OT: Two Hold 'Em Questions

[primelord]

QuikSand's first tournament recap got me thinking about a discussion a buddy of mine and I had recently. Let's say you are in the middle stages of a no-limit hold 'em tournament. You are in the middle of the pack in terms of chip count and you are dealt 7s 7c. Now an opponent at your table who has roughly the same size stack you do pushes all in pre-flop and it is folded around to you.

If you knew that he was holding Ah Kd and that everyone behind you would fold would you make that call? You are tha favorite to win the hand, but only a slight favorite. My buddy feels that if you knew for certain that was what your opponent was holding you would be crazy not to call. He says anytime you know you are the favorite to win all your money should be in the middle.

I think that is an easy fold. You are the favorite, but only a slight one. It's not nearly as easy a call as if you knew your opponent was holding say 3h 3d. So while I would be the favorite to win before the flop there just seem to be better opportunities to get all your money in where you are a much bigger favorite. What do you guys think?


Also can someone explain to me why 8s 8c is alightly more of a favorite heads up against Ah Kd than 7s 7c is? I am sure I am just missing something easy, but I can't figure out why that is the case. If anything I would think the 8's would be slightly lower since you can't make the very bottom of a straight with an 8 and still beat AK. What combinations am I missing that allow 8's to win slightly more often than 7's?

[rkmsuf]

I don't know I guess mathematically you'd stay with sevens but so what if you are favored slightly. I'd guess there would be better opportunites and situations more in your favor to make that play if you are middle of the road.

Losing badly, yes you go all in but why take a 55-60% chance when you don't have to?

[cthomer5000]

If you knew that he was holding Ah Kd and that everyone behind you would fold would you make that call? You are tha favorite to win the hand, but only a slight favorite. My buddy feels that if you knew for certain that was what your opponent was holding you would be crazy not to call. He says anytime you know you are the favorite to win all your money should be in the middle.
In a cash game I think the "anytime you know you are a favorite" rule could apply, but in a tournament. Is it worth risking elimination when you are barely a favorite?

[Malificent]

If you're middle of the pack in terms of chip count, why risk everything on a coin flip? If you're a low stack, you need to take that risk just to get yourself back in, I think. If you're a high stack, you might (depending on your goals) want to take that risk to give yourself a better chance of winning. But a middle stack, I don't see it.

[sabotai]

I say fold. I agree with cthomer that this seems to be a case where someone is applying ring-game strategy to tournements. If you always go all-in when you're the slight favorite, that's an easy way of not making it into a money position.

[digamma]

Perhaps I play tournaments too conservatively, but I tend to avoid pushing all in pre-flop, unless I basically have no other choice. This would be an easy fold for me.

[primelord]

Everyone seems to be at a consensus here. And as I stated above I agree. If you knew that was the hand your opponent was pushing in with it seems like an easy fold to me. There are just better spots to take a shot than that.

Now to switch up the argument a little if you didn't know what hand your opponent was pushing in with how high would the pair have to be in that situation for you to call? I am fairly certain most people would call with AA. Would you call with KK? QQ? How loe before you didn't think it was worth it?

[cthomer5000]

if I had KK and I *knew* had had KA, I'd call. QQ is basically the same as 77 or 88 (not a great idea).

With KK, when you could limit it to 3 cards that could beat you, you have to take those odds.

[sabotai]

KK....probably QQ. If I am out if I lose, I think I would stop there. If I had a good amount more than the all-in bet, I'd also play JJ.

[primelord]

if I had KK and I *knew* had had KA, I'd call. QQ is basically the same as 77 or 88 (not a great idea).

With KK, when you could limit it to 3 cards that could beat you, you have to take those odds.

Well clearly if you had KK and you knew he had AK you would call. KK is a pretty large favorite. I meant what pair would you not call with if you didn't know what he was holding?

[rkmsuf]

Well clearly if you had KK and you knew he had AK you would call. KK is a pretty large favorite. I meant what pair would you not call with if you didn't know what he was holding?

That depends on the player. If you've got some dork that goes with A 4 then you'd call most pairs. If it is a tight player you may assume he's got A and either JQK. I'd say J and above you'd have to consider it...

[primelord]

That depends on the player. If you've got some dork that goes with A 4 then you'd call most pairs. If it is a tight player you may assume he's got A and either JQK. I'd say J and above you'd have to consider it...

That's interesting. You and sabotai both responded the way most people play. Again I agree that I would probably call with around the same range of pairs. However I am not certain it is much better than calling the 77 against AK.

If someone pushes all in pre-flop in the middle of a tournament with about a mid sized stack I think you have to figure they have AA, KK, QQ, AK. I guess depending on how they play they could extend down to JJ, AQ, AJs, but that would be pretty aggressive with those hands.

So if we agree that is the likely range of hands they would push all in with you are behind with 3 of them and other than the AJ only a slight favorite over the rest. So if you would throw away 7's against AK it would certainly seem like you throw away J's when you are pretty certain they are on that range of hands.

Obviously there is more to it than that as you may have a very good feel about a guy at the table and he may be known to push all in on a bluff to try and steal a few pots, but overall it seems like it would be best to go ahead and toss J's and maybe even Q's away.

However I know I and most people I know would probably make that call with Q's every time and maybe even everytime with J's. I guess it's just something about face cards. :)

[Daimyo]

I think it really depends on how you rate your skill relative to the rest of the pack. If you think you're the best player left in the tournament you'd be silly to make that move because you're better staying alive as long as possible to let your skill take over. If you think you're the worst player left you have to go all in because you'll lose in the long run with taking chances.

