Anyone have advice for me on a fantasy trade?

[TroyF]

Background:

Very intense keeper league. 12 teams. I'm in first place in my division and am leading the league in total points.

6 points for passing TD
6 points for rushing TD
10 yards passing=1 point
rushing/receiving yardage 1 point for every 6 yards (it's actually a multiplier, but that's about as close as I can make it)

Here is my current roster of skill position guys (my defense is great and will not be impacted by this trade)

QB Matt Hasselback
QB Tim Couch
QB Aaron Brooks

RB Clinton Portis
RB T. J. Duckett
RB Michael Pittman

TE Dallas Clark

WR Randy Moss
WR Terrell Owens
WR Chad Johnson
WR Isaac Bruce
WR Dante Stallworth
WR Reggie Wayne
WR Nate Burlson

I have a lot of leeway in who to start. I can go 1 RB/4 WR, 2RB/3WR, 2RB/1TE/2WR, 1RB/2TE/2WR

Here is the trade offer: Chad Johnson and my #1 pick next year for Steve McNair.

I have plenty of salary cap room and will need it as McNair is signed to around a 5 million dollar a year contract, where Johnson is under 2 million for three more years.

You guys know what I think of McNair. I think Johnson is the best young WR in the game. My biggest concern in this whole thing is Owens. Can I count on 2 or 3 years of high production from him? I'm about ready to give up on Stallworth. Bruce is nearing the end. (though still very productive right now)

Any thoughts?

TroyF

[TLK]

I'm going say no. McNair is playing as good as he's gonna play. In a keeper league, I don't think I'd do Johnson for McNair straight up.

[WSUCougar]

I wouldn't do it, Troy. If anything, I'd be looking for RB depth or another TE. As it is, you're in first place, so why mess with success? McNair doesn't boost your team enough to justify giving up a youthful stud WR and a #1 pick.

[Travis]

Personally, I'd say if you can have Moss, Johnson, Stallworth and Wayne locked up, keep them unless you're getting a replacement. As you say, Bruce hasn't got many years left in him, and your concern for TO may be very warranted after this season (does he get the fat contract, then sit on it?).

Wayne COULD be the heir in Indy, and Stallworth has all the tools to rebound from this season. Those two are both the big MAYBE factors while Johnson is looking better than Stallworth did last year. Out of those 3, you'll always have at least 1 to start opposite Moss without fear, and hopefully all 3 will pan out.

At QB, who knows if Couch will land on his feet running in a new location next year, while both Hass and Brooks are capable of putting up huge numbers any given week. The positive is that Hass usually isn't bombing out, and seems to be getting at least decent consistant points. The flip side, how many more years does McNair have? He's been awesome this year, has always been gutsy, but I for one wonder if this is 'his' year (no injuries) and then it'll be back to same old same old come next season, followed by a retirement in the not too distant future.

Long story short, I wouldn't do it. Even without the pick being a part of it.

[scooper]

Johnson's going to be money for a long time. He'll be even better when Palmer is ready to start. Hold onto him.

[TroyF]

thanks guys. That was my original thought too. McNair would actually be a pretty big upgrade in terms of QB points. (about 38-25 currently) Still, Johnson is going to be great and that WR core is winning me games right now. I sure do love McNair though. :)

TroyF

[IMetTrentGreen]

just to buck the trend, i'd do it. it's not like wr's don't come along every year. if hasslebeck were to get hurt, you'd have crap at qb

and in a 12 team league, that #1 pick won't be missed too much. there are tons of good recievers around late in the first round (in real life) and beyond

and owens will start catching passes again. there is a lot going on with that team that is dragging his numbers down, but he won't be back at that team next year. wherever he goes is going to make damn sure he's a #1 guy next year. because they are goign to pay out the ass for him, and he'll demand it

[TroyF]

IMTG,

That's actually the viewpoint I figured would be had by more people on the forum. The offer is on the table until next week, so I have some time to figure it out.

