ROad to the Roses - Fantasy Horseracing Contest, 2005

[QuikSand]

Once again, it's time for those of you with a fancy for horseracing, or just a fancy for fantasy sports... of hell, anyone just feeling a bit fancy ... to check out the "Road to the ROses" fantasy game:

http://www.roadtotheroses.com/

The idea is to pick a stable of horses from among the promising three year olds, and you'll gain points if they do well in the various "prep" races leading up to the Kentucky Derby, and in the Derby itself. You will also pick trainers and jockeys to gain points for you along the way.

I have not yet put much thought into this, but as I do, I wil be open with my thoughts. I have won minor prizes in this thing before, and I honestly think it's conceivabl that someone with a bit of study might be able to actualy place very highly in this thing, with a bit of thought invested.


Anyway, check out the site -- it's a fairly interesting game to play, and if you get some tips/thoughts from the racing fans around here, you might not have to do much of any new research of your own.

Enjoy!



...more to come...

[QuikSand]

One quick note -- there are a number of states which make you ineligible to win prizes in any contest like this, as I recall. (I live in one such state, but there are maybe a dozen listed on the site, I think) If you're playing for keeps, it might be worth the time to check it out... maybe your brother in Kentucky would rather play, if you get my drift. (Turns out my mom in Ohio is a bigger thoroughbred fan that anyone would have thought, since she has never seen a race to my knowledge)

[QuikSand]

One more thing -- the first races that count for the contest are on 2/12 -- meaning that for a full chance to score, you probably want your entry in by Friday, February 11th. If you want to wait until the bigger early Florida races, notably the Fountain of Youth, it's not until three weeks later -- a tough risk to take, I think, but might be defensible.

(Florida screwed up their timeline completely this year, unwisely I think)

[Franklinnoble]

Thanks for sharing this... I'm gonna check it out.

[rkmsuf]

Yay, maybe I can last in contention until after the Florida Derby just once.

[FishFan]

I have put a lot of thought into the early races this year and have come up with an early blueprint for my stable. There is a new wrinkle in this year's contest, two supplemental drafts. The first one is the week prior to 3/19 (before the Rebel, Fla. Derby, Wood, Ill. Derby, SA Derby etc.) and the second one is the week prior to 4/16 (before the Bluegrass, Ark. Derby, Lexington). With those dates in mind, I was able to keep a couple of horses I like out of my stable until 3/19. Here's what I am looking at right now:

Horses (trainer) - next race
RUSH BAY (Amoss) - Risen Star 2/12
HARLINGTON (Pletcher) - Risen Star 2/12
GALLOPING GROCER (Schettino) - Whirlaway 2/12
CONSOLIDATOR (Lukas) - San Vincente 2/13
KIRKENDAHL (T. West) - San Vincente 2/13
AFLEET ALEX (Ritchey) - Southwest 2/19
DECLAN'S MOON (Ellis) - Santa Catalina 3/5
GOING WILD (Lukas) - Santa Cataline 3/5
DEFER (McGaughey) - Fountain of Youth 3/5
BANDINI (Pletcher) - Fountain of Youth 3/5

The two horses that I like and will probably add prior to 3/19 are ROCKPORT HARBOR (running in the Rebel Stakes on 3/19) and HIGH FLY (running in Florida Derby on 4/2). HIGH FLY could end up in Dubai, which would promptly strike him from all consideration in my stable. I am still looking for next out dates for the following horses:

