(Democrat Primaries) I know quick swings are normal.. but...

[SirFozzie]

DAMN, this is turning into a goofy ass start to the political year. Before the Iowa Caucus, Massachusetts senator John Kerry was in I think 4th or 5th in the New Hampshire polls.. but today.. (from a Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll) (starting from last Friday and Saturday up till now, each poll is 400 likely voters, margin of error is +/- 5%)

Friday-Saturday
Dean 30%
Clark 25%
Kerry 13%
Edwards 7%
Lieberman 7%

(Undecided 12%)

Saturday-Sunday
Dean 31%
Clark 23%
Kerry 14%
Edwards 9%
Lieberman 6%

(Undecided 13%)

Sunday-Monday
Dean 28%
Clark 21%
Kerry 20% <--- Wow.
Edwards 8%
Lieberman 3%

(Undecided 14%)

Monday-Tuesday
Kerry 27% (Nearly doubles in two days. What the hell?)
Dean 24%
Clark 17%
Edwards 9%
Lieberman 4%

(Undecided 16%)

Tuesday/Wed
Kerry 31%
Dean 21%
Clark 16%
Edwards 11%
Lieberman 4%

(Undecided 16%)

I mean.. wow.. I guess Dean's ranty-ravey-gonutty speech after the Iowa caucus loss hit him harder then the 3rd place finish. If he finishes 2nd in New Hampshire, he's in trouble (he needs a win to keep the fundraising high, to counteract the amount of mud that's been flung at him from both the Dems and the Republicans..). If he finishes 3rd in New Hampshire, if Clark or Edwards catches him, wow. That might shut him down even before the Feb 3 "Super Tuesday" mega primary.

As things stand, Dean needs to stop Kerry's rush and knock his underpinnings out, and pick up the undecided vote. With this much momentum, though, it's going to be tough to do.

[BishopMVP]

According to all the polls here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/new_hampshire_polls.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/new_hampshire_polls.html) that poll is putting Kerry high in the margin of error. Not to say that he isn't gaining momentum or Dean has serious problems. Also, it is highly unlikely Dean drops out. He does have better national support, fundraising and groundwork than any other candidate, and is miles ahead of Kerry and Edwards in the fundraising and groundwork aspects.

[SirFozzie]

One thing I noticed that the polls that have a longer "track time" (back to 1/18) have Dean higher on that web site you posted, while the 1/19-1/20 only ones are Kerry higher.

[Peregrine]

I think Dean's "raving lunatic" speech definitely hurt him. I read that already some New Hampshire state politicians who are pretty influential have withdrawn their endorsements of him.

[Ben E Lou]

Maybe the "raving lunatic speech" was a wake-up call to the Dems that Kerry is far more electable (sp?) than Dean.

[Peregrine]

Not only that, Skydog, but I think a lot of Dems were very unhappy with the idea that Dean was going to be their nominee, and are showing their willingness to back any other horse at this point. I just don't see any way that Dean could be elected, and it's going to be pretty tough for any of the candidates.

[BishopMVP]

One thing I noticed that the polls that have a longer "track time" (back to 1/18) have Dean higher on that web site you posted, while the 1/19-1/20 only ones are Kerry higher.
The Suffolk one (19/20) has Dean in the lead, but it would only go towards amount of the trend rather than there being a trend itself.

I don't know how electable Kerry is. More electable than Dean? Of course, but I live in Massachusetts and just don't like him. I've seen him described as the northern Al Gore, and that seems right to an extent.

As for Dean, the press has really turned on him in the last couple days. There was even an op-ed in the NYT claiming that the Clintons were behind it, trying to keep control of the Democratic Party. In his speeches since Iowa, he seems to be saying that now the Democrats have sttod up to Bush, he'll start running on the issues, but then he is basically indistinguishable compared to a Kerry (who has experience) and Edwards (a Southerner and also the only likable Democratic Candidate.) I wouldn't be too surprised if he decides to run as a 3rd-party candidate in November, which will all but guarantee JoninMiddleGA's prediction of an electoral landslide. Then again, the way the swings have gone lately, he could end up winning NH and Arizona and becoming the Dem nominee (kind of hedged my bets there ;) .)

