beating the spread: cthomer's 2003 NFL picks

[cthomer5000]

why this is here: I'm confident I can do at least as well as NFL prognosticator when picking the games each week.

what i'm hoping to learn: Whether following my own betting advice is wise. As of right now I am not actually betting on these games, but by mid-season I'm hoping to determine whether or not I could make out OK by doing so.

method: I'll pick every NFL game each week, but will break them into subcategories. I'd like to analyze my picks to the point where I can pinpoint my predictive strengths and weaknesses.

how I'll break down my picks:

lock: game I am supremely confident about, and would wager double on
upset special: upset I am supremely confident about
top 5: My 'lock' and 'upset special' picks are included in my top 5. These would be the 5 games I am most confident of each week
confident:games outside my top 5 that I am confident about the outcome.
the rest: all games are picked, regardless I will force myself to pick each game.



edit: correct horrible spelling

[cthomer5000]

Week 1: I'm posting these after the games, so you'll have to trust that I selected them before. I used the point spread out of the only thing I had available on sunday morning, my copy of SportsWeekly from the middle of the week. It's possible lines moved before kickoff, so if my spreads are out of date, you'll have to forgive me.


lock: New York Giants over St. Louis Rams (even). I was very, very confident in this one. St. Louis DB's have been horribly injured or are rookies, so I expected the Giants to burn them through the air. The game didn't play out like I expected, but the Giants won handily.

upset special: Colts over Browns (-1). I don't see how a team who cut all 3 starting linebackers can be the favorite here, even at home. I expect the Browns to take a step back this year with all the personnel changes. I thought this game wouldn't even be close, but the Colts pulled it out.

top 5
Remember, the lock and upset special are part of this.

Pittsburgh (-5) over Baltimore. A rookie at QB. This game will not be close. Pitt will win by at least 10.

Packers (-5) over Minnesota. The Pack are re-opening Lambeau, and should be able to pick apart a suspect Vikings D.

Dolphins (-14) over Texans. 14 is a lot to give up, but I think Ricky Williams goes for 150+ and the Texans don't score more than 6 points.

confident
I'm not certain enough to put this in my top 5, but i feel very good about this game:

Carolina (-4) over Jacksonville. Solid defense beats a team under new management. I am much higher on Carolina than a lot of other people. I think with the Vick injury they become serious playoff contenders.


the rest
Atlanta over Dallas (-2)
Jets over Washington (-3)
Denver (-6) over Cincinnati
Buffalo (even) over New England
San Diego over Kansas City (-5)
Detroit (-4) over Arizona
San Francisco (-7) over Chicago
New Orleans over Seattle (-3)
Tennessee (-3) over Oakland
Philly (-3) over Tampa Bay

[cthomer5000]

Not a bad opening week.

locks: 1-0
upset special 1-0
top 5: 3-2
confident picks:0-1
the rest:6-3-1

so if you were betting my picks (and doubling your bet on my lock):

lock: +2 units
upset:+1 unit
top 5: +2 units
confident picks: -1 unit
the rest: +3 units


week 1 record: 9-6-1
<font size=3>

overall record: 9-6-1</font>

[RPI-Fan]

I don't see why you do an upset special. There's no benefit to betting a dog. I'd say just have it be the following categories:

Lock:
Next 4:
Confident:
Not so Sure:

That'd be easier to track, for me at least.

[Godzilla Blitz]

CTHomer: Interesting! You may already know this, but one thing you might consider is that to break even when betting on NFL games with a standard line against the spread, you've got to win 52.4% of the time (basically go 11-10 in your picks). In short, betting $10 wins you $9.09 in most cases, so you've got to win more than you lose to break even money-wise.

Good luck! I'll be reading!

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by RPI-Fan
I don't see why you do an upset special. There's no benefit to betting a dog. I'd say just have it be the following categories:

Lock:
Next 4:
Confident:
Not so Sure:

That'd be easier to track, for me at least.

It's fun to pick an upset. That's why I'm doing it.

plus, I'm having no problem tracking it. :p

[RPI-Fan]

I'm just a bit confused when you say...

[quote]lock: +2 units
upset:+1 unit
top 5: +2 units
confident picks: -1 unit
the rest: +3 units[quote]

That looks, to me, like you're +7 units. Is that correct, or no?

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by RPI-Fan
I'm just a bit confused when you say...

