the fluke. This was just bad.

[QuikSand]

Hmmmm. Disappointing. Looks like I failed to upload my file for the preseason stage... and my chemistry setup got gutted by the AI cuts then. I didn't notice that it had happened, and didn't go out and re-claim some of my gimps in the pre-camp stage. And...as I have proven multiple times, this is a very unforgiving league for that sort of malfeasance. Dammit.

[QuikSand]

I feel like there's a conspiracy to make me just quit FOF. This crap here, another league where I'm losing a season to playbook/gameplan weirdness. I keep coming back to "a league I care about" as a point in mentioning these... and then the reverb is "why do you care, dumbass?"

Maybe it's time to drop this hobby and move my attention elsewhere. Havin a great run in the stock market, good year in fantasy/DFS football, and in theory I'm also a dad and an executive or something like that.

[Pyser]

i think we're all just killing time til the next version comes out, but we're going on 2 years of that now...

[QuikSand]

Okay, turn the page. Shake it off. Big offseason here. We care. Honest.

Retirement hand us a twist I didn't expect - WR Guthrie retired. I didn't extend his deal as he was asking for huge money, but I fully intended to give it a shot. Now we're moving on like it or not.

S Doud DeMatteo also retired - serious talent and major cohesion influence for us for years, that fully transitions out the stellar DB group we featured for a while. I feel okay at DB longer term, but we need a legit guy to play safety this year, through the draft or free agency.

Setup is:
-we've got $272m in cap space, about 40% of the total
-we've got 35 players signed, and have lots of holes to fill
-we have to make a decision about a decent young QB
-we have zero RB signed, and our stalwarts are in years 8 and 10

So... this is basically a chance to dramatically shape the team. I feel like the decision at QB is the linchpin. If we can get capable QB play, then we might be well served to try to retain what we can for cohesion purposes, and try to "maintain" a high level, writing off last season to managerial malfeasance.

Jimmy Mc looks like he'd sign for maybe $12m/yr... cheap for a starter with experience, but he's not genuinely talented. My scout makes him 25/39, here's his page (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=81617) from the BELCo engines. I think what we get with him is a mobile QB with limited range... not awful, but unlikely to be the main reason we succeed, if that makes sense. I was expecting his price tag to be more like $25-30m, which I think I would just rule out... at half that, I'm thinking about it.

[QuikSand]

Wide receiver is an intriguing dilemma for us, with Guthrie off the table. My starting three would be these guys, if we make no additions:

WR Mercury Bailey (70/70)--yr 6
WR Victor Lester (52/63)--yr 3
WR Bernie Richmond (39/50)--yr 3

Bailey is the lamest 70/70 ever... overall ratings buoyed by great return skills, and a low enough "route running" rating to remind me that in FOF, that rating is tantamount to meaning "ability to play wide receiver" and without a good bar there, your guy is at best a complementary piece. Bailey has 44, and he's basically mediocre at wideout.

I have posted Bailey on the trade block section of the forum. If someone buys in, then that likely pushes me even further toward a rebuilding.

Lester and Richmond are fine, but nothing special. On a contending team, I might use them as WR3 and WR4, I think. If Lester slid into our #1 role, he'd likely get overmatched in coverages a lot, and would probably be a boring 200 targets, 140 catches, 1,200 yard sort of guy... big gross stats, but on a measly 6 yards per target, or thereabouts.

So... I think I might walk back from "QB sets the plan in motion." I think it might be that WR does. If we deal Bailey, we're likely going to be a 7-9 team for real this season. If we find a complement in free agency, and put Bailey back in the WR2 level, then maybe we're back in the serious picture.

[QuikSand]

Free agency thinking:

DE Rico Rison (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=75549) is going to be a Stage 2 guy, naturally, so I don't get a chance to wait and see with him. Here's his deal: I signed him to a fat contract when I was totally starving for a pass rusher... he was a heavy LB with a huge PRTech rating, and I rolled the dice he could play DE.

4 seasons in (gag) Pittsburgh: 22 sacks.
6 seasons in Baltimore: 81 sacks.

He's blossomed into a menacing presence. Now he wants to be paid like one - over $45m per year and he's in his 10th season. I'm guessing he will go to AVAILABLE. I am okay with pass rushers now (have two legit DEs and one legit DT - good enough for a zero-injury league), and think we can remain strong there without him.

RB Jaylen Phelps is a chemistry anchor, comes off a productive season with 5.2 ypc, and is only asking for $10m/yr. Seems like a reaosnable investment for us, despite him being an 8th year back. Maybe he can be our Marcus Allen of Frank Gore. We'll try to retain him. We get a stage to wait and see.

DT Darryl Luke is worth a lot to us for cohesion, we'll try to keep him.

LT Willie Woolford is a pretty good 9th year guy, and he's the perfect center of our debate this offseason. Chemistry plus, cohesion big plus, and talent is grade B or so... definitely good enough to start for a decent team. He wants $30m/yr which seems to be too much... but what else would we spend the money on here? He's likely to remain a viable starter for a few more seasons... I guess we try to retain him, but that feels like it might serve to frustrate any rebuilding effort. He's a stage 8 guy, so we have the luxury of waiting to see what else falls together here.

Working down the list...not too much thrilling here. WR Gene Lyons, who projects as my WR3/4 as it stands, comes off a 300 yard season and thinks he's a $15m/yr guy. Really, now.

[QuikSand]

Chemistry situation:

RB/FB: Marrero is in place and would be a find 4/5 leader... if Phelps re-signs he'll be a 6/7 leader...we're okay here

WR/TE: Ugly...WR O'Neill is our leader (and ST/KR specialist), but only 66 personality undercuts that... and believe it or not we're carrying a hidden conflict with WR Bailey... better to land a serious leader here from the 2/3 group, but Bailey makes that hard with a 6th/89 leadership force

OL: We probably have to live with G Dielman (9th/78) as our leader, but that's neutral with several key guys... we've got a young 4/5 guy on board to groom as a future leader, but he's far away from claiming it over Dielman...the only guy in the whole league who might fix this for us short term is tied up with AVAILABLE, so I think I have no real hope of making it right

D7: DE McLeon is cemented in as our starter, but pissed about playing time - that should change after starting this season, but it puts his long term future with us in some doubt... I've got enough to panic about already, I'll jump off that bridge when we get to it next season

DB: CB Meadows is a decent CB1 and we've built nicely around him...we re-signed CBs Wordehoff and Rumans (cuts from the AI purge last season) and they'll be back after signing as RFAs. Chemistry fine here, with Meadows only an 8th year guy and comfortably in charge

So... the OL is un-rebuildable. Will just go without a good chem situation there, I guess. Will splash around for options at WR/TE. Won't be a top-tier factor this year, but should remain best in the league by far.

[QuikSand]

Well, after flipping through the free agent class this offseason, this much is clear: we cannot do a major rebuild here. Just not enough.

If there were several 5th-8th year good fits out there, then I might be saying let's invest in them as the next big wave. But...really nothing much for us. Talent level is a bit thin overall, and very poor in the chem groups we focus on. I'm only so willing to invest in non-affinity guys, so that's a major limiting factor.

Don't expect fireworks, I'm saying here.

[QuikSand]

So, I have one pretty good offer in hand already for WR Bailey. I'm leafing through chemistry effects to see how I'd put it together without him around.

The best plan sounds very rebuild-y... I'd have to cut (or trade) WR O'Neill, then TE Thomason, and then WR Richmond... and give up on re0signing WR Lyons...and THEN I'd be pretty clear to go grab a 2/3 leader to bring my group together. I would be heavily dependent on my recent wave of h-back draftees, and that isn't a great thing. So, that would probably drop my offense down a peg and a half.

For a good draft haul, it could be worth it. But it might tip me toward figuring this season is basically a dud.

[QuikSand]

First FA stages - we end up making a pretty big splash signing - with a non-affinity guy who can play CB1. Gabe Everett (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=80659) will be chem-neutral, but ought to be an asset (or trade capital) for us for a while.

We also land a young OT (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=81177) who looks like he's on track to be good enough to start. Makes it that much easier for us to say no to Woolford's FA demands and just walk away.

I'm still waffling on the trade offer for WR Bailey. A sweetener has been added. I'm very close to 50/50 on it.

[QuikSand]

With out top pick at 1.15, earlier than we'd prefer, the boss move is to target the positions that tend to be wiped out by the end of round one - namely wide receivers. I don't love anyone there, so I just target need, and take a chem fit guy whom my scouts graded as underrated

http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5947&p=54266&viewfull=1#post54266

We're perilously thin at LB, so if this guy develops into an anchor SILB or SLB for a decade, that's fine by me.

[QuikSand]

Okay, free agency continues... and a couple noteworthy twists.

We lose out on RB Phelps. I didn't think he'd get any attention as an old guy, but I was wrong - Ben's Atlanta team outbid me, and he's gone. One more point in favor of a rebuilding attitude here - I struggled for years to get my running game to work well, and he was the guy who brought it all together. Alas. I have options on hand, including a new no-risk signee (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=80833), and could be drafting there soon (as I type I'm only a few picks away, with a RB now atop my draft queue).

I'm still plumbing for fixes to my free agency situation. Stay tuned, but there won't be a Christmas miracle here, I fear.

[QuikSand]

So, was away a while. You missed a few things.

Draft recap - not interesting but here it is:
1(15) SLB Renaldo Randolph 40/58
2(14) RB Roger Harden 40/53
4(17) FS Levi McGee 27/48
7(14) LT Ruben Monroe 17/40

So, the biggest news is that we signed a young QB, whom I now think might have the edge to start for us this year. Teddy Farrell (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=79984) looks pretty good to me, and was pretty inexpensive after riding the pine elsewhere. I let Jimmy Mc slide into late free agency, we'll see if he comes back (we will offer him) to be part of the mix, but his second season suggested to me he isn't the long term answer for us.

I still don't really have a feel for what this team is going to be "about" this year. I think I have ruled out dealing Bailey for a late 1st rounder plus, on grounds that I wouldn't get anyone as good as him there, and would then just be back to scrambling for a WR1. But at the same time, I really don't love our passing game personnel this year, unless I shift to a much more conservative and TE-focused offense.

Full transactions here:
Transactions summary (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampagetransactions.php?teamid=2)

[QuikSand]

Oh, I guess I should note...RB is a scramble now, too. The rookie is the standard "a few good bars, but apparently the correct ones to have," based on people who certainly understand the RB position better than I do, so I'm hoping he can be a productive 1st-and-10 runner for us. I have a couple veterans who have previously been very productive elsewhere (including a 2,000 yard rusher) but I don't know what combination I expect to keep around for this year and beyond.

Have 5 RBs on the roster (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampageroster.php?teamid=2), may carry 3, but am already facing a need for an affinity gimp (likely a position-switched QB to seize the leadership away from FB Marrero) so maybe only two RB.

[QuikSand]

Okay, regardless of whether it really kicks in this year, I want to be thinking about our "plan" at each position. Here's my sketch for right now:

Roster Needs page for reference (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampagerosterneeds.php?teamid=2)

QB - I'm hopeful that Teddy can take the reins and be "the guy." If we re-sign Jimmy Mc, then that's a two-way conversation, with either guy an arguable candidate to still be our QB1 in 5 years. I'm staying open to the notion that we can win without paying the QB position, too (look at Jimmy Mc's first year)... but that seems to require high level surrounding talent, especially at WR, and that's a hard piece of the puzzle to fit in later without a tank. Most likely, we'll try to build cohesion with Teddy or Jimmy, and pay him not-quite-stupid-money that way.

RB - Well, the main hope is that rookie Roger Harden can launch a career similar to our now departed workhorse Jaylen Phelps. If so, then this is easy - in a no-injury league we just plug him in as a RB1, find someone young or cheap to play RB2, and that's that. If Harden doesn't look like that guy, then we splash around with veterans until we find the guy.

FB - ideally, Jackson Lusignan will continue to develop, and be our high cohesion starter and special teams ace for a long time. One of the FB-to-TE converts could surely either switch back or just play as a lead blocker as warranted.

TE - we've invested too much capital here already - how to best harness that? Weydahl is the best of the lot, despite lousy BPR... Carr and Austin are both solid assets. I expect we will rotate and keep them all relevant, and still have all three of them around in five years. Perhaps we will be getting 1,200+ yards receiving from the group by then (that figure was around 900 last season, with veteran Thomason still counted in the mix).

WR - Depends on Bailey. I'm trying to get a somewhat sweeter deal to move him out, if so we will be close to bare - pushing young Victor Lester into the starting WR1 job despite him being more of a WR2/3 in a good offense. In that scenario, we'd have to commit either big draft capital or free agent capital to landing someone to play WR1 longer-term. If Bailey stays as WR1, I suspect I'll get frustrated enough that I'll still be looking to add quality here, even an end-of-career patchover guy.

OL: I need a chemistry lead change, but with G Dielman here, that's not happening soon. Longer term, he will leave, and we'll have decent quality built around a new leader... I think this current formula of cohesion and occasional quality is working fine.

DL: Even without Rison, we are looking good here - McLeon should step into Rison's role and complement Tuholski, we should remain above average in pass rush. I don't much care about stopping the run.

LB: We're weak here, I'm really counting on 1st round rookie Renaldo Randolph to be our next LB anchor, a la Corey Shaw. He doesn't look like a great run stopper, but if he bumps across the board a bit, he should be a long term LB1. Then we build similarly to the OL... find cheap decent guys who fit around our star or two, use chem and cohesion to make it good enough.

DB: We go pretty deep here already, and signing FA CB Gave Everett to sit atop the food chain as our CB1 makes this unit really strong. Everett is locked up for 4 years, I expect we can sit back and coheeze around the guys we've got, mostly, for the years ahead. We'll have some tricky decisions about guys without starts yet (the sort of thing that might hinge on whether this is a serious year) but overall, I'm basically fine. Second S playing time might go to surplus CBs (like Metzenbaum or Herndon) but that's fine here.

P/K: whatevs


Team is in pretty good shape. Honestly, if WR Guthrie were back this year, I'd be thinking about another "go for it" effort. Instead, I'm thinking our WR corps isn't good enough to really elevate a young QB, and we'll suffer for that. Regardless of which youngster is at QB, I'm thinking we're pretty average among the human teams this year, maybe a 9-win outfit or so.

[QuikSand]

Fun twist with our former workhorse RB, Phelps. I bid for him, but got beaten out by a shorter term but more lucrative (per year) deal from Ben's Falcons. So it goes.

Then Atlanta turns around in the stage right after the draft and releases him. That happens in time for an AI team to sign him (more cheaply than they were offering in the early FA stages). So, that happened. Regardless of the original motives (chemistry, quality, whatever) I'm out looking for a RB and an AI team is sitting on a cheaper contract with my guy than I had been offering for him to stay and thrive. It happens.

[Chas in Cinti]

Teddy looks intriguing...

[QuikSand]

Teddy looks intriguing...

Yes, I think so, too. I think he might be less of a turnover machine as Jimmy Mc seems to be, and that might be promising. So, I think the race is maybe 60/40 in my mind between the two of them.

[QuikSand]

Okay, just dealt WR Bailey for a 1,2,3 and a pretty good FB. Not sure I have time to develop a whole new playbook (by tomorrow), but shifting this team to a lot more 2TE formations seems like a no brainer at this point.

[QuikSand]

Well, biggest news in the camp stage is that QB Jimmy Mc is back. I somehow neglected to offer him in the first lats FA stage, but nobody else was interested. That forced my hand way from my intention (a fat 1yr deal, keeping him around as a RFA) and into a 4yr deal at his asking price, which as I now understand is the ticket for this stage. Anyway, he has re-upped, and our options are now open.

Having technical problems, so won't get to my file for a while. But that's the main news here, for certain.

[QuikSand]

...also LB Renaldo Randolph (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=83904) is on the "Dandies" list of players the league scouting tabs for ratings jumps... that's what I'm looking for with him, I would have been disappointed had he not been listed there. I don't want to fritter away a mid-first pick on a non-impact player... taking any LB is bad enough, he'd better be a stud.

[QuikSand]

Okay, preseason done, today is the regular season stage. time to resolve some position auditions.

Roster page for reference (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampageroster.php?teamid=2)

RUNNING BACK

The hope was that our rookie Harden would give a +8 in his initial reveal, and he'd slot in as the RB1/2 for the next six years. Instead, he's a -2, my scout is now pessimistic, and he's got very low personality, making him a borderline bust and a spec play there at best. So, we have two "stars of 2015" to choose from. 8th year Schwake put up a 2,000 yard season in 2015, then inexplicably jumped to the Jets on a minsal deal. We have him now, and he basically fits the profile for a "two year veteran starter while we figure this stuff out." Even if he's the Cardinals version of Chris Johnson (seeps like the apt comparison) that's not awful. The guy left out would be 4th year Dodge, who had a solid 1,000 yard season in 2015 and then sat unclaimed last year - now he's our on a minsal deal. He looks like the prototype "replacement level" guy to me... so I guess I'll stick with the rookie as RB2 (mostly as a change-of-pace runner, not a scatback/receiver), and let Dodge go.

QUARTERBACK

Both Jimmy Mc and Teddy Farrell will make the team, so only QB3 Shaun Reed is really bubbled. But who starts? I'm genuinely torn. I feel like getting Teddy his starts and getting his likely pick-a-thon debut behind us has merit, especially in a season where we are likely not to really threaten anyhow. So... I'm mentally penciling in Teddy as the starter, but it will be a tough call.

O-LINE ... WAIT WTF?

Oh boy, we got a random mega-bust with you very promising young OT Roy Brennan (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=81991). Ouch, that was our left tackle for 2019-2025, basically. Now he's likely to be stocking shelves at Piggly Wiggly by next week. Dammit. Volatility can stink sometimes.

We do have a rookie boom, but it's with an asterisk. OT Amos Curry looks like a decent rotation-caliber guy (maybe he projects to that) and he's got a very strong leadership profile (98/90) ... so he's a great find for us? Perhaps. But the problem is, our centerpiece players for the next 5 years (well, minus Brennan, now) are all in the 6-7 group already. So, no chemistry benefit unless we really commit to this guy as a future leader, get him starts to activate his chemistry effects, and then build up with 2-3 and 4-5 linemen. Plus, QB Farrell, if he's going to be our long term guy, is a 6-7, too, making that a bad (merely neutral) group for leadership in offense. Damn.

So... the better plan is to try to clear the way for a 2-3 leader. The best candidate we have on hand is young C Marshall Keith, a 4th year guy with a 66/89 profile. It may take time, but he could turn into a chemistry asset/anchor over time, and we have guys who would click around him. Losing Brennan is a major deficit in this plan, but it's still the best angle I have to work toward, I think. Moving G Dielman is part of the plan, eventually, I have him blocked but it likely won't happen this offseason... we'll see if there's ever a market for a top-tier OG in this league.

[QuikSand]

Okay, refigured the offensive gameplan for this season (this is highly unusual for me). Saved as "TeddyTightEnds" to give you a flavor of the approach. Going to try to get more out of my "T" tight end. It will come at the expense of some designed runs for the QB, and some WR1/2 targets, unsurprisingly. I don't think this will be a massive shift, but a meaningful one... I have deliberately put some medium-length passes at the T in my 1st-and-10 packages. I am going with 4 active tight ends, and I'd like to see over 1,000 yards form them in total.

[QuikSand]

Giant mystery season ahead here- we have not been this weak at WR for a long, long time. Tossing a new QB into that mix seems rough, so I don't expect big things... but if he's fairly cautious with avoiding turnovers, we might be an average or better offense, albeit a pretty conservative one (if my gameplan tweaks have the effect I want).

The good outcome:
QB Teddy 85 rating, 7.0 ypa, 22/10
RB Schwake 1400 yds on 4.6ypc
WR Lester 1000 yds, Richmond 700 yds
TE combine for 1200 yds

The bad outcome:
QB Teddy 75 rating, 6.0 ypa, 18/18
RB Schwake 1000 yds on 4.0ypc
WR Lester 900 yds, Richmond 600 yds
TE combine for 1000 yds

I think we end up closer to the top than the bottom, and get some valuable experience as we start an effort to build things up toward being very good again in about two seasons. This year, though, we go 7-9 and are a non-factor.

[QuikSand]

Okay, regular season results are in: we went 8-8, about what I expected, maybe a shade better

TeddyTightEnds was solid for the seaosn, and earned 2nd team in the AFC:
392 for 638, 4429 yards, 30 TDs, 10 INTs. 91.4 rtg. 71 att, 399 yds, 7 TDs, 5.62 ypc. 5 fmb.

Teddy's receiving targets were solid:

TE Arturo Weydahl
62 catches, 867 yds, 4 TDs, 9.03 ypt. 0 for 4 KRB. (0.0%) 0 pnk. 0 sk allowed.

WR Victor Lester
103 catches, 1198 yds, 11 TDs, 6.97 ypt.

I was wrong about our WR2, forgetting how much we throw to the slow in our 11 formation - so Lyons got those targets and his own 826 on 7ypt.

Running game? Not so much. Schwake posted 662 yds on 3.8 ypc, and we ranked 30th rushing on only 4.26 ypc team=wide (including Teddy's 400 yards at 5.62 ypc). So, that stunk, but we'll blame the O-line.