[SirFozzie]

Here's something interesting about Dean's rant after the Iowa caucuses. You'd expect attacks from just about all sources.. liberal sources tied to other candidates, Republicans wanting to knock Dean down and reduce his momentum, even some uninterested third parties would consider it going a bit too far.. but.. read this..

"Tonight, after the caucus results, Dean gave his speech to the troops. Yes, he was over the top, but he wasn't speaking to America, he was speaking to us, the Deaniacs," one writer said.

"Having said that, I feel I must say this. ... He should never broadcast a speech like that again. Never. Ever. Again."

The source of this comment? Dean's own weblog.

Geez..

[Peregrine]

There was even an op-ed in the NYT claiming that the Clintons were behind it, trying to keep control of the Democratic Party.

I always got the impression that the Clintons were backing Arkansas candidate Clark.

[Jon]

I always got the impression that the Clintons were backing Arkansas candidate Clark.

Which is why, I think, they wanted Kerry to win Iowa. This thing is about to get nasty, whatever happens. Even if Dean doesn't N.H., but somehow finishes second, he won't quit. It really depends how Clark and Edwards do.

Dean, Clark, and Edwards are running national campaigns. Kerry really isn't. He didn't put himself on the ballots on the 2/3 primaries, I believe, which opens up the South for Clark or Edwards. So, even if Dean doesn't win N.H., but does reasonably well in the South, he'll be picking up delegates. What I think this means is that it's going to be a long and bumpy ride to whomever gets the nomination.

As for the speech, the press blew the whole thing out of proportion b/c he didn't do as well as he was supposed to. The roar at the end was a little scary, but so is someone who doesnt' seem to be able to eat a pretzel properly. Since he's no longer the frontrunner (I dont' even think there really is one), they want to get in the mood to diss him.

But it will be interesting to see what happens.

(edited for tense).

[corbes]

Anger provides good fuel when you're the underdog. It's read as passion and "never-say-die".

But when you're the front-runner, you become "presidential", and the rules change. Dean missed that memo.

[Peregrine]

Very good point, corbes. I'd read the same thing in an op-ed piece somewhere, how Dean is a great underdog but not a good frontrunner.

[Jon]

Very good point, corbes. I'd read the same thing in an op-ed piece somewhere, how Dean is a great underdog but not a good frontrunner.

I've heard the same thing. He may have overcompensated (when he finished third) b/c he has a history of giving up and moving to the next thing as governor of Vt when it appeared that he wouldn't get what he wanted. I mean, he conceded that he finished third, at 9 PM Eastern time, well before even a third of the Iowa results were in.

But, let's face it, it's still early and anything can happen.

[corbes]

Very good point, corbes. I'd read the same thing in an op-ed piece somewhere, how Dean is a great underdog but not a good frontrunner.

That's probably the same (or similar) column I got the idea from. :D

[sterlingice]

"Tonight, after the caucus results, Dean gave his speech to the troops. Yes, he was over the top, but he wasn't speaking to America, he was speaking to us, the Deaniacs," one writer said.

"Having said that, I feel I must say this. ... He should never broadcast a speech like that again. Never. Ever. Again."
Sorry, I can't resist: "Whatcha gonna do when the Deanamania runs wild on you?!?"

SI

[rkmsuf]

I think Dean's "raving lunatic" speech definitely hurt him. I read that already some New Hampshire state politicians who are pretty influential have withdrawn their endorsements of him.

He was heckled mercilessly in Manchester a couple days ago. To the point he actually broke out into song and sang the national anthem in the middle of his speech to drown out the hecklers...

[SackAttack]

I keep reading about this 'raving lunatic' speech, but I was playing Rainbow Six 3 instead of watching the SOTU address and the aftermath. Is there a transcript of this anywhere?

