Troy and Chief show, Sunday games

[TroyF]

We started a bit late this week. Next week we'll have the previews up earlier. Here is a few games for today, the rest will be coming up in a few. . .

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Denver at Cincinnati

Chief Rum - This is a foregone conclusion, right? Not so fast. Yes, everyone is making far too big a deal of Marvin Lewis’s arrival, and the Bengals are still the Bengals. But they match up well with the Broncos and play them at home. Plummer has never played well under pressure, and pressure is the name of Lewis’s game. James and Burris are steady and strong corners who should match up well with Smith and McCaffrey. As a third receiver, Lelie will cause problems for the Bengals deep, but it’s not likely Plummer can get him the ball with his arm strength. Simmons is also a good match for Sharpe underneath. The problem is on the ground. Portis is a powerful and fast back that is a tough test for any linebacking crew, much less for one with a first time starter and a guy playing the middle for the first time. If the Broncos jump out to the lead, they can win on Portis alone. If they fall behind, Plummer’s miscues will doom them. On the other side, Kitna tends to be turnover prone, but Denver’s defense isn’t very adept at forcing turnovers. Dillon isn’t likely to rack up great yards against Denver’s defense, but he could break some nice outside runs behind the Bengals’ big tackles and toward Denver’s relatively inexperienced safeties, and slight OLB Gold. I see this one being very close and going down to the wire, with the Bengals pulling off the 35-28 upset.

Troy - Ummm. . . OK. Where to start? First off, Lelie will cause Cincy fits and Plummer has the arm to get him the ball. Second off, the single biggest mismatch Cincy has is Chad Johnson vs. either CB. I'm on record as saying I don't think Jake Plummer will be that good of a QB. I'm also on record as saying I think Marvin Lewis will do a great job for the Bengals. Problem is, it's going to take time. There isn't anyway the Bengal defense can contain Portis. A long day in Cincy, Denver 31-20.

San Diego at Kansas City

Chief Rum - This is a game of high-impact weapons and substandard defenses. You guessed it—this should be a barn-burner. Schottenheimer likes to play a physical game with his corners, and thinks he can do it this year with Jammer and Cody on the corners. Jammer will probably take the weak Kennison out of the game, but Cody is going to be mismatched on the more physical Morton. Neither McNiel nor Fox have the speed to stay with Holmes or Gonzalez in the open field, but both of those players are too good to be covered by linebackers. Three mismatches and a passer who knows his way in the system like Green spells bad news for the Chargers. San Diego will be stronger against the run, as it has the linebackers to keep with Holmes to the outside, but having to over-compensate for the pass problems is going to limit how much they can key on Holmes as a runner. On the other side, Boston is simply too powerful and tall a receiver for Warfield or McCleon to cover by themselves, so that means Woods is going to have to help out. One less safety stuffing the middle and an uninspiring group of players up the middle means that Tomlinson is likely to have a field day. Still, Holliday and Wiley are strong players on the ends and will help to cut off the ends. If Tomlinson is forced to the middle too much, he won’t be able to capitalize on his gamebreaking speed. I see Brees trying to overcompensate under a good rush, making a mistake or two, and the Chiefs will come away with this one in a high-scorer. 38-28, Chiefs.

Troy - The Chiefs are a difficult team to play, especially in Arrowhead. We've seen flashes in the preseason and have been told Priest is 100%. If that is true, the Chargers LB core is in for a tough day. Two of the three starters are stiffs against the pass. That bodes well for Priest coming out of the backfield and WR running crossing routes on 1rst downs. I think the Chiefs will have a huge day on 1rst and 2nd downs and control LT just enough to win the game, Chiefs 31-28.


St. Louis at NY Giants

Chief Rum - While the Rams went away for a year in a Warner-Faulk injury-induced hangover, the Giants became the Rams with a tight end. The formerly stodgy Giants now look positively speedy—and to be honest, the Rams don’t match up well with them at all. The Rams’ front four will get a pass rush on an overrated Giants line, but they simply lack the skill and experience they need in the back seven to keep both Barber and Shockey in line. Archuleta is clearly the best of the back seven, and he’s much more of a run stuffer than a coverage safety anyway. As good as Williams is, he probably gives up a step to Toomer and Hilliard can get to balls on Fisher. I don’t think the Giants are going to have any problems moving the ball at all, unless Collins holds onto it too long. But he is probably playing at his peak level right now. On the other side, the Giants are simply too slow at linebacker to stay with Faulk, and outside of Strahan, their line can’t compete against the Rams’ front five, especially with pace and Strahan. As a result, Faulk should have a fine day, and Warner will have what he loves—time to pick apart the secondary. That is very dangerous for the Giants. Allen and Peterson are fine cover corners, and the Rams still don’t really have that third receiver they need, but given time, Warner has the accuracy to overcome all but the most absolute of coverage. Still, I see home field advantage and a plethora of weapons on the Giants side, and I think they come away with this one in another high-scorer. 41-38, Giants.

