Oh geez.. here we go again (another Indonesian quake!)

[SirFozzie]

CNN.com reports:

Earthquake measuring 8.2 reported off coast of Indonesia on same fault line as quake that caused December’s deadly tsunami. Details soon.

[Blackadar]

Just saw this...I can't imagine...

[JeeberD]

Uh oh... :(

[WSUCougar]

Holy crap.

[Qwikshot]

I would head for high ground now...I am hoping these people are being contacted in a far better way than last time.

[Ksyrup]

What did the last one measure?

[Qwikshot]

What did the last one measure?

8.6?

[Ksyrup]

I just did a quick google, and I think the last one was around 8.9.

[SirFozzie]

(from the Wiki report on the prior earthquake)

The earthquake was initially reported as 6.8 on the Richter scale. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) also estimated it at 8.5 shortly after the earthquake. On the moment magnitude scale, which is more accurate for quakes of this size, the earthquake's magnitude was first reported as 8.1 by the US Geological Survey. After further analysis, this was increased to 8.5, 8.9, and 9.0 (USGS, 2004, [4] (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqsww/Quakes/usslav.htm)). In February 2005, some scientists estimated it was actually 9.3, but the USGS has so far not changed its estimate of 9.0 (McKee, 9 Feb 2005, [5] (http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn6991)).

[Ksyrup]

BTW, I just found this. Not sure how relevant it is here, if it hit along the same fault line. This is pointing to one not underwater:


Public release date: 16-Mar-2005
[<SCRIPT language=javascript type=text/javascript><!--document.write('Print Article (javascript:printWindow()) ');// --></SCRIPT> Print Article (javascript:printWindow()) | E-mail Article (http://www.eurekalert.org/emailrelease.php?file=uou-usi031605.php)<SCRIPT language=javascript type=text/javascript><!--document.write(' | Close Window (javascript:window.close())');// --></SCRIPT> | Close Window (javascript:window.close()) ]

Contact: David Young
[email protected] ([email protected])
44-28-90-366-178
University of Ulster (http://www.ulst.ac.uk/)

UU scientists issue Indonesia earthquake warning



The stresses in the earth's crust which have resulted from the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake have significantly increased the risk of another large earthquake in the already-devastated Indonesian island of Sumatra, according to new research findings by scientists from the University of Ulster's School of Environmental Sciences.


According to their calculations, published in this week's edition of leading scientific journal Nature, the Christmas 2004 earthquake which generated the massive tsunami which hit Indonesia, Thailand, India and Sri Lanka and killed 300,000 people, has significantly increased the stress on two other fault zones in the area - one of them running directly under the city of Banda Aceh which was so badly effected by the Boxing day event - the other under the sea off the west coast of Sumatra.

The latter could generate another tsunami.

The University of Ulster team, led by Professor John McCloskey of the School of Environmental Sciences, analysed data from the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake to look at its impact on other faults in the area. The analysis process is described in the Notes For Editors below.

The analysis found two zones showing significantly increased levels of stress - one in the Sunda trench, a 50km-long underwater zone off the northern tip of Sumatra, and the other in the Sumatra fault, which runs for 300km along the centre of the island of Sumatra, ending under the city of Banda Aceh.

"Our results show a stress increase of up to 5 bars in the Sunda trench next to the rupture zone, and a strong positive loading of 9 bars for 300km of the Sumatra fault," said Professor McCloskey.

These levels of seismic stress indicate significantly increased risk of an earthquake, said Professor McCloskey. Previous work on the earthquakes on the Sunda trench show that it has produced large (up to M8.5) earthquakes and two in 1833 and 1861 produced fatal tsunamis.

An earthquake in the Sumatra fault might be expected to have a magnitude up to about M7.5, but because it is not underwater, would not cause a tsunami.

"We have all heard that lightning does not strike twice in the same place -but earthquakes do' he said. 'One of the strongest observations in seismology is that earthquakes cluster in space and time. Where you have one earthquake you are likely to have others."

How sure are we that another event will occur? "We do know that the increase in stress is real and that ultimately it is stress that causes earthquakes. This much is sure. There is a strong relationship between these results and the probability of another earthquake in Indonesia.

"Unfortunately, we do not yet know how this relationship works out in detail. The mapping is certainly not one-to-one.' said Professor McCloskey.

But we can learn a lot from other examples, he said.

"The recent destructive earthquake at Izmit in Turkey (magnitude 7.4) was probably triggered by stress increases of less than two bars over an area of about 50km. It in turn triggered another earthquake (magnitude 7.1) at Düzce, just three months later. Again, the stresses were on the order of a couple of bars. Our calculations show that the stresses on the Sumatra fault increase to about 9 bars near the city of Banda Aceh. The stress remains positive for about 300 km to the south. These stresses are big and extensive," he said.

