View Full Version : For the love of all that is holy, why can't SOMEONE get this right???
Ben E Lou
04-03-2005, 09:00 AM
OOTP---Mogul----PureSim, it doesn't matter. NONE of them seem to have the first clue when it comes to young players making their debuts at anything resembling the proper time. I downloaded the PureSim demo last night, and let it run 25 seasons overnight. Just like in OOTP and Mogul, players--good players--are playing their first full seasons at age 26, 27, 28 and up. For example, I'm looking right now at a PureSim player card of a 28-year-old who had a .291-32-103 season in 2030--and 2030 was his first full season as a starter. Gimme a break. If this was an isolated occurrence, then MAYBE I could let it pass, but it happens FAR too often in all three games. Average ages of everyday players in OOTP and BBM have been shown to be 1.5-2.0 years too high. I didn't do calculations on PureSim, but looking through the game, it certainly looks like it is in the same range. Man, I hope Solecismic is doing a baseball sim. http://www.fof-ihof.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/icon_rant.gif (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:emoticon%28%27:rant:%27%29)
Cringer
04-03-2005, 09:08 AM
That is one thing that always bugged me about OOTP. Have not tried the others.
CentralMassHokie
04-03-2005, 09:17 AM
This is just one reason why OOTP kills me. The player development and creation algorithms are so messed up that you end up with a batch of great players, and then a patch of replacement level players, and very little in between. The great players get locked up to long terms deals before they hit free agency, so teams spend millions on replacement level talent.
So, on the off chance that a minor leaguer develops quickly and you can get him to the majors at 24/25, most teams have a $3m crapfest playing that position due to the screwed up market.
Drafted players just don't develop fast enough, and even after all that talk about moving to a DIPS/stat based engine, there's still not enough correlation between minor league performance and major league performance. With 90% of the players, you could turn stats off and just use ratings as your guide, and you'd be more effective.
When Shaun had initially talked about not using ratings at all with PureSim, I wrote him an email and said I would buy it on the spot. He backtracked and ended up using ratings, and that's why I just haven't purchased it. And I probably won't buy another baseball sim until someone pays more attention to the player production end than they spend on the ratings.
Shaun Sullivan
04-03-2005, 09:24 AM
What size league were you using?
I'll do a study and see if what you are saying is proven out in the numbers. This is a very difficult thing to balance as it sits at the confluence of a number of factors that evolve over time. The player career arc, aging algorithm, retirement logic, contract/free agent AI all of them play a role. I'm not making excuses, just saying it is a tough one to balance. And each tweak of an independent variable requires running 50 or so seasons to get a read on the impact.
Note that all of the above variables can be tweaked in PureSim's XML file but that is not something a user should have to do. That stuff is more for me -- its just easier to build a data-driven engine.
I'll have a look.
CraigSca
04-03-2005, 09:26 AM
I know this is completely against his policy, but it sure would be nice if Jim were to tell us if he was making a baseball sim or not. Would save some of us a lot of time.
Ben E Lou
04-03-2005, 09:32 AM
What size league were you using?
I'll do a study and see if what you are saying is proven out in the numbers. This is a very difficult thing to balance as it sits at the confluence of a number of factors that evolve over time. The player career arc, aging algorithm, retirement logic, contract/free agent AI all of them play a role. I'm not making excuses, just saying it is a tough one to balance. And each tweak of an independent variable requires running 50 or so seasons to get a read on the impact.
Note that all of the above variables can be tweaked in PureSim's XML file but that is not something a user should have to do. That stuff is more for me -- its just easier to build a data-driven engine.
I'll have a look.League size was 24 teams (2 leagues, 3 divisions, 4 teams each).
I appreciate you taking a look at it, and I hope you know I wasn't taking a shot at you personally. Realistic player development is very important to me in a baseball sim in particular, and I've just been continually frustrated beyond belief at it in every game I've looked at. There are a lot of things I could enjoy in the new versions of Mogul and Puresim, but the player age thing is an absolute deal-breaker for me at this point.
Shaun Sullivan
04-03-2005, 09:53 AM
Realistic player development is very important to me in a baseball sim in particular, and I've just been continually frustrated beyond belief at it in every game I've looked at
What types of info are you looking at? Average age per team? What season players have their best seasons? Give me an idea of what the key indicators are as far as you see them. The more you can quantify it the better chance I have of analyzing it.
Ben E Lou
04-03-2005, 10:12 AM
What types of info are you looking at? Average age per team? What season players have their best seasons? Give me an idea of what the key indicators are as far as you see them. The more you can quantify it the better chance I have of analyzing it.The primary problem with all three games is pretty much the same: youngsters are not getting into the everyday lineup. It appears that player peak ages are pretty good in both PureSim and Mogul. However, like the guy I mentioned above, players aren't starting until later than they should. Some extensive research was done, and it was found that the average age in MLB from 1980-2003 of players who had >350 AB's in a season was right around 28.8 years. In my current PureSim season (after 25 years of simming), 169 batters had >350 AB's. Here are the ages of the players under 29 who had that many AB's:
28: 23
27: 10
26: 7
25: 1
Yup, that's right. Only 41 out of 169 fell under the average age. More alarming is that not one player aged 24 or under played every day. I'll have to do a search and give you the exact numbers that should be exected there, but, having checked into the numbers thoroughly, I can assure you that that is waaaaaayyyyyy off.
Shaun Sullivan
04-03-2005, 10:21 AM
Not to be a nitpicker but shouldn't you include 29 in your breakdown if the number you were mentioning was 28.8?
TroyF
04-03-2005, 10:25 AM
Yep, that part is troubling to me, but I ended up choosing Pure Sim for my baseball sim needs regardless.
Three reasons:
1) Mogul just isn't doing it for me.
2) OOTP just keeps giving me the same issues.
3) While Pure Sim still has a few issues (a big one is the one you are talking about), the xml file alows tweaks and Shaun is simply terrific about helping others and dealing with the criticism of his game.
I like the look and feel of Pure Sim. I'm going to take some time playing around with it and try to get a fictional league put together. I'm thinking about going with the same league you did Skydog, 24 teams, 3 divisions a league.
I went ahead and took the thirty dollar plunge last night. I'll give Mogul another try three patches down the line and see what it gives me, but I'm going to devote my time to playing Pure Sim for awhile.
Oh, and Shaun, the add on packs are terrific. Nice touch.
Ben E Lou
04-03-2005, 10:37 AM
Not to be a nitpicker but shouldn't you include 29 in your breakdown if the number you were mentioning was 28.8?My point wasn't to give exact numbers, but to illustrate how few young players are playing every day.