Troy - I agree with Chief, both teams have outstanding offenses. I also agree that the game will be fairly high scoring. I'm torn on who I think the winner will be. My brain tells me the Giants CB's will make just enough stops on defense to come out ahead. My gut tells me that the St. Louis O-Line will be the difference in the game, giving Warner the protection to have a big day against the Giants secondary. I have to go with my gut, the difference in O-Line play decides this game, Rams 31-28.

[Philliesfan980]

Great picks, can't wait for the rest.

I think that there are alot of tight games this week - but such is another week in the NFL.

[The_herd]

I agree with Troy's picks, but I see the Rams beating NY fairly convincingly. I like the ram's O-line, Faulk and Warner should both have big days. There is no reason faulk shouldn't get 30-35 touches today. Outside of Strahan and the corners, this is an average D. I also think the Rams D-line is flat out better than the NY O-line, it should give Collins problems. I would say Rams 31-17

[MizzouRah]

Originally posted by The_herd
I agree with Troy's picks, but I see the Rams beating NY fairly convincingly. I like the ram's O-line, Faulk and Warner should both have big days. There is no reason faulk shouldn't get 30-35 touches today. Outside of Strahan and the corners, this is an average D. I also think the Rams D-line is flat out better than the NY O-line, it should give Collins problems. I would say Rams 31-17


I like this guy! :p


Todd

[TroyF]

Arizona at Detroit

Chief Rum - Are they really playing this game? Sorry, fans of Detroit and Pheonix; I couldn’t resist. I think the most interesting battle here will be the one in Arizona offensive coordinator Jerry Sullivan’s mind. Sullivan like squick three-receiver sets, a la the Ram, but a big line and two steady, if unspectacular, backs indicate this team is better suited to run. And the Lions aren’t too inclined to stop them either, with inconsistent players at tackle, and ends that are more rush ends than run defenders. It is quite likely the Cards’ huge line will blow the Lions off the line of scrimmage, giving even an older Emmitt Smith enough room to have a solid day. Of course, if Blake can’t make his passes, the Lions will stack the box and make the point moot. While Bly is likely to be able to handle Gilmore, I can see him getting burned, too, because of his aggressiveness, and with bBake’s strong arm and the Lions keying on the run, I suspect there might be a long play or two in Arizona’s game plan. On the other end, I see the veteran and talented Starks taking the inconsistent and young Rogers out of his game, and the rest of the secondary being more than a match for the Lions’ weak receivers. Harrington will give it a go, and will be effective with passes to Ricks underneath and to Bryson on screens, but without the long passing game, the Lion attack will soon falter. If the Lions had a big back to turn to, they might be able to key off of that—but they have scamper types in Bryson and Gary. Surprisingly, I see the Cards getting off to a nice start here and winning 31-16.

Troy - Do I really have to write up anything about the strategy of this game? Lets start off my reply here by saying Starks is injured for the year and won't shut down anyone. Kyle VandenBosch is also hurt. I'm sure, knowing the Arizona Cardinals fans luck, that they'll suffer three more injuries to the defense before the second quarter begins. Emmitt and McGinnis are class acts. It's to bad they have to suffer like this. Detroit has a good offensive coach and faces an Arizona defense that lacks any semblance fo a playmaker. Tha's not good. Reverse the score, Lions 31-16.

Jacksonville at Carolina

Chief Rum - Jacksonville doesn’t match up well against Carolina, but then, who exactly do they match up well against? Without Smith as a relief valve, Brunell is likely going to struggle behind a weak line and a fierce Panther rush. Despite the loss of Fields, the Panthers’ front seven remains about as strong as ever. The line is dominant, and no one on the Jaguars’ line can block Peppers. The linebackers, led by Morgan are quick enough to keep Taylor—the only reason Jacksonville has any hope—contained. The cornerbacks are nothing to be scared of, but Micah Rose and JJ Stokes are going to have to overcome inexperience and underachievement, respectively, to take advantage of them, and that’s only if Brunell actually holds the ball and throws it, rather than running froma collapsing pocket. Davis is just what the doctor ordered for what has been a meager Panthers’ offense. The big back should run right over the Jags’ front seven, which specializes in speedy linebackers who can’t handle Davis’s size, and young tackles who have never developed. Douglas and Brackens will bring a nice rush on the outside, but Davis never runs sweeps and Peete has the veteran savvy to stay in there and wait for Muhammad, Dyson and Smith to get open. Muhammad and Dyson, in particular, are mismatches, as their height and size are definite advantages over the mini-mite corners Jacksonville feature. The Panthers might not have a better opportunity to crush an opponent all year. 24-7, Carolina.