[quote]lock: +2 units
upset:+1 unit
top 5: +2 units
confident picks: -1 unit
the rest: +3 units[quote]

That looks, to me, like you're +7 units. Is that correct, or no?

i'm not. the top 5 includes both the upset and lock selections. Assuming you made equal bets on all games (except for the lock), and were getting paid 1:1, I would be up a total of 4 units.

[cthomer5000]

<font size=3>Week 2 Picks</font>

lock

Buffalo Bills (-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars
After week 1, Buffalo looks like a legitemate Super Bowl contender, and should battle Miami down the stretch for the AFC East title. I expect Bledsoe and Eric Moulds to have big days, and Travis Henry will do well enough to keep things balanced. This could be a close first half, but Buffalo will pull away. Bills win 27-13.


upset special

Cleveland Browns over Baltimore Ravens (-3)
The Browns played a close game with what I believe will turn out to be a very solid (read: playoff) team in Indianapolis. I expect the Browns to continue the growing pains with the new LB's, but luckily the Raven offense isn't much to worry about. If Boller weren't starting this game I might pick Baltimore. I think Cleveland will have a tough time running, but Holcomb will do enough to win the game. Cleveland wins 17-10.

the next 3

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) over Detroit Lions
Favre shows he's not dead against a suspect Lions secondary. If Blake throws for 300+, there is no way Favre won't succeed. Green Bay covers the spread easily, 31-17

New Orleans Saints (-8) over Houston Texans
Houston comes back down to earth and cannot score enough points to hang with the Saints offense. Saints win 20-6.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) over Washington Redskins
Doug Johnson holds things together, and Dunn/Duckett gash a suspect defensive line for big yardage. Falcons win 30-20.

confident

Minnesota Vikings (-8.5) over Chicago Bears
I'd bet against Kordell all season long.

Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) over Arizona Cardinals
I don't have all that much faith in Seattle, but Arizona might just be the worst team in football. Sean Alexander has a very big day. Seattle wins 27-10.

the rest

New York Giants (-7.5) over Dallas Cowboys
This line is a bit high, and worries me. I think the Giants will definitely win, but I'm not certain they'll cover the spread.

Oakland Raiders (-12) over Cincinnati Bengals
same as above.

San Diego Chargers over Denver Broncos (-3)
Jake Plummer continues to establish himself as the new Vinny Testeverde, and the Chargers ground game takes over.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) over New England
Both teams need to win really bad. I expect Philly to turn in an excellent offensive performance - and they'll need it with the banged up defense.

Miami Dolphins (-3) over N.Y. Jets
The Jets offense was fucking garbage last week. The marriage of Paul Hackett and Vinny T. will ensure that is again the case.

Indianapolis Colts (-2) over Tennessee Titans
A Vanderjagt field goal wins it in the 4th quarter again.

San Francisco 49ers over St. Louis Rams (-3)
Garcia attacks a very weak Rams secondary, and win a high scoring shoot-out.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Kansas City Cheifs (-3)
The Kansas City defense shows it's not quite ready for elite status.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9) over Carolina Panthers
Tampa has "that look." I think they make another statement.

[cthomer5000]

After a great set of 1 PM games, I took only 1 of 5 4pm games... I need both my Sunday and Monday night picks to come out of this week with a winning record.

[cthomer5000]

[b]<font size=3>Week 2 Review</font>

lock

Buffalo Bills (-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars

I was right on about this one. Buffalo looked impressive, and rolled.

upset special

Cleveland Browns over Baltimore Ravens (-3)

Just how wrong did Jamal Lewis make me?

the next 3

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) over Detroit Lions

They had to win this, and did.

New Orleans Saints (-8) over Houston Texans

followed my script perfectly.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) over Washington Redskins

Atlanta completey collapsed after a 17-0 lead.

confident

Minnesota Vikings (-8.5) over Chicago Bears

Thank you Kordell!

Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) over Arizona Cardinals
right.

the rest

New York Giants (-7.5) over Dallas Cowboys
wrong

Oakland Raiders (-12) over Cincinnati Bengals
couldn't cover the 12.

San Diego Chargers over Denver Broncos (-3)
the chargers are looking suspect.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) over New England

what's wrong in the city of brotherly love?

Miami Dolphins (-3) over N.Y. Jets
as a Jet fan, it hurt to be right about this one.

Indianapolis Colts (-2) over Tennessee Titans
Indy looking like they are for real.


San Francisco 49ers over St. Louis Rams (-3)
at least it was a push

Pittsburgh Steelers over Kansas City Cheifs (-3)
ugh.



Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9) over Carolina Panthers

an outstanding game to watch. too bad the Panthers spoiled my pick.

[cthomer5000]

Standings after week 2:

locks: 2-0
upsets:1-1
next 3:3-3
the rest:10-9-2


Week 3 Selections

lock
Minnesota (-3.5) over Detroit

upset
Buffalo over Miami (-3)

the next 3
Pittsburgh (-4.5) over Cincinnati
Tampa Bay (-4) over Atlanta
Green Bay (-7.5) over Arizona

the rest
New York Giants over Washington (-2.5)
Jets over Patriots (-6.5)
Indy Colts (-7.5) over Jacksonville
Tennessee Titans (-4.5) over New Orleans
Kansas City (-7.5) over Houston
Seattle (-3) over St. Louis
San Diego over Baltimore (-1)
San Francisco (-7) over Cleveland
Oakland over Denver (-5.5)

[cthomer5000]

<font size=3>Week 3 Wrap-Up</font>

My observations so far:
I need to either force my girlfriend to get internet access, or remember to make my selections before the end of the workday on Friday. That way I can actually post my picks before the games are played.
I need to stop picking the Chargers.
Green Bay might be in serious trouble.
I'm 3-0 on my lock picks, which is a good sign.
I seem to be pretty decent at identifying my top 5 picks, as I'm doing better among those than I am overall.


Week 3 Results
lock: 1-0
upset: 0-1
the next 3: 2-1
the rest: 4-5

Year-to-date standings

locks: 3-0
upsets: 1-2
the next 3: 5-4
the rest: 14-15-2
overall: 23-21-2

[DolphinFan1]

Originally posted by cthomer5000
<font size=3>Week 3 Wrap-Up</font>

My observations so far:
I need to either force my girlfriend to get internet access, or remember to make my selections before the end of the workday on Friday. That way I can actually post my picks before the games are played.
I need to stop picking the Chargers.
Green Bay might be in serious trouble.
I'm 3-0 on my lock picks, which is a good sign.
I seem to be pretty decent at identifying my top 5 picks, as I'm doing better among those than I am overall.


Week 3 Results
lock: 1-0
upset: 0-1
the next 3: 2-1
the rest: 4-5

Year-to-date standings

locks: 3-0
upsets: 1-2
the next 3: 5-4
the rest: 14-15-2
overall: 23-21-2

FWIW: I was 11-3 vs. the spread this week in my pool at work and I still lost to a guy who was 13-1. My 3 losses: Arizona, Cleveland and the Giants.

I picked my Dolphins to win. ANd they did. :D

[Desnudo]

Interesting read, but the thing to consider is that betting gets considerably harder in the second half of the season as bookies get the line down.

So you might wipe the floor in the 1st half and then lose your shirt in the second when it's real money on the line. In either case, I'll be reading.

[cthomer5000]

<font size=3>Week 4 Picks</font>

LOCK 3-0 this season
*Green Bay Packers (-4) over Chicago Bears
For the second time this season we have Green Bay coming off a bad loss and facing a terrible team to help right things. Chicago looks terrible, and it won't be long before the only topic is "when will Dick Jauron be fired?" If the Packers lose this game, then things are really, really bad in Green Bay.


UPSET 1-2 this season
*San Francisco over Minnesota Vikings (-3)
I think the 49ers will be fired up to rebound from the debacle against Cleveland. The 49ers have been doing a pretty good job defending the run, so they'll contain Moe Williams and friends. Two evenly matched teams, so i'll take Garcia and Owens over a banged up Randy Moss and Gus Frerotte.


THE NEXT 3 5-4 this season
*Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) over New Orleans Saints
The Colts are looking "pretty good" on both sides of the ball, but outstanding in neither. Peyton Manning's stats are pretty pedestrian, as is the Colts run game. The offense hasn't been doing all that well, but everyone overlooks this stuff when a team is 3-0. I beleive in this team, and I think they're going to get better each week.

*Kansas City Chiefs (-3) over Baltimore Ravens
The Chiefs are the trendy pick for the super bowl, and I'm completely on that bandwagon. I think a combination of a top 5 unit (offense) coupled with a slightly above average counterpart (defense in this case) is good enough to win it all. I think both teams will run successfully on each other, but I have much more confidence in Trent Green than I do in Kyle Boller/Chris Redman. Baltimore has played better than I expected, but I don't see them defeating K.C. this week.