Defense was pretty anemic. Rookie LB Randolph is going to be excellent (17 PD!!!), and the cast around him should be okay. DLs McLeon, Tuholski and Calhoun are all pass rushers, but our group only managed a 19.2 PR%, not good enough for when we become a winning team again. Going forward, we will have a lot of options, and long term our special teams might turn out to be the real winner here - we have a gaggle of young players who will be serious ST assets for a long time.

Decent season. Nothing remarkable, but the plan is in place. We'll look more closely at Teddy's air game, but he may indeed be our guy going forward. Maybe Jimmy Mc can work his way into a "slash" role - that's not easy to do, but it's possible. Guy still runs in the 4.45 range, he might do okay in open space here and there.

[QuikSand]

Okay - the plan is to get this team back into top-tier contention for the 2019 season. This year was the bottom. Next year we have a shot to load up with rookies and potentially free agents. The driving thinking is "are you going to help us during our run from 2019-2023?" 9th year plus veterans and non-affinity marginal players are on notice.

[QuikSand]

2108 Offseason, and the Five-Year-Plan

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51eGvNo8ffL._UX385_.jpg

Okay, here's where we are as a franchise. I am generally okay with going through a phase like this, but now we have a plan. We are hopeful that the team will improve in 2108 over last year's 8-8, but that's not the real objective. The real objective is to regain league dominance over the next five years.

For me, as a way to order my thinking, here's what that means: on just about every decision of consequence, I want to be thinking about this team for the 2122 season an onward. The team might be good enough to contend before then, and that would be fine, but the real goal is to have things come together right around then and we max out for several years. The way this happened in another league where I run the Ravens (CCFL) was by way of strong chemistry and cohesion, coupled with solid roster-building and gameplanning. I'm targeting the same thing here... but the element I need to focus on is cohesion.

In this year's draft, we hold two picks in each of the first three rounds, via our trade-away of WR Bailey. That left a major roster hole at WR1, of course, and our team suffered for it. But it gives me a serious chance to load up with young players who could all be peaking after their first few years on the team, and if I play my cards right, could all be contributors with on-team experience by 4-5 seasons from now. Surround them with a strong chemistry structure (Billie Eilish says "duh") and enough talent to run the schemes I want, and we should be better than good. That's the goal.

So, I will do a roster evaluation now, through the filter of the soviet style five year plan (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwji7ojC9bfmAhVDq1kKHZ9WD24QFjAAegQIAxAH&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.britannica.com%2Ftopic%2FFive-Year-Plans&usg=AOvVaw2patkza2sdOWJs8LvVTnRW).

[QuikSand]

And... we are on the clock with 1.19, as I write. I am down to two players for the pick, and there's a chance I could land them both if one slides all the way to pick 1.31. That would be nice.

In a more nearly perfect world, I'd be getting a value pick at WR here, a serious team need and one I just find hard to draft later than the top half of the first round. I'm fine grabbing WR3-caliber guys later, but getting a WR1 seems elusive, to me and to most GMs, I think. Alas, I don't see a WR1 in this pool, and I'm instead likely to just go for Best Available Chemistry Fit.

So, the pick is on the trade block for a while, but I'll likely just target my good-fit need-position guy and hope the other one slides to 31.

[QuikSand]

I can't get my generic print-to-file setup working properly here, so I'll just link back to the online roster page, and try to reference that.

Roster Page (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampageroster.php?teamid=2)

QB is easy... TeddyTightEnds is the guy. I was pleasantly surprised when JimmyMc put up nice numbers as a hobo rookie, but we have a better fit in Teddy. I will hope that the OL develops well enough to live without JimmyMc's super-power level un-sackability... instead we will pursue the promise of a young QB with potentially maxed-out accuracy and timing. Teddy in, and, in a no-injury league, JimmyMc could end up being a cut/trade casualty (I messed up and failed to submit my intended fat 1yr offer to re-up with JimmyMc last offseason... but after a year on the bench he has had a ratings drop and a big combine drop).

Noteworty: Teddy is a 6-7 chem guy, Jimmy a 4-5 guy. With teddy locked in as the man, I will be considering offensive group leadership in search of good fits with him, as well as the rank and file in the position group. That could work against JimmyMc also.

RB, I don't really know. Harden (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=83315) is the only guy signed, and the sunk cost fallacy says we should be putting him to good use. I see a guy with...hmmm... "good enough" ratings at three key areas, but little else. The sort that I feel we could replace. Is he good enough to still be in our plans after another 4-5 years, once he is entering his RB twilight? Doubtful. I think he's a play-the-rookie deal sort of guy, and then ends up on the FA scrapheap. Allen is a camp guy, likely won't make this year's team.

FB Stai is a nice player, who would sign long term fairly cheaply, and in another setting this would be a no brainer. He'd help us for 18-19-20. What about 22? Hmmm. This is, probably, the exact guy I'm targeting with a five year plan... he might play this year and then just walk. FB Lusignan is a 4th year guy with starts and 90/100 in special teams. Bullseye. Stick around, dude, you're part of the plan despite not being much of a "football player." FB Reish is a 6-7 leader with 82/94 traits... great thus far, but he meshes with Jimmy not Teddy at QB. He's not talented enough to keep a role other than as a leader, so I need to give this some real thought. Ideally, I would like to lock in on a leader to build this group around...it's possible it's him, but it would be better if it were a guy who clicks with Teddy.

TE: We are loaded here with young guys, and I want them all to be part of the plan. I'm actually intrigued by the idea of building a more TE-friendly gameplan, but not enough to, you know, really do it. So, last year, I just took my stock offense and dropped about 8 TE-focused played into fairly common situations. that seemed to work okay. This year, perhaps I'll do the same again, and see if that still works. Like everything in FOF, it surely has a breaking point, but in concept I like throwing from a 12 formation, as that's likely to have plenty of teams with their run-first defenders on the field.

Personnel: Weydahl has only a 4 in BPR, and 40 in run blocking, but past that he's basically a stud. Who does that make him? Darren Waller? Fine by me. He'll want to get paid soon, like $30m+ and he'll get it. He's a great follower for chemistry (0/63) in the 6-7 group, one more reason to find a new group leader. Carr was the 1sy round pick ahead of Weydahl, but he's Hayden Hurst to Weydahl's Mark Andrews. Solid player, good chem asset (70/85 in 4-5 group) and certainly a guy we want to keep around long term as well. both these guys were around 10 ypt last season in our TE-friendly offense. They are the build-around dudes. TE Austin is his decision year, but isn't asking for a lot over minsal to extend. My guess is we will not extend him, but will see what he seeks next offseason.

Could Carr be the guy we build chemistry around? Maybe. He's good enough to play, and in time he could take the leadership role, where he'd click with Teddy. His personality of 85 is, for me, borderline... but I do like being able to eschew using a corpse to build chemistry around. That's a possibility, but not perfect.

[QuikSand]

Bottom line, for this year's drafting and for younger players... on offense, the safest group to draft is going to be 6-7, same as my long term QB. I don't really know yet who my long term leader will be at RB/FB or TE/WR, but I'm very likely to align both groups to fit with Teddy. We're already deep at TE/WR with 6-7 guys, so that's the safe play there, too.

[QuikSand]

Draft update: I take a run-stopper safety at pick 19, Cole Austin (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5971&p=54587&viewfull=1#post54587). Had a three-way conundrum with the pick, but I know we are going to need help at SS. He's in the 8-9 group, which fits with the core set of young guys we are building around, so he'll gel with our leader whether he's a 7-8 or 11-12. The possible void at a static bar is a giant red flag, but I see enough to think he will be very solid for us, even if that's legit - I am waving off the "huge bust" red flag and taking him here.

[QuikSand]

Roster (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampageroster.php?teamid=2) Review, continued...

Offensive line: Well, we had a plan. Now I'm not so sure.

Tricky situation arose last season - our three current build-around veteran linemen (LT Woolford 10th, LG Dielman 10th, C Castillo 9th) all happen to be from the same chem group, 6-7. I've had an awful time getting someone to take the chem lead away from Dielman - last year I just gave in and started youngish Marshal Kieth (2-3 guy, 66/89) to prep him for future leadership. That looked fine - just build around a solid-looking 2-3 leader. Once Dielman goes, by trade or contract expiration, Kieth can take over and we'll be fine.

Problem is, that's presumably about when Woolford and Castillo will be ready to go, too. So... we really don't have to build chemistry around them, right?

So...the plan now is to establish somebody as the leader-in-waiting, and make sure we have pieces in place so that over the 5 year plan, we will remain solid in talent, loaded in chemistry, and at least developing in cohesion. RT Brennan was supposed to be the centerpiece of that, but he choked on a bone in camp last year and is now a waterboy. Instead, 5th year RT Gage Peterson has a year under his belt and an 89 personality in the 6-7 group, so he could be a long term asset for us. But I don't have a ton of guys to build around. So, I expect to use this draft to fill in at least one, maybe two, of those slots.

My pick at 1.31 is coming up, and there's a run-blocking OT I didn't really love, but who was #7 overall on the in-game big board, and looks solid enough, at least to play RT. So, if he slides to our pick at 1.31, maybe I do that? (He's a 2-3 guy, so that might force my hand out of using Kieth as the leader...but his 89 personality we never ideal, to be honest) Regardless, across these first 7 picks, I expect to land two linemen, or so. Might have to stick to the 6-7 group, even. Ugh.

[QuikSand]

Okay, in the first stages of free agency, our single biggest outstanding issue has been settled, in our direction. DE Owen McLeon is back - meaning we don't have to scramble to replace his 9 sacks, and equally important, we have him for a few more years as our chemistry leader for the D7 group. That puts a major worry to rest... good. He's solid, the pass rush is now pretty solid, and losing him would have created a pretty significant problem for us, short term.

Still awaiting progress toward our draft pick at 31. The high-rated OT is still there, I'm still fence-sitting about committing to a 2-3 group guy as a build-around and really tying my own hands with leadership choices.

[QuikSand]

Well, I thought I had a trade in hand to grab the pick at 1.28, but it fell through. So it goes.

At 1.32, I do land a guy who makes sense, given all my long term navel-gazing here... G Donald Foreman (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5971&p=54612&viewfull=1#post54612) won't have a big personality but he's from the 6-7 group, and if those big bars hold, he ought to be a plug-and-play starter for a long time. I'll give a quick look at a move to LT, but will be okay if he's just a high end guard for a long time.

[QuikSand]

Draft update - continuing to build along the defensive front... back to "best good fit available" over "guys who can actually help us win"

2.18 DT Pete Neil (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5971&p=54638&viewfull=1#post54638)

2.31 LB Tucker Brotzman (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5971&p=54655&viewfull=1#post54655)

I'm fine, thought not excited, with these picks... both are relative need positions (pass rusher more than DT per se, and all-around LB) so both guys should have little trouble finding a role for five years plus, barring a big collapse.

[QuikSand]

More draftees:

3.17 CB Richie Keeler (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5971&p=54681&viewfull=1#post54681) - two static bars nearly maxed, and ST close... hell, if he's meh save for an 85 in bump and special teams, he makes the team long term... I am unafraid to use bumps-only corners in my 1st and 10 defense.

3.31 DE Anthony McCormick (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5971&p=54698&viewfull=1#post54698) - another "big static bars" guy - his seem maxed to me and to the consensus view, so that could portend something good... if he's a DE3 eventually, great

4.16 G Donnie Darby (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5971&p=54716&viewfull=1#post54716) - run-first guard, fits our system... that's it, that's the sales pitch

5.15 RB Dashawn Lindasy (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5971&p=54751&viewfull=1#post54751) - actually trying for a RB1 here, he's got some semi-promising bars

[QuikSand]

Special Teams that could be... special

Alongside my efforts to develop chemistry and cohesion, why not add to the degree of difficulty, right? Let's see how special teams look long term.

Here are players I currently expect to stick around for the 5 years ahead, and who have enough on special teams to remain active and encouraged for ST play:

72/82 RB Harden
90/00 FB Lusignan
65/78 TE Austin
68/78 TE Carr
85/85 TE Weydahl
72/86 DE Baither
78/78 NT Calhoun
92/94 LB Rossini
66/66 LB Dandron
78/84 LB Randolph
77/77 LB Armstrong
85/88 CB Baskerville
82/82 CB Metzenbaum
94/94 CB Wordehoff

So... in a zero-injury league, I already have the pieces on the roster who could give us a possibly league-best collective ST rating. Like, we could have an average rating of 80 or so. And, incidentally, even the fringe-y guys on that list (FB Lusignan, TE Austin, DE Baither, CB Baskerville and Wordehoff) already all have the starts needed to stay on the team and contribute via chemistry, so they won't get bubbled for that reason.

I just need to stick with my five year plan, stick with these guys, add in even more good-fit rookies along the way, and they should become a major engine powering the team by then, and also helping us to ace special teams along the way.

[QuikSand]

As the draft has wrapped, we finish out the first stages of free agency. I make token efforts to retain a couple veterans, but lose out on TE Thomason. So it goes. If he made the team this year, it would be mainly to displace snaps for young guys - might make them cheaper to re-sign, but Thomason is not part of the 5 year plan, the three kids are. So... off he goes. CB Joel Givens is similarly situated - he's back on a salary-only 1yr deal, and his grasp of a roster slot is tentative. Right now, he's a decent CB2/3 caliber guy with a 99 personality match, so ordinarily he'd be a yes-yes-yes guy for me... but as a 9th year guy already he won't still be here when we want to be peaking, so... perhaps not.

[QuikSand]

Fun trade offer I have put out there:

BAL sends:
2109 BAL 2,3,4,5,6,7
2110 BAL 2,3,4,5,6,7
2111 BAL 2,3,4,5,6,7

YOU sends:
???

Who wants it? Come in and put a serious stamp on your team, here's the fast track to doing that.

[QuikSand]

My logic here is: I have loaded up with kids, and for the most part want to reduce my roster churn for the next few seasons. This seems like a way to do this... if I can get some more focused draft capital in this deal, then a bunch of my 23/37 guys can continue to develop, gain playing time, and be ready to contribute more seriously when this team is ready to peak.

We'll see.

[QuikSand]

Hmmm... looking at my rookie draft picks for the first time. Probably a "meh" class here. First look is disappointing.

[Chas in Cinti]

Is there a spot on the site to look? I saw your note and clicked your link to the roster and moved around quite a bit in the site and couldn't find the rookie class...

[QuikSand]

Nothing to look at, yet. Ben's site doesn't fully populate until after training camp, I believe. In-game there's a backdoor... from the "trade" page you can right click on rookies and see their red/green bars. They often depart meaningfully from the pre-draft blue/orange ranges.

My short take from doing this:
S Austin isn't as complete a player as I should get mid-1st
G Foreman looks good but not great, edge toward pass blocker, not maxed
DE McCormick could develop, will need to bump in preseason
RB Lindsay will be yet another 36/36 guy with decent bars, not awful
LB Brotzman looks like an eventual LB4/5 type, meh (could bump and excite)

[QuikSand]

We did pull off a big draft pick trade... all my 2-7 picks for the next three drafts are gone to Jacksonville, whose new owner wants to rebuild the whole roster. We get next year's 1st and their next two 2nds. That first could be early-ish, which would be nice.

[QuikSand]

Okay, draft and early FA processed, and now our post-draft pickups are in place. Big disappointment, as my back pocket method to lock up great DB chemistry for a long time fails me... my 242 lb LB Jay James (11/12 group, 73 Ldr, 92 Pers) cannot lose weight in camp, and therefore won't ever switch to play safety. Rats.

Need to look for an alternative plan, here's who we are building around... with "expected role a few years out" as the position listed.


Group Ldr/Prs Exp Role Name Notes
8/9 33/57 6 CB1/2 Sammie Metzenbaum could play safety too
8/9 72/99 2 CB4 Gregory Baskerville big bump, ST
8/9 21/98 3 CB3-5 Tony Rumans big zone, good dime guy
8/9 80/80 6 CB1/2 Alfred Cooley all-around solid coverage
8/9 62/55 5 CB3-5 Diego Wordehoff big zone. ST
11/12 6/10 2 CB4-6 Nicholas Barlow man, int, ST all solid
8/9 100/98 1 CB2-4 Richie Keeler big statics, please boom
8/9 31/68 6 S2/3 Malcolm Crane mediocre balanced
8/9 36/88 2 S2/3 Levi McGee maybe SS rotation
7/8 82/97 2 Bench Thomas Thomas some run/zone, weak
8/9 3/35 1 SS1 Cole Thomas Run D, bump, Int


So... bottom line is a few quick observations:

-We are obviously SUPER heavy in in the 8-9 group, meaning we presumably could build around a leader either the 7-8 or 11-12 groups. That is really good.

-Sadly, our rookie CB Keeler, who looks like a boom candidate to me, is so strong in Leadership that he will likely drown out anyone but a super-powered leader, eventually. And he's another 8-9 guy, so no connection with the rest of 'em. This is a thing I hate about the twists in FOF8, no way to tell if a guy's high personality will be an asset or liability. If this guy were an 11/12 or 7/8 he would be the answer, instead he's just another problem... like a guy we probably will have to cut/trade once he gets ripe.

In a perfect world, I'd stumble across a good fit guy who could hold the leadership through the last years with CB Cooley. Barring that, and assuming we eventually shake loose Keeler, it doesn't look like it's going to be too hard. My young core of 8/9 guys (CB Baskerville, Rumans, Wordehoff, and S McGee and Austin) have a max leadership of 72. Maybe the answer is already on my team, in the person of S Thomas Thomas... eventually his 82 leadership would win out over Baskerville's 72 plus one year of experience, though I confess I don't know when, exactly. If it's not until they are in 9th/8th seasons, that's too late to be helpful for sure. Ugh.

[QuikSand]

Following up... it would really suck to have to cut CB Baskerville to make chemistry work, but right now there might be no way around that. He's exactly the sort of player I really want for this - great personality fit, great special teams, and enough skill to be useful on the active roster beyond the return game. Dammit.

[QuikSand]

Okay, training camp has run... and this is unusual... nay, unprecedented:

Ravens rookie class ranked #1 in league (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5989&p=54859&viewfull=1#post54859)

By Ben's voodoo metrics, he apparently has my 3rd round DE McCormick tabbed for big things, and as the biggest impact player in this class. He's near the top of the league-wide "dandies" list who look incrementally better to a real scout than to the dimwit league scout. Great sign.

He's got my 2nd round DT Pete Neil tabbed as a "dud," and I don't recall what I liked about him - maybe my own scout graded him underrated or something. He looks like a wasted pick to me, too. CB Keeler also tagged as a "dud" and that might be okay, since he wasn't a long term prospect anyway after we saw he'd be a chemistry pain long term.

Pleased, have to be.

[QuikSand]

Cutdown to 60 notes:

I'm sloughing off TE Reish - he's a great leader for right now, but no fit with 6-7 QBs, and that's our lane of the future. Relative chaos at RB for now, but that could settle down later. Not sure I have a single player there whom I expect will be on the field in 3-5 years. FB Lusignan as a special teamer and chem uber-follower, but that's it. SOPh Harden has a nice bar profile and should get his chance this season, but with only 4 personality, he'll have to be a major asset to stay long term, especially since we're unlikely to land a superior leader for this group. Rooks Royals and Lindsey... we'll see, both are semi-promising. Looming in the background is FB-cum-TE Teddy Carr, who is up to a 7 in TE experience. IN theory, he could slide back to slot at FB, probably still play a lot at TE, and anchor the chemistry for that group as a 4/5 group with 70 Ldr, 85 Pers. Possible long term play there - but would push Harden to neutral. We'll see.

At TE, we have our all-set threesome, but an after-draft pickup OJ Welch is going to spring in preseason, and put himself into our plans. Chem might be a problem, though, he's a 6-7 guy with 82/93. Great follower, but a threat to wrest away the lead and mess things up.

WR, we are thin. Thinking this is the spot for the draft capital next year, almost no matter what's on the board. I ponied up for WR Victor Lester (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=81772), who really looks, to me, like a WR2 you start outside while another guy does the really heavy lifting. Instead, we're paying and using, him like a WR1. Okay, then. I'm not paying WR Richmond $15m/yr, he's a weak WR3, and wants to be paid like a WR2, not happening. Undrafted rookie Vecchio will make the team and hopefully be a long term ST asset, but a WR4 at best on a TE-heavy team, meh. This area still needs work for sure.

OL is the illustration of our long term thinking. Best guys now are C Castillo, LG Dielman, and LT Woolford, all in the 6-7 group. But in 3 years they could all be gone, and our new leadership will have a group to work around. My longer term OL cadre looks like this: G Foreman+Darby, T Peterson+Dotson. As the vets phase out, these guys will show up with cohesion and deep chemistry, even if only Grade B-C talent. One or two additions around them should have this group working just fine, even 5 years out.

DL: Well, this probably revolves around rookie McCormick now. We are in good shape for this year and next, with solid talent. But long term assets here are rookie DEs McCormick and maybe Whiting, soph specialist Baither, NT Calhoun and Prescott. If McCormick can be an anchor pass rusher in time, then we have enough to build around, if not, then pass-rushing is a priority for us in the continuing build.

