FOF2004 Volatility Rating

[yabanci]

Does anybody know what the new volatility rating is and how it works? It's not mentioned in the player screen help file.

[QuikSand]

I think that once it's explained, it will be something along the lines of "unpredictability." If you draft a player with high volatility, there's a higher chance that he will turn out to be a great deal different than what he is currently forecasted to be. Possibly better, possibly worse.

I've been following in with my careers thus far, and would say that I haven't gotten a firm handle on it yet.

[nilodor]

I assumed it was to deal with cohesion. The more volatile a player, the more likely he is to explode and cause a rift with the team. Think T.O.

[BucDawg40]

Originally posted by nilodor
I assumed it was to deal with cohesion. The more volatile a player, the more likely he is to explode and cause a rift with the team. Think T.O.

I made the same assumption.

[QuikSand]

I probably shouldn't have started with "I think that..." above. The "unpredictability" explanation is correct - I just don't know very well how it really manifests itself yet.

[yabanci]

yeah, volitility means "likely to change suddenly," so what you are saying quicksand makes perfect sense.

[bigdawg2003]

so if it means likely to change suddenly, does that have anything to do with a rookie being a boom or bust?

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by QuikSand
If you draft a player with high volatility, there's a higher chance that he will turn out to be a great deal different than what he is currently forecasted to be. Possibly better, possibly worse.

Originally posted by bigdawg2003
so if it means likely to change suddenly, does that have anything to do with a rookie being a boom or bust?

Um...yes.

[Bee]

I think Quiksand is wrong. I think it has to do with how easily the player catches fire.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally posted by Bee
I think Quiksand is wrong. I think it has to do with how easily the player catches fire.

Who should have the highest volatility rating then? I would say Ricky Williams.

[cuervo72]

Ricky's is pretty high, as are TO's and Shockey's. Sapp's is surprisingly low.

[yabanci]

Originally posted by Bee
I think Quiksand is wrong. I think it has to do with how easily the player catches fire.

What is this based on?

[Ben E Lou]

Looking at Quik's explanation, I find it interesting that the Volatility rating apparently carries with a player throughout his career. I would think that would indicate that it has an effect beyond booms/busts. I would speculate (and hope) that it could have a more "global" effect. A player with very high volatility might: be more sensitive to bad contract offers and be more likely to hold out as a result
be more likely to have wide variations in performance over the course of his career
be more responsive to affinities and conflicts
be more likely to be suspended for reckless behavior
be more likely to have a monster game on a big day, but also be more likely to have a subpar game on a big day as well

If things such as these aren't being modeled now, I would hope that they'd be considered for the future. This rating appears to me a step in the direction of fleshing out a player's "personality." I'd love to see this further developed.

[Pacersfan46]

The one who surprised me with how low it is, is Peyton Manning.

He's the most non volatile person I know of in sports.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Pacersfan46
The one who surprised me with how low it is, is Peyton Manning.

He's the most non volatile person I know of in sports. Well shouldn't his "volatility" rating be low then, if he is non-volatile?

[QuikSand]

Fascinating thread.

[Pacersfan46]

Ok, I just woke up, sue me!

It seems to change every time you start a new game on the demo though.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by QuikSand
Fascinating thread. Care to elucidate?

[Alf]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Care to elucidate?
QS just realized he could have been wrong in his first assumptions ;)

[wbonnell]

1: (chemistry) evaporating readily at normal temperatures and pressures; "volatile oils"; "volatile solvents" [ant: nonvolatile]

2: liable to lead to sudden change or violence; "an explosive issue"; "a volatile situation with troops and rioters eager for a confrontation" [syn: explosive]

3: marked by erratic changeableness in affections or attachments; "fickle friends"; "a flirt's volatile affections" [syn: fickle]

4: tending to vary often or widely; "volatile stocks"; "volatile emotions" n : a volatile substance; a substance that changes readily from solid or liquid to a vapor; "it was heated to evaporate the volatiles"

[cuervo72]

Maybe volatility indicates that there is a possibility for a player to conflict for reasons other than the traditional zodiac incompatibilities...something totally out of our control.....

(Ok, maybe not. But that would be an interesting wrinkle, wouldn't it?)

Or maybe this is just an indicator of how readily a player could become unhappy/disgruntled/otherwise pissed off.

I know, QS already stated it had to do with booming/busting (see: Ryan Leaf). But it's fun throwing these things out there. :)

[Bonegavel]

I would assume that Quiks knowledge stems from the beta-test and was explained to him by Jim (or the help file).

