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Arles
07-31-2004, 03:41 PM
Figured we could keep it all to this thread.

New trades:

Yanks send Contreras and cash to the White Sox for Esteban Loaiza
Dodgers sent RP Tom Martin to the Braves for a minor league pitcher
Marlins send Abraham Nunez to the Royals for Rudy Seanez

Cubs got Nomar and LA got Finley. But no specifics on either.

Danny
07-31-2004, 03:43 PM
Im curious to see who was given up for Nomar and Finley.

Danny
07-31-2004, 03:44 PM
I also just read that Dave Roberts was traded to Boston for minor leaguers. Not sure how good the source is though.

Vince
07-31-2004, 03:45 PM
Nomar deal is apparently a four-team affair.

pennywisesb
07-31-2004, 03:45 PM
Why did the White Sox trade Loaiza for Contreras? Contreras sucks.

Danny
07-31-2004, 03:46 PM
Yup, possibly including Matt Clement, Orlando Cabrera and Derek Lowe.

MrBug708
07-31-2004, 03:47 PM
Cubs going to make their run this year huh? Nomar wants to come back to SoCal, so I don't see him resigning

Nice to see the Dodgers scraping their pen...

Danny
07-31-2004, 03:48 PM
MrBug, Tom Martin is terrible. That should be addition by subtraction.

General Mike
07-31-2004, 03:58 PM
Derek Lowe is a Twinkie according to FoxSports.com In related news Doug Mientkiwicz and Orlando Cabrera to Boston.

http://msn.foxsports.com/story/2626402

Arles
07-31-2004, 04:03 PM
Marlins got Ismail Valdes from the Padres for Class A pitcher Travis Chick.

pennywisesb
07-31-2004, 04:06 PM
Marlins got Ismail Valdes from the Padres for Class A pitcher Travis Chick.
Wow, essentially giving up Brad Penny for Ishmael Valdez. Great move Marlins. :rolleyes:

MrBug708
07-31-2004, 04:07 PM
He;s an innings eater...

Arles
07-31-2004, 04:08 PM
Wow, essentially giving up Brad Penny for Ishmael Valdez. Great move Marlins. :rolleyes:

More like Penny and Choi for LoDuca, Valdes, Seanez, Encarnacion and Mota. When you figure they have Beckett coming off the DL as well, I don't see how anyone can say the Marlins are worse than they were two days ago.

pennywisesb
07-31-2004, 04:08 PM
He;s an innings eater...
Brad Penny is an innings eater who also has a low career ERA.

pennywisesb
07-31-2004, 04:09 PM
More like Penny and Choi for LoDuca, Valdes, Seanez, Encarnacion and Mota. When you figure they have Beckett coming off the DL as well, I don't see how anyone can say the Marlins are worse than they were two days ago.
Its all about starting pitching, and they definately have downgraded in the last 2 days.

Fouts
07-31-2004, 04:10 PM
I heard the dodgers dealt their prospect catcher for brent mayne, might be part of the Finley deal.

Arles
07-31-2004, 04:11 PM
Valdes and Beckett for Penny is a downgrade?

cschex
07-31-2004, 04:11 PM
Hey, at least Contreras has flashes of good pitching. Loiaza is done, and has been all year. This trade makes no sense for either team.

Shaun Sullivan
07-31-2004, 04:12 PM
Gammons just said the Sox got Dave Roberts from the Dodgers. I don't mind picking up a little speed off the bench...

pennywisesb
07-31-2004, 04:13 PM
Valdes and Beckett for Penny is a downgrade?
Beckett, Willis, Pavano, Burnett, and Penny is a much better rotation than, Becket, Willis (whichever one shows up for the game, good or bad), Pavano, Burnett, and Valdez (poor mans Chan Ho Park)

Edit: to show Burnett

General Mike
07-31-2004, 04:14 PM
Hey, at least Contreras has flashes of good pitching. Loiaza is done, and has been all year. This trade makes no sense for either team.

At least the Yankees got rid of Contreras' contract. I guess it really doesn't make a difference to them tho.

Fouts
07-31-2004, 04:14 PM
what about AJ?

Edit: Burnett I meant, in the Marlins rotation.

Double Edit: you changed it.

cschex
07-31-2004, 04:15 PM
Um yeah, Valdez isn't at all good, and he's had problems with blisters his entire career. For that matter, so has Beckett. I think banking on them both to stay healthy AND Lo Duca not to repeat his annual second-half swoon AND Encarnacion to not completely suck is asking a whole lot.

Danny
07-31-2004, 04:15 PM
Arizona got Koyie Hill and Abercrombie from the Dodgers for FInley. Hill is a solid prospect, but Abercrombie isnt much of on as a 24 year old struggling at Vero Beach.

Arles
07-31-2004, 04:17 PM
Beckett, Willis, Pavano, Burnett, and Penny is a much better rotation than, Becket, Willis (whichever one shows up for the game, good or bad), Pavano, Burnett, and Valdez (poor mans Chan Ho Park)

Edit: to show Burnett
Here's the thing. Beckett has been hurt, so him coming off the DL is like getting another pitcher in a deal. What would you rather have:

starting rotation of:

Beckett, Willis, Pavano, Burnett, and Penny

Plus

1B Choi

Or

Beckett, Willis, Pavano, Burnett and Valdez

PLUS

C LoDuca, RP Seanez, OF Encarnacion, RP Mota


I would glady swap out fifth starters to add guys like Mota and LoDuca.

Arles
07-31-2004, 04:18 PM
Arizona got Koyie Hill and Abercrombie from the Dodgers for FInley. Hill is a solid prospect, but Abercrombie isnt much of on as a 24 year old struggling at Vero Beach.
What positions are Hill and Abercrombie?

cschex
07-31-2004, 04:19 PM
Yeah but Penny wasn't the "5th starter." He was their second-best starter. The Bullpen is upgraded but the starting pitching is downgraded by a lot and the offense might be as well.

Danny
07-31-2004, 04:19 PM
Encarnacion is a minus. Loduca will help unless he has another bad 2nd half like he normally does. Penny is better than Valdes. They would have gotten Becket back no matter what, so thats meaningless in the context of the trades. They also lost some good prospects.

pennywisesb
07-31-2004, 04:21 PM
Here's the thing. Beckett has been hurt, so him coming off the DL is like getting another pitcher in a deal. What would you rather have:

starting rotation of:

Beckett, Willis, Pavano, Burnett, and Penny

Plus

1B Choi

Or

Beckett, Willis, Pavano, Burnett and Valdez

PLUS

C LoDuca, RP Seanez, OF Encarnacion, RP Mota


I would glady swap out fifth starters to add guys like Mota and LoDuca.
You are assuming Penny is the 4th-5th starter. He was actually the #2 guy there, and for most of the year the #1 since Becket was hurt. Lo Duca is known for his second half swoon's while Encarnacion has been terrible this year.

Arles
07-31-2004, 04:21 PM
Yeah but Penny wasn't the "5th starter." He was their second-best starter. The Bullpen is upgraded but the starting pitching is downgraded by a lot and the offense might be as well.
I would put Pavano, Beckett and Willis above Penny. Penny to me is a nice No. 3, kind of like a Miguel Batista for the DBacks a few years back.

