Ping: TroyF

[MIJB#19]

Hey Troy, you seem to be quite busy lately at FOFC analyzing Fantasy Teams and all, a couple of the FOFCers are interested in your analysis skills about the 2003 Euro FFL rosters.

You could either visit the thread: http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/forums/showthread.php?s=&postid=220926#post220926
But for your ease I dumped all the info here.

Scoring system
Passing (25yd 1pt, td 6pt, int -2pt)
Rushing (10yd 1 pt, td 6pt, fumble 0pt)
Receive (10yd 1 pt, td 6pt)
spec rm (ret td 6pt, 2pat 2pt, FG 3pt, 1pat 1pt)
Def pt allowed (0pt 10pt, 1-6pt 5pt, rest 0pt)
Def stats (sack 1pt, int 2pt, fumb rec 2pt, bl k 2pt, td 2 6pt, ret td 6pt)
It seems return tds are scored both individually and by the defense...

Teams (drafted in snake order)
Alf Hardcats - draft #9 and #4
QB Brad Johnson (TBB)
QB Jake Plummer (DEN)
RB Shaun Alexander (SEA)
RB Fred Taylor (JAC)
RB Stephen Davis (CAR)
RB Thomas Jones (TBB)
RB Justin Fargas (OAK)
TE Marcus Pollard (IND)
TE Mikhael Ricks (DET)
WR Koren Robinson (SEA)
WR Amani Toomer (NYG)
WR Jerry Porter (OAK)
WR Reggie Wayne (IND)
WR Robert Ferguson (GBP)
PK Sebastian Janikowski (OAK)
DT Oakland Raiders (OAK)

An Oriant Stars - draft #12 and #1
QB Rich Gannon (OAK)
QB Tom Brady (NEP)
RB Ahman Green (GBP)
RB Trung Canidate (WAS)
RB Stacey Mack (HOU)
RB Correll Buckhalter (PHI)
RB Moe Williams (MIN)
TE Bubba Franks (GBP)
TE Billy Miller (HOU)
WR Marvin Harrison (IND)
WR Rod Smith (DEN)
WR Rod Gardner (WAS)
WR Charles Rogers (DET)
PK John Carney (NOS)
DT Seattle Seahawks (SEA)
DT Arizona Cardinals (ARI)

Ayr Raiders - draft #8 and #5
QB Kurt Warner (STL)
QB Drew Bledsoe (BUF)
QB Brian Griese (MIA)
RB Travis Henry (BUF)
RB Garrison Hearst (SFO)
RB Kevan Barlow (SFO)
RB Willis McGahee (BUF)
TE Alge Crumpler (ATL)
TE Ernie Conwell (NOS)
WR Donald Driver (GBP)
WR Keyshawn Johnson (TBB)
WR Ed McCaffrey (DEN)
WR Antwaan Randle El (PIT)
PK Jeff Wilkins (STL)
DT Baltimore Ravens (BAL)
DT Denver Broncos (DEN)

Elven Knights - draft #2 and #11
QB Steve McNair (TEN)
QB Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)
RB Ricky Williams (MIA)
RB Tiki Barber (NYG)
RB Anthony Thomas (CHI)
RB Antowain Smith (NEP)
RB Lamont Jordan (NYJ)
TE Randy McMichael (MIA)
TE Freddie Jones (ARI)
WR Eric Moulds (BUF)
WR David Boston (SDC)
WR Andre Johnson (HOU)
WR Keenan McCardell (TBB)
PK Mike Vanderjagt (IND)
DT Atlanta Falcons (ATL)
DT Dallas Cowboys (DAL)

Garden Dwarves - draft #3 and #10
QB Aaron Brooks (NOS)
QB Kelly Holcomb (CLE)
RB Clinton Portis (DEN)
RB Jamal Lewis (BAL)
RB Troy Hambrick (DAL)
RB Marcel Shipp (ARI)
RB Ladell Betts (WAS)
TE Todd Heap (BAL)
TE Doug Jolley (OAK)
WR Randy Moss (MIN)
WR Isaac Bruce (STL)
WR Chris Chambers (MIA)
WR Todd Pinkston (PHI)
PK Jay Feely (ATL)
DT Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT)
DT New Orleans Saints (NOS)

