OT - Breeders Cup Future Wagering

[QuikSand]

Just incase there's still anyone out there following the thoroughbred world these days, here's the field for the forst window of Breeders Cup Classic future betting - for this weekend. A future bet means you get your odds locked in now, based on what people actually wager now, and they won't change between now and the race. Downside - if your horse gets hurt or doesn't enter the race, you're out of luck. Upside - if you horse gains form and does enter the race, you probably get much better odds here than you will on race day.

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(This is cliped from BRISnet's daily newsletter)

Breeders' Cup Future Bet odds set

The National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) has set the fields for this weekend's Period 1 of the Breeders' Cup Future Bet. MEDAGLIA D'ORO (El Prado [Ire]), second last year in the Classic (G1), has been installed as the 5-1 favorite.

Wagering opens up Friday at 1 p.m. (EDT) and closes at 9 p.m. on Sunday. The second period is August 29-September 1, and the third and final one takes place September 19-21.

CLASSIC (Race 1)

# HORSE ODDS
1 Azeri 15-1
2 Congaree 12-1
3 Dollar Bill 50-1
4 Empire Maker 8-1
5 Evening Attire 30-1
6 Eye of the Tiger 50-1
7 Funny Cide 15-1
8 Harlan's Holiday 30-1
9 Iron Deputy 50-1
10 Kudos 50-1
11 Medaglia d'Oro 5-1
12 Milwaukee Brew 15-1
13 Mineshaft 6-1
14 Moon Ballad 20-1
15 Peace Rules 30-1
16 Perfect Drift 15-1
17 Saarland 30-1
18 Sky Mesa 30-1
19 Soto 30-1
20 Ten Most Wanted 30-1
21 Volponi 20-1
22 Wando 30-1
23 Wild and Wicked 50-1
24 Field 15-1

All are nominated

[QuikSand]

While MEDAGLIA D'ORO isa very tough customer, it's tough to get past the current form of MINESHAFT, who (with one exception) has looked vary tough this year. There are a number of familiar faces from the last few years' Triple Crown events, plus lastyear's longshot winner ofthe Classic, VOLPONI.

I have been, and remain a sucker for DOLLAR BILL, and his move to Bobby frankel's barn only gives me hope to keep dreaming. I will probably make at least a token bet on him -- even though it's pretty unlikely that he will actually go off in teh Classic at odds lower than the 50-1 listed here. If he goes up... it's certainly possible that we'd get 100-1 or more, then I might consider more than a token wager.

[Fritz]

Quiksand - how volitile are horse odds?

[QuikSand]

Horse odds in future betting (a fairly new phenomenon to the actual racetracks) are very volatile, but in this case I expect that the odds will settle down after a day or so of open wagering. With this bet open all weekend, we ought to have a pretty fair idea after Friday and Saturday where the odds are actually going to stand. (And at that point, the "morning line" odds posted above are completely meaningless)

They have been doing futures like this with the Kentucky Derby for a few years, but the problem there has been they ran the betting on weekeneds where there were one or more prep races - so some horses in the field had a chance to drastically increase (or lower) their chances during the wagering window. As a result, we frequently saw aomething like 80-90% of all wagers come in during the closing hours- meaning that the early odds were totally unreliable. I think we'll see less of that here.


In general, though, horse odds are notoriously volatile. On a regular racing day, nearly all of the betting happens within about 30 minutes' time - and since odds are purely a function of the bet distrubution, it's not uncommon to see rapid rises and falls in the minutes leading up to the race itself. The smaller the handle, the more pronounced this can be. For the Kentucky Derby, with many millions in the betting pools, it takes an awful lot to "move the board." But playing at Colonial Downs on a Wednesday, where there's only $8,000 in the win pool - some guy walks up and puts down $2,000 on his horse and suddenly his odds drop from 12-1 to 3-1, all in one click on the toteboard. It happens.

[Franklinnoble]

I'd put my money on Congaree.

[FishFan]

Congaree can't go 1 1/4. :)

Any thoughts on tomorrow's races?

[Glengoyne]

I started a thread to discuss my wagers in the Dynasty section, but only got through the first couple of races before damn work reared it's ugly head. I have barely looked at my racing form since Sunday Evening.

I concur that Congaree doen't look good at 1 and a quarter.

I leave for Santa Anita within the hour.

[FishFan]

Good luck.

Take Dynever in the Classic. You won't be disappointed.

[The Afoci]

Ten Most Wanted to win baby!

[Honolulu Blue]

I'm glad this thread was bumped back up. It saves me the trouble of having to find it.

