SuperBowl Bet

[CleBrownsfan]

Seems like a good bet:

First half score and final result of the game

3215 NE wins 1st half and game -180
3216 NE wins 1st half and Philly wins game +800
3217 Philly wins 1st half and game +250
3218 Philly wins 1st half and NE wins game +300
3219 1st half tied and NE wins game +1000
3220 1st half tied and Philly wins game +1500

[stevew]

What, does this actually mean tho?

[CleBrownsfan]

What, does this actually mean tho?


Moreless it goes like this -

+1000 = if you wager $100 you will profit $1000

-120 = you need to wager $120 and you will profit $100

[Desnudo]

A double tie bet sounds like an interesting gamble. Speaking of gambling, can anyone recommend a decent internet betting site with the Super Bowl on it?

[CleBrownsfan]

A double tie bet sounds like an interesting gamble. Speaking of gambling, can anyone recommend a decent internet betting site with the Super Bowl on it?

thegreek.com

that's where I do all my sports betting.

[TLK]

A double tie bet sounds like an interesting gamble. Speaking of gambling, can anyone recommend a decent internet betting site with the Super Bowl on it? Bodog.... quick payouts with a decent bouns, if you use the Internet check option...

[Desnudo]

Thanks guys. You can bet on anything, amazing.

[Desnudo]

2/6/2005 6:20 PM Total rushing yards by Donovan McNabb Player must play for action. Overtime counts towards wager. Official stats via NFL.com. Max wager is $500
1537 0 or worst yards +500
1538 1 to 7 yards +450
1539 8 to 14 yards +350
1540 15 to 21 yards +500
1541 22 to 28 yards +250
1542 29 to 35 yards +275
1543 36 or more yards +200


Am I missing something here? If you spread your bets, it seems impossible to lose money.

[Suicane75]

2/6/2005 6:20 PM Total rushing yards by Donovan McNabb Player must play for action. Overtime counts towards wager. Official stats via NFL.com. Max wager is $500
1537 0 or worst yards +500
1538 1 to 7 yards +450
1539 8 to 14 yards +350
1540 15 to 21 yards +500
1541 22 to 28 yards +250
1542 29 to 35 yards +275
1543 36 or more yards +200


Am I missing something here? If you spread your bets, it seems impossible to lose money.


Well, the highest return is $500, so if you bet $100 on all of them you will lose money. If you bet $100 on the top 3 and hit one of them you'll make $200 at most. If you bet $100 on the the bottom 3 you'll lose even if you win.

Yes, theres plenty of ways to lose money.

[rkmsuf]

How is that a good bet?

Having the first half end in a tie? What are the odds of that?

I know the payouts are good but how is it determined that this is particularly sweet?

[Desnudo]

Well, the highest return is $500, so if you bet $100 on all of them you will lose money. If you bet $100 on the top 3 and hit one of them you'll make $200 at most. If you bet $100 on the the bottom 3 you'll lose even if you win.

Yes, theres plenty of ways to lose money.

I thought it was 500-1. :) Oh well.

[Suicane75]

People like odds. They prefer to be able to make 10x on their investment than 1x or 2x.
Its human nature, and why the books make a killin.

[rkmsuf]

People like odds. They prefer to be able to make 10x on their investment than 1x or 2x.
Its human nature, and why the books make a killin.

I get odds but in this case nobody knows the odds of winning. They just know what they can win.

Maybe it's like 30-1 that the half ends in a tie. Plunking 100 on it to make 1000 is a terrible bet.

[QuikSand]

First half score and final result of the game

3215 NE wins 1st half and game -180
3216 NE wins 1st half and Philly wins game +800
3217 Philly wins 1st half and game +250
3218 Philly wins 1st half and NE wins game +300
3219 1st half tied and NE wins game +1000
3220 1st half tied and Philly wins game +1500

Setting aside what specific entry you might like... this is, essentially, a "field bet" where the house has set up an inherent takeout of about 30%. That's not awful, but certainly not all that attractive to me.

[Desnudo]

I get odds but in this case nobody knows the odds of winning. They just know what they can win.

Maybe it's like 30-1 that the half ends in a tie. Plunking 100 on it to make 1000 is a terrible bet.

I was thinking it was 1000-1 for some reason, even though it's clearly explained up top. I wouldn't take 10-1 that it'll be tied at halftime. I think 30-1 might be a bit low.

[Suicane75]

I just realized that until now I hadn't even had a though of betting the game. Odd how having your team in the game makes everything else seem irrelevant.

That being said I may plop some cash down on options 2 and 3.

[TLK]

I just realized that until now I hadn't even had a though of betting the game. Odd how having your team in the game makes everything else seem irrelevant.

That being said I may plop some cash down on options 2 and 3.
I think your best bet, is not to bet at all.....

[rkmsuf]

Hold on... think about this. Of all football games, long term, what percentage are tied at halftime? You can't be seriously arguing that the number is less than 5%. I'd guess that 15% is closer, maybe 20% or so -- just off the top of my head. it doesn't take a ridiculous string of weird events for a game to be 10-10 or 7-7 or whatever after two quarters. This is not some absurd outcome -- it's not like we're talking about the score being tied at 4-4 or something.

My point is I don't know the actual percentage therefore can't judge whether this proposition is good or bad.

I haven't a clue what the real data is.

[QuikSand]

Maybe it's like 30-1 that the half ends in a tie.

Hold on... think about this. Of all football games, long term, what percentage are tied at halftime? You can't be seriously arguing that the number is less than 5%. I'd guess that 15% is closer, maybe 20% or so -- just off the top of my head. it doesn't take a ridiculous string of weird events for a game to be 10-10 or 7-7 or whatever after two quarters. This is not some absurd outcome -- it's not like we're talking about the score being tied at 4-4 or something.

[Suicane75]

I think your best bet, is not to bet at all.....

Seriously, I know they'll be more appropriate threads, but I really think Philly is gonna light up that Patriots secondary all day.

[TLK]

after looking through about 160 prop bets.... I see one I like....

Wager is on the total pass completions in the game. Any player who completes a pass for team, counts towards wager. Overtime counts towards wager.

Under 41 Pass Completions +110

[sooner333]

I kind of like this one:

Wager is on if either team will convert a 4th down attempt into a 1st down. Conversion can happen by play on field, Penalty etc. Overtime counts towards wager. Game must go 55 minutes for action.

Yes
-165

[QuikSand]

What is the money line of the Pats winning, generally? I think if you work out the math here, you are implictly getting a money line of about -5000 on this particular wager. (You have to bet about $64+$25+$9 = $98 to guarantee a $100 payback on a Pats win) That's a fucking awful bet, we all would agree, right? So -- to overcome that kind of obstacle, you have to have really keen insight into who will be leading at the half. And how is this a more secure bet than the overall outcome?

Generally speaking, the more complicated the bet, the more screwed you get. From the house perspective, bettors who are attracted to bells and whistles and the like are reliable action players, and are generally insensitive to value in their wagering -- so why not shove it up their ass while you're at it? (Or put more nicely, why not charge them a suitable premium for allowing exotic and compex wagering options?)