Troy - Chief and I are in 100% agreement on this one. The Carolina defensive line is the best you've never seen. If you have seen them, they probably still rank among the best. I don't like Carolina to go very far because their QB's and WR are below average, but they won't have to get anything done in this one. I don't think there is any question who the best team in this game is. The only question is how ugly it's going to get. Panters 27-3. (By the way Chief, you really should check your injury reports friend. Dyson, like Starks, is gone for the year.)

New Orleans at Seattle

Chief Rum The Seahawks were awful on defense last season, but they may have just done enough to at least get back to a decent middle ground this season. They are very deep along the defensive line, although no one stands out. What this means is that the Saints’ McAllister should be able to break past the line early on, behind a very solid interior line for the Saints. But as the game wears he on, he will likely become less and less effective. Will the Saints have already established too big a lead for the Seahawks to come back by then? Possibly. Horn is a mismatch against Lucas, who has to replace the injured Springs, and the veteran Pathon will be able to use good quickness and vet savvy on rookie corner Trufant. The loss of Springs also means the Seahawks have little options for dynamic third receiver Stallworth, who will likely need to be covered by a safety when the ‘Hawks need all the guys they can get close to the line to stay on top of McAllister. Deuce is also a mismatch in the passing game, where neither Brown nor Simmons have the all around skills and athleticism to keep up with him. The Seahawks will be far from helpless, though, with some weapons of their own. Howard and Grant will provide a strong pass rush that may be difficult for the recently holdout-returned Jones and reserve Floyd Womack, in for the suspended Chris Terry. Even so, a good Seattle interior should be more than a match for rookie Sullivan and the inconsistent Smith. IF Alexander then gets to the second level, where New Orleans has a lot speedy linebackers on the lighter side, he can be devastating. Carter and Ambrose were once proven stud corners, but now they are on the downside of their careers. Robinson is a mismatch on Carter and most other corners in the league, and Jackson has the size to abuse Ambrose. If Hasslebeck has anything near the stuff he had at the end of last season, he should pick the Saints’ defense apart—or at the very least open up a lot of holes for Alexander. I see a lot of scoring in this one, but I think Seattle has just enough of an edge to stay on top. 36-28, Seahawks.

Troy - I like the Saints defense a lot better than I did last year. I really do believe that they'll finish somewhere near the middle of the pack. For the life of me, I can't see how they can stop this Seahawks team. Matt Hasslebeck is primed for a monster year. He has weapons all over the field and has Walter Jones back to protect him. The Seahawks can hurt you in many different ways. All of their skill position players can catch the football and make something happen after they've caught it. Can the Seahawks stop the Saints? Probably not. I look for Brooks and Stallworth to hook up on a 60+ yard TD before the game is through. Still, I think the Hawks have a bit much firepower, Seahawks 38-28.

[The_herd]

Once again, I'm with Troy on the picks.

Detroit wins easily, Carolina wins a closer game, and as much as I want to take NO over Seattle, I think Seattle has too much on the offensive side of the ball for NO.

[TroyF]

Oakland at Tennessee

Chief RumTennessee’s defense remains an active and aggressive one, with strong players on the ends, at OLB and in the safety backfield. As such, they are able to send in numerous blitzes and play a tough, fast game. The question is whether they can do that against the Raiders. Kennedy and Sims are good tackles, but Kearse can beat either of them, and Carter is a match at the very least. That means Gannon will feel the pressure. If the Titans avoid blitzing linebackers and safeties, they might even stop the Raider defense, but it hasn’t been the Titans’ m.o. to step back from their aggressive play. So what that means is that Kearse and Carter will be allowed to circle around the pocket, and Gannon will hit Garner and Jolley and Brown and Rice for a lot of short gains in the spots where the linebackers and safeties would normally be. You know if there was a quarterback designed to counteract the kind of pressure Tennessee brings, it’s Gannon. So expect an effective West Coast offense which will key off the Titans overrunning plays, especially with new middle linebacker Brad Kressell, who is in his first game as a starter. The Raiders concentrate and letting their front four bring the pressure, while the back seven make plays. The Titans’ line is nothing to get excited about, and the Raiders line, while not blessed with any standouts is a deep one which can get a push at all four spots. With McNair’s running ability and an accuracy nearly as good as Gannon’s though, don’t expect to see McNair at the bottom of the pile too often. George should have an effective day pounding the middle, although he is unlikely to break a long one. Going outside would be a bad idea, because the ends and OLB will be playing wide to contain McNair already, and George no longer has the speed to outrace them. But he has the size to take on the Raiders’ interior D. He may face a lot of line stacks, though, if McNair can’t find a receiver. And that’s a distinct possibility, with the Raiders’ two shutdown corners. Buchanan will be on Mason, because of comparable size, and that might be able to be exploited by a vet passer like McNair. But Charles Woodson is going to take out the other corner, and Rod Woodson is going to help Buchanan with Mason. Don’t expect to many open passes for McNair in this one. I think in the end, the Raiders are just too disciplined a team on offense to fall to the Titans. I think they will win 34-21.

