OT--Belmont

[digamma]

I was remembering this post from last year's Preakness thread:

http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/forums/showpost.php?p=133418&postcount=47

I'm wondering if all of the hype around SMARTY JONES, who is at 2-5 right now, has the possibility of creating a minus pool and a sure thing bet. I wonder if fewer people will bet SJ to show or across the board because the fashionable thing to do will be to buy a SJ "win" ticket. As an aside, Hollywood Park is giving away $2 SJ win tickets to the first 10,000 who enter the gates Saturday.

[Senator]

My wife bet on him from the Kentuck Derby. I think the odds were around 6-1 on brisbet.com. Anyway she won over 100 dollars on that win ticket.

Last week, the same bet netted her almost .20 cents on the dollar bet.

This week, other than to to say she had him from day one and has all three win tickets, there is no money to be made.

Oh yea, while I had spent countless hours looking over the forms before the Kentucky Derby, she casually picked the horse because, "I like it's name."

I don't know how many women I have seen do this with success.

/throws racing form in the trash

[QuikSand]

I do think that SMARTY JONES will go off as a 1-9 favorite, but I don't know about the possibility of a minus pool. There will, undoubtedly, be a ton of souvenir tickets bought this year -- but we'd need an awful lot of them to add up to 95% of the betting pool. And I don't have any forecast on who might be betting on him to place or show (where the chances of a minus pool are even greater, sometimes).

I'm guessing that we won't see the "sure thing" creep up this time.

[RPI-Fan]

Minus pool?

[QuikSand]

Actually, there does exist the possibility for a "locked in" profit at the racetrack. The circumstances are pretty rare, but there are opportunitites for a sure thing, assuming that you do indeed know the final distribution of the pools involved.

It comes up when a single horse gets bet mercilessly, typically in the show pool. When that happens, the track carries what it calls a "minus pool" - meaning that its guaranteed payout of $2.10 on every $2.00 bet (used to be $2.20, but this sort of thing has changed that in most places) actually results in them giving back more money than was wagered. Mathematically, this means that a single horse must represnt well over 95% of the betting pool - and that doesn't happen all that often.

When it does, though, there is a chance to make a "can't miss" bet. It involves a large bet on the favorite, large enough to cover the smaller bets on the other contenders. If the favorite pays, you gain a small profit. If it fails, you cash tickets on the other winners, which typically pay huge sums - and mathematically will cover your original stake as well. Again, if you know that the final pools are heading this way, there is a hypothetical possibility to "bet the ranch" and be certain that you'll come out ahead.

I have bet against heavy favorites in the show pool a couple of times in the past... and have seen some remarkable payouts (in other races). A few years ago, in the Black-Eyed Susan (the big fillies race the day before the Preakness) the payouts on the winner were somethign like $18.00, $12.20, $142.00 - all because a super favorite in the show pool failed to hit the board. The three show payoffs were all far higher than the win or place payoffs, and all at or near triple digits.

.

[QuikSand]

How to make guaranteed money at the racetrack

Assume you have a six-horse field in a race, with a super-heavy favorite.
Assume the betting pool is big enough that whatever you bet won’t alter the pool.

Assume the money in the show pool is as follows:
#1: 99.5%
#2 - #6: 0.1% each

Now, you put down a bet that looks like this:
$100,000 on #1 to show
$500 each on #2-5 to show

There are two meaningfully different outcomes that are possible here:


Outcome #1: The favorite is in the top three

Payouts: The heavy show pool will result in a $2.10 payout for all winners. So, your big ticket pays $105,000, and you’ll have two more winners for $525 each. You have three losing tickets, but those losses are more than made up for by the big winner.

OUT: $105,000
IN: $106,050
ROI: 1% return on investment

Outcome #2: The favorite is out of the top three

Payouts: With the big money in the show pool on the favorite and out of the money, the payouts will be lofty for everyone else.

