Syrian and Iranian influence in Iraq

[BishopMVP]

There comes a report from DEBKA (http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=820) that the Syrian and Iranian government are behind much of the current fighting in Iraq through the organizations Hamas and Hezbollah. Now, DEBKA is a less than stellar source, and I"m guessing this report is, again, filled with half-truths and some unsupported accusations. But with some credible reports of Syrians and Iranians being arrested in the al-Mahdi army, I'm wondering what our response would be/should be if this situation is true. How much evidence and of what sort would we need to take action against these two countries (three if you count Lebanon) and what should it be? It is quite clear that at this point in time, we do not have the manpower in the area to consider anything big, and the administration probably does not have the political capital at home to really expand the war. So what should be done if these reports are true?

I'm looking for solutions on a hypothetical situation, but if you want to use this thread for any talk of the current situation on the ground in Iraq, feel free. There is either a rebellion or just all the forces that are opposing us finally coming out into the open and presenting the CPA with the opportunity to destroy them depending on who you read, so I figured there probably should be some thread discussing it.

[Sharpieman]

I was and still am more worried about Syria and Iran than I ever was about Iraq

[Leonidas]

Is there really any serious doubt Syria, Iran, and any other interest in that region wouldn't use this situation as a means to peck away at America? Even intelligent people opposing the war would have to acknowledge the likelihood of this possibility.

[BishopMVP]

So what do you propose we do? Sharpieman, do you think we should invade Syria and Iran? Apply economic sanctions? Increase aid to covert groups in the countries?

[Buccaneer]

Give them UN money for their oil and other goods?

[JonInMiddleGA]

So what should be done if these reports are true?

The same thing that will have to be done at some point whether these particular reports are accurate or not.

[-Mojo Jojo-]

Sell them weapons and give the proceeds to paramilitary groups in Central America?

[Sharpieman]

So what do you propose we do? Sharpieman, do you think we should invade Syria and Iran? Apply economic sanctions? Increase aid to covert groups in the countries?
I never had a solution. But I would like to point out that the growing western influence in Iran is making me very optimistic. There is a good number of young Iranians who believe that Iran should be a democracy, however the clergy and gov't of Iran has many restrictions on free speech.

Also I heard from my Persian friend that the Iranians are sending in something like 10,000 mullahs to Iraq to impose their beliefs on the people. The number could be way off but that is troubling if its true.

[BishopMVP]

Didn't want to start a new thread, so I picked the most recent semi-related one, even though these don't exactly fit the title.

Possible ties between the different bombings today, and accusations that other deadlier attack were prevented (or might not have been in the Israeli one.) The Jordanian plot has been confirmed many other places - http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=832

Another article about clashes near and possibly over the Syrian border - http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/breaking_9.html - I've seen at least one article say we're chasing some attackers across the border and killing/engaging them in Syria. Combined with reports of the same thing near the Iranian border, it seems like there is more going on than meets the eye.

[Fritz]

Are the Iranians or Syrians state sponsored?

[BishopMVP]

Are the Iranians or Syrians state sponsored?From my viewpoint, hard to tell. AFAICT, the majority are not, but Syria especially is turning a blind eye to foreign terrorists crossing over its border into Iraq, which has brought more than one US official to go public and suggest/urge a crackdown. Obviously the border patrols would be a part of each respective government, but other than one mention of one of our convoys being shot at, returning fire, and killing 2 Iranians in 'Elite' Revolutionary Guard uniforms on the Iraqi side of the border, I haven't seen anything about shootouts between either countries official forces and CPA forces.

A lot depends on how close you need "state sponsorship" to be. If you consider Hezbollah to be sponsored by Iran, then there appear to be many similar things in Iraq. Moqtada Al-Sadr himself has proclaimed he would be "the striking arm of Hamas and Hezbollah in Iraq" and some Iranian defectors are claiming that he has been supplied with over $70 million by the Iranian government, specifically Hashemi Rafsanjani in this case, who I think is around #3 or 4 in the hierarchy, to go along with Rafsanjani's recent statements that there are "scores to settle" (with America), and now is a good opportunity. There are also reports of many Al-Quds (elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard units) fighters entering Iraq, especially during the pilgramage the last couple months, and that they carried out the assassinations of certain sheiks favorable to the west who returned to Iraq after Saddam's downfall. It is also entirely possible that one ayatollah is funding a certain group that the rest of the Iranian government doesn't want funded.