Troy - Sunday Night Football begins with a rematch of the AFC championship game. If you enjoy watching professional QB's ply their trade, there isn't a better game on the dockett this week. McNair and Gannon have different styles, but are two of the top 5 QB's in the league. The real question coming into this game is if the Raider pre-season is really any cause for concern. The party line is that this is a veteran team who knows what it takes to win and will turn it on when the games count. I guess that's what you have to say when you suck as badly as they did in the exhibition season. The Titans have problems of their own after an off-season of questionable treatment of some veteran players by the front office. For me, the key to this game is Eddie George. If he can give McNair just an average running game, McNair will find a way to pull this one out. I think George is up to the task, I think the Raiders timing is off and that the preseason wasn't a complete illusion, Titans 31-24.

[Chief Rum]

Heh, heh...damn injury reports. So much injury news comes through, that you forget. Then you go the Internet hoping to get an accurate and current depth chart, and they aren't updated (but there's nothing to say they aren't...ugh).

I'm going to have to find some time this work to find a good site with updated charts.

The Starks injury is a potential big one in the AZ-DET game, as I don't think anyone else on the Cards' staf can match upo with Rogers. Of course, Rogers will help them by making rookie mistakes, and dropping the ball on occasion. Still, that makes things closer. Toss on another touchdown to the Lions, but the Cards still come out on top at 31-23.

The Dyson injury won't affect Carolina at all, because they still don't really have a passing offense, and what they do have is enough against Jax's weak corners. No change in the score.

More to come, guys.

CR

[JonInMiddleGA]

Thanks guys, I like this.

And it seems ripe for an "I Beat Troy & Chief" contest. Maybe a special, limited edition poster title in lieu of the more traditional t-shirt?

[sterlingice]

[Live from my living room, watching Chiefs-Chargers]
Wow- the Cheifs just made the Chargers D look stupid. They marched right down the field and scored with Priest running it in from about 30.

SI

[Chief Rum]

NE at Buffalo

Troy - Bill Belichick vs. Drew Bledsoe and Lawyer Milloy. While much of the blame for the two Bill losses centered on Bledsoe turnovers last year, what has been missed by many is the ease in which the Patriots moved the ball on the Bills last year. Brady went 37/53 (70%) 448 yards, 5TD's and 0 INT's in the two meetings last year. The Bills didn't force a single turnover and had only one sack for a minus two yards in the meetings last year. That won't cut it. I think the teams have equal talent. . . I think the Patriots are coached better. Although I'd love to see Bledsoe beat his former team, I'll go 24-14 Patriots.

Chief – I think the Pats are coached better, too, but last year is last year. The switch to the 3-4 may be a fine one for the Pats’ with their personnel and all three down linemen can hold their own and then some. But with so few linemen, the linebackers are going to have to deal with a harassing lineman or two, and unfortunately for the Pats, Bills tackles Jennings and Williams are good ones. I think taking it up the gut will be a little much to ask of Henry, with Ted Washington and two middlebackers behind him, but he should be devastating on sweeps and runs to the corner. He has the size to abuse the Pats’ outside linebackers, and Williams will be dedicated to putting Colvin on his ass every play—and he will reach him more than you think. For me, though, the difference is Bledsoe in Septmber. The Pats didn’t face that Bledsoe—just the guy who wears down by the end of the year. I think the Bills have an advantage at receiver, and when they go to a three-receiver set—as they surely will and often-- the Pats don’t have an answer at all. Belicheck is a fine coach and figure the Bills won’t be nearly as good as all that, but they will score on this defense. The other end of things depends on the changes the Bills made on defense, because they were awful last year. Will the addition of a veteran tackle in Adams mean so much as to turn this team into a defensive force? I think not, although they will be more effective. The Bills are well set to stuff Antowain Smith, but Spikes is the only guy in the backer corps who can possibly stay with Faulk or even Fauria in the open field. With a quarterback with Brady’s accuracy, that could be deadly. The question is whether the Bills can mount enough of a pass rush to relivee the corners of longterm coverage duties. I think not. The Bills have superior corners to the Pats’ receivers, but if Brady has all day to throw, he’s going to pick them apart. I see this being a very close one. 35-32, Patriots.

