Fantasy Football: Opinions Needed

[Travis]

Alrighty, to set the stage, I've been competing in an online keeper league for the past 5 years. The guy running it had 2 leagues going, a 12 team league and an 8 team league. I was in the 8 team league, and also took over a team in the 12 team league last year 3 games into the season (finished tied for 2nd last, wasn't pretty).

Due to a lack of returning owners, he's merging the two leagues while trying not to do a redraft. The result, each owner keeps one team (I had to keep the team I took over in the 12 team league to try and reduce the number of duplicate keepers), and gets to have 2 keepers this year (instead of 4 plus another acquired via off season acquisition).

Now, I'm picking anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the first round (snake draft) and am planning on keeping Tom Brady and Domanick Davis (traded Chad Pennington for a 3rd round pick). I've got an offer on the table of Mike Vick and Marshall Faulk for my first round pick.

So, long winded explanation short, do I keep Brady and DD and that high 1st round pick (most likely a RB pick), or keep Vick and Faulk and not have a pick until possibly the 23rd slot of the draft with 46 players off the board?

I'm leaning towards standing pat and hoping for DD to keep his torrid pace up, and I think he'll be a perennial keeper for me and really think by the time I draft in the 2nd round that all top tier RB's will be gone. That said, anybody hear anything about DD, Faulk or Vick that would sway things?

[cthomer5000]

I wouldn't say Dominick Davis is a perennial keeper just yet. The Texans spent a 2nd round pick on Tony Hollings in the supplemental draft last year, and I expect he'll see a decent number of carries this season.

that being said i still don't have any advice for you.

[Travis]

Heh, by perennial keeper, I mostly meant for the league that I'm in. I'm probably going to be trying to stay fairly safe with the 1st round pick (if I go that route), then look for younger/higher upside players the rest of the way through, so as long as Davis doesn't completely fall off his pace from last year, he'll probably be one of the top players on my team (unless I get really, really lucky) when we decide our 4 keepers at the end of the year.

[cthomer5000]

Even in that context, it's not entirely out of the question that Davis might not be the Texans starter by the end of the year. It's unlikely, but entirely possible.

Still, I think you're probably better off standing pat and getting a nice draft pick.

[Travis]

shhhhhhhhh, no hexing DD. If he's out, it's your fault now, same for the ruination of my ffb team if said event happens.