So, really, I don't know. There's the caveat that some of what I read may be false/misleading. Hopefully the people who are actually dealing with this have better information and more information. There is no doubt in my mind that Syria and especially Iran are trying to destabilize Iraq as long as we're there and then implement the type of government most favorable to them, which in both cases is supported by very few of the Iraqis in polling. Is there conclusive proof at this point? Probably not. To me though, it is just amazing the more I read (on Iraq/the War on Terror/terrorists in general) how many of the same names and places keep popping up and how interconnected these groups are.

[Sharpieman]

Iran at this point is more of a enemy then Syria. Although Syria allows Hezbollah to freely cross boarders and do whatever it wants, the Syrian government is largely a secular state that condems and is actually vehemently opposed to Islamic fundamentalism. They outlawed the Musilim Brotherhood; a radical Islamic group that hopes that every Arab country becomes an Islamic state. Futhermore, Syria is liberalizing its government under the rule of Bashar al-Assad, the son of the recently deceased Hafiz al-Assad; a more conservative and authoritarian leader. In my view, a intervention or military campaign in Syria would be totally stupid at this point. Its a country that is slowly progressing and western ideals are starting to show themselves in the policies of the Syrian government. It would be nice if they stopped supporting Hezbollah, but that's just too soon right now.
Lastly we have to remember that the Syrian government is and has been a rival of Iraq and even was involved with the U.S. against Iraq in the Gulf War. Also the Government announced that it condems any attacks on westerners and has provided intelligence to the U.S. after Sept. 11th. Hezbollah has been a military pawn for the Syrian government during the Isreal-Lebenon conflicts.

[BishopMVP]

MEMRI's take, kind of a wrap-up - http://www.memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=IA17304

[BishopMVP]

I have no idea about the source, but this kind of confirms what I suspect may be a huge event in the near future. http://interestalert.com/brand/siteia.shtml?Story=st/sn/05070000aaa02761.upi&Sys=siteia&Fid=WORLDNEW&Type=News&Filter=World%20News

[Dutch]

It's not too hard to see just how convenient it is to have a big US influence right between Syria/Lebanon and Iran.

Approve of the war or not, this is extremely helpful in the greater fight against Islamic fundamentalist terror groups.

[BishopMVP]

Woot! Sanctions coming against Syria - hxxp://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20040510-113324-3006r.htm

[The Afoci]

Approve of the war or not, this is extremely helpful in the greater fight against Islamic fundamentalist terror groups.

No matter who is President for the next four years, they will be utterly greatful for the presence we will have in the region.

[Sharpieman]

Syrian sanctions aren't going to help much at all. Its a horrible idea. Work with Syria rather than against them. Moreover, Bashar al-Assad, the new President of Syria is very impressionable and open to new ideas at this early stage of his Presidency. We should try to work with him since he's more liberal than his father was.

[Cecil Fielder]

so it looks like Dick Cheney's plan for the US to take over the middle east is proceeding as scheduled.

[Dutch]

You're absolutely right, Cecil, but we have taken nothing from the Middle East but have given much, just as planned. And I'd say "Dick Cheney's Plan" is ahead of schedule. ;)

[Schmidty]

so it looks like Dick Cheney's plan for the US to take over the middle east is proceeding as scheduled.

Come on, at least post under your real name when you get all political. Be a man!!!!

[Cecil Fielder]

lol, this is my only handle here on FOFC... well, actually I posted as Kevin From Dell a few times a couple years ago, but that was just a quick one-off joke...

not that i've tried to keep it a secret or hide it from anybody, but I post as asamford on the OOTP boards, and am a GM/Owner in the JBL (Chiba) and RWBL (Expos).

i just chose a sports-related moniker for posting here... don't know why...

[BishopMVP]

Syrian sanctions aren't going to help much at all. Its a horrible idea.Apparently they worked fairly well against Libya (encouraging them to take the steps necessary to get rid of them) and Iraq (prevented them from developing WMD's, for the most part.)Work with Syria rather than against them. Moreover, Bashar al-Assad, the new President of Syria is very impressionable and open to new ideas at this early stage of his Presidency. We should try to work with him since he's more liberal than his father was.More liberal than his father is damning with faint praise. I'm guessing in order to go this far and apply sanctions, we have found evidence implicating them either in helping store Saddam's WMD or, more likely, helping the anti-coalition insurgency in Iraq (or possibly the Jordanian plot, where the chemicals originated in Syria.) Since we can't really invade them right now, sanctions are the next best thing we can do.