In the wake of their findings, the UU team have added their voices to the calls for a tsunami early-warning system to be put in place in the Indian Ocean as a matter of urgency. "The loss of much of the life in the December earthquake was avoidable. The science is well understood, the warning systems are in place in the Pacific region The levels of preparedness, public awareness and education in this region are high and do save lives. Unfortunately the people of the Indian Ocean region have neither benefited from this knowledge nor from the available technology," said Professor McCloskey.

"Our results indicate unambiguously that there is a real danger of another earthquake in the region. It is vital that disaster fatigue does not delay the implementation of the Circum Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System." Recent information indicates that the German government has allocated €40m to putting this system in place.

[Qwikshot]

In other words, run for the hills.

[Galaril]

I an not the most religious person but I got to say God bless those and anyone effected by this.

[Ksyrup]

I just heard it was at a depth of 19 miles, and it was definitely under the ocean again.

Worst part is, this occurred at 11pm their time, which may save some people who might have been on the beach during the day, but if it goes inland very far, a lot of people are screwed. :(

[Cringer]

I an not the most religious person but I got to say God bless those and anyone effected by this.

word

[Ksyrup]

(CNN) -- An earthquake measuring a preliminary magnitude of 8.2 struck off the coast of Indonesia Monday -- on the same fault line that originated a December 26 earthquake that launched a deadly tsunami.

The director of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said scientists there feared another tsunami might hit the area.

Charles McCreary said he could not be certain that the quake, which was 30 km deep and 203 kilometer (126 miles) from Sibolga on Sumatra Island, would cause a tsunami.

"There is a potential for some wave activity," said Julie Martinez, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Information Center, in Golden, Colo.

The quake occurred at 1109 ET (1609 GMT), and is considered a "great" earthquake, the largest of seven grades.

The grades are very minor, minor, light, moderate, strong, major and great.

Tsunamis are distinguished from normal coastal surf by their great length and speed. A single wave in a tsunami series might be 160 kilometers (100 miles) long and race across the ocean at 960 kph (600 mph).

When it approaches a coastline, the wave slows dramatically, but it also rises to great heights because the enormous volume of water piles up in shallow coastal bays.

On December 26, a 9.0-magnitude quake triggered a massive tsunami that devastated Asian and African coastlines in nearly a dozen nations, killing at least 175,000 people.

[tanglewood]

Just saw on TV that the Pacific Warning Authority have upgraded it to an 8.5 and are recommending evacuations.

[Lathum]

unreal

[CamEdwards]

any idea how long it took for the tsunami to hit after the first quake?

[Franklinnoble]

Damn. I know people over there right now doing missions work to help them recover from the last one. :(

[Lathum]

any idea how long it took for the tsunami to hit after the first quake?
I think it was about 10 hours

[EagleFan]

Wasn't it around 2-3 hours? I think.

[EagleFan]

My thoughts and prayers for everyone in that area.

[Galaril]

It was a very short time just a few hours for it to hit .

[tanglewood]

It should be hitting Sumatra around now, maybe another 2 hours before it hits Thailand and other Indonesian regions, probably at least 8 until it reaches Sri Lanka and India.

The big problem is that it is near midnight in Indonesia. Warnings are going out on tv and radio, but the majority of people are sleeping so won't get the news. The 'air raid warning' sirens that were proposed after the first quake won't be in place for another year or two.

[Fidatelo]

The news reports keep saying that it "may" spark a tsunami. I'm thinking, wouldn't it have to? It's in the same spot, close to the same size. From what I learned about tsunami's after the last one, it would seem to me that it is enivitable. Anyone know what might prevent one from occuring this time around?

[panerd]

I don't think it is anywhere near the same size. Isn't the richter scale (sp.) exponential? So a 9.0 would be ten times worse than an 8.0 Not saying it won't cause problems, but also thinking it is nowhere near the size of the last one.

[SirFozzie]

Here's the thing: the initial report of the December quake was 6.8.. that has since been revised up to 8.9-9.0. This was initially reported as 8.2 and made it to 8.5. Going to be interesting to see if that is the "true" strength of the earthquake

[ShovelMonkey]

I haven't seen any reports yet that it's caused any waves.

[Easy Mac]

1st earthquake - day after Christmas
2nd earthquake - day after Easter

The chances of there being an actual religious connection are probably enormously small... but it is quite odd for it to match up like that. I'd think the odds have to be pretty large (not that they would occur on the dates they did, but in relation to dates with very important Christian meanings, of which there's really only 2 each year)

Just really weird.