Geg Trolls - draft #7 and #6
QB Daunte Culpepper (MIN)
QB Jay Fiedler (MIA)
RB Deuce McAllister (NOS)
RB Charlie Garner (OAK)
RB James Stewart (DET)
RB Shawn Bryson (DET)
TE Stephen Alexander (SDC)
TE Jay Riemersma (PIT)
WR Plaxico Burress (PIT)
WR Curtis Conway (NYJ)
WR Chad Johnson (CIN)
WR Tai Streets (SFO)
PK Adam Vinatieri (NEP)
PK Joe Nedney (TEN)
DT Carolina Panthers (CAR)
DT St. Louis Rams (STL)

Glasgow Kilties - draft #4 and #9
QB Jeff Garcia (SFO)
QB Drew Brees (SDC)
QB Doug Johnson (ATL)
RB Priest Holmes (KCC)
RB Corey Dillon (CIN)
RB Onterrio Smith (MIN)
RB Michael Pittman (TBB)
RB Adrian Peterson (CHI)
TE Shannon Sharpe (DEN)
WR Hines Ward (PIT)
WR Laveranues Coles (WAS)
WR James Thrash (PHI)
WR Travis Taylor (BAL)
PK David Akers (PHI)
DT Miami Dolphins (MIA)
DT Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC)

Goteborg Goblins - draft #11 and #2
QB Michael Vick (ATL)
QB Trent Green (KCC)
QB Joey Harrington (DET)
RB Duce Staley (PHI)
RB Amos Zereoue (PIT)
RB Warrick Dunn (ATL)
RB Kevin Faulk (NEP)
TE Tony Gonzalez (KCC)
TE Chad Lewis (PHI)
WR Terrell Owens (SFO)
WR Donte' Stallworth (NOS)
WR Quincy Morgan (CLE)
WR Troy Brown (NEP)
WR Bobby Shaw (BUF)
PK Martin Gramatica (TBB)
DT New England Patriots (NEP)

Maassluis Anglers - draft #5 and #8
QB Chad Pennington (NYJ)
QB Patrick Ramsey (WAS)
QB Jon Kitna (CIN)
RB Marshall Faulk (STL)
RB William Green (CLE)
RB Jerome Bettis (PIT)
RB Lamar Gordon (STL)
RB Larry Johnson (KCC)
TE Jeremy Shockey (NYG)
TE Anthony Becht (NYJ)
WR Terry Glenn (DAL)
WR Eddie Kennison (KCC)
WR Darrell Jackson (SEA)
WR Jimmy Smith (JAC)
PK Ryan Longwell (GBP)
DT Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TBB)

Paris Musketeers - draft #1 and #12
QB Peyton Manning (IND)
QB Kerry Collins (NYG)
RB Ladainian Tomlinson (SDC)
RB Emmitt Smith (ARI)
RB Olandis Gary (DET)
RB Dominic Rhodes (IND)
TE Eric Johnson (SFO)
TE Jerramy Stevens (SEA)
TE Jed Weaver (SFO)
WR Torry Holt (STL)
WR Javon Walker (GBP)
WR Ashley Lelie (DEN)
WR Santana Moss (NYJ)
WR Ike Hilliard (NYG)
DT Philadelphia Eagles (PHI)
DT Tennessee Titans (TEN)

R & D Devils - draft #6 and #7
QB Donovan McNabb (PHI)
QB Mark Brunell (JAC)
QB Vinny Testaverde (NYJ)
RB Curtis Martin (NYJ)
RB T.J. Duckett (ATL)
RB Mike Alstott (TBB)
RB Robert Holcombe (TEN)
TE Frank Wycheck (TEN)
TE Dallas Clark (IND)
WR Joe Horn (NOS)
WR Peerless Price (ATL)
WR Jake Reed (NOS)
PK Olindo Mare (MIA)
PK Kris Brown (HOU)
DT New York Giants (NYG)
DT San Francisco 49ers (SFO)

Rurhpott Miners - draft #10 and #7
QB Brett Favre (GBP)
QB Tommy Maddox (PIT)
RB Edgerrin James (IND)
RB Eddie George (TEN)
RB Michael Bennett (MIN)
RB Curtis Alexander (BUF)
TE Byron Chamberlain (MIN)
TE Mike Leach (DEN)
WR Jerry Rice (OAK)
WR Marty Booker (CHI)
WR Derrick Mason (TEN)
WR Tim Brown (OAK)
PK Jason Elam (DEN)
PK Morten Andersen (KCC)
DT Green Bay Packers (GBP)
DT Buffalo Bills (BUF)

[TroyF]

MJB, will do a quick write up later this afternoon.