Danny
07-31-2004, 04:23 PM
Only Pavano has a better ERA than Penny

cschex
07-31-2004, 04:23 PM
Penny actually has the best track record of all four of those pitchers, as well as being consistantly good this year. He's much more than Batista (not a bad pitcher) with the D'Backs.

Arles
07-31-2004, 04:25 PM
Florida's two catchers were hitting a combined .245 with 2 HRs and 25 RBI in 260 ABs. That's awful. Their setup guys had ERAs in the high 4s and 5s. Getting Mota and Lo Duca (enormous upgrades to both) and giving up a pitcher that probably wouldn't even pitch in the top 3 in a short series seems like a nice move to improve your team.

Arles
07-31-2004, 04:27 PM
Do you guys really think that McKeon was going to sit Pavano, Beckett or Willis for Penny if the Marlins made the playoffs?

cschex
07-31-2004, 04:27 PM
Don't forget the serious downgrade at 1B.

cschex
07-31-2004, 04:29 PM
Maybe he wouldn't have, but Josh Beckett has yet to stay healthy for an extended period of time. For that matter, he hasn't been consistent when he has pitched. One stellar playoffs does not make a superstar. Willis has been very up-and-down this year as well.

They also actually have to MAKE the playoffs first, and I don't see how it's clear-cut that this put them in a better position to do so.

Vince
07-31-2004, 04:30 PM
Do you guys really think that McKeon was going to sit Pavano, Beckett or Willis for Penny if the Marlins made the playoffs?
Why not run a four-man rotation?

Danny
07-31-2004, 04:31 PM
Penny in last years WS was 2-0. Penny is really a much better pitcher than the overhyped Willis and he should be started over everyone except a healthy Beckett.

Arles
07-31-2004, 04:31 PM
Double dola, Penny hasn't made it past the 6th inning since early June. And since late June, he's seen his ERA go up almost 50 points (2.65 to 3.13). Willis, on the other hand, had a 2.74 ERA in July and has seen his drop from 4.24 to 3.86 in that month.

It seems that Penny is starting to run out of steam right as Florida traded him.

pennywisesb
07-31-2004, 04:34 PM
If a 3.15 ERA is running out of steam, I wish the entire A's staff was made up of Brad Penny's. WOW Arles, come on.

Danny
07-31-2004, 04:34 PM
and yet Penny still have a much lower ERA than WIllis, more innings and a much better Whip and better K/BB ratio.

pennywisesb
07-31-2004, 04:36 PM
Also, Lo Duca's power numbers are almost the same as the catchers the Marlins were using before the trade and his defense isn't an upgrade either. The only difference is his BA and OBP. So I wouldn't say "huge" upgrade.

cschex
07-31-2004, 04:44 PM
I just want to re-iterate that I understand the Marlins' rationale for this deal. I just think it's a giant risk for them and also weakens their team in the long run.

Arles
07-31-2004, 04:45 PM
If a 3.15 ERA is running out of steam, I wish the entire A's staff was made up of Brad Penny's. WOW Arles, come on.
His ERA was at 2.12 going into June 1.

Here's Panny's last 6 starts:

5 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 2 K, 3 BB
6 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 K, 3 BB
6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 5 K, 2 BB
5 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 K, 0 BB
6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 K, 4 BB
5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4 K, 1 BB

That's not all that great output for a top tier starter as some here are implying he is. If Penny's a legit top 2 guy in the rotation, he ought to be able to go more than 6 innings from time to time as well.

Joe
07-31-2004, 04:51 PM
Derek Lowe is a Twinkie according to FoxSports.com In related news Doug Mientkiwicz and Orlando Cabrera to Boston.

http://msn.foxsports.com/story/2626402

foxsports is wrong, Derek lowe is not involved

Danny
07-31-2004, 04:53 PM
The innings are a little low, but only two of those starts did he give up more than 2 ER. If that's what Penny's bad streaks are going to look like then I'll be very happy with him in LA.

Arles
07-31-2004, 04:53 PM
Also, Lo Duca's power numbers are almost the same as the catchers the Marlins were using before the trade and his defense isn't an upgrade either. The only difference is his BA and OBP. So I wouldn't say "huge" upgrade.

LoDuca: .301, 10 HR, 49 RBI, .351 OBP, .795 OPS

Marlins catchers: .217, 5 HR, 32 RBI, .291 OBP, .318 OPS

If that's not a huge upgrade, I have no idea what is.

Arles
07-31-2004, 04:57 PM
OK, here's the LA-AZ deal:

Dodgers get Finley and Brent Mayne

DBacks get C Koyie Hill, OF Reggie Abercrombie and SP Bill Murphy

Good deal for both ends. Giving up Werth would have been overpaying for a 40-year old FA in Finley, but Arizona got the good young pitching and catching prospect they were after for two guys that would be FAs at seasons end.

Plus, they didn't have to trade RJ to get them.

cschex
07-31-2004, 04:58 PM
Encarnacion .235 13 HR, .289! OBP, .417 SLG

Choi .270 15 HR, .388 OBP, .495 SLG

I think it runs both ways

pennywisesb
07-31-2004, 04:59 PM
That's not all that great output for a top tier starter as some here are implying he is. If Penny's a legit top 2 guy in the rotation, he ought to be able to go more than 6 innings from time to time as well.

First of all, its just a fact that he's been their #2 starter for most of this year which would put him in the top tier category apparently. Secondly, since earlier you said you'd rather have Dontrelle Willis instead of Penny, here are Willis' last 10 starts:

6/8 @CLE W 7-5 5.0 8 3 1 0 1 5 12 2 24 101 47 -- -- 3.51
6/13 @DET W 9-2 9.0 7 2 2 0 0 8 9 4 31 108 73 W(6-3) -- 3.33
6/19 TEX L 6-7 4.2 9 7 4 2 2 4 6 9 27 106 26 L(6-4) -- 3.58
6/24 ATL L 4-9 4.0 7 6 6 0 4 3 6 5 21 82 23 L(6-5) -- 4.03
6/29 @ATL W 5-4 4.1 9 4 4 1 1 1 11 6 22 74 29 -- -- 4.24
7/6 PIT W 6-3 6.0 5 1 1 1 3 3 12 4 26 104 58 -- -- 4.07
7/11 NYM W 5-2 6.1 6 2 2 0 1 7 7 8 26 110 59 W(7-5) -- 3.99
7/19 @NYM W 6-5 7.0 8 5 4 1 1 5 11 5 27 103 47 -- -- 4.07
7/24 @MON L 2-6 6.0 3 3 2 0 0 5 10 3 22 95 61 L(7-6) -- 4.01
7/29 PHI W 10-1 7.0 5 1 1 0 0 5 8 8 26 98 68 W(8-6) -- 3.86

Not exactly a model of consistency, at least Penny makes it to the 5th each start ;)

Arles
07-31-2004, 05:03 PM
Encarnacion .235 13 HR, .289! OBP, .417 SLG

Choi .270 15 HR, .388 OBP, .495 SLG

I think it runs both ways
I don't think so, Choi strikes out a bunch. Despite having 40 more ABs than Choi, Encarnacion struck out 25 times fewer. Now, I think Encarnacion isn't as good a player as Choi, but the difference is nowhere near the 84 point average and 400 point OPS difference between LoDuca and the Marlins catchers.

Danny
07-31-2004, 05:05 PM
Strikeouts are meaningless when it comes to their influence on scoring runs. And the difference is huge based on their numbers.