I did find some of the research numbers (at the Mogul beta area). It would indicate that, based on 169 >350 AB players, the following should have been the under-29 breakdowns:
18-20: 1.15
21: 2.44
22: 4.99
23: 8.37
24: 11.29
25: 14.55
26: 16.02
27: 16.72
28: 16.71
That's a total of 92 under-29 players (as opposed to the 41 in PureSim) in a league this size that should have gotten 350 or more at bats. Or, looked at another way, 39.53 players under 26 should have been getting 350 AB's, and only one did. That's why I didn't bother to to full breakdowns; it was so obviously way off that it wasn't really worth the time at this point.
Ben E Lou
04-03-2005, 10:42 AM
FWIW, right now I've got all three shelved. I haven't purchased PureSim yet, but it would be a definite purchase if the player ages came closer to reality.
Another question: are there plans for customized HTML reports from PureSim (or am I doing something wrong with the demo version?) I can only get the one report that is REALLY spread out across the screen.
Ben E Lou
04-03-2005, 10:58 AM
Details....
http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/board/showpost.php?p=889073&postcount=60
Here is the hitter data. This is all batters who had 350+ at bats in a season from 1900 through 2003.
HTML Code:
Age 1 2 3 4 5
18 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
19 0.13% 0.22% 0.13% 0.17% 0.02%
20 0.53% 0.51% 0.96% 0.53% 0.20%
21 1.77% 1.41% 1.34% 1.96% 0.75%
22 3.50% 3.14% 2.55% 3.71% 1.87%
23 5.27% 4.73% 4.14% 6.79% 3.85%
24 6.65% 6.32% 5.54% 8.42% 6.46%
25 8.91% 8.12% 7.97% 9.94% 8.09%
26 9.61% 8.73% 9.24% 10.21% 9.62%
27 10.86% 9.92% 9.82% 10.24% 10.28%
28 9.88% 9.85% 10.39% 9.98% 9.36%
29 8.64% 9.06% 10.07% 8.62% 9.07%
30 8.46% 8.34% 9.62% 7.59% 8.20%
31 6.47% 7.36% 7.84% 5.87% 7.49%
32 5.63% 6.03% 6.95% 4.74% 6.09%
33 4.43% 5.12% 4.53% 3.71% 5.16%
34 3.32% 3.97% 3.00% 2.55% 4.26%
35 1.99% 2.67% 2.68% 2.06% 3.08%
36 1.33% 1.91% 1.59% 1.26% 2.31%
37 1.20% 1.08% 0.96% 0.63% 1.49%
38 0.58% 0.76% 0.25% 0.50% 1.03%
39 0.49% 0.43% 0.13% 0.30% 0.53%
40 0.18% 0.22% 0.19% 0.13% 0.44%
41 0.09% 0.11% 0.06% 0.10% 0.18%
42 0.04% 0.00% 0.06% 0.00% 0.09%
43 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07%
http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/board/showpost.php?p=889040&postcount=58
Here is the pitcher data. Specifically - Every pitcher (9,261 to be
exact) who threw 130+ innings in a season from 1900 through 2003 (I
don't have the 2004 data yet). The data is YEARLY so the same pitcher
is reflected more than once. For example, if you look at the last
column, you'll notice that there was 1 pitcher who pitched in that era
at age 46, one at age 47, and one at age 48. All three of those entries
are for Phil Niekro.
HTML Code:
Age 1 2 3 4 5
18 0.06% 0.05% 0.00% 0.05% 0.00%
19 0.30% 0.10% 0.36% 0.26% 0.04%
20 1.21% 0.35% 0.91% 0.78% 0.19%
21 2.37% 1.29% 2.36% 2.82% 0.97%
22 4.37% 2.43% 2.99% 5.17% 2.67%
23 7.16% 3.38% 4.53% 7.15% 5.58%
24 8.86% 5.41% 6.43% 9.34% 7.33%
25 10.01% 6.95% 6.88% 11.06% 9.19%
26 10.56% 8.79% 7.34% 10.65% 10.35%
27 10.74% 9.29% 8.79% 9.92% 9.65%
28 10.19% 9.04% 10.24% 8.51% 8.72%
29 8.74% 8.59% 9.60% 7.72% 8.33%
30 7.22% 7.75% 7.88% 5.32% 7.17%
31 5.46% 7.70% 7.70% 4.85% 6.09%
32 4.13% 6.36% 5.71% 4.59% 5.08%
33 2.85% 5.96% 4.98% 3.29% 4.19%
34 1.88% 4.62% 3.89% 2.71% 3.49%
35 1.52% 3.28% 2.72% 2.09% 2.79%
36 0.73% 2.53% 2.26% 1.46% 2.36%
37 0.67% 1.84% 1.45% 0.84% 1.82%
38 0.42% 1.49% 1.36% 0.63% 1.01%
39 0.12% 0.89% 1.00% 0.21% 0.89%
40 0.18% 0.79% 0.36% 0.16% 0.70%
41 0.12% 0.60% 0.09% 0.10% 0.47%
42 0.06% 0.25% 0.09% 0.16% 0.31%
43 0.06% 0.10% 0.00% 0.10% 0.16%
44 0.00% 0.05% 0.00% 0.05% 0.19%
45 0.00% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.16%
46 0.00% 0.05% 0.09% 0.00% 0.04%
47 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04%
48 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04%
</pre>
Note - After messing around with the format of this table for 15
minutes I figured "screw it!" and labeled the era's 1 through 5.
1 = deadball
2 = rebirth
3 = golden years
4 = boom
5 = modern
44 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02%
</pre>
Ben E Lou
04-03-2005, 11:00 AM
One more thing for Shaun:
FYI, when I was doing the tally for PureSim, even 26, 27 and 28-year-olds were running extremely until I got down around 450 AB's or so. At the 500 AB mark or so, I think I had only seen less than five players aged 25-27 even.
clintl
04-03-2005, 11:18 AM
I'll do a study and see if what you are saying is proven out in the numbers. This is a very difficult thing to balance as it sits at the confluence of a number of factors that evolve over time. The player career arc, aging algorithm, retirement logic, contract/free agent AI all of them play a role. I'm not making excuses, just saying it is a tough one to balance. And each tweak of an independent variable requires running 50 or so seasons to get a read on the impact.
Shaun, have you heard of the technique called Design of Experiments? I'm not sure how well it would apply to software algorithms, but we used it to study physical processes. It's a technique that allows you to simultaneously change more than one variable, and not only detect the effect of that variable, but its interactions with the other variables. If it's something that could be applied to your software algorithms, it could speed up your investigation quite a bit.
Shaun Sullivan
04-03-2005, 11:40 AM
Here is the hitter data. This is all batters who had 350+ at bats in a season from 1900 through 2003.
Great data! Just what I was looking for thanks.
mgadfly
04-03-2005, 01:49 PM
It has been awhile since I tried Puresim. Is there a way to turn ratings off (or limit them in any way)? Sorry to thread jack.
