Will Lance Armstrong win another Tour de France?

[Airhog]

He doesnt hold the yellow jersey yet, but its still very early in the race. I look for him to make a move before they reach the alps.

[The_herd]

He's 31 seconds ahead of the next closest guy that has a shot of winning. The current leaders are guys that specialize at the sprint events and have no real shot of winning the tour. With Mayo taking a spill today his chances are looking pretty good.

[wheels]

If he does, it must go down as one of the top three sports accomplishments of all time. And right now, I'm hard pressed to name two better. He is an incredible athlete.

[scooter]

I was thinking of starting a Tour de France thread, but being new here, I wasn't sure if it was a topic that would get much discussion. I've been looking forward to this year's edition since last year's race ended.

I think Lance has a very good chance to win. He has a team that is built for his winning only (unlike just about everyone else). I'm interested to see the team time trial tomorrow. With Mayo's fall today, Lance could pretty much put him out of the race tomorrow. But what happened to Mayo today could happen to anyone, including Lance. This is such a long race, and so many bad things can happen, you always have to be aware.

[Ryan S]

I don't know much about cycling, but I would have thought that it would be difficult to win the race in the early days of the event.

[Alf]

With Vinokourov not running this year, I don't see anyone (even Ulrich) capable of beating Lance.

[scooter]

I don't know much about cycling, but I would have thought that it would be difficult to win the race in the early days of the event.

You can't win it, but you can lose it!

[Glengoyne]

With Vinokourov not running this year, I don't see anyone (even Ulrich) capable of beating Lance.
I think that most of the guys with a chance to beat him are now on U.S. Postal. It isn't a foregone conclusion, by any means, but I think he will do it. I still can't decide if I would rather him win it essentially unopposed, or with someone at least close to in the running like last year. In my dream scenario, he is behind on the final day, and pulls a Greg Lemond style time trial victory to seal his legend.

[korme]

Lance to cycling is like Kobayashi to hot dog eating.

[NoMyths]

Lance to cycling is like Kobayashi to hot dog eating.With the important difference that no matter how many hotdogs Kobayashi eats, he will never get to bang Sheryl Crow.

[MIJB#19]

He's not going to win, everybody folloing cycling knows that the option on a 6th victory is haunted.

So far this season, Armstrong has not shown himself at all, unlike in his five winning years. Plus, any Tour rider will have some bad luck anywhere and Armstrong has been very lucky over the years (including his early years in the Tour).

True, Mayo is now over 4 minutes behind, but the winner of the Tour usually wins with such a gap anyway. If Mayo can get himself motivated and focused, I dare to say he can still be a competitor for the Tour victory. That is, if he doesn't lose another 2 minutes today in the team time trial.

Armstrong's gaps with his main rivals:
Leipheimer at 8 seconds
Ullirch at 15 seconds
Hamilton at 16 seconds
Basso at 27 seconds
Heras at 35 seconds
Mayo at 4 min. 7 seconds

And gaps with some outsiders:
Julich at 10 seconds
Igor Gonzalez at 19 seconds
Mancebo at 31 seconds
Totschnig at 39 seconds
Moreau at 3 min. 58 seconds
Zubeldia at 4 min. 13 seconds
Mercado at 15 min. 55 seconds

[Kosta]

I'd say it depends most on what kind of drugs the better teams are taking...

[Alf]

I'd say it depends most on what kind of drugs the better teams are taking...Since most of the teams use the same, that's a moot point :rolleyes:

[MIJB#19]

So far this season, Armstrong has not shown himself at all, unlike in his five winning years. Plus, any Tour rider will have some bad luck anywhere and Armstrong has been very lucky over the years (including his early years in the Tour).Before anyone replies, by this, I mean he's not been involved in hard crashes or something in the past five years.

He did have a teammate who died in the Tour and suffered from cancer to miss two Tours before coming out of nowhere to be a surprising winner in 1999. And, in 1996, he left in an early stage as a potential top10 candidate, but I can't recall what the reason was...

[Hurst2112]

I haven't been too 'up' on day to day events of any of the tours that Lance has won; but, what I do know is that his bread and butter days in the event are the hill climbs.

I don't think he will win this year. It's the "yoko syndrome'. You know, the girlfriend that brings the guy down. So many men have been destroyed by their girlfriends in their prime...John Lennon, Jason Sehorn, Tiger Woods, the former lead singer in my old band...you catch my drift. (I am joking of course, everybody knows Sehorn just sucks).

I would like nothing more to see him win his 6th, but I think that his window has passed.

[cartman]

Before anyone replies, by this, I mean he's not been involved in hard crashes or something in the past five years.

He did have a teammate who died in the Tour and suffered from cancer to miss two Tours before coming out of nowhere to be a surprising winner in 1999. And, in 1996, he left in an early stage as a potential top10 candidate, but I can't recall what the reason was...