Arles
07-31-2004, 05:07 PM
First of all, its just a fact that he's been their #2 starter for most of this year which would put him in the top tier category apparently. Secondly, since earlier you said you'd rather have Dontrelle Willis instead of Penny, here are Willis' last 10 starts:

6/8 @CLE W 7-5 5.0 8 3 1 0 1 5 12 2 24 101 47 -- -- 3.51
6/13 @DET W 9-2 9.0 7 2 2 0 0 8 9 4 31 108 73 W(6-3) -- 3.33
6/19 TEX L 6-7 4.2 9 7 4 2 2 4 6 9 27 106 26 L(6-4) -- 3.58
6/24 ATL L 4-9 4.0 7 6 6 0 4 3 6 5 21 82 23 L(6-5) -- 4.03
6/29 @ATL W 5-4 4.1 9 4 4 1 1 1 11 6 22 74 29 -- -- 4.24
7/6 PIT W 6-3 6.0 5 1 1 1 3 3 12 4 26 104 58 -- -- 4.07
7/11 NYM W 5-2 6.1 6 2 2 0 1 7 7 8 26 110 59 W(7-5) -- 3.99
7/19 @NYM W 6-5 7.0 8 5 4 1 1 5 11 5 27 103 47 -- -- 4.07
7/24 @MON L 2-6 6.0 3 3 2 0 0 5 10 3 22 95 61 L(7-6) -- 4.01
7/29 PHI W 10-1 7.0 5 1 1 0 0 5 8 8 26 98 68 W(8-6) -- 3.86

Not exactly a model of consistency, at least Penny makes it to the 5th each start ;)

Look at his last 5 starts:
6 IP, 1 ER
6.1 IP, 2 ER
7 IP, 4 ER
6 IP, 2 ER
7 IP, 1 ER

It seems like Willis is starting to get into his own as Penny slides down to a 5-6 inning guy. Again, Penny is no more than an average No. 3 on a decent team. Willis is probably about the same. So, trading a guy that would be No. 3 or 4 in your rotation for guys like LoDuca and Mota (given the current guys at C and RP on Florida) seems like a good deal.

Now, I think LA got nice value in Penny for LoDuca and Mota. I just think that Florida is a better team after the deal because they really have no holes after this trade.

pennywisesb
07-31-2004, 05:09 PM
Well, I'm not gonna lie, I really like Mota, and I think the Marlins did great to bring him in, I just can't stand Encarnacion and I'm glad the Dodgers parted with him.

Danny
07-31-2004, 05:09 PM
Penny is 12th in the Major Leagues in ERA, average #3? Maybe if there were only 4 teams in the league.

Arles
07-31-2004, 05:12 PM
Strikeouts are meaningless when it comes to their influence on scoring runs. And the difference is huge based on their numbers.
Choi had 40 RBI and 48 runs, Encarnacion had 43 RBI and 42 runs. I don't see that much of a difference here, esp considering how putrid Choi is with runners in scoring position.

cschex
07-31-2004, 05:13 PM
I don't think so, Choi strikes out a bunch. Despite having 40 more ABs than Choi, Encarnacion struck out 25 times fewer. Now, I think Encarnacion isn't as good a player as Choi, but the difference is nowhere near the 84 point average and 400 point OPS difference between LoDuca and the Marlins catchers.

It isn't 400 points of OPS. You accidently took the SLG for the Marlins catchers and listed it as total OPS. The actual OPS is .609, I believe, making the difference almost identical between that of Choi and Encarnacion.

pennywisesb
07-31-2004, 05:15 PM
Choi had 40 RBI and 48 runs, Encarnacion had 43 RBI and 42 runs. I don't see that much of a difference here, esp considering how putrid Choi is with runners in scoring position.
In 100 fewer ABs.

Arles
07-31-2004, 05:15 PM
Penny is 12th in the Major Leagues in ERA, average #3? Maybe if there were only 4 teams in the league.
Miguel Batista had a 3.36 ERA as the No. 3 in 2001. The problem was he rarely went more than 5 innings. A top 2 starter should have an ERA in the low 3s, but also be able to go 7 innings somewhat consistently. That's not Penny.

Danny
07-31-2004, 05:16 PM
RBI and runs are dependant on more than the just the hitter themsevles, therefore can not be considered a reliable stat in comparing hitters.

And there is no such thing as clutchness. but if you want to bring it up Choi has a .947 OPS with runners in scoring position while Encarnacion's sits at .770

pennywisesb
07-31-2004, 05:16 PM
Miguel Batista had a 3.36 ERA as the No. 3 in 2001. The problem was he rarely went more than 5 innings. A top 2 starter should have an ERA in the low 3s, but also be able to go 7 innings somewhat consistently. That's not Penny.
Tell that to Greg Maddux. He spent alot of his career going 6 innings. Thats part of the reason he's been able to pitch so long.

Arles
07-31-2004, 05:18 PM
Choi had 40 RBI and 48 runs, Encarnacion had 43 RBI and 42 runs. I don't see that much of a difference here, esp considering how putrid Choi is with runners in scoring position.

In 100 fewer ABs.

Interesting math since Choi has 281 ABs and Encarnacio 324. Looks like closer to 40 to me.

Danny
07-31-2004, 05:19 PM
Miguel Batista had a 3.36 ERA as the No. 3 in 2001. The problem was he rarely went more than 5 innings. A top 2 starter should have an ERA in the low 3s, but also be able to go 7 innings somewhat consistently. That's not Penny.

Penny hasnt had a start last under 5 innings all season. The fact that over a small one month sample size that he didnt last over 6 doesnt mean much when he has consistently given the Marline 5-7 innings every single start.

Arles
07-31-2004, 05:19 PM
Just to be sure I'm hearing things right, people are saying that the increase from the Marlins catchers to LoDuca is about the same as the difference between Choi and Encarnacion, right?

Just want to make sure.

Crapshoot
07-31-2004, 05:22 PM
Here's the thing. Beckett has been hurt, so him coming off the DL is like getting another pitcher in a deal. What would you rather have:

starting rotation of:

Beckett, Willis, Pavano, Burnett, and Penny

Plus

1B Choi

Or

Beckett, Willis, Pavano, Burnett and Valdez

PLUS

C LoDuca, RP Seanez, OF Encarnacion, RP Mota


I would glady swap out fifth starters to add guys like Mota and LoDuca.


ROFFLE! The problem with this "analysis" is that Penny's been the Fish's second best SP this year. Valdes has an era of 5.53- the W-L records, as always , are pretty damn irrelevant . Encarnacion is a replacement level OF who the Fish now owe 4 million to next year, money that they could have used on Penny. Lo Doca is a 32 year old C with an OPS under .800, and Mota is 31- Choi has 40 Hr potential and an OPS of close to 900, even while having to sit for proven veteran Jeff Conine. they got worse offensively, worse SP, got older, but improved their bullpen- great "win" for the mArlins.

Danny
07-31-2004, 05:22 PM
Arlie, want to take a guess at what Loduca's post All-Star break stats have been over the last 3+ seasons? .252 BA, and a .680 OPS.

pennywisesb
07-31-2004, 05:22 PM
Interesting math since Choi has 281 ABs and Encarnacio 324. Looks like closer to 40 to me.
My bad, so 40 fewer, I made the mistake of taking someone else's math in a different thread, but even so, my argument stands that Choi has produced better numbers in fewer ABs. Plus, the kid is still young, he has a HUGE upside.

cschex
07-31-2004, 05:23 PM
Just to be sure I'm hearing things right, people are saying that the increase from the Marlins catchers to LoDuca is about the same as the difference between Choi and Encarnacion, right?