The player aging problem is one of the most frustrating parts of the games for me as well. The other is the use of "ratings" so much that stats aren't important. My ideal game would have a player "scouted" once that gives you an idea of his potential in every area. So if he was a 100 in power or "excellent" or whatever, that would be his potential and it would be up to the manager to determine (by stats) whether he had reached that potential (or gone over the hill and was declining).
HomerJSimpson
04-03-2005, 04:08 PM
I'm in the camp hoping Jim comes out with something playable. So far this year, I have spent $90 on three games, and not one has been worth the time. First I get guilted into buying Baseball Mogul (that "yes, Virgina, there are righties and lefties" is very cute, but misleading. There is a claim there are righty and lefty factors, but without being able to see whether a player is right handed or left, then it is still completely taking out a part of the game that is important. Heck, Clay could claim there are actual little men running bases inside your computer for all that this supposed r/l factor plays into the game). Baseball Mogul still is missing important elements of both the game and the financials that make it totally unsatisfactory. (Not to mention the many bugs that make it totally unplayable.)
Bought MLB 2006 for the PS2, and it was a bug ridden piece of crap (which is totally unforgivable in a console game). The career mode was an interesting concept, but the "manager mode" and franchise model stunk.
Then I bought MVP 2005 because of the general praise. It is more annoying than fun. "Player happiness" is very important it seems, yet there seems to be no way to make anyone happy. Anyone that does not start every single game (even when completely exhuasted) gets mad, No one will be a back up or a situational player even when they sign a contract to be one, and the only players I can make happy are the starting pitchers, yet Smolz and Hudson always suck no matter what I do with them. Errrrrrrr....
So, please Jim. Come and save us from the complete lack of decent baseball games. I would love just one that has the promise of OOTP, or even better a more complete HH.
Ben E Lou
04-03-2005, 04:23 PM
There is a claim there are righty and lefty factors, but without being able to see whether a player is right handed or left, then it is still completely taking out a part of the game that is important.You need some new glasses.
http://www.younglifenorthlake.com/fofc/card.jpg
Solecismic
04-03-2005, 04:36 PM
One major reason I don't announce new projects very far in advance is because I'm working on a lot of things.
That said, the bar is very, very high in baseball - these games are far prettier than I could ever hope to create without a team. I don't have the financial ability to hire a dedicated artist, though I feel confident that my engine design is very different from anything on the market. Maybe someday. Not this year.
Ben E Lou
04-03-2005, 04:47 PM
One major reason I don't announce new projects very far in advance is because I'm working on a lot of things.
That said, the bar is very, very high in baseball - these games are far prettier than I could ever hope to create without a team. I don't have the financial ability to hire a dedicated artist, though I feel confident that my engine design is very different from anything on the market. Maybe someday. Not this year.While I'm disappointed, I *really* appreciate you letting us know this. Now we know that it is worth our time to keep giving Shaun and Clay feedback.
sovereignstar
04-03-2005, 04:50 PM
While I'm disappointed, I *really* appreciate you letting us know this. Now we know that it is worth our time to keep giving Shaun and Clay feedback.
Ditto. This one really hurts. I was really hoping for a Solecismic baseball game this summer.
Good news for FBCB though as it seems to be the only other game that I can play (besides MP FOF).
Coder
04-03-2005, 04:56 PM
....though I feel confident that my engine design is very different from anything on the market.
Aha!!! He's got an engine!!! He's halfway there!!! He slipped!
MikeVic
04-03-2005, 04:59 PM
Aha!!! He's got an engine!!! He's halfway there!!! He slipped!
:D:D
CraigSca
04-03-2005, 05:04 PM
Jim,
I appreciate the feedback as well. On the contrary, I think an FOF-looking baseball sim would do very well. As you know with your other games, it's all about the engine and that engine receives a lot of praise as well as a large audience.
Reading about all these sims has caused me to re-write yet again, but it's only for my own personal uses. This thing will not die (unfortunately).
Buccaneer
04-03-2005, 05:28 PM
Good news for FBCB though as it seems to be the only other game that I can play (besides MP FOF).
Same here except that I will think about going back to OOTP5 because it handles historical seasons very well (though the jury is still out on BM and historical seasons).
By the way, has everyone given up on OOTP7?
33sherman
04-03-2005, 05:55 PM
Puresim has evolved and improved so much in the past year that I have total faith that these issues will be worked out. It's really a great game. I hate to come off like a shill but the game just gets better all the time.
rjolley
04-03-2005, 05:55 PM
FWIW, right now I've got all three shelved. I haven't purchased PureSim yet, but it would be a definite purchase if the player ages came closer to reality.
Another question: are there plans for customized HTML reports from PureSim (or am I doing something wrong with the demo version?) I can only get the one report that is REALLY spread out across the screen. Last I heard about the HTML reports, Shaun was looking at it, but hadn't stated any concrete plans. Hopefully, there'll be something coming, either from Shaun or from a third-party add-in.
Ben E Lou
04-03-2005, 09:04 PM
1. I completely agree with Craig with regard to a Solecismic baseball sim with an interface similar to FOF and TCY. When I enter my five WR's in TCY, I've often picture entering my five SP's in FOB. The engine's the thing.
2. I haven't given up on OOTP7, primarily because of the great news that everything is being rewritten from scratch, but the fact is that it appears to be 6ish months away. I'd really like for another baseball game to fill the void during that time, and right now, nothing is doing it for me. What's frustrating is that both Puresim and Mogul appear to have most of the elements in place to make it happen for me (although Puresim needs some way to export screens to seal the deal for me, and Mogul needs a yearly almanac). Both games could be tightened up in a few key areas and get me playing them a lot, I would think.
HomerJSimpson
04-03-2005, 09:14 PM
You need some new glasses.
http://www.younglifenorthlake.com/fofc/card.jpg
I need glasses less than Clay needs to put that information in a usable area. If that is the only place it is listed, it is not very user-friendly, is it? Or am I supposed to open up every single players card and memorize whether they are a lefty, righty, or a switch hitter?
HomerJSimpson
04-03-2005, 09:17 PM
Dola: Of course, what makes Baseball Mogul unplayable is less that (though that makes it not as enjoyable/immersive) is the number of huge game-breaking bugs. Like when an expansion draft takesalmost every player from your roster (after hours of play, I might add).
Celeval
04-03-2005, 09:24 PM
1. I completely agree with Craig with regard to a Solecismic baseball sim with an interface similar to FOF and TCY. When I enter my five WR's in TCY, I've often picture entering my five SP's in FOB. The engine's the thing.