*Washington Redskins (-3) over New England Patriots
Washington is a surprisingly good all-around team, and have been running the ball better than most people realize. If Spurrier can control himself enough to call a balanced game, the Redskins will overpower a banged up New England defense.

THE REST
*Dallas over New York Jets (-3)
the Jets can't run, and Dallas defends the run well. This is the formula that has made the Jets 0-3. An 0-4 record and a bye week will provide plenty of time for the inner turmoil to brew. By the time the Jets kickoff against Buffalo in 2 weeks, the season will be over.

*Eagles over Bills (-3)
Eagles can run well, if Andy Reid will just call some run plays. Buffalo is running the ball terribly, something that has been strangely overlooked in the first 3 weeks.

*Steelers (-3) over Titans
Steelers are running a tad better, and are an incredible passing attack when in rhythm.

*Bengals over Browns (-4.5)
Tim Couch = Bengals win.

*Panthers (-6) over Falcons
EDIT: Gut feeling has taken over at 5:30 PM on Friday. I now think Carolina will win this handily. I have been saying all off-season I thought they would be competing for a playoff spot in Week 17. The Falcons won't be able to run on them, and Doug Johnson will again get them in trouble.

original thoughts:
I initially liked the Panthers to win, but I think Atlanta will cover the spread (or pull an upset). This would truly define upset, as I can't see a single area in which Atlanta has an advantage over Carolina.

*Rams (-10.5) over Cardinals
They'll look great at home against a terrible team.

*Texans over Jaguars (-3)
EDIT: I had picked the Jags. Now at 5.25 on friday I hear Lewtwich is starting. The Texans will win this one.

my original description: Fred Taylor has been running very well. The Texans d-line is now really thin, so I see Taylor going over 100 and a Jaguar victory.


*Raiders (-7) over Chargers
8 men in the box against L.T. will completely shut down the Charger offense. Who are the Chargers going to throw to?

*Lions (-12) over Broncos
Too high a spread for a Broncos team that has 3 big name players banged up, their QB and top 2 running backs.

[cthomer5000]

random bonus predictions:

AFC title game: Colts at Chiefs

NFC title game: Giants at Buccaneers

[RPI-Fan]

Nice week cthomer...

Before the Monday nite game, and assuming tonite's game holds, you're, what, 9-3-1. Nice, solid week.

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by RPI-Fan
Nice week cthomer...

Before the Monday nite game, and assuming tonite's game holds, you're, what, 9-3-1. Nice, solid week.

Yeah, I love getting off to a great start with the 1pm games, I think i was like 6-1 by the time the late games kicked off. This will pan out to be my best week so far no matter what.

So far my upset picks have completely sucked, so maybe you were right in questioning the worthiness of it as a category. ;)

[cthomer5000]

Week 3 Wrap-Up

<font size=3>Week 3 overall: 10-3-1</font>
Lock: 1-0
Upset: 0-1
Next 3: 2-0-1
the rest: 7-2

Aside from being dead wrong about the Vikings-49ers game, I felt like I picked a pretty good week. Pittsburgh was in their game before being blown out, and the Raiders won but failed to cover the spread. That Redksins prevent defense did piss me off though, I thought I had that one in the bank.

Season Standings
Overall: 33-24-3
Lock: 4-0
Upset: 1-3
Next 3: 7-4-1
the rest: 21-17-2

My locks have been just that, and the 4-0 has been a pretty good indicator that I can identify my strongest pick - none of those games have been a real contest.

My upset picks are only upsetting my stomach, and I was so thoroughly wrong about the Vikings-49ers game that I'll need to reevaluate my basis for selecting those games.

The next 3 have been pretty solid as well, and things naturally taper off at the bottom.

Assuming I'd been betting my Top 5 picks (lock, upset, next 3), I'd be sitting at 12-7-1... with roughly $1.34 for every dollar I had started with (betting 2 units on my lock and 1 on everything else).

The high-roller that I am, I did actually place my first real money bet of the season last night, pulling in a cool $14.54 on the Packers (my lock of the week). Thank you Ahman Green. Thank you even more Kordell Stewart and John Shoop.

I'm still undecided about taking the plunge on betting 5 games a week, but I'm more inclined than I was at the season's start.