Just want to make sure.


Essentially, yes. I don't see how that's such an amazing statement. Encarnacion is BAD. Really, really bad.

Arles
07-31-2004, 05:24 PM
Penny hasnt had a start last under 5 innings all season. The fact that over a small one month sample size that he didnt last over 6 doesnt mean much when he has consistently given the Marline 5-7 innings every single start.
Again, he's a nice No. 3. He'll go 5 to 6 innings and allow 2-3 runs in most starts. Out of his 21 starts, he's had 6 where he pitched 7 or more innings. And, he's had only two in his 15 starts since May 6.

Crapshoot
07-31-2004, 05:25 PM
LoDuca: .301, 10 HR, 49 RBI, .351 OBP, .795 OPS

Marlins catchers: .217, 5 HR, 32 RBI, .291 OBP, .318 OPS

If that's not a huge upgrade, I have no idea what is.

um no- that's blatantly wrong. I think you mean a .318 Slg, which would give them an OPS of .600. which is not a 400 point gap.

As for Brad Penny- man, beckett has turned one good game into the perception that he's a HOF bound pitcher. he has all the talent in the world, but he has yet ot put it together- give it some time yet before annointing him as a no 1.

Arles
07-31-2004, 05:27 PM
Essentially, yes. I don't see how that's such an amazing statement. Encarnacion is BAD. Really, really bad.
OK, so you feel the difference here:

Marlins catchers: .217, 5 HR, 32 RBI, .291 OBP, .580 OPS

LoDuca: .301, 10 HR, 49 RBI, .351 OBP, .795 OPS

is the same as here:

Encarnacion .235 13 HR, 43 RBI, .289 OBP, .705 SLG

Choi .270 15 HR, 40 RBI .388 OBP, .882 OPS

I must be having a hard time seeing or something.

Vince
07-31-2004, 05:30 PM
Josh likes to make numbers up some times :)

I can see where you're coming from with the innings theory, Arles, but I think saying Penny's no better than an 'average' #3 SP is selling him a little short. Let's look at some typical #3 pitchers in the MLB, shall we?

Brad Penny - 131 IP, 105 K, 3.15 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Russ Ortiz - 138 IP, 104 K, 3.19 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Casey Fossum - 78 IP (15 Starts), 61 K, 6.55 ERA, 1.63 WHIP
Adam Eaton - 127 IP, 89 K, 4.74 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Jeff Suppan - 123 IP, 74 K, 4.02 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Mark Redman - 121 IP, 64 K, 4.73 ERA, 1.54 WHIP
Kyle Lohse - 126 IP, 65 K, 5.21 ERA, 1.66 WHIP
Jon Garland - 139 IP, 72 K, 4.59 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Just grabbing a few teams' #3 starter according to ESPNs Depth Charts, I tried to pick a good mix of strong and weak teams. This is a relatively low sample size, but I'd be willing to bet there are probably 5 teams in the majors that wouldn't be improved by slotting Penny into the #3 slot in the rotation. Most teams by a lot. He's better than an average #3 SP.

cschex
07-31-2004, 05:31 PM
It's already been pointed out, but the Marlin catchers have a .318 SLG, not .318 OPS. I think that makes the difference. If there was a ~400 point gap in OPS, then I'd absolutely agree with you.

Crapshoot
07-31-2004, 05:32 PM
btw, Mike Redmond: .245/306/332, for an OPS of 638. so a 160 point OPS difference (for a 32 year old, arb eligible, looking at 6 million in arb catcher) is worth giving up your .880 OPS 26 year old 1b (cheap) who's got power potential galore, and for taking on $4 million worth of replacement level talent in Encarnacion ? Pray, explain this - the math doesnt work out. Hell, I wouldnt have dealt Choi for LoDuca and Encarnacion- the Marlins did that, then threw in a 28 year old pitcher with a 3.15 era, along with a top prospect, for a MR who is great, but has probably had the best year of his career.

Vince
07-31-2004, 05:32 PM
He's pointing out that the Marlin's catchers' OPS you have listed (.318) is actually their SLG, which would make their OPS .609.

pennywisesb
07-31-2004, 05:33 PM
Josh likes to make numbers up some times :)


Who, me? ;)

Danny
07-31-2004, 05:34 PM
Aadik, also Penny is 26, not 28

cschex
07-31-2004, 05:36 PM
Just grabbing a few teams' #3 starter according to ESPNs Depth Charts, I tried to pick a good mix of strong and weak teams. This is a relatively low sample size, but I'd be willing to bet there are probably 5 teams in the majors that wouldn't be improved by slotting Penny into the #3 slot in the rotation. Most teams by a lot. He's better than an average #3 SP.

Especially for the Dodgers, where he definitely strengthens what's been an average rotation so far this year and becomes either the #1 or #2 starter.

Arles
07-31-2004, 05:37 PM
Josh likes to make numbers up some times :)

I can see where you're coming from with the innings theory, Arles, but I think saying Penny's no better than an 'average' #3 SP is selling him a little short. Let's look at some typical #3 pitchers in the MLB, shall we?

Brad Penny - 131 IP, 105 K, 3.15 ERA, 1.24 WHIP


Casey Fossum - 78 IP (15 Starts), 61 K, 6.55 ERA, 1.63 WHIP
Come on now. There is no way Fossum is an average No. 3. He wouldn't even be starting on a team in a pennant race.

Again, I was referring to teams in the playoff race. And, Marquis is the No. 3 in St. Louis not Suppan (even though ESPN shows otherwise).

I would put Penny and Marquis at about equal value. Penny has a slightly better ERA, while Marquis has been going much later into games over the past few months. Since that May 6 mark, Marquis has gone into the 7th inning 8 times, compared to only two for Penny.

Crapshoot
07-31-2004, 05:39 PM
Aadik, also Penny is 26, not 28

My bad. So they gave him up right as he's about to enter his peak. Heck, dealing Pavano would have made more sense, since he's an FA, even if he has been better - but Penny ? I mean seriously - WTF ? The Dodgers got away with grand larceny here- if this wasnt baseball, they'd be charged with Fraud.

Arles
07-31-2004, 05:43 PM
I think the loss that occurred by moving Beckett, Willis and Burnett up to the 2, 3 and 4 spots in the rotation because of Penny leaving is well worth going from Mike Redman to Paul LoDuca and Ben Howard to Mota.

The Encarnacion-Choi difference isn't all that great since both are essentially at the same runs, HR, and RBI. The average and OBP difference make Choi better, but neither are all that great a player.

Going from Redman to Lo Duca and Howard to Mota is going from a stiff to an All-Star in both instances.

Vince
07-31-2004, 05:43 PM
Arles - I wasn't trying to look up average number threes, but to show a spread from different teams of what a #3 pitcher is to them. Obviously, Fossum is the bottom of the barrel.

I didn't intend for the small sample to be accurate at all, really. I mean, ESPN's depth charts could be off (like you pointed out), my 'random picking' could be totally off, etc. Just trying to show that the typical #3 starter is MUCH worse than 3.15 ERA, 1.24 WHIP.