Echoed. I would play OOTP or Puresim much more with a BBM (circa '98)-like or FOF-like interface. I like playing career games while doing other things, and something like a full-screen OOTP (or ITP - which I would have loved to have gotten into) are just too much of a footprint for my play. Ditto for running a dynasty... I hate alt-tabbing constantly.
Karim
04-03-2005, 10:30 PM
Another echo. A spreadsheet like interface with a solid engine was what I was envisioning for "FOB". But with SI backing OOTP7, it will be interesting to see what Markus pumps out.
MizzouRah
04-03-2005, 11:35 PM
Dola: Of course, what makes Baseball Mogul unplayable is less that (though that makes it not as enjoyable/immersive) is the number of huge game-breaking bugs. Like when an expansion draft takesalmost every player from your roster (after hours of play, I might add).
Yeah, I was trying to start with Tampa Bay after the 1998 expansion draft and when I left Anaheim and went to TB, they choose almost all Angeles. What gives?
Todd
HomerJSimpson
04-04-2005, 04:30 AM
Yeah, I was trying to start with Tampa Bay after the 1998 expansion draft and when I left Anaheim and went to TB, they choose almost all Angeles. What gives?
Todd
From what I gather it is an AI bug that the expansion teams only look at the first two teams alphabetically when making selections (so Anahiem and Atlanta), and there are no rules against taking no more than two players from any given team or allowing you to add more protected players.
HomerJSimpson
04-04-2005, 05:12 AM
I need glasses less than Clay needs to put that information in a usable area. If that is the only place it is listed, it is not very user-friendly, is it? Or am I supposed to open up every single players card and memorize whether they are a lefty, righty, or a switch hitter?
BTW, you can put "important" information, like height and weight, in the roster fields, but not unimportant information like batting side and throwing arm. I mean, who doesn't make sure every roster has so many 6' players or enough players under 200 pounds. :rolleyes:
Ben E Lou
04-04-2005, 06:25 AM
Good suggestions, Homer. How 'bout posting them in the Mogul forums, too, so Clay has an actual chance of seeing them.
Anthony
04-04-2005, 08:45 AM
Not to be a nitpicker but shouldn't you include 29 in your breakdown if the number you were mentioning was 28.8?
uhhhh...yeah...hate to break it to the colored man, but 28.8 is 29. nice job SD. :rolleyes:
Huckleberry
04-04-2005, 08:53 AM
uhhhh...yeah...hate to break it to the colored man, but 28.8 is 29. nice job SD. :rolleyes:
Am I missing something?
I thought it was pretty clear he was showing how many players in the league universe under the IRL average were represented.
29 is not under the 28.8 average. At least I don't think it is.
Anthony
04-04-2005, 08:54 AM
fwiw, i do have the same probs as SD when it comes to youngins - not enough Miguel Carbera's and Mark Prior's and Albert Pujols'. i like seeing players firsthand have a crack at breaking all-time records, and it's very hard to do that in baseball sim games because all the players start their career too late and are worth shit by the time they reach 34/35. so you need about 15 or so years to have a crack at breaking any major baseball record, yet most baseball text sim players have a career that lasts 10 years or so. poot.
One major reason I don't announce new projects very far in advance is because I'm working on a lot of things.
That said, the bar is very, very high in baseball - these games are far prettier than I could ever hope to create without a team. I don't have the financial ability to hire a dedicated artist, though I feel confident that my engine design is very different from anything on the market. Maybe someday. Not this year.
Good decision IMO. I think Jim's fanbase will purchase anything he releases, but to do well financially he has to attract the fringe customers who already have multiple baseball game choices. While many of us love Jim's games because of the rock solid engine, those on the fringe often are more attracted to the bells and whistles of other games.
Anthony
04-04-2005, 08:58 AM
Good decision IMO. I think Jim's fanbase will purchase anything he releases, but to do well financially he has to attract the fringe customers who already have multiple baseball game choices. While many of us love Jim's games because of the rock solid engine, those on the fringe often are more attracted to the bells and whistles of other games.
i don't consider myself a fringe customer of his, i just would like to have something visually appealling on top of having a solid game engine. i don't think you necessarily have to sacrifice either for the sake of one (FM doesn't). yes, yes, SIgames is much larger than Solecismic. but i don't subscribe to the "you can only have one or the other" line of thinking.
i understand the small operation in which Solecismic is run, but that doesn't mean i want to settle for a game that looks like Excel on roids.
MizzouRah
04-04-2005, 09:49 AM
i understand the small operation in which Solecismic is run, but that doesn't mean i want to settle for a game that looks like Excel on roids.
Very nice.
Although I do like the possibility of a FOB game, I think TCY 2 is just around the corner. :)
Todd
rdomico
04-04-2005, 02:10 PM
Jim,
I appreciate the feedback as well. On the contrary, I think an FOF-looking baseball sim would do very well. As you know with your other games, it's all about the engine and that engine receives a lot of praise as well as a large audience.
Reading about all these sims has caused me to re-write yet again, but it's only for my own personal uses. This thing will not die (unfortunately).
I agree. I would be very happy with a FOF-looking baseball sim. It's all about the engine.
Dreslough
04-04-2005, 10:58 PM
Yeah, I was trying to start with Tampa Bay after the 1998 expansion draft and when I left Anaheim and went to TB, they choose almost all Angeles. What gives?
Todd
This might be a bug related to switching teams during expansion. I haven't seen this bug before in a normal expansion draft, nor have I seen it reported until now.
Let me know if you have steps to reproduce it and I should be able to fix it.
Clay
Dreslough
04-04-2005, 11:00 PM
Version 8.07 (http://www.sportsmogul.com/vbulletin2/showthread.php?s=&threadid=71838)
Fixes the bugs I created in 8.06, plus some improvements in talent development and Free Agent AI.
BTW, if you're having trouble with player talent levels, you can adjust them in Rookies.ini. If you make some tweaks that improve (or worsen) the average age issue, let me know.
Thanks!
Clay
cjd at sportsmogul dot com
MizzouRah
04-04-2005, 11:40 PM
This might be a bug related to switching teams during expansion. I haven't seen this bug before in a normal expansion draft, nor have I seen it reported until now.
Let me know if you have steps to reproduce it and I should be able to fix it.
Clay
Start in 1997 with the Anaheim Angeles, switch to Tampa Bay after the season via the editor. This should replicate the bug.
Thanks,
Todd
Ben E Lou
04-05-2005, 09:43 AM
BTW, if you're having trouble with player talent levels, you can adjust them in Rookies.ini. If you make some tweaks that improve (or worsen) the average age issue, let me know.Hmmm.....I did a little tweaking of these and ran a 100-year sim. I got hitters' average ages to improve quite a bit, while getting pitchers a little too young, but not terrible (average age has been 27.5-28.0...should be somewhere in the 28.7 range) Since this thing sims so fast, I'll do another tweak and run another test. One promising side effect of younger players in my 100-year sim: *Every* team made the playoffs at least once, the Yanks only won 25 World Championships, and no team averaged 100 losses per season. Here's the rookies.ini file I used: ,ROOKIES.INI
,Used by Baseball Mogul versions 5.2.6.0 and later
,(All lines beginning with a comma are ignored)
,To adjust the talent level of rookies created at each position, edit the number after each position name.
