Chief Rum's Statistical Prediction Of The 2003 College Football Season, Take Two

[Chief Rum]

All right, after looking my worksheet over and turning things over in my mind for a good while, I decided that the errors I found were enough to warrant starting off fresh. I have re-run Week 1 and will have it posted up shortly.

I fixed Colorado so that they would have the same amount of starters. I also took out Clarrett for Ohio State and will leave him out until Game 7 (since a six-game suspension, for whatever reason, seems to be the most often thrown out likely suspension). And, of course, I have corrected the major error I found in my worksheet, which, to my surprise, caused more change for some teams' potential production than I had thought.

Still, all in all, I think you will find that most of the results in this week are pretty consistent with the first sim.

Chief Rum

[Chief Rum]

Thank you to the voters who helped provide me with a Preseason Top 25. This will be the Top 25 through the first six weeks, when I will ask for a new Top 25.

Here they are:

<font face=courier>

Rk College Points (#1 Votes)

1. Oklahoma 262 (2)
2. Miami 259 (3)
3. Ohio State 258 (5)
4. Texas 222
5t.Kansas State 214
5t.Auburn 214 (1)
7. Virginia Tech 203
8. USC 190
9. Georgia 179
10. Pittsburgh 157
11. Michigan 153
12. NC State 141
13. LSU 131
14. Tennessee 129
15. Maryland 125
16. Wisconsin 93
17. Florida State 92
18. Virginia 78
19. Notre Dame 76
20. Florida 62
21. Washington 53
22. Alabama 41
23. Purdue 34
24. Oregon State 32
25t.Texas A&M 17
25t.UCLA 17

Washington State 12, Fresno State 10, Iowa 10, Missouri 10,
Nebraska 10, Colorado 8, Penn State 8, Arizona State 7,
Oklahoma State 6, Hawaii 5, Colorado State 3, Minnesota 3,
Arkansas 2, Clemson 2, Illinois 2, Kentucky 2, South Carolina 2,
BYU 1

</font>

Ohio State got a lot of respect for returning as many starters as it does and for the championship, and this is reflected in its poll-high five first place votes (the majority of the voters), but when it wasn't there it really took a hit, putting it just a touch lower than new #1 Oklahoma and Miami.

Texas just beat out Big Twelve foe kansas State and Auburn, the lowest ranked team with a #1 vote, for the fourth spot. Auburn and Kansas State are tied for fifth.

Virginia Tech, Southern Cal, Georgia and Pitt round out the preseason Top 10.

The Southeastern Conference led the way with six teams, although the highest was Auburn at #5.

The Big Twelve was much more top heavy, with three teams in the top five. Altogether, though, the conference had just four teams in the poll, with Texas A&M sneaking into the back with a tie.

The Big East was the least of the BCS conferences, with three teams, but all three made the Top Ten. By comparison, the Pac-10 had four teams, but three of them were ranked 20th and below, and the ACC's four teams all failed to break the Top Ten. The Big Ten also had four teams.

Notre Dame was the only non-conference member of the poll, and as an official member of the BCS, makes the poll a complete BCS sweep.

There are actually 26 teams in this poll, thnaks to a poll-ending tie between Texas A&M and UCLA.

Chief Rum

[Chief Rum]

Here's the first week's schedule again, with Top 25 listings.

August 23

California at #5 Kansas State (at Kansas City)
Grambling (I-AA) at San Jose State

August 28

Utah State at Utah
Kent State at Akron
Eastern Kentucky (I-AA) at Bowling Green
Florida Atlantic (I-AA) at Middle Tennessee State
SE Missouri State (I-AA) at Ohio
East Tennessee State (I-AA) at Eastern Michigan

August 30

#8 USC at #5 Auburn
#21 Washington at #3 Ohio State
Colorado State vs Colorado (at Denver)
#9 Georgia at Clemson

#16 Wisconsin at West Virginia
Fresno State at #14 Tennessee
Oklahoma State at Nebraska
Missouri vs Illinois (at St. Louis)

South Florida at #22 Alabama (at Birmingham)
#15 Maryland at Northern Illinois
North Texas at #1 Oklahoma
Wake Forest at Boston College

Toledo at UNLV
Southern Miss at California
Georgia Tech at BYU
#17 Florida State at North Carolina

New Mexico State at #4 Texas
Oregon at Mississippi State
Duke at #18 Virginia
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt

Miami (OH) at Iowa
#2 Miami at Louisiana Tech
San Jose State at #20 Florida
Troy State at #5 Kansas State

Western Michigan at Michigan State
Central Michigan at #11 Michigan
UL-Monroe at #13 LSU
Arkansas State at #25 Texas A&M

Temple at Penn State
Tulsa at Minnesota
SMU at Texas Tech
Idaho at Washington State

UL-Lafayette at South Carolina
UAB at Baylor
Indiana at UConn
Northwestern at Kansas

UTEP at Arizona
Buffalo at Rutgers
Rice at Houston
Western Carolina (I-AA) at #12 North Carolina State

Sacramento State (I-AA) at #24 Oregon State
Idaho State (I-AA) at Boise State
Northern Iowa (I-AA) at Iowa State
Wofford (I-AA) at Air Force

Appalachian State (I-AA) at Hawaii
Tennessee Tech (I-AA) at Memphis
Hofstra (I-AA) at Marshall
Montana State (I-AA) at Wyoming

Eastern Washington (I-AA) at San Diego State
Southern Utah (I-AA) at Nevada
VMI (I-AA) at Navy
Indiana State (I-AA) at Ball State

August 31

UCF at #7 Virginia Tech
Louisville at Kentucky

September 1

TCU at Tulane
East Carolina at Cincinnati

Chief Rum

[Chief Rum]

Week One Results

WEEK ONE: August 23, September 1

AUGUST 23

Top 25 Games

Kansas State 48, California 10 The Jayhawks opened the college football season by blitzing the Bears of Cal-Berkeley. The two-pronged ground attack of running back Darren Sproles (198 yards) and quarterback Ell Roberson (115 yards) was dominating as the home team put up almost 400 yards rushing and 615 yards of total offense. Roberson also passed for 170 yards before sitting out the fourth quarter. Kansas State's defense was dominant, holding the Bears to just 231 yards of total offense.