JonInMiddleGA
07-31-2004, 05:44 PM
Tell that to Greg Maddux. He spent alot of his career going 6 innings. Thats part of the reason he's been able to pitch so long.

Full-seasons as a 100% starter -
1988 - 7.3 IP/Start
1989 - 6.9 IP/Start
1990 - 6.8 IP/Start
1991 - 7.1 IP/Start
1992 - 7.7 IP/Start
1993 - 7.4 IP/Start
1994 - 8.1 IP/Start
1995 - 7.5 IP/Start
1996 - 7.0 IP/Start
1997 - 7.0 IP/Start
1998 - 7.4 IP/Start
1999 - 6.6 IP/Start
2000 - 7.1 IP/Start
2001 - 6.9 IP/Start
2002 - 5.9 IP/Start
2003 - 6.1 IP/Start
2004 - 6.4 IP/Start (YTD)
Avg from 88 to 04 = 6.996 innings per start

10/17 seasons 7 IP/Start or more
13/17 seasons at 6.6 or better

That's not what I'd call "a lot of his career going 6 innings".

You may be able to make your point, but you picked a bad example to try to do it with.

Crapshoot
07-31-2004, 05:45 PM
btw, Penny ranks 20th in the majors amongst pitchers in VORP- which given 30 teams, makes him a no 3 somehow- interesting arguement. Marquis has been SL's best pitcher this year, and ranks 30th on that list. The pitchers in the NL who have ranked higher than Penny this year: Sheets, Schmidt, Glavine, Leiter, Johnson, Pavano, Hernandez, Zambrano, Clement, and Russ Ortiz.

Vince
07-31-2004, 05:45 PM
If you want to see #3's from teams in the pennant race, why not take a look, then?

Padres - Eaton
Giants - Reuter
Dodgers - Ishii before the trade?
Cards - Marquis
Cubs - Clement
Braves - Ortiz
Marlins - Penny

How many guys on that list are better than Penny? If you expand it to the AL, it gets worse...Lohse, Regilio (? from Texas), Redman, Loaiza, Garland.

Arles
07-31-2004, 05:48 PM
Penny had an outstading April and May. Since then, he's been pretty much a 5-6 inning, 2-4 ER guy. If that's what you want from a No. 2, so be it.

Crapshoot
07-31-2004, 05:51 PM
more Penny statistics, because this no 3 arguement amuses the hell out of me : 11th in the NL in ERA, 21st in IP (6.1 Innings less than the no 11, Jeff Weaver). 13th in the NL among starters in K/9. again, this is at age 26.

Arles
07-31-2004, 05:52 PM
If you want to see #3's from teams in the pennant race, why not take a look, then?

Padres - Eaton
Giants - Reuter
Dodgers - Ishii before the trade?
Cards - Marquis
Cubs - Clement
Braves - Ortiz
Marlins - Penny

How many guys on that list are better than Penny? If you expand it to the AL, it gets worse...Lohse, Regilio (? from Texas), Redman, Loaiza, Garland.

Look at Penny's starts for June and July here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?statsId=6276

Then tell me you think he's a good No. 2. The guy has more 5 run games (3) than 7+ inning efforts (1). And in nearly half those starts he only went 5 innings. Seems like a guy that could use someone like Mota to come in the 6th and 7th for him ;)

Crapshoot
07-31-2004, 05:55 PM
I think the loss that occurred by moving Beckett, Willis and Burnett up to the 2, 3 and 4 spots in the rotation because of Penny leaving is well worth going from Mike Redman to Paul LoDuca and Ben Howard to Mota.

The Encarnacion-Choi difference isn't all that great since both are essentially at the same runs, HR, and RBI. The average and OBP difference make Choi better, but neither are all that great a player.

Going from Redman to Lo Duca and Howard to Mota is going from a stiff to an All-Star in both instances.

Once again, RBI= context dependent statistic. If Choi played on the higher ranked Dodger offense (no 2 in the NL), he would probably have more RBI's. using them as an evaluation tool is pointless, meaningless, and more likely to be misleading. this is fairly obvious. regarding the HR, Choi has a slugging percentage that is 70 points higher- and an OBP that is a 100 points higher- they're arent anywhere near similar as players, and its hardly a comparison to make.

Arles
07-31-2004, 06:11 PM
No, I think that both Choi and Encarnacion are average at best players. Choi projects to be about a .270, 25 HR, 75 RBI guy. Whoopee. Encarnacion is hitting 30 points below his career average, so you would think it will probably improve by the end of the season. Still, he's no better than average either.

LoDuca and Mota are arguably the best catcher (outside of maybe Piazza) and setup guy in the NL right now. Getting those two guys is worth Penny when you have crap at catcher and reliever before, not to mention a staff of Pavano, Beckett, Willis and Burnett already there.

If Penny was one of the "best in the majors", why wasn't he listed as any of the 15 starting pitchers in the All Star game? He's a nice pitcher that had a great start in April and May but has fallen back into his "good No. 3" talent in the past two months.

pennywisesb
07-31-2004, 06:19 PM
Esteban Loaiza made the all-star team, and Mark Buehrle didn't, does that make Buehrle an "average" #3 pitcher? No, he's still their #1. The all-star game has turned into a popularity contest.

Crapshoot
07-31-2004, 06:22 PM
No, I think that both Choi and Encarnacion are average at best players. Choi projects to be about a .270, 25 HR, 75 RBI guy. Whoopee. Encarnacion is hitting 30 points below his career average, so you would think it will probably improve by the end of the season. Still, he's no better than average either.

LoDuca and Mota are arguably the best catcher (outside of maybe Piazza) and setup guy in the NL right now. Getting those two guys is worth Penny when you have crap at catcher and reliever before, not to mention a staff of Pavano, Beckett, Willis and Burnett already there.

If Penny was one of the "best in the majors", why wasn't he listed as any of the 15 starting pitchers in the All Star game? He's a nice pitcher that had a great start in April and May but has fallen back into his "good No. 3" talent in the past two months.

for what seems like the millonth time, this arguement of RBI and HR is pointless, and does not paint an accurate picture . Choi has an .880+ OPS (15 hr btw, despite being sat for Jeff "proven veteran" Conine), and is 25, and likely to improve- that is well above average. Ignoring this will not change it. Encarnacion is a career OPS of 750- he has an OPS of 700 so far this year, so he's not that far of his career mark. Using All- star balloting, which includes Joe Fan who thinks RBI's are a useful stat, or the managers who still think Derek Jeter is a great player, are only a further exacerbation of the problem of citing numbers and facts that are ridiculous subjective and/or irrelevant. Estrada, Barrett and Kendall have all been better than LoDuca, and none of them have a history of second half swoons. you cannot deny factual evidence again and again - at some point, your preconceived notions have to give way to actual relevant data.

Arles
07-31-2004, 06:30 PM
for what seems like the millonth time, this arguement of RBI and HR is pointless, and does not paint an accurate picture . Choi has an .880+ OPS (15 hr btw, despite being sat for Jeff "proven veteran" Conine), and is 25, and likely to improve. Ignoring this will not change it. Encarnacion is a career OPS of 750- he has an OPS of 700 so far this year, so he's not that far of his career mark. Using All- star balloting, which includes Joe Fan who thinks RBI's are a useful stat, or the managers who still think Derek Jeter is a great player, are only a further exacerbation of the problem of citing numbers and facts that are ridiculous subjective and/or irrelevant. Estrada, Barrett and Kendall have all been better than LoDuca, and none of them have a history of second half swoons. you cannot deny factual evidence again and again - at some point, your preconceived notions have to give way to actual relevant data.
Encarnacion will probably return closer to his career average of .266 by season's end. However, Choi is a better player than Encarnacion now and will be even better down the road. But, he's not going to do much more than Encarnacion THIS SEASON.

