Baseball Offseason 2004-5 Thread [Archive] - Front Office Football Central

sterlingice

11-10-2004, 02:17 AM

Bucc? What's the word down in San Diego about the little May/Long swap?

Here, it's basically "we're glad to be rid of that clubhouse cancer in Darrell even if we had to take on Long's awful contract because we were looking for an OF and with the cash we get back, it's a wash". Buckvich doesn't seem to have that high of a ceiling- hard thrower, can't harness it, average pitches. I'm happy to get Tank back who could benefit from a change in scenery but no one else seems to care. He's expected to work long relief and compete for the 5th spot in the rotation.

I'm assuming there it sounds something like "man, we're glad to get rid of Long and his contract and we got a 200 IP guy back". I'm guessing with a change of scenery, particularly changing leagues and being a puss armed lefty, he'll throw his 200 IP, give up less homers in a more pitcher friendly park, have a 4.50 ERA and you'll be happy to have gotten something for Long. Buckvich might find a spot in your pen as a 6th or 7th inning fireballer.

If May isn't too disgruntled (moving teams, probably not), you'll get a decent 5th starter while we're happy to be rid of him and maybe, just maybe we'll have gotten something in return.

SI

oykib

11-10-2004, 06:59 AM

Isn't Tankersley a part of that deal?

He was supposed to be the next big thing not that long ago.

FBPro

11-10-2004, 07:14 AM

Yankees sign whoever they want..........who cares. Really sad though, since baseball used to be interesting for me.

oykib

11-10-2004, 07:18 AM

Yankees sign whoever they want..........who cares. Really sad though, since baseball used to be interesting for me.

What the hell does that have to do woth the price of tea in China?

fantastic flying froggies

11-10-2004, 07:22 AM

What the hell does that have to do woth the price of tea in China?
What is the price of tea in China BTW? Do you have any insider's info, you being in Japan and all??? ;)

FBPro

11-10-2004, 07:29 AM

What the hell does that have to do woth the price of tea in China?

It DOES!!! ?

hukarez

11-10-2004, 09:35 AM

Isn't Tankersley a part of that deal?

He was supposed to be the next big thing not that long ago.
Yep, he was part of the deal. I don't know much of anything in regards to the guys we got from KC, to be honest.

Fonzie

11-10-2004, 09:42 AM

Cubs fans, brace for impact.

Steve Stone's replacement on WGN has been announced - Bob "Barfy" Brenly.

Serious downgrade, IMO. Stone was one of the best in the business, and it was a mistake for the Cubs to bash him into resigning.

As for Brenly - meh.

Radii

11-10-2004, 09:55 AM

Serious downgrade, IMO. Stone was one of the best in the business, and it was a mistake for the Cubs to bash him into resigning.

Absolutely terrible. I don't dislike Brenly really but Steve Stone is the man. It'll be more weird watching a Cubs game without Stone than it was watching the Cubs without Harry.

sterlingice

11-10-2004, 03:16 PM

Well, what was the deal a couple of years back when Stone wasn't doing games? Maybe 3-4 years ago, I remember they had someone else on there for a while, like he had retired for a season or two.

SI

Suicane75

11-10-2004, 03:18 PM

Bring Steve Stone to Philly and ship Chris Wheeler out to timbuck 2.

Swaggs

11-10-2004, 03:25 PM

I don't know what the news out of Anaheim looks like, but it seems like the Pirates are interested in acquiring Jose Guillen, if he becomes available. Pirates' manager Lloyd McClendon was the hitting coach when Guillen came up with the Bucs and they apparently have a pretty good relationship.

Pirates also appear to be close to resignging Jose Mesa to another one-year deal. If Mesa pitches pretty well, like he did last season, the Pirates should have a pretty good setup team in place with Gonzalez-Torres-Mesa.

In non-Pirates related news, I read that the Dodgers and Mets are discussing a Piazza for Green deal. Might be interesting to see Piazza back in Dodger Blue, but he probably should be looking for a half catching/half DHing job at this point.

Cuckoo

11-10-2004, 03:28 PM

Well, what was the deal a couple of years back when Stone wasn't doing games? Maybe 3-4 years ago, I remember they had someone else on there for a while, like he had retired for a season or two.

SI

Stone had health issues and took two years away. He was replaced with Joe Carter for the majority of games. It was horrible.

I think Brenly's a decent guy, but I agree with others that he won't be as good as Steve Stone.

sterlingice

11-10-2004, 03:28 PM

Chief Rum

11-10-2004, 03:28 PM

Pirates have been prominently mentioned as a possible destination for Guillen. Also mentioned: Mets, Expos, Royals and perhaps the Bluejays.

CR

Ksyrup

11-10-2004, 03:29 PM

Absolutely terrible. I don't dislike Brenly really but Steve Stone is the man. It'll be more weird watching a Cubs game without Stone than it was watching the Cubs without Harry.
Not that many people care, but Chip Caray also left, so it will be an entirely new crew.

sterlingice

11-10-2004, 03:29 PM

Pirates have been prominently mentioned as a possible destination for Guillen. Also mentioned: Mets, Expos, Royals and perhaps the Bluejays.

CR
Yeah, he's been on the Royals radar ever since that little blowup at the end of the season gave him his ticket out of town.

SI

Desnudo

11-10-2004, 03:33 PM

Schilling ankle pictures. The surgery today was successful:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=1919387

rkmsuf

11-10-2004, 03:34 PM

are the pictures really necessary? we get it dude...you are tough.

When is it ever reported that surgery wasn't successful?

Desnudo

11-10-2004, 03:43 PM

are the pictures really necessary? we get it dude...you are tough.

When is it ever reported that surgery wasn't successful?

When the guy dies.

dawgfan

11-10-2004, 06:37 PM

Despite Bill Bavasi's emphatic denials, there are all kinds of rumors that Richie Sexson is all but signed by the M's.

I'm not sure I'm terribly excited by this, but I guess that depends on how much and for how long, and how it will affect any other signings this offseason. Hopefully Sexson is structurally sound after missing most of this season. From the numbers, he looks like a 1B version of Jay Buhner - moderate average, 40+ bombs, lots of strikeouts, enough walks to make the OBP respectable.

I don't recall hearing any great reviews on his fielding, but I haven't heard he's awful either. I guess I'll check the Stats, Inc review on him at ESPN.com...

EDIT - I checked his reviews, and he sounds like a pretty respectable fielder at 1B. Coming on the heels of John Olerud and David Segui, he'll have a lot to live up to in that area.

HornedFrog Purple

11-10-2004, 08:33 PM

Oh, and HFP, apparently Baird has been wanting to get Kevin Mench for months now and is suposedly trying really hard to get him before the winter meetings are over. Any truth at all to these rumors and is Texas even trying to get rid of Mench?

SI

They have tried to trade him before. He supposedly isn't a Buck Showalter player for some stupid reason. I am sure the braintrust of Hart and Hicks will trade him for the worst pitcher in the Royals system, so the Royals will do great.

The only thing out of Rangers camp is they have no starting pitching and they aren't going to do much of anything in the FA market. Shocker.

I heard there has been talk of trading Soriano. I don't know to whom though.

sterlingice

11-10-2004, 08:35 PM

They have tried to trade him before. He supposedly isn't a Buck Showalter player for some stupid reason. I am sure the braintrust of Hart and Hicks will trade him for the worst pitcher in the Royals system, so the Royals will do great.
God knows we have a plethora of bad ones. We'll give you 2 or 3. How about Colt Griffin, 1st high schooler to ever throw 100. Hasn't gotten out of AA and can't throw strikes to save his life. He's perfect for you.

SI

Ksyrup

11-15-2004, 07:43 AM

Interesting bit from Jayson Stark's latest column:

Don't be so sure the Yankees will be willing to give Beltran whatever he wants -- or that Boss Steinbrenner is so desperate to win now that he'll be throwing money around like confetti.

One baseball man says the Yankees' payroll will be watched very carefully by MLB this winter -- because 1) Bud Selig's debt rules will, for the first time, be strictly enforced and 2) MLB continues to make noises that the Yankees are underestimating the true value of the YES network.

So if the Yankees are going to have a payroll north of $200 million -- plus pay another $100 million in luxury-tax and revenue-sharing bills -- they need to prove to the commish that they have more than $300 million in revenue to pay for it all.

But they're reporting to MLB that they make "only" $50 million a year from their own personal cable venture. The skeptics at MLB, on the other hand, have been quietly investigating to see if they're actually taking in a lot more.

So if they run up $300 million in bills next year while they're only claiming, say, $250 million in revenues, then the debt-rule police will start blowing their whistles.

Which could mean, believe it or not, that even the Yankees have their limits. Sheez, what's the world coming to?

DeToxRox

11-15-2004, 12:10 PM

Regarding Soriano.

I have heard Javier Vasquez for Soriano.

Also.. The Tigers, according to ESPN.com, are the ones who will end up with Matt Clement. I think that is a solid pick up for the Tigers, because we need another right hander.

If we do get Clement, I think Maroth is probably gone. I doubt he'll move to the pen, so he'll wind up getting traded. He's a solid lefty who can give good innings, so he has some value. Question is, where will he wind up?

Anyone have any ideas?

ISiddiqui

11-15-2004, 12:20 PM

I have heard Javier Vasquez for Soriano.

Why would Texas do that? Vasquez makes a ton of money as well, thanks to the deal Steinny has given him. I'd think they'd want cheaper pitchers for Soriano.

JonInMiddleGA

11-15-2004, 12:45 PM

Latest rumor in Atlanta seems to be ??? for Kevin Brown. Some say that ??? is Andruw Jones, but that seems a little unlikely to me.

Other tidbit that seems to be getting some play (courtesy of ESPN I suspect) is Armando Benitez to the Braves ... which would seem to imply Smoltz is going to get a shot at the rotation. Also Millwood back to Atlanta, presumably as a replacement for Ortiz?

Eh, I just think they ought to re-sign J.D. Drew & then sort out everything else.

Ksyrup

11-15-2004, 01:05 PM

Moving Smoltz into the rotation has definitely been discussed. Problem is, for 2005, he has incentives that would earn him $15M if he makes 30 starts (base salary plus $100K a start). So, I've read that they might be willing to guarantee him another year (he'll be a free agent after 2005) in exchange for dropping the incentives. Either way, he intends to be a starter in 2006 with the Braves or someone else.

Andruw Jones is getting moved if the Braves can find someone to take him. If they don't trade him, they can't afford to make a run at Drew or do much else. I read somewhere that right now, they have a little over $4M to work with.

albionmoonlight

11-15-2004, 01:10 PM

One baseball man says the Yankees' payroll will be watched very carefully by MLB this winter -- because 1) Bud Selig's debt rules will, for the first time, be strictly enforced and 2) MLB continues to make noises that the Yankees are underestimating the true value of the YES network.

So if they run up $300 million in bills next year while they're only claiming, say, $250 million in revenues, then the debt-rule police will start blowing their whistles.
What are debt rules?

Blackadar

11-15-2004, 01:14 PM

MrBug708

11-15-2004, 01:15 PM

One rumor has the Angels and Mets swapping Guillen for Piazza, amoung other names. Piazza might bring over a few more Dodger fans and gets rid of Guillen.

JonInMiddleGA

11-15-2004, 01:52 PM

Anybody that wants Andruw can have him AFAIC, give us some reliable pitching in return.

And as much as I like Smoltz as a closer (which is a lot) the starter experiment (whether he's hell-bent & determined to do it or not) is a disaster waiting to happen. Far better it happen on somebody's else's dime than Atlanta's. And I'll wonder whatever happened to the days when coaches/managers told players their roles instead of the other way around?

Desnudo

11-15-2004, 03:44 PM

Why would Texas do that? Vasquez makes a ton of money as well, thanks to the deal Steinny has given him. I'd think they'd want cheaper pitchers for Soriano.

If they pull that off, Texas can officially be designated as the dumping ground for unwanted Yankees players.

stevew

11-16-2004, 07:30 PM

ExpoSeNationals already appear to be overpaying free agents.

Associated Press

WASHINGTON -- The Expos made their first big splash since announcing their move to Washington, agreeing Tuesday to a $6.2 million, two-year contract with third baseman Vinny Castilla and a $16.8 million, four-year deal with shortstop Cristian Guzman.

Castilla, 37, hit .271 with 35 homers and an NL-leading 131 RBIs last season for Colorado, the best season for the two-time All-Star since he was with the Rockies in 1990s. Castilla also has played for Atlanta, Houston and Tampa Bay, and has 303 career home runs.

Guzman, a 26-year-old switch-hitter, batted .274 last season with eight homers, 46 RBIs and 10 steals, and he led AL shortstops with a .983 fielding percentage.

"The nice things about this is that two big holes on the left side of the infield are filled," manager Frank Robinson said. "It was nice to go out and fill those holes in a short period of time with quality players."

The signings were the first major moves by Jim Bowden, hired as general manager on Nov. 2 to replace Omar Minaya, who became GM of the New York Mets. Bowden said he hasn't been told how much money he can spend by the commissioner' office, which is operating the team until it is sold.
"We do not have a budget, but we're trying to send this franchise in the right direction," Bowden said. "We couldn't wait to make these moves. We wanted to make sure we had a shortstop with his prime years ahead of him. ... If you have to cut in other areas, you cut in other areas. But we feel those two players will fit into our budget."

Castilla will receive $3 million in 2005 and $3.2 million in 2006. His signing signals that the Expos have given up on keeping their sole marquee free agent, third baseman Tony Batista, who hit 32 home runs with 110 RBIs last season.

"They made an offer to us that was not in our ballpark in length or in dollars," Bowden said.

Bowden got a similar response when pursuing Corey Koskie, Guzman's teammate with the Twins, so he worked the deal with Castilla, who declined a $2.1 million mutual option with Colorado.

Castilla's signing also met with approval from Robinson, who wanted some veteran clubhouse leadership for a young roster.

"That's very important for me," Robinson said. "You have to have a presence in the clubhouse. It just can't be management and the coaches."

The Twins declined a $5.25 million option on Guzman's contract for 2005, and he will receive $4.2 million in each of the next four seasons. He had been plagued by injuries since becoming an All-Star in 2001, but he rebounded this year with his most consistent season.

Baseball owners announced the Expos' move on Sept. 29 and are set to approve the relocation Thursday. The deal is subject to the District of Columbia government enacting funding by Dec. 31 for a new ballpark.

The Expos are expected to be renamed by the commissioner's office before the end of the year. The franchise is owned by the other 29 teams, although baseball recently began the process of selling the team by soliciting feelers from potential buyers.

Seems to be a bit extreme for Guzman and his sub . 700 ops, even if he does have a good glove.

Desnudo

11-16-2004, 07:32 PM

Pedro met with The Boss today.

sterlingice

11-16-2004, 07:35 PM

I bet Guzman's agent was positively giddy when he saw the offer.

SI

DeToxRox

11-16-2004, 07:39 PM

If Washington plays with outfield walls that go about 300 -345 - 290 then Castilla is a fine pick up.