[judicial clerk]

I would fold. I feel that it is too risky pre-folp to bet so high. Too much can happen. That Ace might be the high card that beats you. Unless you are way down, it is a mistake to rely too heavily on what you are holding in your hand. I think I have seen more pocket aces lose than win. people know that pocket aces are da bomb, and they bet it hard because they think they should. Then, they throw good money after bad even when they "know" I made my flush because they are vested in the pot and their "second place" aces. Now, if you are doing well and calling is not a lrge bet for you, you can consider it.

Maybe I am just saying this because i NEVER get pocket aces.

[sabotai]

jc, yes, I've seen that too. You have to learn when to lay down pocket aces. A lot of people never do.

[MJ4H]

Also can someone explain to me why 8s 8c is alightly more of a favorite heads up against Ah Kd than 7s 7c is? I am sure I am just missing something easy, but I can't figure out why that is the case. If anything I would think the 8's would be slightly lower since you can't make the very bottom of a straight with an 8 and still beat AK. What combinations am I missing that allow 8's to win slightly more often than 7's?

The main reason is that the board can double pair. For instance the board can come down QQ99x. If this happens, a higher pair has a smaller chance of being totally counterfeited than a lower pair. For instance, say you hold QQ. For this pair to be counterfeited by two pair on the board, the two pair on board would have to be EXACTLY Aces and Kings, whereas if you had only 77, and two pair higher than 77 ruin your pair.


Also, there is the kicker to that two pair. If you have 88, you have an eight kicker as opposed to a seven kicker.

[primelord]

The main reason is that the board can double pair. For instance the board can come down QQ99x. If this happens, a higher pair has a smaller chance of being totally counterfeited than a lower pair. For instance, say you hold QQ. For this pair to be counterfeited by two pair on the board, the two pair on board would have to be EXACTLY Aces and Kings, whereas if you had only 77, and two pair higher than 77 ruin your pair.

Ah that makes sense. I knew I was just missing something. Although that isn't quite as obvious as I thought it would be. Thanks! :)


Also, there is the kicker to that two pair. If you have 88, you have an eight kicker as opposed to a seven kicker.

I suspect this isn't an issue with my specific question as both the 7 and 8 kicker would lose to the A or K kicker when the board double paired above my pocket pair.

[MJ4H]

Right I was referring to general cases on that part.

[AgustusM]

the biggest question to me is how would you "know" he had A-K?

[MJ4H]

I think in this case it is pretty hypothetical, but it is possible that you have a pretty strong read on a guy and know with nearly 100% accuracy that that is what he has. Say you have watched him for a long time and know that he ONLY moves in with AK and never another hand, or he moves in with a certain hand motion with AK or something. But as I say, in the case mentioned above I'm pretty sure it is just hypothetical.

[QuikSand]

Getting "nearly 100% reads" is awfully hypothetical... especially with the kind of situation described. Pre-flop, no raise to the guy pushing all in, and he pushes in his stack.

Most players will do this witk AA, KK, and probably AK. Under what circumstances can you say with any certainty that this guy is playing AK and not a high pair? What kind of read could you possibly have to differentiate among those possibilities?

Unless the guy is playing in front of a giant mirror, I don't see how you can pinpoint the hand... rendering a call with a middling pair a foolhardy play against a solid player, unless your chip count dictates that you make this move in relative desperation.

[MJ4H]

Agreed here.

[sabotai]

I took it as a complete hypothetical as well.

[primelord]

It was of course a hypothetical situation. The point of the conversation I was having with my friend was if it was correct to call an all in raise if you knew you were the favorite no matter how slight of a favorite you were. The example hand was just what we came up with to create the slight favorite situation.

It's been my experience that most players will call an all in bet with almost any pocket pair of face cards. So I guess my point was that in most cases it isn't your best play even if you know for certain he is holding AK let alone the other range of cards he may push in with.

[MJ4H]

You just need to think about it like this. Would you be willing to flip a coin at this point in the tournament for all of your chips? There are times in the tournament where you should be willing to do this, but much more often, the answer will be no. I understand that it is not exactly a 50-50 proposition, but it is effectively the same, particularly if the AK is suited. Skillful players should wait until you have a bigger advantage before putting significant amounts of chips at risk, particularly all of them.

[QuikSand]

In a tournament setting, especially one with no rebuys, there is a dramatically declining incremental value of chips. So, no matter your general opinion on taking risks in poker... in such a circumstance it doesn't make sense to take (essentially) even money chances with your chips. Having double the chips does not at all make you twice as well off... especially fairly early in the event.

It's a fundamental diffrence between playing no-limit cash games, and no-limit tournament games -- the finality of the tournament environment makes a great difference. cthomer5000 hit this well in one of the very first responses above.

[AgustusM]

my point is since - you can never "know" what the other player has (unless you are watching ESPN) it is hard to make a intelligent decision on anything so specific.

he could just as easily go all in with aces where I would be a severe underdog - it is hard to assume any hand, much less an exact hand.

Now my inclination would be to fold unless I knew the player to be "wild" but even then I don't know how willing I would be to go all-in on pre-flop 7's unless I was already a short stack.

[CleBrownsfan]

GO to website cardplayer.com

They have a awesome poker odds calculator for Hold 'em

have fun ;)

[primelord]

So I think what we have concluded from this thread is that my buddy is at worst a moron, at best a bad card player, and possibly both. :)