LoDuca and Mota give the Marlins a huge boost in their two weakest areas. Penny gives LA a big boost in their rotation, but Choi isn't that much of an upgrade over the Encarnacion/Roberts platoon he was replacing.

I think both LA and Florida are better teams than they were last Wednesday. But, I don't see how this trade was a bad one from a Florida perspective. Time shall tell though.

Vince
07-31-2004, 06:55 PM
I've seen his stats. Even if he stays at 5-6 innings per start for the rest of the season, I'd GLADLY take him as the #2 starter for the Giants. Penny could be an improvement at #2 SP for the majority of teams in the majors, I'd be willing to bet.

Like I said before...I can understand that having a pitcher only pitch into the 5th or 6th inning is not so great...but if he can do that at a 3.15 ERA, that's still a pretty damn good pitcher.

Danny
07-31-2004, 07:12 PM
Arlie, since when did you become a Fish fan anyway :p

Arles
07-31-2004, 07:17 PM
I've seen his stats. Even if he stays at 5-6 innings per start for the rest of the season, I'd GLADLY take him as the #2 starter for the Giants. Penny could be an improvement at #2 SP for the majority of teams in the majors, I'd be willing to bet.

Like I said before...I can understand that having a pitcher only pitch into the 5th or 6th inning is not so great...but if he can do that at a 3.15 ERA, that's still a pretty damn good pitcher.
And, you better have a good bullpen. Which, even without Mota, is still a strength in LA with Gagne, Dreifort and Sanchez. In fact, the Dodgers may be one of the better teams for Penny to go to for that exact reason.

Now the big concern is with the innings for the pen. Outside of Ishii, no one on this rotation has a complete game. You don't want a tired pen going into the playoffs, and guys are going to need to step up in middle relief without Mota.

Arles
07-31-2004, 07:20 PM
Arlie, since when did you become a Fish fan anyway :p
I just like playing Devil's Advocate with all these Dodger fans ;)

Seriously, though, I think both the Dodgers and Marlins improved with these deals. Yet, I saw everyone out here slamming the Marlins for giving up Penny for Lo Duca and Mota. And, I just don't see Penny as being a top 1 or 2-style pitcher. Many others do.

In the end, though, I don't know that any of it matters as neither the Marlins or the Dodgers will be able to beat my Redbirds ;)

Marmel
07-31-2004, 07:37 PM
From what I have read, Loaiza really depends on his cutter, which is just not cutting this year like it did last year. Hopefully, Mariano Rivera can work with him on that and get him in better shape for the playoffs. I liked Contreras a lot, but it just was not working out for him in New York. I think this was a good trade for the Yankees, but won't really be a difference maker, Loaiza will be in the pen in October.

lynchjm24
07-31-2004, 07:59 PM
I just like playing Devil's Advocate with all these Dodger fans ;)

Seriously, though, I think both the Dodgers and Marlins improved with these deals. Yet, I saw everyone out here slamming the Marlins for giving up Penny for Lo Duca and Mota. And, I just don't see Penny as being a top 1 or 2-style pitcher. Many others do.

In the end, though, I don't know that any of it matters as neither the Marlins or the Dodgers will be able to beat my Redbirds ;)

The guy you are arguing with is a Giants fan. The Dodger fans seem to agree with you...

Comey
07-31-2004, 08:25 PM
In the end, though, I don't know that any of it matters as neither the Marlins or the Dodgers will be able to beat my Redbirds ;)
...to the golf course, yeah. You're right.

pennywisesb
07-31-2004, 08:27 PM
...to the golf course, yeah. You're right.

:eek:

Arles
07-31-2004, 09:13 PM
...to the golf course, yeah. You're right.
If the Dodgers would have gotten Johnson, I would be worried. But those Redbird bats can handle Penny, Perez and Weaver.

Arles
07-31-2004, 09:17 PM
Man, the way the East Coast media is destroying the Dodgers, I almost want to switch my tune in this. While I think Florida made out well, I also think LA is a better team. Here's Jason Stark's take:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=1850117

Biggest Winners:

1. Marlins
It may have been viewed as some kind of fluke when the Marlins made all the right moves this time last summer and turned them into a World Series parade. But after their flurry of eye-popping moves this time around, it's now clearer than ever:

Larry Beinfest is one of the best general managers in baseball.

"All he traded was his fifth starter (Brad Penny), a platoon guy (Hee Seop Choi), a bench player (Abraham Nunez) and two minor leaguers (Bill Murphy and Travis Chick)," said one NL front-office man. "And he got the best setup man in the league (Guillermo Mota), one of the best catchers in the league (Paul Lo Duca), a decent fifth starter (Ismael Valdez), a starting right fielder (Juan Encarnacion) and a useful arm (Rudy Seanez). And he got the Dodgers to pay them to take their best player (Lo Duca). How 'bout that?"

"I didn't know Larry too well when he got that job," said another NL executive. "But that guy does some tremendous things. He's a very creative guy."

The Marlins didn't do the standard we'll-trade-you-some-prospects-for-a-rent-a-player kind of deals. And in the end, that's why they succeeded while others grumbled about the state of the market. They thought outside the box, traded players they didn't have to trade and came away filling every hole they had. Nobody did it better.

Biggest Loser:

1. Dodgers

The most-asked question in baseball, after the transaction wire had finally settled down Saturday night, was: "What did the Dodgers do?"

It's hard to question the intentions of GM Paul DePodesta. He felt he had a team capable of getting to the playoffs as constituted -- but wasn't sure it was capable of beating anybody in the playoffs without another impact arm and impact bat.

But when his prospective trades for Randy Johnson and Charles Johnson crumbled like the Roman Empire, all of a sudden the master plan didn't look quite as masterful.

"To me," said one NL executive, "the only way the Dodgers could do that deal with Florida is if they were assured of two things: 1) They were going to get Charles Johnson to come there. And 2) they were going to get Randy Johnson to come there. Otherwise, there's no reason to do that deal."

But the Dodgers did it -- and then made three more deals Saturday. In the end, they did add an impact bat, in Steve Finley. And Brad Penny was certainly an October dominator in the final week of last October. But he's no Big Unit.

So was the cost really worth it? There's no doubt the Dodgers' Most Valuable Part all year has been their bullpen. And they subtracted the best setup man in baseball (Mota) and their best situational left-hander (Tom Martin) from it, without replacing them in other deals.

But maybe the biggest loss was Lo Duca -- an All-Star, a leader and a face of the franchise.

"I believe in intangibles," said one NL front-office man. "And I believe Lo Duca is that kind of player. That team fed off his energy. I just wonder if they outsmarted themselves by trading him."

If Finley gets hot, and Penny turns into Curt Schilling West, and the Dodgers win the World Series, it will all have been worth it. But try real hard to think of a first-place team that messed with the fabric and chemistry that got it there at the deadline. We can't. So what the Dodgers did represents a monumental, and dangerous, gamble.