Bomber

11-16-2004, 07:46 PM

DeToxRox

11-16-2004, 07:58 PM

Tigers are possibly signing Jeff Kent and Troy Percivial. I dunno if I like the Kent move. Maybe if he goes back to third, or Guillen goes to third and Infante to short.

I just hope they keep Omar in the middle of the infield.

Perci would be great in our pen.

Now lets get those two and Clement or Pavano.

stevew

11-16-2004, 08:14 PM

I'd like to see the Yankees re-sign Lieber, sign Pavano, sign Wells, trade Vasquez for Johnson straight up, trade Brown and Lofton for Jones, and sign Polanco.

Starting Lineup:
R. Johnson
M. Mussina
J. Lieber
C. Pavano
D. Wells

Starting Lineup:

1B - J. Giambi
2B - P. Polanco
SS - D. Jeter
3B - A. Rodriguez
C - J. Posada
RF - G. Sheffield
CF - A. Jones
LF - H. Matsui
DH - B. Williams

I doubt the DBacks do a straight Jacquez for Johnson trade. I would guess something like Lieberathal and Tim Worrell from Philly for Kevin Brown and Lofton. Then Posada and change for Johnson. Vasquez for Soriano. Resign Leiber and Duque Sign Beltran and Pedro.

SackAttack

11-16-2004, 09:02 PM

What are debt rules?

Not sure what they are specifically, but I think it has to do with your total debt can't exceed 40% of your overall liquidity. Not overall franchise value, but liquid assets. Meaning if the Yanks have, say, $200m in liquid assets, they can't have more than $80m in outstanding liabilities.

Or something like that. The 60/40 rule is vaguely familiar, because it was discussed during McCourt's attempt to buy the Dodgers, but I'm not sure what the specifics of it are.

Scholes

11-17-2004, 12:03 AM

Guzman can barely throw to first base... most of them hit the ground about 4 feet before.

He got injured a few years ago and was never the same...

JonInMiddleGA

11-22-2004, 05:55 AM

from http://www.radioandrecords.com/NewsRoom/2004_11_22/Streettalk.asp

* Longtime New York Yankees announcer and Sportscenter anchor Charley Steiner joins the Los Angeles Dodgers broadcast team next season.

Blackadar

11-22-2004, 06:00 AM

Blackadar

11-23-2004, 08:33 AM

MikeVic

11-23-2004, 08:55 AM

I saw on some channel that the Jays are interested in Matt Clement, and Clement's agent said the feeling is mutual.

Router Help

11-23-2004, 10:13 AM

Gabe Kapler signs with a team in Japan: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1929514

Kind of an odd move. He said he went because of guaranteed playing time. I know Boston's outfield was tough to break into, but surely there is some team in the majors that could use him.

Ksyrup

11-23-2004, 11:14 AM

Hmmm...guess I killed this thread.

I was looking at the FA list today. The best value among starting pitchers must be Russ Ortiz. He's not considered much better than a #2 or #3 rotation guy, yet he's won 67 games over the last 4 years and is only 30 with a career ERA of 4.00.
Ortiz is considered, rightly, a 3rd-tier guy. Last I heard, TB was the only team to express a strong interest in him. He'd probably do well to hold out until some of the better guys get signed, and perhaps a team that lost out on a Clement or Lowe will make a play for him. He will be a good value, but I'm not really sure what he's worth to a mediocre/bad team. He only wins because he plays for winners.

Cuckoo

12-07-2004, 07:06 PM

Cubs resign Nomar (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1940780) to one year deal.

Crapshoot

12-07-2004, 07:25 PM

Hmmm...guess I killed this thread.

I was looking at the FA list today. The best value among starting pitchers must be Russ Ortiz. He's not considered much better than a #2 or #3 rotation guy, yet he's won 67 games over the last 4 years and is only 30 with a career ERA of 4.00.

Most overrated- 5 years in SF, and now a FA. barely league average, and looking for $10 million+ per year. W-L is pointless in measuring - his ERA+ over the last 4 years is 122, 105, 109, and 104 - league average (just above) since leaving SF. Will get killed in a Hitters park - especially a HR one. One of my favorite pitchers, but oh so overrated.

Edit: K beat to me it. Though I've heard him associated with a lot of teams- apparently, they all buy into this "winner" junk. Call him a Jack Morris clone, with similar hype (couldnt win goddamn game 6 though).

Suicane75

12-07-2004, 07:31 PM

I doubt the DBacks do a straight Jacquez for Johnson trade. I would guess something like Lieberathal and Tim Worrell from Philly for Kevin Brown and Lofton. Then Posada and change for Johnson. Vasquez for Soriano. Resign Leiber and Duque Sign Beltran and Pedro.

Why oh why do you think the Phillies would trade their setup guy and clubhouse leader for an inury waiting to happen and a clubhouse cancer? That deal would never EVER happen.

Ksyrup

12-07-2004, 08:39 PM

Lofton was already traded to the Phillies, along with cash for Felix Rodriguez.

Suicane75

12-07-2004, 08:53 PM

Lofton was already traded to the Phillies, along with cash for Felix Rodriguez.

I'm up to date on things, no? :D

Buccaneer

12-07-2004, 09:04 PM

SI, sorry, I didn't see this earlier.

Basically the buzz on the Long/May trade was positive among Pads fans. Long was deadweight with a way overpaid contract. May will eat up innings and that's good for a 5th starter. Even though May is a flyball pitcher, Petco will help him that respect.

Here's a postive spin:

"May averaged 6 innings a start last season. Our 5th starter last season would never pitch that far into a game except for a few good home starts from Valdes.

I think with May pitching for a much better team and at Petco, his numbers will be more in line with his 2003 season. I predict a .500 record and 200 innings, not much more you can ask from a 5th starter and much more than the Padres had last season. We could have made the playoffs with a solid 5th starter.

I'm not a Tank or Long fan, I don't think Tank has it and we know KT has felt that way for awhile now. Long is a reserve outfielder, low obp, no power, average LF and terrible CF, he won't even start in KC unless they have injuries.

We get a 5th starter, clear up some space in the logjammed OF and swap pitching projects. Good trade by KT IMO. Hopefully Balsley can help Bukvich and this trade look like a steal."

And from a Royals fan:

"Well, I think you guys won this one. May will probably have a fantastic year, especially at the back end of your rotation. Kauffman is not really a hitter's ballpark anymore, though, since the fences moved back so not sure how much Petco will affect him. I think he is just better than he showed last year. The R's just have enough pitching questions without holding onto someone who will never be a 1, 2, or 3 starter who is making $3MM.

Bukvich could never stick with a club which was known as having the worst bullpen the AL 2 years ago and had 2 closers go down last year. So you do the math. Maybe getting him off a KC/Omaha diet will help out. Hopefully the jinx of Jay Witasik doesn't rear it's ugly head.

That being said, Tankersley probably will be starting for us this year and a power righty is definitely in our need category with all our junkball southpaws.

T-Long is a longshot that he busts out in a contract year. I hope Abe Nunez beats him out for RF."

Crapshoot

12-07-2004, 09:09 PM

I think the Royals won that - in that they dumped a part they didnt for a RF who awful as he was, was better than anyone else the Royals had. Also, they got the most talented player in the deal - Tankersly. I think May will be happy in PETCO (where his fly balls will stay in the park) and be decent - but I think the greatest upside is with the Royals.

sterlingice

12-07-2004, 09:10 PM

Frankly, this is how I see it, except I think it's a wash more than a Pads win because we both got rid of problems and might have improved. It's not as if we could have spun club cancer, below average innings eater Darrell May into anything else. But, yeah, he should get you guys 12 wins and 200 innings out of that #5 spot next year. That said, he wouldn't do that here next year- he'd get 8-10 wins and 200 innings and we might as well give some of the young guys a shot since we're rebuilding. Long's the exact same way: he does crap for you next year, but maybe he can do something here. That said, I agree with the guy that says "hopefully Nunez beats him out". Tank is the one we figure is worth a little more and hope the change of scenery helps him.

SI

stevew

12-07-2004, 10:59 PM

Why oh why do you think the Phillies would trade their setup guy and clubhouse leader for an inury waiting to happen and a clubhouse cancer? That deal would never EVER happen.

Look, Worrell for Lofton was supposedly already on the table(I guess it turned into FRod). Brown was rumored to go to Philly, and the D-backs alledgedly wanted Posada included in a deal for Big Unit(at least they did at one point). I didn't think i was speculating that hard that Lieby could be the Yankees catcher, considering he was talking about waiving his 10/5 to go to a winner(if he was gonna be traded).

revrew

12-07-2004, 11:06 PM

Cubs + Carlos = Reverse the Curse??

Cuckoo

12-08-2004, 09:05 AM

Cubs + Carlos = Reverse the Curse??

Don't need the question marks on that one. :D

Fonzie

12-08-2004, 09:21 AM

The Cardinals have resigned Matt Morris (http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20041208&content_id=919544&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp) to a one-year deal. Terms of the deal have not yet been disclosed, and I think how much they got him for will go a long way in determining whether this was a good move or not. Matty Mo recently underwent shoulder surgery, which probably explains why he was so inconsistent this past year. This last year he pitched like a #4 starter, so hopefully they got him at something close to a #4 price, as I'd have much rather seen the Cardinals put that money toward Renteria (whom they have offered arbitration to).

We'll have to wait and see on this one, methinks.

Ksyrup

12-08-2004, 09:32 AM

I think he re-signed for $2.5M, plus another $4.5M in incentives.

Fonzie

12-08-2004, 10:30 AM

I think he re-signed for $2.5M, plus another $4.5M in incentives.

In my opinion that would make this a decent signing for the Cardinals. That should (hopefully) leave them with enough cash to get Renteria back in the fold.

WSUCougar

12-08-2004, 10:56 AM

In my opinion that would make this a decent signing for the Cardinals. That should (hopefully) leave them with enough cash to get Renteria back in the fold.
Yup.

The Cubs signing Garciaparra is big on the Renteria front, since that was one of his expected wealthy suitors.

DaddyTorgo

12-08-2004, 08:37 PM

Sox signed Matt Mantei to a one-year deal. Any D'backs fans out there who can tell us what this guy brings to the table? Should we as Sox fans be upbeat about this signing, or is it basically a crapshoot?

Bomber

12-08-2004, 09:18 PM

I'd say its basically a crapshoot. You could have a very good setup man on your hands, or a serviceable reliever, or a pile of shit, but at 750k the risk is so little that its a good move.

Bomber

12-09-2004, 03:05 PM

I'm hearing this right now:

Braves:
Get Danny Haren and Jeff Suppan
A's
Get Marcus Giles and another player
Cards:
Get Tim Hudson

Fonzie

12-09-2004, 03:13 PM

I'm hearing this right now:

Braves:
Get Danny Haren and Jeff Suppan
A's
Get Marcus Giles and another player
Cards:
Get Tim Hudson

:eek:

korme

12-09-2004, 03:17 PM

Fuck that! I wish the Reds would A.) sign ANYBODY DECENT... PLEASE B.) trade for ANYBODY DECENT..

this sucks

Bomber

12-09-2004, 03:20 PM

Apparently, Dan Patrick just said the trade is imminent, but is a combo of these players: Dan Haren, Jason Marquis, Kiko Calero, Rick Ankiel and Daric Barton. I guess no Braves then.

Bomber

12-09-2004, 03:20 PM

Beat you to it.

Ksyrup

12-09-2004, 03:21 PM

I'm hearing this right now:

Braves:
Get Danny Haren and Jeff Suppan
A's
Get Marcus Giles and another player
Cards:
Get Tim Hudson

From rotoworld:

According to TSN's Ken Rosenthal and ESPN's Dan Patrick, the Cardinals and A's could be close to agreeing to a Tim Hudson trade.

Some combination of Dan Haren, Jason Marquis, Kiko Calero, Rick Ankiel and Daric Barton would have to be involved in the deal. The A's wouldn't get both Haren and Marquis, but they'd have to get one of two and then one or two of the other three. Dec. 9 - 3:49 pm et

ISiddiqui

12-09-2004, 03:30 PM

So, I'm trying to figure out why Troy Glaus signed with the abysmal D-Backs. If it was for money, couldn't he get that money from a better team? I'd think so!

Ksyrup

12-09-2004, 03:35 PM

I think Glaus was only going to be offered 4 years by Detroit and Arizona. Maybe he's just a west coast kinda guy.

Bearcat729

12-09-2004, 03:36 PM

Fuck that! I wish the Reds would A.) sign ANYBODY DECENT... PLEASE B.) trade for ANYBODY DECENT..

this sucks

We did resign Paul Wilson you know :D

And ESPN says we have been talking to Jason Christiansen.

I hate Carl Linder.

Crapshoot

12-09-2004, 03:37 PM

We did resign Paul Wilson you know :D

And ESPN says we have been talking to Jason Christiansen.

I hate Carl Linder.

would be great if you signed JC- Sabean would get a draft pick despite his worst intentions.

Bomber

12-09-2004, 03:47 PM

From http://forums.stltoday.com/viewtopic.php?t=216694&sid=707769cebc919368281eae41f46f0a99:

Just got off the phone with the GM moments ago....

Jocketty, who just landed in SoCal, called me from the airport.

Here's his response:

"We've had discussions with Oakland, but nothing is close. Oakland would like to move on something in the next few days, and we're talking, but so are a lot of teams. We're not close to anything."

On Renteria.... Jocketty said he expects to field a proposal from Barry Meister tomorrow (friday) and will try to hammer out a deal.

Cheers,
Bernie

Fonzie

12-09-2004, 04:12 PM

On Renteria.... Jocketty said he expects to field a proposal from Barry Meister tomorrow (friday) and will try to hammer out a deal.

Cheers,
Bernie

*crosses fingers*

Bomber

12-09-2004, 05:04 PM

Jeff Kent just signed with the Dodgers. http://msn.foxsports.com/story/3233520

stevew

12-09-2004, 10:50 PM

Jeff Kent just signed with the Dodgers. http://msn.foxsports.com/story/3233520

I wonder if this means Beltre is gone?

Mr. Sparkle

12-09-2004, 11:22 PM

Word is that the Angels have signed Steve finley for 20 million over 2 years, with an announcement coming tomorrow. Wow. As a Giants fan, this makes me very happy. Sabean had a raging huge mega boner over Finley. He even offered him a 3 year deal. 3 years. Just what we need, another 97 year old outfielder. Sheesh.

stevew

12-09-2004, 11:32 PM

With the Angels out of the bidding, It appears that not many teams can afford or will have a need for Beltran. If the Astros come up a bit on their offer, maybe he will stay?

sterlingice

12-09-2004, 11:47 PM

With the Angels out of the bidding, It appears that not many teams can afford or will have a need for Beltran. If the Astros come up a bit on their offer, maybe he will stay? How about they tell Boras to fuck himself because the other serious team is out of the bidding and wait for him to settle. That'd be nice for baseball. Won't happen.