[GrantDawg]

I keep reading about this 'raving lunatic' speech, but I was playing Rainbow Six 3 instead of watching the SOTU address and the aftermath. Is there a transcript of this anywhere?
It was the speech given after conceding the Iowa caucus. I think several of the news agencies still have link of it on their websites. You need to see it, as the transcript will not convey how insane he seemed.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I keep reading about this 'raving lunatic' speech, but I was playing Rainbow Six 3 instead of watching the SOTU address and the aftermath. Is there a transcript of this anywhere?

If you can get it to work, I believe there's a copy at
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=index&i=index.20040119&cid=1033

[SackAttack]

It worked, but it was just a short clip. I dunno if it was the whole speech, or if the rant-y, rave-y part was even in it, or what.

[sabotai]

Yeah, it was in the clip. I think people are overblowing that little speech.

[Bonegavel]

Don't the results in Iowa underscore how useless polls are?

[astralhaze]

Dean is toast.

[Easy Mac]

which kind of toast, because some toast tastes great.

And I've een invited to help out with NBC's coverage of the Democratic debate here in SC. Should be fun, I get to eat a table away from Brokaw.

[sabotai]

Don't the results in Iowa underscore how useless polls are?

In a word...Yes.

And how many times has the inner of the Iowa Caucus gone on to win the nomination?

[rkmsuf]

which kind of toast, because some toast tastes great.

And I've een invited to help out with NBC's coverage of the Democratic debate here in SC. Should be fun, I get to eat a table away from Brokaw.

"Tragedy today, as former President Gerald Ford was eaten by wolves. He was delicious."

"A fireball destroyed France today, and Gerald Ford is dead." Now, what are the odds of that?

"Gerald Ford was mauled senselessly by a circus lion in a convenience store."

"Hola bambe, hungala dimba Gerald Ford... *click* *click* *click* *click* ...hola bambe, allah bumba bubba hulla humba hey."

[Easy Mac]

ummmmm... number 3

[JonInMiddleGA]

In a word...Yes.

And how many times has the inner of the Iowa Caucus gone on to win the nomination?


from http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/liveonline/00/politics/freemedia012000.htm

Since the Iowa caucuses went big time in 1976, 2 times the GOP winner was not the nominee - George Bush in 1980 and Bob Dole in 1988, and the 1976 and 1996 Iowa winners (Ford and Dole) won the Republican nomination but lost in November.

On the Demoratic side, only Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1996 went wire-to-wire, winning Iowa on the way that year to the White House, though it should be noted that Carter technically ran behind "Uncommitted" in 1976. As for Iowa winners who were not nominees, there was Gephardt in 1988 and Harkin in 1992.

[Jon]

Dean, Clark, and Edwards are running national campaigns. Kerry really isn't. He didn't put himself on the ballots on the 2/3 primaries, I believe, which opens up the South for Clark or Edwards. So, even if Dean doesn't win N.H., but does reasonably well in the South, he'll be picking up delegates. What I think this means is that it's going to be a long and bumpy ride to whomever gets the nomination.


I have to admit that I was incorrect on this part. It's not that he's not on the ballot, he just has no organization there. But, I still think it will be interesting to see what happens.

It looks like it's turning into an established v. unestablished Democrats battle.
Despite his "rantics," Dean is the only legitimate candidate, besides Republican Clark, who is not an "established old-school" Democrat. He never participated in real democratic events or meetings. In a way, I think the more insider Dems are threatened by him, especially since the nominee chooses the shape of the party for the next election cycle. I'm sure that Terry McAuliffe doesn't want Dean to get the nomination, as do many other old-line democrats, b/c of the potential shakeup.

[Butter]

"Tragedy today, as former President Gerald Ford was eaten by wolves. He was delicious."

"A fireball destroyed France today, and Gerald Ford is dead." Now, what are the odds of that?

"Gerald Ford was mauled senselessly by a circus lion in a convenience store."

