NFL 4th Quarter Comebacks

[Senator]

Anyone know the, let's say, top 20, leaders in 4th quarter comebacks?

[fantastic flying froggies]

From the NFL.com website, here are the top 5 since 1995.

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" align=left border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1 vAlign=top><TD>Quarterback </TD><TD>Teams (1995-present) </TD><TD>Comeback Wins </TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=top><TD>Drew Bledsoe </TD><TD>New England, Buffalo </TD><TD>18 </TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=top><TD>Jake Plummer </TD><TD>Arizona, Denver </TD><TD>18 </TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=top><TD>Peyton Manning </TD><TD>Indianapolis </TD><TD>17 </TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=top><TD>Vinny Testaverde </TD><TD>Cleveland, Baltimore, NY Jets, Dallas </TD><TD>17 </TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=top><TD>Kerry Collins </TD><TD>Carolina, New Orleans, NY Giants, Oakland </TD><TD>15 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>









Link to original article: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/7731297

[Suicane75]

Not exactly the list that 1 would expect.

[wade moore]

Not to be a 'homer'.. but Peyton only played during half of those years too...

[rkmsuf]

That list invalidates the whole concept.

[Radii]

Is there still time to turn this thread around with the mention of Elway and Staubach, or is it doomed after that recent top 5 list?

[wade moore]

Is there still time to turn this thread around with the mention of Elway and Staubach, or is it doomed after that recent top 5 list?

Maybe would be nice to see per year since the merger?

[Senator]

I was hoping for an all time list. I know Elway has 40+.

[Maple Leafs]

Remember, to have a lot of 4Q comebacks, you have to have been losing a lot of games after 3Q.

[QuikSand]

Remember, to have a lot of 4Q comebacks, you have to have been losing a lot of games after 3Q.

ding ding ding


horribly misleading stat.

[rkmsuf]

Remember, to have a lot of 4Q comebacks, you have to have been losing a lot of games after 3Q.


Thanks I had forgotten that.

Actually, couldn't you have been leading going into the 4th, lose the lead, and then regain the lead?


It's kind of a meaningless stat.

[Maple Leafs]

Has anyone ever seen a stat that divided 4Q comebacks by total 4Q comeback situations? That could be interesting... see which QBs were most likely to lead a comeback when placed in the situation.

[QuikSand]

Has anyone ever seen a stat that divided 4Q comebacks by total 4Q comeback situations? That could be interesting... see which QBs were most likely to lead a comeback when placed in the situation.

Or, you could get the baseball sabermeticians on a case like this -- it's one of those rare circumstabnces where you probably have all the data needed to really say something.

Take a certain defined point -- like the start of the 4th quarter. Given a certain circumstance (maybe just the score, mabe more than that) and you ought to be able to calculate, over time, the likelihood of a given team winning. If you're -10 after 3 quarters, you ought to win only 12% of the time. If you're +7 after 3 querters, you ought to win 69% of the time. Stuff like that. That ought to give you a baseline.

Then, you ought to be able to plug in a QB, and based on the circumstances his team(s) faced after 3 quarters, there ought to be an expected number of wins from all those situations. See how many he actually won, and you'd have some sort of "4th quarter z-score" that might actually mean something.


and then we'd have to explain why Vinny Testaverde is the best of all-time...

[TazFTW]

From what I've seen,

Elway - 47
Marino - 37
Favre - 33 or 34*
Montana - 31

*It depends on how the stat is counted, if it means that the team was losing going into the fourth then Favre has 33. If it means that GB was leading in the 4th, lost the lead, and then went up again, he has 34.

I believe those are you Top 4. The problem with finding a list is that although Elias keeps track of 4th quarter comebacks, they don't publish a list (I have no idea why not).

Roger Staubach and Jim Kelly have 23

[Raiders Army]

I think that Jeff George deserves to be on the list.



j/k :)

[waitforit]

I think that Jeff George deserves to be on the list.



j/k :)

I always thought Jeff George got a bad rap. Give me him at his prime in FOF and I could win a bowl with him. :D