SI

sterlingice

12-09-2004, 11:57 PM

Speaking of which, has this year seemed more insane than the last couple? So much stupid money being thrown around. The Yankees are to be expected, giving both Jaret Wright and Tony Womack twice what they are worth. Steve Finley at what?? He's pretty good but when the guy being touted as a "bargain" to Beltran gets that kind of money??? Gascan Headcase Benitez at $7M per? The Christian Guzman and Vinny Castilla duo? Omar Vizquel?

Not to say there aren't some bargains. I think Nomar and Lieber will have nice bouncebacks and look like bargains. Matt Mantei and Matt Morris seem fairly cheap for what they can offer (not too much money wasted if they don't pan out). But, all the talk of "the market correcting itself" seems to be going back on itself this season.

SI

Desnudo

12-10-2004, 12:16 AM

sterlingice

12-10-2004, 12:21 AM

I think the dearth of true quality pitching is contributing to the problem. Last year you had some serious guns out there: Andy Pettite, Clemens, and Schilling to name a few. This year it's really 2nd and 3rd starters with the possible exception of Pedro. With all the hype Pavano has gotten, he's really a one year wonder to this point and pitched in the NL. The fact that teams are drooling over him says something.
Schilling, sure. Clemens has question marks due to age. And Pettite, well, I've always contended Pettite is a glorified Brad Radke who has a high profile because he was on the Yankees which always helps you when your contract comes due.

SI

SirFozzie

12-10-2004, 12:21 AM

Local TV reports that Pedro will sign a 3 year/40 Million Deal with the sox within the next 48 hours

Desnudo

12-10-2004, 12:31 AM

Schilling, sure. Clemens has question marks due to age. And Pettite, well, I've always contended Pettite is a glorified Brad Radke who has a high profile because he was on the Yankees which always helps you when your contract comes due.

SI

All that may be true, but I'm talking about what the value perception was. They set the market whatever their true worth actually was. There aren't any free agent pitchers this year with that capability.

sterlingice

12-10-2004, 01:07 AM

All that may be true, but I'm talking about what the value perception was. They set the market whatever their true worth actually was. There aren't any free agent pitchers this year with that capability.
I dunno. I'd equate Pedro to Clemens: great pitcher when on but with question marks (injury vs age). That said, he's the only "A"-grade free agent. However, if you have prospects to part with, Randy Johnson, Oakland's big 3, etc can be had.

SI

Arles

12-10-2004, 07:17 PM

Interesting developments here in Arizona. The DBacks have signed both Glaus and Russ Ortiz and are trying to hammer out a 2-year deal with Royce Clayton. There's also a rumor that Johnson may be moved in a three-way deal that sends RJ to the Yankees, Vasquez and cash to the White Sox and Paul Konerko and Jon Garland + potential prospects from both NYY and the Sox to Arizona. Depending on the prospects, that may not be a bad move for Arizona as Konerko hit 41 HRs last season and Garland is a serviceable No. 3. I just hope the DBacks can get a catcher and one more legit starting pitcher as well.

stevew

12-10-2004, 07:32 PM

Bomber

12-11-2004, 12:32 PM

ESPN 1050 in New York and Ken Rosenthal of the Sporting News is reporting that the Yankees and RHP Carl Pavano have agreed to a deal. Exact terms have yet to be disclosed.

Bomber

12-11-2004, 12:34 PM

ESPN is reporting Renteria to the Sox for 4 years, 44 million.

sterlingice

12-11-2004, 04:39 PM

ESPN is reporting Renteria to the Sox for 4 years, 44 million. Congrats on the Red Sox for becoming the new Yankees who drive the market with retarded prices for free agents. Well, that's not entirely true (*cough*Jaret Wright*cough*)

SI

Desnudo

12-11-2004, 04:46 PM

Congrats on the Red Sox for becoming the new Yankees who drive the market with retarded prices for free agents. Well, that's not entirely true (*cough*Jaret Wright*cough*)

SI

*Omar Vizquel*

Bomber

12-11-2004, 04:52 PM

Congrats on the Red Sox for becoming the new Yankees who drive the market with retarded prices for free agents. Well, that's not entirely true (*cough*Jaret Wright*cough*)

SI

Not anymore:

According to CBS Sportsline's Scott Miller, reports are that Jaret Wright flunked his physical with the Yankees because of a shoulder problem.

Maybe now we'll make a big offer on Pedro.

Bomber

12-11-2004, 04:53 PM

And the new report from Gammons is Renteria to the Sox for 4 years, in the 40 million range. I guess they must be planning on sending Ramirez somewhere for pitching.

sterlingice

12-11-2004, 04:58 PM

*Omar Vizquel*
True, it was stupid but that's $4M apples and $10M oranges.

SI

Fonzie

12-11-2004, 05:00 PM

ESPN is reporting Renteria to the Sox for 4 years, 44 million.

Fuck :mad:

Yet another reason for this Cardinals fan, who used to root for the Red Sox out of sympathy, to absolutely hate them. Welcome to Steinbrenner's World, John Henry!

Bomber

12-11-2004, 05:02 PM

Fuck :mad:

Yet another reason for this Cardinals fan, who used to root for the Red Sox out of sympathy, to absolutely hate them. Welcome to Steinbrenner's World, John Henry!

I've been saying it all day, the Red Sox are becoming the new Yankees.

Bomber

12-11-2004, 05:05 PM

Well maybe not:

The Yankees and Carl Pavano are currently putting the finishing touches on a four-year deal worth about $40 million.

Bomber

12-11-2004, 06:25 PM

The Yankees and Carl Pavano have agreed to terms on a four-year, $44 million contract, SportsTicker reports.
The AP says the deal will be worth about $39 million. According to agent Scott Shapiro, Pavano made the decision to sign with the Yankees early this morning. He'll join a Yankee rotation that is still in flux beyond the top two starters. Javier Vazquez and Kevin Brown remain candidates to be traded and deals with Jaret Wright and Eric Milton are still up in the air.

Chief Rum

12-11-2004, 07:27 PM

Thank God the Yankees signed him. I was really worried my Angels would sign him, because I am convinced he is nowhere near as good as he was last year, and we would be vastly overpaying him.

Now we can concentrate on Clement (who is about the level I expect Pavano to end up at, with the strikeouts added, and he'll cost less).

CR

GrantDawg

12-11-2004, 07:33 PM

The Braves have picked up Dan Kolb from the Brewers for a prospect. That means Smoltzie will start (or play RF, which is where it was rumored he asked to move).

GrantDawg

12-11-2004, 07:41 PM

BTW, something must have happened to back this off, but ESPN radio reported earlier today that Pedro to the Mets was nearly a done deal.

JonInMiddleGA

12-11-2004, 10:18 PM

The Braves have picked up Dan Kolb from the Brewers for a prospect. That means Smoltzie will start (or play RF, which is where it was rumored he asked to move).

That's not just any prospect (according to the AJC) ... it's fireballer Jose Capellan. A horrendous deal, IMO, it moves Smoltz to the rotation so he can blow up his arm, sends a prospect with a howitzer away, and puts the 9th inning in the hand of a guy who has had his elbow rebuilt and a torn rotator cuff.

It's better than Giles-for-Hudson, but that doesn't mean it doesn't suck either.

sterlingice

12-11-2004, 11:08 PM

That's not just any prospect (according to the AJC) ... it's fireballer Jose Capellan. A horrendous deal, IMO, it moves Smoltz to the rotation so he can blow up his arm, sends a prospect with a howitzer away, and puts the 9th inning in the hand of a guy who has had his elbow rebuilt and a torn rotator cuff.

It's better than Giles-for-Hudson, but that doesn't mean it doesn't suck either.
How was Giles for Hudson a bad deal. The specifics didn't really stick with me, but I'd rather have Tim Hudson even on a pitching heavy team like the Braves. Then again, that's before contracts, etc, get in the way to muddy the deal.

SI

samifan24

12-11-2004, 11:32 PM

As a diehard Indians fan, I'm happy with Shapiro's move today in acquiring LHP Arthur Rhodes from the Pirates for OF Matt Lawton. They both make the same money and with the bevy of young OFs we have in Cleveland or the system, we filled a big hole (the bullpen) and traded an expensive, aging spare part. Rhodes isn't the answer to the Tribe's bullpen woes, but he'll help. At 35, he only has a few years left him in (hoping this season was not his new norm) but, more importantly, this shows me that Shapiro is holding true to his promise that the Tribe will contend in '05.

ISiddiqui

12-11-2004, 11:58 PM

Damn... Kolb to be the closer and Smoltz starting? NOT a great move at all. Smoltz may be a good starting pitcher again, but for how long before he gets hurt? And Kolb as closer? Oh man... no more automatic 9th anymore.

Bomber

12-12-2004, 01:57 AM

How was Giles for Hudson a bad deal. The specifics didn't really stick with me, but I'd rather have Tim Hudson even on a pitching heavy team like the Braves. Then again, that's before contracts, etc, get in the way to muddy the deal.

SI

I suppose that the Braves have proved that they can produce a good pitching staff with just about anyone, but not good hitters. But Marcus Giles is a second basemen, and Tim Hudson could be a true ace in Atlanta, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

Arles

12-12-2004, 07:37 PM

ESPN is reporting Renteria to the Sox for 4 years, 44 million.
Just on ESPN today:
"According to ESPN's Jayson Stark, the Edgar Renteria story took yet another twist Saturday. The Cardinals, who at one point thought they were out of the running, were informed by Renteria's agent, Jeff Lane, that reports had been exaggerated of an impending deal with Boston. So Renteria is now talking with both teams, along with the Tigers.

Renteria is hopeful that St. Louis will increase its offer and make it competitve enough with Boston's so that he can return to the Cardinals. St. Louis has offered Renteria a four-year, $32 million deal. Boston reportedly is offering four years for $38 million."

ESPN is also reporting that if Renteria chooses to go to Boston, the Cards may sign Orlando Cabrera or Barry Larkin and use the extra money on a pitcher like Milwood or Lowe.

They also stated it's a done deal on Clayton to Arizona for a 1-year $1.3 million deal. As a DBack fan, I like that move as the team has a great prospect in Sergio Sanchez and is supposedly getting closer to signing Stephen Drew. No reason to waste more than a year on Clayton.

As a side note, I think ESPN has set a record for "done deals" that never happen in the past two weeks.

dawgfan

12-12-2004, 07:42 PM

Now we can concentrate on Clement (who is about the level I expect Pavano to end up at, with the strikeouts added, and he'll cost less).

Unfortunately for me and the Mariners, Bavasi doesn't seem to realize that Matt Clement even exists given the complete lack of any attention given to him by the M's front office.

I agree - I think Clement has proven himself moreso than Pavano has and will likely end up a relative bargain in comparison.

Bomber

12-12-2004, 07:53 PM

As a side note, I think ESPN has set a record for "done deals" that never happen in the past two weeks.

Yeah I've started to wait until 2 or more sources pick up a story now. Too many times this week have things been "done", when in reality they're only almost done, or sometimes even just entering into negotiations.

Fonzie

12-12-2004, 08:33 PM

Just on ESPN today:
"According to ESPN's Jayson Stark, the Edgar Renteria story took yet another twist Saturday. The Cardinals, who at one point thought they were out of the running, were informed by Renteria's agent, Jeff Lane, that reports had been exaggerated of an impending deal with Boston. So Renteria is now talking with both teams, along with the Tigers.

Renteria is hopeful that St. Louis will increase its offer and make it competitve enough with Boston's so that he can return to the Cardinals. St. Louis has offered Renteria a four-year, $32 million deal. Boston reportedly is offering four years for $38 million."

C'mon, Edgar! Don't fall to the Dark Side!

Desnudo

12-12-2004, 08:42 PM

dark side? Come on!

ISiddiqui

12-12-2004, 08:45 PM

C'mon, Edgar! Don't fall to the Dark Side!

Since when was he linked to the Yankees? ;)

Fonzie

12-12-2004, 08:50 PM

dark side? Come on!

Every team with more payroll than my Cardinals is on the "Dark Side." :)

Bomber

12-12-2004, 09:05 PM

Not much going on today, so far. Here's a few updates:

After a meeting with Detroit, Edgar Renteria's agent said his client was "seriously considering" the Tigers.

Carlos Beltran’s agent discussed the All-Star center fielder with the Yankees, who also met with the agent for Pedro Martinez. While New York manager Brian Cashman said he hadn’t made an offer to Beltran, he refused to say whether he offered a contract to the three-time Cy Young Award winner.

sterlingice

12-13-2004, 04:41 AM

Everyone all excited over the Rule V Draft tomorrow?!? Ok, me neither but there a couple of decent guys to be had and that's coming up and here's an article on MLB.com about them.

For anyone who doesn't know what the Rule V Draft is, here's the quick primer, best I can remember it. In fact, no, I won't do that. I'll cheat and copy from the KC Star's notes about it:

"Players are eligible for the Rule 5 draft if left unprotected on their team's 40-man roster and if they have at least three years of professional service (four years if age 18 or younger when initially signed).

Teams pay $50,000 to acquire the player, who must remain on his new team's big-league roster for the entire season or be offered back to his former team for $25,000."

Basically, if you've got 3 years of professional service, you have to be put on the 40 man roster or risk being taken. You pay $50K to their old club, keep him stashed on your MLB roster the entire season (i.e. you can't send him down to the minors without offering him back to his original club) and then he's yours. Of course, if you don't put him on your 40 man roster the next year, someone else could snatch him up.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20041212&content_id=921565&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp

SI

daedalus

12-13-2004, 07:38 AM

Sadly enough, I do get kinda excited about the Rule V draft. I mean, y'know, not like I go around all day antsy to find out who gets drafted or anything but I do check every year just for curiosity sake. There can be very useful players coming through there. Of course, living in the Dodgers area, I was assured of annual disappointment as Fred Claire and Kevin Malone had zero imagination in using a cheaper mean of talent acquisition. I am curious about how DePodesta will use it, though.

Scholes

12-13-2004, 07:57 AM

Johan Santana was a Rule V draftee from the Astros.

Last year they could of had Clemens, Pettitte, Oswalt, Miller, Santana, Backe.

Wow.

sterlingice

12-14-2004, 12:00 AM

I know this isn't going to attract too many posts, but:

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><td class="yspsctnhdln">Brewers: Lee obtained in trade</td> </tr> <tr> <td height="7"><spacer type="block" height="1" width="1"></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> by Fanball Staff - Fanball.com (http://www.fanball.com/index.cfm/sct.2/yahoo.1)
Tuesday, December 14, 2004

News
Outfielder Carlos Lee (http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/6161/) was traded on Monday, but he will only have to travel about an hour north on Interstate 94. He was shipped from the White Sox to the Brewers in exchange for outfielder Scott Podsednik (http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/6489/), reliever Luis Vizcaino (http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/6291/), and a player to be named later. "Carlos Lee fills our biggest offseason need," Brewers general manager Bob Melvin told ESPN. "He is the perfect fit with Geoff Jenkins (http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/5948/) and Lyle Overbay (http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/6639/) in the middle of our order. We knew that we needed to give up two good players to make this transaction happen." Lee hit a career-high .305 with 31 home runs and 99 RBI for the Sox in 2004.

