OT - Laying down aces in Hold 'Em

[QuikSand]

Yes, another poker thread...

I have an anecdote to follow up with, but essentially my question is this:
should you ever lay down a pair of aces pre-flop in texas hold 'em?

My initial reaction is "of course not," but I recently came across a situation where that might well have been the proper thing to do.


I was playing a small three-table tournament, with 27 players, no-limit all the way. I am among the stronger players in the field (by my own reckoning), and so my general philosophy is to play very tight for the initial low-blind phases, and let the more reckless players sort themselves out. As the blinds start to become meaningful, I loosen up a bit, and usually benefit from my conservative image (at that point, people think I am tighter than I actually am, and I get a lot of laydowns).

So, it's very early in the tournament, I have already won one decent pot, and now I am dealt pocket aces. Great. I am in an early position, and I raise the $100 big blind to $250 -- a fairly simple raise. My inclination here is to play out the hand against a narrowed field, and if I am reraised, I will push all in.

In this case, though, the action is different. Put me in seat #4 (two after the big blind). Seat 6 raises my $250 by another $500. Seat 7 or 8 raises him by another $1,000. The button pushes all in. Back to me.

So - here I am. Holding aces, which almost certainly dominate whatever the button has. In a heads-up pot, I'm very likely to take it down. But now I have not one but two more reraisers, who I judge as pretty likely to call the all-in, no matter what I do. So, in my judgment, if I go all in, the pot is likely to be three way, or possibly even four way. I will be the favorite -- but not necessarily an odds-on favorite. (That is, my odds of winning might drop from 65% to something like 35% in a four-way pot)

In general, I follow the axiom that doubling up does not double your value. Especially so in the early phases of the tournament. Here- I have the chance to turn my $11,000 into something like $40,000 if I win a four way pot. I'll have the best chance to do so among those playing, but I'm not a lock by any means. I can get out and have only lost $350 on the hand - which leaves me basically intact.

Do I lay down the aces?

[SirFozzie]

Pre-flop?

No.

There is risk, but you can make a good profit by it, and I think AA in four way has a good enough chance to risk it.

[Airhog]

you didnt mention how much it would cost to call the button's all-in. If it isnt much more than the 1,500 then I would say you should play the hand. However, if they have a large stack, then it might not be worth it.

[albionmoonlight]

Not to derail what may be an interesting and insightful discussion, but your story reminded me of this article:
www DOT pokerpages DOT com/articles/archives/angelo31.htm([DOT] replacing [.] in case links to poker sites are now verboten)

___________________________

For my birthday last year my girlfriend enrolled me in a fiction-writing course at Stanford. "Maybe you could get rich by writing a book about being broke," she said. "Others have."

I went to all ten three-hour evening sessions. I did my homework and I paid attention in class. The teacher told us, "Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story." That hit me where it helps, and I was forever changed as a writer, no longer confined by an allegiance to the truth.

But the story I will tell you now is true. It must be, or there would be no point in the telling. I am like an astronaut who walked on the moon and returned to write of feelings unimagined on earth. I am like a man who for years lived alone in a forgotten forest and returned to write of his trials and triumphs. For I am the poker player who longed to fold pocket aces before the flop at $20-40 limit hold'em, and finally did it. Here is my story.

Thirteen years ago, my career as a performing musician had become too financially unreliable. I needed something I could count on. So I quit the band and became a professional poker player. I played in low-limit no-rake flop-games, in homes, and apartments, and church basements after bingo, and wherever else the action was. The games were very, very loose. I read a book that said to fold a lot. So that's what I did, and that's why I was able to live well, which I define as: To never pass up a concert because of the ticket price. As a poker player, I was successful, which I define as: solvent.

I studied the best player, the guy who got everyone's respect and money. He did it different. He didn't show cards or indicate in any way what he had after a hand was over. And he didn't share his opinions on how others played or behaved. And he never got upset -- by bad luck, by bad dealers, by bad anything. He was immune to it. And I thought, I could do that, and I should. I will train myself -- after a lifetime of spewing information and emotion - I will teach myself to keep secrets.

And somewhere around then is when an idea landed on me like a nearly unnoticed insect. To fold pocket aces before the flop. Just to do it. To see if I could. To see how it felt.

But why? Why do such a self-destructive thing? (an inner voice asked)

Because it is there, like a mountain, waiting to be climbed.