For the fun of it, I made a bunch of bets in the second futures period (around Labor Day) on horses I thought would show up today and have a good shot at winning.

These are the ones that are still active and the odds I got for them:

Distaff - ELLOLUV (25-1), SIGHTSEEK (5-1), TAKE CHARGE LADY (15-1)
Sprint - CAPTAIN SQUIRE (14-1), MIDAS EYES (13-1), SHAKE YOU DOWN (15-1)
Turf - HIGH CHAPPARAL (6-1)
Classic - CONGAREE (12-1), FUNNY CIDE (25-1), MEDAGLIA D'ORO (11-1), PERFECT DRIFT (25-1), VOLPONI (30-1)

SIGHTSEEK was my biggest bet among these, which looks almost prescient now (thank you AZERI). I wish I'd put more on PERFECT DRIFT (thank you CANDY RIDE, EMPIRE MAKER, and MINESHAFT).

Anyhoo, I made those bets 8 weeks ago and my interest in some of them has cooled. For entertainment purposes, let me take a detailed look at the Distaff and Classic races, and some random picks in the other BC races:

DISTAFF:

The favorite is almost sure to be SIGHTSEEK and deservedly so. Worth a win bet at 5-2 or better (good luck). Giant killer GOT KOKO deserves consideration for her record and the fact that she figures to be the only one rallying late. Will it be enough? Don't think so, but she could surprise. A safe bet at 6-1 or better (again, good luck).

The longshot special here is ADORATION. Love the jockey, like the trainer, and the horse is good enough to possibly steal this. Don't bet the retirement fund on it, but at 15-1 she's playable.

My other bets for this race haven't been fully formed yet, but I might do exactas with GOT KOKO on top of SIGHTSEEK, ELLOLUV, and TAKE CHARGE LADY; with an exacta box or quinella with GK and ADORATION.

CLASSIC:

The one everyone will be waiting for. A contentious race with three standouts and several other contenders.

Looking best from here is MEDAGLIA D'ORO, the win/place machine. Go with a win bet at 9-2 or better. Second is CONGAREE. Of course he can go 1 1/4 miles; the question is will his performance be enough. At 6-1, he'd be a risk worth taking. Last, but not least, is PERFECT DRIFT. Lots of wins this year but is going to need something a little better than his best to take top honors. Forget about the win bet; I'd need 9-1 to take him and that's never going to happen.

If either FUNNY CIDE or TEN MOST WANTED return to their best form they can take this. Don't bet on it happening, though I like TMW's chances a little better. Either are bettable at 20-1 or better.

THE OTHER RACES:

Juvenile Filly - HOLLYWOOD STORY, ASHADO, SOCIETY SELECTION
Mile - DESIGNED FOR LUCK
Sprint - SHAKE YOU DOWN, CAPTAIN SQUIRE
Filly & Mare Turf - TATES CREEK, ISLINGTON, BIEN NICOLE
Juvenile - CHAPEL ROYAL, RELAXED GESTURE, CUVEE
Turf - HIGH CHAPPARAL, JOHAR

[QuikSand]

Good day yesterday all told... every single person in my group came away ahead for the entire day, which was nice. We even wrapped up the day in grand fashion when our running "group show bet" (each person throws in a dollar... one person bets it all to show... if it wins, we let it ride on the next race with a new person making the bet...if it loses, we chip in another buck each) went toward a $38 wager on some weirdo outsider named "Pleasantly Perfect." So, we had our entire day's meals and beverages paid for by that.

Our group of four went in on a trifecta bet early in the day, and nailed the juvenile fillies race. Unfortunately HALFBRIDLED was on top, depressing the payout, but we still cashed soemthing around $340. We had used CAJUN BEAT In the sprint on our pick six ticket, and two people used him in that race for a good payout. A friend and I both liked ACTION THIS DAY in the Juvenile, and he rolled (very impressively, I'd add) to a nice payoff for both of us. So - not a bad day, really.

I feel a little silly having this good a day, since I really spent only about an hour handicapping on the morning of the races (usually I study the PP data for at least 2-3 hours the night before, and then look again in the morning) and then a litle time between races. Mostly good luck, but on my short list of value plays, we ended up with several hitters.

[QuikSand]

Biggest disappointment of the day, though, was our "group bet" on the juvenile fillies. We liked four horses, and decided to go for the trifecta, boxing all four - a $24 wager.

We hit the tri for $343, which was very nice. But our "other" horse finished in fourth place... and the superfecta (which would have cost us the same amount) would have paid right about $3,000.