,To adjust the OVERALL talent level, edit the values for all positions.
,100 is considered 'normal'. Lower numbers reduce talent level at this position and higher numbers raise it.
Pitcher,118
Catcher,98
First Baseman,98
Second Baseman,98
Third Baseman,98
Shortstop,93
Left Fielder,93
Center Fielder,98
Right Fielder,98
Designated Hitter,98
Here are the original settings:
Pitcher,105
Catcher,90
First Baseman,90
Second Baseman,90
Third Baseman,90
Shortstop,85
Left Fielder,85
Center Fielder,90
Right Fielder,90
Designated Hitter,90
With these settings, a slugger hit exactly 755 homers. His career development went as follows:
Drafted 1(9) at age 18.
Went straight to the majors at 18. (Not a huge problem here. He was with Milwaukee--probably a half-decent and cheap option.
Struggled in first year, but showed some promise: .197-20-73
.268-30-85 at age 19.
Missed a big chunk of years at ages 20 and 21 due to injury. Was having a breakout year at age 20, but struggled in his return at age 21.
.254-30-86 at age 22
.266-48-113 at age 23
.308-64-146 at age 24
Prime years age 24-33. Average ranged from .270-.317 during this time, no full season with less than 33 homers during this time
Looks like he's starting to fade at 34: .252-32-86
From age 34-37, averages range from .252-.281, HR's range from 27-39
Part-time player at 38, but hits 24 homers in only 222 AB's.
Fades at age 39, spend second half of season in AAA, then retires.
Not bad. Just one player, but not bad.
Here's another, a player who had 3,537 hits:
Drafted 1(23) in 2043, at age 18.
Age 18: 200 AB's in AA, 13 AB's in AAA
Age 19: 327 AB's in AAA, 316 AB's in MLB: .234-4-25
Age 20: first full season in MLB: .301-15-78
Ages 21-23: doesn't crack .300 either of these years, but ranges from .268-.295, with 15-23 HR's
Age 24: .338-29-125
Really in his prime statistically from ages 24-37: .271-.338, 14-33 HR's. At age 37 he was .317-19-70
Finally began to fade at age 38: .217-20-58
.224-16-59 at age 39, and done.
One more check. I wanted to look at a random solid starter, but not a Hall Of Famer. I run across 40-year-old Walt Drudge. He was an everyday player for 12 seasons, is a .268 lifetime hitter with 254 homers, 973 RBI's, and 2017 hits. Here's his story:
Drafted 2(17) at age 21
Age 21: 422 AB's in A-Ball, 12 AB's in AA
Age 22: 318 AB's in A-Ball, 70 AB's in AA, 17 in MLB
Age 23: 366 AB's in AA, 148 in AAA, 54 in MLB
Age 24: 20 AB's in AAA, 609 in MLB: .251-17-67
Ages 25 and 26: .258-14-65 and .246-12-51
Breakthrough year at 27: .270-28-82
Prime years 27-32: ranged from .270-.293, HR's from 23-34 during that time
33-35 was .244-11-72, .256-15-81, .270-13-52
Pinch hitter for rest of his career. Best year as PH was at age 36: 69 G's, 75 AB's, .293 average
Tweaking rookies.ini a little (lowering pitcher number), and running another sim. Thoughts on these development curves?
st.cronin
04-05-2005, 10:06 AM
I wouldn't think an 18 year old would be allowed to hit .197 in the bigs unless he was a gold glove shortstop and the team just really didn't have any other options at all.
The other two players look pretty realistic to me.
st.cronin
04-05-2005, 11:10 AM
dola
doing a little research - post WWII I've only found 2 18 year olds to get significant playing time - Robin Yount and Ed Kranepool. Kranepool had 279 at bats and hit just .209. This was the 1963 NY Mets, so I'm not sure that even counts.
Robin Yount had 344 ab and hit .250.
There have been some pitchers - Bob Feller, Larry Dierker, a couple of others.
Ben E Lou
04-05-2005, 11:14 AM
EDIT: Never mind. I figured out how to do it.
The average age in 2004 at which position players got their first AB in MLB was 24.451, breaking down as follows:
18-20: 1 (19.347)
20-20.99: 6
21-21.99: 18
22-22.99: 18
23-23.99: 40
24-24.99: 34
25-25.99: 36
26-26.99: 23
27-27.99: 13
28-28.99: 13
29-29.99: 2
30-30.99: 2
31-31.99: 0
32-32.99: 1
33-33.99: 0
34-34.99: 0
35-35.99: 0
36 and up: 0
Ben E Lou
04-05-2005, 11:16 AM
Can't get it formatted just right. Here's the page with the data: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/ML_2004_debut.shtml
henry296
04-05-2005, 11:23 AM
Skydog,
Average is 24.40 with a standard deviation of 2.22. The median is 24.2
Now for some statistics talk... The data is pretty normally distributed. Therfore about 68% of the players should be between 22.18 and 27.62. There really are 2 outliers with ages of 32 and 35, both Japanese players... Shingo Takatsu and Akinori Otsuka. There was 1 player under 20 and that was B.J. Upton.
Todd
Ben E Lou
04-05-2005, 11:34 AM
I'm going to look at the data from 2000-2004, to get a five-year average.
HomerJSimpson
04-05-2005, 11:42 AM
Good suggestions, Homer. How 'bout posting them in the Mogul forums, too, so Clay has an actual chance of seeing them.
Because they have long been posted by others and ignored.
Ben E Lou
04-05-2005, 11:49 AM
Because they have long been posted by others and ignored.I just did a search, and I only find three mentions of the expansion bug you mentioned (and only one--by Todd--yesterday) that specifically details that it impacts teams that start with "A". I haven't seen anyone mention the idea of moving Bats/Throws to another page. Again, Clay has made it quite clear that the squeaky wheel is going to get the grease. This guy, in response to Todd's comment about the expansion teams, clearly has the right idea:
<table border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><td bgcolor="#f1f1f1" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top" width="175">SFSteveG
Mogul
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Location: Northlake, IL(NW Chicago suburb)
Posts: 288
</td> <td bgcolor="#f1f1f1" valign="top" width="100%"> It was mentioned somewhere else (I think it was a while ago) and I don't remember hearing anything about it being fixed or looked at.
Voicing your opinion and making it known that people care is the best way to fix issues here.