But some mountain climbers lose fingers and toes from frostbite. Some get brain damage from oxygen deprivation. Some die. "Because it's there" is a stupid reason to justify a stupid act.

You are correct. And now, if you are quite finished pestering me, would you please be so kind as to point me to the mountain?

Okay. But are you really sure you want to climb it today? With rent due and all?

You're right. Never mind.

Fast-forward ten years to 2003. I was playing hold'em and I lost a pot with pocket aces. For no good reason I did a quick calculation to see how many times that had happened before. I multiplied out the years, hours, and hands-per-hour, and as it turns out, I've played a million hands of hold'em. That means I have had pocket aces at over 4000 times. If I lost one out of four, then I have lost with pocket aces 1000 times. I have lost with pocket aces 1000 times. I have lost with pocket aces 1000 times.

What if? What if the next time it was on purpose? The bug was back and this time it bit.

I mentioned this idea of folding aces to some of my poker buddies, in real life and online. After the expected fleering, the ensuing discussions produced two more reasons to do it:

To make folding easier. Perhaps if I folded aces one time before the flop, it would then be a wee bit easier to fold any hand, at any time, especially when I know I should fold, but don't. Yeah whatever. I didn't buy it.

To make the worst play ever made before the flop at limit hold'em. Now here was a reason I could sink my silliness into. Billions of preflop betting decisions have been made at hold'em. It was irresistibly appealing to the hotdog in me to be able to lay claim to having made the worst one.
In May 2003 I went to Vegas. I was in a $20-40 game next to a friend who knew of my quest. I got pocket aces. My friend folded in front of me. I raised. Both blinds called. The flop came 8-8-2 and I lost to an eight. Then I remembered, damn, I could have flashed the aces to my friend before the flop, and folded. The quest would have been over, and witnessed.

Couple days later, the same thing happened, with a different friend sitting on my right. He folded, I got aces, and I forgot to flash and fold. The board came K-J- x, 10, x, and I lost to a straight.

Days later, driving home through the Mohave Desert, I got to thinking about this whole aces thing. Maybe it's best as a private matter. Maybe I should do it, to see if I could, and then not tell anyone, to see if I could do that too. It'd be the worst play, and the best secret, all in one. And besides, who would believe such a tale? I mean, besides my buddy Alex.

And why is this simple task so daunting? Is it the monetary sacrifice? Apparently not. I could give away a hundred bucks, or set fire to it, without much effort or pain. But folding pocket aces before the flop, at any limit, even $3-6, would be far more difficult. So it wasn't the money; it was something else holding me back. Perhaps the anticipation of engaging the enemy while holding the best possible weapon is too much for a good warrior to relinquish, under any circumstances.

(In an online discussion, someone asked the actual dollar value of pocket aces at $20-40. The answers ranged from $60 to $100. Lee Jones replied: "How much is it worth to know that those aces are two little pieces of plastic, that you control then, and not vice versa?" )

A few days later, on May 19, I went to Lucky Chances at 4:00 AM to play $20-40. The game was shorthanded and fast. I got pocket aces. Just as my raise hit the table, I thought, damn, there goes another shot at the Holy Grail. Next time I get 'em, I'm gonna muck. I think I can do it. I just have to stop and remember. I lost that hand to a flopped flush.

Four hours later the game was full and I was stuck $800. I got pocket aces again, and I forgot to fold, again. An ace flopped and I folded on the river when a four-straight came and it was two bets to me.

Only because of the quest was I aware that I had lost with pocket aces four consecutive times in two states. Could it be that I must fold AA before the flop before I can ever win with them again? I was feeling pressure of the oddest sort, like I had to get this over with, like an impending coming-of-age torture.

Four hours later I was stuck $1600 with my last $400 on the table. The game was loud and reckless, every pot swollen. I was quiet, and snug, waiting for a hand, waiting for a flop. My last money would not go in wrong.

The first player folded. The second player folded. I was next. I looked at my cards. And there they were. One red and one black.

Time conveniently stopped so that I might have a little chat with my selfs.

What are you waiting for? Do it!

I can't. I'm stuck too much.

Do it!

I can't. I just can't. I never could. I know that now.

D O I T ! !

I did it.

I mucked those aces and I felt a surge of confidence and power. I bolted from my chair and over to the no-limit game, where Alex was.

I whisper-screamed in his ear. "Alex! I finally did it! Just now! Like we talked about! I folded aces before the flop!"

