interesting explanation of how experience increases, from HT-Jonas

[FrogMan]

There was a very interesting thread in the HAM conference, regarding the randomness encountered with experience increase.

It was from a guy who had read a response from HT-Jonas on the Sverige conference in a thread that was getting out of track regarding the experience increases... Here are two posts from HT-Jonas...

post #1 in Swedish
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Kanske dags att kommentera lite.

Tommy_las sannolikhetsteoriformel (puh) ligger väldigt nära verkligheten. Sett över lång tid ska saker och ting ha jämnat ut sig, men efter diverse exempel på statistisk otur har vi nu ändrat så att sannolikheten för uppdatering är större, men med mindre steg i taget. Spelare som skulle ha uppdaterats ändå (mål, skador, kort) får alltid korrekt uppdatering med det statistiska medelvärdet.

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/HT-Jonas
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post #2 in Swedish
Eh, just det. Ponera att standardvärdet är 1. Får han en skada (osv) ökas rutinen med 1. För alla andra kan då chansen vara 1/3 att öka med 3 i rutin.


and here are the translations from somebody else on the conference. I don't read or speak Swedish, so I have to take it that this translation is good.

post #1 in English
tommy_las probability theory is pretty close to reality.
Seen over a longer period of time, things should even out, but after various examples of statistical bad luck, we have increased the probability for en update and decreased the gain.
Players who are updated anyway (goals, injuries, cards) always get a correct update with the statistical mean.


and

post #2 in English
Exactly. Suppose the standard value is 1. If he gets injured (etc) his experience is increased by 1. All other players have a 1/3 probability of gaining 3 exp.


It was later clarified that the 3 and 1/3 were only examples of numbers that could be used. It could also be 4 and 1/4, but you get the idea. What's important to understand here is that it could explain why sometimes you have players that pop experience level a few times over a short period of time. If they happened to be in the 1/3 more often than other players, or if he constantly score goals or get yellow cards (meaning he gets in the update), then he gets his 1 point for his game, and then the one week where he isn't in the update, then maybe he gets lucky and is in the 1/3 of players who gets 3 points of experience.

In the long run, it would all even out. Every player has 33% of chance to get experience, and when he gets it, he gets three points (if these are the real value, which we're not sure), so 33% times three equals one...

I just thought it was interesting and it kind of gives us some explanation as to why some players take a really long time before popping experience levels. This may be even more true for keepers who don't often score goals or get cards, if they are not lucky enough to be in the 1/3 who gets the experience points, they may take a few seasons to go up in experience...

Any comments on this?

FM

[The Afoci]

I pick the green one.

[The Afoci]

It seems pretty complex for something that should be easy.

[damnMikeBrown]

Evil

[lytic]

So Keepers have a big disadvantage...
I wonder how Cup/ Quals/ Friendlies / Int-Friendlies / Nats team games work in comparison.

[damnMikeBrown]

I don't think so lytic. If the above is all true, then nobody really gets shafted.

Keepers, at least mine, get mentioned frequently. That would give them the 1 value in every game they're mentioned. If they're not mentioned, they'd have a 33% chance to get the 3 value. Either way, over time, they'd come out the same, IF the above is a true representation of the system.

If anything, positions that are mentioned frequently such as Keeper & High scoring forwards, would gain steadly & more predictably than other players.

[FrogMan]

Originally posted by damnMikeBrown
I don't think so lytic. If the above is all true, then nobody really gets shafted.

Keepers, at least mine, get mentioned frequently. That would give them the 1 value in every game they're mentioned. If they're not mentioned, they'd have a 33% chance to get the 3 value. Either way, over time, they'd come out the same, IF the above is a true representation of the system.

If anything, positions that are mentioned frequently such as Keeper & High scoring forwards, would gain steadly & more predictably than other players.

I'm not sure the player only has to be mentionned in the game report, I would think he has to have some update to be done to his player file, like a goal, a card, an injury, etc. A goalie stopping a goal won't give him any update in his player file. Because of that I'd think that keepers would have only the random updates to help them gain experience...

FM

[DukeRulesMAB]

If what he's saying is true, keepers shouldn't be "screwed", but they should be more unpredictable than, for example, a forward.

By that, I mean it's just as likely that a keeper gets more experience points than they should over time as it is that they'll get less. While a forward who scores often is gonna be pretty much 1/3 (or whatever) per game like clockwork.