TCY to 5.0b -- Draft trends

[QuikSand]

Here’s a recent draft from FOF 2004, using a draft file from TCY 1.2a.2. It was 2006 in FOF, so these are the players who left after 2005 from TCY. Notice anything fairly easy to spot?


1. Buffalo - Coble, Jeremy, RB, Notre Dame
2. Washington - Curtis, Jamie, DT, Oregon
3. New Orleans - Wilkins, Grant, DT, Kansas State
4. Atlanta - Evans, J.J., T, Maryland
5. Pittsburgh - Cunningham, Raymond, DT, Penn State
6. Oakland - Bynaker, R.J., DE, Iowa
7. Cleveland - Richmond, Deon, CB, Arizona State
8. Minnesota - O'Neil, Kirk, T, Miami, Florida
9. Kansas City - McDonald, Ed, WR, Clemson
10. Tennessee - Sinclair, Norm, T, Texas A&M
11. St. Louis - Palmer, Casey, G, Colorado
12. Green Bay - Bove, Danny, ILB, UCLA
13. Indianapolis - Forbes, Trent, DT, Boston College
14. Baltimore - Sharpton, Courtney, DE, Iowa
15. New York G - Farrell, Levon, RB, Virginia Tech
16. San Francisco - Davison, Melvin, RB, Penn State
17. Carolina - Roberson, Rex, QB, Florida State
18. Chicago - Flannery, Claude, QB, Michigan
19. Dallas - Davis, Curtis, ILB, Alabama
20. Denver - Knight, Jay, DE, Georgia Tech
21. Jacksonville - Terry, Bart, S, Washington
22. Arizona - Graham, Curtis, WR, Nebraska
23. New England - Holmes, Pat, G, West Virginia
24. New York J - Sasser, Marlon, WR, Tennessee
25. Detroit - Strong, Vernon, S, Florida
26. Seattle - Garner, Courtney, WR, Notre Dame
27. San Diego - Mahoney, Sherman, CB, Miami, Florida
28. Houston - Ellard, Jimmy, WR, Texas
29. Cincinnati - Hancock, Walter, QB, Florida State
30. Philadelphia - Stevens, Junior, OLB, Georgia
31. Baltimore - Clinton, Marc, WR, Miami, Florida
32. Miami - Singleton, Ross, G, Texas
33. Buffalo - Wylie, Jay, T, Georgia
34. Washington - Bingham, Billy Joe, RB, Oklahoma
35. New Orleans - Dennis, Shane, DE, Colorado
36. Atlanta - Parker, Lorenzo, CB, Alabama
37. Pittsburgh - Leeuwenburg, Doug, OLB, Virginia
38. Oakland - Bernstein, Phillip, DT, Alabama
39. Cleveland - Gibson, Kris, DT, Washington
40. Minnesota - Hitchcock, Kelly, RB, Georgia Tech
41. Kansas City - Holmes, Nicky, DT, Clemson
42. Tennessee - Glendon, Robbie, CB, Minnesota
43. St. Louis - Evans, J.R., OLB, Penn State
44. Green Bay - Stevens, Kirk, S, Michigan
45. Indianapolis - Kline, Bryce, RB, Florida State
46. Baltimore - Bostick, Scottie, DE, Southern California
47. New York G - Frisch, Daryl, ILB, Penn State
48. San Francisco - Woodard, Nathan, DE, Minnesota
49. Carolina - Ramsey, Archie, RB, Tennessee
50. New Orleans - Eddings, Howie, S, Miami, Florida
51. Dallas - Glover, Phillip, DT, Georgia
52. Denver - Mendola, Julio, RB, Florida State
53. Jacksonville - Boyer, John, CB, Maryland
54. Arizona - Freeman, Marcus, RB, Texas Tech
55. New England - Loendorf, Austin, DE, UCLA
56. Buffalo - Tindale, Earl, WR, Penn State
57. Detroit - Jamison, Josh, G, Alabama
58. Seattle - Ashraf, Brenden, DE, Arizona State
59. San Diego - McGregor, Robbie, T, Florida State
60. Houston - Drauch, Everett, T, Syracuse
61. Cincinnati - Strauss, Jackie, WR, Southern California
62. Philadelphia - Boyd, Jared, RB, Arizona
63. Tampa Bay - Turnage, Danny, OLB, Texas Tech
64. Miami - Alexander, Rufus, OLB, Oklahoma
65. Buffalo - Connell, Moe, CB, Notre Dame
66. Washington - Knight, Carl, OLB, South Carolina
67. New Orleans - Bruce, Ed, FB, UCLA
70. Oakland - Linquist, Ty, OLB, Clemson
71. Cleveland - Baker, Bill, WR, Wake Forest