Assuming a 15% takeout (about average), that means there is $850 remaining in the win pool for every $1000 in total show wagering – which will then be divided three ways (with three horses winning the bet), meaning each $1 bet to show should yield about $283. So, each of your three winning $500 bets pays $141,500.

OUT: $105,000
IN: $424,500
ROI: nice

[Honolulu Blue]

I'll start on the subject of the minus pool, since that's the more interesting one.

QS is right in that in order for a minus pool to represent a true no-risk betting opportunity, one horse has to make up more than 95% of the betting. That's not likely to happen.

However, the minus pool will happen at a lower percentage than that - around 80 to 85%, depending on how much the track and the state take as their shares. At that level, there's no no-risk opportunity for the bettor, but the track will lose money if the heavy favorite does the expected. For that reason, it's not totally out of the realm of possibility that Belmont will disallow show betting on the Belmont Stakes.

As for the race itself, there doesn't seem to be much betting opportunity. SMARTY JONES is the best horse, by far, but I'm less than convinced that he can get the distance quickly enough. But which of the others can? I shrug my shoulders.

[korme]

/throws racing form in the trash
haha, that's great

[korme]

and QS, that is genius stuff

[QuikSand]

As for the race itself, there doesn't seem to be much betting opportunity. SMARTY JONES is the best horse, by far, but I'm less than convinced that he can get the distance quickly enough. But which of the others can? I shrug my shoulders.

I'm pretty much with you.

I am generally a value bettor, and in a race like this, there is bound to be real value in the win pool. If Smarty goes off at 1-9 (like I'd expect) then I think you're looking at 10-1 and up on every other horse in the field.

I guess you look at breeding, and try to see if there's someone out there who might actualy appreciate the extra distance, in teh event that Smarty doesn't. Who might that be?

I'm going to skip the improving PURGE and the money finishers from the Preakness -- we basically know about them, I guess they are "logicals" but they have all been soundly beaten by Smarty already. Might one turn the tables, sure. Is that worth mentioning... well, I guess I just did. PURGE, EDDINGTON, and ROCK HARD TEN are what we might call "logicals" here. Yawn.

MASTER DAVID has some stout turf breding on the dam side, and theoretically ought to hande an off track if that happens. If you throw out his Derby (like most everyone's) then you have a horse who, with one big step forward, might contend for a spot here.

BIRDSTONE intrigues me here, and I'm thinking that he will end up at something like 50 or 60-1 on the tote board. What's to like? The Unbridled blood line is a good mark, he's got class from the other side, too. Plus, I just like Edgar Prado in a tactical race - and he should be placed in a good spot to pick up the pieces if Smarty falters badly.

And that's my list. Do I think it's likely that one of these bombers will get there? Nope. Will I get lured into plunking down a few bucks if the odds board gets out of hand? Yup.


Actual prediction: Preakness replay, kind of.

SMARTY JONES gets the lead fairly early, maybe gets a bit of challenge from PURGE, and settles in for a comfortable pace through 3/4 of a mile. On the turn, or at the top of the stretch, I think PURGE falls off, and we see a little bit of run from BIRDSTONE. But into the stretch, the field is fading, SMARTY JONES stays ahead (but is probably not pulling away) and gets there first. I'll reverse the order of the Preakness trifecta finishers, and call the superfecta this way:

11 SMARTY JONES
8 EDDINGTON
5 ROCK HARD TEN
4 BIRDSTONE

The 11-8 exacta pays a robust $13.00, a $1 tri brings you a measly $74.00, and the $1 superfecta lands for $430.


Had to write something...

[B & B]

Looking for input on a h2h matchup of Birdstone vs. Royal Assault. Thoughts?

[Senator]

Birdstone gets the nod in my jaded opinion.

Q -

Great read on how to make guaranteed money at the track. I printed it out for future use. I can see where this would come into play in exactly this type of situation.

I never realized the value of a show tickets potential before I read this.

[Senator]

Dola,

I just pulled 105K from the bank account to test this theory. :)

By the way, does this take into account the tax you pay when you cash the tickets?