All Scores

#5 Kansas State 48, California 10 (at Kansas City)
San Jose State 60, Grambling (I-AA) 17

AUGUST 28

Top Games

BYU 42, Georgia Tech 13
Utah 44, Utah State 12
Akron 41, Kent State 20

Other Scores

Bowling Green 69, Eastern Kentucky (I-AA) 10
Middle Tennessee State 58, Florida Atlantic (I-AA) 14
Ohio 50, SE Missouri State (I-AA) 3
Eastern Michigan 35. East Tennessee State (I-AA) 8

AUGUST 30

Top 25 Matchups

Ohio State 31, Washington 26 In the absence of suspended star running back Maurice Clarrett and any hint of a running game on behalf of the Huskies, quarterbacks Craig Krenzel for Ohio State and Cody Pickett for Washington put on an aerial display, throwing for 587 yards between them. Krenzel connected with WR Chris Gamble for his second TD of the day--a 25-yard strike--in the dwindling minutes of the game to give the Buckeyes the final lead. Pickett threw for 324 yards and four touchdowns, including two to star receiver Reggie Williams, but a couple failed two-point conversions and a luck of a running game (just 47 yards ont he ground) doomed the Huskies to fall short. RB Lydell Ross isn't going to make anyone in Columbus forget Clarrett, but he ran for a competent 97 yards as the star's replacement.

Auburn 24, USC 19 Auburn got off to a fast start and held on to take a critical game against fellow Top Ten team USC. The game was largely marked by dominant defenses. The two teams combined for just over 600 yards of total offense, and were uncannily similar to each other in results. USC did a commendable job on the Tigers' powerful ground game, limiting Cadillac Williams to just 56 yards and the team to just 112 for the game. But they had no answer for QB Jason Campbell, who threw for 204 yards and two scores while the Trojans were keying on the run. USC QB Matt Leinart tried to match Campbell, finishing with 189 yards and a touchdown himself, but it was a key Leinart interception by Auburn CB Carlos Rogers on the final drive that sealed the fate of USC.

Top 25 Upsets

West Virginia 26, Wisconsin 19 Wisconsin came in with a diminating ground game, but in the end it was the balanced attack of the home Mountaineers that proved to be the key. The teams were close in yardage (342 yards for West Virginia to 339 for the Badgers), but the Mountaineers had 169 yards on the gorund and 179 on the air to pull it out in the end. RB Quincy Wilson had 110 yards and Rasheed Marshall had two touchdowns, including the go-ahead score on a 32-yard slant to WR Tory Johnson early in the fourth quarter. The Mountaineers survived a couple of protracted drives by the Badgers late int he game before holding on. Baders' running back Anthony Davis was the star of the day in a losing cause, gaining 184 yards rushing.

San Jose State 41, Florida 21 My, how the Gators have fallen. Coach Ron Zook's second year as Florida head coach gets off to an awful start when the heretofore unheralded San Jose State Spartans spanked them. The Gators actually outgained the Spartans, 443 to 409, but three turnovers, including two picks by new QB Ingle Martin, were too hard to overcome. Martin did throw for 319 yards and two touchdowns. Scott Rislov, one of the more underrated passers in the country, had 257 yards and four touchdowns, and RB Tyson Thompson had 87 yards to pace the ground attack. The Spartans are now 2-0, coming off of an easy victory over Division I-AA Grambling last week.

South Florida 34, Alabama 30 (OT) The Bulls thought they had a chance against the troubled but talented Crimson Tide program. It took overtime to pull it out, though. Despite the Tide outgaining the Bulls, 394-305, South Florida managed to tie it up at 27 with a 43-yard field goal by Santiago Gramatica in the final seconds of regulation. In overtime, 'Bama scored first with a field goal, but then Bulls' QB Ronnie Banks used a nice fake to free up receiver Chris Iskra, whom he found in the corner for a 15-yard strike to end the game. Banks had 254 yards passing on the day, as the Tide defense was very stingy on the ground (51 yards rushing by South Florida). The Alabama offense was strong, led by RB Shaud Williams (137 yards rushing) and QB Brodie Croyle (209 yards passing), but they kept falling short at critical times.

Duke 32, Virginia 23 Blue Devils' fans might declare this the Chris Pearson Coming Out Day. The Duke running back took advantage of a Cavalier's defense that was breaking in several new starters, including a true freshman, and ran for 165 yards. He and QB Adam Smith (236 yards passing) provided the offense in a shocking defeat of one of the ACC's preseason favorites in Virginia. QB Matt Schaub threw for only 213 yards against a surprisingly tough Duke defense, and the running game was limited to just 84 total yards.