Views
The White Sox added some speed, defense, and room in the budget by trading for Podsednik, whom they are hoping will drastically improve on his .244 batting average of last season. Both Chicago and fanasty owners are looking for numbers closer to the .313 he hit in 2003 as a rookie. He was a menace on the basepaths though, stealing a major league high 70 bases in 2004. The Brewers got the big right-handed bat that their lineup that they needed in Lee, who will enjoy playing his home games at hitter-friendly Miller Park.
I don't know anything about the contract situations so if a Sox or *gasp* Brewers fan could throw some input out there, I'd be curious to see it. First they manage upon Capellan and likely Buddy Hernandez in the Braves trade for a decent but not spectacular closer. I mean, geez, if Joe Nathan and Jason Isringhausen can be a good closer, any halfwit starter who takes less than an inning to warm up can be a decent closer. Hell, Jose Mesa can still pull down a paycheck as a closer. But I digress.

Now they trade away Posednik who I had heard in rumblings for teams who lose out on Beltran (which, of course, with a couple of bucks will get you a cup of coffee, but still) for a guy who is probably only contract for another year or two. Then again, if it's a favorable contract, I suppose they could do a lot worse. Lee seems to have leveled off as a .290-30-100 guy with a .900 OPS and that's not too shabby even these days and all it cost them was a spare part (Viscaino) and a 28yo OF who took a big step back in his second major league season.

SI

ISiddiqui

12-14-2004, 12:29 AM

While getting Lee is good for the Brew Crew, I think dealing Podsednik because of a sophomore slump last year is a bit harsh. The guy has great speed. He still could be a very good player and I'd imagine he's cheaper than Lee. I don't know Milwaukee's salary situation, but I didn't think it was very good.

daedalus

12-14-2004, 05:58 AM

Everyone all excited over the Rule V Draft tomorrow?!? Ok, me neither but there a couple of decent guys to be had and that's coming up and here's an article on MLB.com about them.Interesting stuff.

Looks like your Royals wound up with a pretty good pick. According to John Siskel on ESPN, he has talent and has had solid results in the past. Taking a chance on him after one mediocre season seems worthwhile to me. Plus, if nothing else, a big, young lefty with heat is always worthwhile trade bait. Of course, Baird does not seem to have much clue in the way of trades so that cuts that possibility down.

I like LA's pick as far as possibility for production goes. LA's (DePodesta), Boston's (Epstein) and Oakland's (Beane) picks all seem to fit the profile of "their" type of players: solid production on pedestrian talent. I am a bit disappointed that DePodesta did not just figure out a way to trade those guys he left unprotected instead of just losing them via Rule V since it sounds like they actually have talent.

sterlingice

12-14-2004, 06:56 AM

I'll give Baird this, he's doing better at trades. Berroa had a bad year last year, no doubt, but after Angel had won ROY, that Dye/Ellis for Berroa deal wasn't looking too bad in hindsight. Last year he stole Bautista from the Orioles for spare part Jason Grimsley. Granted, TNSTAAPP applies, but did I already mention, he got him from Jason freaking Grimsley. And I thought he did an awesome job with the Beltran trade- Buck only hit .235 but had 12 homers and was showing good leather in just a half season while Teahan has scorched AAA and winter ball and Mike Wood was just the throwin anyways- he looked more like a mop up bullpen kind of guy: not very good but he's only 24.

I'll confess I have a sick little interest in the Rule V also, because, I manage to snag a player in a BBPro league I play in every once in a while. Despite having a really strong farm system, I manage to keep guys away from the draft and add some excess talent. Looks like the Royals did the same as there's nothing to lose with this guy since there's not a lot of pressure to win this season. Plus, they've had some luck in the past. Miguel Ascensio a couple of years ago was a Rule V guy and he's going to be competing for a rotation spot, coming off of arm surgery, and DJ Carrasco did well in the bullpen for parts of the last couple of years, but he looked bad the second half of last year. Last year, they traded some cash for a no hit, all field, speed guy to be their 25th man and 5th OF/defensive replacement. Sounded like a good idea until he showed up to camp, got MLB jitters, and couldn't catch a cold. Oops- good plan, bad execution. Regardless, on a team with lots of spots open for the future, why not open the competition for one more spot

SI

JonInMiddleGA

12-14-2004, 07:21 AM

Looks like the Braves might be back in the running for Tim Hudson.
http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/1204/14braves.html

The Braves were said to be out of the Hudson sweepstakes after refusing to include second baseman Marcus Giles in a trade. But a source close to negotiations said Beane informed the Braves that a deal was possible without Giles, and the two clubs intensified their talks Sunday and Monday.

The A's were asking for a package of at least three prospects or young players, including left-hander Dan Meyer, who went 9-3 with a 2.49 ERA in 26 games (24 starts) while splitting last season between Class AA Greenville and Class AAA Richmond.

WSUCougar

12-14-2004, 09:25 AM

Arles

12-14-2004, 09:50 AM

Here's a very interesting article on the Arizona salary situation. The major sports media (most notably ESPN) has been hammering Arizona for spending the money they did on Ortiz and Glaus. Yet, they failed to look at the big picture. Essentially, Arizona has cut out almost $40 million from their 2004 payroll through trades and/or contracts expiring on 11 players. Thus far, they have replaced them with a grand total of $17.45 million in 2005 to Glaus, Ortiz, Royce Clayton and Craig Counsell, with a current 2005 payroll of about $54 million. So, even if the DBacks keep Randy Johnson and sign a couple more FAs (pitcher like Estes or Burnett and OF like Burnitz), they still figure to be at a mark about $20 million less than the $80 million they had at the start of 2004.

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/1214dbmoney1214.html

MikeVic

12-14-2004, 09:53 AM

Jays got Koskie I believe... and are going after Clement right now too. Delgado is gone, though. :(

Look like Hinske will be moved to 1B.

WSUCougar

12-14-2004, 09:53 AM

Jays got Koskie I believe... and are going after Clement right now too. Delgado is gone, though. :(

Look like Hinske will be moved to 1B.
Damn! I wanted Koskie to go to the M's or back with the Twinkies.

sterlingice

12-14-2004, 11:00 AM

Yeah, too bad about Matheny. It would've been nice to get him back, but not for the price the Giants were willing to pay (last I heard it was 3yrs, $9 million). Tough loss.

Oh, and with regard to Koskie - a colleague of mine is his first cousin. Just in case you wanted to know. :)
Even more, actually: "After signing nine-time Gold Glove shortstop Omar Vizquel (http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/4306/) last month, they added catcher Mike Matheny (http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/mlbpa/players/5205/), who has won three Gold Gloves, signing him to a three-year, $10.5 million contract, including an option for the 2008 season."

SI

Fonzie

12-14-2004, 11:01 AM

The Giants signed free agent catcher Mike Matheny away from the Cards. The writing was already on the wall for this, unfortunately...Matheny was worth more than STL was willing/able to pay him since they have an rising stud (and inexpensive) catcher in Yadier Molina and have other, more pressing (and expensive) needs.

I wish Matheny well. He is an fantastic defensive catcher, is great for the pitchers, is a team leader, and is one of those guys you'd want on your team.

Yeah, too bad about Matheny. It would've been nice to get him back, but not for the price the Giants were willing to pay (last I heard it was 3yrs, $9 million). Tough loss.

Oh, and with regard to Koskie - a colleague of mine is his first cousin. Just in case you wanted to know. :)

Bomber

12-14-2004, 11:24 AM

Jays got Koskie I believe... and are going after Clement right now too. Delgado is gone, though. :(

Look like Hinske will be moved to 1B.

Hinske sucks. He wont' hit the way a first basemen should. They're going to try and move him I think.

Chief Rum

12-14-2004, 03:33 PM

Sox apparently have entered the fray for Clement and likely started a bidding war with the Angels (gee, I wonder who will win that one, yup Evil Empire II).

That also means Cleveland, Detroit and Toronto probably won't be able to keep up with either.

CR

Chief Rum

12-14-2004, 03:34 PM

Oh and we signed Paul Byrd, according to a couple reports I have seen.

I am still trying to digest if that's actually a good thing (and we're still going after Clement apparently).

CR

Desnudo

12-14-2004, 03:49 PM

Chief Rum

12-14-2004, 04:11 PM

Ha! Like Anaheim's $100 million payroll is anything to sneeze at. Evil Empire III. :p

lol...I was almost going to add something exactly like that after pointing out Toronto, Detroit and Cleveland wouldn't keep up with either of us. :)

Still, we're pretty close to our top payroll possible (at this economic moment) when we hit $100 M, and you guys pass that level without a thought.

CR

Desnudo

12-14-2004, 04:17 PM

Only because the Yankees make them. It really is all the Yankees fault in the end. ;)

Chief Rum

12-14-2004, 04:25 PM

Only because the Yankees make them. It really is all the Yankees fault in the end. ;)

I can agree with that, damn Yankees. :)

JonInMiddleGA

12-14-2004, 05:17 PM

Oh and we signed Paul Byrd, according to a couple reports I have seen.

You really caught me off-guard with that one, I think I just assumed he would re-sign with Atlanta after they offered arbitration. And the story hasn't even made the local papers yet.

I can't help but think this might lend just a little more credence to the Hudson-to-Atlanta possibility, otherwise, the Braves are right back to having only 4 starters (Smoltz,Thomson,Hampton,Ramirez,and Byrd were sorta penciled in) again even with the Kolb-acquisition/Smoltz-move.

Chief Rum

12-14-2004, 05:19 PM

Although I have read little blurbs saying this, I would still keep it at rumor level until we get confirmation from major sources. As of yet, I haven't seen a thing about Byrd signing with the Angels at ESPN or CNNSI or any of the top sports news outlets.

CR

JonInMiddleGA

12-14-2004, 05:37 PM

As of yet, I haven't seen a thing about Byrd signing with the Angels at ESPN or CNNSI or any of the top sports news outlets.

There's a press release at
http://anaheim.angels.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/index.jsp?c_id=ana

I figured that was about as official as it could get ;)

Chief Rum

12-14-2004, 06:12 PM

There's a press release at
http://anaheim.angels.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/index.jsp?c_id=ana

I figured that was about as official as it could get ;)

Touché. :)

So, Jon, as you're a guy who has been able to watch Byrd pitch on a start to start basis, what's your opinion on him? Is he recovered from his injuries? How much of his performance is due to playing under your pitching coach (forget his name, Mazzone?)? I know he has good years before (KC, Philly), but he seems to be a very hit and miss type of pitcher (at least on a season to season basis).

CR

JonInMiddleGA

12-14-2004, 06:31 PM

... what's your opinion on him? Is he recovered from his injuries?

I think "hit and miss" is a pretty good description of Byrd at this point.
His month-by-month line pretty well covers it

June - 15.1 IP, 1 of 3 7+ IP, 2.93 ERA, 1-1
July - 25.1 IP, 1 of 5 7+ , 4.26 ERA, 1-2
Aug - 31.0 IP, 3 of 6 7+ , 4.06 ERA, 3-1
Sep - 38.2 IP, 3 of 6 7+ , 2.33 ERA, 3-2
Oct - 4.0 IP, 0 of 1 7+, 3.94 ERA, 0-1

Now, mixed into those numbers was:
5 straight starts allowing 3 runs or less followed by ...
4 of 5 starts allowing 4 runs or more followed by ...
5 straight starts allows 3 runs or less followed by ...
allowing 17 runs in his final 15 IP (3 starts)

You just never knew whether you'd see the effective guy or the ineffective guy. And when he's ineffective, it's not pretty. He's a borderline 4th/5th starter IMO, although in today's MLB, he might be a #3 guy somewhere. But unless it's a team that really pounds the ball, I can't see him being more than a .500 pitcher anymore.

sterlingice

12-14-2004, 06:44 PM

He was fairly good in the year he did well for the Royals. Basically, you'd expect 7 IP and a couple of runs and get somewhere around that every night. He ticked off a bunch of fans by mouthing off during the labor negotiations that year so there was a general "don't let the door hit you on the ass on the way out" sentiment when he signed with the Braves and I'm guessing there were even some who enjoyed the fact that he went under the knife almost immediately after leaving the team.

EDIT: Jon, I think that you have to take those numbers with a grain of salt because he was coming off Tommy John surgery and it does take about a season after you come back to regain your stuff. That said, I think you're fairly accurate, tho I'd say a #3/4 on a good team or a #2 on a small market team.

SI

Chief Rum

12-14-2004, 10:48 PM

The article and my own take agrees with the suggestion he has been signed to be our fifth starter, and I think in that capacity, he could be a steal. Consider that our fifht starter last year was Aaron Sele or Ramon Ortiz, depending on who was pitching better lately. Even Byrd's worst months were better than they were all season.

We also dealt Oritz today for a prospect from the Reds.

Unfortunately, one of the local personalities is saying Stoneman (our GM, if you didn't know) is indicating we will be pulling out of the Clement negotiations. That is frustrating, since I think Clement is on the verge of becoming a very good pitcher, maybe not an ace, but a very good #2. Personally, I would pay $10M+ for such a pitcher, but reports are we won't go higher than $9 M for him--and I'm certain the Red Sox will.

If that is true, our only hope to get a better, top notch level starter is to start in again at RJ, or maybe inquire after other pitchers who might be available (Hudson? Burnett?). Since trades are always an iffy proposition, that puts our offseason as a question mark for me, which is disappointing considering we reportedly had Carlos Beltran at the top of our shopping list, and still have a lot of room in our projected payrol for next season ($95M-$100M).

CR

Vince

12-14-2004, 10:55 PM

Mr. Sparkle

12-14-2004, 11:11 PM

ISiddiqui

12-14-2004, 11:25 PM

M's are close to getting Sexson according to ESPN.

Fonzie

12-14-2004, 11:43 PM

Man, I am completely taken aback by the Giants signing Matheny. I love the guy, but that is a pretty huge contract, and we haven't been able to trade A.J. Pierzynski yet. On top of that, Matheny isn't exactly the offensive force that you'd like a guy with a $10M deal to bring to the table. Some interesting moves being made this off-season by the Giants...

I was hoping my Cards would bring Matheny back - but that deal the Giants offered him was impossible to match (not to mention a bit silly). He'll flash his gold glove and handle the pitchers well, but you already know what to expect from him at the plate: he'll hit in the .240-.250 range with minimal power and 40-ish RBIs.

I love good defensive catchers and all, but to me that's not $10 million worth o' baseball playin'.

Vince

12-15-2004, 01:33 AM

Pierzynski is going to be non-tendered. I hate this move. Why spend all that money on Matheny when Torrealba could give us pretty much the same production at a drastically reduced cost. Oh well, thats the San Francisco Geriatrics for ya. If we don't somehow get a real CF (and I don't mean Dave Roberts), this move reeks of suck.
I think Matheny will be a noticable improvement on the defensive front. He's an amazing receiver back there behind the plate. Now, when he's up to bat...that's an entirely different story.