ANDROMEDA'S HERO (Zito) - placed 3rd in 7f ALW race at GP on 2/5, just behind of AROUND THE CAPE and SURVIVALIST
AROUND THE CAPE (Mott) - placed 1st in 7f ALW race at GP on 2/5, just ahead of SURVIVALIST, ANDROMEDA'S HERO
BUZZARD'S BAY - winner of the 1 1/16 Golden Gate Derby on 1/15
CLOSING ARGUMENT (McLaughlin) - winner of the 1 1/8 GIII Holy Bull on 2/5
DIAMOND ISLE (McPeek) - bred for distance? always been a McPeek fan
DON'T GET MAD (Ellis) - stablemate of DECLAN'S MOON; could add if go with Ellis as trainer
GIACOMO (Shirreffs) - so-so finishing 3rd in 1 1/8 Sham Stakes
HAL'S IMAGE (Rose) - like the breeding on this one (HALO'S IMAGE-MIA'S HOPE)
HIGH LIMIT (Frankel) - the only quality 3yo in Frankel's barn?
INDY STORM (Zito) - won a key maiden race at Calder on 12/31
KANSAS CITY BOY (McPeek) - solid run in LeComte, followed by tiring 2nd in Holy Bull
LOST IN THE FOG - won the 6f Sunshine Millions Dash on 1/29; not yet nominated to the Triple Crown
MAGNA GRADUATE (Byrne) - scratched from Holy Bull?
NOBLE CAUSEWAY (Zito) - impressive in 1 1/8 maiden win on 2/5
ONE SMART DEPUTY (Baffert) - possibly the top 3yo in Baffert's barn
PARK AVENUE BALL (Ryerson) - 2nd in the Hutcheson at GP on 2/5
PROUD ACCOLADE - winner of the 7.5f GII Hutcheson Stakes on 2/5; distance a question
SNACK (Lauer) - Indiana bred horse, a homer pick
SPANISH CHESTNUT (Biancone) - winner of the 1 mile GII San Rafael on 1/15
STORM SURGE - winner of the 1 mile GIII LeComte Stakes on 1/15
SUN KING (Zito) - wise guy horse who hasn't really won anything
SURVIVALIST (McGaughey) - finished a troubled 2nd in an ALW race this past Sat. McGaughey wants to run him back at a mile.
WILKO (Dollase) - I believe this horse has already peaked, but would like to see where he goes next

Trainers
Todd Pletcher
Nick Zito, D. Wayne Lukas, Ron Ellis, or Claude McGaughey

Jockeys
John Velasquez
Edgar Prado, Victor Espinoza, Mike Smith, or PVal or maybe Gary Stevens and can't forget Jerry Bailey or Pat Day and I've always been a fan of Tyler Baze

So, as you can see, I have some framework here, but I still have many decisions to make before Friday evening.

[FishFan]

Future Wager, pool 1

No. Horse Odds

1 Afleet Alex 12-1
2 Bandini 30-1
3 Closing Argument 20-1
4 Consolidator 20-1
5 Declan's Moon 6-1
6 Galloping Grocer 30-1
7 Giacomo 50-1
8 Going Wild 30-1
9 Greater Good 30-1
10 Harlington 20-1
11 High Fly 20-1
12 High Limit 30-1
13 Lost in the Fog* 30-1
14 Proud Accolade 12-1
15 Rockport Harbor 8-1
16 Roman Ruler 12-1
17 Rush Bay 50-1
18 Spanish Chestnut 20-1
19 Storm Surge 30-1
20 Sun King 30-1
21 Sweet Catomine (f) 20-1
22 Texcess 20-1
23 Wilko 30-1
24 All other 3-year-olds 3-1

[QuikSand]

This is a great help... I have hardly even looked yet, and time's-a-wasting.

[FishFan]

I was doing the research for the Future Pool and the prep races this weekend so I thought "what the hell". This is just one man's opinion, though. You may have noticed I didn't say much of anything about ROMAN RULER, one of the best 2yos from last season. I'm leaning toward completely throwing him out of my barn this year.

[FishFan]

Here is an update on some next starts for some top horses. I also found out that AFLEET ALEX will skip the Southwest and is pointed towards the Rebel on 3/19 which frees up a spot in my initial 10-horse stable.