LB: We are built around a 7-8 leader, to a man in both segments of the D7, and we look okay at LB. Inside, young guys Dandron (5th), Rossini (2nd), Brotzman (R) should be good enough for a long, long time. Outside, Randolph (2nd) is a low-personality stud, and Jay James (4th) is good enough to start, but better as a 3rd OLB I think. Another group we can sprinkle in the occasional rookie or free agent into, and be all set.

CB: I re-signed Metzenbaum, he's a 6th year guy but should fit fine with our chem, and may well be around for 3-5 more years now. As noted extensively above, the chemistry core here will be CB Baskerville, CB Rumans, CB Wordehoff, and maybe CB Stapleton (signed last stage on a flier). I'll assume Keeler is a castoff at some point before we come together completely. Basically another solid group, where one free agent to slot in as CB1/2 would make us just fine.

S: Not sure rookie Austin is going to be the star I wanted, but he ought to be good enough, and a long term SS asset. McGee (2nd) is good enough to start at FS. We'll give S Thomas Thomas a look this year, he could be a chemistry asset long term, otherwise, he likely won't fit into our plans. Crane (6th) is here now, but not important.

Basically, the guys who excite me with this plan are the relatively relatively unexciting guys on the roster who should stick around for a long time and become triple-threat assets from the bench: chemistry, cohesion, and special teams/single skills:

FB Lusignan (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=81704)
DE Tyrone Baither (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=83740)
LB Al Rossini (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=83059)
CB DIego Wordehoff (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=81476)

This is pretty fun. A good way, for me, to run out the clock on FOF 8.

[QuikSand]

Okay, preseason in the books. Draft still rated #1 overall -- granted that's with extra picks in rounds 1,2,3 but not anything in the first half of the first round. I'm okay with it all.

DE McCormick did indeed jump in preseason, and now looks like a solid asset. Not a superstar, but a guy who could be part of a 3-man pass rushing rotation down the line, I suspect. Great for a 3rd round pick.

S Cole Austin dipped from 68 to 61 potential by the league scout, and mine has him at 40/58, so we have to temper hopes. Probably a long term asset regardless, still has key ratings I like. But not a change-the-team player, and to take a safety in the mid-1st, that's the only way to justify expending the capital there. So, a mild miss.

RB Lindsay dropped 51-44 by league scout, mine says he's 37/50. He may have the inside track to start this year. Our other rookie Royals imploded, and our veteran Harden is so weak in personality, it would be hard to commit to him. Lindsay likely will get the better end of a 60/40 split, which might mean 200 carries.

G Foreman, our late 1st, dropped 11 by the league scout, but still looks okay. My scout says 37/69. Basically the same review as S Cole - okay, but not a value pick given the early selection. If he were a late 2nd rounder, I'd be thrilled.

G Darby is an interesting case, however. League scout says he slid 49 to 44. My scout (good) says he's a 30/58 prospect with 82 potential in run blocking. I suspect I will get him into the lineup right away, and hope I have a right guard for the next decade in him. Optimistic.

NT Neill is unexciting. Decent player, decent chemistry, but can I really commit to this guy long term? I doubt it. Likely a whiff.

My scout loved LB Brotzman, but now after a -10 move, less so. His chem profile 87/94 makes him valuable to us, though. I'll try to get him starts this year, and he likely ends up as our ILB3 - a sort of 30 tackle guy, with no special teams skill but good chem match and future leadership potential.

After-draft pickup WR Vecchio will make the team - he's nothing super special, but he'll be a great chemistry asset (68/90, sign matching the QB), can play special teams, and that's enough to stay for a decade. Here is the career arc I'd hope for from him (http://www.fof-ihof.com/playercard.php?playerid=64031). Hopefully for minsal the whole way.

CB Keeler was the guy who saddened me with his bad (well, great, but on the wrong sign) chemistry numbers... turns out not much of a loss. He's a bump only guy, my scout rates him 24/33 overall, and with no special teams he'd be at lest a marginal asset for us. Doesn't even make the BELCo rankings summary. Likely a cut.

DE Rico Whiting. 23/34 now, but 87 personality. Borderline call, bubbled.

TE OJ Whiting bumped by the league scout from 16/18 to 20/38, mine has him at 19/33. No one standout skill, without special teams assets he likely can't be a TE3 for us.

QB Richie Bryant, undrafted rookie, likely makes this team and sticks around, perhaps longer than Jimmy Mc. Why? It's a zero-injury league. Our starter is gonna start and play any game within reach. What good is QB2? Mentor and/or chemistry. Bryant is an 88/100 chem guy, so once he gets starts (this year, not at QB), he will be a 6-7 guy who could lead a group some day, but for now will just super-gel with our leaders from the 2-3 and 4-5 groups. Basically, this guy (and the WR) are the reason why I really should just be dumping off my 5-6-7 draft picks every year, in every league. With the way I build teams, I can do much more damage in the after-draft world (where I know more about the players) than i can during the draft where there's a massive fog of war. A perverse incentive, and partially specific to my own preferences, but so it goes.

This class isn't going to revolutionize our approach, but I think we accumulated some quality talent that can stick around. Probably 6 guys here who will still be on the team in 6-8 years, and that's not bad at all.

[QuikSand]

Side note... I manage the Ravens in the BELCo CCFL (http://ccfl.fof-belco.com/teampage.php?teamid=2) also. This year, I had gameplan/playbook problems, and after Ben exported my playbook, I decided to play it safe and install the TeddyTightEnds offense there, too. So far, so good - with a rookie QB (but a veteran team around him) we are 6-2 and on track for the postseason. We're still reeling a bit from a super-early retirement of a young QB prospect there, but the team around the QB has been very favorable, and we're getting good production from a cohesive and chem-heavy (duh) team.

[QuikSand]

Quick note - as I set up the active roster for this year, I think I'll create another metric to watch.

STIndex =
(Mean of ST ratings for active players encouraged to play ST +
Median of ST ratings for active players encouraged to play ST +
Lowest ST rating among active players encouraged to play ST)
/3

For us, this year, I'm encouraging 13 active players, with these ratings:

98 77 76
88 87 72
92 88 88 83
96 94 89

So, the mean is 86.8, the median is 88, the lowest is 72. STIndex = 82.3

I will keep an eye on this going forward for this team, and will also check after the regular season to see who actually got put in to play special teams. Even in a zero-injury league, I don't know whether 13 guys will play equal shares, or whether the team will dip into the not-encouraged gang. In theory we only need 9-11 players per play - I'd be pleased if, in this league, only 13 guys actually got used. I don't expect that, because, you know, reasons.

[QuikSand]

By the way...I'm assuming that 82+ is a BOSS number for STIndex. Possible to improve, but maybe not in another league that has injuries, without costing too much in talent.

[QuikSand]

{Morpheus Voice}
What if I told you...
-we decided to cut out two veteran linemen at LT and LG, after declines in preseason while inactive?
-we decided to go back to Jimmy Mc at QB for one last look, despite the offense being built around Teddy's skills?
-we remain thoroughly committed to the "down the road" mindset?

You'd guess... maybe 6-10? Me, too.

[QuikSand]

https://www.prowrestlingtees.com/pub/media/catalog/product/cache/image/e9c3970ab036de70892d86c6d221abfe/s/c/scotthall1018.png

So, we end up 9-6-1 and in the playoffs. Smoke and mirrors FTMFW!

GML: Baltimore Ravens 2108 (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampage.php?teamid=2)

Jimmy Mc - fine. He's an 80-rated passer at heart, and that's what he delivers for us. Runs for 600 yards, fine. Ratio of 24/24 is the bottom line, though, that's in vintage Jameis territory. He's okay, not the answer.

RB situation - Lindsay gets the larger share, but it's Harden who actually looks good with 5.8 ypc behind a very young line.

WR Lyons in the 11-formation slot does the most damage - bad roster management by me, I guess. Top Wrs all around 7 ypa, Weydahl over 9 but on only 34 targets, WTF am I doing? (I think I must have reversed him and Carr/Austin in some key formations)

On defense... both Ramon Tuholski and Ramon Calhoun earn pro bowl tickets, with over 30 sacks between them. Black t-shirts start showing up everywhere. It's awesome.

So, we get a wild card berth, and get to visit Pittsburgh in the postseason. I don't expect much, but we'll see how it goes.

[QuikSand]

(sorry for the delay...wrote up but didn't send until returning from star wars movie)

[QuikSand]

We manage a road in in the wild card round, but fall in the divisionals to Pyser's Patriots, a perennial strong team. KC, led by Jermessiah, gets their pass-crazy offense to the tiel game but loses to a more balanced Philly team (rgvicedo).

In the playoff stage, I had to cut T Peterson (angry) but signed a young G who might have a future with us. We'll try to re-sign Peterson this offseason if he's game.

[QuikSand]

No retirements, that's good. So the build-up continues. Hoping to keep excellent staff intact, but my OC is an obvious candidate to get poached.

[QuikSand]

Okay, today's file is delayed, but my mind is on this team. So, a few notes looking at this offseason.

We hold three picks: 1.5, 1.26, and 2.6 (payoff for our trade was good, I don't often get to pick in the "lottery" zone)

We bring back 36 players on contract, with over $230m in cap space, about 35% of the total cap. So, we could be players. I don't want to get stuck in fat contracts with older players, as our cohesion strategy will require that we overpay some marginal players who get into starting roles (it's just how FOF works).

I would really like to find an offensive lineman I can plug in, especially at tackle. I messed up last season and sat down T Gage Peterson, and he got angry. He's a free agent now, and likely will cost less than the $12m he was asking to extend last year... but I've lost the cohesion benefits since I released him after the regular season ended. G Matt Turnbull, however, should be good enough to re-sign as an RFA and we should be able to keep him around a while, I think, possibly as a starter if needed. So - we will be scouring the FA market for a guy who can play LT, and that is a potential draft target area as well.

As for the draft - I feel our top team need is really WR, so I will look closely at that group for my 5th overall pick. In general, picking high should be an opportunity to target the hard-to-fill positions, like QB and WR. If there's a monster left tackle who's a chemistry fit, that might push me off the one true path, I realize.

Ideal draft would probably look like WR, OT, CB, with good skills fits in each slot. But we haven't seen the draft file yet, so no clue whether the players are there to make that happen.

[QuikSand]

Restricted free agents we expect to re-sign, barring absurd contract demands
(with my guess on their longer term role)

G Matt Turnbull (OL 5/6)
T Amos Curry (long term chem problem, trade bait I'd hope)
LB Al Rossini (ILB 3, situational run stopper, ST star)
CB Tony Rumans (CB 4/5, ST, great chem guy)
QB Richie Bryant (QB2, possible switch to become 6/7 group leader some day)
WR Fernando Vecchio (WR 4/5)
WR Corwin Smith (inactive chem WR depth)
DE Tyronne Baither (DE 4, ST)

So, if I basically consider these guys all "signed" (except maybe T Curry, who might take the chem leadership and I'd have to cut him) - we're at around 43-44 players. So, only 10 to go. 3 draft picks who should all stick. That leaves something like 7 jobs open.

Kicker
Punter
Top-shelf PR
Top-shelf KR

If I get specialists above, then I really am looking at only 6 open slots. I want these guys to be useful for several years, and to help with chemistry - so ideally I'll be looking at:

-offensive players not too old to wear out soon
-defensive players either with starts or good enough to start this year

Talent-wise, I've already laid out our main needs: WR, OT, CB. I do still have CB Gabe Everett on the team - he's not a chem fit, but he is still a CB1 talent, and it's conceivable I decide to keep him around - he's only a 7th year guy, could have 4-5 more good years ahead. If I can trade him this year for draft picks, maybe even better. He is, at the moment, our chemistry leader in the group - a second strike against him staying. I'd eat $30m in bonus this year and next to move/cut him, but that money is committed either way. Might prove to be a tough call.

Incidentally, CB Sammie Metzenbaum took a pretty big hit in ratings last season. Ended up still being okay on field, but not great - he's no longer a guy I visualize as our CB1 in two or three seasons, maybe he stays and plays CB2 or 3, but he's not a top tier guy any more.

[QuikSand]

Special teams review:

Last year, I pushed a ton of good special teamers onto the field (even though our return men themselves were not great) - let's see how that worked out.

Punt Return Avg: 15.5 (3rd best, league average was 9.5)
Punt Return Avg allowed: 7.5 (t4th)
Kickoff Return average: 25.8 (11th, 23.7)
Kickoff Return Ave allowed: 18.9 (1st)

Okay, pretty good. Perhaps a better punter would help us in the return defense?

My primary return men last year was Kent Stapleton (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=84803) - we can improve on that role, too. I don't envision me taking a return man early, unless a great fit guy (like a WR) happens to also have those skills. But, in round two, a DB with standout return skills could be interesting for us, I guess. More likely, we'll just target somebody via free agency. Or, maybe in late free agency - with so many AI teams in this league, there are bound to be some RFAs who go without an extensions, or get cut due to cap trouble.

[QuikSand]

Two twists from the BELCo rundown of combine changes:

-QB Jimmy Mc is atop the list of improved combines
-TE Aurturo Weydahl is on the bad list

I believe these are trailing indicators - it's not that they predict a ratings change ahead, but they confirm a ratings change that presumably already happened. I don't see it, though, in either guy - both look the same, more or less, to the league scout as they did last year. Beats me.

I expect I will try to trade Jimmy Mc this offseason, but I doubt there's any interest. Still planning to go with TedddyTightEnds as my starter for the years ahead. Well, I suppose that's unless we land a QB with our early draft pick.

[QuikSand]

So, looking at the draft... my elation over having a top-5 pick has abated to some degree. If I really want to stick within my chemistry system, then I have a few options, but none truly thrilling. There's a DE who looks good, but not a maxed-out pass rusher. There's a WR who probably goes to AVAILABLE before me anyway, but he's a low-endurance type even if not. There's an OT but he's a 2-3 guy and we have all but settled on that as the leadership lane for our OL, so not a fit there without some work. Top CB would be a major reach there, and nobody else really jumps out. I'll likely either make a serious reach, or possibly trade down from the 1.5 pick.

[QuikSand]

...what sucks here is the OT is listed as "sociable." In older versions of FOF, I could interview him and come away with a sense of his leadership and personality. If that guy is actually a 95/95, then he'd be a GREAT FIT pick for us. But if he's a 25/95, then he's close to worthless for chemistry. When the developer semi-gutted chemistry in the game, this is one thing he took out. So, I'm stuck, and will likely just skip him.

[QuikSand]

WR is going to be an adventure for this team. Assuming I do not land a build-around guy at 1.5 (likely), then where are we at that position right now?

WR Victor Lester is our defacto WR1, but he's really better suited to being the 2nd option. Limited GD, more of a big play guy. I got 7 ypt from him last year, a tiny bit better with Teddy in there, but I don't think he's ever going to be a 1,400 yard target hog.

Gene Lyons (8th yr) and Don O'Neill (10th) were the next two guys with targets last year - neither one ought to be around much longer. Both are free agents, and I'm not looking to keep them really involved. Meaning - I need to act kinda quickly at the position, right?

Fernando Vecchio wants to get paid off a "starter" season, we'll keep him around and hopefully long term - but he's a WR4/ST type of guy, not a serious factor in the main passing game. Similarly, Corwin Smith is here and cheap and an 89 chem fit, but he's a down-the-bench guy.

That leaves me with a conundrum with Bernie Richmond. I dislike his bar profile, no real standout skills, everything is meh. Last season he got 90 targets for 691-4... another meh. And now he thinks he's a $12-15m guy. I hate dumping that kind of cap space into a player I don't like, but unless we land a long term asset in this draft (meaning an early pick) I don't see how we have much choice in the matter. I don't want new faces in important roles three seasons from now, I want guys who know the drill here (aka cohesion).

[QuikSand]

...also, chemistry woes atop the WR/TE group. Right now, TE Teddy Carr is currently our leader - he's a 4/5 guy with 70/85...really not ideal. If he remains the leader, that neuters the fit with WRs Lester and Vecchio, but he would still click with the others in my plans: TEs Weydahl and Austin, and WRs Smith and Richmond. Not ideal, but it's looking hard to work around it. I'd prefer a top-shelf 2/3 group leader, but there just are not many such guys around.

[QuikSand]

My 1.5 pick is on the clock. The top two WRs are gone. My top "good fit" options appear to be the next WR out there (bit of a reach I think), a good DE who's a more conventional 3-4 DE than I really like, and I guess a cover corner down the big board some ways. If I sit tight I likely just bite the bullet and take the receiver.

[QuikSand]

Okay, we swing a deal. Inside the division, which I don't love, but anyway...

BAL sends 1.5

CIN sends
1.20
next year's CIN 1st
CB Douglas

So, we drop down in the 1st round this year. I expect that will drop my top choices off my list, naturally - a CB seems like a possibility now.

The CB we get from Cinti (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=83128), no surprise, is going to be a keystone guy for my chemistry system - he's an 11-12 guy with 95 Leadership and 73 personality. I'd prefer more in the personality department, but given the difficulty I had finding anyone to take over, I'm glad to bring him aboard. He will want a fat extension, but he'll be a build-around player. Maybe a SS for us (near max in Run D and zone), not sure yet.

[QuikSand]

Cinti gets a new franchise QB out of the deal, which is tough to turn down for them. Guy looks good - I don't know why 3 AI teams passed on him, but that played into me deciding to not even look closely.

[QuikSand]

The file is delayed today... and my fingernails are in danger. I'm more anxious than usual to see if we landed our top FA quarry. Details TBA.

[QuikSand]

So, I'll take a look at our DB group now - because our chemistry woes have now been abated with the trade for CB Douglas. That ought to lock him up as our long term group leader (95 leadership) for the foreseeable future.

The new question that poses is - can he overtake CB Everett, rendering him neutral and potentially keep-able? I had been assuming that Everett had to go because his leadership (7th/76Ldr) was going to be too much for my presumed long-term leader (SS Thomas, 3rd/82Ldr) to ever eclipse. I wish I knew exactly when Everett would yield to Douglas - my guess is it will be in two more years (6/95 > 8+/75) but I could be off by a year either way. That means I would probably need to make a re-signing decision first, and only then hopefully see Everett drop out of the picture.

Here's what kinda sucks with no cap constraints... there's really no market for a guy like Everett. I paid him like a monster, I'd be eating $60m in signing bonus, he remains a very solid CB1, and a receiving team would get him at only $18m (market value maybe $30-40m?) but since most teams have plenty of cap space, who cares?

Anyway, with Douglas as the leader, I'll lay out the plan from here:


Group Ldr/Prs Exp Role Name Notes
8/9 33/57 7 CB2/3 Sammie Metzenbaum could play safety too
8/9 72/99 3 CB4 Gregory Baskerville big bump, ST
8/9 21/98 4 CB3-5 Tony Rumans big zone, good dime guy
8/9 62/55 6 CB3-5 Diego Wordehoff big zone. ST
11/12 6/10 3 CB4-6 Nicholas Barlow release... no longer a fit for our leader
8/9 100/98 2 CB2-4 Richie Keeler big statics, please boom
8/9 31/68 5 S2/3 Malcolm Crane mediocre balanced... bubble guy as FA now
8/9 36/88 3 S2/3 Levi McGee maybe SS rotation
7/8 82/97 3 Bench Thomas Thomas some run/zone, weak
8/9 3/35 2 SS2 Cole Thomas Run D, bump, Int
11/12 95/73 4 SS1 Riley Douglas Rotation SS, chemistry leader


This puts S Thomas Thomas onto the bench, likely forever. Hey, in a zero injury league, somebody has to ride the pine. Might as well be a dude with his starts in hand, no skills top merit a real contract, and a 97 personality... right?

On the other hand, CB Barlow will be the odd man out. Kinda weird skills anyhow (90+ man but weak in other coverages? what do I do with a guy like that?) and very weak in chemistry anyhow... he'll be a fairly easy goodbye.

[QuikSand]

Okay, FA stage has run. We got our guy.

I didn't know how much to bid on a guy I had to have. Here he is: LB Jermaine Tanner (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=82165). He's our dream date.

First... we're kinda thin at LB. Here's a firmer 1st round pick, not a stud at tackling, but great in coverage., and in case "play diagnosis" means something vaguely football-ish, then he's great in that too. I like it.

Second... he's a special teams ace. Like a 100. Since I am actively trying to build up that aspect of the team, I targeted him for that, too. Great.

Third... he's a max endurance guy, and I am increasingly persuaded that means a lot. So, he can line up on pretty much every play for us, I like that, too, as it takes pressure off some of my lower-skill special teams guys in the LB group - they won't have to play as much real D.

And fourth... chemistry, duh. Check this dude out. He's in the 7-8 group, which is what I currently build my D7 around. Rated 88 in Leadership, so once be becomes our leader, he'll likely stick. And he's a 98 personality - a chemistry demigod, basically.

Most important possible signing for our chemistry, and for our entire team goals, basically. I don't have to spend an early draft pick at LB any time soon, we now have a rotation I can live with for years to come.

How much is this dude worth to us? Beats me. I figured the league would pay $30-something. I ponied up $52m/yr, way overpaying, but I couldn't leave it to chance. Too important.

edit to add: he's already capable of being our group leader, so I have flexibility with my old DE McCleon - he's out current leader, but in his 10th season is fading. Only $6m in base salary, but he'll be a bubble guy, likely.

