nilodor
12-22-2023, 02:24 PM
It's me again. I've already posted the RB ratings, there is a lot of discussion up front as to the methodology that I've used. What I've focused on is a players 3 year peak. For receivers I looked at their AV (see the RB thread), receptions, yards per receptions, and fumbles. To account for eras I've normal
Who is the greatest of all time? That question is probably less interesting than who the second greatest of all time is.
So what are the typical league averages?
You can see a big shift in the league at the end of the 80's as the deep bombing got replaced by shorter, west coast offense style passing.
1960 2.2 16.0 2%
1961 2.3 16.0 2%
1962 2.2 16.4 2%
1963 2.5 16.4 3%
1964 2.4 15.9 3%
1965 2.1 16.3 3%
1966 1.9 16.3 2%
1967 2.0 16.1 3%
1968 1.9 16.8 2%
1969 2.0 16.5 3%
1970 1.8 16.5 3%
1971 1.7 16.7 3%
1972 1.6 16.3 3%
1973 1.5 16.1 3%
1974 1.5 16.2 3%
1975 1.8 16.4 3%
1976 1.5 16.9 4%
1977 1.5 16.2 5%
1978 1.5 16.0 5%
1979 1.7 16.5 3%
1980 1.8 16.0 2%
1981 1.9 16.7 4%
1982 1.9 16.0 4%
1983 2.0 15.7 3%
1984 1.9 16.0 2%
1985 1.9 16.0 3%
1986 2.0 16.0 3%
1987 2.1 16.0 3%
1988 2.0 15.6 3%
1989 2.1 15.2 2%
1990 2.0 14.7 2%
1991 2.2 14.0 2%
1992 2.1 14.0 2%
1993 2.2 13.6 2%
1994 2.3 14.2 2%
1995 2.4 14.0 3%
1996 2.4 13.7 3%
1997 2.2 14.1 3%
1998 2.2 14.7 2%
1999 2.5 14.1 3%
2000 2.4 13.7 3%
2001 2.5 13.4 3%
2002 2.7 13.2 3%
2003 2.5 13.3 2%
2004 2.5 14.0 3%
2005 2.6 13.4 2%
2006 2.4 13.5 2%
2007 2.7 13.0 2%
2008 2.5 13.1 2%
2009 2.5 13.3 3%
2010 2.5 13.4 3%
2011 2.4 13.7 2%
2012 2.5 13.3 2%
2013 2.6 13.2 2%
2014 2.6 13.1 2%
2015 2.6 13.1 2%
2016 2.6 12.7 2%
2017 2.3 12.9 3%
2018 2.4 12.9 2%
2019 2.4 13.2 2%
2020 2.6 12.5 2%
2021 2.5 12.8 2%
So mirror mirror on the wall, who's the best receiver of them all?
According to AV? Yeah it's Jerry Rice and it's not particularly close. Only Wes Chandler has a single season peak higher than Jerry, and his career peak..
Jerry Rice 20
Michael Irvin 17.66666667
Marvin Harrison 17
Terrell Owens 16.66666667
Randy Moss 16.66666667
Reggie Wayne 16
Antonio Brown 15.66666667
Michael Thomas 15.66666667
Lance Alworth 15.66666667
Julio Jones 15.33333333
Don Maynard 15.33333333
Bobby Mitchell 15.33333333
Cliff Branch 15
Isaac Bruce 14.66666667
Torry Holt 14.66666667
Herman Moore 14.66666667
Chad Johnson 14.66666667
Bob Hayes 14.66666667
Max McGee 14.66666667
Wes Welker 14.33333333
Paul Warfield 14.33333333
Rod Smith 14.33333333
Roddy White 14.33333333
Demaryius Thomas 14.33333333
Tim Brown 14.33333333
Homer Jones 14.33333333
Jordy Nelson 14
Sterling Sharpe 14
Jimmy Smith 14
Cris Carter 13.66666667
Andre Johnson 13.66666667
Wes Chandler 13.66666667
Andre Reed 13.66666667
Calvin Johnson 13.66666667
Tyreek Hill 13.66666667
James Lofton 13.66666667
Del Shofner 13.66666667
It's almost double the next closest receiver.