[sooner333]

By the way, does this take into account the tax you pay when you cash the tickets?

I doubt it, but you would only pay taxes on your winnings, not the amount of cash you receieved, so you would still win money.

[Senator]

Purge scares me. He is the ? to me.

[GrantDawg]

Dola,

I just pulled 105K from the bank account to test this theory. :)

By the way, does this take into account the tax you pay when you cash the tickets?
If you do and don't post how it ends up, I'm going to hunt you down.

[Senator]

If by 105,000 you mean 105 dollars, then this is how I am going to do it.

[lynchjm24]

For a mere $54 you too can make this wager. :)

$2 Tri Keys:
1/4,5,9/4,5,9
4/2,5,9/2,5,9
5/2,8,9/2,8,9
9/1,5,8/1,4,5,8

1 - MASTER DAVID
2 - PURGE
3 - CAIMAN
4 - BIRDSTONE
5 - ROCK HARD TEN
6 - ROYAL ASSAULT
7 - TAP DANCER
8 - EDDINGTON
9 - SMARTY JONES

Race 6 Vagrancy Handicap
Tri Box
BEAR FAN
KITTY KNIGHT
BEAUTY HALO

Exacta Box
SMOK'N FROLIC
BEAR FAN
BEAUTY HALO

Race 7 True North Breeders Cup Handicap
Exacta Key
KEY DEPUTY w SPEIGHTSTOWN and CAT GENIUS
Exacta Box
SPEIGHTSTOWN w CAT GENIUS

Race 8 Just a Game Breeders Cup H.
Exacta Box
INTERCONTINENTAL/CONEY KITTY/DEDICATION/RISKADVERSE

Race 9 Riva Ridge
Straight Trifectas
TETON FOREST
FOREST DANGER
ABBONDANZA

Race 10 Manhattan Handicap
Exacta Box
Epicentre
STROLL
REQUEST FOR PAROLE

$20 Win
MILLENNIUM DRAGON

[lynchjm24]

Race 6
Exacta Box
SMOK'N FROLIC
BEAR FAN
BEAUTY HALO



$13.80 - thanks for nothing. A dominating win.....

[lynchjm24]

Race 7 True North Breeders Cup Handicap

Exacta Box
SPEIGHTSTOWN w CAT GENIUS



You guys want winners....
$34.00 exactas don't grow on trees. :)

[Senator]

Race 8 Just a Game Breeders Cup H.
Exacta Box
INTERCONTINENTAL/CONEY KITTY/DEDICATION/RISKADVERSE


Damn. I needed that 12 bucks.

[lynchjm24]

Damn. I needed that 12 bucks.

That was a horrid wager. 3 out of the last 4 have been obvious winners. Hopefully that ends by race 11.

[lynchjm24]

Race 10 Manhattan Handicap


$20 Win
MILLENNIUM DRAGON

Went off at 12-1 and lost by a nose :(.

[Eaglesfan27]

Just about post time!

[Tekneek]

Ummm... I've never watched the Belmont before, but what is up with that singer?

[Maple Leafs]

Man, that guy got the words to the national anthem all wrong...

[Eaglesfan27]

Smarty Jones did it!!! :)

No, he didn't.. lost it in the last few seconds :(

[Vince]

Man, that was amazing.

[Rich1033]

Wow

[lynchjm24]

$2 Tri Keys:

4/2,5,9/2,5,9


1 - MASTER DAVID
2 - PURGE
3 - CAIMAN
4 - BIRDSTONE
5 - ROCK HARD TEN
6 - ROYAL ASSAULT
7 - TAP DANCER
8 - EDDINGTON
9 - SMARTY JONES




What the hell happened to ROCK HARD TEN?

[lynchjm24]

Ummm... I've never watched the Belmont before, but what is up with that singer?

Ronan Tynan: same guy who sings God Bless America at Yankee playoff games.