[Chief Rum]

Indy at Cleveland

Troy - This is another game where the main story is probably being missed by the big preview shows. Everyone wants to center on the Kelly Holcomb/Tim Couch dual at QB. The story of this game is going to center on how well the Browns D holds up against the Colts offense. I think Kelly will have an average/above average game against the Colts. I think Manning lights up the Browns. The Colts offense puts a lot of pressure on the LB's. They utilize the TE and RB a lot for pass patterns. I think the Colts will be able to run on the Browns, which will set up the play action pass. Play action will be the death of these young LB's Sunday, Colts in a walk 34-20.

Chief – Troy is a very, very smart man. “Indiana offense? Table for eleven? Your feast is ready…” Ouch. Even if the Browns imported the best two corners in the league, they couldn’t match up with Harrison. And the line has no chance of getting to Manning with any consistency. The young linebackers are fast, but what good does it do if you are always catching James from behind 8-9 yards down the field? And they won’t handle the Colts two tight-end sets well either. Ouch, this could get ugly. On the other side, the Colts have holes on defense that a smart quarterback like Holcomb can exploit. And Green will be able to pound it out on this defense. But in the end, it’s not about if the Browns can move the ball, it’s if they can move the ball as much as Indy. And the answer to that is no. 41-27, Indy.

[Chief Rum]

Houston at Miami

Troy - The biggest question in this game: Can the Dolphins stay healthy? I'm not as high on the Dolphins as some people are. I think they are a good football team, not a great one. Still, the Texans have nothing that will scare this Dolphin team. Houston, we have a problem. . . Dolphins 38-7.

Chief – You gotta feel for the Titans. What a first week draw. Last place schedule, my ass. I think the Texans are going to be an interesting team to watch this season, but I can’t even take the time to really break this one down. I just don’t see them coming within three touchdowns of the Fins here. Houston’s schedule officially begins in Week Two this year. Dolphins 28-10 (and only because the starters will be out of the game by the fourth quarter).

[Chief Rum]

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Troy - Kyle Boller makes his first career start against Bill Cowher and the Steelers. Boller is a rookie. Rookies in the NFL struggle. End of story. I've heard talk out of Baltimore that this defense is better than the Super Bowl defense. Anyone believe that? If you do, thanks for playing our game, there is no door prize. . . Pittsburgh has to many weapons at WR, Steelers 27-7.

Chief – I’m not saying a rookie is going to play good, or that the Ravens’ defense is anywhere near what it was in 2000, but I just don’t see a Steeler blowout here. Too much can go wrong. Zeroue is a fast and shifty back, but the Ravens have the linebackers to stay with him and bring him down. Bettis would be a better option here, where the Steelerws could use a stronger interior line to pound the ball inside on a weak Ravens line. Will Cowher figure this out in time? Will he start doing that right away? I don’t know—he’s smart enough. Suggs is just a rookie, but one thing rookies can do right away is rush the passer. He and Boulware are going to be harassing Maddox all day, with the Steelers so weak at tackle, and Maddox hasn’t shown he works all that great under pressure. As with just about any team, the Steelers will have a mismatch with their receivers. If Maddox can get the ball to them in time, they can make something happen. I think it’s going to be sometimes he will, sometimes he won’t. And that means the Steelers are going to need some gamebreakers, because they won’t be able to sustain a long drive unless they bring Bettis back in. I see big time receiver problems for the Ravens, but then, the Steelers have some of the worst corners in the league so this balances out. With Gildon coming in on the soft side, this leaves sudden starter Haggans having to get by Ogden to get to Lewis on sweeps, and to covering Todd Heap. Ouch, I see that as a bad mismatch. No, Boller isn’t going to win this game, but I think anyone can hand off the ball to a bruising back with inside and outside speed. I think the Ravens will play a low-risk, conservative offense, Boller will hit Heap for a few key drive-extending passes, and Maddox will make some mistakes. Give it to the Ravens, 24-20.

[Chief Rum]

Chicago at SF

Troy - The 49ers still have major questions in the secondary. The Bear dink and dunk passing attack isn't going to exploit them. The Niners offense just has to show up. Niners 24-3.

