Priest Holmes

[TLK]

Holmes out to show he has recovered from hip injury

RIVER FALLS, Wis. (AP) -- Priest Holmes figures contract talk can wait. Right now, he's focused on showing he's overcome the hip injury that sidelined him in December.

Holmes and the Chiefs had their first day of training camp Sunday, and Kansas City's star running back said he is confident he can regain the form that earned him NFL offensive player of the year honors last year.

If he can do that, his other major concern -- a contract extension -- should take care of itself.


``I feel like $15 million, but I just don't have the paycheck,'' said Holmes, who had 1,615 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns in 2002. ``It's not going to become an issue, because of the fact that (general manager Carl) Peterson has made it very clear how he stands with everything we're doing. It's one of those things that will be a mutual understanding.''

Holmes is in the third year of a five-year, $8 million contract. He is seeking an extension that would include a hefty signing bonus and possibly allow him to retire as a Chief.

Peterson has been adamant that there will be no new contract, but an extension is possible depending on the running back's health. Holmes, who underwent arthroscopic hip surgery in March, indicated on a Kansas City radio show last week that if the contract issues aren't settled by the season opener, he might sit out.

On Sunday, however, Holmes said there is no timetable to get a new deal done.

``We have plenty of time,'' he said. ``There's so much work to get done before that time. Really, it was just a matter of getting all 91 guys here, and we have everyone in camp.''

Any thoughts Holmes may have had about sitting out training camp ended with the signing of Kansas City's first-round draft pick, running back Larry Johnson.

``I can't believe that Larry Johnson signed so early,'' Holmes said. ``Most people say, 'What is he, crazy? He's supposed to wait for the one in front of him and the one behind him to sign.' But at the same time, it says a lot about him.

``He wants to get out here and get working, so for me to say, 'Hey, I'm not going to camp,' is not even a situation.''

Chiefs coach Dick Vermeil was happy to have Holmes at practice, and said the running back looked healthy.

``I was really pleased,'' Vermeil said. ``All the speculation was more speculation than fact. I thought he looked very good. I watched to see if he favored anything or showed any signs, and didn't see anything different.''




Any predictions on what we'll see out of Holmes this year?

I'll go with....
9 Games
650 Rushing Yards
6 TD's

[Travis]

16 games, 1843 rushing yards, 463 receiving yards, 13 total TD's

Yeah, I have him in a keeper league, why do you ask ;)

[bigdawg2003]

If y'all had a fantasy draft today, where would you take Holmes? Is he still the consensus #1, or do you wait and hope he falls a round or two.

[mckerney]

I live about 10 miles from the Chiefs training camp, maybe I should go over there and watch how he's doing.

[panerd]

Originally posted by Travis
16 games, 1843 rushing yards, 463 receiving yards, 13 total TD's

Yeah, I have him in a keeper league, why do you ask ;)

How do you like keeper leagues? I have been in two and both of them have eventually defeated the purpose of a keeper league. In both instances I had a pretty good team so I didn't do much, but my friends would try and trade great players to get prospects for the future and the league would fold at the end of the year. Both times this happened! Have you guys had success with your league?

[Ryche]

At this point, I think I would rate Holmes as the third pick behind Williams and Tomlinson. But he could easily move up or down depending on what we see during training camp.

My prediction: 1.100 yards rushing, 650 yards receiving, 14 TDs.

[cthomer5000]

I'd expect him to do about 60-70% of what he did last season. First of all he had a legendary season. If it weren't for the injury, he would have broken the TD record. Since that is almost certainly the best season he'll ever have, we know he won't hit that mark again. Secondly, they have Larry Johnson there to steal some carries from him. Third, he's coming off an injury. I wouldn't take hime #1 overall, In fact there are 2 or 3 running backs I would certainly take before him.

[Travis]

I've been in a keeper league for 4 years now (going on 5 this year). I took over a crappy team from a failed owner (it's a fairly serious league, done by hand by the commish), and over those 4 years, I started with back to back sub .500 years and evolved into back to back league champion (granted, the first title was more luck than management, but the repeat was convincing). We only get to keep 3 players each season, and can keep another that we acquire through an offseason trade (which is a nice incentive to interact with other owners). The things that makes our league work is a dedicated commish and fairly knowledgable owners who enjoy the league and keep coming back.

