While on the subject of 5.1a bugs...

[amdaily]

If Jim is going back into the code, I put forth yet another statistics study for consideration.

When the rushing averages were increased in 5.1, I also detected improved preformances from QB's, who had just finally been toned down for the 5.0 release in addition to RB's not being powerful enough in the red zone.

The following is league total numbers for passing and rushing TD's in the NFL and FOF.

From the data I've collected, there are not nearly enough rushing TD's and slightly to many passing TD's. The total number of points scored league wide also seems a bit off (see my post later in this thread; edit: added here too:).


Looking further at the issue, perhaps teams don't score enough in FOF (if we are looking solely at NFL 2004 numbers)

Average points per team in NFL 2004: 21.35

Average points per team in FOF in the past 3 seasons: 20.4, 20.3, 20.4

It doesn't seem like much, but 21.3 - 20.4 = .9 points per game per team

So, .9 * 16 = 14.4 * 32 = 460.8 / 6 = 76 missing TD's per year.

Perhaps if passing TD's were deflated just a tiny bit, say 10 per year, but rushing TD's were significantly increased, say by 70 TD's per year, we'd see 360 more points in each FOF season.

360/16 = 22.5/32 = .7 more points per game per team.

Passing TD's (NFL)

2004 (est): 720 ( Damn Manning messing up the averages ;) )
2003: 654
2002: 694
2001: 656
Average: 681

Passing TD's (FOF)

2011: 729
2010: 733
2009: 730
2008: 720
Average: 728

------------------

Rushing TD's (NFL)

2004 (est): 419
2003: 427
2002: 460
2001: 377
Average: 420

Rushing TD's (FOF)

2011: 354
2010: 365
2009: 345
2008: 360
Average: 356

[VPI97]

The passing game in FOF 2004 is coded to approximate 2004 NFL averages and beyond. The rule changes implemented for this NFL season are the reason you see passing numbers go up...and also the reason you see more productive passing in FOF in comparison to pre-2004 NFL.

[amdaily]

The passing game in FOF 2004 is coded to approximate 2004 NFL averages and beyond. The rule changes implemented for this NFL season are the reason you see passing numbers go up...and also the reason you see more productive passing in FOF in comparison to pre-2004 NFL.
I've heard that before, but looking at the 2004 numbers alone, we are along way from reality - especially in rushing TD's. 2004 is the worst rushing season in recent memory in the NFL, yet even the best FOF season can't touch it.

As for passing, 20 year records every season aren't going to fall every year; we'll probably see about 700-710 TD's per season with the new rule changes in the next few seasons. That said, even the worst passing years in FOF are above that average.

[CraigSca]

How is scoring dead-on when rushing TDs are so low? Are FGs out of whack?

[gstelmack]

I just don't see that as a sufficiently huge issue to worry much about. I suspect that since you're only looking at TDs, what I've noticed with FOF is that teams like to pass a lot when at the goal line. I get more rushing TDs simply by increasing my rushing percentage when near the goalline.

[Flame Eater]

ALSO...The other night I tried to trade a bunch of draft picks for one draft pick from another team. None of the other teams would bite. I mean I was giving away an entire draft to get one pick, and no one would take it. This isn't realistic. Has anyone ever done this.

[Maple Leafs]

I'd just like to point out that whenever a QB scrambles for a TD, there is no exclamation point in the play-by-play. Every other type of TD has the exclamation point. This bug has been around forever -- I can't believe the beta team didn't find it. Wake up guys.

If Jim doesn't fix it I will leave FOFC forever and never return.

[amdaily]

Looking further at the issue, perhaps teams don't score enough in FOF (if we are looking solely at NFL 2004 numbers)

Average points per team in NFL 2004: 21.35

Average points per team in FOF in the past 3 seasons: 20.4, 20.3, 20.4

It doesn't seem like much, but 21.3 - 20.4 = .9 points per game per team

So, .9 * 16 = 14.4 * 32 = 460.8 / 6 = 76 missing TD's per year.

Perhaps if passing TD's were deflated just a tiny bit, say 10 per year, but rushing TD's were significantly increased, say by 70 TD's per year, we'd see 360 more points in each FOF season.

360/16 = 22.5/32 = .7 more points per game per team.

[cthomer5000]

I'd just like to point out that whenever a QB scrambles for a TD, there is no exclamation point in the play-by-play. Every other type of TD has the exclamation point. This bug has been around forever -- I can't believe the beta team didn't find it. Wake up guys.

If Jim doesn't fix it I will leave FOFC forever and never return.
Is that actually true, BTW?

[Buccaneer]

I'd just like to point out that whenever a QB scrambles for a TD, there is no exclamation point in the play-by-play. Every other type of TD has the exclamation point. This bug has been around forever -- I can't believe the beta team didn't find it. Wake up guys.