ANDROMEDA'S HERO (Zito) - no clue
AROUND THE CAPE (Mott) - no clue
BUZZARD'S BAY (Mullins) - Risen Star 2/12
CLOSING ARGUMENT (McLaughlin) - FoY 3/5
DIAMOND ISLE (McPeek) - no clue
DON'T GET MAD (Ellis) - San Vincente 2/13
GIACOMO (Shirreffs) - Santa Catalina 3/5 or San Felipe 3/19
HAL'S IMAGE (Rose) - no clue
HIGH LIMIT (Frankel) - Swale 3/5
INDY STORM (Zito) - no clue
KANSAS CITY BOY (McPeek) - no clue
LOST IN THE FOG - Swale 3/5
MAGNA GRADUATE (Byrne) - no clue
NOBLE CAUSEWAY (Zito) - no clue
ONE SMART DEPUTY (Baffert) - no clue
PARK AVENUE BALL (Ryerson) - no clue
PROUD ACCOLADE - FoY 3/5
SNACK (Lauer) - this one could head to Oaklawn or Fairgrounds; total speculation
SPANISH CHESTNUT (Biancone) - Santa Catalina 3/5
STORM SURGE - Risen Star 2/12
SUN KING (Zito) - Swale 3/5
SURVIVALIST (McGaughey) - unsure, possibly a mile race (another ALW?)
WILKO (Dollase) - Santa Catalina 3/5

I may restructure my barn to take less horses running in the opening weekend to target later races like the FoY. The Swale is also an intriguing race, but at only seven furlongs, the winner may not be suited for the Derby.

With time running out, I am no closer to a final decision than I was several days ago. However, I am likely going with Nick Zito as my other trainer alongside Pletcher and Edgar Prado as my second jockey with J. Velasquez.

[FishFan]

Okay, after more deliberations and research, I think I have finalized my stable for the opening weekend. Hopefully, I have spread myself out enough to pick up points on all the major weekends and the major circuits. The two horses that are not set in stone are DON'T GET MAD and SUN KING, who could be replaced by other possible runners in the San Vincente and Swale, respectively, if I change my mind.

HARLINGTON (Pletcher) - Risen Star 2/12
RUSH BAY (Amoss) - Risen Star 2/12
GALLOPING GROCER (Schettino) - Whirlaway 2/12
CONSOLIDATOR (Lukas) - San Vincente 2/13
DON'T GET MAD (Ellis) - San Vincente 2/13
DEFER (McGaughey) - Fountain of Youth 3/5
BANDINI (Pletcher) - Fountain of Youth 3/5
DECLAN'S MOON (Ellis) - Santa Catalina 3/5
GOING WILD (Lukas) - Santa Catalina 3/5
SUN KING (Zito) - Swale 3/5

Notes: What am I doing taking two Lukas horses? He'll run both into the ground before the Derby, but if I pick up some points along the way, I'll be happy. Many of these horses will probably not make the Derby. I could see DEFER, HARLINGTON, GALLOPING GROCER, BANDINI, and DECLAN'S MOON in the starting gate, but the others are question marks. Again, I'm hoping they hang around the trail long enough to pick up some points. More solid Derby candidates will be added in March and April, likely from the following group:

AFLEET ALEX (Ritchey) - Rebel 3/19
GIACOMO (Shirreffs) - Santa Catalina 3/5 or San Felipe 3/19
HIGH FLY - Florida Derby 4/2
NOBLE CAUSEWAY (Zito) - ALW next, then Fla Derby 4/2
ROCKPORT HARBOR (Servis) - Rebel 3/19

If NOBLE CAUSEWAY shows anything in his next allowance race, he'll be a lock for my stable. I really like this horse and love his breeding (GIANT'S CAUSEWAY). I'm not sold on HIGH FLY, so AFLEET ALEX and ROCKPORT HARBOR could be the other two picks right now, although I may go with GIACOMO if he's pointed to the San Felipe, just to steal the points for that race. Many of the big West Coast runners will be running on March 5th and will skip the San Felipe.