[B & B]

Looking for input on a h2h matchup of Birdstone vs. Royal Assault. Thoughts?

Anyone thinking that was gonna be the trifecta with a Smarty sandwich?

Closer than Id have thought, but a smarter man would have bet him straight.

[Racer]

I'm pretty much with you.

I am generally a value bettor, and in a race like this, there is bound to be real value in the win pool. If Smarty goes off at 1-9 (like I'd expect) then I think you're looking at 10-1 and up on every other horse in the field.

I guess you look at breeding, and try to see if there's someone out there who might actualy appreciate the extra distance, in teh event that Smarty doesn't. Who might that be?

I'm going to skip the improving PURGE and the money finishers from the Preakness -- we basically know about them, I guess they are "logicals" but they have all been soundly beaten by Smarty already. Might one turn the tables, sure. Is that worth mentioning... well, I guess I just did. PURGE, EDDINGTON, and ROCK HARD TEN are what we might call "logicals" here. Yawn.

MASTER DAVID has some stout turf breding on the dam side, and theoretically ought to hande an off track if that happens. If you throw out his Derby (like most everyone's) then you have a horse who, with one big step forward, might contend for a spot here.

BIRDSTONE intrigues me here, and I'm thinking that he will end up at something like 50 or 60-1 on the tote board. What's to like? The Unbridled blood line is a good mark, he's got class from the other side, too. Plus, I just like Edgar Prado in a tactical race - and he should be placed in a good spot to pick up the pieces if Smarty falters badly.

And that's my list. Do I think it's likely that one of these bombers will get there? Nope. Will I get lured into plunking down a few bucks if the odds board gets out of hand? Yup.


Actual prediction: Preakness replay, kind of.

SMARTY JONES gets the lead fairly early, maybe gets a bit of challenge from PURGE, and settles in for a comfortable pace through 3/4 of a mile. On the turn, or at the top of the stretch, I think PURGE falls off, and we see a little bit of run from BIRDSTONE. But into the stretch, the field is fading, SMARTY JONES stays ahead (but is probably not pulling away) and gets there first. I'll reverse the order of the Preakness trifecta finishers, and call the superfecta this way:

11 SMARTY JONES
8 EDDINGTON
5 ROCK HARD TEN
4 BIRDSTONE

The 11-8 exacta pays a robust $13.00, a $1 tri brings you a measly $74.00, and the $1 superfecta lands for $430.


Had to write something...


After reading this earlier, I got the feeling Birdstone was going to win the race. I really wish I would have placed a bet. :(

[Honolulu Blue]

Thoughts:

1) Congratulations to the BIRDSTONE team, and sympathies to the SJ team and its many fans.
2) SJ paid off more to place and show than he would have to win. He was way underbet in both pools; I know because I was watching them closely. I thought about placing a bet on one or the other, but decided not to. Oh well.
3) The one bet I did make on the Belmont was at BetBet with the cyberbucks they gave me from a previous promotion. I bet on "Smarty - No" at +300 (3-1 against). Now I have enough money in my account to get a check. Or maybe I should parlay it into a futures bet on the Lions winning the Front Office Bowl. Only 75-1; whaddaya think?

[Eaglesfan27]

Thoughts:

1) Congratulations to the BIRDSTONE team, and sympathies to the SJ team and its many fans.
2) SJ paid off more to place and show than he would have to win. He was way underbet in both pools; I know because I was watching them closely. I thought about placing a bet on one or the other, but decided not to. Oh well.
3) The one bet I did make on the Belmont was at BetBet with the cyberbucks they gave me from a previous promotion. I bet on "Smarty - No" at +300 (3-1 against). Now I have enough money in my account to get a check. Or maybe I should parlay it into a futures bet on the Lions winning the Front Office Bowl. Only 75-1; whaddaya think?

There are bets on a video game? ;)

[QuikSand]

I'm pretty much with you.