72. Minnesota - Burnett, Derrick, CB, West Virginia
73. Kansas City - Drake, Cory, DT, UCLA
75. St. Louis - Jenkins, Claude, DE, Washington
76. Green Bay - Sanderson, Lewis, CB, Iowa State
77. Indianapolis - Atkins, Edwin, G, UCLA
78. Baltimore - Vance, Drew, T, Kansas State
81. Carolina - Cook, Orlando, DE, Tennessee
82. Jacksonville - Calixto, Troy, WR, Florida State
84. Denver - Ackley, Lance, S, Oregon State
86. Arizona - Brohm, Darnell, C, Ohio State
88. New York J - Skerritt, O.J., S, Virginia Tech
89. Detroit - McLeod, Hunter, RB, Michigan State
91. San Diego - Zgonina, Mitch, FB, Alabama
92. Houston - Cooper, Graham, CB, Minnesota
93. Cincinnati - Gramble, Jim, T, Michigan State
97. Buffalo - Thomason, Richard, OLB, West Virginia
98. Washington - Browning, Jermaine, WR, Texas
99. New Orleans - Stiggers, Trevor, T, Brigham Young
100. Atlanta - Person, Juan, CB, Wake Forest
101. Pittsburgh - Midget, Marshall, T, North Carolina State
102. Oakland - Money, Steven, TE, Georgia
103. Cleveland - Blum, Dale, DE, Arizona State
104. Minnesota - Rivers, Walt, G, Michigan State
105. Kansas City - Hudgens, Brant, ILB, Colorado State
106. Tennessee - Kenny, Jimmie, CB, Virginia Tech
107. St. Louis - Holmes, Jonathan, TE, Miami, Florida
108. Green Bay - Saturday, Stan, WR, Oklahoma
109. Chicago - Brandon, Quinn, G, Illinois
110. Baltimore - West, Keith, ILB, Oregon
111. New York G - Winn, Dan, OLB, Virginia
112. San Francisco - Hernandez, Shawn, ILB, Notre Dame
113. Carolina - Olsen, Omar, G, Stanford
114. Chicago - Stender, Anthony, DT, Nebraska
115. Dallas - Shreiber, Jeffrey, DE, Wisconsin
116. Denver - Culver, Peter, S, Virginia Tech
117. Jacksonville - Gleason, Chris, DT, UCLA
118. Arizona - Liu, Graham, QB, Iowa
119. Denver - Chapman, Leslie, OLB, Temple
120. New York J - Tuinei, Gino, S, Texas
121. Detroit - Radda, Lance, CB, East Carolina
122. Seattle - Bradford, Glen, ILB, Oklahoma
123. San Diego - Weinke, Ted, OLB, South Carolina
124. Houston - Caston, Adam, CB, Notre Dame
125. Cincinnati - Mills, Lorenzo, TE, Wisconsin
126. Philadelphia - Sonnier, Corwin, S, Washington
127. Tampa Bay - Hopper, Barry, DT, Texas
128. Miami - Peters, Jerald, G, South Carolina
129. Buffalo - Mayes, Matt, OLB, Michigan State
130. Washington - Roebuck, Antoine, G, Washington
131. New Orleans - Sprotte, Bucky, CB, Utah State
132. Atlanta - Roberson, R.J., WR, Ohio State
133. Pittsburgh - Dodge, Thomas, FB, Nebraska
134. Oakland - Giles, Derrick, DE, UCLA
135. Cleveland - Stewart, Herman, G, Arkansas
136. Chicago - Gow, Dexter, TE, Iowa State
137. Kansas City - Grylicki, Alfred, RB, Illinois
138. Tennessee - Lyons, Leonard, DT, Colorado State
139. St. Louis - Ballard, Keith, C, Washington
140. Green Bay - Tomlinson, Aaron, OLB, Kansas State
141. Indianapolis - Fredrickson, Van, OLB, Texas Tech
142. Baltimore - Austin, Bucky, FB, Illinois
143. New York G - Mitchell, Steven, CB, North Carolina
144. San Francisco - Bruce, Ricky, CB, Arkansas
145. Carolina - Knott, Bert, OLB, Stanford
146. Chicago - Messer, Billy Joe, DT, Northern Illinois
147. Dallas - Moseley, Cris, DE, Florida State
148. Denver - Carver, Joel, G, California
149. Jacksonville - Roberts, Ernie, P, Maryland
150. Arizona - Lucido, Daniel, CB, Texas
151. New England - Aguilar, Jeff, OLB, Georgia
152. New York J - Mills, Doug, DE, Kansas State
153. Detroit - Cote, Bobby, C, Miami, Florida