[QuikSand]

Another free agent signing... into the "we'll see" category. WR Moe Bernal (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=81833)

So, he's not a chem leader... but he'd be an uber-follower if we ended up arranging to have a 2-3 group leader. The J-E-T-S-JetsJetsJets didn't even use him, after spending a 3rd round pick on him, so he's an unknown producer. My experience is that WRs with really low "Route Running" tend to get lost, even if you try to fold them in. In the real NFL, I kinda like a guy with 90 Big Play Receiving and 4.43 speed (well, the equivalent skills) to line up outside and "keep the defense honest." I have no idea if that means anything at all in FOF 8, to be candid.

So... what do we do with this clown? I don't know. 5th year guy, could be around a while. This year he could line up as a pure split end and do that "honest" thing all day, I guess. If he's not a chem fit (i.e. if we just decide to settle for TE Barr as our leader, in the 4-5 group) then he won't contribute there at all.

Fortunately, his contract is team-friendly... he's all salary, min bonus. So, he's genuinely in the "we'll see" column. Given the state of affairs for us at WR, it's good to have an option. Now we do.

[QuikSand]

Okay, we're a few picks away from our first selection in the draft at 1.20. In theory, I want to be targeting need positions at this point, as I am trying to finalize "the team" we want to use for the five year plan idea.

My honest assessment of needs for the medium term is:

WR1
EDGE1
LT
CB1
WR3
EDGE2
RBserious
PRstud
KRstud

As I sit looking at the draft, I think there's a good fit CB1 available. And the best WR available looks to me like he's a low-end WR1, but more likely a WR2/3 guy. So, if both remain available, that will be a conundrum. If I keep turning away from the "best receiver available" I'll end up with a team of nobodies in our WR corps, and that just won't work for being a dominant team.

[QuikSand]

More news, as our phone lines are burning up...

IND sends pick 1.1 from this draft (used to select WR Brad Franz)

BAL sends pick 1.26 and 2110 BAL 1st


Indianapolis took my top WR with the first pick, then the owner showed up and confessed it was a mis-click while he was populating the conscriptor. I dropped hi a line, and we worked out this deal. So, we should have a legit WR from this draft class after all... now to decide whether to reinforce at WR or attend to other needs with the pick at 1.20, coming soon.

[QuikSand]

WR Brad Franz (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5995&p=54933&viewfull=1#post54933)

Here's the WR in the draft thread... not your typical #1 overall wideout, but if those bars hold he should be "good enough" and right now that's what my team really needs. If he ends up nearly maxed out in RR, BPR, and AvoidDrops... great.

[QuikSand]

And our top pick - I play it "safe" and go with the need position. We take a "Small" cover man, hoping he can step in as a CB1 in mostly bump coverage.

http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5995&p=54970&viewfull=1#post54970

My scout maxes him out in both bump and play diagnosis. Upside is he's a single-coverage guy either against WR1 or WR2.

The WR I was looking at might not be a chem fit after all - my leadership plan at the WR/TE group remains pretty fluid (not certain whether the leader will be a 2-3 or a 4-5 guy). So, I backed off - but also making the deal for Franz let me back off there a bit.

[QuikSand]

And so, the "team need" list now looks like this, after two draft picks acquired:

EDGE1
LT
CB1
WR3
EDGE2
Cfuture
RBserious
PRstud
KRstud

[QuikSand]

Okay, with our final pick in this draft, we target a limited-skills DE whom my scouts graded as "underrated."

http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5995&p=54997&viewfull=1#post54997

Being realistic, this might at best target my EDGE2 (3?) role from my list of needs... the chances that this guy becomes a main threat for us seem slim. I passed over a reach receiver who looked like a good fit in the slot for us - but I feel like that role is pretty easy to fill in other ways.

[QuikSand]

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/c9/Rush_2112.jpg/220px-Rush_2112.jpg

Okay, draft is effectively over. I'm still pursuing some guys in free agency, probably have another half dozed impactful signings and re-signings. But we mostly know where we are with this roster now. Let's have a look at what we think this roster will look like this year, and during the presumed PEAK years.

Helpful link: Roster needs (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampagerosterneeds.php?teamid=2)


ROLE 2109 Starter 2112+ Plan
QB1 Teddy Farrell TeddyTightEnds4Lyfe
QB2 JimmyMc Richie Bryant (100 Pers)

RB1 Roger Harden ?
RB2 DeShawn Lindsey Lindsay?
RB3 Return man or ST stud?
FB Erric Stai J Lusignan (Pers 86, ST 98)
Gimp Dewalters 4/5,93 Dewalters 4/5,93

TE1 A Weydahl A Weydahl
TE2 T Carr T Carr
TE3 C Austin Austin?

FL V Lester B Franz(?)
SE B Franz V Lester
SLOT ? ?
WR4 M Bernal? M Bernal?
WR5 F Vecchio F Vecchio?
Gimp C Smith C Smith

C E Castillo Castillo?
LG D Foreman D Foreman
RG D Darby D Darby?
G Turnbull? Turnbull?
LT J Dotson ?
RT A Curry? ?
Gimp Aydelotte Aydelotte?
DE1 R Tuholski ?
DE2 A McCormick A McCormick?
DE3 A Humphrey A Humphrey?
NT1 R Calhoun R Calhoun
NT2 M Prescott M Prescott
DL P Neill P Neill?
Gimp T Baither T Baither

ILB1 J Tanner J Tanner 7/8,98
ILB2 T Brotzman T Brotzman?
ILB3 A Rossini A Rossini
ILB4 J Dandron ? J Dandron ?
SLB R Randolph R Randolph
WLB J James J James ?
OLB3 ? ?

CB1 Everett D Small ?
CB2 Metzenbaum ? Baskerville ?
NB D Wordehoff D Wordehoff
DB Baskerville Rumans
CB5 Rumans ?
SS1 R Douglas R Douglas 11/12,73
SS2 C Austin C Austin
FS1 L McGee L McGee?

KR K Stapleton? ?
PR K Stapleton? ?


That's a handy visual (for you, but also for me) on my thinking right now. Every question mark with no player is a fairly wide-open competition, every player with a question mark is written in pencil as we try to lock in for cohesion. We do have three early draft picks in the next two drafts, so presumably we can target some of those slots with those picks.

I have had luck in the past finding one or two undrafted rookies who make the team, and I'm open to that here, too. This is probably the last season I'll be semi-open to getting young players some playing time to make chemistry click... meaning it will be harder to get am end-of-bench job, on defense especially, after this year.

[QuikSand]

Well, in FA 6-7, we have some disappointment - but at least that settles a short term question. I had been the only team pursuing a free agent lineman who could have stepped in as our new chemistry leader from the 4/5 group. That uncertainty kept me from drafting a 4/5 lineman in this draft (whom I liked more than the DE we took at 2.6)... so it goes. So, we will remain on track ot build around our 2-3 group leader there (LT Joey Dotson (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=83627)). He will likely be our first guy where we are totally duty bound to massively overpay for chem/coh benefits. (I need a single shorthand word for "chemistry and cohesion" here) He's obviously not much of a player, but FOF factors "starting experience" into its formula for contract demands, so he will want to get paid. I really don't have another good option, and I don't want to risk angering him - I really cannot afford to have to cut an angry keystone player. So, he'll probably get a fat contract after this season - like $7m/yr or so, what he's demanding now, despite his skills being more of a minsal caliber. Can we start him long term at left tackle? I don't see any way I am doing that when I want this team to be "peaking" so the pressure is really on to come up with a plan at OT. RT Amos Curry is a better player, and (I think) good enough to actually play, but he'd take over the group leadership and I don't want that (he's a 6/7 guy, would be neutral with many of our key guys).

I also missed out on a quality, but not superstar, DT talent. I saw a guy I could rotate into both DT/DE slots, and would have been a good personality fit. Ben's Atlanta team got him... same guy was in free agency last year and we got outbid by an AVAILABLE team who paid a 3yr fat bonus offer and then cut him, naturally. Anyway... I miss out, not a crisis. 5th year guy, would have been a good fit, but I'm going to need my cap space for dumb extensions in time.

Not much left to watch, really. I'm still after some role players, but no major drama left. That OL leader and DT were the last two really consequential guys I was targeting.

[QuikSand]

Roster update:

49 players signed
01 RFAs expected to re-sign (c'mon Tyronne, nobody else wants your ass)
11 FAs where we're the current top bidder
03 draft picks coming aboard
---
64 players heading into late free agency

I honestly thought this was going to be a year of roster moderation... but here I am again, likely toeing the 7--player line for camp again. I did pick up some fringe guys here and there. I also have players like DE Owen McCleon sitting on the wrong side of a mental "bubble" already. So, it won't be a total crisis to cut down... we'll keep the 2112 vision in mind.

[QuikSand]

Quick note - as I set up the active roster for this year, I think I'll create another metric to watch.

STIndex =
(Mean of ST ratings for active players encouraged to play ST +
Median of ST ratings for active players encouraged to play ST +
Lowest ST rating among active players encouraged to play ST)
/3

For us, this year, I'm encouraging 13 active players, with these ratings:

98 77 76
88 87 72
92 88 88 83
96 94 89

So, the mean is 86.8, the median is 88, the lowest is 72. STIndex = 82.3

I will keep an eye on this going forward for this team, and will also check after the regular season to see who actually got put in to play special teams. Even in a zero-injury league, I don't know whether 13 guys will play equal shares, or whether the team will dip into the not-encouraged gang. In theory we only need 9-11 players per play - I'd be pleased if, in this league, only 13 guys actually got used. I don't expect that, because, you know, reasons.

Ok, getting back to this. I deliberately had only 13 active players set to "encouraged" to play special teams. In a zero-injury league, that seems like it would be "enough." However, maybe the team pushes some OL into the role on kicks/punts, that sort of thing. Might be somewhat beyond our control.

Let's see who actually played: Link, assuming uploaded image fails as usual (https://pasteboard.co/INYpcVH.png)

https://pasteboard.co/INYpcVH.png

Okay... an uneven distribution. Sorted by ST plays, I'll recite the current ST ratings for the players in that order:

88 75 96 92 77 88 87 81 94 92 18(returner) 98 88 83 snapper OL punter OL OL kicker 78 24

Okay, that took a pretty long time until we got into the true "rando" territory. LB Brotzman seemed like the "next man up" for some reason. If our regulars logged 200-300 ST snaps, Brotzman got around 30. I'll declare victory there - not bad at all. (I kinda wanna check to see if LB Armstrong and his 75 ST rating was "encouraged" - he got a few snaps but fewer than Brotzman, that seems wrong... but again, on the margin overall)

So... if the game is going to force my guards to play special teams, maybe we don't even need to go 13 players deep as "encouraged" there? When kicking, we have a K/P, a snapper, and it looks like 1-2 guards... so only 7-8 guys needed. When returning, we need 10. Hmmmm. Could we get by with only 10 guys designated to play special teams, trying to replace those 77s with 94s?

[QuikSand]

So, if you're going "all out" on special teams, is there a tiny angle to position-switching a couple of high-ST tight ends to slot as guard, remain active, and hopefully be the guys called on to do punt/kick plays? (I'm assuming that the game does some sort of "cloud" rating-measurement as a way to modify the play outcomes... could you hide some special teamers as guards for that purpose?)

Good god, do I/we need a new game.

[QuikSand]

FA 8-9 is active in volume, but low in excitement.

SE Collin Nelson
FA Stage 8
signed as an unrestricted free agent from Green Bay: 2yrs, $7,100,000.
K Austin Cortez
FA Stage 8
re-signed as an unrestricted free agent
P Arturo Dunn
FA Stage 8
signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $6,710,000.
SE Don O'Neill
FA Stage 9
re-signed as an unrestricted free agent
WILB Silas Cobb
FA Stage 9
turned down a contract offer: 2yrs, $7,100,000.
LT Ty Atkins
FA Stage 9
signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $7,100,000.
SLB Tyler Dirnabauer
FA Stage 9
turned down a contract offer: 3yrs, $66,000,000.
RG Rufus Stephens
FA Stage 9
signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,200,000.

A lot of minsal fill-ins here, most won't make it to preseason, I reckon. WR O'Neill isn't our long term answer as WR leader, but I wish I had a 2/3 guy to west the lead away from him and we could keep him around - he's a KR and ST guy, pretty solid at both, and this would be year 4 with us. Alas, he's a patch-over option for us, at the moment.

T Atkins is a high-personality guy, but a 5th year player- hard to imagine giving him a year of starts given the late start. G Stephens is a 2nd year guy, has a better case as a long term asset despite only 83 personality.

WR Collin Nelson could be a long term hold. 78 special teams would be an asset on most teams - but probably not this one. He's at best a WR5 sort of guy.

LB Dirnbauer was a roll-the-dice guy... weird LB with a Run D void but near-max PR Tech. Might have been a situational pass rusher. I had a sort of fancy that we'd get 11 sacks from him and trade him off -- alas, someone offered him a legit offer instead of my no-bonus nonsense.

DE Baither will sign on the next stage, I'm done haggling.

[QuikSand]

Wrapping up free agency will be uneventful for us. I'm having a little fun playing around with the draft tool - sorting through undrafted rookies, looking for good fits. So far, I have one guy identified as a possible target - but we'll have a clearer clue after we get to the stage when they are viewable and sortable in-game. (It's so frustrating not having chemistry indicators during the draft)

[QuikSand]

Should we cut Jimmy Mc?

There's an interesting question, honestly. If this were an ordinary league with injuries, then it's not much of a question. He's a guy who can run the offense pretty well, and after his last season he thinks he's a $25m/yr sort of guy. A value, under-market asset we have locked up for two more years.

That said... this is a zero injury league. So, what use is a backup QB? Hard to say. Jimmy Mc (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=81617) is a 4/5 guy, meaning he will have an affinity with two of our leader, but it appears not all three. But if we're gonna talk chemistry, then Richie Bryant (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=84069) is an obviously superior option. Bryant is a 10 personality guy, in the same chem group as TeddyTightEnds, so he will click for life - and will probably never really aspire to be anything more than a backup.

So... if Jimmy isn't going to play anytime soon, what is the point of keeping him around? I trade blocked him, but nobody's going to trade for a 30-rated player, regardless of his production. So, do we keep him around out of sentimentality? I don't know. At some point, we'll get cap pressure trying to re-sign all these marginal players... if Jimmy is still around as a $10m player the pressure will build to dump him. So, why not beat the rush and do it now?

Obvious divergence between real football and a computer game here. Would Jacksonville just release, say, Gardner Minshew? No chance. Not sure who, in the real world, would be a more apt comparison.

[QuikSand]

Another interesting bubble guy: CB Kent Stapleton (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=84803)

What do we do with a guy like this?

The case for keeping him: He's got 96 personality, and this team needs guys to stay around, gain cohesion, and add to chemistry the whole time. I have locked in a chem leader who doesn't have tip-top personality, so to max things out I really want guys like KS with huge personality clicks. In time, with some years of cohesion, he could be useful on the field, because of that big interceptions bar. And he can return punts and kicks in a pinch.

The case for cutting him: In order to make his chemistry useful, he needs starts. We're not in the business of just handing out a half season or more of starts to nobodies - and this guy is a literal void in both bump and zone. He literally cannot cover anyone. Sure, he has return skills...but a 40 rating isn't a ton better than any old bum out there. I am bound to really go after a guy with serious return bars, leaving this guy as a non-special-teams asset with nothing but personality. Easier just to load up with offensive benchwarmers, it's easier to manufacture starts for them.

[QuikSand]

Okay, first look at the rookies.

Solid news: the BELCO ratings put our draft #13 overall, despite being only three guys. That's okay, but with pick 1.1 there it probably ought to be better.

My early look says:

WR Franz - well-developed, BPR 86, RR projects to 90-ish... he'll be another marginal WR1/2 guy... not really a 1.1-worthy talent, and arguably not worth the trade-up, but he's a chem fit and we are going to feed him the ball

CB Small - pretty much what I expected, the CB class was deep, he's a solid starter, likely a future CB1 for us, bump at 73/96 and good across but nothing fully maxed-out

DE Humphrey - okay, basically a good look, he projects into the 70s in the first three bars, with precious little underneath... still hoping he becomes a long term DE3 for us, not thrilling, but he didn't completely disappear

So... okay. We have bodies, if not superstars, at three important need positions. Nothing I see here is making me go back and edit the long term vision for these position groups. Well, I guess Franz and Lester now look like pretty similar players, so for them to be our WR1 and WR2 gets weird-ish. Neither guy is really jacked in getting downfield, which I'd prefer all things considered. We could just keep pumping our tight ends with short stuff, and reserve the WRs for downfield looks.

Okay, then, that's the draft class per se. Now we get to flip through the misfit toys, where most years I find one or two good fits. It will be interesting how many of those guys were ones I located by using the draft tool - that's always been frustrating to me, when I find an undrafted rookie I like a lot better than then guys I actually selected in rounds 5-6-7 of that draft.

[QuikSand]

(That's a lot of okays for one post)

[QuikSand]

Whoa boy. An unpleasant surprise as I look at the chemistry profiles of my rookies. Lessee here...

WR Franz Leadership 13, Personality 18

DE Alec Humphrey 52, 2

CB Donnell Small 100, 33

Oh my god, Small is a disaster for us. High leadership, and low personality. he cannot be allowed to become our leader, so that effectively caps his time with us. Dammit. The others are so low in personality, they'll be of limited use for chemistry purposes. That much we saw coming, more or less, but... dammit.

[QuikSand]

It has been quite some time since I fiddled with gameplanning very much, but I have been doing a bit, which may have some application for this league, in time.

Over in the IHOF, I have a team that (shocked look here) is very high chemistry and pretty high cohesion. Yeah, I know, right?

Anyway...I have a guy on that team who's the sort i like to keep around, but really don't know what to do with: WR Rusty Hojnacki (http://www.fof-ihof.com/playercard.php?playerid=64031)

He's a guy we grabbed at the end of his rookie year, as a free agent (I guess we missed the playoffs that season, and had a free shot at some young'ns). Anyway now he's a 10th year guy, has big cohesion with us, a 94 personality fit, and can play special teams. So, that's all good. He cannot, however, seem to do much of anything in terms of "playing wide receiver." What use is this guy?

He's obviously good for chem, regardless. But the special teams and cohesion stuff only tips the scales if he's active. So, ST sure, but do we really want to put him onto the field at receiver just to boost unit cohesion? probably not, right?

Okay, revelation time. What about setting up a formation (or two) where one receiver slot is basically just not going to get targets? That was, I could set up Rusty as the R (or whatever), he'd be on the field and I'd get that big 10-year cohesion bonus, but wouldn't have to worry about seeing a gamelog with that stiff getting 6 targets for 1 catch and 7 yards. Now, that seems interesting... could help keep my legit WRs fresh, too.

I'm going to give it a shot in the IHOF, with this guy, and see if it manages to connect properly. I'm intrigued...

[QuikSand]

Two fun things I noticed on Rusty's player page above...

-he actually has been targeted 3 times in his career, and has 2 catches for 74 yards... not bad for an apparent hobo

-looks like we had to overcome an obvious "let's go fuck around with the chemistry guy" contract offer, obviously full of smoke, from one of the usual suspects... I just need to be aware of that sort of thing playing the way I do

[QuikSand]

Late free agency, in one swoop:

Most importantly, whew. Apparently I never sent in my file for early FA 9-12, and we have now dodged the two bullets I created by doing so. No holdouts, and we re-upped with DE Tyronne Baither. He's a young high-ST high-chem guy who wanted a decent offer in early free agency. I had succumbed to his demands, but neglected to send in that file... so he became an open free agent. Fortunately, he can't really "play football" so nobody else was interested, and he's back for a 2yr ending-with-minsal deal.

Past that, we landed a few more camp bodies. BEL Transactions page (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampagetransactions.php?teamid=2)

Notable here:

Why pay LB Shockey (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=84737) a serious one year deal? He's already got starts to make his good affinity active. And he'll be a RFA next year after a season on our bench. That's why. Maybe he's a long term asset, but a young guy with a strong affinity who doesn't need to be force-fed starts? Yes, please.

Among the rookies, I think T Borelli (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=85274) is the most interesting. My scout makes that Run Blocking bar at 19/96. Who knows what this guy actually is, maybe nothing. If that bar looks shaky, then we won't bother with him - he's not a serious chemistry asset, w/personality only 12. But if that looks legit, he could be our C of the future.

[QuikSand]

Ackshually, WR Trey Pote (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=85123) will get a legitimate look in camp. He's a guy I likely would have drafted in round 4 or so - return skills, special teams, and a good chem fit. We'll see how he looks after preseason, but I reckon he survives the cutdown to 60 at least.

[QuikSand]

Ok, thread keeps humming along, for better or for worse.

Training Camp in the bag. The BELCo website always has a list of "dandies" and "duds" (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6011&p=55212&viewfull=1#post55212) at this point - DE Alec Humphrey is near the top of the dandies list, that's really good news, I was getting fearful we blew that pick... so maybe not. And THREE of our undrafted rookies made the list, also. How bout that.