"Hola bambe, hungala dimba Gerald Ford... *click* *click* *click* *click* ...hola bambe, allah bumba bubba hulla humba hey."

You forgot my favorite:

Director: You should use "senseless" in there.

*Gerald Ford shot dead today, at the senseless age of 84.

[rkmsuf]

You forgot my favorite:

Director: You should use "senseless" in there.

*Gerald Ford shot dead today, at the senseless age of 84.

Tom Brokaw: Alright. "Gerald Ford dead today, after jupming out of an office building, senselessly ."

Voice Of Producer: That's a nice touch. Okay, moving on.

Tom Brokaw: Okay. "Gerald Ford dead today, from an overdose of crack cocaine."

Voice Of Producer: Good, good... Next.

Tom Brokaw: Alright. [ graphic of Gerald Ford and a commuter plane ] "Stunning news from Michigan, as former President Gerald Ford was chopped into little bits by the propeller of a commuter plane."

Voice Of Producer: Good. One take.

[-Mojo Jojo-]

Dean got hurt in Iowa, but Clark and Lieberman got hurt worse. They needed Dean to win in Iowa because they had just spent the past month positioning themselves against him in New Hampshire, each trying to set themselves up as the anti-Dean. They needed Dean to win so Kerry and Edwards would be unattractive. Well guess what, now Kerry's the anti-Dean, and Edwards is drawing people too. Lieberman is completely finished. Clark got 0 delegates in Iowa and is staring a 4th place finish in NH in the face.

Meanwhile if Dean can hold on to 2nd place in NH, the bleeding stops and he's sitting there with the most money and the best national organization. If that happens we're probably looking at a long race between Kerry, Edwards, and Dean, with Edwards hitting his spending cap (the curse of federal matching funds) and dropping out in late Feb, and the nomination finally being decided between Dean and Kerry in March.

If Dean stumbles through NH, he's probably finished, then Clark comes into play, and who can say what happens then...

[QuikSand]

It's always fascinating to try to make projections abotu numbrs of delegates and so forth this early in the primaries. The simple fact of the matter is that "big mo" is what it's all about, and that even the true believers among the party faithful just like to back a winner. It's still quite possible that we have a clear front runner (Kerry) on Tuesday night after New Hampshire, and the whole thing is basically over. That's not necessarily my prediction, but it's well within the realm of possibility.

[Hammer755]

Is it just me, or would that clip sound more appropriate coming from this guy:

http://www.laffstop.com/images/Comedians/Bobcat%20Goldthwait.jpg

[Easy Mac]

I was thinking more this guy

http://www.wrestlepalooza.com/images/flair.jpg

[Jon]

It's always fascinating to try to make projections abotu numbrs of delegates and so forth this early in the primaries. The simple fact of the matter is that "big mo" is what it's all about, and that even the true believers among the party faithful just like to back a winner. It's still quite possible that we have a clear front runner (Kerry) on Tuesday night after New Hampshire, and the whole thing is basically over. That's not necessarily my prediction, but it's well within the realm of possibility.

What could also happen is that Kerry, who is now looked upon as the frontrunner, fails the expectations game. It would hurt him then since Massachusetts is next door.

[sterlingice]

I was thinking more this guy

http://www.wrestlepalooza.com/images/flair.jpg
The scary thing is that is what I first thought when I saw that clip.

SI

[BishopMVP]

http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1484529/20040122/aphex_twin.jhtml?headlines=true

List of the Dean remixes.

[tucker342]

Don't the results in Iowa underscore how useless polls are?


Pretty much.... 400 people is not a good representation of how a vote will turn out...

[sterlingice]

Pretty much.... 400 people is not a good representation of how a vote will turn out...
Depends on which 400 people. If they were perfectly randomly chosen, statistics bear out that 400 people give a pretty good picture. Active (I'd assume they are active since they voted in a primary) Democratic voters don't make up a random sampling.

SI

[SirFozzie]

The scary thing is that is what I first thought when I saw that clip.