Name AV Sum
Jerry Rice 251
Terrell Owens 167
Randy Moss 162
Marvin Harrison 161
Reggie Wayne 153
Tim Brown 146
James Lofton 142
Steve Largent 140
Steve Smith 139
Paul Warfield 138
Larry Fitzgerald 138
Isaac Bruce 136
Cris Carter 135
Henry Ellard 134
Charlie Joiner 134
Andre Reed 133
Don Maynard 132
Jimmy Smith 129
Rod Smith 128
Michael Irvin 126
Art Monk 125
Andre Johnson 124
Charley Taylor 124
Harold Jackson 124
Torry Holt 123
Derrick Mason 123
Keenan McCardell 122
Lance Alworth 120
Julio Jones 119
Fred Biletnikoff 118
Hines Ward 118
Anquan Boldin 118
Irving Fryar 112
When it comes to who had the most receptions relative to the league average. Jerry comes in a pedestrian 8th place. What's interesting is paring this with the yards/reception. So you can see the difference between possession style receivers and deep threats or more all-around options. Contrast Wes Welker's 4% over average with Jerry's 13% over average.
Name Rec 3yr Yrd/Rec 3yr
Charley Hennigan 1.96 1.01
Michael Thomas 1.87 0.94
Antonio Brown 1.78 1.04
Wes Welker 1.77 0.96
Sterling Sharpe 1.76 1.04
Marvin Harrison 1.76 1.02
Art Monk 1.75 0.96
Jerry Rice 1.75 1.13
Charley Taylor 1.75 0.95
Cris Carter 1.75 1.03
Herman Moore 1.73 1.14
Lionel Taylor 1.71 0.92
Dwight Clark 1.71 0.95
DeAndre Hopkins 1.70 1.10
Davante Adams 1.70 0.99
Torry Holt 1.69 1.20
Jimmy Smith 1.68 1.08
Larry Fitzgerald 1.67 1.06
Al Toon 1.66 0.92
Julio Jones 1.66 1.20
Jarvis Landry 1.64 0.99
Brandon Marshall 1.64 1.00
J.T. Smith 1.64 0.95
Andre Johnson 1.64 1.08
Keenan Allen 1.63 0.99
Roddy White 1.63 1.12
Calvin Johnson 1.62 1.22
T.J. Houshmandzadeh 1.62 0.97
Ahmad Rashad 1.62 0.94
Haywood Jeffires 1.62 0.98
Rod Smith 1.61 1.11
Terrell Owens 1.61 1.14
Andre Rison 1.60 1.02
Hines Ward 1.60 0.98
Randy Moss 1.60 1.23
Bob Chandler 1.59 1.01
Steve Largent 1.58 1.08
Odell Beckham Jr. 1.58 1.08
John Jefferson 1.58 1.05
I think the list of yards per reception gives a lot of the more exciting receivers. Willie Gault, Randy Moss, Alworth and the like.
Name Rec 3yr Yrd/Rec 3yr
Devery Henderson 1.00 1.38
Flipper Anderson 1.13 1.34
Homer Jones 1.27 1.31
DeSean Jackson 1.27 1.30
Alvin Harper 1.03 1.29
Mike Wallace 1.30 1.28
Warren Wells 1.29 1.27
Willie Gault 1.09 1.26
Malcom Floyd 1.16 1.25
Stanley Morgan 1.34 1.25
Wesley Walker 1.36 1.25
Frank Clarke 1.23 1.25
Henry Ellard 1.56 1.24
James Lofton 1.49 1.24
Paul Warfield 1.26 1.24
Vincent Jackson 1.31 1.24
Chris Sanders 1.00 1.23
JJ Nelson 0.89 1.23
Randy Moss 1.60 1.23
Mike Williams 1.13 1.23
Ashley Lelie 1.06 1.23
Bob Hayes 1.39 1.22
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 0.92 1.22
Bobby Duckworth 0.92 1.22
Breshad Perriman 0.99 1.22
Torrey Smith 1.14 1.22
Lance Alworth 1.55 1.22
John Gilliam 1.33 1.22
Calvin Johnson 1.62 1.22
T.Y. Hilton 1.38 1.21
Mike Evans 1.45 1.21
Joe Morgan 0.85 1.21
Anyways, you put everything together and these were the ratings at the end of the 2021 season.