So, we might end up with a top-half rookie class despite trading down to only three early picks. Seriously, this has to be something I consider doing all the damned time. My strike rate with later picks is just not good enough to merit staying there regularly. Maybe I try again in a season or two to deal away my 2-3-5-6-7 for three seasons... keeping the 4th rounder for specialists and intriguing reaches, that sort of thing. Will definitely consider.

[QuikSand]

Oh, awesome. The RB I grabbed after the draft, and who shows up as a "dandy" is a red flag guy. I can't see that lasting here... is there likely any market for a guy like that next offseason? Dubious at best. He likely gets cut. Damn.

[QuikSand]

Cut down to 60... some intrigue here as we have some younger players I'd like to get to preseason. So, we'll slide back into 2112 thinking now - some of these cuts are long-term rather than short-term.

Like... we currently have 14 guys signed on the OL. Really, Quik? Really? JT Vinci is a pass-blocking center (not my fave combo) in his 7th year and a great chem fit... but would he be a starter in 2112? Even if/when Castillo disintegrates or quits, I doubt I'd start Vinci - I just prefer a road grader there. So, despite being a signing I liked at the time, he might not even make it to preseason.

Chemistry will be my guide here, we have locked in LT Joey Dotson as our leader, but he might not even start anytime soon - if UDFA Booker bumps in camp like I think, he might get the start at LT. G is solid with three guys I like (Foreman supposed to be the stud, Darby and Turnbull solid), and at C we have current Stud Ezekiel Castillo backed up by promising run blockers Guthrie and Borelli, both of whom would need starts to click). That's 9 guys, more than I typically would carry.

At WR/TE, my hopes of moving a young C over to TE to become the group leader have been dashed - so I might end up with a 2/3 guy with only 80 personality taking the league mid-season. Less than ideal. but best I can do here, I fear.

Given my previous deep dive into special teams, I'm now looking again at all these guys with a nice-looking 6- or 70 there, and wondering if I should be considering that an actual asset. If I am only going to encourage 10-11 active players, then the cutoff on this team (stocked with ST studs) is going to be 80 or more. So, not much diff between 65 and 5. Will factor that in - does that leave a young WR like Vecchio on the bubble? He looks good in the surface... 90 personality and 69/74 special teams. But if he end up inactive... no harm done, but we wouldn't even put him on the field, he might as well not have those non-zero bars. Don't know for sure. WR Collin Nelson same - signed as a 5th year guy, 51 pers and 79 ST, seemed great. Now... useless?

Okay, not a ton of drama... but we're down to 60, and preseason ought to be pretty interesting for a few of these young guys. Who earns "starts" this year to lock in a 2112 roster spot?

[Chas in Cinti]

Digging the approach and the depth of analysis... thanks for continuing to share...

[tzach]

Okay, revelation time. What about setting up a formation (or two) where one receiver slot is basically just not going to get targets? That was, I could set up Rusty as the R (or whatever), he'd be on the field and I'd get that big 10-year cohesion bonus, but wouldn't have to worry about seeing a gamelog with that stiff getting 6 targets for 1 catch and 7 yards. Now, that seems interesting... could help keep my legit WRs fresh, too.

I'm going to give it a shot in the IHOF, with this guy, and see if it manages to connect properly. I'm intrigued...


very good points, quik. i've used this approach in IHOF with TOR in 2074-2078, when i didn't have 3 receivers. you don't need to go to no targets -- i think an optimal number of targets for a 30-rated slot WR with lowish route running is around 50-60 per season, so 3-4 per game. i currently use this approach with TEs in IHOF.

[QuikSand]

very good points, quik. i've used this approach in IHOF with TOR in 2074-2078, when i didn't have 3 receivers. you don't need to go to no targets -- i think an optimal number of targets for a 30-rated slot WR with lowish route running is around 50-60 per season, so 3-4 per game. i currently use this approach with TEs in IHOF.

So, agreed on a low-RR guy with some other talents. That's more or less my plan this year for [url=http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=81833]Bernal[/url.] Here, however, I'm talking about a complete no-talent payer - whose only merit is solid special teams and his impressive staying power on the roster. For him, I think 50 targets would be silly... I'd rather he ended up with 5.

[QuikSand]

Digging the approach and the depth of analysis... thanks for continuing to share...

all for you, my man

[QuikSand]

Cutting down to 53 now.

A pure 2112 approach dictates that we release Jimmy Mc. He is not good enough to attract a trade offer. He wants to be paid $40m/yr after a mediocre starting season, so it looks like at most he'd stay with us this season and next. And he's 3rd best in affinities at the QB position. I'm not starting with that, but it's in play. Sadly.

The Turk visits:
9th yr FB Erric Stai - ratings tumbled, he's not a 2112 guy anyhow
RFA WR Trey Pote - 2 personality does him in, not the answer at KR
10th yr DE Owen McCleon, fading and now have better chem leader
RFA LB Jose Jones - just not good enough to push into starts
...that was pretty easy, down to 56...
RFA DE Scott Lynn - just not enough starts to go around for meh pass rushers
6th yr LB Jeffrey Dandron - usable guy, but LB6 without ST, nope
...ugh...Jimmy Mc? Eat $60m in dead cap hit and cut CB Everett?
2nd yr CB Kent Stapleton - have another PR, easier to get his chem working

Okay, then. The first play of each game is going to look like a freak show, but the 2112 team is starting to come together. I'm going to start rookie free agent Willie Booker at left tackle - that's not an important position, right? Sadly, RT Gage Peterson faded in preseason, so we're even worse off at OT than I had expected. Might be our #1 need, at least one build-around tackle.

Jimmy Mc stays, so does CB Everett. Everett will play, Jimmy will watch.

So, this year... probably the same ballpark as last year, I'd think. I believe Teddy is a better skills fit for this team, so we might be able to churn out a 90-90 passer rating from him on 4200 yards or so. Weydahl ought to get a lot of looks. I'll try to keep the rookie WR in the mix, too, as well as Bernal here and there. Trying to use players wisely, I really feel the lack of a true GD stud - all my top receivers are more BPR types, a bit of a mismatch.

We'll hope for 10 wins, but won't be shocked if it's 8.

[QuikSand]

Regular season in the books.

Season Stats (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampage.php?teamid=2)

Hmmm, what went wrong? -8 on turnovers, that's not great. Running game surprisingly anemic - what happened? Pass defense was not great - team YPA allowed was 6.41, mid-league. But many of our numbers seem to suggest a 9 or 10 win team to me, not an underwater finish like 7-9.

GOOD SEASONS
QB Teddy Farrell, over 5K yards and pretty efficient (not our turnover problem)
WR Victor Lester, solid WR1 numbers, 9.5 ypt on 160 targets, well done
PR Ramon Matthews, 19.2 average on punt returns, yessssssss
G Donald Foreman, anchors the OL with 40% KRBs and only 1 sack allowed
LB Jermaine Tanner, 115 tackles and holds down the inside (but RunD weak)
DE A McCormick, 13 sacks, good on ya fella
CB Riley Douglass, 84.5 PD% whoa, playing all CB, great season
CB Donnell Small, 81.8 PD% as rookie, very promising for us

BAD SEASONS
WR F Vecchio - not his fault, just got too many targets (116 for 7.4 ypt)
The defense - porous against the run, not enough turnovers, period


Okay, not panicked. Sadly, we don't own our own draft pick next year, as I would have been an earlier one than I might have guessed. We have the Cincinnati pick, which looks like it's somewhere in the 11-13 range, so we ought to land a quality addition there. The JAX 2nd will be 50th or so. That's our whole draft.

[Izulde]

What positions do you consider most important for high Run Defense bars in this edition of the engine? I'm presuming that will be your area of highest priority in the draft and/or FA, given the season's results.

[QuikSand]

To be totally fair, I pretty much ignore run defense. I feel this game principally rewards the passing game, so I prefer not to invest a lot into the running game in any direction. I always end up with filler-caliber LB who are pretty good in Run D and weak in coverage (mainly zone) and I hide them inside, especially at WILB. But overall, I just gather big bars of all types... Run D and the related things like Play Diagnosis and so forth are all secondary in my thinking.

So, I'm the wrong guy to ask. And no, fixing my run defense is not a high priority. That's not how you win in FOF.

[QuikSand]

What intrigues me the most with the running game is how damned fickle it seems to be. Last two seasons - same two RBs (admittedly no close attention to who is playing in what setup), 95% the same gameplan, and most of the same offensive line:

RB Harden 2109: 111-424, 3.82 ypc, 3 TD
RB Harden 2108: 120-699, 5.83 ypc, 7 TD

RB Lindsay 2109: 141-630, 4.47 ypc, 2TD
RB Lindsay 2108: 156-557, 3.57 ypc, 3TD

Team KRB% 2109: 32.9 (avg 35.9)
Team KRB% 2108: 30.6 (avg 33.8)

So, it's certainly possible that the roles the two backs were in changed, or even flipped... I just don't recall paying much attention to it either year. But Harden's 5.8 had me thinking maybe he is the right answer for us long term, and now I'm thinking he's a cut. Beats me whether either of these guys is actually a "good player."

[QuikSand]

Were the Special Teams... Special?

Kick Returns (rank, average)
2107: 27.2 (3rd, 23.4)
2108: 25.8 (11th, 23.7)
2109: 26.0 (9th, 23.8)

Punt Returns (rank, average)
2107: 9.1 (15th, 9.1)
2108: 15.5 (3rd, 9.5)
2109: 19.2 (2nd, 10.2)

Kick Returns Allowed (rank, average)
2107: 19.7 (2nd, 23.4)
2108: 18.9 (1st, 23.7)
2109: 21.4 (4th, 23.8)

Punt Returns allowed (rank, average)
2107: 3.4 (1st!, 9.1)
2108: 7.5 (t4th, 9.5)
2109: 9.4 (12th, 10.2)

So... what jumps out is the punt return allowed number from 2017. What did we do so much better then? BETTER PUNTER, DUMBASS. Cochrane (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=81192) was pretty good... (although not really great in hang time, which seems like it would connect most to return average) and we have gone cheap there since he left. Carolina isn't league best there (they're right there with us) so he's not the magic ingredient... but he has to be part of it. So... perhaps we need to look at the punter position.

(whisper: we are already looking at it)

[tzach]

i love this thread -- have you given up on the 2 TE offense? i'm surprised to see your TE2 with only 3 targets

[QuikSand]

i love this thread -- have you given up on the 2 TE offense? i'm surprised to see your TE2 with only 3 targets

Honestly, I love this thread too now, wtf

No, the TE2 vanishing act was just a mistake on my part. Had I properly slotted him, he would have had about 60-70 targets... I just failed to double check my assignments, and I left Weydahl in all the prime receiving TE slots in the offense. (I use the T position in one setup, and in prior years, the default setting was to slot Weydahl as the Y and Carr as the T... for some reason that didn't happen this year and I missed it)

Not sure what balance I will be shooting for next season, though... with a second WR of quality on the roster, I feel like I have the diversity of targets to get back to a fully-featured offense. Going to give some thought about moving even further into the 2019 Ravens mindset of using TEs for lots of the underneath work, and wideouts for downfield stuff. I really don't have a perfect slot receiver on this team, but my tight ends could easily become the targets for those plays, even more than they are already. Don't want to bork the hidden chutes and ladders system, though.

[QuikSand]

So, Ben's Atlanta team bests an AVAILABLE team from the AFC to retain human dominance. That's fun, sorry to Jeremessiah's Chefs (great googly moogly) who had a great regular season but got beaten at the wrong time.

We have no retirements... hooray.

One personnel note... I always go out and splash around in the free agent market once my team is eliminated. This year we may have uncovered a relative gem that way:

Punter EdFred (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=85322)

If hang time is a big deal, then perhaps this guy is my ticket to getting a notch or two better in our return game. We'll see - but grabbing a free agent and locking him in as restricted for this season seems like a no brainer. He's likely better than what I could get after the draft this season - but I will take a look at what a fat one year deal might bring us, assuming I have cap space to work with.

[QuikSand]

Another interesting and noteworthy twist here - CB Douglas has seized the group leadership away from CB Everett (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=80659), so this year we will be all happied up, finally. There's a chance that Everett will re-sign fairly affordably (after a couple seasons of limited field time), and I'll have to decide whether the combination of talent and cohesion is worth going without any chemistry on that roster slot. So, kinda glad I didn't cut him last year - it's nice to have this option, at least. He's still a CB1/CB2 quality player, imo.

[QuikSand]

I'm working on my grid of current/2112 players (it's starting to converge)... but for now, here's my thinking on the ordered needs for this team:

LT
EDGE
RBserious
WR slot
KRstud
studP
studK

Without digging into the FA class, I think the most intriguing thing for us will be the pass rush. Locked in, with my mental letter grades, I have McCormick (B), Humphrey (C+), Whiting (C), and DT Calhoun (A-). To make my defense work properly, I feel liek I need to add another guy of serious caliber. Tuholski is a 10th year free agent... if he re-signed, we'd likely start him and get the foll chem/coh combo to augment his presumably waning talent. Probably our best move, up until he retires or just bottoms out.

If there's a good fit OT for us with pick 1.10, that seems like the obvious play for us. A young stud pass rusher would be the most likely thing to move me off that path. And if the stars don't align for us at the right position in the rookie class, a trade down to pick up a couple rotation-caliber picks could be in the cards, too.

[QuikSand]

The free agent class doesn't look like a great batch for our needs. Had been hoping there might be a 5th year stud OL for us... well, the studs are there, but none fit our scheme, and I'm not paying a premium for anyone other than an ideal fit.

Bad luck for us, the guys out there who would be great fits happen to be at positions where I'm not really looking to spend a ton of new money - TE, DB. So, I'll weigh my options (can't see demands yet, we're only at the stupid stage one) but it could be another offseason of mostly biding our time and retaining guys we already have in the fold.

[QuikSand]

Okay head count, as we start the big phase, FA 1:2

47 player signed
05 RFAs definitely being re-signed (S Thomas, LB Shockey, C Borrelli, FB Shepherd, P Frederick)
02 draft picks
---
54 How bout that we're already home!

Roster is already legal, so we don't have any must-do moves. Pretty easy setup.

$141m in cap space is about 22% of the total, enough to work with
$20m to extend C Castillo (likely)
$30m to extend LB Randolph (definitely)
$10m to extend S McGee (likely)
...that gets us to more like $80m to spend, and we know we have more extensions down the road to keep the group together. That's more like our working figure for now... and Teddy Tightends will be looking for $40m/yr next season (he's at $6m today).

CB Gabe Everett will either come off the books next year (or this year) or possibly extend at around $10m/yr after this season. Again, a debate about cohesion + talent versus pure chemistry, where he's now neutral. Also a tough call on CB Metzenbaum, he's fading and unlikely to be important to us by 2112... so we... cut him? Maybe.

QB Jimmy Mc, off a bench season, would extend at $10m a year, a shade below his price today. Ummm... maybe? If Teddy retires, JimmyMc would be a good fit with huge cohesion and experience. Worth carrying a mid-sized salary forever? Dunno.

[QuikSand]

Hmm, Teddy won't even cap out this year, so the bump to big money could happen as soon as this offseason if he holds out, which we definitely cannot rule out.

[QuikSand]

First easy take-away...it would be really tough for us to carry DE Tuholski. He's a quality starter right now, but he's a 10th year guy. 96 personality makes him a wonderful fit for us short term, but he wants a 3yr deal at $30 per. I don't see how we can swing it. If I knew he'd still be good enough to play for 2112-13-14 then maybe... but without that sense, we likely just cannot afford him.

Basically, I know that I will have a number of marginal active/starting players who will want real money beyond their ordinary worth. And given this push for cohesion, I will want to pay them. But to make it work by the target year(s) I likely will have to economize on what I spend on any player who is not on the active roster and on the field a lot. Inactive players will need to be minsal or really close to it. I won't have the luxury of paying guys to be pleasant, I fear.

Anyway, Tuholski wants a stage 2 deal, I expect I will sit it out and watch him get paid by AVAILABLE.

[QuikSand]

This offseason sucks already. No great fits for the draft, at all. Free agency much the same. Really disappointing.

[QuikSand]

Went in to re-do my stage file, trying to afford DE Tuholski. I don't see how to do it, but that guy remains super-productive.

Ramon, cast your eyes upon him (gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=78790)

A 12.5 PR% is unreal. 11 sacks on 271 pass plays... same. He's a damned 96 personality, 10 year cohesion guy who is still flat out balling.

The numbers don't work, especially if he retires after this year or next... but if he's even a 70-rated PR Tech guy in 2112, he'd be a monster asset for us.

Trying to find the witchcraft to keep him around.

[QuikSand]

Draft tool posted up, and AI teams make the first 7 picks. Bad news for us - the two great fit players for us are both off the board already. Big time (but low developed) C and a max-bars OLB... neither exactly need areas, but both look like potential stud players.

So...I sit at 10, and am looking at either a quality non-affinity player, or else a significant reach. Have two candidates for the latter, both should be fine, but look more like the caliber I expect from a pick in the 20s than top ten. Damn, damn, damn... just bad luck with the horoscopes here.

[QuikSand]

Well, the results of the first and biggest FA stage are in, and the results are mixed. At one point, this outcome was precisely what I desired. Then I flipped. Now, I'm a bit disappointed.

Ramon Tuholski is gone. Not to AVAILABLE, but to Atlanta, the champs. Dammit. Ben definitely thinks human GMs undervalue older players, and he likely had cap space to make this move - he lands Tuholski for 3yrs, $108.0M (Bonus: $75.0M. Salary: $11.0M, $11.0M, $11.0M.) I put in a bonus-heavy bid at $22m per year... likely wouldn't even have beaten out the AVAILABLE bids. So... not really even close. So it goes. Initially my instinct was to just let him walk, then I talked myself into him as important for 2010-11-12 if not 2013-14-15. Mooted now. He gone.

What's the upside here? Shiny new DB Eugene Slechta (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=83222). He lined up at safety thus far, but at 190 lbs and maxed-out bump skills, I see him as a CB for us. His signing probably means we can let both CB Metzenbaum and Everett walk - our CB1/2 pair of the future is likely Shlechta/Small in whatever order, with the nickel and dime slots filled out by our other happy campers. That should be very solid, talent-wise, and every single guy will be on board for chemistry.

Riley Douglas now freely moves over to start at SS, where his 88 RunD and max Zone D should make him a serious force, as well as the chem lead. Austin and (probably) McGee remain in our long term plans as rotation-caliber safeties. I like it.

Now... if I do end up using my 2nd round pick in this draft, it's possible I still go DB for lack of stronger options. But I'm hoping that isn't our situation.

[QuikSand]

For what it's worth... the draft is sitting at 1.9, I pick at 1.10. The best player available, is not a match for chemistry, but looks like a total monster at a need position for us. It will be hard to reach for a god fit decent player over a potential superstar type. I'll keep noodling on it, but I expect to break my chem vow here unless the guy gets snapped up.

[QuikSand]

Mister wonderful, a nearly maxed-out LB, is there for me at pick 10. We really could use a do-it-all LB, I've been planning to just slot Jay James as our WLB long term, but a stud there would be sweet. Actually, I'd move Randolph to Will and play the rookie at Sam, most likely.

[QuikSand]

I couldn't resist (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6018&p=55278&viewfull=1#post55278)

[Chas in Cinti]

wow...

[QuikSand]

Yeah, if the unasked question was "how good does a guy need to look to get picked without an affinity?" then he's the answer to that question, apparently.

I had an offer of a pick in the late-ish 1st plus that team's 1st next year for him (for the pick, but that owner also wanted this guy)... I turned it down. My Plan B guy was a decent slot-style WR who went at pick 13 - I was worried I was really reaching to take him at 10, but perhaps not.

So... I'll just adjust my thinking around this cat. I do wonder why the AI teams all skipped him... he was #3 overall on the in-game big board, he's pretty highly developed... not sure if there's a rad flag in his combines, I didn't see one. Anyway, he's in.

[QuikSand]

Our one FA signing this stage could be consequential. G Rex Drake (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=80317) isn't an apparent superstar - a good run blocking lineman is okay, but not a build-around thing. However, he could take the leadership role from our current OL leader, T Joey Dotson (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=83627), who is currently pissed off about playing time. So...I had been planning to play Dotson this year to get him happy again.

If we switch to Drake, some dominoes fall. He's a 4-5, Dotson is a 2-3. My core guys (C Castillo, G Foreman, G Darby) are all in the 6-7 group and click with either leader. However, T Booker and G Turnbull are 4-5 guys...and would unclick with Drake in the lead seat. Worth it? Booker is a mediocre guy, a T3 caliber player on a good team... but we're perilously thin at T already. So, that's the big weakness here. With what we have on hand right now, my thinking on the OL would be:

2110
LT Dotson - LG Foreman - C Castillo - RG Drake/Darby - RT Peterson
Depth: Aydelotte? 96, Keith? 89, Borrelli 12

2112+
LT Foreman/Dotson - LG Foreman/Drake - C Castillo/Borrelli - RG Drake/Darby - RT Peterson?
Depth: ???

So... right now the plan at LT might indeed be to start our young up-and-coming LG Foreman. He's rated a 5 in the position (only an 8 at LG), and a formal position switch is at only 78%, for what that's worth. Using Dotson and Booker forever and just letting the rack up cohesion bonus isn't absurd, so that's in play too.