SI


WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

(sorry, it's conditioning ;))

ObOnTopic: I stand by my original contention, that if Dean does not win NH, I don't think he has much of a chance. If Kerry takes NH, it could really snowball onto super Tuesday.

[SFL Cat]

I like what Letterman did with the Dean clip, nice touch adding the exploding head at the end.

[Easy Mac]

Thats what Kimmel did too. And he also had a "geography" contest between Dean and Bush... classic.

[BishopMVP]

In the part of the debate I saw tonight, it seemed Lieberman did the best. Taking the stand that the Iraq war was just can only help him when competing against 7 other candidates who are either entirely against the war or have conflicting positions on it. Also, bringing up the fact Rove called him the toughest possible contender was a good move. While many of his positions aren't in line with the left-wing anti-Bush and anti-Iraq philosophy that seemed to be driving at least part of the primary voting and were responsible for Dean's dominant pre-Iowa position, there may be enough like-minded voters in the primaries to help him slice out 25-30% of the electorate, which may be enough to win the thing in as crowded a field as there is now. I'm interested to see if he picks up points in the polls the next couple days.

[-Mojo Jojo-]

Lieberman says some good things (scored big when he refused to take the bait when Jennings tried to get him to bash Kerry and Dean), but he continually shoots himself in the foot droning on about how the Republicans can't attack him on this issue or that issue or this issue or that issue. And why can't they attack him? Because he's the same as they are.

Joe, you may be right that being the same as the Republicans makes it hard for them to attack you, but it's also the reason no Democrats will vote for you.

[SirFozzie]

Update:

Here's the latest #'s in the New Hampshire race:

Kerry 34%
Dean 19%
Clark 14%
Edwards 11%
Lieberman 3%
Kucinich 1%

Undecided 17%

Even the average of the 8 polls at the website Bishop posted above now has Kerry with a more than 5% lead over Dean (28.3%-23.7%), with Clark the only other guy with a better than 10% average.

Of course, a lot depends on how things go tommorrow with the results of the debate.

[Ben E Lou]

I was thinking more this guy

http://www.wrestlepalooza.com/images/flair.jpgThat was my exact thought as well Easy.

[Easy Mac]

If the nature boy ran, I might just have to vote for him

Woooooooooooooooooooo

as long as the ultimate warrior was his running mate, of course.

[SirFozzie]

Nah.. Arn Anderson would be his Running mate.. Just think of what the debates would be like ;)

[sterlingice]

Nah.. Arn Anderson would be his Running mate.. Just think of what the debates would be like ;)
"And this question goes to you, Mr President. During the past four years, you have run up massive budget deficits and have enact-- OH MY GOD! I can't believe this! Vice Presidential canidate Arn Anderson has just come up from behind and hit President George "Dubya" Bush with a folding chair!"

SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

I don't believe that Arn would use a folding chair on Bush.

A tire iron is much more likely IMO.

[sterlingice]

I don't believe that Arn would use a folding chair on Bush.

A tire iron is much more likely IMO.
Oops. Sorry- haven't watched rasslin' in a long time, but yeah, that was his weapon of choice, wasn't it?

SI

[SirFozzie]

(Tries not to make comments about a "Tire 'arn" :))

[Easy Mac]

I couldn't vote for Flair if Anderson was his running mate.

Maybe we could get Sting and Lex Luger together.

[SirFozzie]

Bah. Flexy Lexy's heading off to jail more likely then not, due to his role in Miss Elizabeth's death... :(

[Buccaneer]

Sen. John Kerry may stress a centrist stance while trying to woo primary voters on the campaign trail, but his voting record resembles that of one of the most liberal lawmakers in the Senate — chief backer and Massachusetts' Democratic dean, Edward Kennedy

And this done not scare everyone???

[Easy Mac]

sounds like what every politician does, Bush included. Whats new?

[Buccaneer]

sounds like what every politician does, Bush included. Whats new?

What, being a protoge of Edward Kennedy?