Crapshoot
07-31-2004, 09:17 PM
Arles, the problem is that I think fundementally, your characterizations of Penny were off-base, and I proved those to you- same thing with Choi. If you hold the mistaken belief that they are average players, the deals looks better, as opposed to if you face that they are pretty damn good. At this point, My primary hope is that you get past the usage of RBI and batting average as value determining statistics in your perceptions- they arent really useful, and using them makes for weak arguements.

Arles
07-31-2004, 09:31 PM
Arles, the problem is that I think fundementally, your characterizations of Penny were off-base, and I proved those to you- same thing with Choi. If you hold the mistaken belief that they are average players, the deals looks better, as opposed to if you face that they are pretty damn good. At this point, My primary hope is that you get past the usage of RBI and batting average as value determining statistics in your perceptions- they arent really useful, and using them makes for weak arguements.
Looks like I'm not the only one:

"All he traded was his fifth starter (Brad Penny), a platoon guy (Hee Seop Choi), a bench player (Abraham Nunez) and two minor leaguers (Bill Murphy and Travis Chick)," said one NL front-office man.

If you really think Choi is a 40-HR guy, then we will have to agree to disagree. He couldn't even beat out Eric Karros on the Cubs last season and even if you give him 500 ABs for the season, he only projects to get 27 HRs and 70 RBI. Plus, he would have 140 Ks. 140 Ks are OK if you are a 35-40 HR guy with the ability to knock in 120, but not for a 27 HR and 70 RBI guy.

His average with runners in scoring position is awful, he strikes out a ton and doesn't even have 30 HR power. What on earth makes you think this guy is a legit run producer is beyond me.

Penny's a nice pitcher but he hasn't broken the 5th inning in half his starts over the past two months. Not exactly the type of guy I want going in the playoffs as a top 2 starter.

JonInMiddleGA
07-31-2004, 09:32 PM
"I believe in intangibles," said one NL front-office man. "And I believe Lo Duca is that kind of player. That team fed off his energy. I just wonder if they outsmarted themselves by trading him."

There's the biggest hang-up I have with the whole trade, right there in a nutshell.

The_herd
07-31-2004, 09:41 PM
Penny has posted an ERA below 4 only once in his career. He's also pitched 200 innings once. Penny can be a good 3 starter on a playoff team, but if you are relying on him to be your 2 I think you'll be disappointed. I think what he did earlier in the year is being looked at way too favorably.

Choi has nice average, OBP, and a pretty decent OPS, but he's hit 6 homers since April. Not even ok for a 1B. He also can't hit lefties to save his life. Unless he makes some changes at the plate it doesn't look like he'll ever be more than a platoon player at 1B.

With a healthy Burnett, the Marlins rotation is every bit as good as it was last year, if not better. Even with the loss of Penny. The Marlins gave up part of their strength in order to fill a desperate need at catcher, add depth to a thin bullpen, and get another outfielder.

I don't think either team did bad here, but the Marlins did a good job of filling needs. Any GM in the Marlins shoes pulls off that trade.

Comey
07-31-2004, 09:46 PM
If the Dodgers would have gotten Johnson, I would be worried. But those Redbird bats can handle Penny, Perez and Weaver.
I was just busting on you. ;)

kcchief19
07-31-2004, 11:06 PM
I'm more amused by the continuing travels of journeyman thirdbasemen Jose Bautista. Baltimore drafted him in the Rule V draft in the offseason from Pittsburgh, then put him on waivers June 3. He was claimed by the Devil Rays, who traded him to the Royals June 28. The Royals traded him to the Mets on Friday, who then traded him to -- you guessed it -- the Pirates, the team who lost him in the Rule V draft.

That is five transactions and five different teams in less than a year. Yowza.

cschex
07-31-2004, 11:41 PM
If you really think Choi is a 40-HR guy, then we will have to agree to disagree. He couldn't even beat out Eric Karros on the Cubs last season and even if you give him 500 ABs for the season, he only projects to get 27 HRs and 70 RBI. Plus, he would have 140 Ks. 140 Ks are OK if you are a 35-40 HR guy with the ability to knock in 120, but not for a 27 HR and 70 RBI guy.

His average with runners in scoring position is awful, he strikes out a ton and doesn't even have 30 HR power. What on earth makes you think this guy is a legit run producer is beyond me.

He's 25 years old and hitting damn well in only his second full major league season. Aadik's point (and mine) is that is you put him in the lineup every day and have people get on in front of him, the RBI's will come. They are an interdependent statistic. Not to mention that I'd take 27 HR and 80+ (since those are the stats you insist on using) from my 25 yr-old 1B who's making the minimum any day of the week. That's above average production and he's getting better.

Cuckoo
07-31-2004, 11:43 PM
Choi's a good player that never got his chance in Chicago. Dusty Baker prefers veterans, and Eric Karros had some nice hot streaks for the Cubs last year, hence Choi's depleted playing time. In addition, he had that big injury, and it took him a while to get his swing back after that. I think he'll end up being a very good hitting 1B who could definitely hit 40 homeruns.

Danny
08-01-2004, 03:27 AM
They probably interview the executives for the Pirates and Brewers :)

Vince
08-01-2004, 04:05 AM
I just like playing Devil's Advocate with all these Dodger fans ;)
Ack! I can't believe I've been characterized as a Dodger fan. To be honest, I just really like Penny. Always have...don't know why, really. And I really want to get a hold of some of the crack that guy's been smoking who thinks that Penny is a #5 starter. #5 starters don't have the #11 ERA in all of baseball.

Arles
08-01-2004, 12:58 PM
Just another question on Penny, isn't he a FA at season's end?

I read in the Phoenix papers that the fact he might be able to leave after the season was one of the reasons Arizona didn't do a Johnson for Penny + prospects deal.

If that's the case, then LA may only be renting Penny for the season.

Danny
08-01-2004, 01:30 PM
Penny won't be a free agent after the season. Might be arbitration elgible though.

mauchow
08-01-2004, 04:43 PM
Arles, I think you need to fix the link to your 1.41 patch, since you didn't reply over at .400 :)

Arles
08-01-2004, 06:17 PM
Penny won't be a free agent after the season. Might be arbitration elgible though.
He was eligible for arbitration after 2002 and 2003 (Fla signed him to a one year deal before each hearing) and is finishing his fifth qualified season (2000-2004). I think that means he is an FA at season's end. But, I'm not sure on this.

INDalltheway
08-01-2004, 06:37 PM
How bout the Cubbies? Don't they scare you now, Arles. The pennant is pretty much out of reach, but the Wild Card is wide open...

cschex
08-01-2004, 11:02 PM
He was eligible for arbitration after 2002 and 2003 (Fla signed him to a one year deal before each hearing) and is finishing his fifth qualified season (2000-2004). I think that means he is an FA at season's end. But, I'm not sure on this.

I'm almost certain he has one year of arbitration left. Pavano will be an FA and Burnett is arb-eligible as well.

Chief Rum
08-01-2004, 11:09 PM
You get three years of arbitration, six years total major league service, before you get free agency. I'm pretty sure Penny has another year to go before he reaches free agency.

CR

Arles
08-01-2004, 11:48 PM
You get three years of arbitration, six years total major league service, before you get free agency. I'm pretty sure Penny has another year to go before he reaches free agency.

CR
OK, Thanks. Makes sense as this is his 5th season of service.