Chief – Just what we need. A reason for the Niners’ fans to gloat. It’s clear the Bears are not only not prepared for this season, but are in the midst of an internal power struggle between Jauron and Angelo that’s going to spill over onto the field big time. I see Stewart blowing a few plays, as he tends to do, Garcia picking apart a weak Bears’ D, and T.O. generally kicking ass. 31-7, Niners.

[sabotai]

Well so far, neither the Giants or the Rams offense looks amazing. How many fumbles have happened? Warner has caughed it up 4 times, 3 times turning it over. Toomer, Barber and now Collins with a fumble that went to the other team.

So far the best part of the game has been the Giants defense, scoring the only touchdown on the fumble recovery in the Rams endzone. Warner, little Football 101. A safety is 2 points to the other team, a touchdown is 6. You can do the math. :)

[Chief Rum]

Atlanta at Dallas

Troy - The Falcons can't win without Vick. Their secondary sucks. They are overrated. They are matced up against a very underrated ballclub. Believe all of that? The oddmakers do, Dallas is a 2 point favorite. I don't. I think it's a trap, Falcons 24-20.

Chief – Yeah, I am finding it hard to believe the oddsmakers would be this dumb, even if they are right that the Boys aren’t nearly as bad as they seem. Basically, Johnson is everything Vick is, except he can’t run. What that means is that you’ll have a conventional passing attack, with Dunn, Crumpler and Finneran underneaths opening up deep throws to Price. I don’t think the Cowboys have the personnel to stop that. They also don’t have the passrush necessary to rattle Johnson,a lthough they should be somewhat effective against the Falcons’ running game. As for Dallas’s offense, I actually think Carter is better now (not great, but better), and he has a nice set of receivers to throw to. But I am just not a Hambrick fan—I think he’s horrible, and that extended time will show this. The Falcons may have troubles against the Cowboys receivers, but Carter isn’;t good enough to take too advantage of it. And Hambrick is going to get knocked around by Brooking and company. I see the Falcons winning this one going away—32-18.

[sabotai]

dola,

Are they using regulation balls in the Giants -Rams game? 5th fumble for Warner (not turned over though)

[Chief Rum]

Originally posted by sabotai
Well so far, neither the Giants or the Rams offense looks amazing. How many fumbles have happened? Warner has caughed it up 4 times, 3 times turning it over. Toomer, Barber and now Collins with a fumble that went to the other team.

So far the best part of the game has been the Giants defense, scoring the only touchdown on the fumble recovery in the Rams endzone. Warner, little Football 101. A safety is 2 points to the other team, a touchdown is 6. You can do the math. :)

Turnovers are always hard to call, and it's awfully hard for teams to score when they keep coughing it up. Still, if these teams ever get it going, they should put up some points.

CR

[Chief Rum]

Minnesota at Green Bay

Troy - I wrote an article titled "Fearless Football Predictions" Where I predicted that Mark Brunell would be released before the start of camp. I'm 0/1. In the same article I wrote that the Packers would be the league disspointment and the Vikings the leagues sleeper team. What kind of a fearless prediction would it be if I picked the Packers to win this game? Vikings 35-27.

Chief – Troy is going on his gut, but I actually like what he’s thinking about. We have argued about the quality of Green Bay’s defense in other threads, but we both agree they will be worse than last year, and that they will be particularly bad early on in the season. The Vikings’ running game is fraught with uncertainty, but it’s enough for this front seven. Between an okay running game via committee, and the constant threat of Culpepper running (who should go wild against the packers on runs this week), the defense for Green Bay is going to be a shambles by half way through this thing. That’s when the air show begins. No one on the Packers’ roster can handle Moss, and most can’t handle Bates—which is saying something. Playing without Sharper hurts, big time. Moss won’t be able to be double-teamed nearly as effectively, and Culpepper’s scrambling ability will sharply dull the Pack’s pass rush, which will remain solid. The question will be if the Packers can matcht eh Vikes offense. It’s quite possible. Green is going to struggle trying to get through the Vikings line, but he has the speed to hit the outside route before anyone on the Vikings can even dream of getting to him. Claiborne, more of an aggressive hitter, and Henderson, a rookie, will be responsible for trying to keep Franks away from Favre’s roving eye, and the secondary is going to have troubles dealing with the Packers’ three-receiver stes. I see this one being an exciting, offensive game, but the Pack will pull it out with a patented Favre comeback. 38-31, Packers.

[sabotai]

"Turnovers are always hard to call, and it's awfully hard for teams to score when they keep coughing it up. Still, if these teams ever get it going, they should put up some points."

You always expect a turnover or two for each team throughout the entire game, but 3 for both teams and it's not even half time yet. A sloppy sloppy game for both offenses thus far.