[Easy Mac]

I was refferring to the fact that he is an excessive liberal but playing to the center. However, I find it far more scarier that Bush is a protege of Bush, Reagan, Cheney, and Rumsfield

[SirFozzie]

Sheesh. Dean's now dropped to a tie with Clark at 15%, Edwards at 12%, and Kerry at 35%.

Dean's campaign in freefall? Right now I think he has to win a majority on Super Tuesday to have any shot at all.

[BishopMVP]

And now Dean (along with Edwards) is picking up votes. With all the caveats that polls are unreliable (just look at Iowa) this is interesting. The Zogby poll even has Dean a mere 3 points back of Kerry. I think though that Clark can be officially pronounced dead by now. Any hope of him recovering in the South and West has been killed by Edwards' rise.

[SirFozzie]

That's one poll on MSNBC.

All the rest have Kerry Double Digit leads on Dean. Bizarre.

[rkmsuf]

That's one poll on MSNBC.

All the rest have Kerry Double Digit leads on Dean. Bizarre.

Just get these dorks and their flyers out of NH...

Got some taped to the deck, stuffed in the door, cd attached to a frisbee...

Got a freakin flyer on the car while in church even...

[Jon]

Just get these dorks and their flyers out of NH...

Got some taped to the deck, stuffed in the door, cd attached to a frisbee...

Got a freakin flyer on the car while in church even...

Where in N.H. are you?

[rkmsuf]

Nashua...

[BishopMVP]

That's one poll on MSNBC.

All the rest have Kerry Double Digit leads on Dean. Bizarre.
Actually 2, but it is odd. Looking at the polls http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/new_hampshire_polls.html , 2 have 3-5% leads for Kerry, 3 have 20 point leads and 1 has a 10% lead.

If you look at the ARG and the other tracking polls, Dean seems to have begun gaining again after his free-fall. It almost certainly won't be enough to win, but if he can lose by less than 10 points he could spin it as a win.

[rkmsuf]

Actually 2, but it is odd. Looking at the polls http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/new_hampshire_polls.html , 2 have 3-5% leads for Kerry, 3 have 20 point leads and 1 has a 10% lead.

If you look at the ARG and the other tracking polls, Dean seems to have begun gaining again after his free-fall. It almost certainly won't be enough to win, but if he can lose by less than 10 points he could spin it as a win.

Can't wait for the victory speech...

[QuikSand]

If you look at the ARG and the other tracking polls, Dean seems to have begun gaining again after his free-fall. It almost certainly won't be enough to win, but if he can lose by less than 10 points he could spin it as a win.

We've seen this trick work before. Remember the "comeback kid?"

[BishopMVP]

We've seen this trick work before. Remember the "comeback kid?"
Well, not personally, since I was 6 at the time, but I've heard about it. The most notable difference is that Clinton was heading to the South, where he had a clear advantage. If anyone in the field could replicate that, it would probably be Edwards, without the 'Comeback Kid' moniker of course. Edwards will almost certainly take South Carolina, and possibly Arizona.

[Bubba Wheels]

Its all moot anyway. No democrat stands a chance this year, which gives us all 4 more years of bought time to prepare for Hillary's reign. (Buy gold and stash supplies in the backyard/basement!)

[sterlingice]

Its all moot anyway. No democrat stands a chance this year, which gives us all 4 more years of bought time to prepare for Hillary's reign. (Buy gold and stash supplies in the backyard/basement!)
Funny, I feel the exact opposite. Something like 4 more years of claiming I'm from Canada before it might be safe to move back. Then again, if Hillary gets elected in 2008, I might as well just move up there and claim permanent residence.

SI

[BishopMVP]

In most of the polls today, it's about 37%-25% Kerry over Dean, with Edwards in 3rd at about 13% and Clark falling even more. Before Iowa, Kerry and Edwards had the momentum and pulled out much better results than the polls suggested. We'll see if Dean and Edwards can do the same in New Hampshire.