[cthomer5000]

<font size=3>Week 5 Picks</font>

LOCK 4-0 this season

*Minnesota Vikings (-5) over Atlanta Falcons
This game gets a little dicier with Gus Frerotte at QB, but obviously he looked outstanding last week. The real reason I think Minnesota will win this game is their ability to run the football, it's being completely overlooked right now. Minnesota will be able to run against a sub-par Falcons defense, keeping the pressure off Gus Frerotte. The Falcons as a team are also very banged-up right now. I just don't see how they'll score the points needed to win this one.


UPSET 1-3 this season
*San Diego Chargers over Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
My already suspect upset picks will again be tested this week, as two 0-4 teams go head-to-head. San Diego showed some real signs of life last week, and I expect that will carry over. On top of that I don't think betting against a rookie QB is ever a bad idea, and I've got 3 points to top it all off. I really like the Chargers here.


THE NEXT 3 7-4-1 this season
*Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) over Arizona Cardinals
I really hate getting this game at 7.5 versus 7 points, and If I had jumped on it earlier in the week, it would have still been 7. Points aside, all signs lead to Dallas being able to run the ball very successfully against a completely woeful Arizona defense. Quincy Carter should also have all day to throw against a defensive line that has recorded one sack this season. Parcells now has Dallas looking good enough that a wild card spot isn't completely out of the question - even in the surprisingly tough NFC East. My biggest concern is Arizona getting close with a garbage-time touchdown.

*Carolina Panthers (-7) over New Orleans Saints
7 is a bit high for a team with a stone-age offense, but I like the Panthers on brute strength here. New Orleans' injruy list is unbelievable long and they have had trouble stopping the run. Carolina is for real, and this is the type of game they won't let catch them by surprise.

*Oakland Raiders (-4.5) over Chicago Bears
A desperate Raiders team will take this game from a Bears team that has 2-14 written all over it. The Bears defense has been unbelievably bad, and hopefully Oakland will keep their offense balanced to take advantage of the poor run defense.

the rest 21-17-2 this season

*Tennessee Titans (-1.5) over New England Patriots
I'll ignore the fact that the Titans cannot run the ball, and rely on Steve McNair to win this one. New England is again reeling.

*Cincinnati Bengals over Buffalo Bills (-8.5)
This was virtually a tie with San Diego as my upset pick. In fact the more I think about this the more I wished I had taken Cincy. The Bills cannot run the football, all their RB's are injured, and 8.5 points is a lot to give against a competitve Bengals team. Kitna will have another solid day, and Marvin Lewis will get another win.

*New York Giants (even) over Miami Dolphins
I see potential for greatness in the Giants offense, and this is the week I see it coming together (hopefully).

*Green Bay Packers (-1.5) over Seattle Seahawks
Seattle has been beating up on suspect competition, as has Green Bay. Give me the Packers and Ahman Green at home.

*Kansas City Chiefs (-3) over Denver Broncos
If Clinton Portis was completely healthy, Denver would be my pick. The Chiefs currently have that super bowl look.

*Washington Redskins over Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)
The Eagles secondary is banged up, and Washington can pass and run. Spurrier has really done a good job at balancing the offense. The Eagles may gut this one out, but my gut says 5.5 points are too many to give.

*Detroit Lions over San Francisco 49ers (-8)
San Francisco is in turmoil, and has potential to be a team that completely collapses before the mid-point of the season. The same moronic fans that called for Mariucci's firing will now wonder what the hell they were thinking.

*Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) over Cleveland Browns
The Steelers run, run, pass over the Browns. Butch Davis makes a note to himself : Do not cut all starting linebackers during any one off-season.

*Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) over Indianapolis Colts
Evenly matched teams, so I'll take the healthy one at home. Just playing this one close will really help Indy's confidence. They will be a force in the AFC, and I expect both these teams to be in their conference title games.

[cthomer5000]

Week 5 Wrap-Up

<font size=3>Week 5 overall: 6-8</font>
Lock: 1-0
Upset: 0-1
Next 3: 1-2
the rest: 4-5

Not the greatest of weeks. On the bright side, I'm now 5-0 on my lock picks. I look to keep that streak going as long as possible.

Season Standings
Overall: 39-32-3
Lock: 5-0
Upset: 1-4
Next 3: 8-6-1
the rest: 25-22-2

[cthomer5000]

<font size=3>Week 6 Picks</font>

LOCK 5-0 this season

*Miami Dolphins (-3) over Jacksonville Jaguars
Beware the trap game Miami! To me, 3 points is bargain against a team starting a rookie QB, I'm sure history would back me up. I expect this game to be a lot like last weeks Dolphins-Giants. Williams may not have great success running, but I bet he'll keep the defense honest while racking up 60+ yards. I say the Dolphins win by 10.