Arkansas State 24, Texas A&M 12 The Aggies were stunned by the lowly Sun Belt Indians, thanks to an anemic offense that was too intent on giving up the ball to the opponent. A stout run defense by Arkansas State (just 96 yards total rushing yards allowed) led to Texas A&M QB Dustin long having to force it too often, resulting in two picks, including a return score by CB Jonathon Burke. The Aggies also fumbled the ball once and put up just 261 yards of total offense. The Indians' offense wasn't particularly effective either (283 yards total offense), but they limited their mistakes (just one lost fumble and no interceptions) and they had a decent ground game (137 yards) to control the tempo.

Other Quality Top 25 Games

Oklahoma 29, North Texas 0 The Sooners' defense might be the best the country has seen in some time, with several preseason acknowledgements being handed out to several of the team's starters. They certainly did nothing to detract from that in this one. They held the Sun Belt-best Mean Green to just 126 yards of total offense and forced three turnovers. The Sooners' offense wasn't particularly effective itself (243 yards total offense), but it didn't need to be. QB Jason White had 159 yards passing and two scores.

Miami 43, Louisiana Tech 16 The Canes started this season like they are on a mission to right the wrong they felt they let go by losing to Ohio State in the title game last season. Miami put up an astounding 554 yards of offense against a decent Tech defense on the road. RB Frank Gore ran for 148 yards and new QB Brock Berlin had 270 yards and three touchdowns to lead the way. They were both sitting by the fourth quarter of this one. The defense held the Bulldogs to just 283 yards of total offense.

Texas 39, New Mexico State 27 QB Chance Mock quickly led waste to the Horns fans' memories of Chris Simms by blitzing the Aggies with 349 yards and three touchdowns. Favorite target Roy Williams caught 12 passes for 189 yards and two of the scores, as Texas piled up 475 yards of offense. The defense had unusual problems with New Mixico State's triple option game, giving up 185 rushing yards and a surprising 165 yards to the air game, all of which as courtesy of underrated option quarterback Paul Dombrowski. Still, the pacey Horns weren't really threatened in the second half of the game, despute the final score.

Georgia 37, Clemson 22 Both teams exhibited some very tough run defenses, but fortunately for the Dawgs, they have QB id Greene available to take over when that happens. Greene threw for 267 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Georgia attack, which lost much of its offensive personnel to graduation this past offseason. Tigers' QB Charlie Whitehurst had 201 yards and a score himself, but he also threw a key interception and lost a fumble, Clemson's only two miscues of the day.

Florida State 46, North Carolina 18 The Seminoles rolled up on offense in this one like the days of old. QB Chris Rix threw for 220 yards and two touchdowns, and RB Greg Jones had 215 yards and three touchdowns himself in a dominating performance. The defense limited the Tar Heels to just 295yards of total offense, while the Seminoles piled up 522 yards of offense of their own.

Tennessee 33, Fresno State 23 The Vols used a balanced offense to hold off non-BCS power Fresno State at home. They gained 410 yards of total offense, as QB Casey Claussen led the attack with 244 yards in the air. The Bulldogs' Paul Pinegar (205 yards passing) and Rodney Davis (113 yards rushing) tried to keep pace with the Vols, but Tennessee was just too strong.

Maryland 26, Northern Illinois Behind the effective passing of Scott McBrien (234 yards passing and the game-winning touchdown) and a very good defense of the Huskies' option attack (just 124 yards rushing), the Terps managed to escape with a tough road win against one of the MAC's best teams. The defense limited Northern Illinois to just 238 yards of total offense. McBrien's fourth quarter 15-yard scoring toss to TE Jeff Dugan proved to be the difference maker when the Huskies got the score close with a late score.

All Top 25 Scores

#3 Ohio State 31, #21 Washington 26
#5 Auburn 24, #8 USC 19
#1 Oklahoma 29, North Texas 0
#2 Miami 43, Louisiana Tech 16

#4 Texas 39, New Mexico State 27
#5 Kansas State 50, Troy State 3
#9 Georgia 35, Clemson 16
#11 Michigan 46, Central Michigan 15

#12 North Carolina State 56, Western Carolina (I-AA) 0
#13 LSU 31, UL-Monroe 15
#14 Tennessee 33, Fresno State 23
#15 Maryland 26, Northern Illinois 22

West Virginia 26, #16 Wisconsin 19
#17 Florida State 43, North Carolina 19
Duke 32, #18 Virginia 23
San Jose State 41, #20 Florida 21

South Florida 34, #22 Alabama 30 (OT) (at Birmingham)
#24 Oregon State 67, Sacramento State (I-AA) 0
Arkansas State 24, [/i]#25 Texas A&M 12[/i]

Key Non-Top 25 Games

Colorado State 32, Colorado 15 (at Denver)
Nebraska 30, Oklahoma State 25
Missouri 43, Illinois 27 (at St. Louis)
Wake Forest 24, Boston College 21

Southern Miss 31, California 27 (OT)
Oregon 33, Mississippi State 17
Iowa 43, Miami (OH) 36 (2OT)
Toledo 39, UNLV 15

Rest Of The Scores

Mississippi 42, Vanderbilt 12
Western Michigan 38, Michigan State 15
Penn State 36, Temple 10
Minnesota 43, Tulsa 24

Texas Tech 43, Southern Methodist 27
Washington State 29, Idaho 16
South Carolina 35, UL-Lafayette 9
UAB 27, Baylor 26

UConn 45, Indiana 9
Northwestern 37, Kansas 31
UTEP 35, Arizona 20
Buffalo 29, Rutgers 12

Houston 38, Rice 21
Iowa State 56, Northern Iowa (I-AA) 17
Air Force 62, Wofford (I-AA) 3
Hawaii 73, Appalachian State (I-AA) 7

Memphis 45, Tennessee tech (I-AA) 7
Marshall 53, Hofstra (I-AA) 10
Wyoming 64, Montana State (I-AA) 10
San Diego State 62, Eastern Washington (I-AA) 7

Nevada 41, Southern Utah (I-AA) 0
Navy 61, VMI (I-AA) 7
Ball State 51, Indiana State (I-AA) 7

AUGUST 31

#7 Virginia Tech 25, Central Florida 21
Kentucky 32, Louisville 22

SEPTEMBER 1

Cincinnati 40, East Carolina 33
Tulane 30, Texas Christian 21

Sorry I wasn't able to do more recaps this week. Week two will hopefully be up Saturday night.