Alex is all about results. He asked, "Would you have won the pot?"

What a question. Like I cared! I went back to the $20-40 game and sat down and hid behind my cap bill because I was afraid to look anyone in the face because I was very much aware that the chemistry in my brain had been recently and drastically altered by a recent and drastic event, and that the ends of my mouth were stretched toward my ears. I couldn't make it stop, even if I wanted to, which I didn't.

Eventually I regained sufficient control of my face so that I could speak. I started babbling, as if I had won some pots. I was up out of my chair ten times in the next hour after not moving for two. A few hours later, I got even, the game got tight, and I got in my car, still high.

It took two days for the buzz to wear off. Now, one month and a dozen pocket aces later, I can report that I am unchanged by what happened at noon on May 19, table 41, seat nine. I don't play or think any differently. I am like the moonwalker who returns to say that the earth is indeed round. I am like the wilderness dweller who returns to say that the forest is in fact full of trees. Nothing remains, in mind or matter, from my journey, except that now, when I lift the corners and see ace-ace, it's like a little wink.

[chinaski]

yea, i agree with Fozzie.

pocket aces is the strongest (preflop) hand you can have, so i wouldnt even question it.

[sabotai]

I say you fold them. If you were sure you'd only get one caller for your all-in, then yeah, I'd obviously say you'd call. But if you were sure, and you sound like you were, that'd youd get a 4-way pot going, I just don't think the odds warrent an all-in bet. You lose, you're out and the odds simply aren't there, even with pocket aces (and especially since it's still early in the tournament).

[SirFozzie]

ESPECIALLY in tournament play at low levels of people (1-4 table tournaments)

Why? Because if the Aces hold up which they usually will, you knock a player out. In the lower person tournies, that brings you closer and closer to a finish in the money.

With good odds to knock THREE players out of the money? Hell yes. ESPECIALLY in a 1 table (33% of the crowd, Plus you then have 44% of the money)

AA holds up heads up 75%

AA "only" wins 35% of the time against nine standard hands.

So against 4? I'd say your odds are better than 50%

[rkmsuf]

doubtful you'd have another chance to make a big move like that. I'd try and take down the pot on the flop...

without the interaction of a live table you have to play the cards and in this case even a 35% chance to go from 11k to 40k is probably worth it since you could win it from there...

[Subby]

With the other players coming in so strong you have gotta assume there are one, if not two Big Slicks out there...which means you are stuck with a strong pair or if you get lucky, trip aces...

A pair is a pair after all, and chip position being what it is I don't see the harm in getting out of that potential clusterfuck while there was still time.

[Radii]

I think you're more of a favorite than you give yourself credit for. At worst, you are a 50% favorite to win the hand 4-handed. If you know someone well enough to put them on aces, of course, fold. At best you split and at worst you lose it all. But barring that rare happening, you're going to win this hand more than 50% of the time. If you can put someone on say, AKs or something like that, then you are moving back towards being a dominant favorite, even 4 handed...

If you don't know any of your opponents at all and are just putting them on 4 random hands... if it were me, I'd say if 3 random people are going all in pre-flop, one of them probably has an ace, if that is true i'm probably a 60% favorite in the hand, even with 3 other opponents, and I'm going to go all in as well. But that's possibly just me talking my way into a call here...

I don't think I would say it's a mistake to lay down your aces here by any stretch. You could very possibly be only a 50% favorite here, and you, being one of the stronger players in the tournament, can simply outplay these people and wait for a better chance to push all in at a later time in the tournament.

pokenum enumerations below, unless I'm leaving out key hand combinations that might make you less of a favorite, I'd say you're 50-70% here.... now, if 4 others might stay in... get out, and fast. But with 3 others? I'm probably all-in pre-flop.