If Jim doesn't fix it I will leave FOFC forever and never return.
Not only an exclamation point but adding a "Mr. Excitement!!" to the log as well. While he is at it, he should add three exclamation points whenever a QB heads downfield without ever looking to see if receivers are open.

:p

[Maple Leafs]

Is that actually true, BTW?
It actually is. Watch for it next time you're simming.

[VPI97]

Not only an exclamation point but adding a "Mr. Excitement!!" to the log as well. While he is at it, he should add three exclamation points whenever a QB heads downfield without ever looking to see if receivers are open.I'd pay extra for that.

[MIJB#19]

He should add three exclamation points whenever a QB heads downfield without ever looking to see if receivers are open.

:pIs that the Michael Vick bug I keep reading about?




But seriously, even as the game seems to be pass heavy friendly, stopping the run is (still) equally important in FOF. Pretty interesting, even if rushing were to be too low. (No, not giving proof, that would hurt my MP chances :))

[amdaily]

Is that the Michael Vick bug I keep reading about?




But seriously, even as the game seems to be pass heavy friendly, stopping the run is (still) equally important in FOF. Pretty interesting, even if rushing were to be too low. (No, not giving proof, that would hurt my MP chances :))
The total numbers of league wide rushes and rushing yards seemed to be correct, I'm just concerned about the distribution, especially in single player.

[Warhammer]

The problem with adjusting scoring in an MP league is that much of it can be due to group think. "Hmmm... This is a passing league, I need to pass to win, so I will scale back my running game, and bring the passing game up for this game."

Also, if many stud RBs went down in a particular season, that could lead to a general shortage of running TDs.

I would be interested to see how the IFL's TD numbers matched up with last years.

[MIJB#19]

Amdaily, so you say the yardage is all 'correct' but the touchdown difference in passing and rushing is out of balance?

Maybe defense give too easily yardage up outside the redzone, yet allow too many passing touchdowns in the red zone? Or myabe the game has too little long runs for a score? Have you nailed down the reason why teams are passing scores in rather than passing them in?

(Yeah, yeah, all are questions, but they are serious ones. I'm curious where you think the 'error' is created in-game.)

[amdaily]

Amdaily, so you say the yardage is all 'correct' but the touchdown difference in passing and rushing is out of balance?

Maybe defense give too easily yardage up outside the redzone, yet allow too many passing touchdowns in the red zone? Or myabe the game has too little long runs for a score? Have you nailed down the reason why teams are passing scores in rather than passing them in?

(Yeah, yeah, all are questions, but they are serious ones. I'm curious where you think the 'error' is created in-game.)
1. Total scoring is to low. It looks like by some 360-400 league wide points per year. But since we only have 13 games of the 2004 season to match things up with, its hard to tell for sure.

2. The passing TD's weren't as out of whack as I suspected (given the 2004 rule changes) although they appear a bit high. But rushing TD's are definetly off - by as much as 60 per year (league wide) according to my chart above.

3. Source cause: Total speculation here, but Jim has said things were chaged in 2K4 to reflect the rule changes (mainly more passing TD's). Could it be that TD's were just shifted from the rushing game to the passing game without taking into effect that league wide points would increase with the rules? (as they appear to be in the NFL this year)

3. Possible solution: Increase league wide scoring. Then on top of that, decrease the percent of scores though the air and increase scores on the ground. As I thought earlier, that could be an issue with the AI's red zone gameplan or something else all together. As you mentioned, longer runs could be mixed in here somewhere - no way to really track that though.

[MIJB#19]

Not to sounds like a jerk, but maybe the given sample is a bit too small to draw conclusions.

To get a realistic test, you might need to sim about 20 seasons or so to really get a feeling on how the distribution should be, not to mention that a single NFL season itself is a small sample. Just look at the difference between the years you provided. There seems to be no real standard, while the FOF stats you provided seem to say the game is in a way forcing the stats to reach for a certain average.

Like Warhammer wrote, it could all be based on how the contribution between passing and rushing oriented teams is. And the orientation itself can be based on the distribution of talent/skills between quarterbacks/running backs, passing/running oriented defenders, passing/running oriented blockers on offense, etc.

Just my 0.015 Euro.

[MikeVic]

One bug(?) I noticed while having my TV Tuner thing open in the background is the main image... I have no idea if you can fix it, or if you want to, or if it's considered a bug... but there was a pixel where I can see through the image, to the back. So when I have football on, there's always a pixel flashing from the TV. ;)

[Maple Leafs]

I'd just like to point out that whenever a QB scrambles for a TD, there is no exclamation point in the play-by-play. Every other type of TD has the exclamation point. This bug has been around forever -- I can't believe the beta team didn't find it. Wake up guys.

If Jim doesn't fix it I will leave FOFC forever and never return.Dammit! Curse you Jim.

I'll be over there, packing my bags.