CR

[QuikSand]

I confess this is the first I've seen of your sim, but it looks interesting.

One question - each and every game against a I-AA opponent seems to have yielded a very lopsided score -- even when the I-A team is pretty weak. Is this historically pretty accurate? Just jumps off the screen at me - (f'rinstance) seeing Navy winning by 61-7 over anyone except the Sisters of the Blind doesn't sound right.

[JeeberD]

Woohoo! Miners beat Arizona again! :)

[Buccaneer]

Originally posted by QuikSand
I confess this is the first I've seen of your sim, but it looks interesting.



I echo that. Do I assume that you are running coach-mode NCAA 2004?

[Poli]

QS, did you see the Army-Navy game? :) Then again, aren't they the Sisters of the Blind?

CR, this looks pretty cool, wish I had time to digest everything, but with net access as is...I'll have to lay off till I get home. Good stuff, though!

[Chief Rum]

I'm not surprised you picked up on this, QS. I used a generic team for all Division I-AA squads. I didn't have time to research them extensively as well, and also very little interaction between them and Division I (relatively) made it harder to really nail down the real talent difference. Also, there were only one or two Division I-AA victories over Division I teams last season, leading to my conclusion that, even for the weakest teams, it's practically a guaranteed win. So I jimmied up a Division I-AA team that was near the bottom of all offensive and defensive categories, setting it at +10% imporvement from the minimum performance level of the worst team in each category.

So the DI-AA teams are pretty miserable. Actually, if I had realized just how bad I had made them, I would have at least increased the average up 20%. But I decided that the rarity of a DI-AA victory over a Division I squad was infrequent enough to not be worth the extended effort.

When I calculated the team values for all DI teams, I excluded their stats versus Division I-AA squads. This practically wiped out Kanasas State's schedule. Just kidding, J-Hawk fans. :)

CR

[korme]

Lydell Ross and Maurice Hall (both now Juniors) are very capable backs and without Clarett, like last season, I am not too worried with these two in.

[Aylmar]

It's bad form to refer to the Kansas State Wildcats as Jayhawks. ;)

[General Mike]

If Rutgers loses to Buffalo in real life, I will jump.

[dawgfan]

Originally posted by Shorty3281
Lydell Ross and Maurice Hall (both now Juniors) are very capable backs and without Clarett, like last season, I am not too worried with these two in.

I don't doubt that they are capable backs, and with another year's experience for them and the returning O-line they should be better, but the difference last season for the Buckeyes with and without Clarett is significant:

Without Clarett, Altogether
at Cincinnati, 23-19
Penn State, 13-7
Minnesota, 34-3
at Purdue, 10-6
at Illinois, 23-16 (OT)
average margin of victory = ~10 points

Without Clarett, Most of the Game
at Wisconsin, 19-14

With Clarett
Texas Tech, 45-21
Kent State, 51-17
Washington State, 25-7
Indiana, 45-17
at Northwestern, 27-16
San Jose State, 50-7
Michigan, 14-9
Miami 31-24
average margin of victory = ~21 points

Assuming Wisconsin as a game with Clarett...

With Clarett:
Rushes Per Game: 45
Average Total Yards per Game: 217
Average Rushing TDs per Game: 2.9
Average Yards per Rush: 4.8
Passes Completed Per Game: 13
Passes Attempted Per Game: 19
Average Total Passing Yards per Game: 188
Touchdown Passes: 1
Passes Intercepted: 0.2

Without Clarett:
Rushes Per Game: 44
Average Total Yards per Game: 144
Average Rushing TDs per Game: 1
Average Yards per Rush: 3.2
Passes Completed Per Game: 12
Passes Attempted Per Game: 21
Average Total Passing Yards per Game: 147
Touchdown Passes: 1
Passes Intercepted: 1

[TroyF]

Originally posted by dawgfan
I don't doubt that they are capable backs, and with another year's experience for them and the returning O-line they should be better, but the difference last season for the Buckeyes with and without Clarett is significant:

Without Clarett, Altogether
at Cincinnati, 23-19
Penn State, 13-7
Minnesota, 34-3
at Purdue, 10-6
at Illinois, 23-16 (OT)
average margin of victory = ~10 points

Without Clarett, Most of the Game
at Wisconsin, 19-14

With Clarett
Texas Tech, 45-21
Kent State, 51-17
Washington State, 25-7
Indiana, 45-17
at Northwestern, 27-16
San Jose State, 50-7
Michigan, 14-9
Miami 31-24
average margin of victory = ~21 points

Assuming Wisconsin as a game with Clarett...