pokenum -h Ac As - Ks Qs - Jd Td - 5s 5c
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 554856 51.09 528291 48.65 2861 0.26 0.512
Ks Qs 136689 12.59 946458 87.15 2861 0.26 0.127
Jd Td 214004 19.71 869143 80.03 2861 0.26 0.198
5s 5c 177598 16.35 905549 83.38 2861 0.26 0.164

pokenum -h Ac As - Kh Kd - Jd Td - 5s 5c
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 545790 50.26 538094 49.55 2124 0.20 0.503
Kd Kh 188090 17.32 895794 82.49 2124 0.20 0.174
Jd Td 194815 17.94 889069 81.87 2124 0.20 0.180
5s 5c 155189 14.29 928695 85.51 2124 0.20 0.143

pokenum -h Ac As - Kh Kd - Qd Qc - Js Jc
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 588462 54.19 493125 45.41 4421 0.41 0.543
Kd Kh 204982 18.87 876605 80.72 4421 0.41 0.190
Qc Qd 153197 14.11 928390 85.49 4421 0.41 0.142
Js Jc 134946 12.43 946641 87.17 4421 0.41 0.125

pokenum -h Ac As - Ah Kd - Ad Qc - Js Tc
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 787437 72.51 285497 26.29 13074 1.20 0.729
Kd Ah 59603 5.49 1013331 93.31 13074 1.20 0.059
Qc Ad 56582 5.21 1016352 93.59 13074 1.20 0.056
Js Tc 169312 15.59 913796 84.14 2900 0.27 0.157

pokenum -h Ac As - Ah Kd - Qd Qc - Js Tc
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 686880 63.25 386991 35.63 12137 1.12 0.637
Kd Ah 58881 5.42 1014990 93.46 12137 1.12 0.059
Qc Qd 180581 16.63 902226 83.08 3201 0.29 0.167
Js Tc 147529 13.58 935278 86.12 3201 0.29 0.137

[rkmsuf]

Originally posted by Subby
With the other players coming in so strong you have gotta assume there are one, if not two Big Slicks out there...which means you are stuck with a strong pair or if you get lucky, trip aces...

A pair is a pair after all, and chip position being what it is I don't see the harm in getting out of that potential clusterfuck while there was still time.

it's not the harm, it's the benefit. You have to be aggressive to win that game and if you are not aggressive with AA when will you be?

Even if they have AK you are a huge favorite...stuck with a strong pair?????

[Subby]

Originally posted by rkmsuf
it's not the harm, it's the benefit. You have to be aggressive to win that game and if you are not aggressive with AA when will you be?

Even if they have AK you are a huge favorite...stuck with a strong pair?????

Maybe I have just lost too many hands where I started out with pocket aces :)

[rkmsuf]

you can always make a case for laying any hand down since you are always right..ie you are always still in the tourney...

[Radii]

If someone has AK you are even more of a favorite, you have them dominated badly. If I am in a multi-way pot with AA my best possible scenario is to see AK and AQ. AA is a 75% favorite to win against AKs and AQs, but only a 65% favorite to beat KQs and JTs...

[sabotai]

In my reply, I had complete forgot the amount of people in the tournament. :) (Probably since I'm used to the 1000+ people variety online, in which case knocking out 3 people..whoopie!..who cares..)

Anyway, a chance to knock out 3 people in a 27 person tournament adds a factor into the decision.

To be honest, now that I've thought about it more, I honestly don't know what I'd do. For me 50% still isn't good enough in that situation (for me personally). I understand you have to be aggressive, but I prefer to be aggressive with 1 player, not 3. 50% chance to win...that's still 50% chance to lose and be out of the tournament.

[Radii]

50% wouldn't be good enough for me either early in a tournament like this... if I was well in control of myself, I would try very hard to lay them down... but knowing that if any of them had aces I was looking at 65% or so, I would probably end up talking myself into the all-in.

[QuikSand]

Interesting discussion so far.

I think the biggest element is that "I am among the stronger players in the field " (quiting myself from above). I'm not just some Joe tossing in my hundred bucks - I have a history ofmaking the final table and even the final twosome of this event. In my mind, this is an essential part of any argument that the AA should be folded.

If I believe I'm good enough to get into the money, say, 50% of the time on my own -- why do I want to let the vagaries of a huge early all-in determine my fate? Sure, I'd do it against one opponent.. but against three of them? Maybe I'm 50% to win that pot (those scenarios from abve seemed the most realistic to me if I did indeed get multiple callers)... that still doesn't guarantee me a spot in the money (though it would certainly help, understand that I'd only have about 15% of the total chips). But I'm 50% to get busted out right now and go home empty handed.

In my mind - there's an "opportunity cost" component that isn't being weighed in this discussion. (edit -- On re-reading - I see that Radii put that pretty succinclty above, and I had just missed it)

[QuikSand]

By the way, I absolutely agree with the notion that you play the aces in almost every circumtance. Cash game - no hesitation at all. Only in this very limited circumstance (or perhaps other strictly constructed tournament situations) can I manufacture the argument that a laydown is worth considering.

