New Plan for my $2.5M

[damnMikeBrown]

So, my original plan of securing an U-20 keeper prospect has failed. I had nowhere near the currency to lay down when it came down to it. So be it.

My back-up plan, of grabbing a French or Oceania keeper almost worked. An emergency trip to my Grandmother's prevented bidding on them, however. This is the painful part. The Oceania 17yr mid/high solids went for scraps. Like $750k-$1M.

So here I am, walking into week 3, with no U-20 prospects, and no intentions of looking any more for one.

What I'm planning now, is grabbing an 18 or 19yr old 'Outstanding' keeper, and training him up another couple years. My reasoning is this. I believe that there wll soon be an inflationary trend in HT, with all the extra $$ coming in through the increased gate receipts. The best place to store the cash is in a player. The best player is one that is improving. Ergo, I should buy a new trainee, and as I train keeper, that's who I buy.

The bump from Excellent to Formidable is the first significant increase in expected price. It's something like an $850k or so increase. After that, each level is roughly $1M or so. Roughly now. . . The most profitable level to buy in to a trainee then, would be the Formidable/Outstanding level, as each bump is worth $1M+.

Thoughts on the new evil plan? I'm thinking it's the most profitable way to go, and the best way to store the funds so as to get a positive return on them.

[Poli]

I'm loving it. :)

[Airhog]

as long as the inflation is greater then what you could earn by simply keeping your money in a bank. How much interest a week would that amount of cash bring in?

[damnMikeBrown]

Interest right now is something like $17,500 on $2.56M. So, it's roughly, well, nothing. Now, each week of training adds something like $200k of value on to an outstanding keeper. The trainee I'm selling (junk placeholder) is only Excellent amd 21. An expected 6 week training time on him and an increase of $820k or so, means just short f a $140k per week of foregone increase by training trainees. That's still a net of $60k per week on training, with accelerating returns due to any future age differences. The $17k of foregone interest leaves an increase of $40k weekly, roughly, for the next 5 weeks or so. Again, with gains accelerating in the future due to aging(not this season, but next).

That accounts for theoretical profit. Protecting the savings against inflation is also a goal, which investing in a player will do (assuming inflation). I plan on keeping him for 2 seasons at a minimum, so if the predicted inflation occurs, we'll be seeing it's effects by then.

As far as the inflation goes, it's unavoidable. Just look at your position now, and how much you're pulling in compared to this time last season. An increase is, of course, natural, as your team is a season more mature (unless you've been demoted). On the whole, however, we're all MUCH better off. We will have more dollars chasing a relatively constant(growing at the rate of HT) players, with highly trained players being those effected the greatest (not capable of being topped by a youth pull).

[sterlingice]

Sounds pretty good to me.

I would also like to point out the inflationary trend on the use of the word "ergo" ever since The Architect's speech in Reloaded.

SI

[BishopMVP]

Maybe buy 2 around excellent, then buy a real good player or two with the 1.5 million or so leftover. Your plan sounds good too.

[Raven Hawk]

I agree. Unless you have the coveted "metric assload of cash" I don't think that interest is worth foregoing a good trainee.

Your plan sounds solid. The other thing that you might be able to do is get a player from a much smaller (HT-wise) nation to train for their U-20. If you've given up on this, though, the ideal thing to do would be to reinvest that $ into a trainee.

[DukeRulesMAB]

FWIW, I think there's a second USA 17-YO solid up for sale right now. Dunno if his price will get out of hand or not, but he seems the likely backup.

[damnMikeBrown]

Well, it's all done. I spent the wad, not all together well, but wisely.

I picked up a 19yr outstanding keeper as my trainee. Wanted a USA keeper, and only one was out there, so I ended up overpaying by $150-$200k. Cost: $2.5M

I'd lost my two best forwards to suspension in my league match, and really thought I could win my cup game, IF I had the offense. I purchased a 21yr Excellent Scorer for $400k. Again, probably overpaid by some, maybe $30k or so, but he was the most inexpensive one that I'd tracked. All the rest I'd bookmarked (20 or so), went for a good sum more, many over $500k. Cost: $400k

Finally, I sold my old keeper trainee who had just poped excellent. This one was disappointing. He's 21, but still, an Excellent Keeper. I received a scant $409k for him. That was more annoying than depressing, but again, the bad side of the economic scale. Probably a good $60-$70k below market value on him. Revenue: $409k

I wont my cup match, so I'll get a windfall of another $150k next week. I doubt that would have happened without the new guy. The keeper trainee I'll keep for at least 2 seasons, so the overpay is neglidgeable. The worst of the bunch was the sale of my trainee going for so little. All together though, not awfull, just not ideal.

[Raven Hawk]

400k for an excellent scorer is a good price, depending on his passing rating. My guess is that if you got him for that much, he probably had wretched passing. I just sold an excellent for 470k with poor passing.

Good luck with your new players. And . . . what did you do with the other 1.5 - 2M you got from the sale of Pacheco? Coach? Stadium? Inquiring minds want to know! :)

[damnMikeBrown]

Actually, the passing rating is weak with, and this is useless except for pressing, an inadequate defense. So exc score/weak passing for $401k. Additionally, he moved an exp level in tonights cup match.

As to the remaining funds, approx $2M, in order of purcase:


Quintero: $200k A solid/solid def/pass, with CA in mind.
Freijedo: $87k A passable/solid/inad def/pass/wing for WB in CA.
Tregubin: $398k A solid/solid/pass/utopian Def/exp/ldrshp/SP as a future coach and SP specialist with defensive ability.
Tau: $360k Exc/Inad PM/Pass An offensive IM.
Lopez: $137k Solid/Inad/Exc Score/Pass/SP A solid scorer with +3 or 4 weeks of training. Good SP taker as well.
Katsir: $91k solid/weak/passable Score/pass/SP Another striker, but this one is a fresh pop to solid.

A solid coach: $270k

So I bought 2 starting caliber defenders (1 a future coach & SP stud), 1 CA specialist who still can do 3* defensively. 1 Starting offensive IM. 2 starting caliber strikers, each with good SP skills.

I had hoped that CA would be more than it appears to be, so I wanted to get a defense to support that (I now have a 3 solid/solid defenders and CA specialist).

I did more of a general upgrade than a big 1 shot upgrade. In fact, switching from a defensive to offensive coach, my ratings took a good hit, so it looks as if I took 2 steps back, and 1 step forward. I am, however, generating up to Outstanding attack ratings, and that's more than enough to win with my keeper training.

[vex]

I just want a magnificent Keeper.

[daedalus]

Awesome use of your fund, dMB. Dig the Tregubin purchase. Hopefully, you have some header specialists to complement Tregubin and Lopez. Set piece and long shot goals would make perfect complements for a 'keeper trainer like yourself.

Good show! :D

[Alf]

dMB : did you shop in Mexico ? All those sound like Spanish names ?

[damnMikeBrown]

I try to buy American when looking at trainees. 20% extra on a keeper at a very high level, well, that adds up. Just no reason to swallow the extra extra $2k per week or so in wages(next season). For any other position, ceteris parabus, I choose USA, but price dictates.
Chi-Wu: USA(keeper trainee)
Quintero: Espana
Freijedo: Sverige
Tregubin: Eesti
Tau: Singapore
Lopez: Argentina
Katsir: Canada

So just 2 from Spain or former colonies. As I recall, they were largely from the original market.

[Alf]

Nice purchases anyway !