Toddzilla's Fantasy Baseball dynasty

[Toddzilla]

Instead of updating the thread on the discussion board with my exploits (found here (http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/showthread.php?t=21163)) , I figured I'd just keep track here in this dynasty with the hopes I'll get a few more views and maybe some sage advice from the braintrust here.

League Details
12-teams
keeper
auction-style, $260 budget
NL only
5 batting categories (HR, RBI, SB, Runs, OBP)
5 pitching categories (W, S. ERA, WHIP, K/9ip

I'll post other rules and details as necessary.

Background
The league has been together for a little over 10 years, and we've just added 2 new owners to replace one owner who left. I left the league a long time ago but rejoined last year to replace a deadbeat owner who never participated. As a result, my team was quite stinky, so I played for the future and picked up a handful off below-market guys. As we approach thr 2004 auction, I find my team with only 2 pitchers worth keeping, but they're good and well below cost.

[Toddzilla]

Who I'm Keeping
P Oswalt $11
P Hoffman $11
C Kendall $14
C Pierzynski $1
C Pratt $1
1B Choi $1
1B Dunn $20
3B Hillenbrand $10
OF Chipper Jones $35
OF Neviin $16
OF Redman $10
SS Wilson $1

I'm on the fence with Neifi Perez $10, Claudio Vargas $10, Paul Wilson $1, Jim Journell $1.

The rest of the team is poo-poo, so they're cut and not worth discussing.

Rosters must be 23 players:
9 Pitchers
2 C
1B, 2B, SS, 3B
1 corner guy, 1 middle inf. guy
5 OF, and 1 utility player

[Toddzilla]

Potential Strategery - I read a story about the LIMA method whereby you spend only $60 of $260 on pitching, build a killer offense to win all 5 batting categories, and get low-priced pitchers who will keep you at the top of ERA and WHIP while picking up enough W and S to finish in the middle of the pack. With the 5th category for pitching being K/9, it playes right into the LIMA strategy, so I should win that category, too.

To that end, I've spent $22 on 2 very good pitchers, leaving me $38 to spend on the other 7 guys.

UPDATE
I traded a draft pick for a $1 Kyle Farnsworth - the prototype LIMA pitcher. High strikeout, few walks, low ERA and WHIP. w00t!

I'll post my offensive strategy/thoughts next.
That leaves me with 6 pitchers and $36 to spend.

[Toddzilla]

Lima projected pitchers:

Pitcher Tm ? W L Sv IP H ER HR BB K ERA k/9 hr/9 k/bb
Alvarez,Wilson LA y 7 5 0 116 106 42 9 37 90 3.26 6.98 0.70 2.43
Ayala,Luis MON y 7 5 12 73 68 28 8 20 52 3.45 6.41 0.99 2.60
Cormier,Rheal PHI y 5 2 0 58 48 22 4 21 44 3.41 6.83 0.62 2.10
Cruz,Juan CHC y 9 7 0 131 117 57 11 56 119 3.92 8.18 0.76 2.13
Farnsworth,Kyle CHC y 2 4 2 58 50 21 6 26 64 3.26 9.93 0.93 2.46
Fikac,Jeremy MON y 2 4 2 58 48 22 4 15 42 3.41 6.52 0.62 2.80
Fuentes,Brian COL y 2 2 5 44 40 18 3 23 48 3.68 9.82 0.61 2.09
Harang,Aaron CIN y 9 8 0 131 136 61 13 31 93 4.19 6.39 0.89 3.00
Herges,Matt SF y 4 4 0 73 71 26 5 27 58 3.21 7.15 0.62 2.15
Hodges,Trey ATL y 5 6 0 102 95 44 10 42 90 3.88 7.94 0.88 2.14
Koplove,Mike ARI y 4 2 0 44 40 15 3 14 34 3.07 6.95 0.61 2.43
Lidge,Brad HOU y 4 2 10 58 46 22 5 27 64 3.41 9.93 0.78 2.37
Mota,Guillermo LA y 2 3 0 58 47 19 4 15 50 2.95 7.76 0.62 3.33
Myers,Brett PHI y 10 5 0 131 134 59 14 44 93 4.05 6.39 0.96 2.11
Neu,Mike FLA y 3 3 0 58 56 22 3 22 59 3.41 9.16 0.47 2.68
Redding,Tim HOU y 10 7 0 131 122 55 12 45 99 3.78 6.80 0.82 2.20
Rodriguez,Felix SF y 7 3 4 58 46 19 4 24 56 2.95 8.69 0.62 2.33
Valverde,Jose ARI y 2 3 4 58 47 24 6 27 72 3.72 11.17 0.93 2.67
Weaver,Jeff LA y 6 12 0 174 171 74 17 53 124 3.83 6.41 0.88 2.34
Worrell,Tim PHI y 3 2 5 58 51 21 5 23 53 3.26 8.22 0.78 2.30