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__________________
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HomerJSimpson
04-05-2005, 11:53 AM
I just did a search, and I only find three mentions of the expansion bug you mentioned (and only one--by Todd--yesterday) that specifically details that it impacts teams that start with "A". I haven't seen anyone mention the idea of moving Bats/Throws to another page. Again, Clay has made it quite clear that the squeaky wheel is going to get the grease. This guy, in response to Todd's comment about the expansion teams, clearly has the right idea:
<table border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><td bgcolor="#f1f1f1" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top" width="175">SFSteveG
Mogul
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Location: Northlake, IL(NW Chicago suburb)
Posts: 288
</td> <td bgcolor="#f1f1f1" valign="top" width="100%"> It was mentioned somewhere else (I think it was a while ago) and I don't remember hearing anything about it being fixed or looked at.
Voicing your opinion and making it known that people care is the best way to fix issues here.
<!-- BEGIN TEMPLATE: postbit_signature -->
__________________
W007! W007! Opening Weekend tix! Right next to the Wrigley press box but whatever. WOO! Gonna be fun!
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I'm not interested in being a squeky wheel. The batting/arm thing has been a complaint since I first played the first BM, so it is not like it has just happened. My previous experience with this series tells me the squeaky wheel gets ignored or attacked by "fan boys."
Ben E Lou
04-05-2005, 12:00 PM
2000: 24.82 (Joe Strong at 37.25 that year, and Kazuhiro Sasaki at 32.04)
2001: 24.26 (few unusual debuts...only one over 30.25: Jalal Leach at 32.18)
2002: 24.68 (three Japanese players ages 32.32, 33.08, 36.2)
2003: 24.66 (nothing hugely out of proportion, but three players over 30.35)
Five-season average age of debut, 2000-2004: 24.57
Ben E Lou
04-05-2005, 12:03 PM
I'm not interested in being a squeky wheel. The batting/arm thing has been a complaint since I first played the first BM, so it is not like it has just happened. My previous experience with this series tells me the squeaky wheel gets ignored or attacked by "fan boys."All I know is that the more I've given feedback, the more Clay seems to be trying to address the issues I've brought up. It has been very easy to fend off the few fanboys over there with cold, hard statistics.
MizzouRah
04-05-2005, 12:24 PM
Hmmm.....I did a little tweaking of these and ran a 100-year sim. I got hitters' average ages to improve quite a bit, while getting pitchers a little too young, but not terrible (average age has been 27.5-28.0...should be somewhere in the 28.7 range) Since this thing sims so fast, I'll do another tweak and run another test. One promising side effect of younger players in my 100-year sim: *Every* team made the playoffs at least once, the Yanks only won 25 World Championships, and no team averaged 100 losses per season. Here's the rookies.ini file I used:
Here are the original settings:
With these settings, a slugger hit exactly 755 homers. His career development went as follows:
Drafted 1(9) at age 18.
Went straight to the majors at 18. (Not a huge problem here. He was with Milwaukee--probably a half-decent and cheap option.
Struggled in first year, but showed some promise: .197-20-73
.268-30-85 at age 19.
Missed a big chunk of years at ages 20 and 21 due to injury. Was having a breakout year at age 20, but struggled in his return at age 21.
.254-30-86 at age 22
.266-48-113 at age 23
.308-64-146 at age 24
Prime years age 24-33. Average ranged from .270-.317 during this time, no full season with less than 33 homers during this time
Looks like he's starting to fade at 34: .252-32-86
From age 34-37, averages range from .252-.281, HR's range from 27-39
Part-time player at 38, but hits 24 homers in only 222 AB's.
Fades at age 39, spend second half of season in AAA, then retires.
Not bad. Just one player, but not bad.
Here's another, a player who had 3,537 hits:
Drafted 1(23) in 2043, at age 18.
Age 18: 200 AB's in AA, 13 AB's in AAA
Age 19: 327 AB's in AAA, 316 AB's in MLB: .234-4-25
Age 20: first full season in MLB: .301-15-78
Ages 21-23: doesn't crack .300 either of these years, but ranges from .268-.295, with 15-23 HR's
Age 24: .338-29-125
Really in his prime statistically from ages 24-37: .271-.338, 14-33 HR's. At age 37 he was .317-19-70
Finally began to fade at age 38: .217-20-58
.224-16-59 at age 39, and done.
One more check. I wanted to look at a random solid starter, but not a Hall Of Famer. I run across 40-year-old Walt Drudge. He was an everyday player for 12 seasons, is a .268 lifetime hitter with 254 homers, 973 RBI's, and 2017 hits. Here's his story:
Drafted 2(17) at age 21
Age 21: 422 AB's in A-Ball, 12 AB's in AA
Age 22: 318 AB's in A-Ball, 70 AB's in AA, 17 in MLB
Age 23: 366 AB's in AA, 148 in AAA, 54 in MLB
Age 24: 20 AB's in AAA, 609 in MLB: .251-17-67
Ages 25 and 26: .258-14-65 and .246-12-51
Breakthrough year at 27: .270-28-82
Prime years 27-32: ranged from .270-.293, HR's from 23-34 during that time
33-35 was .244-11-72, .256-15-81, .270-13-52
Pinch hitter for rest of his career. Best year as PH was at age 36: 69 G's, 75 AB's, .293 average
Tweaking rookies.ini a little (lowering pitcher number), and running another sim. Thoughts on these development curves?
Quite a surprise to read this!! Thanks a much! Results like this are definitly going to get me into this game. Bravo.
I think we're getting there.
Todd
MizzouRah
04-05-2005, 12:26 PM
I'm not interested in being a squeky wheel. The batting/arm thing has been a complaint since I first played the first BM, so it is not like it has just happened. My previous experience with this series tells me the squeaky wheel gets ignored or attacked by "fan boys."
Not true. If you don't voice your opinion(s), don't expect a fix.
Go over there and post issues like the ones you are mentioning. There are a few FOFC members over there, so don't fret.
Todd
Ben E Lou
04-05-2005, 02:09 PM
A new 50-year sim, with the following sets:,ROOKIES.INI
,Used by Baseball Mogul versions 5.2.6.0 and later
,(All lines beginning with a comma are ignored)
,To adjust the talent level of rookies created at each position, edit the number after each position name.
,To adjust the OVERALL talent level, edit the values for all positions.
,100 is considered 'normal'. Lower numbers reduce talent level at this position and higher numbers raise it.
Pitcher,110
Catcher,99
First Baseman,99
Second Baseman,99
Third Baseman,99
Shortstop,95
Left Fielder,95
Center Fielder,99
Right Fielder,99
Designated Hitter,99
AGES
I did five different check points, just sort of randomly, on player age: 2026, 2032, 2037, 2045, 2054. Here are the overall averages from those checkpoints:
pitchers: 27.58
hitters: 28.67
That's very, very close for hitters, and close enough for me for pitchers, considering the following:
LEAGUE-WIDE STATS
(current season)
NL: .258 avg, .405 slg, 4.19 ERA
AL: .263 avg, .422 slg, 4.29 ERA
PLAYER DEVELOPMENT EXAMPLES
Just picked these three guys at random from the different categories I've looked at...
