The Shadow
08-26-2003, 12:29 AM
My discussion with torahbirth started me thinking about break out players. What I've seen with FOF4c is totally different than what I've seen with FOF2001 and what was described by QuikSand with earlier versions of FOF4.
Most of my observations are from my current OPU league which is about 20 years old.
Case 1 - Cole Craig QB
In 2007, an OPU league is still not mature. My starting QB had a rating like 21/21 but he led the league in passing. But I did need a back-up QB. But that year's QB class was rather weak. The best QB was 21/73 but since I was picking late, there was no way I was going to get him.
In round 3, I select Cole Craig, a QB who's got the same style as my starter (Long Pass) and he's Idolized. His rating is 8/52. I'm thinking if he's as good as 52, he'll start for a few years until I find better.
In 2008, I lose my starter to a season ending injury and I start Cole Craig. As they say, the rest is history. By year 2020, Cole Craig has the career record for TD passes, his career QB rating is 104.4, his career completion % is 65.5, his average per pass attempt is 8.4 and he has thrown 284 TD versus 107 INT's.
He was league MVP twice, 1st team QB twice, offensive player twice, and Superbowl MVP once. Ironically, in 2015 he was league MVP, 1st team QB and Offensive player of the year, but that year he was injured in the playoffs and didn't make it to the Superbowl.
During almost his entire career, the coach had a Good rating on QB and Good rating on Offensive Plays.
Cole Craig was a case of gradual improvement in his ratings. In his prime, his stat was 73/73, but it was a gradual increase from his rookie 8/52.
Case 2 - Tyrell Bowblis, S
In 2013, I needed a back-up safety. Searching in free agency, I found a 41/42 FS, who was a 5-year vet. He was never drafted but played 4 years with GB. Although his rating was mediocre, I picked him up because he was a bargain back-up for 3 years and his career stats was excellent - 20+ in his PDPct.
In his 3 years with my team, he only played as back-up, almost never starting. He wasn't even active half the time.
After his third year with my team, he wasn't signed through free agency, but after the draft, I noticed that his rating had suddenly jumped from 40/41 prior to the draft, to 69/70 after the draft. Since he wasn't signed, I signed him to another 3 year deal and he started those years. After that, he was an 11 year vet asking for "stupid" money, so he was signed by another team during free agency.
This case was very different from Cole Craig's case - it was a sudden break-out. There was no indication at all he was going to break-out. His popularity was Fans Need a Scorecard. The only indication at all was that his Career Stats were excellent.
Overall, in a 20-year career, I would say I've had about 4-5 players break out as in Case 1. But only 2 players broke out as in Case 2.
I haven't found a reliable clue, but that's the part I like the best. I can only use my hunches and career stats.
Have others noticed the same things?
Most of my observations are from my current OPU league which is about 20 years old.
Case 1 - Cole Craig QB
In 2007, an OPU league is still not mature. My starting QB had a rating like 21/21 but he led the league in passing. But I did need a back-up QB. But that year's QB class was rather weak. The best QB was 21/73 but since I was picking late, there was no way I was going to get him.
In round 3, I select Cole Craig, a QB who's got the same style as my starter (Long Pass) and he's Idolized. His rating is 8/52. I'm thinking if he's as good as 52, he'll start for a few years until I find better.
In 2008, I lose my starter to a season ending injury and I start Cole Craig. As they say, the rest is history. By year 2020, Cole Craig has the career record for TD passes, his career QB rating is 104.4, his career completion % is 65.5, his average per pass attempt is 8.4 and he has thrown 284 TD versus 107 INT's.
He was league MVP twice, 1st team QB twice, offensive player twice, and Superbowl MVP once. Ironically, in 2015 he was league MVP, 1st team QB and Offensive player of the year, but that year he was injured in the playoffs and didn't make it to the Superbowl.
During almost his entire career, the coach had a Good rating on QB and Good rating on Offensive Plays.
Cole Craig was a case of gradual improvement in his ratings. In his prime, his stat was 73/73, but it was a gradual increase from his rookie 8/52.
Case 2 - Tyrell Bowblis, S
In 2013, I needed a back-up safety. Searching in free agency, I found a 41/42 FS, who was a 5-year vet. He was never drafted but played 4 years with GB. Although his rating was mediocre, I picked him up because he was a bargain back-up for 3 years and his career stats was excellent - 20+ in his PDPct.
In his 3 years with my team, he only played as back-up, almost never starting. He wasn't even active half the time.
After his third year with my team, he wasn't signed through free agency, but after the draft, I noticed that his rating had suddenly jumped from 40/41 prior to the draft, to 69/70 after the draft. Since he wasn't signed, I signed him to another 3 year deal and he started those years. After that, he was an 11 year vet asking for "stupid" money, so he was signed by another team during free agency.
This case was very different from Cole Craig's case - it was a sudden break-out. There was no indication at all he was going to break-out. His popularity was Fans Need a Scorecard. The only indication at all was that his Career Stats were excellent.
Overall, in a 20-year career, I would say I've had about 4-5 players break out as in Case 1. But only 2 players broke out as in Case 2.
I haven't found a reliable clue, but that's the part I like the best. I can only use my hunches and career stats.
Have others noticed the same things?