Z²+

12-15-2004, 02:03 AM

The Pirates are on the verge of signing Methuselah. Err, I mean Benito Santiago.

The implications are staggering. All other conversation really seems irrelevant.

korme

12-15-2004, 02:06 AM

Reds get Ramon Ortiz, Angels get prospect Dustin Moseley.

..woo...Reds...killer moves..

stevew

12-15-2004, 02:32 AM

The Pirates are on the verge of signing Methuselah. Err, I mean Benito Santiago.

The implications are staggering. All other conversation really seems irrelevant.

Benito Steroidiago?

Ragone

12-15-2004, 02:33 AM

When you are forced to sign a player even Kansas city didn't want.. its a bad sign

Alan T

12-15-2004, 08:25 AM

But the question is.. where is Jessie Orosco playing next year?

Arles

12-15-2004, 08:59 AM

ESPN is reporting in their rumors section that it's a done deal and Renteria is choosing to return to St. Louis for slightly less money:

"According to a source close to the situation, shortsop Edgar Renteria will be returning to the Cardinals in 2005 - and the deciding issue was not money. Even though the Red Sox offer (about $36 million over four years) trumped St. Louis' reported final offer ($32 million over four years), Renteria chose familiarity and comfort with his surroundings - teammates, coaches, medical staff - over a few million dollars."

If this is true, it looks like a good deal for St. Louis considering the $8 mil a year is a raise of only 750K over what he made in 2004 ($7.25 mil).

sterlingice

12-15-2004, 11:03 AM

The Pirates are on the verge of signing Methuselah. Err, I mean Benito Santiago.

The implications are staggering. All other conversation really seems irrelevant.
That's actually a trade. And, iirc, the official trade is Benny for a bag of baseballs and another bag to be named later.

SI

sterlingice

12-15-2004, 11:06 AM

Wait? So, a Richie Sexson coming off an injury is worth $11M? So does that make Delgado, coming off an "off year" at .907 OPS $14M?

I swear, fiscal sanity went right out the window this offseason...

SI

sterlingice

12-15-2004, 11:17 AM

Renteria to the Sox for 4 years 40 million.
You know, because when you're making $32M a year and comfortable, an extra $4M isn't worth leaving for a baseball player's hell (in the sense of dealing with the media) but an extra $8M is. *sigh*

SI

Bomber

12-15-2004, 11:18 AM

Renteria to the Sox for 4 years 40 million.

sterlingice

12-15-2004, 11:42 AM

I feel a lot better about the Pirates' long-term stability at catcher now that we got rid of Jason Kendall and picked up Benito Santiago. And the money we saved from Kendall's contract allowed us to spend $7.25M per season for two more years on Matt Lawton, so it has been an all around dominating off season for the Pirates.
So, uh, how's Operation Shutdown? Is he off the books finally? ;)

SI

Swaggs

12-15-2004, 11:45 AM

Fonzie

12-15-2004, 11:55 AM

Renteria to the Sox for 4 years 40 million.

*insert explitive of your choice here*

:mad:

primelord

12-15-2004, 12:16 PM

*insert explitive of your choice here*

:mad:
I second this.

MikeVic

12-15-2004, 12:27 PM

I've heard the Jays thinking about moving Hinske, I just don't know how they can get a better bat without giving up something I don't want them to give up. :)

And I hope they get Clement. And bullpen help.

Cards4ever

12-15-2004, 12:44 PM

Big loss with Renteria. Hopefully this means they can get a good defensive SS and a good starter with the cash that they left on the table.

Fonzie

12-15-2004, 12:59 PM

Big loss with Renteria. Hopefully this means they can get a good defensive SS and a good starter with the cash that they left on the table.

Jocketty is going to have to get busy, as we're down an All-Star SS, a Gold Glove catcher, have a big hole at 2B and are still lacking an anchor for the rotation. He always seems to come through though, so I can't wait to see how he handles all of this.

Bomber

12-15-2004, 01:23 PM

They aren't going to save too much money with Cabrera. He wants 7-8 Million a year.

Cards4ever

12-15-2004, 04:01 PM

Molina will be fine as the catcher, and they added Diaz, so, I think they are ok there. Having the middle infield tore up is another story along with the pitching.

Arles

12-15-2004, 04:10 PM

My guess is the Cards will sign Polanco to play 2B and go after Barry Larkin or Julio Lugo at SS if Cabrera still wants the moon. The problem with Cabrera is that all the people with cash (Boston, NYY, Cubs) are set at SS. The only other suitor would be the Mariners, who are trying to spend big money on Sexson, Beltre and/or Delgado. Not to mention they are in the sweepstakes for one of the top pitchers. The longer Cabrera waits, the cheaper he will be as fewer teams will be interested in paying $7-8 mil a year for a SS.

INDalltheway

12-15-2004, 04:48 PM

Renteria to the Sox for 4 years 40 million.
Best news I have seen all day! I love Renteria, but I am Cubs fan. I wanted the Cubs to pick him up this offseason, but since they didn't I am glad the Cardinals didn't get him.

Arles

12-15-2004, 05:34 PM

I think the morale here is when you target FAs to sign/resign, make darn well sure no one from New York or Boston will enter the bidding ;)

ISiddiqui

12-15-2004, 05:36 PM

I think the other moral here is to lock up your stars during the season BEFORE they hit Free Agency ;).

Cards4ever

12-15-2004, 11:47 PM

Yeah, and of course the Cards could have signed him to a big contract, blow their budget and then see him blow out his back and not perform as expected. Then fans would have pointed to the Cardinals and said, see, they aren't fiscally responsible, look at them just throwing money away.

Desnudo

12-16-2004, 03:10 AM

The big question now for the Red Sox is should they trade Hanley Ramirez for pitching? I'd love to see him stay, maybe converted to second base, that would be a great infield. But if they can use him to get Tim Hudson, well...

WSUCougar

12-16-2004, 06:51 AM

*sigh*

It's not just the on-the-field value of Renteria and Matheny, it's their leadership. Those two guys were two clubhouse anchors. Major losses...:(

sterlingice

12-16-2004, 07:51 AM

OAKLAND, Calif. -- The Milwaukee Brewers (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/clubhouse?team=mil) traded infielder Keith Ginter (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6605) to the Oakland Athletics (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/clubhouse?team=oak) on Wednesday for right-hander Justin Lehr (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7357) and minor league outfielder Nelson Cruz.
So, uh, who again is our Brewers beat reporter here? Uh, yeah... so, anyways
Ginter had a pretty decent year last year: 19 homers out of a utility guy who's only 28 and I can't think he costs a whole lot. So why did the Brewers deal him? To A's fans, is there anything special about Lehr or Cruz that makes this deal make sense to Milwaukee?

SI

DeToxRox

12-16-2004, 12:13 PM

I dunno how true this is, but apparently the Tigers have a 5 year/50 mil contract on the table with JD Drew.

I am not pleased hearing this if true.

I love JD Drew, and if this were a 3 year deal, I don't think it'll be THAT bad. But five years is a lot to ask from him. Hopefully it has incentives for games and such, but I dunno.

That said, if he's healthy over those 5 years, it's gonna be a lot of his prime, so it could pan out exceptionally well.

We will just have to see.

TazFTW

12-16-2004, 02:51 PM

Adrian Beltre has apparently signed a 5 year deal with the Mariners.

[edit]Ken Rosenthal of the Sporting News says it is a 5 year deal worth $64 million.

korme

12-22-2004, 12:37 AM

Drew to the Dodgers 5 yr/55 or 65 mil

Reds got Ben Weber, now Angels fans, do you think he can return to his dominant style or what? He had carpal tunnel most all of last year.

Chief Rum

12-22-2004, 01:11 AM

Drew to the Dodgers 5 yr/55 or 65 mil

Reds got Ben Weber, now Angels fans, do you think he can return to his dominant style or what? He had carpal tunnel most all of last year.

"now Angels fans"...guess that's me. :D

Seriously, Shorty, I don't have a clue how he'll do. He went into last season as one of our stalwarts in the pen. When he went down, we were fortunate in that Scot Shields and Kevin Gregg were able to pick up the slack for him and for Brendan Donnelly (who also was pretty much out or hindered for most of the first half of last season).

I always liked Weber. A bit of a quirky player (check out them goggles :) ), he isn't a burner. Does the fact he relies more on breaking pitches--and the twist of his wrist--mean that his injury could have a bad effect on him? I hope not.

It's a risk, but I think it's a good one. Weber has overcome long odds before, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he did here, too.

CR

Bad-example

12-26-2004, 09:02 PM

Were I a dodger fan...and I am very glad I am not...I would not be happy right now. Depodesta has made some pretty questionable moves.

He allowed Jose Lima to return to the Royals this weekend. He was not expensive...why let him bolt without a fight?

He refused to spend to keep Beltre...then takes those dollars and buys an outfielder with a poor track record of staying healthy.

Failed to offer Finley arbitration, which means he didn't get any draft pick compensation when he signed elsewhere.

Nearly got hosed in a huge trade...got cold feet and changed his mind, damaging his reputation as far as future trades are concerned.

He still hasn't found a decent catcher or 1b and his starting rotation looks pretty thin as it stands.

The dodgers are weaker defensively and offensively than last year as it stands, and they look to need a couple starting pitchers in a market where few good ones are left. Ok, sure, I am a Giants fan and my perspective is surely biased, but aren't the dodgers starting to look a lot like a 3rd place team?

daedalus

12-27-2004, 01:56 AM

He allowed Jose Lima to return to the Royals this weekend. He was not expensive...why let him bolt without a fight?Given that he only got one year from KC, this does not make sense to me either. Unless he was guaranteed far more than reasonable. But, then, given that it is KC, that seems fairly unlikely.He refused to spend to keep Beltre...then takes those dollars and buys an outfielder with a poor track record of staying healthy.Eh, I don't know that Beltre was worth keeping at that level of contract. I would have rather seen him make a move to chase Koskie. Spending the money on Drew, however, seems iffy to me as well because of that almighty "IF".Failed to offer Finley arbitration, which means he didn't get any draft pick compensation when he signed elsewhere.That seems a really dumb move, given that Finley was really unlikely to accept it.Nearly got hosed in a huge trade...got cold feet and changed his mind, damaging his reputation as far as future trades are concerned.Eh, I don't really feel like he hurt himself terribly much to anyone other than the Yankees. The part that hurt the most was probably the fact that he even considered it in the first place.He still hasn't found a decent catcher or 1b and his starting rotation looks pretty thin as it stands.That annoys me, too. Although, it would be fairly insulting to thin to compare it to the Dodgers' current rotation.The dodgers are weaker defensively and offensively than last year as it stands, and they look to need a couple starting pitchers in a market where few good ones are left.Infield defense is certainly weaker but outfield defense has not been hurt, in my opinion. The offense seens really, really iffy right now.Ok, sure, I am a Giants fan and my perspective is surely biased, but aren't the dodgers starting to look a lot like a 3rd place team?3rd place might begin to seem generous real soon.

Bearcat729

12-27-2004, 02:14 PM

The Reds signed Eric Milton today. Looks like they are actually trying to get better this season.

Bomber

12-27-2004, 02:32 PM

The Reds signed Eric Milton today. Looks like they are actually trying to get better this season.

Just so you know, Eric Milton sucks.

Bomber

12-27-2004, 02:35 PM

3 years, $25.5 million for a guy who has never even had one good year. Yankees fans everywhere thank you Cincinnati.

Bad-example

12-27-2004, 07:48 PM

Taking a look at how the Padres are shaping up...

The starting rotation took a hit with the departure of David Wells. New faces include Woody Williams, who signed for a pretty reasonable price, and Darrell May in a trade from Kansas City. With the continued development of the younger starters there is still a lot of talent here.

The bullpen is a bit weaker with Antonio Osuna departing. Have they added any relievers to date?

As far as the lineup goes, they look to be at least good. If Nevin can stay healthy he should do well with Klesko, Giles, Loretta, Burroughs and Greene to keep him company. The addition of Dave Roberts could be huge. I like the Padres to be stronger offensively in '05.

Defensively, Greene is sometimes spectacular and Roberts is a nice upgrade in CF. They could be better than last year with the glove.

Overall, a bit of a mixed bag this off season, but my feeling is they can expect to compete for the division title again and should probably be considered at least co-favorites for the top spot. If the bullpen is anywhere near as strong as last year, they could be very dangerous.

korme

12-27-2004, 07:50 PM

Reds sign Joe Randa, and Eric Milton.

Atleast we are making moves, god damn, and ESPN says we also 'upgraded' our bullpen by getting ex-Reds David Weathers and Kent Mercker, really, I think that just means we filled our 'pen, no upgrades there.

Anyways, I'm glad we are doing something, but 25 mil for Milton seems a little high, and I'd have liked to see us move Kearns to 3B so Pena would be a full time starter. He had such a great season filling in, it's almost not right having him sit pine, and I don't want to hear any jokes about how Griffey will surely get hurt so he can play.

/rant

korme

12-27-2004, 07:59 PM

COOL MAN! http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/%7Efof/forums/images/smilies/biggrin.gif

stevew

12-27-2004, 08:01 PM

McSweeny

12-27-2004, 08:32 PM

yeeesh... that's a ton of money for a guy with a career era or 4.7something. I'm just bummed the Yankees didn't end up paying him that money

Crapshoot

12-27-2004, 08:46 PM

The Reds may have made the dumbass signing of the off season- wow.

ISiddiqui

12-27-2004, 09:54 PM

Yeah, but they are the Reds. They GOTTA overpay to get anyone to play there.

Fonzie

12-28-2004, 12:28 AM

The Reds may have made the dumbass signing of the off season- wow.

I second that motion.

That's crazy money to be throwing at a very mediocre pitcher. But hey, as a Cardinals fan I think that's a great signing. :p

sterlingice

12-28-2004, 06:29 AM

oykib

12-28-2004, 11:00 AM

Frankly, I see it as better than Jaret Wright and on par with some of the other signings. I don't see this as some epic signing that is really out of whack. Problem is, if it fails, it'll sink the Reds a lot more than, say, when the Yanks or Red Sox have that little bit of dead payroll.

SI

I agree with you. I don't like the moves the Yanks have made over the last two off-seasons-- with the exception of the A-Rod trade.

Given the choice, I'd take Eric Milton over Jaret Wright.

They could have had Vlad for a million more than they are paying Sheffield.

Matt Clement will be not just better, but significantly better than Carl Pavano.

Tony f@#$%^&* Womack?!

'Not liking George very much right now. Although, I'm sure I'll forgive him if he delivers Carlos Beltran.

WSUCougar

12-28-2004, 11:23 AM

Bomber

12-28-2004, 11:57 AM

Swaggs

12-28-2004, 01:55 PM

There was a short blurb in the Pittsburgh papers today about the Pirates being amongst the potential partners list in the Diamondbacks-Yankees deal. Apparently, the Diamondbacks are interested in Craig Wilson and Kip Wells. No other details beyond those two players.

