Tuesday looks to be the biggest day in this year's Tour De France

[Glengoyne]

Yesterday was a big day that had the French Youngster gut it out in the mountains to hold onto the Yellow Jersey. Lance and the USPS team, kept dropping him on the climbs, but he managed to hold on to a 22 second lead over Armstrong at the end of the day. The stage ended with Armstrong and Ivan Basso riding side by side for the second day in a row. The two had essentially buried everyone else in contention. Just like the day before neither of them attacked, they seemed content to simply ride the stage out with each other. Today was a pretty uneventful day, although the stage winner staged a great attack to escape from his break away group. Essentially none of the guys in contention for the Overall competition moved in relation to one another.

Monday is a rest day, but Tuesday is shaping up to be a very big day. Well at least that is how I see it. On Tuesday they head into the Alps. In the two days in Pyrenees US Postal set a difficult pace that dropped just about everyone from the field. Only Armstrong and Basso were able to maintain that tempo, and neither of them seemed to be tested along the way. I honestly can't say who is now the stronger rider between the two of them right now. I don't think either of them can definately lay claim either, but I could be wrong there. One of them may know that the other is likely in better shape. On Tuesday, I think they will want to find the answer. One of them should attack. Basso needs to make up a minute and thirteen seconds, and Armstrong is probably in a position where he will want to make his move. I don't think Armstrong wants to wait to test Basso in the Time Trial on Wednesday. A big part of Armstrong's game is mental, he is confident enough to have previously feign weakness only to blow past and demoralize his challengers on his way up a climb.

I can't wait to see how it plays out. I don't think I was this excited with last year when Armstrong was only up 15 seconds to Ullrich.

[damnMikeBrown]

2 TT's left. Basso is no TT guy. The Tour is all but over at this point. You can watch what will no doubt be a valiant attack by Basso in the Alps, but even should he grab the Yellow Jersey, he'll have to put a huge amount of time between him and Lance to hold it. I just don't see Lance cracking to the tune of 7 minutes to Basso.

That being said, the Tour is the Tour, and anything can happen.

[MIJB#19]

Having followed Le Tour for twelve years tells me that every candidate to win has at least one bad day. Armstrong is very unlucky, he didn't have his yet.
For Ivan Basso I don't know, but the day that Mayo basically lost Le Tour, he was not good and his team had to bring him back to the group with Armstrong, Ullrich and Hamilton (how do I dare to use that name in the same sentence?)
Andreas Klöden can do it all, should not be counted out yet. With men like Botero, Guerini, Nardello and Aldag, you have a guy with enough other good riders to support him. Plus, Jan Ullrich wouldn't mind to help him out if that's where T-Mobile is heading.
And then there is the guy wearing "Le Mailloit Jaune", Thomas Voeckler. He's not to be underestimated either. People who expected that he would lose the yellow yersey before the second rest day (today), just don't follow cycling enough. And one of his career highlights came last May in the Alpes.


What do I expect to see the next six days?
Tuesday won't be a decission day. 180 km aint enough to force something big and the peak of the toughest mountain is 40 km from the finish. There will be enough opportunity to keep the gap between the best riders for the "classement general" to 2 minutes at most.

Wednesday will be day of one minute to two minutes between the best riders. The 15.5 km time trial to L'Alpe d'Huez will be tough, but not long enough to make a big gap.

Thursday has four very tough mountains and one a bit easier in the middle. The first one might be taken with the full 150 man peleton. That would leave about 150 km to force something. The toughest climb is the Col de Madelaine, but there is bound to be a 60 men group going to come together in the 50 km from the top to the start of the next climb, where the real battle will start (I can't see a group of 5-10 riders get away there and still be good enough to ride the last 70 km of the day). The last 10 km are downhill after the last big mountain of Le Tour. I think this will be pay day in the mountains.

Friday will be one of a group with 5 to 15 riders escaping, getting 15-20 minutes and see 1 or 2 riders get close to a top 10 spot, but nothing serious. My money is on Erik Dekker to do something big.

Saturday is a 55 km flat time trial. If things go as normal, Armstrong and Ullrich will be the top2 and be a minute or more better then everyone else. So, those who want to win have need to have more then 1m30secs ahead of the two former winners to have a chance to win this Tour.

Sunday, bunch sprint day. McEwen, Hushovd, Hondo, O'Grady and Zabel will be upset by Baden Cooke, who has been staying around only for this stage.