The deal with Drake is fully team-friendly, so we deliberately have options there.

[QuikSand]

Side note on Mr. Wonderful... one comment in the draft thread was that he is old. I will confess that I have never, ever even weighted player age in the slightest measure when drafting. Maybe I am indeed missing something. I can't speak with authority there... if that means he might fade in year 9 instead of year 11 or something like that, I'm simply not going to worry about that when selecting him. If it's some backdoor insight into the way the player was coded or masked, then maybe this will be instructive for me. The game has facets like that, I don't have any good explanation for why I have never watched rookie age before.

[QuikSand]

I do wonder why the AI teams all skipped him... he was #3 overall on the in-game big board, he's pretty highly developed... not sure if there's a red flag in his combines, I didn't see one. Anyway, he's in.

Okay, looked back. He's a combine skipper. No red flags, and insufficient grounds for the AI to pick him, Ben has confirmed. So... I'm not worried any more. He only had to slip past a couple of human teams to make it to pick 10, not a mini-army of BenBots.

[QuikSand]

We have one more draft pick this year, in the late 2nd round. At this point, it would be nice to land one more chemistry-fit defensive player, someone good enough to get starts.

The rookie class simply doesn't have the perfect-fit players I might like to land here: a usable RB/WR/DB with great return skills...a slot-worthy WR good enough to get targets away from my TE group...a startable pass rusher.

I will look at the OL candidates, maybe someone in the 2-3 group escaped my gaze when I did my early look-through... but I don't have any in really in my sights at the moment.

So... RB, DE, OT, DB all possible here.

[QuikSand]

Roster headcount:
53 signed
02 draft picks coming in
05 guys with top offer pending

So, cutdowns will include:
a punter, we have two
older CB/s? as we sort out that position
OL who don't fit the chem scheme (1-2)
...QB Jimmy Mc?
and likely a ratings bomb or two

[Pyser]

Side note on Mr. Wonderful... one comment in the draft thread was that he is old. I will confess that I have never, ever even weighted player age in the slightest measure when drafting. Maybe I am indeed missing something. I can't speak with authority there... if that means he might fade in year 9 instead of year 11 or something like that, I'm simply not going to worry about that when selecting him. If it's some backdoor insight into the way the player was coded or masked, then maybe this will be instructive for me. The game has facets like that, I don't have any good explanation for why I have never watched rookie age before.

Ha. It's like knocking the stud QB's who cant kick-hold (or at least in previous versions). There's nothing to knock on that dude.

I do wish the game had way less 24-25 year old rookies though.

[QuikSand]

Second round, got decent value and actually targeted a need spot - hopefully this guy develops into a rotation-worthy pass DE, and if that special teams bar remains maxed out he'll be a lovely fit.

DE Ethan Anthony (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6018&p=55348&viewfull=1#post55348)

[QuikSand]

I was pretty sure DE Anthony would go off the board before my pick - had been fully expecting to just grab a meh OL there, like a tackle of the same caliber as the guys I already have. So, this was a lucky turn, I think. And, it likely gives Joey Dotson a lane to not only start this year, but potentially to lock in as a long term starter. If Willie Booker is going to get bounced for lack of an affinity, that leaves Dotson as our most talented true tackle. Given his cohesion/chemistry edge, he might just be "the guy" for us after all.

[QuikSand]

In free agency, a couple of good signings.

FB Jackson Lusignan re-upped, on an affordable deal that ends with him clicking back down to the minsal range. That's good - he's in our long term plans, I probably shouldn't have exposed him to free agency that way, he's a high chemistry special teams standout and we're willing to overlook that he can't block a lick.

LB Riddick Hanson (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=83818) was cut after 3 seasons with an AI team, and he's signed up with us. Nothing super special, but good enough to take the field, he already has his starts to click in chemistry, and he'd be good enough to play special teams on most teams (79). Personality only 38, so we'll see if he's a guy we keep around after these next two years - but for now, a solid fit.

[QuikSand]

Incidentally...I am, with this nutty 2112 concept, having more fun with this damned team than anything I have done in MP FOF, possibly ever. I suspect it's going to lead to frustration (cap problems, due to feeling I need to retain all these marginal players who start asking for "starter money") but the assembling has been pretty engaging. The joy of finding a young affinity LB who already got his starts for another team is profound in this situation, where on most of my teams that would be pretty routine.

[QuikSand]

Bubble alert: TE Kaleb Austin (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=81701)

Who's getting cut? Maybe a guy like this.

If he stays, his main advantage is cohesion, right? He's been with us for 6 years, by 2112 it will be 8 years, so he's a plus there.

But cohesion only matters if you're on the field. So, when is this guy going to be on the field in 2112? I have A- and B+ options ahead of this guy who's basically a C+... and each of them will have almost as much cohesion benefit. I don't expect to let either one of them walk into free agency, and this is a zero-injury league.

So, why keep Austin? At the moment, we have a no-talent affinity gimp as TE4 inactive. I could easily just promote him to the active roster, but keep him off the field except for that wacky jumbo package. Weydahl and Carr can definitely handle all our duties, even in our fairly TE-reliant attack.

So, then we look at his personality. He's an affinity but only a milquetoast 32 there. So the one thing he is really contributing - we'd be better off with a minsal youngster who happens to have a 90+ personality. I can manufacture starts for a TE in half a season, no problem.

He's on the bubble.

[QuikSand]

Some more signings... all chemistry-based.

C Kelvin Borrelli
FA Stage 7
signed to a new contract: 2yrs, $5,240,000.

...bit run block potential, has his starts, but low personality

FB D.J. Shepherd
FA Stage 7
signed to a new contract: 2yrs, $5,280,000.

...was my Plan B for FB, now he's Plan B for TE3

FB Erric Stai
FA Stage 8
signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $9,200,000.

...no risk deal with an old friend and good chem fit

FL Ramon Matthews
FA Stage 8
re-signed as an unrestricted free agent

...one year deal with last year's PR w/ 19.2 yard avg (!)

SE Norman Hoover
FA Stage 8
signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,240,000.

He's a young 2-3 guy with 77/97 chem - future RB/WR leader?

C Chandler Freeman
FA Stage 9
signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $8,800,000.

Another no-risk option for OL leadership (67/99), RunB only


The RB leadership role is interesting right now. I have a converted long snapper there (52/93) - and my other players I expect to stay want no part of the leadership role (Harden 4th/17, Lindsay 3rd/33, and FB Lusignan 6th/15) - meaning I might be able to slot in this 2nd year cat Hoover there, click him with starts, and have him take over the group. Then, over time, he could become a legit group leader w 97 personality - I like that. My current WR/TE leader is a no-talent 62/80 guy, I'd like to bump up the connections there over time. So, the cheapest and seemingly least important guy here might be the one who matters most, given this silly vision quest I'm undertaking.

[QuikSand]

Renegotiations?

A couple tricky questions here. The big pivot for cap space this year is QB TeddyTightEnds, who really has the leverage to hold us up and become a $30m guy right now. If he doesn't, and I get to put that off one more year... then a couple questions.

CB Everett (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=80659). I have been talking about cutting/trading him. No trade offers. Cut? Maybe. But if we want to keep him, I could extend him this year and turn this year's 18+30 into 4/50 or so... he'd only cost us $12/yr or so after this season. That makes for a very affordable high quality high cohesion starter. Talent-wise that would make us pretty formidable at DB overall, I think, which I like. Have to decide whether he's a luxury, and perhaps not worth the cap space and the non-affinity compromise.

QB Jimmy Mc. I couldn't pull the trigger last year and cut him. Now, is he a guy we want to keep? He's semi-forgotten he used to start, so instead of asking for $30m+ he only wants $12m/yr. Unlikely I re-up - he could even be cheaper next year.

C Castillo. (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=77751)Ok, this is tough. He's excellent. He's also in his 11th season, and he's 33 years old. If I re-up with him, it will take a lot this year - and I'm buying in for, maybe, two more seasons, right? So, best case he sticks around to 2112 and then we have to turn over the reins to someone else, maybe Guthrie or Borrelli. Ugh.

S Levi McGee (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=83989). Tricky because he's asking for bigger money than I might have guessed - he wants $21m/yr, and I see him as more of a $10-12m guy. The re-up is the safe play, he's a guy I would like to keep here and on the field... but he's not good enough to play special teams for us. The 88 personality, though, and cohesion...

Honestly, if Teddy doesn't hold out this year... I'll probably just extend him this year anyway, while I have the cap space to give. And Castillo... just unsure what to do there, he's a major talent, hard to let go.

[QuikSand]

Chemistry note... as of right now, if I look at my roster and sort on Chemistry, the "Exceptional Affinity" list carries all the way to and beyond the bottom of the visible page. Whoa.

[QuikSand]

HOLDING OUT

Baltimore Ravens
QB Teddy Farrell
43
43

Baltimore Ravens
S Levi McGee
49
49

yyyyyyyyup

[QuikSand]

Rookie sneak peeks are mixed - Mr. Wonderful looks every bit the real deal, while our DE Ethan Anthony was probably too good to be true... those "possibly maxed" bars in PRTech and Special Teams look like they'll max out at 75, not 100, making him close to useless, and a 40 personality isn't going to help. Meh.

[QuikSand]

Okay, I put in an offer to lock up Teddy for $36m/yr. Hopeful, but not certain that he'll take it.

S McGee... not sure what to do. He's basically the case study for why doing what I'm trying to do is so hard. To re-up with us, he demands $107m/5y - absurd. And I know what will happen... if I cut him, he'll go sign for 1yr minsal for an AI-roster-filler, maybe be a part time starter, and then he'll be back on the free agent market looking for $6m. Fucker.

[Olsson]

I really enjoy your write-up Quick!

Been following for a while and just wanted to let you know I’m following closely!

Keep them coming ��

[QuikSand]

:thumbsup:

glad to hear, I have been enjoying getting a bit deeper into the thinking here of late, too...

[QuikSand]

Late free agency is basically unexciting. In some offseasons, I take my usual filtered looks through the wastebins, and sometimes there are some legit treasures. In a league with a number of AI teams, you never know when one of them will suddenly click into its "cap trouble" routine and start cutting guys like their 2nd round 44/53 guy in his 3rd season. It actually happens here. Or, more frequently, a guy who was signed and got playing time for a year or two just doesn't get re-upped and becomes a 2nd or 3rd year free agent with legit potential. Or, in any league, some guys who didn't really impress during the draft suddenly look attractive once we get a fuller look at them in late free agency (pet peeve alert).

So...I have put in a wave of modest offers, but I don't think there's a single player out there whom I am twiddling thumbs awaiting the Monday morning note of whether he signed with us. The thumb-twiddling is basically confined to Teddy's contract renewal, which I do hope goes through (for 4 years), with my usual bonus-heavy, longer-term, lower-value approach that makes a ton of sense in a no-injury league without a cap adjustment.

[QuikSand]

The position that might be most intriguing right now for us, as we think about both 2110 and 2112+, is running back. Here are our current contributors, and let's say for my purposes, I have 5 things I want from the RB position... how do these guys stack up?

Roger Harden (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=83315)
1st-and-10 rushing: He's got the right skills, mostly, and one good season
Special teams skills: Very good, 88
Chemistry contribution: Oof, Personality 4 XXXX
Receiving/pass blocking: Not really his thing
Cohesion contribution: Into 4th season with us

Dashawn Lindsay (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=84144)
1st-and-10 rushing: Decent ratings, right? (HR 60/78, End 65/84, Brk 20)
Special teams skills: meh, 67/82 not active for us
Chemistry contribution: solid, 62 pers
Receiving/pass blocking: solid, 50-ish in key receiving stats
Cohesion contribution: 3rd year now

So, it's not absurd to think these guys could remain our 1/2 punch in 2112. But, after this year, Harden is going to want to get paid. So he won't be a cheap rookie-contract guy anymore, he'll be a $12m (?) guy whose commitment puts pressure onto other important positions. And presumably a year later we'd be paying these two, what, $20m per year between them?

I would be really happy if I could land a minsal, low-talent guy who could just check a couple of those boxes. I'm always looking at the post-draft rookies for that, sometimes with some luck. We'll see if we have a change in store. My leaning is - Harden will go, mainly because of his low personality. If he had posted two good YPC seasons in a row, maybe I'd be thinking otherwise... this year I will be careful about their roles, but I have no real idea what to expect from them this year. Will they combine for 4.2 or 5.4 ypc? Either seems very possible.

[QuikSand]

Well, the league simmer has declared a two week respite, so I'll have plenty of time to gripe and groan about our offseason and the year ahead. Hope my momentum with this team doesn't lose too much steam, but so it goes.

[QuikSand]

Okay, the late free agency roster moves - picked up a few guys, missed on a few, but we locked up Teddy.

= = = = =

C Marshall Keith
Late FA Stage 1
re-signed as an unrestricted free agent

He's merely a chemistry gimp, but w 89 personality and minsal, could stick

LCB Ray Fargas (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=83937)
Late FA Stage 1
signed as a free agent: 3yrs, $24,000,000.

The more you look, the less you like... semi-promising, but a likely cut

QB Derrick Camara
Late FA Stage 1
signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $4,510,000.

84 personality in the 4-5 group, 79 sense rush but looks like a cut

RB Gabriel Wolfe
Late FA Stage 1
turned down a contract offer: 2yrs, $4,510,000.

Hmm, I offered a bit extra and lost. Maybe a RB-to-WR convert...

RB Taylor McCormack
Late FA Stage 1
signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $4,510,000.

Meh, punt return and mostly nonzero bars, but not a serious hit

SE Clyde Linquist
Late FA Stage 1
signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $4,510,000.

combine skipper, not sure what I liked here

RT Timothy Wilkerson
Late FA Stage 2
re-signed as an unrestricted free agent

we'll keto him into, hopefully, a pos switch - possible TE/FB leader

RB Mickey Willis
Late FA Stage 2
turned down a contract offer: 2yrs, $4,900,000.

should've bid more, possible RB2 guy, low End but solid Brk/HRec

TE Darnell Barrett
Late FA Stage 3
signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $7,140,000.

He's back, angling for the TE3 affinity gimp job...Pers 32 but ST 80/92

RB Rick Gilmore
Late FA Stage 3
signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $4,900,000.

Okay, legit potential here... ST 76/93, End 20/27, HR 49/56, Brk 31

RG Alexander Mayes
Late FA Stage 3
signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $4,900,000.

Yet another chem fit OL, yawn

LT Winfred Roberts
Late FA Stage 3
signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $4,510,000.

85 BlStr portends some bump, but likely not enough to stick

FS Jeremy Chandler
Late FA Stage 3
turned down a contract offer: 2yrs, $4,900,000.

Seattle gets all three of the guys I wanted but missed... grrrr

[QuikSand]

...we still doing this? Beats me.

Sims re-start tomorrow, apparently.

[QuikSand]

So, tomorrow is the training camp stage. We're already at 68 players, it's not like I really need to load up. Looking over everything, I'm recalling all the stuff that was forward in mind 10-15 days ago... yeah, I see it.

My "Position Distribution" report is a joke, of course. We have 20 skill position players (need 10)... 14 OL (7)... 15 guys for the D7 (11)...and 11 secondary (70). So, yeah, cuts are coming. We knew that already...the 20 skills is just silly, though.

One thing that strikes me is my chemistry problem looming at WR/TE. Right now, I have a neutered long snapper as my chem gimp, he's only a 62/80, meaning he will lose control of the leadership in the group soon. Specifically, it will go to TE2 Teddy Carr (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=82527) (70/86) in a couple years, give or take. And the bench out there in the 2-3 group for becoming good leaders is pretty thin...it's gonna take this stiff (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=85148) a long time to become a group leader if Carr stays around.

So... there's the clause. If Carr stays around. Zero injury league. Last year I inadvertently just slotted my TE1 into the "tight end who gets the targets in that formation" roles, and it ended up being Weydahl 158, Carr 3 for the season (targets). Well, shit, if that's the case... why bother with a TE2 who can do anything but block, play special teams, and maybe make convincing fart sounds in his underarm? Carr is making $8m the next two years to be out TE2... maybe we just shove him out of the way for chemistry reasons, and plug in somebody else who can just make oblique contributions (cf the list above) for minimum salary, and hopefully for huge chemistry value?

Among the rest of my "long term assets" in the group, we have a number of low leadership ratings:
TE1 Weydahl 0
TE3 Barrett 5
WR1 Lester 32
WR2 Franz 13
WR3 Bernal 15

...so, in theory, we could push a guy like WR Norman into the leadership role within two or three seasons, if we get him starts and his 77 towers over the rest of the group. Limits my ability to go out and find veterans, but it's not off the table at all here.

[QuikSand]

Training camp is uneventful, I guess. The "reveal" is not revealing to those who understand the sneak peek angle. So, my rookie class is what I expected.

So, with 71 players (I guess I mis-calculated something, likely will suffer a penalty for exceeding 70) here are some decisions I see lying ahead for us:

RB3? In this league, I have been just riding two RBs, the minimum. Now, I sorta like the looks of rookie RB Rick Gilmore (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=85805), as he bring to the table some valued intangibles - a 95 personality, and a 78/92 special teams skill. That says, to me, he could be a long term asset, possibly as our RB2 and on the active roster. So, I guess we keep him and get him "starts" this year. Does that mean we carry him as a RB3, or do we pare down one of the guys ahead of him in the queue? Maybe even Harden?

RB4? And then there's the rookie wildcard guy Taylor McCormack (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=85810), who will almost certainly have a ratings bump in preseason. But if it's just 5 points, he's worthless... if it's 20 points suddenly he's in the picture, too. And if he bumps enough in punt returning to look like a viable piece to use there, even more intriguing.

Quick note - I think Harden's Goose is cooked. Comes off a bad season, low personality, special teams really not special enough for this team. Tough to overcome all those demerits, despite having a bar profile I rather like.

S McGee - he's holding out, as I more or less suspected. We'll have to decide whether he makes sense as a $12-15m/yr guy. 88 personality and 4 years on the roster - this is the sort of guy I should be keeping as part of the 2112 thing. But can I really justify it? He's really not great, and even this year he's already projecting to be our third, "utility" safety. So, on the field for maybe 250 plays? I've got CB Wordehoff (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=81476) on hand already, and he's totally up to that job, and is cheaper, special teamier, and chemically pretty good.

QB Jimmy Mc. You've heard this before. I really cannot justify paying $12m a year for a backup QB, when I have a high personality mentor and it's a zero-injury league. The only argument for him is that he could step in with cohesion if Teddy were to retire abruptly.

Young OL. Okay, we're shifting to a 4/5 leader guy - that means C Guthrie is an easy cut. C Borrelli (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=85274) still looks like a promising run blocker, possible future C starter... but on the bench with a mere 12 personality, ugh. The right play seems to be to hold onto C Castillo as long as possible, and assume we can fill the role when we need to, maybe with a guy on the roster already at guard.

[QuikSand]

Update: file submitted, RB Harden has been released in this batch

[QuikSand]

S McGee ends his holdout. But now he's a haughty "past injustices" guy. Not sure if that would abate if he just plays out this year under his $4m rookie deal. I suspect he's history.

Okay, preseason is done. This is the big file, the regular season. The final cut to 53, and the stage to decide who gets to play this year. I'm basically in "go for it" mode now, I might find some time for marginal guys here or there, but in the main I'm looking to march ahead with what I've got from here on.

Mr. Wonderful remains wonderful, even though my scout dips him to a mere 67/73. Build-around talent, we'll see if he's a trade bait guy in year 4 or a long termer.

DE Anthony bumps in camp, should be a long term asset, will get a part-time starting gig this season in hopes of notching 8 starts to click in.

RB Gilmore -2 in preseason, dang. Bubble guy for longer term, but by cutting Harden I pretty much have to use him this year, since my other rookie McCormack was a mere +2, now 28/33. McCormack is up to 43/44 in PR by my scout... geez, could that get him a roster slot and fake starts? Ugh.

I'm tired. File sent. We'll see. Ten wins?

[QuikSand]

I'm tired. File sent. We'll see. Ten wins?

Well, nope. How about 7 wins.

GML: Baltimore Ravens 2110 (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampage.php?teamid=2&year=2110)

Quick notes from the Team Summary:
Teddy was okay... 6.8ypa, 30/18, 82.8 - okay but not a serious advantage
(Context - 287 yards/gm passing ranks 2nd, 6.8 ypa ranks 6th)
Targets split three ways, basically- not enough for Lester, dumbass
WR Vecchio again performs... sinister look at that high endurance bar
RB Lindsey in full time role is fine - 4.5 ypc not great but okay
We're -2 on turnovers... mainly since we don't intercept anyone
We allowed only 5.8 ypa passing... t3rd best there
Not a great pass rush, again not enough defensive playmaking
S Riley Douglass is prob the team MVP, coverage and tackling machine

This honestly doesn't look like a losing team, by the numbers. Pass well, stop the pass, to me that's a really good and important start. Blame the patch?

Ugh. Major setback. Felt this was the season for us to feel like it was coming together. Instead of feeling like the D is "done" I feel like we're "stuck."