I do agree that he was a surprise winner in 1999, due to the fact he should have died from the advanced cancer. But he didn't really come from nowhere, since he was ranked as the #1 rider in the world before getting cancer. He was just an extremely arrogant a-hole, didn't listen to his coaches, and tried to let his physical talent alone allow him to win. I used to be in the same USCF races in the Dallas/Fort Worth area as he was when we were in high school. He was so much better than everyone else, it wasn't funny. We'd have 48 mile criterium races (8 laps, 6 miles per lap) and he would usually be a lap ahead of everyone by the end of the race.

He was greatly humbled by his bout with cancer, and it changed him, for the better. He realized he couldn't do it all by himself. He learned that while he has a ton of ability, he must have help to fully realize it. His arrogance turned to a straight-forward confidence, he listened first to his doctors during treatment, then his coaches and teammates when he returned to racing. He learned that physical talent alone can't win races, he needed his talent combined with the tactics of team racing.

But you are right that he has been extremely lucky in winning the races, avoiding some of the major pitfalls. But I think a large portion of this can be attributed to his teammates doing an incredible job of protecting him. Yesterday was a prime example, when his team was among the first to reach the cobblestones, and missing out on the carnage that soon followed. If you are near the front of the peloton, with a set of good teammates, that allows you to steer clear of a lot of the "bad luck" situations.

[Hurst2112]

But you are right that he has been extremely lucky in winning the races, avoiding some of the major pitfalls.

Sometimes luck can be your best teammate

[MIJB#19]

I do agree that he was a surprise winner in 1999, due to the fact he should have died from the advanced cancer. But he didn't really come from nowhere, since he was ranked as the #1 rider in the world before getting cancer. He was just an extremely arrogant a-hole, didn't listen to his coaches, and tried to let his physical talent alone allow him to win. I used to be in the same USCF races in the Dallas/Fort Worth area as he was when we were in high school. He was so much better than everyone else, it wasn't funny. We'd have 48 mile criterium races (8 laps, 6 miles per lap) and he would usually be a lap ahead of everyone by the end of the race.

He was greatly humbled by his bout with cancer, and it changed him, for the better. He realized he couldn't do it all by himself. He learned that while he has a ton of ability, he must have help to fully realize it. His arrogance turned to a straight-forward confidence, he listened first to his doctors during treatment, then his coaches and teammates when he returned to racing. He learned that physical talent alone can't win races, he needed his talent combined with the tactics of team racing.

But you are right that he has been extremely lucky in winning the races, avoiding some of the major pitfalls. But I think a large portion of this can be attributed to his teammates doing an incredible job of protecting him. Yesterday was a prime example, when his team was among the first to reach the cobblestones, and missing out on the carnage that soon followed. If you are near the front of the peloton, with a set of good teammates, that allows you to steer clear of a lot of the "bad luck" situations.You'd almost start to think that he needed the cancer to get himself motivated to win the Tour.

I remember his excellence in the pre-cancer years and I know he was outstanding in the spring of 1996. Still, it looked like he didn't care enough to someday win the tour. Even though he was brought with patience in his first two tours and withdrawn by the team management to avoid that he would ride himself over the top and because they had belief that Armstrong could be a Tour winner one day.

Armstrong was one of the top five riders, maybe the best since 1996, but he didn't look like a grand tour winner, but rather a second tier for those events. His 4th place in the tour of Spain in 1998 was when he (finally) turned out to be a potential tour winner.

But, to sum it up, I agree that he wasn't a surprise winner because of his talent, but rather his mentalilty.

And now back to watching Le Tour, the rain is really making this team time trail a scary day for the tour favorites. Falls from Julich, Basso, Sevilla and Leipheimer have been reported already and the day is far from over...

[QuikSand]

As far as most athlete controversies go, I really don't much care what the truth is. I really don't care all that much if Barry Bonds or other baseball stars are or were using steroids... I'd be angry if it were proven to be true, and I'd feel like the game was cheated to some degree, but it wouuldn't be a grave personal blow to me. Same with just about every other case I can imagine - Marion Jones, whomever.

But I have to say - I really, really hope that Lance Armstrong is on the level, and not cheating with doping of any sort. It would be awfully disappointing to find out that he was doping and cheating to achieve these great feats.

I don't claim to have any knowledge about doping in cycling - I knwo theer are rumors and accusations, but i know so little as to remain blissfully ignorant, like most people. What I do know is that by achieving the heights he has, under the circumstances he faced, Lance Armstrong has transcended mere sports and has become a role model for Americans. It would be a real shame - not just for him, but for us - if it's because he cheated.



Will he win? Beats me.

[fantastic flying froggies]

As I posted on this subject in the Hattrick thread :

Lance was very impressive in the prologue. I must confess though, I am not rooting for him this year as I was in previous years. I would not like it if he won a 6th tour, it would put him in a class of his own. Right now, with 5 wins, he stands with Hinault, Merx, Indurain and Anquetil I believe. And while he deserves it, I honestly don't think Lance is better than those guys...because they also won other major races, unlike him.


Also, in today team time trial stage, the US Postal is absolutely dominating ! I am watching the race right now, and they should finish at least 1 minute ahead of everybody else... More than anything, it is going to disgust all other possible winners...