[Tom E]

It would be good for America if Isreal attacked Iran, it would take some heat off us. Becuase the only thing a militiant Muslim hates more then an American, is a Jew.

[Dutch]

No, you are wrong, there is one thing a militant Muslim hates more than Jews or Americans. A central government in their own country that has the balls to not let terrorism stand unchecked.

The thing they fear most in Iraq is not the US Army, it's the forming of a centralized Iraqi army that doesn't give power to just Sunni Muslims or just Militants or just this little group of thugs or that group of thugs...this government will give the power to Iraqi's, and as you can see, they can't stand the thought of that.

[Schmidty]

not that i've tried to keep it a secret or hide it from anybody, but I post as asamford on the OOTP boards, and am a GM/Owner in the JBL (Chiba) and RWBL (Expos).

You didn't have to do that, buddy. I was just giving you shit.


i just chose a sports-related moniker for posting here... don't know why...

Because Big Cec' is the fucking man.

[Sharpieman]

Apparently they worked fairly well against Libya (encouraging them to take the steps necessary to get rid of them) and Iraq (prevented them from developing WMD's, for the most part.)More liberal than his father is damning with faint praise. I'm guessing in order to go this far and apply sanctions, we have found evidence implicating them either in
helping store Saddam's WMD or, more likely, helping the anti-coalition insurgency in Iraq (or possibly the Jordanian plot, where the chemicals originated in Syria.) Since we can't really invade them right now, sanctions are the next best thing we can do.
Actually its debatable if the sanctions actually worked with Libya. Libya still harbors terrorists and supports Islamic fundamentalism. Also, I think our presence in Iraq, right next to Libya has influenced Libya's decision making quite a bit. Let me clarify something, Bashar al-Assad is much more liberal than his father, when he came into office he immediately released about 1,000 political prisoners. He also has been involved with many modernization projects in Syria, most notably his computer modernization project. Also your "guessing" is just that, guessing. We probably did not find that Syria was helping Saddam hide his WMD because Syria and Iraq have been rivals ever since Syria aided the U.S. and others during the Gulf war. The reason why we have sanctioned Syria is because they continue to support Hezbollah. However, by no means is Syria an Islamic state. The leaders of Syria actually see Islamic fundamentalism as a threat to their power. They support Hezbollah for 2 reasons. First, Syria has been a fierce rival of Israel for a pretty long time and supports Palestinian statehood. Second, Hezbollah is used as kind of a militia to do the Presidents bidding. In the past, Hezbollah has been used as insurgents into Lebanon. However, I do agree with you that it’s very possible that Hezbollah and other terrorist groups have crossed over from Syria and attacked coalition forces. Syria still does have at least a portion of its population that is sympathetic to terrorists.

[Leonidas]

What worked against Libya was taking down Saddam. Plain and simple. Quadaffi didn't want to wind up in some shack out in the countryside. As for Bashar, you can say all you want about how "liberal" he is, but the bottom line is the Ba'ath party runs Syria and were probably very grateful someone as young and weak as Bashar was allowed to follow the old man so they could really run things. Don't think for a second Bashar is really in control of that situation.

[Sharpieman]

Of course Bashar isn't in control of the situation, he still has the power to enact different reforms as long as they aren't in conflict with the Ba'ath parties interests. And within those boundries there is room for reform and liberal ideas. If someone actually thinks that sanctions on Syria are going to make it a less of a threat to world security, they are very mistaken. And it would be incredibly stupid to attack Syria. While we fight Middle Eastern terrorists we have to remember there are other threats out in the world. Since the war in Iraq started, North Korea has created 7 or so nukes.

[Dutch]

Since the war in Iraq started, North Korea has created 7 or so nukes.

I'm guessing, if Monday Morning QB'ing did any good, let's assume you mean that we should have attacked North Korea instead of Iraq? Should we have sneak attacked them? I don't understand what this implies.