With Clarett:
Rushes Per Game: 45
Average Total Yards per Game: 217
Average Rushing TDs per Game: 2.9
Average Yards per Rush: 4.8
Passes Completed Per Game: 13
Passes Attempted Per Game: 19
Average Total Passing Yards per Game: 188
Touchdown Passes: 1
Passes Intercepted: 0.2

Without Clarett:
Rushes Per Game: 44
Average Total Yards per Game: 144
Average Rushing TDs per Game: 1
Average Yards per Rush: 3.2
Passes Completed Per Game: 12
Passes Attempted Per Game: 21
Average Total Passing Yards per Game: 147
Touchdown Passes: 1
Passes Intercepted: 1

Good stuff. I didn't think it was that severe either. Great post.

TroyF

[korme]

Interesting. Thanks dawgfan.

[dawgfan]

The Clarett info was cut and pasted from the Dawgman.com message boards. Another dawg fan was doing some research on the impact of Clarett missing the Husky game.

Should be an interesting matchup - one of the Husky strengths last season was run defense (11th in the nation at 97.7 per game), although playing in the pass-happy Pac-10 probably helped those numbers. The Husky pass defense improved considerably over the 2nd half of last season and the secondary enters this season healthy and with much greater experience.

The Buckeye's revamped secondary will be tested by Cody Pickett to Reggie Williams/Charles Frederick. Whether the Huskies can mount any kind of running game against the Ohio State D will be critical; the Huskies did churn out 234 yards of rushing in their game scrimmage last night, so there is some hope that the team will have a running game this season.

I keep hearing various people talking about NC State visiting the 'shoe and the tough conference schedule and downplaying the Husky game - I don't know if the Buckeye players are overlooking the Huskies, but I think they'd better come prepared. Washington could pull the upset here. Remember, if not for the 12 men on the field penalty (and a questionable official's call on a 4th down pass completion) the Huskies would've beaten Michigan in last year's opener in Ann Arbor.

[TroyF]

Now that Ricky N is gone I can like the Huskies again. :)

TroyF

[dawgfan]

You'd like Keith Gilbertson Troy - he's a no-nonsense football coach. It's amazing how much different Husky practices have been since he took over - much quicker tempo, lot's of emphasis on conditioning, team accountability for screw-ups, significant time spent on special teams. Oh, and no music during warm-ups.

Gilby had a tough time at Cal in his four years as head man there, but he's shown a remarkable return so far at Washington to the tenets that Don James preached when he was coach. The proof will be in the pudding, i.e. how well the team performs on the field, but so far Gilbertson has most of the fanbase up here very excited for a return to Husky football.

There are still a remarkable number of Neuheisel holdouts here though that think he got the shaft...

[Chief Rum]

Originally posted by Aylmar
It's bad form to refer to the Kansas State Wildcats as Jayhawks. ;)

Whoops. I often do that with dual state schools (the Kansas-Kansas States, the Oregon-Oregon States, etc.). Especially when they exchange becoming powers from football to basketball (meaning I have reasont o remember both of them). :)

CR

[Chief Rum]

Top 25 Key, Week Two

<font face=courier>

Rk College Last Week Next Week

1. Oklahoma (1-0) W 29-0 vs North Texas at #22 Alabama (0-1)
2. Miami (1-0) W 43-16 vs Louisiana Tech vs #20 Florida (0-1)
3. Ohio State (1-0) W 31-26 vs #21 Washington vs San Diego State (1-0)
4. Texas (1-0) W 39-27 vs New Mexico State Bye
5t.Kansas State (2-0) W 50-3 vs. Troy State vs McNeese State (I-AA)
5t.Auburn (1-0) W 24-19 vs #8 USC at Georgia Tech (0-1)
7. Virginia Tech (1-0) W 25-21 vs Central Florida vs James Madison (I-AA)
8. USC (0-1) L 19-24 vs #5 Auburn vs BYU (1-0)
9. Georgia (1-0) W 35-16 vs Clemson vs Middle Tennessee State (1-0)
10. Pittsburgh (0-0) Bye vs Kent State (0-1)
11. Michigan (1-0) W 46-15 vs Central Michigan vs Houston (1-0)
12. NC State (1-0) W 56-0 vs Western Carolina at Wake Forest (1-0)
13. LSU (1-0) W 31-15 vs UL-Monroe at Arizona (0-1)
14. Tennessee (1-0) W 33-23 vs Fresno State vs Marshall (1-0)
15. Maryland (1-0) W 26-22 vs Northern Illinois at #17 Florida State (1-0)
16. Wisconsin (0-1) L 19-26 vs West Virginia vs Akron (1-0)
17. Florida State (1-0) W 43-19 vs North Carolina vs #15 Maryland (1-0)
18. Virginia (0-1) L 23-32 vs Duke at South Carolina (1-0)
19. Notre Dame (0-0) Bye vs Washington State (1-0)
20. Florida (0-1) L 21-41 vs San Jose State at #2 Miami (1-0)
21. Washington (0-1) L 26-31 vs #3 Ohio State vs Indiana (0-1)
22. Alabama (0-1) L 30-34 (OT) vs South Florida vs #1 Oklahoma (1-0)
23. Purdue (0-0) Bye vs Bowling Green (1-0)
24. Oregon State (1-0) W 67-0 vs Sacramento State at Fresno State (0-1)
25t.Texas A&M (0-1) L 12-24 vs Arkansas State vs Utah (1-0)
25t.UCLA (0-0) Bye at Colorado (0-1)

</font>

[Chief Rum]

Complete Week Two Schedule

SEPTEMBER 4

Southern Miss (1-0) at UAB (1-0)
Western Carolina (I-AA) at Eastern Michigan (1-0)