[Cringer]

1st earthquake - day after Christmas
2nd earthquake - day after Easter

The chances of there being an actual religious connection are probably enormously small... but it is quite odd for it to match up like that. I'd think the odds have to be pretty large (not that they would occur on the dates they did, but in relation to dates with very important Christian meanings, of which there's really only 2 each year)

Just really weird.

So is this a "You better convert" msg?

[Balldog]

I haven't seen any reports yet that it's caused any waves.

The waves are undetectable until they nearly hit land, if I am not mistaken.

[MikeVic]

This sucks. :(

[gottimd]

So is this a "You better convert" msg?
If this had happened back in the biblical times, it probably would've been viewed and recorded as that.

[SirFozzie]

y Reuters | March 28, 2005

WASHINGTON -- A large earthquake off the coast of northern Sumatra has the potential to cause a "widely destructive tsunami" and authorities should take "immediate action," including evacuating coastlines within 600 miles of the epicenter, the Pacific tsunami warning center said Monday.


The center said the magnitude was 8.5, according to preliminary data.

"Authorities can assume the danger has passed if no tsunami waves are observed in the region near the epicenter within three hours of the earthquake," the center said in a statement.

Charles McCreery, director of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, who put the earthquake at magnitude 8.5, said discrepancies in initial measurements were not unusual.

He said it would take up to two hours for the waves to reach Sri Lanka where they could be measured.

The latest quake was quite close to the devastating 9.3 magnitude quake of Dec. 26. Even though it was smaller, it was "likely to produce a tsunami," he told CNN.

Although plans for warning system in the Indian Ocean had not yet gone into effect, "everybody knows what a tsunami is. They didn't on December 26."

The National Weather Service's Pacific Tsunami Warning center is based in Hawaii.

[Cringer]

Live in CNN right now.....worst 'expert' ever. He has very little information, even about the last quake/tsunami.....

[Franklinnoble]

1st earthquake - day after Christmas
2nd earthquake - day after Easter

The chances of there being an actual religious connection are probably enormously small... but it is quite odd for it to match up like that. I'd think the odds have to be pretty large (not that they would occur on the dates they did, but in relation to dates with very important Christian meanings, of which there's really only 2 each year)

Just really weird.

Crap. I live in California, and I didn't even get my kids Easter baskets this year.

Maybe I can pick one up on clearance from Wal-Mart on the way home before it's too late.

[QuikSand]

The chances of there being an actual religious connection are probably enormously small.

Agreed. (Without the rest of it)

[Lathum]

So is it just a waiting game now or is there a way to detirmine if there is going to be one.

[WSUCougar]

Revised to 8.7

[SirFozzie]

Reports of a small tsunami.. minor in nature.

[Ksyrup]

Australian wave warning for west






SYDNEY, Australia (AP) -- Australian officials warned of a possible powerful tsunami hitting the country's western coast Tuesday after a massive earthquake in the Indian Ocean, despite other nations closer to the quake's epicenter withdrawing their warnings.

The threat of a tsunami apparently passed for the Australian territory of Cocos Islands Tuesday after a 8.7-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Indonesia's Sumatra island, but the Bureau of Meteorology issued a high seas weather warning for the entire Western Australia state coast.

A 25-centimeter (10 inch) high tsunami was recorded at the Indian Ocean islands where monitoring buoys are stationed, Australian meteorologists said.

The tsunami was observed passing through tidal gauges placed by the Australian government at the remote group of 27 islands, about 1,100 kilometers (680 miles) southwest of Sumatra island.

The December 26 tsunami that devastated southern Asia was also detected at the same spot, measuring 33 centimeters (13 inches), the Bureau of Meteorology said in a statement.

Seismologist Phil Cummins at Geoscience Australia estimated a tsunami could measure five meters (16 feet) or more by the time it comes ashore.

"I would still say that this thing has potential to have a large tsunami associated with it," he told Australian Broadcasting Corporation radio.

"It seems perfectly reasonable to me that one should expect, one should be prepared for a tsunami of roughly the same size as that that happened on Boxing Day (Dec. 26)."

Harry Nowak, the senior meteorologist at Australia's National Meteorological and Oceanographic Center, said the tsunami was expected to reach the coastal city of Fremantle at about 5:42 a.m. local time (2242 GMT).

Fremantle, a suburban port area for the city of Perth in Western Australia, would not be the first place to be hit by the tsunami, but is one of the largest populated areas.

Nowak said it was difficult to estimate what impact the tsunami would have when it strikes land, adding the waves would gain strength as they move towards shallower waters.

[Bubba Wheels]

Drudge reporting 100% chance of tsunami and death toll from quake alone could be 2000.