Samdari
04-13-2004, 01:31 PM
I know, there are tons of mock drafts out there. This one is right. Guaranteed. Or your money back.
Normally I am not one to predict too many trades, but the rumors have seduced me this year. Some of them make too much sense to ignore. The trades I am predicting involving draft picks are:
Giants swap picks with San Diego. San Diego takes less than value to avoid the pressure and cost of taking a QB #1 overall. Current wisdom has the bolts asking too much, but as the draft comes closer, their paralyzing fear of standing up and saying, "here is our guy" will have them begging people to take the pick.
The other prediction I cannot help but make is the Raiders and Browns swapping first rounders. The player each supposedly wants makes more sense in the others slot, so they swap.
1 NY Giants (from SD) Eli Manning, QB, Mississippi.
2 Cleveland, Robert Gallery, OT, Iowa. Too hot to drop below this spot. Not likely to be Oakland, but Gallery is too valuable to let him simply drop.
3 Arizona, Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Pittsburgh. Unbelievably, they get the best player at #3.
4 San Diego, Ben Roethlesberger, QB, Miami (OH). The swap may not happen. Either way, I think it will the players at 1-4 will be this order. Unless the Giants trade up to 2, making this Roy Williams.
5 Washington, Sean Taylor, S, Miami. I don’t think it will be the Skins, but I think he’ll go here.
6 Detroit, Steven Jackson, RB, Oregon St. This has become a one RB draft. That will raise his stock beyond where his talent alone merits. Teams are already manuevering to get him (Denver). Probably not Detroit, but someone takes Jackson here.
7 Oakland, Roy Williams, WR, Texas. They traded down just to take him here.
8 Atlanta, Kenichi Udeze, DL, USC. They thought they’d get Roy, but they get the best player on the board, at a position of need to boot.
9 Jacksonville, Kellen Winslow, Jr., TE, Miami. Most mocks have them taking Roy or Udeze, but they’ll happily take the guy who drops here. Also could be where teams start looking to trade up for Rivers.
10 Houston, DeAngelo Hall, CB, Virginia Tech. Another candidate for someone trying to trade ahead of Pittsburgh to get Rivers.
11 Pittsburgh, Phillip Rivers, QB NC State. There are those who quietly think Rivers will be the best QB in this class. If Rivers is on the board, and Jackson gone, this is a slam dunk.
12 NY Jets, Mike Williams, WR, USC. They have other needs, but Mike Williams is too good to pass up. They need a big physical WR. They need CB and LB, but none are worthy of this spot. Will someone trade up for Williams?
13 Bills, Will Smith, DE, Ohio St. The Bills now hate their options, they wanted Rivers or Mike Williams. Much like Atlanta, the player they were forced to take ends up being better than the players they wanted.
14 Chicago, Tommie Harris, DT, Oklahoma. A month ago, they thought they’d have to trade into the top 5 for him. Unbelievable steal.
15 Tampa Bay, Reggie Williams, WR Washington. They found out last year they have no true #1 WR. Tough for them to pass on Wilfork though.
16 San Francisco, Vince Wilfork, DT, Miami. They need WR as well, but the top 4 have pushed Wilfork this low, and they have a better chance of getting a good WR in round 2 than a DT. Dallas could try to trade here for Jones. The Patriots WILL trade here if Jackson slips this far.
17 Denver, Kevin Jones, RB, Virginia Tech. They moved here to get ahead of NE and Dallas for Jackson. Finding him long gone, they have to take Jones.
While waiting for this pick, Tags announces that Corey Dillon has been traded to the Cowboys for their third round pick.
18 New Orleans, Dunta Robinson, CB, South Carolina. It will be a CB. If Robinson goes before this (due to the Jets taking a CB) it will be Gamble.
19 Minnesota. DJ Williams, LB, Miami. They need DE more, but any here would be somewhat of a reach. For reasons I do not understand, the NFL likes this guy more than Vilma.
20 Miami. Shawn Andrews, OT, Arkansas. Under the misguided impression that they solved either their QB or WR problems, the go for another need, OL. They strike out here too, getting a good player, but essentially a second round talent in the first round.
21. New England. Chris Gamble, CB, Ohio State. A tough call here, as I think it somewhat unlikely that the Pats are using their two late picks. They need to have a “no Ty Law” plan, and Gamble is a start. If its Tampa (which I think is likely) it will be a WR - Evans, Clayton or Woods.