SEPTEMBER 6

Top 25 Games

#1 Okahoma (1-0) at #22 Alabama (0-1)
#2 Miami (1-0) at #20 Florida (0-1)
#15 Maryland (1-0) at #17 Florida State (1-0)
#5 Auburn (1-0) at Georgia Tech (0-1)

BYU (1-0) at #8 USC (0-1)
#12 NC State (1-0) at Wake Forest (1-0)
Marshall (1-0) at #14 Tennessee (1-0)
#18 Virginia (1-0) at South Carolina (0-1)

Washington State (1-0) at #19 Notre Dame (0-0)
#24 Oregon State (1-0) at Fresno State (0-1)
Utah (1-0) at #25 Texas A&M (0-1)
#25 UCLA (0-0) at Colorado (0-1)

San Diego State (1-0) at #3 Ohio State (1-0)
Middle Tennessee State (1-0) at #9 Georgia (1-0)
Kent State (0-1) at #10 Pittsburgh (0-0)
Houston (1-0) st #11 Michigan (1-0)

Arizona (0-1) at # 13 LSU (1-0)
Akron (1-0) at #16 Wisconsin (0-1)
Indiana (0-1) at #21 Washington (0-1)
Bowling Green (1-0) at #23 Purdue (0-0)

McNeese State (I-AA) at #5 Kansas State (2-0)
James Madison (I-AA) at #7 Virginia Tech (1-0)

Rest Of Schedule

Boston College (0-1) at Penn State (1-0)
New Mexico (1-0) at Texas Tech (1-0)
Colorado State (1-0) at California (0-2)
Utah State (0-1) at Nebraska (1-0)

Missouri (1-0) at Ball State (1-0)
Wyoming (1-0) at Oklahoma State (0-1)
West Virginia (1-0) at East Carolina (0-1)
Mississippi (1-0) at Memphis (1-0)

Syracuse (0-0) at North Carolina (0-1)
Ohio (1-0) at Iowa State (1-0)
Air Force (1-0) at Northwestern (1-0)
Troy State (0-1) at Minnesota (1-0)

Nevada (1-0) at Oregon (1-0)
Navy (1-0) at Texas Christian (0-1)
San Jose State (2-0) at Stanford (0-0)
UNLV (0-1) at Kansas (0-1)

Tulsa (0-1) at Arkansas (0-0)
Buffalo (1-0) at Iowa (1-0)
Baylor (0-1) at North Texas (0-1)
Rutgers (0-1) at Michigan State (0-1)

UConn (1-0) at Army (0-0)
Louisiana Tech (0-1) at UL-Lafayette (0-1)
Northern Arizona (I-AA) at Arizona State (0-0)
Liberty (I-AA) at Toledo (1-0)

Furman (I-AA) at Clemson (0-1)
Nicholls State (I-AA) at South Florida (1-0)
Idaho State (I-AA) at Boise State (0-0)
Murray State (I-AA) at Kentucky (1-0)

Tennessee Tech (I-AA) at Northern Illinois (0-1)
Northwestern State (I-AA) at Tulane (1-0)
Western New Mexico State (I-AA) at New Mexico State (0-1)
New Hampshire (I-AA) at Central Michigan (0-1)

William & Mary (I-AA) at Western Michigan (0-1)
Western Carolina (I-AA) at Duke (1-0)
Chatanooga (I-AA) at Vanderbilt (0-1)
Illinois State (I-AA) at Illinois (0-1)

Eastern Washington (I-AA) at Idaho (0-1)
Villanova (I-AA) at Temple (0-1)
Cal Poly-SLO (I-AA) at UTEP (1-0)
Tennessee-Martin (I-AA) at Arkansas State (1-0)

Stephen F. Austin (I-AA) at UL-Monroe (0-1)

CR

[mckerney]

Troy State (0-1) at Minnesota (1-0)

I'll be at that game. I expect it to be a boring blow out, inflating the hopes for the local media and most Gopher fans as they tear through the preseason, only to get their asses handed to them several times in Big 10 play.

[Chief Rum]

Week Two Results

WEEK TWO: September 2-8

SEPTEMBER 4

Southern Miss 30, UAB 21
Eastern Michigan 35, Western Illinois 9

SEPTEMBER 6

Top 25 Matchups

Oklahoma 29, Alabama 10 The Tide made this one tougher last season. Oklahoma S Brandon Everage returned a Brodie Croyle interception for a touchdown, and the Sooners also forced a key fumble out of Alabama RB Shaud Williams, who otherwise put up a fine game against one of the nation's best defenses (88 yards). Croyle was miserable when Alabama needed him to pass them to a victory, as Oklahoma's defense was in his face all day. The Sooners' offense was once again unspectacular, but good enough to get the job done. The Crimson Tide defense actually outdid the Sooners' D in the rush, limiting Kejuan Jones to just 44 yards and the whole Sooner rushing game to just 75 yards overall. But where Croyle failed, White came through, passing for 210 yards and a touchdown with a short, efficient passing game.

Miami 37, Florida 13 Miami continues to play with an edge, not missing a beat with a new runner and a new passer. Frank Gore was incredible in this visit to the Swamp, gaining 165 yards and scoring three times for the visiting Canes. Brock Berlin threw for 155 yards and a score in support, as the Canes piled up 466 yards on the Gators' D. As for the Gators, they don't seem to be nearly as good as everyone pegged them to be. RB Ran Cathon gained a solid 102 yards on the ground, but Miami's tough pass defense put the lockdown on QB Ingle Martin, limiting him to 135 yards, no scores and an interception.