Crapshoot

12-28-2004, 02:18 PM

Frankly, I see it as better than Jaret Wright and on par with some of the other signings. I don't see this as some epic signing that is really out of whack. Problem is, if it fails, it'll sink the Reds a lot more than, say, when the Yanks or Red Sox have that little bit of dead payroll.

SI

Win Shares:
Pitcher A: 15.3
Pitcher B: 9.2

VORP
A: 40.3
B: 18.2

K/9:
A: 7.7
B: 7.2

HR/9:
A: 0.5
B: 1.9

BB/9:
A: 3.4
B: 3.4

BABIP (subject to variation- a higher number means he was more unlucky generally, and vice versa)
A: .300
B: .271

Connecting the dots, A was leaps and bounds better and generally appears a far better bet.

WSUCougar

12-28-2004, 02:24 PM

I'm not a sabermetrician...how is VORP calculated, and what does it mean?

Bomber

12-28-2004, 02:29 PM

I'm not a sabermetrician...how is VORP calculated, and what does it mean?

VORP is Value Over Replacement Player. It measures "the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances."

http://digamma.net/btfwiki/index.php/VORP

rkmsuf

12-28-2004, 02:29 PM

I'm not a sabermetrician...how is VORP calculated, and what does it mean?

http://img30.exs.cx/img30/9382/chef4nz.png

Vorp, Vorp, Vorp!

John Galt

12-28-2004, 02:29 PM

I'm not a sabermetrician...how is VORP calculated, and what does it mean?

http://baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=186

That is the basic definition. It is determined by comparing a player versus other players at his position during a given season to determine how many runs over replacement level a player contributes to his team.

WSUCougar

12-28-2004, 03:06 PM

http://img30.exs.cx/img30/9382/chef4nz.png

Vorp, Vorp, Vorp!
Gold :D

But back to VORP...this sounds like a hitting stat, or rather I'm not grasping its application to pitchers.

Bomber

12-28-2004, 03:08 PM

VORP uses MLV adjusted to replacement level and adjusted for park effects and position for position players and runs allowed for pitchers. A replacement level player is one who is freely available to teams. The level of replacement level is set at different levels by different people. In the past baseball prospectus set replacement level for VORP at:

* 70 points of OPS below league positional average for position players
* 1 RA above league average RA for pitchers

More recently they've moved to VORP replacement level at:

* 80% of the average offensive rate (85% is used for catchers, 75% is used for 1B/DH) for position players
* 1.37 * League RA - 0.66 for starting pitchers
* 1.70 * League RA - 2.27 for relief pitchers .
For pitchers, VORP is defined as the number of runs a pitcher surrenders below what a replacement level pitcher would have given up in the same number of innings. Replacement level is set at +1.00 above the league average RA.

korme

12-28-2004, 03:09 PM

Yeah, but they are the Reds. They GOTTA overpay to get anyone to play there.
I strongly disagree. This is a fantastic franchise with a great baseball history, an improbable World Series sweep in '90, the Big Red Machine in the 70's and one of the first franchises ever started in this league... it's just the fact that we don't try nearly enough in the market, that when we do decide we better make a splash, we overspend so we aren't left with no one.

ISiddiqui

12-28-2004, 03:54 PM

I strongly disagree. This is a fantastic franchise with a great baseball history, an improbable World Series sweep in '90, the Big Red Machine in the 70's and one of the first franchises ever started in this league... it's just the fact that we don't try nearly enough in the market, that when we do decide we better make a splash, we overspend so we aren't left with no one.

They may have a good history, but the Free Agent market is invariably a "what have you done for me lately" arena. Since the Reds have not been that great in a while, less people really want to play there.

CentralMassHokie

12-28-2004, 04:49 PM

I just read through some older posts and wanted to say that I think the Dodgers and DePodesta have actually had a pretty great offseason.

They've turned Joey Cora has had exactly one average major league season at the plate. He's replaced by Jeff Kent. Defensively, pretty much every single metric says that Kent has been at worst, average, in the field. Adrian Beltre becomes Jose Valentin. That's obviously an offensive and defensive downgrade - though Valentin can hammer righties, which is probably all he be asked to do. A Kent/Perez platoon at 2B, with Kent/Valentin platooning at 3B, and a full season from Choi at 1B -- I'd argue that's at least comparable to the Padres infield and that's assuming Izturis isn't getting any better with the bat (I doubt he will -- and I bet he's gone from the Dodgers in the next year).

JD Drew's in to play LF/RF. He looks to be past his patellar tendinitis, which means that the Dodgers now have 2 very good offensive and defensive outfielders in Drew and Bradley. That's extremely important with the staff that the Dodgers have built. The 3rd/4th OF position is probably Werth/Green, if they're healthy/not traded. Chen, Ledee, and Grabowski probably get worked in there as well. I'd say that it is probably the best all around outfield in the NL West, since the Padres now have a rapidly declining Giles out there. The Giants have Bonds.

Pitching-wise, the Dodgers are playing to their strengths, building a staff who can pitch in the canyonous Chavez Ravine. They're in dire need of another starter, but I'm assuming there's still a trade to come, likely with Green getting shipped out of town.

All in all, I love what the Pads have done, and I think they're probably neck and neck with the Dodgers. Brian Sabean's off his rocker and the Giants have gotten worse in the offseason, so they'll only go as far as Bonds and Schmidt can carry them, which probably is .500 or so. The Diamondbacks -- well, they suck.

Bearcat729

12-28-2004, 09:38 PM

They may have a good history, but the Free Agent market is invariably a "what have you done for me lately" arena. Since the Reds have not been that great in a while, less people really want to play there.

It's not that they have not been good for a while, but that ownership doesn't try, and when they do it ends up a mistake (Barry Larkin at 9 mil a year) Remember that back when Rolen was going to be traded one of the few teams he would accept a trade to was the Reds (Not only would he come here, Bowden had a deal worked out with an extension that ownership over ruled)

A lot of the problem is that a few players start out of the Reds price range, no one expects them to pick up Pedro at 15 mil a year, but I'm sure that if the Reds offered him 15 mil a year he would consider it.

However I know that if he was offered 15 mil by the Reds and 15 mil by the Yankees he would probably go with New York just because he would be assured of the playoffs.

stevew

12-28-2004, 10:21 PM

Jaret Wright is a big risk and I don't like the signing all that much, but at least he's had that one good year. Sure he's been awful for most of his career, but I'd rather take the risk for potential greatness, rather than settling for definite mediocrity. I'm not familar with Great American Park, but according to ESPN.com its in the top half for home runs allowed. Not quite where Citizens Bank was last year, but with Milton's HR problems I'd expect the balls to be flying out of the park.

Milton gave up roughly the same amount of homers last year at home as he did on the road. I'm glad the phils let him walk, but I'm sort of pissed we traded for him in the first place. I'd rather have kept carlos silva.

Ragone

12-29-2004, 07:36 AM

Lima time! :P

Arles

12-29-2004, 07:37 AM

sterlingice

12-29-2004, 09:30 AM

Win Shares:
Pitcher A: 15.3
Pitcher B: 9.2

VORP
A: 40.3
B: 18.2

K/9:
A: 7.7
B: 7.2

HR/9:
A: 0.5
B: 1.9

BB/9:
A: 3.4
B: 3.4

BABIP (subject to variation- a higher number means he was more unlucky generally, and vice versa)
A: .300
B: .271

Connecting the dots, A was leaps and bounds better and generally appears a far better bet.
C'mon, you're not going to scare me away from a debate citing stats like this: I read BP daily, too. As a stats guy, you should know that one year does not a good career make and over the course of their career, Milton is a shade above mediocrity and steady whereas Wright had one great year piled onto a mound of crap. I've gotta think that Wright's stats were his 90%+ PECOTA percentile. I'll be a believer when he strings together more than one year under the modern Einstein of pitching coaches. There are two likely scenarios for Wright: the Yankees are paying $7M a year for someone regressed slightly from last year or they're paying $7M a year for a steaming pile of stuff that Cleveland turned their noses up at. Cleveland?!? Milton will continue his league average pitching which makes his $8M about $4M more than he should be paid (very average pitchers tend to get in the $3-$5M range these days) but that's still a lot better than paying $7M for pre-2004 Jaret Wright.

SI

CentralMassHokie

12-29-2004, 10:37 AM

The Dodgers will be lucky to finish in third place this season and I would not be surprised if LA finished below San Diego, SF and Arizona.

Not gonna happen.

People grossly overrate Cora based on one close to average offensive season on a team and in a stadium where infield defense isn't nearly as important as it is elsewhere. Offensively, Kent/Perez over Cora should offset Beltre over Kent/Valentin nicely. Add in a full season from Choi, and the infield will be better offensively in 2005 than in 04. Defensively, it's a step down, but Cora to Kent is not nearly the drop people claim it is. Beltre to anyone is a drop, but again, infield defense isn't at a premium in Chavez Ravine.

They moved from Finley to Drew in the outfield. That's a pretty big upgrade both offensively and defensively, as Finley's lost more than a step and will certainly not be worth the money that he's pulling down up the street in Anaheim. The big question is obviously whether or not Werth will be healthy enough to play. With Chin, Ledee, Grabowski, and Werth combining for the 3rd/4th OF spot, the 2005 outfield will be better than the 2004 outfield, even without Green.

As I mentioned, they need to make a move to grab a starting pitcher. Derek Lowe wouldn't be a horrible guy, as he's likely to bounce back some from last year's atrocious season. Moving to the NL and moving to Chavez Ravine should put him in the 100-120 ERA+ area, which wouldn't be awful.

Jose Lima will again be a bust. We're talking about a guy who has bounced back to be .... league average. He's going to be 32 and simply isn't striking guys out at a rate that's conducive to continued success.

The Dodgers are obviously hoping that Edwin Jackson is ready to go this year.

Penny
Weaver
Lowe
Jackson
Ishii

That's not great, but it's not awful. Well, Ishii is awful when he's walking as many guys as he strikes out. That'd look a whole lot better with Odalis Perez. It's possible they're looking at a guy like Frank Brooks to fill in the bottom of the rotation, but more likely he's in the pen with Wilson Alvarez as dual swingmen.

The Dodgers need a starter and a catcher. They'll likely pick up one or the other through a trade. In the NL West, that should be enough to compete with the Padres for first.

The Giants have done nothing to improve their team. The Diamondbacks are going to be awful again, but they'll be slightly better for the 100 games Troy Glaus gets in.

Bomber

12-29-2004, 12:45 PM

Randy Johnson rumors are heating up again in New York. Newsday is reporting that the following deal is close to being done.

One Arizona source described remaining impediments as “mostly loose ends,” believed to include the amount of cash going to Arizona. It is thought the Yankees would send around $8 million - along with Vazquez, Navarro and Halsey.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/ny-spyanks294098934dec29,0,1919071.story?coll=ny-yankees-print

God let this happen.

Arles

12-29-2004, 02:04 PM

Randy Johnson rumors are heating up again in New York. Newsday is reporting that the following deal is close to being done.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/ny-spyanks294098934dec29,0,1919071.story?coll=ny-yankees-print

God let this happen.
Yeah, the Johnson for Vazquez, Navarro, Halsey and $8 mil seems like the most likely result. I also heard they may add in Eric Duncan and cut the cash to $5 mil in that case. Either way, it appears Arizona would then send Navarro to LA for Green. If Arizona can end up with Vazquez, Green, Halsey and $8 mil for Johnson, they should buy a lotto ticket. That's quite the talent coup and would end up costing about the same from a payroll standpoint (lose $16 mil plus the $8 mil in cash, gain $16 mil from Green and $9 mil from Vazquez).

Not bad for a team over the barrel with no leverage on trading a 41-year old with bad knees making $16 mil.

Crapshoot

12-29-2004, 02:17 PM

C'mon, you're not going to scare me away from a debate citing stats like this: I read BP daily, too. As a stats guy, you should know that one year does not a good career make and over the course of their career, Milton is a shade above mediocrity and steady whereas Wright had one great year piled onto a mound of crap. I've gotta think that Wright's stats were his 90%+ PECOTA percentile. I'll be a believer when he strings together more than one year under the modern Einstein of pitching coaches. There are two likely scenarios for Wright: the Yankees are paying $7M a year for someone regressed slightly from last year or they're paying $7M a year for a steaming pile of stuff that Cleveland turned their noses up at. Cleveland?!? Milton will continue his league average pitching which makes his $8M about $4M more than he should be paid (very average pitchers tend to get in the $3-$5M range these days) but that's still a lot better than paying $7M for pre-2004 Jaret Wright.

SI

I agree SI- but if you're the Reds, should you be paying $8.5 million a year to someone who's greatest season is average at best, or taking the $7 million injury shot (mind you Odalias Perez would have been better) with great upside ? I think Wright is probably going to be better than Milton- by far. I think if the Reds think they're getting an All-star, they ought to take the pitcher who's shown an ability to get there at least (and an ability to crash and burn)- Milton has been mediocre all his career. Its a boneheaded move by a boneheaded organization.

Arles

12-29-2004, 02:30 PM

Not gonna happen.

People grossly overrate Cora based on one close to average offensive season on a team and in a stadium where infield defense isn't nearly as important as it is elsewhere. Offensively, Kent/Perez over Cora should offset Beltre over Kent/Valentin nicely. Add in a full season from Choi, and the infield will be better offensively in 2005 than in 04. Defensively, it's a step down, but Cora to Kent is not nearly the drop people claim it is. Beltre to anyone is a drop, but again, infield defense isn't at a premium in Chavez Ravine.
What's the big excitement about adding in Choi to the LA lineup? The guy hit .161 in LA last season and had almost 100Ks in only 340 ABs. That LA lineup is going to be full of a lot of strikeouts with Choi (96 in 340), Drew (116), Bradley (123), Valentine (139), Kent (96), Werth (85 in 290) and Green (if they keep him). Add that none (save Drew) are even .290 hitters and you are going have a lot of quick innings on offense in LA.

And, again, trading Cora, Finley and Beltre for Kent, Bradley and Valentine is a big drop in defense. You are talking about losing two of the top defenders at their position (Cora, Beltre) and a very good defensive center fielder.

They moved from Finley to Drew in the outfield. That's a pretty big upgrade both offensively and defensively, as Finley's lost more than a step and will certainly not be worth the money that he's pulling down up the street in Anaheim.
I agree that Finley is overpaid in Anaheim, but the guy was a wizard in Arizona in 04 in CF. He had only three combined errors all season and it's not like he didn't have a lot of opportunities with that Arizona pitching staff in 04 :rolleyes: Drew is a good RF, but moving Bradley back to CF (8 errors in CF and LF in 04) is going to hurt the defense.

The big question is obviously whether or not Werth will be healthy enough to play. With Chin, Ledee, Grabowski, and Werth combining for the 3rd/4th OF spot, the 2005 outfield will be better than the 2004 outfield, even without Green.
I don't know, I would take the 04 Finley, Green and Bradley over Drew, Bradley and Werth - esp on defense. Offensively, it's closer to a push, but it's definately not better.