[QuikSand]

Wow, dumb blindspot move. Started my defensive lineups with Otto, and he just benched LB Jermaine Tanner. Got 9 tackles in spot duty, and is now HOT about it. Won't be able to extend him next season, he'll be a free agent. Dumb.

[QuikSand]

Interesting twist... our sack leader with 8 wasn't even visible on the in-game team summary, since he only had 12 tackles. Fun "ears pinned back" ratio for him.

http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=85358

[johnnyshaka]

Interesting twist... our sack leader with 8 wasn't even visible on the in-game team summary, since he only had 12 tackles. Fun "ears pinned back" ratio for him.

http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=85358

I love looking at the "ears pinned back" page from time to time...

http://gml.fof-belco.com/pinned_ears.php

I had forgotten about this thread...glad you haven't. :popcorn:

We've got the Brown's defense clicking and we need to get the rookie QB another WR and then we'll hopefully be back in business.

[QuikSand]

Set up for heartbreak.

We pick at 1.9. The draft has moved to 1.7, there are two picks ahead of mine. My top two players in this draft, incorporating team need and chemistry focus, still remain on the board.

What are the chances that they both get taken, somehow, at picks 7 and 8?

[QuikSand]

Well, heartbreak avoided. A nearly maxed-out TE from my affinity group was actually available at pick 7, and that had me daydreaming about him in our TE-friendly offense.

But... he gone. At 7 to the last human team ahead of us.

We end up with a consolation prize: T Tyrus Shepherd (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6038&p=55594&viewfull=1#post55594)

Now, once I recover from the TE-induced swoon, I can put this into perspective. I am not sure how position value in FOF parallels with the NFL, but if you had my roster in the NFL, you would 100% be saying "all this team really needs is a serious left tackle!"

Honestly, the correct play for me when seeing this fairly crappy draft overall, would have been to try to deal away assets to move up to pick 3 or 4 in order to get this guy. Instead, we luck out and land him by providence. Perhaps by divine intervention? Not my style, honestly, hope this doesn't offend

So, a quiet moment please...Mr Teddy Tightends has something to say...

My left tackle is Shepherd. I shall not want.

He keepeth me from having to lie down in green pastures: he leadeth me beside the other jerseys.

He restoreth my soul: he leadeth me in the paths of first down markers for his game's sake.

Yea, though I walk through the pressure of the edge rushers of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy bod and thy technique they comfort me.

Thou preparest a pocket for me in the presence of mine enemies: thou anointest my head with proper reads; my backs runneth over.

Surely goodness and mercy shall follow me all the plays of my career: and we will dwell in the endzone for ever.

[johnnyshaka]

I had dreams of the TE falling to me at 1.10...silly, silly dreams.

[Chas in Cinti]

Nice... now a couple of balls bounce the other way this season and I'm hoping to see a nice rebound to 10-11 wins...

[QuikSand]

Okay, C Castillo re-signs. Major sigh of relief there. I wasn't sure whether he'd get other offers... submitted a file with $35m/yr, then doubled back and did it again for $41m to be more certain. He accepts - zero competition. Dammit.

CB Diego Wordehoff is back, too, no shock. He's just worth more to us (cohesion, chemistry, and maybe he can even play a little) than anyone else.

We miss out on a nice-looking RT. Rats. $25m/yr gets him, I offered him $14...had no clue what the market would be for a 63/63 8th year guy slotted at RT.

We've got some cap space, but I really don't have a great plan to spend it - likely will just re-up with guys already aboard where it makes sense. We need to be getting really good FAST. It's now a Rush 'til 2112.

[Squirrel]

Chemistry note... as of right now, if I look at my roster and sort on Chemistry, the "Exceptional Affinity" list carries all the way to and beyond the bottom of the visible page. Whoa.

Ooh yeah

I've felt this

[QuikSand]

Late-ish night. Crazy work day. Punctuated by drinks. And more.

Draft seems over. Okay, that was fun.

We apparently signed some guys. WR Bernal back on minsal deal, nice. He's super-low RR so maybe trash, but he plays nicely with the others, so that's cool. Another affinity WR stiff and a pretty affordable rotation-caliber DE. Decent haul.

Blah

[QuikSand]

Missed a stage, just busy. Not bad timing, at least.

Late stages of free agency, a little news:
-tried to land a decent veteran RT, failed, no crisis
-re-signed QB Jimmy Mc because I can't quit you (one year, maybe cheap next season?)
-another year with PR Matthews at WR, because 18 yards per PR is good
-re-up with minsal affinity guys, per usual

Boring.

[QuikSand]

Rookie T Tyrus Shepherd does look very good, so that's encouraging. He's a little better as a run blocker than pass protector, but we'll just plug him in for a decade, I hope.

[QuikSand]

So, are we ready to go someplace soon? 2112 is knocking at the door.

Late free agency pickups... not much to report.

-Re-up with CB Metzenbaum, WR Vecchio,
-One of those big-blocking-strength no-other-bars OL
-Lots of pretty hopeless-looking URFAs

...and I'll likely pay a draft pick penalty for going over 70 players (76). So it goes. All for nothing, too, since I don't see much of anything among the chattel here that looks keep-able on this team.

[QuikSand]

Hmmm. Gonna have to make a call. WR Vecchio took over my chemistry leader role, and that's not ideal. He has been productive, but I don't want to have to wait two or three more seasons to max out chemistry there. He might get cut. Dang.

[QuikSand]

So, I decide to release TE Teddy Carr. No shock. With no injuries, we're already paying TE Weydahl, paying a second quality guy just detracts from Weydahl's targets. Plus, he was messing up our chemistry short term.

So, meet our new chem leader: WR Norman Hoover (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=85148), your prototype affinity gimp. He'll hopefully ride the bench for 10 years and anchor chemistry the whole time, and never ask for more than minsal.

I think this means an undrafted rookie TE will make the roster - and he might turn out to be more than a chem guy after all. Ronald Austin (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=86718) will likely make a solid bump in preseason (my scout rates him +8 in potential, a very good sign) and perhaps can slide into a useful TE2/3 role. TE Barnett is the special teamer of the group, who really shouldn't be on the field much. Cameron Robinson is the fall-back if somebody falls apart. While I prefer having a more well-rounded talent as my TE2 (like this fella (http://ccfl.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=20963) in another league) we'll play the hand we've been dealt here. Sadly, I really should have seen this coming, especially when the set of potential 2/3 group leaders was so weak... I should have known Carr was a goner and planned accordingly, to have a cohesion guy in there by now. This "peak at the right time" shit is really hard.

[QuikSand]

File is in. Life is busy. Forecast is unclear.

I'd really like this season to come together, and

(meant to submit this yesterday... heh, that's how busy)

[QuikSand]

So... did we make the jump back into contention? That's basically my "ask" for this season...

Yup. (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampage.php?teamid=2)

12-4. Well okay then. What went right?

Well, Teddy was a solid 8.3 QB, I guess, with an 80 passer rating and 29/15 ratio
Running game was strong - Lindsay for 5ypc as the main threat
Our conservative air game was efficient (but only for mid-pack 6 ypa)
Defense was top 10 in both ypa and ypc, I like that a lot
Our top 3 LBs each has double digit passes defensed (whoa)
Pass rush kinda weak, but opponents still couldn't pass that well (5.7 ypa)

Happy overall. Probably overachieved in the win column, but it's hard to acclimatize to the new atmosphere of the much-changed FOF game.

[QuikSand]

Been a while since I look at this closely, but:

Punt returns: 20.7 (1st)
Kick returns: 24.9 (11th)
PR Allowed: 7.9 (t9th)
KR allowed: 19.0 (1st)

I'm pretty happy with that. We still don't have a legitimate kick returner on the roster, so I'm sending out a 40-rated guy to do that (for league-wide lack of a single chem-fit guy who can do it well). I think my decent but not great punter is the main reason we're not near the very top there.

Regardless... I'm pleased with our special teams as the team is coming together overall.

[QuikSand]

Nice run to win the conference title, but lose in the championship game (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6053&p=55875&viewfull=1#post55875)

We're in the elite tier, that was the plan/hope. Need to keep it going.

[Chas in Cinti]

Ack... so close

[johnnyshaka]

Thank you, sir, may I have another?

Ouch.

[Pyser]

great maneuvering quik - fun to see how you built this

[QuikSand]

Thanks, fellas. It's my busiest time of the year for work, so that timing isn't ideal... but I do want to keep this thread and team going. The new year has dawned... it is upon us.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/c9/Rush_2112.jpg/220px-Rush_2112.jpg

[QuikSand]

General offseason thoughts:

I have a trade offer to take my 2-7 picks this year...I'm a motivated seller. -There are some guys who will go top-12 or so in this draft for whom I'd offer a lot...will float an idea or two, but more likely I'll just use 1.31 on a BPA and deal the rest.

-Goal this season is to max out. Cohesion, chemistry, talent. Kind of in that order.

-We still have a few positions of relative need, where a serious talent bump might override our other goals... RT (!) and RB the most notable. C is looming as a need, but Castillo is back at least for this year, so we're good for now.

-Pass rusher is a pinch point, where I have to decide whether DE McCormick is worth a premium contract. He's been okay (25 sacks on 6.3 PR% in 3 seasons as a starter) but he's got a bad chem combo (95/24) that could be a liability down the road. Ratings say he's good, not at all great. He wants phat lewt, too. So, I need to weigh my thoughts about the DE position, and cohesion especially, here. [url=http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=85358]DE Humphrey (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=84539) and his 2 personality is waiting next year for a similar fork-in-the-road setup.

-I think I will have more to say about the salcap and my offseason grand plan after a couple stages. Should have more focus then, I reckon.

[QuikSand]

Okay, first stage of free agency, and two HUGE signings for us.

First...we HAD to re-up with LB Jermaine Tanner (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=82165). Odd blunder put him on the bench in his penultimate contract year, meaning I couldn't extend him... but he's back with us for 4 more seasons. Starting caliber player, great chem leader... essential piece of the puzzle. Whew. (Massively overpaid, though)

And... my musing earlier about pass rusher was about the top such guy on the market, DE DeAndre Banks (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=84624). 5th year guy with 90+ PRTech - let's just say that on our team, he will be expected to blow right past the 6-7 sacks per season clip he established in Jacksonville. Nobody else even bid on him, so I guess I overpaid, but he was the one guy good enough to make me say goodbye to one or two of my veteran cohesion types, in the name of gaining in talent.

So... two fat contracts, and that basically defines my offseason for this year. We will be filling in pieces here and there as we can, but we're basically done with big moves.

[QuikSand]

So, from here on out, it's just minor pieces of the puzzle. I think my biggest issue will be where I am willing to actually pay.

34 players signed right now
13 players we are lead bid on right now
7 draft picks at the moment, trying to deal that way down
4 RFAs I intend to re-sign (P EdFred, RB Gilmore, T Roberts, WR Slade)
--
55 players, more or less

We have $110M in cap space... veteran minsal is 3.62M

So... money-wise, here's my thinking:

-have some guys who are not great players, but are great fits...NT Neill, LB Shockey, LB Brotzmann -- I figure I have to pay these guys 2x minsal or so, where I might not be willing to do so, absent this weird peak-right-now plan

-I have real offers in on a few new free agents, but really want cohesion guys out there mostly... so this year won't be much for the 8th year 52/52 guy, beyond the DE we just signed... I'll be trotting out my familiar faces wherever I can this season

-So, the obvious play, I think, is to target high-personality chemistry fits who already have starts enough to activate their effects... and sign those guys to sit on the bench this year. My guess is I will have 3-6 such guys this season, more or less taking the place of the bottom side of a standard rookie class.

-This season is supposed to be "it" but realistically, it's also the start of a window... maybe one that we can keep open as long as Teddy sticks around at QB (remember, he wasn't a rookie when he signed with us, he's now a 10th year player)

If Banks can help inject some real life into our pass rush, this team could actually be pretty serious on defense. Stay the course, pretty conservative (even through we do pass a lot) on offense, and play good D... and just let the era of good feelings carry us to the promised land.

[QuikSand]

So, here's a guy sitting out there in free agency (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=81474). Let's say that I have $15m or so that I more or less don't have a place to spend this year, and that a one-year deal for around that amount would probably get him to join up.

PRO:
-quality player, would be a good fit in a CB3/S2/S3 rotation
-good special teamer, likely would be encouraged
-high personality, so strong chemistry effect with our leader

CON:
-putting him out there means a high-cohesion guy sits down
-older player, so no long term future with him

So... under ordinary circumstances, I would likely be all in to try to get this guy on a 2yr deal, leaving my options open. But I am trying to max out both chemistry and cohesion here... and he frustrates the second of those two goals. And if he's mostly on the bench, then hell, I can get a high-personality cohesion guy cheaper than that to ride the pine, I assume.

[Chas in Cinti]

Stick to the principle... Only way to balk would be for someone higher in the depth chart IMO...

[QuikSand]

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41RmSGimLnL._SX331_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg

[QuikSand]

Fun twist with the draft. I made some effort to trade up to get an apparent superstar OT, since that was a major need. Couldn't pull it off without three 1sts.

So... I instead deal away this year's 2-3-4-5-6-7 to get a 2+4 next year. Just buying a clean sweep this season, and maybe getting some more ammo for a trade-up next season.

Anyway... with just pick 1.31 left, I sit back and... well, my oh my, my top two players on my board as the draft sits at pick 1.30 are both tackles. Not superstars, but similar-looking players - very high endurance and blocking strength, and decent other numbers. One is more highly developed but interviewed as VO, the other less developed but no interview result.

Well, I guess I get to target a need area after all. We'll draft a guy to slot right in at RT, I suspect.

[QuikSand]

So, big blunder, I suppose. RB Dashawn Lindsay (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=84144) wouldn't listen to anything shorter than two years, so I offered him a bonus heavy fat two year deal to stay. Turns out I got beat by AVAILABLE, and... in all fairness... I'm supposed to be better than that. So, we let our 5-yards-a-clip affinity/cohesion running back walk, and now we have only one returning back, an undrafted stiff (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=85805) from last season. Just a bad call there, all on me.

I honestly don't feel like Lindsay is a particularly good player, but leaving something as important as 150+ carries to the absolute random breeze seems stupid AF in a "go for it" season like this. Just dumb.

[QuikSand]

Tight End Update

First, we have extended Arturo Weydahl (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=82586), who figures to be a top target for the long haul. I wish he had some BPR skills, but we're committed, he's the guy.

Second, last year's misfit toy find is going to be a very solid TE2 for us, I think. Ronald Austin (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=86718) is a guy we can target occasionally, but who will otherwise just crackle with chemistry, and do some scut work. If he were a special teams guy he'd be my favorite player on the team, prolly.

Now, we have added 7th year veteran Kennedy Oliver (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=82564) on a "we'll see" deal. What does he bring to the table? Most of the same stuff as Weydahl. He'd be a TE1 on most of my teams. Here, he's a bubble guy... with no injuries I don't really need a plan B for TE targets. So, low cohesion, solid chemistry, and solid skills that would go unused. We are likely better off just sticking with a guy like Barrett (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=82553) for cheap, at least he'll go out and truck somebody on special teams.

And Wilkerson (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=85307) is just a chemistry chesspiece. I think I now have three such guys on the roster (2/3 group, decent leadership and high personality) so two will presumably be on the final 53 to anchor the happiness factor.

[QuikSand]

Semi big deal, update. I have traded away CB Donnell Small (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=85630), who had been our CB1. I wasn't going to be able to extend him, and likely wasn't going to be able to re-up with him in free agency, so we get a 1st and a 3rd for him, not a bad haul. We'll need to bring in another credible CB, but I think Slechta will be good enough to play CB1 for us, and we have a rotation of cohesion guys who should be okay surrounding him. Potentially a ding, but he wasn't a long term solution for us, with an upside down chemistry pairing (100 leadership, 31 personality)... we're selling high, I think.

[QuikSand]

...tried twice to deal for a RB in this draft, but failed. Alas. Will sift through the flotsam in the after-draft. I can usually find a RB3-caliber guy there. Just that he'll have to be RB1/2 instead. Dammit.

[QuikSand]

So, several signings in this FA stage (8-9)... and the roster is starting to come into focus. I did a couple capouts to clear cap space this year which I think I'll need. And we moved fairly quickly at CB, and I think I'm in okay shape here.

SS Thomas Thomas
FA Stage 8
re-signed as an unrestricted free agent

affinity gimp, had to pay over minsal to beat out opposition

LCB Sammie Metzenbaum
FA Stage 9
re-signed as an unrestricted free agent

decent veteran, special teamer, good enough to play some

QB Richie Bryant
FA Stage 9
re-signed as an unrestricted free agent

great backup

RCB Alexis Montano (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=84745)
FA Stage 9
signed as an unrestricted free agent from Philadelphia: 3yrs, $18,600,000.

the most meaningful signing here, he's likely our CB2

RB Taylor McCormack
FA Stage 9
signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $6,080,000.

just trying to find cheap options at RB for the immediate future

[QuikSand]

So, right now we are sitting on:

45 players signed
4 free agents we're pursuing, with no competition
1 draft pick on his way in
--
50 players more or less in hand

We still need another RB, a punter, and a long snapper. So, that's much of the path ahead, already spelled out.

[QuikSand]

Sneak peek of the rookie OT is... kinda meh. Hoping it gets better. Still likely our week 1 starter at RT, but might not be a lot more than a replacement-caliber guy without a preseason bump.

We're cap crunched, too. Need to find some nip and tuck stuff to get us to 53 players.

[QuikSand]

Okay, late free agency wrapped.

Biggest news is that we let RB Rick Gilmore walk. I must have miscalculated my cap space, or the order in which things happened - and my offer got rejected for lack of cap space. Ugh. So, he's gone, and we will have two guys only a click or two better than hobos toting the rock. Can't believe I blew it so badly for "the big year" here.

Looks like the cap culprit is WR/PR Ramon Matthews. Nice to have him, and he's been a good return man for us. But not wild about going without a single legitimate asset at RB.

Annoying. No real twists in the training camp stage, I'm tryna grab one more option at RB, but that's about it. Playbook remains the same as last year.

[QuikSand]

Training camp over.

Basically a formality, but we bid adieu to QB Jimmy Mc (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=81617). A crazy good undrafted rookie season ranking him QB6 league-wide. A couple more seasons as a starter where he held serve just fine, thankyouverymuch. But, he's fading and not strong on chemistry... and still thinks he's a $10m man. Cannot afford it, nostalgia aside. Hats off.

Well, we have 60 players now. Preseason will help us sort out what we do there. Will have a couple rookies who might have made the team under more ordinary circumstances, but this is "the year" and I feel duty bound to max our affinities. Like DB "Yo" Holmes (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=88095), a nice return man and potential rotation-caliber DB...this year do I really want to start him to trigger that affinity? Prolly not. He likely fades in preseason anyway, but still... guys like that could have latched on a few seasons ago to be with us now as strong affinity, role-player, build-cohesion dudes. There just wasn't such a guy at the time I needed him. Doing this is hard.

[QuikSand]

Running back is a mess. All these guys will carry into preseason, and we'll get some ratings movement to base our final cutdown on.

http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampageroster.php?teamid=2

Is Brumbaugh (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=86642) our RB2 and third down guy?

Lester (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=87477), to me, looks like he'll prolly bump in preseason and look like a marginal candidate for RB1, with that nice endurance. But no chemistry effect visible in game, due to his 10 personality score.

Is Podolyak (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=87523) good enough to make the team? See the field? If Endurance worked like I think it should, I'd say yes, let him split time... but I don't think that's how it works, and I think this guy is basically a bum.

- - -

For anyone watching this thread, I am 100% open to thought on who is worth keeping on the roster here. Granting that I am the dope who parked the team in this exact tricky spot.

[Chas in Cinti]

So, I'm nowhere near the player of FOF I was 15 years ago... but I think Podolyak is the RB1... with Brumbaugh the 3rd down back... I like Podo's ratings... though the Endurance thing is a head-scratcher...

[johnnyshaka]

I can't believe I'm going to finish behind a team trotting that backfield out there week after week. :(

[Squirrel]

Podolyak is the one that's going in on the goal line and 3rd and short for me from those.

If those really are the only options I'd be minded to break with chemistry here though (gasp)

[QuikSand]

Well, fun twist.

After weeks and weeks of developing, strategizing, and planning. Pushing guys into starting roles just to click chemistry, investing in cohesion, and manipulating my draft timing -- all to make this year work...

What do I do? Miss the file.

Just a function of a very long day, hijacked by a hundreds-of-millions issue that popped up and occupied nearly all of it, and then a string of cocktails... and by the time I walked right by my office at midnight, I didn't even go in.

I haven't even had the heart to open the league page yet. I'm sure all my chem leaders got cut, undermining the whole foundation of the team. I'm sure multiple cohesion-first guys are gone and now have no idea they ever played with us.

Gonna take some time to get over this. So disappointed. The worst possible day to flake out.