[QuikSand]

For what it's worth:


pokenum -h as ac - ad kd - qh jh - 7s 7c
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 565085 52.03 510552 47.01 10371 0.95 0.525
Ad Kd 120189 11.07 955448 87.98 10371 0.95 0.115
Qh Jh 205270 18.90 879405 80.98 1333 0.12 0.189
7s 7c 185093 17.04 899582 82.83 1333 0.12 0.171

[Radii]

what did you do? What happened? The more i read through this the more I realize you should almost absolutley fold here, but, I still doubt I would be able to do so myself.

[primelord]

I would have to say I would call this as well. With the type of hands that are likely to call an all in that early you are easily over a 50% favorite to win the pot even 4 handed. The worst hand for you to be up against in a pot like that would be low suited connectors. (5 6s being the worst) but I can't imagine anyone would call an all-in that early with a hand like that.

Most likely you are up against wired Ks and/or Qs and an AK or AQs situation. And any combination of those you have over a 60% chance of winning. I guess if you were certain you could make the final table even after laying that down (you would obviously have to take on the person who won the three handed all ins) then I can see room for hesitation, but you are the favorite to win soI say get the chips in while you can.

[Chubby]

if it's preflop i'd go all in no question. you have the strongest hand you can have. if you get outdrawn then you get outdrawn but if you slowplay and get outdrawn you'll get hosed just the same. with aces pre-flop i'd never fold. post-flop is another story...

[sabotai]

My entirely "I'm a chicken" logic is this.

In a cash game, 50/50 odds (roughly) to go 4x your money is easy to see. You'd call. (At least I would, because there's no chance in hell I'd be playing at a no limit table where I couldn't afford to go bust.)

But tournament play is different. Your goal is to make it to the final table and win. That is your goal everytime. In cash games, your goal is to make as much money as you can over a period of time. Going 50/50 in cash games with the reward being 4x does that. In tournaments, going all in with 50/50 odds does not get you to your goal. 50% of the time, you are out on that hand.

Basically, in my opinion, in tournaments, you just don't go all-in when you think the odds are only 50% in your favor. Then you're counting on just pure luck to win you the hand. (Even if it's 60/40, you're still pretty much counting on luck)

I agree with the notion that if QS knew he was one of the better players, he should just lay down the hand and not rely on luck to win him the hand and continue to play his game (that has gotten him to the final table many of times)

[digamma]

Originally posted by sabotai
My entirely "I'm a chicken" logic is this.

In a cash game, 50/50 odds (roughly) to go 4x your money is easy to see. You'd call. (At least I would, because there's no chance in hell I'd be playing at a no limit table where I couldn't afford to go bust.)

But tournament play is different. Your goal is to make it to the final table and win. That is your goal everytime. In cash games, your goal is to make as much money as you can over a period of time. Going 50/50 in cash games with the reward being 4x does that. In tournaments, going all in with 50/50 odds does not get you to your goal. 50% of the time, you are out on that hand.

Basically, in my opinion, in tournaments, you just don't go all-in when you think the odds are only 50% in your favor. Then you're counting on just pure luck to win you the hand. (Even if it's 60/40, you're still pretty much counting on luck)

I agree with the notion that if QS knew he was one of the better players, he should just lay down the hand and not rely on luck to win him the hand and continue to play his game (that has gotten him to the final table many of times)

I agree with this. I think I would be tempted to go all in, but I am probably too conservative a tournament player. Just as the plays for laying down aces pre-flop are rare, for me, going all in pre-flop early in a tournament is also quite rare.

[DukeRulesMAB]

What Quik says certainly makes sense, and this may well be a spot where you a very good player should lay down.

Say that you know you have made the final table 2/3 of the time with this group in the past, and find yourself in this spot. Even if you have a 50%+ chance, you still may well want to fold this. Why? Because before calling all-in (or essentially all-in), you had ~ a 33% chance of going home with nothing. Calling, you increase those odds unless you have at least a 70+% chance of winning the hand (because as pointed out earlier, winning at this stage does not by itself guarantee a money spot).

Of course, the information we don't have is how big are the initial stacks. If the $250 initial raise has already put a significant dent in your stack, then the initial 2/3 (or whatever) odds of placing will be decreased quite a bit if you fold. If the $250 is not that big of a chunk, then your inital odds remain largely intact, and the fold possibility is a viable option.