As I mentioned, they need to make a move to grab a starting pitcher. Derek Lowe wouldn't be a horrible guy, as he's likely to bounce back some from last year's atrocious season. Moving to the NL and moving to Chavez Ravine should put him in the 100-120 ERA+ area, which wouldn't be awful.

The Dodgers are obviously hoping that Edwin Jackson is ready to go this year.

Penny
Weaver
Lowe
Jackson
Ishii
If you can get Lowe for a decent deal (not the $40 million deal Boras wants), it will help. But Ishii and Jackson are big iffys and Lowe hasn't been signed. At this exact moment you have Jackson at No. 3, Ishii at No. 4 and either Alvarez or <shudder> Elmer Dessens at No. 5.

The Dodgers need a starter and a catcher. They'll likely pick up one or the other through a trade. In the NL West, that should be enough to compete with the Padres for first.
If the Dodgers go into a season with a lineup of Izturis, Werth, Drew, Kent, Bradley, Valentine, Choi, and Ross (as it appears right now), they are going to need some very good pitching. There's only one guy capable of a .290+ season in that lineup and a heck of a lot of Ks. The Dodgers best hope was to keep Green at 1B, sign Veritek and get Perez back in the rotation. Had they done those three, they would be in better shape. But right now, I see the Padres and Giants having better lineups and better staffs.

The Giants have done nothing to improve their team. The Diamondbacks are going to be awful again, but they'll be slightly better for the 100 games Troy Glaus gets in
I think the Giants have improved their 2005 team by adding in Alou, Vizquel, Matheny and Armando Benitez. Of course, I think they will be hurting in 2007 from these deals and the fact their average age will be 95, but it should pay off in 05.

As to Arizona, if the Johnson deal goes as expected and ESPN is right that Arizona will then move Navarro to LA for Green, Arizona will be a much better team than the one in 2004. Even without the RJ deal (and expect FA moves, this team should be better):

lineup - Counsell, Clayton, Gonzalez, Glaus, Green/Burnitz, Tracy, Terrero, Hill/Snider
pitching - RJ/Vazquez, Ortiz, Webb, Estes, Gosling/Villarreal

I would put that on par (maybe slightly less) with what the Dodgers have right now from a production standpoint.

CentralMassHokie

12-29-2004, 03:02 PM

You're worried far too much about batting average and strikeouts. As the Sox, Yankees, and Athletics have shown, OBP and SLG are what matter in scoring runs. In fact, I'm almost positive strikeouts correllated better with runs scored than did batting average in 2004, but I need to check that again (I ran the numbers a few months ago).

Choi, Drew, and Kent are all high OBP/high SLG guys. Valentin is a high SLG guy who came cheap. Choi was mashing the ball in Florida, got hurt, and never really settled in in LA. He'll be fine. He strikes out a lot, but he walks a lot too. That's what matters.

These are guys who get on base and drive in runs, even when their not getting seeing eye singles.

Cora and Izturis are middle of the road average guys who don't walk and don't drive the ball. If they're not getting their flares and texas leaguers, they're black holes at the plate.

As for the infield and outfield defense, pretty much every advanced defensive metric shows what you'd expect: 39 year old Steve Finley is no longer a great defensive centerfielder. Bradley and Drew are better defenders. There's no drop off. In 2004, Drew, Bradley, Green, and Werth all had higher EqAs than did Finley. Drew's better on both sides of the ball.

The pitching staff has holes. It's a long offseason. I'm not a Dodgers fan by any stretch of the imagination -- I'm a Red Sox fan. But the Dodgers have had a pretty good offseason without going financially crazy, which has been interesting to watch.

Any team starting an infield that includes Royce Clayton, Craig Counsell, and Chad Tracy/Shea Hillenbrand -- well they're going to have trouble scoring runs.

There's no way they're even close to the Dodgers on offense. And if Gonzalez continues his current decline, he's going to be pretty much league average.

The pitching staff could be strong - if they get Javy, I'm a huge fan. Ortiz is rapidly becoming mediocre -- he walks far too many guys. Webb had the same problem last year, which is troubling for a young pitcher who doesn't strike anybody out (though I think he'll bounce back this season). Estes is another mediocre guy.

Topping if off, they're pitching in a hitters' park.

It's going to be ugly in Arizona. U-G-L-Y.

San Francisco signed Benitez. Alou and Vizquel are barely upgrades on guys they've rotated through there recently. And they're still starting Michael Tucker.

If the season started today, I'd say Padres-Dodgers-Giants-Dbacks.

Bomber

12-29-2004, 03:14 PM

Yeah, the Johnson for Vazquez, Navarro, Halsey and $8 mil seems like the most likely result. I also heard they may add in Eric Duncan and cut the cash to $5 mil in that case. Either way, it appears Arizona would then send Navarro to LA for Green. If Arizona can end up with Vazquez, Green, Halsey and $8 mil for Johnson, they should buy a lotto ticket. That's quite the talent coup and would end up costing about the same from a payroll standpoint (lose $16 mil plus the $8 mil in cash, gain $16 mil from Green and $9 mil from Vazquez).

Not bad for a team over the barrel with no leverage on trading a 41-year old with bad knees making $16 mil.

I've got to believe that Navarro + something is in the works for Green. The article says the DBacks are interested in Navarro because his value has increased since the Dodgers expressed interest. However, Green is going to want an extension and Vazquez is going to demand a trade after the season.

Bomber

12-29-2004, 03:25 PM

Each year, Baseball Prospectus player projection guru Dr. Nate Silver runs all major league players through his patented prognostication program as part of the preparation for the annual BP book. The program, PECOTA, forecasts a likely statistical line for each and every player in the majors and high minors, then comes up with a list of comparable players from the past. The value of this exercise is that the fate of the comparables might provide some insight into the destiny of the player under discussion.
Carl Pavano's breakout season in the National League doesn't necessarily mean a repeat performance in the AL.

This year's projected PECOTA line for Carl Pavano: 174.7 IP, 4.64 ERA, 21.3 VORP. VORP stands for Value Over Replacement. It rolls all the player's contributions into one nice, works-across-baseball-history number. The number actually suggests how many runs the pitcher saved for his team over that of the theoretical replacement player. Twenty-one runs above replacement is not a lot of bang for Yankee buck.

Top comparables:

1. Clark, Mark
He was most notable for sharing the name of the U.S. general who managed the Anzio campaign in World War II. He wasn't very good at it. You could say the same thing about the baseball version who mixed good years with nightmares. He was out of the majors at 32.

2. Navarro, Jaime
Occasionally decent pitcher who famously imploded at 30 after moving from the Cubs to the White Sox in 1997, going 25-49 with a 6.32 ERA over the length of a contract that seemed to go on forever.

3. Bosio, Chris
No fun after age 30 due to increasing physical problems.

4. Burkett, John
He had excellent control but overall was largely mediocre. He had one exceptionally strong year, with the Braves at 36. He's the only pitcher in this top five to have a long career.

5. Wegman, Bill
Brewers control pitcher who never struck anyone out, he seemed to be rounding into a useful back of rotation type until Phil Garner had him pitch 261 2/3 innings in 1992. That was pretty much that. He was finished at 32.

You don't need PECOTA to arrive at a similarly cautious forecast for Pavano. You don't even need common sense or more than the most cursory knowledge of his performances. The magic words are, "Not a lot of strikeouts… Leaving a pitcher's park… Going to a DH league." It is inevitable that his ERA is going to bounce upwards. The only question is how high. PECOTA is pessimistic.

http://www.yesnetwork.com/yankees/news.asp?news_id=779

Bomber

12-29-2004, 03:29 PM

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/story/266209p-227984c.html

Although a gag order was in place with both teams, sources told the Daily News that Johnson informed a few of his Arizona teammates that he was going to the Yankees.

Yankee president Randy Levine and incoming D-Backs CEO Jeff Moorad spoke for the second time in two days yesterday, and there were two scenarios under consideration, according to sources.

Both possibilities involved the Yankees sending Javier Vazquez, prospects and cash to Arizona in exchange for Johnson, but the amount of money the Bombers would ship was contingent on the caliber of the minor leaguers.

In one proposal, the Yanks were to trade Vazquez, Brad Halsey, Abel Gomez and Melky Cabrera (lower-level prospects) for Johnson and include about $12 million to make up some of the difference in money owed to the 41-year-old ace ($16 million this season) and Vazquez ($35.5 million over the next three years).

The other proposal involved the Yankees moving Vazquez and higher-rated prospects Dioner Navarro and Eric Duncan for Johnson, while throwing in significantly less money - around $5 million - to complete the transaction. Once the deal is agreed upon, the Yankees then have to work out a contract extension for Johnson; according to sources, they were talking about adding two years to Johnson's pact at $16 million per.

The Diamondbacks were said to be prepared to accept the results of the physical Vazquez took for the Yankees at the conclusion of last season.

I'd rather give the extra $3 million and see how Duncan turns out. Also Cabrera is very highly rated among the Yankees lower-level prospects, I think he's 18 or so and plays CF.

sterlingice

12-29-2004, 03:29 PM

Any team starting an infield that includes Royce Clayton, Craig Counsell, and Chad Tracy/Shea Hillenbrand -- well they're going to have trouble scoring runs.
Anyone remember when Shea Hillenbrand was way too much to give up to get Byung-Hyun Kim? Yeah, no one else does either now, but that caused quite the ruckus at the time and where are both of those guys now?

SI

CentralMassHokie

12-29-2004, 03:50 PM

Anyone remember when Shea Hillenbrand was way too much to give up to get Byung-Hyun Kim? Yeah, no one else does either now, but that caused quite the ruckus at the time and where are both of those guys now?

SI

I thought Hillenbrand for Kim was a huge steal for the Sox. And it was, as the Sox wouldn't have gotten the Wild Card spot in 03 without Kim shoring up the pen.

Then he went all head-casey.

Still, he's better than Swing Away Shea.

WSUCougar

12-29-2004, 04:05 PM

:(
If the Yankees land Johnson and Beltran, and no one doubts they can, their payroll for 2005, as computed for luxury-tax purposes, will approach $225 million. That would be nearly $100 million more than the luxury tax threshold of $128 million for next season. As three-time violators, the Yankees would have to pay a 40 percent tax on that $100 million. As a result, the Yankees may end up owing nearly $40 million in luxury taxes alone next season, or more than the entire payrolls for several teams.
-- New York Times

Arles

12-29-2004, 04:41 PM

[QUOTE]You're worried far too much about batting average and strikeouts. As the Sox, Yankees, and Athletics have shown, OBP and SLG are what matter in scoring runs. In fact, I'm almost positive strikeouts correllated better with runs scored than did batting average in 2004, but I need to check that again (I ran the numbers a few months ago).

Choi, Drew, and Kent are all high OBP/high SLG guys. Valentin is a high SLG guy who came cheap. Choi was mashing the ball in Florida, got hurt, and never really settled in in LA. He'll be fine. He strikes out a lot, but he walks a lot too. That's what matters.
That may be true, but I see a lot of solo home runs in LA next season. The Sox, Yankees and Athletics have also had guys that get on base at the top of their order, and I don't see LA having those guys.

As for the infield and outfield defense, pretty much every advanced defensive metric shows what you'd expect: 39 year old Steve Finley is no longer a great defensive centerfielder. Bradley and Drew are better defenders. There's no drop off. In 2004, Drew, Bradley, Green, and Werth all had higher EqAs than did Finley. Drew's better on both sides of the ball.
The problem with your logic is that Finley played CF all last season, while none of Drew, Bradley, Green or Werth spent any significant time in CF. So, you are comparing apples and oranges. You are assuming that someone like Drew or Bradley would be as good as Finley in CF because they are decent corner OFs. Not always the best premise to make.

The pitching staff has holes. It's a long offseason. I'm not a Dodgers fan by any stretch of the imagination -- I'm a Red Sox fan. But the Dodgers have had a pretty good offseason without going financially crazy, which has been interesting to watch.
They spent almost twice as much money on JD Drew, Kent and Jose Valentin (combined $23 mil in 05) than they spent in all of 04 on guys like Finley, Cora, Beltre, Perez and Lima. Even if the money is equal, I don't see that as a fair trade from a talent standpoint. Now, they are talking about adding in Lowe for $8-9 million a season. They will have a significantly higher payroll in 05 with a worse team on the field. How is that a "pretty good offseason"?

Any team starting an infield that includes Royce Clayton, Craig Counsell, and Chad Tracy/Shea Hillenbrand -- well they're going to have trouble scoring runs.
Counsell had an OPB of .330, Clayton .338, and Tracy .343 in 04. They are also making a combined $3 mil for 05. I'd say that's pretty darn good value and a nice group of role-players to fill out the starting lineup behind the big boppers like Glaus, Gonzalez and others.

There's no way they're even close to the Dodgers on offense. And if Gonzalez continues his current decline, he's going to be pretty much league average.
In mid June, Gonzo was hitting .280 with 14 HRs. Then his elbow and shoulder went to hell and he was forced to shut down after July. If he's healthy (as he appears to be now), there's no reason to expect a big decline in his numbers. Remember, he had a better 2003 than 2002 and was on the way to even better numbers in 04 before the elbow really started to bother him.

The pitching staff could be strong - if they get Javy, I'm a huge fan. Ortiz is rapidly becoming mediocre -- he walks far too many guys. Webb had the same problem last year, which is troubling for a young pitcher who doesn't strike anybody out (though I think he'll bounce back this season). Estes is another mediocre guy.
A lot of Webb's walks were because of the poor infield defense in 04. Adding Glaus, Clayton, Counsell and moving Tracy to 1B will help there. Arizona led the league in errors and Melvin talked about this in a recent article. Because guys like Hillenbrand, Cintron and Hairston were booting balls last season, Webb lost a lot of outs (he's a ground ball pitcher). This forced him to stop relying on the defense and try to strike more people out - which meant more walks. I would expect that he will do much better in 04 as Melvin said he will be able to trust the defense. Ortiz wasn't the best signing, but he's been a winner.

Topping if off, they're pitching in a hitters' park.

It's going to be ugly in Arizona. U-G-L-Y.
It can't be much uglier than last season. I would be amazed if Arizona gets less than 75 wins with this current team, marking a 20+ game improvement.

If the season started today, I'd say Padres-Dodgers-Giants-Dbacks.
I'd go Giants - Padres - Dodgers - DBacks - Rockies. If Arizona gets Green and Vazquez, they will finish ahead of LA.

Arles

12-29-2004, 04:48 PM

I've got to believe that Navarro + something is in the works for Green. The article says the DBacks are interested in Navarro because his value has increased since the Dodgers expressed interest.
Yeah, I don't think Arizona is interested in Navarro unless they can move him.