[ShaefIllini]

DO NOT KEEP NEIFI PEREZ

[Toddzilla]

Offensive Keepers:

C Kendall $14
C Pratt $1
C Pierzynski $1
1B Choi $1
1B Dunn $20
SS Wilson $1
3B Hillenbrand $10
OF Chipper Jones $35
OF Redman $10
OF Nevin $16

Of this list, I still have reservations about Chipper, Dunn, and Kendall, all because of their price tag. Dunn I cannot cut because he's under contract, but I could probably trade him before he draft. Kendall to a degree and Chipper to a much larger degree are overpriced. However, there is going to be a ton of money at the draft and not many superstars to take. If I cut Chipper loose, I don't think I could get him back for under $35. If I cut Kendall loose, there are no marquis catchers out there available, so I'd be stuck with my 2 $1 guys, and Pratt projects at 100 PA at best. As for Dunn, well who knows which Dunn will show up this year. I can live with his lousy BA since we use OBP instead and he draws a ton of walks. But again, $20 is right at his projected value.

So, do I keep Kendall at $14, Chipper at $35, and/or Dunn at $20? Or do I cut/trade them befre the draft and use my money to hopefully pick out a bargain on draft day?

[Toddzilla]

A Wrench in the Works

I have Matt Herges as a holdover from last year, a FA pickup at $10. SF manager Alou said on Friday that if Rob Nen wasn't ready to pitch on opening day, Herges would get the first opportunity to close games.

Right now my staff stands at 3 players and $23:

Oswalt $11, Hoffman $11, Farnsworth $1.

Here are Herges's LIMA stats:

73 IP, 7.2 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 0.6 HR/9

All of them solid LIMA numbers - but he's $10. I've got $37 left to spend on the remining 6 guys on my staff, so do I roll the dice on this guy getting hot, saving a few the first week of the season, and then dealing him? Trade him now?

[Suicane75]

I would dangle him and see if anyone bites. Saves can be gotten cheaply from out of nowhere early in the season. If someone doesn't want him I would let him go.

[Toddzilla]

TRADE!!

I was offered Sean Casey $9 and Ben Sheets $11
for
Hee Seop Choi $1

Casey is a bit of an upgrade to Choi, IMO. Choi has the much bigger upside, no doubt, but his move to Florida is going to hurt his power numbers. Casey should be able to match Choi's power output and improve on OBP.

The addition of Sheets at $11 is gravy. He's got solid numbers, improving steadily year-to-year, and was a very good pitcher the last half of 2003.

Additionally, Choi is going to have to be signed to a contract before the season or else he becomes a free agent afther the year, so his cost to me this year would actually be $6. That $3 difference is negligible to me, so This trade is a no-brainer for me.

[Toddzilla]

Pitching

P Oswalt $11
P Sheets $11
P Farnsworth $1
P Hoffman $11

Needs: 5 P
Budget: $60 (LIMA)
Spent: $34
Money Remining: $26
Avg per player: $5.2

If I can pick up a few $1 middle relivers, I'll be able to $8 on the last 3 guys. If a major bargain jumps up that costs me $12-$15 that I can't pass up, I'll have to go over budget bu a few bucks, but the core-strategy will remain in place.

Batters

C Kendall $14
C Pierzynski $1
C Pratt $1
1B Casey $9
SS J. Wilson $1
3B Hillenbrand $10
OF Chipper $35
OF Dunn $20
OF Nevin $16
OF Redman $10

Needs: 2B, Cor, Mid, OF
Budget: $200 (LIMA)
Spent: $127
Money Remining: $63
Avg per player: $15.75

That's a pretty healthy average-per-player. I still may let Chipper and/or Kendall go to give me room to maneuver for the big boys (Bonds, Sosa, Wilson, Sexson all available at the draft). Draft inflation is going to be quite high at the start (upwards of 30%), so I may only be able to grab one superstar. I seem to be light on speed, so maybe someone like Furcal will fit the bill.

[Toddzilla]

TRADE!!

I get OF Juan Encarnacion $9 and 3B Aramis Ramirez $16
I trade OF Adam Dunn $20 and C Jason Kendall $14

So I shed $9 of salary and post slight increases in all hitting categories except OBA where I take it in the shorts.