154. Seattle - Chalmers, Arnold, G, Kansas
155. San Diego - Sheldon, J.R., G, Oklahoma
156. Houston - Shinkle, Grant, OLB, Tennessee
157. Cincinnati - Perez, Brian, G, Marshall
158. Philadelphia - Durham, Ricardo, S, Oregon
159. Tampa Bay - Bronson, Alfred, DT, South Carolina
160. Miami - Grant, Dennis, RB, Southern California
161. Buffalo - Perkins, Randal, S, Oklahoma
162. Washington - Gilmore, Justin, FB, Penn State
163. New Orleans - Stanfield, George, G, Louisiana State
164. Atlanta - Jorgensen, Vernon, WR, Virginia Tech
165. Pittsburgh - Carpenter, Monty, TE, Illinois
166. Cleveland - Ligeski, Tim, G, Nebraska
167. Cleveland - Sneller, Dan, T, Utah
168. Minnesota - Scott, Antoine, DE, Texas Tech
169. Kansas City - Kirchner, Ernest, CB, Mississippi
170. Tennessee - Franz, Monty, DT, Boise State
171. St. Louis - Pearson, Jimmie, CB, Air Force
172. Green Bay - Pegram, Wesley, TE, Clemson
173. Indianapolis - Arnold, Maurice, DE, Maryland
174. Baltimore - Loving, Andy, T, Virginia Tech
175. New York G - Sherman, Terrell, C, Arizona State
176. San Francisco - Diaz, Rick, G, Virginia Tech
177. Carolina - Blackburn, Jose, OLB, Oklahoma
178. Chicago - McCann, Jerald, P, Missouri
179. Dallas - Fox, Tyrus, DT, Iowa State
180. Denver - Snyder, Jeffrey, T, Texas
181. Jacksonville - Humphries, Clifton, ILB, Texas
182. Arizona - Bennett, Floyd, G, Clemson
183. New England - Bocaling, Jerald, OLB, Miami, Florida
184. New York J - Walker, Tito, C, Georgia
185. Detroit - Bailey, Patrick, CB, Iowa State
186. Seattle - Swayne, Sammy, C, Florida
187. San Diego - Russell, Rex, TE, Texas
188. Houston - McCarthy, Jumbo, OLB, Virginia
189. Cincinnati - Montgomery, Greg, CB, Pittsburgh
190. Philadelphia - Bullock, Darren, DT, Nebraska
191. Tampa Bay - Warren, Wes, ILB, North Carolina State
192. Miami - Bruner, Zach, WR, Iowa
193. Buffalo - Carpenter, Eddie, S, Missouri
194. Washington - Grbac, Brad, S, Texas A&M
195. New Orleans - DiCaprio, Calvin, T, Arkansas
196. Atlanta - Kennedy, Fernando, C, Miami, Florida
197. Pittsburgh - McElroy, Monty, S, Clemson
198. Oakland - Colvin, Kelly, WR, Florida State
199. Cleveland - Ramsey, Kendrick, RB, Louisiana State
200. Minnesota - Cook, Jose, OLB, Boston College
201. Kansas City - Wiggins, Jorge, OLB, Boise State
202. Tennessee - Brown, Herb, RB, Miami, Florida
203. St. Louis - Arnott, Greg, FB, Penn State
204. Green Bay - Richmond, Broderick, DE, Colorado State
205. Indianapolis - Browning, Ronnie, DE, Iowa State
206. Baltimore - Mitchell, Scottie, OLB, East Carolina
207. New York G - Brennan, Winston, S, Kansas State
208. San Francisco - Pierce, Lionel, DE, Wake Forest
209. Carolina - Fox, Alex, DT, Texas
210. Chicago - Randle, Sherman, RB, Texas
211. Dallas - Lewis, Lionel, P, Florida
212. Denver - Hodges, Sammie, TE, Texas A&M
213. Jacksonville - O'Neill, Antoine, QB, Wake Forest
214. Arizona - Moss, Henry, FB, Arizona
215. New England - Johnston, Rico, DT, Iowa
216. New York J - Wagoner, Percy, G, Boise State
217. Detroit - Reynolds, Derrick, TE, Illinois
218. Seattle - Zepeda, Barry, G, Georgia
219. San Diego - Bruce, Jeffrey, S, Southern California
220. Houston - Floyd, Roman, DE, Alabama
221. Cincinnati - Godinez, Dale, T, Georgia Tech
222. Philadelphia - Flannery, Leon, T, Southern California
223. Tampa Bay - Hampton, Conrad, CB, Michigan
224. Miami - Buckingham, Archie, TE, Florida