22. Cowboys. Randy Starks, DT, Maryland. They’d love for Jones to be here. They are desperate for a RB, but Perry is just not that much better than who will be available in the second, so not worth this pick, plus they picked up Dillon. DL is a need area, and Starks is not far behind the top two. Could also take Gamble if he slips this far.
23. Seahawks. Jon Vilma, LB, Miami. They want Starks, and could work a deal with Miami to go get him. They may not need to, but if both RBs do go ahead of Miami, they’ll get nervous.
24. Bengals. Antwan Odom, DE, Alabama. They’ll look at TE Ben Troupe here, but in the end, they need defense more.
25. Green Bay. Will Poole, CB, USC. Many have Matt Ware here, due to his athleticism and flexibility. They need someone who can cover people while Favre is still playing, and Poole is better equipped to do that. Could also surprise with Losman.
26. Rams. Jason Babin DE, Western Michigan. Martz will want Troupe, but they have to line somebody up on the defensive line. Babin could end up being the best DE in this class.
27. Titans. Darnell Dockett, DT, FSU. They hoped Babin would fall, and know that Troupe is the best player on the board, but this has to be a DL. They need both tackle and end, so take the best available at either position.
28. Eagles. Matt Ware, CB, UCLA. Need to replace two starters, and the replacements they drafted two years ago did not look able to handle the job last year. Ware rises above other available CBs due to size.
29 Colts. Donnell Washington, DT, Clemson. They are surprised as anyone at the late run on DL. They wanted Dockett (and can get him if the Titans go for Donnell). Could go for S Sean Jones, but there will obviously be no impact DT left in round 2. Could also go for LBs Dansby or Daryl Smith (its time to give up on Morris).
30. Chiefs. Karlos Dansby, LB, Auburn. Like everyone else, they need DL. DT would be ideal, but taking one here would be a reach. This pick could be Marquise Hill of LSU, who would shore up their run D. In the end, they cannot pass on Dansby’s athleticism.
31. Carolina Panthers. Ben Troupe, TE, Florida. They are stunned he is available. Many have a WR here, but with WRs slipping, and the incredible physical ability of Troupe, they decide he can be as much a weapon as a #2 WR.
32. New England. Ben Watson, TE Georgia. I think this will actually be either Detroit or Tampa. Either way, its Watson, as they are both looking for a stretch the field TE, and Watson has freakish size/speed.
Normally I am not one to predict too many trades, but the rumors have seduced me this year. Some of them make too much sense to ignore. The trades I am predicting involving draft picks are:
Giants swap picks with San Diego. San Diego takes less than value to avoid the pressure and cost of taking a QB #1 overall. Current wisdom has the bolts asking too much, but as the draft comes closer, their paralyzing fear of standing up and saying, "here is our guy" will have them begging people to take the pick.
The other prediction I cannot help but make is the Raiders and Browns swapping first rounders. The player each supposedly wants makes more sense in the others slot, so they swap.
1 NY Giants (from SD) Eli Manning, QB, Mississippi.
2 Cleveland, Robert Gallery, OT, Iowa. Too hot to drop below this spot. Not likely to be Oakland, but Gallery is too valuable to let him simply drop.
3 Arizona, Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Pittsburgh. Unbelievably, they get the best player at #3.
4 San Diego, Ben Roethlesberger, QB, Miami (OH). The swap may not happen. Either way, I think it will the players at 1-4 will be this order. Unless the Giants trade up to 2, making this Roy Williams.
5 Washington, Sean Taylor, S, Miami. I don’t think it will be the Skins, but I think he’ll go here.
6 Detroit, Steven Jackson, RB, Oregon St. This has become a one RB draft. That will raise his stock beyond where his talent alone merits. Teams are already manuevering to get him (Denver). Probably not Detroit, but someone takes Jackson here.
7 Oakland, Roy Williams, WR, Texas. They traded down just to take him here.
8 Atlanta, Kenichi Udeze, DL, USC. They thought they’d get Roy, but they get the best player on the board, at a position of need to boot.
9 Jacksonville, Kellen Winslow, Jr., TE, Miami. Most mocks have them taking Roy or Udeze, but they’ll happily take the guy who drops here. Also could be where teams start looking to trade up for Rivers.
10 Houston, DeAngelo Hall, CB, Virginia Tech. Another candidate for someone trying to trade ahead of Pittsburgh to get Rivers.
11 Pittsburgh, Phillip Rivers, QB NC State. There are those who quietly think Rivers will be the best QB in this class. If Rivers is on the board, and Jackson gone, this is a slam dunk.