Name Ovr Route Yac Fmb
Randy Moss 9 7 8 8
Michael Irvin 9 7 6 7
Terrell Owens 9 8 5 9
Jerry Rice 9 9 5 4
Marvin Harrison 9 9 2 6
Lance Alworth 8 7 8 8
Julio Jones 8 8 7 5
Don Maynard 8 6 7 5
Reggie Wayne 8 7 3 7
Antonio Brown 8 9 2 4
Sterling Sharpe 8 9 2 4
Michael Thomas 8 9 1 4
Bob Hayes 7 5 8 2
Torry Holt 7 8 7 2
Herman Moore 7 9 6 9
Isaac Bruce 7 6 6 8
Cliff Branch 7 6 5 6
Chad Johnson 7 7 4 7
Bobby Mitchell 7 5 4 2
Max McGee 7 3 3 2
Wes Welker 7 9 1 3
Homer Jones 6 4 9 3
James Lofton 6 6 9 7
Paul Warfield 6 4 9 5
Calvin Johnson 6 8 8 3
Tyreek Hill 6 5 6 5
Jordy Nelson 6 6 6 9
Demaryius Thomas 6 7 5 4
Roddy White 6 8 5 5
Rod Smith 6 8 4 5
Steve Smith 6 7 4 3
Andre Johnson 6 8 3 9
Jimmy Smith 6 8 3 5
Larry Fitzgerald 6 8 3 9
Wes Chandler 6 6 3 2
Andre Reed 6 7 2 4
Tim Brown 6 7 2 7
Cris Carter 6 9 2 3
Who is the greatest of all time? That question is probably less interesting than who the second greatest of all time is.
So what are the typical league averages?
You can see a big shift in the league at the end of the 80's as the deep bombing got replaced by shorter, west coast offense style passing.
1960 2.2 16.0 2%
1961 2.3 16.0 2%
1962 2.2 16.4 2%
1963 2.5 16.4 3%
1964 2.4 15.9 3%
1965 2.1 16.3 3%
1966 1.9 16.3 2%
1967 2.0 16.1 3%
1968 1.9 16.8 2%
1969 2.0 16.5 3%
1970 1.8 16.5 3%
1971 1.7 16.7 3%
1972 1.6 16.3 3%
1973 1.5 16.1 3%
1974 1.5 16.2 3%
1975 1.8 16.4 3%
1976 1.5 16.9 4%
1977 1.5 16.2 5%
1978 1.5 16.0 5%
1979 1.7 16.5 3%
1980 1.8 16.0 2%
1981 1.9 16.7 4%
1982 1.9 16.0 4%
1983 2.0 15.7 3%
1984 1.9 16.0 2%
1985 1.9 16.0 3%
1986 2.0 16.0 3%
1987 2.1 16.0 3%
1988 2.0 15.6 3%
1989 2.1 15.2 2%
1990 2.0 14.7 2%
1991 2.2 14.0 2%
1992 2.1 14.0 2%
1993 2.2 13.6 2%
1994 2.3 14.2 2%
1995 2.4 14.0 3%
1996 2.4 13.7 3%
1997 2.2 14.1 3%
1998 2.2 14.7 2%
1999 2.5 14.1 3%
2000 2.4 13.7 3%
2001 2.5 13.4 3%
2002 2.7 13.2 3%
2003 2.5 13.3 2%
2004 2.5 14.0 3%
2005 2.6 13.4 2%
2006 2.4 13.5 2%
2007 2.7 13.0 2%
2008 2.5 13.1 2%
2009 2.5 13.3 3%
2010 2.5 13.4 3%
2011 2.4 13.7 2%
2012 2.5 13.3 2%
2013 2.6 13.2 2%
2014 2.6 13.1 2%
2015 2.6 13.1 2%
2016 2.6 12.7 2%
2017 2.3 12.9 3%
2018 2.4 12.9 2%
2019 2.4 13.2 2%
2020 2.6 12.5 2%
2021 2.5 12.8 2%
So mirror mirror on the wall, who's the best receiver of them all?