TroyF

[Tasan]

I'd say do it too. McNair is special and should be for a couple more seasons at least. WRs tend to vary year to year, and its really easy to find someone who's doing real good that nobody has, generally speaking. For example, who had Boldin at the start of the season? Probably nobody, but he's worth a 3rd or maybe 2nd spot on most rosters.

[TroyF]

Originally posted by Tasan
I'd say do it too. McNair is special and should be for a couple more seasons at least. WRs tend to vary year to year, and its really easy to find someone who's doing real good that nobody has, generally speaking. For example, who had Boldin at the start of the season? Probably nobody, but he's worth a 3rd or maybe 2nd spot on most rosters.

In our league Boldin was picked in the 4th round of the draft. (we have a full 7 round draft every year)

Still, I understand your point. :)

TroyF

[ISiddiqui]

I think it depends on how durable you consider Hasselback to be :D. Personally I wouldn't do it. I think Johnson will be a very good WR in the future. And if you can't start 2 QBs, having both McNair and Hasselback on your team would be a waste.

[thesloppy]

Personally, I'd bite on McNair's production over Johnson's potential in a heartbeat...especially considering the increased scoring for a QB. The obvious sticking point is the #1 pick.

Am I too understand that you can basically keep whomever you can afford, and then draft for seven rounds preceeding each season? If that is the case, it doesn't necessarily sound as damaging, since a 1st rounder in your league would be equivalent to something like a 10th rounder in a non-keeper league. In that situation I'd probably still jump on it.

I agree wholeheartedly that Jonhson looks like he is a great receiver, but the jury is still out on Carson Palmer, and if he comes out struggling for a year (or more), you'll be left with just another Bengal. Likewise, if Dillon ever stops talking about getting out of cincinnati, and actually pulls the trigger, the situation could be troublesome.

Although others say McNair is playing the best he can right now, and I agree, he's been nothing short of consistent and durable over the last couple years. Although he always seems to be nursing some random injury, it doesn't seem to take away from his ability to throw plenty of long balls. Also, while Johnson's co-players will hope to improve next season, there's still plenty of room for growth in Tennessee's skill players too next year...Eddie George (or some other FA back) has no place to go but up, and their receiving core seems to have 3 youngsters with a lot of potential, all of which might help to further improve McNair's play next year.

Of course I'm speaking with a little bit of bias and wishful thinking, as I'm on the opposite side of this EXACT trade (minus the pick) in my league, and I'm going to turn it down with nary a thought. :)

[TroyF]

In our league, you keep EVERYONE. The rookie draft is just that, for rookies only. There is a free agent round where you lose picks to sign players (you can match if you choose to do so)

2 years ago, I had the #8 and #10 pick in the first round. I took Clinton Portis and Roy Williams. This year the 10th and 12th pick in this league was Kyle Boller and Rex Grossman.

TroyF

[HornedFrog Purple]

Sorry (McNair) Troy (McNair), I (McNair) will (McNair) have (McNair) to (McNair) sleep (McNair) on (McNair) this (McNair) before (McNair) I (McNair) could (McNair) give (McNair) a (McNair) fair (McNair) assessment (McNair).

[IMetTrentGreen]

with further assessment, do it. when you can get a guy like mcnair, who puts up numbers every week, take him. teams could figure out johnson next week. wrs, especially on bad teams, are easy to defend, once they become a priority to a defense, which johnson is becoming

mcnair rocks regardless. take him

[thesloppy]

Originally posted by TroyF
In our league, you keep EVERYONE. The rookie draft is just that, for rookies only. There is a free agent round where you lose picks to sign players (you can match if you choose to do so)


Given that information, and assuming that your initial draft position will be the opposite of your finishing place, I'd put myself firmly in the McNair camp. Since you'll likely be picking after the 10th pick, your first pick will most likely be absent of any absolute locks anyways.