Finally, I will keep my eye on SNACK and SURVIVALIST and others that I left out of my initial stable that are running this weekend, including:

STORM SURGE (Stewart) - Risen Star 2/12
BUZZARD'S BAY (Mullins) - Risen Star 2/12
KIRKENDAHL (T. West) - San Vincente 2/13
ROMAN RULER (Baffert) - San Vincente 2/13
HIGH LIMIT (Frankel) - Swale 3/5
LOST IN THE FOG (Gilchrist) - Swale 3/5

I think my trainers will be Todd Pletcher and Nick Zito, both of whom have a good chance of having multiple runners in the Derby and I'll take the two jockeys who ride "first call", John Velasquez and Edgar Prado.

[QuikSand]

Here's my first cut at a pretty vanilla stable setup:

(1) AFLEET ALEX
(2) ANDROMEDA'S HERO
(3) CONSOLIDATOR
(4) DECLAN'S MOON
(5) GIACOMO
(6) HARLINGTON
(7) HIGH LIMIT
(8) ROMAN RULER
(9) SPANISH CHESTNUT
(10) SUN KING

(1) Edgar Prado
(2) Jerry Bailey

(1) Bobby Frankel
(2) Nick Zito


I'm now toying with dropping GIACOMO to add in a horse who is a more likley runner this weekend, even though I like GIACOMO enough to include him in my stable. Ugh. I wish I had put a little more time into this...

[QuikSand]

By the way -- if you might be interested in this sort of thing, there are some nice "shortcuts" this year -- you can just pull up some experts' lists, and have your entire stable selected randomly from their extended picks. Makes for a pretty painless way to play.

[FishFan]

FYI, AFLEET ALEX is skipping the first prep at Oaklawn which means he won't run until after the first supplemental draft, which is why he is not in my stable. I also like ANDROMEDA'S HERO but I don't know where his connections are pointing him, so I couldn't add him at this time. He's also coming out of an ALW race where SURVIVALIST was probably the best if he weren't interefered with and looked like he would love added distance. I'm keeping my eye on both of those runners for future races. I pussed out and dropped CONSOLIDATOR and added ROMAN RULER to my stable. My disdain for Baffert was getting in the way of building an objective stable. So, my final list looks like this:

HARLINGTON (Pletcher) - Risen Star 2/12
RUSH BAY (Amoss) - Risen Star 2/12
GALLOPING GROCER (Schettino) - Whirlaway 2/12
ROMAN RULER (Baffert) - San Vincente 2/13
DON'T GET MAD (Ellis) - San Vincente 2/13
DEFER (McGaughey) - Fountain of Youth 3/5
BANDINI (Pletcher) - Fountain of Youth 3/5
DECLAN'S MOON (Ellis) - Santa Catalina 3/5
GOING WILD (Lukas) - Santa Catalina 3/5
SUN KING (Zito) - Swale 3/5

Pletcher, Zito
J. Velasquez, Prado

[Raven Hawk]

I haven't filled out my stable yet, but so far I've got this:

ROMAN RULER
DECLAN'S MOON
WILKO
GALLOPING GROCER
HIGH LIMIT
HARLINGTON
GREATER GOOD
SUN KING
CONSOLIDATOR
???

Pletcher, Lukas
J.Velazquez, ???

[QuikSand]

If I sub in GOING WILD for either AFLEET ALEX or GIACOMO, then I am pracically duty bound to use Lukas as one of my trainers, don't you think? (I'd hav two Lukas horses in the stable, along with CONSOLIDATOR, who is non-negotiable) I suspect I'll drop Zito, but it pains me to do so.

[FishFan]

I thought about that, too, when I had CONSOLIDATOR in there, which may have been one of the deciding factors in eliminating CONSOLIDATOR for ROMAN RULER. Zito has too many contenders to leave out. I think NOBLE CAUSEWAY and ANDROMEDA'S HERO could be winners of late preps while Zito still has SUN KING and INDY STORM running early (among others). I kind of avoided the common horse/trainer rule this year (I have two Ron Ellis entries in my stable) and, instead, chose to go with trainers who are more likely to win multiple preps with multiple horses, Zito and Pletcher being the most likely to do so.