According to AV? Yeah it's Jerry Rice and it's not particularly close. Only Wes Chandler has a single season peak higher than Jerry, and his career peak..
Jerry Rice 20
Michael Irvin 17.66666667
Marvin Harrison 17
Terrell Owens 16.66666667
Randy Moss 16.66666667
Reggie Wayne 16
Antonio Brown 15.66666667
Michael Thomas 15.66666667
Lance Alworth 15.66666667
Julio Jones 15.33333333
Don Maynard 15.33333333
Bobby Mitchell 15.33333333
Cliff Branch 15
Isaac Bruce 14.66666667
Torry Holt 14.66666667
Herman Moore 14.66666667
Chad Johnson 14.66666667
Bob Hayes 14.66666667
Max McGee 14.66666667
Wes Welker 14.33333333
Paul Warfield 14.33333333
Rod Smith 14.33333333
Roddy White 14.33333333
Demaryius Thomas 14.33333333
Tim Brown 14.33333333
Homer Jones 14.33333333
Jordy Nelson 14
Sterling Sharpe 14
Jimmy Smith 14
Cris Carter 13.66666667
Andre Johnson 13.66666667
Wes Chandler 13.66666667
Andre Reed 13.66666667
Calvin Johnson 13.66666667
Tyreek Hill 13.66666667
James Lofton 13.66666667
Del Shofner 13.66666667
It's almost double the next closest receiver.
Name AV Sum
Jerry Rice 251
Terrell Owens 167
Randy Moss 162
Marvin Harrison 161
Reggie Wayne 153
Tim Brown 146
James Lofton 142
Steve Largent 140
Steve Smith 139
Paul Warfield 138
Larry Fitzgerald 138
Isaac Bruce 136
Cris Carter 135
Henry Ellard 134
Charlie Joiner 134
Andre Reed 133
Don Maynard 132
Jimmy Smith 129
Rod Smith 128
Michael Irvin 126
Art Monk 125
Andre Johnson 124
Charley Taylor 124
Harold Jackson 124
Torry Holt 123
Derrick Mason 123
Keenan McCardell 122
Lance Alworth 120
Julio Jones 119
Fred Biletnikoff 118
Hines Ward 118
Anquan Boldin 118
Irving Fryar 112
When it comes to who had the most receptions relative to the league average. Jerry comes in a pedestrian 8th place. What's interesting is paring this with the yards/reception. So you can see the difference between possession style receivers and deep threats or more all-around options. Contrast Wes Welker's 4% over average with Jerry's 13% over average.