[Chubby]

Originally posted by sabotai
My entirely "I'm a chicken" logic is this.

In a cash game, 50/50 odds (roughly) to go 4x your money is easy to see. You'd call. (At least I would, because there's no chance in hell I'd be playing at a no limit table where I couldn't afford to go bust.)

But tournament play is different. Your goal is to make it to the final table and win. That is your goal everytime. In cash games, your goal is to make as much money as you can over a period of time. Going 50/50 in cash games with the reward being 4x does that. In tournaments, going all in with 50/50 odds does not get you to your goal. 50% of the time, you are out on that hand.

Basically, in my opinion, in tournaments, you just don't go all-in when you think the odds are only 50% in your favor. Then you're counting on just pure luck to win you the hand. (Even if it's 60/40, you're still pretty much counting on luck)

I agree with the notion that if QS knew he was one of the better players, he should just lay down the hand and not rely on luck to win him the hand and continue to play his game (that has gotten him to the final table many of times)


they why play any hand? hell lay down your pocket kings because "maybe" someone has big slick, or aces, or a hand which might end up in a straight or flush... at each stage of betting you are betting that you have the best hand. with aces pre-flop you KNOW you have the best hand. folding just because there is multiple people in the pot doesn't make anysense to me. particulary in this case where you'd be the 2nd to go all-in as there is no guarentee that the others will follow but even if you were last to go all in you HAVE to with aces.

[RPI-Fan]

I'm curious, QS.. What did you end up doing?

[sabotai]

they why play any hand? hell lay down your pocket kings because "maybe" someone has big slick, or aces, or a hand which might end up in a straight or flush...

1) There is a huge difference between just playing a hand and going all-in on a hand.

2) I didn't say you don't go all-in because MAYBE someone will beat you, I said you don't go all-in when you are reasonably sure your odds are about 50/50 (And QS did say he was pretty sure the other 2 people would call an all-in).

But now I have not one but two more reraisers, who I judge as pretty likely to call the all-in, no matter what I do.

Since QS has been playing a lot longer than I have, and he was there and I was not, I'll trust his judgement on his read of the two reraisers.

[Chubby]

Originally posted by sabotai
1) There is a huge difference between just playing a hand and going all-in on a hand.

2) I didn't say you don't go all-in because MAYBE someone will beat you, I said you don't go all-in when you are reasonably sure your odds are about 50/50 (And QS did say he was pretty sure the other 2 people would call an all-in).



Since QS has been playing a lot longer than I have, and he was there and I was not, I'll trust his judgement on his read of the two reraisers.

I agree about having to be confident in your reads to fold aces and any point in a hand. However, like I said, even if you are last to go all in (#4) you have to, you have the best hand. I just don't agree with the argument that since your odds are lower due to more people being in the pot that you should fold the best hand.

[primelord]

Originally posted by Chubby
I agree about having to be confident in your reads to fold aces and any point in a hand. However, like I said, even if you are last to go all in (#4) you have to, you have the best hand. I just don't agree with the argument that since your odds are lower due to more people being in the pot that you should fold the best hand.

Is there a point in time then when you wouldn't go all in? What if the situation became 5 handed or 6 handed? At that point you would clearly not be a favorite to when against the other combined hands. I agree that I think the call in Quik's case would be a good one because he is a favorite to win. (Unless there are low suited connectors that called in which he would be a slight under dog.)

It seems by your posts though that since AA is the best possible hand you think it is worth a call regardless of how many people are in the pot or what they are holding. Is that what you are saying?

[thealmighty]

If you feel you are better than most or all players in the tourney, emphatically, then I would fold. My reasoning is that the 50% chance to lose that early is too high compared to the % you feel you have to WIN the whole guacamole in the long run.

Whomever DOES win the pot, and puts themselves way up, does not matter as you are better than they and will, all things being normal, eventually overcome them. All in early gives Joe Schmo a chance to squirrel out with no chance of betting him out pre-river.

Course, I am no great player, but that's my $.02

[Chubby]

Originally posted by primelord
Is there a point in time then when you wouldn't go all in? What if the situation became 5 handed or 6 handed? At that point you would clearly not be a favorite to when against the other combined hands. I agree that I think the call in Quik's case would be a good one because he is a favorite to win. (Unless there are low suited connectors that called in which he would be a slight under dog.)

