ESPN Football Season Simulation Results

[Philliesfan980]

After hearing all the talk on the boards here about the ESPN Sportscenter simulation, how its so unfair that the Cardinals won the superbowl, I decided to run things myself. I really want to get this game to work, because the coach only mode (All Pro settings, default sliders, 7-8 minute quarters) play the best coach only mode that I've seen in some time from a football game. Here are the results.


Simulation Only, 4 minute sim quarters (I really wish they would fix that), All Pro Level (shouldn't matter since I'm only simulating).

Standings (NFC)

north
Packers 11-5
Bears 9-7
Lions 5-11
Vikings 5-11

East
Eagles 9-7
Giants 8-8
Cowboys 6-10
Redskins 4-12

South
Bucs 13-3
Falcons (with vick) 10-6
Panthers 7-9
Saints 7-9

West
Seahawks 11-5
Rams 7-9
49ers 7-9
Cardinals 4-12

All in all, I think that these results are very believable. I'd maybe switch the bears and the vikings records in the North. Saints probably won't make the playoff's because of defensive reasons. Seahawks might be a surprise team. The 49ers could very well go 7-9, and if the Rams get injured.. 7-9 is possible. Although I see those two teams are having better records in the regular season.


AFC

North
Steelers 12-4
Bengals 9-7 (Wow)
Browns 7-9
Ravens 4-12 (Very unlikely, but offense is questionable)

East
Pats 13-3
Dolphins 10-6
Jets 8-8
Bills 8-8

South
Texans 10-6 (ok, no way that will happen)
Colts 8-8
Jags 7-9
Titans 5-11

West
Raiders 14-2
Chiefs 8-8
Chargers 6-10
Broncos 4-12

The AFC results are a little more interesting, but not that far off.In the next message, I'll post some stats. I'll need some help in detemining if 4 minutes yields realistic stats.

[VPI97]

Originally posted by Philliesfan980
Bengals 9-7 (Wow) Isn't that more unbelievable than the Cardinals winning the Super Bowl? :)

[MizzouRah]

Rams 7-9?

C'mon...... inaccuracy at its best... :)



Todd

[Philliesfan980]

I'll post the entire league results, rather than breaking them NFC/AFC.

QB - Sorted by Yards

Manning(116.6 rating) 325-470(69%) 4439 yards 31 td 5 int
Gannon(105.6 rating) 334-491(68%) 4124 yards 25 td 6 int
Farve (103.6 rating) 328-485 (68%) 4018 yards 28 td 10 int
K. Collins (99.3 rating) 317-494(64%) 3922 yards 22 td 5 int
B. Johnson (97.1 rating) 326 - 497(66%) 3888 yards 24 td 10 int

I don't think the yards, td's are off. Maybe the completion % is 5-7% too high, but the int's are way too low


RB Sorted by Yards

Alexander 299 - 1494 yards (5.0) 12 td
Tomlinson 284 - 1373 (4.8) 13 td
Bettis 288-1365 (4.7) 15 td
Taylor 312-1339 (4.3) 11 td
Holmes 299-1276 (4.4) 13 td

These results seem on target with respect to ypc, but they need more carries. Not a ton more, but the top back should have around 1800 yards in my opinion.

WR - Sorted by Catches

Boston 92 Rec - 1243 Yards (13.5)7 td
Harrison 88 rec - 1362 Yards (15.5)7 td
Ward 85 rec - 935 yards (11.0) 5 td
P. Price 82 rec - 928 yards (11.3) 7 td
M. Booker 77 Rec 1028 yards (13.4) 7 td

Again, could probably benefit from being 5 minute sim quarters. I feel the top WR should be around 100-105 or so. On a side note, only recorded 7 drops for the "worst" receiver.

Special Teams

The Field Goals were a little high (6 kickers were +90%, with 2 being perfect). The most attempts by a kicker was Vinatieri with 22 attempts. The Net Punting Average is terrible. The best Net avg. in the league was Landeta, with 14.1 NET. Which is strange , because there were 0 Return TD's (both kickoff and punt). The returners had avg return yards per return.

Defense

L. Little 11.5 sacks
J Peppers 10.5 sacks
J Kearse 10 Sacks
A Carter 9.5 Sacks
J Abraham 9.5 Sacks

R. Linebacker [arrington] - 199 Tkls
M. Washington 191 Tkls
I Gold 185 Tkls
D. Brooks 172 Tkls
D. Coakley 171 Tkls

W. Allen 9 ints
T Parrish 6 ints
P Surtain 6 ints
A. Glenn 6 ints
J Lynch 5 ints


In general, the sim engine got the players right, but the stats were a little off. Is it just me or is that a boatload of tackles. Could use some more sacks, and a smidge more ints, but I'm ok with those results.


In general: I'm not a stat geek or anything, but these numbers I can work with. Someone else desypher this, or let me know if they want additional data.

[Vince]

And do you really think that the 49ers are going to go 7-9? I mean, seriously? I think that's a pretty big stretch for a team that won a playoff game last year and lost no one but the coach.

EDIT: Just curious...did the 49ers suffer any injuries or anything? I'd think even with a poor year that Owens should be up there among the leaders in receptions.

[Philliesfan980]

Just simmed the playoff's. The Packers beat the Raiders , 31-14.

As for Terrell Owens, no injuries, played 16 games, 76 receptions, 1000 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Maybe bumping it up to 5 minute quarters will help.

[Philliesfan980]

eh, guess people don't care that much.

[ISiddiqui]

They will when the Texans go 10-6 this year ;).

[Philliesfan980]

Haha, I suppose. The game really has a good coach only mode though.

[Neuqua]

What do you like about it? (I have the game, just haven't checked coach mode out yet)

[Philliesfan980]

To be honest, I haven't had the time to really digest nfl2k4 yet. I loved NFL2k3's gameplay. When you played the game, it gave realistic outcomes for the most part (well, about as accurate as you can get in a button mashing game). Graphics are amazing, and I rarely rave, or even care, about a game's graphics.

Basically, whenever a console game has a coach only mode, it automatically gets my attention. Because, I , like most others on here, really want a game with great graphics, with coach only mode, and a great franchise as well. This game has 1. Great graphics 2. An Above Average coach only mode and 3. Average at best franchise mode (thats what I want to see if we can tweak).

[tucker342]

Really bad results....

[Philliesfan980]

tucker342;

I disagree - I'm not going to say they are "great results", but keep in mind this:

1. For the most part, they got MOST of the teams records in the ballpark. I'm the kinda guy that doesn't mind a surprise or two, as long as its not rampant. The Skins, Lions, and Cards are right on the bottom as they should be.

2. They got the players right as far as league leaders - its just the 4 minute simmed quarter option yields a little too low in most stat catagories. Maybe 5 would give a few more rushing yards, a few more receptions.

3. What they didn't get right was:
1. QB interceptions - way too low
2. Special Teams Stats are terrible
3. Tackles are way too high.

All in all, I don't know if that qualifies as "Really bad results.."