Florida State 24, Maryland 20 In a surprising twist of their usual offensive styles, the Seminoles and Terps engaged in an old-fashioned defense and smash-mouth style game, and went back and forth before Florida State finally pulled it out. Neither offense broke 300 yards in total offense, primarily because neither had 150 yards throught he air on the day. Seminole RB Greg Jones rushed for 119 yards and a couple scores to key the Florida State attack. Bruce Perry was the horse for Maryland, gaining 95 yards and scoring a touchdown. Terps QB Scott McBrien had a tough team with Florida State's pass defense, throwing for just 145 yards and an interception. Florida State got the decisive score in the middle of the fourth quarter when Jones punched it in ofr his second score of the day.

Top 25 Upsets

Utah 29, Texas A&M 24 I don't think my system likes what the Aggies are bringing back this season. Doesn't it know that thiis is Dennis Franchione's return to texas? Apparently not. The Utes used a two-pronged attack of QB Brett Elliot (211 yards, 2 touchdowns) and RB Brandon Warfield (96 yards, 2 scores) to pull this one out. Elliot led the then down-by-two Utes up the field as the seconds dwindled in the fourth quarter. With under a minute to play, he connected with WR Larry Miles on a nice 18-yard corner pass and that proved to be the difference. The Aggies got a strong performance from QB Reggie McNeal (226 yards, two touchdowns), but it wasn't enough to hold off Utah.

Other Quality Top 25 Games

Wisconsin 33, Akron 26 A fine passing effort came up against a great rushing attack. The runners wons. Wisconsin RB Anthony Davis followed up a superb effort in the loss to West Virginia last week with a defense-wearing 205 yards, as the Badgers got 259 rushing yards on the day for their first victory of the year. QB Charlie Frye, though, practically met Davis pace-for-pace, surprising the Badgers' defense and throwing for 300 yards and two scores. In the end, though, it wasn't enough. With Frye and Davis cancelling each other out, the difference might have been the passing of Wisconsin QB Jim Sorgi, who threw for 145 yards and a touchdown, while the Wisconsin D limited the Zips to 107 yards on the ground.

Purdue 30, Bowling Green 18 The play on the field said the Boilermakers dominated this one, but they gave their best effort toward giving it away. Purdue piled up 468 total yards to just 268 by Bowling Green, but two key turnovers, an interception and a fumble, kept the Falcons much closer than expected. Kyle Orton passed for 233 yards and a touchdown, to go along with his interception, and RB Joey Harris had an eye-opening 170 yards on the ground for Purdue.

USC 30, BYU 13 It seemed like neither team wanted this one. The two teams combined for five turnovers on the day. The reality is that the Trojans pretty much outclassed the Cougars, led by a dominating performance by RB Hershel Dennis (143 yards, three touchdowns). BYU is a passing school and they didn't diappoint with Matt Berry putting up 204 yards and a touchdown, but they couldn't get anything going on the ground against a very tough USC defense, rushing for just 63 yards total.

UCLA 25, Colorado 14 The Bruins used a balanced run-pass attack and proved to be brutally efficient against Colorado's air attack to win out on what was mostly a defensive battle here. Like last year, the Buffs power rushed their way to 160 yards of total rushing yards, including 112 yards by RB Bobby Purify, but a tough Bruins' D kept QB Joel Klatt shuttered and limited him to an astonishing 94 yards passing, including an interception. The Bruins were led by RB Tyler Ebell, who had 105 yards rushing, and QB Matt Moore, who passed for 188 yards.

Oregon State 42, Fresno State 19 The Bulldogs did themselves no favors by opening with two tough matchups like the Vols of Tennessee last week, and now the Oregon State Beavers this week. The Beavers showed off the dynamic offense many have predicted by powering over Fresno State with 545 yards. QB Derek Anderson passed for 275 yards and backfield cohort RB Stephen Jackson was similarly dominating with 168 yards. The Beaver defense was surprisingly tough, limiting the pass-happy Bulldogs to just 318 total yards of offense.

Georgia 24, Middle Tennessee State 20 Coming off of a fine win against Clemson and hosting the lowly Blue Raiders, one can bet Georgia didn't think this would be so hard. The Dawgs stuggled to put the Blue Raiders away throughout the game before finally allowing time to run out for somewhat of a backward victory. QB David Greene passed for 221 yards and a touchdown to pace the Dawgs. Middle Tennessee kept it close with a strong running game, 146 yards in total. Relative unknown Don Calloway accounted for 100 yards by himself. Overall, though, the Georgia defense was very tough, limiting the Blue Raiders to 268 yards of total offense, and the offense was just enough to get the job done.

Tennessee 36, Marshall 20 The Vols are going out of their way to play the top programs of the non-BCS conferences, opening with Fresno State and now meeting the Thundering Herd of Marshall. Despite the final tally, this game was very evenly matched and wasn't put away until RB Cedric Houston broke a 47-yard run in the middle of the fourth quarter to get Tennessee its fifth score of the day. The run capped a 106-yard, two TD effort by Houston, although he was overshadowed by QB Casey Claussen's 242 yards and three scores. Marshalls' QB Stan Hill almost topped Claussen with 240 yards himself, but he passed for just one touchdown. Marshall actually outgained the Vols 398-370.

NC State 28, Wake Forest 18 Balance won out over a dominating ground game in this one. Demon Deacons' RB Chris Barclay led a 219-yard Wake Forest rushing attack with 152 yards himself, but it couldn't overcome a poor, 104-yard performance by QB Cory Randolph against a tough Spartan pass D. QB Phillip Rivers passed for 211 yards and a touchdown to match up with a strong two-score, 107 yard perfoemance by TB T.A. McLendon.