[Raven Hawk]

I thought that Pletcher was an obvious choice, based on the number of entries that he had. I went with Lukas to cover my West Coast interests. I'll probably go with a west coast jockey for my second jockey, the reason that I want to cover the west coast well is that I noticed that Santa Anita has quite a few graded stakes races that score bigger in this game.

[Raven Hawk]

1) ROMAN RULER
2) DECLAN'S MOON
3) WILKO
4) GALLOPING GROCER
5) HIGH LIMIT
6) HARLINGTON
7) GREATER GOOD
8) SUN KING
9) CONSOLIDATOR
10) SCRAPPY T

1) Pletcher
2) Lukas

1) J.Velazquez
2) V.Espinoza

Well I decided to take two shots at the crown, one with the Consolidator/Espinoza/Lukas combo and one with the Pletcher/Velazquez/Harlington combo. Hopefully those horses will do well. If they do, I'll have a shot. If not, I'm toast. I also like Rockland Harbor and Afleet Alex, but I figure that I can pick them up in the first expansion before they race on 3/19. Good luck everybody!

[FishFan]

Well, that was fun.

[Raven Hawk]

Can I have a do-over? :)

[FishFan]

I salvaged five points in the San Vincente to "vault" me into the top 1/3 of the contest field. Only 10 points separate me from the top 250, so maybe not all is lost. Hopefully, runners like HARLINGTON and GALLOPING GROCER "needed" a race and DON'T GET MAD was a nice rallying second to long shot FUSACHI ROCK STAR in the San Vincente. RUSH BAY is the only runner of mine from this weekend that I could see not getting another shot in the next round of preps.

[QuikSand]

I can testify that nearly half of the entries, including mine, have zero points as of right now. Woo hoo!

[Raven Hawk]

I can testify that nearly half of the entries, including mine, have zero points as of right now. Woo hoo!
I've got you by 1 pt. :)

[FishFan]

Well, I jumped into the top 1500 with today's races. BANDINI, DECLAN'S MOON, and GOING WILD all scored points for me as well as Zito and Prado. I liked what I saw from BANDINI. He had a nice stalking trip, woke up in the stretch and was really going after HIGH FLY at the wire. I think he can go forward from his 2nd place finish in the FoY and will like more distance.

After the 12th of this month, I'll add three horses, probably AFLEET ALEX, ROCKPORT HARBOR and NOBLE CAUSEWAY. The latter won an allowance race today in strong fashion and looks like a nice, solid horse. I'm also anxiously awaiting DON'T GET MAD's next start. He was a rallying 2nd to FUSAICHI ROCK STAR in the San Vincente and should improve in his next start.

The negatives: HARLINGTON is off the Derby trail with an injury and RUSH BAY has not looked good in two races. DEFER was also a disappointment today in the FoY.

I'm 10 points away from the top 200.

[FishFan]

If any one cares, I added three runners to my stable this week: AFLEET ALEX, ANDROMEDA'S HERO, and NOBLE CAUSEWAY. I was planning on taking ROCKPORT HARBOR, but his trainer has been hesitant to commit him to the Rebel Stakes and it's just a grade 3 race. If he has a good showing, he won't race again until after the next supplemental draft. Also, I had five horses already running this week, representing all four scoring races with two runners in the G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita, the highest scoring race this weekend.

Here's what I have this week:

AFLEET ALEX, G3 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park
DON'T GET MAD, G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita
GALLOPING GROCER, G3 Gotahm at Aqueduct
ROMAN RULER, G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita
SUN KING, G3 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs

I chose to add ANDROMEDA'S HERO because I think he can score a win in the G2 Lane's End at Turfway Park on March 26th, which is where Zito has him pointed. That leaves me covered in all graded scoring races from now until at least the Illinois Derby on April 9th with at least two runners in the G1 Florida Derby (BANDINI and NOBLE CAUSEWAY). I should also have as many as three runners for the G1 Santa Anita Derby (GOING WILD, DON'T GET MAD, and ROMAN RULER). Of course, some of those runners may choose the Illinois Derby or Wood Memorial, as well.