Arles
08-01-2004, 11:51 PM
How bout the Cubbies? Don't they scare you now, Arles. The pennant is pretty much out of reach, but the Wild Card is wide open...
If the Cubs get that pitching staff in order, they could be tough to beat in the playoffs. Still, The Cards' staff has been better as a whole for the season, their lineup is better and their relievers are significantly better. So, I think St. Louis isn't all that worried about Chicago.

If LA can get a little more consistency in their starters and Green to heat up (to go with Finley and Beltre), they look to be more of a threat. Although, I think the Dodgers are going to miss Mota more than they think.

sterlingice
08-02-2004, 12:50 AM
What? No giant post about Rudy Seanez for Abraham Nunez or Jose Bautista for Justin Huber? Oh, c'mon! ;)

SI

Danny
08-03-2004, 11:47 PM
Nice production the Dodgers got out of a #3 guy tonight :). Penny is now 8th in the Majors in ERA.

MrBug708
08-03-2004, 11:48 PM
Yup Yup. 8 Innings, 2 hits given up

Arles
08-03-2004, 11:57 PM
Penny did look good tonight. Although, Gagne looks like he is wearing down and bit and Dreifort has looked shaky at best since Mota left.

Another interesting point in an AP story I found today (I'll see if I can find the link) is that Millwood figured to get a $10 mil arbitration award with numbers similar to what Penny has done to this point a while back. If Penny finishes 14-15 wins and a 2.97 ERA, he could very well get $7 to $9 mil in salary arbitration.

Just something to keep in mind. All that said, I was impressed by Penny tonight and think he will be a nice plus for the Dodgers down the stretch.

MrBug708
08-04-2004, 02:40 AM
Shakey since Mota left? Was it today? Where he didn't pitch? YEsterday when they were off? SUnday when he got a save? He had a bad outing on Saturday I believe, when he blew the game, but I'd hardly be worried about that one game.

Chief Rum
08-04-2004, 03:16 AM
Shakey since Mota left? Was it today? Where he didn't pitch? YEsterday when they were off? SUnday when he got a save? He had a bad outing on Saturday I believe, when he blew the game, but I'd hardly be worried about that one game.

Admittedly it's a very small sample size, but you can't say he's wrong. 2 IP, 9 ERA, 4 hits allowed, two walks, a loss and a save. Not exactly shutdown stuff.

CR

SackAttack
08-04-2004, 03:30 AM
You're off base there, chief. He got a win on Sunday, since he was the pitcher of record before Dreifort's save.

He hasn't 'lost' a game this year, although he's blown one save. I chalk today's performance up to pitching three innings on Sunday. The last time he did that, he was a starter.

MrBug708
08-04-2004, 05:26 AM
I was talking about Arles comment at DD, not Gagne....

SackAttack
08-04-2004, 03:38 PM
Oops.

Chief Rum
08-04-2004, 03:48 PM
Oops.

And, obviously, I was talking about DD, too, but I think you figured that out. ;)

CR

Ksyrup
08-04-2004, 03:51 PM
FWIW:

Larry Walker still believes he could be traded to an American League team despite the passing of the interleague deadline this past Saturday.

We have no official word on this, but it seems likely that Walker has cleared waivers. If that is the case, the Yankees or any other AL team could deal for him. Stay tuned.

SackAttack
08-04-2004, 04:29 PM
And, obviously, I was talking about DD, too, but I think you figured that out. ;)

CR

I, uh...

<Vizzini>What in the world can THAT be?!</Vizzini>

SackAttack
08-04-2004, 04:30 PM
Dangit, my little (Vizzini) (/Vizzini) didn't show up with the <> brackets.

Does this board really thing that's HTML?

Sharpieman
08-04-2004, 08:35 PM
Well, the Giants didn't make a meaningful trade. There goes our season. Dustin Hermanson is the closer now. God help us.

MrBug708
08-04-2004, 08:55 PM
Well, the Giants didn't make a meaningful trade. There goes our season. Dustin Hermanson is the closer now. God help us.

God hates Barry Bonds, just as he should

clintl
08-04-2004, 09:17 PM
I don't know. Maybe Noah Lowry is the big acquisition.

Vince
08-04-2004, 09:29 PM
Well, the Giants didn't make a meaningful trade. There goes our season. Dustin Hermanson is the closer now. God help us.
In case you hadn't noticed, we were in first for quite a while, and haven't been doing so bad since the first few weeks.

pennywisesb
08-04-2004, 10:06 PM
In case you hadn't noticed, we were in first for quite a while, and haven't been doing so bad since the first few weeks.
Vince, I think its time to stop being an optimist and just except that even with Bonds, the Giants suck. :eek:

MrBug708
08-04-2004, 10:13 PM
In case you hadn't noticed, we were in first for quite a while, and haven't been doing so bad since the first few weeks.

Just remember that it was the Giants fans calling the Dodgers done in June, not the other way around....

Ksyrup
08-06-2004, 09:19 AM
This makes the Marlins' decision to trade Choi a little more understandable:


Miguel Cabrera's shaky outfield defense has the Marlins saying his eventual position will be first base.

Cabrera has already been compared to Albert Pujols, now he may be taking a similar path around the diamond from third base to outfield to first base. The coaching staff will begin working extensively with Cabrera at first base today, and ''probably in the long run'' that will be his position, manager Jack McKeon said. Aug. 6 - 9:21 am et

JonInMiddleGA
08-08-2004, 07:09 PM
http://sports.myway.com//news/08082004/v9424.html
LOS ANGELES (AP) - Brett Myers pitched two-hit ball for eight shutout innings and struck out a season-high nine, leading the Philadelphia Phillies over the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-1 Sunday.

Dodgers starter Brad Penny jumped off the mound in pain in the first inning and left with a strained right biceps. It was just his second outing for Los Angeles since he was acquired in a trade with Florida.
...
Penny, who allowed just two infield hits in eight scoreless innings last Tuesday to beat Pittsburgh in his Dodgers debut, got hurt on his 14th pitch of the game.

Assistant trainer Matt Wilson and manager Jim Tracy came out to check on Penny, who threw one warmup pitch and jumped off the mound writhing in pain before Wilson led him to the clubhouse. Penny is scheduled for an MRI on Monday.

The_herd
08-08-2004, 07:11 PM
As I said in the trade thread, he's only pitched 200 innings once.

MrBug708
08-08-2004, 07:17 PM
HE felt a pain in his tricep

Bad-example
08-08-2004, 07:51 PM
Just remember that it was the Giants fans calling the Dodgers done in June, not the other way around....

Dodger fans were calling the Giants done in April. :rolleyes:

Ksyrup
08-27-2004, 07:58 AM
Interesting comment from Bochy...



Padres' manager Bruce Bochy said he expects either the Dodgers or Giants to trade for Arizona ace Randy Johnson before Sept. 1.

On Wednesday, Padres' GM Kevin Towers said there's "zero chance" of the Padres going after the Big Unit, citing the Randy Myers waiver-wire debaucle of six years ago. The bigger news here, obviously, is the belief that Johnson will be on the move. This is the first substantial rumor regarding the Unit since the Dodgers failed to acquire him at the non-waiver deadline. Aug. 27 - 7:45 am et

k0ruptr
08-27-2004, 01:20 PM
good. maybe it will help my fantasy team down the stretch, ive seen to many fuckin 2-1 losses from johnson this year