An FOF4 Scouting Study

[cuervo72]

This was posted in my dynasty thread, but I though I'd share it here. After year one of an OPU (so all players are in their 2nd year and are young), I changed scouts. My first scout served as an interesting control, in that he was rated average at everything except for DB's, where he was EX. My new scout is VG with young talent, DL and DB, G with Kickers, and average for everything else. Here is the analysis I posted in the dynasty:


Player # Pos Exp C1 F1 C2 F2 CD FD Scout Estimate Cntrct
Kenworthy, Brett 3 QB 2 21 56 21 54 0 -2 AV 2 yrs. 1970
Frimodt, Edward 16 QB 2 10 47 10 45 0 -2 AV 2 yrs. 1970
Bensen, Bill 7 QB 2 12 39 11 37 -1 -2 AV 2 yrs. 1970
Elliott, Luther 35 RB 2 31 41 31 40 0 -1 AV 4 yrs. 1970
Copeland, Peter 46 RB 2 26 41 26 41 0 0 AV 1 yr. 1970
Clausen, Donald 40 RB 2 24 40 23 39 -1 -1 AV 1 yr. 1970
Frederick, Fred 34 RB 2 14 30 14 30 0 0 AV --- 1970
Bensen, Sammie 38 FB 2 22 45 21 44 -1 -1 AV 1 yr. 1970
Curtis, Stanley 23 FB 2 19 40 19 39 0 -1 AV --- 1970
Nolen, Cole 80 TE 2 22 48 22 47 0 -1 AV 2 yrs. 1970
Rasmussen, Brock 89 TE 2 23 40 23 40 0 0 AV 1 yr. 1970
Harvey, Herman 87 TE 2 13 35 13 35 0 0 AV --- 1970
Aberdeen, Andrew 88 FL 2 27 48 27 47 0 -1 AV 4 yrs. 1970
Singletary, Bart 85 FL 2 19 40 18 39 -1 -1 AV --- 1970
Fuller, Brian 84 FL 2 17 39 17 39 0 0 AV 1 yr. 1970
Henderson, Ted 82 SE 2 26 47 26 47 0 0 AV 2 yrs. 1970
Farley, Dave 86 SE 2 22 43 22 42 0 -1 AV 2 yrs. 1970
Poulsen, Blake 83 SE 2 19 42 19 41 0 -1 AV 1 yr. 1970
Mathews, Darryl 74 LT 2 13 42 13 41 0 -1 AV 2 yrs. 1970
Newhart, Alonzo 62 LT 2 17 35 17 35 0 0 AV --- 1970
Blackshear, Harvey 63 LG 2 8 38 8 35 0 -3 AV 2 yrs. 1970
Thompson, Austin 75 LG 2 20 33 19 32 -1 -1 AV 2 yrs. 1970
Downs, Archie 57 C 2 27 54 27 53 0 -1 AV 1 yr. 1970
Linder, Dan 51 C 2 16 48 15 46 -1 -2 AV 1 yr. 1970
Flutie, C.J. 68 RG 2 20 51 20 49 0 -2 AV 1 yr. 1970
Meyer, Jeffrey 78 RT 2 25 57 25 55 0 -2 AV 3 yrs. 1970
Haag, Malcolm 61 RT 2 10 39 10 38 0 -1 AV 1 yr. 1970
Shockley, Hugh 13 P 2 34 49 33 45 -1 -4 G 1 yr. 1970
Sanderson, Butch 2 K 2 28 62 28 61 0 -1 G --- 1970
Berry, Jeffrey 94 LDT 2 13 39 12 38 -1 -1 VG 2 yrs. 1970
Doelle, Lewis 79 LDT 2 12 35 12 35 0 0 VG 1 yr. 1970
Walsh, Randall 72 RDT 2 27 54 27 53 0 -1 VG 5 yrs. 1970
Douglas, Bruce 93 RDT 2 13 35 13 34 0 -1 VG --- 1970
Slade, Morris 71 RDE 2 15 46 15 44 0 -2 VG 2 yrs. 1970
McKnight, Bernie 76 RDE 2 24 43 24 33 0 -10 VG 3 yrs. 1970
Matthews, Earnest 97 RDE 2 19 40 19 34 0 -6 VG 2 yrs. 1970
Sample, Terrance 73 RDE 2 15 32 15 29 0 -3 VG --- 1970
Cailao, Joseph 52 SLB 2 18 45 18 45 0 0 AV 1 yr. 1970
Riley, Neil 58 SLB 2 18 37 18 36 0 -1 AV --- 1970
Swift, Harry 50 MLB 2 21 48 21 45 0 -3 AV 4 yrs. 1970
Hopper, Luke 53 MLB 2 19 41 19 40 0 -1 AV 1 yr. 1970
Bradford, Rick 59 MLB 2 18 38 18 37 0 -1 AV --- 1970
Dixon, Desmond 54 MLB 2 19 35 19 34 0 -1 AV 1 yr. 1970
Florian, Christian 56 WLB 2 22 45 22 44 0 -1 AV 1 yr. 1970
Jordan, Michael 55 WLB 2 16 34 16 29 0 -5 AV --- 1970
Shapiro, Neil 20 LCB 2 24 48 24 47 0 -1 VG 2 yrs. 1970
Yonkovit, Neal 26 LCB 2 16 46 16 45 0 -1 VG 1 yr. 1970
Schroeder, Leroy 42 RCB 2 21 46 20 45 -1 -1 VG 2 yrs. 1970
Slatken, Jonathan 22 RCB 2 21 40 21 39 0 -1 VG 1 yr. 1970
Jochen, Arnie 25 RCB 2 13 35 13 35 0 0 VG --- 1970
Bordley, Kurt 30 SS 2 24 56 23 56 -1 0 VG 2 yrs. 1970
Cortez, Ron 29 SS 2 23 36 22 36 -1 0 VG 1 yr. 1970
Varitek, Artie 48 FS 2 24 46 24 46 0 0 VG 1 yr. 1970
Woodson, Craig 44 FS 2 20 43 19 42 -1 -1 VG 1 yr. 1970