I am generally a value bettor, and in a race like this, there is bound to be real value in the win pool. If Smarty goes off at 1-9 (like I'd expect) then I think you're looking at 10-1 and up on every other horse in the field.

I guess you look at breeding, and try to see if there's someone out there who might actualy appreciate the extra distance, in teh event that Smarty doesn't. Who might that be?

I'm going to skip the improving PURGE and the money finishers from the Preakness -- we basically know about them, I guess they are "logicals" but they have all been soundly beaten by Smarty already. Might one turn the tables, sure. Is that worth mentioning... well, I guess I just did. PURGE, EDDINGTON, and ROCK HARD TEN are what we might call "logicals" here. Yawn.

MASTER DAVID has some stout turf breding on the dam side, and theoretically ought to hande an off track if that happens. If you throw out his Derby (like most everyone's) then you have a horse who, with one big step forward, might contend for a spot here.

BIRDSTONE intrigues me here, and I'm thinking that he will end up at something like 50 or 60-1 on the tote board. What's to like? The Unbridled blood line is a good mark, he's got class from the other side, too. Plus, I just like Edgar Prado in a tactical race - and he should be placed in a good spot to pick up the pieces if Smarty falters badly.

So, this is a fair paraphrasing of my ultimate conclusions about the race, even up until race time.

On the bus I take to Belmont each year, I'm honored to give a little "handicapping" rundown over the microphone (usually about the time we're passing by Manhattan) and talk about what I like in the day's races. Yesterday I talked about Smarty's running style (a plus) and his pedigree (a minus) but concluded he had an excellent chance to win it.

I then went on to mention MASTER DAVID briefly, and BIRDSTONE extensively, more or less as above.


The race was literally breathtaking -- the crowd was far more enthusiastically rooting for this horse than any of his recent predecessors). Smarty held off challenges into and through the turn, and got to our section still with a two length lead. But in the furlong right in front os us, we saw it all slip away -- Smarty clunked home (no other way to put it) and Birdstone finished strongly enough to pull past him. It was like someone cam through and sucked all the air out of the stands-- the screaming and cheering just evaporated into awestruck silence and gasping.


I lost count of the people who came up to me to thank me for giving them BIRDSTONE -- probably half of our bus used him either in straight bets (I told them an across-the board bet might be worthwhile) or in an exacta with Smarty. At least this year, nobody went to the IRS windown on my advice (like two years ago when Sarava won it at 70-1).

I, on the other hand, following a long day of near misses (making decent picks that either came in too chalky or just missed the payoff spots) ended up abandoning my "longshot" bets in the big race, and only using BIRDSTONE in my single trifecta bet, which had SMARYT JONES singled on top to save money. Heh. I got creamed, but the people who listened to me had their best day ever. Nice.


Unbelieveable experience, though - the race itself was the most exciting I've ever watched.

[Bill Abner]

Unbelieveable experience, though - the race itself was the most exciting I've ever watched.

Yeah it was wild. I had Birdstone to finish 2nd on a $5 Superfecta. Argh. I thought he had a chance. I threw his Derby race and his prep race out. He had valid excuses. Still, I thought Smarty would win.

Most exciting ever? Hmm. I have to default to the Easy Goer/Sunday Silence Preakness in 1989. Best race I ever saw in my life.

[QuikSand]

Most exciting ever? Hmm. I have to default to the Easy Goer/Sunday Silence Preakness in 1989. Best race I ever saw in my life.

I have no doubt.

[digamma]

S
I lost count of the people who came up to me to thank me for giving them BIRDSTONE -- probably half of our bus used him either in straight bets (I told them an across-the board bet might be worthwhile) or in an exacta with Smarty. At least this year, nobody went to the IRS windown on my advice (like two years ago when Sarava won it at 70-1).



Add me to the list. We went with some friends to the track today and for some reason I remembered this post when going up to the window for the Belmont. As a result, I added SUMMER BIRD to my ticket for a decent hit. (Of course, I recognize MINE THAT BIRD's pedigree as well.)