MOTS/PIC question ???

[Jets80]

Anyway to tell if another team went MOTS or PIC in one of their games? (not against me)

Asking becasue I want to know if one of my future opponents PIC'ed his last game.

[RPI-Fan]

There's no way to tell... you can look at this midfield ratings and see if there are any changes that would represent the pattern you're looking for, but even that is relatively unreliable.

[Desnudo]

It can be pretty easy to tell if they have consistently gotten one level of midfield for most of the season. For example you see six weeks of solid then one week of excellent. I'd take that as a pretty good indicator of a MOTS, assuming they haven't bought any players. Passable would equal a PIC. Not 100%, but the more consistent their ratings are, the easier it is to tell.

Edit: I'd also combine this with judging whether or not you would have MOTS'd or PIC'd the same game.

[NAIWF]

I disagree with Desnudo. 6 straight solids and an excellent could mean better TS or a few trainee pops. You usually want to see at least a 2-4 level better midfield than their average to be sure it was a MOTS.

[Vince]

2-4 is quite a severe jump...I'd only expect that if the change is from a few weeks of PIC to one week of MOTS.

Which could be very well what you are trying to point out, and if so, I apologize for trying to nit-pick :) I just imagine that some divisions include games that would merit neither a MOTS nor a PIC, and therefore there could be some normals thrown in there for good measure.

[Desnudo]

Originally posted by NAIWF
I disagree with Desnudo. 6 straight solids and an excellent could mean better TS or a few trainee pops. You usually want to see at least a 2-4 level better midfield than their average to be sure it was a MOTS.


Well we all have our methods. But better TS would have meant he was PIC'ing before which would have shown in a rating drop. I don't know how you'd get a +4 increase in midfield from a MOTS unless you PIC'd every game to that point and had never shown a normal rating.

Also training pops mean nothing. The one week difference between a high solid and low excellent is minimal and is the same as one week of training if the player doesn't pop.

Anyway, if you approach it logically, then you can get an idea if he MOTS'd or not. If I see a one level increase in midfield that the team hasn't hit before, plus it's a game where I think I would MOTS, then you can make a good call that the team probably did MOTS.

[NAIWF]

Well, I'll just give you my own games this season to show you what I mean. . .

Cup 1 - road PIC = inadequate
League 1 - home PIC = passable
Cup 2 - B team/road PIC = poor
League 2 - B team/road PIC = weak
Cup 3 - home PIC = solid
League 3 - home MOTS w/ midfield injury = (high) formidable
Cup 4 - B team/home PIC = poor
League 4 - road PIC = inadequate
League 5 - home MOTS = (low) formidable
League 6 - home PIC = inadequate
League 7 - road normal = passable
League 8 - home PIC = solid

As you can see I've varied from poor (3) to formidable (9) with different combinations. However, if I'd PIC'd the 3rd league game, I'd probably have seen even higher ratings in the two games after it.

My point is, that going by Desnudo's logic, my average would be inadequate/passable, so a solid would indicate a MOTS, but the fact is I just PICed a solid with composed TS.

My series is set up where the top 4 are about 25x better than the bottom four, meaning you've got 8 easy PICs and 6 games that you really need to strategize for. I'll be PICing again Sunday, I might toss a game the week after and PIC that, then PIC another scrub and MOTS # 2. If I do that, I may be able to hit formidable on the road.

If you were playing against me, and thought a one level jump was sufficient, you'd get a false positive on what I'm doing because I've PICed 9 times, MOTSed twice and played normal only once.

[Desnudo]

I never said anything about averaging ratings. I'm talking about looking for consistency then a jump. Your ratings are very inconsistent. My whole argument is based on ratings consistency. You are right, if there's a lot of variance in the ratings, then it is very difficult to tell.

[dacman]

It takes a lot of research to really get a feel for if a team MOTS'd or not. You have to look back several games, probably at least a half a dozen, and get a feel for "average" midfield rating, whether or not the best IM's and wingers were playing, what kind of form the IM's were in (i.e. star ratings), whether or not any players were sent off, home vs. road, what the team trains (a 1 level difference for a PM trainer is not that notable), any newly acquired IM's, offensive defenders, wingers TM, defensive forwards, etc. etc.