TroyF

[MIJB#19]

Troy, thanks in advance.
I'm truely interested in your thoughts.
And the others might as well.
If you want to see the draft report as well, to see were teams stole Drew Brees or Olandis Gary a day after his trade or really went for it taknig Jeremy Shockey in the second round, here's a link (http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2003/options?L=57034&O=17)...

BTW, since I see you doing this a lot, though I first though it was a typo, you keep on calling me MJB, in stead of MIJB, is it a typo afterall, or anything?

[TroyF]

oops. I've just always thought of you as MJB. My eyes didn't catch the I in there. Sorry about that. :) Feel free to call me TryF sometime. :)

TroyF

[MIJB#19]

Okay Toy, I mean Try.

If MIJB was just some made up nickname, I think I had no reason at all to complain, but since MIJB stand for my initials and IJ being the by me so often promoted Dutch IJ, I'm easily triggered to asking people to notice it.

Anyway, it's kinda amazing you've been missing the I for over 3 years...

BTW, how come your analysis on NFL related threads seem a bit better worked out then others? You dig up stats like you're an NFL DB yourself.

[TroyF]

Originally posted by MIJB#19
Okay Toy, I mean Try.

If MIJB was just some made up nickname, I think I had no reason at all to complain, but since MIJB stand for my initials and IJ being the by me so often promoted Dutch IJ, I'm easily triggered to asking people to notice it.

Anyway, it's kinda amazing you've been missing the I for over 3 years...

BTW, how come your analysis on NFL related threads seem a bit better worked out then others? You dig up stats like you're an NFL DB yourself.

It is amazing I've missed it for three years. I read your posts, honest. :)

As for my analysis, I've been a stat junkie from early on. When I was 5, I was a party joke for my parents. I could name the entire Denver Bronco roster. As I got a little older, I read a ton of Bill James early works. I still own almost every baseball abstract and a ton of the Elias books. I just carried that over to football.

I've sat and watched football games with charts, trying to figure out how often the OL was really beat or how many times a team blitzed an LB. I have a fairly extensive library of those games. One that stands out is Kurt Warner's game against the Dolphins a few years ago. It may be the single best passing display I've ever seen, and is a big reason I don't believe Warner is simply a system QB. He had pressure in his face all day and sliced apart a darned good secondary that day.

I guess the best explanation is that I'm a geek. :) I sometimes come off as pushy or "know it all-ish" This is more my writing style than anything. I never mean to come off that way.

TroyF

[Franklinnoble]

Originally posted by TroyF
It is amazing I've missed it for three years. I read your posts, honest. :)



You guys aren't gonna start making out now, are you?

[heybrad]

Troy,

Is this something you'll do for other leagues or are you too busy with the leagues you have? I would be interested to see your analysis of my league, but I'm not going to bother to post the whole thing if you're too busy.

[KevinNU7]

Hey Brad!

[MIJB#19]

Originally posted by TroyF
I've been a stat junkie from early on. When I was 5, I was a party joke for my parents. I could name the entire Denver Bronco roster. As I got a little older, I read a ton of Bill James early works. I still own almost every baseball abstract and a ton of the Elias books. I just carried that over to football.

I've sat and watched football games with charts, trying to figure out how often the OL was really beat or how many times a team blitzed an LB. I have a fairly extensive library of those games. One that stands out is Kurt Warner's game against the Dolphins a few years ago. It may be the single best passing display I've ever seen, and is a big reason I don't believe Warner is simply a system QB. He had pressure in his face all day and sliced apart a darned good secondary that day.

I guess the best explanation is that I'm a geek. :) I sometimes come off as pushy or "know it all-ish" This is more my writing style than anything. I never mean to come off that way.

TroyF Great story, really.
Personally, for some reason, I've always had this name of knowing it all for I guess almost a decade, reversing roles can be really fun.
By being at this forum about football I can do that with me still being so new to football and it being very hard to get known to the NFL with no acces to tv coverage of NFL games. I have some NFL Europe experience, but that doesn't count.
And with the NFL turning into my post popular sport to follow, I need to know more and more, especially if I ever want to turn into the Dutch Chris Mortensen.:)

[TroyF]

HeyBrad,

Post away. I'll do my best. :)

MIJB,

Starting the post now. We'll see what I come up with.