It seems by your posts though that since AA is the best possible hand you think it is worth a call regardless of how many people are in the pot or what they are holding. Is that what you are saying?

pre-flop w/aces? i'd go all in pre-flop with aces every time knowing I had the best hand. If i get outdrawn then it wasn't meant to be but I can't ask for anything more than to get all my chips in the pot before the flop with aces.

chances are, people won't be going all in with suited low connectors anyways. THO i have been seeing some strange all ins lately.

how would you not be the favorite? you'd have the best odds out of all lthe possible hands, granted it won't be over 50% due to the # of handsin the pot but you'd have the highest % no doubt as you have the best hand possible.

[primelord]

Originally posted by Chubby
pre-flop w/aces? i'd go all in pre-flop with aces every time knowing I had the best hand. If i get outdrawn then it wasn't meant to be but I can't ask for anything more than to get all my chips in the pot before the flop with aces.

chances are, people won't be going all in with suited low connectors anyways. THO i have been seeing some strange all ins lately.

how would you not be the favorite? you'd have the best odds out of all lthe possible hands, granted it won't be over 50% due to the # of handsin the pot but you'd have the highest % no doubt as you have the best hand possible.

You would have the best chance of winning the pot of any of the other hands however you wouldn't be the favorite against the field. In other words the majority of the time you will lose that hand. I can't see making a call early in the tournament where the majority of the time you will go bust. Despite the fact you are going in with the best starting hand.

[Chubby]

Originally posted by primelord
You would have the best chance of winning the pot of any of the other hands however you wouldn't be the favorite against the field. In other words the majority of the time you will lose that hand. I can't see making a call early in the tournament where the majority of the time you will go bust. Despite the fact you are going in with the best starting hand.


that's fine, lay down your aces so my kings can win :D

i see your point but I simply won't be bet out of a big pot when I have the best hand. i don't have the #'s for pot odds (tho it's in my Phil book but I can't find it) but I can't imagine the pot odds would dictate throwing them away (could be wrong who knows).

[Esquared1]

I think this whole discussion speaks to my answer of "depends."

Clearly, being the next after an "all-in", and with two others with significant contributors in the pot, to me it depends most on what the position of the next two people are.

To me, there are two things to consider- what their chip position is, and their likelihood to play/fold. If you play, the play would be to go all in, since you won a decent pot, you probably had more than each of the next two players. Therefore, you would make sure you are putting in them in position for all their chips. If they would go in, you might have enough to rally back with the refund.

To that end, I was in a very similar situation last time, with pocket kings. The three others were the three most loose,and I was probably the most tight. I was right after the "All in" and before two others who have already bet 30%-40% of their stack already.
I mucked the KK.

As it turned out, they had KQ suited, JJ, and AT suited, and the KQ won with QQ and a board pair. Therefore, I would have won the pot.

I looked at it that the winner was holding the money for me, since if he was willing to go all in with KQ on a four way pot, he would give much of it when it was just him and I. As it turned out, he squandered his big chip lead, and he ended up 7th out of 16. I was on the bottom 3rd for a long time, but that very same guys helped me get back in the tourney later on.

I am confident that I would have won the whole thing had I called, but a 2nd worked out well. I would take consistant 2nd place over a few 1st's and a majority of early exits.

That's my 2 cents worth, at least.

[QuikSand]

Well, in telling this story, I confess I sort of meshed two scenarios together. This actually happened to me while playing in a small three table tournament on the Wilson Software Tournament Hold 'Em game.

However, I set up that tournament to simulate the setup of a game that I regularly play in for real - three tables, no limit, $10K initial stacks. In that ebvironment, I would be able to say the things about myself in the setting -- that I believe myself to be among the strngest players in the field, and give myself a solid chance to make the money any given tournament. (I'm not sure about 50%, but certainly a pretty good chance)

So, in essence, as I related the story, I transplanted the hand that actually happened to me in the computer sim, and I told it as though it had happened to me in my real game which I was deliberately mimicking.


So, what happened? I called. Four-way all-in showdown, ad the other two players did indeed call. My aces were second best to seat #6, who was playing suited AK, and made his flush. I got busted from $11,000 chips to about $800, and was promptly out of contention.

But, the best result from playing moneyless poker simulations is that I'm thinking about it afterwards. And I think that in a real-life situation, set up the way I describe it initially, I'd fold the aces and stake my claim to my longer-term chances.