I’ll tell you what I noticed… where are the small schools? I’m used to seeing a sprinkling of players from Liberty and Arkansas-Pine Bluff mixed in, even among the very top picks. Here, I can hardly find any players coming from schools outside the BCS conferences.

I suspect this is just a function of the TCY game (all the top players start out at the top schools) – but it’s a little bit weird. My school (Akron) has yet to place even a single player into the draft over the first three years I’ve been running the game. Hopefully, that will change pretty soon – but I would like to see some greater diversity in the spread of schools over time, regardless.

I hope there’s no bug here…

[Peregrine]

I hope that isn't a bug too! I love to keep records of how many graduates from my TCY dynasties go on to fame or mediocrity in the NFL.

[Ben E Lou]

If my premise about potential rating being the #1 factor in draft import value, then this makes sense. Early in a TCY career, smaller schools have very few, if any, players with a potential rating >80. I'd be curious to see how it pans out after newly recruited players start showing up.

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by SkyDog
If my premise about potential rating being the #1 factor in draft import value, then this makes sense. Early in a TCY career, smaller schools have very few, if any, players with a potential rating >80. I'd be curious to see how it pans out after newly recruited players start showing up.

great point. Even big school backups would enter the draft pool over small school standouts.

[Easy Mac]

I dunno, I saw a couple of guys in there from Texas A&M and Notre Dame.

[Honolulu Blue]

I think it's just an aberration and the smaller schools will eventually start showing up.