One thing about personality stuff in this game is that, you may find yourself worrying too much about concrete, yet abstract, matters of personality that aren't well fleshed out (if you know what i mean). I think at this point in the evolution of FOF, without being able to interact with the players via a conversation, this sort of "volatility" (as related to personality) would just get in the way of play and not add.

When you can interact with the players, this would be a great addition. But not now (IMHO).

[Nyarlahotep]

Hehe, I had been looking at this from a Hattrick point of view and figured it meant how likely they were to get penalized.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Bonegavel
I would assume that Quiks knowledge stems from the beta-test and was explained to him by Jim (or the help file).

Now we're on to something...

[Gallifrey]

Originally posted by QuikSand
I think that once it's explained, it will be something along the lines of "unpredictability." If you draft a player with high volatility, there's a higher chance that he will turn out to be a great deal different than what he is currently forecasted to be. Possibly better, possibly worse.


That is what I read it to mean...but too early to tell.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by QuikSand
Now we're on to something... So then, it is only related to draft boom/busts? If this is the case, I re-assert my belief that it is odd than the rating remains in place for veteran players.

[Gallifrey]

Originally posted by SkyDog
So then, it is only related to draft boom/busts? If this is the case, I re-assert my belief that it is odd than the rating remains in place for veteran players.

It should be the case that a vet would not need this rating, as you know what you have.

[Bonegavel]

Originally posted by SkyDog
So then, it is only related to draft boom/busts? If this is the case, I re-assert my belief that it is odd than the rating remains in place for veteran players.

I agree that is odd. Actually, I think the whole thing is a bit odd to have a rating like that in the first place. After all, with more information in the draft, you are no longer simply choosing the highest rated player at the position anymore and boom/bust will no longer be an issue because you have more info on which to base your decision. If a player busts, at least you know you picked him because his many draft attributes told you he fit, and not just because he was the highest on the list.

I just figured that, with Quik's insistence and "this is the meaning of the attribute", it had to be because he inquired about it with Jim during BT.

[Buzzbee]

It is a little bit of an odd addition, but adds a little to the strategy. It seems like it is a little bit of a "bust predictor". If you have a player with high ratings AND a high volitility, he would be a prime candidate for a bust. On the other hand, if you have a moderate player with low volitility, you can sleep easier knowing that you have a pretty good chance of getting what you expect.

I'd be curious to see what happens when you have a player with very low ratings and a high volitility. Would that player tend to be a breakout type of player?

Also, I would EXPECT to see higher volitility ratings for certain skill positions such as QB, RB, CB, LB, and lesser volitility for OL and DL.

[jamesUMD]

I'm dissapointed that volatility measures the players ability to boom or bust. I thought that it meant that the player might have off the field types of troubles or might be an indicator of locker room cancers ala Terrell Owens, Meyshawn Johnson, etc. etc. I thought that a high volatility rating might correlate to more frequent suspensions, number of players they are in conflict with etc. etc. I really would like to see players that have multiple conflicts with other players. I would also like to see suspensions that last for fewer than 16 freaking games.
IMO---you add a section to the player card called "infractions"
Each time a player is suspended or fined it is added to his card.
If they have stats for Bill Romanowski's fines then I think it would be cool to have, if anything, just to know who the bad boys in the league are. That way you could tie the players volatility rating to the chances of an in-game or off the field problem leading him to suspension. I would like to see varying degrees of suspensions followed by more severe suspensions for further trangressions by the same player.. 4 games for 1st time steroid suspension,leading all the way to a life-time ban.

Just my banter

[Bonegavel]

This discussion is all academic (as the game isn't out yet) but I'm torn on the volitility rating as described by Quik.

I think it could add a lot of strategy to picks: a draft pick with a high volatility might be a choice you may not otherwise have selected - Caveat Draftor.

But, you may go for the lower volitility guy to get more of what was advertised.

[edit - I wonder if the volatility rating will be an absolute number or based on your scout. I would imagine the latter.]

[SunDancer]

I wanted to bump this discussion. With the game out, I want to hear your updated comments on this rating.

[3ric]

Originally posted by Bonegavel
This discussion is all academic (as the game isn't out yet) but I'm torn on the volitility rating as described by Quik.

I think it could add a lot of strategy to picks: a draft pick with a high volatility might be a choice you may not otherwise have selected - Caveat Draftor.

But, you may go for the lower volitility guy to get more of what was advertised.

[edit - I wonder if the volatility rating will be an absolute number or based on your scout. I would imagine the latter.]

I think Bone is pretty spot on here. You go for the safe picks early (low volatility) and gamble in the later rounds (high volatility).

[Samdari]

Originally posted by Bee
I think Quiksand is wrong. I think it has to do with how easily the player catches fire.

Hmm, then it should be called combustibility.