This weekend and picking up points in that G2 race at Turfway Park the following week could vault me near the leaders.

[QuikSand]

I am way in the distance in this. Have racked up some points, but only with obvious horses -- so I'm only gaining on the people who have given up, I suspect.

[QuikSand]

I actually had a very good weekend, with three stakes wins vaulting up to the top 10% or so, with 70 points.

How do you look, Fish? Doesn't look like you hit too well this weekend... only one winner, correct?

[QuikSand]

Here's the field for the third round of future wagers -- gives a decent feel for where the conventional wisdom lies as of now, I think:

- - - - -


2005 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3 Morning Line Odds
Program Horse Name Morning Line Odds
1 Afleet Alex 15-1
2 Bandini 15-1
3 Bellamy Road* 20-1
4 Blues and Royals* 15-1
5 Closing Argument* 30-1
6 Consolidator 10-1
7 Don't Get Mad 30-1
8 Flower Alley* 30-1
9 Galloping Grocer 30-1
10 Giacomo 30-1
11 Going Wild 15-1
12 Greater Good 15-1
13 Greeley's Galaxy* 50-1
14 High Fly 8-1
15 High Limit 10-1
16 Noble Causeway 12-1
17 Pavo* 50-1
18 Rockport Harbor 15-1
19 Sun King 10-1
20 Survivalist* 30-1
21 Sweet Catomine(f) 10-1
22 Wild Desert* 30-1
23 Wilko 20-1
24 All Other 3YO's 12-1

[QuikSand]

The race in Dubai won by BLUES AND ROYALS above was visually impressive, but it's always tough to judge how good the Godolphin horses are. He will definitely be coming stateside for the Derby, and if the future odds hang in that range, he might get some of my money.

In a year where there doesn't seem to be a dominating favorite, it might be the best chance yet for the Godolphin stables to land their coveted Derby win.


I also think that AFLEET ALEX may well go up from the 15-1 mark, and if so, he might become a nice value pick. The future betting often overvalues the horse's last race -- and his wasn't so hot, But supposedly, he is recovered from an infection, and running very well now. Could be a value play.


I think SURVIVALIST is worth a look at a big price like that. 30 sound good, 50 gets my money, probably.

[QuikSand]

With the Derby coming up this weekend, my stable has squeaked close to the overall top 1,000 -- but almost certainly not withint striking distance of winning any of the prizes.

Here's my status:

My Stable: QuikSand Ranch
My Total Points
as of 04/30 My Ranking
170 1117 out of 24163

My Active Horses
1) AFLEET ALEX
2) BANDINI
3) HIGH FLY
4) HIGH LIMIT
5) SUN KING

My Non-Active Horses
1) BLUES AND ROYALS
2) CONSOLIDATOR
3) DECLAN'S MOON
4) DEFER
5) GIACOMO
6) HARLINGTON
7) PROUD ACCOLADE
8) ROCKPORT HARBOR
9) ROMAN RULER
10) SURVIVALIST


My Jockeys
1) Edgar Prado
2) Jerry Bailey


My Trainers
1) D. Wayne Lukas
2) Todd Pletcher

- - -

With CONSOLIDATOR pulling out, that eliminates my last chance for an oddball double-up (he's trained by Lukas) that might have leapt me past a lot of people ahead of me. At this point, I doubt I have anyone on my list who is very unusual... indeed, without BELLAMY ROAD on my list )I went with the now-scratched BLUES AND ROYALS instead) I'm already up against the likely favorite.


And the two horses I'm currently sizing up as possible value plays, NOBLE CAUSEWAY and CLOSING ARGUMENT, are both off my stable list. Alas.