Heh.

[Vegas Vic]

Quik,

I'm a complete novice on horse racing. From your experience, do you think that there are many people who make a long-term profit wagering on the horses? One thing that I've noticed here in Las Vegas is that the Race Books always tend to be crowded at the first of the month (when the retirees get their Social Security checks), but it thins out considerably at the end of the month.

Without actually knowing for sure, I'd guess that you're in the black with your knowledge and insight on the subject. If not, I'd say it's highly unlikely that anyone could be a long-term winner.

What's your opinion on this?

[QuikSand]

Well, Vic - since you are wise in the ways of house edge and so forth - you are probably suitably impressed by the fact that the typical house removal (which varies by state) in thoroughbred racing is between 15 and 20 per cent. Compared to most games, that's downright staggering.

Back some years ago (before the information revolution in racing, which took place in the 1990s) there were a fair number of people who invested considerable time and effort into tracking races and computing speed figures (before they were commonly available). Those people made money, for certain -- they had huge information edge over their opposition, which is what counts. Most of that is gone now - there are countless sources fo detailed and comprehensive information about each and every runnner - the information edge is very, very hard to get now.

I think that the share of racign bettors who actually maintain a long term profit is extraordinarily small -- certainly fewer than 1 or 2 per cent of all those who engage in the sport. I would say that it is FAR harder to stay ahead in racing than, say, in poker. FAR harder.

The *only* way to stay ahead in this game is to be very selective, and only to invest significantly when you perceive a fundamental flaw in the betting. It's a bit like blackjack... you watch the card count, and when the shoe reaches a certain edge toward the bettor, you want to step up your betting. Much the same here-- the savvy bettor has to sit through an entire day of racing, probably making small bets to keep from passing out from boredom, just to "lock in" when he thinks there's a real value available, and then make a real bet. I think those are the winning bettors in the long haul - but that takes both rare skill and rare patience.

I'm really not a big bettor - even when I was fairly "into" racing I've alwasy had a day job, meaning that the majority of racing action took place when I was earning my living. (A paradox that doesn't seem to disturb the racing industry at all... revealing a lot about their priorities -- I'd think that I would be exactly the kind of patron that most businesses would *kill* to gain, but for them, I seem to be a distant afterthought) So, if I get to the track more than ten times a year, it's a pretty busy year for me. I'm not a heavy gambler at all - I hit a few big events, and an occasional foray when the mood strikes. (I'm also not an "action junkie" which connects directly to the previous missive)

Point is, over a fairly modest amount of betting, I've been lucky enough to be ahead at the end of five out of the last six calendar years, and in the aggregate. (My results are very skewed in the aggregate by one big hit, so I think the year-to-year thing is the best indicator) I have been pretty effective in hitting on the undercard of high-profile races -- these are days when the non-betting public comes out in force, and they focus more on the big time races, not the lesser events on the saye day. I generally find good value those days, and often come away empty-handed from the premeire event (Derby, BC CLassic, whatever) but enriched by some measley undercard race two hours before.


Short answer: long term profit - not many anymore. It's a loser's game nowadays, for the overwhelming share of those who play it.

Even the people who study hard and do their homework and are smart - it's still damned tough to finish out ahead. Since I'm becoming less and less enamored with that level of work and effort, it's rather unlikely that I'll continue to be a plus player at the track in the future.

[Glengoyne]

I just got back from Santa Anita this evening. In the end the wife and I ended up netting about $20 on the trip. If you count the $150 we spent on the tickets, we ended up small losers.

I hit a hell of a lot of show bets, and a few winners. I was typically betting one horse to win, and two to show. Adoration was quite the surprise, in that I bet her to show just in case she was able to hold onto some of the early lead I figured her for. She did screw up my exacta bet for certain, as my pair finished two-three. My friend hit a nice exacta with Cajun beat and a "blues" horse. It was one of those he threw in at the counter as an extra. "Cajun and Blues. How can I miss, I think he said." That was the biggest hit we had all day long, about a $400 payoff. Pleasantly perfect was my little secret, but I only bet him to show. My crushing defeat of the day was my Falbrav - High Chaparal exacta that got nipped at the wire. A dead heat that one of them, I can't remember which, shared with Johar(An entry I had completely dismissed). I had never seen a dead heat before, and it was excruciating as they sorted it out.