As far as Priest is concerned, he put up those numbers in an injury shortened year, it's not wholly ridiculous to expect the same kind of numbers if he plays an entire season this year (giving the slight decline in game by game numbers, but an increase in games played).

[Darkiller]

Funny how most people tend to take a RB with the #1 pick in the Fantasy Draft...

i remember the only year that I got to a Championship game, it is because I used my #1 overall pick on a QB (and he proved my right indeed since he was almost all by himself the reason I had had success)

I think I'd rather have a QB with the 1st round pick than any other player.

[sachmo71]

Originally posted by Darkiller
Funny how most people tend to take a RB with the #1 pick in the Fantasy Draft...

i remember the only year that I got to a Championship game, it is because I used my #1 overall pick on a QB (and he proved my right indeed since he was almost all by himself the reason I had had success)

I think I'd rather have a QB with the 1st round pick than any other player.

It all depends on the scoring system, but in many systems, the value of the running back is higher than other position because they score the majority of points on average and you can start two of them. Recently, with the rash of injuries that have struck the top backs, there are some holes in this theory...

[Blade]

Personally, I think I would hold off from picking up Holmes in a fantasy draft...if he lasted till the late picks in the 1st round or the 2nd round, I would pick him up then. I think there will be a lot of reluctance this year, so he should drop in a lot of drafts...

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by sachmo71
It all depends on the scoring system, but in many systems, the value of the running back is higher than other position because they score the majority of points on average and you can start two of them. Recently, with the rash of injuries that have struck the top backs, there are some holes in this theory...

And more importantly, many top running backs are incredibly consistent. You can count on most for 100 yards receiving/rushing easily, and hopefully a touchdown. More than season totals, you need production week-in and week-out. A 20 yard game followed by a 200 yard game isn't as good as back to back 100 yarders.

I would take a top QB before a "solid" running back, but a premeire running back tops everything. Of course, people's perceptions of someone as a truly "top" player varies, which is what makes fantasy football so interesting. I'd say this season I'd probably put Ricky Williams and Ladanian Tomlinson on a shelf above all other backs.

I'd basically rank them like this:
Top RB
Top QB
Solid RB
Solid QB

[sachmo71]

Originally posted by Blade
Personally, I think I would hold off from picking up Holmes in a fantasy draft...if he lasted till the late picks in the 1st round or the 2nd round, I would pick him up then. I think there will be a lot of reluctance this year, so he should drop in a lot of drafts...

According to the average rankings at Antsports.com, Holmes is going at 1(5) to 1(6)...and that's in 12 team leagues.

[Travis]

No way Holmes slips out of the top half of the 1st round in any league (with at least 12 teams). If it's a smart owner picking him early, he'll of course make sure his top RB backup is somebody that is 'starter' calibre, but if he can stay healthy for 16 games, he'll post beautiful numbers, too good of an opportunity for 12 or 16 owners to pass up. Personally, I'd take him with the 4th or 5th pick if necessary, and dependant on the scoring system.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by Darkiller
Funny how most people tend to take a RB with the #1 pick in the Fantasy Draft...

i remember the only year that I got to a Championship game, it is because I used my #1 overall pick on a QB (and he proved my right indeed since he was almost all by himself the reason I had had success)

I think I'd rather have a QB with the 1st round pick than any other player.
The problem is that statistics blow this theory out of the water. On all of the last several years, the #1 QB has been only marginally better than the 10th best. Meanwhile, running back production drops off quickly and severely. This is a trend that has been pretty constant for a number of years.

Couple that with the trend that QB's rarely repeat in the top 5, and it makes taking a QB early an even more dicey proposition. How many QBs have been in the top 5 the each past two years? Three years?

If you are in a 10 team league starting 1QB and 2RB's (a very common league configuration) then RBs are SO much more valuable than QB's its not even close.

[tucker342]

I have the first pick in my fantasy league.... He'll definently be my first pick if he's healthy. But if he's not, I'm not really sure who should be my number one pick...