HOF SLUGGER (660 HR's, 2263 H's, .258 Avg)
Drafted in 2022 at age 19, went straight to MLB
.207-14-48 in 397 AB's at age 19
.227-25-72 and .234-20-57 age 20 and age 21
Began to come into his own at age 22, .253-36-96.
From age 23 to age 34 he was pretty much in his prime, with one off year (.225-32-93) at age 29. Other than that year, from 23-34 his homers ranged from 34-51, and average ranged from .256-.315.
Fractured hip and missed four months at age 35, returned late in year: 152 AB's, .230-12-35
Clearly in decline at age 36: .215-22-52
Pinch hitter at ages 37 and 38. 18 HR's in 311 AB's over those two year, but average around .200.
Retired at age 38.
HOF CONTACT/LEADOFF HITTER (3376 hits, 901 SB's, 0 career HR's :eek: )
Drafted 1(14) in 2035, at age 19
128 AB's in AAA that year, before getting called up to MLB: 296 AB's, .291 avg, 22 SB's
age 20, 124 AB's, 9 SB's
age 21, full-time starter, .267, 63 SB's
age 22 & 23, .294-58 and .301-42
In his prime from 24-34, with one bad year (age 30: .25, 25 SBs, 249 AB's...injured most of year). Other than that year, from age 24-34 ranged from .282-.348--and .282 was the only other year under .315 during that stretch.
Effective player 35-37: .290-37, .277-30, .288-36
Bench player, pinch runner (I assume) at age 38: 94 AB's, 10 SB's, 17 runs.
Retired at age 38.
GOOD PLAYER, NON-HOFer
Drafted 1(14) in 2035 at age 21.
Most of 2035 in A-ball, split 2036 between A and AA, split 2037 between AA and AAA
2038 (age 24), 368 AB's in AAA, then 42 AB's in MLB
age 25, .315-14-90
age 26-27, .288-23-82, .297-24-82
prime age 28-35: homers 27-33, avg. .295-.353
age 36, .282-23-69
at 37, .274-14-59
minimal playing time at 38 and 39
Ben E Lou
04-05-2005, 02:10 PM
And just as I posted the above, I see that Clay posted this a few minutes ago:
<table border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><td bgcolor="#dfdfdf" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top" width="175">Clay Dreslough
Mr. Blog
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Location: Ashford, Connecticut
Posts: 1976
</td> <td bgcolor="#dfdfdf" valign="top" width="100%"> Working on the "giving up" part right now (marginal 30-year-olds with little if any playing time will retire).
Clay
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__________________
Clay Dreslough
Sports Mogul Inc.
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rjolley
04-05-2005, 02:49 PM
One thing that comes to mind as I look over SD's age stats is, when these 18 and 19 year olds debuted, did it make sense to have those kids struggle in the majors instead of play in the minors for a season or so? Someone brought this up earlier, and I didn't want it to be lost. I don't think BBM is set up to determine that by showing rosters from that season, but it would be nice to know.
Thanks for all of your hard work, SD.
st.cronin
04-05-2005, 02:53 PM
IRL there are very few players who STRUGGLE in the majors as teenagers. Even great prospects aren't usually brought to the majors before 20 or 21 unless it's just obvious that they are ready (Alex Rodriguez, for example).
MizzouRah
04-05-2005, 03:43 PM
IRL there are very few players who STRUGGLE in the majors as teenagers. Even great prospects aren't usually brought to the majors before 20 or 21 unless it's just obvious that they are ready (Alex Rodriguez, for example).
Could be a money issue and the primary player is injured? SD will snuff this out.
Todd
Ben E Lou
04-05-2005, 04:10 PM
Could be a money issue and the primary player is injured? SD will snuff this out.
ToddI've got another 100-year test running right now, but I'm not going to fool with it terribly much until the get-rid-of-30-year-olds-who-suck patch is released. I'm guessing that could make a pretty big difference, when all those scrubs aren't blocking the minors.
MizzouRah
04-05-2005, 05:07 PM
I've got another 100-year test running right now, but I'm not going to fool with it terribly much until the get-rid-of-30-year-olds-who-suck patch is released. I'm guessing that could make a pretty big difference, when all those scrubs aren't blocking the minors.
Great, maybe within a day or two.. hopefully. :)
Todd
Buccaneer
04-05-2005, 06:14 PM
I would be interested in seeing how all of this (player age distributions) impact the development of historical players in a historical league.
Galaril
04-06-2005, 10:36 AM
Great data! Just what I was looking for thanks.
Shaun let us know if you are able to make any progress on this with your game. I t's a greta product and glad to see you coming over here to FOFC which is the best place to here from some real knowledgeable sports game simmers(Which I am sure you already know).
Dreslough
04-07-2005, 12:32 AM
OOTP---Mogul----PureSim, it doesn't matter. NONE of them seem to have the first clue when it comes to young players making their debuts at anything resembling the proper time. I downloaded the PureSim demo last night, and let it run 25 seasons overnight.
New Version posted (8.08) with significant work done in this area. Average age in my sims for starting lineup players is down from ~31 to 28.7.
I've also added some new stats to the Roster Dialog like "Debut Age" so you can more easily track this stuff.
And I finally got the Fictional Database feature fully implemented for everyone who's been waiting for it...
Clay
Ben E Lou
04-07-2005, 03:52 AM
New Version posted (8.08) with significant work done in this area. Average age in my sims for starting lineup players is down from ~31 to 28.7.
I've also added some new stats to the Roster Dialog like "Debut Age" so you can more easily track this stuff.
And I finally got the Fictional Database feature fully implemented for everyone who's been waiting for it...
ClayThis is some great wake-up news! Thanks, Clay.
--Ben
Dreslough
04-07-2005, 08:43 AM
Hey SkyDog,
Where do you get your data that the average age of everyday players (350+ AB) should be about 28.7?
If you look at all players with 350+ AB in 2004, the average age is 29.93.
Modelling baseball into the future, it seems like 2004 is a pretty good year to try to match. If anything, players are going to get a bit older on average.
Ben E Lou
04-07-2005, 08:49 AM
Hey SkyDog,
Where do you get your data that the average age of everyday players (350+ AB) should be about 28.7?That was from a study done from 1980-2003. You're right in that it has increased over time. (For the entire period 1900-2003, I think it was around 28.2 or so.) I'll check a five-year average (2000-2004). That would probably be the best check-in, woudn't it?