edit: putting the analysis in a new post for formatting

[cuervo72]

The major differences in the two scouts are that our old scout was average in everything, but Excellent with the DB's, whereas our new scout is Very Good with young talent (+2 upgrade), DL (+2 upgrade) and DB (-1 downgrade), and G with Kickers (+1 upgrade).

The players that took the greatest hits in future ability are RDE Bernie McKnight (-10!), RDE Earnest Matthews (-6), WLB Michael Jordan (-5) and P Hugh Shockley. The hits to the DE's are most interesting, and look to be due to our scout's ability with the DL, and with young talent. He is likely able to see a bust factor that was not seen before for young talent, and this was amplified by his DL ability. This is also large for WLB Jordan, but looks like it is just attributable to hs young talent ability. MLB Harry Swift also is -3, a number that might well be greater if our scout was not average at LB. I find it particularly interesting that the McKnight/Matthews drops have a similar ration to the Jordan/Swift drops, just that those of the DL's are twice as large as those for the LB's. This could indicate a) that there are two "levels" of busting here, and b) my scouts ability at DL is accelerating the unmasking of the player.

It is also interesting that the last of the "large" drops is at one of the kicker positions, where my scout is rated good. For all of the positions where he is average and the same as my other scout, there are much smaller drops, usually -1 or -2 (-2 for all QB's). I wonder if this is just due to natural "settling" of a players' abilities, revealed a little faster due to the young talent rating, except for the case of G Harvey Blackshear, who with -3 might also be more of a bust. I'm not sure what to conclude from the DB's, where my scout is a bit weaker than his predecessor (but he's still VG).

[cuervo72]

Bump.

[Buzzbee]

One thing that is curious is that NO ONE, absolutely NO ONE got a bump UP in ratings. I would have guessed that a scout would error both ways, meaning overestimating AND underestimating talent. That doesn't seem to be the case. Interesting.

[Franklinnoble]

So, basically, lousy scouts can overestimate talent, but nobody ever underestimates it? Am I reading this right?

[dixieflatline]

Excellent work Cuervo. I get that feeling from all the recent FOF games. Bad scouts over estimate and better scouts are mostly dead on. Also the ratio of the drops, as Cuervo points out, seems to be very very improtant. This could be saying if the errors of the scouts in comparision to an excellent scout is x2 for VG x4 for Ave and x8 for lousy. Young players get "scouted twice" adding the positional error with the young talent error. That would fit with the ratio theory you pointed out.

[Vince]

Originally posted by Franklinnoble
So, basically, lousy scouts can overestimate talent, but nobody ever underestimates it? Am I reading this right?

I'd say this is way too small a sample size to make a conclusion like that. However, it is an interesting anomaly.

[cuervo72]

Originally posted by Buzzbee
One thing that is curious is that NO ONE, absolutely NO ONE got a bump UP in ratings. I would have guessed that a scout would error both ways, meaning overestimating AND underestimating talent. That doesn't seem to be the case. Interesting.

I thought this was interesting too, and maybe that's just luck of the draw. Vince is right, this is just one instance. But it is for 54 (had a guy on IR) players. You'd think somebody would increase.

I wonder how long a player falls into the "young talent" category, first 3 years maybe?