[sterlingice]

Mommy, he talks all funny. Make him stop (cool analysis, MIJB- useful for those of us who don't follow the sport) ;)

SI

[MIJB#19]

Mommy, he talks all funny. Make him stop (cool analysis, MIJB- useful for those of us who don't follow the sport) ;)

SIFor me, the past two weeks have been solely about Le Tour and about writing articles for my IHOF team, my beachvolley team and writing a bit about Le Tour. It's become daily routine... :o

[Glengoyne]

2 TT's left. Basso is no TT guy. The Tour is all but over at this point. You can watch what will no doubt be a valiant attack by Basso in the Alps, but even should he grab the Yellow Jersey, he'll have to put a huge amount of time between him and Lance to hold it. I just don't see Lance cracking to the tune of 7 minutes to Basso.

That being said, the Tour is the Tour, and anything can happen.
Basso is down, I think, a minute and thirteen to Lance. It may be around one minute thirty.

MIJB, I like your analysis, I think you have clearly thought more about this than I have. I guess my thinking is that it is obvious the race will be won no later than by the end of Thursday. The Wednesday time trial stage up l'Alpe d'huez(My appologies to the French in the likely event I butchered that) does not present much of a chance to effect the eventual outcome because it is only 15km. I don't think Basso will wait until Thursday to make his move, because he would only have that one opportunity to surpass Armstrong with enough of a lead to hold up in the last individual time trial. I think if Basso is going to try to win the tour, he will make his move Tuesday. I see where you are coming from saying the mountains are followed by 40km of flat ground. I just don't think Basso has a chance if he waits, and I think he is in this thing to win.

[Blackadar]

Basso is 1:39 behind...

[cthomer5000]

I think it looks like Lance will indeed pull it out again. Amazing how he made that 9:30 difference disappear so quickly.

[MIJB#19]

MIJB, I like your analysis, I think you have clearly thought more about this than I have. I guess my thinking is that it is obvious the race will be won no later than by the end of Thursday. The Wednesday time trial stage up l'Alpe d'huez(My appologies to the French in the likely event I butchered that) does not present much of a chance to effect the eventual outcome because it is only 15km. I don't think Basso will wait until Thursday to make his move, because he would only have that one opportunity to surpass Armstrong with enough of a lead to hold up in the last individual time trial. I think if Basso is going to try to win the tour, he will make his move Tuesday. I see where you are coming from saying the mountains are followed by 40km of flat ground. I just don't think Basso has a chance if he waits, and I think he is in this thing to win.With that, I have to agree. If Basso want to win, he and his team have to make a move on Tuesday, waiting for Thursday is impossible.

To me, the reporters have all been "In the Alpes it will be fireworks", but today I looked to the stage plans and adding some of my experience to the mix told me that it could be dissapointing if people expect huge gaps between favorites. I doubt that any of the three stages will be good enough to see the top riders end up seperated by more then 2 mins 30.

The gap is 1 min 17 seconds between Amstrong and Basso, in Lance's favor (of course). The flat time trial will likely give another 1 minute/1 minute 30 gap in Aromstrong's favor, adding up to about 2'15" to 3'00".

On Tuesday and Thursday, Team CSC need to come up with a plan to give Basso at least a 3 minutes advantage over Armstrong.

Alpe D'Huez will be a different time trial then normal ITTs, even typical climbers can do well there, it'll be Armstrong without his buddies Landis, Beltran and Azevedo. I have no idea what to expect there, really. It'll sure be a can't hide day. If Basso is for real, and he looks like it more then ever, he could win time in this stage against Armstrong.

Of course, I could be completly wrong, I haven't been at the sites itself to look at the roads and can only use the little info I have to get myself informed.

[MIJB#19]

I think it looks like Lance will indeed pull it out again. Amazing how he made that 9:30 difference disappear so quickly.I think that's something to put in perspective. I think the mistake is that US Postal and other teams with favorites gave Voeckler too much time to begin with.

The fact that Armstrong didn't get the yellow yet tells that they underestimated Voeckler big time. US Postal clearly expected to see Voeckler sink and lose 15 to 20 mins in the past mountain stages, but he didn't.

[Glengoyne]

I think that's something to put in perspective. I think the mistake is that US Postal and other teams with favorites gave Voeckler too much time to begin with.

The fact that Armstrong didn't get the yellow yet tells that they underestimated Voeckler big time. US Postal clearly expected to see Voeckler sink and lose 15 to 20 mins in the past mountain stages, but he didn't.
If USPS knew then about Voeckler, what they know now, there is no way they don't respond to his breakaway back on day 4(?). One of the reasons I could see for an Armstrong attack is Voeckler's grasp on the Yellow Jersey. I think it Voekler holding onto the lead was the first defeat of USPS in some time. I think they probably regard it as such as well.