Drifting off topic for a bit, one thing that I noticed last night and I see confirmed on QS's list is the numbering of the picks in the third round. I'll take a sample from his post:


78. Baltimore - Vance, Drew, T, Kansas State
81. Carolina - Cook, Orlando, DE, Tennessee
82. Jacksonville - Calixto, Troy, WR, Florida State
84. Denver - Ackley, Lance, S, Oregon State
86. Arizona - Brohm, Darnell, C, Ohio State
88. New York J - Skerritt, O.J., S, Virginia Tech
89. Detroit - McLeod, Hunter, RB, Michigan State
91. San Diego - Zgonina, Mitch, FB, Alabama
92. Houston - Cooper, Graham, CB, Minnesota
93. Cincinnati - Gramble, Jim, T, Michigan State
97. Buffalo - Thomason, Richard, OLB, West Virginia


Note the gaps - they are, of course, from teams being over the cap during one of the offseason check periods. I wondered what happened to the picks that get skipped. Apparently they're skipped and not replaced, so the number of drafted players is FEWER than 224 (32 x 7). But the numbering just skips the # of the pick missed. So someone with the last pick in the 3rd round, ordinarily #96 overall, might actually have the 90th pick if six teams had to skip their picks.

I'm not sure if this is the way Jim wanted to handle this.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Honolulu Blue
I'm not sure if this is the way Jim wanted to handle this.

There seems to be some evidence that this is, indeed, how he wanted to handle it.

[Easy Mac]

I think it just works our easier and makes the coding easier. That way the game isn't confused when 4 teams lose a pick. If it just counted normally, it may allow 4 extra picks. This way it makes the computer end its run on # 2whatever.

[henry296]

I noticed the first QB didn't go until #17.

Todd

[primelord]

Originally posted by henry296
I noticed the first QB didn't go until #17.

Todd

Is that a problem?

[henry296]

Not really, but it is lower than I can remember for the 1st QB. At first I thought skill position players were going to low, but I see a RB went first and the first WR was 9th.

[primelord]

Originally posted by henry296
Not really, but it is lower than I can remember for the 1st QB. At first I thought skill position players were going to low, but I see a RB went first and the first WR was 9th.

The NFL has been a little QB happy the past few drafts, but it isn't that uncommon. In 2000 the 1st QB drafted was Pennington at #18. In 97 the first one was Druckenmiller at #26.

[OldGiants]

since this is the 2005 class, all these players are still coming from the original start-up rosters generated by TCY. (I'm at the exact same point in my games of TCY and FOF, so I'm seeing the same lack of small schools)

The 2006 draft class will still be these original generated players, so I'm expecting no change in schools. In 2007, we'll see the five year red shirts of the original generated players, plus the first crop of four year players from the first set of TCY recruits (hope that makes sense to all)

So the 2008 draft class, taken in the 2009 draft, will be the first set of 'pure' TCY recruits done under competition. That's when I'm hoping we'll see the first of the small schools showing up (although the 2008 draft is quite possible).

So if you're looking for small schools in a TCY imported draft before 2008--forget it!

At least that's my thinking. I'm trying to find the time to blast through to the 2009 draft to see what a pure import of TCY recruited collegians looks like.

[BishopMVP]

I agree with OldGiants on this one.

Although seeing 2 skill position players from Notre Dame taken in the first round seems like a bug.

[kcchief19]

Originally posted by SkyDog
If my premise about potential rating being the #1 factor in draft import value, then this makes sense. Early in a TCY career, smaller schools have very few, if any, players with a potential rating >80. I'd be curious to see how it pans out after newly recruited players start showing up.
This was my thought as well. Based on this draft, I'm assuming you started with default prestige ratings, because the players are not merely coming from the BCS conferences but they are primarily coming from the power teams in the BCS conferences.

One would assume that after a larger number of TCY seasons to allow for some movement in prestige and talent levels of conferences and teams, you'll see a different distribution.

Two thoughts: (1) I wonder how the distribution would change if you selected random prestige -- that may allow for a greater initial distribution of talent from less well known schools; and (2) Does this add to the realism of FOF? I mean, sure, it's neat to see players from small schools drafted, but how often do you see guys from Arkansas Pine Bluff going in the first round or a RB from Southwest Missouri State going No. 1?