[QuikSand]

FB Karl DeWalters

Reg. Season Week 1

released


C Marshall Keith

Reg. Season Week 1

released


RDE Tyronne Baither

Reg. Season Week 1

released


RB James Thayer

Reg. Season Week 1

released


RB Taylor McCormack

Reg. Season Week 1

released


FL Corwin Smith

Reg. Season Week 1

released


SE Norman Hoover

Reg. Season Week 1

released

[QuikSand]

So, Rex is a predictable clown show with the roster. We end up targeting punt returner Mathews 126 times (for an oddly respectable 6.7 ypt), second most on the team and way more than Victor Lester, who is supposed to be our co-#1 receiver - he gets 11 targets. Mathews, incidentally, didn't even return punts he was so busy running routes with that crazy 32 RR skill.

The running game is not awful, despite the game refusing to play my first round rookie at RT (because he's listed at LT), and instead playing an undrafted rookie stiff, Wes Killens.

Defense didn't really slot guys the way I would want to, but that's not overwhelming.

Anyway... 10-6 and a wild card.

GML: Baltimore Ravens 2112 (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampage.php?teamid=2)

Not the season I had been hoping for, obviously. Will never know whether this was a blow-their-doors-off team this year, as intended.

[QuikSand]

One and out in the playoffs. Lose to the eventual champs, AVAILABLE. #*@&

[QuikSand]

So I guess we're still doing this. Feeling a little bit On the Beach doing so, but what the heck.

[QuikSand]

Snapshot:

No retirements
43 players signed
01 RFA we'll re-sign (TE Austin, ~$5m)
11 draft picks this year (ugh)
--
55 players basically "in hand"
plus a slew of current guys we'd like to keep

So, better put out my "lots of draft picks available" deal again pronto

[QuikSand]

League hiatus (tech-driven, not coronavirus-driven) abated, we're back...

[QuikSand]

Okay, the first stages of early free agency just ran. Need to get my head back around this, and I'll use this thread to help do so, per usual.

Signings: none

I missed out on T Conway (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=85303), failign to bid enough to beat out AVAILABLE. I can't remember, after this time away, whether I really wanted him or if that was just a "good enough of a fit" guy. We have two young tackles in the fold in a no-injury league, so it's not a need position. Just need to, you know, actually submit my file so my young guys, you know, PLAY. (Yeah, it's coming back to me why I have a blank in my memory about this league)

Anyway, as usual I have the leading offer out there to nine free agent players...six of them appear to be roster filler types. Probably the most interesting guy on my pursuit list is RB Dashawn Lindsay (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=84144), who got himself predictably released after one uninspiring season in Oakland (on a 3/$95m deal). My RB situation is in flux - in FOF, Lindsay has no idea how to find Baltimore on a map, despite having played here for five seasons. So, picking him up is investing in a declining asset (6th year RB ftl) with no cohesion benefit. In a more nearly perfect world, I'd be thinking about a rookie plug-and-play option at RB, given the overall state of this roster.

[Chas in Cinti]

Thank goodness this is back... it could be my only sports watching for the foreseeable future... :)

[QuikSand]

The RB Situation

On the other hand... are we really in dire need at running back?

Grant Lester (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=87477) got the call from Rex to be our main-duty guy. He was a pre-season "bump" guy, and now looks like a decent across-the-board talent guy, overall. Not bad. His 10 personality is too low to register in-game as an affinity, I don't like that, but 4.5 yards per carry is... fine. And I don't have any real designs on "winning with the ground game." I don't buy it. So, maybe the most important number for Lester is that he only fumbled 2 times in 237 touches. THAT is good enough to keep him in the picture, likely as a preferred option to Lindsay, to be honest.

My depth ended up being Ernie Brumbaugh (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=87506) and Glenn Podolyak (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=87523). Nothing noteworthy about either guy, really.


I tried semi-hard to move back into last year's draft to grab a RB. And failed. Looking back, how did that work out?

First, I offered a 2nd + 3rd package to get a late 2nd/early 3rd round pick to use on this guy, RB Ruben Collett (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6057&p=55975&viewfull=1#post55975). Didn't work, someone else took him, and sadly they messed up - position-switched him to WR and basically killed him. (Another fun quirk in FOF, you suit up a running back for one afternoon in jersey number 85 and BOOM he forgets how to play football)

So... jury's out on Collett. I can't even locate him, guessing he just up and retired after getting cut following the position-switch disaster.



Then I wanted RB Todd Wilson (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6057&p=56089&viewfull=1#post56089), offered a 5th and 6th to move in to get him. Nope. Went to AVAILABLE in Dallas.

Now? Wilson (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=87506) is your pretty standard 2nd year prospect. Got on the field for all of one play last season, watching his potential ratings decline, and likely never amounts to very much. I still like that bar profile a bit, and feel like this could be a nice role-player. But I don't think I would trade Lester for him, right now. Lester is solid across and trending up, Wilson has a few nice bars and is wasting away. We'll see if Wilson gets a legit chance this year - right now he's the only RB signed on the Dallas roster, so who knows?

So... RB is indeed an area to improve. But would it be awful if we went back into this season with the same two/three guys? Maybe... not so bad?

[QuikSand]

As I write, we're stalled AF at pick 1.13 of the draft... while our Ravens hold 1.21 and 1.22. It is very unlikely we draft a running back with either of those picks. And I am actively trying to trade away the rest of my picks for future draft capital. So... thinking we might end up just standing pat at RB, more or less.

I expect we have liberty to make some BPA type picks here. If I had to list needs for the next few years, they'd probably be Edge, CB, RB, LB, and TE, in something like that order.

[QuikSand]

Okay, two first rounders are in. My choice is made easier when Johnnyshaka's Browns take the FB (TE-to-be?) (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6057&p=56244&viewfull=1#post56244) I liked, just a couple picks ahead of me. I waffle on a couple choices, but end up just taking two DBs:

http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6057&p=56246&viewfull=1#post56246

http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6057&p=56247&viewfull=1#post56247

[QuikSand]

...and here's where I put some pieces of the puzzle together, just barely after the fact. I got stuck with a lousy DC with poor scouting skills. And the second guy I took, linked above, looks GREAT to my pinhead scout, but so-so to everyone else. I expect he will be a modest bust. Still hopeful the first guy can be a CB1.

[QuikSand]

Made a predictable trade to offload draft picks, gain a future (likely late) 1st:

http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6078&p=56257&viewfull=1#post56257

I have kept a mid-3rd this year, and will likely target either a RB or a KR/PR option with that pick.

[QuikSand]

Yawn. Transactions in FA stages 6-7:

FB Karl DeWalters

FA Stage 6

re-signed as an unrestricted free agent


SE Norman Hoover

FA Stage 6

re-signed as an unrestricted free agent

Two affinity gimps, re-signed without incident, good


RDT Max Thornton

FA Stage 6

signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,360,000.

Hard to see him sticking, despite a 91 personality


LDE Terrell Mealey

FA Stage 7

re-signed as an unrestricted free agent


He's a solid rotation-caliber pass rusher, good guy to keep. *( PR Tech, 94 personality)


FL Steven Wasiak

FA Stage 7

signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $6,920,000.

73/77 KR, could be WR 4/5, but we'd need to juggle to make him a chem fit...he's a 2/3, same as our leader...will explore options

[QuikSand]

So, body count right now:

49 players under contract
06 leading bids in free agency
03 draft picks incoming
---
58 hypothetical players heading into late free agency

I'm positioned well to grab a young FA late if need be...always on the lookout for guys getting cut by AI teams, that sort of thing. I don't think I'm going to get either a RB or a KR/PR with my 3rd round pick (my top guys queued up are elsewhere) so I will be hopeful there.

Roster is in pretty good shape. We have space to use for some extensions. Biggest question mark is whether we commit big bucks to Mr. Wonderful, who lives up to his nickname at LB on the field, but won't play tiddly-winks with the team.

[QuikSand]

FYI, we are not going to get RB Dashawn Lindsay. He's getting offers from AVAILABLE, so he will be blessed with another fat-bonus deal for 3 years, earn $15m in bonus money and another 4m in salary, play RB2 for a year and tally 70 carries, and then get released. Or something like that. So it goes. Don't pay close attention to the AI, is the thing I'm saying here.

[QuikSand]

FA Stage 8, after a brief hiatus:

SS Thomas Thomas

FA Stage 8

re-signed as an unrestricted free agent

Affinity fill-in


RB Dashawn Lindsay

FA Stage 8

turned down a contract offer: 1yrs, $7,000,000.

As expected, got a solid deal from AVAILABLE


RG Donnie Darby

FA Stage 8

re-signed as an unrestricted free agent

Getting a guy like him is easy, but him exactly is expensive


SE Rondell Benton

FA Stage 8

signed as an unrestricted free agent from Arizona: 2yrs, $25,000,000.

Cap space, so this. He's been a 4y part-timer, was asking for pretty big money and so this is a team-friendly offer. High affinity, but skills are in the wrong places... but sure where he'd line up, maybe in the slot? Doubtful he makes the team, I think.


C Kelvin Borrelli

FA Stage 8

signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $7,320,000.

An old friend. Has his starts. Still has big potential in run blocking. Outside shot to make the team, affinity is too low, otherwise he'd be a cohesion guy by now.

LG Marcus Freysinger

FA Stage 8

turned down a contract offer: 4yrs, $84,000,000.

Another team-friendly option, just in case nobody wanted him. he got real guarantees from Dallas, goes there, It's fine, he's a better player overall than G Darby who re-signed with us, he just wouldn't have the cohesion for us.

LS Mercury Houghtlin

FA Stage 9

signed as an unrestricted free agent from Oakland: 1yrs, $5,500,000.

Whatever, just a team option in case there's nobody after the draft.

[QuikSand]

Lining up my special teams for the season ahead. Most of this is already in place, so here's how we look... bar splits the guys I intend to leave "encouraged" from the best-rated active guys who won't be.

RB/FB
FB Lusignan 100

TE/WR
TE Barnett 93
TE Weydahl 86
- - - - -
WR Slade 70

D7
DE Anthony 100
LB Tanner 100
LB Rossini 100
LB Randolph 100
DT Calhoun 95
DE Baither 89
- - - - -
LB Harris 78


DB
CB Metzenbaum 92
CB Slechta 92
- - - - -
CB Baskerville 78


Looking very strong. Rookies, we'll see.

[QuikSand]

Okay, the end of early free agency is a non-event. We get our last two fill-in guys (CB Baskerville and DE Baither) uncontested, don't miss out on anyone. I do a number of mainly inconsequential renegotiations, plus one big one (T Shepherd locked up long term, STUD). And we are on into late free agency.

59 players signed at this point. We are a shade over the cap. Have some empty contracts that can fix that, starting with the fat contract WR we just signed - he gone. So, with that move, we are $4m under the cap, and have some room to play ball.

I think I am done with extension renegs. Last guy left I would like to extend is DE Anthony - he's a good fit for what I want to do, he's probably talented enough to play DE3 as a rotation guy, he's got super high endurance and mad special teams, but only a 40 personality. So... is he a $10m guy going forward? Maybe as I do cutdowns, we will free up the room to extend him out. But I'm resigned to letting a few quality players test the FA waters next year.

[QuikSand]

Rookie report:

Only three draft picks, and I think I'm getting what I expect here, including the disappointment with our second guy in round one.

CB Samuel Gallop is the guy I had targeted, scouts loved him, and he starts out as a limited-bar but highly developed type. His initial appearance is really good in bump, zone, and interceptions -- hey, just what I would want from him. Not sure he's a future CB1, but very possibly a CB2 and long term asset. Profile pretty similar to this guy from another league (http://ccfl.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=23182), whom I lucked into after-draft, but has turned into a really nice CB3. If I have to spend a 1st round pick to get a quality guy like this... I guess it's okay.

1st round DB Emmanuel Conway looks... okay. A big PH bar is an encouraging sign, but nearly all his other skills are low-development. I don't knwo what to make of a bump bar of 37/69... I honestly have just forgotten how strong an indicator that is (as a supposedly static bar, coming in with a lot of unrealized potential is... a sign that he's a total phony, perhaps). If he were to develop toward his full set of bars, he could be really well suited for time at safety with us. At worst, maybe he's a rotation-caliber DB who will develop serious ST skills, and that still would have value.

3rd round LB Shane Wilkerson is going to be tricky. I think he can improve, but at 239 pounds I don't know that he can play with his hand in the dirt, were he seems best suited skills-wise. I usually ignore small weigh issues, but that seems too much to overlook. So, he's maybe a rotation-caliber ILB who can play the run/pass a little bit each, and will just sit on some pass-rushing talent that we won't use, as I am not a believer in blitzing very much.

[QuikSand]

So, how important is a guy like WR Moe Bernal (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=81833) to this team?

The case FOR:
-several legit receiver ratings: bpr, courage both >80
-100 personality great for chemistry
-been aboard for 4 seasons, so adds some cohesion

The case AGAINST:
-he wants realist money, like $8m/yr
-he’s been about a 6.5 ypt guy for us
-zero rating in Route Running

Basically, this comes down to the value of a player like him… Who has several specific ratings that would suggest he could be useful in a limited role. But, in FOF, it just doesn’t appear that that really works. It all seems to come down to the route running rating, which is the Lord God among them. This guy has a void there, not just a 20 but a zero… And so in my working theory of FOF, his real number on the visible 0-10 scale, might be a -30. And if he is truly that bad at the route running skill, that means he will always have trouble getting open, being targeted, or really being the first choice on a given play. And, whether we like it or not, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that low RR simply means the guy can’t play wide receiver. He really won’t be a good “big play receiver” despite his surface rating there.

I would like to think that a set of skills like his could be useful in a situational role, maybe like Cordarrelle Patterson has found in the NFL. Not a conventional receiver, maybe for lack of route running skills, but still useful in some ways… Whatever it would be that would make a wide receiver have exceptional ability at big play receiving, it just seems like you should be able to harness that talent in some productive way on a football team. Alas, this guy does not seem to add any real value on the field. So, he’s basically not worth anything more than a stiff. But, I can find, and afford that stuff… I don’t need him to be a cohesion factor, if he’s just going to sit on the in active roster for this team, and I definitely don’t need to pay him 8 million bucks to do so.

Sigh. I have a half-hearted offer in for him.

[QuikSand]

Late free agency. No major news, I don't see any undrafted rookie making the team this year.

We did re-up on team-friendly deals with PR Ramon Matthews and WR Moe Bernal. No other interest. Bernal may remain our WR3 option. Matthews is high cohesion and chem at this point, and is a better PR option than anyone else we've got - he has posted about a 19yd average with us, which is great.

Uneventful camp stage, really.

[QuikSand]

Well, despite having two first round picks, we finish dead last in the BenBot draft rankings (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6084&p=56476&viewfull=1#post56476). No shock.

I'm still fairly optimistic that we landed two decent quality guys, but admittedly even if I'm dead on there it's hard to say we got good value from that much draft capital. I'm used to that.

[QuikSand]

Okay, it's cutdown day. Preseason done, the last ratings moves are in, and it's pink slip time.

Biggest surprise, to me, is that CB Alexis Montano gets his walking papers. I signed him thinking he'd be our CB2 for a while. But he suffered a ratings slip last year - the league dimwit scout nothing him down from 43 to 38. He still played well for us - an 81.4 in-game PD% rating. This year, scout downgraded him to 28... as he was inactive during preseason (that seems to hurt a lot). So, he's gone, and we eat some bonus money as a result. Sucks.

So, we extend CB Slechta, as our CB1, and will rely on a rotation of guys underneath him, without a true CB2 for the foreseeable future. Don't love that, to be honest.

Rookies look disappointing, should have expected this. I just need to do better. Or do more trades of draft picks for cheap vets. I am not maximizing this asset, at all.

[QuikSand]

Lamantations aside, this could be a good year. Our roster rating is a 46 overall in-game, with a 41-rated QB and my top receivers rated 63 and 53. That should add up to an 8-8 club, maybe. But we have cohesion and chemistry out the ying yang, and that was the main idea here.

I think this is a 12-4 club, with those factors worked in. I'm hopeful we can overcome some roster weaknesses, and all those places where I have "bums" like CB Metzenbaum and Baskerville playing real time - they will work out not because the players are great, but because we know what we're doing here. Cohesion. Chemistry. Let's go get it.

A year delayed, but here it is, let's make this season the payoff. Win it all with a cast of hobos.

[QuikSand]

We are not a 12-4 club. We are not a title contender.

GML: Baltimore Ravens 2113 (http://gml.fof-belco.com/teampage.php?teamid=2)

So, 10-5-1? What happened here?

Teddy was good enough. Not great, but an 84 rating is good enough.
Running game was okay. Kept even with the opposition.
Turnovers were great, we were +15, league best.
Receivers were ok, except Barlow (150 targets only 772 yds)

So, what happened? Defense stinks?
Defense stinks, yes. 15th in ypa, not good enough.
We were 3rd in ppg allowed, so again... why didn't we go 12-4?

Ugh.

[QuikSand]

The indignity of a goddamned road game. FFS.

[Chas in Cinti]

GB, Jax, Cincy home losses hurt... pretty impressive to go 10-5-1 when you're only 5-3 at home...

[QuikSand]

Just sucks. Very disappointed. "Intangibles" are supposed to break our way, what with all this voodoo crap in the background. Honestly, if we were -11 instead if +15 in turnovers, that alone would have me feeling like we just weren't good enough. But we just should have been better than this.

Not exactly the 2010 Chargers (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAL5X3TRA2A), but... sumpin.

[QuikSand]

Postseason is more or less what I'd expect. We win our road opener, but all four bye week teams win their first game at home, and all the wild card round winners are gone. We lose (in a blowout) to Cinti, who manages to go on to win it all. Way to go nicon22.

Wonderful.

Will get the file, and look at the retirement damage. It should start adding up, as this team is now getting old.

[QuikSand]

Three transactions, but one major impact we foresaw - C Castillo is predictably done. I didn't see WR Lester leaving, though. Potentially a function of me fucking around with "starts" to get various assclowns their chemistry triggered. Alas.

C Ezekiel Castillo

Pre-Staff Draft

retired


C Myles Aydelotte

Pre-Staff Draft

retired


SE Victor Lester

Pre-Staff Draft

retired

[QuikSand]

So, how important is a guy like WR Moe Bernal (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=81833) to this team?
...

Sigh. I have a half-hearted offer in for him.

Quick check-in on this guy. 16 starts, 28 targets, 104 yards, zero TD.

He's always been weak, but <4 ypt is unusually weak, even for him.

[QuikSand]

..are we still a "go for it" team? Not really sure. Geez, this sucks.

[QuikSand]

http://gml.fof-belco.com/pinned_ears.php

With 5 sacks in only 8 tackles, Terrell Mealey (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=85413) scores top-10 all time in Ben's "advanced" ear-pinner stat. Best ever for a Raven, and that is with some stout competition.

He's a delight to have on the roster.

(oops, edit - last year was his big stat year, but this season was again top-25)

[QuikSand]

Okay, on to 2114 in earnest.

Big stage today, the FA 1:2... basically where I'm putting together my annual "plan." I will, as usual, elaborate that stuff here. Not sure whether I remain in "veterans only, no compromising on cohesion, we're in it to win it" mode. That perspective should emerge more clearly in the time as I am writing, ahead.

[QuikSand]

So, my usual head count here:

33 players signed
08 draft picks this year (1.26 and 1.28)
01 RFAs as no-brainer re-signings
---
42 players "in hand" as we kick off free agency

I have a number of players on the roster, but on expired contracts. So, we will make our usual foray into the open market of free agency, both targeting our own guys to return and, as usual, select "good fit" players who might fit in around our current cadre.

[QuikSand]

Incidentally, once again RB is going to be interesting. Grant Lester (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=87477) has managed to post up over 2,000 on the ground, with a decent 4.5 ypc average, in his two years as a minsal starter. Now, he reckons, he's a $20m player. Fun!

So...we will have to sort out whether he makes sense to actually pay, or whether we go young yet again. His wingman (http://gml.fof-belco.com/playercard.php?playerid=87523) has merely 80 touches across two seasons, but he himself is thinking he's about $8m worth right now.

Since they are 3rd year guys, I do have the option to offer a fat 1yr deal, and defer any long term decisions until later. So, that remains in play, especially if my early draft picks don't yield a potential starter here.

[QuikSand]

By the way... the league-scout view of Podolyak linked above is probably making you (well, Chas, maybe just you) think "Quik is nuts, that guy is a star!"

Please know that my in-game scout (scouting ability 95 for HC, 75 for OC) shows Podolyak at 39/43, and a very pedestrian okay-at-everything level, nowhere near what the in-game scout thinks. Methinks maybe the play here is to try to peddle him off in a sign-and-trade deal based on the league website making him look like a minor monster there. :rubshands:

[QuikSand]

Trade solicitation posted (http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6091&goto=newpost)

[Chas in Cinti]

(well, Chas, maybe just you) think "Quik is nuts, that guy is a star!"

Of course, I called for him to start the last 2 years, and obviously you made a good decision with Lester... so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt I think... :)

[QuikSand]

Well, I won't rule out that we decide $20m+ to Lester is foolish, and we hand Polodyak the starting job for this year at $7m or so, whatever a one year fat-bonus deal costs us.

[QuikSand]

..and technically, I don't deserve credit for starting Lester. I need a civil war style term for "the season I had worked for for months of real time and then missed the key file and let Otto run the whole thing." Perhaps "the unpleasantness" will do.