Name Rec 3yr Yrd/Rec 3yr
Charley Hennigan 1.96 1.01
Michael Thomas 1.87 0.94
Antonio Brown 1.78 1.04
Wes Welker 1.77 0.96
Sterling Sharpe 1.76 1.04
Marvin Harrison 1.76 1.02
Art Monk 1.75 0.96
Jerry Rice 1.75 1.13
Charley Taylor 1.75 0.95
Cris Carter 1.75 1.03
Herman Moore 1.73 1.14
Lionel Taylor 1.71 0.92
Dwight Clark 1.71 0.95
DeAndre Hopkins 1.70 1.10
Davante Adams 1.70 0.99
Torry Holt 1.69 1.20
Jimmy Smith 1.68 1.08
Larry Fitzgerald 1.67 1.06
Al Toon 1.66 0.92
Julio Jones 1.66 1.20
Jarvis Landry 1.64 0.99
Brandon Marshall 1.64 1.00
J.T. Smith 1.64 0.95
Andre Johnson 1.64 1.08
Keenan Allen 1.63 0.99
Roddy White 1.63 1.12
Calvin Johnson 1.62 1.22
T.J. Houshmandzadeh 1.62 0.97
Ahmad Rashad 1.62 0.94
Haywood Jeffires 1.62 0.98
Rod Smith 1.61 1.11
Terrell Owens 1.61 1.14
Andre Rison 1.60 1.02
Hines Ward 1.60 0.98
Randy Moss 1.60 1.23
Bob Chandler 1.59 1.01
Steve Largent 1.58 1.08
Odell Beckham Jr. 1.58 1.08
John Jefferson 1.58 1.05
I think the list of yards per reception gives a lot of the more exciting receivers. Willie Gault, Randy Moss, Alworth and the like.
Name Rec 3yr Yrd/Rec 3yr
Devery Henderson 1.00 1.38
Flipper Anderson 1.13 1.34
Homer Jones 1.27 1.31
DeSean Jackson 1.27 1.30
Alvin Harper 1.03 1.29
Mike Wallace 1.30 1.28
Warren Wells 1.29 1.27
Willie Gault 1.09 1.26
Malcom Floyd 1.16 1.25
Stanley Morgan 1.34 1.25
Wesley Walker 1.36 1.25
Frank Clarke 1.23 1.25
Henry Ellard 1.56 1.24
James Lofton 1.49 1.24
Paul Warfield 1.26 1.24
Vincent Jackson 1.31 1.24
Chris Sanders 1.00 1.23
JJ Nelson 0.89 1.23
Randy Moss 1.60 1.23
Mike Williams 1.13 1.23
Ashley Lelie 1.06 1.23
Bob Hayes 1.39 1.22
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 0.92 1.22
Bobby Duckworth 0.92 1.22
Breshad Perriman 0.99 1.22
Torrey Smith 1.14 1.22
Lance Alworth 1.55 1.22
John Gilliam 1.33 1.22
Calvin Johnson 1.62 1.22
T.Y. Hilton 1.38 1.21
Mike Evans 1.45 1.21
Joe Morgan 0.85 1.21
Anyways, you put everything together and these were the ratings at the end of the 2021 season.
Name Ovr Route Yac Fmb
Randy Moss 9 7 8 8
Michael Irvin 9 7 6 7
Terrell Owens 9 8 5 9
Jerry Rice 9 9 5 4
Marvin Harrison 9 9 2 6
Lance Alworth 8 7 8 8
Julio Jones 8 8 7 5
Don Maynard 8 6 7 5
Reggie Wayne 8 7 3 7
Antonio Brown 8 9 2 4
Sterling Sharpe 8 9 2 4
Michael Thomas 8 9 1 4
Bob Hayes 7 5 8 2
Torry Holt 7 8 7 2
Herman Moore 7 9 6 9
Isaac Bruce 7 6 6 8
Cliff Branch 7 6 5 6
Chad Johnson 7 7 4 7
Bobby Mitchell 7 5 4 2
Max McGee 7 3 3 2
Wes Welker 7 9 1 3
Homer Jones 6 4 9 3
James Lofton 6 6 9 7
Paul Warfield 6 4 9 5
Calvin Johnson 6 8 8 3
Tyreek Hill 6 5 6 5
Jordy Nelson 6 6 6 9
Demaryius Thomas 6 7 5 4
Roddy White 6 8 5 5
Rod Smith 6 8 4 5
Steve Smith 6 7 4 3
Andre Johnson 6 8 3 9
Jimmy Smith 6 8 3 5
Larry Fitzgerald 6 8 3 9
Wes Chandler 6 6 3 2
Andre Reed 6 7 2 4
Tim Brown 6 7 2 7
Cris Carter 6 9 2 3