21C
03-30-2005, 02:19 AM
I always enjoy reading the Diamond Mind Baseball projections. You can read the latest one for the coming season here:
http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/proj2005.htm
I'm not a customer of DMB but I appreciate the thoroughness of their predictions. There is nothing to say that they will get them right but I always like the idea of how they put these together. They are probably no better than simming a season in MVP but they do go to lengths to explain the reasons for their projections. I usually print them them out and read them in my "library".
Here is the summary for their 100 sims and the average number of wins:
Legend
W, L, Pct, GB -- average wins, average losses, winning percentage, games behind leader
RF, RA -- average runs for and against
#DIV, #WC -- number of division titles and wild cards (fractions given for ties)
AL East W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC
New York 97 65 .599 - 904 744 55.5 38.8
Boston 96 66 .593 1 922 765 44.5 43.0
Baltimore 80 82 .494 17 827 837 6.5
Toronto 73 89 .451 24 800 877
Tampa Bay 66 96 .407 31 729 883
AL Central W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC
Minnesota 89 73 .549 - 854 786 71.5 .3
Cleveland 79 83 .488 10 815 830 9.0 1.0
Chicago 79 83 .488 10 817 841 8.5 2.3
Detroit 79 83 .488 10 832 857 11.0 1.0
Kansas City 67 95 .414 22 761 890
AL West W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC
Oakland 85 77 .525 - 873 817 31.0 1.0
Los Angeles 84 78 .519 1 803 775 29.0 2.5
Seattle 83 79 .512 2 795 778 25.0 2.0
Texas 80 82 .494 5 852 875 15.0 1.5
NL East W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC
Philadelphia 90 72 .556 - 861 781 53.0 13.0
Atlanta 86 76 .531 4 793 738 25.0 10.0
Florida 82 80 .506 8 756 746 12.0 10.0
New York 82 80 .506 8 788 774 8.0 8.0
Washington 79 83 .488 11 748 780 2.0 3.0
NL Central W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC
St. Louis 103 59 .636 - 876 666 99.0
Chicago 83 79 .512 20 783 768 1.0 17.8
Houston 77 85 .475 26 766 810 1.0
Cincinnati 72 90 .444 31 769 854 1.0
Pittsburgh 72 90 .444 31 725 809
Milwaukee 70 92 .432 33 721 812 1.0
NL West W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC
Los Angeles 90 72 .556 - 811 733 56.5 11.3
San Francisco 88 74 .543 2 853 782 35.0 17.3
San Diego 81 81 .500 9 784 767 7.5 6.5
Colorado 70 92 .432 20 852 978 1.0
Arizona 68 94 .420 22 786 903
http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/proj2005.htm
I'm not a customer of DMB but I appreciate the thoroughness of their predictions. There is nothing to say that they will get them right but I always like the idea of how they put these together. They are probably no better than simming a season in MVP but they do go to lengths to explain the reasons for their projections. I usually print them them out and read them in my "library".
Here is the summary for their 100 sims and the average number of wins:
Legend
W, L, Pct, GB -- average wins, average losses, winning percentage, games behind leader
RF, RA -- average runs for and against
#DIV, #WC -- number of division titles and wild cards (fractions given for ties)
AL East W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC
New York 97 65 .599 - 904 744 55.5 38.8
Boston 96 66 .593 1 922 765 44.5 43.0
Baltimore 80 82 .494 17 827 837 6.5
Toronto 73 89 .451 24 800 877
Tampa Bay 66 96 .407 31 729 883
AL Central W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC
Minnesota 89 73 .549 - 854 786 71.5 .3
Cleveland 79 83 .488 10 815 830 9.0 1.0
Chicago 79 83 .488 10 817 841 8.5 2.3
Detroit 79 83 .488 10 832 857 11.0 1.0
Kansas City 67 95 .414 22 761 890
AL West W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC
Oakland 85 77 .525 - 873 817 31.0 1.0
Los Angeles 84 78 .519 1 803 775 29.0 2.5
Seattle 83 79 .512 2 795 778 25.0 2.0
Texas 80 82 .494 5 852 875 15.0 1.5
NL East W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC
Philadelphia 90 72 .556 - 861 781 53.0 13.0
Atlanta 86 76 .531 4 793 738 25.0 10.0
Florida 82 80 .506 8 756 746 12.0 10.0
New York 82 80 .506 8 788 774 8.0 8.0
Washington 79 83 .488 11 748 780 2.0 3.0
NL Central W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC
St. Louis 103 59 .636 - 876 666 99.0
Chicago 83 79 .512 20 783 768 1.0 17.8
Houston 77 85 .475 26 766 810 1.0
Cincinnati 72 90 .444 31 769 854 1.0
Pittsburgh 72 90 .444 31 725 809
Milwaukee 70 92 .432 33 721 812 1.0
NL West W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WC
Los Angeles 90 72 .556 - 811 733 56.5 11.3
San Francisco 88 74 .543 2 853 782 35.0 17.3
San Diego 81 81 .500 9 784 767 7.5 6.5
Colorado 70 92 .432 20 852 978 1.0
Arizona 68 94 .420 22 786 903