TroyF

[MIJB#19]

Hey Tro,y thanks for your comments over in hte other thread.
I know my team sucks at WR, but that's what happens when you don't draft one until the 10th round...
Smith was a late round pickup to improove my team in the second half of the season.

I drafted Shockey an lot higher then probably needed, but I feel I need to get a top3 TE.
With the decent WRs, I can base my team on matchups a bit and I feel pretty fine with my RB situation, an Faulk injury can be anticipated on, though if Green is hurt, I'm doomed (unless Bettis can regain the starting job, though last year I had a hard time having to switch on a weekly base between Bettis and Zereoue)...

At least I can say I was unlucky with Pennington, but that's part of gambling to get a #2 and #3 QB in the second half of the draft...

[TroyF]

Originally posted by MIJB#19
Hey Tro,y thanks for your comments over in hte other thread.
I know my team sucks at WR, but that's what happens when you don't draft one until the 10th round...
Smith was a late round pickup to improove my team in the second half of the season.

I drafted Shockey an lot higher then probably needed, but I feel I need to get a top3 TE.
With the decent WRs, I can base my team on matchups a bit and I feel pretty fine with my RB situation, an Faulk injury can be anticipated on, though if Green is hurt, I'm doomed (unless Bettis can regain the starting job, though last year I had a hard time having to switch on a weekly base between Bettis and Zereoue)...

At least I can say I was unlucky with Pennington, but that's part of gambling to get a #2 and #3 QB in the second half of the draft...

That's the thing MIJB. (I'm getting the hand of this name thing now) You could have gotten a bigtime TE without having to draft one in the 2nd round. Here are the top 3 TE last year:

#1 - 68 catches, 836 yards, 12.3 avg, 6TD. 0 fumbles
#2 - 63 catches, 773 yards, 12.3 avg, 7 TD, 0 fumbles
#3 - 74 catches, 894 yards, 12.1 avg, 2 TD, 2 fumbles
---------------------------------------------------------------

The players in order are Todd Heap, Tony Gonzales and Jeremy Shockey. If you want to get a top TE, is there really a huge dropoff from Shockey to #2?

The only reason you should put Shockey above this level is to assume he has a drastic increase in his numbers while the other two guys level off. I don't see that happening.

There were 22 WR in the NFL last year who had 1,000 yards receiving. The only one on your roster is suspended for the first four games. In taking Shockey you passed up a guy like Randy Moss. Moss has never had below 1200 yards and 7 TD's in a season.

You passed on a proven commodity in the hopes that Shockey will put up a season like Kellen Winslow (1980- 1290 yards, 9TD), Ben Coates (1996 - 1174 yards, 7 TD) or Tood Christenson (1983 - 1247 yards, 12TD)

Something to keep in mind when drafting TE this high: If I add Shannon Sharpe to that list and only take the years these guys started, I come up with ten 1,000 yard seasons in 36 years worth of play. Some of it due to injuries (it's a demanding position). Still, would I rather take Moss in round two and grab one of the top 3 TE (2 of which will be there in the fourth for sure) or take a chance that I'm going to strike it rich with a dream TE season and pass up a consistent 1200 yard+ WR? Lets just say I'd do things differently. :)

Still, that's why we play the game. Different strategies. Maybe J.Shock will explode this year and make the pick worthwhile. Maybe Smith comes back to Jax and puts up an amazing 12 game stretch for you. Either way, tell me how it pans out. As you can tell, I love data. :)

TroyF

[MIJB#19]

Troy, the thing is, I've "always" been lucky with TEs.
I had Franks in his 8 TD year, had Itula Mili one year for just 1 week to fill in for Franks and saw him socre a TDD. I filled in Dudley once and saw him score a TD too.