[bigdawg2003]

tucker

If you decide Holmes isn't your guy, you couldn't do wrong with Ricky & LT. Both are worthy #1s. And now that David Boston is in SD, defenses won't gear up just to stop LT.

[MIJB#19]

Originally posted by cthomer5000
I'd basically rank them like this:
Top RB
Top QB
Solid RB
Solid QB Where would you rank Top TE?
I know TE do not score many points, but their margin on a weekly base over other starters in fantasy football is maybe the biggest in all fantasy football.
Think of having Tony Gonzalez or Jeremy Shockey in stead of the 7th to 12th best TE in the leaguee, you're making a big gain on a weekly base.
I think of putting top TE above Top WR and even over the Solid QB.

Concidering the gamble on possibly injured RB, why not get that Larry Johnson guy in round 3 or 4 (he'll probably last even longer) to backup Priest Holmes?
That way, you only have to know who's starting every week.

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by MIJB#19
Where would you rank Top TE?
I know TE do not score many points, but their margin on a weekly base over other starters in fantasy football is maybe the biggest in all fantasy football.
Think of having Tony Gonzalez or Jeremy Shockey in stead of the 7th to 12th best TE in the leaguee, you're making a big gain on a weekly base.
I think of putting top TE above Top WR and even over the Solid QB.

Concidering the gamble on possibly injured RB, why not get that Larry Johnson guy in round 3 or 4 (he'll probably last even longer) to backup Priest Holmes?
That way, you only have to know who's starting every week.

We think exactly alike. Fantasy Football is all about you comparative advantage over others, not the absolute value of a player. This is exactly why you shouldn't take a QB #1 overall (talking to you Darkiller). I took Tony Gonzalez about a round earlier than anyone was thinking of last year. My logic was "He puts up numbers like a wide receiver, and his stats blow the next best tight end out of the water." Gonzalez is so much better than most tight ends that he's worth reaching for. That equation has been changed somewhat with the emergence of Shockey and Heap last year though. Now it's 3 tight ends and "the rest of the guys," when it had previously been Gonzalez and "the rest."

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by tucker342
I have the first pick in my fantasy league.... He'll definently be my first pick if he's healthy. But if he's not, I'm not really sure who should be my number one pick...

If you have the #1 overall pick, I think Holmes is an unnecassary risk. LaDanian Tomlinson and Ricky Williams should both have huge seasons, and neither is coming off a serious hip injury.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by cthomer5000
If you have the #1 overall pick, I think Holmes is an unnecassary risk. LaDanian Tomlinson and Ricky Williams should both have huge seasons, and neither is coming off a serious hip injury.
Depends on when you draft, I guess. If it is the week before the season, and Holmes has not had any problems I can see him being worth it. That said, there is no reason not to like Williams and Tomlinson (who is rated #1 by most experts).

[Fritz]

Originally posted by cthomer5000
We think exactly alike. Fantasy Football is all about you comparative advantage over others, not the absolute value of a player. This is exactly why you shouldn't take a QB #1 overall (talking to you Darkiller). I took Tony Gonzalez about a round earlier than anyone was thinking of last year. My logic was "He puts up numbers like a wide receiver, and his stats blow the next best tight end out of the water." Gonzalez is so much better than most tight ends that he's worth reaching for. That equation has been changed somewhat with the emergence of Shockey and Heap last year though. Now it's 3 tight ends and "the rest of the guys," when it had previously been Gonzalez and "the rest."

Better make that 4. Rookie TE McMichael was fantastic the first part of last season (better than Shockey?) but was not ready for a 16 game schedule.

[Travis]

More than 4 now for TE's. Maybe not as much this season, but with all the young stars coming along (Crumpler, Heap, McMichael, Franks, Stevens, Becht and Joppru in addition to guys like Tony, Shockey, Sharpe... TE isn't quite the one man gang it used to be.

[sachmo71]

There are always 2-5 top tight ends. Then a cavernous dropoff. Which is why I like to eliminate the tight end, or at least make it an optional position where another position can be substituted.

[SteelerFan448]

It think Holmes now is geared to have a big season to prove people wrong. People think the guy is hurt, he has a first round draft pick ready to take over for him, he is going to be playing harder than ever this season.