UPSET 1-4 this season
*New York Giants over New England Patriots (-3)
I really think the Giants have been under-achieveing. I hope I don't soon find out that I just think they're better than they are.


THE NEXT 3 8-6-1 this season
*Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) over Washington Redskins
A very pissed off Tampa team will crush Washington. I expect Ramsey to get hit a lot and throw 3 interceptions.


*Chicago Bears over New Orleans Saints (-6)
6 is took many points to spot a shitty Saints team. They have no one healthy on defense, and no one playing well on offense. The Bears may certainly lose, but they'll keep it close enough.


*Kansas City Chiefs over Green Bay Packers (-1)
These teams will both run on each other, and do it well. With the running games basically evening out, I think Kansas City will go up a couple of scores by the 2nd or 3rd quarter and take Green Bay out of their game plan. I'm giving K.C. the edge on special teams and a better overall offense.


the rest 25-22-2 this season

*Oakland Raiders over Cleveland Browns (-3)
I still think the Browns suck, and the Raiders will win this out of sheer necessity.

*Indianapolis Colts (-6) over Carolina Panthers
I'm a huge fan of both of these teams, but I think Indy will get up by 14 points early and take Carolina out of their game plan.

*Houston Texans over Tennessee Titans (-10)
When Houston has had 2 weeks to prepare, i think 10 points is too many to ignore. Whether they win or not, expect this one to be very close.

*Philadelphia Eagles (even) over Dallas Cowboys
Eagles win a tough, low-scoring game. The Cowboys are better than expected, but probably not good enough to win this game yet.

*New York Jets over Buffalo Bills (-3)
I'll take the home underdog that is insanely desperate for a win. Santana Moss has a big game.

*Pittsburgh Steelers over Denver Broncos (-7)
Pitt rebounds, while Plummer stinks it up.

*Arizona Cardinals over Baltimore Ravens (-6)
The Cardinals will score some late points to make it close. The Ravens simply lake the ability to pass regularly.

*San Francisco 49ers over Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
I don't think Seattle is that good, and I don't think San Fran is that bad.

*Atlanta Falcons over St. Louis Rams (-11)
11 points is way too many for a so-so Rams squad.

[RPI-Fan]

Update?

[cthomer5000]

leavign room to enter my wrap-up for week 6

[cthomer5000]

Week 7 Picks

Don't have the time to go into detail, but I did put thought into these picks. Hoping to go 7-0 with my lock picks this week.

Lock 6-0 this season
*Jets (-3) over Texans
Jets d-line will be all over Carr. An early lead will seal the deal.

Upset
*Patriots over Dolphins (-5.5)
Evenly matched teams, I think 5.5 is too many points.

the next 3
*Cowboys (-3) over Lions
Parcells won't let them lose this type of game.

*Buccs (-3.5) over 49ers
two teams headed in opposite directions. 49ers o-line woes continue

*Saints (-1.5) over Falcons
Kittner = loss

the rest
*Eagles over Giants (-3)
Eagles will run over the Giants

*Vikings (-1.5) over Broncos
Vikings D + Beurlien = Vikings win

*Packers over Rams (-4)
Packers need to run, run, run

*Chargers over Browns (-6)
Chargers will run, run, run to victory

*Ravens (-2) over Bengals
Ravens will run over Bengals

*Panthers (-1.5) over Titans
Titans cannot run the ball. Panthers squeak by

*Bills (-3) over Redskins
Only because they're at home

*Seahawks (-11) over Bears
this should get ugly

*Chiefs (-3.5) over Oakland
Cheifs continue to roll.

[cthomer5000]

c

[cthomer5000]

Week 8 Picks


Lock 7-0 this season
*Tennessee (-5) over Jacksonville


Upset
* Jets over Eagles (-3)


the next 3
*Miami (-3) over San Diego

*New England (-5) over Cleveland

*Chicago (-3) over Detroit

the rest
*Carolina over New Orleans (-2)
*Tampa Bay (-6) over Dallas
* Baltimore (-2.5) over Denver
*Minnesota (-6.5) over Giants
*Cincinnati over Seattle (-3)
*Pittsburgh (-1) over St. Louis
*Kansas City (-7) over Buffalo
*San Fran (-7) over Arizona
*Indy (-13.5) over Houston