Ohio State 28, San Diego State 25 One week after a thrilling victory over Top 25 team Washington, the Buckeyes nearly blew out in the following letdown. The Aztecs' QB Adam Hall became the next exhibit in what is becoming a disturbing trend of bad performances by Ohio State's pass D. After giving up over 300 yards to nationally-recognized Cody Pickett, they gave up 286 yards and three scores to Hall, despite limiting San Diego State to a dismal 43 yards on the ground. RB Lydell Ross was the main man in a gut-it-out offensive attack for the Buckeyes, gaining 122 yards and scoring two touchdowns. Ohio State built up an early lead with its power running,b ut Hall's heroics almost got San Diego State back in it.

Notre Dame 33, Washington State 8 Fans who only appreciate offensive fireworks probably got an afternoon nap out of this one. The Fighting Irish's tough defense from last season has apparently returned in fine form, limiting the Cougars to 250 total yards, and just 53 on the ground. They also forced three turnovers, including a thrilling interception return for touchdown by exciting CB Vontez Duff. That was about the extent of the excitement, though, as the Irish themselves stumbled on offense with just 275 yards of total offense. Still, they were efficient enough to score three offensive touchdowns and nab two field goals.

All Top 25 Scores

#1 Oklahoma 29, #22 Alabama 10
#2 Miami 37, #20 Florida 13
#17 Florida State 24, #15 Maryland 20
#5 Auburn 45, Georgia Tech 3

#8 USC 30. BYU 8
#12 NC State 28, Wake Forest 18
#14 Tennessee 33, Marshall 20
#18 Virginia 43, South Carolina 7

#19 Notre Dame 33, Washington State 8
#24 Oregon State 42, Fresno State 19
Utah 29, #25 Texas A&M 24
#25 UCLA 25, Colorado 14

#3 Ohio State 28, San Diego State 25
#9 Georiga 24, Middle Tennessee State 20
#10 Pittsburgh 51, Kent State 10
#11 Michigan 44, Houston 15

#13 LSU 41, Arizona 3
#16 Wisconsin 33, Akron 26
#21 Washington 49, Indiana 18
#23 Purdue 30, Bowling Green 18

#5 Kansas State 57, McNeese State (I-AA) 7
#7 Virginia Tech 50, James Madison 14

Key Non-Top 25 Games

Penn State 39, Boston College 18
New Mexico 42, Texas Tech 27
Colorado State 33, California 26
Nebraska 39, Utah State 8

Missouri 39, Ball State 19
Wyoming 36, Oklahoma State 30
West Virginia 42, East Carolina 24
Mississippi 38, Memphis 12

Rest Of The Scores

North Carolina 42, Syracuse 37
Iowa State 27, Ohio 25
Air Force 38, Northwestern 27
Minnesota 39, Troy State 10

Oregon 33, Nevada 14
Navy 21, Texas Christian 19
San Jose State 36, Stanford 14
UNLV 32, Kansas 28

Arkansas 40, Tulsa 16
Iowa 29, Buffalo 18
North Texas 30, Baylor 11
Rutgers 21, Michigan State 19

UConn 28, Army 6
Louisiana Tech 40, UL-Lafayette 20
Arizona State 65, Northern Arizona (I-AA) 3
Toledo 50, Liberty (I-AA) 14

Clemson 46, Furman (I-AA) 7
South Florida 58, Nicholls State (I-AA) 14
Boise State 50, Idaho State (I-AA) 7
Kentucky 45, Murray State (I-AA) 8

Northern Illinois 55, Tennessee Tech (I-AA) 14
Tulane 47, Northwestern State (I-AA) 3
New Mexico State 46, Western New Mexico State (I-AA) 11
Central Michigan 39, New Hampshire (I-AA) 12

Western Michigan 45, William & Mary (I-AA) 3
Duke 58, Western Carolina (I-AA) 7
Vanderbilt 33, Chatanooga (I-AA) 14
Illinois 54, Illinois State (I-AA) 6

Idaho 40, Eastern Washington (I-AA) 9
Temple 36, Villanova (I-AA) 3
UTEP 45, Cal Poly-SLO (I-AA) 6
Arkansas State 50, Tennessee-Martin (I-AA) 14
UL-Monroe 44, Stephen F. Austin (I-AA) 3

CR

[JeeberD]

UTEP at 2-0? I love it! We have now equalled the number of wins he had each of the past two seasons! :D

[The_herd]

Marshall lost, I'm boycotting this thread.:D

Actually this is pretty interesting, its got my attention. Chief, your doing a hell of a job.

Just make sure The Herd don't lose another game, especially in MAC play.

[General Mike]

Originally posted by Chief Rum
Week Two Results
Rutgers 21, Michigan State 19



Awesomeness :cool:

[Wolfpack]

28-18 in a State-Wake game sounds about right. Even with all they lost this offseason, that offense is maddening to stop. Just ask FSU after the first quarter of last year's game (they did eventually figure it out and throttled the Deacs for the remainder of the game, but it was mindblowing to watch the first fifteen minutes).

[sterlingice]

Originally posted by Chief Rum
Whoops. I often do that with dual state schools (the Kansas-Kansas States, the Oregon-Oregon States, etc.). Especially when they exchange becoming powers from football to basketball (meaning I have reasont o remember both of them). :)

CR

:mad: Yes, but some of us might be offended when being compared to our wanker neighbors to the west. Tho, I would be quite happy to have a football program as good as theirs.

SI