Analyzing a Baseball Trade

[Vince]

Ok, I'm trying to figure out a way to look at a baseball trade analytically and completely. I am willing to use both objective and subjective means (so not simply stats). This is what I have so far...anything else you guys can come up with?

-Tangibles
-----Statistics
----------Offensive
----------Defensive
-----Salaries
-Intangibles
-----Future Potential
----------Future Production (Raw Statistics)
----------Future Growth (improvement)
-----Leadership

[Vince]

For those curious, my last paper ever at UCSB is an analysis of the trade between the Twins and Giants in the offseason, sending catcher AJ Pierzynski to the Giants in exchange for the middle reliever Joe Nathan and pitching prospects Boof Bonser and Francisco Liriano. My argument is going to be that although A.J. is a tremendous improvement for the Giants at catcher, the opportunity cost of his salary could have been spent to better effect on other areas, and the value of the pitchers is not enough to offset the improvement at catcher.

[albionmoonlight]

What about as intangibles things like:

Will sell more tickets (trading for an aging but very charismatic star)
Will alienate fans (i.e. Baltimore trading away Cal Ripken after he had achieved legend status).

Sends a message to the team (Trading away a locker room cancer to demonstrate that the team is serious about teamwork. Trading for and then overpaying a big deal player in order to send a message to the team that "managment is serious about winning.")

I think that all three of the above get to something more general--a "buzz" factor that does not translate into hits and strikes, but changes the way that a team is perceived by the media and the players.

[Vince]

Good call, albion. Exactly the kind of thing that's easy to overlook that I want to include in the analysis. Though in this case it doesn't seem to apply much -- maybe to alert fans that the Giants are still trying?

[pennywisesb]

What about as intangibles things like:

Will sell more tickets (trading for an aging but very charismatic star)
Will alienate fans (i.e. Baltimore trading away Cal Ripken after he had achieved legend status).

Sends a message to the team (Trading away a locker room cancer to demonstrate that the team is serious about teamwork. Trading for and then overpaying a big deal player in order to send a message to the team that "managment is serious about winning.")

I think that all three of the above get to something more general--a "buzz" factor that does not translate into hits and strikes, but changes the way that a team is perceived by the media and the players.

Or another intangible, the guy writing the paper is a huge dork ;)

[Vince]

Who lives with their parents at age 24?

Ouch.

[pennywisesb]

Vince, I don't know how you could add this in, but wasn't AJ's attitude an issue earlier in the year in the Giant's clubhouse? I never really heard anything negative about Joe Nathan when he was a Giant.

[pennywisesb]

Who lives with their parents at age 24?

Ouch.
Touche, but as you know, I make more money than you ;)

[RainRaven]

I would think that last idea hits it on the head Vince. The Giants don't have the money to play with Yankee type funds (course who does really) but the trade was an attempt at showing they would try something to get Bonds more help. My hometown Orioles would be a great target for trade analyzing or in my eyes seeing how little we have gotten over the last 10 years for trades.

[Vince]

I work 30 hours a week and make comparable money, how many hours do you work? ;)

And yes, I have AJ's lockerroom stuff from earlier this year in there already.

[pennywisesb]

I work 30 hours a week and make comparable money, how many hours do you work? ;)

And yes, I have AJ's lockerroom stuff from earlier this year in there already.

Vince, stop thread jacking your own thread. ;)

[Vince]

Hey, I'm just trying to make it look like the popular place to be. You know, elicit more responses.

[Joe]

Who lives with their parents at age 24?

Ouch.

I lived with my parents until I was 35.

[Travis]

Being an offseason trade, you could also factor in the 'quality' of available free agents compared to those acquired via the trade. If the asking price in free agency for comparable pitchers was much more per year, it makes the trade look that much better (or worse depending on the signing values).

Could have been a case of addressing a specific team need where a free agent answer wasn't avaliable.

[mckerney]

For those curious, my last paper ever at UCSB is an analysis of the trade between the Twins and Giants in the offseason, sending catcher AJ Pierzynski to the Giants in exchange for the middle reliever Joe Nathan and pitching prospects Boof Bonser and Francisco Liriano. My argument is going to be that although A.J. is a tremendous improvement for the Giants at catcher, the opportunity cost of his salary could have been spent to better effect on other areas, and the value of the pitchers is not enough to offset the improvement at catcher.

Looking at it from how it worked out for the Twins, no question is it a good deal. A.J. would be nice to have as depth right now, but a healthy Mauer starts over Pierzynski. And getting an all star closer and a couple solid prospects make this look like a big win for the Twins.

It's safe to say they got good value in most of their trades lately, with Kielty for Stewart, and their trade of Milton. Trading Pierzynski and Milton are great examples of factoring salary into the equation, and Stewart and example of leadership and stats.

Another thing to look at is how easy it will be for a team to replace what they gave up. In the case of Pierzynski the Twins had Joe Mauer ready, with Kielty they had such a deep minor league system of outfielders that even if they were unable to resign Stewart it wouldn't hurt them that much. As far as the Twins upcoming trade of Mientkiewicz, replacing him isn't an issue as he's being pushed out of the starting first base spot, and it far more valuble as trade bait than a backup.

[Vince]

Yeah, I definitely agree. As a Giants fan though, and with only a ten page limit, I'm limiting my research to the impact on the San Francisco end...and sadly, it's not looking so good. I'm doing my best to remember that the Giants thought Nen would be healthy to start the year back in November...but man, could we be spending AJ's 3.5 million salary in a much better place :(

[Raven]

What about the "now" factor. ie If you have some older stars on your team, you may feel that now is your best opportunity to win. So you trade a young hot prospect for someone that comes in and improves your current team today.

You also have to consider injuries when analyzing trades. Maybe the only reason you trade for a player is because your starter is out for a few months or the whole year.