Ben E Lou
04-07-2005, 08:56 AM
Found some overall numbers pretty quickly. Here are two key numbers for you:
AVERAGE AGE AT MLB DEBUT OF POSITION PLAYERS, 2000-2004: 24.57
AVERAGE AGE OF ALL POSITION PLAYERS COMING TO BAT IN MLB, 2000-2004: 29.36
Ben E Lou
04-07-2005, 08:57 AM
Still checking for a relatively easy way to find the 2000-2004 everyday player average ages...
Ben E Lou
04-07-2005, 08:59 AM
Bingo. Found it. This should take more than a few minutes now...
Ben E Lou
04-07-2005, 09:07 AM
Clay,
If you're still here, check your data. I just did AL 2004, and it came out to 29.03. That's much closer to the 1980-2003 figure than the number you posted...
MizzouRah
04-07-2005, 09:13 AM
New Version posted (8.08) with significant work done in this area. Average age in my sims for starting lineup players is down from ~31 to 28.7.
I've also added some new stats to the Roster Dialog like "Debut Age" so you can more easily track this stuff.
And I finally got the Fictional Database feature fully implemented for everyone who's been waiting for it...
Clay
Great news! I think I might actually start my career tonight. Really like the "Debut Age" addition.
Todd
Galaril
04-07-2005, 09:50 AM
Great news! I think I might actually start my career tonight. Really like the "Debut Age" addition.
Todd
Mizz,
Htae to be the bear of bad news but I just read at BM board that SkyDog is reporting that now te AI is discarding players to minors or retiring to early. So, now we got the opposite problem it oumnd slike. But not to worry SkyDog is still trying to help clay with tis and I am confident they can eventually fix this.
Quote from BM board fro today by SkyDog:
Well, average age has improved tremendously, and is pretty much dead-on. However, mid-to-late 30's players are getting sacrficed on the altar of youth far more often than IRL. In my current season, no player above age 34 had as many as 400 AB's, and no player over 35 had as many as 300. Pitchers are more troubling. Only five pitchers aged 35 and up threw 50 IP or more (none more 100), and only ONE pitcher 33 and up had 162 IP. It looks like everyone is aging WAY too fast, and pitchers are making their debuts too early. Average age of hitters is very good, so it sounds like in order to make this more realistic, the best players should be contributing longer (or maybe have longer peak years...I noticed the change to 25-->30 in this patch), and a few more young players should be playing every day to balance that out.
Ben E Lou
04-07-2005, 09:59 AM
NL2004: 29.50
NL2003: 29.58
NL2002: 29.31
NL2001: 29.24
NL2000: 28.97
NL AVERAGE: 29.32
AL2004: 29.03
AL2003: 28.39
AL2002: 28.98
AL2001: 28.93
AL2000: 29.17
AL AVERAGE: 28.90
I think it is worth noting that the numbers fluctuate a good bit. The AL was actually younger in 2004 than it was is 2000, so I don't think an increase over time would be good. Based on these numbers, I'd consider shooting for the 29.0-29.2 range. (EDIT: which means we should be calculating it on October 1st as 29.25-29.45.)
Ben E Lou
04-07-2005, 11:23 AM
If you look at all players with 350+ AB in 2004, the average age is 29.93.No need to re-check your data. I now have a pretty strong idea where you got that number...and the flaw in the process. If you output from BM, usign the Team-->Rosters screen, that's the number you get. The problem is this: those age figures are based on April 1st, 2005, not 2004. That number is going to be approximately 3/4 year too high. Btw, though, Mogul numbers *should* be .25 years higher than the Baseball Reference fiegures I posted, because BR uses end-of-year stats, but bases age on July 1st age. When I calculate it in Mogul, I'm calculating it at the end of the regular season--usually right around October 1st.
MizzouRah
04-07-2005, 11:32 AM
Oh well, it looks positive at least. SD is getting there with his studies and has Clay's attention.
Todd
Dreslough
04-07-2005, 01:00 PM
No need to re-check your data. I now have a pretty strong idea where you got that number...and the flaw in the process. If you output from BM, usign the Team-->Rosters screen, that's the number you get. The problem is this: those age figures are based on April 1st, 2005, not 2004. That number is going to be approximately 3/4 year too high. Btw, though, Mogul numbers *should* be .25 years higher than the Baseball Reference fiegures I posted, because BR uses end-of-year stats, but bases age on July 1st age. When I calculate it in Mogul, I'm calculating it at the end of the regular season--usually right around October 1st.
Good point. I just simmed 35 years in Mogul and got an average age, on April 1, 2041, of 29.71, for all players with 350+ AB in 2040.
When I do the same in 2005, I get 29.93 (for actual player data from 2004).
So the averages pretty much match. I see how this is higher than your data, but with this comparison I'm comparing apples to apples so I think we've got the average pretty good.
The flaw I see (that you pointed out) is only 14 of those players are 35 or older (compared to 30 such players in 2004) so I'll work on that part.
Clay
Ben E Lou
04-07-2005, 01:05 PM
Good point. I just simmed 35 years in Mogul and got an average age, on April 1, 2041, of 29.71, for all players with 350+ AB in 2040.
When I do the same in 2005, I get 29.93 (for actual player data from 2004).Duh. That makes a lot more sense than what I was doing. (Simming multiple seasons and having to click in and stop it on October 1st.)
Looking forward to the update on this. Thanks for your dedication to getting this right!
Galaril
04-07-2005, 01:18 PM
Duh. That makes a lot more sense than what I was doing. (Simming multiple seasons and having to click in and stop it on October 1st.)
Looking forward to the update on this. Thanks for your dedication to getting this right!
Ditto on the dedication on this.Good work Clay and SD.
Ben E Lou
04-08-2005, 12:57 PM
Version 8.09:
Stat discrepancies fixed with "Fictional Players" option
Fixed contract lengths with "Fictional Players" option
Player aging algorithms and AI adjusted
Find Players no longer shows Hall Of Fame players during Fantasy Draft
Some small text bugs fixed
Anyone heard any news from Shaun?
rjolley
04-08-2005, 03:29 PM
Nope, nothing mentioned on his board. I posted a question asking about it.
Shaun Sullivan
04-09-2005, 04:55 AM
Sorry guys been busy at my real job during the week.
I'll have another look this weekend.
OldGiants
04-10-2005, 10:22 AM
dola
Kranepool had 279 at bats and hit just .209. This was the 1963 NY Mets, so I'm not sure that even counts.
According to Casey, "The Youth of America."
The following spring, reporters asked him about the Mets two 19-year old phenoms, Ed Kranepool and Greg Goossen.
Casey said, "In ten years Mr. Kranepool has a very good chance to be a star. In ten years, Mr. Goossen has a very good chance to be 29."
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