Another thing to consider is that due to your league's flexible rosters, a hole at WR might be relatively easy to fill, whille having 2 of top-tier QBs is quite a sexurity blanket. Whoever you're trading with will probably have a much harder time replacing McNair's points than you will Johnson's....plus, I always enjoy thinning the opposition's QB roster :p

[Samdari]

I would lean towards no myself here Troy. I guess it comes down to how bad you want to win it this year. Knowing how good your defense is, I think that team has to become the overwhelming favorite with McNair at the helm - given this league's emphasis on passing yards, I see him finishing #1 at QB.

Your team probably does become better this year via that trade, but at a steep price in terms of the future. In the 2005 season, I see only Burleson as being a real contributor at WR among your 'backups' For 'real' teams, I have long been a proponent that any deal which propels a team to the title is worth it, in fantasy teams, that's up to the owner.

I think everyone agrees on the effects of this deal, leaving you to answer the questions:

(a) How much does this improve your chances to win (you have a real shot without it).

(b) How much are you willing to pay for that improvement.

[IMetTrentGreen]

the price is hardly steep. in the nfl, you always take production over potential

i admit i've never seen johnson play, so i don't know if he's good, or just putting up numbers, but you should always take a guy who is a proven performer week in and week out, as those guys are very rare

and moss owens and bruce is golden for at least 2-3 more years, until bruce breaks down. but by then he'll have plenty of receivers anyway

ps- want a sleeper wr? try bj johnson. tons of talent which is of course wasted at texas. he'll be a good reciever in the nfl

[Samdari]

Umm, Chad Johnson is arguably the 4th most productive WR right now. That plus a first rounder IS a steep price. He is a proven performer - much more valuable than Bruce at this point.

[IMetTrentGreen]

a first roudner IN THE NFL is a steep price. not in a 12 man keeper league. and, he's a wr

like i said, i've never actually seen johnson play. he could be that good, or, he could be a young guy that is putting up numbers because defenses haven't caught on to him yet. regardless, when you get a guy like mcnair, you can't turn it down

this coming year you have guys like roy and reggie williams, rashaun woods, and so on coming out, not to mention a ton of guys i have never heard of who will come on, like every year. wr is a deep position, especially in a 12 man league. there aren't 12 great qb's in this league. he has the chance at one, and another who is coming on in hasslebeck. i say, do it, you already have 3 great recievers. as soon as tj duckett starts getting the ball, which is happening, 3 guys like troy has catching the ball will be luxury

i've only given out fantasy advice two other times. once was to tell someone not to take thomas jones, and the other was to pick up rich harden for a few weeks, then trade him. actually, i think they were both to bigdawgwhatever

[ISiddiqui]

he could be a young guy that is putting up numbers because defenses haven't caught on to him yet.

He had a good year last year as well (though not great) in his second year in the league. So it isn't like he's brand new to defenders.

[Samdari]

But, ISiddiqui, he actually came on around midseason last year. He had 1100+ yards and 5 TDs for the year, which actually puts him in the top 15 WR but 700+ yards and 4 TDs were in his last 8 games. If you look at the second half of last year, and this year combined, he is in the top 3 or 4 most productive WR over that stretch. And you are right about one thing, defensive coaches have had to game plan against him all year, his success this year caught none of them by surprise.

[TroyF]

Well, things are looking good that I'll be able to work something out without me giving up Chad Johnson. It looks like he might bite on a deal for 2 future #1 picks and a lesser player. (someone like Reche Caldwell. In truth, I'd probably give him the two #1's and Donte Stallworth if he pushed. I really don't care about the #1's if I can get McNair because I have other players to deal for a #1 if I really want one later on. Stallworth has upside, but with Johnson, Moss, Owens, Bruce, Burleson. . . it's not like I need to concern myself with Donte.

TroyF

[TroyF]

Finally pulled the trigger on a trade for McNair.

I gave up 1, 2 and 3 round picks this year and another number 1 next year.

I'm tight against the cap and have a ton of young stars anyway, I really didn't need the picks.

Why do I feel like Mike Ditka?

TroyF