12 NY Jets, Mike Williams, WR, USC. They have other needs, but Mike Williams is too good to pass up. They need a big physical WR. They need CB and LB, but none are worthy of this spot. Will someone trade up for Williams?
13 Bills, Will Smith, DE, Ohio St. The Bills now hate their options, they wanted Rivers or Mike Williams. Much like Atlanta, the player they were forced to take ends up being better than the players they wanted.
14 Chicago, Tommie Harris, DT, Oklahoma. A month ago, they thought they’d have to trade into the top 5 for him. Unbelievable steal.
15 Tampa Bay, Reggie Williams, WR Washington. They found out last year they have no true #1 WR. Tough for them to pass on Wilfork though.
16 San Francisco, Vince Wilfork, DT, Miami. They need WR as well, but the top 4 have pushed Wilfork this low, and they have a better chance of getting a good WR in round 2 than a DT. Dallas could try to trade here for Jones. The Patriots WILL trade here if Jackson slips this far.
17 Denver, Kevin Jones, RB, Virginia Tech. They moved here to get ahead of NE and Dallas for Jackson. Finding him long gone, they have to take Jones.
While waiting for this pick, Tags announces that Corey Dillon has been traded to the Cowboys for their third round pick.
18 New Orleans, Dunta Robinson, CB, South Carolina. It will be a CB. If Robinson goes before this (due to the Jets taking a CB) it will be Gamble.
19 Minnesota. DJ Williams, LB, Miami. They need DE more, but any here would be somewhat of a reach. For reasons I do not understand, the NFL likes this guy more than Vilma.
20 Miami. Shawn Andrews, OT, Arkansas. Under the misguided impression that they solved either their QB or WR problems, the go for another need, OL. They strike out here too, getting a good player, but essentially a second round talent in the first round.
21. New England. Chris Gamble, CB, Ohio State. A tough call here, as I think it somewhat unlikely that the Pats are using their two late picks. They need to have a “no Ty Law” plan, and Gamble is a start. If its Tampa (which I think is likely) it will be a WR - Evans, Clayton or Woods.
22. Cowboys. Randy Starks, DT, Maryland. They’d love for Jones to be here. They are desperate for a RB, but Perry is just not that much better than who will be available in the second, so not worth this pick, plus they picked up Dillon. DL is a need area, and Starks is not far behind the top two. Could also take Gamble if he slips this far.
23. Seahawks. Jon Vilma, LB, Miami. They want Starks, and could work a deal with Miami to go get him. They may not need to, but if both RBs do go ahead of Miami, they’ll get nervous.
24. Bengals. Antwan Odom, DE, Alabama. They’ll look at TE Ben Troupe here, but in the end, they need defense more.
25. Green Bay. Will Poole, CB, USC. Many have Matt Ware here, due to his athleticism and flexibility. They need someone who can cover people while Favre is still playing, and Poole is better equipped to do that. Could also surprise with Losman.
26. Rams. Jason Babin DE, Western Michigan. Martz will want Troupe, but they have to line somebody up on the defensive line. Babin could end up being the best DE in this class.
27. Titans. Darnell Dockett, DT, FSU. They hoped Babin would fall, and know that Troupe is the best player on the board, but this has to be a DL. They need both tackle and end, so take the best available at either position.
28. Eagles. Matt Ware, CB, UCLA. Need to replace two starters, and the replacements they drafted two years ago did not look able to handle the job last year. Ware rises above other available CBs due to size.
29 Colts. Donnell Washington, DT, Clemson. They are surprised as anyone at the late run on DL. They wanted Dockett (and can get him if the Titans go for Donnell). Could go for S Sean Jones, but there will obviously be no impact DT left in round 2. Could also go for LBs Dansby or Daryl Smith (its time to give up on Morris).
30. Chiefs. Karlos Dansby, LB, Auburn. Like everyone else, they need DL. DT would be ideal, but taking one here would be a reach. This pick could be Marquise Hill of LSU, who would shore up their run D. In the end, they cannot pass on Dansby’s athleticism.
31. Carolina Panthers. Ben Troupe, TE, Florida. They are stunned he is available. Many have a WR here, but with WRs slipping, and the incredible physical ability of Troupe, they decide he can be as much a weapon as a #2 WR.
32. New England. Ben Watson, TE Georgia. I think this will actually be either Detroit or Tampa. Either way, its Watson, as they are both looking for a stretch the field TE, and Watson has freakish size/speed.