I have a feeling that one of the offenses will get it going after the half. Which one is the question.

[korme]

Broncos 20, Bengals 3 at the half :(

same old same old... :mad:

[sabotai]

The real test for the Giants happens now. They've come out and scored 13 points. It's now 23-6. This has been where the Giants defense self-destructed last year. 5 times the Giants lost last year when they had the lead going into the 4th quarter. It's late in the 3rd right now. Now we see if this is a better, more disciplined Giants defense or if it's going to be more of the same from last year.

[Chief Rum]

The way Warner is playing, even the Giants can't blow this one. :(

If he continues playing this way and is allowed to remain in the game, you and I could beat him. By ourselves. I get to rush him.

CR

[The_herd]

Houston and Miami is on here, Andre Johnson looks great. Size, speed, and hands, he looks really smooth with the ball.

Anyway, Miami 20-15, Houston ball at midfield with 10 min to play.

[Chief Rum]

Don't say that! I just dropped Johnson for Boldin in one of my fantasy leagues! :)

CR

[sabotai]

Well, it looks like the Giants D passes the test, barely. No matter how bad the Rams are doing, with Holt, Bruce and Faulk, they're dangerous at anytime (see TD pass earlier). So if they held against the Rams, it looks like they can hold against most teams.

[Chief Rum]

Ouch, Houston 21, Miami 20.

Hey, Troy, maybe we should have broken down this one. :)

CR

[GrantDawg]

So much for Doug Johnson looking good. He needs to get his act together fast.

[TroyF]

Some thoughts on the early games:

Packers/Vikings The Packers defense is as bad as I thought it would be. They are horrible. Barnett overruns everything. Get a team with a real RB and I have no idea how this team is going to stop anybody. I also thought the Vikings would be much improved. The score doesn't give any indication of how much the Vikings dominated that game. They went 8/12 on third downs. They had 4 drives of 10 plays or more. I only wish I'd had a lot of cash to bet. At least in gave me a good start in our top four game pick em pool. Good luck Pack fans.

San Diego/KC - Didn't get a chance to watch a lot of this one. From the plays I did see, the Chargers LB core may be even worse than I suspected. Priest looks back. I wish I had the Faulk pick back QS.

Indy/Cleveland - The Browns D is better than I gave it credit for. I really like some of those young LB's. Had Couch played like Kelly did, the fans would have booed him out of the stadium.

Denver/Cincy - Jake Plummer is horrible. John Kitna is worse. For those who haven't seen the interception by Gold, you need to set your VCR's. This one belongs on any tapes hall of shame. The QB play in this game was something that had to be seen to be believed. Johnson had a long catch, as I suspected he would. The Bengals had no answer for Portis, which I didn't think they would.

Detroit/Arizona - The Cards just don't have any playmakers on defense. When you face an offensive coach and don't have playmakers, you get beat. If the Pack didn't have a couple of good players on their defense, I'd be very tempted to pick Detroit next week. I still might. [/b]

Carolina/Jacksonville - Best coaching performence in week one thus far? Try Jack Del Rio. Called a brilliant game. Even gave his team a chance to win it at the end. He's going to be a great coach.

Buffalo/NE I didn't pick it to go this way, but I'm happy it did. It's good to see Bledsoe beat his former team. He's always been a class act, he deserved a day of redemption. I'm glad he got it.

Pitt/Baltimore - Sorry Chief, but I don't know where you were coming with that pick. A rookie QB on the road in Pittsburgh for his first game? No chance, no way. As for the clippings that this Raven defense is better then than the Super Bowl version? I hope to God this game tables that talk for the rest of the year. They aren't even close to as good. Not even in the same league.

St.Louis/NYG Horrible game. Horrible. I think it actuall brought tears to my eyes. I know little league teams who execute better than either of these teams. I've yet to be impressed beyond belief by Shockey. 3 catches, 36 yards. Todd Heap had 6 catches and 50 yards. . . will anyone ever notice? I love Warner, but he couldn't hold onto double sided tape today. This SHOULD have been one of the most exciting games of the first week. Shame on both of these teams.

Houston/Miami - At least I have been on record as saying I thought all the Dolphin Super Bowl talk was unfounded. For all the bashing Miami will get (and it is all deserved), I hope some people talk about how great the Texans were. Carr is really developing into a nice QB. Andre Johnson looks great as well. This team showed a lot of heart. It get tougher when people are prepared for you Texans. Don't forget that.

TroyF

[sabotai]

"I've yet to be impressed beyond belief by Shockey. 3 catches, 36 yards."

I was impressed with that when Shockey made those catches, he jumped up and celebrated on none of them. A more mature Shockey? Yet to be seen.