[fantastic flying froggies]

dola - SPOILER ALERT






US Postal wins the stage and Armstrong nows has the Maillot Jaune... everybody else (but his teammates) are far behind !

[fantastic flying froggies]

triple dola - on french TV, Armstrong declares that he will not try to defend his yellow jersey right now, opening the door for 'unknown' riders to try and take it.
In his own words, Lance said 'I am willing to relinquish the jersey - for a while' !

[rkmsuf]

I like David Summers this year

[moriarty]

I like David Summers this year

Is he over the death of Kevin Costner yet?

[SirFozzie]

With the amount of blood and drug tests he goes through (basically year round), I find it VERY hard to believe he's doping..

[thealmighty]

Lance is very cocky, but doesn't seem at all funny.


BTW, especially as Lance is from the Metroplex (Plano, Tx.), I hope he kicks everyone's ass...HARD.

[judicial clerk]

I want to root for Lance, but I can't get over how he shot Greg Lemond in the back.

[MIJB#19]

Let's see if this ignore function really works... :trolleyes:

[MIJB#19]

Let's see if this ignore function really works... :trolleyes:Dola,
sadly as off topic as my previous post, but this got to be one of the best possible typos... :rolleyes:

[MIJB#19]

On-topic-dola,

Weird decission by the Tour organization, because the big gap that the US Postal team set, all teams got the predetirmened time difference per ranking. With these new rules on team time trial, I think that Armstrong has been robbed. So were other riders, I believe.

The gap between Ullrich and Hamilton was 12 seconds, but Hamilton got 8 bonus seconds compared to Ullrich. With the fixed time difference, Hamilton lost 20 seconds to Armstrong and Ullrich 40.
Ullrich lost 10 seconds compared to Mancebo, even though Mancebo had a time just 4 seconds better.
The gap between Mayo and Simoni was less then a second, yet with these rulings, Simoni got a 10 second gap with Mayo.

I really think this ruling has got to be reversed for next year.

[thealmighty]

It will only be reversed if Lance loses. The organizers assumed US Postal would be the best team and made new rules to keep them from swallowing too much time in the trial (that is, anyway, what I heard/believe).


yes, I am a homer.

[The_herd]

I agree, I was reading about that rule change before the tour started. Thought it was dumb then. Actually seeing it work only comfirms the fact that its simply a stupid rule that makes no sense.

[sterlingice]

Posting in this thread just to make sure I get email updates when updates come in. :)

SI

[Mr. Wednesday]

Really, the gaming of the TTT kinda sucks -- Postal is the best at it because they've made it a team goal and worked at it, it certainly wasn't the case earlier in Armstrong's string of wins.

For all of Armstrong's luck, he certainly didn't seem all that lucky last year. He had the crash in the Dauphine Libere (IIRC) that he said afterward hampered him more than people knew, perhaps also an early crash in the Tour? Plus the crash on the climb where he roared back to put time into Ullrich. And he also screwed up his hydration on the first individual time trial, which is of course more a personal/team error than bad luck.

[Airhog]

Well lance is down 9:00 minutes to the leader now, but luckily the people that broke away from the main pack dont seem to be in contention for the overall.

[cartman]

Well lance is down 9:00 minutes to the leader now, but luckily the people that broke away from the main pack dont seem to be in contention for the overall.

Yep, these are the guys that lose 20 or 30 minutes in each mountain stage. That's why they were allowed to run free like that today.

[Glengoyne]

Yep, these are the guys that lose 20 or 30 minutes in each mountain stage. That's why they were allowed to run free like that today.
I remember the first year I really followed the tour day by day Some guy broke away and put a twelve minute lead on Lance. I was thinking well that can't be good. The next day the tour hit the mountains, and lance ended the day with a 17 minute lead over the rest of the tour.


I still don't understand how the new TT rule works. Hopefully I will be able to take a look at it next week while I am on vacation.

[Mr. Wednesday]

The time gaps for the teams were capped based on finishing position, but the time gaps for the individual riders were not capped. That's the rule, in a nutshell.

The results got weird in two ways:
* When two teams were both over the cap for their position but had a time gap between them less than the gap between the caps, the second team would lose time relative to the first, because of the imposition of the caps.
* If a rider was dropped by his team and the team's time was adjusted due to the caps, the rider would lose additional time over and above the gap to his team.

[Draft Dodger]

I'm into my 2nd year of watching the Tour de France, and my only question is this:

what the hell does OLN do for programming the other 49 weeks of the year?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think OLN also shows the Vuelta and Giro. Also, they did a recap show with Lance a month or two after the Tour last year. They were showing the running of the bulls during the Tour broadcast last year (I don't know what they're doing this year since my idiot cable provider yanked OLN a month or so back).

Other than that, I don't know what they do.

[henry296]

I'm into my 2nd year of watching the Tour de France, and my only question is this:

what the hell does OLN do for programming the other 49 weeks of the year?

Lots of fishing and hunting shows.