Why I picked Shockey is his low # of TDs. I doubt that a guy who is concidered the best receiver on a team will score less then 8 TDs, especially with the team he has (Collins, )

I agree when you say picking Moss in round 2 and getting a top3 TE in the 3rd or 4th was possible, but knowing the draft strategy in my league a bit, I figured Shockey would not last until my 3rd round pick.
I am a bit scared about pickign Gonzalez since his flirt with the NBA. Plus he has a team were TDs could be scored by other guys in stead of him.
Todd Heap has a new QB.
Bubba Franks only scores TDs but no yards. Frank Wycheck and Shannon Sharpe are getting old, Wycheck has had injureis and won't start 16 games, Sharpe is a gamble because there are decent TEs behind him and there are lots of other who can "steal" his TDs.

I figured Shockey should be the #1 TE this year with 800 yd and 8 TD, making him (to me) more value then a Randy Moss with 1200yd and 12 td.

After I got to pick up Donald Driver and Donte Stallworth from waivers last year, I figured drafting WRs high is just a waste of draft picks.
Besides, in my championship year I wasted my 3rd round pick on Albert Connell (I know, was stupid) but it made me figure WRs are not the #1 need in fantasy football.
Even though my own research prooved that having 2 or 3 top25 WRs are needed to keep in pace with the points...

[MIJB#19]

Troy,

Are you ready for the recap?

My team went 12-2, lost to the eventual champs in the semi's and won the 3rd place game by a slim margin.

The team?
I picked up Marc Bulger in week 2 or 3 when he was about to replace Kurt Warner in stead of Jon Kitna.
I picked up Brian Westbrook in week 5 or so when the Eagles were not on the move yet.
I picked up Steve Smith in week 5 or so just before he signed the new contract that helped him bump up the rankings in October and November.
I kept Jerome Bettis around, but never really had much help from him.
Lamar Gordon turned out to be a bad insurance policy for Marshall Faulk, next year I'll grab all 3 Rams RBs (though neither sounds much safer.)
Shockey was a key element when healthy, though his injury ment I had to move on with Anthony Becht, who was not such a bad choice when Chad Pennington returned as his QB.
I kept Pennington around, making him a good start when Bulger struggled and Ramsey went down injured (I picked up Tim Hasselbeck for the playoffs as the #3 QB).
I cut Ryan Longwell in his bye week, signed Olindo Mare, but traded him in for Longwell for the playoffs.
The Bucs defense turned out to be a decent choice, though as good as I hoped.
Jimmy Smith paid my faith in him back with good stats.
Darrell Jackson was outstanding in 3 or 4 games.
Kevin Johnson turned out to be a good benchwarmer as a Jaguar.
William Green's personal problems turned out to be a sad story and in the end I cut him just before the playoffs.

But all in all, this year really showed to me that with a very lucky schedule, average teams can turn out to be 12-2 and yet the 7th best in points leaguewide.
Aside from some bad choices, I could not have upset the eventual champs or walk away victorious in the bowl game, despite a terrific roster for week 16 with most players facing the Cardinals, Lions or chocking Bengals.

[TroyF]

Looks like you had a good year.

Still, imagine if you'd taken Moss in round 2 and then either Heap or Tony G in round 3? I still think that was a mistake, but you cannot argue with a 12-2 record. Congrats. :)

[MIJB#19]

Well, I am sure going to redo my drafting plan for 2004, yet, I think roster management during the year (like picking up Bulger, Westbrook and Steve Smith) was crucial to my success, and not getting the other starters through the draft.

Besides that, I keep leaning on gambling, because my championship in 2001 came with gambling on LaDainian (rookie) Tomlinson, Shaun (then backup to Ricky Watters) Alexander and the Chicago Bears defense having an outstanding second half with an amzing performance in the fantasywise bowl game week.
After that, my team has been a bit lucky to even reach the final four, yet I keep finding it a bit of a getting even with past bad luck.

Though don't tell 3ric, he's been very unlucky in straight years, and Darkiller, who's team is always strong, yet chokes in weeks playing my team.

[TroyF]

I'm all for gambling. I do it quite often. I just think you need to know where to gamble.

Moss isn't a gamble. He's a lock for 1300+ yards, 10+ TD's and that's the LOW end.

You don't gamble with a TE over those numbers IMO. Of course, you need to understand, I have NO idea how Randy Moss slips to the second round in any fantasy draft anyway. I really don't care how quickly the running backs are flying off the board. He is as close to a bonafied lock as you're going to get in fantasy football.

The in-season moves will ALWAYS help. It's what seperates the good owner from the great one.