The first half of that games was terrible. The second half was much better.

[TroyF]

and now the afternoon games:

Atlanta/Dallas - I'm still wondering why Dallas was a two point favorite. Strange. I'm also wondering why Dan Reeves even bothered to draft Duckett. Think of how good Ashley Lelie would look running routes opposite Peerless now. If you're a Falcon fan, don't think to long, it'll hurt. This just in. . . Quincy Carter still sucks.

Chicago/SF - Ummmm. . . Wow. OK Pack fans, I'll go back on some of what I said about your defense. Nobody can make Kordell Stewart look like an NFL QB. That was frightful. ABC is in a panic now. They'd better have Lisa Guererro in a bikini if they expect anyone to watch the Green Bay/Chicago game in a few weeks.

NO/Seattle - Seattle has a defense? Oh boy. . . Watch out NFC. The Vikings and Seahawks may just step up and challenge the Bucs and Eagles. I believe a very important member of our little community predicted that in the "fearless prediction" thread. Good call QS.

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Picking the games straight up, I'm at 11-3 (I lost the Rams, Patriots, and Texans) going into the Sunday/Monday night matchups. Chief is at 8-6. (Rams, Patriots, Texans, Ravens, Bengals and Cardinals)

Against the spread I'm 8-5-1. Chief comes in at 6-7-1.

There are still two games to go. I know Chief and I differ on tonight's contest. Not sure what Mr. Rum feels about tomorrow, but I have a strong opinion on that game. Overall, considering how hard it is to pick the first week, I think we both did OK. Now that we've seen these teams play once, it'll be interesting to see how next week goes.

TroyF

[Buccaneer]

That was what confused me (Denv/Cincy). You guys, plus the NFL contest here all had Cincy scoring points - as in having a good offense. Where did all of you come up with that?

[Alan T]

Nice job guys. Was a fun read (even if I didnt get to it till I finished watching most of the games :) Cant wait for next week

[Buccaneer]

Catching up on the scores and recaps, I am overjoyed by the continued embarassment of Kordell Stewart but very sadden by the performance of Warner and the Rams OL. I am happy that I can now root for the Steelers (and Maddox) and the Texans win has to be one of the biggest shockers in all of my years of following the NFL.

[TroyF]

Buc,

I had the Bengals scoring 20 points. Last year they finished the season by scoring 20 or more points in 8 of the last 10 games. (and one of the misses was a 15 point output) I figured they'd be able to get Chad Johnson flying by the Denver CB's a couple of times for scores. I knew Kitna would be bad, but I was stunned at just how bad he really was today. I've seen him be bad before, but this took it to an entire new level. The Bengals actually do have some weapons on offense. I think they'll start scoring more as the season progresses.

It's now time to sit back and watch a couple of truly great QB's play the game. (memo to Buc: McNair is actually a pocket passer who can run rather than the other way around. If he does run for a few first downs, don't downgrade him.) :) :)

TroyF

[Buccaneer]

Troy, McNair is cool.

[TroyF]

Just teasing my friend. :)

TroyF

[tucker342]

Interesting read:D

Good to see the Bengels still suck:D

[TroyF]

thoughts on the Sunday night game:

Oakland/Tennessee - This was a horribly officiated game on both sides of the coin. Heinrich really turned the momentum at the end of the first half for the Titans. That's as big of a field goal as you'll ever see in the opening half of play. As has been mentioned in other threads, the announcers made me ill talking about how great Romo is. Fine, he made a couple of plays. How about the ones where the TE was open 25 yards down the field because he couldn't keep up with him? I'm not sure I could stomach a game in which he and Shockey were on the field at the same time. I'm going to watch the Raiders with heightened interest next week. Something isn't right there. The O-Line was beaten badly tonight, even by the Titans backup DT's. The WR were not getting any seperation at all. Rice couldn't seperate from Tank Williams forcing Gannon to throw a perfect ball late in the game. I love the Tank. . . but he's not exactly a pure cover man that can lock up with WR's.

As for the Titans, George continues to run poorly. When Chris Brown gets fully healthy, I think you'll start to see the end of the Eddie George era in Tennessee. The Raiders get a bye week next week (home against the Bengals) to work things out. The Titans have another tough one against Indy.

Some of the big games for next week:

Pittsburght at KC (two of the better performences of the weekend. Should be a fun game)
Denver at San Diego (The Chargers could watch their AFC West hopes get destroyed quickly with a loss here)
San Fran at St. Louis (the Niners first real test, gut check time for the Rams)
Washington at Atlanta (two teams that need to get off to good starts)
Dallas at NY (the return of the Tuna)

TroyF