However, Green is going to want an extension and Vazquez is going to demand a trade after the season
The proposed deal (back when the LA gig was still in place) was that Arizona would essentially rip up Green's current deal and sign him to a three-year $34 million deal (including 05). The end result is Green would make $12 mil in 05. Add in the $7-$8 million from the Yankees and the numbers for Green and Vazquez look a lot better. At to Javy, I expect the DBacks to call his bluff. If he really wants to demand a trade or walk away from $12 mil in 06 and $13 mil in 07 - I say let him walk. There's no way he will get that kind of money in FA. And I expect Arizona could find a FA pitcher for $12 mil a season that could equal Javy's production.

My guess is he will finish out his contract in Arizona without a peep if he indeed comes here.

Arles

12-29-2004, 04:53 PM

I thought Hillenbrand for Kim was a huge steal for the Sox. And it was, as the Sox wouldn't have gotten the Wild Card spot in 03 without Kim shoring up the pen.

Then he went all head-casey.

Still, he's better than Swing Away Shea.
Shea was a great guy for Arizona until they could get an upgrade like Glaus. Here's his numbers in 2004 (not bad value for a guy making $2.6 mil):

.310 - .812 OPS - 15 HR - 80 RBI and only 49 Ks.

Here's what Kim did (while making $3.5 mil):

2-1, 6.23 ERA in 17 IP

I think that deal was a major coup for the DBacks, especially since Kim would still be on the books in 05 had he stayed.

Bomber

12-29-2004, 05:19 PM

My guess is he will finish out his contract in Arizona without a peep if he indeed comes here.

I guess it'll depend on how he does in 2004 and how unhappy he is. I wouldn't walk away from that kind of money, but someone else might.

Bad-example

12-29-2004, 08:56 PM

Looking at the Giants offseason I will go into more depth since it is the team I follow the closest. I think the Giants have the horses to fight the Padres for the division title.

Starting Pitching:

Jason Schmidt
Brett Tomko
Jerome Williams
Kirk Reuter
Noah Lowry
Jessie Foppert
Brad Hennessey

That looks like a pretty good rotation to me. Schmidt is a true ace. Tomko has been a second half pitcher and was lights out down the stretch. Williams was sought after by other clubs this off season and that usually means a player is pretty talented. Reuter has been fading the last couple years but is a lefty and can still be a decent starter considering the run support he will get. Lowry was 6-0 in 14 starts. He has a nasty change up and will get every chance to win the 5 spot in the rotation. Foppert is one year removed from surgery. He and/or Hennessey might win a job in long relief or more likely start at triple-A. This rotation looks to be about the same as last year but with potentially more wins considering the improvement in the...

Relief Pitching:

Armando Benitez
Jim Brower
Matt Herges
Jason Christiansen
Scott Eyre
Tyler Walker
Jeff Fassero
Wayne Franklin
David Aardsma

Starting at the top, Benitez is a major upgrade for this team. Hermanson is gone and I am very sorry to see him go, but a full season with Benitez closing should have a positive effect on the whole pen. Brower is a solid set up guy but was over worked last season. Herges failed as a closer but might still be useful in the 7-8th innings. Christiansen and Eyre are quality lefties and Fassero could be ok if he makes the squad. Walker made 52 appearances and was a nice surprise. Frankiln and Aardsma are probably headed to the minors. Grabbing Benitez for 3 years/$21m addressed the Giants biggest weakness. The bullpen should be better in 2005.

Lineup:

SS Omar Vizquel
2B Ray Durham
1B J.T. Snow
LF Barry Bonds
RF Moises Alou
3B Edgardo Alfonzo
CF Marquis Grissom
C Mike Matheny

Deivi Cruz won the SS job last year and put up good offensive numbers. If Vizquel can put in a season of roughly equal value, then this move is still an offensive upgrade with Cruz becoming a great bench option. Durham has had trouble staying healthy but has been productive when he plays. Snow had a great second half after returning from injury and is unlikely to be that good again. Bonds is Bonds, and until he shows signs of slowing down I will expect him to be great. Alou makes RF more productive whether or not it helps Bonds see more strikes. Alfonzo always reports to spring training out of shape but is rumored to be taking his conditioning more seriously this year. I will believe it when I see it. Grissom is best suited to a bench role at this point but is currently the starter. Matheny is not as good a hitter as Pierzynski and was mainly brought in for his defensive skills. The starting lineup looks to be roughly as good as it was last year. Alou adds a dangerous bat but Matheny is a downgrade and age makes this lineup vulnerable to declining skills and injuries.

Bench:
Pedro Feliz
Deivi Cruz
Micheal Tucker
Yorvit Torrealba
Tony Torcato
Todd Linden

If the Giants can add a CF and push Grissom to the bench then I like this group better but this is still a versatile, deep bench. Feliz is a super utility guy with power. Cruz was a surprise last year and should be great in a reserve role. Tucker adds depth but is just a decent 4th or 5th outfielder. Torrealba is young and more praised for his catching than his hitting. Dustan Mohr was non-tendered for unexplained reasons. I have to believe he had some trade value but instead he is gone and that opens a spot for one of the young guys listed or possibly another player not yet on the roster.

The offense as a whole should again be one of the best in the league but with all the older players there is the scary possibilty that half the team could get injured and the other half start showing their ages. Even so, a finish in the top 5 in runs scored looks like a fair estimate.

The Defense:

The infield defense is better than last year at SS and C. Alfonzo plays a quality 3B as does his back up Feliz. Snow should still be above average even at age 37. Durham is the weakest infield defender and with Cruz, Alfonzo and Feliz his potential backups...well, don't look for great glovework at 2B this year. Adding a versatile role player that could play CF and 2B when needed would be ideal, but I would settle for trading for Eric Byrnes :) The defense in the outfield takes a double hit. Bonds and Grissom are one year older and Alou seems a risky proposition at right field in SBC park. While the Giants have a better overall defense than last year, their outfield defense would appear to be their biggest weakness.

This offseason the Giants found players that shored up their veteran team's biggest weaknesses. They did what they had to do (offer 3 years) to get the guys they targeted. This team is built for a 2 year run at a title while they have Bonds and Schmidt. With well-regarded pitching prospects Matt Cain and Merkin Valdez, Sabean will have the ammunition to make deadline deals come summer. If the season started tomorrow I would say 85-92 wins and a race to the division title with the Padres. If they stay healthy they have a shot to go deep into the postseason, especially if they find an upgrade at CF.

Arles

12-30-2004, 07:22 AM

According to the NY Times, the deal is Johnson to the Yankees for Vazquez, Brad Halsey, Navarro and $9 million. Then (supposedly) Navarro will be moved to LA for Shaun Green. So, the trade may end up being RJ for Javy, Green, Halsey and $9 million. I can live with that as a DBacks fan. But, we'll see how it looks by the time everything is finalized.

Ksyrup

12-30-2004, 08:08 AM

I hope they are getting some money from the Dodgers. I'd almost rather have Sammy Sosa for that money.

WSUCougar

12-30-2004, 08:57 AM

Heard a rumor this morning that the Cards will sign 2B Roberto "Spit Shine" Alomar. Interesting.

Lineup:

SS Omar Vizquel
2B Ray Durham
1B J.T. Snow
LF Barry Bonds
RF Moises Alou
3B Edgardo Alfonzo
CF Marquis Grissom
C Mike Matheny

No offense but this lineup (minus Bonds, of course) looks like something the Baltimore Orioles pieced together a few years back. Old and creaky. I think the Giants will be extraordinarily fortunate to see this lineup hold together for any significant stretch, and in my opinion all of these players are on the down side of their careers if not on the way out. Not trying to bust your chops, I just think you are being too optimistic about these guys.

Arles

12-30-2004, 09:04 AM

I hope they are getting some money from the Dodgers. I'd almost rather have Sammy Sosa for that money.
WHat I've heard is that Arizona will essentially rip up Green's final season and sign him to a new deal at 3 years for about $30 mil (including 05). $10 mil a year is probably a little much for Green, but if he gets .280 and 35-40 HRs as he projects in BOB if he's healthy, it's a market deal. Plus, with the $8 mil from the Yankees, Arizona would be getting Vazquez and Green for 3-4 mil less than Johnson (if you figure the new Green deal).

Arles

12-30-2004, 09:06 AM

No offense but this lineup (minus Bonds, of course) looks like something the Baltimore Orioles pieced together a few years back. Old and creaky. I think the Giants will be extraordinarily fortunate to see this lineup hold together for any significant stretch, and in my opinion all of these players are on the down side of their careers if not on the way out. Not trying to bust your chops, I just think you are being too optimistic about these guys.
I agree here as well. I do think that the lineup will hold up in 05, but the Giants may end up going from 90 wins in 05 to 80 in 06 to 70 in 07. They are pretty much putting all their eggs in a run for 05.

Crapshoot

12-30-2004, 09:17 AM

I agree here as well. I do think that the lineup will hold up in 05, but the Giants may end up going from 90 wins in 05 to 80 in 06 to 70 in 07. They are pretty much putting all their eggs in a run for 05.

I think it will go from 90 in 05 to 65 in 07 - and I say this as a Giants fanatic.

Ksyrup

12-30-2004, 09:41 AM

WHat I've heard is that Arizona will essentially rip up Green's final season and sign him to a new deal at 3 years for about $30 mil (including 05). $10 mil a year is probably a little much for Green, but if he gets .280 and 35-40 HRs as he projects in BOB if he's healthy, it's a market deal. Plus, with the $8 mil from the Yankees, Arizona would be getting Vazquez and Green for 3-4 mil less than Johnson (if you figure the new Green deal).
That wouldn't be so bad, but I've read that they'll be spinning Vazquez back to the East Coast (Orioles, maybe) for 2-3 guys.

Arles

12-30-2004, 11:22 AM

That wouldn't be so bad, but I've read that they'll be spinning Vazquez back to the East Coast (Orioles, maybe) for 2-3 guys.
Yeah, but according to the Arizona papers that would only be done at the trade deadline and if Vazquez was adament about voiding his contract if he doesn't get dealt (not sure how likely that is). All indications are they will have him on their opening day roster and try to convince him to stay out West - unless they get a great deal for him. And the paper doesn't seem to think there's all that great a deal for him available right now. The guys being talked about are some young lefty in Baltimore coming off two elbow surgeries, Randy Wolf or A.J. Burnett. I can't see AZ trading Vazquez for any of those right now.

Again, If Vazquez wanted to force a trade after the season and Arizona said "No", his options would be to keep playing and deal with it or walk away from a deal that would pay him $25 million over the next two seasons. I really can't see him doing the latter so I think it would be in everyone's best interest for him to finish out his contract in Arizona (if AZ doesn't want to trade him).

Bomber

12-30-2004, 11:47 AM

I'd trade Vazquez for AJ Burnett in a heart beat.

Ksyrup

12-30-2004, 11:50 AM

Vazquez is still an above-average - maybe still great - pitcher. He just might have gotten Kenny Rogers Syndrome last year. If he regains his form, Arizona will be in a prime position to deal him in July if he wants to leave.

dawgfan

12-30-2004, 03:19 PM

No offense but this lineup (minus Bonds, of course) looks like something the Baltimore Orioles pieced together a few years back. Old and creaky. I think the Giants will be extraordinarily fortunate to see this lineup hold together for any significant stretch, and in my opinion all of these players are on the down side of their careers if not on the way out. Not trying to bust your chops, I just think you are being too optimistic about these guys.

Or the Mariners - old lineups have the potential to fall off the cliff, as the M's found out last year. Bonds is amazing, but the rest of that lineup is iffy. Could be very good, could fall apart quickly.

Bad-example

12-30-2004, 03:52 PM

No offense but this lineup (minus Bonds, of course) looks like something the Baltimore Orioles pieced together a few years back. Old and creaky. I think the Giants will be extraordinarily fortunate to see this lineup hold together for any significant stretch, and in my opinion all of these players are on the down side of their careers if not on the way out. Not trying to bust your chops, I just think you are being too optimistic about these guys.

If they can stay relatively healthy I like their chances of scoring enough runs to contend. There is the scary possibility of a team wide fade but with their pitching I think they should be pretty strong in 2005.

Fonzie

12-30-2004, 10:40 PM

It appears the Cards are about to/have just signed Roberto Alomar.

Linky (http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/A4EEB0B0A5895ABE86256F7A001D3868?OpenDocument&Headline=Cards+sign+Alomar,+report+says)

Fonzie

12-30-2004, 10:41 PM

Dola-

If that report is accurate then I'd say at $500k and with a non-guaranteed contract Alomar certainly seems like he's worth a shot. Decent move by Walt.

Fonzie

12-31-2004, 12:37 AM

Double Dola-

Or not. It seems the previous report of Alomar's signing was premature, but is very much still a possibility.

Linky poo (http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/16A347F293635CA986256F7B001BA750?OpenDocument&Headline=Roberto+Alomar+deal+not+done,+team+says)

Arles

12-31-2004, 12:51 AM

YaY! The Giants have the oldest outfield in history...also look at the projected lineup in the field:

LF - Bonds - 40 years old
CF - Grissom - 37 yrs old
RF - Alou - 38
3B - Alfonso - 31
SS - Vizquel - 37
2B - Durham - 33
1B - Snow - 36
C - Matheny - 34

We might as well let the AARP sponsor our ballpark while we're at it.
Not to add insult to injury, but there was a wire story stating that the Giants had scouts watching 44-year old Fernando Valenzuela pitch in the Mexican league last week. :D

Sharpieman

12-31-2004, 12:53 AM

daedalus

12-31-2004, 04:10 AM

"This 7th inning stretch brought to you by Depends undergarment."

Yet, there's a decent likelihood that they'll be the most productive outfield in the NL West.

"Oh! That's another homerun into the Metamusil Bay by Bonds!"

sterlingice

12-31-2004, 10:05 AM

You know, I'm just going to flat out say it: the DBacks got raped for RJ. You have a team that's desperate to get your player almost to the point of insanity despite having no other competition and the best you can come away with it is Javy Vasquez and two decent but not even that good prospects.

Vasquez is easily the most interesting of the three as I think he's a good candidate for a comeback in the right situation, particularly out of the large market glare. I dunno, but he always struck me as one of those who would flop in NY. Then again, I keep seeing that the DBacks are looking to flip him for prospects elsewhere so any possible gain is negated there.

The other two aren't nearly as interesting as Halsey is most definitely a TNSTAAPP as his K/9 was pretty good but someone find this guy the plate: a walk more than once every three innings. And Navarro, while highly touted by the national media, looks a lot more the product of East Coast Hype (TM- patent pending) than anything as he hasn't hit much above A ball.

Then again, this deal is yet to be agreed upon. It's 98% done accorinding to the Yanks website but that doesn't mean much as it's been anywhere from "light interest" to "a done deal" so for all we know, it'll end up being Johnson, the newly inked Troy Glaus/Royce Clayon/Craig Counsell (because the left side of your infield can never be too full), the renaming of 'The Bob' to 'The George', 15 miles of Arizona oceanfront property for Javy Vazquez, Dioneer Navarro, Jason Giambi, 3 Yankees Stadium luxury boxes, $250M in cash, and the trinkets which Manhattan was bought for.

SI