Basically I made up enough on the win and show bets that came in to offset most of our action, as well as our meals for the day. It was really a blast, but I don't think I am going to go out of our way to attend another breeder's cup. The lines at the betting windows were out of control. Santa Anita didn't have all the windows staffed. I am told they figured that the automated stations would alleviate the lines by quite a bit. They hadn't figured on it being 90 plus degrees that day. Inside it was too hot for the touch screens to accurately accept input. The lines were brutal, the heat was unbearable, and I didn't hit an exacta all day.

Some of the folks around us were lucky, a lady just a few rows behind us won six grand on a $4 trifecta bet. On our way out we were witness to a moving cheer. This group of about ten or twelve people were shouting/cheering/singing all the way to the gates. My friend who was directly behind them was told one of them had hit for a hundred grand. I am guessing they partied long into the night.

[Honolulu Blue]

A quick report for those who care: I did have a win bet on ADORATION, and hitting a 40-1 shot makes up for a lot of sins.

Actually I didn't bet that much, less than I thought I would - a few doubles and exactas, a pick 3, and one ill-advised tri in the Classic. I found the races too contentious for my liking and I usually found the best bet was to keep my money in my pockets.

Too bad I didn't do better on the futures bets - thank you HIGH CHAPPARAL - but two came from the field and the other was a 50-1 shot. Not sure if I'll try that again next year.

[FishFan]

The only thing that saved my day was a large win bet on SIX PERFECTIONS in the Mile. When I saw PEACE RULES at 3-1 in early betting, I was hoping for 10-1 on SIX PERFECTIONS, but she only paid $12.60.

If the two juvenile races were any indication of the top level talent (not sure if that was the case in the male race) among 3yo horses, then we might see a couple of fillies entered in the Kentucky Derby next year.

[Glengoyne]

I had Six perfections as well. I was pretty apprehensive when the jockey had to bail as they approached the gate. All the fighting trying to get her in. I was saying "OK with a scratch I get my money back, late scratch, late scratch." Then they got her in the gate. I couldn't find her in the pack on either the back stretch or as they moved past us. I had actually written her off when I heard someone say, I think "thirteen" took it. And they were right.

Some of my friends say it is good luck when a horse struggles getting into the gate. This was the first time I had seen it actually come through that way with a horse I had money on.

[QuikSand]

I used SIX PERFECTIONS in a trifecta bet, and actually wrote down that I was going to back up the trifecta with an exacta on the same three horses. At the machine, for some reason, I decided against making the exacta bet - and of course it came in. (This is very unusual for me - I usually write down my bets and enter them in with mindless rote action -- I VERY rarely adjust my bets at the window, it's just a pet peeve of mine when people get to the fromt of the line and then start thinking about their bets)

I had used SIX PERFECTIONS, TOUCH OF THE BLUES, and DESIGNED FOR LUCK in my bet. Alas, the "strong" entry of the three was the one to finish up the track, and the exacta that I decided wasn't worth $12 to bet would have paid $153.60. Not the end of the world, but frustrating. Coming right after a just-missed superfecta (losing again because we didn't bet it) it was a bite-your-tongue moment for me.

[Bee]

Originally posted by QuikSand
I used SIX PERFECTIONS in a trifecta bet, and actually wrote down that I was going to back up the trifecta with an exacta on the same three horses. At the machine, for some reason, I decided against making the exacta bet - and of course it came in. (This is very unusual for me - I usually write down my bets and enter them in with mindless rote action -- I VERY rarely adjust my bets at the window, it's just a pet peeve of mine when people get to the fromt of the line and then start thinking about their bets)

I had used SIX PERFECTIONS, TOUCH OF THE BLUES, and DESIGNED FOR LUCK in my bet. Alas, the "strong" entry of the three was the one to finish up the track, and the exacta that I decided wasn't worth $12 to bet would have paid $153.60. Not the end of the world, but frustrating. Coming right after a just-missed superfecta (losing again because we didn't bet it) it was a bite-your-tongue moment for me.

I was going to make a comment about the fish that got away, but I don't want to piss you off when you are still working on the beta diary for FOF. ;)

[QuikSand]

Just for that non-comment comment, you get no diary entry tonight.

[Bee]

Originally posted by QuikSand
Just for that non-comment comment, you get no entry tonight.

crap. :(

[Glengoyne]

Originally posted by QuikSand
I used SIX PERFECTIONS in a trifecta bet

My friend had also selected Six Perfections for a win bet, but he had cracked wise about not betting on any French Horses today. I pointed out the Six Perfections was a French horse, and apparently shamed him into not betting it. He punched me when I declared that my win bet came in.